Using the TOS Theo Price Tool
In this video I go over how I use the ThinkorSwim Theo Price to calculate option priced stop losses and profit targets. Keep in mind I highly recommend you study the videos in platforms learning center!
Big one-day increase.
One of the biggest one-day increase in oil prices in 30 years but the overall market seemed to take the blow in stride only losing about half of one percent on the day. Rising domestic production decreasing our dependence on foreign crude likely played a significant role in the muted market reaction. Another might be the no-rush response to retaliation of those responsible for the attack. Last but not least is the hopefulness that the FOMC will lower interest rates on Wednesday afternoon. The question rattling around in my head is what happens if the FOMC disappoints due to the rather strong US economic data?
The rising geopolitical concerns and rising energy prices led to Asian markets closed mixed with the Hong Kong exchange suffering the biggest decline. Across the pond European are also cautious this morning trading mixed but modestly lower overall. With the FOMC kicking of their 2-day meeting today and ahead of Industrial Production number the US Futures points to a modestly lower open and what could be another very choppy price action day as we wait for the Fed decision.
On the Calendar
We have 22 companies stepping up to report today according to the Earnings Calendar. Notable reports include FDX, CHWY, ADBE, & CBRL.
Action Plan
Although the oil made it’s biggest one day spike in nearly 30 years, the overall market barely flinched only falling about half a percent overall. While evidence mounts that the oil field attacks came from Iran, the President is exercising patience on retaliation as investigations continue. With US energy production so high nowadays we have decreased dependence on Saudi oil, but the other factor for a muted market reaction is the pending FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon. Although fed fund futures have recently decreased the odds of a rate cut slightly but as of yesterday, the probability remains at 26% of an FOMC accommodation.
Ahead of the open US Futures are pointing to a modest decline as the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting. We have Industrial Production numbers at 9:15 and Housing Market Index reports on the economic calendar and after the bell earings from FDX and ADBE that could move the market. Although there could be a news-driven event that creates some price volatility, I’m largely expected a light and choppy day as the market waits on the Fed decision.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Uneventful Monday: Tuesday?
✅ At hit and Run Candlesticks, we focus on Stocks / Simple Directional Options
The market (SPY), For the most part, a very uneventful day yesterday, the market didn’t seem to care about 5% of the world oil being blown up. Perhaps the market will be more interested in the possible .25 point cut. The close yesterday like previous 12 days were all above the T-Line, we call that a T-Line Run. A close below the T-Line, the sellers, could take us to about $297.00, a bit more and the 50-SMA become vulnerable. Currently, the Bulls still outnumber the Bears; you can see this because of the trend and price action is still above the trends and moving averages. The T2122 chart is running high in the overbought area and has failed to make a higher high compared to the last three runs. (Looking at a 3-day chart)
✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈
J-Hook Continuation Pattern While there are several continuation patterns in trading, the J-Hook Continuation Pattern is one that is a very decisive and can be easily identified since it forms the letter J. If the chart pattern is followed, entered at the right time and unfolds as expected, it can be very profitable. J-Hooks may also be called by other names like Thunderbolts and 123 formations.
There are three necessary parts to the pattern 1) a strong upward move in price 2) a pullback and 3) an up move which should continue into a breakout above the previous pivot high in price to complete the pattern and continue the uptrend. Figure 1 presents the three price movements that take place as a J-Hook develops.
TheThe I path Series S&P 500 VXX Short Term Futures ETN. The VXX closed below the T-Line (bearish), closed with a Doji on the 2-day chart. The VXX is also near support. Always trade with caution.
Trade-Ideas
For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. XON, FTCH, CIEN, WWE, ALKS, LMT, CLDR, GWRE, BKI, MASI, V, TRI, BURLTrade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
😊 Have a great trading day – Rick
✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Crude Prices Rise
Crude prices rise sharply after Iranian attacks on Saudi oil fields forced the shut down of nearly 50% of their daily production. The President has authorized the opening of the US Strategic supplies in response. The UAW has officially placed 48,000 General Motors on strike, but negotiations are set to resume this week. What a difference a weekend can make! With the market hopeful of FOMC rate decision and forecasts on Wednesday afternoon and the weekend disruptions, we should prepare a bit more price volatility in the days ahead.
Overnight Asian markets closed mostly lower as higher oil prices could pressure and the already challenged Chinese economy. European markets are seeing red across the board in reaction to oil prices and the obvious geopolitical tensions it’s likely to occur. US Futures had bounced slightly off of overnight lows pointing to a gap down open. One has to wonder what comes next as a response to the attack on world energy supplies?
On the Calendar
Although were nearing the end of the quarter we still have stragglers yet to report. Today we have 21 companies expected to report but is see none that are particularly notable.
Action Plan
Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields wiped out 5% of the global supply and forced the shutdown of nearly 50% of their daily production. Not surprisingly crude price rose sharply as futures markets reopened. What’s more, unsettling is what comes next? Disrupt the supply of energy, and a significant military response is not likely far behind. Aerospace and Defense sector stocks may join in the rally with oil prices. Tuesday begins the 2-day FOMO meeting with their announcement on rates and forecasts at 2:00 PM Eastern Wednesday.
Typically the market tends to chop with lighter than normal volume ahead of an FOMC announcement but, normal may be difficult to achieve today with the new uncertainty of energy. US Futures have improved from overnight lows but continue to point lower this morning with the Dow expected to gap down about 100 points. Keep in mind the 8-day rally has put the indexes in a short-term overbought condition with 50-moving average support significantly lower so we should not rule out the possibility of a test. However the hopefulness of lowered interest rates could inspire the bull to hold firm.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Oil Event Causes Ripple
✅ At hit and Run Candlesticks, we focus on Stocks / Simple Directional Options
The market (SPY), Yesterday was a tremendous money-making day in the market, all thanks to the LTA Scanner and a few critical indicators on our charts. The SPY is on a beautiful T-Line Run, and it will last until it doesn’t, watch price action. Price action over the past ten days has gone from below the T-Bands to above the T-Bands, a bullish move for the buyers. Let’s keep our eyes on the $302.23 high and the price staying above the T-Line. Any changes we will post an update.
✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈
Bullish Cup
and Handle Pattern: The
“cup and handle formation” is a bullish signal pointing to a continuation of
the current trend. It may extend over several weeks or even months and contains
specific attributes.
As with any continuation pattern, you rely on confirmation in
one form or another. This may occur as a second technical price signal, a
candlestick continuation, volume spike, or change in momentum.
There are several parts to the cup and handle. First is the
cup, which is a rounded bottom extending over time. As the shape of the cup is
completed, expect the handle to emerge. This is a swing trade in the opposite
direction, characterized by a specific channel between resistance and support,
forming as a pennant or similar channel movement and, quite often, separated
from the “cup” with an upside
gap. As the handle declines and concludes, price reverses, moving again to the
upside and setting up as a breakout from previous resistance. Read More
The I path Series S&P 500 VXX Short Term Futures ETN. The VXX is looking at a bounce today with the oil situation. The VXX is already in a 13-Min premarket (RBB) Pattern. Above @23.60 the VXX could get to the 34-EMA and the 5-SMA on the daily chart.
Trade-Ideas
For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. PGC, NVAX, XEC, AXSM, WB, MCD, SBUX, SHOP Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell
😊 Have a great trading day – Rick
✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Interim deal, Maybe?
The ECB delivered as expected, and the President said he is willing to consider an interim trade deal adding rocket fuel an already extended rally lifting the SPY temporarily to a new record high print. After 8-days up it hard to be a buyer but the bulls are working hard this morning suggesting more than a 100 point Dow gap and possibly secure more records before the weekend. With the FOMC expected to deliver even more stimulus next Wednesday the momentum remains firmly with the bulls.
Overnight Asian markets closed with green across the board with growing optimism of a trade deal. European markets are mostly bullish this morning after the aggressive ECB move even as worry of a German recession grows. The US Futures point to another triple point gap up in the Dow on its 8th day of rally that has recovered nearly 1400 points. Consider the risk carefully you carry into the weekend as this rally become very extended.
On the Calendar
On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have just 11 companies reporting results. Looking through the list I can find none that are particularly notable.
Action Plan
Although there was some light selling as we moved into yesterdays close the bull, remain solidly in control with relentless upside pressure. Having said that with the indexes up 8-days in a row and looking to extend that streak this morning, I don’t see this as a buying opportunity. Heading into the weekend with a gap up open on Friday seems more a profit-taking rather than a day to add risk.
Our T2122 indicator is flashing an extreme over-bought short-term condition, but I wouldn’t bet on a selloff until we see something in the price action that suggests the bears are willing to fight back. That could begin today, but with the bullish momentum and an FOMC expected to provide more stimulus I wouldn’t be surprised if the bears have already taken the rest of week off. Have a wonderful weekend everyone!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Melt-up
The huge Institutional rotation into value plays created an amazing melt-up in index prices yesterday. Traders can witness this massive shift with a quick study of value ETF’s that have moved up so quickly they are nearly parabolic. Adding fuel to the fire is the expected ECB stimulus package and the likely accommodative FOMC decision next Wednesday. Toss in the Trump tariff delay from Oct. 1 to the 15 in what he called a goodwill gesture, and we have the recipe for new record highs in the indexes. I would be careful chasing this rally at this point considering the Dow has already rallied more than 1100 points in just 7-days of trading.
Asian markets mostly rallied on the Trump tariff delay news but continue trouble in Hong Kong kept the HSI in the red at the close of trading. European indexes have reversed earlier gains on fears of a German recession even as the ECB is expected to make an accommodative decision today. Undeterred by European concerns the US Futures point to yet another gap up open to challenge the all-time high resistance levels in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.
On the Calendar
The Thursday Earnings Calendar indicates that 25 companies are confessing their quarterly results. Notable reports include KR, AVGO & DLTH.
Action Plan
An amazing rally yesterday as the indexes relentlessly marched higher. To put this extraordinary rally into perspective, the Dow has gained more than 1100 points in just 7-days or trading. A big portion of the rally seems have occurred in a huge institutional rotation into value plays that happen to be heavier weighted in the indexes. Also, there appears to be a substantial rotation out of safety plays, such as precious metals and bonds into stock value plays.
One reason for this is the expectation that ECB and the FOMC will both provide a monetary backstop to fears of slowing world economies. The president in what he called a goodwill gesture in delayed the tariffs that were scheduled to increase on October 1 to the 15th of the month. As a result this short-term over-extended market is pointing to further extension this morning. The tariff extension, continued institutional rotation, and the likely ECB stimulus package expected today could easily inspire the bulls to set new record highs in the market. I would, however, caution traders to be careful not to chase this rally after so many days up. Profit-taking could begin at any time so keep a watchful eye on price signals.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Bullish T-Line Run
✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈
✅ At hit and Run Candlesticks, we focus on Stocks / Simple Directional Options
The market (SPY), Yesterday was a tremendous money-making day in the market, all thanks to the LTA Scanner and a few critical indicators on our charts. The SPY is on a beautiful T-Line Run, and it will last until it doesn’t, watch price action. Price action over the past ten days has gone from below the T-Bands to above the T-Bands, a bullish move for the buyers. Let’s keep our eyes on the $302.23 high and the price staying above the T-Line. Any changes we will post an update.
Bullish Hook Reversal Pattern As a trader, it might feel like you spend all your time watching the waters and waiting for a signal to “tug at your fishing line.” Although you may have to throw a few fish back to sea along the way, once you spot the Bullish Hook Reversal pattern, you’ll know that you have a winner. A highly reliable signal, this short-to-medium candlestick pattern heralds a reversal in investor sentiment. However, if you want to catch this elusive pattern, you will need to learn (1) what it looks like and (2) what it’s trying to say. For help, use the succinct summary we’ve created below. Read More
The I path Series S&P 500 VXX Short Term Futures ETN. All though VXX is getting near support I don’t see buyers stepping in as of the close yesterday. Watch the price action and the T-Line.
Trade-Ideas
For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. FTCH, ALKS, NEWR, RDUS, MDCO, VSAT, LW, WWD, MLM Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
😊 Have a great trading day – Rick
✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Mid-Day 9/11/2019
✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈
🎯ABBV has tuned as a great trade currently up 62%. ABBV is an (RBB) setup. Working the plan is key.
Yesterday we bought URBN up 25% another (RBB) set up. Working the plan to profits. We also bought UTHR up 2 % today so far, and we bought ZG up 1% today. Both UTHR and ZG came from one of our new Candlesticks scans. Stay in touch with us.
✅ At Hit and Run Candlesticks, we focus on Stocks / Simple Directional Options
Connect with us on Facebook, alerts and free trade ideas from time to time. Connect
Don’t forget to leave us a note.
Connect with us through your smartphone with text alerts, reminders and free trade ideas from time to time. Connect
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
September 11th
Today we remember one of the most tragic days in US history, September 11th, 2001, where nearly 3000 fellow citizens died. First responders that give their lives that day will be honored this morning at the market open with the ringing of the bell. We are also waiting to see if the ECB will provide a stimulus package and the latest reading of the Producer Price Index. The bulls and bears continue to battle in a very tight and challenging to trade chop. Perhaps the market can find some inspiration from the ECB today, or perhaps we continue to chop as we wait on the FOMC next Wednesday.
Asian markets closed mixed waiting on the ECB, and Apple suppliers rallied on the unveiling of their new product yesterday. European markets are green across the board this morning in anticipation of their central bank decision. The US Futures point to a modestly higher open waiting on the ECB. There is something about the smell of freshly printed money that the bulls can’t get enough of and just maybe the ECB will score them the fix they desire.
On the Calendar
The hump day Earnings Calendar has 24 companies expected to report results. ACB & TRLD are among the notable reports today.
Action Plan
As we remember and honor the nearly 3000 Americans that died on September 11th 2001 we wait to hear from the ECB and a possible stimulus package. There is not much that the market loves more than the smell of freshly printed money. It’s a little like a heroin addict that knows the drug is not good for them, but the immediate gratification of the next high outweighs the long-term effects. The damaging effects of debt no longer appears to matter as long as the market continues to go up in the short-term. The President agrees tweeting just a few minutes ago, “Fed boneheads’ should cut interest rates to zero ‘or less,’ US should refinance debt.” Wow!
US Futures point to a slightly higher open this morning as we wait on the ECB and ahead of PPI numbers at 8:30 AM Eastern that is expected to decline according to consensus estimates. Although indexes continue to show signs of short-term overbought conditions the bulls currently seem determined to attack all-time highs and a stimulus package could be just the inspiration to get it done. However, we could also see more choppy price action as we wait for the FOMC to chime in on interest rates next Wednesday. An institutional rotation seems to be underway with risk coming out to defensive assets and rolling into value plays such as financials and energy.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
