On Friday, markets again diverged at the open, but then got back in-sync. SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA opened 0.02% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.52%. After that open, SPY and QQQ chopped along sideways above that opening level and closed in the green. Meanwhile, after the flat open, DIA immediately traded sharply lower for 25 minutes. At that point, it started a steady bullish trend that brought it back above the prior close by 12:30 p.m. before joining SPY and QQQ in a sideways chop just into positive territory. This action gave us indecisive, white-bodied, Doji or small-body Spinning Top candle in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ were both Bullish Harami candles.  DIA also printed a new all-time high and both SPY and DIA closed at new all-time high closes.  This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+0.84%) and Consumer Cyclical (+0.82%) out in front, leading the market higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.40%) was the only sector in the red.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.38%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.66%.  VXX fell 2.36% to close at 51.21 and T2122 climbed a bit further, but remains in the bottom half of its overbought territory to close at 83.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 4.079% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.87% to close at $69.34 per barrel. So, the Bulls were in-charge pretty much all day on what was also an indecisive day.  NFLX (+11.09%) was among the leaders of this charge after its blowout earnings Thursday evening.  (For the week, SPY gained 0.86%, DIA gain 0.91%, and QQQ gained 0.22%.  This was the sixth-straight week of gains for all three major index ETFs.)

The major economic news scheduled for Friday was limited to Preliminary September Building Permits came in lower than expected at 1.428 million (compared to a forecast of 1.450 million and the August 1.470 million value). At the same time, Preliminary September Housing Starts were a little better than predicted at 1.354 million (versus a forecast of 1.350 million but down from August’s 1.361 million reading).  This was a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month. 

In Fed news, on Friday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic made the case for the FOMC being patient in its rate reductions.  Bostic said, “I’m not in a rush to get to neutral.” He continued, “I don’t want us to get to a place where inflation stalls out because we haven’t been restrictive for long enough, so I’m going to be patient.”  Bostic went on to say, “If the economy continues to evolve as it does — if inflation continues to fall, labor markets remain robust, and we still see positive production — we will be able to continue on the path back to neutral.”  He also said that he is expecting inflation (which is currently at 2.2% according to the Fed’s preferred measure) to get back to 2% by the end of 2025.  That being his belief, he said “that should be sort of the timetable for when we should get to neutral.” All this said, Bostic said he expects the Fed to deliver two quarter point cuts in the last two FOMC meetings of the year.  For what it’s worth, Bostic also said he has never expected a US recession, saying “I’ve always felt that there was enough momentum in this economy to absorb the restrictiveness of our policy and drive inflation back down to its 2% target. I’m grateful that that’s been playing out so well.”

In stock news, on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners (which has a 5% stake) is planning to pressure LW to explore a potential sale of the $10 billion French fry maker.  At the same time, USM announced it has agreed to sell some specific spectrum licenses to VZ for $1 billion.  Later, Reuters reported that the board of Japan’s Fuji Soft had agreed to continue to support a $3.72 billion buyout by KKR (despite having received a higher offer from BCSF).  At the same time, CNBC reported that STLA will close and sell its large vehicle testing facility in AZ by the end of the year. (The 4,000-acre facility was bought from F for $35 million in 2007.)  There are only 41 employees at the facility.  At the same time, SPR announced it was furloughing 700 workers for 21 days due to the ongoing strike at BA, which has eaten up their cash reserves and space for storing inventory ready for delivery to BA. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that SAVE reached an agreement with its credit card processor to extend its debt refinancing deadline two months to December 23.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CI has resumed merger talks with rival HUM. (The companies had abandoned those discussions in late 2023.) Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the union representing striking BA workers said it is again engaged negotiations with the company, with Acting Labor Sec. Su performing as the intermediary.  This is the first resumption of discussions since BA withdrew its last proposal and walked away from negotiations 10 days prior. Later, Reuters reported that T ratified agreements with the CWA union.  The contracts cover 23k employees across the Southeast and West of the US.  On Saturday, BA and the Machinists Union announced they had reached a tentative deal and the 33k striking union workers will vote on a package including a 35% raise over four years, a $7k signing bonus, and higher 401k company contributions.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, Reuters reported that “Big Tobacco” (PM, BTI, and JAPAF) are close to a $23.6 billion settlement of a long-running lawsuit in Canada.  (The suit, which the companies lost, alleged they had known of the cancer caused by smoking since the 1950s, but had hidden that fact and continued to market their products as safe.)   If approved by the court, the mediator proposed settlement would be the largest of its kind outside the US.  Later, the FDA placed a “partial hold” on a Phase 3 clinical trial of a BNTX lung cancer drug.  (The hold was due to “varying results” between different populations in the trial.)  At the same time, after consultation with the FDA, GILD announced it was voluntarily withdrawing its bladder cancer drug Trodelvy after the drug failed to meet the main goal of a trial. Later, the NHTSA verified news reports from Thursday, announcing it was investigating 2.4 million TSLA vehicles equipped with “Full Self-Driving” after four more reported collisions, including another fatality. 

Elsewhere, the FAA announced it will open a new safety review into BA as the result of an in-flight emergency in January.  (The probe is expected to take three months to complete.)  Later, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $360 million of RTX-made tactical missiles to Japan.  At the same time, a MA judge rejected a motion by META.  He ruled that META must face a lawsuit alleging the company purposefully deployed features designed to addict children and deceived the public about the mental health dangers of its social media platform to teenagers.  Later, a federal judge in CA granted GOOGL’s request to temporarily pause his order directing the company to overhaul its Android app store (Google Play Store) to give consumers more choice over how they download and pay for apps. The delay will allow time for the 9^th US Circuit Court of Appeals to consider GOOGL’s request for appeal.  At the same time, the SEC granted “accelerated approval” to 11 ETFs to list and trade options tied to the spot price of Bitcoin.  The ETFs will trade on the NYSE.  Meanwhile, a federal jury in Ca ruled WDC must pay $315.7 million for patent infringement to private company SPEX Technologies.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, GS released a report indicating that last week saw hedge funds buying tech stocks (chips and chipmaking equipment) at the fastest pace in five months. (GS is privy to this data since its Prime brokerage service is a primary services provider to hedge funds.) GS said this was the third straight week hedge funds were net buyers of these stocks.  Elsewhere, Chinese dronemaker DJI filed suit against the US Dept. of Defense, challenging its listing as a company working with the Chinese military (subject to import restrictions).  Meanwhile, CNBC reported Friday that Port of Los Angeles (the country’s fifth-largest port) is now experiencing the largest rail delays in more than two years. (Rail delays means the railroads are unable to keep up with the volume of inbound containers.  So, they containers stack up at the port.) The primary causes cited were increased volumes from shipping that was rerouted to LA when East Coast and Gulf Coast ports were expected to be striking, increased traffic from ships that had to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and increased volumes from holiday merchandise.  As of now, containers are waiting an average of nine days to leave the port via rail after unloading from ships.

In Middle East news, on Friday, following an investigation, the UN accused Israeli settlers from killing civilians and cutting down Palestinian olive groves in the occupied West Bank.  The Humanitarian Office of the UN called the 32 attacks “war-like” tactics. (Israel said it has suspended the officer in charge of the IDF in that area, pending its own internal investigation into allowing illegal settlers to commit violence under the protection of IDF forces.) On Saturday, Hezbollah fired 20 more rocket salvos into the north of Israel with IDF saying they were intercepted. Hezbollah also launched a single drone attack on PM Netanyahu’s “holiday home” (although the PM was not at that location). In retaliation, Israel pounded Beirut and Southern Lebanon as well as the Bekaa Valley (50 miles north of Beirut).  This included bombings of the Lebanese Christian-majority town of Jounieh. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks in Gaza killed at least another 35 people and IDF forces laid siege to three Gaza hospitals.  Israel also dropped leaflets saying Hamas would no longer be allowed to rule Gaza. On Sunday, Israel bombed a refugee building in Northern Gaza, kill another 100.  Then Sunday night and early Monday, Israeli PM Netanyahu called a meeting of his top aides to discuss their next strike on Iran. For now, the oil markets still seem as much concerned with Chinese demand concerns more than disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies. However, the preparations for Israel’s strike on Iran may change that balance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six green and six red exchanges. Shenzhen (+1.09%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.57%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much more or a red hue with 13 of the 14 bourses below break-even at midday.  The CAC (-0.95%), DAX (-0.95%), and FTSE (-0.25%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the week.  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.60% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have spiked to 4.136% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.17% to $70.72 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September US Leading Economic Indicators Index (10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (1 p.m.) and Daly (5:40 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to KSPI and LU. Then, after the close, ARE, BOKF, LOGI, MEDP, NUE, SAP, SIGI, TFII, WRB, WTFC, and ZION report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get API Weekly Cride Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed member Harker.  Then Wednesday, September Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Beige Book.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.  On Thursday, we get September Building Permits, Weekly initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Oct. S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary Oct. S&P Services PMI, Preliminary Oct. Composite PMI, Sept. New Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary Sept. Core Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Sept. Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from MMM, AOS, DHR, FI, FCX, GE, GM, GPC, HRI, IPG, IVZ, KMB, LMT, MCO, NSC, PCAR, PNR, PM, PII, PHM, DGX, RTX, SHW, VZ, AGR, BKR, CNI, CSGP, EWBC, ENVA, MTDR, NBR, PKG, PFSI, RRC, RHI, STX, LRN, TXN, VMI, VLRS, and WFRD.  Then Wednesday, APH, T, AVY, BA, BSX, CME, KO, CSTM, DB, EVR, GEV, GD, HLT, KBR, LII, LAD, COOP, EDU, NEE, NTRS, ODFL, BPOP, PRG, ROP, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TRU, TNL, UNF, VRT, WAB, WSO, WGO, ALGN, AMP, ASGN, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHDN, CYH, FAF, GL, GGG, ICLR, IBM, KALU, KNX, LRCX, LVS, MAT, MOH, NEM, ORLY, OII, PTEN, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, TMUS, TER, TSLA, TYL, URI, VLTO, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, ALLE, AAL, AIT, AMBP, BFH, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, DAR, COV, DOW, DTE, EQNR, EEFT, FCFS, FSV, FCN, GTX, HOG, HAS, HON, KDP, KKR, LH, LEA, LTH, LKQ, MSM, NDAQ, NOC, ORI, POOL, RDUS, RS, RCI, R, SPGI, SAH, LUV, TAL, FTI, TECK, TXT, TSCO, TPH, UNP, UPS, VLO, VC, WST, WEX, ATR, AJG, SAM, BYD, COF, CSL, CINF, FIX, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EW, HIG, LHX, MTX, MHK, NOV, OLN, DOC, PFG, RMD, SKX, SSNC, TXRH, TROX, UHS, VALE, WDC, WY, and WKC. Finally, on Friday, AON, AN, AVTR, BAH, CNC, CL, GNTX, HCA, NYCB, NWL, POR, SAIA, and SNY report.

So far this morning, SDVKY beat on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, LU missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are in charge early in all three major index ETFs. QQQ gapped a bit lower while SPY and DIA opened roughly flat in the premarket. However, all three have sold off since that point and are printing larger black-body candles in the early session. QQQ is retesting its T-line (8ema) from above. Two of the three remain above their T-line (8ema) with the third testing a rising 8ema. So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bullish in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is still inside the lower edge of its overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with again today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (-1.23%) leads on price move lower. The biggest dog, NVDA (-0.64%) has traded a bit more than twice the next closest ticker in terms of dollar-volume traded.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Markets gapped and then ground on Thursday.  SPY gapped 0.64% higher, DIA gapped up 0.41%, and QQQ gapped up 1.11% at the open.  From there, SPY and QQQ sold off until just after 11 a.m., recross the opening gap in SPY and recrossing 85% of its gap by then.  At that point, those two major index ETFs ground sideways inside the gap.  For its part, DIA chopped sideways along its open all day.  This action gave us gap-up, black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed large, black, Marubozu candles that ended the day little-changed from Wednesday.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Doji type candle that also printed a new all-time high and closed at a new all-time high close. This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as slightly above-average volume in DIA.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green and the other half in the red with Utilities (-0.90%) well out in front leading the losers lower.  At the same time, on the other side, Financial Services (+0.40%) led a more tightly-grouped pack of gainers. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.01%, DIA gained 0.40%, and QQQ gained 0.07%. VXX fell 1.65% to close at 52.45 and T2122 dropped back to just inside the bottom edge of its overbought territory to close at 80.72.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to close at 4.098% while Oil (WTI) gained 0.45% to close at $70.71 per barrel.   So, the Bulls gapped markets higher on strong earnings and raised guidance from the world’s largest chipmaker, TSM (+9.77%), which had countered the previous day’s fear over that crucial sector sewn by ASML (+2.50%).

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which were down as expected at 241k (compared to a 241k forecast and the prior week’s 260k number).  In terms of on-going claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up, but not as much as feared at 1,867k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the prior week’s 1,858k reading).  At the same time, September Core Retail Sales were much stronger than expected at +0.5% (compared to a +0.1% forecast and August’s +0.2% value).  On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was also much stronger than predicted at 10.3 (versus a 4.2 forecast and well up from September’s 1.7 reading).  This was done with less labor as the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was down to -2.2 (compared to a September value of 10.7).  At the same time, the September Retail Sales (month-on-month) were up to +0.4% (versus the +0.3% forecast and well above August’s +0.1% value). Later, September Industrial Production fell 0.3% (compared to a projected fall of 0.1% and well below August’s 0.3% climb).  Later, August Business Inventories remained steady at 0.3% (versus a forecast and July reading of 0.3%).  However, August Retail Inventories climbed a tick to 0.5% (compared to a forecast and July value of 0.4%).  Later, the Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a drawdown of 2.191 million barrels (versus a forecasted inventory build of 1.800 million barrels and the previous week’s 5.810-million-barrel build).  At the close, the TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for August showed a decline to $111.40 billion (compared to the July $137.90 billion value).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed another reduction for the week at $7.039 trillion (versus last week’s $7.047 trillion).

In other news, on Thursday the Treasury Dept. released data that showed foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds surged to an all-time high in August after four straight months of increases.  The Treasury reported that foreigners owned $8.503 trillion US bonds in August, up 11.5% from one year earlier.  Japan remained the largest foreign holder of bonds at $1.129 trillion while China’s holdings fell to $774.6 billion.

After the close, OZK, CCK, ISRG, and NFLX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WAL beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, WDFC missed on both the top and bottom lines. 

In stock news, on Thursday SBGSY announced it had acquired controlling interest in private firm Motivair for $850 million. (Motivair makes liquid cooling technologies for data centers.)  At the same time, the Financial Time reported that UBER has explored the idea of making a $20 billion offer to acquire EXPE.  Later, NBRNF was acquired by private firm Bidco for $248.5 million.  At the same time, META announced it partnered with private studio Blumhouse Productions to test its generative AI for video creation. At the same time, AMZN announced it was dipping a toe into the news market for Prime Video as it has hired NBC anchor Brian Williams to lead its coverage of the US election day.  (This is noteworthy because Prime already offers a number of news channels such as CMCSA’s NBC, DIS’s ABC, and CNN.)   Later, Reuters reported that BP is considering selling a minority stake in its offshore wind business. (This is reportedly another move by CEO Auchincloss to reduce the company’s renewables exposure as he was brought in to refocus on fossil fuels.) 

Elsewhere, TSLA tried to rebound from the embarrassment of last week’s Optimus robot prototype show (which was later acknowledged to just be radio-controlled robots).  Thursday, TSLA released a less than 90 second video (with numerous jump cuts) purporting to show an Optimus prototype navigating by itself on a simulated simplistic factory environment. Later, ZUO announced it had agreed to be acquired by the Singapore Wealth Fund and buyout form Silver Lake in a deal valued at $1.7 billion ($10/share).  At the same time, PPG announced it will lay off 1,800 employees across the US and Europe as well as close some plants.  PPG said this was part of reducing structural costs in Europe.  Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that META has fired around two dozen employees from its Los Angeles office for misusing their company meal allowances for items like laundry detergent and acne treatment pads.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued an order allowing LNG to move liquified natural gas from its Corpus Christi storage facilities onto tankers. (Having cleared this key hurdle, LNG expects to have the plant producing export gas by year end.)  Later, and somewhat oddly, GM announced it “fully supports” the Mexican government’s plans to strengthen supply chains by bringing production to Mexico rather than importing components.  GM did not comment when asked to comment on speculation about its future plans in Mexico.  At the same time, the FCC proposed a $147k fine for DIS’s ESPN network for violating broadcast rules by broadcasting emergency alert tones during promotional segments in the 2023-2024 NBA basketball season.  Later, two consumer groups and two labor unions urged the FCC to block the acquisition of CTLC by NVO in a $16.5 billion deal.  (The groups claim that deal would threaten competition in the weight loss drugs and cutting-edge gene therapies markets.) 

Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Energy approved a total of nearly $3 billion in conditional loan guarantees for two sustainable aviation fuel projects from CLMT and GEVO.  Later, Reuters reported exclusively that President Biden had directed the Commerce Dept., Dept. of Defense, and State Dept. will ease export restrictions on some satellite and spacecraft-related products to US allies.  This includes technologies made by LMT, LHX, and BA.  At the same time, a suit has been filed against ADM alleging the company failed to maintain and test safety systems on grain equipment for years, resulting in an explosion and the immolation of a worker last year.  Later, the FTC has opened an investigation into DE over the company’s repair policies and restrictions the company puts on hardware and software to prevent customers from repairing their purchased products.  (DE already faces antitrust lawsuits over the same issue in multiple states.)

In miscellaneous news, NOAA released an updated forecast calling for a warmer and drier-than-normal winter in the south and central Great Plains.  This effect of La Nina is expected to worsen the drought across the plains, hitting the US’s top wheat-producing area and impacting wheat yields.  (52% of US wheat-producing areas are currently in a drought condition, compared to 44% just two weeks ago.)  However, a wetter than normal condition is forecast for the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions this winter.  Elsewhere, the CA state Dept. of Food and Ag reported that cattle are dying from bird flu as they are being stressed by heat (at least six days of 95-plus-degree temperatures so far in October).  CA reported that herds are now seeing 15%-20% mortality rates (compared to 2% in other states).

In Middle East news, on Thursday, Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon continued. The Israeli government also confirmed that it had, in fact, killed the Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday.  (An IDF unit was operating in Gaza when it stumbled into a 3-man Hamas ground unit. In the firefight that resulted, Israel killed the other two Hamas militants and seeing the severely injured Sinwar was still alive, fired another tank shell, which killed him. After the attack, they recognized Sinwar and collected his body for identification.  He was identified by dental records, which Israel had because he had previously spent 23 years in Israeli prison before being released in a prisoner exchange in 2011.) Sinwar had been the subject or a ton of intelligence work and targeted attacks for over a year and had always been thought to be in tunnels hiding with hostages.  However, it turns out he had actually been fighting as a regular Hamas fighter all along.  While many hope this offers an opportunity to end the Israeli bombing and invasion of Gaza, Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fighting will continue. In addition, Hamas has already named a replacement for Sinwar. Elsewhere, the US confirmed B2 bombing of five weapon storage targets in areas controlled by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with just three of 12 exchanges below break-even.  Shenzhen (+4.71%), Hong Kong (+3.61%), Shanghai (+2.91%), and Taiwan (+1.88%) paced the gains.  Australian (-0.87%) and South Korea (-0.59%) led the losses.  In Europe, we see a more mixed picture with five of 14 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (+0.58%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTSE (-0.27%) lead the region and are typical of the early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but generally green start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.49% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.108% and Oil (WTI) is down four-tenths of a percent to $70.40 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (9:30 a.m.), Fed member Kashkari (10 a.m.), Fed Governor Waller (12:10 p.m.), and Fed member Bostic again (12:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB.  Then, after the close, there are not reports scheduled.

So far this morning, VLVLY (Volvo), ALLY, CMA, FITB, and RF all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AXP, PG, and SLB missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, ALV missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In late-breaking news, GOOGL announced they had replaced the head of their search and ads unit leader (Raghaven) with longtime Google employee Nick Fox.  GOOGL’s statement said that Raghaven will move to the role of Chief Technologist.  (It was unclear if this was a new position or if he was replacing someone else.)  Elsewhere, CVS replaced their CEO Lynch with longtime executive David Joyner, effective immediately.  Meanwhile, the Chinese rally may be explained by its release of “better-than-expected” GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year for Q3, where the consensus analyst estimate had been 4.5%. (Still, this was still the slowest growth in six quarters.) The tell may be that Beijing almost immediately announced new stimulus that propped up the Chinese markets.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in charge again in the SPY and QQQ as they both gapped higher to start the premarket and have followed-through with white-body candles. For its part, DIA is down a bit after opening the early session higher and then trading indecisively but lower. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bullish in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is still at the lower edge of its overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with again today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning. NFLX (+6.74%) leads on price move after blow-out earnings last night. The biggest dog, NVDA (+0.93%) has traded a bit more than twice the next closest ticker in terms of dollar-volume traded. Finally, remember its Friday and options expiration Friday at that. So prepare your account for the day and weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday markets diverged at the opening bell.  SPY opened flat, DIA opened 0.06% lower, and QQQ opened 0.08% higher. From there, SPY and DIA rallied in a slow and steady manner all day.  Meanwhile, QQQ sold off at the open, chopping sideways until noon and then began a slow, steady rally the rest of the day. All three modestly pulled back at the end of the session. This action printed a white-bodied, Bull Harami with small wicks on both ends in the SPY.  At the same time, DIA gave us a Bull Engulfing candle that bounced up off its T-line (8ema).  It should also be noted that DIA ended within 15 cents of another all-time high close.  For its part, QQQ printed a Doji that retested its T-line and closed just a few pennies below that average.  This all happened on below-average volume in the DIA and well-below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.01%) and Healthcare (+1.93%) way out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+0.03%) and Technology (+0.16%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA gained 0.73%, and QQQ gained 0.01%. VXX fell 0.97% to close at 53.33 and T2122 spiked back up into the top end of the overbought territory to end the day at 95.22.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell again to 4.014% while Oil (WTI) was flat (-0.07%) to close at $70.53 per barrel.   So, the Bulls partially bounced back from Tuesday’s down day in the SPY and DIA were in control all day Tuesday.  QQQ was the laggard as Technology dragged on the market, but was held up by outlier NVDA (+3.13%) that traded 3.5 times more dollar-volume than any other QQQ ticker.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included September Export Price Index, which came in lower than expected at -0.7% (compared to a forecast of -0.4% but not down as much as August’s -0.9%).  At the same time, the September Import Index was a tick lower than predicted at -0.4% (versus a -0.3% forecast and down more than August’s -0.2% reading).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Stocks showed an unexpected drawdown of 1.580 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 3.200-million-barrel inventory build and far below the prior week’s 10.900-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, after the close, the Cleveland Fed issued a report saying that rent inflation will continue to put pressure on consumers for some time.  The report said, “Our baseline forecast implies that (CPI) rent inflation will remain above its pre-pandemic norm of about 3.5% until mid-2026.”  The report went on to cite a “notably wider” gap between new lease inflation and existing lease rollover increases.  The report said, “Our estimated rent gap in September 2024 is just under 5.5%, suggesting that there remains a substantial amount of potential rent inflation to be passed through to continuing tenants.” (Prior to the pandemic, that gap stood at 1%.) 

After the close, CCI, DFS, EFX, SNV, STLD, and UNB all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. At the same time, AA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CSX, KMI, LBRT, and PPG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, AMZN announced its first color version of its Kindle e-reader after years of development.  AMZN priced the device at $280, which is in the $149 – $330 range of similar devices from other manufacturers.  At the same time, CZZ Chairman Ometto was quoted in a published interview saying that the company was not looking to sell its stake in VALE in the short-term.  (This contradicts a Bloomberg report from late last month, which said the company was interested in selling its VALE stake.)  Later, AMZN announced it signed three agreements with private companies for building small modular nuclear reactors to power the AMZN datacenters. (Under the deals, AMZN has the right to buy up to eight 80 MW reactors, which would be enough to power 770k homes.)  At the same time, BTAFF announced a new line of synthetic nicotine pouches as a smoking alternative under the existing Velo product line. Later, GM announced it will contribute $625 million to a joint-venture with LAC with a goal of developing lithium mines in Thacker Pass, NV.  (The goal is to reduce reliance on Chinese lithium sources.)  GM will have 38% ownership of the venture. 

Elsewhere, EADSY (Airbus) announced it will cut 2,500 jobs in its Defense and Space division after months of losses. (Negotiations with unions and countries throughout Europe are underway to determine which jobs will be cut and from what locations.) Later, BB told an investor conference that it was exploring options for its Cyclance unit. (Cyclance uses machine learning to preempt cybersecurity breaches.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that CMCSA-owned NBC Universal will add regional sports broadcasts to tie Peacock streaming service in early 2025.  Later, AMX announced it plans to push the rollout of 5G service across Mexico and Latin America in 2025 as the main goal of its $7 billion capital expenditure forecast for the next year.  After the close, LCID announced it now anticipates reporting a bigger-than-expected loss for Q3 when the report is released November 11.  LCID simultaneously announced a 262 million pubic offering of new shares.  In addition, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund said it would purchase 374.7 million shares, giving it 59% ownership of LCID.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the FDA placed a trial for NVAX’s experimental COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine on hold.  (The hold was due to a report of nerve damage in a patient in an earlier, mid-stage trial.)  NVAX closed down 19.44% on the news. At the same time, the Dept. of Energy issued a conditional commitment for a loan of $670.6 million to ASPN for a plant to produce thermal barriers used in electric vehicle batteries. Later, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 54k hybrid crossover SUVs due to a brake pedal that can disengage and stop working. (Just under half those vehicles were sold in North America.) At the same time, the FTC adopted its final rule requiring businesses to make it as easy to cancel subscriptions and memberships as it was to sign up.

Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Transportation tentatively awarded five new daily round-trip flights from Washington Reagan National to AAL, ALK, DAL, UAL, and LUV. The slots are subject to a two-week public comment period and one-week response period prior to the decision becoming final. After hours, Reuters reported that RTX has agreed to pay $959 million to resolve federal charges of defrauding the US Dept. of Defense and bribing a Qatrar official. The company entered into two deferred prosecution agreements (one in Boston and one in Brooklyn) to avoid criminal charges.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the US Customs and Border Protection agency has halted the import of some DJI drones from China.  (Reportedly, the halt came in response to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.)  Later, the US Supreme Court declined to put a hold on EPA rules targeting carbon pollution from coal-fired and gas-fired power plants.  (The suit seeking to block the EPA rules had been brought by WV and 25, mostly GOP, states.)  The suit can continue in lower courts, but the enforcement can proceed at least until that case is decided.

In Middle East news, on Wednesday, Israel defied calls for a cease-fire and pressure to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and Lebanon by re-intensifying its bombing attacks on Beirut.  In the process, the IDF took out a municipal building and aid distribution center killing the entirety of one suburb’s administration (Mayor, three key deputies, and several underlings) which had been meeting to plan the deliveries of a shipment of food aid. (That strike alone killed 16 people and wounded another 60.)  This was part of more than 130 IDF attacks on Beirut and southern Lebanon on the day.  For its part, the Israel said Hezbollah had fired 90 rockets at northern Israel, but there had been no casualties or significant damage.  Meanwhile, and most importantly to markets, CNN reported that multiple sources now tell it that the Israeli response to Iran’s recent 180 missile barrage is ready. (It’s worth noting Iran’s missile attack on Israel did no real damage and caused no casualties.)  CNN also says that US officials expect Israel to launch that retaliatory strike (to Iran’s own retaliation for Israeli bombings in Iran) prior to the US election.  (This makes sense when you realize what Israeli PM Netanyahu prefers from the US election.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Shanghai (-1.05%), Hong Kong (-1.02%), and India (-0.89%) paced the losses while New Zealand (+1.01%), Singapore (+0.96%), and Australia (+0.86%) led the gainers.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.19%), DAX (+0.80%), and FTSE (+0.42%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move higher to start the day.  The laggard DIA implies a +0.14% open, SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and QQQ implies a +0.80% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.036% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter percent to $70.57 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, and September Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), August Business Inventories and August Retail Inventories (bot hat 10 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, and WIT.  Then, after the close, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

So far this morning, BX, CBSH, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, TSM, TVBI, TRV, and TFC all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  (BX crushed on revenue growth by more than 44%.  In addition, the worlds largest chipmaker, TSM, crushed with 36% revenue growth and 11.5% earnings growth.  Regional bank TCBI reported a whopping 67% beat on earnings.)  Meanwhile, MMC, NOK, and SNA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ELV beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  However, CMC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In late-breaking news, TSM crushed in its Q3 report and raised guidance.  Since they are the world’s largest, and most cutting-edge chipmaker, this is reassuring markets that the tech market demand has not been hurt.  (That dour outlook on chips and by extension tech came from Tuesday’s terrible ASML report.)  It is worth noting that TSM’s largest customers are NVDA, AMD, AAPL (phone, tablet, and computer), INTC, and QCOM.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in charge again ahead of morning data. SPY and QQQ both gapped higher while DIA opened flat to start the premarket. From there, all three have printed white-body candles so far in the early session, with DIA the smallest of those bodies. SPY is now trading within pennies of another all-time high. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bullish in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is back in (the top of) its overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with again today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+3.03%) is back to leading that pack in terms of both price move and dollar-volume traded. (It is also worth noting that NVDA has traded 5.5 times as mush stock as the next-closest big dog, TSLA (+0.25%), on the strength of the TSM earnings.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the open Tuesday.  SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA gapped down 0.36%, and QQQ opened 0.08% higher.  From there, SPY and QQQ ground sideways in a very tight range for 35 minutes before selling off sharply for 30 minutes and then moving sideways again until a little after 1 p.m.  From there, those two broader index ETFs sold off again, just much more slowly, for the rest of the day.  For its part, after its gap lower, DIA chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m. and then slowly sold off further all afternoon.  This action gave us large black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  (QQQ also retested and crossed below its T-line, 8ema.)  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a gap down, black-bodied candle with modest lower wick and a bit larger upper wick.  This happened on average volume in the DIA, slightly-below-average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.91%) way, way out in front leading the market lower as fears over an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran faded temporarily.  (The thinking is apparently that Israel would wait on a US THAAD missile system to be shipped, installed, and brought on-line by 100 US troops before attacking Iran.)  On the other side, Communications Services (+0.60%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.78%, DIA lost 0.78%, and QQQ lost 1.34%. VXX gained 3.26% to close at 53.85 and T2122 fell out of its overbought territory to end in the top of its mid-range, closing at 74.65.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell quite a bit to 4.034% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.94% to close at $70.92 per barrel.   So, the Bears were in control all day Tuesday.  An accidental day early publication of earnings by ASML (-16.26%), which beat but missed on key segment growth and significantly lowered forward guidance, caused the stock to plummet.  More importantly, that read through into NVDA (-4.69%), AMD (-5.22%), and INTC (-3.33%) among other chipmakers.  (NVDA was the big hit to the overall market since it traded almost $50 billion in stock during the day.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in much lower than expected at -11.90 (compared to a +3.40 forecast and a September +11.50 value).  Later, September NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 3.0% (versus the August 3.0% reading).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Daly said the FOMC remains on track for more rate cuts this year unless data is unlike than expected. She defended the September half point rate cut, saying that it was “right-sizing.”  Daly described it as, “recognizing the progress we’ve made (on inflation) and loosening the policy reins a bit, but not letting go.” She went on, “even with this adjustment, policy remains restrictive, exerting additional downward pressure on inflation to ensure it reaches 2%.”  Looking forward, Daly said, “I think one or two [rate cuts] this year would be a reasonable thing.”  Regarding quantitative tightening, “Right now, today, I don’t have any signs this is something that needs to change right away.” She concluded saying, “The economy is clearly in a better place (regarding inflation),” … “the risks to our goals are now balanced.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told an event that he has penciled in just one more (quarter point) cut to rates in 2024 when he updated his “dot” at the September FOMC meeting. Bostic said, “The median was for … 50 basis points more, above and beyond the 50 basis points that was done in September. My dot was 25 basis points more.”  However, Bostic said he is open to changing his view and it is not set in stone.  Bostic said, “I am keeping my options open.” 

After the close, FULT, HWC, and OMC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, JBHT and UAL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, IBKR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, BX announced plans to invest $8.2 billion to build data centers in northeastern Spain.  Later, WBA announced it was closing 1,200 stores over the next three years (while simultaneously announcing beats on both lines of its earnings report).  At the same time, AAPL launched a new version of its iPad mini, which includes AI features.  Later, JNJ raised its 2024 sales and profit forecasts on strong cancer drug sales. Meanwhile, BA announced plans to raise $25 billion through the issuance of new stock and another $10 billion through a credit agreement with major lenders.  The move comes as the company looks to shore up its balance sheet to avoid a debt rating cut to junk status amidst a strike that has shut down its most-profitable product line’s production and ongoing regulatory and quality problems.  (For reference, the strike alone is costing BA more than $1 billion per month.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Biden Administration officials “have discussed” capping the sales of advanced AI chips from NVDA, AMD, INTC, etc. on a country specific (read China) basis.  (What this does not mention is that China can buy as much access as they want to the computer power via cloud computing from US-located hardware from GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, MSFT, etc.  In other words, unless they also ban cloud sales, the same amount of hardware would be sold…just to different destinations.)

Elsewhere, INTC and AMD announced they have formed an “advisory council” (along with smaller hardware and software firms) for the x86 computer architecture. The aim of the group is to steer both x86 chipmakers toward consistent and compatible functions and features.  (This is seen as a way to compete against the ARM and RISC V architectures.  However, it is just as important to prevent incompatibilities such have previously been seen in MSFT’s Windows where one company’s CPU do not perform as well or cannot support the same features.)  Later. Reuters reported that XOM is looking for a buyer for some of its ND (Bakken formation) shale oil assets. The report said XOM is seeking more than $500 million for 137 active wells, 676 non-active, and 49,000 acres of drilling rights.  After the close, NYCB announced it will rename itself “Flagstar Financial” and change its ticker to FLG, effective Oct. 25 as part of the bank’s turnaround efforts.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, SCBFF (Standard Chartered bank) won a UK court ruling which allows it to replace the financial benchmark (LIBOR) used to set dividend rates.  Despite investor objections, the court ruled it was acceptable for the bank to use a “reasonable alternative rate.” Later, TSLA announced it had received local German approval for the first stage of a plant expansion (a planned doubling of capacity) at its Berlin-area plant.  At the same time, DLAKY (Lufthansa) agreed to pay a $4 million penalty for discriminating against Jewish passengers attempting to board a connecting flight in Frankfurt in May 2022.  Later, NYT sent a “cease and desist” letter to AI startup Perplexity related to the AI using NYT content.  At the same time, the FCC announced it has opened an investigation of broadband internet providers on why data is capped for some customers and not others as well as how the policies impact consumer prices and competition. Later, the US Supreme Court heard a case involving a NY man fired from his commercial truck driver job for failing a drug test after taking CBD product he alleged was falsely marketer by MJNA as not containing the THC component the employment test measured.  (The man was seeking permission to sue the maker under the CA state RICO Act.) 

Elsewhere, GSK sued MRNA in US federal court, alleging the latter violated the former’s patent rights in the creation of MRNA’s COVID-19 vaccine and RSV vaccine.  Later, a CT jury awarded $15 million to a man who alleged the company’s talc had caused the rare form of cancer he contracted as a result of using JNJ talc for decades.  After the close, the US Dept. of Energy announced it had closed an $861 million loan guarantee to allows AES and TTE to build two solar farms and battery storage systems in Puerto Rico.  At the same time, a US District Judge ruled that META must face lawsuits brought by US states that accuse the company’s products of fueling mental health problems in teens.  (30 states are signed onto one such suit while another suit was brought by the state of FL.) The judge also rejected motions by META, GOOLG, SNAP and others asking to dismiss personal injury lawsuits by individual plaintiffs over the same subject.  Later, a federal judge ordered BA and the Dept. of Justice to provide details on the impact of company Diversity and Inclusion policies on the selection of an independent monitor prior to his deciding whether or not to accept the BA plea deal for violating the 2021 deferred prosecution agreement.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the FAA opened an “audit” into runway incursion risks at the 45 busiest US airports after a series of troubling near-miss incidents. (For example, air traffic controllers cleared an ALK flight to take off on a Nashville runway where a LUV plane had been cleared to cross the runway last month.)  Elsewhere, the National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast.  The NRF says it expects retail holiday sales to grow 3.5% in 2024 compared to 3.9% last year.  The forecast also calls for online sales to grow 9% compared to 2023. (These numbers are partially impacted by a shorter window from Thanksgiving to Christmas this year that is forcing sellers to push holiday sales earlier into non-traditional shopping periods.)

In Middle East news, on Tuesday, US Sec. of State Blinken and Sec. of Defense Austin warned Israel to allow at least 300 trucks of aid into Gaza within the next 30 days or risk losing access to US weapons funding.  (Israel has cut humanitarian aid to less than 50% of what it was at its post-Israeli-invasion peak.  Even that peak is said by NGO analysts to not be enough to avoid mass deaths from hunger and the lack of medical supplies.)  At the same time, the UN called for an investigation into an Israeli attack in a northern Lebanon countryside Christian village which killed two dozen (in pursuit of a single mid-level Hezbollah leader).  Meanwhile, US officials leaked to the AP that Israel has promised not to attack Iranian nuclear or oil sites.  Elsewhere, 41 new Lebanese were killed in 146 Israeli attacks Tuesday and the total number of Israeli attacks on that country passed 10k since the beginning of the most-recent hostilities one year ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were heavily red. Thailand (+1.36%) printed the only appreciable green while Japan (-1.83%), New Zealand (-1.55%), and Taiwan (-1.21%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses also lean toward the red with only four of the 14 showing green at midday.  The CAC (-0.52%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (+0.65%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.01% and Oil (WTI) is off another half percent to $70.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes September Export Price Index and September Import Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

So far this morning, CFG, FHN, MS, SYF, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that MS beat on revenue by 6.7% while crushing earnings by 19%.

With that background, it looks as if all three major index ETFs are very modestly bullish in the premarket. All three have printed small white-body candles inside Tuesday’s black body. QQQ did retest its T-line (and passed so far) from above this morning. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bull in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is back in (the top of) its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have slightly more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+0.74%) is back to leading that pack in terms of price move and has traded more than three times as much dollar-volume than any other ticker in the early session.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw the bulls in control from the start.  SPY gapped up 0.29%, DIA opened 0.10% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.49%.  From there, the Bulls took over in all three major index ETFs.  The QQQ rallied sharply for 30 minutes, SPY rallied strongly tor 60 minutes, and DIA rallied more modestly, but steadily all day.  After their initial rallies, SPY and QQQ traded mostly sideways with a slight bullish lean the rest of the day. It is worth noting that there was profit-taking across the board in the last 10 minutes.  This action gave us large-body, white body candles in the SPY and DIA as well as a white-bodied candle in the QQQ.  SPY gapped up and printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close. DIA opened a bit lower but gave us a large white-body candle that also printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close.  QQQ gapped up well out of its range going back to late September.  It closed as a white Spinning Top with the larger wick at the top and ended 1.25% below its all-time high.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.27%) out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.36%) was by far the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.82%, DIA gained 0.50%, and QQQ gained 0.84%. VXX fell another 3.55% to close at 52.15 and T2122 fell but remained in the top half of its overbought territory, closing at 91.78.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields were flat at 4.096% while Oil (WTI) dropped 3.72% to close at $72.75 per barrel.  So, the Bulls were again in control from the open.  This led to a morning rally and then a drift higher the rest of the day in SPY, QQQ, and DIA. Once again, only a little profit-taking the last few minutes of the day stopped the SPY and DIA from closing on the highs.  

There was no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Monday.  

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that more rate cuts lie ahead, but guided expectations toward more modest rate cuts.  Kashkari said, “As of right now, it appears likely that further modest reductions in our policy rate will be appropriate in the coming quarters to achieve both sides of our mandate.” As usual, he promoted the “data driven” mantra, saying “ultimately, the path ahead for policy will be driven by the actual economic, inflation and labor market data.”  He went on to say that the economy is not on the verge of a rapid slowdown, but the Fed is “in the final stages of bringing inflation down to our 2% target.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller called for “more caution” (smaller rate cuts) in the interest reductions ahead.  Waller said, “Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year.”  While saying that there is “considerable room” to cut rates, he said “We are in the sweet spot right now, we got to keep it there, that’s our job.”  He continued, “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting.”  Waller concluded, “I will be watching to see whether data, due out before our next meeting, on inflation, the labor market and economic activity confirms or undercuts my inclination to be more cautious about loosening monetary policy.”  (When asked what the word “gradually” means, Waller said, “It’s in the eye of the beholder, … That’s for you guys to figure out.”

In stock news, on Monday, ADBE said it has begun rolling out its Firefly AI model that can generate video from text prompts.  Later, activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. has formally requested a shareholder meeting of LUV.  (Elliott plans to put forward its own slate of eight directors against eight existing board members. For reference, LUV has a 12-member board with three open seats.)  At the same time, GM and BCS both announced they have signed a long-term credit card partnership.  Later, Danish drug maker Lundbeck A/S agreed to acquire LBPH for $2.6 billion ($60/share), which was a 54% premium on Friday’s close price.  At the same time, GOOGL announced it had signed an agreement to buy 500 megawatts of electricity from multiple small modular nuclear reactors from Kairos Power.  This will help support GOOGL’s AI processing.  Later, VNDA rejected a second ($8/share) takeover bid from UK-based Cycle Pharmaceuticals.  (VNDA closed a $4.44 prior to the $8/share offer and closed up to $4.81 on the news.) 

Elsewhere, TSLA took another hit related to its Robotaxi “unveil” event last week. This came as Bloomberg reporting confirmed that the TSLA Optimus humanoid robots highlighted at the event were actually just radio-control units being controlled by human “driver.”  At the same time, HYMTF (Hyundai) sold part of their Indian unit “Hyundai India” via a $989.4 million IPO.  BLK, Fidelity, and the government of Singapore each bought $77 million stakes while Indian mutual funds bought $340 million. (At that valuation, the unit represents 40% of the HYMTF market cap.)  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that SBUX will offer fewer discounts and promotions as part of a plan to reposition SBUX as a premium brand and getting customers to pay full price.  After the close, PSX announced it will sell 49% of its Coop Mineraloel AG to its Swiss joint venture partner for $1.24 billion.  (The joint venture operates 324 petrol stations across Switzerland.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, acting US Labor Sec. Su flew to Seattle to meet with both sides in the BA strike that is entering its fifth week. (In related news, BA said it will issue “60-day” notices to another tranche of engineering union workers on November 15, with a second wave of 60-day notices going out in December if the strike had not been resolved.)  After the close, Blue Cross Blue Shield agreed to pay $2.8 billion to settle class action lawsuits from hospitals, physicians, and other healthcare providers who alleged they had been underpaid for reimbursements.  (The deal is still subject to approval by a US District Judge in Alabama.)

In analyst news, heading into earnings season, Bloomberg Intelligence reported that the data they have collected show analysts expect S&P 500 firms to report a 4.2% increase in third-quarter earnings versus a year earlier. However, company guidance, implies a jump of about 16%.  This unusually large difference between the forecasts suggest to Bloomberg that companies should easily beat the estimates on average.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, FEMA reported that over the weekend contractors in NC were forced to cease work and return to their hotels Sunday while security was arranged. This came after some of the lies of the disgraced ex-President and his conspiracy-loving minions came home to roost. On Sunday, active military units that had been deployed to help recovery came across a militia group out “hunting FEMA workers” (based on the militia’s belief of the lies spread by the MAGA fools).  Separately, the Sheriff arrested one man armed with a handgun and semi-auto rifle, apparently from the same militia, who was out menacing recovery efforts, but he was later released on bond.  Two full days of recovery in Western NC and Eastern TN lost thanks to the right-wing stirring hatred and distrust for the political gain of one man. Elsewhere, in Russia that man’s friend invited fellow BRICS members to join together to create an alternative to the IMF to counter Western political influence throughout the world.

In Middle East news, on Monday, Israel continued strikes in both Gaza and Lebanon. One of the strikes in Gaza hit a Palestinian hospital and refugee camp located beside the medical building. (There was video of patients burning alive in their hospital beds.)  more than two dozen were killed including many children.  Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu again demanded that the UN remove peacekeepers and observers from Lebanon, falsely claiming UN troops were shields for Hezbollah. On the other side, Hezbollah made a drone attack on an IDF base, killing four Israeli soldiers and injuring 60.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China out front leading the losers down.  Hong Kong (-3.67%), Shenzhen (-2.53%), and Shanghai (-2.53%) saw by far the biggest losses.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+1.38%), Australia (+0.79%), and Japan (+0.77%) paced the six gainers.  In Europe, we see a similarly mixed picture that leans toward the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.90%), DAX (+0.15%), and FTSE (-0.56%) lead the region with just five green bourses versus nine red ones in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bonds are down to 4.073% and Oil (WTI) has plummeted another 4.66% to $70.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.), September NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Daly (11:30 a.m.) and Bostic (7 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ACI, BAC, SCHW, C, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, PGR, STT, UNH, and WBA. Then, after the close, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September Export Price Index, September Import Index, and API Weekly Crude Stocks are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.  On Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

So far this morning, BAC, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, STT, UNH, and WBA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  STT in particular had huge beats (+29.6% on revenue and +8.7% on earnings) while BAC managed +10.0% on revenue and +3.8% on earnings.  GS was the king on profit, delivering a 22.6% beat on the earnings line.

With that background, it seems the premarket is undecided with all three major index ETFs basically flat and giving use Doji candles in the early session. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bull in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema), although it is worth noting that DIA is getting close to extended. However, the T2122 indicator remains in the upper half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six are in the green this morning. AAPL (+0.88%) leads the way in gain while AMD (-1.59%) is the laggard in that regard. That biggest dog, NVDA (-0.62%) is back to leading all other tickers by a factor of three in terms of dollar-volume traded.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the opening bell Friday.  SPY opened just 0.01% lower, DIA opened 0.16% higher, and QQQ gapped down 0.39%.  However, regardless of their open, the Bulls stepped in and rallied all three major index ETFs sharply for an hour.  That was about it for the say as the SPY, DIA and QQQ meandered sideways with a slight bullish trend the rest of the day.  This action gave us large white-bodied candles with small profit-taking wicks at the top in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and DIA both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes on Doji Continuation Pattern (Doji Sandwich) signals.  Meanwhile, the QQQ gave us the highest close since July 16.  This happened on just above-average volume in DIA, just below-average volume in the SPY, and well-below average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.01%) well out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Communication Services (+0.30%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.60%, DIA gained 0.96%, and QQQ gained just 0.16%. VXX fell 1.17% to close at 54.07 and T2122 spiked to the top of its overbought territory, closing at 93.98.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields climbed to close at 4.096% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.47% to close at $75.49 per barrel.  So, the Bulls ruled the roost Friday as a strong morning rally led to a melt-up after the first hour.  Only a little profit-taking the last few minutes of the day stopped the three major index ETFs from closing on the highs.  

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included September Core PPI, which came in down, as expected, at +0.2% (compared to at +0.2% forecast and August’s +0.3% value).  On the headline number, September PPI was down and better than was anticipated at 0.0% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and well down from August’s +0.2%).  Later, Preliminary October Michigan Consumer Sentiment was down to 68.9 (versus a 70.9 forecast and a 70.1 September reading).  In terms of the outlook, the Preliminary October Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down at 72.9 (compared to a 75.0 forecast and September’s 74.4 value). In terms of inflation, the Preliminary October Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations popped to 2.9% (versus a 2.7% forecast and previous month value).  On the longer-term, Preliminary October Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were down as expected to 3.0% (compared to a 3.0% forecast and a September 2.7% reading).

In stock news, on Friday, Nippon Steel announced it would sell its 50% stake in a joint-venture steel plant in AL to MT…if the X acquisition succeeds.  Nippon would take a $1.55 billion loss on the joint-venture by selling their stake to MT for one dollar. Later, Bloomberg reported that HON is in advanced talks to sell its face mask (PPE gear) unit to private equity firm Odyssey for about $1.5 billion.  At the same time, Reuters reported that CVS is exiting its “core infusion services” business and plans to close or sell 29 pharmacies as a result.  (CVS had stopped taking new patients in that unit on Oct. 8.)  The unit was purchase in 2013 for $2.1 billion.  Meanwhile, after posting strong earnings, executives from both JPM and WFC commented that the consumers are still in good shape.  JPM’s CFO said “Overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid.”  The CFO of WFC echoed the same sentiment, telling reporters that “spending on credit and debit cards, while down a little from earlier this year, was still quite solid.”  Later, WSR said it will “carefully consider” at $15/share takeover offer from MCB Real Estate.  (WSR stock closed at $14.15 Friday.)

In BA news, the company announced it was cutting 17,000 jobs (about 10% of workforce globally) and will delay the first delivery of its new 777X jet by a year (that plane had been halted prestrike due to cracking in the part connect engines to its wings).  The company cited its dire financial situation as a month-long strike by 33k employees have idled manufacturing and delivery of its most profitable plane. (Years of quality debacles and mismanagement were also massive contributors.)  Analysts say the move, as well as rescinding its most recent contract offer are moves designed to pressure the union into ending the strike. On the other side, credit analysts have BA on credit watch and have already said they will cut the company credit rating to junk unless the strike is resolved “soon.” 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, BA filed unfair labor practices against the union representing 33k striking workers with the NLRB. The company alleges the union is bargaining in bad faith.  In unrelated news, the US Dept. of Transportation Inspector General said the FAA oversight of BA production was ineffective. The IG said the FAA did not have enough comprehensive presence to identify discrepancies and company non-compliance.  (Of course, that is the entire intent of deregulation, cuts to the size of government, and moves toward company self-certification that has been lobbied for and granted for decades.)  Later, a federal judge in TX criticized the terms of the plea deal BA had taken to avoid prosecution for violations of an earlier consent decree related to two fatal 737 MAX planes.  The judge pressed the Dept. of Justice to justify the leniency of giving that deal to BA. (He later said he would rule on whether the deal was valid in the near future.) 

Elsewhere, the NLRB filed a complaint against AAPL for restricting employee use of social media and messaging apps and doing illegal monitoring of them as a means of discouraging unionization.  Later, a US Appeals Court placed approvals and permits for a KMI gas pipeline in TN on hold by over-riding the Army Corps of Engineers permit and TN Dept. of Environment and Conservations certification.  The court said the stay would give the court time to consider the merits of a lawsuit brought by environmental groups.  On Saturday, GOOGL filed a motion asking the judge to place his final ruling on the fate of “opening up the Google Play Store” following the jury ruling that GOOGL was an illegal monopoly.  (GOOGL ask the judge to place an indefinitely hold on his judgement, which was due by November 1, while the company pursues appeals.)

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the state of CA confirmed six more human cases of bird flu (four Thursday and two Friday).  The US CDC said that all six cases appear to be due to human contact with animals (as opposed to human transmission) and that the public risk of the flu remains low as a result.  Elsewhere, US and European officials confirmed to Bloomberg that India has become the second-biggest illegitimate supplier of restricted components (like microchips) to Russia, behind China.  This comes as India doubled its export of those items to Russia in both April and May and increased it by more than 50% from those levels in July.  Meanwhile, in Russian invasion news, on Friday multiple journalist outlets, all citing South Korean sources, reported the latter had made intercepts of communication between North Korean military units. Those intercepts indicate North Korea has sent troops to help in missile targeting and is now preparing to send ground troops to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. (Obviously, this could give Russia thousands of trained troops, but may also result in changes to US policy on the use of US arms and potentially changes South Korea’s calculus on providing arms to Ukraine.) Russia denied the reports

In Middle East news, on Friday, the Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued as the Israelis fired on UN troop positions for the second day in a row, injuring another two of the peacekeepers.  Israel also fired on Lebanese government (not Hezbollah) troops.  However, the worse of the Israeli attacks Friday were in a residential section of central Beirut where bombing took out another pair of apartment blocks, a number of shops, as well as a refugee encampment. For their part, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into Northern Israel in response. On Saturday, Israel bombed towns in northern Lebanon, ordered the evacuation of 23 villages in “southern” Lebanon (North of Beirut), and also bombed the Bekaa Valley (45 miles Northeast of Beirut).  Further south, Israel laid down heavy bombardment across northern Gaza, killing a few dozen more people. On Sunday, Israel ordered more evacuations in Lebanon, now including fully one-third of that country’s population has been ordered out. (This includes UN peacekeepers, where Israel has attacked and breached two UN bases Sunday, ordering UN troops to leave the country…for their own safety.)

In China news, on Saturday, Chinese Finance Minister Foan held a press conference in Beijing that was intended to calm markets.  Foan pledged that the government will “significantly increase” debt to revive its sputtering economy.  However, details on the actual amounts left investors guessing about the total size of the stimulus.  (Last week the market had expected massive stimulus, but only got one-fifteenth the amount they had expected.) Foan said programs will offer subsidies for low-income people and also support property markets.  Separately, Bloomberg reported Beijing is now considering injecting $142 billion into the country’s largest banks on top of $284 billion in stimulus (resulting from special sovereign bond sales) this year to be used to spur the economy.  (Half of the $284 billion was to go to local governments and the other half to incentives for buying home appliances and other durable goods.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Hong Kong (-0.75%), and New Zealand (-0.61%) were red while Shenzhen (+2.65%) and Shanghai (+2.07%) paced the 10 gaining exchanges.  In Europe, markets are more mixed at midday with six bourses in the green and eight in the red.  The CAC (-0.30%), DAX (+0.23%), and FTSE (-0.07%) are typical in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest start to the week.  The DIA implies a -0.16% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.096% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.51% to $73.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Waller (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get NY Empire State Mfg. Index.  We also hear from Fed member Daly.  Then Wednesday, September Export Price Index, September Import Index, and API Weekly Crude Stocks are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ACI, BAC, SCHW, C, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, PGR, STT, UNH, WBA, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL.  Then Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.  On Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

With that background, the SPY and QQQ both opened the premarket flat but have printed white-body candles and are not far from their highs at this point of the early session up in clean air. Meanwhile, DIA opened higher but has put in a black candle so far to be back down slightly in the top of Friday’s candle. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is in the upper half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning. TSLA (+1.12%) leads the way in both price move and volume as it tries to come back from Friday’s robotaxi hammering. INTC (+0.25%) is the laggard among the 10. It is worth noting that TSLA has just slightly more dollar-volume traded than NVDA (+1.08%), which is abnormal (NVDA typically leads all other tickers by at least a factor of 2.5). So, just be aware.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a volatile, up-and-down day in the market.  SPY gapped down 0.22%, DIA opened flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs slowly rallied to the highs shortly after noon.  Then they slowly sold off to the lows at 2:45 p.m.  Finally, all three rallied back towards the highs again to end the day.  This action gave us indecisive (more wick than body) candles in the top half of the prior day’s candle.  The SPY printed a white-body Doji.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a black-bodied Hanging Man or Hammer type candle.  Finally, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Communication Services (-0.72%) leading the way lower.  On the other end of the spectrum, Energy (+0.88%) was far out ahead of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.18%, DIA lost 0.09%, and QQQ lost 0.11%. VXX gained 1.26% to close at 54.71 and T2122 fell back to the lower half of its mid-range to 37.58.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.067% while Oil (WTI) jumped another 3.21% to close at $75.59 per barrel. In summary, Thursday was just an indecisive “pause day” where most of the day was spent in the upper half of Wednesday’s strong bullish candle.  There was no new all-time highs or new all-time high closes.  However, SPY and DIA are withing spitting distance of both. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in significantly higher than expected at 258k (compared to a 231k forecast and the previous week’s 225k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,861k (versus the 1,830k forecast and the prior week’s 1,819k).  At the same time, September Core CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.3% (which was higher than the +0.2% forecast, but in-line with August’s +0.3%).  On the annualized basis, September Core CPI (year-on-year) increased a tick to 3.3% (compared to an August reading and forecast of 3.2%).  On the headline number, September CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.2% (versus a +0.1% forecast and in-line with August’s +0.2% value). Later, after the close, the September Fed Balance Sheet stayed dead flat for the week at $7.047 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterate that he foresees a series of rate cuts over the next year. Goolsbee said, “Over a 12-18 month period, I think we are going to gradually, whatever word you want to use, move to a steady state policy rate.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams said he too expects more rate cuts lay ahead.  Williams said, “Based on my current forecast for the economy, I expect that it will be appropriate to continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.” As usual, Williams indicated that all specific meeting decisions will be data driven.  He said, “the timing and pace of future adjustments to interest rates will be based on the evolution of the data, the economic outlook, and the risks to achieving our goals.” Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic seemed to indicate the Fed may skip a rate cut in November.  Bostic said, “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.”  He went on to say, “I think we have the ability to be patient and wait and let things play out a little longer…. There are elements of today’s report which I think validate that view.”

In stock news, on Thursday, NVDA held an “AI summit” to outline the advancements in its next generation AI chips.  In an attempt to steal some of NVDA’s thunder, AMD also announced its own next generation AI chip (to be available in Q4 and ship in quantity in early 2025) at an event at the same time.  (The problem for AMD is that NVDA offers a proprietary on-chip technology called CUDA cores and most AI software is written to take advantage of that technology. This means those users are locked into NVDA AI processors.  AMD is still building out its competing tech called ROCm.) NVDA stock was up 1.,63% while AMD (-4.00%) got hammered.  Later, GM announced they will be offering new home energy storage and solar collection products to EV customers (just as TSLA offers).

Elsewhere, UBS said integration of CS data into the UBS systems is on track after a test run. (UBS acquired CS in March 2023 to prevent the latter’s collapse.)  Later, in a novel excuse, DAL warned of lower revenue and blamed the Q4 forecast reduction on the presidential election, saying that people are avoiding travel so they can stay home to vote.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TGI is exploring strategic options including a sale of the company. At the same time, SNY announced it had closed the sale of its consumer health unit for $16.4 billion (to a private equity firm). After the close, SEC filings showed that BRKB has now reduced its BAC holdings below 10% by selling another 9.5 million shares this week.  This sale netted BRKB $382.4 million.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the Consumer Product Safety Commission announced MAT is recalling 21 different models of infant swings after five reported suffocation deaths.  In addition, MAT is offering a $25 partial refund to those customers who just cut off the headrest and body support pad (offending parts) on their own.  (About 2.2 million of the swings were sold in North American between 2012 and 2022.)  At the same time, the US Justice Dept. announced that TD has plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and will pay a massive $3.1 billion fine. TD will also be subject to an asset cap and other restrictions as part of the guilty plea.  Later, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN (among others) have proposed an “alternative framework” for how data centers pay for power in OH.  This is a direct challenge to the AEP proposal that cryptocurrency miners and data centers prepay or offer other financial assurances for their massive energy needs. 

Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Justice announced that TEVA has agreed to pay $450 million to resolve allegation it used charities to help cover Medicare patient out-of-pocket drug costs as a way to pay kickbacks to boost sales of its multiple sclerosis drug.  (12 other drugmakers had previously settled over the same charges to the tune of $1 billion in fines.  However, the case against REGN remains pending.)  Later, a Philadelphi jury ordered BAYRY (Bayer) to pay $78 million to a PA man who had alleged he got cancer from using the company’s Roundup weedkiller.  At the same time, a US Bankruptcy Judge overruled the motion from the US Justice Dept., ruling in favor of LNJ which is now allowed to pursue a third attempt to get a bankruptcy judge to end tens of thousands of lawsuits over talc cancer risks.  (JNJ had “venue shopped” by filing the latest bankruptcy in TX after twice being denied by NJ bankruptcy courts.)  Later, following a decade of unfulfilled promised and missed deadlines, TSLA held an event Thursday night to unveil their robotaxi, which they dubbed “Cybertaxi.”

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the largest US power grid operator issued a warning over potential disruptions which may be caused by a massive solar flare. (The warning expired very early Friday morning.  Meanwhile, the Center for Disease Control said it had identified a cluster of 18 cases of MPOX (formerly Monkey Pox) that are drug-resistant across five states.  Elsewhere, the FTC finalized changes to a rule covering what information companies must turn over when seeking approval for proposed mergers.  Finally, Hurricane Milton appears to have killed 10 and left three million customers without power at one point Thursday.  However, the damage was much less than had been expected, with the bulk coming from flooding due to intense rain as well as 27 tornadoes spawn by the storm.  (After the close, DIS and CMCSA announced their theme parks in Orlando would resume operations Friday.)

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Thursday.  Israel killed 30 in the bombing of a school/shelter in Gaza and dozens more in attacks on buildings in central Beirut. In addition, Israel injured two UN peacekeepers in a tank fire accident. (The peacekeepers have been in place between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since 1978, following a previous Israeli invasion.)  In Europe, on the heels of France’s call for an arms embargo on Israel, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador to make formal complaints over “unacceptable” actions in Southern Lebanon. 

In other war news, it was confirmed Thursday that Russia has attacked three civilian ships under foreign flag (not Russian or Ukrainian) that were carrying commercial grain shipments.  (None of the ships have been sunk.  However, they were damaged and this is an escalation from early in Russia’s invasion when it boarded, inspected, and/or turned back ships.)  In response, insurance rates on a $50 million ship increased by $125k per voyage in the Black Sea.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Shenzhen (-3.92%) and Shanghai (-2.55%) were far out front in terms of losses while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Taiwan (+1.07%) were way out front leading the gainers.  In Europe, we nearly see green across the board at midday the sole exception of London.  The CAC (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and laggard FTSE (-0.08%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures point toward a slightly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.098% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.71% to $75.29 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include September Core PPI and September PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 1:10 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC as earnings season kicks into gear again. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, BK, BLK, JPM, and WFC show a clean sweep of beats on both the revenue and earnings lines by the big banks.  However, FAST missed on revenue even as it came in in-line on earnings.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat again at this point of the premarket. QQQ has the worst-looking candle and, even so, it is just a black spinning top inside the top half of yesterday’s inside candle. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the lower half of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (-6.01%) is getting hammered after a very unimpressive reveal of its robotaxi late last night. AMD (+0.96%) leads the gainers and for the first time in a long time, TSLA leads in terms of dollar-volume traded even on not heavy trading as NVDA (-0.01%) has EXTREMELY light, as in 10% of normal, volume in the premarket. This is very abnormal premarket trading. Don’t forget its Friday. So, prepare your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day flat, rallied into noon, and then traded sideways before rallying again the last 30 minutes.  SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened down 0.06%.  From there SPY and DIA began their rally into noon.  QQQ pulled back for 20 minutes after the open, but then got in line and followed the other major index ETFs higher.  At noon, all three took a 3.5-hour break before rallying into new highs near the close.  They all would have closed on their highs except for profit taking the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks in all three major index ETF.  SPY printed a new all-time high and closed at a new all-time high close.  DIA gave us a new all-time high close.  QQQ didn’t make it as far, only printing its highest close since July 16. (QQQ is just less than 2% away from its all-time high close.)  This all took place on below-average volume in SPY and QQQ and above-average volume in DIA. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+0.79%) leading but not way out ahead of other sectors.  Only Utilities (-0.62%) was in the red and lagged far behind all other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.69%, DIA gained 1.01%, and QQQ gained 0.79%. VXX fell almost 2.5% to close at 54.03 and T2122 climbed a bit, but remains in its mid-range, at 68.36.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 4.073% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.38% to close at $73.28 per barrel. In summary, it was the Bull’s market from the open of the session.  A flat start across the board led to a strong morning rally.  This was followed by an afternoon pause, but the Bulls came back for the last 30 minutes to drive us back to new highs.  It is worth noting that the September Fed Meeting Minutes were a nothing burger.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in with a larger inventory build than expected at +5.810 million barrels (compared to a +2.000-million-barrel forecast and ever versus the prior week’s +3.889 million barrels). 

As mentioned, we also got the September FOMC Meeting Minutes in the afternoon on Wednesday.  They really revealed nothing that was not know from Fed Chair Powell’s post-decision press conference and other Fed member statements since.  It said that Fed members “were divided” on whether the rat cut should have been a half percent.  (That said, the most hawkish FOMC member, Fed Governor Bowman, was the only voter to vote against the half-percent cut.  She said she preferred a quarter-point cut instead.  In fact, the minutes said “a substantial majority” of Fed members backed the half-percent cut.)  The minutes said, “Some participants observed that they would’ve preferred a 25-basis-point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.” Later, the minutes said, “Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path.”  The bottom line is that FOMC members believed the economy remains in good shape and are confident inflation is falling toward the 2% target.  The minutes showed the division was not over any data in-hand, but rather about their forecast of the future economy. 

In other Fed news, on Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Logan said she supported last month’s half-point rate cut.  However, she said she also wants smaller cuts in the meetings ahead given remaining upside risks on inflation and “meaningful uncertainty” over the economic outlook.  She said, “Following last month’s half-percentage-point cut in the fed funds rate, a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

In stock news, on Wednesday, TSLA announced that its sales of China-made vehicles were up 19.2% in September (year-on-year) in China.  (For reference, the Chinese EV maker BYD, which is TSLA’s main competitor reported a 45.56% increase year-on-year in September.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TSLA’s robotaxi will have two front seats and gull-wing doors.  The report also said TSLA CEO Musk is expected to “discuss “Full Self-Driving” software assistance from TSLA semis soon. Later, META announced it is expanding the availability of its AI chatbot (META AI) to 21 new markets, including the UK and Brazil in efforts to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  At the same time, EADSY (Airbus) reported that its plane deliveries fell 9% in September to 50 compared to the same month in 2023.  (This comes a day after BA reported just 33 planes delivered last month.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that the CEO of STLA is planning on making major management changes as he faces heavy pressure.  The report said, CEO Tavares’ plan (offered to the board to save his job at a two-day meeting this week) could affect finance teams, regional heads and brand executives among others.  After the close, CNBC reported that AMZN is now testing full-automated mini-warehouses for Whole Foods stores.  The move is intended to let customers pick up orders at the checkout and reduce shopping time.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, NVAX received European Commission approval for its latest version of COVID-19 vaccine which targets the currently predominant JN.1 strain of the virus.  The authorization was for individuals 12 years and older throughout the EU.  At the same time, BIIB’s flezartamab antibody treatment received the FDA’s “breakthrough therapy” designation.  BIIB said the drug will now begin late-stage trials. Later, the NHTSA announced that HMC is recalling 2 million cars and SUVs over a steering issue that can increase the risk of crashes.  (!.7 million of the vehicles are in the US with the remainder in Canada and Mexico.) 

Elsewhere, the FTC announced that MAR and its subsidiary HOT have agreed to put in place an information security program to settle charges related to several data breaches (affecting 344 million customers) between 2014 and 2020.  Separately, MAR agreed to pay a $52 million penalty to 49 states and the District of Columbia over the same issue.  Later, GSK has settled 80,000 Zantac cancer-related lawsuits for $2.2 billion.  The settlement, reached with 10 class-action law firms represent 93% of the company’s pending Zantac suits.  GSK also announced it would pay $70 million to settle a related whistleblower lawsuit.  At the same time, SMNEY (Siemens Energy) filed a lawsuit against Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum trying to recover about $200 million from a promissory note that is in default.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday evening Hurricane Milton came ashore as a Category 3 storm, making landfall just south of Tampa Bay in Bradenton to Sarasota, FL. As of this morning, millions of residents and an unknown number of businesses are without power.  However, the worst is past as the storm crossed the peninsula and headed back out to sea after crossing Florida.  Ahead of the storm, the disgraced ex-President and MAGA minions continue to spread lies, distortions, and misinformation related to FEMA, responses, conspiracy theory-based motives, available money, and everything else.  It got so bad that even some GOP members have broken ranks to try to correct the lies and limit the damage. Elsewhere, in China, President Xi Jinping seems to have gotten the message after two days of fierce selling in Chinese markets. The stimulus package announced Monday fell flat as it came in 1/15^th of what had been expected.  So, the Chinese government announced it will hold a briefing Saturday on fiscal policy that is intended to buttress growth.

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Wednesday.  Israel sent thousands of additional ground troops into Lebanon during the day. In addition, Israeli air strikes in a Gaza refugee camp killed dozens. At the same time, the first Israeli civilian deaths (two of them) were reported in Northern Israel after 90+ (per BBC, I’ve seen other numbers) retaliatory Hezbollah rockets were fired into that area.  At the political level, Israeli PM Netanyahu got the phone call he had demanded with President Biden (before allowing his rival to travel to the US), who told him to limit civilian casualties.  This call will likely clear the way for Netanyahu’s (rival and) Defense Minister Gallant to travel to the US to discuss the Israeli retaliation for last week’s 180-missile Iran strike.  Meanwhile, Israel again warned Lebanon they will “fall into the abyss of a long war that will bring destruction and suffering similar to what we see in Gaza,” implying they could avoid this fate by getting rid of Hezbollah.  (Presumably, this PR stunt would mean he wants the Christian, Druze, and Sunni Lebanese to start a Lebanese civil war and take over from Israel…in the middle of the Israeli invasion and bombing campaign. That seems a lot like demanding a unicorn. It also sounds like “Don’t make me hurt you…see what you made me do.”)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green as the Chinese promise of a Saturday meeting to explain fiscal policy and how it will prop up their economy stopped the bleeding in Chinese markets.  Shenzhen (-0.82%) was the only significant loser in the region while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Shanghai (+1.32%) led the gains.  In Europe, the bourses lean toward the red side at midday with 11 of 14 exchanges below break-even.  The CAC (-0.22%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.25%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a slightly red star to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.092% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.3% to $74.18 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, and September CPI, (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (11 a.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DAL and DPZ. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, SVNDY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, DAL reported missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat at this point of the premarket. SPY opened the early session flat and has traded slightly lower. QQQ opened premarket lower and traded down before recovering. Meanwhile, DIA gapped a bit lower and has put in a white candle in the early session to also recover. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. (SPY and DIA both printed new all-time high closes again Wednesday.) With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (+1.15%) leads the three gainers while AAPL (-0.33%) is at the head of those headed lower. The biggest dog, NVDA (-0.14%) is barely ahead of TSLA in terms of the dollar-volume traded. This is abnormal (at least for the last year or so) and not the common state of recent bullish moves by the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a drift higher across the market after the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.47%, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped up 0.52%. From there, both SPY and QQQ followed-through with a rally that lasted until 10:50 a.m.  Then, those two major index ETFs ground sideways in a small range until 1 p.m. when a new steady rally kicked in.  For its part, after the open, DIA immediately recrossed the gap and chopped sideways for the first hour. Then, it drifted slowly higher the rest of the day.  This was broker by slight profit-taking the last minutes of the day in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us a large white-bodied candle in the SPY that recrossed above its T-line (8ema) and closed while testing its short-term downtrend line. (SPY also missed another all-time high close by just 65 cents.)  At the same time, QQQ printed a large, white-bodied candle that crossed back above its T-line as well as its short-term downtrend line.  For its part, DIA was the weakest of the three, giving us a white-body Spinning Top Bull Harami type candle that closed right at a retest of its T-line but did not get up to retest the short-term downtrend line.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.    

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.31%) far out in front (by 0.68%) of the rest of the group. On the other side, Energy (-2.30%) was by far the biggest mover and biggest loser. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.95%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ gained 1.49%. VXX fell 4.04% to close at 55.39 and T2122 climbed to the other side of its mid-range at 51.26.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.018% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.24%, ostensibly on somewhat reduced Middle East war fears, to close at $73.89 per barrel.  So, while there was no major driver for the rally Tuesday, Fed members generally leaning toward quarter-point cuts and a “no news is good news” feeling surrounding expansion of the conflicts (i.e. the next Israeli attack on Iran and perhaps Yemen also) led the Bulls to a modest gap up and then a drift higher.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to August Exports, which were up to $271.80 billion (compared to the July value of $266.60 billion).  On the opposite side, August Imports were down a bit to $342.20 billion (versus July’s $345.40 billion reading).  This resulted in an August Trade Balance of $70.40 billion (compared to a forecasted -$70.10 billion but down from July’s -$78.90 billion).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Stocks came in with a much bigger inventory build than anticipated at +10.900 million barrels (versus a forecasted +1.950 million barrels and the previous week’s 1.458-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler made a case for more rate cuts. She said she had agreed with the half percent cut in September and feels more should come.  Kugler said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.”  She continued, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Meanwhile, NY Fed President Williams indicated the Fed was “well positioned” and said he supported quarter-point cuts moving forward, saying that the FOMC Dot Plot (which calls for two quarter-point cuts by year end) is a “very good base case.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said, “The labor market … is certainly slowed down, but is not slow.”  However, Bostic also said, “We have to get it back to that 2% target,” … “(Referring to inflation) It’s too high … That’s still quite a ways to go and I want people to understand that I’m still laser-focused on the inflation target.” 

At the same time, Boston Fed President Collins indicated there are more cuts to come.  She said, “Further adjustments of policy will likely be needed.”  She continued, “I will stress that policy is not on a pre-set path and will remain carefully data dependent, adjusting as the economy evolves.”  Collins also said, “It will be important to preserve the currently healthy labor market conditions,” noting that it would “require economic activity continuing to grow close to trend, which is my baseline outlook.”  Finally, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson told a Davidson College event, “The FOMC has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal.”  He continued, “To maintain the strength of the labor market, my FOMC colleagues and I recalibrated our policy stance last month.”  In addition, Jefferson said, “Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. Inflation has eased substantially. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.”  On inflation, he said, “I expect that we will continue to make progress toward that goal.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, NVDA announce that Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn is building the largest production facility in the world in Mexico to assemble NVDA’s next generation GB200 superchips. At the same time, a regulatory filing shows that BRKB had sold more of its BAC shares, with total proceeds of its reduction now exceeding $10 billion.  However, BRKB still owns 10.1% of BAC shares.  Later, HON announced it will spin off its advanced materials unit via IPO.  BCS values that division at $11 billion.  At the same time, IT industry publication The Information reported that OpenAI is moving away from a MSFT datacenter focus in a bid for more independence as a way to get closer to ORCL who has its own datacenter unit. Later, BA announced it had delivered 33 jets in September, down from 40 in August, but up six from August 2023.  The company noted the impact of the mid-September strike of 33k Pacific Northwest BA workers. At the same time, AWK announced it had disconnected its computers following a “cybersecurity incident.”  The water utility said it had discovered unauthorized activity in its network on October 3.

Elsewhere, LYFT announced it is rolling out a number of improvements aimed at attracting more drivers.  Later, Reuters reported that GS has taken derivative positions equal to a 6.7% stake in UNCFF as of September 30.  Later, German company FMS said Tuesday it was working with the US FDA and HHS to boost production at its NC plant after direct competitor BAX suffered hurricane damage last week.  (Both companies are leaders in the IV solutions business.)  At the same time, descendants of the founders of PG lost a shareholder vote to oust company CEO Moeller and members of the board environmental sustainability committee.  After the close, S&P placed BA on a rating of “credit watch negative” as the plane maker’s strike drags on.  At the same time, Reuters reported BA is weighing options to raise cash by issuing new stock or stock-like securities.  Sources told Reuters the company hopes to raise $10 billion to assuage credit agency concerns.  Later, Unifor (the Canadian version of UAW) said it had started negotiations with CP.  At the same time, WOPEY announce it had completed the $1.2 billion acquisition of TELL.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will outline the actions GOOGL could take to restore competition in online search following an August court finding that the company is an illegal monopoly.  (This action plan may include the breakup of the company.)  At the same time, a Paris-based arbitrator ruled in favor of BP and prohibiting KOS from selling LNG from its Senegal project to other parties.  After the close, C filed a motion asking a US District Court to dismiss a suit filed by NY Attorney General James for lax security and failing to reimburse customers who fall victim to online scammers due to company deficiencies.  At the same time, the FAA issued a safety alert over BA 737 jet rudder problems, warning that the rudder could become jammed or only operate in a limited manner.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook said that US electrical power demand will reach a record 4,093 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 and then another record of 4,163 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.  (For reference, US demand was 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023.)  This breaks down into forecasts of 1,503 billion kWh for residential use, 1,412 billion kWH for commercial use, and 1,033 billion kWh for industrial user.  Elsewhere, the ports of Tampa and Sarasota closed Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Milton. Meanwhile, major freight terminals in SC, including the large one at Charleston, began implementing restrictions. 

In China news, markets were disappointed late Tuesday when the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission announced $28 billion of additional spending (stimulus) would be pulled forward into Q4 from 2025.  Analysts had expected the package to be a staggering $420 billion.

In Middle East news, Israeli PM Netanyahu barred his Defense Minister (Gallant) from making a scheduled trip to the US.  This trip was supposed to focus on coordination between Israel and the US related to the retaliatory strike on Iran.  Netanyahu has twice tried to fire Gallant in the last year.  So, tension between the two is fierce.  Still, r, there may be other political angles involved.  For example, Reuters reports Netanyahu is demanding a phone call from President Biden prior to sending his defense minister to the US.  (Perhaps as a vain show that he is the top dog and must be kowtowed to before actual work gets done.)  In addition, Netanyahu is also demanding that the War Cabinet approves his attack plans prior to the trip taking place.  (Again, so he gets his way and perhaps to prevent US input into the plan.)  There is also significant possibility that Netanyahu has US political motives.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China really pushing to the downside over disappointment about the stimulus details announced Tuesday night.  Shenzhen (-8.15%), Shanghai (-6.62%), and Hong Kong (-1.38%) were the big losers.  On the other side, New Zealand (+1.75%) and Japan (+0.87%) were the winners.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed but lean toward the green side with nine of the 14 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTES (+0.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, the market is just on the red side of flat as of 7:30 a.m.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.02% and Oil (WTI) is off another 0.58% to $73.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and September FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.). However, we also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.), Williams (11 a.m.) and Daly 6 p.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to HELE. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look nearly flat at this point of the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks to recover almost all of the gap at this point. SPY and QQQ remains above their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has still not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. (SPY missed a new all-time high close Tuesday by 0.10%). With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split this morning with five on each side of break-even. The biggest dog, NVDA (+1.26%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, GOOGL (-0.96%) is the laggard of the group on that DOJ action plan report. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (-0.09%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down, ground sideways, sold off hard, and then ground sideways again on Monday.  SPY gapped down 0.28%, DIA gapped down 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways not far from the open level for a while.  SPY and DIA started their next leg, a sharp selloff at about 11:30 a.m.  For its part, QQQ kept chopping sideways until 2 p.m. before it too sold off even faster. All three reached the lows of the day at about 3 p.m. before drifting sideways with a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us a black-body candle after an indecisive candle, which crossed back below its T-line (8ema).  All three also have wicks on both end of the candles.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.   

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.91%) way out front (by almost three-quarters of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.37%) held up almost a half percent better than any other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.90%, DIA lost 0.90%, and QQQ lost 1.07%. VXX spiked 8.91% to close at 57.72 and T2122 dropped to the bottom side of its mid-range at 44.66.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields popped up over 4% to close at 4.02% while Oil (WTI) spiked another 3.98% on Middle East fears to close at $77.33 per barrel.  (So, WTI has spiked 14.3% over 7 trading days on Israeli versus the region fears.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit which came in at $9.93 billion (compared to a forecast of $11.80 billion and hugely below July’s $26.63 billion reading).  On one hand, this means US consumers are likely in better shape, having less installment debt. However, it also means consumers were not out spending, which could indicate lower consumer confidence.  Either way, it should be read as bearish for the US Dollar.  (And things that are bearish for the Dollar are, by definition, bullish for commodity prices.)  Still, it is worth noting that Consumer Credit figures have always been subject to sizable revisions due to a lack of reporting uniformity or requirements.

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari seemed to say the same thing Chicago Fed President Goolsbee had said on Friday. Namely, the Fed liked the strong September Labor report.  Kashkari said, “It looks like it is still a strong labor market…it’s really good news as we want to keep a strong labor market.” He went on to say, “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher unemployment.”  … “So that’s a really good fact that the job market has stayed strong while inflation has come down.”  Then early Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler said she had supported the half-percent rate cut in September.  She said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.” She did go on to note the better-than-expected Payrolls report from Friday and said she now supports a “balanced approach” to future cuts, saying, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams had an interview with the Financial Times in London.  Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is really well positioned to both hopefully keep maintaining the strength that we have in the economy and the labor market, but also continuing to see that inflation comes back to 2%.” He defended the larger half-percent first cut, saying it was “right in September and right today.” Williams went on to say that the Fed’s Dot Plot (which shows two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year) is a “very good base case.”

In stock news, on Monday, APD surged on reports that activist investor Mantle Ridge had taken a more than $1 billion position.  This set off a chain reaction, including two analyst upgrades.  (APD ended the day up 9.52% after a 7% gap higher at the open.)  At the same time, SRRK announced positive results from its Phase 3 clinical trial for its apitegromab treatment for muscular atrophy. (SRRK gapped up 254% and closed out the day at +361.99%.)  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that UL will invest more than $165 million to improve its European supply chain.  In addition, UL sources said the company’s European homecare unit will increase R&D and promotion spending by 40% in 2025. (No dollar figure was given.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL’s share of the $300 billion search market is under pressure from AI rivals and other platforms like TikTok offering native Internet search functions.  WSJ reported that GOOGL’s share of that market is expected to end the year at below 50% for the first time in more than a decade. 

Meanwhile, AMZN’s share of that market is expected to reach 22.3% this year.  Later, GM announced it had restarted production at assembly plants following the hurricane-related supplier shortages.  At the same time, CVX announced it is selling its Athabasca oil sands and Duvernay shale assets to CNQ for $6.5 billion (all cash).  CVX expects the deal to close Dec. 6.  (Those two resources produced 84k barrels of oil per day in 2023.)  Later, EQNR announced it had bought a 9.8% stake in Danish offshore wind farm developer ORSTED for $2.5 billion. At the same time, Reuters reported that activist investor Starboard Value had bought about a $1 billion stake in PFE.  (PFE gapped higher on the news and closed near the opening level, up 2.17%.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by UBER and LYFT, which were seeking to avoid lawsuits from the state of CA on behalf of drivers.  (The drivers had been forced to sign agreements to keep legal disputes in arbitration rather than court.)  Later, a Seattle-based US District Judge unsealed his Sept. 30 ruling that the FTC case against AMZN for antitrust violations will proceed to trial.  (It is worth noting that a few of the co-plaintiff states, namely NJ, PA, MD, and OK, had their claims dismissed.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $965 million in arms to Romania and Italy.  RTX is the maker of the $285 million of arms sold to Romania while BAESY produced the $680 million sold to Italy. Later, a US District judge ruled that GOOGL must offer alternatives to its Google Play store for downloading and paying for apps on Android phones on antitrust grounds.  (The order restricts GOOGL from paying phone makers to preinstall the Google Play store or from sharing Play store revenue with other app distributors.) For its part, GOOGL immediately vowed to appeal the decision.  

Elsewhere, STLA filed eight additional lawsuits against the UAW union, alleging the union violated its labor contract by threatening to strike over the company’s delaying of investments it promised in the contract. Later, a group representing drug compounders sued the FDA over its decision to remove LLY’s bestselling weight-loss and diabetes drug from the “shortage list” last week. Thereby hurting drug compounder’s ability to sell their own version of the drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. The suit alleges that those drugs are still in short supply.  (If left on the list, it would require rationing of the drugs by LLY to any given buyer and give generic compounders a leg-up since they are not bound by the list rules.)  Finally, Mexico’s antitrust regulator made a preliminary finding Monday saying that GPAGP (tortilla-maker Gruma) holds unacceptable price-fixing power in the corn tortilla market in Mexico.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the CBOE announced it will list “hedged ADRs” that Us investors can use to buy foreign-listed stocks while limiting impacts from any currency fluctuations. Initially, these will include ADRhedged offerings for AZN, HSBC, and SHEL.  However, 14 other hedgedADR offerings will follow quickly.  Elsewhere, Hurricane Milton quickly went from Category 3 to Category 5 Monday.  This caused at least one oil and gas platform (owned by CVX) to shutdown.  Meanwhile, some FL ports have also begun restricting navigation or planning for Tuesday closure.

In Middle East news, Yemen’s Houthi rebels got in on the Middle East fighting again on Monday.  The Houthi claim to have fired two missiles at Jaffa, Israel.  (The IDF claimed to have shot down one of the two.)  Meanwhile, the Israeli bombing campaign in Beirut and Southern Lebanon as well as the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon continued. For his part, Israeli PM Netanyahu said they were fighting a “war of resurrection” and they are in the process of changing the security reality of the region and their attacks will not stop until all their goals are achieved.  Perhaps in response, French President Macron called on an arms embargo of Israel in the face of 42k Palestinians and more than 2,000 Lebanese killed in Israeli actions over the last year. With this as the backdrop, oil markets continue to reflect big fear over the threatened, and likely coming, Israeli retaliation to Iran’s recent 180 missile barrage.  (Analysts are speculating Israel will attack Iran’s oil infrastructure to damage its economic output and cause maximum pain to domestic.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed as China resumed trading after a week-long national holiday.  Mainland China remained “crazy strong” as they were right before their break with Shenzhen (+9.17%) and Shanghai (+4.59%) by far the biggest gainers.  On the other side, Hong Kong (-9.41%) and Japan (-1.00%) stood out among losers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see red across the board at 7:15 a.m.  The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.22%), and FTSE (-1.15%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade on Chinese responses to the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are essentially flat from the Monday close at 4.024% and Oil (WTI) is actually down 1.58% to $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Exports, August Imports, and August Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, PEP reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  PEP also cut its full-year forecast, citing weakness in US snack sales and the repercussions from its Quaker Foods recalls in North America.

With that background, markets look modestly bullish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session roughly flat, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks at this point. SPY and QQQ have crossed back above in a retest of their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+2.06%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, INTC (-0.40%) is the laggard among that group. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (+1.14%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service