Markets traded sideways again Tuesday for the most part.  SPY opened 0.12% higher, DIA opened down 0.12%, and QQQ gapped up 0.22%. From there, SPY and QQQ just meandered back and forth across their opening gaps until about 12:40 p.m. when they began a very modest, but steady, selloff that lasted all the way into the close.  DIA was a bit of a maverick on Tuesday, selling while the other two rallied and rallying while they sold.  However, it too began selling and continued to selloff the last hour of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  Spy crossed back below its T-line (8ema) on a black candle with very small wicks.  QQQ was more of a fat-bodied, black Spinning Top that retested its T-line from above and passed that test.  Finally, DIA was the most undecided, printing a black Spinning Top with larger wicks.  This happened on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again as Technology (-0.90%) and Basic Materials (-084%) led the majority lower.  On the other side, Communication Services (+0.50%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.30%, DIA lost 0.33%, and QQQ lost 0.35%. VXX fell one percent to close at 42.46 and T2122 fell into the very top of the oversold territory to close at 19.43.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed to 4.23 while Oil (WTI) was flat, closing at $68.40 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a sideways grind followed by a modest, but steady afternoon selloff.  This may have been traders being nervous ahead of CPI data (which itself is just a precursor to next Week’s Fed rate decision).  Interestingly, 86% of traders (according to Fed Fund Futures) expect a quarter-point rate cute next week and the talking heads have been “sure” that was going to be the case for weeks.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, which fell as expected to 2.2% (compared to a 2.2% forecast but well down from Q2’s 2.5% reading).  Surprisingly, Q3 Unit Labor Costs came in much better than expected at +0.8% (versus the +1.9% forecast but still well above Q2’s unexpectedly low +0.4% value).  At noon, the WASDE Ag report indicate tightening global supplies of corn and soybeans in December.  The USDA decreased estimated year-end stock level of corn significantly.  This may be an indicator of future food inflation.  Later, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a modest unexpected inventory build of 0.499 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 1.300-million-barrel drawdown but less than the prior week’s 1.232-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed news, we have started the Fed quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting. 

After the close, GME missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were split down the middle with six exchanges in the green and the other six red.  South Korea (+1.02%) paced the gained while Taiwan (-0.96%) had the biggest loss.  In Europe, the picture is greener with 10 of the 14 bourses in positive territory at midday.  The CAC (+0.19%), DAX (even), and FTSE (+0.19%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but modestly bullish start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.244% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.39% to $69.54 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include Nov. Core CPI and Nov. CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and the Nov. Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to M and REVG.  Then, after the close, ADBE, and NDSN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Nove. Core PPI, Nov. PPI, and the Fed Budget Balance.  Finally, on Friday, Nov. Export Price Index and Nov. Import Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from, CIEN, AVGO, COST, and RH.  There are no reports scheduled for Friday.

So far this morning, REVG reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, M beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, it seems stocks are undecided ahead of CPI data.  All three major index ETFs have printed tiny-body candles so far in the premarket.  The SPY is retesting its T-line from below and DIA is testing the support level that held it up Tuesday.  It bears repeating that SPY, DIA, and QQQ all still sit very near their all-time highs.  However, with two of the three sitting modestly below their T-line (8ema) the short-term trend has to be seen as bearish now.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched from their   T-lines.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back at the top of its oversold range.  So, while both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum, the Bulls have more slack to play with.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning.  TSLA (+1.48%) is out front again leading the gainers while AAPL (-0.10%) is a modest laggard.  TSLA is also the leader in dollar-volume traded (albeit on a very light trading morning) sitting at a about 2 times as much traded than NVDA (+0.89%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, the market started the day mostly flat. SPY opened 0.02% lower, opened 0.11% higher, and QQQ gapped down 0.19%.  From there, all three major index ETFs traded sideways for about 20 minutes before selling off until 11 a.m.  At that point, SPY and QQQ traded sideways until about 1:50 p.m. when they sold off into the close.  DIA only differed in that it rallied from 11 a.m. to noon and then sold off the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles.  SPY retested and closed just above its T-line (8ema).  DIA retested and failed its T-line on a third down day. However, QQQ remains well above its T-line on a large, black-bodied candle with small wicks on both ends.  This happened on well below-average volume in the major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again as Communications Services (-3.21%) plummeted and led the rest of the market (by 2%) lower. Meanwhile, Basic Materials (+0.79%) held up a half percent better than any other sector.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.53%, DIA lost 0.48%, and QQQ lost 0.78%. VXX gained 2.27% to close at 42.71 and T2122 climbed up to the center of its mid-range to close at 47.27.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed to 4.197 while Oil (WTI) gained 1.38% to close at $68.13 per barrel.  So, Monday gave us a mostly a nothing day where we saw a modest pullback.  However, all three remain within one percent of their all-time high closes.  Thus, it felt much more like a rest or pause day than the end of a Bull run.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the New York Fed 1-Yr. Consumer Inflation Expectations survey, which came in up a tick at 3.0% (compared to an October reading of 2.9%). 

In Fed news, we have started the Fed quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting.  Still, it is worth noting this comment on the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey.  The report noted, “the overall increase in one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations masks a decline among those without a college degree and an increase among those with a college degree.” So, the less educated seem to believe the new administration policies will be less inflationary than those with more education.

After the close, MDB and TOL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CASY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ORCL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again with six exchanges in green and six in the red. South Korea (+2.43%) rebounded from their post-martial law slump to lead gainers by almost 2% while Taiwan (-0.64%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is redder in color with 10 of the 14 bourses below water at midday.  The CAC (-0.55%), DAX (+0.06%), and FTSE (-0.51%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.14% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have popped back up to 4.232% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.37% to $68.12 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday include Q3 Nonfarm Productivity and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (both at 8:30 a.m.), WASDE Ag Report (noon), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ASO, AZO, DBI, FERG, GIII, HEPS, OLLI, and UNFI.  Then, after the close, GME reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Nov. Core CPI, Nov. CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and the Nov. Federal Budget Balance are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Nove. Core PPI, Nov. PPI, and the Fed Budget Balance.  Finally, on Friday, Nov. Export Price Index and Nov. Import Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, M, REVG, ADBE, and NDSN report.  On Thursday, we hear from, CIEN, AVGO, COST, and RH.  There are no reports scheduled for Friday.

So far this morning, UNFI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, GIII missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, AZO, DBI, and FERG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, stocks remain undecided in the premarket.  SPY and DIA both opened the early session flat with little movement since then.  (What move there has been was positive as the bulls moved SPY from slightly negative to slightly positive.)  QQQ was the biggest mover, gapping down in the premarket but then immediately rallying back to just above flat.  Keep in mind that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all still sit very near all-time highs.  Two of the three are also still above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now slightly bullish.  (However, to the extent we can trust TC2000 DIA data, DIA is giving me some concern coming off three straight down days and showing slightly below break-even early.)  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched from their   T-lines.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range.  So, both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning.  GOOGL (+3.70%) is by far the leader in terms of price move. However, TSLA (+0.94%) is the leader in dollar-volume traded (albeit on a very light trading morning) sitting at a about 1.5 times as much traded than NVDA (-0.14%), which itself has traded almost twice as much as the next one of the big dogs.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged Friday after a modest start.  SPY opened 0.15% higher, DIA opened 0.16% higher, and QQQ opened up 0.13%.  However, at that point QQQ rallied sharply the first 50 minutes before trading sideways with just a slight bullish trend the rest of the day.  For its part, after its open, DIA immediately began a long slow 5-hour selloff before ending the day trading sideways in a very tight range along the lows. Meanwhile SPY was somewhere between the other two major index ETFs, grinding sideways all day after its open.  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top in the SPY, that delivered a new all-time high and new all-time high close.  At the same time, DIA printed a big-bodied, black candle that crossed back below its T-line (8ema).  Finally, QQQ printed a large, white-bodied candle that also delivered a new all-time high and new all-time high close. 

On the day, seven of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Energy (-1.99%) was far out front leading the pack lower.  On the other side, Consumer Cyclical (+1.21%) was by far the strongest sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.19%, DIA lost 0.34%, and QQQ gained 0.89%. VXX fell mor than 1.5% to close at 41.76 and T2122 dropped into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 33.33.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell again to 4.149 while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.65% to close at $67.17 per barrel. So, Friday saw some divergence in the market that is sitting at or near all-time highs.  Thursday was basically a day of consolidation.  That was the first such day in a while for SPY and QQQ, but a continuation of a consolidation process that has lasted 1.5 weeks in DIA.  This all happened on well below-average volume in the SPY, well-below-average volume in the DIA, and average volume in the QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Month-on-Month November Average Hourly Earnings, which was a tick stronger than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% but in-line with October’s +0.4% reading).  On an annualized basis, November Average Hourly Earnings were also a tick higher than expected at +4.0% (compared to a 3.9% forecast but in-line with the +4.0% October value).  At the same time, Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls were considerably stronger than predicted at +227k (versus a +202k forecast an +36k October reading).  On the private side, Nov. Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also significantly higher than anticipated at +194k (compared to a +160k forecast and far stronger than October’s -2k number).  The Nov. Participation Rate fell two ticks to 62.5% (versus a 62.7% forecast and even down from October’s 62.6% reading).  Altogether, this led to a Nov. Unemployment Rate that was 4.2% (compared to a 4.2% forecast but up a tick from October’s 4.1%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was up to 74.0 (versus a 73.1 forecast and November’s 71.8 reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in down quite a bit to 71.6 (compared to November’s 76.9).  Looking further out, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were up two ticks to 2.9% (versus a 2.7% forecast and much higher than November’s 2.6% survey result).  In the longer-term, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were 3.1% (compared to a 3.1% forecast and down a tick from the 3.2% November value). Later, October Consumer Credit was sharply higher at $19.24 billion (versus a $10.10 billion forecast and September’s $3.21 billion number).

In Fed news, on Friday, Fed Governor Bowman (the most hawkish voter) said she is worried about inflation.  Bowman said, “I continue to see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially when the labor market continues to be near full employment.”  She continued, “We’ve seen progress in lowering inflation but that progress seems to have stalled this year.” So, she concluded, “I would prefer that we proceed cautiously and gradually in lowering the policy rate, as inflation remains elevated.”  Later, new (as of August) Cleveland Fed President Hammack said, “I believe we are at or near the point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate reductions.” Hammack continued, “Moving slowly will allow us to calibrate policy to the appropriately restrictive level over time given the underlying strength in the economy.”  Meanwhile, the more dovish Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said “I’m hopeful that conditions continue to evolve such that we can get in close to the (neutral, neither restrictive or expansionary rate) range.”  (Goolsbee would not specifically answer on what he felt was a neutral rate, but he did say it was “around 3%” (which is 1.5%- 1.75% below the current Fed rate.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  South Korea (-2.78%) paced the losses (by 2%) after their President survived an impeachment after his failed martial law and arrests of opposition.  Hong Kong (+2.76%) led the gaining exchanges by 2.5%.  In Europe, the picture is much greener with 10 of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+0.61%), DAX (-0.04%), and FTSE (+0.50%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, Futures are pointing toward a mixed and slightly down start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields set at 4.18% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.34% to $68.10 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (9 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  Then, after the close, CASY, MDB, ORCL, and TOL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Q3 Unit Labor Costs, WASDE Ag Report, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Nov. Core CPI, Nov. CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and the Nov. Federal Budget Balance are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Nove. Core PPI, Nov. PPI, and the Fed Budget Balance.  Finally, on Friday, Nov. Export Price Index and Nov. Import Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ASO, AZO, DBI, FERG, GIII, HEPS, OLLI, UNFI, and GME.  Then Wednesday, M, REVG, ADBE, and NDSN report.  On Thursday, we hear from, CIEN, AVGO, COST, and RH.  There are no reports scheduled for Friday.

With that background, market is looking undecided in the premarket.  All three major index ETFs opened the early session slightly higher, but have printed small black-body candles with more with than body so far.  They all three remain close to flat.  Keep in mind that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all still sit very near all-time highs.  Two of the three are also still above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now slightly bullish.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, QQQ is again getting a bit stretched above its T-line, but the other two are close enough.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is in the bottom half of its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in red numbers at this point of the morning.  NVDA (-1.86%) and AMD (-1.67%) are 1.25% in front of other losers as China threatens an anti-monopoly investigation. At the same time, TSLA (+2.18%) is a full 2% ahead of the other two very modest gainers in early trading. TLSA is also leading in terms of dollar-volume traded, sitting at a about 1.5 times as much traded than NVDA, which itself has traded almost 6.5 times as much as the next one of the big dogs.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started off flat Thursday with DIA having the biggest move at the open.  SPY and QQQ both opened less than 0.01% lower while DIA “gapped” down 0.10%. From there, both SPY and QQQ meandered sideways, re-crossing their opening level several times.  Then about 1 p.m. both started a slide to the downside that lasted the rest of the day.  For its part, DIA rallied after the open, reaching the high if the say at 10 a.m., and then starting a long, slow selloff that lasted the entire day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with upper wicks in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ printed Bearish Harami candles, while DIA just gave us a big black candle.  All three remain above their T-line (and did not ever retest that average on the day).  This all happened on well below-average volume.

On the day, five of the 10 of the sectors were in the red and the other five in the green as Healthcare (-1.03%) was the biggest mover and led the way lower.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+0.56%) led a far more tightly-packed group of positive sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA lost 0.50%, and QQQ lost 0.28%. VXX rose just a tad to close at 42.42 and T2122 dropped back right into the center of its mid-range to close at 53.44.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell just slightly to 4.18% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat, closing at $68.52 per barrel. So, Thursday was basically a day of consolidation.  That was the first such day in a while for SPY and QQQ, but a continuation of a consolidation process that has lasted 1.5 weeks in DIA. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 224k (compared to a forecast and previous week’s value of 215k). In terms of ongoing claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were well down at 1,871k (versus a forecast of 1,910k and the prior week’s reading of 1,896k).  At the same time, Oct. Imports were down to $339.60 billion (compared to the September $352.30 billion number).  Meanwhile, Oct. Exports were only down a touch to $265.70 billion (versus September’s $267.90 billion).  Together, this gave us an Oct. Trade Balance that was down to $73.80 billion (compared to a forecasted $75.70 billion and September’s $83.80 billion reading).  Later, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $9 billion decrease for the week, falling from $6.905 trillion to $6.896 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, there were no Fed speakers of note. However, the New York Fed released a study that shows tariffs during Trump’s first term hurt stock values and reduced business sales, profits, and employment.  The report said, “most firms suffered large valuation losses on tariff-announcement days. We also document that these financial losses translated into future reductions in profits, employment, sales, and labor productivity.”  The report continued, “because global supply chains are complex and foreign countries retaliate … Our results show that firms experienced large losses in expected cash flows and real outcomes. These losses were broad-based, with firms exposed to China experiencing the largest losses.”  (The report makes no comment on Trump’s newly threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada or 10% tariff on Chinese goods.  It also makes no mention of the tariffs in the last four years of the Biden Administration.)

After the close, DOCU, HPE, LULU, WOOF, ULTA, VEEV, and VSCO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, COO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned toward the red side with eight of the 12 exchanges below break-even.  That said, China had a good day with Hong Kong (+1.56%), Shenzhen (+1.48%) and Shanghai (+1.05%) making the biggest moves in the region.  Japan (-0.77%), Singapore (-0.69%) and New Zealand (-0.68%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a mixed picture taking shape at midday with seven of the 14 bourses above break-even.  The CAC (+1.32%), DAX (+0.16%), and FTSE (-0.12%) lead the region in mixed early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat again.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a =0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.03% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down slightly to 4.178% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.04% to $67.59 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday we get Nov. Average Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Participation Rate, Nov. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, October Consumer Credit.  We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Daily.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DOOO and GCO.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

With that background, market is again undecided early in the premarket session.  All three major index ETFs opened close to flat and have printed very small candles with wicks on both ends up to this point of the early session. Keep in mind that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sit very near all-time highs.  All three are also still above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is now bullish.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, yesterday’s consolidation gave the T-line a chance to make up ground on the QQQ.  So, none of the big three are too far stretched from their 8ema.  The T2122 indicator ais also back in the very center of its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, five of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning while the other five show red.  GOOGL (-0.16%) is leading a tightly packed group in modest losses.  On the other side, TSLA (+1.34%) is way, way out front (by a full percent) pacing the gainers.  TLSA is also leading in terms of dollar-volume traded, sitting at a about 2.5 times as much traded than NVDA (-0.12%), which itself has traded almost 4 times as much as the next one of the big dogs.  Finally, remember its Friday.  Prepare your account for the weekend news cycles and don’t forget to take profits.  (It is payday after all.) 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was pretty much all about the open.  SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA gapped up 0.45%, and QQQ gapped up 0.66%.  From there, all three major index ETFs did some form of grinding sideways until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three started a steady, but modest, rally that ran into the close.  This action gave us gap-up, large-body, white body candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three printed new all-time highs and closed at new all-time high closes.  This happened on below-average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in the DIA.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again and the other four in the green as Energy (-1.90%) was way, way out in front leading the majority of sectors to the downside.  On the other side, Technology (+1.67%) far ahead of any other sector.   Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA lost 0.68%, and QQQ gained 1.24%. VXX gained half a percent to close at 42.33 and T2122 dropped back a little more, but remains in the top part of the mid-range to close at 64.03. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to 4.184% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.73%, closing at $68.73 per barrel. What we saw Wednesday saw gaps higher across the market.  That was followed by a sideways grind most of the day and then a modest rally into the close. All three major index ETFs printed new all-time highs and closed at new all-time high closes. So, the Bulls were clearly in control…even if most of the gain came on the opening gap higher.

The major economic news scheduled Wednesday included November ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in with lower growth than expected at +146k (versus a +166k forecast and October’s +184k reading).  Later, Nov. S&P Global Services PMI also came in light at 56.1 (compared to a 57.0 forecast, but up from October’s 55.0 value).  When combined with Tuesday’s Nov. S&P Global Mfg. PMI this gave us a Nov. S&P Global Composite PMI of 54.9 (versus a 55.3 forecast, but up from October’s 54.1 number).  Later, Oct. Factory Orders were lighter than predicted at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but up significantly from September’s -0.2% reading).  At the same time, Nov. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was down to 51.5 (versus a 53.0 forecast and October value).  Meanwhile, the Nov. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI itself was also low at 52.1 (compared to a 55.5 forecast and October’s 56.0 number).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger drawdown than anticipated at -5.073 million barrels (versus a forecasted draw of 1.600 million barrels and the previous week’s -1.844 million barrels).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told Bloomberg that he expected “additional easing of moderately restrictive policy toward neutral will be appropriate over time.” However, he hedged his bets on how much or how fast, saying, “Along this baseline path, it seems important to maintain policy optionality, and the time may be approaching to consider slowing the pace of interest rate reductions, or pausing, to carefully assess the current economic environment, incoming information and evolving outlook.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell told an interview, “We can afford to be a little more cautious as we as we try to find neutral rate.”  Powell continued, “The economy is stronger than we thought it was going to be in September … the labor market is is better, and inflation is coming a little higher.”  After his speech, Powell was asked about being undermined by a “Shadow Fed Chairman” (an idea broached by Trump’s nominated Treasury Sec.).  Powell said, “I don’t think that’s on the table at all … There’s a set of institutional relationships between the Fed and every administration … I fully expect that we’ll have the same general kinds of relationships (with Trump Admin. officials).  There’s got to be trust and mutual respect and acknowledgement of the different authorities and boundaries that we have.”

After the close, FIVE, PVH, and SNPS reported beats on both revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AEO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, GEF beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges below the break-even level.  India (+0.98%) paced the gains while Hong Kong (-0.92%) and South Korea (-0.90%) were by far the biggest losers.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with just four of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.12%), DAX (+0.31%), and FTSE (-0.08%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up a touch to 4.217% and Oil (WTI) is back up a quarter-percent to $68.67 (after an overnight slump) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Oct. Imports, Oct. Exports, Oct. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BMO, BF.A, CAL, CM, CSIQ, DG, GMS, KFY, KR, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, and TD.  Then, after the close, COO, DOCU, HPE, LULU, WOOF, ULTA, VEEV, and VSCO report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get, Nov. Average Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Participation Rate, Nov. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, October Consumer Credit.  We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Daily.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from DOOO and GCO.

So far this morning, CM, KFY, and SAIC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CSIQ missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BMO, DG, GMS, PDCO, and TD all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, CAL and SIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets seem undecided early in the premarket.  All three major index ETFs are just on the red side of flat.  QQQ started the early session with a gap down, but has rallied to print a white-bodied candle to get nearly back to even. Keep in mind that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ sit at all-time highs.  All three are above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is now bullish.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, only QQQ is now stretched above its T-line, but SPY and DIA are still not extended. The T2122 indicator remains in the top half of its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have room to move, but the Bears may have more slack to work with today. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning again, albeit on modest moves. GOOGL (+0.44%) is leading the way higher while AMD (-0.22%) is the only big dog in the red.  In a return to post-election norm, TLSA (+0.39%) is leading in terms of dollar-volume traded, sitting at a little less than 1.5 times as much traded than NVDA (+0.10%), which itself has traded almost 9 times as much as the next one of the big dogs.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service