TC2000 Archives - Page 84 of 143 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

3 Big Economic Reports Today

May 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets traded in a very tight range all day Wednesday on light volume as it appeared traders decided to get an early start to the long weekend. All 3 major indices printed indecisive Doji candles at the break-even level. On the day SPY gained 0.19%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX fell almost 5% to 35.91 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 69.66. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.581% and Oil (WTI) gained a fraction to $66.17/barrel.

During the day, the AMZN purchase of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion was agreed. The move puts them in better position to compete in the streaming space versus NFLX and DIS. XOM management also lost a historic proxy battle which allowed environmental activists to gain at least 2 (and possibly 3) of the 13 board seats. The activist group (Engine No. 1) has been pushing the company to move away from fossil fuel and toward a role in a zero-carbon footprint world. Big bank CEOs also took a grilling on Capitol Hill. From the left they were hammered over PPP, diversity and collections policies. From the right, they were hit over “woke capitalism” and what their stance was on budget deficits. After-hour NVDA beat on both lines on an 84% growth in revenue.

US and Chinese trade representatives held their first phone call since President Biden took office. No details have been leaked, other than both sides saying it was a candid and constructive call, with both sides agreeing to further discussions. In what may or may not be separate trade news, Bloomberg reports China has eased its “Offshore Funding Limit” for foreign banks (allowing foreign banks to own larger stakes in Chinese banks), which had been one of the measures imposed during the prior administration’s US-China Trade War. So at least the big banks got somehting out of a day they were grilled by US legislators.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,971,207 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 606,179. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 23,917 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 537 per day (the lowest number since March 2020). On Wednesday, 7 major health officials asked Congress to investigate the origin of Covid-19. President Biden also publicly tasked the US intelligence community to an investigate and report on the origin within 90 days. Finally, a study published in the JAMA said that 73% of the “moderate to severe” cases saw patients reporting symptoms at least 2 months after diagnosis.

Globally, the numbers rose to 169,143,484 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,513,941 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 555,028 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 11,487 new deaths per day. Wednesday, the EU asked JNJ to carry out most studies of their vaccine after a Belgian death. In the Australian state of Victoria, another 7-day lockdown has been issued after a new local outbreak.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side on uneven, but mostly modest moves. Malaysia (+1.02%) and Thailand (+0.92%) led the gains, with New Zealand (-0.84%) pacing the losses as the largest exchanges saw smaller moves. In Europe, markets are mostly modestly green so far today, but the largest exchanges lag. The FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.20%), and CAC (+0.59%) are not taking their typical leadership roles in the move, with several continental exchanges more green and more red than the big boys. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly lower open (albeit an hour before major economic news). The DIA is implying a flat +0.02% open, the SPY implying a slightly down -0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.37% fall at the open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April Durable Goods Orders, Q1 GDP, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), and April Pending home Sales (10 am). The big bank CEOs will also be in for their second day of testimony (public berating?) on Capitol Hill. Major earnings reports before the open include BBY, BURL, CM, DG, DLTR, MDT, RY, SAFM, and TD. Then after the close, ADSK, COST, DELL, GPS, GES, HPQ, YY, CRM, ULTA, and VMW report.

Those 3 major reports coming at 8:30 am are likely to call the tune in early trading. However, the volume has been light enough the last few days that it is possible traders are just taking the week off in order to stretch the long weekend ahead. So, beware of volatility and moves on very light volume. Either way, be wary of a resting or indecisive market we’ve seen the last few days possibly indicating resistance.

As always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick to the trend (appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VIAC, FSLY, RKT, NKLA, LAC, FUBO, WKHS, GOGO, BFLY, SOLO, TLRY, SKLZ, RUN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Fed Speakers Keep Reassuring Markets

May 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up modestly on Tuesday and the immediately began fading the gap. After the first hour, all three major indices were back down to at least flat and then proceeded to grind sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. This left us with something close to a Dark Cloud Cover candle in the SPY and a Bearish Engulfing in the DIA. On the day, SPY lost 0.20%, DIA lost 0.22%, and QQQ gained 0.15%. The VXX was flat at 37.70 and T2122 fell to 65.43. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.557% and Oil (WTI) was just South of flat at $65.87/barrel.

After the close San Francisco Fed Pres. Daly told CNBC “the economy is strong, but it’s way too early to tighten policy.” She also described her stance on inflation as “firmly in the transitory camp” (referring to her previously stated position that inflation is not snowballing and will subside on its own starting early in 2022). In an unrelated story, Corn futures fell 6% on the day (a massive move in futures) as markets fear of a larger than expected supply hit commodity speculators hard. This move was based more-or-less solely on a USDA report saying that 90% of intended corn acres have been planted as of Sunday. (While ahead of last year at this time, this is just in-line with a normal planting year.)

The Attorney General of the District of Columbia sued AMZN Tuesday on the basis of anti-trust activity. The suit alleges AMZN maintained a monopoly through pricing contracts (a “price parity clause” in their contracts with third-party sellers) that prevent price competition. The cluses prohibit third-party sellers from selling their products cheaper in any other venue than the AMZN Marketplace, and lets the company penalize any vendors that violate that clause. DC claims this amounts to making AMZN Marketplace a virutal monopoly and reduces price competition that hurts consumers. AMZN responded by saying “the DC Atty. Gen. has the situation exactly backwards” sicne their marketplace helps third-party sellers exists and therefore generally guarantees price competition overall.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,947,189 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 605,208. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 24,668 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 550 per day (the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 168,572,477 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,501,270 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 569,439 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 11,609 new deaths per day. India surpassed 27 million total cases, but the daily new case count was below 200,000 for the first time in over a month. Meanwhile, Malaysia now has more covid cases per million people than India (about 33% more) as of Sunday. While Malaysia is a small country, it borders much larger countries and trade routes.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green on modest moves. Thailand (+1.08%) and Hong Kong (+0.88%) led the gains while Shenzhen (-0.35%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are lean to the red side so far today. The FTSE (-0.29%) and DAX (-0.18%) are down modesty while the CAC (+0.03%) is flat. The rest of the continent is split on modest moves. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open in the markets. The DIA is implying a +0.27% open, the SPY implying +0.35% open, and the QQQ implying +0.42% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and a Fed speaker who presdents at two events (Quarles at 10 am and 3 pm). Other new includes the CEOs of the major banks (JPM, C, MS, BAC, WFC, and GS) begin two days of grilling in front of Congress today. Major earnings reports before the open include ANF, CPRI, DKS, LI, and PDD. Then after the close, UHAL, AEO, CHNG, DBI, DXC, MOD, NVDA, WSM, and WDAY report.

Bitcoin has climbed back above $40,000 this morning, 33% above the lows of last week, but still 38% below the April highs. At the same time, Gold rose overnight to over a 4-month high (back above $1,900/oz.). With limited news planned and bond yields in check, perhaps the Fed statements have alleviated the inflation fears for the moment. Whether that is true or not, it appears the bulls will make the opening push at the bell again this morning. However, remember that we still have resistance overhead and the bulls are showing to be tentative after a few strong days.

Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). As always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Markets Look to Open Higher Tuesday

May 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls took charge from the start on Monday as markets gapped higher at the open and followed-through for the first hour. However, that was the end of the movement for the day as stocks ground sideways in a tight range the remainder of the day, but ended on a slight pullback in the range. This left us with gap-up candles in all 3 major indices, with the DIA failing to break out of the highs of the last couple weeks. On the day, SPY gained 1.02%, DIA gained 0.56%, and QQQ gained 1.68%. The VXX fell over 4% to 37.73 and T2122 inched closer to the overbought territory at 76.81. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.603% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.81% to $66/barrel.

Big tech led the way Monday as AMAT, TSLA, and NVDA each gained over four percent. However, the FATMAG stocks all did well with FB and GOOG both gaining over 2.6%, AMZN and AAPL both gaining over 1.3%, and MSFT gained 2.29% on the day. For its part, Bitcoin had another volatile day after dropping below $32,000 on Sunday night, it rebounded 20% Monday after Elon Must tweeted that he had been talking to Bitcoin miners and that they committed to coming up with planned renewable energy plans which he found potentially promising. Also aiding the surge was a JPM bullish call for the stock of the main crypto exchange COIN.

In business news, CNBC reported late Monday that AMZN is very near a deal to buy MGM for between $8 and $9 billion. The deal would add to the AMZN Video content catalog and increase the company’s ability to compete against NFLX, DIS, and the newly merged WarnerMedia and DISCA. Elsewhere, after hours, Bloomberg reported that SQ will soon offer checking and savings accounts in addition to its current merchant (card processing) services. This will add another competitor to the bank space now dominated by JPM, BAC, WFC, C, and USB.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,922,937 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 604,416. Still, the number of new cases is falling again and is back down to an average of 25,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still falling more slowly, but are now down to 543 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The TSA reported on Monday that air travel was nearly back to 2019 number last weekend with 1.8 million people flying versus a 2019 number of 2.1 million for the same weekend. PFE announced that the first shots of its proposed booster (which combines the covid vaccine with a streptococcus vaccine) were administered as its trial of 6-month post “full vaccination” has begun.

Globally, the numbers rose to 168,032,095 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,488,576 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly, but remain at 581,560 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling but remains at 11,864 new deaths per day. The Summer Olympics took another hit on Monday as the US added Japan to its “Do not travel” travel advisory list. Meanwhile, Taiwan (the world’s largest exporter of microchips, including TSM) has extended it’s national lockdown by at least 3 more weeks. Since these measures prohibit any gatherings of more than 5 people and require masking at all times, it is reportedly impacting business operations.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost exclusively in the green. New Zealand (-0.87%) was the lone red, with Shanghai (+2.40%), Shenzhen (+2.34%), Hong Kong (+1.75%), and Taiwan (+1.58%) leading the bullish surge. In Europe, markets are slightly more mixed, but remain mostly in the green so far today. The 3 major exchanges FTSE (-0.08%), DAX (+0.74%), and CAC (+0.09%) set the tone as usual, with smaller exchanges tending to slightly larger moves. As f 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.26% open, the SPY implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.43% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, April New Home Sales, and a Fed speaker (Quarles) (all at 10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include AZO, CBRL, DY, ESLT, and VSAT. Then after the close, A, INTU, JWN, TOL, and URBN report.

CNBC reports that part of the cryptocurrency’s extreme volatility of late has been caused by large traders using 100-to-1 leverage. This has caused 20% to 30% swings in a day. However, so far this morning, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized. In stocks, the bulls seem to have the premarket momentum again today. However, with no new revelations driving the move, it remains a case of reopening expansion enthusiasm versus fear that overheating will cause the Fed to pump the breaks. As we approach the all-time highs again, there is still resistance overhead. Still, the short-term and long-term trends remain bullish although we seem to be later in the cycle.

Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). As always, keep locking in profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

US Wages Rise and China Taps Commodity Break

May 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher at the open on Friday, but then traded slowly lower all day, closing near the lows in the SPY and QQQ. The DIA closed as an indecisive Doji candle. On the day, SPY was flat (-0.08%), DIA was just positive (+0.15%), and QQQ was down 0.55%. The VXX fell to 39.48 and T2122 rose up to just outside the overbought territory at 77.19. 10-year bond yields were down slightly to 1.623% and Oil (WTI) shot up 3.13% to $63.88/barrel. Bitcoin ended a tumultuous week on a major down leg, losing 10.26% on the day as China’s State Council concluded they should crack down on bitcoin mining.

After the close Friday, FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Pres. Daly told Bloomberg that she expects the temporary factors that are leading to inflation “will persist the rest of this year, but will start to roll off at the beginning of next year.” She went on to say that Fed policy is in a good place right now and that policy makers need to be patient and not start tightening too soon. However, on Sunday Bloomberg also reported that the Chinese government is now decreasing infrastructure spending in a bid to reduce the commodity price bubble caused, in-part, by their massive expansion over the last 6-7 months. The report said this did not spell disaster for commodity bulls, since the US expansion is taking up slack with its larger stimulus plans. However, they did say that industrial metals cycles tend to coincide with China’s credit cycle. Which could mean good news in months to come for business input costs (reduced inflation)..

On Saturday, CNBC reported that for the first time in 25 years the ratio of worker pay to corporate profits has started to budge. In other words, the massive layoffs from the global pandemic have caused a situation where companies need to compete for labor in a way not seen since the 1990s. As a result, worker pay grew 3% in the first quarter. However, according to analytics from MCO, the ratio of compensation to profits still remains at the level of the late 1960s. That said, MCD, UA, BAC, and CMG are among the companies saying they will raise wages on average (sometime over the next several years). MCO says this will not impact corporate profitability in the short-term, but if the trend continues it could have an effect in 2023 or 2024.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,896,660 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 604,087. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 25,083 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 553 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC announced that 25 states have now vaccinated at least half of their adult population. This comes as 61% of the adult population has received at least one shot and almost 50% of adults are fully vaccinated.

Globally, the numbers rose to 167,589,687 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,479,788 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 592,614 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,088 new deaths per day. The Japanese government is decrying a slow uptake in vaccination, even in the main cities planned to host the summer Olympics. Less than 2% of the population is vaccinated and even Tokyo is seeing less than a third of the number of daily vaccinations the government has deemed necessary.

Asian markets were mixed overnight on modest moves, but leaned slightly to the green side. Shenzhen (+0.62%) led to the upside and South Korea (-0.38%) led to the down side. In Europe we see a similar story taking shape as of mid-day. All 3 of the large exchanges are in the green so far, but most of the smaller exchanges are on the red side. The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.44%), and CAC (+0.02%) are all slightly green at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are all in the green. The DIA is implying a +0.28% open, the SPY implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.62% open. Oil is higher in premarket by 1.40%.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to two Fed speakers (Brainard at 9 am and Bostic at noon). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close NDSN reports.

Markets look to be opening inside the range of the last few days. The bulls seem to have the premarket momentum, but there are no new revelations driving the move. It remains a case of reopening expansion enthusiasm versus fear that overheating will cause the Fed to pump the breaks. With a very strong quarter of earnings just behind us and high expectations for strong profits in the current quarter, the bulls have the general momentum. However, there is resistance overhead and we are coming off one hell of a bull run. So, this is a “climbing the wall of worry” situation…meaning we seem to be later in the cycle.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KHC, INSG, MARA, INTC, XHB, INO, SPCE, F, SRPT, DDD, RIOT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

CNA Paid $40mil, Yellen Proposes 15 Pct

May 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up on better than expected (lower) new Jobless Claims and then the bulls followed-through with the exception of a brief break at noon and another the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a second strong bullish candle in a row and broke the string of losses, but the market is also coming into one of the areas of resistance caused by the action the last two weeks. On the day, SPY gained 1.04%, DIA gained 0.57%, and QQQ gained 1.93%. The VXX lost 5.5% to 40.03 and T2122 rose at bit to 63.56. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.632% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2% to $62.05/barrel.

At the end of the trading day Treas. Sec. Yellen announced that the US has proposed a global minimum corporate tax of 15% to the OECD (Org. for Economic Cooperation and Development). Treasury officials later told the press that the OECD meeting had featured “earnest talks” toward a global minimum tax. The idea is to prevent companies for shifting earnings to hide from taxes as the many major companies do now. Earlier in the day, the Treasury Dept. had announced a stricter crackdown on cryptocurrency usage and said it would require reporting of all transfers worth $10,000 or more. Also separately, the Fed announced it would take the next step in developing its own digital currency this summer (in a move seen as catch-up to the Chinese who have been testing a Chinese Cryptocurrency for over a year).

In the wake of the Colonial Pipeline mess, after the Close Thursday, it was reported that one of the largest insurance companies in the US has paid hackers $40 million in ransom. In a story broke by Bloomberg, it was revealed that CNA paid the massive ransom to regain control of their computer network in late March. Bloomberg said the company would not confirm the ransom paid, but did confirm the hack and said it was a different hacker group (at least in name) than the one that shutdown Colonial. Welcome to the new age.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,833,181 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 602,616. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 28,735 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 573 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported that vaccinations rates have fallen over 46% from their peak, but at the same time 38% of American adults are fully vaccinated. However, Dr. Fauci (NIH) reiterated Thursday that we will need booster shots, but that we don’t know yet how soon and suggesting the amount of time between vaccination and booster may actually vary by vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 165,912,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,446,477 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 623,846 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,296 new deaths per day. JNJ announced Thursday that its vaccine has joined PFE, MRNA AZN, and 3 others in a study being conducted by the UK. That study is looking to identify the best seasonal booster shots as follow-on to initial vaccination. The EU also reached a deal on when and how to give Covid-19 Vaccine Passports, which is expected to enable an increase in travel across Europe. While India has now passed 26 million cases, a new focus is on a deadly, post-covid infection called “black fungus” that attacks people with weakened immune systems in that region and that their government is just now starting to track.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, but leaned to the green side. India (+1.81%), Taiwan (+1.62%), and Japan (+0.78%) led the gainers while Malaysia (-0.83%) and Shenzhen (-0.81%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets lean even more heavily to the green side, but on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical with outliers like Greece (-4.03%), Denmark (+1.24%), and Norway (+1.41%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.34% open, the SPY implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.28% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and April Existing Housing Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BAH, DE, FL, and VFC. Then after the close there are no major reports.

The bulls are looking to follow up on the strong run they have made since the open Wednesday (which to be fair was at a nasty gap-down level). However, we are just now clawing back to the level we were at a week ago and there remains resistance overhead. While yesterday’s news of the Biden administration wanting to clamp down on tax cheats and proposing a global minimum corporate tax don’t seem to be major market threats, the fear of losing an “easy Fed” remains a cloud that is hanging over the bulls head. So, in that sense, our fight back to the all-time highs remains “climbing the wall of worry.”

Don’t forget it’s Friday. So, consider what you need to do to protect against weekend headline risk. You don’t want to get caught like those longs who ran into the Colonial pipeline news 2 weekends ago. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LAZR, IQ, IRM, XL, NOK, INO, CSCO, INSG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Did the Gap-and-Reverse Mean Support?

May 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets did a classic gap-and-reverse on Wednesday as the bears gapped all 3 major indices significantly lower and then the bulls slowly rallied all day. All 3 indices printed strong white candles, but only the QQQ managed to completely close the gap. On the day, SPY lost 0.28%, DIA lost 0.52%, and QQQ gained 0.11%. The VXX rose almost 5% to 42.35 and T2122 fell down close to the oversold territory at 26.45. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.674% and Oil (WTI) fell over 3% to $63.40/barrel.

Bitcoin had one hell of a roller-coaster day Wednesday. It suffered more than a 30% drop (from over $43,000 to $30,000) before putting in a 30% rally (from $30,000 back up over $42,000) and then finally settled closer to the top of the range ($38,900). While some analysts called this a capitulation, others explain the fall as a reaction to the recent reversal of acceptance of the cryptocurrency. For example, the IRS and DOJ have recently both launched investigations into the main cryptocurrency exchange, China warned their financial institutions not to provide services related to any cryptocurrency, and TSLA announced no longer accepting the would-be currency in payment for their products.

In the April FOMC Meeting Minutes released Wednesday, the Fed basically said what it has been saying for months. They are unconcerned about that they see as transitory inflationary pressures. Specifically, “there is no need to change policy now, but it might be appropriate to consider tapering at some point” was the consensus view. Markets did not react since this was a known position. However, some analysts say the minutes showed the Fed may reconsider if rapid progress continues. As always, the glass is either half full or half empty depending on your perspective.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,802,324 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,949. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 29,975 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 591 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr, Fauci (NIH) told the press that infection rates are decreasing in all 50 states, down 18% nationally from one week ago. He told Axios that should the trend continue, it will be safe enough to resume indoor activities like dining soon. However, in answer to one question he reiterated that it is likely we will need a booster shot within a year of completing vaccination. JNJ announced Wed. evening that 100 million doses of its vaccine are held up in FDA inspection due to contamination problems at one of JNJ’s contract manufacturers (Emergent). No word on whether this is somehow related to JNJ falling behind promised delivery schedules to the EU.

Globally, the numbers rose to 165,629,929 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,433,602 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 637,518 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,360 new deaths per day. The UK is taking heat as it defends continuing to allow direct flights from India amid a 28% surge in cases of the Indian 617 variant. However, the number of cases is still just under 3,000 per day. As if semiconductor shortages were not bad enough already, Taiwan is now battling its worst outbreak (which pales in comparison to neighboring China, let alone the US). So far, businesses have not been ordered shut. However, that country is the world’s largest supplier of silicon semiconductors.

Asian markets were mixed overnight on mostly modest moves. New Zealand (+1.27%) and Australian (also +1.27%) were the largest movers with India (-0.83%) pacing the losses. In Europe, markets are broadly green with only Russia and Norway in the red. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (+0.52%), and CAC (+0.58%) are fairly typical of the continent at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mildly down open. The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a flat -0.03% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BJ, CSIQ, HRL, KSS, WOOF, RL, and TCEHY. Then after the close, AMAT, DECK, ENS, FLO, and ROST report.

After the nasty gap-down, the bulls were in charge all day Wednesday. However, they came up just a bit shy of erasing the gap except the QQQ which just barely got the job done. All 3 major indices now sit just above support that may have held yesterday. It is very hard to trade a gap-and-fade market. It’s even harder when markets may be at a short-term swing point. So, be careful. With that said, it is likely to be Jobless Claims that call the tune this morning…or more to the point, how those claims can be inferred to impact inflation. This is because it remains the fear of losing an “easy Fed” that has powered the bears for some time now.

If you’re trading this market, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bears Look to Follow-up Tuesday Move

May 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened mostly flat on Tuesday and then ground sideways until about 1:30 pm. From there, the bears had control right into the close. This left us with ugly candles as all 3 major indices closed near their lows and also completed something similar to an Evening Star pattern (without the gap-up star) in all three. On the day, the SPY lost 0.86%, the DIA lost 0.74%, and the QQQ lost 0.68%. The VXX rose about 1.5% to 40.45 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 55.83. 10-year bond yields were down slightly to 1.639% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $65.46.

Better than expected earnings from big retailers were offset by a 9.5% drop in Housing Starts. In other news, it was leaked that AMZN is in talks to buy MGM, not for the casinos, but for the media content and as a counter-move to the agreed WarnerMedia merger with DISCA. It also came out Tuesday evening that the DISCA-WarnerMedia deal was structured so that it can easily be sold in the future. CNBC reports that AAPL, AMZN, and DIS might all be suitors to buy the merged group in the future.

In miscellaneous business news, Bitcoin fell below $40,000 for the first time in over 3 months. F also unveiled a new electric F-150 during a visit from President Biden. (The official unveiling will be Wed. evening.) This is just the latest of traditional carmakers moving to compete with the all-electric TSLA. QSR (Burger King) has thrown its hat in the ring of the Chicken Sandwich market with a new menu item launch. And RTX has announced it will cut office space by 25% as it is the latest company to realize that large portions of its work can be done remotely and at a lower cost.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,774,945 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,330. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,004 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 623 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported Tuesday that 60% of American adults have received at least one shot and just under 48% are fully vaccinated. This comes one day after new research showed that the PFE-BTNX and MRNA vaccines appear to be effective against the Indian 617 (double mutation) variant. So, great news on that front.

Globally, the numbers rose to 164,965,197 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,420,858 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 650,594 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,462 new deaths per day. The protests hoping to get the Tokyo Olympics cancelled continued to grow Tuesday, as only 1% of the Japanese population is fully vaccinated now. However, the head of the Intl. Olympic Comm. say the games will be held and safely. In that region, after recent outbreaks China has vaccinated 100 million people in just 9 days in Anhui and Lioning provinces. Meanwhile, in India, the country reported a record of over 4,500 deaths on Wednesday. For our part, the White House announced Monday that the US would share 80 million doses of vaccine with COVAX (the international vaccine sharing initiative) over the next six weeks, which are intended for poorer nations. This includes equal amounts of the PFE, MRNA, JNJ, and AZN vaccines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Hong Kong (+1.42%) and South Koreas (+1.23%) bucked the trend. However, Australian (-1.90%), Japan (-1.28%), Indonesia (-1.27%), and Singapore (-1.22%) were more typical of the region. In Europe, markets are red across the board. The FTSE (-1.14%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.13%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a nasty open. All 3 major indices are implying a one percent or larger gap down at this point in the morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC April Meeting Minutes (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 11:35 am). Major earnings reports before the open include ADI, JD, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIPS, and ZIM. Then after the close SQM, CSCO, CPRT, BEKE, KEYS, LB, SNPS, and ZTO report.

The bears showed up again on Tuesday afternoon and look to get some follow-through at the open today. The impact of supply chains that have been focused on efficiency and short-term profit (just-in-time, low inventories throughout the entire supply chain) continues to wreak havoc. In addition to very short supply of many products (i.e. chips), the situation has created abundant opportunities for companies to use this excuse to flex pricing power. So, inflation fear will continue to weigh heavily on the market psyche and with very limited economic news scheduled that might change the narrative, the bulls will need to dig deep to reverse that momentum.

If you’re trading to the long side, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IQ, HBI, F, DHI, IBB, FIS, GM, MJ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

T Refocuses in A Spinoff Move With DISCA

May 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls had their way on Friday. A large gap-up open was followed-up with a slow grinding drift higher the rest of the day. However, a selloff the last 5 minutes of the day pulled the 3 major indices off their highs. This let the SPY up 1.54%, the DIA up 1.12%, and the QQQ up 2.21%. The VXX fell almost 12% to 38.60 and the T2122 spiked back up just inside the edge of the overbought territory at 82.20. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 2.5% to $65.40/barrel. For the week, markets were down, but ended much closer to flat than to the lows.

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that T is in advanced talks to spin off its WarnerMedia (formerly TimeWarner, owners of HBO, TBS, TNT, and Warner Bothers Studios) into a merger with DISCA (Discovery Channel). This would be the latest refocusing of T (DirecTV was spun off in February) and would also be a move to better compete with NFLX and DIS. Early Monday, T announced that it had reached a deal to do just that.

In other Sunday news, Elon Musk followed up on the TSLA decision to “pause” allowing customers to buy cars with Bitcoin, by agreeing with a tweet that said Bitcoin holders would slap themselves when they find out TSLA had dumped all of its Bitcoin holdings. This implied TSLA had already or will soon sell its $1.5 billion of Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell below $43,000 on this tweet exchange. However, Musk later covered his tail (related to the SEC and his own board) by tweeting that he wanted to be clear that TSLA has not sold any of its BitCoin holdings yet.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,715,951 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 600,147. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,811 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 616 per day (the lowest number since July 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 163,767,582 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,394,487 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 672,304 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,329 new deaths per day. Both Singapore and Taiwan have ordered their toughest restrictions yet on Sunday. However, in Europe, Germany has started to reopen. Also in Europe, GSK (UK) and SNY (France) report they have had positive results in phase 2 trials of their own vaccine. If everything went well, there drug could be ready for release by the end of 2021. I’m not sure if these pharma giants see the pandemic as a continuing problem or are looking toward serving the less developed (unvaccinated now) portions of the world. In India, vaccinations drives to large parts of the country have been suspended as a Cyclone strengthens in the region. However, their number of new cases did fall below 300,000 for the first time in a month on Monday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.74%) and India (+1.67%) led the gains. Meanwhile, Taiwan (-2.99%) and Thailand (-1.76%) led the losses on virus resurgence in those countries. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red with a few minor exchanges bucking that trend at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.63%), DAX (-0.31%), and CAC (-038%) are typical, as usual, so far Monday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to moderate gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.42% open, the SPY implying a -0.40% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.46% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a trio of Fed speakers (Clarida at 10:05 am, Bostic at 10.25 am, and Clarida again at 10:25 am). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close TME reports.

The bears look to try taking some of the shine off of the Bulls 2-day run that ended last week. The coming week should continue to see markets focus on inflation (and the fear of its impacts on Fed policy). We will have Housing data on Tuesday, April Fed minutes on Wednesday, Philly Fed and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PMI data on Friday. There will also be a plethora of Fed speakers during the week. Although the bulk of earnings are behind us, there will be also a few stragglers reporting. So, there is plenty of room for volatility this week.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DDD, FUBO, SENS, NOK, PSTH, TECK, LLY, CCJ, JMIA, BCRX, LUMN, SKLZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Feds Probe Crypto As Musk Likes Doge

May 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

The chop resumed Thursday with a gap higher after Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected and major indices gapped higher and then followed through to the upside in the morning. The afternoon was a roller-coaster ride that ended on a 15-minute freefall. This left us with Bullish Harami candles in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ printed a indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type candle. On the day, the SPY gained 1.17%, the DIA gained 1.26%, and the QQQ gained 0.77%. The VXX fell 9%, but remains at 43.76 and T2122 (4-week New High-Low Ratio) rose just outside the edge of the oversold territory to 20.69.

During the day, it was revealed that Colonial had paid the $5 million ransom for their data and as a result are back to full operations starting Wednesday night. The supply of fuels at the end of the distribution channel should be back to normal by next week. In other news, DIS posted a big earnings beat, but the headline was a miss on revenue and lower than expected subscriber growth.

In legal news, the IRS and Dept. of Justice announced they have begun investigations into Binance, which is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Yet Dogecoin rallied as Elon Musk again tweeted about working with the coin’s developers. Meanwhile, GOOG is leading an effort that includes AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TWTR, IBM, ADBE, and others in a legal filing to support high-skilled workers (and their families) who have been in the US working on H-1B visas. This filing was opposing the legal action taken by a group called Save Jobs USA, who themselves had filed a lawsuit against the Dept. of Human Services for allowing the H-1B visa holders to stay under a different status after the previous administration moves to return them to their country of origin.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,626,097 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 598,540. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 36,648 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 625 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Thursday that it is time to rethink outdoor masking. Later in the day it was announced the CDC will release guideline changes that say vaccinated people no longer need masks either indoor or outdoors. However, the TSA said that the mask mandate for travel will remain into September.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,900,605 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,360,651 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 732,781 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,644 new deaths per day. There are concerns in Europe as the number of cases of Indian “Double Mutation” variant found in the UK has doubled in a week to over 1,300. This is still not out of control yet, but the growth rate is worthy of concern and caution as that country has now come out of restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. China’s Central Bank announced that they are concerned about inflation, but that it was not the top priority at the moment. On that news, Japan (+2.32%) and Shenzhen (+2.09%) led the gainers, while Singapore (-2.18%) led the losses. However, on the whole, the region was modestly higher on the day. In Europe, markets are green across the board on more modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.68%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (+0.74%) are all solidly higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe’s lead. The DIA is implying a +0.45% open, the SPY implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.03% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes April Import/Export Prices and April Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), April Ind. Production (9:15 am), as well as Mar. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to DSEY and PBR before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

The bulls stepped back in on Thursday, but a lot of work remains to be done before they overcome the damage done by the selloff earlier in the week. However, the Chinese Central Bank following the lead of our own Fed may be enough reassurance to let the bulls push again on Friday. Just remember that resistance overhead before getting too crazy on the long side.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Finally, remember that it’s Friday. So consider weekend risk (such as last weekend’s Colonial Pipeline news) and don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMC, DDD, FUBO, LUMN, MDLZ, KHC, PSTH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Gas Flows Again As PPI and Claims On Deck

May 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday, all the major indices gapped lower for the second straight day after Inflation came in higher than expected according to the April CPI (+$.2% vs +3.6% est.). The bears gave us follow-through to the downside the rest of the day, with stocks closing near their lows. The gave us ugly black candles in all 3 major indices, with only the SPY printing a candle signal (Bearish Doji Continuation Pattern). On the day, DIA lost 2.02%, SPY lost 2.12%, and QQQ lost 2.59%. VXX shot over 17% higher to 48.40 and T2122 fell deeper into the oversold territory to 3.92. 10-year bond yields spiked higher to 1.695% and Oil (WTI) rose just under nine-tenths of a percent to $65.85/barrel.

The Colonial pipeline, closed by the cyberattack, restarted operations on Wednesday evening. The company said it will be back to full capacity within 24 hours, but that it might take a few days for the entire fuel supply chain to get back to normal. This came after the weekly crude oil inventories saw a drawdown (and gasoline inventories saw a spike since refineries had no place to ship with the pipeline down).

In interesting crypto news, Elon Musk made headlines related to Bitcoin again. This time, 3 months after the company announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and less than two months after announcing it will allow customers to buy their cars using Bitcoin, TSLA has suspended vehicle purchases using the cryptocurrency. This comes after the Musk claimed concern over the increased use of fossil fuels in Bitcoin mining. However, such mining has always been very electric-intensive and most electricity has always been produced with fossil fuels. So, nothing has really changed since the start of the year, when TSLA moved the opposite direction. Overnight, Bitcoin was down 12% and there were sympathy losses by other cryptocurrencies.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,586,136 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 597,785. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 37,818 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 644 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). After the close, a scientific report was published showing that the PFE-BNTX vaccine is 90% effective against several variants, including the main UK variant. However, the Indian 617 variant (double mutation) was not tested. The CDC also reported that 28 cases of blood-clotting (out of 8.7 million shots given) have resulted from the JNJ vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,139,255 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,347,034 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as it is believed that India has peaked. The world average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 749,588 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,739 new deaths per day. As said, India appears to have made it past the peak of the recent surge. The government in Delhi reported that only one hospital called pleading for oxygen in the last 24 hours (as opposed to dozens and dozens per day previously). Test positivity rate is also down to a third of what it was two weeks ago. Still, the country reported over 362,000 new cases Thursday, which is huge, but far below the 414,000 record of less than a week ago (May 7) and is trending the right direction.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board. Japan (-2.49%), Hong Kong (-1.81%), and Thailand (-1.51%) led the way lower, but losses were over a percent region-wide. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red as well, with just a couple small exceptions as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.04%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.03%) lead the losses, with the CAC being most typical of the rest of the continent for now. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to mixed and modest open. The DIA is implying a -0.47% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.16% open. However, that is in front of Jobless Claims and Producer Inflation data in an hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and 2 Fed speakers (Waller at 1 pm and Bullard at 4 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BABA, ARKO, BILI, BAM, KELYA, EYE, and NICE before the open. Then, after the close, ABNB, DDS, FTCH, FOA, PLT, and DIS report.

With the fuel pipeline coming back online overnight, one of the big drivers of market fear has been reduced, if not eliminated. However, the main issue remains inflation fear (or rather fear that the Fed will need to tighten rates sooner than they have consistently said they would). So, based on yesterday’s out-sized CPI data, it is reasonable to expect the PPI number to also be higher than expected. This will give the bears more ammunition. With that said, markets are very oversold in the short-term and the major indicies (at least the DIA and QQQ) may be at a level where they can find some support.

Again, remember that you don’t have to trade every day…and you certainly don’t have to try to predict the reversal. Waiting for it to play out and then just following the trend is the higher probability play. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t assume they will hold. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching