Bullish price action is very important today.
Yesterday the Bulls came out to play, but they left behind a price action gap that requires a defensive plan today. The one day pop was fantastic with many of us banking some tasty profits yesterday. However, if the Bulls fail to defend the gap, I fear the confidence felt by the market yesterday will quickly erode. So get out your pom-poms and cheer for the Bulls. If we see the index prices slip into the gap prepared for the possibility of a quick selloff to fill the gap. Keep in mind that as good as yesterday was the SPY, QQQ’s and IWM are still under resistance levels that have proved to be difficult to breach.
On the Calendar
Thursdays Economic Calendar begins with the weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM Eastern followed directly by the PPI numbers. Labor demand remains strong, and the jobless numbers are expected to continue that trend with forecasters expecting a 246k print this week. PPI, on the other hand, has remained rather soft coming in a 0.3% in May with consensus expecting only 0.2% in June. A great number in regards to inflation but not so much for the Labor force wages that continue to be flat. At 9:30 AM round two with Janet Yellen begins before the Banking Committee in Washington. Whatever she said yesterday seemed to inspire the Bulls, so let’s hope sentiment remains the same today.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 22 companies expected to report today. Among them is Delta Airlines which I am curious to see because of the sharp rise we have seen in airline stocks this quarter. DAL reports before the bell today.
Action Plan
The Bulls came out to play yesterday and stuck by enthusiasm all day. The SPY and the QQQ’s faired the best holding up well the entire day. The Bears were at work on the IWM and the DIA as we headed into the close but all in all the Bulls held their ground pretty darn well. Because we left a price gap behind it will be very important that the Bulls keep up their efforts following through today. Currently, futures are pointing to a higher open, but we will need to see how buyers react after the open. A pullback that fills the gap I believe would damage confidence in this rally reinforcing the resistance levels. So get-R-done Bulls!
All of our RWO positions did well yesterday and taking a one day gain +20% gain on BABA was a nice bonus. I wish we didn’t have to, but I think think it’s prudent to that we take profits in C today ahead of the Friday earnings. This trade performed very well, but there is just not enough cushion in the profits to safely hold through the earnings report. So, l will be taking the 20% gain in C today and suggest member do the same.
Trade Wisley,
Doug
Price resistance holds strong.
The Bulls tried once again to break through price resistance yesterday day but once again did not have quite enough energy to do so. The newly driven whipsaw left behind nice hammer patterns but it’s important to remember that that placement of this pattern is very important. A hammer pattern at support is important. The same pattern is drawn in a light volume rally that remains under resistance, not so much. If fact some might call it a hanging man pattern at price resistance. With the futures pointing to a gap up this morning, please keep in mind this is the perfect setup for a pump and dump whip whipsaw. Don’t allow the emotion whipped up in the premarket to influence your trading decisions.
On the Calendar
Today Economic Calendar is dedicated to Janet Yellen. The Fed Chair will deliver her opening statement in front fo the House Financial Committee at 8:30 AM Eastern. She will then follow that up with the semiannual monetary policy testimony at 10:00 AM. At 10:30 AM today we get the EIA Petroleum Status Report which last time showed a nice decline in supplies and helping oil companies find some support. Today lets hope this trend continues. At 2:00 PM is the Beige Book which may shed light on next FOMC action with the compiled data that influences their decision. Lastly at 2:15 PM we have another Fed speaker to round out the day.
There are 21 companies reporting earnings today as we slowly ramp up 3rd quarter reports. Please remember to make checking report dates part of your morning preparation.
Action Plan
Yesterday saw another day of choppy price action with a news-driven whipsaw tossed in for good measure. Unfortunately, the overall technical picture of the charts really didn’t change. Resistance continues to be stronger than the will of the Bulls thus far. The DIA remains the strongest of the indexes and the one most likely to lead the market higher if only it could break out. Currently, futures are pointing to a higher open but keep in mind the market will hang on each utterance from Janet Yellen’s mouth today. Be prepared for the possibility of whippy price action.
Flipping through the charts last night, I found a lot of possible setups for both long and short trades. Personally, I remain bullish on the overall market but the fact all the indexes remain under resistance levels leaves a reason for concern. With futures pointing to gap up into resistance I have to consider the possibility of a pump and dump. As a result, I will give the market at least 30 minutes after the open before considering new trades just to make sure the bullishness attracts real buyers.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Price Resistance proves stronger than the Bulls.
The Bulls stayed in control yesterday, but resistance levels proved to be stronger. It seems a lot of the Bulls decided to avoid the summer heat and hung out in the barn as volume was very low yesterday. Price action was understandably choppy as a result. Technically speaking nothing changed yesterday. Indexes remain under price resistance, and light volume rallies don’t inspire much confidence.
Boredom is dangerous for most traders. Rather than just sit and watch as we break discipline and trade just to have something to do. Allways keep in mind that you are the CEO of your trading business and it’s your job to maintain the discipline and stick to your plan.
On the Calendar
Tuesday’s Economic Calendar begins with the JOLTS numbers at 10:00 AM Eastern. This month job openings are expected to slip slightly lower to 5.975 million. Lately, openings have been running about 1 million above totals for hiring. Wholesale Trade is also at 10:00 AM but is normally a non-market moving number. We have Fed speakers at 12:30 PM and 1:20 PM to round out calendar today.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 17 companies expected to report earnings today. One to keep an eye on is PEP as the consumer defensive stocks have been showing signs of strength of late. If you are not already in the habit of checking earning reports before entering new trades now would be a good time to start. Next week we will begin ramping up with 100’s of reports daily. Not knowing can cost you a lot of money.
Action Plan
Yesterday saw the Bulls matain control but sadly lacked the energy to break overhead resistance levels. Futures are currently pointing to a flat to slightly lower open this morning. The overall market seems to lack inspiration and is simply marking time with choppy low volume price action. With both economic and earnings news continuing to be on the light side we may have to wait a little longer for that inspiration to appear.
I will be looking for new bullish trades today, but as we approach resistance levels, I must also keep my mind open for bearish positions if failure patterns begin to show up in the charts. The market itself is in a slow, plodding mood, so there is no need to rush into new trades. Even the best fo the best setups are having difficulty performing in this environment. Stay disciplined and always remember that cash is a position.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Friday’ relief rally requires follow-through.
It was nice to have a relief rally Friday taking some of the pressure off the market. However, that is all that it turned out to be because the Bulls lacked the energy to break resistance levels. I think it is entirely possible that was we saw and Friday was nothing more than a short covering rally short traders captured gains before the weekend. So today I need to see some follow-through by the Bulls and some proof they are truly there to support price.
Discipline to follow your rules and stick with your plan is very important in this market. Years ago I would allow times like this to chop my account to pieces trying to trade without a plan and a good set of rule to protect me. Not only would I see my hard earned capital disappear, but my confidence as a trader would evaporate as well. I call it Yo-Yo trading and it nearly destroyed me. Today as a confident and consistently profitable trader I can tell you it’s the plan and the discipline to follow rules that make the difference. Having a plan and profit or fail to plan and suffer the consequences. It’s all up to you!
On the Calendar
A light day on the Economic Calendar for this first full week of trading in July. We have a couple of insignificant economic reports a few bond auctions and a Fed speaker after 11 PM Eastern. The Earnings Calendar only has 11 companies that are reporting today. I would not expect any of the earnings reports today to be market moving.
Action Plan
As always my priority will be to manage the positions that I currently hold. After that, I will be looking for new trades and refining my watchlists. I will also look for possible short trades particularly if the failure patterns begin to emerge on the index charts near price resistance. With earnings just around the corner, we could see light volume and choppy price action all week. Plan accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Average Hourly Earnings In Focus
The Employment Situation report is always very important to the market, but today I think the focus will be on the Average Hourly Earnings. With three of the four major indexes closing below their 50-day averages this largely ignored number is likely to set the direction of the market today. I have been warning of caution for so long it’s become tiring, but my caution has paid by protecting my capital. Sadly I must continue to say caution is warranted. I think a relief rally is near, but that is not a signal of bullishness. We must keep in mind the index’s now must deal with overhead resistance. A rally could prove to be the time to sell not a time to buy. Also, remember with the VIX moving higher the possibility of very fast reversals increases so the traders must be prepared for anything.
On the Calendar
Today we get one of the most important reports on the Economic Calendar, the Employment Situation. Most of the time the market is laser focused on the Jobs creation number. However, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3% (considered as full employment) focus has turned to wage growth. If the U.S. consumer-based economy is to grow then, consumers need to have the ability to spend more. Wage growth has been lagging behind for years, and the market wants to see that change. Consensus suggests the average hourly earnings will improve from 2.5 to 2.6 this month. A reading of anything above 2.6 I believe the market will see as very bullish. If the number disappoints, I think we should expect Bears to gain strength.
Wage growth also signals rising inflation which in turn increases the likelihood that the FOMC will react raising interest rates. The true double edged sword! There is only one company, GRIF on the Earnings Calendar today which is obviously not a market moving event.
Action Plan
Yesterday we witnessed some hungry Bears pushing all the major indexes lower. The DIA chart now has the appearance of a double top forming while still clinging to a price support and above the 50SMA. That’s the good news! The bad news is that the SPY, IWM, and the QQQ closed the day below their 50-day averages. The VIX is showing that some fear created into the market yesterday while T2122 suggests we could be nearing a market bounce. So which way will it go?
I think the tie breaker today will be in the average hourly number at 8:30 AM Eastern. A number of 2.6 or better and I’m guessing we will see the market gap up. If the number comes in below 2.5, I think a gap down is likely. With that in mind, I will be keenly interested in how the market reacts to the Employment Situation report. Personally, I favor a nice relief rally, but oddly my phone isn’t ringing with the market asking for my opinion. Friday is normally not a day for me to consider buying new positions but if the opportunity arises, I will be prepared to do so.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Uncertainty continues to plague the market.
The choppy price action and violent reversals continue to plague the market. Emotional uncertainty seems to be the best way to describe current price action. As a result, many charts are displaying technical damage, raising the concern of a market top. Geopolitical events are also raising uncertainty levels adding additional risk to every trade. This morning the futures are pointing to a gap down which will break some important support levels. Those that were determined to trade yesterday will most likely see an unhappy result in their account this morning. Not every day is a good day to trade! Sometimes the best decision is just to stand aside and watch.
On The Calendar
We have a busy morning on the Economic Calendar today. We get it going with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM Eastern and quickly followed by International Trade and Jobless Claims at 8:30. The ADP number missed the mark last month over shooting by 106K! For June their guess for 180K jobs created. The International Trade gap is expected to narrow slightly to 46.2 billion from the 47.6 reading last month. Labor demand is expected to remain very strong with and expectation of 244K jobless claims which is unchanged from last week.
At 10:00 we get the latest reading on the ISM Non-Mfg Index which forecasters see coming in at 56.5 versus May’s 56.9 print. All eyes will be on the 11:00 EIA Petroleum Status Report which has been trending slightly lower. However, supplies have remained so strong oil prices have continued to struggle, and that is not expected to change much today. We have 1 Fed Speaker during market hours at 10:00 AM and then after the close today at 7:30 PM
We have 13 companies expected to report on the Earnings Calendar today. I would not expect any of the companies reporting to market-moving or particularly noteworthy.
Action Plan
Yesterday turned out about as expected yesterday with light volume and choppy price action. Technically speaking nothing changed in the charts. During the live session yesterday I gave my case caution looking over the four major indexes. Unfortuniantully, it would seem my concern is showing up in this morning’s futures currently suggesting a gap down at the open. Saber rattling with the North Korean dictator has intensified raising the level of uncertainty for the market. Also, keep in mind that the big Employment Situation report is tomorrow morning. Often the market is very choppy before this report so doesn’t be surprised to see another day of poor price action.
My overall plan remains the same. Manage current positions and continue refining my shopping list of potential trades. If I do trade, I will plan smaller than normal positions due to the price action risk of the market. Always remember Cash is a Positon.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Messy Contradictory Price Action Signals.
We are the middle of a big of a technical mess when it comes to the index charts. The DIA’s trying to make new highs at the same time the QQQ’s are trying to make new lows. As the SPY remains stuck below resistance, the IWM is showing strength. It is my opinion that contradictory price action signals such as this make the market a very very dangerous place for swing traders. The whippy price action and quick reversals are more suited for swift day traders. If you decide to trade, then prepare for anything. I suggest smaller than normal positions because stop outs will be commonplace and Emotions will likely run high.
On the Calendar
Today we start off with the Factory Orders on the Economic Calendar at 10:00 AM Eastern. Orders are expecting to see their second decline in a row with durables just down slightly, and nondurables such as energy remain weak. We must wait until 2:00 PM for the next report which is the FOMC minutes. It’s unlikely we will learn anything new from the minutes, but the market is typically choppy and tentative ahead of the number.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are 19 companies expecting to report earnings. One, in particular, YUMC, has had a lot of member interest lately so make sure you have a plan if you’re holding it as it reports after the close.
Action Plan
Monday the DIA tried to lead a full-on breakout reversing last Thursday’s selloff. Those that chased in were likely disappointed to see it whip back down before the close wiping out more than half of the day’s gains. The SPY also attempted an early rally but left behind a black candle below price resistance. The QQQ once again gave up support testing the lows of last Thursday and closing almost at the low of the day. IWM, on the other hand, managed to hold above support putting in a bullish morning star pattern.
Talk about a mixed bag of signals and technical mess to try and decipher in the charts. All of the whippy price action and contradictory directional signals is a head game I’m pretty sure I don’t want to play. Coming back after a mid-week holiday I think we could see lighter than normal volumes as may trader will likely extend vacations through to next week. Toss in the FOMC, and you have the formula for a perfect mess that could prove to be very dangerous. I think I will continue to stand aside as far as new positions until some of this mess gets cleaned up and a direction established. I will be looking for new trades, building shopping lists and refining them but it will take a nearly perfect setup for me willing dive into this emotional quagmire.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Beware Price Gaps Below Resistance.
It is always wise to beware price gaps. When they occur below resistance levels after a significant selloff, I want to focus on the price action and avoid the emotion a gap can create. The fact that the market closes early today and will likely lack volume makes we want to avoid it all together. Do as you like, but as for me, I will be standing aside. NYSE closes at 1 PM today, and Tuesday the market is closed so plan accordingly.
On the Calendar
The Economic Calendar begins the first trading day in July with the PMI Manufacturing numbers at 9:45 AM Eastern. Last month PMI slowed to 52.1, and consensus suggests it will remain steady for June. At 10:00 AM we get the most important report of the day, the ISM Manufacturing Index. Earlier this year ISM peaked at 57, but forecasters are calling for a 55.1 print in June which is a slight improvement over May. Construction Spending is also at 10:00 AM today which is expected to show improvement with a 0.5% gain.
There are nine companies expected to report earnings today. I don’t expect any of them to be market-moving reports. Keep in mind that today marks the first trading day of the 3rd quarter. That means we will soon be right back into earnings season. Make it a habit of checking for earnings reports on every position you are in and every new trade you are considering. Failing to do so can be a costly mistake.
Action Plan
Friday saw nice relief rally, but by the end of the trading day much it was given back with a quick move lower. As expected, most of the day saw very choppy price action. Futures are currently pointing sharply higher suggesting a gap of nearly 70 points at the moment. Let’s keep in mind that today is only a partial day of trading. The big gap open will most likely meet with light volume trading after the morning rush. It would also be wise to notice that all the major indexes will still be below resistance levels.
As for me, I plan to do no trading at all. If I were planning to add risk today, there is not a chance that I would chase the gap up open. I would give it at least 30 minutes trading and make sure that real buyers step in to support the gap. Remember gap up opens into resistance levels are subject to whipsaw price action. Chase in and you could find yourself buying at the highest price of the day entire day.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
High Volatility and Challenging Summer Trading Likely Lies Ahead
Yesterday likely marked the beginning of challenging summer trading with high volatility tossed in for goo measure. As a general, rule summer markets are difficult to trade with lots of choppy price action. As it turns out, summer seems to have come late this year dispelling the old saying, sell in May and stay away. The other challenge we could face is that the market may be a significant market high. A correction that many would say is way overdue. Let’s avoid all the predicting and just focus on price action because the clues will be there if we are unbiased. Also, remember that a market pullback is not a personal attack on you so don’t fight it. Think of a correction as a Mega Sale at your favorite store where we could get the chance of getting much better deals on quality products.
On the Calendar
The last trading day in June the Economic Calendar only has three items of concern. We start off at 8:30 AM Eastern with the biggest number of the day, Personal Income, and Outlays. The consumer is expected to slow down in May as is the personal income however consensus suggests that food and energy will rise. Thus, the overall number is expected to come in unchanged at 1.5%. At 9:45 we get a reading on the Chicago PMI which has been steadily increasing the last four months to 59.4 but the forecast for today indicates a pullback to 58.2. Last but not least we get a reading on Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM which fell back 2.6 points in May to 94.5. Consensus suggests it will hold stable at that number for June.
The Earnings Calendar is giving us a break today with only two companies reporting, EROS and OSN. A big winner after the bell yesterday was NKE. It will be nice if this old friend of mine gets back in a trend because it has proved to be an excellent money maker in the past.
Action Plan
Yesterday was an ugly day for the market breaking support levels and creating significant technical damage to the index charts. The end of day rally was a sweet relief and with the futures pointing to a gap up open some of the bearish pressure will be released. Just remember V-bottoms are rare and we should expect yesterday’s lows to see a retest in the near future. We will now have to tune into possible failure patterns at or near resistance.
Today my plan is to take the day off! We can expect after the morning rush to see volumes drop off quickly as may traders will be starting the 4th of July Holiday early. I will also not be trading on Monday. Tuesday the market is closed, but I will be back in the saddle Wednesday morning rested and ready for the challenges of summer trading.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Bullish Follow-through is vital.
With the surprising strong move yesterday that it is vital we see some bullish follow-through price action today. There is no question the market as of late has proved it is capable of producing big whips in price, but the ability to follow-through is an important element the market has lacked the energy to do. Will today be different? Only time will tell. Another big question to ponder is how much risk are you willing to take with holiday trading likely to begin tomorrow. As for me I plan to trade smaller than normal positions and will take profits quickly if I do decide to step onto the playing field.
On the Calendar
Thursday begins with a significant number on the Economic Calendar. At 8:30 AM Eastern we get a reading on the 1st quarter GDP. If there is one number this week with the power to make a break the market, it would be the GDP number. Forecasters expect the number to come in unchanged at 2.2%. The question is can the market support these record high prices if the GDP continues show par growth in the economy? Also at 8:30 we will get the Weekly Jobless Claims which are at historic lows and consensus suggests this week’s reading will not change this bullish number.
Other than that, we have a Fed speaker at 1:00 PM and several non-market moving events to round out the day. On the Earnings Calendar, we have 35 companies reporting today such as AOBC, RAD, NKE, MU and CAG just to name a few members should be aware of as they plan the day.
Action Plan
Yesterday was a surprising whip back up on the back of easy money policy in Europe. The VIX is once again testing historical lows and raising the concern of complacency. The SPY is now right back in the narrow range chop zone where it has proved to be very difficult to trade due to the multiple reversal signals it has produced. The DIA and the IWM are looking strong yet still closed under high resistance. The QQQ’s had an impressive day holding support, but the overall the index remains in a downtrend and price is still below resistance.
As you plan the day keep in mind end of quarter window dressing could still be in play. We must also consider the 4th of July holiday on Tuesday and the effect that will likely have on volume moving forward. I would expect Friday and Monday to very light and choppy trading days so plan your risk accordingly. Friday and Monday I have decided that I will be taking off to enjoy my family during the holiday. Of course, I will continue to write the morning note and produce a morning video but other than that plan to be gone. Consequently, the RWO session for Friday and Monday has been canceled. With the market closed on Tuesday well will get back to work with regular schedules on Wednesday morning.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Yesterday the Bulls came out to play, but they left behind a price action gap that requires a defensive plan today. The one day pop was fantastic with many of us banking some tasty profits yesterday. However, if the Bulls fail to defend the gap, I fear the confidence felt by the market yesterday will quickly erode. So get out your pom-poms and cheer for the Bulls. If we see the index prices slip into the gap prepared for the possibility of a quick selloff to fill the gap. Keep in mind that as good as yesterday was the SPY, QQQ’s and IWM are still under resistance levels that have proved to be difficult to breach.
