Virus Fear Giving the Bears Strength

Volatility reigned Friday as markets gapped up 2.5% at the open, then immediately sold off back to the Thursday close and continued the roller coaster the rest of the day. Overall, there was a 3.5% range on the day and we closed with significant black-body candles, but the gap up left us green overall on the day.  The SPY closed up 1.20%, DIA up 1.87%, and QQQ up 0.79%.  The VXX was down almost 7% to 38.71 and T2122 fell dramatically to 30.43.  10-year bond yields rose to 0.707% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $36.48/barrel.

On Saturday the President’s Trade Advisor Navarro said the White House is looking for another $2 trillion stimulus package focusing on aid to manufacturers.  However, at the same time, Chief Economic Advisor Kudlow was saying we are likely seeing a v-shaped recovery, are into the recovery phase, and its time to end individual relief.  Of course, the White House and Senate Republicans declared the House-passed stimulus bill (that focused on unemployment benefits, relief for state/local government, and extending the PPP program) as DOA.  In fact, Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the Senate will not even take up the topic of additional stimulus until at least July 21, after the Congress returns from summer recess.  So, it is very unsure if, when, or what type of additional stimulus we might see anytime soon. That leaves the Fed.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 8,017,847 confirmed cases and 436,125 deaths.  On Monday, the EU reopened its internal borders, albeit under a patchwork of rules and exceptions.  On Sunday the UK reported its lowest daily virus death toll since March, opened stores to the public, and PM Johnson said he may well end social distancing rules on July 4.  However, things are not going as swimmingly in other parts of the world.  In China, a district of Beijing has locked down again after tests at a wholesale market found 49 positives out of 517 people tested (9% positive rate) and now there is a race to test 200,000 other workers in that market who have high-touch, public-facing jobs. India is also seeing a significant spike in cases in consecutive weeks even as reopening continues.

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In the US, we now have 2,162,261 confirmed cases and 117,858 deaths reported to date. On Friday afternoon, the CDC said states and localities may need to reimpose strict measures if cases rise “dramatically.” At the same time, overall, there is a slowing of growth in the number of cases.  For example, former epicenter NY, which was slowest to reopen, is seeing the lowest rate of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths since the beginning of the crisis.  However, 22 states are see increasing rates. This includes record jumps in FL, NC, SC, TX, and CA.  Some states and cities have even paused their reopening plans.   

Overnight, Asian markets were deeply into the red, with South Korea losing 4.76% and Japan down 3.47%.  The best performer was Chinese Shenzhen, which was down only 0.29%. Europe is following suit for the most part, with the three major bourses down 1.30% on average.  However, the minor Belgian and Swiss indices are eking out a green chart so far in the European day.  At 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a significant gap lower of between 1.5% and 2.5% (the exact opposite of Friday morning).

The major economic news for Monday is very limited, with only the NY Empire Mfg. Index (8:30 am) on tap.  However, TTM, JKS, and MPAA report before the open.

It’s early, but as of now, we’re looking another significant gap down as the fear of virus impacts builds.  With the uptrend broken and assuming the gap, we are now 7%-8% off the recent highs, so there is significant technical damage for bulls to overcome. The sky is not falling yet.  We are still 35%-40% above the March lows.  However, this is clearly the toughest test of the rally we’ve seen.  Stay focused on the short-term chart.  As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

Ed

There are no Trade Ideas for today. However, be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members Only App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Respect the bears!

Yesterday we were reminded that no matter how much the government spends in stimulus or the trillions injected by the Central Banks, traders must always respect the bears!  In this incredibly emotional feast or famine market, the daily overnight institutional overnight gaps have become very wearisome.  Unfortunitually it appears to be the new normal, and we should expect the wild volatility to continue as we head toward the uncertainty of the weekend.

Asian markets closed the week lower across the board but managed to recover a substantial amount of the early losses.  European markets are bullish across the board this morning but continue to fluctuate as the attempt to recover from another round of pandemic worries.  US Futures have also seen substantial volatility this morning but continue to point to a sizeable overnight gap up as we grapple with a resurgence of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations.  Buckle up, as it could be another wild rise as we slide into a weekend of unknowns.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have 30 companies reporting quarterly results.  Looking through the list, I can only find one particularly notable report, that being PRTY.

Technically Speaking

Yesterday we were reminded that we must never forget that the bears and always have a plan to protect our capital if they launch an attack.  For some time, there have been clues that the market was extraordinarily overextended, but if you are like me, you’ve grown weary of the overnight institutional gaps.  However, it has become the new normal in this all or nothing, feast or famine market.  Today looks to begin similarly, but this time a substantial overnight gap up.  With coronavirus cases continuing to rise, Arizona announced their hospitals are near capacity. Yesterday’s jobless claims added another 1.5 million unemployed, which is a modest improvement of the prior week but indeed demonstrated just how challenging this economic recovery has become.

Considerable technical damage occurred in the DIA and IWM yesterday as the indexes failed their 200-averages.  The Dow is now less than 850 points away from testing its 50-day morning average, and even with today’s big gap up, we should not ignore the possibility that it might see a test in the near future.  The SPY is in a much better technical situation having closed at it’s 200-average with the big tech firms providing the majority of the price support.  Of course, the QQQ is in the best technical, having only suffered a pullback to test its bullish trend.  As we slide into the weekend, expect a considerable amount of price volatility as traders and investors grapple with the uncertainty of the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Gap Up to Pressure Any Greedy Bears

Fear of a second wave of coronavirus helped the bears take the bull to the woodshed Thursday on what turned out to be the worst day for markets since March.  A 2.5% gap down at the open was followed-up with a steady all-day sell-off with the close near the lows.  The SPY is just below its 200sma, while the DIA gapped clear through it and is halfway to its 50sma.  The QQQ continues to hold its uptrend as it is still above even the 20sma.  On the day, the SPY lost 5.74%, the DIA lost 6.80%, and the QQQ lost 4.95%.  The VXX shot higher to 41.60 and T2122 fell sharply, but remains just inside overbought territory at 82.40.  Bond yields fell sharply as money chased safety, closing at 0.669% and Oil (WTI) fell 8% to $36.36/barrel.

The Fed released data Thursday that showed total US debt (household, corporate, and government) grew by almost 12% in Q1.  It had grown by 3.2% in Q4 of 2019.  The total is now just under $56 trillion.  The largest jump was 18.8% by business, followed by a 14.3% increase from government.  Household debt only grew 3.9% for the quarter.

At the same time, new jobless claims fell again this week to 1.5 million (down from 1.9 million last week).  There have been over 44 million new jobless claims made since the virus hit, but the trend has clearly been getting better in recent weeks.  So, with this week’s significant improvement, it is odd to note that 24 states recorded increases in initial claims.  In the larger context, the continuing claims fell but fell less than expected for the week, down to 21 million.

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On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,622,021 confirmed cases and 424,325 deaths.  The UK, who followed the US lead and delayed lockdown and social distancing, reports its GDP fell 24.5% (year on year) and 20.4% (month to month) in April.  This was significantly worse than the 18.4% month-to-month contraction that was expected.

In the US, we now have 2,089,825 confirmed cases and 116,036 deaths reported to date.  For the sixth time this month, the state of NC has recorded a record number of hospitalizations.  In TX, the city of Houston is close to needing to reverse its recent reopening measures.  Discussion is underway about whether they need to open a temporary hospital at the NRG stadium, which was built in April, but never had to be used. In Nashville TN, the Mayor has decided to delay further opening after a recent rise in cases in the city.  However, in NY state, they have opened up 5 more regions to business with some restrictions such as restaurants only being allowed 50% of normal indoor seating capacity. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but strongly leaning to the downside with only Shenzhen and India on the positive side.  Europe is mixed, but strongly leaning to the upside, with only Russia and Greece in the red so far today.  At 7:30 am, US futures are looking for a major rebound from Thursday’s pummeling, pointing to a gap higher of between 1.5% and 2.5% (the exact opposite of Thursday morning).

The major economic news for Friday is limited to May Imports/Exports (8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Expectations (10 am).  There are no major earnings on the day.

The whiplash appears to want to continue.  It’s early, but as of now, we’re looking at a gap up as big as yesterday’s gap down at the open.  So, Mr. Market seems ready to punish the short-sellers who didn’t take profits at the close Thursday.   And while the uptrend was broken in the large-caps, the QQQ held its channel.  The bulls clearly have significant damage to repair, but a pullback had been long overdue.  So, the sky is not falling and the longer-term trend continues to point higher as of now.  Stay focused on the short-term chart.  Above all don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

Ed

No Trade Ideas for Friday. (It’s payday, think about taking some off the table for the weekend.) However, keep an eye on the trading room and the Members Only App for tickers that come up today. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Near-Zero until 2022

Near-Zero

Gaping up and running ahead of the FOMC announcement, the NASDAQ set new record highs once again.  The committee suggested interest rates would remain near zero until sometime in 2022. Still, after the Chairman’s press conference, the bears made an appearance moving the index’s lower with only the QQQ closing the day with gains.  Sadly, this morning rug is pulling out with the market suddenly concerned with the rising coronavirus infections and hospitalizations around the country. 

Asian markets closed lower across the board in reaction to the FOMC forecast.  European markets are also tumbling this morning by as much as 2.50%.  US Futures are plunging this morning and have worsened in the pre-market, suggesting a substantial decline at the open with more jobless data on the way.  Expect significant price volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday economic calendar, we have short of 30 companies stepping up the earnings reporting podium.  Notable reports include LULU, ADBE, PLCE, PLAY, & PVH.

Technically Speaking

After a choppy beginning to the week as we waited for the FOMC committee decision, it pretty much turned out to be a non-event.  The decided that interest rates would likely remain near 0 until sometime in 2022 and that they will continue appropriate operations to support the economy.  The initial market reaction was bullish, but after the Chairman’s press conference, the bears pushed back, closing the index’s modestly lower.  This morning according to reports, the market is once again suddenly concerned about the second wave of coronavirus with infection rates that have risen the last couple weeks.  There are 9- California counties reporting a spike in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.  Airlines and cruise lines are sharply lower this morning, and not surprisingly, some retailers also see bear activity. 

This morning US Futures point to an ugly gap down of 500 points or more in the Dow.  The big question will be the activity in the NASDAQ giants that have seen remarkable bullishness of late and supplied most of the index’s levity.  Should stocks like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT turn lower, it could a rather harsh pullback could ensue.  However, if the bulls can continue to show their tenacity of last couple weeks, the selling could be quickly absorbed, and price support levels defended.  Hold on tight; it may be a wild morning with a considerable dose of price volatility. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The Fed Delivered But A 2nd Wave Feared

On Wednesday the large-cap pause continued while the techs tried to keep going.  The QQQ gapped up just over 0.75% and ground sideways until the Fed announcements. Meanwhile, the large-caps gapped only slightly, then sold off shortly after the open.  After the FOMC announcements, volatility reigned with large swings in all 3 indices, closing on a down leg.  On the day, the QQQ was up 1.20% (to another all-time high), the SPY was down 0.56%, and the DIA was down 1.07%.  VXX was flat at 31.13 and T2122 gave back a bit, but still remains deep in overbought territory at 90.91.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.736% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $39.06/barrel.

The FOMC seemed to give something to everyone.  The statement promised that rates will remain near zero through at least 2022 (3 years total) and committed to keep on buying assets at the rate of $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month.  They also forecast a 6.5% decline in GDP this year (2020), but a massive bounce-back to a 5% GDP gain in 2021.  On top of this Treas. Sec. Mnuchin said that he backs another stimulus plan.  So, traders got everything they could have hoped for…a Fed backstop, unlimited continued easing, and likely more fiscal stimulus to boot.

After the close, GRUB agreed to be purchased by European company Just Eat Takeaway (this was a big loss for UBER who had also been bidding on GRUB).  Elsewhere, sources told CNBC that BA expects to make the first 737 Max recertification flight by the end of June. SBUX also said it is closing 400 of its North American stores while adding drive-through and carryout-only operations to many of the remaining locations.  In positive news, F says they will return to normal production levels by July 6

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,482,740 confirmed cases and 419,494 deaths.  In India, the spread is getting out of control with major cities’ hospitals out of ICU beds even as they continue to open the economy again.  In China, high-end good sales have rebounded.  For example, Jewelry sales increased by 30% in April and 90% in May compared to the same months in 2019.  Other luxury categories report similar results as the Chinese economy is back to normal. 

In the US, we now have 2,066,611 confirmed cases and 115,140 deaths reported to date.  TX had a third straight day of record coronavirus hospitalizations.  In CA, the 9 most populous counties also reported a spike in cases two weeks after Memorial Day.  The latest data model projections are now forecasting 170,000 US deaths before October (the mean of model ranges of 133k to 290k).  Fear of this resurgence seems to be driving futures today and recoloring the Fed announcements and statements from Wednesday.   

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red all across the board.  The same is true in Europe, where there is no green to be seen in any of the bourses at this point in their day.  At 7:30 am, US futures are going to follow the rest of the world, pointing to a gap down of between 1.5% and 2.5%.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to May Core PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports on the day are limited to ADBE, LULU, PLAY, and PVH all after the close.

It looks like Mr. Market is going to punish those who got too bullish at the open.  However, the bulls have been on a tear for weeks now and as we said, a pullback has been due.  So, the sky is not falling and the trend continues to point higher as of now.  Stay focused on the short-term chart and keep locking in those profits and moving stops as you go.  As always, above all don’t chase or predict.

Ed

Because of the gap down today we will be posting the Trade Ideas in the trading room and on the Members Only App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FOMC Announcement

FOMC Announcement

Today the market has a lot to digest on the economic calendar with the FOMC announcement and the follow Powell press conference.  The bulls and bears seesawed back and forth in the overnight session and seem to be setting up for a cautious open as we wait for the Fed.  Choppy light volume price action is not uncommon ahead of the announcement, but after anything is possible. 

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly modestly lower as inflation data missed expectations.  European markets are slightly smaller across the board this morning as they wait on the US Central Bank decision.  US Futures point to a relatively flat open with Mortgage Applications spiking 13%, earnings reports, and several potential market-moving reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Wednesday earnings calendar, we have 36 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include CHS, DAKT, GES, & RRGB.

Technically Speaking

A mixed set of results yesterday as the Dow broke a 7-day winning streak but he NASDAQ reached out to 10,000 for the first time in history.  Big international tech led the way higher with very few other companies finding the energy to move.  With giants such as AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, FB, and MSFT weighted so heavily in three out of the four major indexes, we no longer have an accurate reflection of what the majority of the stocks are doing.  On the virus front, California is reporting hospitalizations are going up again just one day after Texas hit a new record high of COVID-19 admissions.  Dr. Fauci, the White House health advisor, said on Tuesday that the pandemic in the US is not over. Let’s hope this is not a new trend because another round of restrictions could prove devastating to businesses trying to recover. 

Today the market will have plenty of economic data to digest with reports on CPI, Petroleum Status, and of course, the FOMC decision with the Chairman press conference.  Futures seesawed in the overnight session currently pointing to a flat open as we wait for Jerome Powell to deliver the committee insights into the economy.  It’s relatively common to have light choppy, low volume price action ahead of the announcement, and anything is possible after the fact as the market reacts.  The T2122 indicator continues to suggest an enormously extended market condition, but trillions of dollars pumped into the markets the bears seem to have lost their teeth.  However, we should always keep an eye on price action because a profit-taking pullback could begin at any time.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Waiting on Fed Assurance?

Markets did gap lower at the open, but bears could not get any follow-through as markets closed inside the previous candle in the large-caps.  Meanwhile, the bulls kept running (like the bears didn’t even exist) in the QQQ. The tech names were led by new all-time high closes from AMZN, AAPL, FB, and MSFT.  On the day the SPY closed down 0.70%, the DIA down 1.05%, and the QQQ up 0.72% to another all-time high.  The VXX gained almost 5% to 31.27 and the T2122 dipped very slightly to 98.21.  10-yr. bond yields fell to 0.82% and Oil (WTI) resumed its rally, climbing to $38.73/barrel. 

The FOMC announcements, statements, and press conference will be key today.  The Fed skipped its normal forecasts in March.  So, today will be the first look into their revised projections of where the economy and interest rates are headed for the remainder of the year and into 2021. (They last published forecasts in late 2019.)  Chairman Powell’s statement will also be scrutinized word-by-word as some traders look for bad news (to get more stimulus) and others hope for reassurance that everything will soon be back to normal.

With the Fed taking center stage today, Asian Central Banks got a reprieve.  Emerging market central banks had been under intense pressure with fund outflows and a lack of trickle-down help from China hurting their economies.  (The Chinese People’s Bank of China resisted major stimulus plans of the kind the Fed, ECB, and BOJ all undertook.)  However, reports released today say a recent reversal of funds flow (back to seeking risk), especially in South Korea and Thailand, has caused Asian currencies to stabilize and given those Central Bankers the luxury to wait on the Fed to lead the way.

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,343,977 confirmed cases and 414,129 deaths.  In South America, Peru surpassed 203,000 confirmed cases (significant for a country with less than one-tenth the population of the US).  In Brazil, a Justice on the Supreme Court has ruled the government must publish its coronavirus data (despite their President’s decision to stop publishing it).  As a result, Brazil added 33,000 cases to their previous count.  In France, the govt. has announced a $17 billion bailout package for its airline industry, with about a quarter of that going to the national carrier Air France. 

In the US, we now have 2,045,741 confirmed cases and 114,151 deaths reported to date.  NYC reported a record low positive test rate Tuesday, with only 1% of all tests processed coming back positive.  However, CA reports a surge in hospitalizations and confirmed cases in counties where just under half the state’s population reside. Elsewhere, AMZN announced plans to open their own testing labs to avoid delays when they implement their plan to test all employees every 2 weeks. (A move that comes in response to employee push-back over lax testing).   

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with all the indices not far from the flat line.  However European stocks are lower across the board again so far today.  At 7:30 am, US futures are mixed and closer to flat then has been normal recently.  The large-caps are just in the red while the NASDAQ is looking to a half percent gap higher again. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is May Core CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), May Federal Budget Balance, Fed Interest Rate Projections, FOMC Economic Forecast, FOMC Rate Decision, and FOMC Statement (all at 2 pm), and the FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm).  The only major earnings reports on the day are CHS, GES, RRGB, and UNFI before the open.

The bulls have been on a tear for weeks now.  However, in the large-caps we may see a continuation of the pause waiting on more reassurance from the FOMC.  That said, it does not look like the NASDAQ bulls are ready to slow down yet.   With the Fed on tap this afternoon, I would not be surprised by a drift waiting on the statement or presser. Don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge, but remember we are also very extended and overdue for a rest.  So, stay focused on the short-term chart and lock in those profits as you go.  As always, above all don’t chase or predict.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: CHWY, ZS, MS, USO, BAC, WDC, KO, WFC, EPD, BHC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Infection rate increases.

Infection

After a late-session bullish run, the US Futures began to sell off, and the news cycle headlines shifted to something a bit more bearish.  A new record daily high in worldwide virus infections, Texas with a record number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, the US officially in recession and headlines of a cold war with China.  Things that make you say, hmmm?  Those the entered late into the run could feel a bit of pain this morning with yet another morning institutional gap.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, but European markets are decidedly bearish this morning.  US Futures point to a Dow gap down around 300 points ahead of earnings and the kickoff to the 2-FOMC meeting.  Expect an extra dose of price volatility at the open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 39 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include AMC, CHWY, CONN, FIVE, GME, HDS, MOV, SIG, VRNT.

Technically Speaking

Almost immediately after the market closed on Monday, the US Futures began to a selloff, and the news shifted to bearish headlines.  We learned we are officially in a recession, that Texas now has a record number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, and the world infections hit a new all-time high.  According to reports, the US and China entered an economic cold war.  China has also invoked the anger of Australia, Canada, Germany, Netherlands, and Sweden in what’s being called “Wolf Warrior diplomacy.”  Dow Futures were down about 350 points overnight, but the typical morning pump has begun lifting them well off the lows.  I suspect we will see a bit more 2-sided price action increasing the price volatility this morning.  The wild card in the mix is the beginning of the FOMC meeting and what we might learn on Wednesday about the committee’s historic buying programs.

In the last 7-market sessions, the Dow has run up nearly 2500, the SP-500 more than 225 and NASDAQ in a 9-day bull run is up a whopping 850 points.  Such an enthusiastic bulls run can sometimes lead to a painful pullback as if the carpet is pulled out from underneath, especially for those that entered trades late in the rally.  The indexes are so extended that a 50% pullback in the Dow, about 1250 points, would remain in a bullish trend.  I am in no way suggesting that will occur!  I am only pointing out the potential danger that may exist in such an extended condition.  Of course, the new normal is the institutional overnight gap that may leave many retail traders squealing from the feeling.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A Pause Before the Fed Statement?

Markets gapped higher and, despite a little morning profit-taking, rose steadily all day with a close very near the highs.  The bulls seem very optimistic about reopening and economic recovery.  On the day, SPY gained 1.21%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 0.78% (to another all-time high).  Interestingly, the VXX also gained slightly to 29.82, and T2122 also squeezed-out another gain to 99.57.  The 10-year bond yield fell a bit to 0.879% and Oil (WTI) also stepped back to $38.23/barrel. 

At the end of the day, it was announced that the Fed is expanding its “Main Street” program allowing for both larger and smaller loans as well as increasing the repayment term to 5 years on loans.  This news came as it was also confirmed that the US had entered a recession in February, as the economy led the government by a month in recognizing the importance of the pandemic.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,219,187 confirmed cases and 409,108 deaths.  The world saw a record number of new cases in a day, with over 136,000 reported Sunday.  In Israel, they have stopped reopening as they have seen a doubling of the new case rate in the last week coupled with a steep increase in deaths.   However, the situation in places like Canada is improving, allowing them to ease border restrictions with the US, though still requiring a 14-day quarantine for incoming travelers.

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In the US, we now have 2,026,597 confirmed cases and 113,061 deaths reported to date.  FL and TX both reported big jumps in new cases this last week (46% and 50%).  However, at least in FL, there was also an increase in testing which may help explain it away.  However, in TX it is an increase in positive tests (up to over 7.5% of tests done in the state coming back positive) that is the cause.  This resulted in a record number of hospitalizations in the state.  Still, we are not seeing a medical system overload at this point as the state has 1,600 open ICU beds and over 5,800 ventilators available.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China, Hong Kong, Australia, and South Korea higher.  However, Japan, India, Singapore, and Thailand led the others lower.   European stocks are lower across the board so far today.  At 7:30 am, US futures are also lower, pointing to a gap down of about one percent in the large caps and half a percent in the NASDAQ.  

The only major economic news for Tuesday is April JOLTs (10 am).  Earnings reports are also lite with BF.B, CONN, GCO, HDS, SIG, and TIF reporting before the open.  Then AMC, CHWY, FIVE, GME, and VRNT report after the close.

The bulls have been running rampant, but futures are telling us that traders are taking some profits this morning.  With no economic news on tap to stir the pot and waiting on the Fed statement Wednesday, markets may drift today.  Don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge, but remember we are well overdue for a pause or pullback in this swing.  So, stay focused on the short-term chart and lock in those profits as you go.  Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: OGI, VFF, AGS, TLRY, ZS, SMSI, NKE, HD, SQ, PTE, ASNA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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Another Gap Up

Another Gap Up

Even after last week’s run that lifted the Dow more than 2000 points, the US Futures point to a gap up open led by rallies oil, airlines, and cruise lines.  Even as US cases of the virus topped 2 million, the death toll passed 110,000 and, protests keep business shuttered; the NASDAQ set new record highs with a surprise jobs number.  As there is no president for such a strong rally, what comes next is anyone’s guess.  Just stay focused on price action watching for the clues of profit-taking if a pullback begins.

Asian markets closed up across the board in reaction to rising oil prices.  European markets traded mixed this morning with worries about pandemic restrictions and protests that grew violent over the weekend.  The US markets are by far the most bullish of current world markets, pointing to a substantial gap up once again.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have a light day with just 24 companies reporting.  Notable reports include CASY & SFIX.

Technically Speaking

After last week’s remarkable rally, it would be reasonable to expect a little rest or pullback in the market considering the Dow increased by more than 2000 points.  In reaction to the better than expected jobs report, the DIA and the IWM lept well above its 200-day moving averages for the first time since February while the QQQ set new record highs.  As world economies begin to reopen Coronavirus cases top 7 million with US cases now over 2 million and a death toll of over 112,000.  The UK has implemented a  mandatory 14-day quarantine on all that travel into the area; however, British Airways is threatening lawsuits.  In reaction to the widespread protesting, the Democrats plan to propose new police procedures and accountability rules.  The majority fo the Minneapolis city council has is backing the idea of disbanding the police force entirely. 

There is no president in history for this remarkable market rally.  The T2122 indicator appears pinned against the ceiling suggesting an extreme short-term overextension.  That said, the US futures point to another gap up open with airlines and curse lines leading the way.  Oil is surging this morning after OPEC decided to extend the historic production cuts through the summer, which is also helping to boost the futures this morning.  What comes next is anyone’s guess, so stay focused on price action and be prepared for the possibility of profit-taking if the bears finally decide to make an appearance. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug