Wednesday saw economic news dampen markets as Retail Sales came in much lower than expected (largest drop since ’92), more big banks all had huge (oddly very close percentage-wise) misses, and the worst reading in NY Empire State Mfg. Index since 1946 led to a 2% gap down at the open.  After a volatile rally most of the day, all the major indices sold off the last hour.  As a result, the SPY closed down 2.12%, the DIA down 1.92%, and the tech-buoyed QQQ down just 1.15%.  All three posted indecisive candles with the QQQ being a Harami Spinning Top and the others Doji.  The VXX closed up 8% to 40.41 while the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.633% as investors chased Treasury safety.  Oil (WTI) was below $20 much of the day, but closed at $20.23/barrel on rumors the US government would cap US production by buying more oil for the national strategic reserve.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, there were crowds of unmasked, virus control opponents protesting the state’s stay-at-home order on Wednesday.  Two conservative groups had called the protest, but it was apparently adopted by others as a good number were also carrying rifles and protesting gun laws possibly among other things.  This follows a much smaller group (dozens) who held the same type of protest in Raleigh, North Carolina for an hour on Tuesday.  The point is that some groups are pushing (following the President’s lead, or maybe leading the President?) for an end to virus-control measures that they believe are hurting (the economy) worse than the virus is hurting people.  So far, this seems to be a politically-centric phenomenon but certainly bears notice as most still predict months or measures of some kind ahead.

After the close, Bloomberg reported that the small business Payroll Protection loan/grant fund ran out of money on Wednesday night.  The Treasury Dept. and the SBA have not announced statistics recently.  However, based on the applications processed by just 3 large banks (JPM, WFC, and C) and the SBA saying the average approved loan was $240,000, the math seems right.  At his daily rally, the President took the opportunity to blame the lack of replenishment funds (among other things) on Democrats.  He also reiterated that it was up to states to do the testing (but the Feds will help if needed) and said he expected states and municipalities to control their own borders to prevent cross-jurisdiction spread. If possible, that too would be a sizable economic obstacle.

In Germany, PM Merkel announced tentative steps to begin reopening its economy.  While most restrictions will stay in place until at least May 3^rd, some small shops (less than 8,500sq ft in size) will be allowed to open as soon as next week.  The timing of this announcement was a bit odd as coincidentally Germany reported a jump in new cases on the day.  In the UK, the cabinet is set to extend its nation-wide lockdown for at least 3 more weeks.  In Spain the death toll rose slightly again and the WHO noted that Europe has half the world’s infections (1 million+ cases and 84,000+ deaths) and is not out of the woods. In doing so, it recommended that any EU reopening goes slow to hopefully reduce the chance of more major outbreaks. 

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers crossed 2 million as we now have 2,096,549 confirmed cases and 135,661 deaths.  At the same time, in the US we now have 644,348 confirmed cases and 28,554 deaths. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Japan, Hong Kong, Australia down, while Chinese markets were up slightly.  In Europe, markets are slightly in the green across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing toward a small gap higher in front of the big economic news coming in an hour. 

Thursday’s major economic news includes Mar. Building Permits, Mar. Housing Starts, Mar. Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am).  A Fed member (Williams) also speaks at 2pm.  Major earnings reports include ABT, BLK, BK, KEY, MS, NUE, and TSM all before the open.  ISRG reports after the close.

The uptrend remains in place, but volatility continues to be high and gaps have become the norm.  The economic reports at 8:30 am are likely to call the tune for markets today, especially the Initial Jobless Claims that estimates are putting at 5 million.  However, the unveiling of general reopening guidelines could lift markets, helping traders again look ahead past the short-term economic news. 

Regardless of what happens at the open, in this market, traders need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was another crazy day for markets as the strong rebound rally continued in the face of major bank earnings misses, companies dropping forward guidance, and mostly “not as bad as expected” news.  The major indices gapped 2% higher and while the large-caps had some volatility, the techs continued to rampage higher.  As a result, the SPY closed up 2.95%, the DIA up 2.39%, and the QQQ up 4.35%.  As expected, the VXX was down again to 37.40.  The 10-year bond yield also fell slightly to 0.747%.  However, Oil (WTI), a major barometer of the economy, got hammered again, down 7.5% to $20.74/barrel. 

In terms of virus treatments, a French study (84 patients) released Tuesday evening found that the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine does not help COVID-19 patients (at least statistically-significantly).  Worse yet, the drug does cause serious side effects.  As a result, the study recommended it should be discontinued as a COVID therapy.  This “should” have a negative impact as markets can cross off another miracle.

In relation to economic recovery, a Harvard paper published in the Journal of Science Tuesday suggested that in the absence of a new treatment or a faster-than-expected vaccine, social distancing, school closures and stay-at-home orders will be needed until 2022, at least on an intermittent basis.  Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Tuesday afternoon that a May 1 easing target is “a bit overly optimistic.”  In addition, he said any easing will be on a rolling basis, not all at once (due to a lack of testing capacity). 

On that “Opening” front, another regional group of Governors (this one in the Mid-West) has set up a state-level committee to coordinate when and how to ease their lockdowns.  The Governors of California and Connecticut Governors said to ask them again in mid-May what the timeline will be for easing restrictions. However, the President said some will open even before the end of April.  He also acknowledged reality, saying it is up to the states to make their own timing decisions and to do their own testing. He also said they (states) can come to the Federal government for help, regardless, they (states) will open very soon, very powerfully, and he will hold the Governors accountable very strongly. 

In business news, BA announced that customers canceled orders for 150 of the 737 Max planes last month.  AMZN also announced it is slashing affiliate commissions (as much as 63%).  The reason behind this move us unclear, but this is another big revenue hit for publishers, social marketers, and other businesses.  However, on a positive note, AAPL announced it had shipped 2.5 million iPhones in China during March, a sharp rebound after the worst month ever in February.  

In follow-up to Easter’s OPEC+ production cuts, a little clarity may be coming to how President Trump plans to cut US production by 300,000 barrel/day. On Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission began discussing production caps for the first time in 50 years.  However, there was immediate fierce pushback from companies such as FANG, which said it would halt all drilling in Texas if the state instituted any caps.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers crossed 2 million as we now have 2,016,840 confirmed cases and 126,568 deaths.  At the same time, in the US we now have 614,246 confirmed cases and 26,064 deaths. 

Overnight, Asian markets were down across the board, South Korea being the exception. In Europe, markets are heavily in the red (about 2% on average) at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing toward a 1.5% gap lower on heavy earnings misses from major banks.  Oddly all the banks seemed to miss estimates by 45-46%, yet run completely different businesses with different focuses and estimates…funny how that happened.

On Wednesday, major economic news includes Mar Core Retail Sales and Apr. NY Empire Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), Mar. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Business Inventories (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earning s reports include ASML, BAC, C, GS, PNC, SCHW, UNH, and USB all before the open.

It appears traders have been smoking that hopium, “pricing markets for perfection” amidst what certainly appears to be massive economic uncertainty.  Meanwhile, the major analysts and economists are saying the downturn will likely be the worst seen since the Great Depression, with literally millions of small businesses at risk of closing and tens of millions of loans at risk of default.  Something has to give…both can’t be right.

While the uptrend continues, we are now in a very uncertain earnings season and the economic news will continue to be bad for some time.  Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again according to the chart, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday started with a small gap down and then a selloff that more than faded all the progress the bulls had made since Wed.  morning among large-caps.  However, the tech-heavy QQQs bucked the trend by rallying all day after the gap down.  At the end of the day the bulls had pushed back up toward the open to where the SPY was down 0.92%, the DIA down 1.25%, but the QQQ up 1.08%.  The VXX fell again to 40.68 and 10-year bond yield rose to 0.762%.  Oil (WTI) fell despite Sunday’s OPEC+ production cut deal as it closed at $22.60/barrel.  From a technical standpoint, the QQQ printed a bullish engulfing candle and SPY printed a black hammer with both of the large-caps avoiding printing Evening Star signals.

During the day the President felt the need to assert his belief that he had sole power (total power) to ReOpen America Businesses. Contrary to his assertion, the Governors of six Northeast states (NY, NJ, RI, DE, CN, and PA), which actually issued lock-down orders, formed their own state-level working group to coordinate their own decisions on the matter.  Meanwhile, out west, the states of CA, WA, and OR also formed a similar regional working group.  The key take-away is not the President’s belief or even the political struggle. 

The key point is that the President is obviously feeling a lot of pressure from economic advisors and business interests to get the economy up and running again.  However, at the same time, the NY Fed announced Monday that it is starting to scale back its recent emergency interventions (repo operations) “in light of the more stable markets.”  So, it seems the Fed is less jittery about market conditions than the White House (and others) seem to be about the economic situation. Since markets are said to be a discounting machine that front-runs the economy by 3-6 months, maybe this is an indication we are only looking to turn the corner by next year.

However, on the topic of economic pain, Ginnie Mae (FHA and VA loans) reported that its mortgage bailout requests had risen 78% in the last week and are currently at just under 6% of the loans they are servicing.  So far, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac forbearance requests are still at a much lower 2% level.  So, even at this early point in the economic fallout, mortgage repayments are already showing stress.

On the longer-term outlook, a non-partisan watchdog (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) released estimates that the US federal deficit for the year will top $3.8 trillion for 2020…even if Congress does not approve any more stimulus/relief (which they almost certainly will).  That represents almost 19% of the economy and is the highest deficit as a percentage of GDP since 1945.  The same group estimates this will lead to total public debt equaling total GDP by the end of October (roughly $20+ Trillion).  They also warned their numbers may well be on the low side due to using conservative estimates.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,936,700 confirmed cases and 120,568 deaths.  In Asia, the number of cases is picking up again, with relatively large increases in places like Singapore.  However, new Chinese cases fell back below 100 again.  In Europe, the UK said it is likely to extend its lockdown as far as late May.  Meanwhile, in Germany, the country’s Health Minister said they have begun plans to implement a gradual recovery in a step-by-step fashion.  As in the US, no timelines have been announced yet and they will be seeking a balance between preventing new outbreaks and economic recovery.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 587,173 confirmed cases and 23,644 deaths.  The pace of increase in new cases continues to slow in the worst-hit areas like NY, NJ, and MA, which reported a lower number of new cases.  The rate of new deaths is also starting to decline but that statistic continues to lag the reduction in new case rates.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, as China’s March Trade Data came in down, but much better than expected.  (Down 6.6% vs. a 14% drop expected.) In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly green at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing toward a 1.5% gap higher on early mixed earnings news (JPM earnings way down, but explained it as stockpiling reserves for the virus impact, JNJ cuts outlook but beat on revenue and raises dividend, etc.).

On Tuesday, major economic news is limited to Mar. Imports/Exports (8:30 am).  On the earnings front, DAL, FAST, FRC, JNJ, JPM, and WFC all report before the open.  JBHT will report after the close.

While the uptrend continues, we are now entering a very uncertain earnings season.  Do not be surprised if reports come in spotty (good in some cases, bad in others) as supply and demand pressures hit different industries at different times and some companies spin the story one way while others spin it another. Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious about any swing trades you take.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMD, ATVI, INTC, NVDA, ANSS, BABA, JD, AMGN, BMY. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday (virtual Friday) was an interesting day.  Substantial hopes for oil production cuts led to massive strength in the energy names premarket.  Then we got a much worse unemployment number than expected, followed minutes later by the Fed announcing details of a new $2.3 Trillion asset purchase program.  As a result, we gapped higher about 1%, except the oil heavy small-caps which gapped up 3.5%.  However, a volatile day and no completion of the OPEC+ deal left us with “gap-up dojis” across the 3 major indices.  The SPY closed up 1.52%, the DIA up 1.20%, and the QQQ flat at +0.14%.  The VXX was down slightly to 41.57 and the 10-yr. bond yield closed down to 0.729%  Oil was the real roller-coaster as it was up 12% at one point, but the lack of an announced production cut during the session caused a massive all-day selloff that left Oil (WTI) down 7.5% to $23.19/barrel.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ did agree on the expected 9.7mil barrel/day production cut for May and June (about 10% of global production), as well as 8mil barrels per day from July through December and then 6mil barrels per day all of 2021.  As usual, the vast majority of the cuts will come from Saudi Arabia (8.5 billion barrel/day). However, for the first time ever, the US will participate in the cuts, although the mechanism and duration of US cuts are not clear and there are conflicting reports.  The sticking block for a deal was Mexico until Sunday.

Apparently the President agreed that the US will cut approximately 300,000 barrels/day of US production to offset Mexico’s refusal to cut more than 100,000 barrels.  (OPEC had demanded that Mexico cut 400,000 barrels/day.)  Bloomberg reported that the reason the US is participating in the OPEC+ cuts is that Mexico holds a huge block of put options (price insurance) with Wall Street investment banks and US oil companies.  This insurance policy means that low oil prices don’t hurt Mexico but instead pass the pain on to US interests.  Bloomberg estimated (based on prior year data) that Mexico is still receiving about $45/barrel (with the difference between $45 and the market price paid by the US put sellers).  As a result of this hedge, Mexico had no reason to agree to major production cuts.  It also had allies in the US who had pressed the President to do whatever it takes to secure OPEC+ cuts (and they hope, push oil prices back up above $45).

On Sunday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said he was cautiously optimistic that the virus outbreak in the US is slowing enough that measures could start to be eased IN SOME WAYS AND IN SOME AREAS during May.  However, he said that other areas will take longer and some measures (social distancing) will not end. And, regardless of when easing starts, we need to expect new outbreaks to occur.  In short, life will not return to normal for a long time to come. The important thing is that we have enough testing, immediate isolation and contact-tracing capacity in place in the specific areas eased before the time of easing in order to track down new cases and contain the new outbreaks.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,864,555 confirmed cases and 115,099 deaths.  In the UK, PM Johnson was released from the hospital to continue recovery at home.  Both Spain and Italy saw a leveling off of new cases, but their death numbers fluctuate as the toll rose again in Spain after 3 days of decline. Nonetheless, Spain began easing some of its lock-down measures on Monday. On the downside, Russia saw a record number of new cases. And in Asia, Indonesia and Singapore also saw new record numbers of cases, while the number of new cases in China has once again climbed above 100/day again.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 560,433 confirmed cases and 22,115 deaths.  Over the weekend AAPL and GOOG teamed up to announce a contact tracing platform based on cell phone GPS positioning and Bluetooth connections made.  This is very similar to the mandatory tracking and “social passport” phone app the Chinese have deployed.  Advocates for civil liberties and limitations on governmental power have already voiced concern over the potential for abuse of this new platform in the longer-term.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red with Hong Kong and Australia being the green outliers.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but are mostly green with the majors (DAX, FTSE, CAC) well on the positive side at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat, sitting on either side of break-even from Thursday’s close.

There is no major economic news for Monday, although markets may react to Friday’s March Core CPI, which came in slightly lower than estimates or Sunday’s Oil Production Cut announcement.  There are also no major earnings Monday.

Other noteworthy virus-reaction news includes AMZN having stopped accepting new Grocery customers. In addition, JPM has raised its mortgage lending standards to reduce the risk of loan defaults. The new standards include a 700+ credit score and a 20% cash down payment on the purchase. DIS also announced it will furlough 43,000 union workers from its Disney World theme park.

On Sunday, Fed voter Neel Kashkari said he expected a “long and hard road to recovery” with rolling phases of flare-up and that expectations of a V-shaped economic recovery are too optimistic.  So, the uptrend continues, but fears remain palpable.  The good news is that the market tends to lead the economy by 3-6 months.  Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious about any swing trades you take.

Ed

There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped 1% higher at the open and then bulls followed-through to print bullish harami candles across all the major indices.  Markets seemed to surge after Dr. Fauci held a positive outlook press conference.  However, others said it was after Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Presidential race.  Regardless, the SPY closed up 3.45%, the DIA up 3.41%, and the QQQ up 2.12%.  The VXX fell to 42.40, while the 10-year bond yield up to 0.771% and Oil (WTI) closed up over 10% to $26.14/barrel (somebody thinks they know something about OPEC+).

The relief/stimulus bidding war also heated up again. On Tuesday Senate Republicans had said they would vote Thursday on an additional $250 billion for small business.  On Wednesday Democrats announced they will seek an additional $500 billion to include the $250 billion for small businesses and would add $150 billion for hospitals and $100 billion for states.  Then the figure $350 billion additional was floated by Republican sources to add in bailout money for the cruise industry. However, the $2 Trillion infrastructure bill both the President and Congressional Democrats supported a week or so ago looks to have been shelved again for now as Senate Republicans remain concerned about costs.

Related to the previously passed stimulus bill, banks are experiencing huge logistical issues that are leading to delays.  For example, just 2 banks (JPM and BAC) received 625,000 small business loan applications in the first week.  At the same time, small community banks that normally process 5-6 SBA loans in a year, have received 500 to process in the last week.  These are just front-end issues and don’t reflect the problem experienced on the government (SBA) end to review and approve (or denial) of perhaps millions of new loan applications.  Obviously, delays apply more stress to the economy.

CNBC reported that the consensus expectation for new unemployment claims is at 5.25 million again this week.  After the close, California reported that 2.4 million of their citizens had filed unemployment since March 12.  However, we knew unemployment was bad.  The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero until the economy has weathered the pandemic.  Specifically, they tied the decision to their maximum employment mandate.

On the virus front itself, the world crossed above 1.5 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19.  The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,529,439 confirmed cases and 89,416 deaths (5.8%).  The number of new cases in both Russia and Germany jumped in the last 24 hours. In addition, both Spain and Italy experienced an increase in deaths again Tuesday (after they had fallen for a few days).  However, overnight Spain reports its death toll fell again slightly. While that goes on, the EU failed to reach an agreement on its own 500 billion Euro economic stimulus plan after a 16-hour conference call.  Meanwhile, the UN has announced that it estimates 195 million jobs will be lost globally in Q2 due to the virus.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 435,160 confirmed cases and 14,797 (3.4%) deaths.  As mentioned above, Dr. Fauci told a press conference that he is now expecting the rate of new cases to plateau starting next week.  However, he reiterated this doesn’t mean it’s time to ease restrictions.  In addition, the consensus model now forecasts US deaths will be about 61,000 (20,000 less than the model showed a week ago).  Part of the reason for this is adherence to the guidelines as shown by drops in travel. For example, the TSA announced that it screened a record low number of passengers Tuesday (97,000).  While still a huge number of people and flights, that is down 95% from a year ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  In Europe, markets are also mixed, but more evenly distributed red-green at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing toward a one percent gap lower at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Initial Jobless Claims and Mar. Core PPI (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  However, OPEC+ will also meet (10 am) to discuss potential production cuts. Major earnings on the day are limited to DAL and FRC before the open.  For Friday, markets are closed, but major economic news will include Mar. Core CPI (8:30 am) and Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  There are no major earnings Friday.

The uptrend continues, but the lack of conviction is palpable.  The OPEC meeting today may result in production cuts that could boost the energy sector.  However, unemployment claims and the fact this is “virtual Friday” are unknowns that may be a drag on the day.  So, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  It’s still not a good swing trading market yet with all the gaps and volatility.  And a 3-day weekend is a long time to be holding a position you cannot adjust.  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist on “Virtual Friday” of a 3-day weekend. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service