Wednesday was about what we (or at least I) had expected.  SPY opened up 0.09%, DIA opened up 0.05%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%.  From there, all three major index ETFs immediately crossed back below the prior close before grinding sideways in a tight range for two hours.  Then we saw a modest selloff followed by a modest rally back to the same level waiting on the Fed. At 2 p.m. we had a 5-minute rip upward and volatility followed by a drift higher into Chair Powell’s presser at 2:30 p.m.  After Powell started, we sold off the rest of the day. This action gave us black-bodied, Inverted Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and DIA printed new all-time highs, while QQQ again retested and closed below its downtrend line running back to Mid-July.  None of the three retested or crossed below their T-line (8ema).  This all happened on slightly below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red, with Utilities (-0.60%) out in front of the others leading the market lower. On the other side, Healthcare (-0.03%), Financial Services (-0.05%), Communications Services (-0.09%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.09%) were all clustered as laggards. Meanwhile, SPY fell 0.30%, DIA lost 0.26%, and QQQ lost 0.43%.  VXX fell 0.83% to close at 49.88 and T2122 fell slightly again but remains in the middle of its over-bought range at 87.50. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields actually gained to close at 3.704% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.55% to close at $70.09 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was all about the Fed.  the Bulls get their new all-time highs in the large-cap indexes.  However, then traders took profits, afraid to hold too much long risk going into tomorrow’s Fed decision, statement, and press conference.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include August Building Permits, which were stronger than expected at 1.475 million (compared to the 1.410 million forecast and a 1.406 million July reading).  At the same time, August Housing Starts were strongly higher at 1.356 million (versus a 1.310 million forecast and 1.237 million July value).  This was a 9.6% month-on-month increase.  Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger than anticipated inventory drawdown at -1.630 million barrels (compared to a -0.200 million barrels forecast and the prior week’s +0.833-million-barrel inventory build). Then, at the close, July TIC Net Long-Term Transactions indicated a net inflow of $135.4 billion. 

However, the big news of the day came from the FOMC.   At 2 p.m. Fed announced a half-percent rate cut (down to the 4.75%-5.00% range) for Fed Funds.  At the same time the Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection was down to 4.4% (down from 5.1%).  For the 1^st-Year Out Q3 Interest Rate Projection (2025) the average estimate is now 3.4% (down from the prior 4.1%).  Meanwhile, the 2^nd-Year (2026) Q3 Interest Rate Projection is now 2.9% (down from 3.1%). At the same time, the 3^rd-Year (2027) Q3 Interest Rate Projection remained steady at 2.9% (from the previous 2.9% forecast). The Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection was also 2.9% (which was up a tick from the previous average forecast of 2.8%). 

In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he does not see the risk of economic downturn as heightened.  He said, “I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated.”  He continued, “You see growth at a solid rate. You see inflation coming down. You see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels. So, I don’t really see that now.”  Powell said that there was “broad support” for Wednesday’s half-point cut. However, Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) dissented, instead calling for a quarter-point cut.  Looking forward, at the moment, the Dot Plots indicate two (of 19) board members feel there should be no more cuts in 2024.  At the same time, seven of the 19 think one additional quarter point cut will be appropriate.  However, the median view is that two more quarter-point cuts will be needed in 2024.  On the other end, one of the 19 feels more than half a percent of additional cut in 2024 will be appropriate.

After the close, SCS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Wednesday, GM reached a tentative deal with Unifor (the Canadian version of the UAW union) over its Ontario, Canada plant.  At the same time, a day after the Dept. of Justice approved the deal, ALK completed the $1.9 billion acquisition of HA.  Later, BA began furloughing thousands of workers via a one week off every four weeks scheme.  BA announced this will last for the duration of the strike by 33k of its workers in the Pacific Northwest.  At the same time, the UAW announced it is considering multiple US strikes against STLA for breaking the contract promises it made a year ago.  (The six-week strike a year ago cost the company $834 million.) Later, ROG announce it will buy a controlling stake in the Toronto Raptor’s NBA team and NHL’s Toronto Maple Leafs from BCE for $3.46 billion. 

Elsewhere, the UAW said that they have set a September 26 strike deadline for the F River Rouge complex near Dearborn MI.  500 of the complex’s 6,000 workers would participate if a strike takes place.  Later, AMZN announced it is raising the pay of its fulfillment and transportation employees by at least $1.50 per hour (and giving them a free Amazon Prime membership) as the company fights unionization and internal pressure for better pay and conditions. At the same time, GM announced it is offering adapters to its electric vehicle owners that would allow them to use the TSLA network of chargers. Finally, TUP did file for bankruptcy Wednesday as was rumored earlier in the week.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, GSK announced it has agreed to settle two lawsuits in CA that had claimed its discontinued Zantac heartburn drug caused cancer.  (No financial details were released.)  Later, the CEO of GME (Cohen) agreed to pay a $1 million penalty to the FTC for failing to disclose that he purchased $100 million of voting shares in WFC in 2018.  (He did so not as an investment, but as a way to influence WFC operations and in pursuit of a board seat.)  At the same time, GOOGL won a legal challenge against a $1.7 billion fine from EU antitrust regulators.  The court agreed with the regulator, but threw out the fine.  The antitrust commission can appeal. 

Meanwhile, a separate ruling announced at the same time, went against QCOM as it got the court to trim the fine from $269.07 million to $265.40 million.  Later, GOOGL asked a UK tribunal to throw out a $9.3 billion lawsuit alleging the company abused its dominance in the online search market.  Back in the US, OCFC agreed to pay a $15.1 million settlement for “redlining” via loan discrimination against Black, Hispanic, and Asian loan applicants between 2018 and 2022.  At the same time, a second “Zantac trial,” this one against private German firm Boehringer Ingelheim rather than partners GSK, PFE, or SNY ended in a hung jury.  Later, FHN agreed to pay $325k to settle SEC charges in relation to the bank’s recommendations of certain products.

In government funding news, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson brought a six-month government funding extension (continuing resolution) including a completely unrelated MAGA voting restriction rider to a vote.  (As instructed and demanded by the GOP’s disgraced Presidential candidate.)  It failed by a vote of 202-220, as 14 GOP members voted against the ridiculous electioneering stunt.  (The main point of the amendment is requiring people to prove their citizenship before voting. This is stupid since it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote and there are only a miniscule number of such cases ever found. This plan would also not even take effect this election cycle as the GOP imply and would like the public to believe. So, it’s an expensive, unfunded, and difficult to implement solution to a non-problem that would not be implemented when the GOP wrongly claims it is needed. In other words, the GOP is happy to risk the economic impact and disruption of government shutdown for yet another attempt to whip up fear and “other” the groups the GOP sees as “they.”)  Even more silly is the fact that the whole bill would be dead on arrival in the Senate. Unfortunately, Johnson and other GOP Congressmen then told reporters that the Republicans have no “Plan B” for government funding.  So, this does increase the probability of a government shutdown on October 1. 

In miscellaneous news, the SEC unanimously (5-0) voted to approve a rule change to allow exchanges to price stocks in half penny increments.  There is no word on when such a change might be implemented.  However, NDAQ immediately said it would study the matter, but that it would hurt stock markets in the long run (for unspecified reasons).  Elsewhere, the US has sued the owner and operator of the Singapore-flagged ship that hit the Baltimore bridge earlier this year, killing six and causing massive damage. The Dept. of Justice is seeking more than $100 million (just for costs incurred in the recovery, expect other suits to cover rebuilding and economic damages) and are alleging the company cut corners on maintenance to save costs, causing the crash.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Japan (+2.13%), Hong Kong (+2.00%), and Taiwan (+1.68%) led the region higher on the day.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the minor exception of Portugal (-0.31%) we see the same green picture at midday.  The CAC (+2.01%), DAX (+1.52%), and FTSE (+1.20%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +1.13% open, the SPY is implying a +1.62% open, and the QQQ implies a +2.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.713% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.75% to $71.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Existing Home Sales and August US Leading Economic Index (both at 10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is CBRL, DRI, and FDS.  Then, after the close, FDX, LEN, and MLKN report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks. In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, FDS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DRI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (CBRL is scheduled to report at 8 a.m.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are running this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start to premarket and have printed larger, white-body candles since then in the early session. SPY and DIA are sitting at new all-time highs again in the premarket. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard gapping well over its downtrend line going back to July. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines, but they are starting to get close in the early session today. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is still in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are strongly green so far this morning. AMD (+334%), NVDA (+3.15%), and TSLA (+3.00%) lead the gains while NVDA and TSLA lead the dollar-volume traded as usual. NFLX (+1.52%) is the “laggard” among those 10 bellwethers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw the Bulls go get their new all-time highs and then the Bears fade those gains.  SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ gapped up 0.63%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs chopped and then rallied to new highs by mid-morning.  Having achieved new all-time highs in SPY and DIA as well as breaking the downtrend line in the QQQ, then the Bears took over to drive the market to lows by early afternoon.  From there, all three chopped sideways between their lows and the previous close for the rest of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive, Spinning Top type candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY printed a new all-time high and had a gain for the day, but closed slightly below an all-time high close. The DIA did the same, except for closing seven cents below Monday’s close.  At the same time, QQQ gapped up and retested its downtrend line reaching back to the all-time high in July.  However, it closed back below that line.  This happened on less than average volume.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green again, with Energy (+1.07%) out in front of the others leading the market higher. On the other side, Communications Services (-0.99%) lagged behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY increased 0.04%, DIA lost 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.05%. VXX gained 2.15% to close at 50.30% and T2122 fell slightly again but remains in the top half of its over-bought range at 92.34. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields gained to close at 3.644% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.75% to close at $71.32 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw the Bulls get their new all-time highs in the large-cap indexes.  However, then traders took profits, afraid to hold too much long risk going into tomorrow’s Fed decision, statement, and press conference.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the August Month-to-Month Core Retail Sales, which were lower than expected at +0.1% (versus a forecast of +0.2% and the July reading of +0.4%).  On the headline number, August Month-to-Month Retail Sales were stronger than expected at +0.1% (compared to a forecast of -0.2% but down a full percent from July’s +1.1%).  Later, the August Month-on-Month Industrial Production was much stronger than anticipated at +0.8% (versus a +0.2% forecast and far better than July’s -0.9% value).  For the annual number August Year-on-Year Industrial Production was improved at +0.04% versus July’s -0.74% reading.  Meanwhile, July Month-on-Month Business Inventories grew by 0.4% (compared to a forecast and June value of +0.3%).  On the store front side, July Retail Inventories came in as anticipated at +0.5% (versus the +0.5% forecast and up from June’s +0.3% reading).  Then, after the close, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks showed an inventory build of 1.960 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 0.100 million barrels and the prior week’s 2.790-million-barrel drawdown).

In stock news, on Tuesday, BA and union negotiators resume contract talks as the strike against the company continues.  (Analysts report the strike is costing BA $100 million per day in lost sales revenue.)  At the same time, PM announced it would sell its Vectura Group (asthma inhaler maker) to Molex Asia for $198 million.  Later, WMT said it will raise the pay of 100k “Sam’s Club” workers in November.  The entry-level pay will go from $15/hr. to $16/hr.  (This was part of a labor deal struck three years ago.) At the same time, META announced effective immediately it has rolled out “teen accounts” for its Instagram platform, which automatically puts those under age 18 in an account with extra privacy features and parental controls.  Separately, META announced it had banned Russian state media RT for “foreign election interference.”  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that JPM is in talks with AAPL about taking over the tech giant’s credit card business from GS. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that ARKO is planning to sell its convenience store operations (1,500 stores) for around $2 billion.  (This is a reversal of company strategy and would leave it with a fuel distribution unit that serves 1,800 independent gas stations and 300 unmanned fueling sites.)  Later, Nippon Steel’s CEO (who travelled to Washington to lobby for the deal) told reporters he is now confident the deal to acquire X will be approved “on the merits.”  At the same time, MSFT and BLK announced they plan to launch a $100 billion fund to invest in AI infrastructure to build data centers and fund energy projects.  Later, after the close, BLNK announced it will lay off 14% of its global workforce (about 100 jobs) by the end of Q1 2025 in a cost-cutting program.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, CI-owned Express Scripts sued the FTC, alleging the agency’s recent report stating that prescription middlemen raise the cost of drugs is defamatory.  They asked the federal judge to force the rescinding of the report and the recusal of FTC Chair Lina Khan from any decisions involving CI.  The FTC said it plans to fight the lawsuit, saying it stands by its report and that three companies (CI, UNH, and CVS) control more than 80% of the pharmacy benefit manager market.  At the same time, testimony in the case of the FTC seeking to block KR’s $25 billion acquisition of ACI ended Tuesday.  However, a separate trial brought by the WA state Attorney General seeking to block the deal is just in its second day and a second separate trial brought by the Attorney General of CO will begin in Denver on September 30. (The two companies claim to have spent nearly $900 million trying to fight the three cases so far this year.) 

Meanwhile, the CFPB published legal guidance intended to stop banks from charging overdraft fees when consumers had not genuinely consented to the practice. (This is often done via “phantom opt-in” agreements buried in fintech (i.e. websites and ATMs). Later, T agreed to pay $13 million to resolve investigations into the data breach of the cloud vendor in January 2023.  (The breach exposed the information of 8.9 million T customers.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice said it would allow the ALK $1.9 billion acquisition of HA after the airlines agreed to maintain Hawaiian routes, protect frequent flyer rewards, etc.  Later, the Dept. of Energy announced it is accepting bids for 6 million barrels of oil for refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amidst low oil prices.  After the close, LUNR announced it had been awarded a $4.82 billion contract by NASA for navigation and communications services in the “near space” region.

In other news, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety announced the results of a month-long study of TSLA’s Autopilot and VLVLY (Volvo) Pilot Assist partial driving automation systems.  The study found that drivers were more likely to be distracted when using these driver assistance systems.  In fact, it found they were distracted 30% of the time because the driver had been trained that they could focus attention on other matters and only need to nudge the wheel every three seconds to avoid escalation.  (It is worth noting that the studied only covered 43 drivers.  So, automakers might argue that the sample size is too small.  However, 30% is a huge number and this may well end up meaning additional costs added to carmakers in the form of tools that guard against driver abuse of “assistance.”)

In look-ahead news, the Fedwatch tool has shown a growing number of traders are betting on a half percent rate cut today.  One months ago, only 25% or interest rate futures bets were for a 50 basis-point cut.  One week ago, that had risen to 34%.  On Monday that had risen to 62%.  Finally, Tuesday night the implied probabilities from interest rate futures trades showed a 63% chance of a half percent cut versus 37% for a quarter percent cut.  (There is absolutely no trades expecting a rate hike, no cut, or a bigger than half percent reduction.)

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Hong Kong (+1.37%) was by far the biggest winner while Taiwan (-0.78%) and New Zealand (-0.67%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.45%), DAX (-0.11%), and FTSE (-0.66%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.668% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.32% to $70.25 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include August Building Permits and August Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, and FOMC Economic Growth Projections (all at 2 p.m.), Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.), and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.)  The only major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is GIS.  Then, after the close is SCS reports.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, GIS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, it looks as if markets are slightly bullish in the premarket. The three major index ETFs opened modestly higher and are giving us small, white-bodied candles inside Tuesday’s black Spinning Top. QQQ looks like it wants to retest that downtrend line going back to the all-time high in mid-July. At the same time, SPY and DIA are close enough to make another run at their all-time highs again. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed (barely) with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line while the others chase clean air at their highs. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines yet. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green so far this morning. GOOGL (+0.89%) leads the gains. Meanwhile, NVDA (+0.17%) and TSLA (+0.30%) lead, as usual, in the dollar-volume traded.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were a bit divergent, but mostly sideways on Monday.  SPY opened 0.04% lower, DIA gapped up 0.35%, and QQQ gapped down 0.44%.  After that star, all three major index ETFs were more volatile during the first hour, but then ground their way to the side the rest of the day.  This action gave is indecisive candles with DIA and SPY on the upside and QQQ down.  SPY printed a white-bodied, Hanging Man type candle sitting very near the August highs and even the all-time highs from July.  At the same time, DIA gave us a white-body, Spinning Top, candle that printed both a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. Meanwhile, QQQ printed a long-legged Doji Harami type, perhaps indicating it had failed the downtrend line Friday. This happened on below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green again, with Energy (+1.28%) out in front of the others leading the market higher. On the other side, Consumer Cyclical (+0.16%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY increased 0.15%, DIA added 0.59%, and QQQ fell 0.44%. VXX gained just less than one percent to close at 49.24% and T2122 fell slightly but remains in the top of its over-bought range at 94.93.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.621% while Oil (WTI) gained 2.65% to close at $70.47 per barrel.  So, on Monday the Bulls got their new all-time high in DIA.  However, for the most part, it was a “wait and see” day as traders look forward to the Fed rate decision and Chairman’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday was the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in quite a bit stronger than expected at 11.50 (compared to a forecast of -4.10 and the August reading of -4.70).  This was the sixth straight month of increases in this indicator of manufacturing strength. 

In stock news, on Monday, BA announced a hiring freeze, paused all non-essential staff travel, and are considering temporary layoffs according to CNBC.  This comes after the union leader for the 33k striking BA workers said he thinks “the work stoppage will drag on for some time.”  At the same time, the Teamsters Union announced that hundreds of AMZN delivery drivers in NY have joined the union.  Later, TGT announced it will hire 100k season employees this year (in-line with the last three years).  In addition, TGT announced it start its holiday promotions early, on October 6.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CG is reviving its plan to IPO its Nouryon chemical business.  Later, AMZN CEO Jassy announced he intends to streamline the company, eliminating management layers with a goal of increasing the employee to manager ratio by 15%.  He also announced AMZN will require its employees to return to the office five days per week. During a subsequent Q/A session, Jassy also said that AMZN is eliminating a program that let employees work from anywhere for up to four months per year.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that BX and Vista Equity Partners are in advanced talks and near a deal to acquire SMAR for roughly $8 billion ($56/share).  At the same time, an ET natural gas liquids pipeline in La Porte, TX caught fire, knocking out power to nearly 1,000 homes and businesses in the area.  After the close, INTC said it plans to set up its Foundry Services unit as an independent subsidiary. (Many traders see this as a potential pre-cursor to INTC potentially spinning off the unit based on recent comments by CEO Gelsinger that INTC is open to considering the sale of some units.) Separately, INTC announced a multi-year, multi-billion per year, deal with AMZN to co-invest in custom chip designs for use in AMZN’s AWS cloud computing services.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that TUP is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week.  At the same time, MSFT approved a new $60 billion share buyback program and declared a $0.83 Q3 dividend (which is a 10% increase over Q2’s dividend).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Reuters reported that forty of the world’s leading banks have joined the G-7 pilot digital currency project run by the New York Fed.  This list includes JPM, HSBC, UBS, and MUFG.  Later, INTC was awarded up to $3 billion to develop a “Secure Enclave” (which are critical component chips used across a variety of weapons and national security products).  At the same time, a US District Appeals Court ruled in favor of XOM, CVX, DVN, ET, OXY, PSX, and CLR by ruling against an appeal made by two dozen consumers of their 2020 lawsuit.  The court said there was a lack of proof of the companies’ collusion with Russia and Saudia Arabia to cut oil production to keep oil prices higher. Later, an OR state judge threw out a $260 million jury verdict against JNJ related to the company’s talc (which contained asbestos) causing a woman’s mesothelioma. The judge ordered a new trial, saying the plaintiff’s lawyers had committed “egregious errors.”  After the close, the UAW union filed unfair labor practices charges with the NRLB against STLA.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the US offshore energy regulator announced that 20% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production and 28% of its natural gas output in the area remain offline following Hurricane Francine.  Elsewhere, interest rate futures indicated that more traders are expecting a 50-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. Probabilities of a half percent cut increased from 30% a week ago, to 50% on Sunday to 62% after the close Monday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Hong Kong (+1.34%) led eight gaining exchanges higher while Japan (-1.03%) and Shenzhen (-0.88%) led four lower.  The picture is even more green in Europe as 12 of the 14 bourses are above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+0.57%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.61%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.61% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $70.16 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Core Retail Sales and August Retail Sales (both at 8:30 a.m.), August Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), July Business Inventories and July Retail Inventories (10 a.m.), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close is FERG prior to the open.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, FOMC Economic Growth Projections, Fed Chair Press Conference, and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, GIS and SCS report.  On Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, FERG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  FERG also raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if markets are bullish again in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened higher (with QQQ providing the biggest gap up) and have traded modestly bullish from that open. DIA is sitting at another all-time high, SPY is retesting its own all-time high, meanwhile QQQ is back up to retest its mid-term downtrend line stretching back to early-July. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed (barely) with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line while the others chase clean air at their highs. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines yet. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the top end of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green so far this morning. INTC (+7.13%) is far and away the percentage gainer on the news of the split out of its Foundry business. Meanwhile, NVDA (+0.71%) is, as always, the dollar-volume leader. Only AAPL (-0.17%) lags among the big dogs.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a bullish but mostly sideways day in the market.  SPY opened up 0.12%, DIA opened 0.15% higher, and QQQ opened 0.17% lower. At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied all morning, with DIA reaching the high of the day at noon, SPY hitting its high at 1:40 p.m., and QQQ reaching the high of day at 1:55 p.m. From there, all three went on a modest, undulating selloff the rest of the day.  This gave us white-body candles with upper wicks.  SPY gapped up for its fifth-straight gain on well-below average volume. Meanwhile, DIA gapped up for a third-straight gain and a backing off from the all-time high retest and did this on above-average volume.  At the same time, QQQ gapped down, but closed higher for the fifth-consecutive time and closed just down from its downtrend line going back to the all-time high in early July.  QQQ did this on below-average volume.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green again, with Basic Materials (+1.63%) and Utilities (+1.61%) well out in front leading the market higher. On the other side, Energy (+0.70%), Communications Services (+0.77%), and Consumer Defensive (+0.78%) were the laggard sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.52%, DIA gained 0.72%, and QQQ gained 0.45%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 48.79% and T2122 jumped higher into the top of its over-bought range at 95.09.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.657% while Oil (WTI) gained 0.39% to close at $69.24 per barrel.  So, on Friday saw a strong week come to an end on another positive note.  For the week, SPY gained 4.01%, QQQ gained 5.94%, and DIA “lagged” while gaining 2.59%.  (This was collectively the best week in the market of 2024.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the August Export Price Index, which came in much lower than expected at -0.7% (compared to a -0.1% forecast and July’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, the August Import Price Index was also lower than anticipated at -0.3% (versus a -0.2% forecast and well below the July +0.1% value).  Later, Preliminary September Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported at 69.0 (above the 68.3 forecast and 67.9 August number).  At the same time, Preliminary September Michigan Consumer Expectations also came in above the predictions at 73.0 (versus the 71.0 forecast and 72.1 August value).  On the future outlook front, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were reported down at 2.7% (less than the 2.8% forecast and August reading).  However, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up to 3.1% (compared to a forecast and August reading of 3.0%).

In stock news, on Friday, UBER announced an expansion of its partnership with GOOGL’s Waymo self-driving taxi unit.  The partnership will bring automated ride hailing to Austin TX and Atlanta GA in early 2025.  At the same time, Danish DSDVF announced it had agreed to acquire German logistics firm Schenker for $15.85 billion.  Later, Bloomberg reported that DBRG is considering the sale of its Southeast Asian unit (EdgePoint Infrastructure) for roughly $4 billion.  At the same time, BCSF (Bain Capital) has hired advisers to help in the sale of its British home and car insurer Esure for roughly $1.31 billion).  Later, the CFO of BA told reporters the company is eager to return to talks after a strike of 33k workers at its Pacific Northwest plants have shut down production of the company’s best-selling 737 MAX jets.  He went on to say the strike now puts delivery targets for 737 MAX planes in jeopardy and will have a financial impact unless settled quickly. 

Separately both MCO and Fitch announced they will reduce their credit ratings on BA to “junk status” unless the strike ends quickly. However, no exact definition of “quickly” was provided in either announcement.)  On Saturday, DIS and DirecTV announced they had reached a deal that allowed the latter to resume broadcast of ESPN and DIS’s other channels to DirecTV’s 11 million customers after a two-week shutdown.  (DirecTV appears to have gotten what they wanted from the negotiation.  Specifically, that was the ability to offer DIS channels on an “ala carte” and “skinny package” basis to its customers…as opposed to DIS requiring “all or nothing” offerings of its channels.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that T is again in talks with SATS over the merger of their Dish and DirecTV companies.  (The initial merger attempt was blocked by the US Justice Dept. in 2002 over anti-trust concerns. However, the entertainment market has obviously changed dramatically since then with streaming and cable market growth.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the Washington Post reported that the White House has signaled a delay in making a decision on the Nippon Steel buyout of X. The news comes after Nippon Steel executives flew to Washington to lobby for the deal and the two companies sent a letter to the President urging him to approve the deal or delay the decision until after elections (despite other resistance from both political parties and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US opposing the deal).  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that sources tell it that EU antitrust officials are considering exactly what practices GOOGL will be ordered to end.  However, they will not order the breakup of GOOGL (separating ad technology business from the ad sales unit).  Meanwhile, a DE judge overruled a Newsmax (planning to IPO in late 2024) motion and ruled the company must face trial for its defamation of Smartmatic (as part of a campaign in support of the disgraced former President’s election lies).

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the EU is planning a final vote on raising tariffs on Chinese EVs on September 25.  Later, the State Dept. approved the sale of $7.2 billion of LMT F-35 fighter jets to Romania.  Later, the US EPA said it has found that ADM violated federal safe drinking water laws as well as the company’s underground injection permit with leaks at its carbon sequestration facility in IL.  At the same time, IEP won the dismissal of a lawsuit alleging the company artificially inflated its share price by issuing “unsustainably high dividends.”  Later, after the close, the Dept. of Justice announced WBA had agreed to pay $106.8 million to settle charges it fraudulently billed the US government (Medicare / Medicaid) for prescriptions it never filled. Alsos after the close, Bloomberg reported that INTC has officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make chips for the Dept. of Defense. Saturday, HD agreed to pay $1.98 million to CA for over-charging CA consumers via “checkout scanner violations” where checkout scanners charged higher prices than were listed on the item or shelf.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, China announced it will raise its retirement age for the first time since 1978.  The Chinese male retirement age will go from 60 to 63 while women’s retirement will be pushed from 50 to 55.  For women in management jobs the increase goes from 58 instead of 55. However, the Chinese government will implement these changes slowly to avoid public unrest.  (This seems to be the country’s first real public acknowledgement, without saying it out loud, of the country’s demographic crisis.)  Elsewhere, on Saturday, China’s Commerce Minister announced that foreign direct investment in China, covering January through August, had fallen 31.5% year-on-year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Malaysia (+0.84%) and Thailand (+0.78%) led the gainers while New Zealand (-1.00%) and Shenzhen (-0.88%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with six of the 15 bourses under water at midday.  The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (-0.26%), and FTSE (-0.04%) in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a flat +0.03% open, and QQQ implies a -0.19% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.646% and Oil (WTI) is up almost half a percent to $68.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.).  here are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get August Core Retail Sales, August Retail Sales, August Industrial Production, July Business Inventories, July Retail Inventories, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, FOMC Economic Growth Projections, Fed Chair Press Conference, and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from FERG.  Then Wednesday, GIS and SCS report.  On Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

In overnight news, according to Bloomberg the Dollar fell to its lowest level in nine months, with the move driven by a strong Yen, which reached a 14-month high.  Most of these machinations come from speculation on not only the Fed but other central bank rate decisions due this week.  Speaking of anticipated central bank decisions, the Fedwatch tool tells us the futures trader positions indicate a 59% probability of a half percent Fed rate cut Wednesday while a quarter-point cut has a 41% chance.  This is a 30% shift toward half point in the last week.  However, those probabilities are volatile, with 15%-20% moves in a day recently.  Finally, PFE published mid-stage trial results in the New England Journal of Medicine which say its experimental cancer treatment ponsegromab has shown positive results treating the weight loss (loss of appetite) that is caused by the cancer.  (That condition, cachexia, impacts 9 million people worldwide and results in 80% of them dying within one year due to the inability to withstand the actual cancer treatments.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided early in the premarket. DIA opened slightly higher and has put in a white-body candle with almost no wick as it moves to retest its all-time high in the early session. However, SPY opened down modestly and has printed an indecisive Doji candle in the Premarket. At the same time, QQQ opened flat but has printed a black-body candle with little wick as it is working on a Bear Harami candle at this point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the top end of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears has a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are split evenly between gainers and losers early, but the dollar-volume trading leaders are in the red, led by NVDA (-1.60%), AAPL (-2.34%), and TSLA (-0.03%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday gave us another bullish day with much less whiplash than Wednesday. SPY opened 0.11% higher, DIA opened up 0.12%, and QQQ opened up just 0.07% higher.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways for the morning before starting a midday rally that took us to the highs of the day at about 2 p.m.  At that point, SPY and DIA ground sideways in a tight range and QQQ had a 15-minute selloff at 2:45 p.m. before following the others sideways in the same tight range. This action gave us white-bodied candles with lower wicks in all three.  SPY and DIA both retested their T-line (8ema) and 17ema before rebounding to close at the top of the candle. For its part, QQQ crossed back above its 50sma.  This all happened on below-average volume for all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green, with Basic Materials (+1.82%) well out in front leading the market higher. On the other side, Healthcare (+0.30%) lagged behind the other sectors. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.84%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ gained 0.98%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 48.94% and T2122 jumped back up into the middle of its over-bought range at 88.54.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.685% while Oil (WTI) jumped up another 2.79% to close at $69.19 per barrel.  So, on Thursday saw the fourth-straight day of gained in SPY and QQQ (also a second-straight for DIA).  It was big tech names NVDA (+1.91%), TSLA (+0.74%), AVGO (+3.97%), and META (+2.69%) that drove the SPY and QQQ on dollar-volume.   

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit higher at 230k (compared to a forecast of 227k and prior week value of 228k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up a bit as anticipated at 1,850k (in-line with the 1,850k forecast and up from the prior week 1,845k reading).  At the same time, August Month-on-Month Core PPI was up to +0.3% (versus the +0.2% forecast but well up from July’s -0.2%).  On the headline number, August Month-on-Month PPI was also up to +0.2% (compared to a +0.1% forecast and July’s 0.0% value).  On the budget front, the August Federal Budget Balance showed a much higher than expected deficit at -$380.0 billion (measured against a forecast of -$285.7 billion and July’s -$244.0 billion reading).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was up $2 billion for the week to $7.115 trillion from last week’s $7.113 trillion.

The WASDE Ag report also came out Thursday.  It reported an increased 2024 corn crop forecast, up 39 million bushels from last month to 15.2 billion bushels.  The silver lining for farmers is that the 55-million-bushel reduction in the beginning inventory number (due to increased usage in ethanol production).  Meanwhile, the Soybean forecast was left unchanged at 4.586 billion bushels. 

After the close, ABDE and RH both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, LLY announced it will invest $1.8 billion to expand its Irish manufacturing operations.  This doubles the company’s investment in those two plants in Ireland.  At the same time, GILD reported the results of a Phase 3 trial showing that its injectable HIV prevention drug reduced infections by 96%. (This is far superior to the existing oral pill prevention treatment.)  Later, GIS announced it has agreed to sell its North American yogurt business to a French company for $2.1 billion.  At the same time, MSFT reported it recovered after an outage of its cloud-based Office365 suite. Later, cable provider CHTR said Thursday that it is adding WBD’s Max and Discovery+ streaming services to its cable packages at no additional charge. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that GM is in talks to buy electric vehicle batteries (built in the US but made using Chinese company CATL’s technology).  The proposed source would be a TTDKY (Japanese company TDK) plant to be located somewhere in the Southeastern US.  Later, AAL flight attendants voted to ratify the new 5-year contract with the airline. At the same time, AMZN announced plans to invest $2.1 billion in its Delivery Service Partners program over the next six years.  This includes an increase in DSP partner compensation of $660 million over the next year.  Later, MA announced it is buying threat intelligence company “Recorded Future” from a private equity firm for $2.65 billion.  At the same time, an SEC filing showed that Berkshire Hathaway’s Insurance unit leader (Ajit Jain) sold more than half of his BRKA stock on September 9th.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced it has opened a preliminary investigation into VFS (Vietnam’s VinFast electric car maker) on reports of the company’s “Lane Assist” system malfunctioning.  At the same time, a Philly Court jury ruled in favor of BAYRY (Bayer) in a lawsuit alleging the company’s Roundup weed killer caused a plaintiff’s cancer.  Later, the FDA approved the first over-the-counter hearing aid software that is intended to be used with AAPL’s AirPod Pro headphones.  At the same time, NAVI accepted a CFPB-imposed ban on servicing federal student loans, as well as the $120 million settlement ($100 million in restitution and a $20 million fine).  This action was taken over NAVI steering borrowers to delay repayment rather than taking the lower-profit repayment plans those borrowers were qualified to get.  Later, Reuters reported that Indian antitrust regulators have found that AMZN and WMT (Flipkart unit) have violated India’s local competition laws by giving preference to selected sellers on their websites.  Specifically, the report said that each of the antitrust charges brought against the companies were found to be true. 

Elsewhere, the Office of the Comptroller of Currency announced it had entered into a formal agreement prohibiting WFC from expanding its product offerings and requiring the bank to submit action plans to fix its anti-money-laundering compliance programs.  (WFC stock was down more than 4% on the news.)  Later, the FAA reported that an ALK jet had to abort takeoff to avoid collision with a LUV jet at Nashville’s airport on Thursday.  An investigation is underway.  At the same time, the Treasury Dept. announced proposed corporate alternative minimum tax rules that would impact 100 large corporations that currently pay an average of 2.6% in taxes (60 of them paying less than 1%).  The proposals will generate about $250 billion over 10 years according to Treasury.  Later, a US Appeals Court threw out a $564 million jury verdict against BMO over its role in a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme.  At the same time, a federal judge overruled a CFTC decision that had prohibited betting on US elections.  So, there will be betting on various election outcomes.  After the close, Reuters reported that OXY will receive up to $500 million in support for its carbon capture facility in south TX.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that more than 340k customers were without power in LA following Hurricane Francine.  Meanwhile, the CDC reported it still has not identified the origin of a human case of bird flu in MO.  (The patient had no known exposure to poultry flocks or dairy herds.)  This was the 14^th human case so far this year requiring hospitalization and the first with unknown origin.  Elsewhere, the SEC announced it is set to vote on new “tick size” rules at a public meeting at 10 a.m. on September 18.  The proposed changes would allow stock pricing in increments of less than a penny.  (The confusing rule would have four different buckets, with some stocks pricing in penny increments, while others trade in half penny, fifth of a penny, of tenth of a penny increments.)

In what is widely seen as a precursor to Fed action next week, the ECB cut rates by a quarter point again (for the second time this year), lowering its deposit rate to 3.50%.  Elsewhere, the Fedwatch tool showed that Feds Fund Futures trades are indicating a increase in the probability of a half percent cut next following the PPI data release.  On Wednesday, there was only a 14% probability of a 50-basis-point cut (the other 86% being on a quarter-point cut).  However, one day later, that percentage more than doubled to 31% probability of a half percent and 69% expecting a quarter percent cut.  In tangentially-related news, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday that the US average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.20%. That is the lowest rate since February 2023.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green with just four of the region’s 12 exchanges showing red.  Malaysia (+0.84%), and Hong Kong (+0.75%) led the gainers while Shenzhen (-0.88%) and Japan (-0.68%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.52%), and FTSE (+0.30%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.03% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.648% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.13% to $69.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes August Export Price Index, and August Import Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In overnight news, aerospace giant BA’s problems increased even more as workers in the Pacific Northwest (more than 30k workers) rejected the company’s contract offer by a massive 96% vote against and promptly went on strike.  This was the first BA strike since 2008 and it completely halts production of the company’s best-selling 737 line of jets.  Elsewhere, President Biden proposed a rule change that would prevent low-value shipments (largely made up of Temu and Shein retail packages) from getting special custom exemptions and avoid tariffs on Chinese goods.  (The White House estimates that those type of shipment have increased from 140 million per year to more than a billion over the last 10 years.)

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened the premarket just on the green side of flat and have been largely indecisive since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend remains mixed with the QQQ bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears has a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green this morning, led higher by AMD (+0.68%) and GOOGL (+0.65%). On the other side, TSLA (-0.34%) is the laggard. Normalcy has returned to the pre-market dollar-volume with NVDA having traded about five times as much dollar-volume of stock as the next closest ticker this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us major whiplash on Wednesday. SPY opened a small 0.01% lower, DIA gapped down 0.27%, and QQQ gapped up 0.23%.  However, at the point, all three major index ETFs sold off sharply and steadily for about 60-75 minutes. Then we saw momentum switch flipped and all three rallied sharply and steadily for the rest of the day. Only profit-taking the last five minutes kept us from closing at the highs in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave up large white-bodied candles with large lower wicks.  SPY and DIA were white Hammer type candles while QQQ had a larger body.  All three crossed above their T-line, although DIA closed only slightly above its 8ema.  This happened on average volume in the SPY and DIA as well as well-above average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Technology (+2.43%) way, way (more than 1.25%) out front leading the Bulls higher. On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.60%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.03%, DIA gained just 0.25%, and QQQ popped 2.17% higher.  VXX dropped another 4.25% to close at 49.33% and T2122 rose up into the center of its mid-range at 47.68.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.655% while Oil (WTI) jumped up another 2.37% to close at $67.31 per barrel on potential hurricane impact.  So, on Wednesday saw the Bears trying to make hay on flat CPI numbers until a major mid-morning reversal ripped their faces off and did not let up the rest of the day.  As usual, NVDA led the market on the dollar-volume of stock traded, but this time also chipped in with a strong 8.15% gain.  

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included August Core CPI (month-on-month), which rose a tick to +0.3% (compared to the +0.2% forecast and July reading).  However, on the annual basis August Core CPI was flat at +3.2% (versus a forecast and July value of +3.2%).  On the headline front, the month-on-month August CPI was flat at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and July reading of +0.2%).  On the year-on-year basis, August CPI was down sharply to +2.5% (right on the +2.5% forecast but down sharply from July’2 +2.9% value).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories were down, about as expected, at +0.833 million barrels (versus a +0.900 million barrels forecast but up sharply from the prior week’s -6.873 million barrels number). 

In “here we go again” news, we are facing another potential government shutdown at the end of September.  Yet again, the GOP has put off either a budget or a continuing resolution to the last minute.  And just as in so many times before, GOP in-fighting has stopped progress as the deadline looms.  This time, a previously-scheduled vote on a Republican-dictated bill was canceled for Wednesday because the House Speaker did not want to go through the embarrassment of previous vote failures.  So, the Speaker told reporters that the Republican caucus will “work through the weekend” to try to get enough votes for their partisan bill, which he hopes to put up for a vote next Tuesday.  In the meantime, we wait for the next act in this play as the calendar ticks down with less than three weeks left.

In Fed news, on Wednesday the Fed Office of the Inspector General released a report saying its investigation had found that Atlanta Fed President Bostic had created the appearance he had traded on confidential Fed information 154 times between March 2018 and March 2023.  The report said there was no evidence Bostic actually traded on inside information.  However, his investment managers (who traded his personal account) had made trades 154 times during Fed “blackout periods” just ahead of FOMC announcements.  In addition, the investigation found that Bostic filed inaccurate financial disclosure forms, held more Treasuries than the Fed permits, and twice made trades that were different than what he had gotten pre-approval from the Fed to make.  The Fed Board of Governors will now review the report and decide appropriate action.

In stock news, on Wednesday STLA announce it will invest $406 million to retool three MI facilities to build components that can be shares between hybrid and all-electric vehicles.  At the same time, GME announced it would be issuing up to 20 million more shares of stock to raise cash for “general corporate purposes.”  (GME closed down almost 12% on the news.)  Later, ADBE announced it will release a new AI-powered video creation and editing tool later this year.  At the same time, SEC filings showed that BRKB had sold another 5.8 million shares of BAC between September 6 and September 10.  (That takes the BRKB offloading of BAC to almost 175 million since mid-July.)    Later, RHHBY (Roche) reported disappointing early-stage trial results or its weight-loss pill. 

Elsewhere, the CEO of RTX told an investor conference that he does not see any available “transformative M&A deals” in the aerospace industry and he is open to paring down the RTX business by pruning (selling) certain units.  Later, Reuters reported that BA is facing a possible strike Friday in the Pacific Northwest.  It seems that despite a tentative deal, which workers vote on ratifying on Thursday, many of the workers are enraged by the deal because it offers a much lower pay increase and other benefits that had been sought.  At the same time, AMZN announced it will invest $1.8 billion, this time in Brazil and by 2034, to add to its AWS cloud computing capacity. Later, NSC officially terminated its CEO (for an inappropriate relationship with the company’s top legal officer) and replaced him with the CFO.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, a number of business trade and lobbying groups came out in favor of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of X while trying to also not criticize their target (politicians).  The letter said the signers were “concerned the decision is being unduly influenced by political pressure.”  (However, both sides of the political aisle are strongly and publicly against allowing the acquisition.)  Later, a US District judge ruled in favor of an industry group (whose members include META, GOOGL, and SNAP) and against a UT state law requiring social media platforms to verify user age and restrict the accounts of minors. At the same time, Semaphore reported that the US Dept. of Commerce is close to approving the export of advanced NVDA AI chips to Saudi Arabia. 

Elsewhere, after the close, the CFPB ordered TD to pay $28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers with credit reporting agencies, hurting customer credit scores.  At the same time, the EU’s top privacy regulator announced it has opened an investigation of GOOGL over its AI use of European consumer personal data.  Later, EA, MSFT (Activision division), and TCEHY (Tencent) were among the companies hit with an EU consumer complaint over “tricking” children game players into spending more money via in-game currencies. At the same time, evidence was presented at GOOGL’s ad network antitrust trial that an ex-executive told company employees that the goal was to crush rival ad networks. 

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday Reuters reported that Korean-listed electronics giant Samsung will cut up to 30% of its “overseas staff” across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.  Samsung is the world’s leading producer of smartphones, memory chips, and TVs and has more than 147,000 employees outside of South Korea.  The report said the cuts had already begun in India.  Reuters reported that the story had been confirmed by six Samsung sources.  Elsewhere, about 39% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production and 49% of US natural gas production in the area were shut down on Wednesday due to Hurricane Francine.  Meanwhile, Rho Motion reported that global electric vehicle sales were up 20% in August, despite a 33% decrease (which caused a 19-month low) in Europe. The increase was driven by record sales in China, which were up 42%.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with nine of the 12 exchanges closing above break-even.  Japan (+3.41%), Taiwan (+2.96%), and South Korea (+2.34%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.78%), DAX (+1.09%), and FTSE (+0.73%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.668% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.75% to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, and August PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), WASDE Ag report (noon), August Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.)  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, and SIG.  Then, after the close, ABDE and RH report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, SIG beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, CAL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (KR reports at 8 a.m.)

In overnight news, MRNA announced plans to cut $1.1 billion in costs by 2027 on expectation of a rapid decline in its COVID vaccine business.  However, the company also said it expects to have 10 new biotech products approved over that same period.  Meanwhile, MCD announced it will extend its “$5 value meal” program through the end of the year in most US markets.  (Approximately 80% of MCD franchisees have chosen to do this program extension.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that both JPM and BAC are rolling out programs to reduce junior staff workloads.  JPM will limit MOST junior staffers to only 80 hours per week.  At the same time, BAC is rolling out a so-called “Banker Diary” system to track individual employee workloads.  (I’m sure that in no way will be used for analyzing and ranking employee productivity.)

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have printed small and indecisive (mostly wick) candles since that point. All three are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend with the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended, having just re-crossed their T-lines. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning, led higher by GOOGL (+1.15%). On the other side, TSLA (-0.54%) is the laggard. Interestingly, normalcy has returned to the pre-market dollar-volume with NVDA having traded more than six times as much stock as the next closest ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was a down then up day.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA gapped up 0.26%, and QQQ gapped up 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs did some form of morning selloff that re-crossed the opening gap and reached the lows of the day about noon.  This was followed by a long, steady rally into the end of the day.  This action gave us gap-up candles with long lower wicks.  The SPY printed a white-bodied, small-body, long-handle Hammer, while DIA gave us a larger, black-bodied Hammer that retested and failed its T-line (8ema) from below.  For its part, QQQ made the most gain with a gap-up, larger white-body Hammer candle.  However, this all happened on much lower-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green and, while it may be a data issue, TC200 showed Consumer Cyclical (+10.89%) way, way out front leading the market higher.  On the other side Energy (-1.60%) was by far the worst-performing sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.44%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ gained 0.92%.  VXX fell another 1.77% to close at 51.52% and T2122 was just shy of being flat to stay in the bottom portion of its mid-range at 34.25.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.644% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.54% to close at $66.28 per barrel.  So, Tuesday did see some movement with a gap up, significant selloff and then steady rebound rally all afternoon.    

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook that showed power consumption was still on track to rise to new records in 2024 and 2025.  The EIA projects growing data center demand will increase electric usage to 4,101 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 and then 4,185 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.  (That compares to a 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023.)  Interestingly, solar accounted for 60% of all electric-generating capacity added in the first half of 2024 with TX leading the way by adding 16 billion kilowatt-hours in the first six months.  Later, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks, which showed a bigger than expected drawdown of 2.790 million barrels (compared to the +0.700-million-barrel inventory build that was forecasted, but much less than the prior week’s 7.400-million-barrel drawdown) were reported.

After the close, PLAY, GME, and WOOF all missed on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line. 

In stock news, on Tuesday, TSM reported August sales that point toward a Q3 beat.  At the same time, BMWYY (BMW) cut its 2024 financial outlook, citing weaker sales, in particular in China, as well as supply issues. The cut was for EBIT range mid-point to 6.5%, down from 9.0%.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced it is scrapping a range of labor agreements, including one that guaranteed a minimum number of jobs at six German plants through 2029.  The company is in serious negotiations with unions and this may be a negotiating tactic, but it raises the unheard-of prospect of job cuts or plant closures at VLKAF’s flagship German factories for the first time in 87 years. At the same time, NBTB announced it had agreed to buy EVBN for $236 million.  The deal will create a bank with $16 billion in assets.  Later, BA announced it delivered 40 jets in August, up five from August 2023 and up eight month-on-month.  In other BA news, Reuters exclusively reported BA had delayed supplier production milestones by six months for its 737 MAX.  (This is a sign BA is now struggling to get production back on schedule for its top-selling 737 MAX planes.)  Later, UPS announced it would acquire German healthcare logistics (temperature-control warehousing and shipping) firm Frigo-Trans and its sister company BPL for an undisclosed sum.

Elsewhere, NKE shareholders rejected (for the second straight year) a proposal that the firm enter into binding agreements to address the human rights of workers at its suppliers (where thousands of NKE garment makers are allegedly unpaid, forced labor).  At the same time, LUV Chairman Kelly announced he is stepping down amidst a board fight by activist investors and CEO Jordan.  Later, CPB announced it is dropping the word “Soup” from its name and will be known as “The Campbell Company” as it shifts into other packaged foods. At the same time, Reuters reported that GS is close to a deal to sell its GM credit card unit to BCS for an undisclosed sum.  (The GM card unit has about $2 billion of card balances outstanding.)  After the close, the CEO of RTX told a conference that the alarms are going off for it with massive problems like its supply chain having never recovered from COVID-19, being unable to find qualified labor for its production lines, and more.  Specifically, RTX CEO Hayes said that 2,000 of the company’s 14,000 suppliers are located in China.  He refused to define it, but said that if “if” ever happens, he doesn’t know what the company will deal with the situation.  After the close, AMZN announced it will invest $10.45 billion in UK Data Centers over the next five years as it builds out its Web Services offerings.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, DE agreed to pay $9.93 million to settle SEC charges that its Thailand subsidiary offered massage parlor and other improper gifts to the government of that country from 2017 to 2020 as well as other commercial bribery to win contracts.  At the same time, the SEC fined KDP $1.5 million to settle charges of inaccurate statements regarding the recyclability of its K-cup coffee pods.  Later, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 99k electric SUVs to fix door handles which allow water to seep into circuit boards and can lead to lock malfunctions. At the same time, a new lawsuit was filed against CHD that alleges the company’s Trojan Condoms are not safe because they contain “forever chemicals.”  Later, Fed Vice-Chair Barr announced revised capital requirement rules for banks in what is widely seen as a big win for major banks and their lobbyists.  (The increase in capital requirements will be roughly half of the increase initially proposed.) 

Meanwhile, the FTC told ANCTF (operator of Circle-K convenience stores) and SVNDF (operator of 7-eleven convenience stores) that it may probe any acquisition deal.  (If the two strike a deal, it would combine the two largest convenience chains in the world.)  Later, a former executive of NWSA testified in the GOOGL antitrust lawsuit, saying that NWSA would have lost $9 billion in 2017 if it had switched away from the GOOGL ad buying platform.  This, he said, kept NWSA captive to GOOGL and feeling like hostages.  After the close WBA and TEVA announced they had settled with the city of Baltimore MD over opioid crisis liability ahead of the trial which was to begin next week.  The two companies will pay $402.5 million to settle the case.  Also after the close, a TPR executive testified that if the company merges with CPRI, they will have room to raise prices and lower discounts, just as the FTC had charged.  However, while those things were also shown in a slide deck from TPR’s CEO, the executive said that did not necessarily mean the company would do those things.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, OPEC+ revised its global oil demand forecast downward for both 2024 and 2025.  This was the second consecutive month OPEC+ has lowered its estimate of worldwide oil usage.  Still, the forecast calls for an increase of 2.03 million barrels per day on average for all of 2024 (down a bit from last month’s 2024 forecast of a 2.11 million barrels per day increase).  For 2025, OPEC+ is calling for an additional increase of 1.74 million barrels per day (versus last month’s estimate of a 1.78 million barrels per day increase).  Meanwhile, FDX warned that some areas of Louisiana may see pickup and delivery delays later in the week as storm Francine is expected to make landfall in the state Wednesday.   Elsewhere, the Census Bureau reported that the median US 2023 INFLATION-ADJUSTED Household income had recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, even considering the inflation spikes of 2022 and 2023. Finally, Bloomberg reported that online grocery prices fell by 3.7% in August which was the largest monthly decline since 2014. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with just three of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  Japan (-1.49%), Malaysia (-1.24%), and Shanghai (-0.82%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday with 11 of the 14 exchanges in the green.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (+0.39%), and FTSE (+0.07%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, at 7:15 a.m., Futures point toward a down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.627% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.16% to $67.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to August Core CPI and August CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include DBI, HEPS, and TEN.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, DBA reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  This included a significant (48%) downside earnings surprise.

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened modestly lower in the premarket. Since that point, all three have printed indecisive (largely wick) candles that are back to little-changed from their early session open. All three remain below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend with the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, the 8ema has caught up and none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched below it. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. However, the Bulls have a bit more slack to play with. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning, led again by TSLA (-0.45%). On the other side, AMZN (+0.25%) is holding up best. Oddly enough, TSLA has traded more in the premarket in terms of dollar-volume than NVDA (-0.21%), which normally has 2-5 times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker. So, there may be changes afoot or perhaps traders are just waiting on the CPI numbers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap higher and then a run up and selloff that results in not much move.  SPY gapped up 0.79%, DIA gapped up 0.70%, and gapped up 0.92%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied until 10:15 a.m.  At that point, the resulting pullbacks all lasted about an hour and varied, with DIA not even pulling back to the opening level, SPY pulling back a little less than half way aback across its opening gap, and QQQ pulling back about two-thirds of its opening gap.  All three then rallied back to the highs of the day as of shortly after 1 p.m. only to pullback with DIA and SPY staying above their opening level and the more volatile QQQ dipping back into its gap.  Then all three made a modest rally the last 75 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ were also Bullish Harami candles while DIA closed 5 cents too high to qualify as a Harami.  This happened on below-average volume in all three.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Industrials (+1.35%) and Financial Services (+1.20%) leading the way higher as Energy (+0.23% lagged behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 1.12%, DIA gained 1.13%, and QQQ gained 1.29%. VXX plummeted 6.52% to close at 52.45% and T2122 climbed out of its oversold area to the bottom part of its mid-range at 34.73.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 3.70% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.49% to close at $68.68 per barrel.  So, Monday was a gap-up and then undecided day that stayed on the Bullish side (with all three major index ETFs closing above their gap-up opens). On the Tech front, GOOGL (-1.46%) was the lone loser among the big dogs, but AAPL’s “Glow Day” product announcement did not help it with the stock only closing up 0.04%.  However, NVDA (+3.54%) and NVDA (+2.83%) did gain…maybe on the AI focus of AAPL’s new product offerings. 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday were limited to August NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which stayed flat at 3.0%, and July Consumer Credit, which showed a massive jump.  July Consumer Credit came in at $25.45 billion (compared to a forecast of $12.30 billion and a June reading of 5.23 billion). 

After the close, ORCL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Monday, prior to AAPL’s big iPhone refresh (this time featuring AI) a key competitor racked up a big win.  Chinese phone maker Huawei announced they had received 3 million pre-orders for their own upcoming phone refresh (this one a tri-fold, Z-shape design).  This was significant because Huawei is charging $2,800 for the new tri-fold phone and it didn’t even tell consumers when the phones would be available. Huawei just wanted to front-run AAPL by locking in orders.  At the same time, KEY announced it had sold $7 billion of low-yield assets for a loss and that they would take about a $700 million hit on the assets in Q3. Later, the CFO of C told an investor conference he expects banking fees from its Investment Banking unit to rise 20% in Q3 compared to Q3 in 2023. 

Elsewhere, SIEGY (Siemens) announced it’s spending $60 million on a new US factory (in NY?) to build high-speed trains for the Los Angeles to Las Vegas passenger route.  The plant is expected to come online in 2026 with the rail line expected to begin operation in 2028.  After the close, GS CEO Soloman told an investor conference that the bank’s trading business is performing weakly (down 10%) in Q3, especially the bond trading unit.  Also after the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that the CEO of NSC will step down amidst the internal probe into misconduct (an inappropriate relationship with employee).  Finally, as part of its earnings report, ORCL announced it had signed a deal for web services with AMZN.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, BIG filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as expected. BIG also announced it had received $707.5 million from Nexus Capital, which will give it the money to operate while it negotiates a sale to private equity as part of the bankruptcy.  Later, the SEC announced that seven public companies had agreed to pay a combined fine of $3 million for violating whistleblower regulations.  The offending companies were TRU, ACHC, APPF, IEX, LXU, SMFL, and AKA.  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved a $133 million sale of RTX air-to-air missiles to Singapore. 

Elsewhere, the FTC trial to block the TPR acquisition of CPRI got underway Monday.   The FTC presented emails from the CPRI CEO related to several TPR products and urged the judge to block the merger on anti-trust grounds.  At the same time, X and Nippon Steel replied to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US letter sent last week that opposed the acquisition. X and Nippon Steel claim the CFIUS letter did not seriously consider how the merger might positively impact the national security of both countries and ignores a trade agreement that indicates Japanese steel does not present a risk to the US market.  (How that relates to whether Japan owns the US competitor is unclear.) 

In miscellaneous news, the SEC approved (along party lines, over GOP-appointed board member votes) new accounting standards (actually auditing standards) that were proposed by the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (which was created by Congress after Enron and other accounting scandals).  The new standards were written by the PCAOB following its study found that 46% of public company audits done in 2023 did not review sufficient or appropriate evidence to provide a valid audit opinion.  (The new standards take effect in December.  However, if the disgraced GOP candidate wins, they would likely be reversed in 2025 as being too burdensome on businesses.)  Elsewhere, the FBI reported Monday that in 2023, Americans lost $5.6 billion to cryptocurrency fraud schemes (mostly crypto investment schemes).  This was a 45% increase from the amount lost to the same source in 2022. Finally oil (WTI) prices rebounded Monday as a new tropical storm entered the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast expects it to become a hurricane on Wednesday (named Francine) and oil traders are betting on at least temporary production and refining shutdowns in the US Gulf Coast area.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves with just four of the 12 exchanges below break-even.  Malaysia (+0.54%), Singapore (+0.46%), and India (+0.42%) led the gains while South Korea (-0.49%) was the biggest loser.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the opposite picture is taking shape on modest moves at midday.  Just four of the 14 bourses are green with the CAC (+0.13%), DAX (-0.44%), and FTSE (-0.54%) pacing the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.13% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.719% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.06% to $67.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon) and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.)  However, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr does speak at 10 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ASO and CMA.  Then, after the close, PLAY, GME, and WOOF reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get August Core CPI, August CPI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, DBI, HEPS, and TEN report. On Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In overnight news, the EU’s top court ruled that AAPL must pay $14.4 billion in back taxes in a case the company has dragged out since 2016.  (The case stems from AAPL using Ireland to hide revenue (taking advantage of the bribe tax rate Ireland used to lure AAPL and avoid paying taxes throughout the EU).  At the same time, the same top EU Court upheld GOOGL’s $2.4 billion fine for abusing its dominant search market position to favor its ads over competitor ad offerings.  Meanwhile, GS said it will take a $400 million pretax hit in Q3 as part of the unwinding of its consumer unit (which included the GM-brand credit card business and other loans).  Elsewhere, AZN reported disappointing lung cancer drug trial results.

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened slightly higher but have been indecisive since that point. DIA is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below while QQQ pulled back below Monday’s candle body before rebounding back up into a Butterfly Doji and SPU did something similar with a smaller move down. After these machinations, all three major index ETFs remain near the Monday close. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, the 8ema has caught up and none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched below it. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, the market has room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. However, the Bulls have a bit more slack to play with. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, 8 of the 10 are in the green this morning, led again by TSLA (+1.33%). However, AAPL (-1.02%) is by far the biggest drag on the group. So, the Bulls have control in the Tech sector again, early this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw the Bears in control early and then a drift sideways all afternoon.  SPY opened 0.05% higher, DIA opened up 0.13%, and QQQ gapped down 0.20%.  At that point, QQQ led the way by selling off sharply until 11 a.m. and then more modestly for another 60 minutes.  SPY followed through to the upside for 5 minutes before following QQQ in a sharp selloff until 11 a.m. and then more modestly for an hour.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA rallied for 20 minutes before it too followed QQQ by sharply selling until 11 a.m. and then more modestly until noon. At that point, all the air went out of the market, with all three trading sideways in a very tight range the rest of the day.  On the day, SPY and DIA retested their T-line (8ema) and failed that test.  SPY also tested and crossed below its 50sma.  This action gave us large black-body candles dropping well below the consolidations in SPY and QQQ.  This action took place on average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as slightly below-average volume in DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.56%) way out in front of the other sectors, leading the way lower.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.46%) and Communication Services (-0.48%) held up better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY dropped 1.68%, DIA fell 0.98%, and QQQ dropped 2.68%. VXX popped 7.41% to close at 56.11% and T2122 dropped into the middle of its oversold territory at 10.65.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell again to close at 3.716% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.43% to close at $68.16 per barrel on demand concerns.  So, Friday a big drop, led by the TSLA (-8.45%), NVDA (-4.09%), GOOGL (-4.02%), AMZN (-3.65%), and AMD (-3.65%).  (AVGO also lost 10.35% on very heavy volume after its beat on both lines and modest forecast increase did not meet market expectations.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included August Avg. Hourly Earnings, which were better than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and July’s -0.1%).  On an annual basis, August Avg. Hourly Earnings were up 3.8% (versus a 3.7% forecast and up from July’s 3.6% reading).  At the same time, August Nonfarm Payrolls were up 142k (compared to a +164k forecast but much stronger than July’s +89k).  On the private side, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls were up 118k (versus a forecast of +139k but up strongly from July’s +74k value).  The August Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (with July’s reading also being 62.7%).  This led to a August Unemployment Rate of 4.2% (compared to a 4.2% forecast and down a tick from July’s 4.3% reading). 

In Fed news, on Friday, New York Fed President Williams indicated that the time has come for rate cuts.  Williams said, “With the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2%, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.”  However, he did hedge his bets, saying “The stance of monetary policy can be moved to a more neutral setting over time depending on the evolution of the data, the outlook, and the risks to achieving our objectives.”  He concluded, “It’s pretty clear we’re going to need over time to get interest rates back to a more normal level. The problem with that statement is I’m not sure what that more normal level is and I’m not sure at all about how long that should take.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller agreed with Williams, saying “The time has come (for the Fed to begin rate cuts).”  He continued, “If the data supports cuts at consecutive meetings, then I believe it will be appropriate to cut at consecutive meetings.”  Waller also opened the door to larger cuts, saying “If the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then I will support that as well. I was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and I will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.”

In stock news, on Friday, BAC analysts reported research showing that GOOGL’s share of the internet search market increased in August, helped by its integration of AI.  The report said, GGOL has 90.5% of the search market globally, but “only” 87.9% in the US.  At the same time, Reuters reported (and the French company confirmed) that French fir Elis had made an acquisition offer to VSTS.  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that QCOM has explored the possibility of acquiring portions of INTC’s chip design business.  At the same time, activist investor hedge fund Starboard Value filed a shareholder resolution to end NWSA’s “dual-class shares” in a bid to oust Rupert Murdoch from his control of the company.  After the close, S&P announced that DELL, PLTR, and ERIE will join the S&P500 before the open on September 23.  (These will replace AAL, ETSY, and BIO, which will be dropped from the index at the same time.)  Later, TSM announced they have achieved production yields on par with Taiwanese plants at their AZ plant. This likely means that 4nm plant is on track to achieving output goals after the initial startup in April.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Financial Times reported that AAPL’s new iPhone (to be announced on Monday) will use ARM chips for AI technologies.  Later, STLA recalled 1.46 million vehicles worldwide, including 1.23 million in the US, due to software malfunction in the anti-lock brake system that can increase the risk of crashes.  At the same time BA’s Starliner capsule was able to make it back to earth, parachuting into the NM desert.  (It will now be shipped to FL, where it will be examined to discover what parts failed.)  In other BA news, Sunday BA announced a it has a tentative deal with a union covering 32,000 of its workers in the US Pacific Northwest. (The deal calls for a 25% wage increase over four years, a commitment to build its next commercial aircraft in that area, 12 weeks paid parental leave, and improved retirement benefits among other things.)  At the same time, ANCTF (owner of the Circle-K convenience stores) plans to make a second offer to SVNDF (owner of the 7-eleven convenience stores) according to Bloomberg. (The first offer, of $38.6 billion, was rejected at the end of last week.) Later, CNBC reported that the CEO of NSC is being investigated by the company board over engaging in an inappropriate workplace relationship.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a federal judge rejected a COIN motion to dismiss a shareholder class action suit alleging the company had played down the risk of being sued by the SEC (for buying/selling crypto being securities).  So, the shareholder suit will continue.  At the same time, the SEC fined Esmark and its Chairman for making a “false tender offer” to acquire X at $35 per share.  (The suit alleges the tender offer was made even though Esmark had no financing in place to execute on the offer, which would have required $7.8 billion in cash.)  Later, MA state security regulators fined MS $2 million for failing to monitor insider trading by FRCB prior to the bank failing.  (MS managed the stock sales of FRCB and the small bank’s Chair was allowed to execute stock sales prior to material nonpublic information being released to the market.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $691 million of RTX Sidewinder missiles to the Netherlands. 

Elsewhere, a bi-partisan group of Congressman and Senators launched an inquiry into six US retailers (including AZO and AAP) over whether they bought Chinese auto parts and evaded tariffs by trans-shipping the cargoes through Thailand.  After the close Friday, Bloomberg reported that BIG is preparing to file for bankruptcy under chapter 11.  (This comes after the company postponed earnings from Sept. 6 to Sept. 12.) Friday evening, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved BLK’s $12.5 billion (cash and stock) deal to acquire Global Infrastructure Partners (which owns many assets in the utility space).  Then, on Saturday, as part of a money laundering case, WYNN agreed to pay $130 million to the SEC and admit that it let unlicensed money transfers from around the world funnel gambler money to its flagship Las Vegas casino. This was part of a Dept. of Justice “Non-prosecution settlement.”  Finally, on Sunday, DirecTV filed an FCC complaint against DIS for anti-competitive practices and failing to negotiate in good faith.  DIS was requiring DirecTV to take an pay for less popular channels in order to distribute ESPN, while DIS offers “skinnier” bundles direct to the public.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Singapore (+1.22%) was the outlier of four gaining exchanges.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.42%), Taiwan (-1.36%), and Shanghai (-1.06%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see nearly green across the board at midday with only Greece (-0.26%) in the red among the 14 bourses.  The CAC (+0.84%), DAX (+0.75%), and FTSE (+0.75%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.68% open, the SPY is implying a +0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 3.746% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.78% to $68.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to August NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and July Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open. However, after the close, ORCL reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday the Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  Then Wednesday, we get August Core CPI, August CPI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ASO, CMA, PLAY, GME, and WOOF. Then Wednesday, DBI, HEPS, and TEN report. On Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, there are no significant earnings reports.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are indecisively in control this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. Since then, all three have given us indecisive, small-body and plenty of wick candles. Despite the gap higher, all three remain below their 8ema. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed with the QQQ now bearish and in the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, QQQ remains a bit stretched below its T-line and SPY pushed toward joining it Friday. However DIA remains close enough to the 8ema. On the other hand, the T2122 indicator is back in the middle of its oversold range. So, the market is not “crazy extended” but at least the QQQ will need a pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning, led by TSLA (+1.94%). However, five of the 10 are up more than a percent and the laggard is AAPL (+0.29%). So the Bulls are in control in the Tech sector this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged on indecision (at least momentarily) at the open.  SPY opened flat, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped down 0.35%.  However, then they all three ran modestly higher for the first hour, sold off sharply until 11:30 a.m. in the QQQ, and 12:20 p.m. in the SPY and DIA.  From that point, all three made a slow, steady rally part of the way back up before starting to sell modestly at 2:55 p.m. before chopping sideways the last 15 minutes (ending on an up-tick).  This action gave us indecisive, white-bodied Spinning Top type candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA.  SPY retested and failed its 17ema while DIA retested and failed its T-line (8ema).  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Industrials (-1.15%) and Healthcare (-1.04%) way out front leading markets lower.  Meanwhile, Communication Services (+0.53%) held up better than the others and led the two gaining sectors higher.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.24%, DIA fell 0.48%, and QQQ gained 0.09%. The VXX fell almost 5% to close at 52.24% and T2122 dropped again, this time into the lower half of its mid-range at 37.30.  10-Year bond yields fell again to close at 3.731% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $69.12 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw the rollover continue (albeit slowly) in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ tried to hold us up in a consolidation.  It is worth noting that the big dogs tried to hold the rest of the market up with NVDA (+0.94%), TSLA (+4.90%), AAPL (+0.69%), and AMZN (+2.63%) being the four most traded (dollar-volume) in the market.  Still, this may have been a waiting day as traders wait on Friday’s August Payrolls numbers. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in significantly lower than expected at +99k (versus a +144k forecast and July’s +111k reading).  Later, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were a bit lower than predicted at 227k (compared to a 231k forecast and the prior week’s 232k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were down to 1,838k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the prior week’s 1,860k value).  At the same time, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity was up BIG to +2.5% (versus a +2.3% forecast and especially versus Q1’s +0.2% reading).  Meanwhile, Q2 Unit Labor Costs were much lower than anticipated at +0.4% (compared to a +0.9% forecast and down sharply from Q1’s 4.0% value).  Later, August Global Services PMI was stronger than expected at 55.7 (versus a forecast of 55.2 and July’s 55.0 number).  At the same time, August S&P Global Composite PMI that was also stronger than predicted at 54.6 (compared to 54.1 that was forecast and the prior month’s 54.3).  Later, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was lower than anticipated at 50.2 (versus a 50.5 forecast and July’s 51.1 reading).  At the same time, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was a couple ticks better than expected at 51.5 (compared to a 51.3 forecast and July’s 51.4 number).  On the cost side, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices were up three ticks to 57.3 (versus a 56.0 forecast and a 57.0 July reading).  Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a large drawdown of 6.873 million barrels (compared to a 0.600-million-barrel drawdown forecast and the prior week’s -0.668 million barrels value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $10 billion reduction from $7.123 trillion to $7.113 trillion.

After the close, AVGO and DOCU reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  In addition, both companies raised forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday, BNY announced it had agreed to acquire Archer (a private technology and operations service for banks).  Details were not disclosed.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported on data leaked by DIS that disclosed customer and staff personal information as well as company financial and strategy information. Later, F announced that US vehicle sales increased 13.4% in August on strong SUV and pickup demand.  (In addition, in a much smaller segment, F all electric sales rose 29% while hybrid sales grew almost 50%.)  At the same time, TSLA announced plans to launch “Full Self-Driving” in China and Europe (pending regulatory approval) in early 2025.  TSLA CEO Musk said they were “likely” to get approval from both regulators by the end of the year.  (TSLA closed up 4.90% on the news.)  Later, APLD (which runs data centers) announced it will receive $160 million in funding from investors including NVDA.  (APLD closed up more than 65% on the news.)  At the same time, ABT said it will be launching a continuous glucose monitoring system, a multi-billion-dollar market. 

Meanwhile, CNOB agreed to buy smaller banking competitor FLIC for $284 million.  The combined banks will have $114 billion in assets.  At the same time, FDX announce it has invested in private AI robotics company Nimble to help scale up automation in the FDX fulfillment unit.  Later, Reuters reported that BX and Vista Equity Partners are in talks to acquire SMAR in a deal valued around $7 billion.  At the same time, T said it has made its “final offer” to the striking CWA union (which has 17,000 members on strike against T).  The union told Reuters “The offer did not meet expectations.”  Later, SLTA announced it will invest $385 million in a new plant in Argentina.  After the close, the Teamsters union threatened to expand its strike from just the Detroit MPC refinery to other refineries as the company has been unwilling to negotiate with the union.  (The Detroit refinery is one of 13 MPC refineries.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that after the deal with Skydance Media, ORCL co-founder Larry Ellison will control PARA and his son will serve as CEO.  Also after the close, CRM announced it would buy private firm “Own Company” for $1.9 billion to accelerate the growth of its data security and privacy products.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the SEC announced it will no longer conduct misconduct proceedings against accountants who allegedly perform malpractice or submit fraudulent audit reports for public companies.  The move comes after the pro-business, ultra-conservative SCOTUS recently rules to curtail the agency enforcement powers. Later, the EU’s highest court rejected an appeal against antitrust fines imposed by the EU antitrust regulator on AFLYY, SINGY, and British Airways.  At the same time, TX energy regulators denied a funding request for a new power plant project that would be a joint-venture of NEE and private Aegle Power.  (This is worthy of mention because TX had named the project a finalist for award of state grants to increasing state electric generation, but NEE denied being involved or consenting to be listed as an applicant for the program.)  Later, HSY filed a motion seeking the dismissal of a lawsuit which alleges the company misled consumers with holiday-themed candy packaging (when the actual product did not contain the same festive designs and/or colors).

Elsewhere, After the close, SNAP was sued by the state of NM, which alleged the platform failed to protect children from sexual exploitation.  At the same time, Nikkei reported that TM (Toyota) and NSANY (Nissan) will invest nearly $7 billion with Japanese government support to expand battery production by 50%.  Later, the Dept. of Trans. announced it is opening an inquiry into AAL, DAL, LUV, and UAL rewards and frequent flyer programs over potential unfair, anticompetitive, and deceptive practices.  At the same time, AMZN sued the NRLB, challenging the agency which had ruled AMZN must negotiate with a union after an election at the company’s New York City warehouse.  AMZN’s suit followed the conservative playbook, saying the agency’s structure is unconstitutional and had no right to rule the election results were fair.  Later, China arrested five AZN oncology division employees in Shenzhen, possibly related to the collection of patient data that infringed China’s data-privacy laws.

In miscellaneous news, OPEC+ announced they had agreed to delay a previously planned October and November oil production increase after oil prices hit their lowest levels in nine months.  Meanwhile, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (made up of cabinet-level members of many departments and chaired by Treasury Sec. Yellen) sent a letter to both X and Nippon Steel.  The letter said the acquisition could create US national security risks and could lead to a reduction in domestic steel production.  (This letter reflects the feelings of the vast majority of politicians on both sides of the aisle.)  However, in Japan, the Japanese PM hopeful and current Digital Minister Kono told reporters that “Governments should not intervene in deals in an arbitrary manner.”  He went on to say, “Perhaps it is the presidential election and everyone wants the labor vote, but I would hope that the market will not be distorted by such a situation.” 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with just three of the 12 regional exchanges in the green. Shenzhen (-1.44%) and South Korea (-1.21%) paced the more numerous losers while Thailand (+1.66%) and Taiwan (+1.17%) led the gainers.  In Europe, with the sold exception of Belgium (+0.16%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.25%), DAX (-0.54%), and FTSE (-0.24%) lead the region lower in afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.61% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.06% open at this hour (ahead of PCE data).  At the same time, 10-Yead bond yields have dropped to 3.699% and Oil (WTI) is on the green side of flat at $69.27 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (8:45 a.m.) and Fed Governor Waller (11 a.m. and 11 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO. Then, after the close, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In late-breaking news, AAPL has approved a version of the TCEHY (Tencent) WeChat app for its phones ahead of next Monday’s iPhone 16 launch. (WeChat is China’s most used social media platform.)  This move is a nod to the fact Chinese phone makers have been taking market share from AAPL.  There was no word on the financial terms, but there had been a pushback from TCEHY about the cut AAPL was taking from app store apps.  Elsewhere, in another sign of corporate power, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (one of the “big four” accounting firms globally) has told 26,000 UK employees it will begin to use location data to track employees in order to ensure they spend at least 60% of their time each week in the office or at a client location.  Meanwhile, the US announced new export controls on advanced technology (particularly quantum computers and the chip-making tools needed to build them).  This brings the US in-line with allies such as the Netherlands (basically limiting ASML tech exports to China) and the UK.

So far this morning, ABM and GCO reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, DOOO missed on revenue while posting a MASSIVE (+104.5%) beat on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control ahead of data. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket. Since then, all three have given us plenty of wick, but SPY does have a black-body candle in the early session, indicating some bearish follow-through. All three remain below their 8ema. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed with the QQQ now bearish and in the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, QQQ remains a bit stretched below its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, the market is not “too extended” but the QQQ will need more pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only INTC (+0.10%) holds on to green territory. However, NVDA (-1.30%) and TSLA (-0.66%), which are by far the biggest dogs in terms of dollar-volume traded, are pulling tech and the whole market lower early. Finally, don’t forget this is Friday, payday, and time to ready your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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