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Is Inflation or Earnings More Important

July 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped slightly lower Tuesday on a hotter than expected June CPI number. However, they rallied from there to new highs before giving back the gains in the afternoon and closing near the lows. This left us with Shooting Star-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.29%, and QQQ was dead flat. The VXX gained over a percent to 29.59 and T2122 fell all the way back to just inside the oversold territory at 19.30. 10-year bond yields spiked sharply to 1.42% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.6% to $75.30/barrel.

As mentioned, the Consumer Inflation numbers jumped the most in years. However, markets reacted very mildly to the news. Among the biggest movers by category, Car and Truck rental prices skyrocketed 88% year-on-year while gasoline and used cars both jumped 45% from a year ago.

This morning, weekly mortgage applications for new homes came in 8% above the prior week but were 29% lower than one year ago. However, refinancing applications spiked 20% on the week as buyers jumped on the recently falling interest rates.

In big bank news, after JPM’s blowout numbers Tuesday, this morning BAC missed expectations on revenue for Q2. BAC cited a drop in income due to lower interest rates over the quarter. However, the company did far exceed the earnings estimates of analysts ($1.03 actual vs $0.77 est.). On the other hand, C, WFC, BLK, and PNC all followed JPM’s lead in beating on both lines for the quarter…in some cases with blowout beats.

Overnight, Asian markets were red almost across the board. The only green came from Australia (+0.31%) and India (+0.26%). However, Shanghai (-1.07%), Shenzhen (-0.88%), and Hong Kong (-0.63%) were more representative of the region. Europe is following Asia’s lead so far today. While there are a few barely green exchanges, the FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.17%), and CAC (-0.22%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green, if mostly flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.02% open, the SPY implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.36% open. 10-year bond yields and the dollar are also mildly lower in premarket, which should help commodities.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to June PPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and Fed Chair Powell testifies at noon. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAC, BLK, C, DAL, INFY, PNC, and WFC. Then, after the close, there are no major reports.

The rest of the world seemingly reacted poorly to yesterday’s hot CPI reading in the US. However, US markets mostly ignored the news or maybe gave more weight to the blowout earnings reports yesterday. So far today, earnings news is mostly positive in front of the PPI number. In this setting, markets are showing signs of weakness. If we get some follow-through on the Shooting Star-type candles, don’t be surprised by at least a short-term pullback. Markets are still sitting at all-time highs, look extended, and with the higher inflation numbers, we can expect more talk of Fed tapering. However, Bloomberg reported Fed Vice Chair Clarida told them the Fed would not have the new information they value most to adjust posture until year-end.

The odds still favor sticking with the trend in terms of overall posture. And the long and mid-term trends remain bullish. Focus on your open positions first, don’t chase new ones, and remain nimble. Stick to your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. It is all about your decisions. So act mindfully and with intention…don’t just react emotionally. Consistency remains the key to long-term success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLF, QCOM, BX, VALE, WMT, TZA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Earnings Start As JNJ and BA Take Unrelated Hits

July 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

Monday saw a mixed but modest open followed by some trending the first hour. After that, the rest of the day was a sideways grind in a narrow range that closed near the highs. This left us with strong white candles in both of the large-cap indices and a Doji in the QQQ. All 3 indices closed at yet another new all-time high close. On the day, SPY gained 0.37%, DIA gained 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.39%. The VXX lost two-thirds of a percent to 29.23 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 85.92. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.37% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $74.14/barrel.

During the day, the NY Fed released its June consumer survey. The survey found the median expectation of inflation for the next 12 months had jumped to 4.8%, the highest reading in the history of the survey. The survey also found consumers expect that unemployment will fall over the same time. Given this survey’s results, June CPI numbers are expected to come in hot this morning.

Also during the day, TSLA CEO Elon Musk testified in a shareholder lawsuit over the company’s purchase of SolarCity. The suit alleges the purchase amounted to a bailout that came at the expense of TSLA shareholders. Other TSLA board members had already settled their portion of the liability for $60 million. However, Musk refused. Early in his testimony Musk said he did not see a financial gain from the purchase, but it was part of his 2006 “master plan.”

Late in the day, the FDA announced a new warning will be added to the JNJ covid vaccine. The warning will inform the public that the vaccine has been linked to a rare, but serious, autoimmune disorder. However, regulators emphasized that the risk is tiny (100 cases found out of 12.8 million doses administered). JNJ stock fell sharply intraday on the news, but still ended flat on the day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly strongly green. Japan (+2.25%) and Shenzhen (+2.14%) were major outliers to the upside mixed. Nonetheless, the region was green with Taiwan (+0.87%), South Korea (+0.89%), and Australia (+0.83%) being typical. In Europe, we see a divergence. The 3 major bourses are all red. However, the entire rest of the continent is green at this point in the day. The FTSE (-0.61%), DAX (-0.10%), and CAC (-0.33%) all seem to be waiting on a cue from the US. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed. The DIA is implying a -0.43% open, the SPY implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open.

Major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to June CPI (8:30 am), Jun Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and two Fed speakers (Bostic at noon and Bostic at 2:30). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CAG, FAST, FRC, GS, JPM, and PEP before the open. Then, after the close, AMX reports.

Early this morning, both GS and JPM posted strong beats for Q2. GS reported especially strong numbers based on banking around a very strong IPO market. BA also halted deliveries of its “787 Dreamliner” jets again when another flaw was found. This is the second halt to deliveries of the wide-body plane in the last year, with the previous stoppage lasting 5 months. Finally, France fined GOOG $593 million in a “news copyright” case where France found GOOG did not negotiate in good faith with the original publishers of news stories it reused.

Markets are still sitting at all-time highs, look extended, and at least the Nasdaq showed signs of indecision Monday. A little rest or even a small pullback should not be unexpected. However, the odds still favor sticking with the trend…and the trend remains strongly bullish. Focus on your open positions first, don’t chase new ones, and remain nimble. Keep following your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. “Your” is the key word. It is all about your decisions. So act mindfully and with intention…don’t just react emotionally. Consistency remains the key to long-term success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Antitrust, China Move, and Min Corp Tax

July 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

Friday opened with a gap higher followed by a morning rally and then a sideways grind in a tight range all afternoon. This left strong bullish candles that closed near the highs in all 3 major indices. As a result, all 3 major averages also closed at new all-time high closes. On the day, SPY gained 1.07%, DIA gained 1.26%, and QQQ gain 0.62%. The VXX fell almost 7% to 29.43 and T2122 jumped from deep in the oversold area to deep in the overbought territory at 92.04. 10-year bond yields spiked back to 1.361% and Oil rose 2.4% to $74.69/barrel. These moves were helped by a weaker dollar that aided most commodity prices.

During the day, President Biden signed a wide-ranging executive order aimed at cracking down on anti-trust activities. The 72 clauses included recommendations to Federal agencies as well as actual prohibitions. Among the major points was the reversal of the Trump-era “ending of net neutrality.” This means that the telco, cable, and ISP companies cannot throttle specific websites unless they pay for a fast lane. (The classic example is NFLX traffic cannot be slowed and the customer cannot be charged more for NFLX usage than any other content.) Another major item is the “Right to repair,” where companies like AAPL must now allow customers to have their devices repaired wherever they like (as opposed to AAPL requiring you to just purchase new or only get repairs from AAPL itself). Another clause will allow the importation of cheaper Canadian prescription drugs. Many of the aspects of this executive order are sure to be taken to court.

In some potentially ominous news out of China, the PBOC cut the size of reserves that Chinese Banks must hold in reserve on loans. This move will inject $154 billion into their economy and is intended to stimulate more lending (and thus economic activity). This is both a sign the Chinese recovery might not be as robust as most assumed and that the Chinese government is reacting quickly. Late last week, Bloomberg reported an economist poll saying Chinese growth had fallen from over 18% (Q1) to 8% (Q2). Obviously, a slowing recovery means lower earnings potential and less consumer spending. China led the way going into and coming out of the pandemic recession. So, as a read-through, this may indicate that the US Administration and Fed are right to be concerned about removing stimulus too soon.

G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads endorsed the global minimum corporate tax over the weekend. However, Sunday Treasury Sec. Yellen told reporters the mechanism to make it work may not be ready for Congressional approval until the Spring of 2022. She did say that she hoped to put the provisions into a budget reconciliation (which could be approved by a simple majority of Congress). The global minimum corporate tax initiative would also end unilateral taxes on digital services by individual countries (such as France and a few other European countries have imposed on major tech firms like FB, AAPL, and GOOG).

Major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the WASDE Report (noon) and the 10-year bond auction (1 pm). (The former being the USDA estimates on world Ag production.) There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. However, we should note that earnings season starts up again Tuesday.

Richard Branson (SPCE) beat his billionaire rivals into space during a short ride Sunday. (Although Jeff Bezos (AMZN) and others argue over whether the SPCE flight went high enough to be considered in space. Either way, the news looks to be goosing the SPCE stock (albeit with big volatility) in the premarket. With Earnings season kicking off Tuesday, do not be surprised if there is some movement in financials as traders make pre-report bets on the banks as well as the overall economy.

Markets sit at all-time highs and are extended according to many measures. So, a little rest or pullback should not be unexpected. The odds still favor sticking with the trend. Focus on your open positions first and don’t chase. Remain nimble or hedged. Keep following your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Consistency remains the key to long-term success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Antitrust Executive Order Coming

July 9, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday was wild ride with all three major indices gapping down 1.3%, grinding sideways until 11 am, and then rallying for a couple of hours before fading late in the day. Support seemed to hold in all 3, but this left large-body candles with wicks at both ends in all the indices. So, while the bulls refused to roll over, you’d have to say that on balance it was the bears that were in control. On the day, SPY lost 0.80%, DIA lost 0.73%, and QQQ lost 0.58%. The VXX gained 6.5% to 31.54 and T2122 dropped all the way down deep into the oversold territory at 7.93. 10-year bond yields fell yet again to 1.293% (which was actually up significantly from the 1.25% it hit in premarket) and Oil (WTI) rose 1.29% to $73.13 on a falling dollar.

The White House announced that President Biden will sign an executive order that cracks down on anti-competitive practices in big tech, labor, and other sectors. This order directs a dozen federal agencies on how to approach corporate consolidation and antitrust. There are 72 specific actions outlined in the order, but details are not yet available. What is known is that the White House is calling the changes “sweeping.”

PFE also made post-market news, saying that immunity provided by their vaccine has begun to wane and announcing they will seek FDA approval for clinical trials of a new Covid Booster Shot. The company also said it believes that immunity will require an additional booster 6-12mo. following completion of their 2-dose original regimen. The booster they have been developing specifically targets the highly contagious Delta variant and trials could start in August if approved. However, the CDC, FDA, and NIH commented that the waning of immunity has not yet been demonstrated and they will analyze the data as it comes in.

In banking news, yesterday WFC closed its “personal line of credit” business, angering thousands of customers. The reported reason is so that the bank can focus on credit card and personal loan lines of business. Meanwhile, overnight MS reported that there was a breach of customer data from one of the stock-plan businesses they operate. The company said they have already contacted the customers who were impacted.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side. Taiwan (-1.15%), South Korea (-1.07%), and Australia (-0.93%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are green across the board so far today. The region is seeing significant rebounds from Thursday as the FTSE (+0.69%), DAX (+0.92%), and CAC (+1.73%) are indicative of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are looking to rebound as well, but in a mixed fashion. The DIA is implying a +0.67% open, the SPY implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implying a flat -0.02% open. 10-year bond yields are also up sharply to 1.341% overnight.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to the Fed Economic Policy Report (11 am). The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is GBX before the open.

Markets seemed to have found a little support Thursday after the nasty gap down. The bulls refused to roll over, but the bears were also not done fighting as of day end. It looks like the day will start with the bulls attempting to follow through on their rally off the lows yesterday. That said, a single gap down did not do a lot to relieve what many consider too long of a run without a pullback. So, be careful. As mentioned yesterday, one candle does not indicate a trend change. However, it also does not take out all the sellers who have been waiting to pounce.

The odds still favor sticking with the trend. However, at some point, all trends fail. Those points of indecision are a good place to step back and wait on things to shake out. You DO NOT have to trade every day. So, consider whether this is your market condition or not. If you do trade, focus on your open positions first and be more nimble or hedged. Keep following your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. And remember it’s Friday…payday. And maybe a time to lighten up for the weekend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AGEN, AKAM, FUBO, CLRE, SNOW, UNG, TGT, NET, CUBE, IT, LE, MDLZ, NSA, CLX, WFG, SPCE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Dollar, Interest Rates, and Futures Down

July 8, 2021 by Ed Carter

Large caps opened flat while the Nasdaq gapped higher again on Wednesday. All 3 major indices then waffled sideways the rest of the day. This left the QQQ and SPY as Hanging Man type candles at new all-time high closes and the DIA as a Bullish Harami candle in a consolidation. On the day, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.32%, and QQQ gained 0.21%. VXX ended flat at 29.63 and T2122 rose but remains on the Southside of the mid-point at 39.31. 10-year bond yields continued to fall significantly to 1.321% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.75% to $72.09/barrel.

During the afternoon, the June Fed Meeting Minutes were released. The minutes showed the Fed kept a very patient tone in their discussions about tightening policy or even tapering bond purchases. While a couple of members noted faster economic progress than expected, the consensus was that “substantial further progress” was needed before any tightening started. Meanwhile, in Europe, the ECB came into alignment with the Fed in that they have adopted 2% inflation as their goal and will allow over-shoots.

After-hours it was reported by Bloomberg that many states will file suit against GOOG. The antitrust lawsuit, being worked on by several states Attorneys General, alleges the GOOG illegally abused its power over developers in their App Store. The suit will supposedly be filed in CA by end of day. This is a separate suit to the one filed by DOJ and a few states (which was dismissed by a Federal Judge on appeal) over similar antitrust issues.

The dollar slid a quarter of a percent last night as 10-year bond yields also fell again (6 basis points), touching 1.25% at one point. The purported causes were concerns over economic growth and the new Delta variant of Covid-19 (coupled with low vaccination rates across the South and within certain demographics). However, it’s unclear what growth this would relate to given economic projections…and so far the only significant resurgence of Covid is in southern MO.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside with the only green coming from a couple exchanges that barely broke even. Hong Kong (-2.89%), Thailand (-2.09%), Malaysia (-1.40%), and Singapore (-1.08%) paced the losses. Part of the reasoning is that there may be serious risk to investors on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the US due to a regulatory crackdown. In Europe, markets are following Asia, as losses are widespread and significant at mid-day. The FTSE is showing -1.88%, The DAX -1.91%, and the CAC -2.37% at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to American exchanges following Europe and Asia. The DIA is implying a 1.29% gap down, the SPY implying a 1.22% gap lower, and the QQQ implying a 1.25% gap down at the open.

Major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (11 am). The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is LEVI after the close.

Markets have looked toppy the last couple of days, but the bulls refused to give an inch. It seems the bears have found some real energy this morning following up on global weakness and deflationary moves. So, the fickle Mr. Market has swung from fear the economy would be too hot (and the Fed would take away stimulus) to fear the economy is not hot enough. These manic swings over things that will take months (at a minimum) to work out are a clear sign of indecision and volatility. So, the bears may push today, but don’t be too certain one candle indicates a major market shift.

All trends reverse at some point and that’s exactly what we will see this morning as the short-term strong bull trendlines are broken. However, a trend break or even a pullback does not necessarily mean a shift to a bear market. It doesn’t even necessarily mean long-term technical damage. Bearish moves tend to be fast and short. So, be very careful trading in a volatile, broken-trend market until things shake out. You do not have to trade every day. If you do trade, focus on your open positions first and be more nimble or hedged. Follow your trading rules, keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Big Tech Trying to Drag Markets Higher

July 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat Tuesday. However, then we saw a divergence. The large caps sold off for the first hour or so. Then the DIA ground sideways while the SPY slowly regained ground. Meanwhile, the QQQ climbed back to the morning highs. This left us with Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices. The QQQ (+0.42%) closed at another new all-time high close, while the SPY (-0.18%) lost slightly (snapping a 7-day winning streak), and DIA (-0.61%) lagged. The VXX gained about two and one-quarter percent to 29.57 and T2122 fell back to 30.99. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) dropped almost 2% to $73.72.

During the day the Pentagon canceled the controversial $10 billion contract that had been contested between AMZN and MSFT (MSFT was awarded the contract during the last administration). However, as part of the announcement, it was stated that both companies had been asked to bid on another Multi-vendor Cloud Computing contract, where both companies are likely to get part of the pie. The market took this as a big plus for AMZN (assuming they will get a big chunk of the contract). AMZN gained 4.69% and MSFT was flat on the day.

Recent IPO company DIDI suffered another blow overnight. Chinese regulators had removed the DIDI app from app stores in China late Friday. However, last night the app was also removed from major messaging and payment services. These include Tencent, WeChat, and the Alipay payment service (spun off from BABA). While existing users of the app and who had previously used DIDI through the message platforms or payment system can continue to use it, these moves effectively stop all future growth for DIDI in China.

Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since before the start of the pandemic this week. The decline was 1.8% and took the total back to the lowest level since January 2020. Counter-intuitively, this fall came as mortgage rates fell over the same period. This, combined with the massive April, May, and June mortgage numbers may mean that the massive housing market boom has peaked.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Singapore (-1.54%), Japan (-0.96%), and Thailand (-0.93%) paced the loses. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.86%) and Australia (+0.90%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are green across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.39%), DAX (+0.82%), and CAC (unchanged) are typical of the spread across all European bourses. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a flat +0.06% open, the SPY implying a modest +0.18% open, but the QQQ is implying a +0.60% gap higher. 10-year bond yields are lower again at 1.345% this morning and the dollar is down slightly, which means commodities are higher at this point.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes May JOLTS (10 am), June FOMC Minutes (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 3:30 pm). The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day is MSM before the open.

The bulls clawed back from what had been a bad start to Tuesday. It looks like they might be trying to follow through to start off the day Wednesday. The lack of any movement on OPEC+ negotiations may help bulls today, especially in the Oil sector. However, be careful here. The large caps feel a little toppy and the QQQ has been on a heck of a run, which implies a need for at least some rest if not pullback.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. However, The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. So, follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

No OPEC Production Deal Keeps Oil Rising

July 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Friday on blowout June Payrolls (+850k and accompanied with an increase in the unemployment rate) and then all 3 major indices slowly trekked higher at varying rates. This left the SPY and QQQ with strong white candles and new all-time high closes. Meanwhile, the DIA printed a nice white gap-up Spinning Top and also eked out a new all-time high close. On the day, QQQ gained 1.15%, SPY gained 0.76%, and DIA gained 0.46%. VXX fell slightly to 28.90 and T2122 actually closed in the mid-range at 69.06 (after being near 100 earlier in the day). 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.431% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $75.20/barrel.

Bloomberg reported Saturday that a massive ransomware attack has hit more than 1,000 companies. While the list of victim companies continues to expand, so far it appears the targets have been small-to-medium-size companies who use IT service providers. The service providers (gateway for attack) include SNX, a major (and listed) provider out of Miami.

OPEC+ voted to increase production by roughly 400,000 barrels per day each month for the remainder of 2021 (starting in August) and extend the rest of the production cuts that are in place through the end of 2022. (Analysts had expected the number to be about +500,000 barrels/day.) However, UAE rejected both proposals that block them from taking place. After 2 days of negotiations, talks broke down Monday. No date has been set to resume negotiations, but in the meantime, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Tuesday has been canceled. Analysts see oil prices rising in the short-term if OPEC+ fails to reach a deal, but future oil prices are uncertain without a deal as the group members may ramp up production in an effort to capture market share and fill budget deficits from last year. Regardless, WTI Oil is up 1.5% to a 6 year high in the premarket.

Recent IPO DIDI, the Chinese ride-sharing giant that dwarfs UBER in China, is down sharply in premarket. Late on Friday China announced it was forcing all app stores in their country to remove the DIDI app (while still allowing those who already have the app on their phones to continue using it). This comes after the Chinese regulators had “advised” the company to postpone its US listing…and the company did not heed that advice. The reported problem is that the Chinese government needs to “review DIDI app network security.” As of 7:40 am, DID was down 18% from Friday’s close.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed on mostly modest moves. Singapore (+1.58%) was an outlier, with South Korea (+0.36%), Shenzhen (-0.35%), and Hong Kong (-0.25%) being more typical. In Europe, the day has also started mixed. While most of the smaller exchanges are modestly, but firmly green at mid-day, the FTSE (-0.20%), DAX (-0.39%), and CAC (-0.32%) are just as firmly in the red. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.07% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.09% open.

Major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes June Services PMI (9:45 am), June ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The OPEC+ negotiation breakdown (Saudi Arabia vs UAE primarily) is the main market driver this morning. Oil names continue to soar under the feeling that no deal by OPEC+ means that oil production caps will remain in place in the middle-east (leading to higher oil prices). However, the dollar is also up significantly this morning, which will have a muting effect on commodities. For what it’s worth, Treasury yields are just on the red side of flat so far this morning, which would suggest the oil situation has not spawned greater inflation/Fed fear in markets yet.

Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DNMR, LKQ, OKE, RIOT, MARA, UBER, COP, JKS, ZNGA, BP, COF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

June Payrolls Data Coming This Morning

July 2, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened essentially flat Thursday, with a sideways grind that followed showing a slight uptrend in the large-caps. All 3 of the major indices closed near the highs of the day. The QQQ printed a sort of Spinning Top or Doji, while the DIA printed a sort of Hanging Man candle, and the SPY printed a strong white almost Marubozu. On the day, SPY gained 0.57% (to close at another all-time high close), DIA gained 0.41% (now less than half a percent below the all-time high close), and QQQ gained 0.04%. The VXX fell 1.5% to 28.99 and T2122 jumped higher, but remains just outside the overbought territory at 75. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.466% and Oil (WTI) gained over 2% to $74.96.

During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen announced that 130 countries have agreed to the Biden Administration proposal of a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%. It was not announced whether low-tax havens such as Ireland have come around. However, this momentum could have large repercussions for stocks, as many of the stock market names pay far less than the proposed minimum. For example, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, NFLX, BA, INTC, PFE, GM, and many others pay far less than even the bottom (15%) number being discussed.

Most of the major car makers reported Q2 sales Thursday. GM reported a 40% increase year-on-year and a 7% increase from Q1. This was a little shy of analyst expectations. TM saw a 73% increase year-on-year and a 14% increase from Q1, which was above estimates. This marks the first time ever the Toyota has outsold GM for a quarter. F will report their numbers today. The question then will be whether F retains the crown as the best-selling automaker in the US.

In miscellaneous stock news, SPCE has bumped up its launch date for its first passenger flight into space to July 11. (The idea is for Richard Branson to beat Jeff Bezos to become the first civilian in space.) SPCE is soaring in premarket on the news. Despite Wednesday’s record fine, Robinhood has filed for an IPO and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker HOOD.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with China showing huge moves to the downside relative to a muted rest of the region. Shenzhen (-2.45%), Shanghai (-1.95%), and Hong Kong (-1.80%) were outliers to the downside as the rest of the region saw modest moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are green except for a could small outliers (Greece and Denmark). However, this is also on modest moves as the world waits on US Payroll data. The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.07%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat an hour. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.19% open at this hour. In addition, 10-year bond yields are down to 1.446%, the dollar is slightly positive, and commodities are mostly in the green in front of the big data dump.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jun Avg, Hourly Earnings, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, Jun Participation Rate, Jun Unemployment Rate, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and May Factory Orders (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The big Payroll data is likely to call the tune for Mr. Market this morning. Economists are expecting that 706k jobs were added, that unemployment fell to 5.6% , and that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June. We’ll have to see how close to the mark those forecasts end up being. The trend remains positive, but it is looking weary. (Or is it just resting in the climb?). Regardless, in front of a long weekend, it might be wise to take profits, move stops, lighten up, and/or put hedges in place. Trade smart, it’s your money whether you hold the cash or leave the bet on the table.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HES, CTLT, BYD, FB, BOX, GRWG, FOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Q3 Starts With Jobless Claims This AM

July 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Wednesday as we saw another sideways grind all day in the SPY and QQQ. The DIA did similar, but managed a slightly positive trend to its grind. This action left us with a Doji Harami in the QQQ, a small Bullish Engulfing with upper wick in the SPY, and a larger Bullish Engulfing in the DIA. On the day, DIA gained 0.60%, SPY gained 0.09% (to a new all-time high close), and QQQ lost 0.16%. It is worth noting that all the major indices closed Q2 at or very near all-time highs The VXX fell a percent to 29.46 and T2122 rose slightly to 44.12 (still in the mid-range). 10-year bond yields fell to 1.465% and Oil (WTI) gained a tad to $73.51/barrel.

In economic news, ADP Nonfarm Employment came in almost 100,000 higher than expected. However, it was the May Pending Home Sales that was the big news. It had been forecast to fall almost 1%, but came in up 8.0%. That massive beat was very unexpected and may inform the much lower than expected mortgage demand recently. In short, the sales may have already been booked in April and May.

During the day Wednesday, Robinhood was fined a record $70 million by FINRA. This covered $57 million for misleading advertising and another $13 million in restitution to customers for outages that prevented them from exiting trades. Other news during the day included F announcing that it was cutting production in 8 North American plans (6 in the US) for various periods starting next week and lasting at least into August. The cause of the shutdown was a lack of semiconductor chips for F-1150, Bronco, Mustang, and Explorer models.

The major automakers report their Q2 sales today (at unscheduled times). The lone exception is F, which will report the same information Friday. Analysts are expecting to see a 52% year-on-year increase in sales. This would bring Q2 sales totals to 4.5 million vehicles, despite the factory shutdowns and incomplete assembly caused by the global chip shortage.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side on modest moves. Shenzhen (-0.81%), Australia (-0.65%), and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean to the green side as of mid-day, also on relatively small moves. The FTSE (+0.45%), DAX (-0.14%), and CAC (-0.03%) are a good indication of European range. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.07% open, the SPY implying a +0.021% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.18% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moved up with some strength overnight, now at 1.48%. This comes amid Dollar weakness, which is also helping commodities.

Major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AYI, MKC, and WBA before the open. There are no earnings releases scheduled for after the close

With the Dollar falling and both interest rate and commodity prices rising early, the stock market may rediscover some inflation fear today. For example, Crude is back to 2018 levels ($75/barrel). While most of the reallocation trade is done, there may be some retail trader shuffling still to do. So, keep an eye on rotation again. That said, the trend is still decidedly bullish, if a bit weary at this point.

Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: XPEV, OXY, BP, ERX, AR, XOM, TSLA, IQ, JMIA, RIOT, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed May Be Right and Mortgage Apps Fall

June 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened basically flat on Tuesday (the DIA did gap a third of a percent higher) and then the 3 major indices ground sideways with a slight trend. As a result, SPY printed a Doji (but at a new all-time high close), the DIA printed a black inside candle closing near the low with an upper wick, and the QQQ printed another nice white candle closing at the highs and at a new all-time high close. Semiconductors led the QQQ higher as SWKS, XLNX, AMD, CRUS, AAPL, QCOM, and AVGO all put in stellar sessions. On the day large-caps closed basically flat, as the SPY gained 0.05%, the DIA gained 0.02%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX gained 2% to 29.77 and T2122 fell again to 34.97. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.475% and Oil (TWI) gained about three-quarters of a percent to $73.44/barrel.

CNBC reported this morning that Fed data released today indicates that markets may be past their peak level of inflation fear. The data (pulled from FRED by analysts) reinforces Fed member positions that inflation is likely transient and not structural. Specifically, the analysis looked at the 5-year break-even inflation rate (now at 2.45%) and the 10-year break-even rate (now 2.33%). (The break-even rate is the difference between the treasury yields and inflation-indexed bonds for a given period.) This tells us bond traders now anticipate inflation to be falling in a longer timeframe, despite it rising in the short term. Clearly, this is not gospel, but maybe an indication that stocks will continue to be attractive as longer-term safety trades can’t compete on return.

Home prices surged in April according to the Case-Shiller Price Index. The gained was 13.3% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year. This was the biggest gain in home prices in 30 years. While this does represent an increase in the value of the major asset of many American families, as with any average the gains were uneven. High-end homes saw the biggest gains while lower-end home prices saw single-digit gains. Charlotte NC, Cleveland OH, Dallas TX, Denver CO, and Seattle WA all saw their largest ever annual gains. However, data out this morning shows that mortgage demand fell 7% this week (and 17% from one year ago) as 30-year interest rates rise.

After the close Tuesday, RCL announced that any passengers sailing from US ports without being fully-vaccinated, will be required to have travel insurance. FL passed a law that exempts itself from this as of January 1, 2022, leaving the insurance burden on cruise operators for ships leaving their ports.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.08%) and Singapore (+1.33%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, Malaysia (-1.01%) and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. However, in Europe markets are decidedly in the red as of early afternoon. The FTSE (-0.59%), DAX (-0.93%), and CAC (-0.75%) are good indicators of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.02% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.01% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moving significantly lower, now at 1.454%.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), May Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed Speaker (Bostic at 8 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BBBY, STZ, GIS, and SCHN before the open. Then after the close, MU and YUMC report.

Interest rates came down overnight, but Oil and Nat Gas prices surged, even as the dollar is a bit stronger. However, yesterday’s gains were not widespread as only two of the 10 major sectors were in the green (technology, of course, and Consumer Cyclical). So, markets are showing signs of being wary at these levels. Be careful, but it’s hard to fight a bullish trend until it breaks.

Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, UCO, NOK, KOPN, DPZ, XBI, RKT, UBER, SQ, INO, AI, APPS, QS, RIDE, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching