Everywhere you look, there are trending charts, stock holding support levels, and great trading patterns displayed.   However, on the other side, there is a growing concern of recession, rampant unemployment, and consumer debit hitting record highs.  All the problems thus far have been masked by government stimulus, but one wonders just how long that can continue.  What I’m saying is don’t become complacent and remember we have the Employment Situation number coming out Friday morning, and it will be hard to ignore.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, and European markets are seesawing between mild bullishness and bearishness this morning.  Ahead of the ADP report and a huge day of earnings reports the US futures to point to another gap up open.  Stay focused on price and remember a moring gap and easily be met by profit-takers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Hump day is a busy day on the earnings calendar, with 475 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include PTON, DDD, ALB, AEP, AWK, AMP, APA, AVB, GOLD, BG, CCL, CARS, FUN, CTL, COTY, CVS, DISCA, EPR, ETSY, EXAS, STAY, FTNT, FOSL, GM, GPC, GDDY, GRUB, H, IAC, LYFT, MRO, MET, NYT, ODP, PZZA, PYPL, RMAX, SHB, SMG, SHOP, SQ, TMUS, TWLO, WM, WEN, WING, WYND, & ZTS.

Technically Speaking

 It was great to see so many profits taken yesterday with the follow-through bullish price action.  It looks as if those that continued to hold overnight will see additional rewards this morning.  However, as we head into the jobless claim numbers on Thursday and the Employment situation on Friday morning, it may be wise exercise a bit more caution.  Everywhere you look, there are trending charts showing bullish patterns, but let’s keep in mind in just 3-days the Dow will have recovered 700 to 800 points from Monday’s low will once again test overhead price resistance.  Concerns of recession, mounting consumer debt, and the massive unemployment began to gain some traction yesterday after a Fed member painted a pretty grim picture going forward.

After the bell, the DIS report displayed the massive impacts of the virus and suggested the full effects will happen next quarter.  One benefit they did enjoy was the tremendous increase in their streaming subscriber base that topped 54 million.  Today the market will grapple with another 475 earnings reports and an ADP number at 8:15 AM Eastern with a consensus estimate of 20 million jobs lost.  So far, the market has been able to ignore the unemployment, choosing to focus on governmental stimulus.  That may be the case today, but I’m not sure the Friday number will easily be glossed over unless we hear of another big check from the government on the way.  I guess what I’m saying is not to become complacent.  Stay focused and take those profits the market provides because anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

It was an overall dull trading day until the news that the US Treasury plans to burrow 3 Trillion this quarter.  I guess that was music to the ears of the market, creating a sharp rally recovering yesterday’s losses to close in the green.  The bullish energy stayed with the futures all evening and now points to substantial gap up open ahead of earnings and economic data.

Asian markets closed mostly higher despite the big hit Hong Kong reported in the first quarter.  European markets are in rally mode this morning as more virus restrictions lifted, and the hope of recovery grows.  US Futures suggest a Dow bullish gap of nearly 250 points reversing yesterday’s selloff and proving support of the DIA and IWM 50-day average. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

With new additions, the Tuesday earnings calendar expects more than 375 reports today.  Notable reports include NEM, DIS, ATVI, AOS, ALK, AGN, ALL, BYND, BCO, CAKE, CC, DVA, DVN, D, DD, EA, FACU, FLR, ITW, I, J,  KGC, LC, TREE, LGIH, MPC, MAT, OXY, PINS, PLNT, PRU, REGN, RCL, STOR, SU, SYY, TRIP, W, WU, & WYNN.

Technically Speaking

It was a pretty bleak day yesterday with light and choppy price action until the report came out that the US Treasury planned to burrow a record 3 Trillion this quarter.  After the news, the market rallied strongly, confirming the market has no concern about debit as long as the money keeps flowing to the market.  The bullish energy continued overnight with the futures market rising, pointing to a substantial gap up open reversing Monday’s selloff.  California, Wahington, joins other states in getting back to business with limitations and new social guidelines.  The market seems to have gains some energy on the reopening even though many suggest its too early, worrying about the 2nd round of increasing infections.  Even Congress has returned to work wearing masks and indicating no more closures of the government. I’ll let you decide if that’s good news or not!

By the close yesterday, the DIA & IWM proved the 50-day average as support with this morning’s follow-through providing some conformation of the hold.  We have a big day of earings with over 375 companies reporting, but I’m not sure that matters.  We rally on good earnings reports, and we rally on bad earings reports choosing to focus on the trillions of governmental spending.  I guess massive debt negative earnings growth and 30 million unemployed is no match for the apparent unlimited checkbook of the government.  One has to wonder about the long-term ramifications of these decisions.  That said, the trend is bullish, the hold of support levels provides conformation, and we as traders must focus on the price action of the charts.  I don’t need to understand it or agree with the market decisions as long as I set aside my bias and trade the price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As the country begins the process of reopening the economy, the bulls and bears are grappling with what the new normal will look like as the battle with the virus continues.  So many questions, so much uncertainty, and the realization that the recovery will be very complicated until a vaccine becomes widely available will test investor’s resolve.  Add to that massive week of earnings reports, and the stage is set for a week of whipsaws and big morning gaps.

Asian markets closed the day mixed but mostly lower, with Hong Kong dropping more than 4%.  European markets are decidedly bearish this morning down more than 3% as US-China tensions rise over coronavirus.  US Futures have rallied off of overnight lows but still point to a Dow gap down or 200 to 250 points challenging it’s 50-day moving averages as support.  Prepare for another hectic week.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a hectic week of earnings reports.  The Monday calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report today.  Notable reports include O, AIG, AWR, CAR, CRUS, DLB, EXPE, HTZ, L, NNN, OHI, PETS, SRE, SHAK, SWKS, TXRH, TSN, WMB, and WH.

Technically Speaking

The question as to whether the market will follow-through to the downside seems answered with futures pointing to a substantial gap down open.  Now the question on everyone’s mind, will the 50-day moving averages serve as support?  If not, then we will have to rely on some key price supports to stop the selling.  The DIA support at about 232 looks the most vulnerable, with SPY having a bit more cushion around 275.  As the country begins to process of reopening the market is struggling with what the new normal may look like and will we be able to control the spread of the virus enough to not overwhelm the healthcare system.  With social distancing rules still in effect, can businesses even afford to open with lower volumes of consumer traffic? 

Airlines are in decline this morning after learning that Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stake in the industry due to the coronavirus impacts.  Not a big surprise when the Oracle of Omaha loses confidence in the industry sector.  With a massive week on the earnings calendar with around 1500 companies reporting, we should prepare for another volatile week of price action.  Intra-day whipsaws and significant overnight gaps remain likely and will prove challenging to navigate.  A week later than usual, the Employment Situation report on Friday could have a substantial influence on this week’s activity.  If the consensus estimates are anywhere close to correct, it’s going to be a difficult pill to swallow and harder to ignore than the weekly unemployment numbers.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As unemployment topped 30 million, the bears decided to return to work yesterday, and profit-takers took advantage of the best monthly market rally since 1987.  Earnings from AMZN & AAPL that disappointed investors keep the bears active in the futures market overnight, which now suggests a substantial gap down at the open.  However, at this time, all the indexes indicate they still have their 50-day averages below that could serve as support.

Asian markets closed with Japan falling nearly 3% while other markets were closed for holidays.  European markets are decidedly lower this morning with the DAX and CAC down more than 2%.  US Futures point to a gap down of more than 400 points ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Expect to hear, ‘Sell in May and go away,’ repeated over and over as we head into the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the first day of May, we have a lighter day on the earnings calendar, with about 100 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include CVX, CLX, ABBV, APO, CL, DISH, EL, XOM, HON, PSX, VTR, & WPC.

Technical Speaking

Disappointing unemployment numbers yesterday woke up the bears and brought out some profit-takers.   Overall this was the best month for the market since 1987, with the recovering 35% from the March lows.  After the bell, we heard for AMZN and AAPL, and both seemed to disappoint investors setting off an overnight selloff in the futures.  AMZN looks to open about $120 points lower this morning or about 5% while AAPL is down about 8 points or 2.75%.  These to tech bellwethers comprise a significant weight in the QQQ, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the index leadership as we begin May.

With the Dow Futures pointing to more than a 400 gap down on the first day of May expect to hear the old saying, ‘sell in May and stay away,’ repeated over and over by traders and the media.  After such a strong rally in the indexes, a pullback is not out of the question, but hope for an economic reopening begins; I’m not sure that old saying will carry much weight.  Even with the sizable gap down this morning, all the indexes so far indicate to open above their 50-day averages.  Will they hold?  Only time will tell, but with another day of earnings and economic reports, anything is possible.  Consider your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The FOMC reiterated it would do whatever is necessary for as long as it is needed to bolster the struggling economy.  Powell also called on Congress to provide some more stimulus as unemployment approached a historic 30 million.  A good round of tech earnings after the bell is also encouraging the bulls even though the indexes appear very extended.  With a big day of earnings and economic reports, expect the wild price volatility to continue.

Asian markets rallied on the hope of a coronavirus treatment overnight.  European markets have chopped between gains and losses this morning as they cautiously monitor economic data.  US futures are also very choppy this morning, heading for one of the strongest monthly rallies in decades.  Amazing considering the state of the economy and unemployment.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Thursday earnings calendar has more than 400 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include AMZN, AAPL, FLWS, MO, AAL, CHD, CI, CMCSA, COP, COR, DOW, DNKN, EXC, EXPE, FSLR, BEN, GILD, GT, HBI, IRM, K, KHC, MCD, MGM, TAP, MNST, PLNT, PSA, SPG, SIX, SO, SWK, TWTR, V, WELL, WDC,& WHR.

Top Stories

Jerome Powell said there is a need for more stimulus if we’re to see a robust recovery from the coronavirus crisis.  The FOMC has committed to keeping rates near zero until we see a return to full employment and a return to inflation.  The chairman said he expects the virus will affect the economy for another year, and the massive unemployment will be challenging to recover.

The GDP declined for the first time in a decade, falling more than economists had expected as consumer spending declined sharply.  The outlook for the 2^nd quarter is grim but also very unclear because of the unknown of the economy reopening and the possible resurgence of infections.

Today the nation’s joblessness is expected to rise to nearly 30 million or more.  In a matter of a few weeks, America went from record employment to historic unemployment.  Thus far, the market has been able to ignore these numbers, but the sharp decline in consumer spending reflected in the GDP number will make it challenging to ignore forever.

Technically Speaking

The bulls can’t seem to buy enough risk despite the disappointing GDP numbers and record unemployment rising more than 500 points yesterday.  The T2122 indicator has pegged at the top of the range as the rally continues to extend.  Yesterday the FOMC gave the bulls confidence once again reiterating they will do whatever is necessary for as long as they need to support the struggling economy.  However, Powell believes Congress will have to help out with additional stimulus spending expecting the historic unemployment situation to impact the marketplace for another year. 

A good round of tech earnings after the bell is also helping to bolster the bullish sentiment even though the indexes prices appear very extended.   Today we have more than 400 companies reporting, including AAPL and AMZN, after the bell.  We also face another disappointing jobless number before the market open that could raise the unemployed number above 30 million.  I know its hard to rationalize the horrific economic numbers against what we see as the market rallies.  All we can do is stay focused on price action riding this bull rally as long as it lasts because there is no telling how long or high it can go.  Just be prepared with a plan if it should suddenly stop and reverse to protect your profits.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Yesterday say saw some profit-taking come in immediately after the substantial gap up open. Still, the overall trend trajectory in the indexes remains bullish as we continue to test price resistance levels.  Today we face a big round of earnings reports, a GDP reading that consensus suggests will dive into negative territory and an FOMC decision.  Anything is possible, so cinch up your big boy pants and prepare for price volatility to continue to challenge your trading skills.

Asian markets closed the day flat, and European markets seem to be doing the same this morning, chopping around with modest gains and losses.  However, the US futures seemed filled with confidence this morning, pointing to another gap up ahead of a big day of data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earings calendar, we have more than 300 companies reporting.  Notable reports include AFL, AMT, ANMT, ADM, AZN, BA, BSX, CCL, CCI, DIN, EBAY, EPD, FB, GRMN, GD, GE, HAS, HUM, LH, MA, MSFT, NSC, NOC, PBI, QCOM, RCL, SBH, SCI, NOW, SHW, SPOT, TDOC, TSLA, RIG, VLO, & YUM.

Top Stories

Today we will hear from the FOMC that’s not expected to hold on current interest rates.  However, they could provide more insight into the string of unprecedented actions.

The president invoked war powers to order meat packing companies to remain open as many warn that the supply chain is beginning to breakdown due to closures of many processing facilities.  Health officials warn with so many of the industries workers infected, and lack of protective equipment could have serious ramifications.

The hard-hit country of Italy suffered a credit rating downgrade to just one notch above junk status as debts soar due to the pandemic impacts.  Fitch warned that a second wave of infections could destabilize their economy due to debit risks with Italy.

Technically Speaking

The bulls stepped back slightly yesterday as if they were in a wait and see mode for the next FOMC decision.  The QQQ suffered the most profit-taking of the indexes that began immediately after the significant gap up open.  A good reminder not to chase opening gaps that challenge price resistance or price support levels!  Even with the modest profit-taking yesterday, the trend trajectory remains bullish, with investors holding on to hope that the economy can restart quickly.  However, a business that due resume operations will have to operate in a new normal that will require daily employee health checks, sanitization requirements, and lower capacity rules that provide for social distancing.  The concern is, will consumers return and what liabilities will they face if new infections occur as a result.

Today anything is possible with a big round of earnings reports, a GDP that’s likely to dive into negative territory and the FOMC decision. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The bulls are in charge and don’t want to be bothered by falling oil prices, bankruptcies, massive unemployment, or negative earnings growth.  Today begins the 2-day FOMC, where its hoped we will get some clarity on how long rates will remain low and the extent of the asset purchase programs.  However, it is unlikely the committee will make a change to current interest rates.

Asian markets were little changed overnight as oil continues to slide south, and HSBC’s earnings drop.  European markets are trading in the green across the board with gains above 1.25% as they eye earnings results.  Ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data US Futures power higher with the Dow expected to gap up more than 250 points.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Tuesday earnings calendar is a busy one with nearly 250 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include MMM, ABB, AMD, AB, GOOGL, BP, CAT, CNC, GLW, CMI, DENN, DHI, ECL, FEYE, F, HOG, MRK, MDLZ, NVS, NUE, PEP, PFE, ROP, SPGI, LUV, SBUX, TROW, TRU, UBS, UPS, & YUMC.

Top Stories

The administration unveiled a strategy to help states ramp up their capacity to test for coronavirus, hoping to raise public confidence as state’s begin to restart their economies.  Health officials continue to warn that restarting to soon could create another spike in infections.  Who’s right?  Only time will tell.

The FOMC begins its 2-day meeting today but is unlikely to change the benchmark interest rate.  However, they may provide more clarity about the duration of the low prices and the scale of asset purchases to stabilize the market.

Oil falls 20% on storage capacity fears and weak worldwide demand in the wake of the pandemic.  However, the slide in prices has done nothing to dissuade the bulls as the market continues to stretch into overbought territory.

Congress will soon return to the hill to work on yet another stimulus plan that may include a provision for guaranteed basic income.  The suggestion is anyone making less than 130K per year could receive a $2000 per month payment from the government for the duration of the pandemic crisis.  Of course, an actual plan is likely to be very different.

Technically Speaking

While the T2122 indicator suggests an overbought condition and oil prices dropped 20% yesterday, the bulls continued to power forward.  Although the 50-day moving average continues to decline, the DIA and SPY joined the QQQ by closing above this key psychological indicator.  A growing number of company bankruptcies, negative earnings projections, and historic unemployment levels appear to be of little concern these days as investors seem to have a ravenous appetite for risk.  I don’t understand it, but the good news is that I don’ have to as long as I focus on price action and stick to my trading plan.  Sooner or later, there will be another market pullback, but until that time, set aside your bias and trade the tend.

Ahead of a big day of earnings and several economic reports, the futures indicate another gap up open.  MMM is rising on strong demand for its pandemic safety devices this morning, which makes sense, but CAT reported a 21% decline in sales and is indicated higher.  Go figure?  Needless to say, the bulls are in control and look to make a powerful statement at the open.  Be careful not to chase and remember big gaps can bring in profit-takers, so it would be wise to stay focused on price action clues. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A massive week of earnings and a jam-packed economic calendar that includes an FOMC meeting will give traders and investors an awful lot to digest this week.  This morning US futures are ignoring the 16% decline in West Texas crude pointing to a gap up open that looks to challenge the current consolidation resistance in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  With so much data coming our way expect substantial price volatility to challenge even the most experienced traders.

Asian markets rallied overnight as the Bank of Japan continues to ease monetary policy.  European markets hoping for further lock-down easing are bullish across the board this morning.  US Futures that opened in the red yesterday now suggest a gap up open of more than 200 down points.  This week the market may be a lot of things, but boring is not likely to be one of the descriptions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a hectic earnings calendar this week, and we kick it off with more than 160 companies reporting results.  Notable reports today include BRO, CE, CINF, CLR, CRSP, FFIV, KDP, NXPI, OMF, PKG, and PPG.

Top Stories

Oil is once in again in decline this morning with West Texas crude futures down more than 16% at just over $14 a barrel.  However, US Futures are choosing to ignore the slide in oil prices this morning, pointing to a higher open.

Adidas reported a 19.5 decline in sales in the first quarter and projected a 40% decline for the second quarter.  Although their online sales have increased consumer habits, have changed as people are staying home due to the virus.

This week several states will try to reopen some business with imitations that continue to promote social distancing.  Many health officials suggest it’s too early, and with a shortage of testing, the possibility of higher infection rates may occur.  What they found in Europe that even as stores reopened, consumers continued to stay away, fearing contamination, suggesting recovery will be a complicated process.

Technically Speaking

The DIA, SPY, and QQQ have traded sideways in a broad consolidation range that covers about 1700 Dow points between support and resistance.  With futures choosing to ignore the 16% slide in West Texas crude, it looks as if we will test the resistance levels with a gap up open this morning.  The T2122 indicator at the open is likely to warn of an over-extended condition, so be careful rushing in with a fear of missing out.  With funding for small business restored last Friday with another stimulus bill loans will begin later today.  However, they are already saying the money will be gone quickly, and additional funding will be required.  Back to work, congress!

We have not only a jam-packed earnings calendar for the market to digest but also a busy week on the economic calendar that includes and FOMC meeting.  As US infections approach 1 million, the death toll tops 55,000, and unemployment numbers head toward great depression levels expect price action to remain very challenging with possible intra-day reversals and significant overnight gaps.  With the SPY opening, this morning 30% above the market lows I wonder how much longer the bulls can maintain the upward pressure.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A big day of earnings and economic reports will give today’s market a lot to digest.  With more than 22 million Americans out of work, there is an expectation that more than 4 million more will join them today.  Add to that more than 200 companies reporting earnings and wildly fluctuating oil prices; we have the stage set for another day of challenging price volatility.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight as South Korea reports a decline in fist quarter GDP.  European markets are hovering around the flat-line this morning, keeping earnings results in focus. US Futures are also relatively flat this morning ahead of a big day of data where anything is possible. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our biggest day of earnings this week, with more than 200 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include AAN, ALK, BX, COF, CTXS, DPZ, EW, LLY, FCX, HSY, ITW, INTC, IVZ, IRM, LOGM, PHM, LUV, TSCO, UNP, UAL, VRSN, GWW & XRX.

Top Stories

Traders will be keeping in an eye on the jobless claims this morning with an expectation of over 4 million additional Americans join the jobless rolls. There is also worry there will be a massive layoff of state and local governments with federal aid channeled elsewhere. 

Georgia’s governor has decided to begin reopening the business starting today even though their infection numbers have yet to show a decline.  The President said he disagrees with the decision to open os quickly.

Oil made a nice rally yesterday after the President issued a warning to Iran that harassment of tankers in the straight will no longer be tolerated ordering the US Navy to destroy violators. 

Technically Speaking

Although we had a nice gap up yesterday as oil prices began to stabilize, price action in the indexes was choppy and displayed considerable uncertainty.  On the one hand, we saw the bulls actively defending the support of the current consolidation.  On the other, the bears were active enough to prevent prices from filling the entire gap down of the day before.  Today the market will have to digest another round of Jobless Claims that may top more than 4 million, a reading on PMI as well as New Home Sales, amidst the biggest day of earnings so far this season.  The DIA and SPY continue to struggle with the resistance of a declining 50-day average while the QQQ enjoys the benefit of using its 50-day as support. 

Yesterday across the country, there were nearly 28,000 new infections reported, and over 2200 fellow, Americans, lost there lives.  As of this morning, the US death toll tops 84,000.  A grim reminder that recovery is still a long way off, and businesses face a very challenging environment as the country tries to emerge from lock-down.  We should continue to see volatile price action in the days and weeks ahead as we try to navigate uncharted waters.  Stay focused on price action and plan your risk carefully as we approach the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As oil prices continue to plunge, the Senate passes the 4^th major spending bill lifting the spirits of the US Futures.  The US House plans to vote on the $484 package later this week with money for small businesses, hospitals, and testing.  With a big day of earnings, reports, prepare for the volatile price action to continue.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher as they monitor the slide in oil prices.  European markets are currently trading in the green across the board this morning.  After a historic drop in crude, the US Futures point to a bullish open holding onto critical price supports and current trends.  However, with nearly 150 companies reporting, traders will have to remain flexible and focused on price as anything is possible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have nearly 140 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include DAL, AA, T, BKR, BIIB, SAM, CSX, DFX, KMB, KMI, LRCX, LVS, DEE, ORLY, DGX, STX, SAVE,& XLNX.

Top Stories

After the bell yesterday, the Senate Passed a 484 billion relief plan that includes aid for small businesses and hospitals as well as money to expand virus testing.  The bill now heads to the House that hopes to pass the legislation by the end of the week.

Netflix saw a considerable subscriber increase when it reported earnings after the bell yesterday.  The initial reaction sent the streaming service sharply higher, but after the conference call, prices settled lower, and now the stock looks to open slightly lower than yesterday’s close. 

Home sales dropped 8% last month, and there is a worry it could get worse as many people have chosen to delist their homes as virus impacts change consumer habits.

The meltdown in oil continues as Brent falls an additional 5% with crude futures dip below $11.00 per barrel.

Technically Speaking

The last couple of days of price action has the VIX back on the rise closing back above a 45 handle, as oil continues to plunge.  Today we get a reading on oil supplies, which may continue to add selling pressure as supplies outpace demand.  However, more help is on the way as the Senate passed the 4^th major spending bill to help small businesses, hospitals, including massive funds for testing.  Later today, the President plans to sign an executive order temporarily halting all immigration to slow the spread of the virus.  Legal challenges to the rule are likely. 

Although the recent pullback has raised the level of fear in the market overall, there has not been much technical damage to the index charts.  The QQQ experienced the most substantial selling on the day, but that’s not a big surprise because it was the most overextended index.  This morning even as crude oil continues to slide south, the US Futures point to a substantial gap up choosing to focus on the new 484 billion dollar relief bill that the House hopes to approve by weeks end.  We have a big round of earnings today, so expect price action to remain challenging and volatile.

Trade Wisely,

Doug