Markets gapped up half a percent on Friday. However, the bears stepped in right away and sold off hard until noon.  There was an early afternoon bounce in all 3 major indices, but the bears stepped in again about 1:30 pm and drove prices lower all the way into the close.  This left us with 3 ugly black candles in the major indices, closing near the lows and taking out potential support levels across the board.  On the day, SPY lost 0.79%, DIA lost 0.75%, and QQQ lost 0.76%.  The VXX rose just under 4% to 27.06 and T2122 dropped just into the oversold territory at 19.58.  10-year bond yields spiked dramatically to 1.343% (it was a very volatile week for bond yields, both up and down) and Oil (WTI) rose 2.3% to $69.71/barrel on continued production concerns out of the Gulf of Mexico. 

During the day Friday, the big news was the AAPL court ruling.  A federal judge handed down a ruling in the EPIC Games vs AAPL lawsuit.  This ruling bars AAPL from forcing app developers to use only the AAPL payment system (and pay a 30% service fee) as well as prohibiting apps from providing links to their own websites or having direct contact with end-users.  This is a landmark anti-trust ruling that will surely be appealed to the end of the earth by AAPL.  However, it also would apply to very similar policies that GOOG enforces (and which would be barred under this precedent if EPIC Games sues GOOG now). For reference, even though AAPL does not disclose the numbers, industry analysts estimate the Apple store accounted for about $25 billion in profit from this 30% cut in 2020.  GOOG also does not disclose detailed financials but is estimated to have generated about $3.5 billion in profit from their own app store in 2020.

In weekend stock news, KSU has decided to accept the $31 billion offer (2.884 shares and $90 cash per share) from CP.  This came after regulators rejected key portions of a $33.6 billion offer from CNI.  On the other side of the Pacific, China will reportedly break up Ant Group’s AliPay in order to separate the company from its sister (fellow Ant Group) company BABA. This action will read through to all the Chinese Tech titans (TME for example) and also has implications for AAPL and GOOG (see story above) and other US firms that operate in the giant Chinese market. 

We start the week with Senate returning (the House follows next Monday) to face a number of deadlines and with more economic data ahead this week.  Items on the Congressional economic agenda include the Infrastructure bill ($1 trillion), the Budget bill ($3.5 trillion), Appropriations (government funding), and Debt Ceiling raise.  Economic data includes CPI, Industrial Production, NY Empire and Philly Fed Mfg. Indexes, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment…all later this week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red on modest moves.  Hong Kong (-1.50%) was a big outlier to the downside and New Zealand (+0.81%) a big outlier to the upside.  However, in Europe, stocks are starting the week green across the board on healthy moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.82%), DAX (+1.07%), and CAC (0.81%) lead the way, but gains are widespread in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe and pointing to a gap higher.  The DIA is implying a +0.58% open, the SPY implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.51% open.  The Dollar is stronger this morning and the 10-year bond yields down to 1.324% while Oil (WTI) is trading about eight-tenths of a percent higher in early action.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is August Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  The are no major earnings reports scheduled before the open.  After the close, ORCL is the only major report scheduled.

You would be forgiven if you looked at a weekly chart and saw Evening Star signals in the large-cap indices and a Bearish Engulfing signal in the QQQ. Any way you slice it, last week’s loss of 1.5-2.1% in the major indices was not good news for the bulls. However, traders seem to be looking to rebound (buy the dip) in premarket action. Bloomberg also reported today that economists are starting to buy the Fed line that the inflation we have and are seeing is tied to the stimulus injections and may fade soon. So, there is a little something for both sides. The only sure thing is that we face some technical damage from the (especially in the DIA) that will have to be overcome before we could move higher.

As always, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Remember you don’t have to trade every day. So, consider whether this market suits your trading style or not before blindly trading. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry too much about the things outside of your control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader just won’t let greed turn their winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMC, APA, BP, RAD, BFLY, FB, NVDA, MSFT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat Thursday after Weekly Jobless claims came in well below estimate (310k vs 335k est.) in the last report before the end of extended unemployment will hit the books.  Stocks then put in a little rally the first half-hour.  At that point, we saw a slow fade back to flat at 1 pm.  However, at one Fed member Bowman told the American Bankers Assn. she is “still encouraged about the economic recovery and expects the Fed to taper bond buying this year.” This was nothing new, but markets still sold off hard for 30 minutes before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  This left us with Inverted Hammer-type candles in all 3 major indices with prices going out near the lows.  On the day, SPY lost 0.42%, QQQ lost 0.34%, and DIA lost 0.38%.  The VXX gained 2% to 26.06 and T2122 held steady at 33.54.  10-year bond yields dropped to 1.295% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $67.98/barrel. 

Despite the drop in oil prices, Bloomberg reported Thursday evening that US Oil output fell to its lowest level on record (going back to 1983) after Hurricane Ida.  This amounts to a 1.5mil barrel/day production decline.  In fact, 75% of US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains offline more than 10 days after the storm left the gulf.  Maybe most alarmingly, on Wednesday, RDS.A (one of the largest global oil producers) declared “force majeure” on many of its open contracts to deliver oil. This news about the severity of the problem can’t help but impact the Oil E&P tickers that focus on the gulf.

After the close, WFC announced it will pay another $250 million fine.  This one stems from a banking regulator finding that WFC did not properly execute a mortgage loss mitigation program.  This violated a 2018 consent order and was tied to the company’s loan modification program.  The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said they are also considering putting limits on the bank’s future activities since it has engaged in “unsafe and unsound practices.”  Oddly, WFC stock rose 1.6% in after-hours trading on the news.

Thursday evening, New York joined CA to become the second state (and large population state to boot) that will ban the sale of new internal combustions vehicles by 2035.  The NY ban impacts both cars and trucks, while CA only bans internal-combustion light-duty trucks (SUVs and pickups) as of then.  This is more evidence of the major shift in the auto industry, potentially working in favor of TSLA, NKLA (head starts) and requiring major retooling and technology shifts from the old guard like GM, F, and FCAU. Obviously, batteries, electricity production, and charging station infrastructure-related industries will benefit from the accelerating trend.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves.  The three exceptions to this rule were Hong Kong (+1.91%), Japan (+1.25%), and Taiwan (+0.98%) which posted strong week-ending gains as Chinese game stocks made a comeback after the Thursday overreaction to the downside.  In Europe, stocks are mostly higher on modest moves as the region rebounds from fear that preceded the ECB meeting.  The FTSE (+0.34%), DAX (+0.45%), and CAC (+0.36%) are leading the way at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher.  The DIA is implying a +0.52% open, the SPY implying a +0.45% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.44% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 1.321%, Oil (WTI) is up 1.85% to $69.41/barrel, and the dollar is down just slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to August PPI (8:30 am), and WASDE Report (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to KR before the open.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls have been showing a few cracks in their armor this week with the DIA and SPY both printing 4 lower closes and the QQQ now having printed 2 lower closes. However, the T-line (8ema) may still give the QQQ support as the massive high-tech names continue to do work for the bulls with the “buy the dip” outlook. Expect the PPI to impact futures later this morning and this may lead to some volatility early. However, also remember this is Friday, there will be a lot of 9/11 remembrances distracting traders and it has been a light-volume week with no major news (and a heavier news cycle coming next week). So, we may see more drifting on low volume today.

As always, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Remember you don’t have to trade every day. So, consider whether this market suits your trading style or not before blindly trading. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry too much about the things outside of your control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader just won’t let greed turn their winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: There are no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened just on the red side of flat Wednesday and after a shaky first 5 minutes, the bulls rallied to test the small gap.  However, that rally failed by 10:30 taking us to the lows by 11 am.  The rest of the day was a whipsaw of small waves that closed up off the lows. This left us with indecisive Doji candles in the DIA and SPY and a long-wick Hammer (or Hanging Man) in the QQQ.  This was also the third straight lower close in the large-cap indices and the first in the QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.13%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ lost 0.35%.  The VXX was flat at 25.51 and T2122 fell again to 33.33.  10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 1.338% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.5% to $69.36/barrel. 

During the day Wednesday, the Fed JOLTS report showed that that were 10.9 million job openings in July.  This was much higher than the 9.9 million estimated and was more than 2 million more openings than there were unemployed.  Interestingly, the percentage of openings that saw hires fell from 4.7% to 4.5% while the percentage of workers who quit remained stable at 2.7% and the rate of new layoffs grew by 1%.  Analysts say this indicates workers were confident and that wages for job openings were not high enough to overcome prospect expectations and inflation perceptions.

Overnight, Chinese regulators called the executives of Tencent, NetEase, and other game companies in to remind them of the new restrictions on game time for children.  Those restrictions limit Chinese under age 18 to a maximum of 3 hours per week of online gameplay.  China also announced a temporary halt to new game approvals. Finally, Chinese education authorities banned tutors and education companies from delivering lessons online or in any unregistered venue. These moves caused investors to run for the door on Chinese tech stocks and may well bleed over into China-related stocks listed in the US.

Treasury Sec. Yellen warned House Speaker Pelosi that the Treasury Department will have exhausted its “extraordinary measures” at some point in October.  She called on Congress to raise the national debt ceiling before this happens, otherwise the country will default on debts.  This comes as the Democratic party is infighting over more progressive or more centrist versions of the national budget and as Republicans are saying “no” to both groups of proposals as all sides seek to appeal to their political bases (or principles if you prefer).  While this is on the fiscal side, it comes as the monetary taper debate intensifies and markets are grasping for direction.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the downside.  Hong Kong (-2.30%) was hit hardest due to being the main exchange for Chinese tech stocks.  However, Australia (-1.90%) and South Korea (-1.53%) were also at the top of the list of exchanges in the red.  Shanghai (+0.49%) was one of the few green exchanges in the region. In Europe, markets are red across the board so far today as the region prepares for the European Central Bank meeting later today.  The FTSE (-1.15%) is an outlier with the DAX (-0.22%) and CAC (-0.20%) being more typical of the region at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly down open.  The DIA is implying a -0.23% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.20% open at this hour.  The Dollar and 10-year bond yields are down slightly while Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and 3 Fed speakers (Daly at 11:05 am, Bowman at 1 pm, and Williams at 2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ASO and HOV before the open.  Then after the close, AMRK reports.

US Markets will likely take its early cue from Weekly Jobless Claims. However, the ECB will begin debating their taper later and Fed speakers will add to that storyline. So, expect some volatility, but Mr. MArket coming to a conclusion is still not likely today. The trend remains bullish, and the chart looks like a normal pause/pullback in all but the Dow. However, the signs of bearishness are clear in the DIA, where even the 50sma has been breached.

Remember you don’t have to trade every day. So, consider whether this market suits your trading style or not before blindly trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry too much about the things outside of your control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader just won’t let greed turn their winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPRT, CLOV, T, AAPL, NVAX, BTCM, FUTU, SKLZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Tuesday and proceeded to sell off the first hour of the day.  From that point, the large-cap indices ground sideways, and the QQQQ rallied before grinding sideways.  Another selloff the last half-hour took us out down off the highs.  As a result, the QQQ printed a Doji (at an all-time high close) while the SPY printed a black candle that stayed above the 8ema (and lows of the consolidation range of the last week) and the DIA was the weakest of the group printing an ugly black candle that closed not far up off the lows.  On the day, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ gained 0.14%.  The VXX rose about 2.4% to 25.53 and T2122 dropped but remains in the mid-range at 41.48.  10-year bond yields were up sharply to 1.371% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.3% to $68.38/barrel.  Perhaps this reflected the Saudi oil price cut from Sunday. 

After having reached almost $53,000 on Monday night, Bitcoin fell hard Tuesday.  The largest cryptocurrency closed down over 11% to $46,354.  This came as El Salvador became the first to begin using Bitcoin as legal tender in the country.  Oddly, that country bought only about $20 million worth of Bitcoin, even though it has a GDP of over $27 billion.  Bitcoin-related stocks such as MSTR and COIN also took heavy hits on the day.  COIN also announced this morning that the SEC has notified it that the regulator intends to sue the company over an interest-earning product the company has planned to launch as soon as next week.

Late in the afternoon Tuesday, F announced it had hired the AAPL executive that has been leading the “Apple Car” project.  Doug Field was also a former TSLA executive (led the development of the TSLA Model 3) and is slated to become the “Chief Advanced Technology and Embedded Systems Officer” at F as part of the company’s turnaround effort.  While AAPL confirmed Doug Field’s exit, they still refuse to confirm the existence of the project and analysts say this would be a blow to the AAPL project that is supposedly now focused on software to support autonomous driving, having abandoned the idea of becoming an auto-maker itself.

Mortgage rates remained unchanged this week (3.03% for a 30-year fixed, conforming loan).  This saw loan demand fall as home refinance applications were down 3% for the week (4% lower than a year ago).  New home purchase applications were flat last week, but down a full 18% from a year ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red in Asia.  Indonesia (-1.41%), Singapore (-1.27%), and Taiwan (-0.91%) saw the largest losses.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.89%) and Malaysia (+0.89%) were the only real gainers on the day as China remained flat.  In Europe, with Russia the only outlier, the rest of the continent is in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.45%), DAX (-0.62%), and CAC (-0.32%) are typical of the continent, but a couple of the small exchanges are down a full percent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another flat open.  The DIA is implying a -0.02% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.05% open at this hour.  10-year Bond yields are also just on the red side of flat, but Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July JOLTs (10 am), 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and a Fed Speaker (Williams at 1:10 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include KFY and REVG before the open.  Then after the close, ABM, CPRT, GME, LULU, and RH report.

Markets seem to be uncertain at the moment. With inflation fears, a diminishing economic growth rate, and a lack of clarity around both the taper timeline and the fiscal spending/taxation plans, traders appear to be waiting on more direction. Hopefully, some of that will become more clear the next few days with several Fed speakers on tap. In the meantime, beware of volatility and a waffling market. The mid-term trend remains bullish, but we are in a clear consolidation in the SPY and QQQ, while the DIA is pulling back and testing its 50sma in premarket trading.

Remember that the trend is your friend until it ends. So, don’t try to predict market direction changes. However, you should also consider whether market conditions are right for your trading. They say a rising tide lifts all ships, but it’s not a great idea to be out there rowing against the tide when you have a choice. You don’t have to trade every day.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things that you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader just won’t let greed turn their winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CPB, XSPA, PENN, AMC, RIG, EDU, PDD, CLOV, VIPS, NKLA, TELL, HSIC, GOGL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

August Nonfarm Payrolls increased far less than (one-third of) expected, but the July increase was also revised up significantly.  This happened while the participation rate increased (indicating more job seekers) and August wages grew twice as much as expected.  Analysts said this all indicates the impacts of Delta on hiring in the much more numerous lower-wage jobs (like travel/hospitality and restaurant/retail) and a commensurate percentage shift toward more jobs being filled in the higher-paying services and consulting sectors. 

Regardless, of the reasoning, this caused a quarter percent gap down at the open on Friday.  However, the bulls were not giving in so easily, and led by the Tech sector the major indices saw a slow rally that lasted all day long.  Only the DIA faded at day end. This left us with a Spinning Top candle in the DIA, and strong white candles in the SPY and especially QQQ.  On the day, QQQ gained 0.31% (to another new all-time high close), SPY lost 0.02%, and DIA lost 0.21%.  The VXX rose slightly to 24.94 and T2122 dropped just outside of the overbought territory to 78.60.  10-year bond yields rose t o1.326% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.27% to $69.10/barrel.

In miscellaneous news, MTCH soared after the close Friday when it was announced that ticker will be added to the S&P500 as of September 20.  MTCH will replace PRGO, which will be moved down the S&P MidCap 400 on that date.  On Sunday, Saudi Arabia cut oil prices for sale to Asia by between $1.30/barrel and $1.70/barrel.  The Saudi state oil company price reduction (on all grades of crude) comes after 3 straight months of increases.  This happens as OPEC+ is increasing production limits and the country is looking to capture market share. This morning, GS lowered its Q4 GDP estimates by a full percent (6.5% to 5.5%) and now expects 5.7% growth for the year. GS cited fading fiscal stimulus, a slowing service sector, and inflation worries as impediments to consumer spending.

On Friday, Senate Finance Committee Democrats prepared a number of new tax proposals.  One of these could impact the market by potentially reducing share buybacks. The proposal was to add an excise tax on all share buyback programs.  These programs have been widely seen as a buoy to the market, putting large buyers under price and preventing major pullbacks.  However, Wall Street shrugged off the news Friday. likely because it was only proposed, by only one party, a year before mid-term elections, and that means the proposal is a very long way from being made into law.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on data that Chinese exports in August beat expectations.  (The average estimate called for a 17.1% year-on-year increase, while they reported a 25.6% year-on-year increase.)  Shanghai (+1.51%), Shenzhen (+1.07%), and Japan (+0.86%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Thailand (-0.72%) stood out among the losses.  In Europe, markets are red across the board in morning trading.  The FTSE (-0.31%), DAX (-0.28%), and CAC (-0.08%) a decent gauge to the region, but most of the smaller exchanges are further in the red, perhaps waiting on more direction from the ECB meeting on Thursday.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.10% open, the SPY implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.07% open at this hour. However, 10-year bond yields are up sharply to 1.368% and Oil (WTI) down over 1% in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday as we ease back in after the long weekend.  There are also no earnings reports scheduled for the day.

After the holiday weekend, traders return with continued concerns about the impacts of the Delta variant and inflation. Sitting at the all-time highs and with no planned news drivers (none today and few the rest of the week except many Fed speakers), it’s quite possible that we see consolidation continue today. The trend remains bullish, but we’ve seen indecision among the large-caps for at least a week as high tech has been leading the rally for some time.

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things that you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Simply don’t let greed turn your winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PDD, EDU, CAN, EBAY, XHB, KR, HPQ, VIAV, AMC, VIPS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Economic data was mixed in the premarket Thursday.  Jobless Claims came in very slightly below expected and the July Trade Balance improved a bit.  However, nonfarm productivity for Q2 came in three-tenths of a percent lower than expected.  Markets seemed to like the news as stocks opened a third of a percent higher.  At that point, the large-cap indices ground sideways in a tight range until 1 pm, while the QQQ sold off steadily until 2 pm.  There was market-wide selling from 1-2 pm and then a very late rally into the close.  This left the SPY and DIA as indecisive Doji and the QQQ as a gap-up black candle with a significant lower wick (also indecisive).  On the day, SPY gained 0.32% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained o.38%, and QQQ lost 0.05%.  The VXX fell to 24.77 and T2122 rose slightly, further into the overbought territory at 89.38.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.287% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.6% to $69.72/barrel.

During the afternoon, F announced that its August sales had declined by over 33% due to the global chip shortage.  This was its worst month since June 2020 at the height of the pandemic shutdown.  Worst of all, August is historically one of the strongest car sales months.  For reference, US car dealers have 942k cars in inventory now compared to an average inventory of 3 million cars before the pandemic.  This chip shortage is quite obviously a problem across the auto (and other) industry, not just for F. 

A new study reported by Bloomberg says that more than 1 billion Asians will join the middle class by 2030.  This includes 76 million in Indonesia and even 24 million of that billion being in the US.  However, 75% of the number will be located in China and India.  The same study said that the changing demographics will lead to middle class shrinking in countries like Japan, Western Europe, and the US.  Obviously, this shift will impact corporations across the globe. In possibly related news CNBC reports that Chinese stock investing volumes continue to surge, despite recent government crackdowns on the Chinese Tech Giants. CNBC says that the average daily volume has held steady above $154 billion per day.

After the close, news came that the Democratic $3.5 billion budget bill is running into infighting problems.  Essentially Democratic Senator Manchin asked his party to “pause” the budget while both he and another Democratic Senator also said they will not support a budget anywhere near that size.  On the other side of the same party, progressives will not support a budget much smaller.  This puts the President’s domestic agenda at risk and may also imperil the $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill that Democrats have been trying to bundle as a pair with the Budget Bill.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with a widespread on the bullish side.  Japan (+2.05%) surged as current PM Suga dropped out of his governing party’s leadership race.  Taiwan (+1.14%), Indonesia (+0.80%), and South Korea (+0.79%) were the real leaders to the upside.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-0.72%) and Shenzhen (-0.68%) paced to the downside.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean heavily toward the red as they wait on US data as a guide.  The FTSE (+0.23%) and DAX (+0.14%) are outliers, but the CAC (-0.42%) is typical of the broader continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the green side of flat an hour ahead of the August Payroll Data.  The DIA is implying a +0.16% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.12% open at the moment.  10-year bond yields and Oil (WTI) are also up slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Participation Rate, and Aug. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Aug. Service PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am).  MAKE NOTE: we have a 3-day weekend ahead for US and Canadian markets. There are also no earnings reports scheduled for Friday or Monday.

August Payrolls data are very likely to call the tune today. However the Payroll data is interpreted by the traders, this is likely to be reinforced by mid-morning PMI data as Mr. Market begins to look ahead a couple of weeks to the Fed meeting. With that said, we do have an upcoming 3-day weekend, which many traders may try to stretch. So, be ready for early volatility with the potential for volume to begin drying up at some point mid-day.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things that you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Simply don’t let greed turn your winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FGEN, SKLZ, PDD, MMAT, BIDU, IQ, STEM, BILL, JMIA, LOW, AG, MGM, WYNN, RIG, CLOV, KR, SPT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service