relief rally Archives - Page 117 of 143

Waiting…

December 11, 2019 by Ed Carter

Tuesday was another blah day with slightly less than normal volume. It seemed like markets were waiting on another shoe to drop. The bulls never could get going, but the bears had no energy either. As a result, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up with indecisive Doji-like candles down about 0.1%. The VXX had no juice either, ending up just 0.17%.

In trade-related news, Congress announced its agreement to approve a revised version of the USMCA (successor to NAFTA). However, there was no new information on the China Trade deal, which the market took as something to fear this close to the next deadline.

The major economic news Wednesday includes Nov. Core CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10 am), and the Fed Statement (2 pm) and Press Conference (2:30 pm). However, with the Fed flat out stating it will be on hold for the rest of the year, no significant reaction is expected. The only earnings of note are LULU. However, just as earlier in the week, all of this is likely to be overshadowed as we inch closer to the Dec. 15 “New Tariffs on China” deadline.

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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but Hong Kong was well in the green. In Europe, all the major markets are mixed. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are pointing to an open about flat on the SPY and DIA with a quarter-percent gap up in the QQQ. It is also worth noting that the Saudi Aramco IPO did very well, pricing at the top end of its expected range and rising 10% on its first day of trading (on the Saudi market). This makes Saudi Aramco the largest company in the world by a wide margin (over MSFT and AAPL).

With impeachment remaining the main domestic story, Europe awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the UK election, and the whole world waiting on the trade deal President Trump told us was done 10 weeks ago, markets may well drift even more. Regardless, we have to trade the chart we get. Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. BLUE, NWL, KEYS, DCP, THO, IPHI, PAA, JBHT, EW, EXEL. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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China Inflation Risk

December 10, 2019 by Ed Carter

Monday was a blah, mildly-down day on light volumes for markets. A day with no news, no earnings, and the overhang of upcoming news later this week just gave the bulls nothing to get themselves started. The SPY lost 0.31%, the DIA lost 0.33%, and the QQQ lost 0.45%.

In trade-related news, there seems to be optimism that the White House and Congress will come to an agreement on the USMCA (successor to NAFTA). Still, US negotiators are scheduled to head to Mexico next week to iron out additional issues such as worker rights as demanded by Congressional Democrats. So, it’s not a done deal yet.

Related specifically to China trade, CNBC’s lead story is adding fuel to the “a deal will be reached soon” camp. It reports (belatedly, I’ve been telling people this for a couple of months) that China has dramatically increased the import of US Soybeans. For the record, while it looks dramatic, they were essentially importing none last year. What they’ve done is to take their US imports back to the pre-Trump 2017 level. It is worth noting that they’ve also increased soybean imports from other countries as well. In a likely more important story, overnight China announced it’s inflation rate has risen to 4.5% last month. This was largely due to a huge increase in pork prices, which shot up due to disease forcing the culling of most herds in Asia.

The major economic news Tuesday is limited to Q3 Non-farm Productivity and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (both at 8:30 am). The only earnings of note are AZO before the open. All of this may be overshadowed again as we inch closer to the Dec. 15 “New Tariffs on China” deadline, the UK election and Fed / ECB rate decisions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red. In Europe, all the major markets are deeply red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to about a half percent gap lower.

With impeachment being the main domestic story, Europe awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the UK election, and markets scared by Chinese inflation, the impetus is to the downside this morning. So, we may see some follow-through to the downside. However, don’t get too far out on a limb chasing. The bulls have been incredibly resilient since summer and are looking for any excuse to run to new highs again. Trade whatever chart we get handed. Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. CPB, ARMK, ALLK, ALKS, KLAC, ENTG, ANGI, CGC, NKTR, TREX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Lull before the Coaster Ride?

December 9, 2019 by Ed Carter

The one-two punch of hope for a trade deal with China and blow-out Jobs data caused a huge gap-up and push Friday morning. However, after 12 pm the grind was on and we treaded water the rest of the day. The SPY ended up 0.91%, the DIA up 1.20% and QQQ up 1.07%. This placed us below, but close to all-time highs again. At the same time, T2122 has risen into the over-bought area at 91.28. The bulls clearly have taken control once again.

Related to the Trade War with China, Bloomberg reported Sunday that “sources” on the Chinese side expect a deal prior to the Dec. 15 deadline…thus forestalling new tariffs. They expect this deal to include a significant rollback of existing tariffs. On the US side, Larry Kudlow said again this weekend that a phase one deal is very close (as it has been since it was “done” two months ago). His main point was that if a deal is done it will President Trump’s decision. (After all, it’s not a deal or its terms that matter. The important thing is who gets credit.)

Potentially complicating a deal is continued unrest in Hong Kong. The largest demonstration in six months took place Sunday. Police estimate 200,000 protestors while organizers put the number closer to 1 million. In either case, it was a “relatively peaceful” demonstration with only sporadic petrol bombs thrown and the only arrests coming prior to the event as a couple dozen organizers were snatched up shortly before the protest.

Monday has no major economic news or earnings reports. However, this may be a roller-coaster week with another Fed meeting (no moves expected), the election in the UK, an ECB rate decision, and more twists in the trade deal saga likely prior to Sunday’s tariff increase deadline.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the green. In Europe, the major markets are also mixed, but mostly red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to an open slightly on the downside of flat from Friday’s close.

With no expected news or earnings today and some major events planned for later in the week (or weekend), today may be a rest day. On the other hand, the bulls can smell those all-time highs again and nothing has changed since Friday’s dramatic run. So, they will be wont to follow through. Either way, we need to trade the chart we get. Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. CC, HP, DVN, EOG, CXO, CPRI, DXC, FMC, KO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Payrolls and China Trade

December 6, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks gapped higher Thursday, mostly on the back of continued hope for a partial trade deal with China. However, it then spent the rest of the day wavering back down and then up again. Markets ended below the open, but still mildly higher. The SPY gained 0.18%, the DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ gained 0.20%. However, keep in mind that even after the second straight day of gains, the indices remain below Monday’s candle. So, there is no clear trend this week.

The main economic news yesterday was the OPEC meeting. They are reportedly considering an additional 500,000 barrel/day production cut (bringing their total cuts to 1.7 million barrels). However, the Thursday session ended with several unresolved disagreements and no customary end-of-meeting press conference.

However, in a potential sign (or not) on the trade war front, Bloomberg is now also reporting that China has “started to process applications” by Chinese companies who are requesting tariff waivers to buy pork and soy beans from the US. Those who are claiming a trade deal is near are citing this as evidence. However, it is worth noting that there are still quotas on how many applications and how much underlying product can have these tariffs waived.

Friday major economic news includes Nov. Nonfarms Payroll and Nov. Unemployment Rate (both at 8:30 am). Expectations are for a large increase in Payrolls as 50,000 GM Strikers get added back into that number this month. Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) is also on the docket. There are no major earnings reports Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. In Europe, the major markets are mostly green (except the FTSE) at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a higher open, up 0.2% – 0.3% from Thursday’s close.

November Payrolls and trade war tea-leaf reading are likely to drive markets Friday. Just remember that we are heading into a weekend where we cannot react to tweets or news until Monday. So, it may be time to take some profits off the table or add some hedges. As traders, our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk, the market is not a lottery ticket.

Sorry, but no Trade Ideas on Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Conflicting Trade Deal News

December 5, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks bounced back Wednesday (at least in terms of gapping) after the previous three down days. An anonymous Bloomberg report claimed progress was being made on how many tariff rollbacks would be part of phase one (partial) trade deal with China. This was enough for the bulls to gap again. However, there was no follow-through in the DIA and QQQ. Meanwhile, the SPY did manage a small bit of post-gap gain. The SPY ended up 0.62%, the DIA up 0.56% and the QQQ up 0.51%. However, it is worth noting that all three remain below their Monday close.

In trade news, we’ve gone from back-and-forth rumor/leaks/reports to the even more bizarre. This morning Bloomberg is reporting positive spin, saying China is in close contact with the US and the US negotiators are confident in a phase-one deal before Dec. 15. Meanwhile, CNBC and others are reporting China is giving little indication of progress and are remaining silent, except to reiterate a weeks-old statement that any phase-one deal must include tariff rollbacks…not just forestalling new tariffs. Regardless of which (or either) may be true, markets seem to be taking this as bullish news.

On the political news front, President Trump abruptly left the NATO meeting after turmoil between himself and other leaders (including being corrected by President Macron during a joint interview and being the butt of jokes between other leaders). Elsewhere, North Korea must have felt it wasn’t getting enough attention. So, it warned the US to prepare for a “Christmas gift” as its self-imposed deadline for progress on a nuclear deal approaches.

In economic news, ADP Nov. Private Payrolls were a big miss (coming in at 67,000 versus 145,000 expected). ISM Non-Mfg. PMI also was light (53.9 versus 54.5 expected). In addition, US Oil inventories were much, much higher than expected (2.5 times predicted). This last report comes as OPEC says it is considering deeper production cuts (although each OPEC member wants other countries to do the cutting).

Major economic news for Thursday includes Imports, Exports, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), as well as Oct. Factory Orders (10 am). Major earning reports will include BF.B, COO, DG, KR, TIF, and ULTA.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. The same is true in Europe, as all the burses (except the FTSE) are green at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap higher of about 0.3% to half a percent.

So, we may be looking at another gap up this morning. Bulls have definitely looking for any reason to run the last couple months. However, there have been some warning signs (ie. Weak Mfg. data) and reasons to worry (blow-off top action?). That being the case, it would be wise not to chase too far either direction. Stick to your trading plan, keep locking-in profits, and move your stops. Our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk. We’re not here to hit the lottery.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. LB, CPRI, CXO, CBS, HAL, VIAB, MNST, KO, DXC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Trade War Give & Take

December 4, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks suffered large gaps lower across the board Tuesday as President Trump threatened new tariffs (France, Italy, Turkey, Austria) and acknowledged that there may be no China trade deal prior to the 2020 Election. Then mid-day the White House acknowledged that the President plans on moving ahead with more China tariffs on Dec. 15^th. However, after some follow-through in the morning, the rest of the day was still spent slowly grinding back to above flat after the gap down. Meanwhile, the VXX ended up 5.80%.

The SPY ended down 0.67%, the DIA down 0.97% and the QQQ down 0.78%. This made for the third straight down day (including the short session Friday). In and of itself, this is causing fear and talk of a repeat of 2018’s December selloff. However, to put this 3-day slide in perspective, we are only 1.5 to 2 percent off the all-time highs. So, we are not exactly seeing the end of the world yet.

After hours, the Co-CEOs of Alphabet (Larry Page and Sergey Brin) stepped down and appointed Google CEO Sundar Pichai as their replacement. Pichai is an Engineer by trade and more of an operations guy than Page or Brin. He was a driving force behind Google moving into non-search projects such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, rural internet, and others.

Despite the President’s Tweets and words yesterday, Bloomberg reports that the US and China are inching closer to an agreement on the number of tariff rollbacks that would be acceptable for a “phase one partial deal.” American sources say they expect the arrangement to be agreed prior to 12/15 (also forestalling another round of tit-for-tat tariffs). However, there is no word on when such an agreement would actually be signed. This story smacks of being another back and forth dueling false rumor around the China Trade War. Nonetheless, stocks are seeming to react very positively to the news.

Overnight, Asian markets were again in the red. In Europe, the major markets are all in the green at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a half percent gap higher on the trade deal rumor.

In other trade news overnight, France and the EU have said they will retaliate over US-threatened tariffs on French goods. In addition, French President Macron, UK PM Johnson and Canadian PM Trudeau were caught on a “hot mic” joking about President Trump. (And we all know how well he can take a joke…so expect more on this front.)

With an apparent attempt at a rebound in the cards this morning, don’t start chasing. Keep in mind that to be successful, a trader must follow their rules…not get caught up in Fear of Missing Out. So, stick to your plan, lock-in profits along the way, move your stops, and maintain your discipline. Remember that your job is to be prepared, make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. TTWO, DXC, ALXN, EA, ECL, WBA, ARMK, KLAC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Trade Wars and Fear

December 3, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The bears controlled markets all day Monday (on the back of another Presidential tweet, as well as bad Mfg. PMI data). As a result, we got the biggest down day in almost two months. The SPY lost 0.85%, the DIA was down 0.98% and the QQQ lost 1.02%. As you’d expect, the VXX rose 5.2%, but only to a still-low level of 17. T2122 has fallen back to the edge of the oversold area at 19.38. However, remember the market can remain oversold longer than we can stay solvent predicting a turn.

The big news for markets Tuesday will be Protectionism and Trade Wars. After the close, the US administration threatened to put 100% tariffs on French products in response to French taxes on digital services. (President Trump also attacked French President Macron verbally at the NATO summit.) The administration said it is also exploring doing the same to Austria, Italy, and Turkey for the same reason.

This threatening and tariffs is a theme with the current administration and follows on the heels of the Sunday night tweet-based new tariffs on Argentina and Brazil steel and Aluminum. Then this morning, the President announced that “it may be better” to wait until after the 2020 election to make a trade deal with China. (Partially acknowledging the reality that China is not in a particular hurry, he is not the one holding all the cards, and he is not going to dictate to another major economic power.)

Futures took this trade war rhetoric badly and markets are likely to react all day. This is because there is no major economic news planned for Tuesday. In addition, there are no major earnings reports before the open. (CRM and WDAY both report after the close.)

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the red (except Shanghai). In Europe, the major markets are mixed at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap down of about half a percent.

So, trade/tariff fears are likely to drive markets in the absence of other news. However, early Cyber Monday results may well add momentum one way or the other. Regardless, the bulls have been very resilient for the last couple of months. So, don’t get too carried away if markets are soft again Tuesday.

Just remember that we are swing traders. By definition, we need down-swings to set up an up-swing. So, continue to look for the next opportunity setting up, lock-in profits, and trade your plan. Remember that your job is to be prepared, make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. VXX, FAZ, SPXU, Z, KR, CPB, JBHT, LEN, KLAC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

President: More Tariffs, Need Neg. Rates and Weak Dollar

December 2, 2019 by Rick Saddler

After the Thanksgiving holiday, stocks spent the half-day Friday grinding a bit lower. The SPY and DIA closed down about 0.35%, while the QQQ closed just under half a percent in the red. This leaves markets very near the all-time highs and still a bit extended from both the T-line and 50sma. However, T2122 has fallen back into its mid-range. So, we are at these highs on less participation recently. Meanwhile, the VXX continues to show very little fear in the market.

In economic news, “Black Friday” was a rousing success as US shoppers spent a record amount for that day ($7.4 billion). Top Retail analysts are also predicting an even bigger “Cyber Monday” (with sales of $9.4 billion forecast). However, even though these are record sales in the US, we should keep this in perspective. Earlier in the month, BABA alone pulled in $38 billion of sales on “Singles Day” (their self-invented Anti-Valentine’s Day)…and that’s just one Chinese online retailer.

Related to the Trade War, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party posted a tweet on Saturday. The tweet said that a US Pledge to scrap new tariffs (12/15) is not an acceptable replacement for rolling back existing tariffs. In addition, China has suspended US military “Port Visits” to Hong Kong and placed sanctions on US-based NGOs. (Over American Pro-Hong Kong Freedom legislation.) Not to be outdone, President Trump took to twitter again late-night placing tariffs on South American Steel and Aluminum, as well as criticizing the US Fed again and demanding that they abandon decades of pro-trade strategy to lower rates and devalue the dollar. (The King of Debt loves him some negative rates and cheap dollars.)

In other political news, CNBC reported over the weekend that President Trump is again working with Capitol Hill Republicans toward another Tax Cut bill. The aim of this new tax cut would be reducing the 22% top individual rate down to 15%. There was no mention at all, not a peep, about any corresponding spending cuts. Apparently, deficits aren’t a real thing in an election year. In addition, other tax brackets were not being addressed at this point. Even so, analysts say this would result in roughly $800 billion in tax reductions by 2025.

Major economic news for Monday is limited to Nov. ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). In fact, this will be a light week for economic news until Friday. The same is true of earnings, with no earnings of note Monday and only a handful the rest of the week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the green. In Europe, the major markets are mostly in the red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a small gap higher of between a quarter and a third of a percent.

Traders should all be back after an extended weekend break. Typically, coming back off a holiday leads to some selling. However, the bulls have been running hard in November, Black Friday had record sales and there is no scheduled Earnings or Economic News to bring things down. So, the bulls may well be ready to resume their run.

Either way, remember we are swing traders. So, continue to lock-in profits, move stops, and trade your plan. Remember that your job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. Long – NRG, APH, WFC, GILD, AES, DHI, CNC, KLAC, ENTG, MTZ. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Assumed Deal – No Fear

November 27, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Markets drifted mildly higher all day on Tuesday on relatively low volume. This allowed the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all to close at another all-time high. So all-in-all it was a very blah day in the market. That said, we remain extended and the VXX continues to be in “dangerously complacent” territory.

In economic news, the President said Tuesday that trade talks “are in the final throes of a very important (Phase One) deal.” This came after the Chinese had announced the previous night that a phone call had been held between chief negotiators. Markets did not react to President Trump’s statement. (Perhaps this was because of the prior overnight announcement or maybe just fatigue of posturing around such a deal.)

On other fronts, the FAA has said again that the BA 737 Max is not ready for recertification (and that it will take all the time needed to reevaluate the plane). This statement completely contradicts BA claims that it will resume deliveries of the 737 Max in December. In fact, the FAA said the Max won’t even make its recertification flight until mid-December and recertification may well take through the end of January. (I’m not sure how BA plans to deliver planes if they cannot fly them to the customers.) This news might have an impact on BA stock.

Major economic news for Wednesday includes Oct. Durable Goods, Q3 GDP, and Weekly Jobless Claims (all at 8:30am). This is followed by Oct. Pending Home sales and Crude Oil Inventories (both at 10 am). The only earnings of note are DE, who report before the Open.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green. In Europe, the major markets are also in the green at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap higher of between a quarter and a third of a percent.

While there is a fair amount of economic news today, it’s quite possible that many traders have already called it a week going into the holiday. Even if this is not the case in the morning, expect light volumes in the afternoon. The point is that it is quite possible we see another low-volume blah day in the markets.

Even so, the bulls have really been relishing their all-time highs. So, we may move higher, even on lower volume. As always, continue to lock-in profits, move stops, and trade your plan. Remember that your job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Sorry, no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist today as trading should be light before Thanksgiving. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Phone Call Rally?

November 26, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The bulls ran hard the first hour of the day Monday (on optimism stemming from hope on the trade war front and merger news). After 10:30 am, markets drifted sideways the rest of the day. The indices closed near their highs for the day. The end result was another all-time high close in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. Even the IWM had a very strong day, breaking out of its range going all the way back to March and (unlike the other indices) it did so on heavy volume.

If there was anything bad on the day, it was that the bullish surge took the T2122 indicator back up well into the overbought area at 88. (T2122 is a 4-week New High to New Low Ratio that has a 0-100 range with over 80 meaning over-bought.) Likewise, all the indices remain extended from their 50-day SMA.

On the news front, overnight China’s top trade negotiator had a phone call with Sec. of Treasury Mnuchin to “address the core issues” last night. This is another signal of progress toward a trade deal and the market is quite likely to take this as bullish. However, in reality, this proves nothing as far as an actual deal goes.

In other news, Congressional Democrats say they expect to deliver their Impeachment report shortly after the Thanksgiving break. However, the door was left open for more hearings and last night a Federal Judge ruled that former White House Counsel McGahn must testify (a decision sure to be appealed). This all could lead to a House Impeachment vote (essentially indictment) before the Christmas break. The process (actual trial) would then be in the hands of the Senate and presided over by Chief Justice Roberts at that point.

Major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Oct. New Home Sales (both at 10 am). In terms of earnings, ADI, BBY, DLTR, and HRL all report before the bell. (BBY reported a beat and raised forecasts.) After the close, ADSK, HPQ, and KEYS all report.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. In contrast, European markets are mixed but mostly red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all just on the green side of flat.

With the holiday coming and the most important economic news coming later in the week, it is quite possible Tuesday is a low-volume blah day in markets. Still, bulls have been hearing only what they want to hear lately. So, that phone call report may set off another rally. Regardless, be careful, as low volume is likely to magnify market over-reactions. Just remember that in the longer-term the market trend is bullish. Continue to take profits, move stops, and trade your plan. Keep in mind that a Trader’s job is to consistently make gains, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. Long – DXC, AMG, NTAP, CXO, HAL, CBS, ARNC, DVA, CDW, ANTM, CTL. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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