Blog - Page 154 of 651 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Loan Demand Flat As ADP and PMI On Deck

September 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Tuesday was a consolidation day for markets with a flat open leading to a sideways grind in all the major indices. The QQQ showed the most volatility for the day, but closed well up off the lows and closer to the highs of the day, leaving a Hanging Man type of candle. The two large-cap indices both printed Doji-like candles. On the day, the SPY lost 0.15%, the DIA lost 0.05%, and the QQQ lost 0.08%. The VXX fell slightly to 25.49 and T2122 dropped a bit further down into the mid-range. 10-year bond yields were up to 1.31% and Oil (WTI) fell to $68.52/barrel. Despite the small losses, the S&P500 booked its 7^th-straight winning month in August. On the month, SPY was up 2.98%, DIA was up 1.27%, and QQQ was up 4.22%.

For the week, mortgage loan demand was basically flat. New home loan applications rose 1% week-over-week. Meanwhile, refinancing loan applications fell 4% for the week. This comes as mortgage rates (30-year fixed, conforming loan) remain steady at 3.03%.

This morning Bloomberg reported that a new study by Willis Towers Watson Consulting finds that 52% of US employers are planning or are strongly considering implementing employee vaccine mandates by the end of the year. That is well more than double the 21% that currently have mandates in place. In addition, 14% of the companies are also considering implementing a “healthcare surcharge” on unvaccinated employees in lieu of the mandate. This comes from a survey of 1,000 US employers conducted August 18-25.

A study research study published Monday in the Journal of American Medical Assn. (JAMA) found that the MRNA vaccine creates well more than twice as many antibodies as the PFE-BTNX vaccine. The study went on to suggest the differences may be due to a larger amount of active ingredient in the MRNA vaccine and potentially influenced by the different intervals between shots in the two vaccine regimens.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on private data showing that China’s PMI is shrinking (49.2 down from 50.4 in July). Japan (+1.29%) and Singapore (+1.07%) led the fewer gainers, while Indonesia (-0.97%) and Malaysia (-0.90%) paced the more numerous losers. In Europe, we see green across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.79%), DAX (+0.18%), and CAC (+1.20%) are typical of the spread in that region at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.29% open, the SPY implying a +0.32% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open in the pre-market. Meanwhile, the Dollar is up slightly and 10-year bond yields are up to 1.321%, while commodities are mixed in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes August ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), August Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Fed member Bostic speaks (noon). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BF.B, CPB, and DY before the open. Then after the close, CHWY, FIVE, and GEF report.

Markets get more economic data today, which may help break the stalemate of the very recent consolidation. In the premarket, we’ll see a preview of Friday’s August Payrolls data. then mid-morning we get PMI data. Both may lend to some volatility. Remember that we still sit at all-time highs and, perhaps, just a little extended from the T-line (8ema), but the trend remains bullish.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains a trend far more often than it reverses the trends. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DGX, RIG, JETS, AMD, NAT, AAPL, WBA, BGFV. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Brokerage and South Korean News Lead

August 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started the week off with a small gap higher in all 3 major indices. After the open, the SPY and QQQ saw a strong rally into late morning and then sideways trading the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the DIA was much more tentative, trading in waves to the side all day long. This left us with a strong bullish candle in the QQQ, a decent bullish candle in the SPY, with just a bit of upper wick, and a gap-up black candle in the DIA. On the day, SPY gained 0.44% (to a new all-time high close), QQQ gained 1.12% (to a new all-time high close), and DIA lost 0.14%. The VXX fell a percent to 25.59 and T2122 dropped just outside of the overbought territory to 76.62. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.28% and Oil (WTI) gained about half of a percent to $69.06/barrel.

During the day, SEC Chairman Gensler told Barron’s that the banning of “payment for order flow” is a possibility. This caused HOOD to tank, closing down 6.89% after being down over 10% at one point. However, this has broader implications for traders as most brokerages are offering zero or no commissions now on the back of this practice of selling order flow to marketmakers rather than charging higher commissions. Gensler told Barron’s that this practice is an inherent conflict of interest (not necessarily giving brokerage clients the best price at the moment of order) and he feels it hurts both traders and markets. No timetable was mentioned, but this interview came after Friday’s announcement that the SEC would step up inquiries into the “gamification” of trading. So, it implies a major change in SEC governance. In other brokerage news, PYPL is exploring ways to allow users to invest in stocks. While likely not a threat to the major brokers, the likes of HOOD, WeBull, SOFI, FUTU, etc.

In tech stock news, South Korea has passed legislation (180-8) that prohibits AAPL and GOOG from requiring App developers to use only their own payment processing systems. South Korea is a major smartphone market. However, the much larger picture would be the adoption of such measures in Europe (likely) and the US (unknown probability). This will mean that developers can avoid paying AAPL and GOOG a 30% commission on all sales. If we assume the App developers will still need to have payments processed somewhere (at a cost), the move will likely mean improved profitability (but not by 30%) for developers and a major hit to AAPL and GOOG app store revenues.

GS said Monday that they expect 750k evictions by the end of the year out of the 3.5 million US households that are behind on rent. In related news, Bloomberg also reports that analyst firm RealPage has found that rents are increasing by an average of 17% relative to what the previous tenant paid. Obviously, these two developments will have major impacts on REITs and other property-related businesses.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Korea (+1.75%), Hong Kong (+1.33%), and Japan (+1.08%) led the gains. Singapore (-1.52%) and Shenzhen (-0.66%) were the only red in the region as Chinese Factory data showed a slowing growth of activity in August. In Europe, markets are also mostly green so far today. The FTSE (-0.05%) is lagging, but the DAX (+0.71%), and CAC (+0.28%) are typical of the rest of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is implying +0.01%, the SPY implying +0.02%, and the QQQ implying +0.06%. The Dollar is trading a bit lower, while 10-year bond yields and Oil are up slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to Chicago PMI (9:45 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DBI, NTES, and DAO before the open. Then after the close, PVH reports.

Markets may well be in “wait and see” mode as we draw nearer to more data dumps later in the week (especially the August Payrolls number on Friday). However, we are sitting at all-time highs in s strong bullish trend on fairly strong breadth. We are a bit extended from the T-line in the QQQ (rally leader), but there has been no hint of bear strength yet. So, don’t bet on trend failure, but be prepared if a pullback or rest starts to materialize.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains trend far more often than it reverses trends. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OPCH, CAN, EBON, BTBT, ARRY, RIDE, FLDM, NAIL, ABT, DLPN, PDD, RIG, TSLA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Another day to Set Records

August 30, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Reaction to Powell’s comments on Friday turned out to be just another day to set records as the risk-hungry bulls continued to buy, buy, buy. With the futures bullish again this morning, we could set more records at the open. The sharp decline in the VIX on Friday also suggests there is little to no fear, but as valuations continue to stretch, be careful with complacency. There will be a day when the market will suddenly care about weakening economic metrics but, until then, stay with the trend and party on traders!

Asian markets closed green across the board, and Australian shared recovered early losses due to a spike in pandemic infections. European markets see modest gains across the board this morning, and the U.S. futures point to modest gains at the open that may well set new records ahead of Pending Home Sales numbers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 21 companies listed on the earnings calendar to kick off the week, with several unconfirmed. Notable reports include ZM, LI, NDSN, SOL, & STNE.

News & Technicals’

Though hurricane Ida prompted the refining industry to shut down production, oil prices are remarkably lower this morning, with news that gas prices have declined 0.03 cents a gallon. That is the first reduction in gas prices in nearly nine months. The Colonial Pipeline halts gasoline deliveries to the east coast due to the storm, and more than 1 million are without power. China’s slew of regulations cracking down on the tech sector may not be over, according to experts that have flagged a number of risks, including continued regulatory scrutiny, geopolitics, and the overall impacts to the business.

Friday was another day to set records after Jerome Powell talked taper with rate increase well into the future. Though he made light of the inflation, several major banks were quick to disagree, suggesting the sharply higher prices damaging consumer sentiment could have substantial market impacts. But for now, the Fed chair is sticking to his story; it’s only transitory! So this morning U.S. future continues to push upward, looking to set more records at the open. The DIA is lagging behind the SPY and QQQ but is now within striking distance of a breakout. With the massive move in oil stocks Friday, even the IWM significantly improved as it surged above its 50-day average for the first time since mid-July. So stay with the trend, but don’t become complacent as we ignore bad economic metrics. Someday the market may suddenly care about valuations, consumer sentiment, and inflation. Until then, Party on Garth!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Ida and Delta Now, Aug Payrolls Ahead

August 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher Friday and started to drift higher. However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech was met with joy and a strong rally between 10 and 10:30 am, before drifting slowly higher until the last 15 minutes of the day. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that closed near the highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.89% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.97% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell over 5% to 25.85 and T2122 jumped deep into the overbought territory at 91.51. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.305% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $68.68/ barrel.

Hurricane Ida came ashore early Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane. It made landfall West of New Orleans. Prior to the landfall, Ida had shut down 91% of Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Having reached the US, Ida will now shut down a sizeable chunk of US oil refining and chemical production that follows the Mississippi River to the North and extends West to the Texas state line (Chemical Alley). However, the Oil production, refining, and chemical processing plants should be largely back online within days, pending local damage and power outages.

In chip shortage news, TSM has announced they will be increasing the price of their products by 10-20% depending on the wafer generation as of the end of this year. Computers will see the lower end of the price rise, but low-end electronics (like cars) will see the high end of the increases. There is very little doubt that Intel, Global Foundries (recently filed to go public), QCOM, AVGO, and others will follow suit. The underlying reasons are the huge investments being made into additional production capacity, modest input cost increases, and most importantly the tremendous pricing power the industry has had amidst skyrocketing demand over the last 18 months. This is likely to lead to rising prices on every product that contains electronics.

In other virus-related news, new US infections continue to rise. However, analysts continue to predict we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 39,665,515 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 654,689. The averages are now at 156,819 new cases and 993 new deaths per day. Amidst that backdrop, Israel (at an all-time high peak in new cases), which tends to front-run US trends, has now approved and is pushing booster vaccinations in an effort to forestall another national shutdown. Along those lines, over the weekend both Dr. Fauci (NIH) and the White House gave support to the idea of boosters for all American citizens while continuing to push for vaccinations of any kind. (Only 53% of US Adults are fully vaccinated.)

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board. Only Shenzhen (-0.09%) showed any red at all. Meanwhile, Indonesia (+1.71%), India (+1.35%), and Taiwan (+1.08%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed, but still lean to the green side on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.32%), DAX (+0.22%), and CAC (+0.18%) are typical of the gainers with outliers like Greece (+1.16%) and Norway (-0.29%) at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a+0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.13% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to July Pending Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CTLT, LI, and VEON before the open. Then after the close, NDSN, STNE, and ZM report.

With Jackson Hole behind us, markets are likely to look toward the data dumps later in the week (and especially the August Payrolls Report on Friday). It is possible volatility picks up here, but most of all, remember that we are sitting at all-time highs coming into a month’s end. (Granted it is not a quarter-end, but still more funds will be reporting the period’s results than say a given week. And that can lead to some profit-taking and Window Dressing prior to Wednesday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WKHS, NKLA, F, KRE, BB, BFLY, RIDE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Taper Talk Woke up the Bears

August 27, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Taper talk woke up the bears hearing the intentions of Fed committee members at the virtual Jackson Hole symposium. Today we will hear from Chairman Jerome Powell, and he has a very daunting task to accomplish. Will his words calm market fears as he tries to walk back the easy money policies, or will he inspire the bears? Unfortunately, the market has become addicted to easy money, so Powell is between a rock and hard. I would not want to be in his shoes!

Asian markets traded mixed overnight in a choppy session ending with modest gains and losses. European markets trade mixed in subdued price action as they wait for the Fed Chair speech. As usual, the U.S. futures are pumping higher in the premaket seeing green across the board ahead of the economic data. The stage is set for wild price action, so buckle up the ride is about to begin.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a light day on the Friday earnings Calendar with 24 companies, but a large majority are small-cap unconfirmed reports. Notable reports include BIG & HIBB.

News & Technicals’

The hot GDP and the rising jobless numbers didn’t slow down those ravenous bulls in early trading, but Fed committee members’ taper talk woke up the bears. The terrorist attack on the Afghanistan airport killing Americans also dampened the bullish mood. Unfortunately, the U.S. and its allies warn that more terrorist attacks are likely as the president’s self-imposed deadline quickly approaches. The Supreme Court agreed with the lower court blocking the administration’s eviction moratorium reaffirming that the CDC does not have the power to make such decisions. They said the nation’s landlords have been losing as much as $19 Billion a month. California, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Washington have state-imposed eviction moratoriums not affected by this decision.

Yesterday’s selling adds a bit more complication to the index charts. The DIA now could have a lower high but will need follow-through selling to confirm. In addition, the IWM has again failed at its 50-day average, suggesting the bearishness in this index may continue. However, the SPY and QQQ suffered no technical damage in yesterday’s selling, with the tech giants holding firm and even rising in some cases. Before the open today, we will get the latest reading on international trade and personal incomes, but all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he tries to thread the needle. Can his words keep the market afloat as they try to walk back the easy money policies that the market has become so addicted? We will find out soon, so buckle up it could be a wild price action Friday!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Tops Agenda

August 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Thursday and sold off in a couple of waves during the day as Fed members spoke to close on the lows. While the move was larger than the previous 3 days of the week, the move was about the same size as every move last week. So, it was by no means a selloff. This action left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA (which failed the 8ema, but just black-body candles that did not even test the 8ema in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.58%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.64%. The VXX rose 4% to 27.25 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 40.16. 10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $67.85/barrel.

After the close Thursday, WDAY, MRVL, and GPS beat on both lines. HPQ missed on revenue, but beat on earnings. PTON beat on revenue and missed very significantly on earnings (-$1.05/share vs. -$0.44/share estimated). PTON also announced they will be slashing the price of their less expensive bike by hundreds of dollars starting immediately. (The Bike+ debuted at $2,495 was reduced twice to $1,895 and will now sell for $1,495.) In legal news, GILD won an appeal on the $1.2 billion judgment BMY had won related to a cancer treatment that encourages the patient’s own immune system to fight the disease. The judge said the original ruling was not based on substantial evidence.

The big news on the day is expected to be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets (and especially media analysts) are expecting to get strong guidance from Powell on when and how the FOMC will begin to taper bond-buying. However, there is a major risk of disappointment in the speech with uncertainty over the current and future effect of the Delta variant on one side and a seemingly surging economy on the other.

As an example of Powell’s problem, just yesterday the Q2 GDP we revised upward a tenth of a percent to 6.6%, jobless claims came in holding at pandemic era lows, and two Fed members told the press they were worried about inflation. However, the US also reported 170,000 new covid cases, almost 12,000 new hospitalizations, and 1,215 deaths. More companies also announced pushing back the “return to the office” and that they are requiring employees to be vaccinated. So, the market wants concrete direction, but Powell needs to say we will taper, without locking himself into hard timelines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the green side on modest moves. Taiwan (+0.84%), Shanghai (+0.59%), and Thailand (+0.58%) led the gainers. Singapore (-0.92%), Japan (-0.36%) and Indonesia (-0.28%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed and flat but lean slightly to the downside ahead of the headliner speeches at Jackson Hole. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.11%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open ahead of data and the Fed Chair Speech. The DIA is implying a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.34% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes July PCE, Jul Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium resumes at 9 am and Fed Chair Powell does his presentation at 10 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BIG before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled after the close.

With Powell’s speech beginning at 10 am, I expect very light action early (unless Powell’s speech gets leaked early). With that said, I also expect considerable volatility when the speech sinks in. If you are not already hedged or lighter in your positions, it is probably time to be very nimble. Trade carefully and remember this is Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you cannot control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. And if you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, BTBT, CARR, BB, BTU, EBAY, WKHS, GSMG, NURO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Taper or no Taper

August 26, 2021 by Doug Campbell

This morning we have to deal with GDP and Jobless Claims, and then the big question for the market to ponder is Taper or no taper. Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern, attempting to build the narrative to appease the market on easy money policies and inflation. That will be a difficult needle to thread, considering the market’s addiction to freshly printed money. After the reporting, a -0.1 durable goods, the bulls continued to buy, pushing the SPY and QQQ to their 3^rd record high this week. Lately, both good and bad news has inspired the bulls to buy. So perhaps none of this matters, but be prepared for price volatility as the market reacts.

Asian markets closed the day mostly lower as South Korea hikes interest rates. Across the pond, European markets see red across the board as global sentiment worries grow. That said, the U.S. seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach with a mixed bag hovering near the flatline. So let’s get ready to rumble!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our biggest day of the week on the Thursday earnings calendar, with 56 companies listed with several unconfirmed reports. Notable reports include DG, ANF, BBW, BURL, COTY, DELL, DLTR, FRO, GPS, HAIN, HPQ, SJM, MRVL, QLLI, PTON, SAFM, TITN, VMW, WDAY, & XPEV.

Jobless Claims, GDP, and Jackson Hole

August 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened just on the green side of flat Wednesday. That was followed by a long drift sideways with a slight bullish lean for the rest of the day. This left us with Spinning Top or Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.21% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.11% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX fell 2.28% to 26.10 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 82.05. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.344% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.14% to $68.31/barrel.

During the day, WDC spiked higher on reports of a big tech merger. The Wall Street Journal reported that WDC is close to a deal with Japanese memory maker Kioxia (a one-time spin-off from Toshiba). This reaction is quite odd, in that WDC would be the purchasing company and yet was up over 15% at one point in the day (before closing up 7.8%). This comes after a proposed Kioxia buyout by MU fell through last month. The WDC deal will reportedly value Kioxia at $20 billion and will be paid for in WDC stock. Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash memory technology widely used in most computer memory and solid-state storage.

After the close, the White House held a cybersecurity summit, aimed at preventing hacks and ransomware attacks such as the Colonial Pipeline incident, came to an end. GOOG announced they will spend $10 billion over 5 years to strengthen their security and pledged to train 100,000 IT people on security best practices. Not to be outdone, MSFT said they will spend $20 billion over 5 years to deliver more advanced security tools (software) and pledged to spend $150 million to help government agencies upgrade security. IBM pledged to train 150,000 people in cybersecurity skills over 3 years and announced a data storage infrastructure solution that is more secure than current architectures. AMZN said it is planning to give users of its cloud services free multi-factor authentication devices. Many other firms gave non-specific support to security and the attendees agreed to create a new industry standard for security.

In miscellaneous stock news, one day after PFE received approval, MRNA has now filed with the FDA requesting its Covid-19 vaccine get full approval (versus the current “Emergency Use” approval). Elsewhere, the CEO of TOL told CNBC that recent lumber price declines will save the company $40,000 per house and help offset other inflation pressures in the second half of the year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red as South Korea hiked interest rates. Shenzhen (-1.92%), Shanghai (-1.09%), and Hong Kong (-1.08%) led to the downside. Most of the green was barely green, with the notable exception of Malaysia (+1.02%). In Europe, stocks are showing modest red moves everywhere except for 2 minor exchanges. The FTSE (-0.35%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, but red open. The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.17% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields and the Dollar are also flat, but Oil is down nine-tenths of a percent to $67.73 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium also begins at 9 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, SJM, MOMO, SAFM, XPEV, and YSG before the open. Then after the close, DELL, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, PTON, VMW, and WDAY report.

As Jackson Hole gets underway, markets are likely to watch and wait until they get a better read on what the Fed will do and when. So, it is quite possible we are going to stay in “pause mode” at least until Fed Chair Powell’s presentation. At that point, we may see Mr. Market make a decision (and move). However, volatility around each of the many presentations is possible. So, this would be a great time to be nimble, hedged, or with plenty of dry powder (cash).

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, CUBI, CG, FAST, NAVI, TSCO, RCL, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Durable Goods

August 25, 2021 by Doug Campbell

After a low volume, choppy record-setting day, all eyes are on the Durable goods figures just around the corner. Consensus suggests a decline to a -0.2 reading according to the Econoday analysts. With consumer confidence dropping to 2011 low and the unemployment bonuses expiring on September 6th^th investors hope the numbers can support the current prices. What happens is anyone’s guess, and then we will quickly turn our attention to Jackson Hole and thoughts of tapering. Be prepared as price volatility is likely.

Asian markets closed the day mixed in a choppy session as Chines tech stocks retrace recent gains. This morning, European markets trade with modest gains and losses, waiting on data and gearing up for the Fed summit. However, the bulls continue to push higher, sporting modest gains ahead of the retail sales numbers across the board. One must wonder if the market will ignore the data as it has done lately with negative economic news.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 33 companies listed but several small-cap unconfirmed reports. Notable reports include CRM, ADSK, ATHM, BOX, DKS, EXPR, GES, NTAP, PLAB, PSTG, SCVL, SNOW, SPLK, ULTA, & WSM.

News & Techincals’

The U.S. House voted to approve a $3.5 trillion budget resolution to forward sweeping social programs without a single Republican vote. Leaders have pledged to a vote on the deficit spending plan by September 27^th. Vice President Harris called out China’s bullying tactics while visiting Vietnam and donating a million vaccine doses. According to reports, the U.S. is also opening a review of U.S – China trade policies. Treasury yields moved higher this morning, with the 10-year lifting to 1.29% and the 30-year rising to 1.91%.

Another day of record in the SPY and QQQ in a choppy below-average volume session as we wait on the Durable Goods figures that will release an hour before the market open. The market is also gearing up for the Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday. Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern time on Friday, where investors will be listening and hoping to gain some insight into the central bank’s plans on tapering the $120 billion a month program. The bulls remain in control on the technical front, with the DIA and IWM still lagging behind the big tech-driven rally in the SPY and QQQ. Now the question is, what will the retail numbers say? Will it continue to support this short-term extension, or will we see a re-emergence of the bears? The big miss on consumer confidence has traders and investors on the edge of their seats as they wait for the data. Another question to be answered is if the number does miss, will it matter? Lately, the market has had an incredible ability to ignore bad economic news. We will soon find out.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A Pause Before We Get to Jackson Hole?

August 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets essentially opened very slightly higher Tuesday and then ground sideways with a slight bullish lean until about 2:30 pm. At that point, we saw profit-taking right into the close. This left us with tiny, Gap-Up Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY closed up 0.15% (to another new all-time high close), DIA closed up 0.08%, and QQQ closed up 0.31% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX was flat at 26.71 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 70.97. 10-year bond yields moved higher to 1.299% and Oil (WTI) gained 3% to $67.66/barrel.

After the close, the House voted to approve a procedural measure that advances both the $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. The move comes after Democratic infighting was resolved and will allow Democrats to approve the massive spending bills without any Republican votes. While still a long way off, this is another major step toward both the Infrastructure bill (great for steel, telecom, and other industries) and the Democratic budget agenda (increased social “safety net” and education spending), which may hurt industries like insurance and drug companies as well as tax increases on business and high-income.

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.03%. This was the first drop in rates in the last 3 weeks. However, mortgage demand remains light, seeing only a 1% increase in refinance applications and a 3% increase in new loan applications from last week.

JNJ reported that its Covid Booster shot is showing a promising immune response in early trials this morning. Specifically, trial participants are showing a nine-fold increase in antibodies 4 weeks after the booster shot. In other virus-related news, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 38,968,925 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 648,161. The averages are now at 148,755 new cases and 873 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but heavily to the green side. Taiwan (+1.35%), Malaysia (+1.06%), and Thailand (+0.85%) led to the upside. The only red was minor and came from Japan (-0.03%) and Hong Kong (-0.13%). In Europe, we also see mixed markets, but on more modest moves at this hour. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.16%), and CAC (+0.16%) are typical of the mix across the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.02% open at this hour. Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 1.309% and Oil is up a third of a percent in early trading, even as the Dollar shows a little strength against other currencies.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DKS, LX, QH, RY, and VIOT before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, SPLK, ULTA, and WSM report.

As traders begin preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium (Central Banker Summit, which is virtual this year), the pause may continue again today. Traders will focus on figuring out how “tapering” will be couched in the discussions and then handicapping how the market will react. While July Durable Goods and Current Oil Inventories new could theoretically move markets, the more likely scenario is that we drift as traders prepare. That’s our cue to be prepared as well. What will you need to do to your portfolio if we see a taper tantrum pullback? How about if we see an “everything’s hunky-dory” rally? Plan ahead so that you aren’t running around with your hair on fire if one of those does come to pass Thursday or Friday.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SWCH, NLOK, SBUX, DKNG, CARR, PENN, AMC, GME, CAN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching