Yesterday a considerable gap and selloff displayed the schizophrenic nature of the current price action as the market attempts to price stocks ahead of a likely turbulent 2nd quarter earnings season. With analysts suggesting a 2020 earnings decline from 20 to 30 percent and the US outbreak numbers hitting new highs, the uncertainty of the path forward is understandable. Expect the volatility to continue as the administration rushes to put out another stimulus package hoping to curb the rising unemployment.
Asian markets closed flat to mostly lower overnight while European decline as hopes of the pandemic recovery fade. US Futures continued to display volatility overnight but currently point higher open ahead of petroleum numbers and the FOMC minute release.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have about 20 companies reporting quarterly earnings on this hump day. Looking through the list, the only notable report today is PSMT.
Top Stories
A new spike in infections and the highest day of deaths the US has seen to date. New York led the way with more than 730 deaths. With now more than 400,000 infections and 12,800 deaths, the market gave up early gains.
The administration is moving forward as quickly with another business stimulus spending bill as we continue to hear about more and companies forced to layoff or furlough 10’s of thousands of employees.
The Euro zone failed to reach a deal on a new stimulus plan after 16 hours of negotiations.
Technically Speaking
After a wild 2-day rally, markets sold off, giving back all of the gains huge early morning gains. The DIA, SPY, and QQQ failed at resistance levels in the daily chart leaving behind dark cloud cover candle patterns adding more technical confusion an already messy set of charts. Yesterday’s virus numbers hit a new daily high disappointing a market that was trying to shrug off the outbreak impacts. The volatility of this market is not only very challenging but reflects the complete uncertainty of the earnings season set to kick off next week.
Today we will get a reading on Petroleum supplies, and we get a glimpse at what the FOMC is thinking with the release of the minutes at 2:00 PM Eastern. Mortgage applications reported a drop of 18% this morning, which is not all that surprising with most of the country concerned about the future of the jobs. During the night, futures remained volatile, and what happens next is anyone’s guess. We will get another round of jobless numbers Thursday morning and will hear from Jerome Powell. Plan your trading very carefully.
“Gap and crap” may be crude, but it is a very accurate description of the market on Tuesday. After a 3.5% gap higher at the open and a little roller-coaster ride, markets slid all afternoon to close flat on the day. The SPY gained 0.12%, the DIA gained 0.07%, and the QQQ lost 0.04% for the day. Oil fell during the session as hope for an announcement of major production cuts on Thursday faded some from Monday. The closing price (WTI) was $24.10/barrel while 10-year bond yields rose to 0.734%.
Related to the economic stimulus, during the day Tuesday President Trump fired the acting Pentagon IG (Bush appointee) who was to oversee the $2 Trillion package. This is part of his much broader plan to replace IGs across all agencies, as he seeks more personal loyalty to himself. Add this termination to his written statement that he would not allow the fund watchdog to make a report to Congress about any bailout decisions (as required by law) without his express permission. What you get is a valid concern about the fairness and transparency of stimulus operations. Since both Republicans and Democrats have already voiced opposition to the move, it is likely to cause political rancor soon.
In business news, a Fed survey was reported. The survey stated only 20% of small businesses had the money to withstand two months without revenue. This led to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin to seek and Majority Leader McConnell to announce that the Senate will vote Thursday on a new bill offering an additional $250 billion in small business bailout loans/grants. It is unclear how this will work since only the House has the right to approve spending and the House is not scheduled to resume session until April 20th. Larry Kudlow (White House) also told Fox News that early planning for reopening the economy was underway and that reopening might begin in 4-8 weeks.
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At the daily presser, the President again looked for a scapegoat to blame. This time he claimed the WHO caused months of delay in US response and (probably more importantly), criticized him as his attempt to rewrite history continues. He said “we’re going to look into them (WHO) and put a powerful hold on their funding because we fund them, provide the majority of their funding and they’re very China-centric.” When pushed on the funding pull, he back-tracked to say he will consider it. This came as he also claimed that his own downplaying of and calling the virus a hoax for 6 weeks was because he was just acting as a cheerleader for the country. However, the idea that the WHO knew about the virus for months, downplayed, and/or hid it, is ridiculous and does not match the facts.
On the virus front itself, the world is nearing 1.5 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19. The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,446,557confirmed cases and 83,149 deaths. On the positive side, China has lifted the quarantine (some restrictions remain) for Wuhan after 76 days. Assuming no additional outbreaks there, this could be seen as a hopeful sign.
Meanwhile, in the US we now have 400,549 confirmed cases and 12,911 deaths. In mixed news, New York recorded its worst day for deaths, but the rate of new cases is plateauing in the state. At the daily event, Dr. Birx (White House) said we have a million-test backlog (more kits are available now, but labs don’t have the capacity to process them all as received). However, she hoped that bringing existing ABT test-processing machines online can add 100,000/day capacity soon. Current test result time varies from place to place and by case priority but ranges from 2 to 5 days for the vast majority of tests at the moment (few instant tests are in place just yet).
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red with the exceptions of Japan and India, which were both strongly green. In Europe, markets are red across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are all on the green side this morning, but looking at less than a half percent gap higher.
The only major economic news for Wednesday are Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Minutes (2 pm). Once again, there are no major earnings on the day.
The truth is that the economy (US and global) will recover. It’s really just a question of when. We should expect news cycles to continue to be bad and we’ll probably see fits and starts in the recovery. Still, in the long run, we’ll be fine and a fast economic restart is not a nicety, not a primary concern. It will work itself out once the virus is totally under control. So, for long-term investors, it’s definitely time to go bargain shopping with the money we can afford to forget about for quite some time.
However, as traders, it’s a different story. We have a short-term bullish trend, but after Tuesday’s candle we very well could see markets go back down to test the uptrend. It is still likely going to be a long time until we see markets relentlessly rip higher the way we did back before mid-February. So, as we’ve said, even with a lot of bad news already “baked into” markets, we need to continue to be attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds). It’s still not a good swing trading market yet with all the gaps and volatility. Be cautious on any swing trades you take.
Ed
There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Yesterday’s dramatic rally is once again leaping higher this morning as health officials report that infection rates are showing signs of improving. That is indeed excellent news, but with 2nd quarter earnings just around the corner and infection number nearing 375K, recovery may still be a long way off. Stay disciplined to your trading plan and avoid chasing already very extended prices as profit-taking could begin at any time. Trading with the fear of missing out can quickly add insult to already injured trading accounts.
Asian markets followed the lead of the US rally closing in the green across the board. European markets are decidedly green this morning, with the DAX advancing 4%. US futures point to another huge gap up ahead of earnings and the JOLTS report at 10:00 AM Eastern. Watch price action closely for the possibility of profit-taking with the Dow having gains nearly 3000 points in just 2-days.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have 20 companies stepping up to report quarterly results this Tuesday. Notable reports include CONN and LEVI.
Top Stories
There is more hope this morning with health officials saying we have begun to flatten the curve virus growth. Unfortunately, the US infections could reach 375,000 soon, and the death toll is nearly 11,000. Around the world, Japan has now declared a national emergency, Spain’s death rate is once again on the rise, and Russia reports a sharp increase in infections. With a potential vaccine, still, a long way off the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to impact our way of life for months to come.
As the market sharply rebounds, a new poll indicates that more and more Americans worry about the loss of wages and covering the cost of health care. Within a consumer-based economy, that could have long-term business impacts should consumer sentiment continue to contract.
The Government and 3M agree on a deal that will get 166.5 million medical masks to the US over the next 3-months to help with the virus response.
After checking into the hospital just one day ago due to complications from the coronavirus, UK’s Prime Minister entered the intensive care yesterday afternoon and remained there as of this morning.
Technically Speaking
Yesterday’s sharp rally looks to continue this morning on hopes that the infection rate is starting to flatten. The relief is sweet, but with earnings, just around the corner, traders will have to stay on their toes as the worst of the impacts may still lie ahead. Unfortunately, in this all or nothing market, the massive morning gaps continue to make the risk of trading very high. Option prices remain very high with wide bid/ask spreads, and the extreme price volatility makes holding positions overnight unpalatable for most retail traders.
As the futures point to another 800 point gap, the fear of missing out can be very dangerous if traders rush in chasing prices. With a 2-day Dow rally of nearly 3000 points, those holding positions may be more inclined to take profits, so observe price action for clues of reversal. The market remains very emotional, and though infection rates may be cresting, we are still a long way from recovery. Matain, your discipline, sticking to your trading plan and rules, avoiding emotional decision making as the market dramatically gyrates.
The bulls ran wild Monday with a 4% gap up and follow-through to the upside. This was impressive, even in the face of oil down hard on the postponement of an OPEC+ summit to discuss oil production cuts. The market move breaks us out of a J-hook pattern, giving us now a low, high, high-low and higher-high. So, we have a bullish trend now. On the day, the SPY closed up 6.76%, the DIA up 7.45%, and the QQQ up 7.20%. The VXX closed down as you’d expect now at 42.21 and as mentioned Oil (WTI) was back down to $26.37/barrel. The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.673% on the day.
It seemed clear that markets are looking to the future, discussing recovery strategies and easing timetables, even though new cases and deaths continue to mount. The same is true in Oil markets as the buzz Monday was not the postponement of a summit and name-calling, but the “fact” that the Saudis and Russians are “near” an agreement on production cuts to drive up oil prices.
In virus-economic news, BA closed its last remaining (South Carolina) commercial jet production facility on Monday. AMZN also announced it is tracking warehouse workers and may fire them if they violate company social distancing rules. Meanwhile, Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke out during the day. In a CNBC interview, she said that a V-shaped recovery is still possible, but she is worried that will not be the case. Specific issues related to high levels of debt (both consumer and small business), and rolling increases of acidity are more likely to cause the recovery to have “fits and stalls” rather than get back to pre-shutdown efficiency like flipping a switch back to the “on” position.
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The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,359,398 confirmed cases and 75,945 deaths. In Russia, the reported daily new case number rose 1,000 for the first time. In Spain, the daily death toll rose 17% above the number of the previous day. In the UK, PM Johnson was moved to intensive care after his Sunday hospital admission. One of his cabinet members has also entered self-isolation.
Meanwhile, in the US we now have 368,449 confirmed infections and just under 11,000 deaths. In good news, there are signs that the infection growth rate is starting to flatten. In fact, the mean model is now calling for “only” 81,000 deaths (versus 100,000-200,000 prior estimates). However, for now, US death rates are still exponential, but there are some signs of peaking in early states (New York in particular).
Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green across most the board (the exception being a red Australia). In Europe, markets are also strongly green across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to another 2-3% gap higher at the open.
The only major economic news for Tuesday is Feb. JOLTS (10 am). Again, there are no major earnings on the day.
Markets seem to have really latched on to optimism. We finally have a bullish trend in place on the daily chart. So, while we can expect much more bad virus and economic news, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets. So, it may well be time to be getting back involved in the market. Still, we have to assume there will continue to be a lot of gaps and volatility. Remember, not to chase, not to predict turns, and to plan and manage your trades.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: CGC, XRAY, HALO, CLDR, FSLR, TMUS, NWL, CROX, NTAP. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Hopeful improvements in Europe have the bulls gaping the market up to challenge the highs of last week. The President also issued a statement of hopefulness with the first decline in the daily number of deaths for New York. That’s good news to be sure, but health officials warn the next couple weeks will be worst we have seen to date. With infection numbers nearing 350,000 and the death toll headed to 10,000, expect a lot more news-driven volatility in the week ahead.
Asian markets opened the trading week mostly bullishly, with Japan rallying nearly 4.25% by the close. European markets are celebrating a gradual slowdown of new virus infections with the DAX up more than 4% this morning. The US futures point to a gap up that may regain last week’s market highs at the open ahead of a light day of earnings and economic data.
Earnings Calendar
3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade MX 12:30 PM ET
Earnings Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 37 companies fessing up to results. With mostly small, very small-cap and penny stocks today there are no particularly notable reports today.
Top Stories
With some hopeful viral improvements in Europe, the bulls are feeling the desire to run. The British Prime Minister is now in the hospital due to a worsening case of the virus with the euro-zone reporting the cases and deaths are appearing to slow.
The oil price has once again turned lower, with the deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia delayed. However, reports suggest they are close to an agreement to cut production, putting a floor in the price of the commodity.
Although there more than 700 deaths in New York this weekend, the numbers declined for the first time. The President issued a hopeful statement that things are getting better, but health officials warned that this week things would likely get much worse comparing it to Peral Harbor. With infection numbers nearing 350,000 and 9600 deaths and airlines cutting more than 90% of the flights in and out of New York, suggests we still have a long road to recovery in the US.
Technically Speaking
What we hear in the news is the Dow is leaping higher as numbers in Europe improve. While that is true, let’s keep in mind that even with this morning’s rally, the Dow has only recovered to last week’s highs that could serve as price resistance. I welcome any bullishness, but an 800 point opening gap into price resistance is not a reason to get all caught up in fear of missing out and chasing the open. Remember your rules and the patterns that you trade. Plan your trades carefully with careful consideration of your tolerance to risk.
Should the Dow recover and hold the 2018 market low of support and the QQQ recover and hold its 500-day average, we may well have some technicals and price patterns to build a bullish case upon, but let’s assume nothing and wait for the proof. Health officials suggest this could be a dreadful week for the US. Should that prove true, expect news-driven price action that can produce whipsaws and full-on reversals. Long story short, let’s hope for the best but prepare for the possibility that the road ahead is likely to be extremely challenging.
March Payroll numbers far below even much-lowered expectations (and having been measured several weeks ago, in mid-March) offset an incredible oil rally Friday to leave indecisive Bearish Harami Spinning Top candles across all 3 major indices. On the day, the SPY closed down 1.54%, the DIA down 1.57%, and the QQQ down 1.42%. As mentioned, oil (WTI) rallied 14% to close at $28.80/barrel. The 10-year bond yield also closed down to 0.611%. Interestingly, even going into the weekend the VXX was down again to 45.44.
The President’s Friday meeting with US Oil company execs failed to make progress. The companies oppose production cuts and the President took no action on the matter (options discussed previously). US supply cuts were a prerequisite for Russian/Saudi agreement to the deal the President implied he had brokered (a 10-15mil barrels/day cut in Russian/Saudi oil production). So, Friday’s failure led to more name-calling over the weekend. As a result, the planned Monday OPEC+ conference has now been postponed until “maybe Thursday.” After two days of MASSIVE price gains the end of last week (32% overall), oil is likely to fall hard again Monday on the loss of recently renewed hope. This story will continue to develop as Russia and the Saudis are trying to enlist G20 members to pressure the US to cut oil production as well.
Over the weekend, the President also started backing away from his April 30 date for the easing of anti-virus measures. He again floated Easter for some easing as he once more started repeating the business mantra “the cure cannot be worse than the disease.” However, the President also said this week and next will be bad, with a lot of deaths, just one day before he said we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. There was also a heated argument Sunday in the President’s Task Force with a non-member, non-expert (Navarro) demanding that restrictions be eased and the malaria drug be touted despite no data proving its effectiveness. Dr. Fauci apparently did not back down. So, to say the messaging coming from the White house is mixed is an understatement.
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The world has now surpassed 1.25 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19. The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,285,261 confirmed cases and 70,356 deaths. In the UK, PM Johnson was admitted to hospital “for tests” after his diagnosis with COVID-19 last week. In Asia, Singapore quarantined 20,000 foreign workers in two dormitories amid a new uptick in cases. Japan announced a massive economic stimulus worth 20% of their normal GDP, while at the same time PM Abe prepares to declare a state of emergency for larger cities. However, the growth rate in Spain and Italy continues to flatten.
Meanwhile, in the US we now have 337,933 confirmed infections and 9,648 deaths. Perhaps just an oddity, but at least one Tiger in a NYC Zoo has tested positive as of Sunday, with other large cats showing symptoms. This raises the specter of either the virus evolving or human-animal transmission also being a risk. However, the news is not all bad as the growth rate in new cases has slowed in New York.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. In Europe, markets are also strongly green across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a large gap higher at the open (about 4%).
There are no major economic news or earnings reports for Monday.
Markets seem to want to latch on to optimism. A slow in the new case and death rates in Europe and the first signs of the same in some parts of the US may let bulls run again. However, expect economic news cycles to continue to be terrible for a long time to come. The impact on quarterly numbers is also likely to drag on for two more reporting cycles. As we’ve said, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets. Either way, we have to assume there will continue to be a lot of gaps and volatility. We need to continue to either be very fast (day trade), very slow (long-term holds) or just wait.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: MO, MXIM, MDLZ, BMY, INTC, MSFT, LLY, CAT, CSCO, XOM. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After hearing that 6.6 million people filed for unemployment as shell shocked chose to ignore the record-making number and rally after Russia and OPEC agree to cut oil production. This morning we get the Employment Situation number that will only show a partial impact from the outbreak as the full measure of the crisis will not occur until the April report. As we approach another weekend of rising infections, deaths, and layoffs, anything is possible, so plan carefully and protect your capital.
Asian markets closed the week mixed after a record surge in oil prices. European markets are currently showing modest declines across the board as the euro-zone report that business activity fell to new record lows. Ahead of the monthly jobs, number futures point to a gap down, taking back about half of yesterday’s gains. However, we should expect that to get better or worse with very volatile price action as soon as they reveal the numbers. Buckle up!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have we have just 19 companies reporting quarterly results. Looking through the list, the only particularly notable report is STZ.
Top Stories
The President has invoked wartime measures to compel companies to build much-needed ventilators and masks. New York is already desperately short of this critical breathing equipment, and doctors will soon have to make life and death decisions. As of this morning, more than 245,000 Americans have the infection, and more than 6,000 have died.
Those waiting for their stimulus check may have long wait unless you have filed your taxes online and provided a direct deposit to option for the government. According to reports, those receiving paper checks will have to wait up to 5-months.
Technically Speaking
Traders shrugged off the historic unemployment number, with 6.6 million people applying for benefits. Instead, the market chose to focus on news that Russia and OPEC will cut oil production, reducing the intense downward pricing pressure on the commodity. While this will help the demand destruction created by the corona outbreak is far from over, and surplus supplies will continue to weigh heavily on the prices. Today we will get a reading on the Employment Situation in the US. Although the full impact will not appear until the April report estimates still expect a sharp decline, that could be the worst reading in a decade. How the market might react is anyone’s guess.
Ahead of the Jobs report futures look to give back about half of yesterday’s gain. However, that could change instantly for the better or worse once the number is revealed. As we head into another weekend with viral infections expected to rise and more and more people lose their jobs, it should not be a surprise if sellers pile on to avoid the uncertainty. Protect your capital! The day will come when things start to improve, and there will be an incredible opportunity as long as you haven’t lost your money trading within this extreme volatility. Stay safe; my friends and have a wonderful weekend.
Oil prices surged Wednesday night (on word that China was filling its strategic oil reserve, meaning higher demand), which had futures up almost 2.5% in early morning hours. This was then offset by a worse than even worst-case scenario estimate of the unemployment claims number, which came in at 6.65mil. claims. So, markets opened down slightly Thursday. However, after a roller-coaster morning, President Trump claimed (unsubstantiated) that he had brokered a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia. In that supposed deal, the two had agreed to cut production by 10-15mil barrels/day) helped the bulls run late. As a result, markets closed higher with the SPY up 2.35%, the DIA up 2.22%, and the QQQ up 2.03%. All three major indices printed bullish engulfing signals on the day. The VXX fell to 47.36, while Oil (WTI) shot up to $25.01/barrel and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.624%.
It is worth noting that a Kremlin Spokesman denied that Russia had agreed to any oil production cuts. Saudi Arabia also told Bloomberg it had not agreed to production cuts unless done in conjunction with cuts by every major oil producer, including the US. In addition, while President Trump plans to meet with US Oil Producer and Refining Execs today, there are ongoing internal White House arguments over ideas like restricting US Oil exports, implementing tariffs on foreign oil, asking US producers to cut output, letting US producers store their oil in the US Strategic Reserve locations and plain old bailouts for US oil companies.
Related to unemployment, it was reported Thursday that the New York, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Texas state unemployment funds are on the verge of insolvency due to the surge in new claims. There has not been time for a federal response to this problem. The White House also adjusted the relief check timelines as Treasury Sec. Mnuchin said the first direct deposit payments to individuals will start in 2 weeks (about 60 million people). However, according to an IRS analysis sent to Congress Thursday, any person needing a paper check (about 100 million), will have to wait. The IRS will begin to cut checks during the week of May 4 and the report said it could take up to 20 weeks to get all the paper checks cut and mailed. Mnuchin disputed this timeline, but that is what was reported to Congress. Obviously these issues could impact the economy as the stimulus will be quick for some, still far out for many and possibly delayed for an unknown amount if state funds did become insolvent.
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Sec. Mnuchin also said the small business lending program (which turns into grants if enough employees are retained) will be up and running Today. However, JPM said publicly Thursday afternoon (and other lenders confirmed to CNBC off the record) that they will not be ready to accept applications Friday as they had not gotten guidance on what the process will be from the Treasury Dept. Regardless, that would only be a delay of a few days, worst case.
During the day Thursday, the world surpassed 1 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19, having doubled the number in one week. The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,030,1937 confirmed cases and 54,198 deaths. In Asia, a second wave is taking shape. Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also reported new outbreaks. A smaller increase in Singapore caused the response to shut schools and businesses. Meanwhile, South Korea also had a small uptick in cases.
In the US, we now have 245, 280 confirmed infections and 6.095 deaths. (Twice as many cases as any other country, but China’s data is very suspect and India isn’t even testing broadly.) In terms of impact, new states are implementing stay-at-home orders (TN) and others are extending the existing orders for another month (OH). Still, 10 states still have none in place. It’s clear many remain ignorant or are not taking the virus seriously. For example, Georgia’s Governor claimed he only learned Thursday that the virus could be spread by asymptomatic carriers. In addition, in a stunning lack of wisdom, many bible belt states are refusing to issue stay-at-home orders or have exempted church gatherings, including “mega-churches.”
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red. In Europe, markets are also red across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap lower at the open, but the March Employment numbers could take that either way at 8:30 am.
Friday’s major economic news includes Mar. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Mar. Non-farm Payrolls, and Mar. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Mar. Services PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). The only major earnings on the day will be STZ before the open.
We should expect news cycles about the US and most of the world to continue to be terrible for at least another 30 days. The impact on quarterly numbers is also likely to drag on for two more reporting cycles. However, as we’ve said, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets. Either way, there isn’t a lot of reason to take on new risk ahead of a long weekend news cycle. We need to continue to either be very fast (day trade), very slow (long-term holds) or just wait.
Ed
No Trade Ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After a nasty day of selling and ahead of what is likely to be a historic jobless number, US futures are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a substantial overnight gap up. Perhaps its, because the number has been baked into the current prices or maybe, we’re just trying to bury our head in the sand a pretend it doesn’t matter. I could be wrong, but having 4 to 5 million unemployed in a consumer-based economy is an impact that will eventually be impossible to ignore.
Asian markets closed mixed, but mostly higher overnight and European markets indicate modest gains across the board this morning. Ahead of the earnings and economic data oil prices are up 10%, and futures suggest a recovery of about 1/3 of yesterday’s selloff. Think and plan carefully if you decide to risk your hard-earned money in this wild and emotionally irrational market.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have 44 companies reporting earnings today. Notable reports include WBA, CHWY, KMX & PLAY.
Top Stories
US Treasury yields are falling this morning in reaction to the pending jobless claims number that some predict could top 4 million. Sadly economists expect millions more soon as the virus wreaks havoc on business. There are, however, some bright spots on the jobs front with grocery stores and essential supply outlets continuing to hire to keep up with demand.
The President is considering halting domestic flights between coronavirus hot spots in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus.
It could be a very challenging 2nd earnings season with companies delaying reports and analysts withdrawing forecasts amid the virus chaos.
Technically Speaking
After an ugly day of selling on Wednesday, US futures put on a brave face pointing to a considerable gap up as the irrational volatility of this market continues. For some reason, the futures are trying to convince everyone that historic unemployment isn’t a big deal. However, with infection numbers surpassing 215,000 and continuing to rise, economists expect this number to continue to increase dramatically. Attempting to ignore the massive impacts of unemployment in a consumer-based economy shows how dangerously irrational and manipulated the market can be. Think carefully before reacting emotionally and chasing these wild morning reversals.
Sadly the QQQ was unable to hold its 500-day average during yesterday’s selloff, but this morning’s bullishness ahead of the jobless number suggests it could recover it at the open. The DIA daily 50-average has now crossed down both the 200 & 500-day averages as this outbreak continues to create technically damage to the index charts. With a big data dump this morning and the Friday Employment Stiucation number ahead, traders should prepare for just about anything. Big intra-day news-driven reversal and whipsaws are possible to plan your risk carefully should you choose to risk your hard-earned capital amidst such market uncertainty.
The first day of the quarter was an ugly one for markets as a 3.8% gap down open led to a wide-range day with a close toward the low of the candles. The SPY closed down 4.50%, the DIA down 4.49%, and the QQQ down 4.25%. The VXX was up, closing at 50.22 while Oil (WTI) closed up to $21.20/barrel and the 10-year bond yield was down to 0.602%. All three major indices look like Dreaded “h” patterns in progress.
During the day, more states finally woke up to reality as Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all issued stay-at-home orders. On the D.C. front, lawmakers and the President are now starting to talk about another (4th) virus-relief bill. Speaker Pelosi said she wants to move ahead quickly focusing on infrastructure and state government bailout. For his part, the President has also said he wants a $2 Trillion infrastructure spending bill, but also repeatedly mentioned expanding Corporate deductions to stimulate restaurants and entertainment jobs during the daily presser. These efforts may be difficult as Congressional Republicans have recently blocked infrastructure legislation 3 times due to cost concerns and these ideas would add huge cost and also reduce the tax revenue.
In the daily presser, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said social distancing measures won’t be able to be relaxed until we reach the far tail of the infection curve. He specifically said we could look at easing when we have essentially no new cases and deaths and also have robust testing and isolation systems in place. He did not specifically address timelines, but his remarks certainly did not seem to fall in-line with an easing on May 1.
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The global headline virus numbers continue to climb and will top a million today with current numbers at 951,901 confirmed cases and 48,284 deaths. Meanwhile, the US now has 216,722 confirmed infections and 5,137 deaths as we continue to outpace the rest of the world in new cases (undoubtedly to our recently increased testing).
In economic news, BA will reportedly offer early retirement and buyouts as soon as today. The CEO said it will take years to get the BA Balance Sheet back in shape. The President is also scheduled to meet with Oil execs on Friday. At the daily presser, he said repeatedly that Russia and Saudi Arabia ought to easily reach a deal soon (just his hunch because he thinks the deal is obvious). He also said he “thinks he knows how” to save the US Oil industry in the face of mounting bankruptcies and unworkable business models at $20/barrel oil. No specifics were given, but any answer would likely include a lot of government money.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly higher on news of China will start stockpiling oil. In Europe, markets are also green across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open, ahead of the Jobless Claims numbers.
Thursday’s major economic news includes Imports/Exports, Feb. Trade Balance, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), as well as Feb. Factory Orders (10 am). The only major earnings on the day will be KMX and WBA both before the open.
We should expect news cycles about the US and most of the world to continue to be terrible for at least another 30 days. The impact on quarterly numbers is also likely to drag on for two more reporting cycles. However, as we’ve said, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets.
So, while it MIGHT be time to slowly start looking for setups to enter again, it is not time to get aggressive. Expect erratic trading to continue and size any positions you take correctly for the risk being taken. As always, don’t try to predict reversals, don’t chase runners, and wait for the trades to come to you. We need to continue to either be very fast (day trade), very slow (long-term holds) or just wait.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: TMUS, INCY, VRSK, CHRW, AKAM, NUE, PCAR, CVS, MO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
