U.S. stock futures climbed early Monday as investors geared up for a week packed with economic data and awaited potential new tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. In the premarket, steel and aluminum stocks surged, with U.S. Steel and Nucor both gaining 8%, Cleveland-Cliffs up 9%, and Alcoa trading 4% higher. The looming threat of additional tariffs came as investors prepared for several key economic reports, including January’s consumer price index on Wednesday, followed by initial weekly jobless claims and the producer price index on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was also set to address Congress on Monday morning. Investors anticipated major corporate earnings reports from McDonald’s on Monday and Coca-Cola on Tuesday.

European stock markets kicked off the week positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 rising 0.35% at the open. Key regional indexes, including the U.K.’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40, and Italy’s MIB, all saw a 0.3% increase at the start of trading. BP shares surged over 8% following news of an activist investor Elliott Management’s stake in the company. Thyssenkrupp, one of Europe’s leading steelmakers, stated it expects a “very limited impact” on its business if the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The company emphasized that Europe remains its primary market, and it only exports high-quality niche products to the U.S., where it maintains a solid market position.

Asia-Pacific markets presented a mixed performance on Monday amid ongoing trade tensions, leaving investors cautious. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 remained flat, while the Topix index saw a slight decline of 0.15%. The country reported a 3% year-on-year loan growth in January, down from December’s 3.1%. In South Korea, the Kospi closed unchanged, but the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.91%. China’s CSI 300 Index edged up by 0.21%, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rising significantly by 1.76%. China’s consumer inflation reached a five-month high in January. Conversely, in India, the Nifty 50 index dropped by 0.91%, and the BSE Sensex index fell by 0.87% following the Reserve Bank of India’s anticipated interest rate cut, marking the first reduction in five years.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Monday before the bell include CNA, EPC, HAIN, INCY, MCD, MNDY, ON, ROK, ROIV, TSEM, & TGI.

After the bell reports include AMKR, ACGL, ARWR, ALB, ACLS, BTG, BRX, CINF, CMCO, CMP, CXW, COTY, FLNC, HLTI, INSP, KRC, LSCC, MEDP, MITK, SSD, SPSC, VRTX, VNO, & WTS.

News & Technicals’

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) instructed its employees to work remotely until February 14th due to the closure of its Washington, D.C., headquarters, as per a memo from CFPB Chief Operating Officer Adam Martinez. This directive follows an email from the newly appointed acting director Russell Vought, who on Saturday ordered the suspension of almost all regulatory activities, including the supervision of financial firms. Additionally, Vought announced on social media that he was cutting off fresh funding to the agency, criticizing its past lack of accountability.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, adding to the existing duties, though no timeline for implementation was provided. These metals are essential in industries such as transportation, construction, and packaging. During his first term, Trump had already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico, and the EU, along with volume restrictions on imports from countries like South Korea, Argentina, and Australia. A Congressional Research Service report revealed that in the first five months of this policy, the Trump administration generated over $1.4 billion in revenue from these tariffs.

New projections for the federal Pell Grant program indicate a potential $2.7 billion funding shortfall later this year. Pell Grants, a crucial source of financial aid for low-income families, support approximately 40% of college students. Michele Zampini, senior director of College Affordability at The Institute for College Access & Success, warned that without additional funding, students might experience eligibility or funding cuts for the first time in over a decade.

Mega cap technology companies are set to significantly increase their investment in artificial intelligence and datacenter buildouts in 2025, with planned expenditures reaching $320 billion. Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have all outlined ambitious spending initiatives based on recent comments from their CEOs. This figure marks a substantial rise from the $230 billion spent in 2024. Amazon has the most aggressive investment plan, with CEO Andy Jassy announcing the company aims to allocate over $100 billion, up from $83 billion the previous year. The funds will primarily support AI developments within Amazon Web Services, which Jassy describes as a “once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity.”

Monday gives us a data break but the rest of the we should expect price volatility with a week packed with economic data.  Toss in the threat of new tariffs and we have a recipe for significant uncertainty. Bonds are already moving slightly higher with the worry of inflation so plan carefully and be prepared for some big point swing as we move through the week.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

U.S. stock futures trade flat following two consecutive winning sessions for major averages. However, semiconductor companies experienced declines in extended trading, with Qualcomm, Arm, and Skyworks Solutions losing approximately 5%, 4%, and 29%, respectively, after releasing their latest quarterly results. Ford Motor also saw a nearly 5% drop after projecting a challenging 2025. Despite initial concerns over tariffs announced by President Donald Trump—specifically a 10% levy on Chinese imports—investor sentiment improved as the president temporarily halted duties on Mexican and Canadian goods.

European markets experienced gains as investors analyzed earnings reports and awaited the Bank of England’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The Stoxx autos index managed to recover from early losses, trading 0.6% higher despite ongoing concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs this year. Meanwhile, Sweden’s Volvo Cars saw a 9% drop after cautioning that 2025 would be a challenging year, with intensified competition from Chinese EV manufacturers and slower market growth. The Bank of England is anticipated to announce its first interest rate cut of the year during Thursday’s policy meeting.

Asia-Pacific markets showed positive momentum with most indexes trading higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.23%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.61%, and the Topix added 0.25%. South Korea’s Kospi increased by 1.1%, and the small-cap Kosdaq advanced by 1.28%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.04%, with Mainland China’s CSI 300 up by 1.26%. In contrast, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex both saw declines of 0.48% and 0.43%, respectively. Investors are closely watching the Reserve Bank of India’s ongoing policy meeting, anticipating an interest rate cut aimed at stimulating the country’s struggling economy, with the decision expected on Friday.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, BWA, BMY, GOOS, CLFD, CMS, COP, LLY, EMBC, ENTG, EFX, EQX, AGCO, GTES, HAE, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, IDCC, IQV, ITT, K, KELYA, KVUE, LH, LSPD, LNC, LIN, MTSI, MKTX, MCFT, MDU, NVT, OMCL, OTEX, PATK, BTU, PTON, PBH, RL, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TRI, TW, UAA, VVV, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUMC, & ZBH.

After the bell reports include AFTM, AMZN, ATR, BILL, BYD, CPT, NET, CNO, CDP, CUZ, DOCS, ELF, EGP, EHC, ESE, EXPE, EXPO, FTNT, FBIN, G, GPRO, HUBG, ILMN, INVX, LESL, LGF.A, LITE, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NMIH, ONTO, PCTY, PECO, PINS, POST, POWL, PFG, PRO, QLYS, QNST, REG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, STEP, SYNA, TTWO, VREX, VRSN, VCTR, WBTN, WERN, & WPM.

News & Technicals’

Investors are eagerly anticipating the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to shed light on the U.S. employment landscape. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predict that 175,000 jobs were added last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. Additionally, investors are awaiting the latest weekly jobless claims report on Thursday and are keen to hear speeches from Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly. Notably, the ADP reported on Wednesday that private payrolls increased by 183,000 jobs in January, surpassing the 150,000 forecasted by economists and improving upon the 176,000 jobs added in December.

Shipping giant Maersk’s shares surged by over 10% after reporting fourth-quarter profits that exceeded expectations, despite ongoing trade uncertainties. The company’s earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 26% to $12.13 billion for the full year, with the fourth quarter alone reaching $3.6 billion, surpassing analysts’ forecasts1. CEO Vincent Clerc attributed this success to strong global trade and a robust price environment, although Maersk anticipates softer earnings for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has rebranded and shifted its primary focus towards Bitcoin. The company introduced a new name, and logo, and adopted an orange brand color to reflect this change. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Strategy reported the acquisition of 218,887 bitcoins for $20.5 billion, bringing their total holdings to 471,107 bitcoins, which accounts for approximately 2% of the total supply. Despite recording a fourth-quarter net loss of $670.8 million from its legacy software operations, the company is progressing well on its $42 billion capital plan to acquire more bitcoins. CEO Phong Le highlighted the strong support from both institutional and retail investors for this strategic direction.

Qualcomm kicked off 2025 with a strong Q1 earnings report, posting record revenues of $11.67 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.41, up 24% from the previous year. The growth was driven by a 20% surge in chip sales, particularly in the smartphone sect or1. However, concerns over the company’s licensing business following the expiration of a key agreement with Huawei led to a nearly 5% drop in stock price during after-hours trading. Qualcomm remains optimistic about its future, with promising forecasts for Q2 and ongoing diversification into automotive and IoT chips

Shaking off tariff worries the bulls have rushed back in to test price resistance levels with two consecutive winning sessions after the Monday recovery.  Volume, however, has been less than impressive and the market breadth has been on the decline.  That said, keep an eye out for possible big point whipsaws if the bears find any reason to attack.  As always focus on price action and plan your risk carefully as we test market highs.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures fell on Wednesday after earnings from Alphabet and AMD as the tech giants disappointed investors, dragging the tech sector down. Apple’s decline further pressured futures, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund dropping 0.7% in premarket trading. Apple’s 2.7% fall followed a Bloomberg News report that Chinese regulators were considering a formal investigation into the company’s App Store fees and policies. This situation unfolds amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.; over the weekend, the U.S. imposed a 10% levy on Chinese imports, and China retaliated with tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. goods.

On Wednesday, European markets displayed mixed performance as investors continued to scrutinize regional corporate earnings. Spanish lender Santander announced a 14% year-on-year increase in annual profit, reaching €12.6 billion ($13.1 billion) for 2024, with full-year revenues in constant currency rising 10% to €62.2 billion. In contrast, French oil major TotalEnergies reported a significant drop in full-year earnings due to lower crude prices and weak fuel demand. The company posted an adjusted net income of $18.3 billion for 2024, a 21% decline from the previous year’s $23.2 billion.

Asia-Pacific markets exhibited mixed performance on Wednesday, following an overnight rise in Wall Street, as the region responded to Trump tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index initially gained but later reversed course, ending the day down 0.58%. China’s Caixin Services PMI for January registered at 51.0, down from December’s 52.2, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.97%. In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 saw a modest rise of 0.09%, while the broader Topix index climbed 0.27%. South Korea’s Kospi increased by 1.11%, and the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.54%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.51%, whereas India’s benchmark Nifty 50 traded close to the flatline.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday before the bell include ARCC, ARES, ATS, AZTA, TECH, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, CTRI, CRTO, DAY, DIS, EMR, EVER, FSV, FI, GIL, GSK, GFF, HOG, ITW, JCI, KMT, KLC, NYT, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SOBO, SR, SARO, SWK, TROW, TKR, UBER, VSH, & YUM.

After the bell reports include AFL, ALGN, ALL, AOSL, AMTM, ARM, ASGN, AVB, BKH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CNBD, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, CSGS, CURB, DLX, DHT, DGII, APPS, ENS, NVST, EQH, FR, F, FORM, FNV, GL, HI, HOLX, HMN, PI, KMPR, LB, RAMP, MFC, MCK, MET, MSTR, MAA, MCK, MOH, MUSA, NTGR, NWSA, ORLY, OHI, PYCR, PTC, QGEN, RDN, RYN, RRX, REXR, SAFE, SIMO, SITM, SWKS, STE, STC, SU, SYM, TENB, TTMI, UDR, UGI, VKTX, & WEX.

News & Technicals’

The U.S. Postal Service announced on Tuesday that it is temporarily suspending all inbound packages from China and Hong Kong Posts, effective immediately and lasting “until further notice.” This suspension does not affect letters and large envelopes, also known as “flats,” sent from China and Hong Kong. The de minimis provision, which has been pivotal for Chinese e-commerce companies like Shein and PDD Holdings’ Temu to offer low-priced goods in the U.S., is under scrutiny. Lawmakers argue that de minimis imports give Chinese firms an unfair advantage by allowing them to bypass tariffs. Trade officials have also noted that these packages are subject to minimal documentation and inspection.

Apple shares declined on Wednesday following a Bloomberg report that Chinese regulators are contemplating a formal investigation into the company’s App Store fees and policies. The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) is scrutinizing Apple’s practices, which involve taking up to a 30% commission on in-app purchases and restricting third-party payment services and app stores. This development coincides with China initiating an antitrust probe into Google earlier this week, though specific details about the latter investigation have not been disclosed by the market regulator. The prospect of heightened regulatory scrutiny in China has raised concerns among investors, impacting Apple’s stock performance.

Alphabet shares experienced a significant decline of over 9% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. This followed the company’s announcement of fourth-quarter results that fell short of revenue expectations, coupled with plans for increased artificial intelligence investments. Although Alphabet’s overall revenue grew by nearly 12% year over year, this was a slowdown compared to the more than 13% growth seen in the same quarter last year. Additionally, revenue growth for its search business, YouTube ads business, and services unit was slower compared to a year ago. The company revealed plans to invest $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, a figure surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of $58.84 billion, as per FactSet. For the first quarter, Alphabet anticipates capital expenditures to range between $16 billion and $18 billion, indicating its continued focus on expanding its AI strategy.

AMD reported a net income of $482 million, or 29 cents per share, for the fourth quarter, down from $667 million, or 41 cents per share, in the same period last year. The company’s adjusted earnings per share excluded costs related to acquisitions, inventory loss at contract manufacturers, and restructuring charges. AMD’s data center sales grew to $3.86 billion, marking a 69% increase year-over-year, driven by strong sales of its Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs, which compete with Intel’s processors. However, this fell short of the $4.14 billion that analysts polled by FactSet had anticipated. For the entire year, AMD’s data center division revenue surged 94% to $12.6 billion, with $5 billion attributed to sales of its Instinct GPUs for AI.

With huge spending plans for 2025, the some tech giants disappointed investors yesterday dragging the futures lower for Wednesday.  Apple is also feeling some pressure this morning as China looks to probe the company for potential illegal practices.  However, there is some good news this morning with the dollar moving lower we may be seeing worries of continued inflation beginning to subside.  Plan carefully it could be another day of big price swings.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures showed slight declines on Tuesday following China’s tariff retaliation on U.S. Starting February 10, the Chinese government will impose tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. imports of coal and liquefied natural gas, along with 10% higher duties on crude oil, farm equipment, and selected cars. Investors are gearing up for a significant earnings week, with Alphabet, Merck, and PepsiCo set to report their results on Tuesday, followed by Amazon and Eli Lilly later in the week. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December and durable orders are due to be released on Tuesday, providing further economic insights.

On Tuesday, European stocks experienced a downturn as investors closely watched U.S. trade policy developments. UBS shares dropped by 5% following the lender’s unimpressive fourth-quarter results and up to $3 billion share buyback plans. The European beverages industry also faced a decline; shares of spirits maker Diageo fell by 3.7% after the company removed its medium-term guidance and warned that tariffs might hinder its sales recovery. Similarly, shares of industry peers Davide Campari, Pernod Ricard, and Fevertree all saw reductions of more than 2% as the market reacted to these developments.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a positive uptick on Tuesday, with several indices showing substantial gains. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged by 2.83%, fueled by China’s imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports. Japan’s key indicators also reflected growth; the Nikkei 225 ended with a 0.72% rise, and the broader Topix index climbed by 0.65%. South Korea’s Kospi index increased by 1.13%, accompanied by a notable 2.29% gain in the small-cap Kosdaq. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained unchanged, closing at 8,374 after erasing earlier gains. Indian markets demonstrated solid performance, with the Nifty 50 advancing by 1.19% and the BSE Sensex index rising by 1.12%. Chinese markets, however, remained closed in observance of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include AMCR, AME, ARMK, ADM, ATI, ATKR, BALL, BERY, CNC, CNH, CIGI, CMI, ENR, EPD, EL, RACE, ROXA, IT, GPK, HLNE, HUBB, INGR, INMD, J, KNSA, KKR, LANC, MPC, MRK, MPLX, MSGS, OCSL, PYPL, PNR, PEP, PFE, PJT, SLAB, SPOT, TDG, UBS, ULS, WEC, WTW, & XYL..

After the bell reports include GOOGL, EGHT, ATEN, AMD, ALGT, DOX, AFG, AMGN, APAM, AZPN, ATO, AZEK, CSL, CMG, CRUS, COLM, DEI, EA, ENVA, ENPH, ESS, FICO, FMC, GBDC, HRB, THG, ICHR, IEX, INTA, JKHY, JNPR, KLIC, LUMN, MTCH, MAT, MRCY, MOD, MDLZ, MWA, NOV, OI, OMC, OSCR, PRU, RUSHA, SPG, SKY, SMAP, NUM, VRNS, VLTO, VITA, WU, & ZWS.

News & Technicals’

Several European leaders who were once considered strongmen, and who are aligned with populist leaders, are now seeing a decline in their popularity and influence. This shift comes as these leaders face rising dissatisfaction among their constituents and struggles within their own parliaments. Analysts attribute this trend to a potential shift away from populist movements in Europe. While some of these leaders recently avoided votes of no confidence, their waning public support suggests a weakening grip on power.

U.S. Treasury yields exhibited mixed movements on Tuesday as investors weighed President Donald Trump’s 30-day tariff pause and awaited further economic data. By 6:25 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had risen by 3 basis points to 4.575%, while the 2-year Treasury yield saw a minor decline, falling by less than a basis point to 4.257%. Markets experienced a sense of relief on Monday when Trump announced a 30-day tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada, following both countries’ commitment to implementing measures to prevent the trafficking of opioid fentanyl into the United States.

PepsiCo reported mixed results for the quarter on Tuesday, attributing the decline in North American demand for its snacks and drinks as a contributing factor. Shares of PepsiCo fell by less than 1% in premarket trading. The company reported a fourth-quarter net income of $1.52 billion, or $1.11 per share, an increase from the previous year’s $1.3 billion, or 94 cents per share. When excluding restructuring, impairment charges, and other items, PepsiCo earned $1.96 per share. Despite the rise in net income, net sales saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, totaling $27.78 billion.

Merck recently issued its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, which fell short of Wall Street’s expectations due to a decision to halt Gardasil vaccine shipments to China from February through at least mid-2025. Despite this, Merck reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by strong sales from its top-selling cancer drug Keytruda, other oncology medicines, and its newly launched cardiovascular treatment.

Although Mexico and Canada provided concessions to back of tariffs for 30 days China issued its own a tariff retaliation beginning on 10^th.  We will have to see if it is just their opening salvo for negotiations or the true beginning of a trade war.  Nonetheless, we will have to remain vigilant as the big price swings may continue in the days ahead. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures dropped sharply as a new trading month began, as tariffs triggered the bears. This moves escalated fears of a full-blown trade war that could potentially disrupt global supply chains. The automotive sector was notably affected, with U.S. automakers that rely heavily on North American supply chains leading the decline. General Motors’ shares fell by 6.8%, while Ford saw a 4% drop in premarket trading. Auto suppliers, including Aptiv and Avery Dennison, experienced losses of 5% and 4% respectively. Engine maker Cummins also saw a 3% decline. However, not all sectors faced the downturn—steelmakers such as Nucor and Steel Dynamics each gained 4% in premarket trading.

European markets took a hit on Monday, marked by notable declines in the automotive sector. Shares of French car parts supplier Valeo plummeted 7.5%, while automaker Renault saw a 1.8% decrease during early morning trading. The German car industry also faced setbacks with BMW’s shares falling by 4%, Volkswagen dropping 6.3%, and Porsche declining by around 4%. Broader market indices followed suit, as Europe’s tech, industrial, and mining sectors each shed more than 2%. Additionally, Germany’s DAX index was 1.7% lower in early trade.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a significant downturn on Monday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 led the losses, falling by 1.79%. Japan’s indices also faced substantial declines, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 2.66% and the Topix losing 2.45%. South Korea’s major indices followed suit, as the Kospi fell 2.52%, and the small-cap Kosdaq plunged 3.36%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index showed a relatively smaller decrease of 0.3%, while India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.56%. Meanwhile, Chinese markets remained closed in observance of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Monday before the bell include IDXX, NSSC, SAIA, TWST, & TSN.

After the bell reports include ACM, BRBR, CBT, CSWC, CLX, EQR, FN, DOC, JJSF, KFRC, KD, MTG, NJR, NXPI, PLTR, RMBS, TEM, & WWD.

News & Technicals’

On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced that trade tariffs would be imposed on the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (U.K.), though he hinted that a potential deal with Britain could still be reached. In an interview with the BBC, Trump criticized both the U.K. and the EU for their trade practices, claiming they were “out of line,” with the EU being the more egregious offender. He suggested that tariffs on EU goods could be implemented “pretty soon,” highlighting his frustration that while the U.S. takes in various European products, the EU restricts imports of American cars, farm products, and other goods. This move marks another escalation in trade tensions under Trump’s administration.

In January, euro zone inflation accelerated to a higher-than-anticipated 2.5% on an annual basis, driven by a significant jump in energy costs, according to flash data from Eurostat released on Monday. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, remained steady at 2.7%, unchanged since September. Meanwhile, services inflation saw a slight decrease, inching lower to 3.9% in January from 4% in December. Notably, energy costs surged by 1.8% compared to the previous year, marking a sharp rise from December’s modest 0.1% increase. This data underscores the ongoing inflationary pressures within the euro zone, particularly in the energy sector.

On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields displayed a mixed performance as investors assessed the economic implications of President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on goods from key trade partners. At 5:32 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had declined by 2 basis points, settling at 4.547%, whereas the yield on the 2-year Treasury had risen by over 3 basis points, reaching 4.272%. This variation reflects market uncertainty and investor caution regarding the potential impact of the tariffs on the broader economy. Additionally, investors can anticipate a series of manufacturing and jobs data releases throughout the week, with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and the Manufacturing ISM report both set to be published on Monday. These reports will provide valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and may influence market sentiment further.

According to an investment bank’s forecast, China’s real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% this year, with domestic price growth remaining under pressure due to weak demand, leading to a predicted consumer inflation rise of just 0.4% in 2025. Last year, consumer price inflation barely grew, increasing by only 0.2% year on year. Higher U.S. tariffs could further strain domestic prices as external demand for Chinese goods weakens. On Monday, the Chinese yuan plunged 0.60% to 7.3631 against the U.S. dollar in offshore trading, before trimming losses, as reported by LSEG data. Since Trump’s presidential victory in early November, the offshore yuan has lost 3.7% of its value. Despite the economic challenges, the bank has not revised its 2025 baseline forecast of 4.0% GDP growth for China, considering additional U.S. tariffs of 60% on a quarter of China’s exports and greater policy support from Beijing.

The bulls are in retreat as the tariffs triggered the bears to attack all around the world.  Think carefully and try not to panic.  Remember big gaps can produce substantial whipsaws but I expect the price action could be very fast and challenging for the next several days. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

U.S. stock futures climbed on Thursday with a pending GDP report as Wall Street processed recent quarterly earnings reports from several major tech companies. This followed a down session after the Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates. More earnings from the “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected, with Apple reporting on Thursday and Amazon scheduled for next week. Key economic data releases include the fourth-quarter GDP reading and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, followed by Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index report for December. Investors are closely watching these reports for insights into the health of the economy and potential future Fed policy moves.

European stock markets advanced on Thursday as investors considered a range of important earnings reports and economic data releases, while also anticipating the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming monetary policy announcement. The ECB is widely expected to initiate its first meeting of 2025 with a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction. This anticipated cut would lower the key overnight deposit facility rate to 2.75%, representing the fifth such decrease since the central bank started loosening monetary policy in June of the previous year.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 and the S&P/ASX 200 both gaining ground. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.25%, while the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.55%. However, not all stocks were winners. Shares in SoftBank Group fell 1.06% after the company announced it was in talks to invest up to $25 billion in OpenAI. On the economic front, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include FLWS, AOS, ALGM, MO, ABG, AVY, BHLB, BX, BFH, BIP, BC, CNQ, CAH, CRS, CAT, CVE, CHKP, CMCSA, CFR, COV, DT, FRME, FCFS, FLG, GIL, IP, KEX, LHX, MBUU, MAN, MMC, MA, MBLY, MUR, NTCT, NOC, OSK, PH, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, RES, SNY, SCSC, SNDR, SHW, SIRI, LUV, STM, CI, TMO, TSCO, TT, UPS, & VLO.

After the bell reports include AAPL, ATGE, ABCB, APPF, AJG, TEAM, BKR, BZH, CNI, CLS, COUR, DECK, EMN, FHI, GEN, HIG, HTH, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PPG, RMD, SKYW, STEL, X, VIAV, & WY.

News & Technicals’

DeepSeek’s claim that its R1 model surpasses OpenAI’s o1 while costing significantly less has raised questions about the massive expenditure on AI by major tech companies. While this claim has prompted some to reconsider the cost of AI development, many experts remain skeptical. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the scrutiny surrounding DeepSeek, the emergence of such claims is generally viewed by AI scientists as a positive development for the advancement of the industry.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg downplayed the potential impact of DeepSeek’s new AI model, stating it’s too early to assess its effects on Meta and the tech industry. He also refuted the idea that DeepSeek’s reported efficiency breakthrough would lead to reduced AI spending at Meta. Zuckerberg emphasized his belief that significant investment in capital expenditures and infrastructure will continue to be a key strategic advantage for the company going forward.

The euro zone economy stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2024, with zero growth, according to flash estimates from Eurostat. This missed economists’ expectations of 0.1% growth and followed a stronger-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter. Disappointing results from the bloc’s largest economies, Germany and France, contributed to the flat growth. Germany’s GDP decreased by 0.2%, while France’s economy also contracted slightly. Additionally, Italy’s economy showed no growth for the quarter.

A midair collision between a military helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet on Wednesday night has tragically ended a period of exceptional commercial air travel safety in the United States, marking the worst such disaster on U.S. soil in over 15 years. American Eagle Flight 5342, carrying 60 passengers and four crew members, was nearing Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport at an altitude of approximately 300 feet when it collided with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter carrying three people.

Expecting another uncertain day starting the pending GDP report that is expected to show a slowing in the economy and the report for the AAPL after the bell should also create considerable price volatility. Indexes remain extended so plan your trading carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures hovered near the flatline on Wednesday as investors awaited the first Federal Reserve interest rate decision and big tech reports. On Tuesday, tech stocks led the S&P 500 higher, while the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2%, recovering from sharp losses on Monday triggered by concerns over China’s DeepSeek and its potential impact on the artificial intelligence sector. Investors are particularly focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during his first press conference in President Donald Trump’s second term. Additionally, a series of Big Tech earnings reports, including those from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla, are expected on Wednesday afternoon.

European markets saw an uptick on Wednesday as investors closely watched a series of corporate earnings reports. Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML reported fourth-quarter net sales and profits that exceeded expectations, with net bookings—a crucial measure of order demand—surging by 169% from the previous quarter. Additionally, LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods company, surpassed sales forecasts in its earnings report released after the market closed on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Japan and Australian stocks experienced gains as Wall Street’s overnight rebound provided a positive momentum. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.02%, while the Topix index increased by 0.68%. The release of minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December meeting revealed discussions on neutral interest rates, highlighting the ongoing debate on adjusting borrowing costs amidst inflation rates exceeding the 2% target. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index climbed by 0.57%, driven by a 0.2% rise in inflation for the December quarter and a 2.4% annual increase. Several Asia-Pacific markets, including China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India, remained closed in observance of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday before the bell include AIT, ASML, ADP, AVT, EAT, GLW, DHR, EXP, EXTR, FSV, FLEX, GD, DPI, HES, HESM, LII, MNRO, MSCI, NDAQ, NAVI, NSC, PB, SMG, SLGN, SBSI, TMUS, TEVA, UBS, VFC, & WNC.

After the bell reports include AEM, AMP, AXS, BHC, BHE, CHRW, CALX, CP, CCS, CLB, DLB, ETD, FIBK, IBM, LRCX, LSTR, LEVI, LBRT, META, MXL, MTH, MSFT, NFG, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, TER, TSLA, TTEK, URI, WM, WDC, WHR, & WOLF.

News & Technicals’

Global market attention is focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first-interest rate decision of 2025, scheduled for Wednesday. According to CME Group data, Fed funds futures indicate nearly 100% certainty that the central bank will maintain rates within the target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Despite this high level of confidence, investors will closely monitor the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference for insights into the future trajectory of interest rates this year.

Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund reported a full-year profit of 2.5 trillion kroner ($222.4 billion) on Wednesday. Managed by Norges Bank Investment Management, the fund’s impressive returns were largely fueled by the AI boom that propelled tech stocks higher in 2024. The fund achieved a return on investment of 13% for the year, reflecting the significant impact of advancements in artificial intelligence on the market.

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision of 2025. By 5:49 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield had decreased by 2.5 basis points to 4.524%, and the 2-year Treasury yield had dropped by 1 basis point to 4.191%. Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, remarked on CNBC that minimal action from the Fed would be favorable for the market. Following the rate decision announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, which investors will scrutinize for insights into future monetary policy decisions this year.

Apple supplier Qorvo experienced a swift reversal in its stock price after issuing a warning about potential weakness. Initially, Qorvo shares surged over 13% following the announcement of better-than-expected earnings. However, the stock’s momentum reversed after CEO Robert Bruggeworth commented on sales to the company’s largest customer, forecasting flat to modest revenue growth for FY 2026. Although Qorvo did not name the customer, it was revealed that this customer accounted for just over half of the company’s revenue in the December period.

Caution is the word of the day for me with the uncertainty of the interest rate decision and big tech reports extreme price volatility is possible.  Plan your risk carefully, avoid the fear of missing out chase and think about protecting your current profits and account capital.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

US futures markets traded flat to slightly higher on Tuesday morning, with select tech attempting to recover from the previous day’s steep sell-off in AI-related companies. Nvidia rebounded by over 5% after experiencing a nearly 17% decline on Monday, which resulted in a market cap loss of almost $600 billion — the largest one-day drop for a U.S. company in history. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted that while valuations remain extended and vulnerabilities were anticipated this year, developments like DeepSeek underscore the importance of diversifying beyond the “Mag Seven.”

European stocks experienced gains on Tuesday, rebounding from a global sell-off driven by concerns over a potential artificial intelligence breakthrough in China. Leading the charge was biopharmaceutical firm Sartorius, which surged 12% after announcing it had met profitability targets and maintained a “cautiously positive” outlook for 2025 in its preliminary full-year release. Meanwhile, British engineering firm Smiths Group disclosed it was addressing a hacking incident involving unauthorized access to its systems. The company is collaborating with cybersecurity experts to recover the targeted systems and assess any broader business impacts.

Asian markets showed mixed performance on Tuesday, influenced by various regional factors and holiday closures. While Taiwan, South Korean, and Chinese markets remained closed for holidays, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended the day with a modest gain of 0.14%, despite only trading for half a day due to the New Year holiday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell by 1.39%, marking its second consecutive day in negative territory, while the Topix remained flat at 2,756.90. Conversely, India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices saw gains of 0.97% and 1.07%, respectively, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of plans to inject over $17 billion into the financial system. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.12% lower, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include ADNT, BA, CVLT, GM, IVZ, JBLU, KMB, KNSA, LMT, PCAR, PII, BPOP, PGR, RCL, RTX, SAP, SYF, SYY, & XRX.

After the bell reports includeASH, AX, BXP, CB, FFIV, FCF, HLI, LC, LFUS, MANH, NXT, PKG, PFS, QRVO, RNR, RNST, RUSHA, SBUX, LRN, SYK, TRMK, UMBF, & VBTX.

News & Technicals’

Investors are shifting their focus to the upcoming corporate earnings reports this week. Starbucks and Boeing are set to release their earnings on Tuesday, drawing significant attention. Additionally, several key players from the “Magnificent Seven” group, including Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple, are scheduled to report later in the week. These reports are highly anticipated as they could provide crucial insights into the performance and future outlook of these major companies.

The Federal Reserve is set to begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with market expectations strongly indicating that interest rates will remain unchanged. According to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rates. Investors are also eagerly awaiting the release of inflation data on Friday, which will provide further insights into the health of the U.S. economy and potentially influence future monetary policy decisions.

Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek is facing potential curbs from the U.S. government as it disrupts the U.S. AI ecosystem. Experts note that enforcing restrictions on an open-source technology like DeepSeek could be challenging. The startup’s rapid rise has cast doubt on the effectiveness of Washington’s efforts to limit China’s access to advanced technology due to national security concerns. On Monday, U.S. lawmakers called for measures to slow down DeepSeek, labeling it a “serious threat.” One proposed action is for the Commerce Department to create rules requiring tech giants like Apple and Google to remove DeepSeek’s app from their platforms, thereby restricting its availability in the U.S. market. However, removing the app from other platforms, such as Github, would be more difficult.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is set to address investors on Tuesday, who are eager for clarity on the company’s strategy to overcome ongoing manufacturing issues following its sixth consecutive annual loss. Preliminary results released by Boeing on Thursday indicate an expected fourth-quarter loss of $4 billion and revenue of $15.2 billion, falling short of analysts’ expectations. The company has reported charges across its commercial aircraft unit and its defense and space business, affecting various aircraft, including the Boeing 767, the KC-46 tanker, and the long-delayed pair of 747s designated to serve as the new Air Force One planes.

This morning, we have tech attempting to recover but be very watchful of price action because yesterday’s Deepseek news may have exposed the very high valuations in this sector.  Uncertainty is likely as we approach the tech giant earnings from MSFT and META on Wednesday directly after the FOMC decision.  Buckle up the next few days could prove to be very challenging.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures plummeted on Monday amid fears of an AI stock bubble bursting, triggered by the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek, which reportedly developed a competitive AI model at a significantly lower cost. This led to substantial premarket losses for major tech companies: Nvidia fell by 12%, Broadcom by 13%, and AMD by 6%. Microsoft saw a 7% decline, while Palantir dropped 8%. Other tech giants, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, also experienced losses exceeding 4% each. Adding to the market’s anxiety, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday, with Fed funds futures indicating a more than 99% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool.

European markets started the week on a downbeat note, reflecting investor caution ahead of a busy earnings season and the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision. This negative sentiment was echoed in Asian markets and Wall Street futures, driven by weak tech performance. The rise of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has raised concerns about the global leadership of established U.S. tech giants in the AI sector. Consequently, European chipmakers ASML and ASM International saw significant declines in their share prices, dropping 8.4% and 11.6%, respectively.

In January, China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted, with the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) falling to 49.1, below Reuters’ estimate of 50.1. Despite an 11% year-over-year increase in industrial profits in December, annual profits declined for the third consecutive year. In response to its struggling stock market, China introduced new initiatives to promote the growth of index investment products. Meanwhile, markets in Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea were closed for holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index saw a modest rise of 0.51%, while the mainland CSI 300 dipped by 0.41%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell by 0.92%, but the Topix managed a slight gain of 0.26%.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Monday before the bell include T, BOH, HOPE, & SOFI. After the bell reports include ARE, BRO, CR, ELS, GGG, NUE, PCH, SANM, SBCF, TRNS, WRB, & WAL.

News & Technicals’

U.S. technology firms experienced significant declines in premarket trading, driven by concerns over the competitive threat posed by Chinese startup DeepSeek. This company recently launched a free, open-source large-language model, developed in just two months for under $6 million, a fraction of the cost incurred by Western counterparts. Adding to the turmoil, DeepSeek’s new reasoning model reportedly outperformed OpenAI’s latest in several third-party tests. These developments have sparked a global sell-off and raised questions about the substantial investments big tech companies have been making in AI models and data centers.

On Sunday, the U.S. and Colombia averted a potential trade war after Colombia agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants. This decision came after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs and sanctions against Colombia for initially refusing these flights as part of his broader immigration crackdown. In a late Sunday statement, the White House confirmed that Colombia had accepted all of Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported migrants on U.S. military aircraft, thus avoiding the imposition of the threatened penalties.

U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting and awaited key inflation data. This week is expected to be eventful, with the Fed scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Newly inaugurated President Donald Trump has added pressure on the Fed, expressing his expectation for lower interest rates during a keynote address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. Despite this, traders are pricing in a more than 99% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. In its December meeting, the Fed projected only two interest rate cuts for 2025.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, which will provide new insights into the health of the U.S. economy. This week is also significant for earnings reports, with four of the “Magnificent Seven” companies—Meta, Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla—set to announce their results. Additionally, major companies like Starbucks, Boeing, General Motors, Visa, and Exxon will be reporting their earnings, making it a crucial period for market watchers.

This morning some big questions emerged about tech US dominance and one of those questions is the AI stock bubble bursting?  Clearly, we don’t know enough yet to answer that question, so the market is filled with uncertainty this morning.  I suspect with will only add to the volatility of the pending beg tech reports bringing a new level of scrutiny to tech stock valuations.  Try not to panic, watch for big point whipsaws that could be bullish or bearish as the market searches for clarity in the days ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stock futures remained relatively unchanged early Thursday, with Wall Street approaching new record highs. This stability in futures followed a Wednesday session where the S&P 500 reached an intraday record high. The stock market’s positive momentum is being driven by optimism surrounding potential tax cuts and deregulation under President Donald Trump, along with indications of robust economic growth. Investors are also anticipating updated economic data, with initial jobless claims set to be released before the market opens, followed by Kansas City Fed manufacturing data later in the day.

European stocks opened with mixed results on Thursday, following a week of positive momentum. Sportswear brand Puma experienced a significant drop, with shares falling by 19% in early trading after missing full-year 2024 profit expectations and announcing cost-cutting measures. This contrasted sharply with competitor Adidas, which reported 19% growth in fourth-quarter top-line figures earlier in the week.

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined by 0.65%, while China’s CSI 300 saw a gain of 1.01%. To support the struggling stock market, Chinese financial regulators urged large state-owned mutual funds and insurers to increase their share purchases. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.61%, whereas South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq fell by 1.24% and 1.13%, respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices both experienced gains, with the Nikkei 225 up by 0.79% and the Topix by 0.53%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting, where Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated a potential rate hike.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include ALK, AAL, AUB, BANC, ELV, FBP, FSV, FCX, CATX, GE, MCK, NTRS, PPBI, RCI, TECK, TCBI, UNP, VLY, & WNS. After the bell reports include ASB, COLB, CSX, CUBI, EWBC, FFBC, GBCI, ISRG, SLM, SSB, & TXN.

News & Technicals’

Warner Bros. Discovery’s CNN is set to lay off hundreds of employees on Thursday as it shifts its focus towards a global digital audience. This move comes as CNN restructures its linear TV lineup and expands its digital subscription offerings. The layoffs aim to reduce production costs and streamline teams, according to sources who requested anonymity. Similarly, NBC News is also planning job cuts later this week, although the exact number remains unclear. Both organizations delayed these decisions until after the U.S. presidential inauguration. The media landscape is evolving, with fewer viewers tuning into linear TV and more people consuming news via streaming services and social media.

Microsoft’s head of business development, Chris Young, is resigning after approximately four years in the role, as disclosed in a regulatory filing on Wednesday. Young played a key role in orchestrating Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard and was a member of the senior leadership team, reporting directly to CEO Satya Nadella. Despite no successor being named yet, Young’s departure marks a significant change in the company’s leadership. In the 2024 fiscal year, he was one of Microsoft’s highest-paid employees, earning total compensation of $12 million.

In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of active credit card holders making only minimum payments reached a record high of 10.75%, the highest since data collection began in 2012. Additionally, the share of cardholders more than 30 days past due increased to 3.52%, up from 3.21%, marking a rise of over 10%. Despite this uptick in delinquency rates, the current level remains significantly lower than the 6.8% peak observed during the 2008-09 financial crisis, suggesting that the situation has not yet reached critical levels.

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has announced dual investigations into Apple and Google to determine if they possess “strategic market status” within their mobile ecosystems. These ecosystems encompass the operating systems, app stores, and smartphone-based browsers that form the foundation of the two tech giants’ software. The probes are being conducted under the new Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act (DMCC), a U.K. law aimed at curbing anti-competitive practices in digital markets.

Though we are approaching new record highs and market enthusiasm is raging, keep in mind the extension that very high valuations in stock prices. If selling were to begin, we could easily see some quick piling on as traders rush to the door to protect profits.  That said, with record highs so close I would not rule out a strong push to get the new high for the record book before a pull back begins.  Plan your trading risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug