Markets opened higher on Tuesday as the wait on CPI data continued.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA opened 0.14% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.55%.  However, at that point traders faded the gap finally recrossing it in all three major index ETFs at 10:30 a.m. and continuing south until they reached the lows of the day at 10:55 a.m.  From there, all three slowly and modestly rallied in an uneven way the rest of the day with a spurt the last 5 minutes of the session.  SPY and QQQ crossed back into their morning gap while DIA closed just below the Monday close.  This action gave us black-bodied, long-handle Hammer candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and QQQ crossed back up above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains close below its T-line. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green as Basic Materials (+0.61%) was out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Financial Services (-0.34%) was by far the weakest sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.37%.  VXX lost 0.73% to close at a very low 13.60 and T2122 rose but remains in its mid-range at 75.60.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.358% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.25% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw considerable volatility that mostly came to nothing.  At one point, all three major index ETFs were Evening Star signals, but all of them ended up as Hammers.  The way I read it, is just two groups making unsupported bets ahead of the CPI data.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the DIA, slightly below-average volume in the QQQ, and well below-average volume in the SPY. 

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks after the close, which came in with a larger inventory build than expected at 3.034 million barrels (compared to a +2.415-million-barrel forecast and much bigger than the prior week’s 2.286-million-barrel drawdown).

In FOMC speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reconfirmed his early 2024 expectation that there will only be one rate cut in 2024.  However, he also said he’s willing to changing his mind…either in terms of more than one cut in 2024 or none this year.  Yet, he reiterated that his base case it that there will be one cut in 2024.

After the close, PSMT reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, WDFC missed massively on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that BX is considering providing the financing for a $5.5 billion French cosmetics firm to go private (L’Occitane).  At the same time, JPM told its customers that sources tell it that AVGO recently won deals from GOOGL and META to produce and supply more than $9 billion in AI chips during the second half of 2024.  (Overall, JPM said the deals should account for $12 billion in AI chip sales for AVGO.)  In unrelated but simultaneous news, GOOGL announced the details of its new ARM-based AI chips made by NVDA.  These new chips are available to customers via GOOGL’s cloud computing services.  Shortly afterward, MSFT said it would invest $2.9 billion to expand its cloud AI infrastructure in Japan over the next two years.  Later, BB announced a deal with AMD to “revolutionize” BB’s robotics systems.  At the same time, BA announced it delivered only 29 planes in March (down more than half from the 64 planes in March 2023).  This capped a quarter where Ba delivered 83 jets.  At the same time, EADSY (Airbus) announced Q1 deliveries rose 12% to 142 aircraft.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that a cancer therapy developed by MRNA and MRK showed “positive results” for early-stage head and neck melanoma in a newly announced study. Later, INTC announced details of a new version of its AI chip aimed at taking on NVDA.  (INTC used TSM’s 5nm process to build the new chips and will offer the chips via servers built by SMCI and HPE by the end of Q2.)  At the same time, GM said it will resume operations of its “Robotaxi” unit Cruise with a small fleet of human-driven taxis in Phoenix AZ.  Later, HSBC announced it is selling its Argentina unit and will book a $1 billion loss from the deal.  After the close, NVS announced it will cut 680 jobs in its sales organization globally.  This includes 240 in the US and 440 in the company home base of Switzerland.  (This is separate from previously announced 7,000-8,000 jobs being cut due to restructuring.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday TSLA settled a lawsuit (for an undisclosed amount) with the family of an AAPL engineer who died while using the TSLA Autopilot feature.  At the same time, the EPA announced the finalized rules for the reduction of cancer-causing emissions from chemical plants.  (The rules apply to 200 large chemical plants, mostly located along the gulf coast in Chemical Alley around Louisianna. (The industry-influenced rule will reduce a plant’s emissions of certain cancer-causing chemicals to 23,700 tons per year.  Later, NSC agreed to pay $600 million to settle a class action lawsuit over its responsibility for the derailment and chemical spill at East Palestine OH in February 2023.  (The settlement is still subject to court approval.)  At the same time, a three-judge panel of the District of Columbia US appeals court upheld the EPA’s decision to allow the state of CA to set its own (stricter) tailpipe emissions and electric vehicle requirements. 

Meanwhile, a hacking group claimed Tuesday to have UNH’s stolen data from its eight-terabyte ransomware hack in February.  (The FBI did not comment, but Reuters reported a hacking hub reported a disgruntled hacker provided the data after a botched $22 million payment allowed their partner hackers to disappear with the bitcoin paid.)  At the same time, META reported that Malaysia has increased its requests to restrict short video content.  (51,638 requests in Q1 2024 versus 42,904 requests in all of 2023.)  Later, Reuters reported that the FAA is investigating allegations that BA whistleblowers have been retaliated against after voicing quality concerns on 787 and 777 model jets.  Elsewhere, a US federal court issued a consent decree forcing PHG to restrict the sale and production of sleep apnea machines following an FDA request.  PHG can no longer sell breathing devices in the US until it complies with FDA concern over noise dampening foam degrading to become toxic and cancerous to users. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.85%) was the biggest mover and along with Singapore (+0.67%), and India (+0.49%) paced the gainers.  On the other side, Shenzhen (-1.60%), Shanghai (-0.70%), and Japan (-0.48%) led the losses.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.61%), DAX (+0.85%), and FTSE (+0.69%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day (ahead of CPI).  The DIA implies a +0.17% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.35% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $85.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes March Core CPI and March CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), March Federal Budget Balance and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  Fed Governor Bowman also speaks at 8:45 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DAL.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, March PPI, Fed Balance Sheet as well as Fed members Williams and Bostic speaking.  Finally, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, KMX, STZ, and FAST report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.

So far this morning, DAL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. 

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, an industry group of steelmakers (World Steel Assn.) announced that it expects global steel demand to rise 1.7% in 2024 and to increase further in 2025.  This comes after two years of pandemic-induced declines.  India is expected to be the main driver of the increase in 2024 as Chinese demand is projected to continue declining.  The group also expects growth in the US market after a 2023 slowdown the group says was caused by a housing market slowdown.  At the same time, Reuters reported that Nasdaq short-interest rose 1.2% during the second half of March to 12.183 billion shares (up from 13.022 billion short as of March 15). On the NYSE, Reuters reports the short interest only rose 0.3% over the same period, from 16.051 billion shares to 16.103 billion at the end of March.

In market rate expectations news, ahead of the CPI number, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning. 100.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on no change in rates at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting.  The June meeting probabilities are showing 59.2% of contracts expecting a quarter point cut by Mid-June.  However, 40.8% predict no cut on June 12.  Even the July 31 meeting shows 24.4% of traders anticipate no change in rates by then, while 51.8% expect a quarter-point cut before August and 23.9% expect a half percent or more of cuts by that date. 

With that background, it looks as if the market is very slightly bullish but mostly undecided prior to the CPI data release. All three major index ETFs are just on the green side of flat, but are printing small-body, indecisive candles in the premarket. The SPY and QQQ are both above their T-line (8ema) in the early session, while DIA is just below its T-line and moving toward a retest. (DIA is showing us the most bullish of the early session candles with the largest white body…although it still is not a decisive move.) So the short-term trend is bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in top end of its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split so far this morning with the two biggest movers being INTC (+0.81%) and GOOGL (+0.80%). However, by far the biggest market mover is NVDA (-0.56%) and it is pacing the losses of the five down tickers among that group of 10. Finally, remember that while CPI hits today, earnings season starts again in earnest on Friday morning. So, we may still see more waiting and drifting after the CPI knee-jerk.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher on Friday after strong but unsurprising March Jobs data.  SPY gapped up 0.28%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.37%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily until 1 p.m.  Then we saw a modest selloff for 60 minutes.  Finally, we got a two-hour sideways grind into the close in all three.  This action gave us Bullish Harami signals in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. SPY and QQQ both retested their T-lines (8ema) from below and failed to close above, but did close very near that level.  DIA was clearly the weakest again.  This all came in with just below-average volume in the SPY and slightly above-average volume in the QQQ and DIA.  This gave us a bearish week with SPY down 0.89%, QQQ down 0.80%, and DIA again the weakest, down 2.24%.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red as Technology (-1.57%) was out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, Utilities (-029%) and Energy (-0.29%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.21%, DIA lost 1.32%, and QQQ lost 1.53%.  VXX spiked up 4.79% to close at a still low 14.00 and T2122 dropped but remains in its mid-range at 30.67.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.311% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.40% to $86.64 per barrel (as Ukrainian attacks take more and more Russia oil infrastructure under drone attack).  So, Thursday saw a major reversal and the first big down day since the end of January.  This move was clearly brought on by nothing more than Fed talk.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ with DIA having the largest volume (relative to average) but still only the highest volume in a week. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included March Avg. Hourly Earnings (year-on-year), which came in as expected at +4.1% (compared to a +4.1% forecast but down from February’s +4.3% value).  Interestingly, on a month-on-month basis March Avg. Hourly Earnings also came in as expected at +0.3% (versus the +0.3% forecast but up a tick from February’s +0.2% reading).  At the same time, the March Nonfarm Payrolls were very strong at +303k (compared to the +212k forecast and even more than February’s +270k).  The same was true of March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, which were +232k (versus the +160k forecast and even the February +207k value).  The March Participation Rate ticked up to 62.7% (compared to the 62.6% forecast and up two ticks from the February 62.5%).  Altogether, this meant the March Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8% (versus the 3.9% forecast and February value).  Later, February Outstanding Consumer Credit also came in better than expected at $14.12 billion (compared to a forecast of $16.20 billion and the well down from the January $17.68 billion reading).  So, jobs creation remains very strong and well above the 12-month average.  However, it is also important to know that the numbers above (+303k) are full-time equivalents that are made up in very large portion by part-time jobs as businesses continue to work hard to avoid needing to pay benefits to reduce costs.  In fact, 691k part-time jobs were created in March, with 5.2% of the total workforce holding multiple jobs.

In FOMC speak, Richmond Fed President Barkin said, “Unemployment is at 3.8%. It’s been 26 months in a row with unemployment below 4% … That’s the first time that’s happened since the late ’60s. So, the job market is very strong.”  Shortly afterward, Dallas Fed President Logan followed the recent theme, saying “I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates” … “I’m increasingly concerned about upside risk to the inflation outlook.”  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Bowman said, “While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting, we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”  She then went on to tempered the remark by saying, “We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”  (However), “it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.  (For now,) our monetary policy stance is restrictive and appears to be appropriately calibrated to reduce inflationary pressures.”

In stock news, on Friday, META announced major changes to its content labelling rules which will start applying “Made with AI” labels on videos, images, and audio posted on any of its platforms.  In addition, META said it will apply “digitally altered” labels to deceiving content.  At the same time, Reuters reported SHEL is in the final stages of negotiations to purchase of LNG trading firm Pavilion Energy.  (Saudi Aramco is also competing to buy Pavilion.)  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) CEO Blume told a German newspaper Friday that he wants to avoid “utopian goals” for the Chinese market, saying his company “cannot keep up” with other EV makers in that country and that anything more than 10% market share would be “very respectable.”  At the same time, Reuters reported three sources confirm that TSLA has canceled its long-promised inexpensive car after strong Chinese EV competition.  (Later, CEO Musk tweeted that “Reuters was lying.”  In other TSLA news, the company announced it will cut prices on its best-selling Model Y (long-range models) by at least $5,000 as it struggles with the largest car inventory it has ever had.

Elsewhere, JNJ agreed to buy SWAV in a $13.1 billion deal.  JNJ offered $335 per share (a 17% premium on the March-end price) as well as debt assumption.  At the same time, there was another twist in the PARA acquisition story.  CNBC reported the Skydance deal is more of a merger (as opposed to the rejected $26 billion APO offer to buy PARA).  In addition, Skydance would either become a majority shareholder or just a significant minority shareholder.  In either case, the deal would require PARA to raise $3 billion in new equity.  (Skydance already has a tentative deal in place to buy 77% of the voting shares of PARA from their current owner.)  After the close, CEO Musk said TSLA will unveil a “robotaxi” on August 8.  On Saturday, Reuters reported that AAPL laid off 600 workers (not at their Cupertino HQ), rumored to have been part of the company’s now canceled car project.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a new class-action lawsuit was filed against TSLA, alleging the carmaker of many wage law violations against both factory and warehouse workers.  The suit claims TSLA failed to pay overtime, provide breaks, or reimburse employees for work-related expenses.  Later, a US federal appeals court ruled 3-0 to revive a lawsuit against COIN by its customers who allege the exchange illegally sold them unregistered securities and failed to register as a broker-dealer.  At the same time, the FDA gave accelerated approval to an AZN drug to treat a type of solid tumor.  After the close, PG announced it is recalling 8.2 million defective bags of laundry detergent pods (Tide, Gain, Ace, and Ariel brands) due to a packaging defect that may pose a risk to children.  Also after the close, AAPL filed a motion urging a US appeals court to overturn a US trade tribunal’s decision to ban imports of some Apple Watches due to its infringement of a MASI patent.  Elsewhere, AAPL announced they will allow (were beaten by EU law) app store music streaming apps to link to those service’s own websites and inform users of ways other than the Apple App Store to buy digital services.  Later, a MO judge reduced a $1.56 billion verdict against BAYRY (Bayer = Monsanto) to $611 million after the trial that found the chemicals in their weed killer caused cancer in three people.  BAYRY said they would appeal this appeal.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side with the notable exception of China.  Japan (+0.91%), India (+0.68%), and Taiwan (+0.39%) led the eight gaining exchanges higher.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.57%) and Shanghai (-0.72%) paced the four losing exchanges.  In Europe, the bourses are almost green across the board at midday with only one of 15 exchanges showing red…and barely red at that.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.13%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have spiked to 4.446% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.79% to $86.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (11 a.m.) and Fed member Kashkari speaks at 7 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday and there are none at all scheduled for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, March Core CPI, March CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, March Federal Budget Balance, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, March PPI, Fed Balance Sheet as well as Fed members Williams and Bostic speaking.  Finally, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PSMT and WDFC report.  Then on Wednesday, we hear from DAL.  On Thursday, KMX, STZ, and FAST report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.

In miscellaneous news, on Saturday, Treasury Sec. Yellen scolded China, saying they are treating America and other foreign countries “unfairly” in terms of trade.  In addition to complaining about Chinese protectionism, Sec. Yellen said that China is producing more of some products than the world economy can absorb (cheap exports).  Yellen also said that the US reserves the right to protect additional sectors (read additional tariffs, import bans, and potentially trade bans).  Yellen went on to recommend that China focus more on stimulating Chinese consumer spending than on subsidizing export product manufacture.  (I’m sure this as constructive criticism and sincere advice with no ulterior motives.)  Brazil, the UK, and Japan concurred with Yellen’s general drift accusing China of dumping exports on the world market at a loss to drive global competitors out of business.

In market expectations news, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning. 99.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on no change in rates at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting.  (The other percent are betting on a quarter-point rate cut at that time.)  The June meeting probabilities are showing 48.2% of contracts expecting no change by Mid-June.  However, 51.2% predict a quarter point cut on June 12 and 0.5% expect a half-point cut by then.  Even the July 31 meeting shows 30.3% of traders anticipate no change in rates by then, while 50.1% expect a quarter-point cut before August and 19.6% expect a half percent or more of cuts by that date.

In late-breaking news, early Monday it was announced that TSM will receive up to $6.6 billion in US grants as well as a potential loan of up to $5 billion as part of the CHIPS act.  The exact amounts are subject to what TSM actually invests in its new AZ chip fab plants.  (TSM has previously announced it would invest $65 billion in the project.  The company also already has contracts in place to supply AAPL and AMD from the facility once the new fabs come on line.)  Elsewhere, sticking to the theme of her trip, Treasury Sec. Yellen met again with Chinese officials Monday.  Yellen continued to push on the “over-capacity” in China’s industrial sector that is flooding global markets with under-priced (subsidized) Chinese exports.  Therefore, Yellen is pushing China to change its policy focus toward stimulating Chinese consumer demand rather than on full employment via infrastructure and industrial investment.  For their part, Chinese officials seem to be continuing to push back saying that deflation and banking system stability are what they see as their top risks.  Finally, SAVE announced Monday it will push off its planned 2025 and 2026 plane deliveries from EADSY (Airbus) and is laying off 260 pilots in an effort to shore up company liquidity.

With that background, it looks as if the market is undecided early Monday. All three major index ETFs are just on the green side of flat, but are near highs of the premarket. The SPY and QQQ are both retesting their T-line (8ema) in the early session, while DIA is not quite to the retest level. Still, all three remain below their T-line (8ema) at this point. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are modestly in the red this morning. However, the two biggest big dogs are green with TSLA (+1.75% in the premarket) pushing. Finally, remember that earnings season starts again later this week and we have CPI on Wednesday. So, the early part of the week may be an indecisive waiting game.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a massive midday reversal. To start the day, SPY gapped 0.79% higher, DIA gapped up 0.69%, and QQQ gapped up a whopping 1.04%. At that point, SPY and QQQ traded sideways (give or take some mid-morning wobble) until early afternoon. At the same time, DIA sold down into the gap for just under a half hour and then also traded sideways in a tight rang until early afternoon.  Midday, Fed talk took the floor out from under us as SPY and DIA started a steep selloff at 1 p.m.  QQQ tried to hold up at its open level for 30 minutes, but then followed the large-cap index ETFs lower in its own steep selloff.  Those selloffs lasted right into the close as all three ended up near their lows of the day.  This action gave us huge black Bearish Engulfing candles in SPY and QQQ as well as a huge, black Doji Engulf in the DIA.  All three started the day above and sold back down through their T-line (8ema).  All three also crossed down their 17ema and the 8ema even crossed down the 17ema in the DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red as Technology (-1.57%) was out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, Utilities (-029%) and Energy (-0.29%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.21%, DIA lost 1.32%, and QQQ lost 1.53%.  VXX spiked up 4.79% to close at a still-low 14.00 and T2122 dropped but remains in its mid-range at 30.67.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.311% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.40% to $86.64 per barrel (as Ukrainian attacks take more and more Russian oil infrastructure under drone attack).  So, Thursday saw a major reversal and the first big down day since the end of January.  This move was clearly brought on by nothing more than Fed talk.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ with DIA having the largest volume (relative to average) but still only the highest volume in a week. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 221k (compared to a forecast of 213k and the prior week’s 212k).  In the ongoing category, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,791k (versus the prior week’s 1,810k).  At the same time, Feb. Exports were up at $263.00 billion (compared to a January reading of $257.20 billion).  Still, Feb. Imports were up even more at $331.90 billion (versus a January value of $324.80 billion).  This led to an increased Feb Trade Balance of $68.90 billion (compared to a forecast of $66.90 billion and January’s $67.60 billion).

However, the real news of the day was Fed speak, which included Richmond Fed President Barkin who continued the Fed theme of there is no hurry.  Barkin said that inflation data “has been a little less encouraging,” (in early 2024).   He went on to say “No one wants inflation to reemerge. And given a strong labor market, we have time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down.”  Later, the big news maker was Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (who had forecast 2 rates cuts this year at the March FOMC meeting) when he said “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.”  Kashkari went on to say cuts were “not off the table, but they are also not a likely scenario given what we know right now. There’s a lot of momentum in the economy right now.” Elsewhere, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said “The biggest danger to the inflation picture in my view… (is) the continued high inflation in housing services.”  He continued, “I have been expecting it to come down more quickly than it has. If it does not come down, we will have a very difficult time getting overall inflation back to the 2% target.” Goolsbee then went on to say, “(Still,) If we stay restrictive for too long, we will likely see the employment side of the mandate begin to deteriorate.”  Finally, Cleveland Fed President Mester seemed to somewhat contradict Kashkari.  Mester said, “we need to see more evidence that confirms that…and once I see that, then I think we’re in a position to move interest rates down.”

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that TSLA had begun making cars in Germany for export to India.  These will be the first sales into India by TSLA and came after meetings with the Modi government and opening TSLA part factories in that country.  At the same time, IP announced it will seek a secondary listing in London as part of its deal to buy British rival DS Smith.  Later, Reuters reported that GOOGL is talking to investment banks about obtaining financing to buy HUBS.  (HUBS currently has a $32 billion market value.)  At the same time, PEP announced it had reached an agreement with major European retailer Carrefour after a three-month pricing dispute.  This will allow PEP products to return to shelves in France and is expected to expand to include Belgium, Italy, Poland, and Spain.  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) and BA are negotiating how to split up SPR in a buyout of the supplier to both.  At the same time, ALK announced that BA paid the airline $160 million compensation for the grounding of the airline’s 737 MAX 9 jets for inspection earlier this year.  The statement said this was “initial compensation” implying there will be more paid.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported CG is “exploring strategic options” (including sale) of its StandardAero unit.  (StandardAero generated $4.6 billion in revenue in 2023.)  Later, DIS announced it will follow the lead of NFLX and will start cracking down on password sharing for its DIS+ service beginning in June.  DIS CEO Iger said it expects to boost the number of subscribers and make DIS+ profitable.  At the same time, F announced it is delaying the launches of two electric vehicles and instead will focus on boosting hybrid vehicle projects.  After the close, JNJ announced it recommends shareholders reject an unsolicited “mini-tender” by TRC Capital, which is seeking to acquire 1 million shares of JNJ for $151.23 per share.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that GS is getting ahead of Fed rate cuts by lowering the rate paid to consumers (by its Marcus consumer bank). GS lowered the rate by a tenth of a percent from 4.5% to 4.4%, which was the first reduction in three years.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, a US district court judge ruled BAC must face the class action lawsuit alleging the bank reneged on a promise to refund overdraft fees to customers facing financial hardship due to COVID-19.  Later, C, JPM, and RY signed agreements with New York City.  Under the agreement, the banks will disclose a new climate metric based on their financing of low-carbon energy projects versus financing for fossil fuel projects.  At the same time, a five-judge NY state appeals court ruled that PARA investors may sue GS, MS, and other banks that underwrote the PARA stock offerings.  The suit alleges the banks disclosed they “may conduct transactions” that had already been planned, which materially impacted the stock price.  Later, CBOE filed a request with the SEC, seeking regulatory approval to allow ETFs to be added to the mutual fund class.  Analysts say that if approved, the move would likely greatly increase the number and assets within ETFs.  (Previously, Vanguard had a patent on that asset class but the patent expired in May 2023.)  After the close, the FDA disclosed it has sent warning letters to major retailers (and filed civil penalty suits against some) related to the sale of ZYN nicotine pouches (from PM) to underage (younger than 21) customers.

In other news, the National Federation of Independent Businesses announced that its March survey of US small businesses found that hiring plans were the weakest since May 2020.  The survey found that just 11% of surveyed firms plan to create new jobs in the next three months.  (This is down from 12% in February.)  The report concludes that “Job creation plans are now below what would be typical in a strong growth economy.”  However, the report also said “For now, employment activity remains solid, although waning from peak levels.”  Elsewhere, BAC researchers announced findings of their fund analysis saying that “actively managed” funds posted their best quarterly outperformance of indexes since 2007 during Q1.  (64% of active funds outperformed the Russell 1000 large-cap index.  For reference, only 38% of funds outperformed the index in Q1 2023.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the red side with only two of 12 exchanges in the green.  Japan (-1.96%), South Korea (-1.01%), and Taiwan (-0.63%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only one exchange holding onto green (barely).  The CAC (-1.40%), DAX (-1.42%), and FTSE (-0.95%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a bounce back green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.20% open, the SPY is implying a ++0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.33% and oil (WTI) is flat at $86.61 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, and March Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Feb. Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to GBX.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the global securities exchange watchdog group IOSCO proposed detailed guidance on how regulators in the US, Europe, and Asia and supervise stock exchanges.  The group argued that exchanges have increasingly become listed companies and have massively expanded geographically.  However, the exchanges remain essentially self-regulating despite potential conflicts of interest.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice told a US district court that settlement talks had ended in an impasse.  As a result, the court scheduled a trial in January 2026 in the US criminal charges against Chinese tech company Huawei, alleging the company and its CEO misled US banks about the company’s business with Iran (violating sanctions).  This may impact US-China relations further, possibly leading to a retaliatory case filing in China. 

In late-breaking news, Treasury Sec. Yellen is in China for the first of four days of talks with various Chinese officials.  In prepared remarks, she called on China to pursue more market-oriented reforms be open to discussion of over-capacity problems.  She also called on China to collaborate on climate change and share “national security economic actions.”  (Yellen is not scheduled to meet with President Xi, but is meeting today with Vice Premier Lifeng in southern China before traveling to Beijing Saturday for talks with Premier Qieng, Finance Minister Fo’an, and even Beijing city officials.  Finally, business analyst firm Creditsafe reported that certain retailers have recently been noticed to be paying bills late.  While not always an indicator of anything, since many healthy firms always pay their invoices late, it is a possible sign of financial stress.  Among the retailers cited were PTON, EXPR, and BBWI.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are looking to push back against Thursday’s “Kashkari-induced” selloff. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly higher to start the premarnet and are following through with small white-body candles in the early session. Of course, this comes before the March Jobs data. Still, all three remain below their T-line (8ema) to start the early session. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line (although DIA is pushing it) and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL lagging in the red. (Note that this is exactly the same as Thursday morning.) With all that said, it will be March Jobs data that calls the tune at least early today. Finally, remember its Friday…payday. So, pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the open Wednesday as SPY started down 0.18%, QQQ gapped down 0.48%, and DIA opened dead flat.  SPY and QQQ immediately recrossed the gap and then traded sideways from 10:30 a.m. to 2:45 p.m.  At that point, the two market- leading index ETFs sold back down and recrossed the gap before rallying the last 30 minutes of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA traded higher until 10 a.m., traded sideways until 2 p.m., sold off until 3:20 p.m., and rallied modestly the last 40 minutes.  This action gave us white-body candles with upper wicks in the SYP and QQQ.  Both retested their T-line (8ema) but closed back below.  However, the DIA gave us a black body Doji candle that never quite retested its own T-line.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green as Basic Materials (+1.14%) was out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.96%) was by far the weakest sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.22%.  VXX lost 0.52% to close at a still low 13.38 and T2122 climbed but remains in its mid-range at 73.76.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.351% and Oil (WTI) rose another 0.59% to $85.65 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was mostly a bullish, but indecisive day that did not change anything overall in the market.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which came in quite strong at 184k (compared to a forecast of 148k and a February reading of 155k).  Later, March S&P Global Services PMI was exactly as predicted at 51.7 (versus the 51.7 forecast but down from February’s 52.3).  At the same time, March S&P Global Composite PMI was a tick low at 52.1 (compared to a 52.2 forecast but down from February’s 52.5 value).  Later, March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was down at 48.5 (versus the 49.0 forecast but up from the February 48.0 reading).  At the same time, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was lower than predicted at 51.4 (compared to a 52.8 forecast and the previous value of 52.6).  March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index showed prices lower at 53.4 (versus a forecast of 58.4 and a Feb. reading of 58.6).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger inventory build than anticipated +3.210 million barrels (compared to a predicted drawdown of 0.300 million barrels and even slightly larger than the previous week’s +3.165 million barrels).

In Fed speak news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic came out with a hawkish outlook that expects one rate cut in 2024, not coming until Q4.  Bostic said, “We’ve seen inflation kind of become much more bumpy,” … “If the economy evolves as I expect and that’s going to be seeing continued robustness in GDP and employment, and a slow decline in inflation over the course of the year, I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell said, “If the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year.”  Powell said  that recent data had not materially changed the Fed’s outlook, which continues “to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2 percent on a sometimes bumpy path.”  Still, Powell also said that cuts would not start until “we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent.”  Later, Fed Governor Kluger said “I expect the disinflationary trend to continue.” (Saying that would pave the way for rate cuts over the course of the year.)  She continued, “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.”

After the close, LEVI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, BB reported a massive miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LEVI raised forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported SPOT will increase prices for the second time in a year.  (The report indicated prices will increase $1 – $2 per month by the end of April.)  In addition, SPOT will offer a new pricing tier on $11/month which will include only music and podcasts (but not audiobooks).  At the same time, Taiwan was hit with the largest earthquake since 1999.   This caused TSM (the world’s largest chip maker) to temporarily close some its plants.  Hours later workers returned to the plants to begin inspections prior to restart of those cleanroom tight fab. TSM management said this could cause a “short-term hiccup” to electronics manufacturers.  Later, F reported a 6.8% rise in US Q1 auto sales.  At the same time, AMZN announced it will cut several hundred “sales, marketing, and tech” jobs in its cloud computing unit.  (The timing is a bit suspect since AMZN announced it will be investing an additional $10 billion per year for each of the next 15 years…$150 billion overall…to expand its cloud computing unit.)  That business unit has 60,000 employees, putting the “few hundred” into perspective.  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) delivered 142 planes in Q1, up 12% from Q1 2023.  Still, this was six planes shy of company goals for Q1.  (EADSY refused comment on the report.)  At the same time, 5,000 pilots at JBLU began negotiations with the company for a new labor contract.  Later, the CEO of ULTA warned that Q1 demand was lackluster for his company and across the industry.   (ULTA fell 15.34% on the comments while peers COTY was down 6.28% and EL fell 4.12%.)  At the same time, HXSCL (SK Hynix), the second largest computer memory chip maker and a major supplier to NVDA, announced it will invest $3.87 billion to build a plant in the state of IN.  This plant would begin full production in H2 2028. 

Elsewhere, DIS management won its battle with shareholders choosing CEO Iger’s slate over the slate proposed by activist Iger opponent Nelson Peltz.  Later, COST announced it will offer members access to weight-loss programs, including access to the hit prescription drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is now exploring a move into personal robotics as its “next big thing.”  Later, Reuters reported that sources tell it that BA plane deliveries fell sharply in recent weeks as the FAA has increased quality audits.  After the close, MSFT announced that it (in partnership with Quantinuum) had achieved a breakthrough in quantum computers, making them much more reliable.  (Quantum computes basic unit is a “qubit” which are notoriously error prone.  MSFT said their partnership has developed an error correction algorithm that allow quantum computers to have 800 times fewer errors than any other quantum effort.)  Also after the close, the Financial Times reported that GOOGL is planning to charge for its “AI-powered search engine.”  Meanwhile, XOM made a filing saying that it expects Q1 results to be weaker based on lower oil and gas prices.  At the same time, Reuters reported AAPL has had 6,400 app store users reported outages in addition to service losses for Apple Music and Apple TV+.  Later, Reuters reported PARA has entered into exclusive merger negotiations with Skydance, a private equity firm.  (This comes days after PARA received a $26 billion all-cash offer from APO.)  It is worth noting Bloomberg reported Wednesday that PARA’s controlling shareholder has already reached a tentative agreement to sell her stake to Skydance.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the Fed has blocked a push by global banking watchdogs to make climate risk a focus of financial rules.  (The ECB is pushing for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to demand lenders make and meet climate commitments in their lending starting January 2026.)  At the same time, the UAW filed allegations with the NLRB, claiming that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) management have taken “fierce backlash” measures against union organizers at its AL plant.  Later, a federal judge ruled in favor of ABUS and against MRNA in three of four patent disputes.  This will allow a trial over damages to begin in a year (April 2025).  After the close, Reuters reported that the EU will drop its “sovereignty requirement,” which will make it much easier for AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT to bid on EU cloud computing contracts.  This came after a draft of cybersecurity certification scheme scrapped the requirement that vendors should be “independent from non-EU laws” (meaning EU-based).  Elsewhere, unsurprisingly, T, VZ, CMCSA, and other telecom industry members have filed opposition to the FCC plan to reinstate “net neutrality” rules thrown out by the Trump administration.  Later, the FDA approved an antibiotic for staph infections from BPMUF.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed.  South Korea (+1.29%) and Malaysia (+1.06%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.22%) and Taiwan (-0.63%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the green side at midday with only five of 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (+0.06%), DAX (+0.10%), and FTSE (+0.41%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are up slightly to 3.363% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $85.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday, includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the CEO of STLA told an auto industry group that the industry needs to halve the weight of batteries in an electric vehicle over the next decade.  (The average electric vehicle now has 1,000 pounds of battery in it.)  He said he thinks that is achievable with many improvements already in the works.  Still, he said the industry still needs a breakthrough in terms of energy density.  He also commented on hydrogen vehicles, saying that “for the time being” affordability is a showstopper for all except large corporate fleets.  Elsewhere, European authorities released a report saying (the obvious to me) that social media stock tips may influence stock prices in the short term, but have no impact in the long run.  The report went on to say it is important to hold financial media to accuracy standards in news and data reported…but this is not the case for social media since the impacts are “only short term.”  (It is worth noting the meme stock craze drove GME up 1,600 percent at one point.) 

So far this morning, CAG and RPM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (RDUS and LW report closer to the open).

With that background, it looks as if markets are looking to gap higher to start the day (ahead of data still). The SPY an QQQ both gapped up across their T-line (8ema) to start the early session. Meanwhile, DIA gapped up close to its own T-line. From there, all three major index ETFs have given us tiny, white-body, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. So the short-term trend is very modestly bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL lagging in the red. So, expect a bullish start to the day unless Jobless Claims are a major surprise causing a turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets gapped lower to start the day.  SPY gapped down 0.76%, DIA gapped down 0.84%, and QQQ gapped down 1.12%.  However, from that point, all three major index ETFs ground sideways along the opening levels.  With a modest rally the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-down Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed white-body Hammers, while the DIA printed a black-body hammer.  All three gapped down through their T-line (8ema) and never came close to retesting it.  This all happened on roughly average volume (with SPY the weakest of the three in that sense).

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red as Energy (+1.28%) was far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Healthcare (-1.60%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.45%) were by far the weakest sectors and led the way lower.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.63%, DIA lost 0.94%, and QQQ lost 0.86%.  VXX gained 2.51% to close at a still low 13.47 and T2122 pulled back to the center of its mid-range at 51.13.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.353% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.96% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a gap-down day where essentially all of the move happened at the open.  The rest of the day was just treading water as markets start off Q2 similarly to the way they started off Q1…full of fear and uncertainty.  Still, we know how Q1 ended up (the strongest quarter in 5 years).  So, the bulls have not given up hope or anything of that sort.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included February Factory Orders, which came in stronger than expected at +1.4% (compared to a forecast of +1.1% and especially compared to the -3.8% in January).  At the same time, February JOLTs Job Openings were slightly lower than predicted at 8.756 million (versus a forecast of 8.760 million but still up from January’s 8.748 million reading).  After the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.286 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.000 million barrels and far down from the prior week’s 9.337-million-barrel inventory build). So, overall, the economy still shows as strong with better-than-expected factory orders and a large number of job openings.

In Fed speak news, Cleveland Fed President Mester said she continued to expect rate cuts this year.  However, Mester indicated that the bigger risk (to the FOMC) is still in cutting rates too soon rather than too late.  She said, “with labor markets and economic growth both being very solid, we do not need to take that risk.”  Mester continued, “If the labor market deteriorates, we can move rates down sooner and more quickly than in our baseline. Rather than view this as a normalization, the intention would be to return to an accommodative stance of monetary policy to support the economy.”  Later, San Francisco Fed President Daly said she still expects three rate cuts in 2024.  Still, she said, there isn’t enough convincing data yet to warrant starting the cuts. Daly said, “three reductions this year is a very reasonable baseline.”  However, she quickly added, “Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise.” … “We’re getting there, but it’s not going to be tomorrow, but it’s (also) not going to be forever.”

After the close, CALM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, PLAY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, TSLA revealed its Q1 vehicle deliveries fell 8.5% from Q1 of 2023.  However, this was also down 20% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2023.  (This was TSLA’s first year-on-year decline since Q2 2020.)  Later, SLB announced it will acquire competitor CHX for $7.75 billion.  (CHX shareholders will get $40.59 per share, which is a 14.6% premium on the Monday closing price.)  At the same time, UBS announced a new $2 billion share buyback program (up to half completed by the end of Q2).  Later, TM reported a huge 20% increase in Q1 auto sales in the US.  (TM sold 565,098 in Q1 2024 compared to 469,558 in Q1 of 2023.)  In contrast, GM reported that Q1 sales fell 1.5% versus Q1 of 2023 (594,233 in Q1 2024 versus 603,208 in Q1 2023).  At the same time, BABA announced it had bought back $4.8 billion of its stock in Q1 as part of its planned $25 billion buyback through Q1 2027.  Later, Bloomberg reported that HON is considering selling its COVID protective gear business unit in a deal reportedly more than $2 billion.  Elsewhere, APO (owner of Yahoo) announced Yahoo had acquired the AI-driven news platform Artifact for an undisclosed sum.  At the same time, GE announced it has completed its three-way breakup (into GE, GEV, and GEHC).  Later, the USW union representing employees of X announced it would not support the takeover agreement of Nippon Steel for roughly $14.1 billion.  The union said Nippon Steels job protection pledges were “meaningless” because of the open-ended wording that would allow the company to skirt promises to both workers and retirees.  After the close, the largest investor of DIS (Vanguard) announced it had cast its votes in support of management’s (CEO Iger’s) slate of directors in Iger’s fight with activist investor Peltz.  Also after the close, the Washington Post reported that the US Cyber Safety Review Board is expected to release its report into lapses by MSFT that allowed hackers to hack State Dept. and Dept. of Commerce email addresses last year via MSFT’s Exchange mail servers.  Meanwhile, INTC disclosed an increasing and now $7 billion operating loss from its chip-making unit for 2023.  (This is up from $5.2 billion loss from the same unit in 2022.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, it was announced that recreational pot will be on the November ballot in the state of FL.  (This led to a spike in pot stocks like TLRY, ACB, and CGC.)  Later, the FDA announced that it has approved an ABT heart valve repair device.  This comes months after the FDA approved a rival product from EW.  At the same time, DUK filed a rate increase request with the Florida Public Service Commission, looking to pass $820 million in costs onto 1.97 million FL residents it serves.  Later, the FDA said some dosages of LLY’s Mounjaro diabetes drug will be in short supply the rest of 2024 due to soaring demand.  (This is one of the drugs approved for weight loss under a different brand name.)  At the same time, the Biden Administration announced it had responded to offers from the makers of the 10 highest priced drugs covered by Medicare.  These include BMY, MRK, JNJ, ABBV, AMGN, LLY, NVO, and AZN.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will meet with the families of victims of the two BA 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019. The DOJ is evaluating whether BA violated the terms of its January 2021 agreement to avoid criminal prosecution then. Later, several anti-smoking groups sued the FDA, demanding the agency ban menthol-flavored cigarettes.  This comes after an August final decision was pushed back to March and again missed amidst lobbying by MO and BTI (both of which get more than 20% of their revenue from menthol brands).  At the same time, the FDIC announced it is considering a plan to push BLK, STT, and Vanguard back into passive roles in the banking system.  At the moment all three own more than 10% of many FDIC-regulated banks, including JPM, BAC, WFC, and C. Later, MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) workers in AL filed for a unionization vote with the NRLB.  (The vote could happen within days.)  After the close, C filed motions with a federal judge urging the dismissal of a suit brought by the Attorney General of NY, alleging the company failed to reimburse fraud victims and coercing them into giving up legal remedies before summarily dismissing their claims.  C urged the dismissal based on a Uniform Commercial Code standard that excuses banks from doing so if it had taken “commercially reasonable” security measures to verify customer identities.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  South Korea (-1.68%), Australia (-1.34%), and Hong Kong (-1.22%) led the region lower.  India (-0.08%) and Shanghai (-0.18%) held up much better than other exchanges.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only three of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.23%), DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (-0.37%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.365% and Oil (WTI) is up another seven-tenths of a percent to $85.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m., March S&P Global Services PMI and March S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 p.m.), March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bowman (9:45 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (12:10 p.m.), and Fed Vice Chair Barr (1:10 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI.  Then, after the close, BB and LEVI report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In EV adoption news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that electric vehicles are on track to outnumber petrol vehicles by the end of this year or early 2025 at the latest in Norway.  (Nine out of every 10 cars sold in Norway during Q1 was electric.)  This is an extremely interesting nugget for two reasons.  First, obviously Norway is located far to the North in a cold climate…and batteries do not perform as well in cold temperatures.  Secondly, Norway has huge oil reserves relative to the population. Logically, you might think this should mean gasoline and diesel are cheaper there. You’d be wrong. Norway has among the highest fuel taxes in the world, Norway has small refining capacity, and the Norwegian Krone is a very weak currency (making the oil commodity relatively expensive).

In commodity news, the White House said Tuesday that it is open to ending the current temporary pause in LNG exports if that would help get Ukraine aid passed.  (There is a current pause on approval of NEW LNG export projects while climate impacts are studied.)  This White House proposal comes after House Speaker Johnson (from LA, a major LNG exporting state) told FOX Sunday that reversing the “Biden pause” could make it easier for his party to support a Ukraine aid package.

In mortgage news, the national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage fell slightly to 6.91% from the prior week’s 6.93% rate.  Loan origination points also fell slightly from 0.60% to 0.59%.  As a result, applications for loans to refinance a home fell 2% week-on-week and were 5% lower than the same week in 2023.  However, applications for new home purchase loans slipped only 0.1% from the prior week, but were 13% lower than the same week in 2023. 

With that background, it looks as if markets are modestly bearish in the early session. All three major index ETFs gapped a bit lower to start the premarket. However, they’re all also putting in small, white-bodied, indecisive candles up to this point this morning. The SPY, QQQ, and DIA are all below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bullish with the notable caveat that QQQ is consolidating in a choppy sideways action. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is smack in the center of its mid-range. So, both sides have plenty of room to run if they can find traction. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red. However, only INTC is getting hammered hard (on last evening’s reveal of a $7 billion loss from their chip foundry unit). Unfortunately, the dog swinging the biggest sticks (NVDA and TSLA) are in that group of eight. So, expect a down start unless morning news causes a major turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, SPY and QQQ opened dead flat while DIA opened up 0.11%.  From that point, SPY traded sideways in a very tight range until 2:45 p.m.  At the same time, DIA recrossed its small opening gap and then traded sideways along the previous close in a tight range until 2:45 p.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ also traded sideways with a little more volatility until noon, and then sold off very modestly until 2:45 p.m.  Then at a quarter to 3 p.m., all three major index ETFs rallied to the highs of the day at 3:30 pm and sold off back down the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three, with a Gravestone Doji in the SPY, a Doji in the DIA, and a small, black-bodied Inverted Hammer in the QQQ.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema) and SPY printed a new all-time high with DIA missing the same by a few cents.  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Energy (+1.02%) leading the way up while Technology (-0.14%) oddly again lagged and was the only sector in the red. (Odd in that the market remains bullish and for the last two or more years when that was the case, Tech led the way.)  At the same time, SPY lost 0.02%, DIA gained 0.05%, and QQQ lost 0.18%. VXX gained 1.57% to close at a still very low 12.97 and T2122 pulled back 2.26% but remains in the top half of its overbought territory at 92.87.  10-year bond yields rose to 4.206% and Oil (WTI) rose another 2.16% to $83.11 per barrel.  So, Thursday was an indecisive or treading water day, maybe due to PCE data coming out on a non-trading Friday.  This brought us to a +0.36% week in the SPY, +0.82% week in the DIA, and a -0.53% week in the QQQ.  For the month, SPY gained 2.95%, DIA gained 2.00%, and QQQ gained 1.14%.  On the quarter, SPY gained 10.05%, DIA gained 5.54%, and QQQ gained 8.42%.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below expectations at 210k (compared to a forecast and previous week reading of 212k).  The ongoing or Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were just a bit higher than predicted at 1,819k (versus the 1,815k forecast and up from the prior week’s 1,795k).  At the same time, Q4 GDP was stronger than expected at +3.4% (compared to the +3.2% forecast but below a blowout +4.9% reading in Q3). Meanwhile, the Q4 GDP Price Index was a tick higher than anticipated at +1.7% (versus a +1.6% forecast but far down from the Q3 +3.3%).  Later, Chicago PMI was below the expected level at 41.4 (compared to a 45.9 forecast and the 44.0 previous reading).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was stronger than predicted at 79.4 (versus a 76.5 forecast and a 75.2 February value).  At the same time, the Michigan Consumer Expectations were also stronger than predicted at 77.4 (compared to a 74.6 forecast and February 75.2 reading).  In terms of inflation, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were a tick lower than anticipated at +2.9% (versus a +3.0% forecast and a +3.0% February value).  The Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also a tick lower than expected at +2.8% (compared to the +2.9% forecast and Feb. reading).  Later, the Feb. Pending Home Sales were also strong than expected at +1.6% (versus a +1.4% forecast and far better than the January -4.7% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $29 billion reduction week-on-week at $7.485 trillion (down from the prior week’s $7.514 trillion).

On Friday, despite being a market holiday, the February Core PCE Price Index came in as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but down significantly from January’s +0.5%).  On an annual basis, the February Core PCE Price Index also came in just as expected at +2.8% (versus a forecast of +2.8% and down from January’s +2.9%).  Meanwhile, the headline February PCE Price Index (month-on-month) was down to +0.3% (compared to a forecast and January reading of +0.4%).  On an annual basis, the headline February PCE Price Index was in line with predictions at +2.5% (versus a +2.5% forecast but up a tick from January +2.4% value).  At the same time, the Preliminary Feb. Goods Trade Balance was a bit worse than anticipated at -$91.84 billion (compared to a $-90.10 billion forecast and a -$90.51 billion January reading).  Elsewhere, the Feb. Personal Spending was up significantly at +0.8% (versus a forecast of +0.5% and a January +0.2% number).  Finally, Preliminary February Retail Inventories were up to +0.4% (compared to a January value of +0.3%). 

In FOMC-speak news, on Friday, Fed Chair Powell spoke at a San Francisco Fed event.  Powell said, the “inflation is along the lines of what we would like to see.”  In comments about Friday’s February PCE data release, Powell said “(The data was) not as low as most of the good readings we got in the second half of last year, but it’s definitely more along the lines of what we want to see (than January’s values).”…“it is what we were expecting.”  He continued, “The decision to begin to reduce rates is a very, very important one … The economy is strong right now, and the labor market is strong right now, and inflation has been coming down. We can and we will be careful about this decision because we can be.” (Essentially, he continued the Fed’s line that things are good now and there is no need to take chances or rock the boat until the committee is sure.)

In stock news, on Thursday, AMC announced an equity offering, saying the company will “from to time” sell stock with a value up to $250 million.  At the same time, Chinese tech company Xiaomi entered the electric vehicle market by debuting a $30,000 car (cheaper than TSLA Model 3) in China.  The move intensifies the EV market in at the very least in China.  In unrelated news, Reuters reported TSLA deliveries in China fell 5% during Q1 compared to the prior quarter.  (TSLA still delivered 8% more cars in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023, but down from Q4.)  Later, WBA announced it took a $5.8 billion charge in Q4 relate to its acquisition of VillageMD (160 medical clinics).  At the same time, F told Reuters it is considering producing its new hybrid sports-utility vehicle in Spain.  (This is likely related to EU scrutiny of Chinese EV makers and incentives.)  Later, PM announced it is near to launching its flagship IQOS heated tobacco device in Austin TX.  This will be the first test marketing of that device in the US.  (MO and BTI already offer competitive devices in limited test marketing in the US.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL has ramped up production of its new iPad Pro overseas and will likely launch the new product in May.  (The original launch date was March, but the software for the device is still in development and was pushed back.)  The new model iPad Pro will have AAPL’s newest M3 chip.  Later, NXPI (the largest chip maker for cars) introduced a new platform to simplify and speed the software development of its carmaker customers and their partners such as ACN, BB, QNX, ETAS, SNPS, and several others.  At the same time NTR (largest global potash fertilizer producer) announced it is exploring the sale of its operations in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay as part of a strategic restructuring.  (NTR took a $465 million impairment on South American operations in 2023.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, EU regulators told Reuters they are considering the introduction of tougher rules on “zero tobacco” heat sticks offered by PM and BTI.  The companies currently use materials like nicotine-infused tea in the sticks, which are both addictive and pose potential health risks.  Later, a US district judge mostly dismissed a lawsuit accusing grocery chain Trader Joe’s of misleading and endangering consumers by failing to disclose that its dark chocolate contained harmful levels of heavy metals like lead and cadmium. The judge dismissed five claims while allowing claims brought from IL, NY, and WA to proceed (because those states have more specific laws).  At the same time, the Dutch government announced it would spend $2.7 billion to improve infrastructure in the Eindhoven region to prevent ASML from moving production operations abroad.  Later, REYN was sued for alleged false advertising in that the company’s premier Reynolds Wrap aluminum foil is labeled as “Made in USA” while only a small fraction of its materials (like aluminum) come from the US.  At the same time, a federal judge in CA appeared poised to reject TSLA’s bid to have a racial discrimination and harassment case thrown out.  The judge has not filed her ruling, but disagreed with TSLA counsel’s assertions many times during Thursday’s hearing.  Moreover, the judge seemed to agree the EEOC had included (cited) the relevant evidence in their own filing.  Elsewhere a federal just dismissed seven lawsuits against GS and MS related to misconduct that added fuel to the fire and ended Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management company.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Commerce “asked” US companies to stop shipping goods to more than 600 new foreign parties, based on evidence those entities have been redirecting the shipments to Russia.  Those components have been found inside Russian munitions, machinery (“tank sights”, drone control circuits, data link encryption, etc.) on the battlefield in Ukraine.  Later, the TX Attorney General announced he has launched an investigation into BA and their main supplier SPR.  Also in TX, a federal judge (often sought out by conservatives who are “judge shopping”) threw a surprise into the case over whether the CFPB agency has the right to regulate card fees.  He did this by chiding the plaintiffs and transferring the case to a Washington DC court since no plaintiff lived in his court’s Fort Worth district, all the lawyers from both sides, and the agency being sued all reside in DC.

On Friday, AMZN announced it will spend $150 billion over the next 15 years on new and upgraded data centers to bolster its cloud services.  (AMZN hold more than twice the market share of MSFT, who is number two in the cloud computing market.)  Later, T announced Saturday that it is investigating an “incident” two weeks ago that has led to more than 65 million of its customer records being published on the dark web.  T reset the passwords of 7.6 million current users, but in addition, the private information (name, address ,phone number, date of birth, and social security number) of all 65 million has been disclosed.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes March S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), Feb. Construction Spending, March ISM Mfg. Employment, March ISM Mfg. PMI, and March ISM Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, the major reports scheduled after the close are limited to PVH.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Feb. Factory Orders, Feb. JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Fed speakers Mester and Daly.  Then Wednesday, March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, March S&P Global Services PMI, March S&P Global Composite PMI, March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA, and Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PAYX, CALM, and PLAY report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AYI, BB, and LEVI.  On Thursday, CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the UK government backed the idea of them following the US in its move from a T+2 trade settlement timing to T+1 as the US, Canada, and Mexico will move to starting in May.  (China, India and 55% of global markets already settle using T+1 timing or will do so by the end of the year.)  The UK move puts immense pressure on the EU to follow suit.  On Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. announced that the national average cost of a 30-year, fixed-rate loan fell to 6.79% last week (down from 6.87% the week prior).  Overseas, Chinese tech firm Huawei announced its net profits doubled in 2023, despite US sanctions.  The company saw a 9.6% year-on-year revenue increase and a 145% increase in net profit to $12.3 billion.  (Much of the increase came from their hit “Mate 60” smartphone that caused a 47% increase in phone sales in China in Q4…mostly at AAPL’s expense.)

In federal regulation news, a federal judge in TX (Judge shopped for the filing) struck down the Dept. of Transportation rules calling for states to measure, monitor, set declining goals, and mitigation plans toward those goals relate to greenhouse gas emissions.  Elsewhere, in a joint project, NASA and the EPA analyzed US landfills.  The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that landfill release was the third-largest source of release of Methane (a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2).  The study labeled 52% of US landfills as “super-emitters” which means they emit more than 100lbs of methane/hour, 24 hours a day, year after year.

With that background, I’m sorry but I feel like death. I did not want to not post the blog but knew I would not be up for it this morning. So, this is posted Sunday evening. Check the premarkets for yourself. However, none of the three major index ETFs are too extended but the T2122 is still well into the overbought territory. Also, don’t forget to put an eye on the 10 big dog tickers. They will point the way for the rest of the market, at least early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service