The bears make a rare appearance leaving behind some concerning candle patterns, but I suspect they will find it very difficult to gain much momentum with a possible record high in the SP-500 so close at hand. Remember bearish candle pattern requires follow-through to be valid, and this morning the bulls are pushing hard in the futures to punish traders that took early short positions. Institutions want that new record headline, and it seems unlikely they will give up this close to making it happen.
Asian markets had mixed but mostly bullish results during the night, and European markets whip around mixed this morning over the possible return of the virus. US point to a substantial overnight reversal of yesterday’s bearish close with the Dow expected to gap up more than 225 points.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump Day earnings calendar, we have 87 companies stepping up to reports quarterly results. Notable reports include LMND, CSCO, EAT, CHU, ENS, FOSL, GMAB, YY, JMIA, LYFT, PING, SDC, SPTN, TCEHY, VFF, WPM, & ZTO.
News & Technical’s
Presidential candidate Joe Biden has chosen California Senator Kamala Harris for his running mate this fall. If Biden wins in the fall, he will be the oldest elected president at 78 possible, putting Harris teed-up for a run for the top job after one term. President Trump announced a deal Moderna of 100 for 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine as Russia comes under considerable criticism for rushing the widespread use of a vaccine after test just 100 individuals. As a result of COVID economic impacts, the UK is now in recession with a record economic plunge over 20%. Yesterday Florida reported a record 276 death caused by the virus on Tuesday. A grim reminder we have a long way to go in our battle with the disease. Congress remains deadlocked on the next stimulus bill continuing to point fingers at one another to pass the blame for the delay.
Yesterday’s price action left a few questions for the traders to ponder as the bears made a rare appearance in the afternoon session to snap 8-straight days of a market rally. They left behind concerning candlestick pattern, but this morning the bulls are fired up again, pointing to a substantial gap up. I think it’s improbable the bears will have a chance to gain much momentum with the SPY so close to setting a new record high. In-fact the selling yesterday may have picked up just enough short interest to pull off a quick short squeeze to help secure that new record high headline. That said, once the new record is achieved, a rest or pullback in the market is not out of the question. Stay focused, and flexible.
Markets gapped up four-tenths of a percent on hopes from Russia’s approval and claim it has a safe and effective vaccine. Stocks then rode the roller-coaster until mid-afternoon. However, at 2 pm a steep selloff started and ran all the way into the close. It is possible a story that no stimulus package was imminent or perhaps an early leak prior to the announcement that Former-VP Biden selected Senator Kamal Harris as his running mate was the cause. (Personally, I think it was the Big-10 canceling fall football that sank spirits.)
Regardless of the cause of the late selloff, of the 3 major indices, only the QQQ broke its uptrend. However, SPY closed down 0.83%, DIA down 0.34%, and QQQ down 1.89% as a rotation from the tech high-fliers into recovery economy tickers continued even during the selloff. VXX was up to 36.95 and T2122 fell a touch to 93.19 (still deep in the overbought territory). Oil (WTI) was down slightly to $41.68/barrel and 10-year bond yields rose strongly to 0.64%.
After the close, TSLA announced a 5-for-1 stock split for stockholders as of August 21. During the day BA reported 43 more plane orders were cancelled in July (bringing the total to 836 cancelled so far this year). However, that significant decrease needs to be weighed against the fact the company still has almost a 4,500-plane production backlog to work through.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,306,851 confirmed cases and 167,761 deaths. New cases for Tuesday were at 54,519, which is slightly under the 7-day average. However, the 1,504 deaths for the day were well above the average. After the close, the President announced the US had reached a deal with MRNA to buy 100 million doses of their experimental vaccine for $1.53 billion. The state of FL reported a record jump in virus deaths on the day (increasing almost 3x from Monday). Interestingly, that state’s average daily new cases were down 38%, but tests done per day dropped an even larger 46% in the last two weeks (likely partially due to hurricane Isaias).
Globally, the number of cases rose above 20 million as it reached 20,553,328 confirmed cases and 746,652 deaths. The UK reported that its economy contracted 20.4% in Q2. This is right in line with analyst expectations following a small contraction in Q1. However, it does put them technically into a recession. Germany saw a new spike as they reported over 1,000 new cases Tuesday. While that is less than 2% of the US cases, bear in mind that they also only have 25% of the US population.
Overnight, once again Asian markets were mixed. Hong Kong and Thailand were the only decent size gainers. Meanwhile, China and New Zealand led the losers. The rest of the countries delivered smaller moves spread around break-even. In Europe, bourses are technically mixed but lean heavily toward the green. The DAX is just on the red side of flat while Sweden and Denmark are showing half-percent loses. Elsewhere we see a healthy green numbers, led by the FTSE being up 1.1%. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a gap higher. Today the gaps will be less varied with the SPY looking at +0.74%, the QQQ at +0.89%, and the DIA at +0.93%.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes July CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), July Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and 3 Fed speakers (Rosengren at 10 am, Kaplan at 11 am, and Daly at 3 pm). Major earnings are limited to AIT, APG, and PFGC before the open. Then after the close CACI, CSCO, and SPTN report.
The large-caps put in their first black candle since July 28 yesterday, following the QQQ which put in its 3rd in a row. Still, as mentioned above, the trend remains bullish in the large-caps and the QQQ barely broke its own. The point is that it is hard to call Tuesday’s late selloff a trend break. So, all we can do is keep an eye on it and not go too long or short until we get more information. Stick to those trading rules and execute with discipline. Don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take your profits along the way. Remember, our job is to achieve trade goals consistently, not to hit the lottery.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CME, QCOM, SQ, SCHW, MA, STNE, PLNT, V, FTV, W. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Hopeful vaccine news out of Russia is inspiring the bulls for a gap up open this morning that may well set a new record high in the SP-500. Although Congress continues the battle of soundbites and rhetoric, there is still significant hope they will soon come to an agreement on more stimulus. How this might affect the Presidential executive orders is unclear but slowing the debit spending no longer the issue. It’s the battle of who’s willing to spend the most.
Asian markets closed missed but mostly higher overnight with Hong Kong leading the way up 2.11%. European markets are sharply higher across the board up to more than 2.5% on recovery hopes. US Futures indicate a very bullish gap up open with the SP-500 nearing a new record high ahead of earnings and PPI data.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Tuesday Earnings Calendar, we have a decline, with 88 companies stepping up to report. Notable reports include NIO, GOOS, CSPR, HUYA, IHG, LITE, MAC, MLCO, RRGB, SFTBY, SYY, & VIAV.
News & Technical’s
Yesterday’s bullish move left the SP-500 less than 1% from new record highs. Airlines reported that travel is increasing, providing a big lift to the sector, including a BA which rallied more than 5.5%. Heavy equipment manufacturers DE, CAT, and CMI buying surged yesterday with energy and financial sectors also gaining ground. During the night, Russia claims the development of the world’s first coronavirus vaccine lifting the futures markets sharply higher this morning. Of course, a lot of testing will have to is required before the acceptance of a new vaccine here in the US, but with global cases topping, 20 million hope is high. New US sanctions against Chinese government officials yesterday once again ratchet up tensions between the countries, adding uncertainty to global banks. As MSFT works to buy TikTok, the French government opens an investigation into privacy concerns of the popular social media App.
With the bulls solidly in control and the futures pointing to a bullish gap open, the SP-500 is likely to reach a new record high. Traders should be careful not to chase stocks already well within a bullish run with the fear of missing out. Remember, this will be the 8th straight day of gains, increasing the odds of a market rest or pullback at any time. The T2122 indicator this buying wave is very stretched, and a new record high could be the catalyst that brings out some profit-takers. Having said that, we should rule out the possibility that Congressional Stimulus news could provide another shot of energy for the bulls. Stay focused, flexible, and plan your trading carefully.
Markets opened flat, rode the roller-coaster all morning, and then were calm all afternoon. There was what appears to be a rotation underway, out of the mega-cap FAANG stocks that have led the rally since March and into the “big recovered economy” stocks such as Industrials and Energy. On the day SPY was up 0.30%, QQQ was down 0.43%, and DIA was up 1.28% (on that rotation). VXX fell once again to 25.75 and T2122 rose slightly to 97.34, deeper into the overbought territory. 10-year Bond yields rose to 0.58% and Oil (WTI) rose to $41.99/barrel.
The President’s executive orders from Saturday seemed to be a non-story on Monday. Uncertainty, likely legal challenges, and the limited nature of the orders made the focus stay on a bi-partisan deal. Treasury Sec. Mnuchin said the White House was willing to put more money on the table, but reportedly made no new offers. Democrats have not made another offer either after their “meet in the middle” $2 trillion deal rejected Friday. Both sides said over the weekend (and again Monday) that they are ready to negotiate, but the sides have also not talked since Friday according to Mnuchin.
In related news, President Trump floated that he is again seriously considering doing a Capital Gains tax cut. As with the Payroll Tax and to be charitable, it is unclear if he has the legal authority to cut taxes by himself. While he claimed this move would create a lot of jobs via reinvestment, he reportedly also decided against the action a year ago because it would not help the working class enough. (For example, the top 1% of taxpayers had over 75% of the long-term capital gains last year per the IRS report.) However, it is another stimulus idea under consideration.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,251,997 confirmed cases and 166,201 deaths. In good news, for the first time in well over a month, there are less than 50,000 virus hospitalizations in the country. This comes as the 7-day average of both new confirmed cases and deaths have leveled off after the very recent pullback. So, the front line of the fight is getting at least a little respite.
Globally, the number of cases rose above 20 million as it reached 20,281,373 confirmed cases and 739,770 deaths. In the early hours today, President Putin claimed their country had given regulatory approval for a Russian vaccine that had proven safe and effective. In a jab at the west, they named this vaccine “Sputnik V” and Putin said they had ordered a billion doses for global distribution. Markets popped on the news, despite widespread skepticism about the truth and science behind the claim. Whether true or not, the news did give hope for the vaccine development underway in the UK and US.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. China and Taiwan led the losers this time, while Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea led gainers. However, in Europe markets are strongly green across the board on Russia-prompted vaccine hopes. The FTSE is up 2.5%, the DAX up 2.6%, and the CAC up 2.7% so far today. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a varying gap higher. The DIA implied open is up 1%, the SPY up 0.62%, and the QQQ up 0.39% seemingly reinforcing the rotation from high-flying tech into mainstream recovery economy names.
The only major economic news for Tuesday is July PPI (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Daly at noon). Major earnings are also very limited to BR, SYY, and YPF before the open. There are no major earnings reports after the close.
Markets continue their bullish march. With no major economic news and high spirits from the Russian vaccine approval, we may well see more upside run. However, beware that we are over-extended and that it appears a controlled (not desperate selling or buying, just methodical movement from one group to another) rotation is ongoing. So, don’t fight the trend, but remain aware that another pause or swing to the downside may come soon. Keep your discipline and mind those trading rules. You put them in place for a reason (to help control emotion and avoid mistakes). As always, follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and take your profits along the way. Remember, we just need to make our goals consistently. We don’t have to swing for massive gains on any one trade.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PLAY, HWM, DFS, NBL, FTI, F, XLE, TSN, WMT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With stimulus money once again flowing with the stroke of the Presidential pen, the path to record highs in the SP-500 is clear for the bulls for an easy headline. Although we have several significant reports on the economic calendar this week, today is light, allowing earnings news and politics to drive the day. While a new record in the SP-500 seems likely soon, traders should watch for possible profit-taking that could begin at any time having moved up 7-days in a row.
Asian markets closed Monday mixed but mostly lower remaining cautious with the rising tensions between the US and China. However, European indexes are green across the board this morning, and US futures have recovered from overnight lows suggesting a modestly bullish open to begin the week.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Although the 3rd quarter earnings season starts slowing this week, Monday’s calendar remains quite busy with more than 200 companies reporting. Notable reports include ANGI, GOLD, CGC, CDR, SCOR, CEIX, DUK, AGM, GOGO, HVT, IAC, INO, IPAR, JCOM, MAR, MELI, OXY, ON, PPL, APTS, RCL, SEAS, SPG, TME, TLRY, & WKHS.
New & Technical’s
With the stroke of a pen, the President signs a series of executive orders extending coronavirus relief through the end of the year after Congress failed to reach an agreement on the stimulus bill. Those unemployed will receive $400 in additional financial support down from the $600 that lapsed over a week ago. However, it requires the State to come up with $100 of the $400 benefit, and it’s unclear if they can do so. The initial market reaction to this action showed mixed results, but the additional deficit spending has gold and silver futures flying high this morning. Some analysts say gold could ready $4000 an ounce! With the election less than 100 days away, the President also raised tariffs on aluminum reigniting the trade war with Canada, and of course, Canada retaliated in kind. This weekend the US reached another grim milestone, topping 5 million coronavirus cases. Daily infection rates have begun to level off in Florida, Texas, and California, with some mid-west, states becoming a concern as their numbers surge.
With the SP-500 just over 1% from new record highs and the stimulus money flowing again, I suspect the path is clear for the bulls to push forward. Although the index has moved higher seven sessions in a row, I can’t imagine institutions failing to reach that out for that record-high headline. However, traders will also have to stay focused on the possible profit-taking that could begin at any time. With a light day on the economic calendar, earnings results and political spin cycle are the likely drivers for today.
Markets gapped down Friday on Trade War fears (China and Canada) and perhaps second thoughts on good July Payrolls number (better than expected but less than half of the June increase). After a roller-coaster day markets ended on an upswing. The SPY closed up 0.07%, the DIA up 0.26%, and QQQ faired worst at down 1.15%. VXX fell again to 26.53 and the T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) closed up deep into the overbought territory at 96.20. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.566% and oil (WTI) was down to $41.60/barrel.
Stimulus talks broke down Friday. The White House rejected an offer from Democrats, saying it wasn’t actually a $1.5 trillion reduction (to $2 trillion) and the administration could not see spending more than about $1 trillion. Then on Saturday the President issued executive orders and memorandum that will at least possibly restart an Enhanced Unemployment program ($300 of federal funds, if states first put up $100 per week). He also deferred Payroll Tax collection through December, deferred federal Student loan payments (again through December), and told the HHS to continue to review evictions for “reasonableness”). The impact and timing of these actions is unclear and legal challenges are possible (likely?) for some of the fiats. Sunday, the President said he is already considering revising the Enhanced Unemployment order to just be $300/week (avoiding a state mandate).
Over the weekend, CNBC also reported that BRK repurchased over $5.1 billion of its own stock in May and June. This was a record amount for the company and over twice that they had bought back in the same period the year prior. However, this should be seen in the context of BRK having a record of $146 billion in cash on hand. The reason this is of note is that Warren Buffett has famously said buybacks are a sign the company cannot find anything better to do with their money. So, this may be a tangible indication BRK feels stocks the stock market is way over-priced…or perhaps that their own stock is extremely underpriced.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,199,524 confirmed cases and 165,617 deaths. The good news that even ignoring habitually under-reported weekend numbers, the averages of new cases are flattening again. The same appears to be true (in a lagging sense) of deaths, although the 7-day average is still over 1,000 per day. Over the weekend, 26 states saw rising infection rates, but in good news, 18 states also saw decreasing hospitalization rates. The bad news is that a survey found that one-third of Americans say they won’t take a vaccine if/when available and another 24% are unsure whether they will. This means the effectiveness in a herd immunity sense would be dramatically lessened if over half the population were to refuse a vaccine.
Globally, the number of cases rose above 20 million as it reached 20,046,642 confirmed cases and 734,525 deaths. A survey of German businesses found that they expect virus restrictions to last until at least April. This comes as new cases have picked up in Germany, France, Spain, etc. In Asia, Japan continues to see an uptick, and Australia’s second-largest state reported a record number of cases and deaths on Monday.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but lean to the green side. China, South Korea and Australia were the winners, with Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore leading the losers. In Europe markets are leaning more to the green side. However, the moves are less than half a percent so far in their day. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are flat with the 3 major indices straddling and close to the break-even line from Friday.
The only major economic news for Monday is June JOLTS (10 am). Major earnings include DUK, GOLD, MAR, MELI, ON, and PARR before the open. Then after the close, BKD, CNXN, IFF, NGL, NTR, OXY, SPG, and TME report.
Markets continue to be relentlessly bullish, but at least the techs are looking a little tired and everything is extended. The truth is all 3 indices could use a little rest. So, don’t fight the trend, but remain aware that another pause or swing to the downside may come soon. Stick to those trading rules and execute them with discipline. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take profits along the way. Remember, our job is to achieve trade goals consistently, not hit massive winners.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: UNM, DFS, MS, XLU, JCI, SLB, NKE, FEYE, PM, HAL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
All eyes are on the Employment Situation number and rightfully so. A lot is riding on this number with estimates that range for 0 to 3 million jobs created. Although futures are currently pointing to a bearish open, anything is possible after the number releases an hour before the market open. An executive order banning all transactions in 45 with WeChat and TikTok is increasing tensions with China, and Congress left Washington for a week without a deal on stimulus, adding a bit more uncertainty as we slide into the weekend.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board last night in reaction to the rising tensions. European markets are choppy and flat this morning as they monitor jobs news and US-China relations. With a lot at stake as the US, market prices at or near record highs, anything is possible at the open as we react to the data. Fasten your seat belt and prepare for wild price action as we head into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a lighter day, with 83 companies stepping up to report. Notable reports include KIM, MGA, VTR, & VIRT.
News and Technical’s
Another day of big tech buying pushing the NASDAQ to another record high topping the 11,000 level for the first time. The SPY is now less than 1.3 percent away from new record highs, and a lot will depend on the significant Employment Situation number at 8:30 AM eastern today. The estimates range between 0 jobs gained last month to 3 million with a consensus estimate of 1.4. Obviously, at the current elevation of the market, this number has the potential of creating considerable price volatility before the open. Congress adjourned and went home for a week without a deal on the heavily anticipated stimulus bill, with both sides blaming each other for the delay. Senator Sanders introduced a new bill called Make the Billionaires Pay Act. If passed, it will require the richest in the country fork over hundreds of billions to the government with the intent of funding health care for Americans for the next year. Tensions between the US and China continue to grow after the President signed an executive order banning transactions with WeChat and TikTok. The order takes effect in 45 days, causing the shares of Tencent (TCEHY) to drop sharply. There is no news yet of possible China retaliation.
The technicals of the index charts remain very bullish with nothing but very high prices to hint of possible profit-taking could start at any time. A lot is riding on the Employment Situation number. Futures are weak this morning as we wait for the report, but anything is possible at the market open. Buckle up; it could be a bumpy ride as we head into the weekend.
Markets opened flat and ground sideways until noon. However, FB and AAPL led markets higher as the bulls stepped in again to put together a rally all afternoon. On the day, QQQ was up 1.32% (another all-time high close), SPY up 0.67%, and DIA up 0.70%. VXX fell again as there was no fear to be seen in markets, closing at 26.74 and T2122 fell back to 87.72, which is still in overbought territory. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.538% and Oil (WTI) was off slightly to $41.98/barrel. Gold once again closed at an all-time high of $2,074.80/oz.
President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from Canada again (a year after they were dropped and one month after the USMCA pact went into effect). Canada responded by threatening retaliatory tariffs on US goods according to Reuters. To go along with his theme of nationalism and “protecting us from foreigners,” the President also banned US firms from doing business with the Chinese companies behind the TikTok and WeChat apps. Byte Dance (owner of TikTok) has threatened legal action over the ban and had already been in talks to sell to MSFT for over a week. There was no mention of what made this ban urgent now, when less than a week ago the President said if TikTok was sold to MSFT by Sept. 15 it could avoid the ban.
The other economic news out of Washington was the stimulus deal. Both Republican and Democrat negotiators claimed more progress was made in talks, but that the sides remain far apart. President Trump sought to pressure the negotiations by again making the threat to take Executive Orders to do the portions he likes. (This renewed threat may have led to or helped the afternoon rally. I’m just not sure of the timing on his comments vs. the rally.) It remains unclear exactly what measures he has the legal right to do. However, he’s shown a tendency in the past to issue orders and make opponents challenge them in court where legal procedures can be used to render challenges irrelevant due to timing. Among the possibilities are a so-called Payroll Tax Holiday (although it is unclear if this would only be a postponement since he cannot rewrite the tax code by fiat). The other thing mentioned is an extension of the moratorium on evictions.
In the Real Estate Sector, mortgage rates fell again to another record low, the eighth record low this year. Oddly, at the same time a survey by the National Assn. of Homebuilders found that housing is still less affordable than it has been for over 18 months. (That claim is based on the percent of homes sold to people who qualify for loans who have an income at or below the US median. In other words, tighter lending standards mean fewer “average Americans” qualify to buy a home.) In a related story, CNBC also reported that 32% of Americans had missed mortgage payments as of July 31.
On the virus front, in the US, we went over 5 million cases as the numbers show we now have 5,032,805 confirmed cases and 162,812 deaths. On the day, we saw over 58,600 new cases and over 1,200 deaths (still above the 7-day average). TX saw its positive test rate climb to a tad more than 17% Thursday, just shy of the mid-July peak. Several other states instituted new or extended their mask mandates.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 19,293,179 confirmed cases and 718,326 deaths. In Asia, India reported a record number of new cases as the (15% more than its previous high). In Europe, for the second day in a row, Germany saw the largest number of new cases since early May. Spain and France have also reached their highest 7-day average of new cases since April.
Overnight, Asian markets were in the red across the board, with the lone exception of South Korea which managed a gain of 0.39%. The key driver was the trade war news as the US took the actions described above. However, in Europe markets are more mixed and very near flat across the board. The FTSE is “up” 0.02%, the DAX up 0.23%, and the CAC down 0.26%. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are flat, all 3 major indices are pointing to a down open as the futures sit at -0.38% in all 3 major indices.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am). However, obviously July Non-farm Payrolls is a big one and is under close scrutiny by markets. Major earnings include DISH, IEP, MGA, UFS, and VTR all before the open. There are no major earnings after the close.
Markets remain unrelentingly bullish and have made quite a nice run this week. However, by most counts, markets are again extended. Still, this most recent surge has come in a more orderly action (fewer huge gaps and whipsaw candles). And that sort of price action tends to allow moves to last longer. So, don’t fight the trend, but remain aware that another pause or swing to the downside may come soon.
Stick to those trading rules and execute with discipline. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take profits along the way. Remember, a trader’s job is to consistently achieve goals and build their account. Also bear in mind this is Friday…so lock in some profits ahead of the weekend news cycles.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PM, PENN, AES, ABT, KO, FAST, NKE, MCD. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Fueled by Fed, vaccine, and stimulus hopes the market shrugged off the very disappointing private payrolls numbers as the Dow surged more than 370 points, and the SP-500 closed only 2% below new record highs. Today we face another big day of news-driven price action with more than 400 earnings reports and Jobless Claims. As this rally stretches-out, remember profit-taking could begin at any time, so stay focused. Although weak, the bears still exist, so be careful not to be lulled into complacency.
Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight, and European indexes are modestly lower across the board after the Bank of England holds rates steady. US Futures have pulled back from overnight highs as we wait on earnings and jobless data before the open. It’s been a wild bullish party every day this week. The question will the party go on, or will the hangover begin soon?
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we now have more than 400 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include AL, AEP, APLE, BLL, BHC, BDX, BKNG, CAH, CUBE, DBX, FSLR, FLIR, FLO, GCI, GPRO, GWPH, HL, ILMN, IRM, KTB, MAIN, MELI, MUR, MYL, NWSA, NLOK, NCLH, PZZA, PLUG, POST, RMAX, QSR, STMP, TMUS, TM, TTD, TRIP, VIAC, WIX, YELP, & ZTS.
News & Technical’s
Even with a very disappointing ADP, private payrolls number, the market continues to rally energetically as if jobs no longer matter in the economy. With the Dow closing up 373 points and SP-500 only 2% from new record highs the VIX struggles to decline, and the Absolute Breadth Index displays a remarkable divergence to the bullish price action. How much longer this condition can continue to exist is anyone’s guess, but one thing for sure, the bulls continue to stampede higher with little to no regard for valuation. Keep an eye on AAPL as it nears a 2 Trillion market cap accounting for a full 6.5% of the entire SP-500. After another day of wrangling, Congress remains deadlocked on the next Stimulus plan. Some have suggested a Friday deadline to get to an agreement, and the President has promised an executive order should they fail. Gold and Silver continue to rally sharply as the debasement of the US dollar continues, and worry of substantial future inflation grows.
Today we will get the latest reading on Jobless Claims with consensus estimates looking for a slight rise in applicants this week. However, whatever the number is, I’m not sure it will matter as the market continues to ride the massive wave newly printed money. As you plan your day, remember we will get the Employment Situation number before the market opens on Friday. Consensus suggests an improvement in the unemployment rate of 11.1% last month to 10.5%. Even with the improvement, it isn’t easy to correlate the current market valuation with such a high level of unemployment. As this multi-day rally stretches-out, stay vigilant to price action watching for the possibility that profit-taking could begin at any time.
Markets gapped modestly higher Wednesday on a DIS beat of massively reduced expectations and were held back by a huge miss in new ADP July payrolls and the lack of progress on a stimulus package deal. The SPY and QQQ chopped sideways the whole day, but DIA had a rally on the back of DIS and BA (after GOP Senators proposed $25 billion in airline industry aid. On the day DIA was up 1.34%, SPY up 0.60%, and QQQ up 0.25%. The VXX fell 2% to 27.04 and T2122 rose higher into the overbought territory at 94.81. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.551% and oil climbed to $42.16/barrel. Gold also continued its rally closing at another record of $2,051.40/oz as the dollar continued to devalue.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday afternoon that the country’s 4 largest banks (JPM, WFC, BAC, C) had $152 billion in loans that are in “deferred payments” status as of the end of June. Since there is no standardized reporting of this information to the SEC, it is likely the total in “deferred” status is much higher. For example, WFC only reports on residential loan deferrals (not commercial). At the same time, C outlined only that most of its deferred payments are coming from credit cards.
The stimulus plan negotiations made some progress Wednesday with the White House agreeing to higher unemployment benefits through December (70% of compensation plus $400/week) and Democrats agreeing to reduce their Postal Service funding from $25 billion to $10 billion. Meanwhile, away from the negotiations, Republican Senators who are up for reelection offered their own bill that is even more generous than what the White House agreed. The 3 Senators offered 80% of compensation plus $400-$500/week (at State discretion) for August and then 80% plus $400/week through the end of the year. Even though not part of the negotiations, since it was introduced as a bill, one has to assume their levels become the minimum of an end-deal.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,973,741 confirmed cases and 161,608 deaths. On the day, we saw over 55,000 new cases (still suspiciously well below a week ago and far below the 7-day average) and over 1,300 deaths (above the 7-day average). KS reported late Wednesday that its counties that do not have mask mandates have seen higher spread rates than those that have mandates. Meanwhile, another group (The Infectious Disease Society of America) urged a Federal mask mandate in an open letter to VP Pence. In virus-related business news, JNJ reached a $1 billion deal with the government to produce 100 million doses of vaccine, once a vaccine has been approved.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 19,005,651 confirmed cases and 711,863 deaths. In Europe, both France and Germany reported their highest daily increase in cases since May while the spread in Spain is back to levels it saw in April. Poland also increased restrictions a notch again. In Asia, Australia’s 2nd largest city (Melbourne) has been placed on total lockdown for 6 weeks. In China, despite a tiny new case count, the country has ramped up testing to 4.85 million tests per day.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side again. The only significant movers were South Korea (+1.33%) and Singapore (+1.04%). At the same time, China, Japan, and Hong Kong were modestly lower. However, in Europe, we see red across the board at this point. The FTSE is down 2%, CAC down 1.2%, and DAX down 0.85%. The only news I know of that may be the driver in Europe is the Bank of England holding rates steady and warning of slower recovery. However, it may be the trade war between the US and China or even the lack of a US stimulus deal that weighs on sentiment. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are flat, all 3 major indices sitting just on the red side of break-even from yesterday’s close.
The major economic news is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 10 am). Major earnings releases include ADNT, AEP, AES, BCE, BDX, BHC, BLL, BMY, CAH, CNP, CNQ, COMM, CORE, GLP, HFC, HII, HLT, HWM, JLL, KBR, LNG, MYL, NSIT, OLN, PH, PWR, TEN, THS, TRGP, VIAC, WLK, and ZTS all before the open. Then after the close, AEE, AVT, BECN, BHF, CWK, DXC, ED, EOG, FLO, HLF, MWK, PBA, PRSP, POST, RSG, TDS, TMUS, UBER, UNVR, and WCN report.
Markets remain seemingly unrelentingly bullish. The SPY is now back to within 2% of its all-time high and QQQ seems to print new all-time highs daily. However, by most counts, markets could use a rest again. Still, this most recent surge has come in a more orderly action (fewer huge gaps and whipsaw candles). And that sort of price action tends to allow moves to last longer. So, don’t fight the trend, but remain aware that another pause or swing to the downside may come soon.
As always, stick to your trading rules and execute with discipline. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take profits along the way. Remember, a trader’s job is to consistently achieve goals and build their account. It’s a job, so treat it that way and work rather than hoping to catch those 2,500% “lightening in a bottle” trades. There are a lot of reads that made a killing taking profit on the KODK explosion and a lot more that chased or wanted even more and have now blown out their account. Learn that lesson.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: BB, MRO, F, NLY, NIO, CAR, PAAS, ABT, URI, IAG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
