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Antitrust Executive Order Coming

July 9, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday was wild ride with all three major indices gapping down 1.3%, grinding sideways until 11 am, and then rallying for a couple of hours before fading late in the day. Support seemed to hold in all 3, but this left large-body candles with wicks at both ends in all the indices. So, while the bulls refused to roll over, you’d have to say that on balance it was the bears that were in control. On the day, SPY lost 0.80%, DIA lost 0.73%, and QQQ lost 0.58%. The VXX gained 6.5% to 31.54 and T2122 dropped all the way down deep into the oversold territory at 7.93. 10-year bond yields fell yet again to 1.293% (which was actually up significantly from the 1.25% it hit in premarket) and Oil (WTI) rose 1.29% to $73.13 on a falling dollar.

The White House announced that President Biden will sign an executive order that cracks down on anti-competitive practices in big tech, labor, and other sectors. This order directs a dozen federal agencies on how to approach corporate consolidation and antitrust. There are 72 specific actions outlined in the order, but details are not yet available. What is known is that the White House is calling the changes “sweeping.”

PFE also made post-market news, saying that immunity provided by their vaccine has begun to wane and announcing they will seek FDA approval for clinical trials of a new Covid Booster Shot. The company also said it believes that immunity will require an additional booster 6-12mo. following completion of their 2-dose original regimen. The booster they have been developing specifically targets the highly contagious Delta variant and trials could start in August if approved. However, the CDC, FDA, and NIH commented that the waning of immunity has not yet been demonstrated and they will analyze the data as it comes in.

In banking news, yesterday WFC closed its “personal line of credit” business, angering thousands of customers. The reported reason is so that the bank can focus on credit card and personal loan lines of business. Meanwhile, overnight MS reported that there was a breach of customer data from one of the stock-plan businesses they operate. The company said they have already contacted the customers who were impacted.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side. Taiwan (-1.15%), South Korea (-1.07%), and Australia (-0.93%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are green across the board so far today. The region is seeing significant rebounds from Thursday as the FTSE (+0.69%), DAX (+0.92%), and CAC (+1.73%) are indicative of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are looking to rebound as well, but in a mixed fashion. The DIA is implying a +0.67% open, the SPY implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implying a flat -0.02% open. 10-year bond yields are also up sharply to 1.341% overnight.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to the Fed Economic Policy Report (11 am). The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is GBX before the open.

Markets seemed to have found a little support Thursday after the nasty gap down. The bulls refused to roll over, but the bears were also not done fighting as of day end. It looks like the day will start with the bulls attempting to follow through on their rally off the lows yesterday. That said, a single gap down did not do a lot to relieve what many consider too long of a run without a pullback. So, be careful. As mentioned yesterday, one candle does not indicate a trend change. However, it also does not take out all the sellers who have been waiting to pounce.

The odds still favor sticking with the trend. However, at some point, all trends fail. Those points of indecision are a good place to step back and wait on things to shake out. You DO NOT have to trade every day. So, consider whether this is your market condition or not. If you do trade, focus on your open positions first and be more nimble or hedged. Keep following your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. And remember it’s Friday…payday. And maybe a time to lighten up for the weekend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AGEN, AKAM, FUBO, CLRE, SNOW, UNG, TGT, NET, CUBE, IT, LE, MDLZ, NSA, CLX, WFG, SPCE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Dollar, Interest Rates, and Futures Down

July 8, 2021 by Ed Carter

Large caps opened flat while the Nasdaq gapped higher again on Wednesday. All 3 major indices then waffled sideways the rest of the day. This left the QQQ and SPY as Hanging Man type candles at new all-time high closes and the DIA as a Bullish Harami candle in a consolidation. On the day, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.32%, and QQQ gained 0.21%. VXX ended flat at 29.63 and T2122 rose but remains on the Southside of the mid-point at 39.31. 10-year bond yields continued to fall significantly to 1.321% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.75% to $72.09/barrel.

During the afternoon, the June Fed Meeting Minutes were released. The minutes showed the Fed kept a very patient tone in their discussions about tightening policy or even tapering bond purchases. While a couple of members noted faster economic progress than expected, the consensus was that “substantial further progress” was needed before any tightening started. Meanwhile, in Europe, the ECB came into alignment with the Fed in that they have adopted 2% inflation as their goal and will allow over-shoots.

After-hours it was reported by Bloomberg that many states will file suit against GOOG. The antitrust lawsuit, being worked on by several states Attorneys General, alleges the GOOG illegally abused its power over developers in their App Store. The suit will supposedly be filed in CA by end of day. This is a separate suit to the one filed by DOJ and a few states (which was dismissed by a Federal Judge on appeal) over similar antitrust issues.

The dollar slid a quarter of a percent last night as 10-year bond yields also fell again (6 basis points), touching 1.25% at one point. The purported causes were concerns over economic growth and the new Delta variant of Covid-19 (coupled with low vaccination rates across the South and within certain demographics). However, it’s unclear what growth this would relate to given economic projections…and so far the only significant resurgence of Covid is in southern MO.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside with the only green coming from a couple exchanges that barely broke even. Hong Kong (-2.89%), Thailand (-2.09%), Malaysia (-1.40%), and Singapore (-1.08%) paced the losses. Part of the reasoning is that there may be serious risk to investors on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the US due to a regulatory crackdown. In Europe, markets are following Asia, as losses are widespread and significant at mid-day. The FTSE is showing -1.88%, The DAX -1.91%, and the CAC -2.37% at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to American exchanges following Europe and Asia. The DIA is implying a 1.29% gap down, the SPY implying a 1.22% gap lower, and the QQQ implying a 1.25% gap down at the open.

Major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (11 am). The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is LEVI after the close.

Markets have looked toppy the last couple of days, but the bulls refused to give an inch. It seems the bears have found some real energy this morning following up on global weakness and deflationary moves. So, the fickle Mr. Market has swung from fear the economy would be too hot (and the Fed would take away stimulus) to fear the economy is not hot enough. These manic swings over things that will take months (at a minimum) to work out are a clear sign of indecision and volatility. So, the bears may push today, but don’t be too certain one candle indicates a major market shift.

All trends reverse at some point and that’s exactly what we will see this morning as the short-term strong bull trendlines are broken. However, a trend break or even a pullback does not necessarily mean a shift to a bear market. It doesn’t even necessarily mean long-term technical damage. Bearish moves tend to be fast and short. So, be very careful trading in a volatile, broken-trend market until things shake out. You do not have to trade every day. If you do trade, focus on your open positions first and be more nimble or hedged. Follow your trading rules, keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Big Tech Trying to Drag Markets Higher

July 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat Tuesday. However, then we saw a divergence. The large caps sold off for the first hour or so. Then the DIA ground sideways while the SPY slowly regained ground. Meanwhile, the QQQ climbed back to the morning highs. This left us with Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices. The QQQ (+0.42%) closed at another new all-time high close, while the SPY (-0.18%) lost slightly (snapping a 7-day winning streak), and DIA (-0.61%) lagged. The VXX gained about two and one-quarter percent to 29.57 and T2122 fell back to 30.99. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) dropped almost 2% to $73.72.

During the day the Pentagon canceled the controversial $10 billion contract that had been contested between AMZN and MSFT (MSFT was awarded the contract during the last administration). However, as part of the announcement, it was stated that both companies had been asked to bid on another Multi-vendor Cloud Computing contract, where both companies are likely to get part of the pie. The market took this as a big plus for AMZN (assuming they will get a big chunk of the contract). AMZN gained 4.69% and MSFT was flat on the day.

Recent IPO company DIDI suffered another blow overnight. Chinese regulators had removed the DIDI app from app stores in China late Friday. However, last night the app was also removed from major messaging and payment services. These include Tencent, WeChat, and the Alipay payment service (spun off from BABA). While existing users of the app and who had previously used DIDI through the message platforms or payment system can continue to use it, these moves effectively stop all future growth for DIDI in China.

Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since before the start of the pandemic this week. The decline was 1.8% and took the total back to the lowest level since January 2020. Counter-intuitively, this fall came as mortgage rates fell over the same period. This, combined with the massive April, May, and June mortgage numbers may mean that the massive housing market boom has peaked.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Singapore (-1.54%), Japan (-0.96%), and Thailand (-0.93%) paced the loses. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.86%) and Australia (+0.90%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are green across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.39%), DAX (+0.82%), and CAC (unchanged) are typical of the spread across all European bourses. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a flat +0.06% open, the SPY implying a modest +0.18% open, but the QQQ is implying a +0.60% gap higher. 10-year bond yields are lower again at 1.345% this morning and the dollar is down slightly, which means commodities are higher at this point.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes May JOLTS (10 am), June FOMC Minutes (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 3:30 pm). The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day is MSM before the open.

The bulls clawed back from what had been a bad start to Tuesday. It looks like they might be trying to follow through to start off the day Wednesday. The lack of any movement on OPEC+ negotiations may help bulls today, especially in the Oil sector. However, be careful here. The large caps feel a little toppy and the QQQ has been on a heck of a run, which implies a need for at least some rest if not pullback.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. However, The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. So, follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

No OPEC Production Deal Keeps Oil Rising

July 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Friday on blowout June Payrolls (+850k and accompanied with an increase in the unemployment rate) and then all 3 major indices slowly trekked higher at varying rates. This left the SPY and QQQ with strong white candles and new all-time high closes. Meanwhile, the DIA printed a nice white gap-up Spinning Top and also eked out a new all-time high close. On the day, QQQ gained 1.15%, SPY gained 0.76%, and DIA gained 0.46%. VXX fell slightly to 28.90 and T2122 actually closed in the mid-range at 69.06 (after being near 100 earlier in the day). 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.431% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $75.20/barrel.

Bloomberg reported Saturday that a massive ransomware attack has hit more than 1,000 companies. While the list of victim companies continues to expand, so far it appears the targets have been small-to-medium-size companies who use IT service providers. The service providers (gateway for attack) include SNX, a major (and listed) provider out of Miami.

OPEC+ voted to increase production by roughly 400,000 barrels per day each month for the remainder of 2021 (starting in August) and extend the rest of the production cuts that are in place through the end of 2022. (Analysts had expected the number to be about +500,000 barrels/day.) However, UAE rejected both proposals that block them from taking place. After 2 days of negotiations, talks broke down Monday. No date has been set to resume negotiations, but in the meantime, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Tuesday has been canceled. Analysts see oil prices rising in the short-term if OPEC+ fails to reach a deal, but future oil prices are uncertain without a deal as the group members may ramp up production in an effort to capture market share and fill budget deficits from last year. Regardless, WTI Oil is up 1.5% to a 6 year high in the premarket.

Recent IPO DIDI, the Chinese ride-sharing giant that dwarfs UBER in China, is down sharply in premarket. Late on Friday China announced it was forcing all app stores in their country to remove the DIDI app (while still allowing those who already have the app on their phones to continue using it). This comes after the Chinese regulators had “advised” the company to postpone its US listing…and the company did not heed that advice. The reported problem is that the Chinese government needs to “review DIDI app network security.” As of 7:40 am, DID was down 18% from Friday’s close.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed on mostly modest moves. Singapore (+1.58%) was an outlier, with South Korea (+0.36%), Shenzhen (-0.35%), and Hong Kong (-0.25%) being more typical. In Europe, the day has also started mixed. While most of the smaller exchanges are modestly, but firmly green at mid-day, the FTSE (-0.20%), DAX (-0.39%), and CAC (-0.32%) are just as firmly in the red. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.07% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.09% open.

Major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes June Services PMI (9:45 am), June ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The OPEC+ negotiation breakdown (Saudi Arabia vs UAE primarily) is the main market driver this morning. Oil names continue to soar under the feeling that no deal by OPEC+ means that oil production caps will remain in place in the middle-east (leading to higher oil prices). However, the dollar is also up significantly this morning, which will have a muting effect on commodities. For what it’s worth, Treasury yields are just on the red side of flat so far this morning, which would suggest the oil situation has not spawned greater inflation/Fed fear in markets yet.

Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DNMR, LKQ, OKE, RIOT, MARA, UBER, COP, JKS, ZNGA, BP, COF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

June Payrolls Data Coming This Morning

July 2, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened essentially flat Thursday, with a sideways grind that followed showing a slight uptrend in the large-caps. All 3 of the major indices closed near the highs of the day. The QQQ printed a sort of Spinning Top or Doji, while the DIA printed a sort of Hanging Man candle, and the SPY printed a strong white almost Marubozu. On the day, SPY gained 0.57% (to close at another all-time high close), DIA gained 0.41% (now less than half a percent below the all-time high close), and QQQ gained 0.04%. The VXX fell 1.5% to 28.99 and T2122 jumped higher, but remains just outside the overbought territory at 75. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.466% and Oil (WTI) gained over 2% to $74.96.

During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen announced that 130 countries have agreed to the Biden Administration proposal of a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%. It was not announced whether low-tax havens such as Ireland have come around. However, this momentum could have large repercussions for stocks, as many of the stock market names pay far less than the proposed minimum. For example, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, NFLX, BA, INTC, PFE, GM, and many others pay far less than even the bottom (15%) number being discussed.

Most of the major car makers reported Q2 sales Thursday. GM reported a 40% increase year-on-year and a 7% increase from Q1. This was a little shy of analyst expectations. TM saw a 73% increase year-on-year and a 14% increase from Q1, which was above estimates. This marks the first time ever the Toyota has outsold GM for a quarter. F will report their numbers today. The question then will be whether F retains the crown as the best-selling automaker in the US.

In miscellaneous stock news, SPCE has bumped up its launch date for its first passenger flight into space to July 11. (The idea is for Richard Branson to beat Jeff Bezos to become the first civilian in space.) SPCE is soaring in premarket on the news. Despite Wednesday’s record fine, Robinhood has filed for an IPO and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker HOOD.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with China showing huge moves to the downside relative to a muted rest of the region. Shenzhen (-2.45%), Shanghai (-1.95%), and Hong Kong (-1.80%) were outliers to the downside as the rest of the region saw modest moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are green except for a could small outliers (Greece and Denmark). However, this is also on modest moves as the world waits on US Payroll data. The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.07%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat an hour. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.19% open at this hour. In addition, 10-year bond yields are down to 1.446%, the dollar is slightly positive, and commodities are mostly in the green in front of the big data dump.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jun Avg, Hourly Earnings, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, Jun Participation Rate, Jun Unemployment Rate, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and May Factory Orders (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The big Payroll data is likely to call the tune for Mr. Market this morning. Economists are expecting that 706k jobs were added, that unemployment fell to 5.6% , and that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June. We’ll have to see how close to the mark those forecasts end up being. The trend remains positive, but it is looking weary. (Or is it just resting in the climb?). Regardless, in front of a long weekend, it might be wise to take profits, move stops, lighten up, and/or put hedges in place. Trade smart, it’s your money whether you hold the cash or leave the bet on the table.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HES, CTLT, BYD, FB, BOX, GRWG, FOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Q3 Starts With Jobless Claims This AM

July 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Wednesday as we saw another sideways grind all day in the SPY and QQQ. The DIA did similar, but managed a slightly positive trend to its grind. This action left us with a Doji Harami in the QQQ, a small Bullish Engulfing with upper wick in the SPY, and a larger Bullish Engulfing in the DIA. On the day, DIA gained 0.60%, SPY gained 0.09% (to a new all-time high close), and QQQ lost 0.16%. It is worth noting that all the major indices closed Q2 at or very near all-time highs The VXX fell a percent to 29.46 and T2122 rose slightly to 44.12 (still in the mid-range). 10-year bond yields fell to 1.465% and Oil (WTI) gained a tad to $73.51/barrel.

In economic news, ADP Nonfarm Employment came in almost 100,000 higher than expected. However, it was the May Pending Home Sales that was the big news. It had been forecast to fall almost 1%, but came in up 8.0%. That massive beat was very unexpected and may inform the much lower than expected mortgage demand recently. In short, the sales may have already been booked in April and May.

During the day Wednesday, Robinhood was fined a record $70 million by FINRA. This covered $57 million for misleading advertising and another $13 million in restitution to customers for outages that prevented them from exiting trades. Other news during the day included F announcing that it was cutting production in 8 North American plans (6 in the US) for various periods starting next week and lasting at least into August. The cause of the shutdown was a lack of semiconductor chips for F-1150, Bronco, Mustang, and Explorer models.

The major automakers report their Q2 sales today (at unscheduled times). The lone exception is F, which will report the same information Friday. Analysts are expecting to see a 52% year-on-year increase in sales. This would bring Q2 sales totals to 4.5 million vehicles, despite the factory shutdowns and incomplete assembly caused by the global chip shortage.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side on modest moves. Shenzhen (-0.81%), Australia (-0.65%), and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean to the green side as of mid-day, also on relatively small moves. The FTSE (+0.45%), DAX (-0.14%), and CAC (-0.03%) are a good indication of European range. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.07% open, the SPY implying a +0.021% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.18% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moved up with some strength overnight, now at 1.48%. This comes amid Dollar weakness, which is also helping commodities.

Major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AYI, MKC, and WBA before the open. There are no earnings releases scheduled for after the close

With the Dollar falling and both interest rate and commodity prices rising early, the stock market may rediscover some inflation fear today. For example, Crude is back to 2018 levels ($75/barrel). While most of the reallocation trade is done, there may be some retail trader shuffling still to do. So, keep an eye on rotation again. That said, the trend is still decidedly bullish, if a bit weary at this point.

Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: XPEV, OXY, BP, ERX, AR, XOM, TSLA, IQ, JMIA, RIOT, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed May Be Right and Mortgage Apps Fall

June 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened basically flat on Tuesday (the DIA did gap a third of a percent higher) and then the 3 major indices ground sideways with a slight trend. As a result, SPY printed a Doji (but at a new all-time high close), the DIA printed a black inside candle closing near the low with an upper wick, and the QQQ printed another nice white candle closing at the highs and at a new all-time high close. Semiconductors led the QQQ higher as SWKS, XLNX, AMD, CRUS, AAPL, QCOM, and AVGO all put in stellar sessions. On the day large-caps closed basically flat, as the SPY gained 0.05%, the DIA gained 0.02%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX gained 2% to 29.77 and T2122 fell again to 34.97. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.475% and Oil (TWI) gained about three-quarters of a percent to $73.44/barrel.

CNBC reported this morning that Fed data released today indicates that markets may be past their peak level of inflation fear. The data (pulled from FRED by analysts) reinforces Fed member positions that inflation is likely transient and not structural. Specifically, the analysis looked at the 5-year break-even inflation rate (now at 2.45%) and the 10-year break-even rate (now 2.33%). (The break-even rate is the difference between the treasury yields and inflation-indexed bonds for a given period.) This tells us bond traders now anticipate inflation to be falling in a longer timeframe, despite it rising in the short term. Clearly, this is not gospel, but maybe an indication that stocks will continue to be attractive as longer-term safety trades can’t compete on return.

Home prices surged in April according to the Case-Shiller Price Index. The gained was 13.3% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year. This was the biggest gain in home prices in 30 years. While this does represent an increase in the value of the major asset of many American families, as with any average the gains were uneven. High-end homes saw the biggest gains while lower-end home prices saw single-digit gains. Charlotte NC, Cleveland OH, Dallas TX, Denver CO, and Seattle WA all saw their largest ever annual gains. However, data out this morning shows that mortgage demand fell 7% this week (and 17% from one year ago) as 30-year interest rates rise.

After the close Tuesday, RCL announced that any passengers sailing from US ports without being fully-vaccinated, will be required to have travel insurance. FL passed a law that exempts itself from this as of January 1, 2022, leaving the insurance burden on cruise operators for ships leaving their ports.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.08%) and Singapore (+1.33%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, Malaysia (-1.01%) and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. However, in Europe markets are decidedly in the red as of early afternoon. The FTSE (-0.59%), DAX (-0.93%), and CAC (-0.75%) are good indicators of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.02% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.01% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moving significantly lower, now at 1.454%.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), May Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed Speaker (Bostic at 8 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BBBY, STZ, GIS, and SCHN before the open. Then after the close, MU and YUMC report.

Interest rates came down overnight, but Oil and Nat Gas prices surged, even as the dollar is a bit stronger. However, yesterday’s gains were not widespread as only two of the 10 major sectors were in the green (technology, of course, and Consumer Cyclical). So, markets are showing signs of being wary at these levels. Be careful, but it’s hard to fight a bullish trend until it breaks.

Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, UCO, NOK, KOPN, DPZ, XBI, RKT, UBER, SQ, INO, AI, APPS, QS, RIDE, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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BA Buys Jets – Thomas Lightens Up On Pot

June 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Monday saw the large caps open flat and the QQQ gap four-tenths of a percent higher. The SPY and DIA then sold off before grinding sideways. However, a court ruling led FB to rocket higher in the afternoon, and both the QQQ and SPY followed. This left the SPY printing a potential Hanging Man signal (at another all-time high close), the QQQ printing a strong Bullish Kicker (also settling at a new all-time high close), and the DIA lagged printing an ugly black candle, but perhaps finding some support as it closed up off the lows of the day. On the day, QQQ gained 1.20%, SPY gained 0.20%, and DIA lost 0.48%. The VXX was flat at 29.17 and T2122 fell even further to 40.10 (diverging from the SPY and QQQ). 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.478% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.6% to $72.84/barrel.

As mentioned, a Federal Judge ruled in favor of FB, over-ruling a lower court and throwing out an antitrust case that had been brought by the FTC and 48 state AGs. The case had been set to force FB to divest of Instagram and WhatsApp. However, the judge ruled that despite lower court rulings, the FTC had not proven FB had or was maintaining a monopoly through anticompetitive means. FB closed above a $1 trillion valuation after gaining almost 4.2% on the day.

Late in the day, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas put out a statement saying that Federal prohibitions against marijuana sales and distribution may be outdated and in need of revisiting. Coming from a supposedly staunchly conservative Justice, this may signal a slightly more progressive shift in the court. The statement came as the court declined to hear a case about the Federal tax deductions of a Colorado medical marijuana dispensary. While cannabis stocks did not pop on the news, this could have longer-term implications for pot names like GRWG, ACB, CARA, CRON, and HEXO.

In stock news, early this morning UAL announced they have placed their largest order ever, including some 270-plane orders. This includes 200 “narrow body” jets from BA and 70 Airbus 320 wide-body planes. UAL also announced it expects to hire 25,000 new employees to service the planes, including flight crews, mechanics, and other ground crew. Interestingly for BA, this comes less than a day after the FAA had told the company that its newest 777X jet would not get approval to fly until mid or late 2023.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned heavily to the red side. Shenzhen (-0.99%), Shanghai (-0.92%), and Hong Kong (-0.94%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Thailand (+0.78%) was the lone exchange that was significantly green. In Europe, markets are leaning to the green side as of the early afternoon. The FTSE (+0.30%), DAX (+0.88%), and CAC (+0.44%) lead the gainers with Greece (-1.04%) and Russia (-0.95%) as outliers to the downside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat and mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.11% open at this hour.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The dollar has been surging overnight. Of course, this means most commodities are down proportionately. Natural gas (+1.48%) is the major exception. However, with markets waiting on employment data later this week, there seems to be uncertainty in the stock market. It is absolutely true that the tech-led reflation trade led the bulls higher in the QQQ Monday. However, large-cap traders seem far less certain at these lofty heights. We also have to consider quarter-end rebalancing and window dressing as possibilities as the funds prepare for their Q2 statements. The bulls still have the trend in their favor, but things are looking a little extended or tired outside the Nasdaq. So, be cautious and watch for signs of rotation or reversal.

Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, takes those singles and doubles…don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CRON, YOLO, NOK, QS, PLUG, DPZ, RIDE, NIO, JD, SQ, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Markets Look to Start Week Flat

June 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Friday saw another gap up (half a percent in the DIA), but then the large caps waffled sideways the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the QQQ faded the gap (sold off a bit) before starting its sideways grind the rest of the day. The big banks led the way as a group as investors fought tooth and nail to get in before the post-stress-test dividend increases and buyback programs get announced. SPY printed another new all-time high close as both the DIA and SPY printed Spinning Top type small candles. However, the QQQ printed a Bearish Engulfing of a Shooting Star Doji. On the day, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.72%, and the QQQ lost 0.12%. The VXX fell almost 2% to 29.19 and T2122 fell back out of the overbought territory, now at 76.61. 10-year bond yields rose significantly to 1.526% as the Fed-favorite PCE Price Index came in hot and Oil (WTI) was up 1% to $73.98/barrel.

On Saturday, JNJ agreed to halt the sales of opioids across the US as well as to pay a small $260 million settlement with NY state. China also announced that it is forcing TSLA to recall 300,000 Model 3 and Model Y cars related to assisted-driving software. However, this would be a remote “software push” recall and not require cars to be physically returned to dealers. The AAPL streaming video service (Apple TV+, which competes with DIS and NFLX) will start facing a test this week. Up to now, the service has offered as a free 12-month trial with other purchases. However, this will change to a 3-mo. Trial as of Thursday and the first users to have taken the trial will start to be billed $4.99/month.

In the cryptocurrency world this weekend, governments made another move to keep control over currencies. On Sunday, the UK Financial Conduct Authority warned UK consumers and banned the largest crypto exchange (Binance) from doing business in the UK. The exchange has until Wednesday to confirm that it has removed all of its advertising and promotions from UK jurisdiction. Bitcoin held at $33,227 (as of noon Sunday) after the announcement was made. Bloomberg reported that at least one major industry analyst saw this as a positive move, adding that more regulation is a signal that crypto is a more mature and safer asset class…which will draw in more investors.

More clarity has been revealed about the latest investigations GOOG faces from the EU. This time the EU is focused on the GOOG ad network, data collection, and distribution, and the way ads are targeted to users on the YouTube platform. Specifically, the EU is investigating Google Ad Manager, the algorithm used to display ads, the way GOOG rivals’ ads were served to viewers, and whether GOOG used data on those ads for their benefit. In other words, whether the competitor’s ad response data was used by GOOG for competitive advantage and whether rival ads were served on a fair playing ground compared to GOOG’s own product ads. The key “rivals” mentioned here are AAPL, FB, and MSFT.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side on modest moves following the release of bad Chinese Industrial data. Oddly, Shenzhen (+0.98%) was the sole significant winner, while Indonesia (-1.38%), Malaysia (-0.96%) were outliers to the downside among generally small red numbers across the region. In Europe, markets are also leaning to the downside on somewhat larger moves. The FTSE (-0.51%), DAX (-0.15%), and CAC (-0.49%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.05% open and the QQQ is implying a slightly stronger +0.27% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. However, Fed member Williams speaks at 9 am. There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

10-year bond yields are down in premarket, but holding 1.51%. This came after losses in Asia over data released showed that May Chinese industial profits were down both from April and a year earlier. As the quarter comes to an end Wednesday, markets may also be experiencing some rebalancing and window dressing as funds prepare for their Q2 statements. The bulls have the trends in their favor, but the DIA still faces resistance overhead and the other two major indices seem hesitant to rip higher. So, be cautious and watch for signs of rotation or reversal.

The odds favor following the trend, but also respecting both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TLRY, IT, RKT, FSLY, NNOX, NVDA, LEN, PSA, QCOM, PLUG, HD, ALXN, XOM, NOK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Infrastructure Deal and Bank Payouts

June 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw another gap higher, but this time the DIA followed-through before grinding sideways all afternoon. Meanwhile the SPY essentially waffled in a tight range after he gap, but the QQQ ran up and then fell back. This left the QQQ at another all-time high close, but also printing a Shooting Star type candle. The SPY printed an indecisive Doji, missing another all-time high by cents. And the DIA put in a nice bullish candle as it plays catch-up to the other major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.60%, DIA gained 0.94%, and QQQ gained 0.62%. The VXX fell almost 2% to 29.71 and T2122 jumped back up into the overbought territory at 81.18. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.494% and Oil (WTI) gain about a quarter percent to $73.29.

During the afternoon, President Biden and a bipartisan group of Senators announced they had reached a deal on an infrastructure initiative. However, this does not mean the bill has passed the full Senate yet. Interestingly, the bill apparently will only include $579 billion in new spending (not much over half of the levels that had been floated as “the best offer” by either side). So, that has to be called a win for Senate Republicans. In addition, the deal-making group has not yet agreed on how to pay for the bill (the GOP says they will not go along with any tax changes that would be a rollback of the 2017 tax cuts). Nonetheless, the bill calls for $109 billion to go into roads, $66 billion to go into rail, $49 billion to go into public transport, and $15 billion to go into electric vehicle infrastructure and vehicles. Other winners in the plan were $73 billion into electric infrastructure, $65 billion for broadband, and $55 billion into fresh water. You can probably guess which industry’s stocks will gain on that spending (steel, construction, telecom, etc.).

After the close, and as expected, the Fed said all 23 banks passed their 2021 stress test. The test scenario tested a “severe global recession,” which is exactly what the banks had experienced last year…so the banks passing was a foregone conclusion. Most analysts expect this announcement will be followed by a spate of dividend increases and buyback programs by most of the major banks.

In stock news, RAD plummeted during the day on mixed earnings and weak guidance as well as the CEO saying she was only “cautiously optimistic” the company would not be hurt by another round of Covid lockdowns. CCL also fell during the day after they announced they do not anticipate their full fleet sailing before next Spring. On the other side, MSFT closed above a $2 trillion valuation for the first time on the day they also announced a new version of the Windows operating system. After the close, NKE posted beats on both the top and bottom lines. FDX also posted a beat on both lines. Finally, SPCE has been given approval by the FAA to fly passengers to space.

Overnight, Asian markets were solidly green across the board. Shenzhen (+1.48%), Hong Kong (+1.40%), and Shanghai (+1.15%) led the advancers. However, the gains were wide-spread. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest moves so far Friday. The FTSE (+0.12%), DAX (-0.13%), and CAC (-0.07%) show the spread. However, smaller exchanges are more varied with Sweden and Finland up over 1% at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another green open. The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.13% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes May PCE Price Index and May Personal Spending (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to KMX and PAYX before the open. There are no reports scheduled after the close.

With the premarkets up, it looks like the bulls are intent on finishing off the best week since April. However, the DIA still faces overhead resistance, the SPY has not yet completely broken out, and QQQ looked a little tired and indecisive on Thursday. So, remember this is Friday, which means payday, and also that a weekend news cycle lays ahead. It is time to consider taking profits, hedging, or at least moving stops. The fear of inflation (and Fed tightening) still lurk out there in the market.

Follow your trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. The odds favor following the trend, but also respecting both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WLL, DGII, EFX, SENS, TMUS, FSLY, LABU, QCOM, AMD, BA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching