The morning was a Bear trap on Wednesday.  SPY gapped down 0.19%, DIA opened just on the green side of flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.50%.  From there, all three major index ETFs continued to sell, reaching the lows of the day just after 10 a.m.  However, that was it for the Bears.  From that point, all three rallied until 11:10 a.m.  At that point, DIA continued higher at the same pace while SPY drifted higher and QQQ meandered sideways.  Finally, all three rallied the last 10 minutes of the day, going out very near their highs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with lower wicks in all three.  They all closed above their T-line after gapping down below that level at their open. This happened on well-below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+1.56%) well out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, the Consumer Cyclical (-0.47%) was the laggard and only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA gained 0.71%, and QQQ gained 0.45%.  Meanwhile VXX lost 2.04% to close at 42.80 while T2122 gained a little to climb back inside the edge of overbought territory, closing at 81.91.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to close at 4.426% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.13%, closing at $71.15 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a bit of a Bear trap with a move lower, followed by a sharp reversal and the Bulls not giving up the momentum the rest of the day. 

The major economic news on Wednesday included the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in much stronger than expected at +183k (compared to a +148k forecast, but not much above December’s +176k reading).  At the same time, Dec. Exports were down to $266.50 billion (versus November’s $273.4 billion value).  On the incoming side, Dec. Imports were up to $364.90 billion (compared to November’s $351.60 billion number). Together, this gave us a Dec. Trade Balance of -$98.40 billion (which was slightly above the -$96.50 billion forecast and well above November’s -$78.90 billion value).  Later, S&P Global Services PMI was down to 52.7 (better than the 52.4 forecast but down from December’s 55.4 reading).  This gave us a S&P Global Composite PMI of 52.9 (versus a 52.8 forecast but down from December’s 56.8 value).  Later, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was low at 52.8 (compared to a 54.2 forecast and December’s 54.0 reading).  This came on an ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index that was up to 52.3 (from December’s 51.3 number).  On the cost side, the ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were well down to 60.4 (versus the 64.4 December reading).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a MUCH larger-than-expected 8.664-million-barrel inventory build (compared to a 2.400-million-barrel forecasted increase and the prior week’s 3.463-million-barrel increase).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs. He said, “We now face a series of new challenges to the supply chain – natural and man-made disasters from fires and hurricanes to collisions with bridges that take out major ports, canal cloggings and threats of dockworker walkouts; geopolitical disruptions; immigration; and, of course, the threat of large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.”  He continued, “If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs.”  He went on, “If in 2018 companies shifted all the easiest things out of China, then what’s left might be the least substitutable goods… In that case, the impact on inflation might be much larger this time.”  Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin also talked about the uncertainty brought by Trump tariff policy and flip-flopping.  He said, “it remains impossible at this early stage to know where cost increases from any tariffs might be absorbed or passed along to consumers.”

After the close, ARM, CENT, CTSH, COHR, ENSG, NVST, F, HI, KMPR, NWSA, ORLY, PTC, QCOM, SNEX, TTMI, and WEX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AFL, CTVA, QGEN, and UHAL all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, ALL, ASGN, CPAY, CCK, DLX, ENS, GL, HOLX, MUSA, SWKS, STE, UGI, and WFRD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ALGN, AVB, BV, PLUS, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, CNXN, RRX, and SYM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. Shenzhen (+2.26%), Shanghai (+1,27%), Australia (+1.23%), and South Korea (+1.10%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday. The CAC (+0.88%), DAX (+0.90%), and FTSE (+1.52%) are leading that region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are up to 4.444% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $71.51 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), as well as Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We hear from Fed members Waller (2:30 p.m.) and Daly (3:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, and ZBH. Then after the close, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, AGCO, AB, APTV, BCE, BDC, OWL, BMY, COP, CRARY, LLY, EMBC, ENTG, HSY, HLT, HON, IQV, LH, LEA, LNC, MMS, RITM, SNA, TPR, TEX, TRI, UA, UAA, WMG, XPO, YUM, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WMS, AZN, CIGI, and PTON beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, AMG, APD, MT, BWA, CMS, DAR, ITT, KVUE, LIN, NVT, PM, SPB, and YUMC all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  However, HII and XEL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is undecided so far this morning.  All three major index ETFs are little moved from Wednesday’s close and have printed small-body, indecisive candles in the premarket.  All three are above their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend is bullish.  The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close to their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 sits just inside of its overbought territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum, but the Bears may have just a little more slack to work with today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, they are evenly split with five red and five green.  NVDA (+1.14%) is way out front of the gainers while TSLA (-1.69%) is far ahead of the losers.  As far as liquidity goes, it is a modestly liquid early session with TSLA leading with NVDA about 20% behind and the next closes ticker having traded six times less dollar-volume NVDA.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw the markets start the day flat.  SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened up 0.07%. From there, SPY and QQQ rallied (QQQ’s rally being sharp).  However, after that rally, those two chopped sideways all the way into the close.  For its part, after the open, DIA sold off for 20 minutes before beginning a much slower rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three.  DIA printed a white, small-wick, Spinning Top candle that crossed back above its T-line.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ printed large-body, white candles with tiny upper wicks that also crossed back above their T-lines as well.  Both SPY and QQQ also crossed back above their 50sma.  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.90%) well out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, the Utilities (-0.62%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.39%) sectors were the only ones in the red. At the same time, SPY gained 0.67%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ gained 1.23%. (QQQ was led by AMD’s +4.58% gain.) Meanwhile VXX lost 3.06% to close at 43.69 while T2122 spiked all the way back up to just outside the edge of its overbought territory, closing at 79.37. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to close at 4.513% and Oil (WTI) was flat, closing down a penny at $72.75 per barrel.  So, Tuesday seemed to be a calming after the reaction and re-reaction to the Trump tariffs and then pushback of same. 

The major economic news on Tuesday were limited to December Month-on-Month Factory Orders which were lower than expected at -0.9% (compared to a forecast of -0.7% and November’s -0.8% reading).  At the same time, Dec. JOLTs Job Openings were also much lower than expected at 7.600 million (versus an 8.010 million forecast and November’s 8.156 million value).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Stocks Report showed a larger-than-expected inventory build of 5.025 million barrels (compared to a +3.170-million-barrel forecast and the prior week’s 2.860-million-barrel number).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told an audience that since the FOMC has already slashed rates one percent and there was much greater economic uncertainty given the new administration’s volatile policies, there is no hurry to make any change to rates.  Bostic specifically mentioned the ambiguous impact of US tariffs and potential retaliatory tariffs abroad.  The bottom line of Bostic’s presentation was that the economy is now much more uncertain and will likely remain this way for quite a while.  Therefore, the Fed must sit on its hands and wait to see how things shake out.  Later, San Francisco Fed President Daly echoed Bostic’s point.  She commented, “Growth is solid, the labor market is solid, and inflation is coming down, albeit gradually, but we’re heading toward our 2% target.”  However, noting the uncertainty from the new administration, she continued, “In my time at the Fed, I’ve lived through a financial crisis and a pandemic, and those were extraordinarily uncertain times. Uncertainty is not a paralysis. It just means we have to watch and be careful and thoughtful as we navigate the information we have.”  She went on to say, “The way we have to think about it (Trump’s immigration and tariff policies) as policy makers is to [focus on the] net effect of all of those, and we don’t know what it is yet.” She concluded that the Fed can’t be proactive given the volatility and uncertainty of Trump’s policy proposals.  She said, “If you take preemptive action…you can end up making a policy mistake.”

After the close, AMD, ALGT, GOOGL, AMGN, CRUS, GOOG, LUMN, MOD, NOV, SPG, SKY, SNAP, and VOYA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOX, AFG, COLM, MTCH, and WU beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, ATO, CMG, DXC, ENVA, FMC, THG, JKHY, JNPR, MAT, OI, and OMC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CSL, EA, MDLZ, OSCR, PRU, and UNM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six gaining exchanges and six losing ones.  Taiwan (+1.61%), and South Korea (+1.11%) were way ahead leading the gainers while Thailand (-1.10%) and Hong Kong (-0.93% paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar mixed picture taking shape on modest moves at midday.  The CAC (-0.19%), DAX (-0.05%), and FTSE (+0.08%) lead the region in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are down to 4.466% and Oil (WTI) is off one percent to $71.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Dec. Exports, Dec. Imports, and Dec. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Services PMI and S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bowman at 3 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCC, ARES, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, EMR, EQNR, EVR, FSV, FI, GSK, GFF, HOG, IEX, ITW, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SR, SWK, TROW, TKR, TM, UBER, VSH, and DIS.  Then after the close, AFL, ALGN, ALL, ARM, ASGN, AVB, EQH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, DLX, ENS, ENSG, NVST, PLUS, F, GL, HI, HOLX, ITUB, KMPR, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, MUSA, NWSA, ORLY, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RRX, SWKS, STE, SNEX, SU, TTMI, UHAL, UGI, VLTO, WFRD, and WEX report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed members Waller and Daly.  Finally, Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Thursday, we hear from WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, ZBH, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN.  Finally, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, BSX, CDW, CMRE, COR, CRTO, EVR, FI, GSK, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, REYN, RXO, SWK, TKR, TTE, TM, and UBER all reported beat on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ARES, BG, CPRI, HOG, and PFGC beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, EMR, KMT, and DIS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ARCC, EQNR, SR, TROW, and VSH missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is modestly bearish this morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped down a little to start the premarket.  Since that point, they have printed indecisive (mostly wick) candles.  SPY and QQQ are back below their T-line (8ema) while DIA is retesting that level in the early session.  As a result, the short-term trend is bearish.  The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close to their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is just outside of its overbought territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum, but the Bears may have a little more slack to work with today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red with AMD (-9.81%) out in front leading the pack lower.  (Although AMD beat last night, it is being punished for lower-than-expected server revenue.)  On the other side, NVDA (+0.94%) is holding up better than the others and is the only Big Dog in the green.  As far as liquidity goes, it is a low-volume premarket but NVDA leads, followed by AMD with TSLA (-0.94%) not far behind.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The market was volatile Monday, seemingly over-reacting to Trump’s tariffs and then bouncing hard (perhaps in an over-reaction to Trump calls with Mexico and Canada and pushing back Mexican tariffs a month).  SPY gapped down 1.51%, DIA gapped down 1.28%, and QQQ gapped down 1.76%.  All three major index ETFs did a momentary bound and then followed through to the downside, reaching the lows of the day at 10:20a.m.  At that point, all three spiked hard to the upside for about 20-25 minutes before starting a sideways chop with a slight bullish trend.  That slight bullish trend lasted until 3 p.m. when we saw a modest selloff across SPY, DIA, and QQQ the last hour.  This action gave us huge gap-down white-body candles with significant wicks on both ends of the candles.  All three gapped below their T-line (8ema) with only DIA retesting from below and failing its retest.  SPY and QQQ also gapped down below their 50sma, retested from below and closed just above and below that level respectively.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.29%), Industrials (-1.23%), and Technology (-1.18%) out front leading the market lower. On the other side, Communications Services (+0.46%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.67%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.80%. Meanwhile VXX gained another 2.15% to close at 45.07 while T2122 dropped all the way back into the top of its oversold range to close at 18.52.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields closed at 4.563% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.32% to close at $72.76 per barrel.  So, Monday was all about market reaction to Trump’s tariffs and then talks and pushing them off temporarily. This all happened on above-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI came in higher than expected at 51.2 (compared to a 50.1 forecast and a December 49.4 reading).  A few minutes later, Dec. Construction Spending also came in stronger than predicted at +0.5% (versus a +0.3% forecast and November’s +0.2%).  At the same time, ISM Mfg. PMI was strong at 50.9 (compared to a 49.3 forecast and the December 49.2 value).  On jobs, ISM Mfg. Employment were up strongly to 50.3 (versus a 47.8 forecast and a 45.4 December reading).  In terms of prices, the ISM Mfg. Price Index were also up to 54.9 (compared to a 52.6 forecast and December’s 52.5 value).

In Fed news, on Monday Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the FOMC may need to wait “for a while” on any further rate cuts as the new Administration’s policies make the economic outlook much less certain.  Bostic said, “I want to be cautious and I don’t want to have our policy lean in one direction based on an assumption the economy is going to evolve a certain way, then have to turn it around.”  He also cited waiting on seeing what impact 2024’s (one percent) cut will have, saying, “I want to see what the reduction that we did at the end of last year translates to in terms of the economy, and it could—depending on what the data are—mean that we are waiting for a while.”  Elsewhere, Boston Fed President Collins told CNBC, “The kind of broad-based tariffs that were announced over the weekend, one would expect to have an impact on prices … with broad-based tariffs, you actually would not only see increases in prices of final goods, but also a number of intermediate goods.”  However, she went on to point out that there isn’t a lot of experience with broad-based tariffs in the modern economy (because administrations from both parties have realized they don’t work and are both a tax on US citizens and inflationary for at least 85 years).  Both emphasized with the unpredictable and unstable policy approach of the Trump administration, the extent of the inflationary impact is unknowable until we learn how tariff implementation, US competitor pricing response, and counter-tariff responses play out.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, CLX, EQR, FN, NXPI, PLTR, and DOC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, KD and WWD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CBT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with half the exchanges green and half red. Hong Kong (+2.83%) and India (+1.62%) paced the gains while Shenzhen (-1.33%) was by far the biggest loser.  In Europe, we a similar picture taking shape at midday but slightly more of the bourses lean toward the red side.  The CAC (+0.22%), DAX (-0.04%, and FTSE (-0.12%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat open after Trump back-tracked on tariffs for both Mexico and Canada and announced he will hold a similar call with China’s President Xi.  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a +0.21% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up to 4.577% and Oil (WTI) has dropped 2.17% to $71.57 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to Dec. Factory Orders and Dec. JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.), and the API Weekly Crude Stocks Report (4:30 p.m.) and we hear from Fed members Bostic (11 a.m.) and Daly (1:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMCR, AME, APO, ARMK, ADM, ATI, ATKR, AXTA, BALL, BERY, CNC, CNH, CMI, ENR, EPD, EL, RACE, FOXA, IT, GPK, HUBB. INGR, J, KKR, LANC, MPC, MRK, MPLX, PYPL, PNR, PEP, PFE, REGN, SPOT, TDG, UBS, WEC, WTW, and XYL.  Then after the close, AMD, ALGT, GOOGL, DOX, AFG, AMGN, ATO, CSL, CRUS, COLM, DXC, EA, ENVA, FMC, GOOG, THG, JKHY, JNPR, LUMN, MTCH, MAT, MOD, MDLZ, NOV, OI, OMC, OSCR, PRU, SPG, SKY, SNAP, UNM, and WU report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Dec. Exports, Dec. Imports, Dec. Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and we hear from Fed member Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed members Waller and Daly.  Finally, Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Wednesday, ARCC, ARES, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, EMR, EQNR, EVR, FSV, FI, GSK, GFF, HOG, IEX, ITW, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SR, SWK, TROW, TKR, TM, UBER, VSH, DIS, AFL, ALGN, ALL, ARM, ASGN, AVB, EQH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, DLX, ENS, ENSG, NVST, PLUS, F, GL, HI, HOLX, ITUB, KMPR, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, MUSA, NWSA, ORLY, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RRX, SWKS, STE, SNEX, SU, TTMI, UHAL, UGI, VLTO, WFRD, and WEX report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, ZBH, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN.  Finally, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, APO, AXTA, CNC, ENR, EL, IT, INGR, J, KKR, MPC, MRK, PYPL, PNR, PFE, PJT, REGN, TDG, UBS, and XYL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AMCR, AME, ARMK, ATKR, BALL, EPD, MPLX, PEP, and WTW all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, SPOT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CNH, GPK, and WEC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is rethinking the tariff selloff and rebound. All three major index ETFs are more flat this morning, printing smaller premarket candles and reversing their initial early session move. DIA is just below and looking to retest its T-line while QQQ did retest and then backed off.  As a result, all three remain below their 8ema.  So, the short-term trend remains bearish.  The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close below their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is just inside of its oversold territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum, but the Bulls may have a little more slack to work with today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green with AMA (+1.38%) out in front leading the pack higher.  On the other side, AAPL (-0.42%) is the laggard and only one of the 10 in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, TSLA (+0.44%) and NVDA (+0.38%) are neck-and-neck and both have traded about 4.5 times as much as the next most liquid ticker.  However, take note that it is a very light premarket volume overall.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw a gap higher, some midday divergence, a sideways grind and then a Trump Tariff selloff.  SPY afternoon gapped up 0.41%, DIA gapped up 0.30%, and QQQ gapped up 0.71%. At that point, both SPY and QQQ continued to rally until 11:15 a.m.  From there, both ground sideways in a tight range until 1 p.m.  However, then Trump’s Whitehouse announced major tariffs will kick in against Canada, Mexico, and to a lesser extend China on Saturday.  This caused the sharpest move of the day, which was a selloff that lasted into the close.  Meanwhile, after its gap higher, DIA faded its gap immediately before grinding sideways in a very tight range along the previous close until 1p.m.  Unfortunately, just like the other major index ETF.s the Trump tariff news drove a strong selloff the last three hours of the day.  This action gave us large black-body candles in all three.  SPY and QQQ had significant upper wicks, but all three closed near their lows.  SPY was the only one of the three to (barely) cross below its T-line (8ema) although the other two are close above that level.  SPY and DIA both printed Bearish Engulfing candles.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.26%) way out front, by more than a percent, leading the market lower. On the other side, Technology (-0.11%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.53%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ lost 0.15%. Meanwhile VXX gained 3.37% to close at 44.12 while T2122 dropped all the way back to just below its centerline to close at 43.86.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields rose to 4.549% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.02% to close at $73.46 per barrel.  So, Friday was literally an up-sideways-and-the-down day for the market. The only thing that seems certain is that the market doesn’t like the uncertainty caused by Trump’s protectionist approach to trade (high tariffs).  This all happened on average volume in DIA and above-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

The major economic news on Friday included the Month-on-Month December Core PCE Price Index, which came in as expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast but up a tick from November’s +0.1% value).  On an annualized basis, the Year-on-Year December Core PCE Price Index was flat at +2.8% (versus a +2.8% forecast and November reading).  For the headline number, the Month-on-Month December PCE Price Index was up as predicted to +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but up from November’s +0.1% number).  Annualized, the Year-on-Year December PCE Price Index was also up as anticipated at +2.6% (versus a +2.6% forecast and November +2.4% value).  Meanwhile, Month-on-Month December Personal Spending was up to +0.7% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and the November +0.6% reading).  At the same time, the Q4 Employment Cost Index showed an increase to +0.9% (in-line with the +0.9% forecast but up a tick from Q3’s +0.8% number).  Later, Chicago PMI was a bit lower than expected at 39.5 (compared to the 40.3 forecast but up from December’s 36.9 value).

In Fed news, on Friday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC the PCE data released was “a bit better than he expected” and it “gives him comfort that inflation is on a path to the 2% target.”  However, he went on to say that he is worried about Trump’s tariffs, saying “there is a question mark that is coming from policy uncertainty.”  Goolsbee went on to clarify “If it affects prices, it affects us … our signal is getting a little muddied, when things (like tariffs) are happening that drive up prices. … we’re going to have to figure out which part of the inflation is the part that monetary policy should look through and which part is a sign of the economy.”

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board on fears over Trump’s new trade war.  Taiwan (-3.53%), Japan (-2.66%), and South Korea (-2.52%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see exactly the same picture taking shape with all 14 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (-1.62%), DAX (-1.68%), and FTSE (-1.29%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower to start Monday. The DIA implies a -1.36% open, the SPY is implying a -1.52% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.72% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.506% and Oil (WTI) has spiked 2.62% to $74.43 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), Dec. Construction Spending, ISM Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. Employment, and ISM Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.).  We also head from Fed member Bostic (12:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARLP, IDXX, LVRO, SAIA, and TSN.  Then after the close, BRBR, CBT, CLX, EQR, EG, FN, KD, NXPI, PLTR, DOC, and WWD report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Dec. Factory Orders, Dec. JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Stocks report and we hear from Fed members Bostic and Daly.  Then Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Dec. Exports, Dec. Imports, Dec. Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and we hear from Fed member Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed members Waller and Daly.  Finally, Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AMCR, AME, APO, ARMK, ADM, ATI, ATKR, AXTA, BALL, BERY, CNC, CNH, CMI, ENR, EPD, EL, RACE, FOXA, IT, GPK, HUBB. INGR, J, KKR, LANC, MPC, MRK, MPLX, PYPL, PNR, PEP, PFE, REGN, SPOT, TDG, UBS, WEC, WTW, XYL, AMD, ALGT, GOOGL, DOX, AFG, AMGN, ATO, CSL, CRUS, COLM, DXC, EA, ENVA, FMC, GOOG, THG, JKHY, JNPR, LUMN, MTCH, MAT, MOD, MDLZ, NOV, OI, OMC, OSCR, PRU, SPG, SKY, SNAP, UNM, and WU.  Then Wednesday, ARCC, ARES, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, EMR, EQNR, EVR, FSV, FI, GSK, GFF, HOG, IEX, ITW, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SR, SWK, TROW, TKR, TM, UBER, VSH, DIS, AFL, ALGN, ALL, ARM, ASGN, AVB, EQH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, DLX, ENS, ENSG, NVST, PLUS, F, GL, HI, HOLX, ITUB, KMPR, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, MUSA, NWSA, ORLY, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RRX, SWKS, STE, SNEX, SU, TTMI, UHAL, UGI, VLTO, WFRD, and WEX report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, ZBH, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN.  Finally, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, IDXX SAIA, and TSN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, ARLP missed on both the top and bottom lines.  

With that background, it looks like the Trump tariff tumble is on in the market.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket with a significant gap lower.  From there, all three have printed large black-body candles with only QQQ even attempting a move higher.  As a result, all three are well below their T-line (8ema) with SPY and QQQ even a bit stretched below that level.  So, the short-term trend is bearish.  The mid-term downtrend remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, SPY and QQQ are stretched below the T-line and DIA is headed that direction.  Meanwhile, T2122 is just below its mid-point.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  However, the Bears have are already showing momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in the red with NVDA (-4.17%) out in front leading the pack lower.  On the other side, NFLX (-1.20%) is holding up best among that group. As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads there too followed closely by TSLA, which has traded six times as much as the next closest Big Dog. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a little divergence at the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.36%, DIA opened 0.14% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.57%. From that point, SPY and QQQ bounced back-and-forth across their gaps all day while DIS spent the day copping sideways above its opening gap.  The most notable move was a 15-minute hard selloff at 3:30 p.m., which was met by a lesser 15-minute rebound rally to end the day.  (That was a market-wide reaction to President Trump again threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico.)  This action gave us long-legged Doji-type candles in SPY and QQQ as well as a Bullish Engulfing candle with upper wick in the DIA.  Once again, this all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.41%) way out front leading the gainers.  On the other side, Communications Services (-2.02%) was the only red sector and lagged all other sectors by 2.87%.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.54%, DIA gained 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.43%. Meanwhile VXX fell slightly again to close at 42.68 while T2122 popped back up into its overbought territory to close at 89.47.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to 4.524% and Oil (WTI) gained seven-tenths of a percent to t $73.14 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw markets shake off lower-than-expected Q4 GDP (perhaps because Q4 GDP Price Index was also lower than expected). 

The major economic news on Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in below expectations at 207k (compared to a 224k forecast and the prior week’s 223k reading).  For the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down to 1,858k (versus a 1,890k forecast and the prior week’s 1,900k value).  At the same time, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices were reported as predicted at 2.50% (compared toa 2.50% forecast and up sharply from Q3’s 2.20% reading).  Meanwhile, Preliminary Q4 GDP was down sharply to 2.3% (versus a 2.7% forecast and the 3.1% Q3 reading).  On the price side, the Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index was also lower than anticipated at 2.2% (versus a 2.5% forecast but up from Q3’s 1.9% value).  Later, December Pending Home Sales were down SHARPLY at -5.5% (compared to a forecast of being flat and November’s +1.6%).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a decline of $14 billion for the week, falling to $6.818 trillion.

After the close, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, TBBK, BOOT, CACC, DECK, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, RMD, SKYW, X, and V all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EMN and WY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CNI, PFSI, and PPG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, although China remained closed for Lunar New Year.  India (+1.11%) led the gainers while South Korea (-0.77%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape with 12 of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.68%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTSE (+0.35%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move higher to start the morning (ahead of data).  The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.47% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.79% open at this hour.  At the same time, 110-Year Bond Yields are back up to 4.527% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $72.63 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, and December Personal Spending, and Q4 Employment Cost Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW.  Then after the close, there are no reports scheduled. 

So far this morning, ABBV, ARCB, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEP, CHTR, CHD, NVS, OMF, and PSX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AON, ALV, CL, ETN, XOM, LYB, RVTY, and VSTS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CVX beat on revenue but missed on earnings.    

With that background, markets look bullish ahead of the PCE data.  All three major index ETFs gapped higher to open the premarket and all three have printed white-body candles since that point.  With that said, all three are above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is bullish.  The mid-term downtrend remains a mess with only DIA showing a definitive trend (bullish).  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended but DIA is starting to get to that point.  Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the middle of its overbought territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  However, the Bears have a little more material to work with Friday.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green again with AAPL (+4.05%) way out in front leading the gains.  On the other side, NVDA (-1.31%) lags far behind the other big dogs.  As far as liquidity goes NVDA leads the way, having traded almost 1.5 times more than AAPL on a VERY low dollar-volume premarket session.  Do not forget it is Friday and month-end.  So, prepare your account for the weekend and remember to pay yourself.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened basically flat Wednesday.  SPY opened 0.14%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened up 0.10%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for 30 minutes after the Fed rate decision, rallied for 30 minutes and then restarted its sideways chop, which continued into the close.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in all three. SPY and DIA printed black-bodied Spinning Top candles.  SPY closed just pennies above its T-line (8ema) after a retest from above. For its part, QQQ printed a black Hammer candle that retested the T-line from below and failed that test while still closing in the top part of its candle.  This all happened on below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, five of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Healthcare (-0.59%) out in front of the losers while Communications Services (+0.49%) paced the five gainers.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.45%, DIA lost 0.27%, and QQQ lost 0.19%. Meanwhile VXX fell slightly to close at 42.91 while T2122 dropped further back into the top of the mid-range to close at 61.68.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields stayed flat at 4.538% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.15%, closing at $72.92 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday we saw a long wait for the Fed, a knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC decision and then more drift sideways.  It remains unclear whether traders are waiting on earnings, GDP, or the PCE inflation data…or maybe even the fallout from Trump’s policies. Still, it certainly feels like traders are waiting on something.

The major economic news on Wednesday included the Preliminary December Goods Trade Balance, which came worse than expected at -$122.11 billion (compared to a -$105.60 billion forecast and November’s -$103.50 billion value).  At the same time, Preliminary December Retail Inventories were down to +0.2% (versus November’s +0.4% reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger inventory build than predicted at +3.463 million barrels (compared to a +2.200-million-barrel forecast and the previous week’s 1.017-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, as had been expected by 99.5% of Fed Fund Futures traders, the FOMC held rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50% despite President Trump’s demand last week that interest rates “be lowered immediately.”  The FOMC statement added a slightly more optimistic view of the labor market, but removed its mention that progress had been made on inflation.  The statement said, “The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid,” and added “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”  Later, during his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said, “I would say we’re (Fed Funds rates are) meaningfully above it [neutral].” He continued, “(However,) I have no illusion that anyone knows precisely how much (above) that is but having cut 100 basis points means that it’s appropriate that we not be in a hurry to make further adjustments.”

After the close, AMP, NLY, BHE, CLS, FIBK, LRCX, LEVI, MTH, META, MSFT, RJF, TER, TTEK, and WDC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AXS, CHRW, CP, CCS, IBM, LBRT, NFG, NOW, and WHR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, LSTR, SEIC, and URI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CMPR, LVS, RHI, SIGI, and TSLA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest trading. South Korea (+0.85%) led the region’s gainers while Thailand (-0.56%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are also mostly green (with two exceptions out of the 14) at midday.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.23%), and FTSE (+0.47%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:50 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the say.  The DIA implies a -0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.494% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $72.59 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices, Preliminary Q4 GDP, and Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), December Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FLWS, AOS, MO, ABG, AVY, BBVA, BX, BFH, BC, CAH, CRS, CAT, CHKP, CI, CMCSA, CFR, DOV, DOW, IP, KEX, LHX, LAZ, MAN, MMC, MA, MBLY, MUR, NOK, NOC, OSK, PH, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SNY, SCSC, SNDR, SHW, SIRI, LUV, STM, TMO, TSCO, TT, UPS, and VLO. Then after the close, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, BOOT, CNI, CACC, DECK, EMN, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PFSI, PPG, RMD, SKYW, X, V, and WY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, December Personal Spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW report.

So far this morning, MO, ABG, BFH, BIP, BC, CAH, CHKP, CMCSA, FLG, LHX, LAZ, MMC, MBLY, NOK, OSK, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SIRI, STM, TMO, TT, and VLO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AVY, CAT, DOV, FCFS, IP, KEX, MAN, NOC, PH, SHW, and LUV missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CI, SNY, and SXC beat on earnings while missing on revenue.  However, FLWS, AOS, DOW, MUR, SHEL, and TSCO missed on both the top and bottom lines.  

With that background, markets look undecided again this morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped higher to open the premarket.  However, since that point all three have traded down to print black-bodied candles.  Only QQQ has come up significantly off its premarket lows.  With that said, all three are back above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is on the bullish side again.  The mid-term downtrend is now a mess and can best be described as broad-range chop.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the middle of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green again with TSLA (+3.70%) well out front leading the gains.  On the other side, MSFT (-4.09%) is almost 4% worse off than the other three red big dogs.  As far as liquidity goes TSLA leads the way, having traded almost 1.5 times more than NVDA (-0.24%) with META (+1.68%) not far behind.  However, note that it is a low-volume premarket today. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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