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Did the Gap-and-Reverse Mean Support?

May 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets did a classic gap-and-reverse on Wednesday as the bears gapped all 3 major indices significantly lower and then the bulls slowly rallied all day. All 3 indices printed strong white candles, but only the QQQ managed to completely close the gap. On the day, SPY lost 0.28%, DIA lost 0.52%, and QQQ gained 0.11%. The VXX rose almost 5% to 42.35 and T2122 fell down close to the oversold territory at 26.45. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.674% and Oil (WTI) fell over 3% to $63.40/barrel.

Bitcoin had one hell of a roller-coaster day Wednesday. It suffered more than a 30% drop (from over $43,000 to $30,000) before putting in a 30% rally (from $30,000 back up over $42,000) and then finally settled closer to the top of the range ($38,900). While some analysts called this a capitulation, others explain the fall as a reaction to the recent reversal of acceptance of the cryptocurrency. For example, the IRS and DOJ have recently both launched investigations into the main cryptocurrency exchange, China warned their financial institutions not to provide services related to any cryptocurrency, and TSLA announced no longer accepting the would-be currency in payment for their products.

In the April FOMC Meeting Minutes released Wednesday, the Fed basically said what it has been saying for months. They are unconcerned about that they see as transitory inflationary pressures. Specifically, “there is no need to change policy now, but it might be appropriate to consider tapering at some point” was the consensus view. Markets did not react since this was a known position. However, some analysts say the minutes showed the Fed may reconsider if rapid progress continues. As always, the glass is either half full or half empty depending on your perspective.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,802,324 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,949. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 29,975 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 591 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr, Fauci (NIH) told the press that infection rates are decreasing in all 50 states, down 18% nationally from one week ago. He told Axios that should the trend continue, it will be safe enough to resume indoor activities like dining soon. However, in answer to one question he reiterated that it is likely we will need a booster shot within a year of completing vaccination. JNJ announced Wed. evening that 100 million doses of its vaccine are held up in FDA inspection due to contamination problems at one of JNJ’s contract manufacturers (Emergent). No word on whether this is somehow related to JNJ falling behind promised delivery schedules to the EU.

Globally, the numbers rose to 165,629,929 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,433,602 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 637,518 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,360 new deaths per day. The UK is taking heat as it defends continuing to allow direct flights from India amid a 28% surge in cases of the Indian 617 variant. However, the number of cases is still just under 3,000 per day. As if semiconductor shortages were not bad enough already, Taiwan is now battling its worst outbreak (which pales in comparison to neighboring China, let alone the US). So far, businesses have not been ordered shut. However, that country is the world’s largest supplier of silicon semiconductors.

Asian markets were mixed overnight on mostly modest moves. New Zealand (+1.27%) and Australian (also +1.27%) were the largest movers with India (-0.83%) pacing the losses. In Europe, markets are broadly green with only Russia and Norway in the red. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (+0.52%), and CAC (+0.58%) are fairly typical of the continent at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mildly down open. The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a flat -0.03% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BJ, CSIQ, HRL, KSS, WOOF, RL, and TCEHY. Then after the close, AMAT, DECK, ENS, FLO, and ROST report.

After the nasty gap-down, the bulls were in charge all day Wednesday. However, they came up just a bit shy of erasing the gap except the QQQ which just barely got the job done. All 3 major indices now sit just above support that may have held yesterday. It is very hard to trade a gap-and-fade market. It’s even harder when markets may be at a short-term swing point. So, be careful. With that said, it is likely to be Jobless Claims that call the tune this morning…or more to the point, how those claims can be inferred to impact inflation. This is because it remains the fear of losing an “easy Fed” that has powered the bears for some time now.

If you’re trading this market, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Bears Look to Follow-up Tuesday Move

May 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened mostly flat on Tuesday and then ground sideways until about 1:30 pm. From there, the bears had control right into the close. This left us with ugly candles as all 3 major indices closed near their lows and also completed something similar to an Evening Star pattern (without the gap-up star) in all three. On the day, the SPY lost 0.86%, the DIA lost 0.74%, and the QQQ lost 0.68%. The VXX rose about 1.5% to 40.45 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 55.83. 10-year bond yields were down slightly to 1.639% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $65.46.

Better than expected earnings from big retailers were offset by a 9.5% drop in Housing Starts. In other news, it was leaked that AMZN is in talks to buy MGM, not for the casinos, but for the media content and as a counter-move to the agreed WarnerMedia merger with DISCA. It also came out Tuesday evening that the DISCA-WarnerMedia deal was structured so that it can easily be sold in the future. CNBC reports that AAPL, AMZN, and DIS might all be suitors to buy the merged group in the future.

In miscellaneous business news, Bitcoin fell below $40,000 for the first time in over 3 months. F also unveiled a new electric F-150 during a visit from President Biden. (The official unveiling will be Wed. evening.) This is just the latest of traditional carmakers moving to compete with the all-electric TSLA. QSR (Burger King) has thrown its hat in the ring of the Chicken Sandwich market with a new menu item launch. And RTX has announced it will cut office space by 25% as it is the latest company to realize that large portions of its work can be done remotely and at a lower cost.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,774,945 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 601,330. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,004 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 623 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported Tuesday that 60% of American adults have received at least one shot and just under 48% are fully vaccinated. This comes one day after new research showed that the PFE-BTNX and MRNA vaccines appear to be effective against the Indian 617 (double mutation) variant. So, great news on that front.

Globally, the numbers rose to 164,965,197 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,420,858 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 650,594 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,462 new deaths per day. The protests hoping to get the Tokyo Olympics cancelled continued to grow Tuesday, as only 1% of the Japanese population is fully vaccinated now. However, the head of the Intl. Olympic Comm. say the games will be held and safely. In that region, after recent outbreaks China has vaccinated 100 million people in just 9 days in Anhui and Lioning provinces. Meanwhile, in India, the country reported a record of over 4,500 deaths on Wednesday. For our part, the White House announced Monday that the US would share 80 million doses of vaccine with COVAX (the international vaccine sharing initiative) over the next six weeks, which are intended for poorer nations. This includes equal amounts of the PFE, MRNA, JNJ, and AZN vaccines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Hong Kong (+1.42%) and South Koreas (+1.23%) bucked the trend. However, Australian (-1.90%), Japan (-1.28%), Indonesia (-1.27%), and Singapore (-1.22%) were more typical of the region. In Europe, markets are red across the board. The FTSE (-1.14%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.13%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a nasty open. All 3 major indices are implying a one percent or larger gap down at this point in the morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC April Meeting Minutes (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 11:35 am). Major earnings reports before the open include ADI, JD, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIPS, and ZIM. Then after the close SQM, CSCO, CPRT, BEKE, KEYS, LB, SNPS, and ZTO report.

The bears showed up again on Tuesday afternoon and look to get some follow-through at the open today. The impact of supply chains that have been focused on efficiency and short-term profit (just-in-time, low inventories throughout the entire supply chain) continues to wreak havoc. In addition to very short supply of many products (i.e. chips), the situation has created abundant opportunities for companies to use this excuse to flex pricing power. So, inflation fear will continue to weigh heavily on the market psyche and with very limited economic news scheduled that might change the narrative, the bulls will need to dig deep to reverse that momentum.

If you’re trading to the long side, be very nimble, hedged and/or small. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IQ, HBI, F, DHI, IBB, FIS, GM, MJ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

T Refocuses in A Spinoff Move With DISCA

May 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls had their way on Friday. A large gap-up open was followed-up with a slow grinding drift higher the rest of the day. However, a selloff the last 5 minutes of the day pulled the 3 major indices off their highs. This let the SPY up 1.54%, the DIA up 1.12%, and the QQQ up 2.21%. The VXX fell almost 12% to 38.60 and the T2122 spiked back up just inside the edge of the overbought territory at 82.20. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 2.5% to $65.40/barrel. For the week, markets were down, but ended much closer to flat than to the lows.

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that T is in advanced talks to spin off its WarnerMedia (formerly TimeWarner, owners of HBO, TBS, TNT, and Warner Bothers Studios) into a merger with DISCA (Discovery Channel). This would be the latest refocusing of T (DirecTV was spun off in February) and would also be a move to better compete with NFLX and DIS. Early Monday, T announced that it had reached a deal to do just that.

In other Sunday news, Elon Musk followed up on the TSLA decision to “pause” allowing customers to buy cars with Bitcoin, by agreeing with a tweet that said Bitcoin holders would slap themselves when they find out TSLA had dumped all of its Bitcoin holdings. This implied TSLA had already or will soon sell its $1.5 billion of Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell below $43,000 on this tweet exchange. However, Musk later covered his tail (related to the SEC and his own board) by tweeting that he wanted to be clear that TSLA has not sold any of its BitCoin holdings yet.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,715,951 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 600,147. The number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 31,811 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 616 per day (the lowest number since July 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 163,767,582 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,394,487 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 672,304 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,329 new deaths per day. Both Singapore and Taiwan have ordered their toughest restrictions yet on Sunday. However, in Europe, Germany has started to reopen. Also in Europe, GSK (UK) and SNY (France) report they have had positive results in phase 2 trials of their own vaccine. If everything went well, there drug could be ready for release by the end of 2021. I’m not sure if these pharma giants see the pandemic as a continuing problem or are looking toward serving the less developed (unvaccinated now) portions of the world. In India, vaccinations drives to large parts of the country have been suspended as a Cyclone strengthens in the region. However, their number of new cases did fall below 300,000 for the first time in a month on Monday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.74%) and India (+1.67%) led the gains. Meanwhile, Taiwan (-2.99%) and Thailand (-1.76%) led the losses on virus resurgence in those countries. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red with a few minor exchanges bucking that trend at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.63%), DAX (-0.31%), and CAC (-038%) are typical, as usual, so far Monday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to moderate gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.42% open, the SPY implying a -0.40% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.46% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a trio of Fed speakers (Clarida at 10:05 am, Bostic at 10.25 am, and Clarida again at 10:25 am). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close TME reports.

The bears look to try taking some of the shine off of the Bulls 2-day run that ended last week. The coming week should continue to see markets focus on inflation (and the fear of its impacts on Fed policy). We will have Housing data on Tuesday, April Fed minutes on Wednesday, Philly Fed and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PMI data on Friday. There will also be a plethora of Fed speakers during the week. Although the bulk of earnings are behind us, there will be also a few stragglers reporting. So, there is plenty of room for volatility this week.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DDD, FUBO, SENS, NOK, PSTH, TECK, LLY, CCJ, JMIA, BCRX, LUMN, SKLZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Feds Probe Crypto As Musk Likes Doge

May 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

The chop resumed Thursday with a gap higher after Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected and major indices gapped higher and then followed through to the upside in the morning. The afternoon was a roller-coaster ride that ended on a 15-minute freefall. This left us with Bullish Harami candles in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ printed a indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type candle. On the day, the SPY gained 1.17%, the DIA gained 1.26%, and the QQQ gained 0.77%. The VXX fell 9%, but remains at 43.76 and T2122 (4-week New High-Low Ratio) rose just outside the edge of the oversold territory to 20.69.

During the day, it was revealed that Colonial had paid the $5 million ransom for their data and as a result are back to full operations starting Wednesday night. The supply of fuels at the end of the distribution channel should be back to normal by next week. In other news, DIS posted a big earnings beat, but the headline was a miss on revenue and lower than expected subscriber growth.

In legal news, the IRS and Dept. of Justice announced they have begun investigations into Binance, which is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Yet Dogecoin rallied as Elon Musk again tweeted about working with the coin’s developers. Meanwhile, GOOG is leading an effort that includes AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TWTR, IBM, ADBE, and others in a legal filing to support high-skilled workers (and their families) who have been in the US working on H-1B visas. This filing was opposing the legal action taken by a group called Save Jobs USA, who themselves had filed a lawsuit against the Dept. of Human Services for allowing the H-1B visa holders to stay under a different status after the previous administration moves to return them to their country of origin.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,626,097 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 598,540. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 36,648 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 625 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Thursday that it is time to rethink outdoor masking. Later in the day it was announced the CDC will release guideline changes that say vaccinated people no longer need masks either indoor or outdoors. However, the TSA said that the mask mandate for travel will remain into September.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,900,605 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,360,651 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 732,781 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,644 new deaths per day. There are concerns in Europe as the number of cases of Indian “Double Mutation” variant found in the UK has doubled in a week to over 1,300. This is still not out of control yet, but the growth rate is worthy of concern and caution as that country has now come out of restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. China’s Central Bank announced that they are concerned about inflation, but that it was not the top priority at the moment. On that news, Japan (+2.32%) and Shenzhen (+2.09%) led the gainers, while Singapore (-2.18%) led the losses. However, on the whole, the region was modestly higher on the day. In Europe, markets are green across the board on more modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.68%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (+0.74%) are all solidly higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe’s lead. The DIA is implying a +0.45% open, the SPY implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.03% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes April Import/Export Prices and April Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), April Ind. Production (9:15 am), as well as Mar. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to DSEY and PBR before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

The bulls stepped back in on Thursday, but a lot of work remains to be done before they overcome the damage done by the selloff earlier in the week. However, the Chinese Central Bank following the lead of our own Fed may be enough reassurance to let the bulls push again on Friday. Just remember that resistance overhead before getting too crazy on the long side.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume they will hold. Finally, remember that it’s Friday. So consider weekend risk (such as last weekend’s Colonial Pipeline news) and don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMC, DDD, FUBO, LUMN, MDLZ, KHC, PSTH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Gas Flows Again As PPI and Claims On Deck

May 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday, all the major indices gapped lower for the second straight day after Inflation came in higher than expected according to the April CPI (+$.2% vs +3.6% est.). The bears gave us follow-through to the downside the rest of the day, with stocks closing near their lows. The gave us ugly black candles in all 3 major indices, with only the SPY printing a candle signal (Bearish Doji Continuation Pattern). On the day, DIA lost 2.02%, SPY lost 2.12%, and QQQ lost 2.59%. VXX shot over 17% higher to 48.40 and T2122 fell deeper into the oversold territory to 3.92. 10-year bond yields spiked higher to 1.695% and Oil (WTI) rose just under nine-tenths of a percent to $65.85/barrel.

The Colonial pipeline, closed by the cyberattack, restarted operations on Wednesday evening. The company said it will be back to full capacity within 24 hours, but that it might take a few days for the entire fuel supply chain to get back to normal. This came after the weekly crude oil inventories saw a drawdown (and gasoline inventories saw a spike since refineries had no place to ship with the pipeline down).

In interesting crypto news, Elon Musk made headlines related to Bitcoin again. This time, 3 months after the company announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and less than two months after announcing it will allow customers to buy their cars using Bitcoin, TSLA has suspended vehicle purchases using the cryptocurrency. This comes after the Musk claimed concern over the increased use of fossil fuels in Bitcoin mining. However, such mining has always been very electric-intensive and most electricity has always been produced with fossil fuels. So, nothing has really changed since the start of the year, when TSLA moved the opposite direction. Overnight, Bitcoin was down 12% and there were sympathy losses by other cryptocurrencies.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,586,136 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 597,785. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 37,818 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 644 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). After the close, a scientific report was published showing that the PFE-BNTX vaccine is 90% effective against several variants, including the main UK variant. However, the Indian 617 variant (double mutation) was not tested. The CDC also reported that 28 cases of blood-clotting (out of 8.7 million shots given) have resulted from the JNJ vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,139,255 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,347,034 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as it is believed that India has peaked. The world average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 749,588 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,739 new deaths per day. As said, India appears to have made it past the peak of the recent surge. The government in Delhi reported that only one hospital called pleading for oxygen in the last 24 hours (as opposed to dozens and dozens per day previously). Test positivity rate is also down to a third of what it was two weeks ago. Still, the country reported over 362,000 new cases Thursday, which is huge, but far below the 414,000 record of less than a week ago (May 7) and is trending the right direction.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board. Japan (-2.49%), Hong Kong (-1.81%), and Thailand (-1.51%) led the way lower, but losses were over a percent region-wide. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red as well, with just a couple small exceptions as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.04%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.03%) lead the losses, with the CAC being most typical of the rest of the continent for now. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to mixed and modest open. The DIA is implying a -0.47% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.16% open. However, that is in front of Jobless Claims and Producer Inflation data in an hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and 2 Fed speakers (Waller at 1 pm and Bullard at 4 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BABA, ARKO, BILI, BAM, KELYA, EYE, and NICE before the open. Then, after the close, ABNB, DDS, FTCH, FOA, PLT, and DIS report.

With the fuel pipeline coming back online overnight, one of the big drivers of market fear has been reduced, if not eliminated. However, the main issue remains inflation fear (or rather fear that the Fed will need to tighten rates sooner than they have consistently said they would). So, based on yesterday’s out-sized CPI data, it is reasonable to expect the PPI number to also be higher than expected. This will give the bears more ammunition. With that said, markets are very oversold in the short-term and the major indicies (at least the DIA and QQQ) may be at a level where they can find some support.

Again, remember that you don’t have to trade every day…and you certainly don’t have to try to predict the reversal. Waiting for it to play out and then just following the trend is the higher probability play. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t assume they will hold. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Market is Watching Inflation Data

May 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

All the major indices gapped down hard on Tuesday, led by Oil names, following up on Monday’s bearish candle signals. However, from there we got a mixed bag. The bulls charged back with vengeance in the QQQ, erasing a 2% gap down by midday and then chopping sideways at Monday’s closing level. However, the SPY chopped sideways all day after its gap down to end up as an indecisive Doji. However, the DIA gapped down and then kept going before starting its sideways chop, ending as an ugly black candle. On the day, SPY lost 0.88%, DIA lost 1.39%, and QQQ lost 0.14% as high-tech names rejected the gap. The VXX gained over 7.6% to end at 41.18 and T21122 fell like a rock into the oversold territory at 15.42. 10-year bond yields rose again to 1.62% and Oil (WTI) was also up two-thirds of a percent to $65.36/barrel, and Copper closed at an all-time high as inflation fears and the pipeline cyberattack continues to sway markets.

Localized gasoline shortages are starting to kick-in across the East coast. 5-hour lines in a few places as overall supplies haven’t been majorly impacted. The problem is one of logistics with plenty of supply available at gulf-coast refineries. However, that is not where the end-users are located. Worst yet, truck and rail capacity is paltry compared to pipelines. So, if Colonial does not get its pipeline network back online soon, then refineries will need to cut production with no spare storage capacity available.

In miscellaneous market news, TSLA sales in China fell 27% in April, with global sales falling 12% for the month. AMZN won an appeal in an EU court (after the lower court had ruled the company had gotten an illegal tax advantage from Luxenbourg. So, the company will not need to pay the EU the $303 million in taxes the lower court had ruled was unpaid. All eyes are on Consumer Price data this morning as markets expect wild inflation numbers for the month.

Related to the virus, US infections are falling again after plateauing at a level from the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,550,115 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 596,946. However, the number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 39,254 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). Deaths are still mostly plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 635 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). After the close, the CDC announced that over 46% of the US populations have had at least one shot, with 35% now fully vaccinated. Still, the number of shots per day continues to drop as only about 1.5 million shots were administered (down from a high of 4.4 million), with many states not even ordering their full allotment of vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 160,398,044 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,333,548 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 762,953 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,850 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red again. Taiwan (-4.11%) was a major outlier, but Japan (-1.61%), South Korea (-1.49%) are more typical of the region. On the plus side, Hong Kong (+0.78%) and Shenzhen (+0.70%) were positive. In Europe, markets are more mixed and even lean to the green at this hour. The FTSE (+0.41%), DAX (+0.26%), and CAC (-0.09%) are typical of the modest moves seen as of mid-day. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are pointing to a down open. The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.36% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.58% open. However, that is in from of the CPI data.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes April CPI (8:30 am), Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), USDA World Ag Supply-Demand Est. (noon), 10-yr Note Auction (1 pm), Apr. Fed. Budget Bal. (2 pm) and 3 Fed speakers (Clarida at 9 am, Bostic at 1 pm, Harker at 1:30 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include APG, ARCO, and WWW before the open. Then, after the close, AMRK, DOX, COMP, WISH, CPNG, and VRM report.

The cyberattack on the US infrastructure is still giving the market chills as we brace for an inflation number that could give the bears fuel. Still, with expectations being that we will see the hottest inflation gain in over a decade (+3.6% on headline number), there is a chance that a slightly better than expected number helps the bulls. Yesterday’s big gap and then volatility leaves this a tough market to trade. With all that said, we still remain near all-time highs in an uptrend (at least in the large-caps) with the mid-term pullback in the QQQs still placing us just 5% from the all-time highs.

Once again I want to remind you that you don’t have to trade every day. Remember, that you set a stop for a reason and that there is no law saying you have to stick with a long (or short) if the market conditions change. Respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. If you’re not sure of the trend, stay out of the market until you do have a handle on it. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OLN, TMUS, TSN, FCX, DDD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bearish Signals And Fears Point Lower

May 11, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bears took control right from the open on Monday. And despite some intraday volatility, that’s the way markets closed as well. There was a massive rotation out of the tech sector as all the FAAMGT stocks took multi-percent hits. For the day, the SPY printed a Bearish Engulfing, the DIA printed a Shooting Star type, and the QQQ printed a big ugly Evening Star pattern. All 3 closed on their lows. On the day, SPY lost 0.98%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ lost a whopping 2.52%. The VXX was only up 4% to 38.29 and T2122 fell well out of the overbought area to 59.82. 10-year bond yields rose t o 1.6074% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $64.82/barrel.

Monday afternoon, the pipeline company (Colonial) that was shut down over last weekend by a cyberattack said its goal is to have service restored by the end of the week. RDS.A (one of the owners of Colonial) told reporters Monday that it is too early to tell how much impact the shutdown will have on product flow. The Wall Street Journal reported that this is the second major ransomware attack on the Energy sector with the first coming last year impacting a major Natural Gas pipeline network that the Department of Homeland Security did not announce and has not named. For what it is worth, the CEO of cloud and cybersecurity provider NET told CNBC that the world is seeing an unparalleled number of attacks as hackers are throwing everything but the kitchen sink against business customers right now.

A couple days ago, it was reported the birth rate in the US was down during 2020. Now, China has reported the slowest population growth in decades. Their census found a 0.53% growth rate per year, but no news was available on whether that was skewed by 2020. In both countries, the populations are aging and this will provide a significant obstacle for the economy (workforce and consumer numbers, spending habits, etc.).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,515,308 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 595,812. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 40,395 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 648 per day. On Monday the CEO of NVAX told CNN he expects the CDC to approve his company’s vaccine in Q3, just in time to start being used as a booster shot for people that were vaccinated by other company’s vaccines early. While phrased as a positive, this is another delay in their timeline to even ask for approval. In addition, the CDC has not announced if or when boosters will be needed, nor has the agency approved the usage of different brands or types of vaccines. Elsewhere the FDA has approved the PFE-BTNX vaccine for use by 12–15-year-olds.

Globally, the numbers rose to 159,664,402 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,319,534 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 771,610 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,878 new deaths per day. In not so hopeful news, the Philippines has detected its first two cases of the Indian 617 variant. However, on the positive side, India itself has now reported fewer than 400,000 new cases for a second day in a row.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red, with only China (Shanghai +0.40% and Shenzhen +0.35%) in the green. Taiwan (-3.79%), Japan (-3.08%), and Hong Kong (-2.03%) led to the downside. In Europe, markets are also strongly red across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.20%), DAX (-2.36%), and CAC (-2.05%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down follow-through to Mondays bearish candle signals. The DIA is implying a -0.46% open, the SPY implying a -0.79% gap down, and the QQQ implying a gap down of 1.40%.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. JOLTS (10 am) and 5 Fed speakers (Williams at 10:30, Brainard at noon, Daly at 1 pm, Bostic at 1:15 pm, and Harker at 2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AEE, ARMK, HBI, IGT, PRGO, RPRX, and before the open. Then, after the close, BGS, CHK, CNR, DAR, EA, GO, KGC, and VZIO report.

The cyberattack on the US infrastructure is still giving the market chills at the vulnerability of our economy and country. Things are no worse than they were last week, but now we have a reminder right in front of us. The herd of Fed speakers today are likely to continue to recent refrains of “stimulus and loose-money policy is the right plan and the inflation pain will be temporary.” However, it appears recently that Mr. Market is no longer believing the story as rotation out of the recovery names and high-fliers continues. We remain near all-time highs in the large-caps, but it looks like the bears will get to call the tune for a while as the Nasdaq leads the pullback.

Remember, that you set a stop for a reason and that there is no law saying you have to stick with a long if market conditions change. Just respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. Keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Avoid chasing trades you have missed and don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GIS, SDS, TSN, TZA, RWM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fuel Cycberattack Remains Top Story

May 10, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Friday, April Payrolls came in dramatically below expectations (+266k vs +1mil est.) and this led to a small gap higher with some follow-through the first hour. However, after that, the grind sideways (with even a bearish lean in the QQQ) lasted the rest of the day. This left the large-caps as big white candles that closed at new all-time highs, but the QQQ ended the day as a Doji still below the range of the previous 3 weeks. On the day, SPY gained 0.73%, DIA gained 0.69%, and QQQ gained 0.81%. The VXX lost more than 5.5% to 36.74 and T2122 spiked back well into the overbought territory at 92.78. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $64.82/barrel.

On Saturday, a ransomware cyberattack shut down the nations largest fuel pipeline network (which carries 45% of the fuel for the East Coast and Southeast US). While the pipeline company (Colonial Pipeline) is privately held, this report has had impacts across commodity prices, refiners, and other areas of the market. In addition, this attack likely is a follow-up on the supposedly Russian hack of SWI software in early 2020. As of Monday morning, much of the pipeline network remains shut down.

On Saturday night, the old “buy the rumor, sell the news” saying was proven again as Dogecoin fell 30% during Elon Musk’s late-night TV show appear. Must did mention the cryptocurrency in his opening monologue, but then said it was a “hustle.” That event crashed Robinhood crypto trading again as hordes of speculators tried to make it to the exit. On Sunday afternoon, perhaps in damage control mode, one of Musk’s other ventures, privately-held SpaceX announced it has named its Q122 mission “DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon” and will now accept Dogecoin as payment for lunar payloads. If nothing else, Musk certainly has the promotion routine down pat.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,476,781 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 595,812. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 40,686 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 662 per day. As of Sunday, CDC data shows that 58% of adults (and almost 46% of the entire population) have received at least one jab. Although encouraging, it is becoming harder to increase the numbers as vaccine hesitancy and complacency are now very high among those who are in the unvaccinated popluation.

Globally, the numbers rose to 159,030,410 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,308,346 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 777,228 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,853 new deaths per day. Spain partied Sunday as the country’s national curfew was lifted at midnight Saturday. Meanwhile, Asia remains the epicenter, with most if India under lockdown, Sri Lanka reporting record highs, Nepal closing hospital doors due to a lack of oxygen, and Pakistan feeling the impacts as well. In Japan, PM Suga said that although his country is reeling again, he will not cancel the Olympics again and if they are cancelled or pushed-back again it will be up to the Intl. Olympic Comm. to make that decision.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves. South Korea (+1.63), Australia (+1.30%), and India (+0.80%) led to the upside while New Zealand (-0.56%), Singapore (-0.56%), and Taiwan (-0.29%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see the same mixed picture as of mid-morning. The FTSE (+0.06%), DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (-0.25%) are tropical of the continent, with Greece (+1.68%) an outlier at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed open on modest moves. The DIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a flat +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.34% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include APD, BNTX, DBD, DUK, ENR, ES, GTES, GEO, J, MAR, REV, SGMS, TGNA, TSN, USFD, VTRS, and WB before the open. Then, after the close, ADV, ACM, BHF, ELY, CAPL, G, IFF, NLOK, OXY, RXT, RBLX, SCSC, SPG, UWMC, and WYNN report.

The cyberattack on the US fuel infrastructure and news everywhere of skyrocketing prices seem to be the main drivers in early premarket trading. So, the bears may find some traction early this week. However, Friday’s weak payroll number, and the blow-out earnings numbers we have seen imply that companies having cover for price increases may have a lot more to do with the situation than inflation. Regardless of this situation, we sit at all-time highs in a market that is technically extended. So, the bulls have had the short-term momentum but the bears have the reason in their corner today.

Remember, respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Avoid chasing trades you have missed and don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NKLA, GM, TLRY, KBH, CLF, LUMN, AG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

April Unemployment and Payrolls on Tap

May 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat after Jobless Claims came in better than expected and then vacillated sideways in a range most of the day. However, a rally the last hour took all 3 major indices out near their highs. This left us with strong white candles in all 3 indices and the DIA printed another all-time high close while the SPY is close to challenging the top of its own 3-week range. On the day, SPY gained 0.80%, the DIA gained 0.94%, and the QQQ remains the lowest of the three, but gained 0.75%. The VXX fell half a percent to 38.95 and T2122 fell slightly to 72.07. 10-year bond yields closed flat at 1.57% and Oil (WTI) fell more than a percent to $64.86/barrel.

Late in the day, the Fed published a report that warns investors to watch for significant declines in asset prices as high valuations have stretch markets. However, that did not prevent bulls from driving higher into the close. Also during the day, SEC Chair Gensler told Congress that trading has been “gamified” by features of some brokers like Robinhood. He also reiterated that he has asked SEC staff to investigate the “payment for order flow” system that routes orders through firms like Citadel and VIRT and is now the backbone of online brokers. Finally, he told the House Financial Services Committee that social media hype is a major concern for markets and crypto markets in general are lacking in investor protections (implying regulation may be needed).

After getting hammered Wednesday on the news of their treadmill recall, PTON made a small rebound (+1.4%) on Thursday. Then after hours, the company reported an earnings beat on both lines (albeit with earnings just as a lesser loss than expected). This included a 143% increase in sales, but also announced it will take a $165 million hit due to the recall. Finally, due to the recall, the company has also postponed the planned launch of a cheaper treadmill model that had been scheduled to go on sale at the end of May.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,369,192 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 594,006. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 46,288 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 677 per day. A new Kaiser Foundation survey found that the JNJ vaccine pause last month caused 9% of Americans to change their mind and remain unvaccinated and 7% to say they less likely to want any company’s vaccine. In better news, the CD Vaccine Advisers Committee scheduled a meeting for next week to discuss expanding the approved age ranges for PFE vaccine and follow-up on earlier discussions related to the JNJ blood-clotting issue.

Globally, the numbers rose to 156,784,352 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,272,175 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 793,820 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,901 new deaths per day. India reported yet another record of well over 414,000 new cases Friday. They also reported another state (around Goa) where the test positivity rate now exceeds 50%. (The worst part of this is that Goa is a major tourist destination and tourism has not stopped due to religious festivals and holiday plans in that part of the world.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but overall leaned modestly to the green side. Shenzhen (-1.95%) took the biggest hit and was an outlier. Taiwan (+1.71%) was an outlier to the upside and most exchanges had much more moderate moves. In Europe, with the exception of Greece, markets are strongly green across the board. Among the big 3 exchanges, the FTSE (+0.61%), DAX (+1.31%), and CAC (+0.19%) are all positive so far. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open as traders wait on the April Payrolls and Unemployment numbers.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr. Participation Rate, Apr. Avg. Hourly Earnings, and Apr. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AMCX, AXL, AMRX, ATH, CLMT, CI, SSP, ELAN, FLR, GCI, GLP, GVA, HE, IEP, IBP, ITT, LEA, MODV, QRTEA, SPB, TU, TIXT, and VTR before the open. Then, after the close, UNVR reports.

The bulls found some traction Thursday, but the mega-cap high-tech QQQ still remains in a short-term downtrend and the SPY has yet to break out of its recent range. Payrolls are likely to call the tune for early trading today, but long periods of vacillation, punctuated with bursts of volatility remain the mode of the market. So, continue to be careful, hedged, and/or nimble.

The first rule of successful trading is “don’t lose money,” not “trade every day.” Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. When you do trade, respect potential support and resistance levels, but you don’t have to assume they will hold. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success. Finally, remember it’s Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is out). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims Today UK Raises Forecast

May 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher marginally at the open Wednesday. From there, the large-caps vacillated sideways all day, while the QQQ dols off after the morning grind. This left us with a shooting star type candle (new all-time high close) in the DIA, and black candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.03%, DIA gained 0.23%, and QQQ lost 0.34%. The VXX fell 2.5% to 39.19 and T2122 rose, but remains outside the overbought territory at 75.14. 10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 1.57% and Oil (WTI) fell six-tenths of a percent to $65.30/barrel.

PTON lost 14.56% on Wednesday after announcing the recall of all their treadmills due to the risk of death. During the afternoon, SEC Commissions Gensler told Congress that he has a team studying the gamification of trading caused by features of brokerages like Robinhood. He also raised concern about the flood of orders that are routed through Citadel, VIRT, and a few other “order buyers.” He followed this by stating that he has asked the SEC staff to solicit public comment (a pre-requisite step to changing regulations on brokerages). So, action may be on its way…slowly.

After the close, Fed member Clarida told CNBC that he feels the Fed is a long way from the goals they have set and are therefore a long way from tightening policy (regardless of Treasury Sec. Yellen’s Tuesday statement). While certainly not definitive, this is an indication the Fed is signaling it will remain independent (or at least wants to be seen as independent) of comments and opinions of government entities. In unrelated central-bank news, the Bank of England has announced that it expects UK growth to surge 7.25% this year (a 2% increase over the previous 5% forecast and slightly above market analyst estimates for the revision).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,321,244 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 593,148. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below last summer’s peak to an average of 47,945 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 718 per day. MRNA announced after the close that unpublished early testing from an ongoing trial is indicating that a booster shot of their vaccine is showing promising immunity results against the South African and Brazilian variants. (No word on the “617” double-mutation variant that is ravaging India now.) In no so good news, the CDC announced Wednesday that the number of vaccine doses administered is now 20% lower than one week ago, despite more than adequate supply. This problem is highlighted when CVS announced they are now taking walk-ins for vaccination at more than 8,300 retail locations.

Globally, the numbers rose to 155,922,329 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,258,293 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 800,022 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 13,085 new deaths per day. The catastrophe in India continues as the country reported yet another peak of over 412,000 cases (which is staggering since most experts believe this to be an undercount by a magnitude of at least 3 times). However, in some good news, a study out of Qatar shows the existing PFE-BNTX vaccine is effective against the same 2 variants, but like with the MRNA news, no mention of the news “double-mutation” (617) variant.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Japan (+1.80%) and Thailand (+1.46%) led the gains while Shenzhen (-1.58%) and New Zealand (-0.75%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are also mixed and mostly flat on very modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.21%) is the exception, making a bigger move on the new BOE growth forecast. However, the DAX (+0.05%) and CAC (+0.07%) are more typical as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, if slightly green open (at least before economic data releases). The DIA is implying a +0.15% open, the SPY implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am) and 4 Fed speakers (Williams at 9 am, Bostic and Mester at 1 pm, and Kaplan at 6:05 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, AES, ABEV, BUD, APTV, MT, ARW, AVYA, BLL, BDX, BV, BIP, BLDR, CNQ, CAH, CNP, COMM, XRAY, UFS, SATA, EPC, EPAM, AVRG, EXPI, FIS, FLIR, HAIN, HWM, HII, IIVI, NSIT, IRM, K, KL, KTB, LIN, MGA, MMS, MDU, NIDD, MRNA, MUR, NJR, NLSN, NOMD, NRG, OGE, OPCH, PAE, PZZA, PENN, PRMW, PWR, REGN, SBH, SRLP, SUN, TPR, TRGP, TEN, TMX, BLD, THS, VNTR, VIAC, VSTO, VNT, W. WCC, and ZTS before the open. Then, after the close, AL, AQN, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, BECN, BKD, CVNA, ED, CVET, BAP, CWK, DBX, ENDP, EOG, EXPE, FND, FNF, FRG, IAC, IHRT, MTZ, MCK, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NFG, NWSA, OTEX, CNXN, PTON, PFSI, POST, QDEL, RGA, REZI, ROKU, SEM, SWX, SFM, SQ, TDS, TDC, TSE, and USM report.

The bulls tried and were met with immediate resistance Wednesday. The high-tech Nasdaq was protected especially strongly by the bears as the QQQ now looks to be in a definite pullback and trying to test support. Meanwhile, the large-caps remain in that sideways range they have been stuck in for going on 3 weeks. As I’ve said, indecision and chop are not a good environment for most traders. So, continue to be very careful, hedged, and/or nimble.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. The first rule of successful trading is “don’t lose money,” not “trade every day.” So, respect potential support and resistance levels, but you don’t have to assume they will hold. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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