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Commodities Down Again, But Less

June 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

Jobless Claims were unexpectedly high before the open and markets were a little manic on Thursday. The SPY waffled sideways all day, while the QQQ surged from open to close, and the DIA drifted lower all day. This left both large-cap indices in indecisive candles with the SPY printing a Doji that did not break through resistance and the DIA printing a Spinning Top, which may have found support. However, the QQQ printed a big white candle that closed at another all-time high. On the day, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ gained 1.27%. The VXX fell to 31.88 and T2122 dropped down just above the edge of the oversold territory at 21.13. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.514% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 1.5% to $71.03/barrel.

As mentioned yesterday, the Chinese have begun flooding markets with their metals stockpiles in an effort to combat commodity inflation. That move, plus a stronger dollar, hammered metal prices on the day as shown by Copper (-4.83%), Silver (-6.52%), and Gold (-4.72%). However, the good news on the inflation front wasn’t limited to metals. Soybean (-8.5%) have fallen 20% since May while Corn, Wheat, Sugar, and even Lumber (-9%) also fell sharply. CNBC’s Jim Cramer went so far as to say that “commodity inflation is pretty much over” (not that his opinion is worth more than anybody else’s). Still, on the other side of inflation news, related to Fed action, mortgage rates shot higher Thursday to an average of 3.25% (30-year fixed), up half a percent from February levels.

Related to corporate taxes, Ireland has said “they want a compromise” and will fight against the Global 15% Minimum tax plan that has already been agreed by the G-7 and discussed by the G-20. Essentially, the Irish Finance Minister Donohoe said that undercutting other country’s tax rates in order to get multi-nationals to hide/park their profits in Ireland is legitimate market competition. As such, his country intends to fight hard at the OECD with the help of AAPL, GOOG, and others companies who currently stash their profits in Ireland.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,377,592 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,440. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 12,697 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 316 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020. BAC joined the parade of Wall Street Banks that are demanding workers return to the office.

Globally, the numbers rose to 178,264,362 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,859,365 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 366,809 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,447 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Malaysia (+1.16%), Hong Kong (+0.85%), and Shenzhen (+0.77%) led the gainers. The losses were moderate, if wider-spread, but only Indonesia (-1.01%) showed a significant loss. In Europe, markets lean heavily to the red side so far today. The FTSE (-1.17%), DAX (-0.95%), and CAC (-0.62%) are typical of the spread as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.35% open, the SPY implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implying a dead flat open.

There is no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

Interest rates and commodity prices continued lower overnight, with some notable exceptions. However, the fall was less than Thursday, even if the trend continues. What is unknown is whether this is just a reaction to China going all-in to fight inflation, whether the market believes the Fed, or maybe something unknown is at work. All we can really say is that Thursday was a reflation trade (tech up, value down) and it seems to be setting up for something similar early today.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t assume trend, support, or resistance are always going to hold. Still, the odds favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. Just keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Fed Stays Course But May Raise in 18mo

June 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets ground sideways in a nothing burger until the Fed news at 2 pm. From there, we saw a knee-jerk dive to the downside, followed by a sharp whiplash rally at 3pm that ended up fading again the last 15 minutes of the day. This left us with wicks on the downside and black bodies on the candles of the 3 major indices. However, it is fair to say the bears were more-or-less in control Wednesday. On the day, SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.77%, and QQQ lost 0.37%. The VXX rose to 32.07 and T2122 fell to 41.85. 10-year bond yields rose significantly to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $71.66/barrel.

The big news for the day was the Fed data points and words. While the Fed left rates unchanged (near zero) and continues to say there will be no rate hikes the rest of this year or next, the new “dot-plot” forecasts 2 rate hikes during 2023. However, Chair Powell told reporters that the dot-plot “needs to be taken with a big grain of salt.” In other words, he warned against taking the projection of two rate hikes in 2023 wasn’t an indication that the Fed would definitely raise rates then. Powell also told reporters that the FOMC has not made any decisions about when to start tapering their bond-buying, which many had suspected would be announced at this meeting.

In global news that impacts trading, Chinese efforts to curb commodity prices kicked into overdrive. All Chinese state-owned companies were ordered to report their futures positions (to curb speculation) and the state-owned stockpiles of metals have also started to be released to the Chinese markets. This can’t help but to have a global impact since China is one of the importers of every commodity. In an unrelated story, early today there was another major internet outage (the second in 10 days), This one, reportedly caused by a failure in the network of AKAM, took out airline websites (LUV, UAL, ULCC), a broad number of Australian Banks, the Hong Kong stock exchange, and major financial platforms like Vanguard, E-Trade, and ADP briefly.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,365,985 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,150. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,360 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 344 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). In an interesting move, the CEO of MS told all employees they must return to the office by September. This lies in contrast to other companies that have decided some jobs and some work by most positions can be performed remotely even after restrictions are all lifted.

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,878,272 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,850,411 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 374,121 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,665 new deaths per day. The WHO reported Wednesday that most of the world continues to see a decrease in new cases and deaths. However, just the opposite is true in Africa where the agency said cases rose 44% and fatalities rose 20% this week alone.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest moves. Japan (-0.93%) was by far the biggest loser with Shenzhen (+1.23%) by far the biggest gainer. However, the bulk of the region moved well less than half a percent and mostly to the downside. In Europe, with the exception of Greece (+0.21%), the entire continent is trading modestly lower at this point in the day. The FTSE (-0.40%), CAC (-0.02%) and DAX (unchanged) are typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.14% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.35% open.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and Treasury Sec. Yellen testifies at 10 am. Major earnings reports on the day include CMC, JBL, and KR before the open. Then after the close ADBE reports.

The market is still digesting and figuring out what to do with the Fed news from yesterday. The FOMC continues to say they are “staying the course” and no changes are foreseen for the next 18 months. They did forecast interest rates rising a couple of times in 2023, but Chair Powell immediately went out of his way to say, in effect, “that’s not a given, it may not happen.” So, the market sees inflation now that the Fed says will lessen in early 2022, a booming economy that isn’t quite as hot as some would like, and a Fed that says “Don’t worry, we got this.” …What is a trader to do?

As always, follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold. All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. Keep moving your stops, locking in profits, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Markets and Volatility On Pause for Fed

June 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Following a PPI that came in showing 6.6% annual inflation (the highest since annual records were started in 2010, but still better-than-expected), May Retail Sales coming in lower than expected, and a NY Empire Mfg. Index that came in worse than expected, markets opened flat Tuesday. Then after a small selloff early, they ground sideways the rest of the day. Only a late-day mini-rally took us out up off the lows. This left the SPY and DIA in black Hammer-type candles and the QQQ as a Bearish Harami. Still, both the SPY and QQQ closed at the second-highest close of all time (second to Monday only). On the day, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA lost 0.24%, and QQQ lost 0.65%. The VXX gained 2% to 31.77 and T2122 rose, but remains in the mid-range at 70.97. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $72.29/barrel.

In stock news after hours, LUV canceled 500 flights (15% of schedule) after the second straight day of computer system problems Tuesday. ORCL beat on both the top and bottom lines, but guided forward at a lower-than-expected level. The CFO of C also followed JPM’s suite from a day ago, telling a conference that they now expect a larger-than-anticipated drop (30% drop versus a year ago) in trading income this quarter. He also said that consumers have paid down loan balances and loan income will also fall. As a result, he expects revenue to drop roughly 15% year-on-year in Q2. Finally, RCL has postponed its first sailing since the pandemic as 8 crew members tested positive during cruise prep. So, all of the crew is now quarantined for 14 days and the cruise that had been scheduled to depart July 3 will sail on July 31.

Bloomberg is reporting a consensus view essentially identical to CNBC reported yesterday on the Fed’s words and actions for today. It is widely expected they will take no policy actions. However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about making a change to its policy bond-buying soon. The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also expected to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023. All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said to date. In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon. Tone will be the key as markets look to parse words.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,352,185 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,717. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,577 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 3356 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,470,620 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,839,931 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 377,371 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,770 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Shenzhen (-2.57%) and Shanghai (-1.07%) led the region lower as Chinese May Retail Sales missed expectations by 1.25%. (Still, they had 12.4% sales growth.) In Europe, markets a re mixed on flat trading as the world waits on the Fed. The FTSE (-0.02%) is flat while the DAX (-0.13%) is down slightly and the CAC (+0.09%) is up slightly. The rest of the continent is in a similar situation on slightly larger moves. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointed to a mixed, flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.15% open at this point.

Wednesday is a heavy day for major economic news, headlined by the Fed. The news includes May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, May Import/Export Price Indices (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and then Fed Interest Rate Projections (short and long-term), Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement (all at 2 pm), and the Fed Press Conference (2:30 pm). The only major earnings report on the day is LEN after the close.

Today is likely a “wait and see” day until 2 pm. Housing data early is not likely to push the market “off the fence” either way while we wait for Chair Powell and hope he can hit “the perfect note” in his statement. With that said, expect a dull day at least until the Fed announcements. Then expect an over-reaction in one direction to be followed by a whiplash back the other direction shortly after. (That is the typical Fed day pattern.) Finally, it also usually happens that there is a bit of a rethink again overnight the night following the Fed statements. So, after 2 pm, it is likely to be a volatile period into Thursday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EMR, SAND, TXN, BR, FB, QD, BNGO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Market Waiting on Data or Fed Direction

June 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat and then the large-caps sold off all morning, before trading sideways in a tight range most of the afternoon. However, a rally the last hour of the day took stocks out very near their highs. On the other hand, the QQQ sold off early, but started a rally about 10am that lasted the rest of the day. This gave us a strong white candle and new all-time high close in the QQQ and the SPY. Both the DIA and SPY printed Hammer-type candles. On the day, SPY gained 0.23%, QQQ gained 0.96%, and DIA lost 0.24%. The VXX gained a percent to 312.12 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 55.86. 10-year bond yields rose t o 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to $71.03/barrel.

During the afternoon Monday, CEO Jamie Dimon said JPM has been “effectively stockpiling cash” rather than buying bonds or other assets. He warned that the Covid-era trading boom is coming to an end, expecting less in trading revenue this Q2 as compared to a year ago. He also said JPM disagrees with the Fed and feels “there is a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory.” As a result, Dimon says the bank has been hoarding cash and he expects the net interest income for the year to be down from $55 billion to $52.5 billion.

CNBC is reporting a consensus view on the Fed’s words and actions on Wednesday. It is widely expected they will take no policy actions. However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about changing its policy on bond-buying. The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also likely to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023. All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said in the past. In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,086,088 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,829,038 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,190 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,899 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. New Zealand (+1.07%), Japan (+0.96%), Taiwan (+0.92%) and Australia (+0.92%) paced gainers. Meanwhile, Shanghai (-0.92%), Shenzhen (-0.86%), and Hong Kong (-0.71%) led the losses. In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean green so far today. The DAX (+0.55%), and CAC (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the continent, with Norway (-1.01%) a notable exception. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying an unchanged open, the SPY implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open. It seems markets are waiting on this morning’s data or perhaps even on more insight from the Fed.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes May PPI, May Retail Sales, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), May Industrial Production (9:15 am), Apr Business Inventories and Apr Retail Sales (both at 10 am). The only major earnings reports on the day are after the close when HRB, LZB, and ORCL report.

Premarket seems to suggest that traders are waiting on more data. The inflation, sales, and manufacturing information may give us just such a push one way or the other. Just keep in mind that we sit at all-time highs, the QQQ is a little extended from its T-line, and the DIA can’t get going (is diverging from the other major indices). In short, this means markets are undecided, rotating, or at least maybe more volatile.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LLNW, LAZR, BLNK, AMAT, MP, QCOM, TDOC, SAND. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

QQQ Leading Again in Monday Premarket

June 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started Friday off blah and just waffled sideways the rest of the day. A last-minute rally left the QQQ and SPY near their highs for the day (SPY closing at another all-time high close). However, the SPY closed as a Doji and the DIA as a Spinning Top, showing the indecisiveness. On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.26%. The VXX fell almost 3% to 30.82 and T2122 shot back up into overbought territory at 89.57. 10-year bond yields was basically flat at 1.454% and Oil (WTI) rose three-fourths of a percent to $70.80/barrel.

During the afternoon Friday, a bipartisan panel of House Members agreed on and introduced 5 bills that would overhaul the 100-year-old antitrust laws in the US. The group found that AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and FB all hold monopoly power and the 5 bills would force those companies to exit certain businesses as well as impact the approval hurdles for companies that wish to merge or acquire other companies. While a huge step, and significant, these bills still face a LONG and rough road to becoming law. The full Judiciary Committee as well as the full House and then the full Senate would need to pass the legislation and then President Biden would need to sign. In the meantime, huge lobbying efforts and donations from those richest of companies will be working against the bills. However, smaller companies like SPOT, ROKU, and those that sell through the AAPL and GOOG stores support the changes.

Sunday, Elon Musk said that TSLA would again begin accepting bitcoin in payment for its cars. His tweet (what else would we expect) said “When there’s confirmation about 50% of clean energy usage by miners, TSLA will resume Bitcoin transactions.” In other stock news, global shipping delays have gotten so bad that HD has now leased its own cargo ship (not containers, a whole ship) to begin operations in July. This will free them from spot market capacity and rate fluctuations at the cost of large fixed costs. Each ship will have about 10,000 or so TEU (20 ft Equiv. Units) of capacity, which is about 5,000 of the 40-ft. cargo containers. RDS.A is also considering the sale of its stake in the largest US oil field, the Permian Basin (mostly in TX). The sale could generate up to $10 billion. Then early today QCOM offered to buy at least a piece of Arm (computer cpu maker) if Softbank listed the company rather than sell it to NVDA. This comes as regulators appear to be leaning toward blocking the purchase of Arm by NVDA. Finally, RIDE was down hard in premarket as their CEO and CFO have resigned.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,275,783 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 614,007. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,516 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 383 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). The first US cruise ship to resume operation had an ominous reopening. After the 7-day cruise in the Caribbean, 2 of the 500 passengers tested positive.

Globally, the numbers rose to 176,767,238 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,820,602 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,431 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 9,063 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but lean slightly green. Japan (+0.74%) leads gainers while Shenzhen (-0.62%) and Shanghai (-0.58%) pace the losses. However, the vast majority of Asian exchanges made slight moves either direct, with more on the green side. In Europe, equities are green across the board. The FTSE (+0.33%) leads the major exchanges with the DAX and CAC both at +0.17% so far this morning. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to very slightly green open. The DIA is implying a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying +0.06% open, and the QQQ is implying a small gap higher of +0.32% at this hour.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

It looks like the bulls are continuing a push in the high-tech names as the QQQ is testing all-time highs in the premarket. However, both large-cap indices are much more muted and still struggling with resistance (the SPY to pull away after breaking through and the DIA to get back to a retest). In the commodity space, dollar strength is going to give a headwind as overnight trading saw Gold down 1.2%, Wheat down 2.7%, but Oil is up 0.60%. Again, folks are looking ahead to the Fed meeting this week (where many are expecting at least more hawkish language, if not actual policy changes).

Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold…they are all breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Anti-Rotation At Play in Divergence?

June 11, 2021 by Ed Carter

Divergence was the word of the day on Thursday following a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print for May. The large caps gapped up, while the QQQ and IWM both opened flat. However, the SPY vacillated all day while the DIA sold back off toward the prior close, the IWM sold off all day and the QQQ rallied in the morning and traded dead flat all afternoon. This left the QQQ as a big beautiful white breakout candle, the SPY as an indecisive Spinning Top still sitting on the all-time high resistance, and the DIA as an ugly black high-wick candle that might still have held the uptrend. IWM was also an ugly black candle that held trend. On the day, SPY gained 0.48% (to a new all-time high close by fractions), DIA “gained” 0.09%, QQQ gained 1.04%, and IWM lost 0.83%. This may even be a sign of the undoing of recent rotation into value names and back into tech high-flyers. Anti-rotation if you will. AMZN is a prime example from Thursday, The VXX fell almost 6% to 31.70 and T2122 fell further into the midrange at 67.21. 10-year bond yields fell significantly (despite the hot 4.9% CPI) to 1.44% and Oil (WTI) rose a quarter percent to $70.13/barrel.

During the afternoon Thursday, the Fed release statistics that showed US Household Net Worth rose to almost $137 trillion at the end of Q1 (fueled in large part by stock market and real estate price increases). This was a 3.8% increase since the end of 2020. During the same period, Household Debt grew 6.5% (fastest growth since 2006), Government Debt grew 6.5% (down from 10.8% the prior quarter), and Business Debt grew at 4.4% (an increase over Q4 2020).

After a rough week, meme stocks are seeing a small (relatively speaking for meme stocks) relief rally. GME is up 6%, CLOV is up 6%, AMC is up 6.4% in premarket trading. For context, all of these stock are still up thousands of percent on the year, even after being more than 50% off the highs of the week.

Globally, the numbers rose to 175,677,082 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,790,320 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 385,051 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,127 new deaths per day. In China, researchers have found a “batch” on new coronaviruses that are similar, but distinct from Covid-19. One of them was genetically very close to the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again and once again in modest trading. South Korea (+0.77%) and Thailand (+0.69%) led gainers while Shenzhen (-0.62%) and Shanghai (-0.58%) paced the loses. However, in Europe, markets are green across the board so far Friday. The FTSE is up 0.63%, the DAX up 0.55%, and the CAC up 0.78%. This comes as DB reported that they expect “peak inflation” in the UK will be “close to 3%.” As of 7:30 am, US Futures are tepidly green. The DIA is implying a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.18% open. It is worth noting that, like Thursday, 10-year bond yields are down again in premarket to 1.443%.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). There are no major earnings reports on the day.

Thursday, markets seemed to emphatically say that they believe the Fed about inflation being transitory and no reason for quick policy changes. At least the 10-year bond is following through in the same direction early today. With no news (unless you count a potential infrastructure spending deal between 10 moderate Senators, that has no been fleshed out yet) to drive action, it is quite possible we see drift today ahead of a summer weekend. At least at this point, it looks like the QQQ and SPY are trying to follow-up gains from yesterday, while the DIA is trying to reverse an ugly move from Thursday.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

May CPI Print Will Call The Tune Early

June 10, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets turned in a mostly dull day Wednesday as traders seem to be waiting on the Premarket CPI data today. However, an afternoon selloff took markets out on the lows and created ugly black candles in all 3 major indices. The DIA printed a Bearish Doji Continuation pattern to boot. On the day SPY lost 0.15%, DIA lost 0.45%, and QQQ gained 0.02%. The VXX rose over 1.5% to 33.68 and T2122 fell just outside the edge of the overbought territory to 79.37. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.492% in spite of near-unanimous expectation of rising inflation and Oil (WWTI) fell half a percent to $69.75/barrel.

Wednesday was a massive profit-taking day for the meme stocks. AMC fell over 10%, CLOV was down 23%, WEN was down almost 13%, while GME was flat. Part of GME’s ability to hold was the announcement that two AMZN execs have been hired as GME’s CEO and CFO. GME also reported 25% sales growth when it reported after-hours. However, the company also declined to provide an outlook and report also included a plan to sell 5 million more shares. GME fell 12% in after-hours on that earnings report.

Global banking regulators (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) are proposing “conservative” rules related to Bitcoin. Under the plan, banks would need to hold cash equal to their cryptocurrency holdings as part of their capital reserves. This is strict compared to the “fractional reserves” required for other assets such as loans, options, or other leveraged derivatives. In essence, this is a case of global banking authorities giving the governments of the world cover to use the banks of their countries to partially control cryptocurrency markets. Oddly enough, bitcoin is up overnight on this news, now just under $38,000.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,264,727 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 613,494. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 14,019 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 409 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

The CDC reported that less than half of the JNJ vaccine doses sent to states have been administered. This compares to PFE and MRNA, which have seen more than 83% of the doses administered and delivered a much larger number of doses to boot. The JNJ news is a concern because many of the JNJ doses will expire by month-end. However, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told reporters Wednesday that the FDA is considering extending the expiration date of the JNJ vaccines to avoid wasting those doses.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green with Shenzhen (+1.19%) and Taiwan (+1.14%) leading gainers. In Europe, stocks are mixed and muted as traders wait on the US inflation reading for May. The FTSE (+0.26%) and DAX (+0.04%) are green while the CAC (-0.21%) is in the red as of mid-morning. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a modest, mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.16% open, the SPY implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.22% slight gap down an hour in front of the CPI print.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes May CPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), the WASDE Report (World Ag Forecasts, at noon), and May Fed Budget Balance (2 pm). The only major earnings reports on the day are SIG before the open and CHWY and PLAY after the close.

All eyes are on the May CPI print at 8:30, which is a bit odd since there is a very large consensus that the number will come in showing much higher inflation than April, yet nobody expects it to impact Fed actions in the short-term. Personally, I expect some brief volatility in markets and then a return to normal, no matter what the print. So, if you are not already hedged, there is nothing to do before the open. Even then, I might wait a bit before overreacting the first minutes of the market. Then again, that’s just me.

With the SPY fighting resistance and the DIA and QQQ fighting to hold trend, divergence and volatility are likely. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles. Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold…they are all breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Traders Look For Another Inflation Cue

June 9, 2021 by Ed Carter

Indecision reigned Tuesday as markets diverged in a wavering sideways pattern all day. This left us with a black Spinning Top in the QQQ, Potential Hanging Man in the SPY, and Doji type in the DIA. On the day, the SPY gained 0.03%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.05%. However, the small-caps continued their run higher as the IWM gained 1.06%. The VXX gained a little over a percent to 33.18 and T2122 climbed higher into the overbought territory at 93.12. 10-year bond yields fell on better-than-expected Trade Deficit data to 1.531% and Oil (WTI) rose a.45% to $70.24/barrel.

Meme stock climbed back on the galloping horse Tuesday as put in a 15% range, but ended flat. However, the Reddit eye had moved to CLOVW (Warrants) which shot 161% higher on the day. WEN also they were pitched on the Reddit WallStreetBets forum, trading in 16% range after a 19% gap higher and closing up 26% on the day. In a related story, social media darling Bitcoin fell to $32,000 overnight after trading at $39,000 a week ago and trading at $37,000 on Monday.

As traders watch inflation for clues as to Fed action, we saw contradicting signals Tuesday. Lumber futures fell 5% with a top industry executive telling CNBC he expects more price relief over the next 6-12 months. However, CMG also raised their prices 4%, stating that the increase was to offset wage inflation. For what it is worth, the Dow Jones Economist Survey consensus is that we see a 4.7% annualized CPI for May, up from 4.2% in April. In addition, 10-year bond yields are down in premarket trading. However, this is all prelude to the Thursday morning May CPI and next week’s May PPI data.

As expected, the Senate passed a bipartisan $250 billion technology and manufacturing bill aimed at better competing with China. The bill will pay for some research, but largely will go for subsidies to chip and robot makers which set up manufacturing facilities in the US, as well as an overhaul of the National Science Foundation. Companies that can expect to see a part of that $52 billion in chipmaker subsidies include TSM, INTC, AMAT, MU, and NVDA. In unrelated news, a bipartisan group of Congressmen have proposed an $878 billion infrastructure bill compromise now that White House – GOP Senatorial negotiations have ended.

Related to the virus, globally, the numbers rose to 174,802,246 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,764,250 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 400,740 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling but remains at 9,617 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side in modest trading after Chinese Producer Prices surged the most they had since 2008 (up 9% in May). South Korea (-0.97%), India (-0.67%), and Taiwan (-0.64%) paced the losses. Thailand (+0.83%) and Indonesia (+0.80%) led gainers. In Europe, markets are also mixed so far this Wednesday. Oddly, the 3 major exchanges are all on the red side with the FTSE (-0.58%) and DAX (-0.55%) pacing the losses and CAC (-0.06%) flat. The rest of the continent is mixed, but leans green. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are flat with the DIA implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open and the QQQ implying a +0.30% open.

The only major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BF.A, BF.B, CPB, and UNFI before the open. Then, after the close, GME, GEF, and RH report.

Large-caps seem to be struggling with resistance while the tech-heavy QQQ try to not fall back down retest their breakout as support. Yet the biggest moves are now coming from the IWM, where we may see signs of a small rotation into those small-cap names. Divergence is not that uncommon, but it is not the norm. It can be a sign of a change in market character (preceding a turn). However, we have to be careful not to predict the future…just be aware and prepared to act should market conditions change.

Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence. Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold…they will be breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ATER, SSYS, XELA, SNX, OTRK, EBON, JMIA, TDOC, PLBY, STLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Divergence and Morning Internet Outage

June 8, 2021 by Ed Carter

The market opened just South of flat on Monday. After a morning selloff, markets ground sideways most of the day in the large-caps with the SPY and QQQ putting in a small rally the last hour. This left a Doji-Harami in the SPY, a Bearish Engulfing in the DIA and a white candle that broke out of the last week’s range in the QQQ. However, the big divergence was with small-caps (IWM) that rallied most of the day, closing not far from the highs and gaining 1.34%. Meanwhile, on the day the SPY lost 0.08%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ gained 0.30%. The VXX was down almost 2% to 32.77 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 84.59. 10-year bond yields fell a bit more to 1.569% and Oil (WTI) was down six-tenths of a percent to $69.20/barrel.

During the day, AAPL announced new operating systems for the Mac, iPad, iPhone, and Apple Watch. Meanwhile GOOG agreed to a $268 million settlement with the EU over antitrust activities. KHC also announced they have begun buying back up to $2.8 billion of their own debt (bonds) with offers that expire June 11. On the other end of the debt scale, MSTR announced that it is selling bonds (borrowing) later in the week in order to fund the purchase of $400 million more of Bitcoin. In addition, after a 9.5% gap up and a 16% additional range, AMC continued its Reddit-fueled climb, closing up 14.8%. However, the big news of Monday was BIIB, which surged 60% before pulling back to close up 38% on the FDA approval of their Alzheimer’s Disease drug.

Commerce Sec. Raimondo told CNBC that the global semiconductor chip shortage will be a daily challenge for the US economy (including the Auto, computer, and consumer goods industries) for the next year. She noted the Senate is close to approving $52 billion in subsidies for chip manufacturers. However, her outlook is far more optimistic than semiconductor industry analysts that expect the shortages to last well into 2023, based on the long time it takes for manufacturers like TSM, INTC, QCOM, AVGO, MU, NVDA, AMAT, HXSCL, and Samsung to bring additional semiconductor capacity online. (Most capacity has long since been booked through at least 2022 at this point.)

There was a major global internet outage reported early today as FSLY (cloud services provider) went down. This impacted a large chunk of the internet traffic and impacted AMZN, TGT, CNN, Bloomberg, Reddit, Hulu, SPOT, and even the UK government were offline. FSLY says the problem is now fixed, but many sites remain out as of 7 am.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,227,237 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 612,701. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 14,317 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 400 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). CRM CEO Benioff said Monday that he expects at least half of the company’s employees to work from home after the pandemic. (This is up from 20% of the employees that worked from home in 2019.) Globally, the numbers rose to 174,429,426 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,753,525 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 412,986 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 9,670 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Indonesia (-1.16%) and Shenzhen (-0.98%) paced the losses while Malaysia (+0.60%) was the only exchange to remain appreciably green. In Europe, markets are mixed but lean toward the green side at this point in the day. The FTSE (+0.25%) and CAC (+0.21%) are modestly green with the DAX (+0.05%) flat as of mid-morning. At 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a mixed and modest open. The QQQ is implying a gap up of 0.39%, but the DIA is implying a -0.06% open and the SPY is implying a +0.09% open at this point.

Major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to April Trade Balance (8:30 am) and April JOLTS /Job Openings (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ASO, MOMO, NAV, and THO before the open. Then, after the close, ABM, BEST, and CASY report.

Markets seem to be looking to continue the divergence seen Monday. The SPY appears to be stuck at all-time high resistance, while the DIA looks to have failed its latest test of that all-time high resistance, and yet the QQQ and IWM appear to be trying to follow-through Monday’s breakout of their recent ranges. With no huge news and no big earnings to push markets, we may see the chop and volatility resume. However, keep an eye on that divergence which might, just possibly, signal a rotation back into the high-flying tech sector that led the rally earlier this year.

Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPCE, JMIA, PLTR, MSFT, TDOC, FB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Weekend News Lead by Yellen Deal – Talk

June 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped-up Friday as the May Payroll numbers seemed to hit the sweet spot. After that, stocks did a very slow, but steady climb into the last few minutes of the day. This left us with strong white candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.54%, and QQQ gained 1.70%. The VXX fell over 5% to 33.39 and T2122 climbed back into the overbought territory at 87.62. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.557% and Oil (WTI) rose eight-tenths of a percent to $69.37/barrel.

The big weekend news was the G-7 (US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK) agreeing to back a proposal for corporations to pay a minimum of “at least 15%” tax rate. In addition, the agreement included rules forcing companies with at least a 10% profit margin to pay taxes on at least 20% of the profits earned, in the country where the sale was made. This is a step toward preventing corporate shell games to avoid taxes by moving profits to low-tax haven countries. While these are major steps in the negotiations around digital economy taxation, these measures are still a long way from implementation, perhaps years. Getting sign-off by the G-20 (which includes China, India, Brazil, and Russia among others) is the next step. Key opponents of such digital tax rules include AAPL, GOOG, FB, etc. as well as countries whose business model is “low tax rates to draw in major companies.”

Sunday, Treasury Sec. Yellen told Bloomberg that the US has been fighting inflation and interest rates that are “too low” for a decade. So, she said that slightly higher interest rates would be a good thing, not a bad thing. She (former Fed Chair) said this is also the Fed’s point of view. So, she concluded that President Biden’s $4 trillion spending proposals (which would increase spending $400 billion per year) would be a positive for the economy and society in general.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,210,782 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 612,366. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,185 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 375 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 1724,092,834 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,745,093 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 418,913 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 9,741 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on very modest moves. Singapore (+0.79%), New Zealand (+0.53%), and India (+0.52%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Malaysia (-0.76%), Hong Kong (-0.45%), and Taiwan (-0.37%) paced the losers. In Europe, markets are mostly green on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.26%), DAX (+0.15%), and CAC (+0.31%) are typical of most of the continent’s exchanges. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.13% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no major earnings reports on the day. The only major earnings reports on the day come after the closing bell when MRVL, REVG, SFIX, and MTN report

It seems that markets want to start the week off slow at the open Monday as the bulls chase the record highs, just points away. A lower than expected May Payrolls number Friday helped alleviate inflation fears, but only time will tell if that feeds over into Monday trading. The global tax news, while impactful on major multi-national tax dodgers, is still months or years away. So that proves Yellen’s chops on deal-making, but should not move markets in the short-term. So, just remember we are at the all-time highs, an area that has proved to be resistant before. However, the mid-term and short-term trends are bullish.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching