Good morning everyone.
A wild Monday morning in store for the market as it reacts to the news that the FBI finished its review and the director informed congress that his July decision stands. The Dow futures are suggesting a big gap up at the open of more than 200 points, however, when you looks at the charts you will see nothing has changed and the downtrend continues to be in effect.
The morning gap will do us no good unless there is follow-through buying after the open. It is possible we could see the market simply chop around near that opening range because we still have the election to deal with tomorrow and the polls have it so close that anything could happen. It is also not out of the realm of possibilities there is selling into the morning gap move slowly and plan carefully if you do decide to trade.
As for me, I’m very content to continue sitting on the sideline and waiting to see how the market reacts after the election. I’m also happy to be sitting mostly in cash while I wait.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone.
It’s Friday, and I for one am so glad the last weekend before the election is here. Let’s cross our fingers and hope we can return to some normal market price action once the election is behind us.
Today we have the Employment Situation number and International Trade report at 8:30 eastern. Both numbers have the ability to move the market under normal circumstances but with the election pending, normal seems nearly impossible to achieve. Currently, the Futures are pointing to a slightly bearish open but after the economic reports, anything is possible. With the SPY, IWM, and DIA so very close to the 200-day average we should not be surprised to see price move that direction and even pass through before a relief bounce occurs. I do however think the charts are telling us a relief bounce is near and possibly even today it could occur.
With it being Friday and just before the election I doubt very much there will be any new trades today but never say never. If you have been looking for a great day to take off this may be your opportunity. I’m confident better trading on the way soon. Have a fantastic weekend everyone.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone.
As the major indexes draw nearer the 200-day moving average greater is the probability price will be drawn right down to it. However, there is always the possibility of a very short-term oversold bounce that could occur prior to the 200 test. The futures are slightly bullish this morning but I sure wouldn’t believe the selling is over just yet.
We are now 5-day to the election and the jittery market is trying to deal with changing polls and the reality that it may be too close to call. We have several economic reports this morning and although they do have the potential to move the market it’s likely the election will trump everything else. No pun intended. Keep in mind we have the big employment situation number Friday morning so expect light volumes after the morning rush.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone.
Yesterday we finally saw the bears step and give the market a push on election fears. As a matter a fact it seems everywhere we look there seem to be uncertainty and there is little that the market dislikes more.
Today at 10 eastern we get some Oil numbers that lately can move the market around but the big news of the day will be the FOMC at 2 PM eastern time. I think a .25 basis point increase in December has already been baked into the cake but if the FOMC surprises the market we will likely see a very big reaction. Until the release, however, there will likely be very light volume accompanied by choppy price action. As if we haven’t already had our fill of chop!!
I think we need to continue to stay small and remain cautious. Yesterday was a big move but I don’t think we have seen the full measure of it’s potential just yet. The good new is we seem to be getting closer to shaking loose of this 2-month long range. No matter which direction it decides it will be a welcome change. So hang in there, better trading is on the way.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone.
During the evening we had some good number out of Asian markets that popped the Dow futures up about 60 points but as we get closer to the open the futures are sliding back toward a flat open.
Today we have several economic numbers before the open with the biggest being the ISM number that won’t be released until 10 AM eastern. Although we have a lot of earnings today it’s unlikely we will see much movement from the reports. The FOMC meeting begins today and as we all know the market tends to trade lightly in a tight range as it waits for the announcement. The Employment Situation number on Friday is another report that normally keeps the market subdued until it’s release.
Last but not least is the election just 7 days away making the market very apprehensive particularly due to the Clinton email scandal bubbling to the surface once again.
Once again I will most likely sit on hands while all this uncertainty unfolds. I understand how hard it is to simply continue to wait but when we have no edge it’s the best thing we can do to protect our capital.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Friday the market was dealt a surprise when the head of the FBI reopened the Clinton E-mail scandal case due to new evidence. Who knows what will come of it but the market hates this kind of uncertainty and may further complicate this very challenging market. With the election now only 8 days way and the market locked into a very tight range truly anything is possible. As a result, I highly doubt I will be doing much trading until the election is over and the market picks a direction.
I understand this has been very frustrating but why risk our money when chop rules the market. I believe big moves are coming soon so will spend my time preparing rather than fighting news driven emotionally charged chop where I have no edge. There are times when the best position is a cash position and personally I think that time is now. If you disagree that’s okay with me and I wish you success.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Well, my hopes for a big tech pop fell flat on its face just a few seconds after the market closed yesterday and AMZN reported a earnings miss. GOOG quickly followed with a report that beat but failed to inspire a move to offset AMZN. Consequently, we remain stuck in the very narrow range that has plagued the market for 2 months now.
The Dow futures were basically flat at about 5 AM and although we are getting a little fluff up push in the Pre-Market action I think we can expect more chop today.
The GDP number this morning has the potential of moving the market this morning but unless it is a big surprise I wouldn’t want to hold my breath that it will do much of anything. There are more than 100 earnings being reported today but again I think it to be unlikely they will generate adequate energy to break the support or resistance log jams.
If you can, today would a very good day to turn off the computer and go do something productive or fun rather than wasting a Friday watching chop. It will get better I’m confident of that but likely not until we get past the election.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Today is a huge day for earnings with 450 companies reporting. After the close, we get a double whammy with 2 of the huge tech giants reporting. AMZN and GOOG can have the power to move the market in either direction. Options are suggesting that both companies have the potential of huge moves today. If they both happen to be positive moves we could finally see resistance tested, on the other hand, if they were to both disappoint support cold be broken. Al we can really do is watch, wait and hope for the best.
Next week is yet another big week of earnings reports so the drama of earnings is far from over. Speaking of drama, with only 13 days left to the election we can expect the candidates to do and say almost anything to get a vote. That, of course, can and will likely continue to be the driving force keeping the market range bound and choppy. Personally, I see this election as a national embarrassment. No matter who wins we all lose. How the market will react is anyone’s guess but It will react with some sort of knee jerk reaction. Keep that in mind as you plan your portfolio holdings over the next couple weeks.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
I’m sorry that there was no Morning Video yesterday and that I had to cancel the RWO room. Trust me I did everything I could to get back online as soon as possible but when the city decides to dig right through a major internet trunk line there is only so much that can be done.
Sadly yesterday did nothing but continue to confirm that the current downtrend is still valid. This morning we are seeing that bearishness gap the market lower for yet another test of support. Let’s hope it holds because it doesn’t we could see some very rapid selling as stop loss orders begin to trip.
Thus far earnings have done nothing to break us out of this downtrend, however, with more than 200 companies reporting today and 450 tomorrow anything is possible. Please make sure you are checking when a company reports before jumping into anything.
We have some big new items this morning that could move the market but I think the one to keep any eye on is the report on oil. A surprise build in surplus would likely send oil lower and pull the overall market down as well.
I know I sound like a broken record but please use caution when trading. A very big price move is possible at any time and you don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of it.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
It’s a beautiful Monday morning the futures are suggesting a 70 plus point gap up the open. The huge merger deal between At&T and Time Warner is the reason for the excitement this morning but hey I welcome anything that might break us out of this chop.
This week we really blast into earnings with nearly 500 reporting on Thursday alone. Let’s hope they are better then what we have seen so far this quarter which has been lackluster at best.
There are 4 Fed speakers flapping their lips today which could mean some market nervousness if they lean hawkish. Another concern is that oil futures are currently down slightly and may dampen the bullish morning pop.
Although I am encouraged in the positive open we much keep in mind that the current downtrend must be defeated as well as the upper resistance level before gaining confidence in a direction. There is still a lot of work to be done.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
