We all enjoy a nice relief rally but keep your eyes focused on the overhead price resistance levels because that will reveal if the bulls have what it takes to plow through bearish defenses. I wouldn’t expect smooth price action with the VIX holding a 20-handle and still above its 50-day average. Though the DIA and SPY hold bullish trends, the QQQ and IWM remain uncomfortably below significant resistance levels. Plan your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend.
Overnight Asian markets ended the week with a mixed and choppy session, with Taiwan surging 1.6%. European markets trade mixed with modest gains or losses as they wait on economic data. Ahead of PMI and Housing data, U.S. futures point to bullish open as bonds pull back slightly.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a lighter day of reports with just 14 companies listed. Notable reports include BAH, BKE, DE, DSX, FL, & VHC.
News & Technicals’
A nice relief rally began yesterday as the buy the dip traders satisfied their appetite, lifting tech and crypto. The U.S Treasury calls for stricter cryptocurrency compliance with IRS suggesting it poses tax evasion risk. Janet Yellen proposes a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% and says discussions should continue to be ambitious to push the rate even higher. Israel and Hamas agree to a cease-fire; however, both sides seem very skeptical about it holding as they sling insults back and forth at each other. Treasury yields are drifting slightly lower this morning, with the 10-year dropping to 1.618% and the 30-year coming in at 2.323% ahead of PMI and housing data.
Though we experienced a nice relief rally, the bulls still need to show the willingness to follow through, clearing overhead price resistance levels. The tech giants provided a significant portion of the rally, but a quick look at the charts shows they are still in downtrends. The QQQ was able to get above its 50-day average, so the test now is, can it hold it as support? This morning bond rates are softening slightly, which could be very helpful to the struggling tech sector. The VIX closed the day above its 50-day average and a 20 handle. We should continue to expect significant price volatility and should not rule out the possibility of reversals as we approach price resistance levels. Be careful not to chase as you plan your risk heading into the weekend.
Markets gapped up on better than expected (lower) new Jobless Claims and then the bulls followed-through with the exception of a brief break at noon and another the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a second strong bullish candle in a row and broke the string of losses, but the market is also coming into one of the areas of resistance caused by the action the last two weeks. On the day, SPY gained 1.04%, DIA gained 0.57%, and QQQ gained 1.93%. The VXX lost 5.5% to 40.03 and T2122 rose at bit to 63.56. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.632% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2% to $62.05/barrel.
At the end of the trading day Treas. Sec. Yellen announced that the US has proposed a global minimum corporate tax of 15% to the OECD (Org. for Economic Cooperation and Development). Treasury officials later told the press that the OECD meeting had featured “earnest talks” toward a global minimum tax. The idea is to prevent companies for shifting earnings to hide from taxes as the many major companies do now. Earlier in the day, the Treasury Dept. had announced a stricter crackdown on cryptocurrency usage and said it would require reporting of all transfers worth $10,000 or more. Also separately, the Fed announced it would take the next step in developing its own digital currency this summer (in a move seen as catch-up to the Chinese who have been testing a Chinese Cryptocurrency for over a year).
In the wake of the Colonial Pipeline mess, after the Close Thursday, it was reported that one of the largest insurance companies in the US has paid hackers $40 million in ransom. In a story broke by Bloomberg, it was revealed that CNA paid the massive ransom to regain control of their computer network in late March. Bloomberg said the company would not confirm the ransom paid, but did confirm the hack and said it was a different hacker group (at least in name) than the one that shutdown Colonial. Welcome to the new age.
Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,833,181 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 602,616. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 28,735 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 573 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported that vaccinations rates have fallen over 46% from their peak, but at the same time 38% of American adults are fully vaccinated. However, Dr. Fauci (NIH) reiterated Thursday that we will need booster shots, but that we don’t know yet how soon and suggesting the amount of time between vaccination and booster may actually vary by vaccine.
Globally, the numbers rose to 165,912,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,446,477 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 623,846 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,296 new deaths per day. JNJ announced Thursday that its vaccine has joined PFE, MRNA AZN, and 3 others in a study being conducted by the UK. That study is looking to identify the best seasonal booster shots as follow-on to initial vaccination. The EU also reached a deal on when and how to give Covid-19 Vaccine Passports, which is expected to enable an increase in travel across Europe. While India has now passed 26 million cases, a new focus is on a deadly, post-covid infection called “black fungus” that attacks people with weakened immune systems in that region and that their government is just now starting to track.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but leaned to the green side. India (+1.81%), Taiwan (+1.62%), and Japan (+0.78%) led the gainers while Malaysia (-0.83%) and Shenzhen (-0.81%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets lean even more heavily to the green side, but on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical with outliers like Greece (-4.03%), Denmark (+1.24%), and Norway (+1.41%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.34% open, the SPY implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.28% open.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and April Existing Housing Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BAH, DE, FL, and VFC. Then after the close there are no major reports.
The bulls are looking to follow up on the strong run they have made since the open Wednesday (which to be fair was at a nasty gap-down level). However, we are just now clawing back to the level we were at a week ago and there remains resistance overhead. While yesterday’s news of the Biden administration wanting to clamp down on tax cheats and proposing a global minimum corporate tax don’t seem to be major market threats, the fear of losing an “easy Fed” remains a cloud that is hanging over the bulls head. So, in that sense, our fight back to the all-time highs remains “climbing the wall of worry.”
Don’t forget it’s Friday. So, consider what you need to do to protect against weekend headline risk. You don’t want to get caught like those longs who ran into the Colonial pipeline news 2 weekends ago. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LAZR, IQ, IRM, XL, NOK, INO, CSCO, INSG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Though the index charts have taken some technical damage, the DIA and SPY finding the energy to hold at their respective 50-day averages provide hope that a relief rally may soon follow. However, the damage in the QQQ and IWM is much more significant and will require substantial effort by the bulls to reverse the current downtrends and overhead price resistance levels. The elevated VIX suggests we should expect challenging price volatility as the bulls and bears battle for control. Inexperienced traders will likely find this environment very costly due to the speed and range of the point moves, overnight reversals, and whipsaws that are likely to occur.
Asin markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight though Japan’s exports surged in April. European markets are currently green across the board this morning after the Fed talks of tapering. On the other hand, U.S. futures point to a bearish open though will off the overnight lows ahead of Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed numbers.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Today we have just 39 companies listed on the calendar, but several of them have not confirmed their reports. Notable reports include AMAT, BJ, CSIQ, DECK, HRL, KSS, RL, PANW, & ROST.
News & Technicals’
Facebook is facing some court challenges that could lead to a ban on its EU-U.S. data transfers. Blocking their transatlantic data flow will have profound implications for other U.S. tech giants. Bitcoin plunges 30% and at one point touched 30,000 yesterday, which constitutes a 50% haircut from recent highs. Hamas says it sees a cease-fire possible in the coming days, but this fight has gone on for decades and is unlikely to find a resolution anytime soon. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped this morning to 1.663%, and the 30-year fell to 2.371% after investors digested the FOMC minutes, where there were hints that the committee might begin pulling back on debit purchases.
Yesterday’s sell-off created some technical damage in the index charts, but there was also a few rays of hope, with the DIA and SPY finding at least some temporary support at their 50-day moving averages. Unfortunately, the QQQ and IWM are under this critical psychological level but managed to hold the price supports of last week’s selling. Recovery, however, could be challenging with both technical and price action resistance levels overhead blocking the potential relief rallies. The VIX closed well below its high of the day but remained quite elevated above a 22 handle so expect considerable price action volatility to continue. Experienced day-traders will likely have the upper hand in this environment, while swing traders may find the quick whipsaws and complete overnight reversals very challenging.
Markets did a classic gap-and-reverse on Wednesday as the bears gapped all 3 major indices significantly lower and then the bulls slowly rallied all day. All 3 indices printed strong white candles, but only the QQQ managed to completely close the gap. On the day, SPY lost 0.28%, DIA lost 0.52%, and QQQ gained 0.11%. The VXX rose almost 5% to 42.35 and T2122 fell down close to the oversold territory at 26.45. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.674% and Oil (WTI) fell over 3% to $63.40/barrel.
Bitcoin had one hell of a roller-coaster day Wednesday. It suffered more than a 30% drop (from over $43,000 to $30,000) before putting in a 30% rally (from $30,000 back up over $42,000) and then finally settled closer to the top of the range ($38,900). While some analysts called this a capitulation, others explain the fall as a reaction to the recent reversal of acceptance of the cryptocurrency. For example, the IRS and DOJ have recently both launched investigations into the main cryptocurrency exchange, China warned their financial institutions not to provide services related to any cryptocurrency, and TSLA announced no longer accepting the would-be currency in payment for their products.
In the April FOMC Meeting Minutes released Wednesday, the Fed basically said what it has been saying for months. They are unconcerned about that they see as transitory inflationary pressures. Specifically, “there is no need to change policy now, but it might be appropriate to consider tapering at some point” was the consensus view. Markets did not react since this was a known position. However, some analysts say the minutes showed the Fed may reconsider if rapid progress continues. As always, the glass is either half full or half empty depending on your perspective.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,802,324 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,949. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 29,975 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 591 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr, Fauci (NIH) told the press that infection rates are decreasing in all 50 states, down 18% nationally from one week ago. He told Axios that should the trend continue, it will be safe enough to resume indoor activities like dining soon. However, in answer to one question he reiterated that it is likely we will need a booster shot within a year of completing vaccination. JNJ announced Wed. evening that 100 million doses of its vaccine are held up in FDA inspection due to contamination problems at one of JNJ’s contract manufacturers (Emergent). No word on whether this is somehow related to JNJ falling behind promised delivery schedules to the EU.
Globally, the numbers rose to 165,629,929 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,433,602 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 637,518 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,360 new deaths per day. The UK is taking heat as it defends continuing to allow direct flights from India amid a 28% surge in cases of the Indian 617 variant. However, the number of cases is still just under 3,000 per day. As if semiconductor shortages were not bad enough already, Taiwan is now battling its worst outbreak (which pales in comparison to neighboring China, let alone the US). So far, businesses have not been ordered shut. However, that country is the world’s largest supplier of silicon semiconductors.
Asian markets were mixed overnight on mostly modest moves. New Zealand (+1.27%) and Australian (also +1.27%) were the largest movers with India (-0.83%) pacing the losses. In Europe, markets are broadly green with only Russia and Norway in the red. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (+0.52%), and CAC (+0.58%) are fairly typical of the continent at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mildly down open. The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a flat -0.03% open.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BJ, CSIQ, HRL, KSS, WOOF, RL, and TCEHY. Then after the close, AMAT, DECK, ENS, FLO, and ROST report.
After the nasty gap-down, the bulls were in charge all day Wednesday. However, they came up just a bit shy of erasing the gap except the QQQ which just barely got the job done. All 3 major indices now sit just above support that may have held yesterday. It is very hard to trade a gap-and-fade market. It’s even harder when markets may be at a short-term swing point. So, be careful. With that said, it is likely to be Jobless Claims that call the tune this morning…or more to the point, how those claims can be inferred to impact inflation. This is because it remains the fear of losing an “easy Fed” that has powered the bears for some time now.
If you’re trading this market, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With the DIA and SPY cling to bullish trends, worrisome cracks have developed in the index charts. I use charts because I believe they me clues. However, to read those clues, we have to see the charts for what they are, not for what we want them to be. The QQQ and IWM are in failure patterns below their 50-day averages, and both the DIA and SPY show possible lower highs that are in striking distance of new lower lows. For years and market, sell-off offered an opportunity to buy the dip, and perhaps this one is no different, but I think it time to consider the possibility the market top is near.
Asian markets traded mostly lower overnight, with Australia falling a full 2%. European markets trade decidedly bearish this morning, and the U.S. futures, despite solid earnings results, point to bearish open as we wait for the FOMC minutes.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have 31 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include CSCO, ADI, JD, LB, LOW, SCVL, TGT, & TJX.
News & Technicals’
Though we saw solid earnings results yesterday, the market yawned and spent the day chopping in a very tight range intraday consolidation. This morning we have already heard from TGT and LOW with massive beats on expectations, but the bears seem to be making another attempt at control this morning. According to reports, about $270 billion has disappeared from the crypto markets, and bitcoin continues to slide south after the Musk tweet. One has to wonder at the validity of a currency that collapses after a company chooses not to use it to sell cars. Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the 10-year treasuries lifted to 1.66% this morning, and the 30-year rose to 2.385% as inflation worries persist. President Biden extended the grace period for Chinese companies to comply with new restrictions to June 11th versus the prior date of May 27th.
Some worrisome cracks are starting to show in the primary index charts. Both the QQQ and IWM show possible failures at their 50-day moving averages. The VIX, as of yesterday, is trying to hold a higher low, and the Absolute Breadth Indicator has trended lower since March of last year. Despite consistent reassurance from the Fed that the current inflation is transitory, worries persist that the market is overheating and may soon force the hand of the FOMC. Though the DIA and SPY continue to cling to bullish trends, price patterns in the charts are raising some concern. The DIA now shows a lower high and is within striking distance of last week’s low. The SPY is in a similar pattern and has a stronger overhead resistance than that of the DIA. Futures trade decided bearish this morning ahead of the Petroleum numbers, a 20-year bond auction, and the release of FOMC minutes. Caution flags are waving, so plan accordingly.
Markets opened mostly flat on Tuesday and then ground sideways until about 1:30 pm. From there, the bears had control right into the close. This left us with ugly candles as all 3 major indices closed near their lows and also completed something similar to an Evening Star pattern (without the gap-up star) in all three. On the day, the SPY lost 0.86%, the DIA lost 0.74%, and the QQQ lost 0.68%. The VXX rose about 1.5% to 40.45 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 55.83. 10-year bond yields were down slightly to 1.639% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $65.46.
Better than expected earnings from big retailers were offset by a 9.5% drop in Housing Starts. In other news, it was leaked that AMZN is in talks to buy MGM, not for the casinos, but for the media content and as a counter-move to the agreed WarnerMedia merger with DISCA. It also came out Tuesday evening that the DISCA-WarnerMedia deal was structured so that it can easily be sold in the future. CNBC reports that AAPL, AMZN, and DIS might all be suitors to buy the merged group in the future.
In miscellaneous business news, Bitcoin fell below $40,000 for the first time in over 3 months. F also unveiled a new electric F-150 during a visit from President Biden. (The official unveiling will be Wed. evening.) This is just the latest of traditional carmakers moving to compete with the all-electric TSLA. QSR (Burger King) has thrown its hat in the ring of the Chicken Sandwich market with a new menu item launch. And RTX has announced it will cut office space by 25% as it is the latest company to realize that large portions of its work can be done remotely and at a lower cost.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,774,945 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,330. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,004 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 623 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported Tuesday that 60% of American adults have received at least one shot and just under 48% are fully vaccinated. This comes one day after new research showed that the PFE-BTNX and MRNA vaccines appear to be effective against the Indian 617 (double mutation) variant. So, great news on that front.
Globally, the numbers rose to 164,965,197 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,420,858 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 650,594 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,462 new deaths per day. The protests hoping to get the Tokyo Olympics cancelled continued to grow Tuesday, as only 1% of the Japanese population is fully vaccinated now. However, the head of the Intl. Olympic Comm. say the games will be held and safely. In that region, after recent outbreaks China has vaccinated 100 million people in just 9 days in Anhui and Lioning provinces. Meanwhile, in India, the country reported a record of over 4,500 deaths on Wednesday. For our part, the White House announced Monday that the US would share 80 million doses of vaccine with COVAX (the international vaccine sharing initiative) over the next six weeks, which are intended for poorer nations. This includes equal amounts of the PFE, MRNA, JNJ, and AZN vaccines.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Hong Kong (+1.42%) and South Koreas (+1.23%) bucked the trend. However, Australian (-1.90%), Japan (-1.28%), Indonesia (-1.27%), and Singapore (-1.22%) were more typical of the region. In Europe, markets are red across the board. The FTSE (-1.14%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.13%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a nasty open. All 3 major indices are implying a one percent or larger gap down at this point in the morning.
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC April Meeting Minutes (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 11:35 am). Major earnings reports before the open include ADI, JD, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIPS, and ZIM. Then after the close SQM, CSCO, CPRT, BEKE, KEYS, LB, SNPS, and ZTO report.
The bears showed up again on Tuesday afternoon and look to get some follow-through at the open today. The impact of supply chains that have been focused on efficiency and short-term profit (just-in-time, low inventories throughout the entire supply chain) continues to wreak havoc. In addition to very short supply of many products (i.e. chips), the situation has created abundant opportunities for companies to use this excuse to flex pricing power. So, inflation fear will continue to weigh heavily on the market psyche and with very limited economic news scheduled that might change the narrative, the bulls will need to dig deep to reverse that momentum.
If you’re trading to the long side, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IQ, HBI, F, DHI, IBB, FIS, GM, MJ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Futures perked up overnight, trying to shake off inflation jitters, but those pesky bonds are moving slightly higher this morning, mixing in some uncertainty. As solid earnings results from HD and WMT try to inspire the premarket bulls, we still have new permits, and housing starts to digest before the open. Though the DIA and SPY continue to cling to a bullish trend, the QQQ and IWM remain challenged by the overhead resistance of their 50-day averages. Keep in mind intraday whipsaw and pop and drop patterns are still possible as we attempt to challenge price resistance levels. Stay focused.
Overnight Asian markets enjoyed a bounce back with the NIKKEI, leading the up closing up more than 2%. European markets have also turned positive this morning. However, the concern is growing about a quickly spreading virus variant in the U.K. Fueled on the blowout earnings results, U.S. futures point to a bullish open ahead of new construction housing data. Remember, choppy price action is still possible ahead of the Wednesday release of the FOMC minutes. Be careful not to chase the open.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the earnings calendar, we have a focus on big retail, with more than 40 companies reporting. Notable reports include HD, WMT, BIDU, DQ, IQ, M, NTES, SE, TTWO, TTM, & TCOM.
News and Technicals’
After a day of choppy rest with modest losses, the futures perked up overnight as they try to shake off last week’s inflation jitters. Home Depot reported blowout results early this morning as sales lept higher by 32.7%. The new virus variant that emerged in India could become the dominant strain in the U.K. in a matter of according to health officials. The U.K. is detecting a rapid spread of the new variant. Though futures try to push higher this morning, the same is true of the 10-Year Treasuries as they top 1.65%, with the 30-year rising to 2.368%. In a call with Netanyahu, Biden said the U.S. supports a ceasefire; however, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to escalate. More than 300 rockets have bombarded Israeli cities.
On the technical front, not much changed yesterday, with the SPY and IWM remaining under their 50-day averages. The DIA and SPY ended the day with only modest losses holding on to key supports though still challenged by overhead resistance. Earnings from HD and WMT are trying to inspire the bulls as we wait on the latest reading of building permits and housing starts. It will be interesting to see if the sharply rising materials costs have dampened new construction activity. As the futures rise, keep in mind that bonds are also moving higher this morning. Be careful not to chase and watch for the possible pop and drop near price resistance levels. Keep in mind that the T2122 indicator is nearing an overbought condition already, and the VIX yesterday held at a higher low. We should also not rule out the possibility of another day of chop as we wait on the FOMC minutes released Wednesday afternoon.
The violence of the last weeks selling and bounce likely left traders and investors a bit shell-shocked and rightfully concerned about what comes next! Markets hate uncertainty, and with rising inflation, the Fed’s following action certainly raises the bar on uncertainty. Toss in the growing instability in Israel, cybersecurity threats, higher taxes as just a few of the pending concerns, the stage is set for some very challenging price action. For now, calmer price action can be found in stocks sectors XLF, XLE, XOP, XLB & XLP.
Overnight Asian market trade mixed with the NIKKEI lower by nearly 1%. European markets trade lower across the board this morning with modest losses. Ahead of manufacturing and housing numbers, the U.S. futures point to a lower open and the uncomfortable possibility that the QQQ could fail at its 50-day average. Stay focused and flexible, ready to fast price action and intraday whipsaws.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar, we have more than 190 companies listed on the calendar, but the vast majority listed are unconfirmed. Notable reports include TWNK, IBIO, RIDE, RYAAY, TME.
News & Technicals’
After bouncing back from last week’s sell-off is now facing a morning with futures suggesting a lower open and price resistance levels above, leaving behind a bit of uncertainty. According to a U.S Trade Representative and an EU Commission official, the European Union and the U.S. have started talks to end steel tariffs. The efforts to get Iran back on track with its nuclear deal could undercut the efforts to end the conflict between Israel and Palestinian militants. Reviving the deal means that Iran would receive Billions of dollars in sanctions relief that Tehran could use to fund Hamas. Treasury yields are pulling back slightly this morning, with the 10-year dipping to 1.617% and the 30-year slipping to 2.336%. I suspect today’s speech from Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Fed, will have lots of eyes looking for future clues as investors try to balance an overheating market and the possibility of rising interest rates. Investors will also closely inspect the FOMC minutes released Wednesday afternoon.
Last week’s volatility likely left traders and investors a bit shell-shocked with the speed and violence of the selling. It also left behind some serious technical questions to be answered in the week ahead. The NASDAQ suffered the worst of the technical damage confirming a downtrend and now having to deal with its 50-day average as price resistance. The Russel suffered similar technical damage. The SPY successfully held at its 50-day average, bouncing strongly to end the week but now has price resistance above that could block the path higher. With inflation worries and the real possibility of Fed rate action, we should expect the wild price volatility to continue. Stay focused and plan your risk carefully.
The bulls had their way on Friday. A large gap-up open was followed-up with a slow grinding drift higher the rest of the day. However, a selloff the last 5 minutes of the day pulled the 3 major indices off their highs. This let the SPY up 1.54%, the DIA up 1.12%, and the QQQ up 2.21%. The VXX fell almost 12% to 38.60 and the T2122 spiked back up just inside the edge of the overbought territory at 82.20. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 2.5% to $65.40/barrel. For the week, markets were down, but ended much closer to flat than to the lows.
On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that T is in advanced talks to spin off its WarnerMedia (formerly TimeWarner, owners of HBO, TBS, TNT, and Warner Bothers Studios) into a merger with DISCA (Discovery Channel). This would be the latest refocusing of T (DirecTV was spun off in February) and would also be a move to better compete with NFLX and DIS. Early Monday, T announced that it had reached a deal to do just that.
In other Sunday news, Elon Musk followed up on the TSLA decision to “pause” allowing customers to buy cars with Bitcoin, by agreeing with a tweet that said Bitcoin holders would slap themselves when they find out TSLA had dumped all of its Bitcoin holdings. This implied TSLA had already or will soon sell its $1.5 billion of Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell below $43,000 on this tweet exchange. However, Musk later covered his tail (related to the SEC and his own board) by tweeting that he wanted to be clear that TSLA has not sold any of its BitCoin holdings yet.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,715,951 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 600,147. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,811 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 616 per day (the lowest number since July 2020).
Globally, the numbers rose to 163,767,582 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,394,487 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 672,304 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,329 new deaths per day. Both Singapore and Taiwan have ordered their toughest restrictions yet on Sunday. However, in Europe, Germany has started to reopen. Also in Europe, GSK (UK) and SNY (France) report they have had positive results in phase 2 trials of their own vaccine. If everything went well, there drug could be ready for release by the end of 2021. I’m not sure if these pharma giants see the pandemic as a continuing problem or are looking toward serving the less developed (unvaccinated now) portions of the world. In India, vaccinations drives to large parts of the country have been suspended as a Cyclone strengthens in the region. However, their number of new cases did fall below 300,000 for the first time in a month on Monday.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.74%) and India (+1.67%) led the gains. Meanwhile, Taiwan (-2.99%) and Thailand (-1.76%) led the losses on virus resurgence in those countries. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red with a few minor exchanges bucking that trend at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.63%), DAX (-0.31%), and CAC (-038%) are typical, as usual, so far Monday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to moderate gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.42% open, the SPY implying a -0.40% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.46% open.
The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a trio of Fed speakers (Clarida at 10:05 am, Bostic at 10.25 am, and Clarida again at 10:25 am). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close TME reports.
The bears look to try taking some of the shine off of the Bulls 2-day run that ended last week. The coming week should continue to see markets focus on inflation (and the fear of its impacts on Fed policy). We will have Housing data on Tuesday, April Fed minutes on Wednesday, Philly Fed and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PMI data on Friday. There will also be a plethora of Fed speakers during the week. Although the bulk of earnings are behind us, there will be also a few stragglers reporting. So, there is plenty of room for volatility this week.
As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DDD, FUBO, SENS, NOK, PSTH, TECK, LLY, CCJ, JMIA, BCRX, LUMN, SKLZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The chop resumed Thursday with a gap higher after Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected and major indices gapped higher and then followed through to the upside in the morning. The afternoon was a roller-coaster ride that ended on a 15-minute freefall. This left us with Bullish Harami candles in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ printed a indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type candle. On the day, the SPY gained 1.17%, the DIA gained 1.26%, and the QQQ gained 0.77%. The VXX fell 9%, but remains at 43.76 and T2122 (4-week New High-Low Ratio) rose just outside the edge of the oversold territory to 20.69.
During the day, it was revealed that Colonial had paid the $5 million ransom for their data and as a result are back to full operations starting Wednesday night. The supply of fuels at the end of the distribution channel should be back to normal by next week. In other news, DIS posted a big earnings beat, but the headline was a miss on revenue and lower than expected subscriber growth.
In legal news, the IRS and Dept. of Justice announced they have begun investigations into Binance, which is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Yet Dogecoin rallied as Elon Musk again tweeted about working with the coin’s developers. Meanwhile, GOOG is leading an effort that includes AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TWTR, IBM, ADBE, and others in a legal filing to support high-skilled workers (and their families) who have been in the US working on H-1B visas. This filing was opposing the legal action taken by a group called Save Jobs USA, who themselves had filed a lawsuit against the Dept. of Human Services for allowing the H-1B visa holders to stay under a different status after the previous administration moves to return them to their country of origin.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,626,097 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 598,540. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 36,648 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 625 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Thursday that it is time to rethink outdoor masking. Later in the day it was announced the CDC will release guideline changes that say vaccinated people no longer need masks either indoor or outdoors. However, the TSA said that the mask mandate for travel will remain into September.
Globally, the numbers rose to 161,900,605 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,360,651 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 732,781 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,644 new deaths per day. There are concerns in Europe as the number of cases of Indian “Double Mutation” variant found in the UK has doubled in a week to over 1,300. This is still not out of control yet, but the growth rate is worthy of concern and caution as that country has now come out of restrictions.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. China’s Central Bank announced that they are concerned about inflation, but that it was not the top priority at the moment. On that news, Japan (+2.32%) and Shenzhen (+2.09%) led the gainers, while Singapore (-2.18%) led the losses. However, on the whole, the region was modestly higher on the day. In Europe, markets are green across the board on more modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.68%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (+0.74%) are all solidly higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe’s lead. The DIA is implying a +0.45% open, the SPY implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.03% open.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes April Import/Export Prices and April Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), April Ind. Production (9:15 am), as well as Mar. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to DSEY and PBR before the open. There are no major reports after the close.
The bulls stepped back in on Thursday, but a lot of work remains to be done before they overcome the damage done by the selloff earlier in the week. However, the Chinese Central Bank following the lead of our own Fed may be enough reassurance to let the bulls push again on Friday. Just remember that resistance overhead before getting too crazy on the long side.
As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Finally, remember that it’s Friday. So consider weekend risk (such as last weekend’s Colonial Pipeline news) and don’t forget to pay yourself.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMC, DDD, FUBO, LUMN, MDLZ, KHC, PSTH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
