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Putin Rattles Saber While WMT Beats

November 19, 2024 by Ed Carter

Markets mostly moved sideways on the day with a little more bullish energy in the Tech sector. SPY opened up 0.08%, DIA opened down 0.08%, and QQQ gapped up 0.31%. From there, SPY and QQQ followed through to the upside until 11:45 a.m. before they gave back about a third of their post-open gains in a long, slow, mostly sideways slide that lasted the rest of the day. Meanwhile, DIA meandered sideway back and forth across its opening “gap” all day. This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs. SPY and QQQ both printed white-bodied Spinning-Top, Bullish Harami candles that remained below their T-line (8ema) without testing. For its part, DIA printed a Doji candle that retested and failed its own T-line. This happened on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Energy (+1.50%) and Basic Materials (+1.24%) were way out front leading the market higher. On the other side, Healthcare (-0.13%) was the only sector below break-even. At the same time, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.69%. VXX fell 3.65% to close at 44.89 and T2122 popped up out its oversold territory into the bottom half of its mid-range to close at 40.82. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to 4.414% while Oil (WTI) popped 3.27% to close at $69.21 per barrel. So, Monday was a divergence day the Big Dogs of Tech, like TSLA (+5.62%), AMD (+2.99%), NFLX (+2.80%), etc., dragged the broader index ETFs higher while the mega-cap DIA lagged.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, SYM, and TCOM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, ADM missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board. Only Malaysia (-0.11%) was in the red. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.89%) and Taiwan (+1.34%) led the gainers. However, in Europe, we see the opposite picture with red across the board at midday. The CAC (-1.16%), DAX (-1.14%), and FTSE (-0.43%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day. DIA implies a -0.52% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.14% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.373% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $68.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to October Building Permits and October Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AS, ESLT, ENR, FUTU, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, WMT, and XPEV. Then, after the close, QFIN, KEYS, LZB, SNEX, and ZTO report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, October Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Index, and the Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, RERE, BERY, DY, NIO, TGT, TJX, WSM, YSG, ZIM, BBAR, SQM, CPA, MMS, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW report. On Thursday, we hear from ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, WMG, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI. Finally, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, AS, ESLT, J, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, and WMT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ENR, FUTU, and XPEV missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.

With that background, the broader markets seem be remaining indecisive relative to the last two closes. Both SPY and QQQ gapped up modestly to start the premarket, but have sold down since that point (although it is worth noting that both candles have significant lower wicks, meaning they are well up off the early session lows at this point). For its part, DIA opened the premarket modestly lower and has followed through to the downside since then, showing it is more decisively bearish. All three major index ETFs remain below their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend is bearish (although we don’t yet have a lower high and lower low to complete a true bear trend). Still, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in its mid-range. So, there is plenty of room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. GOOGL (-0.45%) is leading the way lower while NVDA (+1.57%) is holding up best. As has been the case since the election, TSLA (-0.10%) is out front leading the dollar-volume traded by about 1.5 times over NVDA.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

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TSLA Running Again on Trump FSD Rule Easing

November 18, 2024 by Ed Carter

Friday saw the market open lower. SPY gapped down 0.61%, DIA gapped down 0.40%, and QQQ plummeted 1.11% at the open. From there, all three major index ETFs sold off. DIA sold off until 12:30 p.m. and then meandered sideways along the lows the rest of the day. Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ sold until 2 p.m. before following the DIA in sideways meanders the rest of the day. This action gave us gap-down, large black-body candles in the SPY and QQQ. At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down, black-body Spinning Top candle. All three major index ETFs gapped down through and closed below their T-line (8ema). This happened on above-average volume in the QQQ and slightly below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were red as Healthcare (-2.44%) and Technology (-2.22%) way out in front, like 1.30% out in front, leading the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+1.03%) was the far-and-away the strongest sector for the day. At the same time, SPY lost 1.28%, DIA lost 0.73%, and QQQ lost 2.38%. VXX spiked 7.15% to close at 46.59 and T2122 dropped into the top half of the oversold territory to close at 15.49. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell just a bit to 4.445% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.55% to close at $66.95 per barrel. So, Friday was a bearish day from before the open. It continued South after the open and only found support mid-afternoon (or maybe traders just took off early for the weekend).

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included October Core Retail Sales, month-on-month, which came in lower than expected at +0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and far below September’s +1.0% value). On the headline side, October Retail Sales (month-on-month), which were stronger than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and well down from September’s +0.8% reading). At the same time, the October Export Price Index was much higher than predicted at +0.8% (compared to a forecasted -0.1% and September’s -0.6% number). On the other side, the October Import Price Index was also higher than anticipated at +0.3% (versus a forecasted -0.1% and September’s -0.4% reading). Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was MUCH stronger than predicted at 31.20 (versus a -0.30 forecast and a October -11.90 value). Later, October Industrial Production was improved but down at -0.29% compared to September’s -0.73% number. Then, September Business Inventories (month-on-month) grew less than expected at +0.1% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and an August +0.3% value). Finally, September Retail Inventories increased less than predicted at +0.2% (versus a +0.3% forecast but up from August’s +0.1% number).

In Fed news, on Friday, Boston Fed President Collins warned about the risks of “technology developments.” She said, “We must all be attuned to the very real risks and challenges (of technical innovations).” Later, Collins also spoke to Bloomberg, where she said, “I certainly wouldn’t take (a rate cut in) December off the table. But again, we’re not on a preset path and so we’ll have a look carefully at the data and see what makes sense when we get to that meeting.” Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told Bloomberg, “I think we are going to be looking at rates coming down over the next year along the line the dot-plot said.” He went on to indicate that he sees a quarter point cut in December and another full percentage cut in 2025. (This was a much more open and dovish stance than other Fed members, especially given the Trump inflationary tariff plans.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six or the region’s 12 exchanges in red and the other 6 in green. South Korea (+2.16%) was the biggest gainer while Shenzhen (-1.91%) paced the losses. However, in Europe, we see a much bleaker picture with 13 of that region’s 14 bourses in the red. The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.26%), and FTSE (+0.06%) lead the region in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures are mixed on modest trading. The SIA implies -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.38% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.481% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $67.40 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include. However, after the close, BRBR and TCOM are scheduled to report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report. Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, October Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Index, and the Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AS, ESLT, ENR, FUTU, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, WMT, XPEV, QFIN, KEYS, LZB, SNEX, and ZTO. Then Wednesday, RERE, BERY, DY, NIO, TGT, TJX, WSM, YSG, ZIM, BBAR, SQM, CPA, MMS, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW report. On Thursday, we hear from ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, WMG, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI. Finally, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

With that background, markets seem indecisive in a more volatile way early. The SPY and QQQ both gapped higher to start the early session, but both have printed decent-sized black candles since then, moving back toward flat. Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the premarket, but has rallied back toward flat from the other side. All three remain below their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend has turned down. However, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines, but the T2122 indicator is now back in the upper part of its oversold territory. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning. Again, TSLA (+5.65%) is way out front leading the gainers while NVDA (-2.65%) and NFLX (-2.05%) are far being the reset of the dogs. It is worth noting that TSLA is again the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded with 1.5 times as much money changing hands on that ticker as NVDA, which itself has traded 11 times as much as the next closest ticker.

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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T-line Test as Vax Makers Under RFK Jr Pressure

November 15, 2024 by Ed Carter

Markets opened mostly flat on Thursday. SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened 0.19% higher, and QQQ opened down 0.07%. However, after that start, all three major index ETFs slowly walked a stair-step trend lower all day long. That action gave us large, black-bodied candles in all three. SPY printed what could be called a “Bearish Trader’s Best Friend” signal (Doji followed by a gap-down large black candle). It retested its T-line (8ema) from overhead and managed to close just above the average. Meanwhile, DIA printed a Doji Continuation Pattern (two large black candles separated by a Doji in between), which is also sometimes called a Doji Sandwich. It did not quite retest its T-line. At the same time, QQQ printed a Bearish Trader’s Best Friend like SPY. QQQ also retested (from above) and passed the test of its T-line. Once again, this happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red with Healthcare (-1.74%) and Industrials (-1.48%) way out in front leading the market lower. On the other side, Energy (+0.81%) was the only sector to hang onto green territory for the day. At the same time, SPY lost 0.64%, DIA lost 0.48%, and QQQ lost 0.69%. VXX was just on the red side of flat to close at 43.48 and T2122 dropped but remains just outside of oversold territory at the bottom of its mid-range to close at 24.73. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields climbed again to 4.455% while Oil (WTI) was just up 0.31% to close at $68.67 per barrel. So, Thursday saw a flattish open and then an all-day tepid, step-like selloff that continued the pullback. With that said, all three major ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and that means the trend is bullish, if only modestly.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit better than expected at 217k (compared to a forecast of 224k and the prior week’s 221k reading). On the on-going side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down a touch to 1,873k (versus a 1,880k forecast and the 1,884k previous week value). At the same time, October Core PPI (Month-on-Month) was up a tick as predicted at +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and the September +0.2% reading). For the headline number, the October PPI (Month-on-Month) was also up a tick as anticipated to +0.2% (versus a +0.2% forecast and +0.1% September number). Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger-than-expected inventory build of 2.089 million barrels (compared to a forecasted +0.400 million barrels and in-line with the previous week’s +2.149 million barrels reading). After the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed a $27 billion decline from the prior week, down to $6.967 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler told an Economist conference that the FOMC has made good progress toward both of its mandates. Kugler said, “The United States has seen considerable disinflation while experiencing a cooling but still resilient labor market.” However, she continued, “(a combination of) continued but slowing trend in disinflation and cooling labor markets means that we need to continue paying attention to both sides of our mandate.” She went on, “If inflation doesn’t retreat further it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts. But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.” At the same time, Richmond Fed President Barkin said high union wage settlements (thinking of the BA deal) and incoming President Trump’s broad and high tariffs are among the reasons the FOMC must be cautious.

Barkin told a Real Estate Roundtable, “Being thoughtful, gradual, systemic, methodical …in terms of declaring victory…is not a bad judgment, because you may have cost pressures coming for things like wages or tariffs or whatever happens…On the other hand you can’t ignore things that are disinflationary.” Later, Fed Chair Powell said that the FOMC doesn’t need to be in a hurry to cut rates. Powell said, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.” He continued, “We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

After the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only four of the 12 regional exchanges above break-even. Shenzhen (-2.62%) and Shanghai (-1.45%) were by far the biggest losers while Australia (+0.74%) was far-and-away the biggest gainer. In Europe, we see a similar picture with just four of 14 bourses in the green at midday. The CAC (-0.13%), DAX (-0.11%), and FTSE (+0.07%) lead the region in mixed and modest early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day. The DIA implies a -0.41% open, the SPY is implying a -0.54% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.80% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back “down” to 4.437% and Oil (WTI) is off a third of a percent to $68.45 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Friday include October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), October Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), September Business Inventories and September Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams at 1:15 p.m. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BABA and SPB. Then, after the close, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, BABA and SPB both beat on revenue while missing on earnings. (SPB missed by more than 14% on revenue that was 4.5% higher than expected.)

With that background, the Bears seem in control of the market early. SPY and QQQ both gapped down through their T-line (8ema) to start the premarket and have printed indecisive Doji-type candles since then. At the same time, DIA opened the early session above its T-line but has sold off to be retesting that average now, being just below it but not on the premarket low. That being the case, the short-term trend has turned down or, at best, may be flat in the case of the DIA. However, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish. (We would do well to remember that we are less than 2% from the all-time high in all three major index ETFs.) In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower part of its mid-range. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. INTC (-0.96%) paces the losses while TSLA (+0.50%) is holding up better than the others. It is worth noting that TSLA is again the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded with 4.5 times as much money changing hands on that ticker as NVDA (-0.27%), which itself has traded 7.5 times as much as the next closest ticker. Finally, remember it’s Friday. So, prepare your account for the weekend by lightening up positions or hedging if appropriate.

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

AMD to Lay Off 1k With PPI Data Ahead

November 14, 2024 by Ed Carter

Wednesday saw the market open flattish and meander back and for the around the gap. SPY opened 0.08% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. As mentioned, after that open, all three major index ETFs meandered back and forth below and above that initial “gap” all day. This action gave us indecisive, Spinning Top or Doji-like candles in all three, which all also remain above their T-line (8ema). This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower. On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%. VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel. So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day. For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high. With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included October Core CPI (Month-on-Month), which came in exactly as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.3%). On an annualized basis, October Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also came in just as expected at +3.3% (versus a forecast and September value of +3.3%). At the same time, the headline October CPI (month-on-month) was also as anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.2%). On an annualized basis, October CPI (Year-on-Year) was +2.6% (versus a forecast of +2.6% and the September reading of +2.4%). Later, the October Federal Budget Balance showed a significantly higher than expected deficit of $257.0 billion (compared to the $226.4 billion forecast and far higher than the September $64.0 billion shortfall). Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a unexpected drawdown of 0.777 million barrels (versus a predicted 1-million-barrel increase and the previous week’s 3.132-million-barrel increase).

In Fed news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told Bloomberg, “I’ve got confidence about that (inflation heading down toward 2%), but we need to wait.” He continued, “We’ve got another month or six weeks of data to analyze before we make any (more rate cut) decisions.” Later, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told a Memphis Economic conference that the Fed is in the “last mile” of the inflation fight and the FOMC can now afford to be deliberate. Musalem said, “In my baseline scenario, based on current information, I expect inflation to converge toward 2% over the medium term … but recent information suggests to me that the risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen.”

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed growing confidence that inflation is headed back to 2%. Schmid said his confidence is “based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.” He continued, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.” Speaking about the deficit, Schmid said, “As an optimist, my hope is that productivity growth can outrun both demographics and debt … But as a central banker, I will not let my enthusiasm get ahead of the data or my commitment to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.” (In other words, he basically ducked the question.) At the same time, Dallas Fed President Logan said, “I anticipate the FOMC will most likely need more rate cuts to finish the journey” (meaning bringing inflation down to 2%).

After the close, BZH, CSCO, HI, SARO, and TTEK reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AGRO and NU missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line. On the other side, BV, GPCR, and HP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red with four exchanges above break-even and eight below-water. Shenzhen (-2.83%) Hong Kong (-1.96%), and Shanghai (-1.73%) were by far the biggest movers. In Europe, with the exception of Athens (-0.3%) we see green across the board at midday. The CAC (+1.08%), DAX (+1.32%) and FTSE (+0.40%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning. DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.443% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.70% to $68.91 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, and October PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed Chair Powell (3 p.m.) and Fed member Williams (4:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, and ZK. Then, after the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, BN, EXFT, JD, NTES, NICE, SIEGY, and have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, NOMD, SBH, DIS, and ZK all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BILI beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings. However, AAP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets seem tepid to modestly bullish and perhaps trying to put in a bottom to their three-day pullback. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher. Since that point they have put in small candles with SPY and QQQ printing small, Doji-like candles and DIA giving us a small, white, Marubozu candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trends remain bullish. In terms of over extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are stretched above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning. AMD (+0.99%) is the biggest price mover (on overnight news of a 4% global layoff). Meanwhile, TSLA (-0.47% on $280 million traded) is the leader in dollar-volume traded. (Again, this is the post-Trump win norm, but NVDA had been in that leader spot for 18 months prior to the election.)

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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CPI and More Fed Talk Ahead

November 13, 2024 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Tuesday. DIA was the only one of the major index ETFs who’s open (+0.14%) was even worth noting. After that open, DIA ground sideways for 15 minutes before selling off for three hours, bouncing modestly for an hour and then selling modestly into the close. For its part, SPY traded sideways for 30 minutes, then followed DIA south, bouncing more strongly at 1 p.m. and then selling off modestly again at 2:45 p.m. Meanwhile, QQQ chopped sideways for an hour, sold off more modestly than its peer index ETFs until 1 p.m., rallying almost back to flat by 2:45 p.m. and then drifting lower. This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in the SPY and QQQ (Spinning Top type). For its part, DIS printed a big, black, Bearish Engulfing candle. This happened on average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which fell a tick to 2.9% (down from September’s 3.0% reading).

In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin indicated he feels the FOMC is in a good position. Barkin said, “A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.” He continued, “The Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.” Later, Fed Governor Waller urged the private sector to embrace payment system innovations like stablecoins, saying “(the FedNow real-time payment system) can bolster private sector efforts to link financial institutions in a decentralized and diverse banking system.” In talking about “synthetic dollars,” Waller said, “These assets could have a lot of potential benefits and eliminate inefficiencies in the financial system.” Even later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he thinks the FOMC monetary policy is “In my judgment we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go in cutting interest rates.”

After the close, CAE, CART, FIHL, FLUT, NATL, RKT, and SWKS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, DOX and OXY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, LNW and SPOT beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, PLUS and NGL missed on both the top and bottom line.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red side again. Six of the 11 exchanges were in the red as South Korea (-2.64%) and Japan (-1.66%) led the way lower. In Europe, we see an even weaker picture with just two of 14 bourses in the green at midday (although on much smaller moves than Asia). The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.14%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day ahead of CPI data. The DIA implies a -0.30% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.26% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.416% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes October Core CPI and October CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), October Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (8:30 a.m.) and Williams (9:30 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, and KMDA. Then, after the close, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, HBM and JHX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, DOLE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background markets seem to be continuing Monday’s modest retreat. All three of the major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed small black candles since then. QQQ has the largest of the black bodies in the early session. (Again, remember that this is before CPI data.) However, all three also remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain bullish. In terms of over extension, the premarket action has brough SPY, DIA, and QQQ back within a normal distance above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. (This small pullback is just what the doctor ordered for the health of a rally. With that said, we have to remember that every Bearish trend starts with a pullback.) In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. By far the biggest mover, both in terms of price change and dollar-volume traded is TSLA (+1.86% on $1.0 billion traded) which is a percent greater move than the next ticker (either direction). It is also almost four times the dollar-volume traded as NVDA (+0.25% on $261 million traded). This continued the massive change in these factors since the Trump win. (You will have to decided for yourself if this signals an end to AI exuberance or is just a “Trump will pay Musk back” anomaly.)

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Global Markets Down US Premarket Tepid

November 12, 2024 by Ed Carter

Monday saw the market open higher. SPY gaps up 0.28%, DIA gapped up 0.40%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%. From there, SPY meandered sideways in the gap the rest of the day. Meanwhile, after the open, DIA continued to rally for 30 minutes before trading sideways with a slight bearish trend and ending the day about half way back to its opening level. As for QQQ, after the open gap up, it immediately sold off for 30 minutes recrossing the opening gap in the first 15 minutes before meandering sideways below Friday’s close the rest of the day. This action gave us, gap-up black-bodied Hanging Man candles in both the SPY and QQQ. (Both printed new all-time highs and SPY did manage to print a new all-time high close.) At the same time, DIA gave us a gap-up, Shooting Star or Inverted Hammer type of candle that printed another all-time high and all-time high close. This happened on above-average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green with Financial Services (+1.72%) way out in front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.95%) was again by far the biggest loser. At the same time, SPY gained 0.10%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ lost 0.06%. VXX fell slightly to close at 44.65 and T2122 rose back into the bottom of its overbought territory, closing at 83.16. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields rose slightly to 4.306% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.13% to close at $68.18 per barrel. So, Monday saw a divergent, if mostly sideways day among the three major index ETFs. It certainly felt a little toppy in nature.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

After the close, GRAB reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, IAC beat on revenue while missing (massively) on earnings. On the other side, LYV missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-2.84%), Taiwan (-2.33%), and Shanghai (-1.39%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape with region-wide losses at midday. The CAC (-1.31%), DAX (-0.93%), and FTSE (-0.98%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day. DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and QQQ implies a -0.07% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.361% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $68.21 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.). We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.), Kashkari (2 p.m.), and Harker (5 p.m.). Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, and TSN. Then, after the close, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams. On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, AZN, HD, and SLVM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, THS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, ONON, SE, and TME beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, IGT and PTVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background markets seem tepid at these heights. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket modestly lower and have given us indecisive Doji-like candles since that start. However, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain very bullish. In terms of overextension, all three are stretched above their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator is now in (the lower end of) its overbought territory. So, while there may be a bit more room to run, the market is in need of a pause or pullback for the health of the rally. With that said, we have to remember that markets can stay over-baked longer that any of us can remain solvent betting on a reversal. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. INTC (-1.44%) leads the losses while NVDA (+0.41%) paces the gains. Once again, TSLA (-1.08%) is far-and-away the dollar-volume leader, having traded a very heavy $3.4 billion so far this morning…nine times as much as NVDA, which itself has traded 10 times as much as the third-place stock. (This is definitely a Trump win phenomenon.)

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

TSLA Soaring Again to Start Veteran’s Day

November 11, 2024 by Ed Carter

Markets gave us a mixed start to the day Friday. SPY opened 0.09% higher, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ opened 0.08% lower. We also saw a divergence from that point, at least early. SPY immediately began to rally and chased new highs right up to 2:45 p.m. From there, SPY saw profit-taking all the way into the close. At the same time, after the open, DIA sold for 10 minutes off from the open before joining SPY in a rally until 11:30 a.m. It then chopped sideways until 2 p.m. before rallying again to the highs at 2:45p.m. At that point, DIA also took profits into the close. For its part, QQQ sold off a quarter percent after the open, chopping around until 11 a.m. when it followed the larger-cap index ETFs in a rally that lasted until 1:45 p.m. Then QQQ ground sideways for an hour only to selloff back to Thursday’s close and grind sideways just above that the rest of the day.

This action gave us, white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs. The DIA gave us a gap-up Spinning Top candle that registered as a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. SPY printed a gap-up, white-bodied candle with significant upper wick. It came within 36 cents of the $600 level while delivering a new all-time high and all-time high close. Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a gap-down, white-bodied Spinning Top that also printed a new all-time high and all-time high close. For the week, QQQ gained 5.48%, SPY gained 4.76%, and DIA gained 4.69%.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+1.21%) way out in front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Basic Materials (-1.10%) lagging way, way behind all other sectors (by more than 1%). At the same time, SPY gained 0.43%, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ gained 0.12%. VXX dropped another 0.71% to close at 44.77 and T2122 fell back to just outside of its overbought territory, closing at 77.27. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to a still high 4.302% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.63% to close at $70.46 per barrel. So, Friday saw more of the Bulls being in control as the election day and post-election rally continued.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary Michigan Nov. Consumer Sentiment, which came in up to 73.0 (compared to a forecast of 71.0 and a October reading of 70.5). At the same time, Preliminary Michigan November Consumer Expectations were also up to 78.5 (versus a 74.1 October value). Meanwhile, the Preliminary Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations fell a tick to 2.6% (compared to a forecast and October reading of 2.7%). Finally, Preliminary Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up a tick to 3.1% (versus a forecast and October value of 3.0%).

After the close, PBR reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Click for video

In stock news, on Friday, PNC announced plans to expand by adding 100 new bank branches with an investment of $500 million. Later, BA announced it plans to repay the employees it furloughed during the recent strike for the wages they lost. However, BA still plans to proceed with the 10% cut in its global workforce (17,000 jobs worldwide). At the same time, Reuters reported that STLA and its Chinese partner Leapmotor have scrapped plans to build a second electric vehicle model at the STLA plant in Poland. Instead, the joint venture is considering making that second model a STLA plant in Germany. Later, Bloomberg reported that BA is considering a sale of its Jeppesen navigation business for $6 billion. Reportedly, potential suitors include private equity firms, which have expressed interest in that unit. At the same time, Reuters reported exclusively that BA and SPR are very close to reaching a funding agreement that would give SPR a lifeline of cash. (The deal will reportedly be announced as soon as this weekend. The exact details on amounts were not disclosed.)

Elsewhere, TSLA closed above the $1 trillion market cap level for the first time. This comes after a massive 29% gain for the week on speculation the Trump administration will pay back CEO Musk for hi support. After the close, BNKG announced it expects to cut jobs as part of a broader cost-cutting program. (No specifics were announced.) At the same time, ENPH said it would be cutting about 500 employees and contractors (about 17% of the workforce). Later, BROS CEO Barone told CNBC that it plans to open 160 new coffee shops in 2025. (BROS currently has 950 locations.) Meanwhile, CRM announced it needs to hire more than 1,000 workers to help it sell its generative AI agent product.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, China approved a $1.4 trillion plan to bolster its economy by selling bonds and allowing local governments to refinance their massive, “hidden” (off books) debt loads. The theory is that this will free up resources for the local governments to spend elsewhere, thus stimulating the economy. At the same time, a US District Judge in CA ruled that META CEO Zuckerberg is not personally liable in the 25 lawsuits alleging that his company purposefully addicted children to social media. However, the cases against META itself (brought both by many States Attorney General and the families of alleged victims) were allowed to proceed. Later, TM “announced” that CA-led (but now in place in 12 states and the District of Columbia) electrical vehicle mandates that begin being phased in next year are “impossible to meet.” TM went on to say, if the mandates are not changed, US customers will see fewer car choices in many states.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 114k vehicles in the US over airbag concerns. Later, TPR announced it has paused integration of CPRI while it appeals a US court decision to clock the $8.5 billion acquisition. At the same time, a US federal appeals court ruled that WBD’s CNN unit must face a now-revived defamation lawsuit from “Project Veritas” which CNN had reported was responsible for promoting disinformation and doxing. Later, the CA Public Utilities Commission increased reporting requirements on autonomous vehicle “incidents” (now at a trip level) for collisions, traffic citations, and stoppage events (when the self-driven vehicles get stuck). GM, GOOGL, and TSLA are the companies immediately impacted.

Meanwhile, AAL lost its appeal of the US Justice Dept. decision to block the airline’s partnership with JBLU. The US 1^st District Court of Appeals three judge panel ruled unanimously that the lower court judge’s decision was correct in siding with the Justice Dept. and FTC. (However, this may be a non-event as the Trump administration is widely expected to be more corporate-friendly, including in terms of mergers and acquisitions. So, the partnership could be floated again after January.)

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the New York Times reported sources tell it the new Trump administration is preparing to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and also shrink the size of some national parks and monuments to open up land for the oil industry to drill. (The US is already the world’s largest oil producer, but one campaign mantra of Republicans was “drill baby drill.”) In other oil news, the Dept. of Energy announced Friday that it had purchased its last batch of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with a contract to buy another 2.4 million barrels for delivery in April through May. (This is the final batch because the Republican House rescinded about $2.05 billion of the funds the previous Democratic House had earmarked to replenish the reserve.) So, 180 million barrels was released from the reserve at a sale price of $95/barrel. Then the Dept. of Energy has replenished 59 million barrels at an average cost of $76/barrel, netting about $3.5 billion in profit but leaving the reserve 121 million barrels short of full capacity but also with $20.5 billion more money in hand and presumably falling oil prices under the new administration should they decide to complete the replenishment. Elsewhere, MCO said Friday that the risks to US fiscal health increased after the election of Trump. (However, this is based on an assumption that Trump will actually implement the policies he promised during the campaign. This includes corporate and personal tax cuts, across the board import tariffs, and deporting a significant chunk of the US labor force. That is far from certain as Trump isn’t known for keeping promises.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just four of the 12 exchanges above break-even. Shenzhen (+2.03%) was by far the biggest gainer while Hong Kong (-1.45%) and South Korea (-1.15%) paced the losses. However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday Monday. The CAC (+1.17%), DAX (+1.37%), and FTSE (+0l.75%) lead the region high on broad-based gains in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward more gains. The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bonds are down to 4.306% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.85% to $69.08 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Monday due to Veteran’s Day. US Bond markets are closed for the day, but stock markets are open as usual. Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARMK and ICL. Then, after the close, GRAB, IAC, LYV, and TALO report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations are reported. We also hear from Fed members Waller, Kashkari, and Harker. Then Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams. On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, TSN, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG. Then Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, ICL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, ARMK missed on revenue while reporting in-line on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the market is bullish again early Monday. All three major index ETFs made modest gaps higher to start the premarket. Since then, they have all followed-through with white-body candles so far in the early session. SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sit at new all-time highs again as we await the opening bell. Obviously, all three being far above their T-lines (8ema), the short-term trend is very bullish. The mid-term trend is now also very bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three as it has been for years. However, with regard to extension, all three major index ETFs are extended far above their T-line while the T2122 indicator remains just outside the bottom of its overbought territory. So, the market is stretched, but theoretically still has some room to push even higher. (Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on the reversal.) At the very least, we can say the Bulls have momentum but are in need of at least a rest, if not pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning with TSLA (7.09%) far out in front of the rest on what presumably is more of the “Trump paying back Musk” trade. INTC (-0.61%) is by far the weakest of the 10. In terms of trading volume, TSLA has traded five times more than NVDA (+0.70%), which is usually the dollar-volume leader. (That situation has been the new normal under the post-Trump win market, but is exactly the opposite of the “AI is the new thing” trade of the last 18 months.) Finally, do not forget that it’s Veteran’s Day, with Bond markets closed, but not a stock market holiday.

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More All-Time Highs and More Earnings

November 8, 2024 by Ed Carter

On Thursday, markets opened higher again. SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.57%. From there, SPY and QQQ followed-through with a rally that lasted until 12:50 p.m. At that point, both had an afternoon rest before QQQ began to rally again at 2 p.m. and SPY followed at about 2:45 p.m. However, both SPY and QQQ also took profits the last 30 minutes of the day. At the same time, after its open, DIA just meandered sideways around that opening gap all day long. This action gave us gap-up white bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a modestly gap-up Doji in the DIA. SPY and QQQ did have smaller upper wicks on large white bodies. All three major index ETFs are stretched above their T-line (8ema) now. This happened on above-average volume in the DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green with Technology (+2.08%) way, way out front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Financial Services (-1.26%) and Communication Services (-1.07%) lagged far behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 1.58%. VXX dropped another 3.53% to close at 45.09 and T2122 fell but remained just inside of its overbought territory, closing at 80.80. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell sharply to a still high 4.330% while Oil (WTI) rose 0.50% to close at $72.05 per barrel. So, the day saw follow-through (especially in the tech area) to Wednesday’s post-election spike. The mega-cap DIA was torn between big profit-taking among financials and the pops from INTC (which is soon going bye-bye from that index), AMZN, AAPL, and MSFT. Among the market’s big dogs TSLA (+2.90%), led NVDA (+2.25%) in dollar-volume traded although both were over $30 billion and less than $35 billion. So, it was a lot closer than it normally is in terms of trading. It is also worth noting that SPY, DIA, and QQQ all printed another new all-time high and another new all-time high close.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which were up slightly but also slightly better than expected at 221k (compared to a forecast of 223k and a prior week reading of 218k). On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims came in higher than expected at 1,892k (versus a 1,880k forecast and the prior week’s 1,853k value). At the same time, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity (Qtr.-on-Qtr.) was up but not as strong as predicted at +2.2% (compared to a +2.6% forecast and a Q2 reading of +2.1%). Meanwhile, the Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs were both down sharply but still far higher than anticipated at +1.9% (versus a forecast of +1.1% and a Q2 reading of +2.4%). Later, Sept. Consumer Credit came in DRAMATICALLY lower than predicted at $6.00 billion (less than half of the $12.20 billion forecast and down from August’s $7.64 billion number). Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed another decline, falling $19 billion on the week down to $6.994 trillion.

Prior to the Fed announcements, the ever attention-needy Trump camp leaked to CNN that the ex-President “would likely allow” the FOMC Chairman to serve out the rest of his term rather than firing him. During his Press Conference, Fed Chair Powell said he gave one-word “No” answers indicating he would not resign, even if asked, and also that Presidents do not have the legal authority to fire a Fed Chairman. (However, it is worth noting that Chair Powell’s term ends in 2026.)

In Fed news, on Thursday, the Fed Interest Rate Decision was to cut rates 0.25% as expected. This reduces the Fed Funds rate to 4.75% – 5.00%. The vote for this cut was unanimous. In its statement, the FOMC said, “The economy has continued to expand at a solid pace,” going on to say “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” It is also worth noting that the FOMC removed a line from the September statement which had said the committee had “gained greater confidence that inflation was moving toward its 2% target.” (This may reflect the reasoning for, or result from the decision to, cut only a quarter point instead of the previous half percent cut.) The statement summation was, “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.” Regarding labor markets, the statement said, “(labor market) conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” (This was a change from language noting a slowing labor market in September.)

Click for video

In other news from the Fed Chair press conference, Powell said “In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions.” He continued to be pestered by questions about what a new Trump administration means for Fed policy, answering that, “We don’t guess, speculate, and we don’t assume what future policy choices will be” (going on to state the Fed boilerplate “data driven” approach). This press focus on Trump and what Trump means for the economy led to a shortened press conference.

After the close, AFRM, AKAM, AMN, ANET, AXON, CIVI, ED, DBX, DXC, FTNT, G, PODD, MTD, MSI, NWSA, OPEN, OVV, PINS, QDEL, REZI, RNG, TOST, and TTD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CPAY, EOG, and EXPE missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AL, ABNB, AMRC, BHF, CPRI, EXPI, LGFA, and SOLV beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, AGL, SQ, DKNG, EVH, MNST, RIVN, and RUN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, Mercury Research reported that INTC’s share of the notebook, desktop, and server market segments is the lowest since 2006. The report said that AMD and ARM were the competitors picking up the lost share. (Still, it is worth noting that INTC continues to have a 66% in the desktop, 69% in the notebook, and a 70% share in the server space.) Later, USM announced it has agreed to sell some of its spectrum licenses to T for $1 billion. At the same time, DUK announced that it expects to see between $2.4 billion and $2.9 billion in costs to restore facilities damaged by Hurricanes Debby, Milton, and Helene. Later, GM announced it is ending production of Cadillac XT4 SUVs as the company shifts more toward electric vehicles. After the close, Bloomberg reported that BLK is in talks with $70 billion hedge fund Millenium Mgmt. over purchasing a stake in the private fund.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the Bank of England also cut its based rate by 25 basis-points to 4.75%. Elsewhere in Europe, German Chancellor Scholz is now facing increasing pressure from business groups (and opposition parties) to call new elections after the collapse of its three-way coalition. Back in the US, after the Fed rate cut, the Fed Funds Futures market is showing that trades are indicating a 74.5% probability of another quarter-point cut in December. The other 25.5% probability foresees no cut or increase in December.

In Middle-East War news, on Thursday, the IDF announced it expanded its operations in Northern Gaz, claiming that Hamas has regrouped. In addition, Israeli strikes in that area killed dozens Thursday, including 27 in one airstrike on a multi-story building in a refugee camp. Elsewhere, the Gaza Ministry of Health reported nearly 44k Palestinians have been killed and another 103k injured since Israel’s responses to the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack began.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five of the 12 exchanges in green and the other seven below break-even. Hong Kong (-1.07%) was well out in front of the other losers while New Zealand (-1.50%) and Singapore (+1.39%) were well in front of the other gainers. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with nine of the 14 bourses showing red at midday. The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.60%), and FTSE (-0.78%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day. DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying a -0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.31% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.308% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.24% to $71.46 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday brings Michigan November Consumer Sentiment, Michigan November Consumer Expectations, Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations and Sept. Retail Inventories (all at 10 a.m.). We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (11 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADNT, WMS, ATSG, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, BAX, BLMN, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNH, ERJ, FLO, FLR, FTRE, GLP, GTN, IEP, KOP, LAMR, NRG, PAA, PAGP, RBA, SONY, TIXT, and PARAA. Then, after the close, CEPU reports.

So far this morning, ADNT, AMRX, BAX, ERJ, PARAA, and TIXT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, BLMN, FLO, and SONY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CLMT, FTRE, IEP, and NRG beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, WMS, FLR, GTN, and LAMR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is basically undecided so far in the premarket. SPY and QQQ did gap modestly higher to start the early session, but have printed black-bodied candles since that point and are back to basically flat. Meanwhile, DIA started premarket a bit lower, and has printed a small white-body candle to also climb back to basically break-even from Thursday’s close. With all three being far above their T-lines (8ema), the short-term trend is very bullish. The mid-term trend has also reversed since the surprise election result and is now bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three. Basically, the only thing you need to know is that all three major index ETFs now sit at all-time highs. With regard to extension, all three major index ETFs are extended far above their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator remains just inside the bottom of its overbought territory. So, the market is stretched, but theoretically still has some room to push even higher. At the very least, we can say the Bulls have the momentum but are in need of at least a rest. (Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on the reversal.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with only AAPL (+0.10%) clinging to green territory. Meanwhile, INTC (-0.91%) leads the pack lower after leading the gains Thursday. In terms of trading volume, NVDA (-0.07%) and TSLA (-0.03%) are neck-and-neck in terms of dollar-volume traded and both have traded 12 or more times as much as the next closest stock. However, it is a lighter volume trading premarket than usual. Finally, do not forget that it’s Friday…pay day. So take some money off the table to pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle. (Happy Birthday on Sunday to my fellow Marines and don’t forget Monday is Veteran’s Day, but not a market holiday.)

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Trump Wins and Will Control All Branches

November 6, 2024 by Ed Carter

On Tuesday, markets opened modestly higher and followed-through with a rally until about 1 p.m. SPY gapped up 0.18%, DIA opened just 0.03% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.34%. From there, all three major index ETFs rallied, more quickly at first and then slower after the first hour, but reaching about 1 p.m. before slumping sideways. SPY and DIA rallied the last few minutes to go out at or near highs while QQQ never quite regained the highs. This action gave us large, white-bodied candles in all three of the major index ETFs. SPY printed a Best Friend type candle (Spinning top followed by a gap-up Marubozu candle) to cross back above its T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, DIA gave us a large, white-bodied candle with small wicks at each end that crossed above its T-line and above its 50sma. For its part, QQQ printed another Best Friend type signal with a small wick at the top, but it also crossed above its T-line. This happened on average volume in the DIA, and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+1.90%) and Industrials (+1.76%) out front leading the market higher. On the other side, Communication Services (+0.62%) lagged behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 1.20%, DIA gained 1.02%, and QQQ gained 1.28%. VXX dropped 5.36% to close at 51.55 and T2122 jumped higher to the top end of its mid-range, closing at 72.41. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to 4.289% while Oil (WTI) rose 0.88% to close at $72.10 per barrel. So, Tuesday was a bullish day across the market, maybe on relief election advertising is done or anticipation one way or the other in the election outcome. No matter the reason, it was the Bulls’ day as Bears never found any traction. For what it is worth, DIA broke through its downtrend line.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Sept. Exports, which came in down a bit to $267.90 billion (compared to an August reading of $271.80 billion). At the same time, Sept. Imports were up to $352.30 billion (versus an August value of $342.20 billion). Together, this gave us a Sept. Trade Balance with a larger than predicted deficit of -$84.40 billion (compared to a forecast of $83.80 billion and an August reading of -$70.80 billion). Later, the Oct. S&P Global Services PMI was down to 55.0 (versus a forecast of 55.3 and a September reading of 55.2). At the same time, Oct. S&P Global Composite PMI was up, but not as much as anticipated at 54.1 (compared to forecast of 55.3 and a September value of 55.2). Later, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI were stronger than expected at 56.0 (versus a 53.8 forecast and a Sept. reading of 54.9). This included an Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index that was up more than predicted at 53.0 (compared to forecast of 48.0 and a September value of 48.1). At the same time, the Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were down but also a tick higher than predicted at 58.1 (versus a forecast of 58.0 and down from September’s 54.9 number). Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks were reported with a significantly larger inventory build than anticipated at +3.132 million barrels (compared to forecast of +1.800 million barrels and a previous week value of -0.573 million barrels).

After the close, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVN, GMED, GO, JKHY, KGC, LUMN, MASI, MCHP, MRC, NOG, VIV, and TX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AFG, FYBR, IFF, and NE beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, PAAS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, EXAS and PBA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

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In stock news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported a survey that found that the major mass retailer like WMT, TGT have imported less holiday product this year than recent years based on the shorter and expected to be weaker holiday sales. However, even more discounted retailers like DG and DLTR imported the same amount of Christmas items than in past years. The article also noted that the US National Retail Foundation has reported that November-December sales grew 2.5%-3.5% in 2023. This was the slowest year-on-year holiday sales growth since 2018. Later, EMR proposed a buyout of the rest of AZPN at an offer of $240 per share (or $6.53 billion). This was a modest premium on Monday’s closing price for AZPN of $237.59.

Elsewhere, TSLA CEO Elon Musk responded to previous Reuters reports related to the company’s long-promised and never delivered $25k electric vehicle. Musk responded Tuesday that it was “pointless” to build a cheap electric vehicle that was not a robotaxi. Later, CVX, BP, SHEL, and OXY announced they were temporarily halting operations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens and is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday morning. At the same time, Reuters reported that ADM has found additional accounting errors after the company was forced to restate six years of financials in March. (ADM will amend its 2023 annual report as well as Q1 and Q2 reports of 2024 following the finding of the new error.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, AMZN announced that it remains committed to a nuclear power plant adjacent to its PA data center campus…despite the plant project (from TLN) being rejected by the Federal Energy Regulatory Comm. (The deal was opposed by some utility industry groups.) It is unclear how TLN and/or AMZN intend to overcome the regulatory denial. At the same time, Reuters reported that a Moscow Court fined AAPL about $37k on Tuesday for refusing to delete two podcasts from the Apple Music platform. (This is the opposite of the ruling against GOOGL, which was for deleting YouTube channels of Moscow propaganda.) There was no word on whether the AAPL fine doubles daily after the payment deadline the way GOOGL’s fine has doubled to now be more money than exists in the world. Later, a federal judge dismissed a proposed class-action lawsuit that had been filed against GOOGL. (The case alleged GOOGL was profiting by refusing to refund millions of dollars stolen from victims in Google Play Store gift card scams.)

Elsewhere, the UK Anti-trust Regulator approved the $19 billion merger of VOD with British firm Hutchinson’s Three UK, stating that the country’s need for investment outweighed the competition concerns. (The agency had blocked the merger nine years prior on the basis of its anti-competitive impacts.) Later, Reuters reported that NFLX is under investigation for tax fraud in France and the Netherlands with searches of the offices of the company in the two countries took place Tuesday. At the same time, South Korea fined META $15.67 million over its collection of user personal data and giving it to advertisers without user consent. Later, Reuters reported that AAPL will be the first company y to face fines under the EU’s Digital Markets Law after regulators found that AAPL did violate the law back in June. The report said the fine will likely be announced this month. (The maximum fine would be 10% of AAPL’s global sales.) After the close, the FTC sued DAVE, alleging the fintech company misleads consumers by claiming to offer cash advances to gain users of its app, but which few users receive.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, NVDA passed AAPL to again become the world’s most valuable company based on market cap. NVDA closed at a market value of $3.43 trillion, slightly ahead of AAPL’s $3.38 trillion. (Poor MSFT is a distant third at $3.06 trillion.) Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that bond investors have priced in scenarios that would benefit from a Harris election victory while under-investing on positions likely to benefit from a Trump victory. (They gave no specifics on the exact trades or amounts or how they came to the conclusion one trade would benefit from a Harris win and the other would benefit from a Trump win. However, I wanted to include the info for anyone who is a savvier bond trader.)

In geopolitical news, on Tuesday, Israeli PM Netanyahu fired his rival and now-former Defense Minister Gallant. Netanyahu promoted his ally Foreign Minister Katz to take the Defense Minister spot and unassigned cabinet member Sa’ar to replace Katz as the new Foreign Minister. Protests erupted across Israel over the firing. In unrelated news, Israeli police arrested a Netanyahu aid over accusations of leaking information (that gave Netanyahu cover for refusing cease fire proposals) after an Israeli court loosened a government gag order on the info that underlies the case. Meanwhile, on the ground, an Israeli strike in the north of Gaza killed 30 (mostly women in children according to the AP) on Tuesday. Elsewhere, in Russian invasion news, in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces clashed with North Korean troops for the first time Tuesday. (Some North Korean troops were killed a week ago, but that turned out to be due to “friendly fire” from Russian artillery.) The skirmishes were small-group in nature and there was no word on casualties.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with half of the 12 regional exchanges in the red and the other half in the green. Japan (+2.61%) was by far the biggest gainer while Hong Kong (-2.23%) was by far the biggest loser. Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean toward the upside at midday with just four of the 14 exchanges below break-even. The CAC (+1.20%), DAX (+0.83%), and FTSE (+1.27%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 6:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap higher. The DIA implies a +2.93% open, the SPY is implying a +2.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.63% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are spiking higher to 4.477% and Oil (WTI) has fallen 1.40% to $70.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AEP, BCO, COR, CTRI, GIB, CRL, CLVT, CNDT, CVS, DK, ENOV, HMC, HWM, IRM, JCI, JLL, LINE, NVO, ODP, OC, PFGC, PRGO, PNW, RPRX, SNDR, SRE, FUN, SWX, STWD, SUN, TEVA, TM, TRMB, and VSH. Then, after the close, AMRK, AGI, ALB, AMC, AEE, APA, APP, ARDT, ARM, ASH, ATO, BTG, BALY, BBSI, BKD, CHRD, COHR, CCU, CTVA, COTY, CAPL, DLX, ET, EMS, ENLC, EQX, FG, FNF, FBIN, FNV, GFL, GILD, HG, HST, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KD, LILA, LYFT, MFC, MRO, VAC, MTCH, MATV, MCK, MELI, MEOH, MKSI, MODV, NTR, PAM, PR, PRI, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RNR, RGLD, SVC, SBGI, SSRM, STE, STRL, SUI, TTWO, TKO, TS, TRIP, TTEC, TPC, UHAL, VSAT, VSTO, WES, WMB, ZG, and Z report.

So far this morning, AEP, COR, GIB, CRL, CRARY, CVS, DK, DDL, ENOV, KMT, ADRNY, OC, TEVA, TRMB, and VWDRY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CLVT, HWM, IRM, JCI, LINE, and PRGO missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, HMC and PFGC beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, NVO, ODP, SUN, TM, and VSH all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Retail Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Fed Chair Press Conference, Sept. Consumer Credit, and Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, Friday brings Michigan November Consumer Sentiment, Michigan November Consumer Expectations, Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from GOLF, ADV, APD, AQN, COLD, HOUS, MT, AVAH, GOLD, BCE, BDX, CCJ, CG, COMM, CRH, DDOG, ZRAY, DBD, DUK, EPC, ELAN, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, GEO, HAL, HBI, HSY, HGV, IHRT, IBP, KVUE, LCII, MRNA, TAP, MUR, VYX, NXST, DNOW, OSCR, PZZA, PENN, PCG, PLTK, PRMW, RL, ROK, RXO, SCSC, SEE, SPTN, STGW, SHOO, TPR, TRP, TGNA, TEF, TPX, TDG, UAA, PRKS, USFD, UWMC, VTRS, VST, WBD, KLG, AFRM, AGL, AL, ABNB, AKAM, AMN, ANET, ARKO, AXON, SQ, BHF, CPRI, CIVI, ED, CPAY, BAP, DKNG, DBX, DXC, SSP, EOG, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FTNT, G, PODD, MTD, MNST, MSI, NWSA, OPEN, OVV, PACS, PINS, QDEL, REZI, RNG, RIVN, SOLV, RUN, TOST, and TTD. Finally, on Friday, ADNT, WMS, ATSG, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, BAX, BLMN, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNH, ERJ, FLO, FLR, FTRE, GLP, GTN, IEP, KOP, LAMR, NRG, PAA, PAGP, RBA, SONY, TIXT, and PARA report.

In overnight news, America chose four more years of the felon, ex-President as it elected him again over current-VP Harris. The country also gave his party control of both the Senate and House, ensuring that faction now has complete control over all three branches of the US government as of January. Markets seem to love the idea, or are at least expressing relief that the election process is done, and are looking like they want to revisit the recent all-time highs. The Dollar is spiking, which at least in part helps explain the 10-Year bond yield spike, which is contributing to falls in commodity prices early.

With that background, it looks like the market is spiking higher and strongly bullish again early on Wednesday. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. Since that point, all three have also printed large white-bodied candles. (DIA is back at all-time highs.) With all three gapping far above their T-line (8ema), the short-term trend is bullish. However, the mid-term trend is also reversed and is now again bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three. With regard to extension, all three major index ETFs will open extended far above their T-line. However, at least until the market opens the T2122 indicator remains in the top end of its mid-range. So, the Bulls will run this morning. However, markets will also be stretched. Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than you can stay solvent betting on the reversal. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green again this morning. TSLA (+12.64%) is getting paid back for Musk getting in bed with Trump. TSLA is also far-and-away the largest dollar-volume trader, having traded nearly six times the traditional leader NVDA (+1.12%). The laggard of the group is META (-1.00%), perhaps on the premise that it will be punished by a pro-Musk government since it competes with Musk’s own social media company.

See you in the trading room.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

BA and Union Settle With US Election on Tap

November 5, 2024 by Ed Carter

Markets opened modestly on Monday as traders seem to be waiting (on elections, the Fed, or who knows what). SPY opened up just a tiny fraction of a percent, DIA opened down 0.13%, and QQQ opened down 0.12%. From there, SPY and QQQ meandered back and forth above and below the opening level all day. For its part, DIA sold off until noon, rallied half way back to the opening level by 1 p.m. before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs. SPY printed a black-bodied Spinning Top candle that retested its 50sma from above, but passed to closed back above that level. DIA printed a black-bodied, large Hammer type candle that retested its 50sma after gapping below, but failed the test to close back below. Finally, QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top, Bear Harami for the day. This happened on well-below-average in the SPY and QQQ as well as below-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.38%) almost one percent out in front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Utilities (-0.54%) was two-tenths of a percent ahead of the rest of the losing sectors headed down. At the same time, SPY lost 0.22%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.29%. VXX fell 4.19% to close at 54.47 and T2122 climbed a bit to just get above the edge of its oversold area, but is only in the bottom of its mid-range at 22.84. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to 4.289% while Oi (WTI) spiked 3.21% (on Israeli-raised fears of an Iranian retaliation for its bombing of Iran) to close at $71.73 per barrel. So, Monday was largely a “wait-and-see” day for traders. US Presidential and Congressional elections weigh on the market like a dark cloud that likely will not lift for at least days, maybe weeks, and possibly months. (The GOP has already filed more lawsuits than seen in any other US election and the number of their suits will skyrocket as votes are cast and counted. So, the normal schedule of democracy will likely not occur given the inability of one side to accept defeat or even reality.)

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Factory Orders, which came in better than August but a tick worse than expected at -0.5% (compared to a -0.4% forecast and August’s -0.8%).

After the close, AIG, ANDE, AVB, EQH, BFAM, BWXT, CRUS, CWK, ES, FN, GXO, ILMN, NXPI, PARR, PLTR, PRIM, RHP, SANM, SLF, VVX, and VRTX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CENX, CRBG, CRGY, GT, HUN, O, RRX, and ST missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BCC, FANG, FWRD, and HOLX beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, ATUS, CBT, CE, CLF, JELD and WYNN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

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In stock news, on Monday, HXSCL (SK Hynix) stock spiked at the open after NVDA requested expedited delivery for the memory-maker’s new HBM-4 high-bandwidth memory chips. (The NVDA desire to pull-forward it’s buying is a powerful indicator of high demand for the newer, faster memory chips. The only other memory makers of any note globally are MU and Korea’s Samsung.) Later, the Chinese Passenger Car Assn. reported that deliveries of Chinese-made TSLAs fell 5.3% year-on-year in October. In addition, October sales of Chinese-made Model 3 and Model Y fell 22.7% from September. At the same time, as reported Monday, ATSG confirmed that it has agreed to be taken private by equity firm Stonepeak for $22.50 per share (a 29.3% premium on Friday’s close). Later, IT industry analysts reported Monday that NVDA has begun routing motherboard orders away from SMCI following its accounting scandal. (Taiwanese-listed competitors Gigabyte and ASRock seem to be the beneficiaries of the NVDA decision.)

Elsewhere, F announced that its October sales were up roughly 15% year-on-year. Later, META announced it will extend its ban on new political ads beyond the election, at least until later this week. After the close, Reuters reported that BCSF and private equity firm Silver Lake are among the potential buyers bidding for a minority stake in INTC’s Altera (programmable chips) unit, which INTC acquired for $17 billion in 2015. At the same time, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is in talks with the state of CA on becoming a for-profit company (changing structure from a non-profit). Later, DLTR announced that CEO Dreiling (who only joined the company in March 2022) is stepping down “for personal reasons.” (However, the more likely scenario is that he was ousted due to poor performance in what was supposed to be a turnaround.) No successor was named as of yet.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Reuters reported that EU antitrust regulators have opened an investigation into whether AAPL’s iPad operating system complies with the EU’s Digital Markets Act. (At question is whether AAPL’s prohibition on other app stores for iPad apps violates the law.) That antitrust commission has just begun soliciting comment from all interested stakeholders. Later, the same EU antitrust regulators announced they will rule on NVO’s $16.5 billion acquisition of CTLC by December 6. Meanwhile, the Texas Railroad Commission (which, oddly, regulates the TX oil and gas industry) requested state lawmakers for $100 million in emergency funding to keep up with the growing number of leaking or erupting wells in TX oilfields. (That amount is equivalent to 44% of TX’s entire two-year budget.) In addition, the head of the agency said that request DID NOT include enough money to protect TX groundwater from well blowouts.

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced it has closed a probe into 411k F’s SUV and pickups. The probe was started after more than 1,000 complaints of loss of power during operations. The end of the investigation comes after F acknowledged the problem and recalled 90k of the vehicles. Later the US State Dept. approved the sale of $4.92 billion of BA military aircraft to South Korea. At the same time, China filed a WTO complaint alleging the EU has improperly set anti-subsidy tariffs on China’s electric vehicles.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, MS reported that their survey of consumers has found sentiment was the highest in three years at the end of October. Meanwhile, C reported that its survey of chipmakers found that September saw a massive 8.8% month-on-month increase in global semiconductor sales, reaching $61.1 billion for the month. Elsewhere, the Chinese National People’s Congress Standing Committee held a meeting Monday to discuss moving “off balance sheet debt” of local governments to their official accounts. Additional talks included increasing local government debt ceilings in order to allow the move. Bloomberg also reported that they are considering permitting local governments to sell $845 billion in bonds by 2027 to finance the hidden debt.

In Middle East news, on Monday Israel officially ended its recognition of the UN’s Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees. This put the previously-voted ban of the organization into effect. Dismantling UNWRA has long been a goal of Israel, but global humanitarian support for the organization made that move politically untenable. Israel’s defiance and disregard for international pressure (assured of US support) over the last year allowed Israel to justify the move, blaming support of Hamas for the move. (Since UNWRA is by far the largest aid and services distributor to Palestinians, the impact is expected to be dire in Palestine.) Attacks on the day were lighter than recently (mostly due to the Israelis lightening up) as they continue to push the narrative that Iran is “just about” to retaliate for their airstrikes in Tehran last week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly strongly green. Shenzhen (+3.22%), Shanghai (+2.32%), Hong Kong (+2.14%), Thailand (+1.28%), and Japan (+1.11%) led that region higher. Meanwhile, in Europe, most bourses are green but there is more red showing than in Asia as of midday with five of 14 exchanges below break-even. The CAC (+0.14%), DAX (+0.17%), and FTSE (+0.12%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a higher start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.41% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 4.311% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $71.73 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Sept. Exports, Sept. Imports, and Sept. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), Oct. S&P Global Services PMI and Oct. S&P Global Composite PMI (9:45 a.m.), Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.). However, the main news of the day will be the US elections (although, as mentioned, the results are not likely to be known Tuesday or maybe even this week). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, AGCO, GBTG, APO, ARCH, ADM, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CIGI, CEIX, CMI, DD, EMR, EXPD, RACE, FTS, IT, GGB, GFS, HSIC, HY, INGR, LGIH, LPX, MPC, MLCO, MPLX, NMRK, OGE, ACDC, QSR, TRGP, TRI, TKR, BLD, TAC, ULS, WLK, and YUM. Then, after the close, AFG, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVN, EXAS, FYBR, GMED, GO, IFF, JKHY, KGC, LUMN, MASI, MCHP, MRC, NE, NOG, PAAS, PBA, SMCI, VIV, and TX report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Retail Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Fed Chair Press Conference, Sept. Consumer Credit, and Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, Friday brings Michigan November Consumer Sentiment, Michigan November Consumer Expectations, Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AEP, BCO, COR, CTRI, GIB, CRL, CLVT, CNDT, CVS, DK, ENOV, HMC, HWM, IRM, JCI, JLL, LINE, NVO, ODP, OC, PFGC, PRGO, PNW, RPRX, SNDR, SRE, FUN, SWX, STWD, SUN, TEVA, TM, TRMB, VSH, AMRK, AGI, ALB, AMC, AEE, APA, APP, ARDT, ARM, ASH, ATO, BTG, BALY, BBSI, BKD, CHRD, COHR, CCU, CTVA, COTY, CAPL, DLX, ET, EMS, ENLC, EQX, FG, FNF, FBIN, FNV, GFL, GILD, HG, HST, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KD, LILA, LYFT, MFC, MRO, VAC, MTCH, MATV, MCK, MELI, MEOH, MKSI, MODV, NTR, PAM, PR, PRI, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RNR, RGLD, SVC, SBGI, SSRM, STE, STRL, SUI, TTWO, TKO, TS, TRIP, TTEC, TPC, UHAL, VSAT, VSTO, WES, WMB, ZG, and Z report. On Thursday, we hear from GOLF, ADV, APD, AQN, COLD, HOUS, MT, AVAH, GOLD, BCE, BDX, CCJ, CG, COMM, CRH, DDOG, ZRAY, DBD, DUK, EPC, ELAN, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, GEO, HAL, HBI, HSY, HGV, IHRT, IBP, KVUE, LCII, MRNA, TAP, MUR, VYX, NXST, DNOW, OSCR, PZZA, PENN, PCG, PLTK, PRMW, RL, ROK, RXO, SCSC, SEE, SPTN, STGW, SHOO, TPR, TRP, TGNA, TEF, TPX, TDG, UAA, PRKS, USFD, UWMC, VTRS, VST, WBD, KLG, AFRM, AGL, AL, ABNB, AKAM, AMN, ANET, ARKO, AXON, SQ, BHF, CPRI, CIVI, ED, CPAY, BAP, DKNG, DBX, DXC, SSP, EOG, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FTNT, G, PODD, MTD, MNST, MSI, NWSA, OPEN, OVV, PACS, PINS, QDEL, REZI, RNG, RIVN, SOLV, RUN, TOST, and TTD. Finally, on Friday, ADNT, WMS, ATSG, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, BAX, BLMN, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNH, ERJ, FLO, FLR, FTRE, GLP, GTN, IEP, KOP, LAMR, NRG, PAA, PAGP, RBA, SONY, TIXT, and PARA report.

In overnight news, BA union members voted to accept the latest tentative contract and thus end the 7+ week strike. It is worth noting that only 59% of the machinists voted to accept the deal, which includes a 38% pay increase over four years and either a $12k ratification bonus or $7k bonus plus $5k contribution to the employees 401(k). While some workers could return to the job as soon as Wednesday, the official return to work date is November 12.

With that background, it looks like the market is modestly bullish but indecisive again early Tuesday. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly higher to start the premarket. Since that point, all three have also printed Doji-like candles. With all three still below their T-line (8ema), the short-term trend is bearish. However, the mid-term trend is now undetermined (seeming to turn over to bearish but not definitive yet) and the longer-term trend is still solidly Bullish in all three. (Again, despite the recent pullback, they all still within three percent of all-time highs.) With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator has climbed just outside of its oversold area and into the bottom of the mid-range. So, markets do have room to run either direction if traders can find momentum, but the Bulls have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. TSLA (+1.86%) is by far the leading gainer (a full percent ahead of the next best-performing ticker) while AAPL (-0.15%) is the laggard. Once again, overall the premarket volume is light today. However , TSLA is leading NVDA in terms of dollar-volume traded (early) and those two are far out in front of all other tickers.

See you in the trading room.

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