Good Morning friends!
I will spare details but need to let everyone know that I will not be able to do a video today or open RWO. The good news is after a really rough night I think I’ve finally started to turn the corner. I simply need to rest toady and I believe I will be back on my feet Friday.
The market witnessed a good deal of volatility yesterday afternoon in reaction to the Trump press conference but managed to close the day with bulls in control. the bullish did not transfer around the world with Asian and Euro markets all selling off. As a consequence, the futures are suggesting a lower open. A little selling in the morning doesn’t bother me because we are still in consolidation zone but coupling that to the intra-day volatility change and caution lights begin to light up in my head. It may be time reduce holdings a become extra watchful for clues that the bears may be gaining an edge.
BMY really let us down yesterday and I think it would be best to close the position altogether. We will still maintain a small profit on the overall trade due to the profits on the short strike but depending on your commission it may be a wash.
MSFT is looking good so as of now I would continue to hold this position.
Today there will be a flurry of news with Fed speakers and congressional hearings on some of the Trump appointees. Congress has the potential for soap-opera style drama during such events which can, of course, create emotional market responses. Also keep in mind that several of the big banks will begin reporting Friday morning. Obviously, banks have enjoyed sharp rallies after the Trump election. Most are suggesting we will see substantial growth in bank earnings last quarter but the question on everyone’s mind is will there enough improvement to justify the current prices.
Anything is possible so it’s very important to simply follow the charts, avoiding prediction and personal biases. I know there are many thinking the market is way overbought and that may be true but all we will need is good earnings reports to push the markets even higher. All that said, be a little cautious today, protect your positions, take profits and trade based on the price action of the chart.
Again, there is no video attached today and the RWO trading will be closed again today. Very sorry for the inconvenience. I promise I make it up to you!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Top of the morning friends. It’s hard to believe it’s already humpday. Yesterday the bullish push produced some very nice gains for me but it’s a shame they were not able to hold on to the daily highs. At the end of the day the bears were gaining control but until support is breached I’m not going to worry about it. And though I’m not going to worry about I’m going to plan to take profits on trades faster than normal. A stock that gaps up or down in my trade direction will be considered a gift and I will quickly ring the register. Keep that in mind as we continue to chop in this range.
We have an oil status report this morning at 10:30 eastern and a Fed speaker in the early afternoon. Oil futures are currently pointing higher but keep in mind a surprise build in supply will not only affect oil but also the market as a whole. A surprise decline in supply, on the other hand, could prove to be bullish overall.
RWO room will be open today but I will have to take it slow. Between the fits of coughing and a weak voice it may have several starts and stops but I will muddle through the best I can.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to View the Morning Video
Good Morning and sorry I was not able to get anything out prior to the open. Although I was in the hospital overnight I am feeling much better and should be back on my feet tomorrow.
I am severally handicapped this morning using an iPad to look at charts for there are a few things that I wanted to share. First, I sold my FCX position on the gap up this morning, I also sold my SQ position collecting nice profits on both. If you have not sold the short calls in MSFT I suggest doing so today. If you have not sold the BMY short calls that’s okay but just know that I have suggested that they should be sold. We will be waiting for both stocks to get a move higher to sell additional calls.
A few positions that you may want to consider; PBR is looking really good after breaking the wedge and pulling back. Consider the APR 10 calls because of the great price and nice open interest.
BABA gaped up to much to chase so we will have to wait on it.
NFLX broke out and is holding nicely keep a close eye on it for an entry. Earnings will be coming soon but often stocks like this will rally toward the earnings date.
AIG may be setting up keep a close eye on it.
CVS is set up. It reports on 2/9/17. The April 75 calls are okay but the better volume is in in the May 75 contracts but either should work. If you want to lower the cost of the trade consider selling the April 90 strikes for a debit spread. Just keep in mind the earnings date.
I will post this to the website but if someone could please post in the room that I had sent this out that would be very helpful. Thank You! FYI, There is no video attached.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Good morning!
Last Friday I felt like I was coming down with a cold and by Saturday morning it hit me really hard. This morning I’m still really sick and due to all the coughing I have no voice. Because of that, there will be no video attached and I will have to cancel the RWO room today. I will, however, be around all day motoring trades and looking for new entries. Please understand any new entries will have no video but I will put together a text version. Sorry for the inconvenience I don’t expect ti to last long.
This morning the Dow futures are pointing to a slightly bearish open and I think it is time to watch closely for the potential of a rollover. Let me be clear, I am not expecting a rollover but the failure to breakthrough 20K makes me want to watch closely for signs that the bears are taking over. Let’s keep in mind that the QQQ is looking very strong so it’s not the time to run for the doors just yet.
We have a couple Fed speakers today and some bond auctions but other than that the economic calendar is quiet and pretty much remains so until Friday when we have several big reports.
The positions in BMY and MSFT are both in very good shape. With earnings approaching I will be working out plans on how we will handle this positions this week. As you know I hold several stock positions holding modest gains a couple positions holding modest losses. Such is the nature of a consolidating market if it could breakout I would likely have some very nice profits but if it breaks down I will need to capture some small gains and avoid letting the losers get out of hand. As always the first and foremost thing to do is manage the positions that you are in!
There is no video attached.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Good morning and Happy Friday!
This morning’ market is all the Employment Situation report that will be out one hour before the market opens putting us retail traders at a major disadvantage. After the number, the market will react and of course, there is really nothing we can do about it. There seems to be a little concern that we will see a number softer than expected. The target is 178,000. I fit comes in higher expect the market to move up, however, a print lower than 150,000 would likely bring in the bears.
All we can do this morning is to manage the trades that we are in. The reaction to the number is out of our control but if we remain calm and follow our rules everything should work out just fine. We also have International Trade numbers and Factory Orders coming out this morning that could a small influence on market direction.
The next hurdle is that we have 4 Fed speakers today. I doubt we will hear anything new but as you know all one these folks has to do is suggest that they believe we need another interest rate hike soon and the market will react in about half a heartbeat so it would be wise to remain flexible, stay on your toes and be prepared to react is necessary.
Have an awesome day and a fantastic weekend!
Trade wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning RWO!
Yesterday’s bullishness had the market dreaming about Dow 20k again but the jobs numbers tossed a monkey wrench into the gears of advancement. We will likely see just a little bearishness this morning but I’m expecting the market to become very choppy this afternoon. Before the market open tomorrow we get the really big jobs number, the Employment Situation number and I suspect with the data this morning we will now see a pause as we wait for that number.
Be careful today and let the market settle before entering new risk.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning Traders!
It was encouraging to see the bull finally push back yesterday afternoon allowing prices to close mostly above support levels. However, I have to admit that I’m starting to become a little concerned that the bears are gaining some strength. I think the bulls had better get to work pretty soon or they will fully give control over to the bears for the short term.
Today we have the ADP report before the market opens but it would have to be a really big surprise to move the market. The big news today will be the FOMC minutes at 2 PM Eastern. I find it hard to believe that the market is in the dark on what the Fed members are thinking about with them out stumping all the time, but it is possible that the market goes into a low volume chop today as we wait for the report. After the report, we can normally expect a burst of volatility before settling into a direction.
Futures are once again suggesting a slightly bullish open but as always it would be a good idea not to chase. Lately, early pops have bee sold into so let’s give the market a little time to settle in before considering additional risk.
Have a profitable day.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning and Happy New Year!
It looks as if we are going to start off 2017 with a bang! Futures this morning and pushing sharply higher with the Dow futures suggesting a gap up of 150 points at the open. All of the folks that put on short positions last week will likely be squeezed out this morning creating even more upside pressure. The other possibility would be the cruelest of price patterns, the pop, and drop, so please don’t chase into the market this morning. Let’s give it a good 20 to 30 minutes for prices to stabilize before making a decision on new positions.
On the economic calendar, we have 3 reports. PMI, ISM, and constructions spending. The ISM number carries the most weight at 10 AM eastern. It would be a surprise if any of these numbers come in bad but always remember anything is possible.
I will as always, will stick with the trend until the trend breaks and with the bulls so happy this morning will continue looking for good entries to profit from upside moves.
I always love getting started with a new year of trading. We begin 2017, hopefully, a little wiser and better prepared. As the business owner, It’s our responsibility to step up, learn from our past mistakes and make the course corrections necessary to improve. As Albert Einstein said, “doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is insanity.” It’s all up to you! Will you reach out for success in 2017? One of our members Bob C posted this phrase, “it takes a lot of hard work to make easy money.” My wish is that we all take that phrase to heart. It’s a new year so dig in, step up and make 2017 your breakout year!
Trade wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning on the last trading day of 2016!
It would seem that we are going to begin the last trading day with a little bullishness at the open which is a bit surprising given the Russian sanctions that Obama delivered yesterday. I guess cooler heads will prevail and perhaps we can move into a new administration without the old creating a conflict on the way out.
In the economic news, the Chicago PMI number at 9:45 eastern but that is unlikely to inspire a surge of trading worth attention. Volumes will be extremely and expect choppy action this morning the will likely turn positively dead by the afternoon. The bond market will be closed at 2 PM eastern and I plan to be headed down the road on a short winter motorcycle ride at about the same time.
It has been a great year and I would like to thank you all for sharing it with me. I have great expectations for 2017 and think the trading will be fantastic. I want to wish everyone a fantastic weekend and Very Happy New Year!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning Friends!
Only 2 more trading days left for 2016 and I think we can expect the trading year to end with a low volume whimper. It is possible we get a surge of energy this morning due to 3 economic reports, international trade, jobless claims and Petroleum status report. If I were to bet the one most likely to have the power to move the market today it would be the report on the oil.
Yesterday was honestly a bit of a surprise to me but at the end of the day, there was really not much damage done, however, if there happens to be follow-through to the downside today with some energy then we would have to admit that the bears have taken at least short term control.
As always it is best to first manage the trades that you are in before considering any new positions. I don’t want to say never but it is unlikely that I will be making any new trades the rest of the year. Volumes are weak and will continue to weaken so I will reserve judgment on positions when volume return sometime mid next week.
Again I will say if you do plan to trade, consider smaller than normal positions and plan to take profits quickly because a low volume market can shift very quickly. Do some thinking about the year ahead and how you could make adjustments to improve your trading results. Planning time is never a waste of time.
Have a productive day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
