On Thursday, markets gapped slightly higher at the open (up 0.29% in the SPY, up 0.34% in the DIA, and up 0.20% in the QQQ).  However, the bears immediately faded that gap and took us to the low of the day by 10 am.  From that point, the bulls stepped in and we got a slow, wavy, modest bullish trend that reached the highs of the day at 2 pm.  From there, we saw a selloff that lasted until the last 10 minutes of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive, Spinning Top types of candles in all three major indices.  The SPY is fighting to cross above its 200sma, QQQ crossed above its 50sma, and DIA is fighting to cross above a resistance level at day end.  This marks the first time since early December that all three major indices are above their 50sma.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green again as Energy (+2.13%) led the way higher and Consumer Defensive (-0.39%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 0.38%, the DIA was up 0.66%, and QQQ was up 0.54%.  At the same time, the VXX was down almost 5% to 12.33 and T2122 has stayed deep in the overbought territory at 96.88.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.444% and Oil (WTI) has risen 1.20% at $78.34 per barrel.  So, overall, it has been an average-volume, bullish, and yet indecisive day as traders wait on Big Bank earnings on Friday morning.

In economic news, CPI came in just as expected at 6.5% annualized rate (compared to a 6.5% forecast and well below the 7.1% annualized November rate). This news shows that the Fed policy is working and inflation is beginning to come down.  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were a bit lower than expected, coming in at 205k (versus a forecast of 215k and last week’s 206k).  This news may have offset the good trend in the CPI as premarkets immediately sold off, but quickly recovered to flat on the release of these two pieces of data.  Later in the day, the December Federal Budget Balance came in worse than expected at -$85 billion (compared to a forecast of -$70 billion but still far better than the November value of -$249 billion).

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In stock news, LCID won a dismissal of the lawsuit brought against it by investors who claimed management had overstated its production outlook before a SPAC took it public.  Elsewhere, DIS management and board are preparing for a fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz, who formally launched a bid for a board seat on Thursday.  The move by Peltz would seriously threaten new (and former) CEO Bob Iger as Peltz has called for the sale of business units.  In the afternoon, CTSH announced a new CEO effective immediately (former President of INFY).  ERIC reported in Sweden Thursday and its smaller-than-expected provision hinted at a smaller US fine from the US DOJ and SEC.  (ERIC had previously lost a third of its value since the announcement of action by the US government.)  Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that WBD is considering the sale of its $1+ billion music library.  In other news, TSM has cut 2023 CAPEX by 5%, even after a record Q4 as weak demand for chips has the Taiwanese company worried.  The reduction should not impact the TSM Fabs (Chip production plant) under construction in Arizona.  However, it may preclude or push off plans to build a Fab in Europe or a second Fab in Japan.  Finally, AAPL CEO Tim Cook asked for (and got) a 40% reduction in pay for 2023.  (Don’t worry about Tim, he’ll still make $49 million this year.)

In energy news, the US Energy Information Admin. (EIA) reported a rare build in US natural gas inventories.  The report cited an 11 billion cubic feet increase (compared to a consensus forecast of a 13 billion cubic feet drawdown).  Despite this news, the Feb. natty held up, closing a penny higher than it had on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Oil (WTI and Brent) were up on Thursday.  The logic behind this might inform why natural gas also held up.  The basic idea is that the December CPI showed that inflation is falling.  If inflation falls, the market guesses that the Fed will ease off on rate increases. In turn, slower interest rate hikes would lead to a dollar that is less strong and potentially more business spending at lower rates.  It is those last two factors that could be read as oil and natural gas will be more valuable in the future and therefore should be bought today.  So, if you followed all of that, a viola, oil prices rose and natural gas prices at least held up after a bearish slide all month.

So far this morning, UNH, JPM, BAC, WFC, DAL, BLK, and FRC all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  However, of these numbers, WFC and FRC earnings as well as both lines for BLK showed negative growth (lowered targets).  WIT reported a miss on revenue while reporting in line on earnings.  It is also worth noting that DAL raised its forward guidance.  (C reports at 8:00 am.)  So, the big banks are kicking off earnings season with strong Q4 numbers so far.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Japan (-1.25%) and Thailand (-0.34%) were the only red seen.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.19%), Hong Kong (+1.04%), and Shanghai (+1.01%) led the region higher on mostly solid moves.  In Europe, bourses are mixed at midday but lean to the upside.  The FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.21%), and CAC (+0.31%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.28% open, the SPY is implying a -0.37% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.53% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 3.465% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $78.91/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to December Import / Export Prices (8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Harker at 7:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Friday are limited to BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, FRC, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT all before the opening bell.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

Do not forget that Monday is a market holiday in the US.  However, Canadian markets (TSX) are open Monday.

With that background, it looks like the three major indices are headed back down toward their T-line (8ema) which should provide some relief to the T2122 indicator over-extension. This opening does take the DIA back below a resistance level and takes the SPY back below its 200sma…at least at this point. With a 3-day weekend ahead, that may be a good reason for us to see light volumes today. However, with CPI direction behind us and now the Big Banks giving us a hint that reports might not be so bad this time around, I would not be surprised to see decent trading volumes at least early today. Either way, be cautious and prepare yourself for the long weekend. Take profits, hedge, and limit your risk exposure because, unlike the big funds, you’re not risking other people’s money, you’re risking your own.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, after Fed Chair Powell’s morning speech, markets opened up just on the down side of flat.  At that point, all three major indices chopped sideways until noon. Then a slow, steady bullish trend started that lasted into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied, Bullish Engulfing signals in the SPY and QQQ.  Meanwhile, the DIA bounced up off its 50sma on the day.  All of this, once again, took place on lower-than-average volume.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green as Consumer Defensive (+0.09%) lagged behind and Consumer Cyclical (+1.46%) lead the other sectors higher.  Meanwhile, the SPY was up 0.70%, the DIA was up 0.58%, and QQQ was up 0.85%.  At the same time, the VXX was down 4.16% to 12.91 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 89.57.  10-year bond yields spiked to 3.606% and Oil (WTI) was up 0.31% at $74.86 per barrel.  So, overall, it has been a bullish day that negated the potential bearish signal from Monday.

In economic news, as mentioned above, Fed Chair Powell spoke to Sweden’s central bank Tuesday.  He made no reference to interest rate decisions other than to say that more increases are likely on the way this year.  His remarks emphasized that fighting inflation requires measures that are politically unpopular and that the Fed must be independent of political control in order to take the hard actions that will bring inflation down.  He also went on to address GOP criticisms by saying that “the Fed should stick to its knitting” (and not stray into using regulatory power to address climate change or social issues).  He emphatically said, “We (the Fed) are not, and will not be a climate policymaker.”  However, he also said asking big banks to examine their readiness for major climate-related events and other risks was fair game but that is as far as it should go.  If the premarket is a judge, traders liked what they heard from Powell. Much later, after the close, the API delivered its Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report with a massive unexpected build in inventories.  The data showed inventory up by 14.865 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.375 million barrels).

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In stock news, Airbus maintained its position as the world’s largest plane manufacturer when it reported that deliveries rose 8% in 2022.  Airbus delivered 663 jets, compared to just 480 delivered by BA during the year.  Elsewhere, GM, F, GOOGL, SPWR, and RUN announced they will work together to create standards and protocols that will allow for Virtual Power Plants to be used to ease loads on electricity grids.  (The VPP idea is that thousands of decentralized energy sources like electric vehicles and batteries can be pooled together to create a source of power for an electric grid during high-demand periods.)  Meanwhile, CNBC reported that the money AAPL app store developers have received this year suggests that AAPL app store growth has slowed and is likely in line with the 2021 revenue from that unit.  At the same time, FDX said it was trimming Sunday deliveries starting in March, reducing the percentage of the US that is eligible for Sunday delivery down to 50% (from 80%).  In other news, the Wall Street Journal reported that FRG is considering going private through a management buyout.  Finally, WFC (long the leader in home lending) is scaling back its mortgage business and will now only offer home loans to existing banking customers.

In energy news, in addition to the crude oil stocks above, the Weekly API report also showed a 1.8-million-barrel increase in gasoline inventories and a 1.1-million-barrel build of distillate stocks (diesel fuel and heating oil).  Compare these to a forecast of a 1.186-million-barrel build in gasoline inventory and an expected drawdown of 0.472-million-barrels of distillate.  In other news, the US EIA released a forecast on Tuesday afternoon saying that global oil consumption will reach a new record of 102.2 million barrels per day in 2024.  Finally, February Natural Gas futures fell another 7% on Tuesday (following Monday’s 5% rally), bringing the total drop to 52% over the last three weeks.

Early this morning, the FAA suffered a system outage that normally alerts pilots of in-air hazards and airport facility status changes (like closed airports and runways). That system has stopped processing new or updated information. This outage caused the FAA to order the delay or cancellation of all flights in US airspace (inbound or outbound) until the system is restored.  As of 6:30 am, almost 800 flights had been delayed, canceled, or rerouted away from US airspace.  Obviously, this will have a very minor, but real, impact on US businesses, especially airlines. (For reference, the storm just before Christmas caused the cancellation of many thousand flights each day for more than a week.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but lean to the upside on modest moves with Japan (+1.03%) and Australia (+0.90%) leading the gainers while Shenzhen (-0.58%) and Taiwan (-0.35%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the exchanges are heavily weighted to the green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.64%), DAX (+1.05%), and CAC (+0.98%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade with only Norway (-0.63%) and two other very minor spots of red on the board.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.10% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down to 3.578% and Oil (WTI) is up fractionally to $75.38%/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday are limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell.  However, after the close, KBH reports.

In economic news later in the week, on Thursday, December CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Ag Report, and the December Federal Budget Balance are reported. Finally, on Friday, we get December Import/Export Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and hear from Fed member Harker.

In terms of earnings, on Thursday, INFY and TSM report.  However, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, FRC, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT report.

In mortgage news, after rising at the end of the year, interest rates dropped sharply last week from 6.58% to 6.42% for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan.  That drop led to a 5% increase in refinance applications and an overall mortgage volume increase of 1.2% compared to the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  The mortgage volume was still 86% lower than the same week in 2022. 

With that background, it looks like the large-cap indices are sitting just on top of their 50sma (also a resistance level for the SPY) after a very small bullish premarket move. Meanwhile, the QQQ is also positive in premarket, but has not yet reached its 50sma above. This is looking like a modest additional follow-through to Tuesday’s move. However, it is far from a definitive direction move in the bullish direction. Nonetheless, the premarket bias is bullish. Do not be surprised if price just drifts and chops around today as the market waits on that CPI report Thursday (not for its own sake, but as a read-through to what the Fed may do at month end). So, don’t count on average volumes, and be very careful trading thin tickers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BWA, DIS, CAT, PYPL, SBUX, ALLY, GILD, LUMN, and META. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher at the open (by a half of a percent in the large-cap indices and by three-quarters of a percent in the QQQ), following the rest of the world higher.  Then the bulls gave us a follow-through that lasted until we reached the highs of the day at about 11:30 am.  At that point, the bears stepped in to lead an afternoon selloff that took us lower, all the way into the close.  The large caps completely faded the gap, getting into negative territory by day end.  However, while the QQQ sold off, it held up better than the large caps.  This action saw the SPY retest and fail its 50sma and the coinciding resistance level.  It has also brought the QQQ up near a retest of its own 50sma above before pulling back.  We should also note that all three major indices printed Shooting Star-type candles.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors are in the green as Technology (+1.52%) led the way higher and Healthcare (-1.17%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.06%, the DIA was down 0.29%, and QQQ was up 0.65%.  Volume was back below average again in all 3 indices.  Meanwhile, the VXX was up 0.52% to 13.47, and T2122 fell but remains in the overbought territory at 85.33.  10-year bond yields plunged down to 3.53% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.53% at $74.90 per barrel.  So, overall, it was a gap-up, Shooting Star type of day with the bulls happy early and the bears completely in control during the afternoon

In economic news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke to an Atlanta business group, basically reiterating the recent comments made by Fed Chair Powell.  Bostic said they (Fed) are prepared to take rates higher and stay higher for longer to tame inflation.  (And, yes, even at the risk of tipping the economy into recession.)  Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Daly told the Wall Street Journal that she expects rates to go “somewhere above 5%” and that “doing so in more gradual steps does give you the ability to respond to incoming information.”  However, it did seem that both speakers were talking about whether the Fed will raise 0.25% or 0.50% on February 1. It is also worth noting that neither of these Fed Presidents have a vote in 2023 (both were voters in 2022).

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In stock news, LMT announced a $14.2 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Canada (to be delivered in 2026).  Elsewhere, two retailers increased their holiday sales forecasts as AEO and ANF both said Monday that consumers had been snapping up their winter gear during the holidays.  However, on the other side, LULU lowered its Q4 guidance.  In the healthcare space, MRNA is reportedly evaluating a $110-$130 price range for its Covid-19 vaccine once it moves from government contracts to commercial sales.  This is a similar range to the one PFE revealed it is considering.  (The original price for both was $15-$16 per dose and then rose to $26/dose in the July 2022 government contract.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is preparing to stop using chips from AVGO and QCOM in its devices by the end of 2024 (replacing those chips with Wi-Fi chips built to internal designs).  Finally, Bloomberg reported that MSFT is in discussions with OpenAI bout investing as much as $10 billion into the creator of the artificial intelligence chatbot named ChatGPT.

In energy news, the US Federal government has rejected the initial batch of bids to resupply 3 million barrels of crude into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  No details on the bid prices were given, but the Dept. of Energy had previously said it is looking to refill the 180 million barrels recently released at a price of $70/barrel.  Meanwhile, the price of the largest exported grade of Russian oil (Urals grade) was selling at well less than half of the international price.  Urals was selling for $37.80/barrel (compared to $79.80/barrel for Brent) at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk. This is far less than even the G-7 imposed price cap.  All of which is proving that sanctions on Russia are having a serious economic impact. Finally, the German energy regulator said that a natural gas shortage is increasingly unlikely due to conservation efforts and a mild winter.  The Federal Network Agency said Germany’s gas storage facilities are currently still 91% full.

After the close, JEF beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, both lines also showed negative growth (lowered targets) with earnings less than half of the same quarter in 2021.  The company blamed a persistent slump in the number of M&A deals as the cause.  So far this morning, BBBY reported misses on both lines (expected after very recent warnings that the company may file for bankruptcy). ACI and SNX report later in the premarket period.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the downside.  Singapore (-1.29%), India (-1.03%), and Malaysia (-0.56%) led the region lower while Japan (+0.78%), Shenzhen (+0.50%), and Taiwan (+0.34%) paced the gains.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Portugal (+0.16%), we see red across the board at midday.  The FTSE (-0.19%), DAX (-0.45%), and CAC (-0.73%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 3.563% and Oil (WTI) is up a half of a percent to $75.04/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday are limited to Fed Chair Powell speaking (9 am) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to ACI, BBBY, and SNX before the opening bell.  Then after the close, NOTV reports.

In economic news later in the week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, December CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Ag Report, and the December Federal Budget Balance are reported. Finally, on Friday, we get December Import/Export Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and hear from Fed member Harker.

In terms of earnings, on Wednesday, we hear from KBH.  On Thursday, INFY and TSM report.  However, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, FRC, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In late-breaking news, COIN announced that it is cutting 20% of its workforce after having cut 18% back in June 2022. The cuts last June were attributed to “growing too fast” while the current cuts are blamed on “market conditions created by bad actors” (referring to FTX). Finally, the Dollar is trading up against the Yen and Pound while it is flat against the Euro this morning. The overall Dollar index is up 0.32% today, which will provide a headwind to commodity prices.

With that background, it looks like all three major indices look like they are headed for a retest of their T-line (8ema) in premarket action. This looks like at least an initial follow-through to Monday’s Shooting Star signal. However, this is far from a definitive direction change and none of the three major indices has even re-entered the three-week consolidation zone again. So, for the moment, this looks like volatility (chop) as markets wait on Fed speakers and CPI later in the week. Fed Chair Powell, may have an outsized impact this morning with no other economic data or major earnings news to offset his tone. So, be cautious in chasing the premarket move unless you are very nimble.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher at the open (up 0.83% in the SPY, up 0.88% in the DIA, and up 0.66% in the QQQ).  However, price then immediately reversed and faded the gap to trade back below Thursday’s close before reversing again.  At about 9:50 am, a steady rally began that lasted all the way into 3:15 pm when a small pullback took us into the close.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles, with larger lower wicks and smaller upper wicks, that caused all three major indices to cross above their T-lines (8ema) and pop up out of the 3-week long consolidation range.  DIA has also crossed back above its 50sma and SPY is about to retest its own 50sma from below.

On the day, all 10 sectors are in the green with the Basic Materials (+3.29%) leading the way higher as Healthcare (+0.99%) lagged way behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 2.24%, the DIA was up 2.14%, and the QQQ up 2.76%.  Volume was slightly above average (for the first time in a long time).  Meanwhile, the VXX was down 2.33% to 13.40 and T2122 spiked back up into the overbought territory at 92.18.  10-year bond yields plunged down to 3.565% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $73.76 per barrel.  So, overall, it was a bullish day that finally broke out of the long consolidation, oddly on economic data that may cause the Fed to stay Hawkish.

In economic news, December Nonfarms Payrolls came in above expectations at +223k (compared to +200k forecasted but less than November’s +256k number).  This took the December Unemployment Rate down to 3.5% (versus the forecast of 3.7% and the November rate of 3.6%).  The December Participation Rate also increased slightly to 62.3% (from the November value of 62.2%).  However, the December Average Hourly Earnings came in lower than expected at +4.6% year-on-year (versus the forecast of +5.0% and less than the November reading of +4.8%).  This might indicate lower inflationary pressure on wages.  Later in the day, November Factory Orders showed a larger drop than forecast at -1.8% (compared to an expectation of -0.8% and an Oct. value of +0.4%).  Then, finally, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in significantly lower than expected at 49.6 (versus a forecast of 55.0 and a November value of 56.5).  So, most of this showed a stronger economy than was projected with less inflationary pressure than anticipated, but also a slightly contracting forward outlook in the Services sector. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, on Friday, TLSA announced it will cut prices on various Model 3 and Model Y cars.  Elsewhere, LUV said that it expects to post a loss for Q4 after canceling 17,000 flights in December.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that China is in talks with PFE to secure licenses to allow its domestic drugmakers to produce a generic version of the antiviral drug Paxlovid.  At the same time, the FDA approved a new Alzheimer’s drug that was co-developed by BIIB.  In other FDA news, the agency announced that the AZN antibody cocktail Evusheld likely does not provide protection to the latest and most prevalent variant of covid.  Later in the afternoon, Reuters reported that MCD is planning corporate layoffs and a shift in emphasis toward building more restaurants according to leaked internal memos. 

In miscellaneous news, Congress finally elected Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House.  It took 15 rounds of voting over 4 days (the longest Speaker election in 164 years) and nearly came to blows between Republicans after the 14^th round as a single extremist held the rest of the GOP (and Congress) hostage.  All the while, not a single Democrat crossed the aisle to resolve the matter.  However, in the end, the holdouts were persuaded by major concessions which allow more debate, allow easier amendments, divide the government funding into 12 different bills, give the House ability to defund the salary of any/all government officials, prohibit voting on increasing the debt ceiling without also cutting domestic spending, and finally allow any member of the House to individually call a vote to remove the Speaker at any time. This sets the stage for what will almost certainly be a more contentious, obstructive, and drama-filled two years than has been the case in a long time.  (And that’s saying something.)  Elsewhere, (and in better news) Natural Gas fell 17.1% last week (February contract), making it the third weekly decline in a row.  Meanwhile, Oil closed Friday flat, ending the week lower despite a healthy drop in the Dollar (which raises commodity prices).  Across the pond, Euro-area inflation fell back to single digits in December for the first time since August.

Over the weekend, Bazil suffered an even worse attack than the US suffered on January 6, 2021, putting the current US political problems into perspective. Thousands of supporters of the Trump-esque defeated ex-President Bolsanaro attacked, ceased, and briefly occupied the Brazilian Congress, Presidential Palace, and Supreme Court. Interestingly, in Brazil, it did not take a lying leader with the megaphone of major mass-media organizations behind him to whip the ignorant masses into rioting. There, it was accomplished in a much lower-tech manner. At any rate, the Brazilian military eventually drove the mobs away, but the damage was done. Xenophoia, tribalism, and “kicking down” politics had assaulted democracy. Perhaps more importantly to us, Brazilian business, and grain exports were temporarily halted by the national turmoil.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Taiwan (+2.64%), South Korea (+2.63%), and Hong Kong (+1.89%) led the region higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see nearly the same picture at midday.  Only the FTSE (-0.10%) is in the red, while the DAX (+0.50%), and CAC (+0.23%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, the SPY is implying a +0.40% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 3.593% and Oil (WTI) has spiked 3.35% to $76.24/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to AYI and CMC before the opening bell.  Then after the close, JEF reports.

In economic news later in the week, on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell speaks and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  Then Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, December CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the WASDE Ag Report, and the December Federal Budget Balance are reported. Finally, on Friday, we get December Import/Export Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and hear from Fed member Harker.

In terms of earnings, on Tuesday, ACI and SNX report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from BSX and KBH.  On Thursday, there are no major earnings reports.  However, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again as we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, FRC, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT report.

Finally, GS announced early this morning that it will be cutting 3,200 jobs later this week after completing an internal cost-cutting review. Bloomberg reports that when GS reports Friday it will unveil a new unit (which will house all of the GS credit card and installment-lending business) and that new unit will show a $2 billion pretax loss. Elsewhere, the Dollar is trading near a seven-month low today. This gives a boost to all commodities in early trading.

With that background, it looks like all three major indices are looking to follow Asia and Europe higher (at least as of premarket). The follow-through on Friday’s strong candle has the SPY retesting its 50sma and resistance from previous price action. All three of the major indices are above their T-line (8ema), but over-extension is not yet a problem in any of them. With CPI and Fed speakers ahead later in the week, do not be surprised to see a move but hen a rest as the market then hopes for a clue as to how the Fed will act at the end of the month.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, META. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

For the first time in the new year, markets gapped down at the open Thursday (0.50% in the SPY, 0.50% in the DIA, and 0.68% in the QQQ).  All three major indices then spend the rest of the day wobbling sideways in a three-quarters of a percent range below the open. This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles on the day.  All three of the indices are now back just below their T-line (8ema) and remain in the recent consolidation.  The DIA is also back below its 50sma with the QQQ looking like a “Dreaded-h pattern” setup.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with the Technology (-2.06%) and Utilities sector (-1.82%) leading the way lower as the Energy sector (+1.24%) held up best.  Meanwhile, the SPY was down 1.14%, the DIA was down 1.00%, and the QQQ was down 1.57%.  Yet again, this took place on lower-than-average volume.  At the same time, the VXX was up 0.81% to 13.72 and T2122 dropped back down into the mid-range at 39.37.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 3.72% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.37% to $73.84 per barrel.  So, overall, it was a bearish day that remains in the choppy consolidation of the last 2+ weeks.

In economic news, December ADP Nonfarm Employment was up more than expected, adding 235k jobs (compared to a forecast of +150k and the Nov. reading of +182k).  At the same time, both Imports and Exports were down in November, resulting in a Nov. Trade Balance that was better than expected at -$61.50 billion (versus a forecast of -$73.00 billion and the October value of -$77.80 billion).  Later the Dec. S&P Global Composite PMI came in better than expected at 45.0 (compared to the forecast of 44.6 but still worse than the November reading of 46.4).  Then the US December Services PMI came in at 44.7, which was better than expected (versus the forecast of 44.4 but again still worse than the Nov. reading of 46.2).  Finally, EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in higher than expected at 1.694 million barrels (compared to a forecast of 1.154 million barrels and stronger than the prior week’s 0.718 million barrels). 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, SFIX announced Thursday that its CEO will be stepping down effective immediately and also said it would be cutting about 20% of its workforce.  Elsewhere, CAG raised its full-year sales forecast for 2023 by 7%-8% mostly on the impact of price hikes, and also increased its earnings forecast for the year.  At nearly the same time, LW also raised its own 2023 revenue forecast to $4.8-$4.9 billion and significantly raised EPS guidance from $2.45-$2.85 all the way to $3.75-$4.00/share.  Then BBBY announced that it was exploring options including bankruptcy to address its declining situation.  Overseas, AAPL’s primary phone maker Foxconn said that production at its main plant in China had “basically returned to normal” after a 12% decrease in December.  Meanwhile, LAZR announced that its Q4 production deals (orders) had exceeded the target for 60% year-on-year growth in its order book.  Majority owner of WWE (former CEO) Vince McMahon elected himself and two allies to the board of directors (removing three others) with an eye on returning to a leading role one year after leaving over a sexual harassment scandal.

In government action news, a NY Judge has ordered that JPM does have to face a lawsuit from sunglasses maker Ray-Ban over a $272 million cyber theft from the French company’s New York bank account.  Elsewhere, a US Bankruptcy judge has ruled that Celsius Networks actually owns most of its customers $4.2 billion crypto deposits. This means the customers will be last in line for payout from the lender’s bankruptcy case.  Later in the day, PTON agreed to pay a $19 million fine for failing to promptly report a defect in their treadmills that could cause serious injury.  Meanwhile, the FTC has proposed a rule that would forbid any company from requiring employees to sign non-compete or “training repayment” agreements.  The rules are months from final passage, but if put into effect the FTC says it expects this would raise the wages of 30 million Americans by a total of $300 billion per year.

In miscellaneous news, for the second time in a week, natural gas futures (natty) plunged 11% in a day after Wednesday’s 5% increase.  The very warm start to winter in the Northern Hemisphere (especially Europe) had hurt gas prices and put a large crimp in Russia’s efforts to squeeze Europe over its support of Ukraine.  Elsewhere, Fed ultra-hawk Bullard said Thursday that he is optimistic the new year will bring relief from inflation.  He also said “the probability of a soft landing has increased compared to where it was in the fall” adding that this is a great time to fight inflation because of the strong job market.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  South Korea (+1.12%) was an outlier to the upside with Australia (+0.65%), Thailand (+0.60%), and Japan (+0.59%) leading the region higher.  Meanwhile, India (-0.74%), Singapore (-0.48%), and Hong Kong (-0.29%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.27%) and CAC (+0.30%) lead the region higher while the DAX (-0.04%) is one of only two exchanges in the red in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed and flat start to the day (ahead of December Payrolls data).  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a -0.02% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are just slightly higher at 3.729% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $73.38/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, and Dec. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Nov. Factory Orders and Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to GBX before the opening bell.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning, GBX has reported a beat on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know the other news of the day which is that the US House has yet to elect a Speaker as the GOP flounders to get its act together. The House adjourned again last night after an 11th attempt failed to reach the 218-vote majority required to elect a Speaker. The GOP is split with 6 “Never McCarthy” votes, 14 “Guarantee me more power” votes, and 202 “McCarthy” votes (of those 60 or so are said to be “McCarthy only” votes). The House will resume speech-making (nominations) and voting again at noon today as the fourth day of the Republican majority gets back underway. Again, if there is any good news, it is that without any real “GOP Platform Agenda” there is no real work that is being missed yet. The first real “must pass” legislation will be the US Debt Ceiling increase and that will not come for a few weeks. So far, markets do not seem to care and are just enjoying the distraction.

With that background, it looks like all three major indices are waiting to see what the December Payrolls data looks like before deciding what to do. Still, at this point in the premarket, all three major indices are close below their T-line (8ema) with the SPY retesting a support level and the QQQ seeming to work on a bearish Dreaded-h pattern. The consolidation range of the last 3 weeks continues to have a grip on the market. Regardless of the Payrolls data (where again, good news will likely be bad news for the market and visa-versa), be careful about chasing either direction on a Friday. No matter what it does today, this market can still break in either direction after reconsideration… especially a two-day reconsideration. If you do trade the post-announcement move, be very nimble or be prepared to wait out any reversal pressure your position might face. Volumes continue to be light as the big money has not decided on a direction yet.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service