Doji Archives - Page 93 of 128 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Market Seems To Be Waiting

May 7, 2020 by Ed Carter

After another gap-up open, there was a struggle for control as markets rode the rollercoaster for an hour. However, after 11am the bears were firmly in control the rest of the day. Another late-afternoon selloff led to closing on the lows as the SPY lost 0.68% on a Bearish Engulfing candle, the DIA lost 0.81% on a big black candle, and the QQQ managed to gain 0.62% on a Doji-like candle. The VXX gained slightly to close at 39.21 and T2122 remains in the mid-range. The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.708% and Oil (WTI) finished slightly down at $24.15/barrel.

The big story pre-market was ADP Payrolls reported down over 20 million jobs for April. However, this number still was not as bad as estimates or even just the total of the most recent 4 weeks of new Unemployment Claims. So, I don’t know how much read-through this might give for Friday’s official April number. During the day, Oil reflected the recent rally with some profit-taking and at the same time, US production cuts showed as oil inventories came in much lower than expected.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,843,204 confirmed cases and 265,657 deaths. In Europe, Russia continues to report record daily new cases. At the same time, the Mayor of Moscow took his life in his hands when he said he believes the true number of cases in his city is at least 3 times the official number. In the UK, the Bank of England said the UK economy may shrink 14% in 2020. Germany also reported an uptick in cases as PM Merkel announced “Emergency Brake” plans in case the spread grows too much post easing.

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In the US, we have 1,263,243 confirmed cases and 74,809 deaths. Wednesday the President reversed himself again, saying the coronavirus task force will remain in place indefinitely, but again said they now are focused on vaccine development. At the same time, Trump’s rhetoric on China continues to escalate and the trade leaders of the two countries will be meeting again.

Overnight, China reported April Exports rose 3.5% (expectation was a 15.7% decline). Still, Asian markets were mixed and did not show as many big moves as typical of the last few months. In Europe, markets are green across the board so far today. However, they too are not giving huge moves, but instead steady climb so far. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (4 pm). However, on the earnings front, AAN, AAWW, ABC, AES, AMRK, BCE, BDX, BGG, BHC, BLL, BMY, BUD, CBRE, CFX, CLMT, CNP, CNQ, CRL, CTB, CTVA, DHR, DISH, ENB, ES, FIS, FOLD, GCI, HES, HFC, HII, HLT, IRM, IT, JBLU, MT, NRG, PENN, PWR, RLGY, RTX, TEVA, VIAC, and XEL all report before the open.

The bulls ran out of steam yesterday. However, the bears are not exactly “killing it” either. It’s as if the market were waiting on Friday’s payroll report, expecting it to be some sort of surprise. Regardless, we may see a new lower-low Thursday as that is the direction of drift now. Volatility remains a constant companion for traders. So, all we can do is focus on the chart in front of us. Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CGBD, RYAM, ALGN, NKE, FFIV, FMC, BWA, JAZZ. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Oil Keeps Racing Higher on Demand Hope

May 6, 2020 by Ed Carter

Tuesday was a struggle between the bulls and bears. Markets gapped a bit over 1% higher at the open. After a morning follow-through for another percent, the bulls ran out of steam. Markets ground sideways until 3pm, when a strong selloff drove us back down to the gap at day-end. As a result, all 3 major indices printed high-wick candles that are at best indecisive. The QQQ and DIA look more bearish in flavor. On the day the DIA gains 0.58%, the SPY 0.92%, and the QQQ 1.13%. VXX fell back to 38.67, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 0.662%. Oil (WTI) continued its recent tear rising another 23% (5 consecutive days of strong gains) to close at $25.12/barrel.

During the day, US Household Debt was reported at $14.3 trillion. This was another record high, up 1.1% in Q1 on a 23^rd straight quarter of increased borrowing. The debt remains just shy of the 2007 record (inflation-adjusted) $15 trillion. This increase came in-spite of creditors tightening standards in Q1 and most of the quarter coming before virus economic damage was significant. Fed Vice Chair Clarida also said more help may be needed, but his baseline forecast is that economic growth will begin again in Q3. However, he also said he expects the downturn to continue through Q2. It is possible that this view of Q2 (CNBC interview) helped spark the selloff at 3pm Tuesday.

After the close, the President confirmed he’ll disband the coronavirus task force, maybe as soon as month-end. He said the US economy must open, even if more Americans get sick or die, which he also said was inevitable. So, he’ll be replacing the virus task force with one focused on economic growth. Clearly, he assumes the infection increases will not be economically crippling and losses will be acceptable.

In an unrelated story, a Los Alamos National Lab report raised concerns over future treatment and vaccines. The report said there are now 14 strains of COVID-19. The primary strain in the US (and world) came from a mutation in Europe. Two parts of this are concerning. First, the now dominant strain seems more contagious than the two strains that China sequenced and reported in late January. Second, any mutations are likely to impact the efficacy of treatments or vaccines that were based on the original genetic sequence.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,747,400 confirmed cases and 258,973 deaths. In Europe, only 5 countries are still not reporting declines in the new case rate and of those, only Bulgaria is reporting an increasing rate. This lends more credence to European reopening timelines. Still, the EU reported that it expects its economy to shrink 7.5% for the year (down from a February forecast of +1.4%).

In the US, we have 1,238,083 confirmed cases and 72,285 deaths. Signs show that the economy is picking back up again as Weekly mortgage applications rose for the third straight week, up 7% week-on-week. WEN made a couple of stories. It reported same-store sales rebounded hard as customers come back in droves. However, they also reported that 18% of their stores have run out of beef. It is worth noting that COST and KR both implemented meat rationing for their customers in the last few days.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning more to the green side so far today. As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a three-quarters of a percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am) and Oil Inventories (10:30 am). However, AEP, ALXN, AXTA, BG, BWA, CDW, CVS, CNHI, DISCA, DISCK, FLIR, FMS, FTS, GM, GOLD, GPC, KKR, MEET, MFC, NI, ODP, OMI, PAG, SMG, SPR, TMUS, VMC, WM, and ZTS are among those who report before the open.

As said yesterday, the bulls and bears are still struggling. So, volatility and gaps will remain the standard. However, in the short-term it appears the bulls want to take us back up to at least retest resistance above. All we can do is focus on the chart in front of us. Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CVE, ABBV, PAGS, ABT, LMT, SNAP, EBAY. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Some Firms on Rocks But Bulls See Light

May 5, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday saw a gap down of about 0.8% in the major indices. However, shortly after this the bulls started a slow climb back into the game. The day ended just on the green side of break-even in the large-caps while the tech-heavy QQQs led the way. For the day, the SPY was up 0.28%, the DIA up 0.06%, and the QQQ was up 1.17%. The QQQ also managed to print a bullish engulfing candle. At the same time, the VXX was down slightly to 40.26 and T2122 (4-week High Low Ratio) fell to exactly the mid-point between overbought and oversold territory at 50. The 10-year bond yield was flat, technically closing down to 0.63 and Oil (WTI) continued its rally up over 7% to $21.18/barrel.

During the day the Treasury Dept. announced it will be borrowing $3 Trillion (bond sales) this quarter. However, except for the exact number, this was expected due to the massive stimulus and relief packages already signed into law. Meanwhile, the FDA said it will start to crack down on COVID-19 antibody tests. In the panic to get tests to the public, over 250 antibody tests were taken to the market. However, it has been reported that many of them give over 50% “false positives” (more than half the people who are told they have antibodies turn out not to have them). This crackdown should start in the next 10 days and may well impact a number of medical sector tickers.

After the close, HTZ announced it has retained an advisor for help with bankruptcy proceedings. LB also announced it had ended its deal to sell the Victoria’s Secret brand to a private equity firm. Meanwhile, in supply chain news, earlier in the day TSN again warned of potential meat shortages despite an Executive Order forcing plants to remain open. They cited US hog processing capacity having been cut in half. After the close, SHAK confirmed by reporting they’ve seen significantly higher beef costs and expect the price hikes to continue.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,663,961 confirmed cases and 252,758 deaths. Reopening continues throughout Europe with mixed results. While crowds waited on department stores to open in Austria, many Italian retail businesses said it wasn’t worth the effort to open shop since no customers showed up. Germany reports a similar story as Italy on retail, but its manufacturing sector seems to be well on its way back to capacity.

In the US, we have 1,213,010 confirmed cases and 69,925 deaths. A CDC report (marked with HHS and Homeland Security Dept. seals and dated May 1st) was leaked Monday. The document said it expects to see virus spread and deaths accelerate by June with the mid-point of several forecasts being 200,000 new cases and 2,500 deaths per day. The White House disclaimed the report saying it didn’t reflect any modeling done by the task force itself. (For reference, the US now sees about 25,000 new cases and 1,200 deaths per day.) Meanwhile, SBUX reports 85% of its stores nationwide will be open by Friday. So, US reopening continues and at least we can get coffee while we argue over forecasts.

Asian markets of questionable value today. China, Japan, and South Korea were all off for a market holiday Tuesday. In Europe, markets are in the green across the board at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a three-quarters to one-percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Mar. Import/Exports (8:30 am), Apr. Services PMI (9:45 am), and Apr. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). Earnings before the open include D, FCAU, NEM, ITW, DD, SYY, INCY, MPC, REGN, SPG, TDG, AME, XYL, MLM, VTR, WRK, HSIC, AOS, IPGP, SEE, ALK, KEX, ACM, WRK, ADNT, USFD, ARMK, LDOS, HSIC, AGCO, W, INGR, TRI, TA, and AME.

The very recent pullback remains in place, but the bulls were in control all day (after the open) yesterday. Volatility and gaps remain the standard. However, it appears the bulls want to take us back up to at least retest resistance above after Monday’s bounce. Focus on the chart in front of you. Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: VLO, PNR, COP, ADP, TECK, PH, NXPI, GNTX, EMR, SIRI. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bad BRKB Report and a Lower Open

May 4, 2020 by Ed Carter

As we turned the page to a new month, Friday turned a positive week negative. Bad earnings news from AAPL and AMZN, and post-April profit-taking led to a 1.75% gap-down. Then, after a late-morning selloff, markets spent the afternoon just grinding sideways near the lows. For the day the SPY was down 2.74%, the DIA down 2.44%, and the QQQ down 2.82%. The VXX rose on this performance to close at 41.19. The 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.618% and Oil (WTI) rose again to get back to $19.69/barrel.

The big weekend news was that Berkshire lost $50 billion (largest ever) in the last quarter. It sold its entire stake in 4 airlines at a big loss to get out of that industry altogether. We also learned they had not bought the recent bottom. In fact, Warren Buffett said “We’ve not bought anything because we don’t see anything that attractive (to buy).” So, BRKB is still amassing cash and now has $137 billion of cash on hand.

In other weekend news, Larry Kudlow (Chair NEC) told reporters on Sunday that the White House hasn’t yet made a decision on a third round of PPP, but said it may be needed. In the meantime, he was promoting the administration’s ideas of a payroll-tax holiday as well as going back to 100%-deductibility for business meals and entertainment.

On the other side of the easing argument, Bloomberg reports economists are just starting to worry that ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy may cause inflation. In particular, economists at the Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, and some of the large banks are worried that pressure to keep easing in place will cause runaway inflation. Concerns aren’t major at this point, but it points to the fine line the Fed must walk now that Congress and the Administration are in a “buy our way out of this” mode.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,584,116 confirmed cases and 248,641 deaths. Russia has recorded 3 consecutive days of a record-high number of new cases (now well over 10,000 new cases per day). However, the biggest international virus story seems to be the rise in the rhetoric of blaming China for the pandemic and “holding them accountable.” Of course, China responded with its own propaganda about the US. In and of itself this is not important, but the war of words does raise the specter of another round in the trade war, particularly in an election year, which the global economy may not be in as good a position to handle as it was last year.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,188,826 confirmed cases and 68,606 deaths. 31 states had some easing or reopening as of the weekend. Of those, only 17 have actually achieved the 14-day new case rate reduction that was recommended by administration guidelines. Activity and hope are increasing. Only time will tell if it was too soon or false hope. However, it’s the course our leaders chose and all the rest of us can do is embrace it as cautiously as possible.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed after a 3-day weekend. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India were down sharply. However, China, Australian, and smaller countries like Thailand were well in the green. In Europe, markets are deeply in the red after their own 3-day weekend. The FTSE is only off a third of a percent, but the set seem to be down over 2% at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a half to one-percent gap lower at the open.

The uptrend was broken Friday on the first consecutive down day in over a week. Still, there is potential support not far below and the Bulls have clearly been focusing on the good (and hope) and ignoring the bad news during the last 5+ weeks. Volatility and gaps remain the norm. We can also expect bad economic news to continue.

So, all traders can do is focus on the chart in front of us. However, in such uncertainty and somewhat unexplained strong rebound, we either need to be fast (day trade) or slow (longer-term holds). Be very cautious about swing trades, unless you can handle significant short-term pain.

No Trade Ideas for today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

New Month and Most of World Off Today

May 1, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped slightly lower Thursday on the news that we have had over 30 million new unemployment claims in the last 6 weeks (3.84 million this week) and consumer spending had fallen 7.5% year-over-year in March. After that half percent gap down markets ground sideways and then lower to close about twice as far down as the open on indecisive candles. The SPY fell 0.93%, the DIA fell 1.31%, and the QQQ was flat at down 0.04%. The VXX gained a bit to close at 37.87 and the TC2122 4-week High-Low Ratio fell slightly to still overbought 91.09. 10-year bond yield rose to 0.646% and Oil (WTI) jumped almost 27% to get back to $19.09/barrel.

After hours, the Justice Dept. said they are seeing initial indications of fraud in the SBA Payroll Protection Program and that it has begun an investigation. Elsewhere, CA, NY, TX, IL, CT, and MA states have all applied for federal loans as their unemployment trust funds are running out of money. These are among the 21 states that are now below federal recommended solvency guidelines. CA, TX, NY, IL, OH, HI, and PA are all below half of the recommended minimum solvency.

On earnings, AMZN told shareholders they may want to take a seat before reporting a huge miss ($5.01 act. vs. $6.25 est.) on higher than expected revenue. It also said the company expects to spend all operating profits from Q2 on COVID related expenses. However, AAPL reported an earnings beat on flat revenue, but dropped guidance and said it had also burned through some of its massive cash hoard during the quarter. (iPhone revenue was down 7% year over year.)

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,325,957 confirmed cases and 234,501 deaths. In Russia as numbers climb the PM (theoretically President Putin’s number two) has tested positive. At the same time, UK PM Johnson said his country was “past the peak,” but he did not want to risk a second peak and was thus not ready to announce a roadmap to lift restrictions and he will ask the public to wear masks when they do open.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,095,304 confirmed cases and 63,871 deaths. Despite these numbers, 31 states will be at least partially open by this weekend. However, Dr. Fauci says he is worried that states are moving too fast and large portions of the public are also not following distancing guidelines. At the same time, the White House has not signed off on CDC guidelines that require altered ways of life. Instead, the President said he wants things to be “the way they were” because he doesn’t want half-empty restaurants, stadiums, or other businesses. Time will tell, but that approach does not model well.

Overnight, both Asian and European markets were closed for the May Day worker celebration. However, the US will be open and as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a significant gap lower at the open.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Apr Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). In earnings, ABBV, AON, CBOE, CHTR, CVX, CLX, CL, EL, XOM, HON, HUN, IMO, JCI, LYB, NWL, PCG, PSX, and WY all report before the open. Only BRK.B reports after the close.

The uptrend continues with even down days being nothing but black candles in an uptrend. However, profit-taking after window-dressing April may be in-store today. The bulls clearly continue to focus on the good (and hope) and ignore the bad news. Still, gaps and volatility remain the norm and we should expect bad economic news to continue. All we can do is remain focused and trade the chart in front of us. Just bear in mind we either need to be fast (day trade) or slow (longer-term holds) in a market that does not match the data. Be very cautious about swing trades, unless you can handle significant short-term pain. Finally, it is Friday. So, take some profits and reduce your risk going into the weekend ahead.

No Trade Ideas for today Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Hope, Earnings and Jobless Claims

April 30, 2020 by Ed Carter

Once again, the bulls ignored bad news and latched on to questionable hope. The Q1 GDP shrank by 4.8%, but futures spiked on the news. Markets opened with a 2% gap higher and then rallied on news of encouraging results from a preliminary trial of a treatment drug for COVID-19. On the day, the SPY was up 2.60%, the DIA up 2.22%, and the QQQ up 3.55%. VXX fell to 36.72 (the lowest level it has seen for nearly two months) and the T2122 remains pegged at 99.06. Oil (WTI) rebounded 23% on hope of renewed demand to close at $15.20/barrel and the 10-year bond yield also rose slightly to 0.625%.

During the day, the government jumped on the GILD (remdesvir) news as the FDA isn’t waiting for more proof and announced it will make the drug available to patients just as soon as possible. This is quite the leap considering the trial showed an improvement in only 50% of patients and even then, only at a certain treatment course (not as much with longer length of treatment). However, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said it was “quite good news” that the drug can reduce hospitalization from 15 days to 11 days on average and may (data less certain) reduce the mortality rate (from 11.6% to 8%), even if only effective in half the cases. So, no magic bullet, but a step in the right direction.

The Fed also left rates unchanged and they will continue buying bonds. This was as expected and the more important point was the forward guidance where Fed Chair Powell said the economy will continue to need Fed support for some time and the Fed will act forcefully to do more as needed. He also pledged to keep rates near zero until full employment and inflation come back.

On earnings, FB soared after-hours on reporting stable ad revenue and a 18% year-on-year revenue growth, this in spite of a 4 cent earnings miss. MSFT also rose on a 15% increase in sales and a beat on both top and bottom lines. The same was true of QCOM, which also beat on both lines, but warned they forecast a 30% drop in phone shipments in Q2. Bear in mind that many major financial news outlets report that the analyst estimates are worthless this quarter and of even less value for next quarter as most companies have completely dropped forward guidance and major Wall Street Industry Analysts have given up with the gaming. So, don’t focus on earnings reports as an indication of anything but a news event. Trade the chart alone and be fast.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,235,722 confirmed cases and 228,605 deaths. In Italy, 12.4 million workers have asked for emergency funds from their government. In good news, in China, road traffic in Beijing and Shenzhen is heavier now than it was a year ago while Shanghai is almost the same. This implies that s economic activity (and oil demand) has resumed at the same pace as before the virus shutdowns. Meanwhile, in Japan, the government has extended the national emergency for another month (originally to end May 6) as their outbreaks continue.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,064,572 confirmed cases and 61,669 deaths. However, the priority is now no longer the virus, but economic recovery. Toward this, the President said that the federal social distancing guidelines will “fade out” when asked about extending them. The VP said they were “very much incorporated” into the voluntary reopening guidelines (that many states and even more people haven’t adopted as they move to reopen more quickly). Still, the President said he is “very much in favor of what they (Governors who are opening up their states) are doing” as you’d expect him to be with his changed focus.

Overnight, Asian markets were green, with the lone exception of India. However, in Europe, the opposite is true as markets are in the red so far today, with the exceptions of Finland and Denmark. As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed, pointing to a 1% gap up in the QQQ, but flat opens in the DIA and SPY.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Mar. PCE, Q1 Employment Cost Index, Mar. Personal Spending, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am) and April Chicago PMI (9:45 am). On the earnings front, MO, AAL, ABMD, BAX, CHD, CI, CMCSA, COP, DAN, DOW, ETN, BEN, GPN, HBI, ICE, IDXX, IP, K, KHC, LKQ, MMC, MCD, TAP, MCO, NLSN, PH, PNR, PWR, RMD, SO, SWK, TPR, TFX, TXT, TWTR, VMC, WLTW all report before the open. Meanwhile, AMZN, AMGN, AAPL, AJG, BMRN, COG, CXO, EMN, EIX, FBHS, FTV, GILD, HP, ILMN, MGM, MOH, PRGO, PSA, SGEN, SYK, UAL, V, WDC, WHR, X all report after the close.

The 6-day uptrend remains intact, as Bulls clearly are seeing the good and ignoring the bad news. Gaps and volatility remain the norm and we should expect bad economic news to continue. So, all we can do is remained focused and trade the chart in front of us. Just bear in mind we either need to be fast (day trade) or slow (longer-term holds) in a market that does not match the data. Be very cautious about swing trades, unless you can handle significant short-term pain.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Like Something or Expect It

April 29, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bulls gapped markets higher at the open Tuesday, but after that, the bears were in control. The big dogs of tech (GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT, AAPL) led markets lower all day, with some of the strongest selling taking place the last 15 minutes. On the day the SPY printed a Dark Cloud Cover and the QQQ an Evening Star. Both signals coming at resistance levels. At the close, the SPY was down 0.47%, the DIA down 0.12%, but the QQQ down a big 1.88%. The VXX was only up slightly to 39.07 while the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio remains in nose-bleed territory at 97.82. Oil (WTI) closed down only slightly to $12.71/barrel while the 10-year bond yield also fell a bit to 0.611%.

During the day the President issued an executive order to force meat processing plants to remain open using the Defense Production Act. He mentioned TSN in particular after their call for help, but the idea is to force meat supplies to remain intact, while also removing any liability problems from the companies (his words). The move also helps the large livestock producers who were facing massive culls (about 160,000 animals per day) if they had no place to ship market-ready animals.

After the close the Fed reached out to banks to discuss how they should implement their own $600 billion “small business” (up to 10,000 employees and $2.5 billion in revenue) loan program. GOOG/GOOGL also posted a 13% revenue increase and also beat reduced earnings estimates for the quarter. Still, they also said their major cost-cutting efforts will remain in place (due to an expected dramatic reduction in advertising demand in Q2). For its part, AMD posted a miss on both the top and bottom lines. Meanwhile, F warned of a 15% revenue decline and said that it expects to lose $5 billion during the second quarter. However, F also said it thinks it has sufficient cash to make it through the virus/recession without seeking to raise more money.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,152,556 confirmed cases and 218,491 deaths. In Europe, Greece, Portugal, Austria, and France all announced plans to begin slow economic reopening in the next week. However, Russia admitted to shortages of protective gear and President Putin said the country faces a new and grueling phase of the pandemic. Ominously, Germany’s “R-nought” (how many people each infected person then infects) is now back up to 1 (from 0.75) after a week of reopening. Any value over 1 means the spread is out of control again.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,035,765 confirmed cases and 59,266 deaths. Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CNN that everyone who needs a test will be able to get one in another 5-6 weeks (early June), but he stressed there is a difference between “needs” and “wants.” Meanwhile, the President indicated he would block federal aid to states unless they take action against “sanctuary cities” in an attempt to use the crisis to get his way on the immigration issue.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green. In Europe, the same is true as markets are wavering on either side of flat so far today. And as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to an uneven gap higher at the open, with DIA up 0.85%, SPY up 1.1%, and QQQ looking at a 1.5% gap up.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Q1 GDP (8:30 am), Mar. Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the FOMC Rate Decision and Statement (2 pm) and the FOMC Chair Presser (2:30 pm). On the earnings front, ADP, AMT, ANTM, AVY, BA, BSX, CME, GRMN, GD, GE, HAS, HLT, HUM, LHX, LH, MKTX, MAS, MA, NSC, NOC, R, ROL, SHW, VLO, and YUM all report before the open. Then after the close, AFL, ALGN, ADM, CCI, DRE, FB, HIG, HOLX, MSFT, QCOM, RJF, TSLA, URI, VRTX, and EBAY all report.

The 5-day uptrend remains intact, but resistance may be proving itself in the major indices. Gaps and volatility remain the norm and we can expect bad economic news. However, the Bulls clearly have had the desire to ignore bad news and look toward a rosy future down the road. Remain focused and either trade fast (day trade) or slow (long-term holds). Be very cautious about swing trades, unless you can handle significant short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GIS, CAT, NUE, AMAT, PGR, ZTS, CDNS, CTXS, MSI. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls See Only Blue Skies Ahead

April 28, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bulls were in charge again Monday, apparently on optimism as various states are now reopening parts of their economies. Markets gapped about 0.75% at the open and meandered upward slowly most of the rest of the day. Interestingly, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lagged on the day as it traded sideways and down from its gap slightly. On the day, the SPY gained 1.46%, the DIA gained 1.43%, and the QQQ gained 0.80%. The VXX fell back to 38.44, but the T2122 4-wk. High/Low Ratio is now very high into overbought territory at 97.32. The 10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.664%. All this occurred while Oil (WTI) got crushed again, losing 24% to close at $12.88/barrel.

After the close, the Fed announced it is expanding its municipal bond-buying program to include states, counties, and smaller municipality community bonds. This is seen as a necessary stop-gap since there is at least some opposition (notably Sen. Majority Leader McConnell) on Capitol Hill to relief for states and then Monday the President publicly asked why the federal government should bail out the “poorly-run Democratic states.”

In business news, TSLA reversed itself from early in the day and cancelled their plans to request workers to resume work at their California plant this week. On the food front a third of American pork processing capacity is closed and 20% of beef and chicken capacity is shit as well. One major plant was forced to kill 2 million birds earlier this month due to a lack of workers to process them. TSN CEO had said Sunday that he feels the US food supply chain is close to breaking as millions of pounds of meat will simply disappear from stores as a result of closures.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,081,502 confirmed cases and 212,337 deaths. The WHO reminded the public that the pandemic is far from over. They said they were specifically concerned about new case trends in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Meanwhile, Russia said that any call for a reopening date would be nothing but a “shot in the dark” at this point. In the UK, PM Johnson said it is still too risky to relax their COVID-19 lockdown.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,010,507 confirmed cases and 56,803 deaths. The administration announced guidelines where it hopes to see tests reach just 2% of the public. These guidelines require states to provide the vast majority of tests while the federal government acts as the “supplier of last resort” for testing that 2% of people. At the same time, the President claimed the federal parts of the plan are mostly done, since they will just be a back-stop.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but lean to the green side. In Europe, markets are strongly green across the board so far today. And as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another one percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Mar. Trade Balance and Mar. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, on the earnings front, MMM, CAT, CNC, GLW, CMI, DHI, DTE, ECL, HOG, IQV, MRK, MSCI, NUE, OMC, PEP, PFE, ROK, ROP, SPGI, SIRI, LUV, TROW, TEL, UPS, WAT, and XRX report before the open. Then after the close, AKAM, AMD, GOOG, GOOGL, BXP, CHRW, CERN, CSGP, DXCM, F, JNPR, MXIM, MDLZ, OKE, and SBUX all report.

The uptrend remains intact. However, resistance remains just above and gaps remain the norm. Bulls clearly want to run and are in ignore bad news more again. Still, there are just as many bad economic reports, dividend and guidance cancellations, and potential for another new wave of infections than ever. In this environment, traders need to continue to remain focused and either quick (day trade) or slow (long-term holds). Be very cautious about any swing trades you take in this market, unless you can handle significant short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KSS, GL, WYNN, DLTR, FIVE, SNAP, SCHW, GS, FDX, STZ, MKC, HAL Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Cases Rising But ReOpening Begins

April 27, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday saw a half percent gap higher at the open, fading back down to the previous close and then from 11am into the close a strong rally that saw us close near the highs. For the day, the SPY was up 1.39%, the DIA up 1.17%, and the QQQ up 1.58%. The VXX closed down to 41.52 and the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio slid back down to the edge of overbought territory at 79.82. The 10-yr bond yield fell slightly to 0.606% and Oil (WTI) kept its rally going, closing at $17.18/barrel. However, for the week, we saw large Doji candles that were down for the first time in 3 weeks across all three major averages.

Over the weekend several major analysts and fund managers commented that they feel the market is over-valued and due for a drop. These include people like Mohamed El-Erian, Carl Icahn, David Tepper, and others. They point to four premises for their stance. First, they feel the market simply has not and cannot grasp how much damage has been done to the economy. Second, they believe a major debt default crisis is still in the offing. Third, they feel outbreaks are inevitable during “reopening” and, even if contained, these will cause market fire sales. Finally, they point to the wrong groups leading the market for a “real” recovery. (According to them, it should be financials, durable goods, and retail leading the way, not healthcare, technology, and utilities as we’ve actually seen.) For those reasons, they expect more downdrafts in the short-term and, in the longer-term, feel it will take 3 years to return to “peak earnings” again. Whether these “experts” are right, wrong, or just trying to talk themselves into a better position is irrelevant. However, the ideas are worth considering when deciding how much of your account to have invested in this market.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,017,776 confirmed cases and 207,722 deaths. In Europe, food prices are a concern as Russia has halted wheat exports for now and drought is impacting the current growing season. However, in Spain there was a ray of hope as they began to allow limited outdoor exercise and say, if the number of new cases keeps falling, it will ease further on May 1. In Asia, Japan now has the largest number of new daily cases as some of its cities and prefectures have now reinstated lockdowns. However, India has eased a bit, opening residential-area shops under certain restrictions.

In the US, we are approaching the million-case mark, with 987,322 confirmed cases and 55,415 deaths. It’s worth noting that Friday saw the largest number of new cases reported so far in the US. However, the epicenters of New York and New Jersey continue to show a decline in their new case rate. Over the weekend, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said that the US needs to double testing before wide-spread reopening happens, but also that he hopes we can do this doubling in the next couple weeks. In the supply chain, 2 more major meat processing facility closed. So, now about 25% of US meat production is shut due to the virus. On the other hand, a number of states (mostly along political lines) like Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas that have started reopening many businesses and up to 20 will have a partial opening by the end of the coming week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with the exception of India which was just on the red side of flat (-0.25%). In Europe, markets are strongly green across the board so far today. And as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. However, on the earnings front, AMG, AWI, CMS, CHKP, CNX, DORM, LECO, IR, report before the open. Then AVT, AMAT, AMKR, CE, CINF, CNI, FFIV, KDP, NOV, NXPI, PFG, PPG, PKG, SANM, and UHS report after the close.

The uptrend remains intact. So far, earnings have been “good” against dramatically lowered expectations, but companies continue to cancel guidance and report lower year-on-year earnings. However, with over 140 of the S&P reporting and the Fed meeting again this week, we may see a holding pattern Monday and Tuesday as traders wait to see which direction the wind is blowing.

All this is to say we still have a bullish market, at or near resistance, and facing volatile news-driven intraday swings and overnight gaps. In this environment, traders need to continue to remain focused and either quick (day trade) or slow (long-term holds). Be very cautious about any swing trades you take in this market unless you can handle significant short-term pain.

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HII, ABT, ROP, SCHW, DOMO, NLOK, EXPD, CSCO, INTC, HD, TSN. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Georgia Goes First On Significant Opening

April 24, 2020 by Ed Carter

Thursday was a bit of a roller coaster ride. Markets gapped higher half a percent, despite the new unemployment claims. It then rallied until about 10:45 am when the leak was reported by the UK publication Financial Times that said the GILD drug Remdesivir has failed its first random clinical trial. The bears sold that news the rest of the day to close near Wednesday’s close. This produced ugly candles in all 3 major indices, with high wicks and closes near the lows. For the day the market was flat with the SPY down 0.01%, the DIA up 0.13%, and the QQQ down 0.21%. The VXX also lost slightly to 44.06 while the 10-yr bond yield fell to 0.603% and Oil (WTI) rallied again, up 22.5% to $16.87/barrel.

Jobless claims came in at 4.4 million (4.3 estimated). That takes the 5-week total to over 26 million claims, which corresponds to a 23% unemployment rate. However, after the close, the House passed the $484 billion “Relief Bill 3.5.” This came after a largely party-line vote to create a new panel with the authority to investigate the federal response to the pandemic. (Republicans seem to prefer to just trust the Administration, while Democrats have no such trust.)

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 2,745,786 confirmed cases and 191,806 deaths. In Germany, shoppers did not come out in numbers even though PM Merkel lifted their restrictions. The number of new cases in Europe continues to reduce in rate. However, in Asia, a second wave seems to be picking up steam in places as Indonesia reported its largest jump in new cases as did Singapore (mainly foreign workers the keep in dormitories).

In the US we now have 886,709 confirmed cases and 50,243 deaths. During the day, Dr. Fauci said he is not overly confident at the moment that we have what it takes (in terms of the testing capacity to support a successful reopening) and that we need to continue significantly ramping up testing and tracing capability. However, at the daily presser, President Trump said he disagrees with Dr. Fauci (his chief infectious disease expert) and that we’re doing great on testing. Still, he also said he may extend the social distancing guidelines into early summer and possibly beyond. This all comes as the first major openings start today in the state of Georgia.

Overnight, Asian markets were re across the board with the exception of Australia (+0.49%). In Europe, markets are also in the red so far today, with odd exceptions like the Swiss and Greeks). However, as of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to an open a half percent on the green side of flat.

Friday’s major economic news is limited to Mar. Durable Goods (8:30 am) and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (10 am). However, on the earnings front, AXP, FCX, PSG, SNY, VTR, and VZ report before the open.

The uptrend of the last couple days continues begrudgingly. Maybe this means we are climbing a wall of worry. However, oil has stabilized nicely, gaining back quite a bit from its Tuesday massacre (strongly negative price) and this is a calming factor for markets. Earnings continue to be “good” against dramatically lowered expectations, but companies continue to cancel guidance and cut budgets. For example, GOOGL cut their advertising budget in half after the close and instituted a hiring freeze for both permanent and contract workers.

All this is to say we still have an uncertain and volatile market, filled with gaps and news-driven intraday swings. In this environment, traders need to continue to be very focused, and either be fast (day trade) or slow (long-term holds). Be very cautious about any swing trades you take in this news-driven market. Also remember it’s Friday, which is a great time to lock-in some profits and reduce risk going into 2 days of news cycle that cannot be addressed before Monday.

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching