Choppy price action slightly favors the Bears.
Yesterday the Bears had a tiny edge as the market moved south with choppy price action. It’s very important on to get lulled to sleep during slow and grinding markets. Big whips remain a strong possibility around index highs. Also, keep in mind that summer price action is often light on volume making it even more challenging to trade. Stay focused on price, stick to your rules and strive for your goals. Everything else is just distracting noise.
On the Calendar
The lite Economic Calendar continues today with the weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM Eastern. Claims have been tracking lower all year pointing to strong demand for labor. This week the forecasters expect only a tiny bump up from last week but still very low overall. After that, a 10:00 AM we have a Fed speaker and a bucket full of bond announcements that will largely go unnoticed by the market.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are 27 reporting earnings today to be aware of if you are holding or thinking of entering them as new positions. BERY is one that many were watching yesterday that reports after the bell.
Action Plan
DIA, SPY, and IWM all dipped lower yesterday with slow and grinding price action. As of now, I would say no technical damage to the charts has occurred. The VIX, although just slightly higher continues to show no fear of a breakdown and remains near historic lows. The QQQ’s managed to close higher yesterday despite the weakness of its fellow indexes. My guess is the burst of bullishness comes from the positive earnings seen in companies like RHT and ADBE. Keep in mind that the QQQ’s remain under price resistance and still has a lot of work to do if it intends to breakthrough
Futures are pointing to a slightly lower open this morning. I’m expecting that choppy and whippy price action will continue today. If the Bears don’t soon show some strength breaking below supports then start watching for a bounce. I will be looking for new trades, but I continue to plan to keep them small due to the choppy price action.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Another day, another reversal.
On the close of Monday, it looked like the market had picked a direction Tuesday delivered another potential reversal signal. This kind of price action is not uncommon at or near market highs, but that doesn’t help us as traders when we continually receive reversal patterns. Ond day everything points to Bulls in control, but before you know it, tide shifts and Bears appear to gain control destroying your confidence and chopping up your account. The only way to avoid this to stop trading but that’s not something most of us want to hear. We want it, and we want it NOW! As for me, I will continue to trade, but I plan to trade less only taking the best fo the best setups. I also intend to trade smaller than normal positions to diminish my overall risk in the event I’m whipped out, by yet another reversal.
On the Calendar
The hump day Economic Calendar has a couple of important reports for the market to chew on this morning. First off at 10:00 AM Eastern time we get the Existing Home Sales number which was disappointing in April. Today the consensus says we should see a rebound to a 5.550 million annualized rate. There some concern that rising home prices might affect this number going forward. At 10:30 AM is the EIA Petroleum Status Report. The number last time continued to show a decrease in overall supply, but it was not enough to stop the decline in oil prices.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 14 companies expected to report results today. There two big tech companies MU and ORCL that report after the close. Both companies will be important to the QQQ’s index to heal some of the technical damage it has suffered recently.
Action Plan
Yesterday saw light volume choppy price action most of the day. At the end of the day, the Bears gains strength pushing the SPY lower nearly filling the entire gap left behind on Monday. The DIA remained stronger avoiding a bearish engulfing candle by a tiny margin. With the reports from ADBE and FDX coming in strong after the close I was expecting to see the futures in positive territory, but as of now, they are showing slight weakness.
Adding new risk has been difficult as the market chops and whips around. Just when you think the all clear has sounded and we get price action that raises a lot of concerns. I will continue to look for new trades, but until I see this market settle down, I plan to take smaller positions. If I’m not whipped out, I can always add to the trade later. Remember activity does not equal achievement. Trading less or not trading at all during choppy times protects your capital.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Fearless market gaps to new record levels.
Price action is showing amazing confidence as the fearless market gapped up and ran to new record levels yesterday. I must admit at these levels leaving gaps behind gives me pause, but the overall direction of the market is clear. The Bulls are in control, so I will continue to trade with the trend until price action provides clues to the contrary. Naturally, we all have a bias but it is the successful trader that sets it aside allowing the market to work for them rather than fighting it. We all want to be right but would you rather be right or profitable?
On the Calendar
Another light day on the Economic Calendar. There are 3 Fed Speakers as some bond auctions but no economic reports of note. The Earnings Calendar shows 21 companies reporting today including a few important name like ADBE, FDX, RHT, and LEN. FDX can move the market because many feel it is an indicator pointing out the health of the consumer. The report from FDX will not occur until after the market closes today.
Action Plan
The DIA displayed amazing strength yesterday gapping up and continuing up to new record highs once again. Also, the SPY dramatically improved, leaving a gap behind and managing a new closing high. The QQQ’s and the IWM lagged behind but managed to close near the high of the day. Fear once again is extremely low and only about 1 ½ points from new record lows.
There is no question that the Bulls are in control although volumes were slightly light yesterday. It is as if the market is melting up without concern. I have to admit that makes me a little nervous but all I have to do is to continue to trade with the direction of the overall market. The trend is up, so I will continue looking for long positions as long as that continues to be true. However, at these price levels, it is important not to become complacent. So I will be very focused on price action and prepared if clues of weakness start so show. Although I will be trading long, I will also increase my aggression when it comes to capturing gains. Swift reversals can occur around market highs. I will not allow winning trades to become losers.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
The Bulls maintain control.
There is no question that Bulls maintain control when looking at the daily index charts. The DIA in particular looks like smooth sailing with nothing blue skies ahead. Although calm on the surface, we all know there has been a lot of turbulence. Big price swings intra-day has made it a very challenging market for swing traders. With VIX retesting historical lows the only the DIA reaching out for new highs with a gap up open I want to stay calm and avoid chasing at the open. I am not suggesting a whipsaw will occur but I want to point out the potential exists. I will need to some follow-through buying after the gap this morning before making any new decisions on risk.
On the Calendar
A very light day on the Economic Calendar today. Other than a few bond auctions we hear for a Fed speaker at 8:00 AM eastern and then another after the market close at a 7:00 PM. There are only five companies reporting earnings today none of which are likely to move the overall market.
Action Plan
Last week’s volatility keeps the caution flags flying high. Three times last week the market made sharp moves lower giving everyone the reason for concern. However, with the DIA leading the way with whippy intraday price action it always managed to recover. The pre-market futures are very positive this morning pointing to new record prints for the DIA. The SPY, IWM and QQQ’s however still have price pattern that less than impressive and should give us reason look carefully before leaping.
As you know, I am always very watchful of potential whipsaws price action at or near market highs. With the DIA breaking out and all the other indexes lagging behind it would seem to be the perfect setup for that possibility again. So keep and close eye and avoid chasing at the open.
It is also very important to avoid bias and just follow the market. The DIA is displaying bullishness, and there is currently nothing suggesting it is ready to reverse or even slow it’s progression higher. On the other hand SPY, IWM due suggest weakness is possible. The QQQ’s has suffered some major technical damage that as has a lot of work to do before it cold be considered bullish. I will be looking for new long trades today, but I will not chase right after the open. I will need to see that real buyers are stepping and that the gap up is not just another institutionally created pump and dump.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Whippy price action increases risk.
The whippy price we have been experiencing is pretty typical as a market struggles with new highs. However, it’s that same whippy price action that chops up traders and increases the risk on every trade they make. We never know how long a period like this will last. It’s the wise trader that recognizes the additional risk and curtails their trading activity and decreases the size of trades during higher risk periods. It’s so easy to lose hard earned profits fighting volatile price action. Always remember Cash is a position.
On the Calendar
There is no question that this has been a big week on the Economic Calendar. Today we get a little break with only three noteworthy items. First, we will get the Housing Starts number at 8:30 AM Eastern. The April number was a disappointment. However, forecasters see them bouncing back in May to a 1.2 million annualized rate. At 10:00 AM we the latest reading on Consumer Sentiment which has been trading very strongly this year. The consensus is suggesting that will continue with a 97.1 print.
After only a brief break we will once again start seeing the Fed speakers back on the news tour. Today we have one speaker at 12:45. The Earnings Calendar is also giving us a break today with only one company expected to report. The company ticker is UTSI, and they have not confirmed the time of the report.
Action Plan
Yesterday we experienced yet another major whipsaw as the market try to decipher what to do at these highs. For the last ten days, the Spy has chopped in a range of just over 2 points and often visiting both sides of the range each day! The DIA has seen big point swings every day yet has managed to maintain an uptrend in the process. Needless to say, it has become a very challenging market for swing traders due to the volatility. I would like to say it’s over, but there is no reason to believe that today won’t be more of the same so again I’m suggesting caution.
Overall the trend is still bullish thus I will continue looking for long positions, but if I find good trades, I will reduce the trade size until I see extreme whips come to and end. To successfully trade whippy market stops have to widen to avoid intraday whips from constantly tripping stops. So, in conclusion, I suggest trading small if you decide to trade at all.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Volatile Price Action raises questions of a top.
The volatile price action yesterday makes me question if we are truly experiencing a topping pattern under construction. If so it can be a very dangerous time to trade. Tops will normally display a lot of false price reversals and nasty intraday whipsaws. It may be time to reduce trading activity, so we don’t get chopped up in the volatility. If you have not already considering raising cash in your account it may now be the time. Always remember that Cash is a position.
On the Calendar
We kick off this Thursday on the Economic Calendar with Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM Eastern. Claims have been very low, and the forecasters expect them to continue to move lower today. Also at 8:30 is Philly Fed Business Survey which has been exceptionally well. Backlog orders have been rising month over month but the expectation for today is for a very slight pullback in the number. We still have two less important number at 8:30, Empire State MFG as well as the Import and Export prices.
At 9:45 is the Industrial Production number where the consensus is suggesting a 0.2% gain to 76.8% which is very strong. We have a Housing Market Index report at 10:00 AM and the Treasury International Capital at 4:00 PM, but both are unlikely to move the market unless they come in with a big surprise.
Action Plan
Looking at the futures this morning, I am very happy to have been cautiously sitting on the sideline yesterday. If you were there with me, then you are also enjoying the relief of know that your capital is safe while the market goes through its gyrations. The whipsaw after the Fed numbers was a nasty one and I wouldn’t want to rule out the possibility of more today.
I would expect a lot of fast moving price action this morning. If the Bears really take control, we could see some panic of a top move into the market. However, if the Bulls continue to fight back as hard as they have been doing lately, then we could easily see a full reversal back up. Unfortunately, unless you are an experienced day-trader, it would best just to stand aside and protect your money. I plan to continue being very cautious and don’t expect I will be adding any new risk this morning.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
No fear ahead of today’s huge data dump.
The bulls show no fear at all as we head toward the FOMC announcement and calendar full of big reports. I would not be at all surprised to see choppy price action today. Swift whipsaw moves are not at all out of the question as with all the data the market will have to chew through. With the VIX close to testing historical lows once again it would be wise to remember how quickly no fear can shift to panic. I plan to do a lot of watching from the sidelines today.
On the Calendar
Today the Economic Calendar is a doozy. It kicks off with two very big reports at 8:30 AM Eastern, Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales. Consensus estimates expect the CPI to come in on par with last month’s number of 0.2%. Retail Sales is also expected to come in relatively flat with only 0.1% growth, as consumer spending remains weak. At 10:00 we a reading on Business Inventories which is expected to stay very low at 0.1%. The all important EIA Petroleum Status number comes out at 10:30.
At 2:00 PM we will finally get the FOMC Announcement on interest rates followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30. On the Earnings Calendar, there are 30 companies reporting today so make sure to keep checking.
Action Plan
The market remains tenaciously bullish with the Dow making new all time highs and the SP-500 carving out a new all-time closing high. The VIX is once again pushing lower and may again test all-time low levels of fear. Even though the overall market keeps marching higher, it has become increasingly challenging to make money. The whippy price and surprisingly sharp drawdowns test even the most experienced traders.
With this huge data dump today I plan to move very slowly watching price action closely. I expect to see very choppy price action this morning, and potentially swift whipsaw moves as the market digests all the data. Personally, I won’t rule out adding new positions, but I will most likely just enjoy the show from the sidelines. I have had a fantastic year so far, and I see no need to charge head first into danger. My method is to be more like a sniper, waiting quietly for the shot picture to clear before pulling the trigger.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Price action is decisive but support holds.
It was encouraging to see positive price action and the DIA, SPY, and IWM holding price supports. Even the technically damaged QQQ managed to stave off additional selling. Price action, however, proved to be very two-sided and whippy. As a result, the markets left behind indecisive patterns that will keep me on the side of caution. The market faces a massive data dump tomorrow as well as a rate decision from the FOMC. Don’t be surprised if we continue to see choppy price action and indecisiveness today.
On the Calendar
Today begins the FOMC meeting that culminates tomorrow afternoon with their decision on interest rates and Yellen’s Press Conference. Also on the calendar today it’s the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM Eastern and a Fed speaker at 1:45 PM. PPI rebounded slightly in April, but services remained weak pointing to a concern of demand weakness. Consensus sees the number increasing by 0.1% with food and energy at 0.2%.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 32 companies reporting today. I don’t see any potential market moving earnings reports, but it is always wise to check your holdings and new purchases for reporting dates.
Action Plan
With the FOMC rate decision looming I think could see a lot of chop and whippy price action as we wait. Odds of a rate increase are running in high 90’s percentile. As of right now, the overall market seems to be taking the likely rate increase in stride showing fell ill effects. The four major indexes held up better than I would have expected after Fridays surprise tech sector selloff.
Futures are currently pointing to a slightly bullish open and except for the technical damage in the QQQ overall the market remains bullish. However, there is a huge wave of data coming at on Wednesday, and I feel the need to remain quite cautious when considering new risk. I will not rule out adding new positions today but keep them smaller than normal, and I will need to see the Bulls showing better commitment overall. Choppy anemic price action just won’t get it done.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Friday’s whipsaw has caution flags flying high.
The Friday afternoon whipsaw was simply Nasty! It left traders counting up losses on stopped out trades where just a couple hours earlier they had been looking at gains. It also quickly spiked fear and once gain reminded us how dangerous complacency becomes at or near market highs. At a minimum, Friday was a warning that we must always be at the top of our game and a “safe” market does not exist. As for me, I will be approaching today’s market with extreme caution and a very watchful eye on price action. Was this a one-off event or a warning of trouble ahead? Only time will tell.
On the Calendar
The Economic Calendar begins with a whimper today but will roar like a lion by mid-week when the FOMC comes front and center. Today, however, we only have a few bond auctions and the Treasury Budget that comes out at 2:00 PM Eastern. Although it should be shocking that May is expected to produce an 87.0 billion dollar Federal deficit, it will pass without notice. In truth 87.0 billion is a slight improvement over last years numbers.
On the Earnings Calendar only ten companies reporting earnings today none of which are overall market movers. Always remember to check earnings on each and every stock you hold and are thinking about purchasing. There is no excuse for being surprised by an earnings report.
Action Plan
Friday’s wild price action ride amounted to a very nasty whipsaw. I ended up closing a couple of positions in response to preserve some small gains. Caution lights began flashing all over the place as I looked through charts and that caution remains this morning. Futures are currently pointing to a slight gap down open today but what we will have to pay very close attention to is how traders react after the open.
The VIX after hitting a new low record low Friday morning rather suddenly shot up 28% but settled up only 14% by the close. That kind of volatility is difficult even the most experienced traders. As a result, I am suggesting that new or struggling traders should stand aside, watch and wait. Price action like this could turn out to be nothing, or it could be a warning of turmoil ahead. I will manage my current positions, but I will be waiting for good price action clues before even considering new risk.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Shooting stars and doji’s abound.
As I looked through the charts last night, I saw a lot of shooting stars and Doji’s at highs which are considered bearish. I also saw a lot of indecisive doji’s at highs and in consolidations. Both of these conditions would warrant significant caution. However, there was also a lot of very bullish patterns and some fantastic looking charts. What’s a guy to do? Yesterday was a very emotional day for the market due to the congressional hearings. There were several full reversal whipsaws during the day making charts very convoluted. As of now I’m staying bullish on the overall market and may even consider adding some risk ahead of the weekend, but I will give the market a good 30 minutes to an hour to settle in before making any decisions.
On the Calendar
A very light Friday on the Economic Calendar with only a couple reports with little to no significance. On the Earnings Calendar, it’s much the same with only eight companies reporting. None of which should be market moving. Truly the quiet before the storm, because next week we have one of the fullest calendars of market moving reports I’ve seen in a long time. Of course, the biggest is the FOMC decision on interest rates.
Our news filled day yesterday turned out to be a non-event the U.K. elections could create some turmoil abroad and is worth noting. Long story short, the Prime Minister lost so may key seats it would normally force her resignation. However, she is refusing to resign and will now seek the approval of the Queen to form a government. Let the drama begin!
Action Plan
As you know Friday is normally my day to take some profits and a day I usually restrict myself from adding new positions. However, with the decks, somewhat cleared for the President to proceed with his plans; And the house passing the bill that removes much of the Dodd-Frank debacle I’m thinking of adding risk. The big banks began a rally yesterday, and I would expect that to continue today. Futures have the chances of that the FOMC will raise interest rates next week above 95% which should help the banks even more. Hince, I will be looking for an entry in the financial sector. Stay tuned.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Yesterday the Bears had a tiny edge as the market moved south with choppy price action. It’s very important on to get lulled to sleep during slow and grinding markets. Big whips remain a strong possibility around index highs. Also, keep in mind that summer price action is often light on volume making it even more challenging to trade. Stay focused on price, stick to your rules and strive for your goals. Everything else is just distracting noise.
