After hearing some sobering health officials testimony in congress, profit-takers rushed in at the end of the day, leaving bearish engulfing candle patterns on all the index charts.  Those that got short early will now have to deal with a morning gap up inspired by a proposed 3-trillion dollar stimulus bill the includes more direct payments to citizens.  Although the House plans to pass the bill, the Senate is currently suggesting it will be dead on arrival.  Expect more price volatility in the coming day as a result.

Asian markets closed the day mixed but mostly lower in a modest trading session.  European markets are lower across the board as virus reemergence fears weigh on investors.  Fueled by the prospect of more government debt spending, the US Futures point to a gap up open ahead of earnings, Powell comments, and the latest reading on PPI.  It could be a wild and woolly day, hold on tight!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump Day earnings calendar we have just short of 150 companies reporting today.  Notable reports include CSCO, JACK, SDS, & TCEHY.

Technically Speaking

After attempting to break resistance in intra-day price action, the QQQ finally found some profit-takers and the big-4 turned quickly south.  Health officials in congressional testimony gave a sobering opinion and warned that reopening the economy to soon could create a wave in new infections that may get out of control.  They said the chance of having a vaccine by the next school and college season is unlikely and warned of a resurgence of the virus next fall.  The report seemed to shake the overall market that has strongly rallied over the last month with very optimistic views of reopening.  Then overnight the House democrats unveiled a new 3-Trillion dollar stimulus bill that once again provides direct payment to citizens.  As usual, the prospect of newly printed money and governmental debt spending rallied the overnight futures that currently point to a significant gap up at the open.  The Senate has already stated it is unlikely to pass their chamber.

Yesterday’s closing selloff left bearish engulfing candle patterns near resistance levels on all the major index charts.  Unless there is an outside influence, a bearish engulfing candle suggests a follow-through down is likely.  However, this morning there is the possible 3-trillion outside influencers changing the prospect of follow-through and punishing those that took short positions.  To be fair even with yesterday’s quick selloff, there was no major technical breach with all the indexes hold above support levels and their 50-day averages.   However, it did offer up a quick reminder of how quickly the tide can shift and how dangerous a wide consolidation range can be when it does.  Plan your risk carefully and expect a bit more challenging price volatility for the rest of the week.

Trade Wisely

Doug

The hopefulness of the economic reopening and news of a possible democratic 2-trillion dollar stimulus bill written in private continued to inspire the bulls yesterday.  As the NASDAQ stretched its rally to 6-days in a row, the DIA, SPY, and IWM continue to struggle with overhead resistance.  The range of consolidation is quite wide, adding some danger to a possible pullback.  For example, the Dow would have to pull back as much as 1200 points just to test its 50-day average.  Plan your risk carefully as we approach price resistance.

Asian markets closed modestly lower overnight after reporting a miss in inflation data.  European markets are mixed as concerns rise over a coronavirus comeback.  US Futures are once again trying to put on a brave face pointing to bullish open ahead of the 8:30 AM CPI number that could double the negative reading from last month.  Will, it matter or will we continue to ignore?  We will find out soon.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Tuesday earnings calendar has just over 150 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include CSPR, DUK, GAIN, HMC, IR, LOGI, MAC, & TM.

Technically Speaking

The NASDAQ reached out for the 6^th day in a row as the big-4 continue to carry the majority of the weight.  The DIA, SPY, and IWM remain locked in a wide range of consolidation above their 50-day averages but remains challenged by overhead resistance.  The bulls are drawing energy from the hopefulness of the reopening of the economy, but health officials are warning that rushing opening will cause undue suffering and death.  Who’s right?  No one truly knows, and I’m not going to armchair quarterback their decisions, remaining grateful these difficult decisions are not mine!  With the death toll now over 81,000 and infections, nearly 1.4 million, I think the recovery will be long and very challenging. 

The T2122 indicator suggests that the markets are a bit stretched, but the upside momentum continues to favor the bulls.  Goldman Sachs reiterated their belief that the overall market will retract about 20% over the next 3-months while the house democrats attempt to write a 2-trillion dollar stimulus bill in private.  One thing for sure, the market has a lot to grapple with as we move forward.  Earnings season winding down the market will have to deal with the humbling economic numbers.  Today we get the latest reading on the CPI that consensus estimates expect to come in at -0.8, doubling from the prior month.  We also have a virtual parade of fed speakers, including comments from Jerome Powell on Wednesday morning.  Stay focused on price action and be careful not to overtrade as the indexes test resistance levels. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Good morning everyone.  Due to a Windows Update there will be no written blog this morning however if you follow the link below I will have a link to the late Morning Market Prep Video.  Sorry for the inconvenience but it was out of my control.

The tenacious bulls push indexes higher even as unemployment soars to 33 million.  The NASDAQ recovers all of the 2020 losses with as APPL, AMZN, GOOG & GOOGL do the majority of the heavy lifting even as the Absolute Breadth Index remains in a downtrend.  It would seem in light of unprecedented government spending the idea of working and company production is an outdated concept easily replaced by mountains of debt.  Will the historic Employment Situation number matter?  We will see in a couple of hours.

Asian markets rallied to end the week with Japan up more than 2%.  European markets are bullish across the board this morning, and US Futures continue to power higher this morning ahead of job numbers and earnings.  As we head into the weekend, don’t be too surprised if some profit-takers take advantage of the gap up, reducing risk.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Friday earnings calendar indicates about 150 companies will step up and report.  Notable reports include BLMN, EXC, TWNK, KIM, NBL, PPL, SEAS, SWCH, & VTR.

Technically Speaking

More bullishness yesterday as the indexes rose more than 1% as the NASDAQ recovers all of 2020 losses even as the country deals with 33 million unemployed.  Today the Employment Situation number is expected to report the worst jobs report in the countries history, but somehow that does not seem to matter.  How can this be?  I believe it is all in the weighting of the averages.  MSFT, AMZN, GOOG & GOOGL account for nearly 20% of the SP-500.  So is the SP-500 reflective of the actual market condition?  With the Absolute Breadth Index still showing a downtrend, one might have to answer that question with a no.  Combine that with trillions of dollar’s flooding in from government stimulus where debt no longer matters and an extremely accommodative central bank the SP-500 reflecting the actual market condition is all but impossible.

Technically the DIA, SPY, and IWM remain bullish but locked in a tightening consolidation pattern with the tech-heavy QQQ enjoys the majority of the benefits of the big-4 titans continue to rally.  I get asked the question nearly every day. How long can this continue?  My answer is always the same.  Stay focused on the price and trade the chart.  The trend is the trend until the trend breaks, and right now, it seems the bulls have an unquenchable desire for risk no matter the state of the economy.  That said, please remember that gap up opens near index highs, and price resistance levels have the potential to find profit-takers creating a pop and drop pattern.  As of now, US futures indicate a strong gap up open in total defiance of unemployment that may well continue through the end of the day.  However, don’t rule out the possibility that profit-takers could take advantage of the gap closing trades and avoiding the weekend risk.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Yesterday the bulls and bears battled it out in a choppy cage match that seemed to show some concern for the Jobless Claims numbers.  However, looking at the morning futures seems to indicate, we don’t care about unemployment.  I must admit the ability of the market to ignore history-making unemployment is not only fascinating but also quite troubling.  That said, the bulls remain in control, and index trends remain bullish as we head into 2-days of ugly job numbers.  Plan your risk carefully.

Asian markets closed mixed, but little changes as China reported that exports unexpectedly rose.  European markets are bullish this morning as BOE holds rates steady and US future point to a substantial gap up ahead of a gigantic day of earnings and jobless claims expected to add more than 3 million more unemployed.

Earnings Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have a gigantic day with more than 750 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ADT, AL, AMC, BUD, BALL, BIDU, BHC, BDX, BMY, ED, CTB, CUBE, DENN, DBX, IT, HL, HLF, HES, HLT, HFC, HST, IRM, JBLU, KTB, LYV, MAIN, MUR, NCLH, DOC, PFPT, RTX, ROKU, SKYW, STMP, SRCL, SPWR, SVMK, SYNA, TCO, TLRY, UBER, YELP, VIAC, & YETI.

Technically Speaking

After a day of very choppy price action that ultimately drifted south by the close now indicates a substantial gap up at the open.  In a story on CNBC, Morgan Stanley warns that the rally fueled by investor fear of missing out is not a good sign for the market.  I agree with that thinking and have said virtually the same thing over the last few weeks.  However, me agreeing with a CNBC talking head does not change the fact that the bulls are in control continuing to buy.  Index trends remain intact, and there are more good looking chart patterns than a person can buy.  Can we continue to ignore the massive unemployment, bankruptcies, negative earnings growth, and the future downgrades?  The US futures this morning seem to answer that question with a great big, yes, even with another 3 million in jobless claims expected!

Personally, it makes no sense to me, but as a full-time trader, my job is to trade the price action in the charts.  My bias and my understanding of why the market is acting in such a manner is not required.  Does that mean I should toss caution to the wind and ignore the technicals of the chart, such as support, resistance, and trend?  NO!  While the indexes continue to hold up-trends, we must recognize that the market continues to struggle with the price resistance above.  A big morning gap up ahead of Jobless report with price resistance above is not a reason to such into new trade risk.  In fact, it could be an excellent opportunity to ring the register and pocket some profits while watching for a possible pop and drop.  Long story short, irrational market price action is commonplace, and it’s the trader’s job to weigh the risk and reward without emotion, bias, or the desire to predict the unknown.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Everywhere you look, there are trending charts, stock holding support levels, and great trading patterns displayed.   However, on the other side, there is a growing concern of recession, rampant unemployment, and consumer debit hitting record highs.  All the problems thus far have been masked by government stimulus, but one wonders just how long that can continue.  What I’m saying is don’t become complacent and remember we have the Employment Situation number coming out Friday morning, and it will be hard to ignore.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, and European markets are seesawing between mild bullishness and bearishness this morning.  Ahead of the ADP report and a huge day of earnings reports the US futures to point to another gap up open.  Stay focused on price and remember a moring gap and easily be met by profit-takers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Hump day is a busy day on the earnings calendar, with 475 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include PTON, DDD, ALB, AEP, AWK, AMP, APA, AVB, GOLD, BG, CCL, CARS, FUN, CTL, COTY, CVS, DISCA, EPR, ETSY, EXAS, STAY, FTNT, FOSL, GM, GPC, GDDY, GRUB, H, IAC, LYFT, MRO, MET, NYT, ODP, PZZA, PYPL, RMAX, SHB, SMG, SHOP, SQ, TMUS, TWLO, WM, WEN, WING, WYND, & ZTS.

Technically Speaking

 It was great to see so many profits taken yesterday with the follow-through bullish price action.  It looks as if those that continued to hold overnight will see additional rewards this morning.  However, as we head into the jobless claim numbers on Thursday and the Employment situation on Friday morning, it may be wise exercise a bit more caution.  Everywhere you look, there are trending charts showing bullish patterns, but let’s keep in mind in just 3-days the Dow will have recovered 700 to 800 points from Monday’s low will once again test overhead price resistance.  Concerns of recession, mounting consumer debt, and the massive unemployment began to gain some traction yesterday after a Fed member painted a pretty grim picture going forward.

After the bell, the DIS report displayed the massive impacts of the virus and suggested the full effects will happen next quarter.  One benefit they did enjoy was the tremendous increase in their streaming subscriber base that topped 54 million.  Today the market will grapple with another 475 earnings reports and an ADP number at 8:15 AM Eastern with a consensus estimate of 20 million jobs lost.  So far, the market has been able to ignore the unemployment, choosing to focus on governmental stimulus.  That may be the case today, but I’m not sure the Friday number will easily be glossed over unless we hear of another big check from the government on the way.  I guess what I’m saying is not to become complacent.  Stay focused and take those profits the market provides because anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

It was an overall dull trading day until the news that the US Treasury plans to burrow 3 Trillion this quarter.  I guess that was music to the ears of the market, creating a sharp rally recovering yesterday’s losses to close in the green.  The bullish energy stayed with the futures all evening and now points to substantial gap up open ahead of earnings and economic data.

Asian markets closed mostly higher despite the big hit Hong Kong reported in the first quarter.  European markets are in rally mode this morning as more virus restrictions lifted, and the hope of recovery grows.  US Futures suggest a Dow bullish gap of nearly 250 points reversing yesterday’s selloff and proving support of the DIA and IWM 50-day average. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

With new additions, the Tuesday earnings calendar expects more than 375 reports today.  Notable reports include NEM, DIS, ATVI, AOS, ALK, AGN, ALL, BYND, BCO, CAKE, CC, DVA, DVN, D, DD, EA, FACU, FLR, ITW, I, J,  KGC, LC, TREE, LGIH, MPC, MAT, OXY, PINS, PLNT, PRU, REGN, RCL, STOR, SU, SYY, TRIP, W, WU, & WYNN.

Technically Speaking

It was a pretty bleak day yesterday with light and choppy price action until the report came out that the US Treasury planned to burrow a record 3 Trillion this quarter.  After the news, the market rallied strongly, confirming the market has no concern about debit as long as the money keeps flowing to the market.  The bullish energy continued overnight with the futures market rising, pointing to a substantial gap up open reversing Monday’s selloff.  California, Wahington, joins other states in getting back to business with limitations and new social guidelines.  The market seems to have gains some energy on the reopening even though many suggest its too early, worrying about the 2nd round of increasing infections.  Even Congress has returned to work wearing masks and indicating no more closures of the government. I’ll let you decide if that’s good news or not!

By the close yesterday, the DIA & IWM proved the 50-day average as support with this morning’s follow-through providing some conformation of the hold.  We have a big day of earings with over 375 companies reporting, but I’m not sure that matters.  We rally on good earnings reports, and we rally on bad earings reports choosing to focus on the trillions of governmental spending.  I guess massive debt negative earnings growth and 30 million unemployed is no match for the apparent unlimited checkbook of the government.  One has to wonder about the long-term ramifications of these decisions.  That said, the trend is bullish, the hold of support levels provides conformation, and we as traders must focus on the price action of the charts.  I don’t need to understand it or agree with the market decisions as long as I set aside my bias and trade the price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As the country begins the process of reopening the economy, the bulls and bears are grappling with what the new normal will look like as the battle with the virus continues.  So many questions, so much uncertainty, and the realization that the recovery will be very complicated until a vaccine becomes widely available will test investor’s resolve.  Add to that massive week of earnings reports, and the stage is set for a week of whipsaws and big morning gaps.

Asian markets closed the day mixed but mostly lower, with Hong Kong dropping more than 4%.  European markets are decidedly bearish this morning down more than 3% as US-China tensions rise over coronavirus.  US Futures have rallied off of overnight lows but still point to a Dow gap down or 200 to 250 points challenging it’s 50-day moving averages as support.  Prepare for another hectic week.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a hectic week of earnings reports.  The Monday calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report today.  Notable reports include O, AIG, AWR, CAR, CRUS, DLB, EXPE, HTZ, L, NNN, OHI, PETS, SRE, SHAK, SWKS, TXRH, TSN, WMB, and WH.

Technically Speaking

The question as to whether the market will follow-through to the downside seems answered with futures pointing to a substantial gap down open.  Now the question on everyone’s mind, will the 50-day moving averages serve as support?  If not, then we will have to rely on some key price supports to stop the selling.  The DIA support at about 232 looks the most vulnerable, with SPY having a bit more cushion around 275.  As the country begins to process of reopening the market is struggling with what the new normal may look like and will we be able to control the spread of the virus enough to not overwhelm the healthcare system.  With social distancing rules still in effect, can businesses even afford to open with lower volumes of consumer traffic? 

Airlines are in decline this morning after learning that Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stake in the industry due to the coronavirus impacts.  Not a big surprise when the Oracle of Omaha loses confidence in the industry sector.  With a massive week on the earnings calendar with around 1500 companies reporting, we should prepare for another volatile week of price action.  Intra-day whipsaws and significant overnight gaps remain likely and will prove challenging to navigate.  A week later than usual, the Employment Situation report on Friday could have a substantial influence on this week’s activity.  If the consensus estimates are anywhere close to correct, it’s going to be a difficult pill to swallow and harder to ignore than the weekly unemployment numbers.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As unemployment topped 30 million, the bears decided to return to work yesterday, and profit-takers took advantage of the best monthly market rally since 1987.  Earnings from AMZN & AAPL that disappointed investors keep the bears active in the futures market overnight, which now suggests a substantial gap down at the open.  However, at this time, all the indexes indicate they still have their 50-day averages below that could serve as support.

Asian markets closed with Japan falling nearly 3% while other markets were closed for holidays.  European markets are decidedly lower this morning with the DAX and CAC down more than 2%.  US Futures point to a gap down of more than 400 points ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Expect to hear, ‘Sell in May and go away,’ repeated over and over as we head into the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the first day of May, we have a lighter day on the earnings calendar, with about 100 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include CVX, CLX, ABBV, APO, CL, DISH, EL, XOM, HON, PSX, VTR, & WPC.

Technical Speaking

Disappointing unemployment numbers yesterday woke up the bears and brought out some profit-takers.   Overall this was the best month for the market since 1987, with the recovering 35% from the March lows.  After the bell, we heard for AMZN and AAPL, and both seemed to disappoint investors setting off an overnight selloff in the futures.  AMZN looks to open about $120 points lower this morning or about 5% while AAPL is down about 8 points or 2.75%.  These to tech bellwethers comprise a significant weight in the QQQ, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the index leadership as we begin May.

With the Dow Futures pointing to more than a 400 gap down on the first day of May expect to hear the old saying, ‘sell in May and stay away,’ repeated over and over by traders and the media.  After such a strong rally in the indexes, a pullback is not out of the question, but hope for an economic reopening begins; I’m not sure that old saying will carry much weight.  Even with the sizable gap down this morning, all the indexes so far indicate to open above their 50-day averages.  Will they hold?  Only time will tell, but with another day of earnings and economic reports, anything is possible.  Consider your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The FOMC reiterated it would do whatever is necessary for as long as it is needed to bolster the struggling economy.  Powell also called on Congress to provide some more stimulus as unemployment approached a historic 30 million.  A good round of tech earnings after the bell is also encouraging the bulls even though the indexes appear very extended.  With a big day of earnings and economic reports, expect the wild price volatility to continue.

Asian markets rallied on the hope of a coronavirus treatment overnight.  European markets have chopped between gains and losses this morning as they cautiously monitor economic data.  US futures are also very choppy this morning, heading for one of the strongest monthly rallies in decades.  Amazing considering the state of the economy and unemployment.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Thursday earnings calendar has more than 400 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include AMZN, AAPL, FLWS, MO, AAL, CHD, CI, CMCSA, COP, COR, DOW, DNKN, EXC, EXPE, FSLR, BEN, GILD, GT, HBI, IRM, K, KHC, MCD, MGM, TAP, MNST, PLNT, PSA, SPG, SIX, SO, SWK, TWTR, V, WELL, WDC,& WHR.

Top Stories

Jerome Powell said there is a need for more stimulus if we’re to see a robust recovery from the coronavirus crisis.  The FOMC has committed to keeping rates near zero until we see a return to full employment and a return to inflation.  The chairman said he expects the virus will affect the economy for another year, and the massive unemployment will be challenging to recover.

The GDP declined for the first time in a decade, falling more than economists had expected as consumer spending declined sharply.  The outlook for the 2^nd quarter is grim but also very unclear because of the unknown of the economy reopening and the possible resurgence of infections.

Today the nation’s joblessness is expected to rise to nearly 30 million or more.  In a matter of a few weeks, America went from record employment to historic unemployment.  Thus far, the market has been able to ignore these numbers, but the sharp decline in consumer spending reflected in the GDP number will make it challenging to ignore forever.

Technically Speaking

The bulls can’t seem to buy enough risk despite the disappointing GDP numbers and record unemployment rising more than 500 points yesterday.  The T2122 indicator has pegged at the top of the range as the rally continues to extend.  Yesterday the FOMC gave the bulls confidence once again reiterating they will do whatever is necessary for as long as they need to support the struggling economy.  However, Powell believes Congress will have to help out with additional stimulus spending expecting the historic unemployment situation to impact the marketplace for another year. 

A good round of tech earnings after the bell is also helping to bolster the bullish sentiment even though the indexes prices appear very extended.   Today we have more than 400 companies reporting, including AAPL and AMZN, after the bell.  We also face another disappointing jobless number before the market open that could raise the unemployed number above 30 million.  I know its hard to rationalize the horrific economic numbers against what we see as the market rallies.  All we can do is stay focused on price action riding this bull rally as long as it lasts because there is no telling how long or high it can go.  Just be prepared with a plan if it should suddenly stop and reverse to protect your profits.

Trade Wisely,

Doug