Friday brought us a modest gap higher in all 3 major indices.  This let into initial selling the first 30 minutes and then a significant rally that lasted the rest of the morning.  The afternoon gave us a sideways chop that ended on an upswing the last half hour and saw all 3 major indices closing very near the highs of the day.  As a result, we printed shite candles and broke through the T-line in all 3.  However, the downtrend from the last couple of weeks has not yet been broken.  On the day, SPY gained 2.21%, DIA gained 2.47%, and QQQ gained 1.55%.  VXX fell 4% to 22.95 and T2122 spiked up into the overbought territory at 85.08.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 1.97% and Oil (WTI) fell nine-tenths of a percent to $92.00/barrel.

The main story continues to be the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that have resulted.  Over the weekend, some Russian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT payment system.  (Some credit cards just won’t work in Russia now as well as hitting foreign trade.) This is a way to target all non-energy and non-ag exports by Russia (which while significant are still minor relative to their Energy and Ag exports).  The EU also closed its airspace to Russian planes. Much more importantly, the EU banned all transactions with the Russian Central Bank, which will prevent Russia from accessing a little over half of their country’s bank reserves.  This forced the Russian Central Bank to raise rates 20% (to discourage borrowing from their depleted reserves).  On Monday emerging market currencies were slumping and the Ruble is down 30%.  As a safe haven, the dollar is climbing versus all currencies. In non-economic fallout, on Sunday, BP announced it will be selling (presumably at a loss) its nearly 20% state in the Russian state-owned energy company Rosneft. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, during the day Friday, the SEC proposed new Short Selling rules.  The rules focus on larger traders, defined as those with at least $10 million or 2.5% of the float short for any stock.  The regulation would require the shorts to submit monthly data to the SEC and also require brokerages or funds that lend shares for shorting to submit data on the transaction within 15 minutes of loaning the stock.  However, these proposals are still far from certain as the agency has extended the public comment period on these proposed regulations and we know large funds and brokerages oppose them.

This week also includes a broad range of economic data.   Monday and Tuesday see Mfg. PMI data.  Meanwhile, Wednesday brings both an OPEC meeting and US Oil Inventories (which may be important depending on the Russian invasion impacts on oil markets) as well as Fed Chair Powell beginning 2 days of Congressional testimony.  Then Thursday gives us Jobless Claims, Q4 Productivity, and Services PMI.  Finally, on Friday we get February Payrolls, Unemployment, and Participation data.  In addition to all of this, there will be several Fed speakers during the week.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Singapore (-1.59%) was an extreme outlier and one of only two exchanges in the red, but Shanghai (+0.32%), Japan (+0.19%), and South Korea (+0.84%) are representative of the region.  In Europe, markets remain in the red, with a few smaller exchange outliers.  For some reason, Denmark (+2.25%) is an extreme outlier to the green side.  The FTSE (-1.24%), DAX (-2.35%), and CAC (-2.95%) are typical of the region as Europe anticipates the pain of sanctions on their own economies.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another significant gap down.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -0.87% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.81% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have dropped sharply to 1.918% as money flees to bonds and Oil (WTI) shot up about 5% to 96.12 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes Jan. Goods Trade Balance and Jan. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am) and Chicago PMI (9:45 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BRK.B, CANO, DQ, XRAY, FMX, GLP, ITRI, JLL, KOS, NLSN, PRTY, TGNA, VEON, and VTRS.  Then after the close, ACHC, CAPL, DAR, ENDP, HPQ, OKE, PDCE, PRIM, SBAC, SGRY, VRM, WDAY, and ZM report.

Once again today we face another wave of shock from the Russian invasion (and sanctions) and yet again this is a situation where the market will likely over-react and then whipsaw. If you were not hedged or in cash going into the weekend, it is very likely too late to avoid some pain. However, you can avoid the panic and mistake of selling into the initial over-reaction this morning. Expect massive volatility today, but try to remain calm. If this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off as the impacts have had time to settle in. Try to ride out the initial shock this morning and be very, very, leery of chasing any new trades (either direction) until things settle down. Once again, today would be a good day to turn off the TV and go fishing or sit on your hands if you were not prepared ahead of time.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RUN, SQQQ, ZEN, RWM, SNAP, SPCE, TMUS, TECK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a dramatic turn-around as a major Russian Invasion gap-down across the board was met by a strong all-day rally that closed near the highs in all 3 major indices as well as the small-caps (IWM).   This led to Bullish Belthold signals and green days in all 4 indices.  (Remember that all candle signals require confirmation.) On the day, SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ gained a massive 3.36%.  This was a tremendous feat after they had gapped down between 2.5% and 3.5%.  VXX lost 3% on the day to 23.94 and T2122 jumped up out of the oversold territory to 25.54.  10-year bond yields recovered from their premarket lows to close down modestly to 1.965% and Oil (QTI) gained 1.35% to $93.25.

The Russian invasion continues today as Russian troops near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.  Meanwhile, the West is claiming they are now instituting “crippling sanctions.”  However, that’s debatable since neither of the so-called “nuclear sanctions” was issued.  (Those being tariffs or embargoes placed on the main Russian exports of Oil, Nat. Gas, and Wheat as well as Russia being kicked out of the SWIFT payment system, which would have made all international trade very hard and very expensive.)  The main sanctions that were put in place are the freezing of Russian bank assets and a prohibition on those banks from raising funds in Western financial markets.  However, it is theoretically possible that Germany, Spain, Italy, and other holdouts may still change their minds on those hammer-blow sanctions as the invasion and occupation wear on.  The bottom line is that, as of now, Markets do not perceive major disruptions or problems for the global economy from the invasion.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, Q4 GDP came in at 7.0% as expected and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were very slightly better than expected.  However, Jan. New Home Sales came in slightly less than expected and, interestingly, Crude Oil Inventories came in much higher (4.1 million barrels higher) than was expected.

On the earnings front, after the close, OXY, VMW, SQ, ADSK, ETSY, COIN, UHS, TIMB, SFM, and AAN all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, HKXCY, HEI, FTCH, TPC, EIX, and TV all reported beats on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, EOG, DELL, AEM, CVNA, OPEN, and OPK beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  However, INTU and RKT missed on both revenue and earnings lines.

So far this morning, CM, SRE, NTIOF, LAMR, ICAGY, CRI, CNK, MODV, and SAFM have reported beating on both lines.  Meanwhile, LI, SSREY, GTN, and CLMT missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  On the other side, FL and TV missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, QRTEA, SSP, and GVA have reported misses on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Hong Kong (-0.59%) was the only red in the region.  Meanwhile, India (+2.53%), Japan (+1.95%), and Shenzhen (+1.21%) led the bounce back.  In Europe, the rebound is stronger with significant gains all across the continent at mid-day.  The FTSE (+2.41%), DAX (+1.63%), and CAC (+1.99%) can even be said to be laggards in the rebound as most of the smaller exchanges have moved more.  Even Russia (+12.21%) has bounced quite a bit as the sanctions were not as harsh as feared.  Of course, Europe still has an afternoon of trading before they can book this rebound.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 1.993% and Oil (WTI) has bounced back half of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Jan. PCE Price Index, and Jan. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Pending Home Sales (both at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AES, CLMT, CM, CRI, CNK, SSP, EVRG, FL, GTN, IEP, LI, MODV, PNW, QRTEA, SRE, and VST.   There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls in the US showed incredible resilience in the face of Russia’s invasion yesterday. For example, the QQQ saw a 7% swing from the opening lows to closing highs. That being said, one gap-down rebound candle does not break the bearish trend and certainly does not mean a new trend has started. We also need to recognize that the volatility is extremely high. (For example, the ATR5 of QQQ is $13.) So, if you’re going to trade in this environment, be fast, be hedged, and be prepared to withstand significant volatility. Do not be the guy that assumes he picked the bottom and will feel no pain. Also, keep in mind that this is Friday and there is a weekend news cycle in front of us (which can be forever when there is a hot war on the doorstep of a huge part of the world economy…the EU).

Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. When you do trade, trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Be careful out there.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UPST, NKLA, PLUG, GME, HACK, CF, ZEN, MSFT, CHGG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The bears sprang a bull trap on Wednesday as all 3 major indices gapped higher 0.70%-1% at the open.  This came after there was no active fighting between Russia and Ukraine overnight.  However, that was the highs of the day, and markets sold off from that point (with a brief lunchtime rebound) and drove lower all the way into the close.  This left us with big, ugly black candles and gave us the lowest close since June 2021 in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 1.75%, DIA lost 1.35%, and QQQ lost 2.56%.  The VXX was up 5 and a half percent to 24.64 and T2122 fell even further into the oversold territory to 8.04.  10-year bond yields spiked to 1.986% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $92.02/barrel.

During the day Wednesday, Ukraine called up 36,000 reserves to support their active military and have declared a state of emergency (allowing them to set curfews, restrict travel, and control press). Ukraine also had to deal with a cyber-attack that took many of its government and banking computer systems offline.  Then overnight, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine as had been predicted by the US and NATO allies.  The incursion is on 3 fronts at the moment and Kyiv has been shelled.  So, expect more sanctions and whatever retaliatory measure (cyber and cold war) that may result.  Oil has already spiked above $100/barrel and the safety trade will be the order of the day in markets.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Not that it matters today, but after the close, FNF, EXR, LYV, LNVGF, BBWI, LILA, UCTT, EVH, EBAY, NTAP, BKNG, HTZ, MYRG, AMED, and BMRN all reported beating on both lines.  Meantime, BTG, LHCG, LILAK, RCII, and PTVE all missed on earnings while beating on revenue.  On the other side, MANT missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, WES, HLF, FLS, FTI, and SNBR all reported misses on both lines.

Again, not that it matters today, but so far this morning RY, BUD, DDAIF, NTES, MRNA, NEM, ABEV, AEP, CBRE, PWR, ARKAY, and PZZA have reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BABA, TECK, DISH, NOMD, and SPTN have reported beating on earnings while missing on revenue.  On the other side, AMT, KDP, LYG, DISCA, WPP, NCLH, AHEXY, AHCO, JMIA, and MITT reported earnings misses but beat on revenue.  However, W, UTHR, PAAS, PRMW, and GCI have missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board as is to be expected in time of war impacting global trade in at least Oil, Natural Gas, and Wheat along with any sanctions that may prevent business of any sort with Russia.  India (-4.78%) was the big loser, but the damage was more than 2% everywhere except Malaysia (-0.77%).  Hong Kong (-3.21%), South Korea (-2.60%), and Shenzhen (-2.20%) are pretty representative of the regional reaction.  In Europe, again as would be expected, the reaction has been worse.  The FTSE (-3.01%) is the least impacted, the DAX (-5.01%) and CA (-4.69%) are typical.  Interestingly, the Russian exchange (-34.10%) has suffered a massive hit.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a major gap down at the bell.  The DIA implies a -2.35% open, the SPY is implying a -2.41% open, and the QQQ implies a -2.92% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields dropped dramatically to 1.859% as traders bid up bonds on the safety trade and Oil (WTI) shot up over 8.2% but has “backed off” to $98.93/barrel at the moment (it was well over $100 earlier).

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Jan. New Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Bostic at 11:10 am, Mester at noon, and Waller at 8 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, BABA, AEP, AMT, BUD, AZUL, BALY, CRC, CBRE, CQP. LNG, CCO, DISCA, DISH, SATS, ELAN, EME, EXPI, FCN, GCI, IBP, IRM, KDP, MRNA, NTES, NOMD, NCLH, NRG, OGE, PZZA, PRMW, PEG, PWR, RY, SJI, SPTN, SRCL, SHOO, TRGP, TECK, VIV, TFX, TEN, TNC, and W.   Then after the close, ADSK, SQ, CVNA, CENX, CHE, COIN, CODI, CVET, CWK, DELL, EIX, EBS, ERIE, ETSY, FTCH, FND, INTU, MTZ, MNST, OXY, ZEUS, OPEN, OVV, PBA, RKT, SEM, SM, SWN, SFM, TPC, UNVR, UHS, VMW, WSC, and INT report.

In the face of the Russian invasion, we can expect wholesale selling and rotation toward safety trades (Bonds, Gold, Utilities, etc.). Expect massive volatility today, but it is likely too late to do much damage control unless you were hedged before the shock. If this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off as the sanctions and impacts have had time to settle in. However, that won’t help today, at least not early. Personally, I will be looking to ride out the initial shock in positions where it’s too late to be ahead of the news and I definitely won’t chase any new trades until things settle down. In short, today would be a good day to go fishing or sit on your hands if you were not prepared ahead of time.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today – this is not the time to step in front of fear and massive volatility. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a modest gap down on the Russian “soft invasion” of Ukraine.  Then, after a half-hour of volatility, markets sold off most of the day.  This left us with gap-down, indecisive Spinning Top or Doji candles in all 3 major indices.  All 3 are also at the breakout point of a bearish “Dreaded h” pattern.  On the day, SPY lost 1.07%, DIA lost 1.46%, and QQQ lost 1.00%.  This put all 3 into correction territory, with the QQQ in a bear market (depending on how you measure). The VXX was flat at 23.36 and T2122 dropped down into the oversold territory at 10.24.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.944% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.32% to $92.27/day.

The US and Europe hit Russia with symbolic, but largely meaningless, sanctions as a result of the soft invasion of Ukraine. These included sanctions on a handful of smaller Russian banks (which don’t get their funding from abroad, so the impact is not heavy). Probably most notable was Germany’s decertifying the “Nord Stream 2” Natural Gas pipeline.  (50% of Nord Stream 2 funding came from Western Europe and Russia responded by threatening that Europe would soon be paying 20% more than the record price for its natural gas.) Still, this sanction has a minimal impact since the pipeline was not yet online and nobody thinks that the pipeline project won’t eventually be given a green light again.  The fear the market is likely to focus on is that Russia recognized the entire DonBas region as being separate from Ukraine, not just the area already controlled by Russian-backed Separatists.  That means they claim to support Separatist “ownership” of well over 3 times as much territory as the Separatists actually now control.  This implies a Russian offensive in support of its friends to at least the borders of the DonBas region.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, both the Mfg. and Services PMIs came in higher than expected.  Even Conf. Board Consumer Confidence slightly beat expectations.  Then, after the close, MOS, AGR, TOL, PANW, FANG, CDNS, PSA, RXT, TXRH, NDSN, O, TDOC, and MTDR all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, MELI, CWH, RRC, and EXAS beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, VRSK, missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, CZR and RIG missed on both lines. 

So far this morning, LOW, ETR, OMI, ODP, BCO, PSN, TNL, WWW, and NI have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BCS, VIPS, and OSTK reported beats on earnings but came in short on revenue.  On the other side, HFC, TAP, DAN, CSTM, VRT, ARKO, and PRG all missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  As of now, there have been no reports that missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green.  Japan (-1.71%) was by far the most bearish with Shenzhen (+1.93%) by far the most bullish.  The rest of the region saw modest gains in the half of a percent range.  In Europe, markets are rebounding with green seen across the board at mid-day.  Of note, Belgium (+1.54%) is a full percent ahead of the rest of the continent.  The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.99%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open.  The DIA implies a +0.52% open, the SPY is implying a +0.63% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.98% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have risen to 1.969% as traders step back from bonds and Oil (WTI) is down half of a percent in early trading after yesterday’s rise.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Wednesday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BCS, BHC, BCO, CLH, CSTM, DAN, ETR, FYBR, GIL, HFC, IHRT, LOW, TAP, NI, ODP, OSTK, OMI, PSN, PBR, PRG, SBGI, TJX, TNL, VRT, VIPS, and WWW.  Then after the close, AEM, AMED, ANSS, ACA, BBWI, BKNG, CHK, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, CW, DK, EBAY, WTRG, FLS, FNF, FRG, HLF, HTZ, IR, KALU, LHCG, LYV, MANT, VAC, MYRG, NTAP, OPAD, PTVE, PARR, RCII, RYI, SNBR, SUM, FTI, and UCTT report.

The bulls would sure like to do at least a relief rally not that the S&P has entered correction territory. However, Ukraine is in the process of declaring a state of emergency and has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately. The good news is, at least as of now, there is no active fighting between formally Russian troops (as opposed to the Russians posing as Ukrainian Separatists) and Ukrainian forces. So this morning, traders are likely to be over the initial shock and happy there is no active fighting. Look for that little relief rally to ensue. However, keep in mind that the technical damage and overhead resistance are still major hurdles to the bulls getting the market into full rally mode. So, expect volatility, fear news causing market knee-jerks, and trade cautiously.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ABBV, SYY, FTNT, KO, CHKP, CVS, FFIV, CHD, T. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets opened more or less flat.  Then, after waffling for the first hour, all 3 major indices sold off to the lows about 1:20 pm.  Then the options expiration buying took all 3 on a rally into 3 pm.  However, the last hour saw another, smaller, down wave.  This left us with black candles with fairly large wicks including Spinning Tops in the two large-caps indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.65%, DIA lost 0.79%, and QQQ lost 1.14%.  Meanwhile, the VXX gained over 2% to 23.45 and T2122 dropped closer to the oversold territory at 22.49.  10-year bond yields fell back to 1.927% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $91.80/barrel.

On Monday, Russia recognized Ukrainian Separatist Regions as independent nations and ordered his armed forces into those regions under the pretense of protecting them against Ukrainian aggression.  This and the Western reactions to it are likely to be the main market drivers Tuesday.  Among these reactions are the likely halt of Natural Gas imports to Western Europe from Russia and the cancellation of a Biden-Putin meeting this week.  Nonetheless, as of 7 am, US futures have recovered most of the overnight losses (that occurred when the soft invasion started).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The market is down 10%-20% from the all-time highs.  However, many have recently asked, ”given heavy inflation, huge government debt, unprecedented supply chain snarls, etc., why hasn’t the market fallen off a cliff.”   The short answer is that the market is not the economy.  A more nuanced answer is that most companies simply have more pricing power and consumers are more resilient to inflation than expected.  So, companies are able to charge prices even higher than their cost increases and this has/is resulting in strong profits.  In other words, we hear a lot of tales of woe about inflation, but we do not hear a lot of stories about companies shutting down operations because they are unable to pass on increased costs.  

Another factor is that many of the biggest corporations are putting a floor in markets in a sense.  For example, Bloomberg reported Saturday that the 10 largest stock buyback programs this year are 30% larger than they were a year ago.  So, companies like AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT, CSCO, PG, CHTR, V, SBUX, and WMT are spending tens of billions of dollars to essentially prevent their stock prices from falling.  In addition to those big boys, a large number of “smaller” companies had suspended their buybacks during 2020 and the first half of 2021, but they are also now using that saved money to protect their share prices again.  As a result, well over $265 billion (a record, which broke the record set just the previous quarter) was spent on buyback programs in Q4-21.  And those numbers are expected to rise again in Q1-22.  The estimate is that 2021 saw a record near $900 billion in stock buybacks in the S&P500 members and more expected this year.  So, simply put, it’s hard for prices to fall too far with massive buy orders sitting out there to absorb sell orders.

Overnight, the Asian markets were down across the board, but in varying degrees on the Russian soft invasion.  Hong Kong (-2.69%), Japan (-1.71%), Taiwan (-1.38%), and South Korea (-1.35%) paced the losses.  Thailand (-0.19%), New Zealand (-0.34%), and Malaysia (-0.36%) were the closest thing to gainers in the region.  Quite interestingly, European markets are mixed on fairly modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.25%), DAX (-0.25%), and CAC (-0.02%) lead the region, but there are 5 green exchanges, and only Russia (-4.52%) is down hard on the Monday news.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down open (but significantly recovered from overnight lows).  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.38% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.942% and Oil (WTI) is the big winner on the geopolitical news, up 3.69% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CNP, CFX, CBRL, CVI, EXPD, FLR, HD, HSBC, JELD, KBR, LPX, M, MDT, MIDD, NHYDY, TPX, BLD, TRU, VNTR, and WLK.  Then after the close, A, ARGO, AGR, BTG, BWXT, CDNS, CZR, CWH, CSGP, FANG, ESI, JBT, MELI, MOS, NDSN, PANW, PSA, RXT, RRC, O, TDOC, TXRH, TOL, RIG, TA, and VRSK report.

So far this morning, HD, M, FLR, CNP, WLK, NXST, LPX, CFX, BLD, and CEQP have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, MDT and KBR reported beats on earnings while missing on revenue.  On the other side, JELD and TRU missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  However, HSBC, TPX, and VNTR all missed on both lines.

News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: Rick is back, but no trade ideas today til the turmoil settles a bit. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down Thursday on more Russia invasion news/fear.  After an hour of follow-through, all 3 major indices ground sideways until early afternoon.  At that point, we got the final wave downward before going out on a half-hour of sideways action. This left us with large black candles that have failed the T-line in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 2.13%, DIA lost 1.71%, and QQQ lost 2.97%.  The VXX rose almost 12% to 22.96 and T2122 dropped all the way back down to 30.94 (in the lower end of the mid-range).  10-year bond yields fell again to 1.965% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.21% to $91.59/barrel, which is a bit odd if a Russian invasion is truly the main Oil market driver.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Economic data for the day was a mixed bag but leaned to the bearish side again.  January Building Permits came in a couple hundred thousand higher than expected, but January House Starts came in about 70,000 less than expected.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in 30k higher than was expected and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in even worse than the expected terrible number at 16 (20 expected, 50 means expanding).  To top it off, Fed Hawk Bullard, reiterated his calls for fast, aggressive, and continuing Fed action as he repeated his claims that the Fed has waited too long to tackle inflation and it could get out of control.

After the close Thursday, TDS, KEYS, QDEL, AL, RDFN, and EXEL all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, USM and ROKU beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, DLR and VTR both missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.

So far this morning DKNG, BLMN, and DE have reported beats on both lines.  However, PPL and ARNC beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, B beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  There have been no reports yet today that missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red.  Hong Kong (-1.88%), Australia (-1.02%), and New Zealand (-0.94%) led the region lower. However, Shanghai (+0.66%) and Shenzhen (+0.27%) managed to stay green.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the green side at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (-0.13%), and CAC (+0.52%) are pacing gains with a few smaller exchanges as well as Russia (-0.88%) lagging.  Fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains the main story in Europe in the early afternoon.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.62% open at this hour.  10-year bonds are up slightly to 1.974% and Oil (WTI) is down over 2% in early trading on news of scheduled tentative Russia-US talks next week.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Existing Home Sales (10 am), a Fed Monetary Policy Report (time TBA), and 3 Fed speakers (Waller at 10:45 am, Williams at 11 am, and Brainard at 1:30 pm).  Also, remember that US Markets are closed on Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARNC, BLMN, DE, DKNG, and PPL.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close

News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down a half of a percent or so on Wednesday as overnight word from NATO said that actually Russia is continuing to bring more troops to the border of Ukraine.  After that gap, we saw a little morning follow-through to the downside before grinding sideways in a tight range until 2pm.  Then the Fed minutes came out with no big unexpected news and markets rallied to the highs of the day before grinding sideways into the close.  This left us with white Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices and little change.  On the day, SPY gained 0.11%, DIA lost 0.16%, and QQQ lost 0.03%.  The VXX fell 4% to 20.53 and T2122 was flat and remains just inside the overbought territory at 81.52.  10-year bond yields fell just a bit to 2.029% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $90.47/barrel.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

We had some good economic news for a change on Wednesday.  January Retail Sales came in almost twice the expected growth at +3.8% (month on month), which isn’t bad considering the prior month included Christmas.  January Industrial Production also came in better than expected at +4.08%.  Crude Oil inventories managed to show a build of 1.121 million barrels when a drop of 1.572 million barrels had been forecast. As mentioned, the January Fed minutes revealed nothing new. The FOMC is ready to raise rates in March but is still divided on how aggressive and how often rates should be raised and how quickly the Balance Sheet should be reduced by selling the bonds they’ve bought in the last 2 years.

After the close, NVDA, CSCO, ET, AIG, AMAT, SNPS, MRO, HST, CYH, ATUS, PXD, UFPI, CNDT, and ALSN all reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, KGC, ALB, WAB, and OCDX missed on the revenue line but beat on earnings.  On the other side, DASH, TROX, SAM, H, and SPWR all missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  However, WCN, AWK, CAKE, and PEGA all missed on both lines.

So far this morning, WMT, SO, BAX, WST, POOL, EPAM, LKQ, and OGN have all reported beats on both earnings and revenue.  (WMT also reiterated its forecast for the year, expecting good growth and earnings in the current economic environment.)  Only SEE has reported any miss, as it came in short of expectations on earnings, but beat on revenue.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves. Thailand (+0.60%), South Korea (+0.53%), and Shenzhen (+0.35%) led the gainers while Japan (-0.83%) and India (-0.10%) were the only losers.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the downside at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.50%), DAX (+0.14%), and CAC (+0.22%) lead as usual, but Russia (-2.09%) is an outlier after making claims the Ukrainians are shelling Separatists (really Russians) in the break-away Eastern part of Ukraine. Ukraine denies this claim and says it is a false-flag operation.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a red open.  The SIA implies a -0.27% open, the SPY is implying a -0.37% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.53% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down significantly again (retesting 2%) and (oddly given the news from Russia) Oil (WTI) is off 1.7% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Jan. Building Permits, Jan. Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  We also have 2 scheduled Fed speakers (Bullard at 11 am and Mester at 5 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include AAWW, AN, BAX, COMM, EPAM, FRO, GPC, GEO, LKQ, MD, NICE, OGN, POOL, POR, RS, SAFM, SEE, SO, SCL, SYNH, TPH, TRN, USFD, VC, VNT, WMT, and WST.  Then after the close, AL, LNT, AEL, AMN, ATR, ED, DLR, DBX, KEYS, LBTYA, MATX, RLGY, RDFN, RBA, ROKU, TDS, USM, VTR, and AUY report.

Russian claims that the separatists (largely its own forces) in Eastern Ukraine were shelled (and Ukrainian denial and counter-claims it was a false-flag operation) have sent a shiver into European markets and ticked US futures down overnight. However, earnings news and forecasts are good (including Walmart) so far this morning and we have a fair amount of earnings coming before the bell. Expect more volatility and reversals with the market hyper-sensitive to both geopolitical tensions and Fed inflation reaction news (and yes, we have both a Fed Hawk and Fed Dove speaking today). So, stay nimble and/or hedged to volatility, and remember we have both potential support and potential resistance nearby.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Russia started pulling back some of their troops (away from Ukraine) and the bulls jumped for joy Tuesday.  All 3 major indices gapped higher (1% – 1.5%) at the open, but then they meandered sideways, retesting the open level.  The large-cap indices continued the meander sideways for the rest of the day, but the QQQ caught a modest afternoon rally, all 3 of them closed near the highs of the day.  DIA and SPY tested but were unable to break through their T-lines, but QQQ managed to get that done.  This left us with Morningstar signals in all 3 indices.  IWM was the strongest of them all as it was clearly a risk-on day.  On the day, SPY gained 1.61%, DIA gained 1.25%, and QQQ gained 2.49%.  The VXX fell 8.24% to 21.39 and T2122 shot all the way up into the edge of the overbought territory at 81.75.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.043% and Oil (WTI) “plummeted” 3% to $92.07/barrel.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, CINF, ANDE, ALC, DVN, WELL, ENLC, ABNB, AKAM, MRC, ACCO, CLW, and WIRE all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, VIAC, MCY, IAC, RBLX, CF, WYNN, LZB, and CRK all missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  REZI and INVH missed on revenue, but beat on earnings.  However, WFG and SEDG reported misses on both lines.

Contrary to yesterday’s “the Russians are heading back to their barracks” message, this morning the market is greeted with a message from the other camp.  NATO head Jens Stoltenberg told the press today that “it appears that Russia continues their military buildup (at the border).”  British PM Johnson also told the press of troubling intelligence such as Russian Field Hospitals being constructed near the border of Belarus and Ukraine.  He went on to threaten to stop Russian companies from raising capital via London’s financial markets if an invasion does take place.  The point is, we did not have a clear picture last week, earlier this week, or today about what Putin will actually do.  So, volatility is all that a trader can say is almost certain.

Overnight, the Asian markets were green across the board with the lone exception of India (-0.17%).  Japan (+2.22%), South Korea (+1.99%), Taiwan (+1.56%), and Hong Kong (+1.49%) led the way higher.  In Europe, stocks lean to the green side on mostly modest moves, but there is a handful of red showing at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.22%), Dax (+0.03%), and CAC (+0.05%) are the big dogs, but the smaller exchanges are showing a bit more move (both ways) in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly red open.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.02% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat, but Oil (WTI) is up 1% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Jan. Retail Sales and Jan. Import/Export Price Indices (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Dec. Business Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include AMCX, ADI, GOLD, BGCP, CRL, CROX, DNB, GRMN, GNRC, HLT, KHC, NUS, OC, R, SHOP, SITE, SAH, SUN, VMC, and WAB.  Then after the close, ALB, ALSN, ATUS, AIG, AWK, AR, AMAT, APP, SAM, BFAM, CAKE, CSCO, CYH, COMP, CNDT, CPRT, DASH, ET, EQIX, HST, H, KAR, KGC, MRO, NTR, NVDA, OCDX, PXD, RUSHA, SNPS, TROX, UFPI, VMI, and WCN report.

The premarket futures are flat this morning ahead of Retail Sales numbers. With cold water tossed on the bullish knee-jerk reaction (assuming Russian-West tensions were over) this morning, it’s possible markets wait to see if anything can be learned by picking through the tea leaves of the Fed minutes. With that said, the public statements make it clear the Fed is divided into at least 2 factions (Hawks who want to see at least a half of a percent hike in March and 1% before July and Doves who want a quarter percent hike in March, followed by a “let’s see what that does before we do anything else” approach). That leaves markets uncertain…and the one thing markets hate most is uncertainty. So, stay nimble and/or hedged to volatility, and remember we have both potential support and potential resistance nearby.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was an interesting day, with a 1.5% swing in premarket futures (after Russia’s President Putin said “okay” to his Foreign Minister saying they should continue talking to the West because there was always a chance to reach a deal).  The net result was a flat open and a whipsaw day that ended up only moderately moved.  All 3 major indices printed indecisive, Spinning Top type candles.  On the day, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.40%, and QQQ gained 0.12%.  The VXX rose slightly to 23.31 and T2122 dropped just into the oversold territory at 18.75.  10-year bond yields spiked back up to 1.991% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 2% to $94.92 (on intraday news that the US was closing its Embassy in Kyiv and rumors that the Russians were moving toward the border of Ukraine).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The Fed made no announcement following their emergency meeting on Monday, and based on comments made to the press it is likely they have no consensus.  (Bullard called again for a 1% increase before July 1, George said she supports a more gradual approach, and Daly said she favors one modest hike in March and then wait and see.)  However, Reuters reports that by afternoon, futures of the Fed Funds Rate showed that traders are now under a decreased belief the Fed will raise rates before the March Fed meeting (down to 3% implied probability from 30% last Friday).  In addition, futures on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (the topic of the emergency meeting) now show traders only believe there is a 2% chance of that rate rising before the March Fed meeting (down from 16% on Friday).  These seem to indicate a strong belief there will be no rate increases prior to March.  Of course, traders can be wrong, but leaks (even from the Fed) also happen.

In earnings news, after the close on Monday, AAP, AMKR, CAR, TNET, SCI, CLR, and ANET all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BKD, PRI, and VNO all missed on earnings but reported beats on revenue.  So far this morning, MAR, IQV, ALLE, HSIC, ZTS, and BWA have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, FIS beat on earnings but came in light on revenue.  Finally, LDOS just reported a miss on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed and varied.  India (+3.03%), Shenzhen (+1.70%), and Malaysia (+1.00%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.03%), Hong Kong (-0.82%), and Japan (-0.79%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board on the Russian “step back” news at mid-day.  Only Norway (-0.34%) is in the red, while the FTSE (+0.70%), DAX (+1.84%), and CAC (+1.56%) are typical of the continent.  Russia (+3.08%) is an outlier as that country has started to return some troops to their home bases (away from Ukraine).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a large gap higher.  The DIA implies a +1.29% open, the SPY is implying a +1.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +2.20% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are spiking to 2.035% and Oil (WTI) is down more than 3.6% on the Russia-Ukraine news.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is Jan. PPI and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include ALLE, ARCH, ABG, BWA, ECL, FIS, FSV, HSIC, HUN, IQV, LDOS, LGIH, MAR, RPRX, QSR, SABR, TRP, WCC, and ZTS.  Then after the close, ACCO, ABNB, AKAM, ANDE, CF, CINF, CLW, CRK, DVN, WIRE, ENLC, GXO, IAC, INVH, LZB, MCY, MRC, REZI, RBLX, SEDG, TX, TOST, VIAC, WELL, and WYNN report

Pent-up bullish energy is likely to be released this morning as Russia has started moving some of its troops back away from the Ukrainian border. That news has sparked strong rallies in Europe and in the US futures market. So, the bulls will have the momentum early. Don’t get caught chasing, because the Russia news is not final and it does nothing to address the main overhang, Fed reaction to inflation (and inflation impacts on corporate profit). More immediately, it also does not change the fact we’ve been seeing a lot of intraday volatility/swings. So, stay nimble and/or hedged to volatility, and remember we have some potential support (at the bottom of a dreaded h pattern) not far below.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened dead flat on Friday.  However, QQQ immediately headed South and by late morning the large-cap indices followed.  There was no recovery as stocks closed near their lows in all 3 major indices.  The proximate cause of this bad day was the word that the Fed is holding an emergency meeting to talk about rates today.  That and increased fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This move left us with big, ugly black candles in all 3 major indices that broke down below the February lows and seem on their way back to challenge the January lows.  On the day, SPY lost 1.97%, DIA lost 1.49%, and QQQ lost 3.17%.  The VXX rose over 13.5% to 23.24 and T2122 fell but remains in the mid-range at 33.16.  10-year bond yields fell back to 1.918%, but Oil (on the Russian invasion fear) was the big mover, spiking almost 4.5% to $93.90/barrel.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Both Bloomberg and CNN reported Friday that traders (funds) are now keeping a close eye on “2yr vs 10yr Bond Yields.”  Last year the Fed produced research that found that every recession (at least since 1955 which was the study timeframe) was preceded by an inversion of the 2yr and 10yr bond yields.  (Logically, locking up money for 10 years should deliver higher returns than locking it up for 2 years.  An inversion is when the yield on a 2yr bond goes above the yield on a 10yr bond.)  This indicator has preceded every recession and only produced one false-positive.  As of Friday, the 2yr yield is at 1.487% while as mentioned above, the 10yr is at 1.918%.  However, the 2yr yield is up 110% on the year and the 10yr yield is up only 27% during the same time.  As this gap narrows and we approach inversion, expect the big money to be fleeing cyclicals and moving into recession plays.

So far this morning, AB, ARES, BRKR, IAA, MGA, COOP, SLVM, UA, UAA, and NWL have all reported beats on So far this morning, THS and some Japanese ADRs (TKOMY, JAPAY, KNBWY, STBFY) have reported a beat on both lines.  However, both KELYA and KELYB reported massive beats (more than double expected) earnings, while also coming up significantly short on revenue.  GTX reported in a similar way, beating (but not double) on earnings, but also missed slightly on revenue. 

Overnight, the Asian markets are nearly red across the board.  Only Australia (+0.37%) and Malaysia (+0.31%) managed to stay green.  Meanwhile, India (-3.06%), Japan (-2.23%), and Taiwan (-1.71%) led the way lower.  In Europe, we do see all red as of mid-day on Russian Invasion fears.  The FTSE (-2.00%) is “leading” continent by holding up relatively well, but the DAX (-3.26%) and CAC (-3.49%) are more typical in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down open.  The DIA implies a -0.79% open, the SPY is implying a -0.92% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.18% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly relative to Friday and Oil (WTI) is off a quarter of a percent in early trading.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday is any announcement or decision that comes from the emergency Fed Rate Meeting today.   It is unclear if Fed Member Bullard will keep his 11 am speaking engagement, given the emergency Fed meeting.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include GTX, KELYA, and THS.  Then after the close, AAP, ANET, CAR, BKD, CLR, HE, NTWK, PRI, and SCI report.

Russia did not invade Ukraine this weekend (as many had feared), but the brinksmanship remains underway with serious jitters (especially in Western Europe, like Germany, where the country is dependent on Russian Natural Gas). That and the emergency rate meeting by the Fed are sure to dominate the headlines and chatter among traders today. So, fear will likely be the driver early. And that forecast of mood (fear) is also what we are seeing in premarket prices this morning. So, stay nimble and/or hedged to volatility, and remember we have some potential support (at the bottom of a dreaded h pattern) not far below.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely do not need to trade early. Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service