Markets diverged at the open Wednesday as SPY started down 0.18%, QQQ gapped down 0.48%, and DIA opened dead flat.  SPY and QQQ immediately recrossed the gap and then traded sideways from 10:30 a.m. to 2:45 p.m.  At that point, the two market- leading index ETFs sold back down and recrossed the gap before rallying the last 30 minutes of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA traded higher until 10 a.m., traded sideways until 2 p.m., sold off until 3:20 p.m., and rallied modestly the last 40 minutes.  This action gave us white-body candles with upper wicks in the SYP and QQQ.  Both retested their T-line (8ema) but closed back below.  However, the DIA gave us a black body Doji candle that never quite retested its own T-line.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green as Basic Materials (+1.14%) was out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.96%) was by far the weakest sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.22%.  VXX lost 0.52% to close at a still low 13.38 and T2122 climbed but remains in its mid-range at 73.76.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.351% and Oil (WTI) rose another 0.59% to $85.65 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was mostly a bullish, but indecisive day that did not change anything overall in the market.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which came in quite strong at 184k (compared to a forecast of 148k and a February reading of 155k).  Later, March S&P Global Services PMI was exactly as predicted at 51.7 (versus the 51.7 forecast but down from February’s 52.3).  At the same time, March S&P Global Composite PMI was a tick low at 52.1 (compared to a 52.2 forecast but down from February’s 52.5 value).  Later, March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was down at 48.5 (versus the 49.0 forecast but up from the February 48.0 reading).  At the same time, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was lower than predicted at 51.4 (compared to a 52.8 forecast and the previous value of 52.6).  March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index showed prices lower at 53.4 (versus a forecast of 58.4 and a Feb. reading of 58.6).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger inventory build than anticipated +3.210 million barrels (compared to a predicted drawdown of 0.300 million barrels and even slightly larger than the previous week’s +3.165 million barrels).

In Fed speak news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic came out with a hawkish outlook that expects one rate cut in 2024, not coming until Q4.  Bostic said, “We’ve seen inflation kind of become much more bumpy,” … “If the economy evolves as I expect and that’s going to be seeing continued robustness in GDP and employment, and a slow decline in inflation over the course of the year, I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell said, “If the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year.”  Powell said  that recent data had not materially changed the Fed’s outlook, which continues “to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2 percent on a sometimes bumpy path.”  Still, Powell also said that cuts would not start until “we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent.”  Later, Fed Governor Kluger said “I expect the disinflationary trend to continue.” (Saying that would pave the way for rate cuts over the course of the year.)  She continued, “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.”

After the close, LEVI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, BB reported a massive miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LEVI raised forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported SPOT will increase prices for the second time in a year.  (The report indicated prices will increase $1 – $2 per month by the end of April.)  In addition, SPOT will offer a new pricing tier on $11/month which will include only music and podcasts (but not audiobooks).  At the same time, Taiwan was hit with the largest earthquake since 1999.   This caused TSM (the world’s largest chip maker) to temporarily close some its plants.  Hours later workers returned to the plants to begin inspections prior to restart of those cleanroom tight fab. TSM management said this could cause a “short-term hiccup” to electronics manufacturers.  Later, F reported a 6.8% rise in US Q1 auto sales.  At the same time, AMZN announced it will cut several hundred “sales, marketing, and tech” jobs in its cloud computing unit.  (The timing is a bit suspect since AMZN announced it will be investing an additional $10 billion per year for each of the next 15 years…$150 billion overall…to expand its cloud computing unit.)  That business unit has 60,000 employees, putting the “few hundred” into perspective.  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) delivered 142 planes in Q1, up 12% from Q1 2023.  Still, this was six planes shy of company goals for Q1.  (EADSY refused comment on the report.)  At the same time, 5,000 pilots at JBLU began negotiations with the company for a new labor contract.  Later, the CEO of ULTA warned that Q1 demand was lackluster for his company and across the industry.   (ULTA fell 15.34% on the comments while peers COTY was down 6.28% and EL fell 4.12%.)  At the same time, HXSCL (SK Hynix), the second largest computer memory chip maker and a major supplier to NVDA, announced it will invest $3.87 billion to build a plant in the state of IN.  This plant would begin full production in H2 2028. 

Elsewhere, DIS management won its battle with shareholders choosing CEO Iger’s slate over the slate proposed by activist Iger opponent Nelson Peltz.  Later, COST announced it will offer members access to weight-loss programs, including access to the hit prescription drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is now exploring a move into personal robotics as its “next big thing.”  Later, Reuters reported that sources tell it that BA plane deliveries fell sharply in recent weeks as the FAA has increased quality audits.  After the close, MSFT announced that it (in partnership with Quantinuum) had achieved a breakthrough in quantum computers, making them much more reliable.  (Quantum computes basic unit is a “qubit” which are notoriously error prone.  MSFT said their partnership has developed an error correction algorithm that allow quantum computers to have 800 times fewer errors than any other quantum effort.)  Also after the close, the Financial Times reported that GOOGL is planning to charge for its “AI-powered search engine.”  Meanwhile, XOM made a filing saying that it expects Q1 results to be weaker based on lower oil and gas prices.  At the same time, Reuters reported AAPL has had 6,400 app store users reported outages in addition to service losses for Apple Music and Apple TV+.  Later, Reuters reported PARA has entered into exclusive merger negotiations with Skydance, a private equity firm.  (This comes days after PARA received a $26 billion all-cash offer from APO.)  It is worth noting Bloomberg reported Wednesday that PARA’s controlling shareholder has already reached a tentative agreement to sell her stake to Skydance.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the Fed has blocked a push by global banking watchdogs to make climate risk a focus of financial rules.  (The ECB is pushing for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to demand lenders make and meet climate commitments in their lending starting January 2026.)  At the same time, the UAW filed allegations with the NLRB, claiming that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) management have taken “fierce backlash” measures against union organizers at its AL plant.  Later, a federal judge ruled in favor of ABUS and against MRNA in three of four patent disputes.  This will allow a trial over damages to begin in a year (April 2025).  After the close, Reuters reported that the EU will drop its “sovereignty requirement,” which will make it much easier for AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT to bid on EU cloud computing contracts.  This came after a draft of cybersecurity certification scheme scrapped the requirement that vendors should be “independent from non-EU laws” (meaning EU-based).  Elsewhere, unsurprisingly, T, VZ, CMCSA, and other telecom industry members have filed opposition to the FCC plan to reinstate “net neutrality” rules thrown out by the Trump administration.  Later, the FDA approved an antibiotic for staph infections from BPMUF.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed.  South Korea (+1.29%) and Malaysia (+1.06%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.22%) and Taiwan (-0.63%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the green side at midday with only five of 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (+0.06%), DAX (+0.10%), and FTSE (+0.41%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are up slightly to 3.363% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $85.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday, includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the CEO of STLA told an auto industry group that the industry needs to halve the weight of batteries in an electric vehicle over the next decade.  (The average electric vehicle now has 1,000 pounds of battery in it.)  He said he thinks that is achievable with many improvements already in the works.  Still, he said the industry still needs a breakthrough in terms of energy density.  He also commented on hydrogen vehicles, saying that “for the time being” affordability is a showstopper for all except large corporate fleets.  Elsewhere, European authorities released a report saying (the obvious to me) that social media stock tips may influence stock prices in the short term, but have no impact in the long run.  The report went on to say it is important to hold financial media to accuracy standards in news and data reported…but this is not the case for social media since the impacts are “only short term.”  (It is worth noting the meme stock craze drove GME up 1,600 percent at one point.) 

So far this morning, CAG and RPM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (RDUS and LW report closer to the open).

With that background, it looks as if markets are looking to gap higher to start the day (ahead of data still). The SPY an QQQ both gapped up across their T-line (8ema) to start the early session. Meanwhile, DIA gapped up close to its own T-line. From there, all three major index ETFs have given us tiny, white-body, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. So the short-term trend is very modestly bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL lagging in the red. So, expect a bullish start to the day unless Jobless Claims are a major surprise causing a turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets gapped lower to start the day.  SPY gapped down 0.76%, DIA gapped down 0.84%, and QQQ gapped down 1.12%.  However, from that point, all three major index ETFs ground sideways along the opening levels.  With a modest rally the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-down Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed white-body Hammers, while the DIA printed a black-body hammer.  All three gapped down through their T-line (8ema) and never came close to retesting it.  This all happened on roughly average volume (with SPY the weakest of the three in that sense).

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red as Energy (+1.28%) was far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Healthcare (-1.60%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.45%) were by far the weakest sectors and led the way lower.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.63%, DIA lost 0.94%, and QQQ lost 0.86%.  VXX gained 2.51% to close at a still low 13.47 and T2122 pulled back to the center of its mid-range at 51.13.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.353% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.96% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a gap-down day where essentially all of the move happened at the open.  The rest of the day was just treading water as markets start off Q2 similarly to the way they started off Q1…full of fear and uncertainty.  Still, we know how Q1 ended up (the strongest quarter in 5 years).  So, the bulls have not given up hope or anything of that sort.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included February Factory Orders, which came in stronger than expected at +1.4% (compared to a forecast of +1.1% and especially compared to the -3.8% in January).  At the same time, February JOLTs Job Openings were slightly lower than predicted at 8.756 million (versus a forecast of 8.760 million but still up from January’s 8.748 million reading).  After the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.286 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.000 million barrels and far down from the prior week’s 9.337-million-barrel inventory build). So, overall, the economy still shows as strong with better-than-expected factory orders and a large number of job openings.

In Fed speak news, Cleveland Fed President Mester said she continued to expect rate cuts this year.  However, Mester indicated that the bigger risk (to the FOMC) is still in cutting rates too soon rather than too late.  She said, “with labor markets and economic growth both being very solid, we do not need to take that risk.”  Mester continued, “If the labor market deteriorates, we can move rates down sooner and more quickly than in our baseline. Rather than view this as a normalization, the intention would be to return to an accommodative stance of monetary policy to support the economy.”  Later, San Francisco Fed President Daly said she still expects three rate cuts in 2024.  Still, she said, there isn’t enough convincing data yet to warrant starting the cuts. Daly said, “three reductions this year is a very reasonable baseline.”  However, she quickly added, “Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise.” … “We’re getting there, but it’s not going to be tomorrow, but it’s (also) not going to be forever.”

After the close, CALM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, PLAY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, TSLA revealed its Q1 vehicle deliveries fell 8.5% from Q1 of 2023.  However, this was also down 20% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2023.  (This was TSLA’s first year-on-year decline since Q2 2020.)  Later, SLB announced it will acquire competitor CHX for $7.75 billion.  (CHX shareholders will get $40.59 per share, which is a 14.6% premium on the Monday closing price.)  At the same time, UBS announced a new $2 billion share buyback program (up to half completed by the end of Q2).  Later, TM reported a huge 20% increase in Q1 auto sales in the US.  (TM sold 565,098 in Q1 2024 compared to 469,558 in Q1 of 2023.)  In contrast, GM reported that Q1 sales fell 1.5% versus Q1 of 2023 (594,233 in Q1 2024 versus 603,208 in Q1 2023).  At the same time, BABA announced it had bought back $4.8 billion of its stock in Q1 as part of its planned $25 billion buyback through Q1 2027.  Later, Bloomberg reported that HON is considering selling its COVID protective gear business unit in a deal reportedly more than $2 billion.  Elsewhere, APO (owner of Yahoo) announced Yahoo had acquired the AI-driven news platform Artifact for an undisclosed sum.  At the same time, GE announced it has completed its three-way breakup (into GE, GEV, and GEHC).  Later, the USW union representing employees of X announced it would not support the takeover agreement of Nippon Steel for roughly $14.1 billion.  The union said Nippon Steels job protection pledges were “meaningless” because of the open-ended wording that would allow the company to skirt promises to both workers and retirees.  After the close, the largest investor of DIS (Vanguard) announced it had cast its votes in support of management’s (CEO Iger’s) slate of directors in Iger’s fight with activist investor Peltz.  Also after the close, the Washington Post reported that the US Cyber Safety Review Board is expected to release its report into lapses by MSFT that allowed hackers to hack State Dept. and Dept. of Commerce email addresses last year via MSFT’s Exchange mail servers.  Meanwhile, INTC disclosed an increasing and now $7 billion operating loss from its chip-making unit for 2023.  (This is up from $5.2 billion loss from the same unit in 2022.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, it was announced that recreational pot will be on the November ballot in the state of FL.  (This led to a spike in pot stocks like TLRY, ACB, and CGC.)  Later, the FDA announced that it has approved an ABT heart valve repair device.  This comes months after the FDA approved a rival product from EW.  At the same time, DUK filed a rate increase request with the Florida Public Service Commission, looking to pass $820 million in costs onto 1.97 million FL residents it serves.  Later, the FDA said some dosages of LLY’s Mounjaro diabetes drug will be in short supply the rest of 2024 due to soaring demand.  (This is one of the drugs approved for weight loss under a different brand name.)  At the same time, the Biden Administration announced it had responded to offers from the makers of the 10 highest priced drugs covered by Medicare.  These include BMY, MRK, JNJ, ABBV, AMGN, LLY, NVO, and AZN.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will meet with the families of victims of the two BA 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019. The DOJ is evaluating whether BA violated the terms of its January 2021 agreement to avoid criminal prosecution then. Later, several anti-smoking groups sued the FDA, demanding the agency ban menthol-flavored cigarettes.  This comes after an August final decision was pushed back to March and again missed amidst lobbying by MO and BTI (both of which get more than 20% of their revenue from menthol brands).  At the same time, the FDIC announced it is considering a plan to push BLK, STT, and Vanguard back into passive roles in the banking system.  At the moment all three own more than 10% of many FDIC-regulated banks, including JPM, BAC, WFC, and C. Later, MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) workers in AL filed for a unionization vote with the NRLB.  (The vote could happen within days.)  After the close, C filed motions with a federal judge urging the dismissal of a suit brought by the Attorney General of NY, alleging the company failed to reimburse fraud victims and coercing them into giving up legal remedies before summarily dismissing their claims.  C urged the dismissal based on a Uniform Commercial Code standard that excuses banks from doing so if it had taken “commercially reasonable” security measures to verify customer identities.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  South Korea (-1.68%), Australia (-1.34%), and Hong Kong (-1.22%) led the region lower.  India (-0.08%) and Shanghai (-0.18%) held up much better than other exchanges.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only three of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.23%), DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (-0.37%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.365% and Oil (WTI) is up another seven-tenths of a percent to $85.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m., March S&P Global Services PMI and March S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 p.m.), March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bowman (9:45 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (12:10 p.m.), and Fed Vice Chair Barr (1:10 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI.  Then, after the close, BB and LEVI report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In EV adoption news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that electric vehicles are on track to outnumber petrol vehicles by the end of this year or early 2025 at the latest in Norway.  (Nine out of every 10 cars sold in Norway during Q1 was electric.)  This is an extremely interesting nugget for two reasons.  First, obviously Norway is located far to the North in a cold climate…and batteries do not perform as well in cold temperatures.  Secondly, Norway has huge oil reserves relative to the population. Logically, you might think this should mean gasoline and diesel are cheaper there. You’d be wrong. Norway has among the highest fuel taxes in the world, Norway has small refining capacity, and the Norwegian Krone is a very weak currency (making the oil commodity relatively expensive).

In commodity news, the White House said Tuesday that it is open to ending the current temporary pause in LNG exports if that would help get Ukraine aid passed.  (There is a current pause on approval of NEW LNG export projects while climate impacts are studied.)  This White House proposal comes after House Speaker Johnson (from LA, a major LNG exporting state) told FOX Sunday that reversing the “Biden pause” could make it easier for his party to support a Ukraine aid package.

In mortgage news, the national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage fell slightly to 6.91% from the prior week’s 6.93% rate.  Loan origination points also fell slightly from 0.60% to 0.59%.  As a result, applications for loans to refinance a home fell 2% week-on-week and were 5% lower than the same week in 2023.  However, applications for new home purchase loans slipped only 0.1% from the prior week, but were 13% lower than the same week in 2023. 

With that background, it looks as if markets are modestly bearish in the early session. All three major index ETFs gapped a bit lower to start the premarket. However, they’re all also putting in small, white-bodied, indecisive candles up to this point this morning. The SPY, QQQ, and DIA are all below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bullish with the notable caveat that QQQ is consolidating in a choppy sideways action. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is smack in the center of its mid-range. So, both sides have plenty of room to run if they can find traction. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red. However, only INTC is getting hammered hard (on last evening’s reveal of a $7 billion loss from their chip foundry unit). Unfortunately, the dog swinging the biggest sticks (NVDA and TSLA) are in that group of eight. So, expect a down start unless morning news causes a major turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, SPY and QQQ opened dead flat while DIA opened up 0.11%.  From that point, SPY traded sideways in a very tight range until 2:45 p.m.  At the same time, DIA recrossed its small opening gap and then traded sideways along the previous close in a tight range until 2:45 p.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ also traded sideways with a little more volatility until noon, and then sold off very modestly until 2:45 p.m.  Then at a quarter to 3 p.m., all three major index ETFs rallied to the highs of the day at 3:30 pm and sold off back down the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three, with a Gravestone Doji in the SPY, a Doji in the DIA, and a small, black-bodied Inverted Hammer in the QQQ.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema) and SPY printed a new all-time high with DIA missing the same by a few cents.  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Energy (+1.02%) leading the way up while Technology (-0.14%) oddly again lagged and was the only sector in the red. (Odd in that the market remains bullish and for the last two or more years when that was the case, Tech led the way.)  At the same time, SPY lost 0.02%, DIA gained 0.05%, and QQQ lost 0.18%. VXX gained 1.57% to close at a still very low 12.97 and T2122 pulled back 2.26% but remains in the top half of its overbought territory at 92.87.  10-year bond yields rose to 4.206% and Oil (WTI) rose another 2.16% to $83.11 per barrel.  So, Thursday was an indecisive or treading water day, maybe due to PCE data coming out on a non-trading Friday.  This brought us to a +0.36% week in the SPY, +0.82% week in the DIA, and a -0.53% week in the QQQ.  For the month, SPY gained 2.95%, DIA gained 2.00%, and QQQ gained 1.14%.  On the quarter, SPY gained 10.05%, DIA gained 5.54%, and QQQ gained 8.42%.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below expectations at 210k (compared to a forecast and previous week reading of 212k).  The ongoing or Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were just a bit higher than predicted at 1,819k (versus the 1,815k forecast and up from the prior week’s 1,795k).  At the same time, Q4 GDP was stronger than expected at +3.4% (compared to the +3.2% forecast but below a blowout +4.9% reading in Q3). Meanwhile, the Q4 GDP Price Index was a tick higher than anticipated at +1.7% (versus a +1.6% forecast but far down from the Q3 +3.3%).  Later, Chicago PMI was below the expected level at 41.4 (compared to a 45.9 forecast and the 44.0 previous reading).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was stronger than predicted at 79.4 (versus a 76.5 forecast and a 75.2 February value).  At the same time, the Michigan Consumer Expectations were also stronger than predicted at 77.4 (compared to a 74.6 forecast and February 75.2 reading).  In terms of inflation, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were a tick lower than anticipated at +2.9% (versus a +3.0% forecast and a +3.0% February value).  The Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also a tick lower than expected at +2.8% (compared to the +2.9% forecast and Feb. reading).  Later, the Feb. Pending Home Sales were also strong than expected at +1.6% (versus a +1.4% forecast and far better than the January -4.7% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $29 billion reduction week-on-week at $7.485 trillion (down from the prior week’s $7.514 trillion).

On Friday, despite being a market holiday, the February Core PCE Price Index came in as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but down significantly from January’s +0.5%).  On an annual basis, the February Core PCE Price Index also came in just as expected at +2.8% (versus a forecast of +2.8% and down from January’s +2.9%).  Meanwhile, the headline February PCE Price Index (month-on-month) was down to +0.3% (compared to a forecast and January reading of +0.4%).  On an annual basis, the headline February PCE Price Index was in line with predictions at +2.5% (versus a +2.5% forecast but up a tick from January +2.4% value).  At the same time, the Preliminary Feb. Goods Trade Balance was a bit worse than anticipated at -$91.84 billion (compared to a $-90.10 billion forecast and a -$90.51 billion January reading).  Elsewhere, the Feb. Personal Spending was up significantly at +0.8% (versus a forecast of +0.5% and a January +0.2% number).  Finally, Preliminary February Retail Inventories were up to +0.4% (compared to a January value of +0.3%). 

In FOMC-speak news, on Friday, Fed Chair Powell spoke at a San Francisco Fed event.  Powell said, the “inflation is along the lines of what we would like to see.”  In comments about Friday’s February PCE data release, Powell said “(The data was) not as low as most of the good readings we got in the second half of last year, but it’s definitely more along the lines of what we want to see (than January’s values).”…“it is what we were expecting.”  He continued, “The decision to begin to reduce rates is a very, very important one … The economy is strong right now, and the labor market is strong right now, and inflation has been coming down. We can and we will be careful about this decision because we can be.” (Essentially, he continued the Fed’s line that things are good now and there is no need to take chances or rock the boat until the committee is sure.)

In stock news, on Thursday, AMC announced an equity offering, saying the company will “from to time” sell stock with a value up to $250 million.  At the same time, Chinese tech company Xiaomi entered the electric vehicle market by debuting a $30,000 car (cheaper than TSLA Model 3) in China.  The move intensifies the EV market in at the very least in China.  In unrelated news, Reuters reported TSLA deliveries in China fell 5% during Q1 compared to the prior quarter.  (TSLA still delivered 8% more cars in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023, but down from Q4.)  Later, WBA announced it took a $5.8 billion charge in Q4 relate to its acquisition of VillageMD (160 medical clinics).  At the same time, F told Reuters it is considering producing its new hybrid sports-utility vehicle in Spain.  (This is likely related to EU scrutiny of Chinese EV makers and incentives.)  Later, PM announced it is near to launching its flagship IQOS heated tobacco device in Austin TX.  This will be the first test marketing of that device in the US.  (MO and BTI already offer competitive devices in limited test marketing in the US.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL has ramped up production of its new iPad Pro overseas and will likely launch the new product in May.  (The original launch date was March, but the software for the device is still in development and was pushed back.)  The new model iPad Pro will have AAPL’s newest M3 chip.  Later, NXPI (the largest chip maker for cars) introduced a new platform to simplify and speed the software development of its carmaker customers and their partners such as ACN, BB, QNX, ETAS, SNPS, and several others.  At the same time NTR (largest global potash fertilizer producer) announced it is exploring the sale of its operations in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay as part of a strategic restructuring.  (NTR took a $465 million impairment on South American operations in 2023.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, EU regulators told Reuters they are considering the introduction of tougher rules on “zero tobacco” heat sticks offered by PM and BTI.  The companies currently use materials like nicotine-infused tea in the sticks, which are both addictive and pose potential health risks.  Later, a US district judge mostly dismissed a lawsuit accusing grocery chain Trader Joe’s of misleading and endangering consumers by failing to disclose that its dark chocolate contained harmful levels of heavy metals like lead and cadmium. The judge dismissed five claims while allowing claims brought from IL, NY, and WA to proceed (because those states have more specific laws).  At the same time, the Dutch government announced it would spend $2.7 billion to improve infrastructure in the Eindhoven region to prevent ASML from moving production operations abroad.  Later, REYN was sued for alleged false advertising in that the company’s premier Reynolds Wrap aluminum foil is labeled as “Made in USA” while only a small fraction of its materials (like aluminum) come from the US.  At the same time, a federal judge in CA appeared poised to reject TSLA’s bid to have a racial discrimination and harassment case thrown out.  The judge has not filed her ruling, but disagreed with TSLA counsel’s assertions many times during Thursday’s hearing.  Moreover, the judge seemed to agree the EEOC had included (cited) the relevant evidence in their own filing.  Elsewhere a federal just dismissed seven lawsuits against GS and MS related to misconduct that added fuel to the fire and ended Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management company.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Commerce “asked” US companies to stop shipping goods to more than 600 new foreign parties, based on evidence those entities have been redirecting the shipments to Russia.  Those components have been found inside Russian munitions, machinery (“tank sights”, drone control circuits, data link encryption, etc.) on the battlefield in Ukraine.  Later, the TX Attorney General announced he has launched an investigation into BA and their main supplier SPR.  Also in TX, a federal judge (often sought out by conservatives who are “judge shopping”) threw a surprise into the case over whether the CFPB agency has the right to regulate card fees.  He did this by chiding the plaintiffs and transferring the case to a Washington DC court since no plaintiff lived in his court’s Fort Worth district, all the lawyers from both sides, and the agency being sued all reside in DC.

On Friday, AMZN announced it will spend $150 billion over the next 15 years on new and upgraded data centers to bolster its cloud services.  (AMZN hold more than twice the market share of MSFT, who is number two in the cloud computing market.)  Later, T announced Saturday that it is investigating an “incident” two weeks ago that has led to more than 65 million of its customer records being published on the dark web.  T reset the passwords of 7.6 million current users, but in addition, the private information (name, address ,phone number, date of birth, and social security number) of all 65 million has been disclosed.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes March S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), Feb. Construction Spending, March ISM Mfg. Employment, March ISM Mfg. PMI, and March ISM Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, the major reports scheduled after the close are limited to PVH.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Feb. Factory Orders, Feb. JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Fed speakers Mester and Daly.  Then Wednesday, March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, March S&P Global Services PMI, March S&P Global Composite PMI, March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA, and Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PAYX, CALM, and PLAY report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AYI, BB, and LEVI.  On Thursday, CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the UK government backed the idea of them following the US in its move from a T+2 trade settlement timing to T+1 as the US, Canada, and Mexico will move to starting in May.  (China, India and 55% of global markets already settle using T+1 timing or will do so by the end of the year.)  The UK move puts immense pressure on the EU to follow suit.  On Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. announced that the national average cost of a 30-year, fixed-rate loan fell to 6.79% last week (down from 6.87% the week prior).  Overseas, Chinese tech firm Huawei announced its net profits doubled in 2023, despite US sanctions.  The company saw a 9.6% year-on-year revenue increase and a 145% increase in net profit to $12.3 billion.  (Much of the increase came from their hit “Mate 60” smartphone that caused a 47% increase in phone sales in China in Q4…mostly at AAPL’s expense.)

In federal regulation news, a federal judge in TX (Judge shopped for the filing) struck down the Dept. of Transportation rules calling for states to measure, monitor, set declining goals, and mitigation plans toward those goals relate to greenhouse gas emissions.  Elsewhere, in a joint project, NASA and the EPA analyzed US landfills.  The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that landfill release was the third-largest source of release of Methane (a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2).  The study labeled 52% of US landfills as “super-emitters” which means they emit more than 100lbs of methane/hour, 24 hours a day, year after year.

With that background, I’m sorry but I feel like death. I did not want to not post the blog but knew I would not be up for it this morning. So, this is posted Sunday evening. Check the premarkets for yourself. However, none of the three major index ETFs are too extended but the T2122 is still well into the overbought territory. Also, don’t forget to put an eye on the 10 big dog tickers. They will point the way for the rest of the market, at least early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw a significant pop higher to start the day all across the market.  SPY opened 0.58% higher, DIA gapped up 0.54%, and QQQ gapped up 0.71%.  At that point we did get some modest divergence with QQQ recrossing its gap by 10 a.m., SPY selling back half way back across its gap by 10:30 a.m., rallying and then reverting to the open level by 10:30 a.m.  From there, all three major index ETFs just traded sideways in a right range until 3:20 p.m.  All three closed out the day with a strong rally the last 40 minutes.  This action gave us a new all-time high close in the SPY on a white Hanging Man candle that retested and passed the test of its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, DIA came within 25 cents of its all-time high close on a large white-body candle with only a small lower wick (almost a Bull Kicker type candle), and QQQ printed a black-bodied Hammer candle that retested and passed the test of its T-line.  This happened on slightly above-average volume in DIA and modestly less-than-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were green as Utilities (+2.46%) of all things was way out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (+0.37%) lagged far behind all the other sectors.  (This is extremely odd on a bullish day in the last few years and was likely due in part to NVDA, by far the biggest dollar-volume trading stock, begin down 2.50%.)  At the same time, SPY gained 0.84%, DIA gained 1.20%, and QQQ gained just 0.34%. VXX fell 1.77% to close at an extremely low 12.78 and T2122 spiked back up into the top end of its overbought territory at 95.02.  10-year bond yields plummeted to 4.188% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $81.70 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a very odd rally day, with tach lagging and utilities leading (on the bond yield fall).  This leaves us at or very near the all-time highs across the major index ETFs and sets us up for a move the last day of March and the Quarter.

The only major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which came in with a much bigger inventory build than expected at +3.165 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a 0.700-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 1.952-million-barrel drawdown). 

In FOMC-speak news, Fed Governor Waller said Wednesday said, “There is no rush to cut the policy rate” right now.” However, Waller also said rate cuts are still on the table, noting that, further progress expected on lowering inflation “will make it appropriate” for the Fed “to begin reducing the target range for the federal funds rate this year.”  He then continued, “We’re in a situation where if we ease too much or too soon, we could see inflation come back, and if we ease too late, we could do unnecessary harm to employment and people’s working lives,” … “We want to be careful.”  Responding to a question about possibly raising rates again, Waller said “Something would really have to dramatically change on the inflation front to think about pushing higher.”  Instead, he said “it’s just a question of when you start (cutting).”

After the close, JEF reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CC, FUL, and MLKN missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, RH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CC and MLKN lowered their forward guidance.  Meanwhile, RH raised guidance despite its misses.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that FSR had cut the US prices of its Ocean electric SUV by as much as 39%.  (FSR was recently delisted by NYSE due to an “abnormally low” stock price after the company revealed a lack of cash.)  At the same time, DIS completed the addition of the Hulu service to its Disney+ streaming service Wednesday. Later, the CEO of NSANY (Nissan) told Reuters that his company will invest in Renault’s electric vehicle unit after that units’ public listing fell through.  He went on to say NSANY is also considering a partnership with HMC (Honda) to further build out its global EV offerings.  At the same time, USB announced it had sold $8 billion of former assets of CS to APO.  USB added that it expects to book $300 million from the deal in Q1.  Later, HYMTF (Hyundai) announced it will invest $51 billion over the next three years to increase electric vehicle production, expecting to hire 80,000 new employees.  (Back in November, HYMTF announced a new $12.6 billion EV and battery plant in the state of GA toward the same goal.)  Elsewhere, AMZN announced that its senior employees, who receive mostly stock-related compensation “may not” get a pay raise this year.  (AMZN stock rose 81% in 2023 and is up 18% in 2024.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that a Yale University study has found that it costs NVO as little as $0.89 (and as much as $5.00) to make a single patient 1-month supply of its runaway hit weight loss drug Ozempic.  This is a public relations black eye for the company since the drug sells for over $1,000/month in the US.  (NVO sells exactly the same drug for $59/month in Germany and $155/month in Canada.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the Biden Administration began pressuring allies to stop their domestic companies from servicing pre-existing tools and machines used for chipmaking in China.  This is seen as the next step to current bans on selling new semiconductor manufacturing technologies to Beijing.  ASML is the main target of this new push.  Later, AMZN lost its court fight to suspend EU rules on online advertising in that region.  Europe’s top court said the EU interests outweigh the interests of AMZN.  This is in line with the September lower court ruling against AMZN.  (AMZN had sought to have the EU Digital Services Act suspended for years while it prepares and files legal suits and appeals against the legislation.)  At the same time, a US federal judge ruled that WBD did not steal (plagiarize) 2022 “The Batman” movie from a writer who created the original story about the superhero three decades prior to the movie.  Later, another US federal judge ruled that JNJ will get a chance to contest the scientific evidence linking talc to ovarian cancer.  This may further delay the more than 53,000 lawsuits against JNJ over its talc products.

Elsewhere, FL Governor DeSantis and his appointed special district development board settled a state lawsuit with DIS.  The settlement calls for the board and DIS (one of the state’s largest employers and the largest tourist attraction) to work together to reach a consensus on new development plans.  As part of the agreement, DIS agreed to pause filing more briefings in its related federal case against the state while the parties seek to reach that consensus development plan.  (Analysts say this was the likely outcome ever since DeSantis dropped his Presidential candidacy and his backers no longer needed the “woke” concept as a stalking horse.)  Later, ALK and HA entered into an agreement with the US Dept. of Justice that they will not consummate their merge until at least 90 days after the two companies comply with a second round of antitrust document requests.  At the same time, WMT notified the FTC and DOJ that it is withdrawing its antitrust review application and expects to refile an amended version Mach 29 for its planned acquisition of VZIO.  Meanwhile, the NHTSA announced that FUJHY (Subaru) is recalling 118k 2020-2020 cars related to a faulty airbag sensor that can prevent deployment.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six of the region’s exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Shenzhen (+1.31%), Australia (+0.99%), and India (+0.92%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile Japan (-1.46%), Singapore (-0.85%), and Thailand (-0.76%) paced the losses.  In Europe, markets are mostly green at midday with only three of 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.315), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (+0.26%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.224% and oil (WTI) is up 1.41% to $82.50 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Core PCE, Q4 PCE, Q4 GDP, and Q4 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Feb. Pending Home Sales (all at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Thursday, we hear from AZUL, DOOO, MSM, and WBA.  There are no major reports scheduled after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, despite being a market holiday, Feb. Core PCE Price Index, Feb. PCE Price Index, Feb. Personal Spending, Feb. Goods Trade Balance, Feb. Retail Inventories are reported and Fed Chair Powell speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled since it is a market holiday.

In miscellaneous global news, on Wednesday, Russia increased its gasoline imports from Belarus.  The imports are up to 3,000 metric tons in the first half of March.  (Compare this to 590 tons total imported during all of February.)   This move comes after Ukrainian strikes have hit numerous Russian refineries taking 15%-20% of Russia’s refining capacity offline.  In other global news, the US announced new sanctions on six people and two companies in Russia and the UAE, accusing them of funneling funds to North Korea’s weapons programs.  South Korea followed suit, sanctioning four of the people.  Elsewhere, Chinese President Xi met with US executives including the CEO of BX, QCOM, and FDX among the 20 companies that were represented.  Xi argued against the “China collapse theory” and “China peak theory” in a 90-minute attempt to gain more investment in China.  This meeting came after foreign investment in China fell 8% in 2023. (The meeting was also a follow-up on the November meeting Xi had with US executives in San Francisco.)

In late-breaking news, AMZN announced Thursday morning that it is investing $2.75 billion into OpenAI competitor Anthropic in a bid to keep pace with MSFT, which has already embedded OpenAI’s ChatGPT in its Azure cloud services.  This is the second tranche of AMZN’s $4 billion investment into Anthropic. (OpenAI’s ChatGPT, GOOGL’s Gemini, and Anthropic are the three main competitors in the AI space.  All other firms in the AI space are far behind and mostly use one of those three tools via partnership.)  Elsewhere, a federal court ruled that the SEC can move forward with its lawsuit against COIN.  The SEC alleges that COIN engaged in the unregistered sale of securities in its sale of cryptocurrencies.  Finally, HD announced this morning it is acquiring private firm SRS Distribution (supplier to landscaping, pool, and roofing contractors) for $18.25 billion.

So far this morning, WBA beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  This included significant beats on both.  On the other side, DOOO missed on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, MSM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that DOOO lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like markets are undecided ahead on news on virtual Friday. All three major index ETFs are printing small, and small-body candles that are little changed from Wednesday’s close. It is worth keeping in mind that this “virtual Friday” is also the end of a strongly bullish quarter where the SPY is up more than 10%. So, there could be a lot of window dressing finishing up today. However, the morning news dump (and to some extent the Friday news which can’t be reacted to until next week) have traders nervous. All three index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are rising. So, the short-term trend is still bullish, but is under a little pressure at least in the DIA. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs remain strongly bullish with all three at or very near all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are extended too above their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the top of its overbought territory. So, while both sides still have room to run if they can gather the momentum, the Bears have much more slack to work with. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, they are split evenly with 5 green and 5 red. However, the biggest movers are all on the red side (and that includes 3 of the top 4 dollar-volume leaders in the market). So, be careful here at quarter end.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a little divergence in what was a little bit of a Bear trap.  SPY gapped down 0.28%, DIA gapped down 0.15%, and QQQ gapped down 0.65%.  At that point, SPY and QQQ began slow, steady rallies back across the gap until 3 p.m.  From there, SPY and QQQ sold off with SPY ending up at its opening level while QQQ remained in the middle of its morning gap.  While this was happening, DIA sold off slowly all day long, closing very near its lows.  This gave us a white-bodied candle with large upper wick that bounced up off its T-line (8ema) in the QQQ.  At the same time, SPY printed a gap-down, Gravestone Doji.  Meanwhile, the DIA printed a gap-down, black-bodied candle that closed just 24 cents above its T-line.  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  (Far below average in the SPY and QQQ.)

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were red as Industrials (-0.53%) out in front leading the market lower.  Meanwhile, Energy (+0.95%) was by far the biggest mover and the sector that held up best.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.28%, DIA lost 0.40%, and QQQ lost 0.36%. VXX fell slightly to close at a still very low 13.08 and T2122 climbed just a bit but remains in its mid-range at 64.94.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.249% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.55% to close at $81.88 per barrel.  So, Monday saw a gap lower and then divergence with the DIA following through to the downside while SPY rallied and then fell back to the opening level while the QQQ rallied back across the gap before fading back into the middle of its morning gap.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday was limited, but included February Building Permits, which came in above expectations at 1.524 million (compared to a forecast of 1.518 million and much stronger than the previous 1.489 million).  Later, February New Home Sales were lower than anticipate at 662k (versus a forecast of 675k and a January 664k number).

In Fed-speak news, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that he expects three rate cuts by the FOMC in 2024.  In an interview with Yahoo finance, Goolsbee said, “So we’re in an uncertain state but it doesn’t feel to me like we’ve changed fundamentally the story that we’re getting (inflation) back to target”…“I was at the median for this one, (meaning he expects three rate cuts in 2024).”  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook told a Harvard event, “Although housing-services inflation remains quite high, the current low rate of increase on new rental leases suggests that it will continue to fall.”  She went on to say, “The risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.”  “Nonetheless, fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time.”

After the close, BKKT missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Monday, the CEO and Chairman, and Head of Commercial Planes Division all announced they are stepping down from BA in the midst of the 737 MAX quality fiasco.  At the same time, IR announced it would buy ILC Dover from New Mountain Capital for $2.33 billion.  (The move will increase IR’s presence in the life sciences market and ILC Dover had $700 million in 2023.  The deal is expected to close in Q2.)  Later, ABBV announced it will buy LABP for $212 million ($20.42/share).  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that TSLA and another unnamed US automaker are in negotiations to license battery technology from China’s CATL.  (CATL already has an existing partnership with F.)  Later, Reuters reported that the workers at VLKAF (Volkswagen) Chattanooga, TN plant will vote on whether to join the UAW on April 17-19.  (UAW told Reuters that more than 70% of plant employees had signed cards requesting the vote.)  At the same time, LCID announced it will receive $1 billion in capital from an affiliate of the Saudi Wealth Fund.  Elsewhere, after the close, DELL announced it will cut an unspecified number of jobs as part of a broader cost reduction initiative.  Also after the close, SON said it will raise prices on all grades of uncoated, recycled paperboard sold in Europe.  (The hike 50-60 Euro per ton hikes are set to take effect on deliveries beginning April 15.)  At the same time, VSTO said it will evaluate a revised acquisition offer from MNC Capital.  The new offer is $37.50 per share came after the original $35/share offer was rejected.  Meanwhile, it is worth noting that RDDT spiked 35% on Monday, closing up 30%.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, TNXP announced it had received FDA “Rare Pediatric Disease” designation and approval for its TNX-2900 drug.  (This is something of an upgrade from the 2022 FDA designation of the drug as an “orphaned drug.”)    At the same time, AAPL was hit with a flurry of Consumer lawsuits accusing the phonemaker of monopolizing its smartphone ecosystem.  (These suits look to piggyback on the DOJ and 16-state antitrust case filed against AAPL last week over the same matters.)  Later, US Energy Sec. Granholm announced $6 billion in US funding to support emission reduction projects.  This included CLF and CENX (each getting $500 million), XOM (getting $332 million), KHC (getting $171 million), OI (getting $125 million), DOW (getting $95 million), among the 33 total projects being supported.  At the same time, AMRX announced it had received FDA approval for its generic ear infection treatment.  Elsewhere, MAXN has filed a patent infringement suit against CSIQ.  Later, the US Dept. of Agriculture announced it has detected avian flu in milk from cattle in KS and TX.  (The USDA, FDA, and CDC are investigating dairy cattle in KS, TX, and NM following symptoms in the cattle.  For now, the USDA said there is no concern about milk safety.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Singapore (+1.10%), Hong Kong (+0.88%), and South Korea (+0.71%) led the region higher.  Meanwhile, India (-0.42%) was the biggest loser on the day.  In Europe, a similar but greener picture is taking shape at midday.  11 of the 15 bourses are in the green with the CAC (+0.20%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+0.02%) leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward markets following the rest of the globe higher.  The DIA implies a +0.21%open, the SPY is implying a +0.37% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  A the same time, 10-year bond yields are down slightly to 4.241% and Oil (WTI) is up another third of a percent to $82.21 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes February Core Durable Goods Orders and February Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m.), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (9 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ESLT, MKC, and SNX.  Then, after the close, CNXC, GME, and NOAH report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Feb. Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, despite being a market holiday, Feb. Core PCE Price Index, Feb. PCE Price Index, Feb. Personal Spending, Feb. Goods Trade Balance, Feb. Retail Inventories are reported and Fed Chair Powell speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CCL, CTAS, LE, PAYX, UNF, FUL, JEF, MLKN, and RH report.  On Thursday, we hear from AZUL, DOOO, MSM, and WBA.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled since it is a market holiday.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Monday that legal issues are hindering the development of US lithium.  A 1972 federal law gives authority over water extraction (brine pumped into drilled holes, pumped back out, and lithium is extracted from the water) to the federal government. However, states (in particular seven GOP-run states) are passing their own regulations, attempting to override federal control or at least have their own rules.  In most cases, these rules have not been written yet at the state levels.  Since the federal government can’t stop states from passing their own laws and regulations, things are at a standstill.  CVX, XOM, TTI, ALB, and others have lithium projects on hold not wanting to get into operations that are very likely to end in litigation over the activity.

In commodity news, Russia limited its crude exports, presumably at least partially as a result of recent successful Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil infrastructure.  The promise of an Israeli cease fire also took a hit after the UN Security Council demanded one and Israel (who had demanded that the US veto the measure) wrongly lied about the US and played the victim, accused the US of turning their back on Israel and not caring about Israeli blood.  The net result being that oil shipments through the Red sea and Suez Canal are not on the table for the foreseeable future. Combined, the factors support higher oil prices.  Meanwhile, Cocoa prices hit an all-time high after bean blight and climate-caused hotter and dryer conditions in the Ivory Coast (the world’s largest cocoa producer) have driven prices up 39% year-to-date.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to bounce back and are in control this morning. All three major index ETFs opened higher and have printed white-body candles since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are rising. However, DIA is by far the weakest of these moves and remains near its T-line. So, the short-term trend is still bullish, but is under a little pressure at least in the DIA. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs remain bullish. In terms of extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, both sides still have room to run if they can gather the momentum. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, all 10 are in the green during the premarket. The market dollar-volume leaders TSLA, AMD, and NVDA are leading that group higher this morning. This should help the Bulls across the market at least early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were mostly flat Friday, but did diverge to an extent.  The SPY opened dead flat, DIA did the same, and QQQ “gapped” down 0.10%.  At that point, DIA sold off in a modest way until 12:30 p.m. before trading dead until 2:30 p.m., and then finally selling off again into the close.  Meanwhile, after the open, SPY meandered sideways all day but mostly on the down side of the flat line.  At the same time, after the open, QQQ chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m. before modestly rallying until 2 p.m. and then selling off back toward flat the rest of the day.  The biggest move of the day was a lock step selloff across all three major index ETFs the last 5 minutes of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top in the QQQ, a small black-bodied candle in SPY, and a large, almost Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red as Financial Services (-1.14%) out in front leading the market lower.  Meanwhile, Utilities (+0.02%) was the only sector to cling onto the green area (barely) although Technology (-0.06%) was also barely in the red.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.19%, DIA lost 0.81%, and QQQ gained 0.08%. VXX rose by almost half a percent to close at a still very low 13.13 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 62.60.  10-year bond yields fell again to 4.202% and Oil (WTI) fell just a fraction of a percent to close at $80.87 per barrel.  So, Friday seemed like markets took the day off and Thursday’s afternoon profit-taking.  Even so, QQQ managed to close at a new all-time high close (although it did not print a new all-time high).  Of the three major index ETFs, the only significant mover was DIA, which gave back ground all day after closing at all-time highs the previous two days.  Still, despite this action, SPY closed the week up 2.23%, DIA up 1.95%, and QQQ up 2.87%.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below expectations at 210k (compared to a forecast of 212k and a prior week 212k value).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were a bit below predictions as well at 1,807k (versus a 1,820k forecast and up a bit from the prior week’s 1,803k reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was better than anticipated at +3.2 (compared to the -2.6 forecast but still down from the February +5.2 value).  In terms of jobs, the Philly Fed. Mfg. Employment Index was down but better than the prior month at -9.6 (versus February’s -10.3 reading).  Later, the S&P Global Mfg. PMI came in better than expected at 52.5 (compared to a 51.8 forecast that the previous 52.2 value).  At the same time, the S&P Global Services PMI was slightly lower than predictions at 51.7.2 (versus the 52.0 forecast and down slightly from February’s 52.3 reading).  This gave us a S&P Global Composite PMI in line with anticipated numbers at 52.2 (compared to the 52.2 forecast and down a bit from the February 52.5 number).  Later, February Existing Home Sales were much stronger than was expected at 4.38 million (versus a 3.95 million forecast and the 4.00 million January reading). Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $28 billion reduction with a current balance of $7.514 trillion (down from the prior week’s $7.542 trillion).

There was no major economic news scheduled for Friday. However, Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governor Bowman heard from six businessmen in a “Fed Listens” roundtable.  All of the speakers, derided the FOMC for raising rates too fast and too far.  Among the speakers were a CO farmer/rancher, a MI small manufacturer consulting firm, a FL food bank operator, and three others.  That capped a big week for Central Banks where the Bank of Japan ended negative rates for the first time in decades, the Swiss National Bank surprised everyone by cutting rates (citing progress on inflation), and the Fed did nothing but struck a more dovish tone, reaffirming that they still foresee three rate cuts this year.

In Fed-speak news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (hawk) started what analysts expect to be a trend of Fed members talking more hawkish after the more dovish statement and Fed Chair Powell remarks Wednesday. (Analysts think the Fed members now need to reset or dampen market expectations.) Bostic said Friday, “I’m definitely less confident than I was in December” (that inflation will continue to fall to the 2% target).  He continued, “If we have an economy that is growing above potential, and we have an economy where unemployment is at levels that were deemed to be unimaginable without pricing pressures, and if we have an economy where inflation is moderating … those are good things. That gives us space for patience.”  He went on to say that he now expects a single quarter-point rate cut in 2024 (instead of the two he had projected in December). 

In stock news, on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that AAPL held talks with BIDU (Chinese) about using that company’s AI technology in its iPhones and other devices inside China. At the same time, GILD announced it completed its acquisition of CBAY for $4.3 billion.  (The deal was first announced February 12, 2024.)  Later, STLA said it will lay off about 400 salaried workers to cut costs, effective March 31.  (This is about 2% of STLA salaried workers.)  STLA cited both competitive pressures and the “unprecedented uncertainty” of the market (implying risk of change to electric vehicle markets under some political scenarios). At the same time, AXNX announced its board had approved a merger agreement with BSX during a special meeting.  The deal is expected to close in Q2 of 2024, subject to antitrust approvals.  Later, a digital marketing company partially owned by WMT (and which has PEP and KO as major customers) filed for an IPO to trade under the ticker IBTA.  At the same time, the MASI board of directors authorized the separation of its consumer business from its core healthcare operations.  No timeline or specifics were announced.  Later, Bloomberg reported that TSLA has cut production at its Chinese plant after sluggish growth in EV sales and intense competition from lower-priced competitors.  (Shanghai TSLA workers are now working 5-day instead of 6.5-day work weeks.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA announced SLTA (Chrysler) is recalling 286k vehicles due to airbag inflator manufacturing defects on side curtain airbags.  (The recall impacts 2018 – 2021 Dodge Charger and Chrysler 300 models.)   At the same time, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent a 40-page pre-application readiness assessment to TerraPower (private and partially funded by Bill Gates as well as the US Dept. of Energy).  The assessment said the company’s planned application for a construction permit needs work, which critics told Reuters may significantly delay the project.  The natrium reactor they are developing uses low-cost, low-enriched uranium.  Later, AMZN filed an appeal of the $35 million fine from French regulators (in January) for setting up systems to monitor employee activity.  At the same time, the FDA granted emergency use approval to IVVD’s PEMGARDA antibody prophylactic for COVID-19 exposure.  At the same time, the FDA granted full approval to ABBV’s ELAHERE ovarian cancer drug.  Later, the Biden Administration (as one might expect) filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court urging the court to refuse to hear Elon Musk’s appeal of lower court rulings that his consent decree with the SEC was valid.  (Musk is appealing the SEC’s right to act against him for deceiving investors when he tweeted that he had “funding secured” to take TSLA private in 2018, when no such thing was true.  Musk paid a $20 million fine, was removed as TSLA’s Chair, and agreed to let TSLA lawyers approve his posts about TSLA.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Shenzhen (-1.49%), Japan (-1.16%), and Shanghai (-0.71%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (+0.74%), Australia (+0.53%), and India (+0.39%) were the only gainers.  In Europe, a similar picture is taking shape at midday with only three of 15 exchanges in the green.  The CAC (-0.40%), DAX (-0.05%), and FTSE (-0.42%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.61% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are at 4.232% and Oil (WTI) is up four-tenths of a percent to $80.96 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to Feb. Building Permits (8 a.m.) and Feb. New Home Sales (10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  After the close, BKKT reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Feb. Core Durable Goods Orders, Feb. Durable Goods Orders, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Feb. Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, despite being a market holiday, Feb. Core PCE Price Index, Feb. PCE Price Index, Feb. Personal Spending, Feb. Goods Trade Balance, Feb. Retail Inventories are reported and Fed Chair Powell speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ESLT, MKC, SNX, CNXC, GME, and NOAH.  Then Wednesday, CCL, CTAS, LE, PAYX, UNF, FUL, JEF, MLKN, and RH report.  On Thursday, we hear from AZUL, DOOO, MSM, and WBA.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled since it is a market holiday.

In government shutdown news, on Friday, the House of Representatives finally voted to approve the six spending bills that make up 70% of the US budget for the period up until September 30.  This happened in the last morning with the 1,000 pages of bills delivered to the Senate just after noon.  Even this was only possible because House Speaker Johnson prohibited members from bringing their election posturing amendments to the floor for a vote.  In the Senate, rules don’t permit that kind of denial of proposing amendments, meaning that votes on headline-seeking Senators had written (none of which have a chance of approval) can only be stopped by a 60-vote supermajority.  The short version is that the Senate were unable to pass the bills by the midnight deadline and a partial government shutdown started.  However, the adults in the room (maybe read that as Senators not facing a close election in the fall) had more than 60 votes and were able to end the amendment proposal process and force a vote on the bills as sent from the House early Saturday morning (shortly after 2 a.m.).  They passed 74-24.  Fortunately, President Biden had anticipated this and told federal agencies to act as if there was a budget. So despite the technical shutdown, there was little if any impact.

In Budget passage fallout, GOP hardliners in the House immediately labeled the budget, which had passed the House by a 286-134 vote, a capitulation to Republicans and the deep state.  Representative Roy (TX), a leading MAGA member, said it the bill was a “complete and total failure and a capitulation by Republicans. And (GOP) leadership worked the deal, so it’s on leadership.”  He went on to say he would not be backing the reelection campaigns of any Republicans that had supported the budget.  The notorious “Jewish space laser” Rep. Greene (GA) went even further by submitting a motion to vacate the Speakership.  However, Greene did not file it as a “privileged motion” (which would have forced a vote within two business days).  This means, her action was just political theatre (about getting headlines rather than actually doing something). Her motion changed nothing and will never be called for a vote until she requests it. So, we are still in the situation where any GOP Rep. can file for a vote to vacate the Speaker within two days at any time in the future (just like before).  Of course, if a vote is ever called, Johnson has the option of reaching out to the Democrats for the votes to save his job (and at least one Dem. Rep. told reporters Friday that he’d vote for Johnson since the move to vacate was childish and idiotic).  Separately, Rep. Gallagher (GOP – WI), a Committee Chairman, announced he will resign on April 19 because he was tired of dealing with the MAGA-Headline part of his party.  This may or may not impact any future Speaker vacating vote, but will at least temporarily reduce the GOP majority to 217-213 when Gallagher leaves mid-April.

In miscellaneous news, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assoc. said Friday that US companies borrowed 4% more in February to finance new equipment than they had in the same month of 2023.  This amounted to $7.9 billion.  The group also said that credit quality was better than 2023 with delinquencies and charge-offs moving in a positive direction.  The group also reported that credit approvals remained at 76%, not changed from January.  In market-related news, LSEG announced that global equity funds saw “substantial net inflows” in the week ended March 20 on optimism driven by good retail data out of China and anticipation of future rate cuts by the Fed.  LSEG says this included more than $14 billion of inflows into US equity funds (the highest since June 2023).  Elsewhere, Friday, the German Bundesbank President Nagel told Reuters it is increasingly likely the European Central Bank will be in a position to cut interest rates before it takes a summer recess, likely in June. 

With that background, it looks like the Bears are in control early this morning. All three major index ETFs opened lower and have printed black-body candles since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are rising. However, they are getting close, especially the DIA. So, the short-term trend is still bullish, but is under pressure. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs remain bullish. In terms of extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, both sides still have room to run if they can gather the momentum. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, nine of the 10 are in the red during the premarket. INTC and AMD are leading that group lower with only NFLX clinging to the green territory. This will make it a heavy lift if the Bulls are going to try to turn the markets green Monday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets gapped higher again.  The SPY gapped up 0.55%, DIA gapped up 0.34%, and QQQ gapped up a whopping 1.15%. At that point, the three major index ETFs diverged.  DIA continued to rally until 10:45 a.m. and then traded sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, SPY ground sideways along the open level until 1:50 p.m. before going into a very modest selloff right into the close, giving back part of its gap higher.  However, QQQ sold off modestly from the open, tried and failed to get back above the open in late morning and then sold off steadily all afternoon, closing more than have way back into its gap.  This action gave us new all-time high closes in all three major index ETFs.  Yet, except for DIA, markets were uncertain after the gap higher with QQQ printing a big black-bodied candle and SPY giving us a black-bodied candle with an upper wick.  DIA gave us some follow through and a white-body candle but still that upper wick.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Industrials (+0.97%) and Financials (+0.88%) led the way higher.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (-0.41%) was by far the laggard sector and only red sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.33%, DIA gained 0.69%, and QQQ gained 0.47%. VXX fell almost another percent to close at 13.07 and T2122 stayed in the top part of overbought territory at 94.35.  10-year bond yields backed off slightly to 4.271% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.31% to close at $81.02 per barrel.  So, markets followed through on their loave of the Fed by gapping strongly higher.  However, from that point there was indecisions and divergence among the major index ETFs.  In short, we may be climbing the wall of worry.  This all happened less than average volume in the SPY and QQQ and average volume in the DIA. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below expectations at 210k (compared to a forecast of 212k and a prior week 212k value).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were a bit below predictions as well at 1,807k (versus a 1,820k forecast and up a bit from the prior week’s 1,803k reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was better than anticipated at +3.2 (compared to the -2.6 forecast but still down from the February +5.2 value).  In terms of jobs, the Philly Fed. Mfg. Employment Index was down but better than the prior month at -9.6 (versus February’s -10.3 reading).  Later, the S&P Global Mfg. PMI came in better than expected at 52.5 (compared to a 51.8 forecast that the previous 52.2 value).  At the same time, the S&P Global Services PMI was slightly lower than predictions at 51.7.2 (versus the 52.0 forecast and down slightly from February’s 52.3 reading).  This gave us a S&P Global Composite PMI in line with anticipated numbers at 52.2 (compared to the 52.2 forecast and down a bit from the February 52.5 number).  Later, February Existing Home Sales were much stronger than was expected at 4.38 million (versus a 3.95 million forecast and the 4.00 million January reading). Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $28 billion reduction with a current balance of $7.514 trillion (down from the prior week’s $7.542 trillion).

After the close, AHR, LULU, NKE, and WS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AIR and FDX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LULU lowered its guidance and said store visits were down so far this year, as well as NKE warning that it will take a hit later this year as it realigns merchandise to current customer demands.  However, FDX narrowed its guidance, raising its lower estimate while lowering its upper estimate.  FDX also said it plans to buyback $500 million worth of stock in this quarter and approved a new $5 billion repurchase program.

In stock news, on Thursday, PARA said they were not interested in the unsolicited $11 billion offer from APO for PARA’s Hollywood film studio.  Later, RTX announced it had received a $1.2 billion contract from Germany to supply Patriot air defense missiles.  At the same time, CLX announced it had sold its Argentina operations to private equity firm Apex Capital for an as yet undisclosed sum.  (Argentine operations contributed 2% to CLX revenues. And Reuters reports CLX will take a $233 million charge related to the deal.)  Later, SMCI attempted and then aborted an attempt to sell $2 billion of stock to support AI-related expansion.  (GS tried to sell the stock for them but canceled on a lack of buyers.  GS planned to try again after the close Thursday.)  At the same time, SCLX announced it had set a $25/month maximum cap on patient out-of-pocket expenses for its non-opioid pain medications.  Later, Reuters reported that MSFT had agreed to pay $650 million to Inflection (an AI startup) and also hire all of the company’s employees as part of an acquisition. At the same, 18,000 LUV ramp and operations workers approved a new 5-year contract with the airline.  (The deal offers pay 6.6% above UAL’s previously industry leading wages.)  After the close, Reuters reported that NVO’s hit weight loss drug Wegovy will be covered for heart patients by Medicare.  (This could lead to other insurance coverage of the high-margin drug.)  At the same time, NKLA announced it has opened its first high-pressure modular hydrogen refueling station in CA.  Finally, in its first day of trading, RDDT closed up 48% after pricing its IPO Wednesday night at $34, opening at $47 and closing at $50.44.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, as expected, the US Dept. of Justice (and 16 states Attorneys General) sued AAPL in an antitrust case striking at the core monopoly “walled garden” strategy of preventing competitors to have access to the hardware or software of its iPhones (but also watches and tablets) without paying a 30% commission.  (AAPL stock fell 4.07% on the news.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported EU investigators had begun new investigations into AAPL and GOOGL over their compliance with the recent EU Digital Markets Act.  Later, the GOP controlled (Jordan) US House Judicial Committee subpoenaed an activist group that promotes ESG issues on corporate boards.  The GOP’s essential idea is to harass the group under the idea it has violated antitrust laws.  The same committee, using the same logic, also subpoenaed BLK and STT who have funds that consider ESG with other factors in determining investments.  At the same time, the FDIC proposed new guidelines for scrutiny of mergers of banks with more than $100 billion in assets.  The guidance was approved on a 3-2 party line vote with GOP members saying there was already an institutional bias against bank mergers.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the CEOs of AAL, UAL, V, and MA have refused to testify before a US Senate hearing into credit card program competition.  After the close, AXNX announced it has partially won a patent dispute brought by MDT.  The Patent Board invalidated 10 of MDT’s 15 patent claims.  Also after the close, the 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the Biden Administration and against big tobacco companies who alleged cigarette pack warning labels violated the company’s first amendment rights.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side with seven of the 12 exchanges in negative territory for the day.  Hong Kong (-2.16%), Shenzhen (-1.21%), and Shanghai (-0.95%) led the region lower.  (This happened as China seemed to loosen its grip on the yuan, letting it slip to a level not seen since November. This weighed on market sentiment toward China entities.) Meanwhile, in Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape on more moderate moves.  Eight of the 15 European exchanges are in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.11%), DAX (+0.13%), and FTSE (+0.77%) lead the region on volume as always in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.245% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $81.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Fed Chair Powell speaking at 9 a.m. (Vice-Chair Jefferson and Governor Bowman are on the same event slate), Fed Vice Chair (Bank Supervision) speaking at noon, and Fed member Bostic speaking at 4 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Friday.

In government shutdown news, on Thursday, the House finally released the 1012 page text of the six spending bills, which total to $1.2 trillion. The Speaker of the House has decided to wave the GOP rule of three days to read any bill.  So, the House will vote on the bills Friday after 1 day.  Senate Majority Leader Schumer said assuming the House can pass the bills, it will require bipartisan action (and Senators not reading the final bill) in order for get a Senate vote on the bills before the Friday night shutdown deadline.  However, this means it is possible the shutdown can be averted, albeit with many “cut corners” such as not reading the bills being voted on.  Although these six bills total $1.2 trillion, the overall 2024 budget will be $1.66 trillion.

In miscellaneous news, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly became the first major central bank to cut rates in this cycle.  The SNB cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%. Meanwhile, a judicial panel consolidated nine lawsuits challenging the SEC sending the consolidated case to the conservative-packed (10 GOP appointees and 1 Dem appointed judge) US 8^th Circuit Court of Appeals.  Elsewhere, China tightened rules for consumer finance companies in an effort to force consolidation among lenders.  (This group offers $120 billion annually in high-interest loans to individuals normally shut out of traditional banks in that country.)  Of 31 lenders in this group, 10 do not meet the new stricter capital requirements.  In other news, for the bond market watchers, the inversion of two-year and 10-year bond yields reached a milestone, exceeding the record 1978 inversion duration of 624 days.  Finally, US Energy Sec Granholm told industry executives that the current pause on new US LNG projects will be lifted within a year.  (The US is already the largest LNG exporter in the world and, once lifted, new export terminal projects are likely to make the US a dominant player in the global natural gas market.)

With that background, it looks like the market is slightly positive but mostly undecided on a Friday morning. All three major index ETFs are just on the green side of flat, but all three are also printing small-body, indecisive candles in the premarket. The SPY and QQQ have tiny red body candles and the DIA a tiny white-body candle so far in the early session. Of course, all three remains above their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are rising. So, the short-term trend is still clearly bullish. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs have all recovered and are bullish again. In terms of extension, things are not as extended as the three major index ETFs are not quite as stretched above the T-line. However, the T2122 indicator remains in the upper part of its overbought territory. So, we should expect rest (consolidation) or pullback soon but that does not mean today necessarily. (Remember that markets can remain extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on a turn too early.) This means both sides still have room to run if they can gather the momentum, but the bears have more slack to work with now. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, six of the 10 are in the green during the premarket. However, the two biggest movers, TSLA (-3.49%), and NVDA (-0.40%) are to the downside…and they are the heaviest dollar-volume stocks in the market. This means there is indecision even among the market movers. This tends to point toward the market being indecisive. Also, remember that this is a Friday…payday while all three major ETFs are up 2.5% or more on the week. This would certainly seem like a time to take profits. For us, it means prepare your account for the weekend by taking profits, hedging, lightening positions or whatever else you need to do.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets traded dead flat on Wednesday until the Fed statements at 2 p.m.  The SPY opened unchanged, DIA gapped down 0.21%, and gapped up 0.30%.  However, from that open we saw very flat trading in all three major index ETFs until 2 p.m. Then, all three spiked for five minutes, chopped sideways for 25 minutes, sold off another five minutes.  At that point Fed Chair Powell began to speak and the Bulls were off to the races the rest of the day.  All three major index ETFs closed very near their highs of the day.  The action gave us large, white-bodied, candles with small lower wicks and almost no upper wick.  SPY and DIA both closed at new all-time high closes after printing new all-time highs.  QQQ closed within 0.40% of its all-time high close.  All three crossed back above their T-line (8ema) during the session.

On the day, all 10 sectors were green as Basic Materials (+1.93%) was out in front leading the market higher and Healthcare (+0.09%) was by far the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.92%, DIA gained 1.05%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. VXX fell another 2.08% to close at 13.19 and T2122 shot up into the top part of overbought territory at 95.36.  10-year bond yields backed off again to 4.277% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.95% to close at $81.84 per barrel.  So, on the March Fed Day, there was nothing like bad news or at least unexpected news.  That was the only excuse the Bulls needed to run hard again…after waiting for the Fed to make sure.  This all happened less than average volume in the SPY and QQQ and slightly above-average volume in the DIA. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which came in with a larger drawdown than expected at -1.952 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -0.900 million barrels and a bit more than the prior week’s 1.536-million-barrel drawdown).  Later, the Fed held the Fed Funds Rate at 5.50%.  Meanwhile, the Fed Q1 Current Interest Rate came in at 4.6%, down half of a percent from the 5.4% in December.  At the same time, the Fed Q1 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection was 3.9%, down sharply from December’s 4.6% projection.  Looking out further, the Fed Q1 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection also fell a half percent to 3.1% from December’s 3.6%.  Finally, Fed Q1 Longer Term Interest Rate Projection rose a tick to 2.6%, up from 2.5% in December.

In Fed news, as expected the FOMC kept its benchmark Fed Funds Rates steady at 5.25% – 5.50% (a 23-year high).  The Fed indicated that, on average, they still expect three rate cuts in 2024.  (The majority of voters favor three.)  This was a relief for the markets that had started to believe the naysayers who had already begun talking of two or even just one cut this year.  Still, the FOMC is more hawkish than in recent statements and the indication is the half of the board members (voters and non-voters) expect less than three cuts. Interestingly, the dot plots (average interest rate forecasts of FOMC members) found current rates significantly lower than they did in December.  They also expect one year and two years out interest rates also to be significantly lower than they had predicted in December.  However, their forecast for long-term interest rates increased by a tenth of a percent.  All-in-all, some analysts, including CNBC’s Steve Leesman seemed to think nothing major had changed, with the exception that the Fed believes the job market is still strong and not as much moderating as the previous statement.  He said there was greater consensus among FOMC members with closer clustering of dot plot inputs.  This could be seen as just a bit more hawkish in the longer-term, but with a dovish mid-term view (removing one rate cut next year while leaving 2024 alone).

During his presser, Fed Chair Powell said, “The economy is strong, inflation has come way down,” … “and that gives us the ability to approach this question carefully and feel more confident that inflation is moving down sustainably at 2% when we take that step to begin dialing back our restrictive policy.”  “(Right now) we believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”  Also as expected, Powell said “We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate.” … “(However) if there were significant weakening in the data, particularly in the labor market, that could also be a reason for us to begin the process of reducing rates.”  While addressing the future, Powell said “My instinct would be that rates will not go back down to the very low levels that prevailed before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of 2020.”  (This seemed to indicate that Powell felt rates had been kept too low for too long prior to the pandemic.)  With regard to Fed Balance Sheet reductions (quantitative tightening), the Chair said “It will be appropriate to slow the pace of run-off fairly soon.” 

After the close, CHWY, GES, KBH, LX, and MU all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, SCS, and WOR reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, FIVE missed on both the top and bottom line.  It is worth noting that FIVE lowered its guidance while MU raised its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday, APA announced it has sold its entire stake of KNTK for $441 million.  Later, Reuters reported that 20,000 LUV flight attendants have reached another tentative deal with the company and the union will vote on the new deal, after rejecting the previous tentative deal.  (The rejected deal offered a 20% raise for 2024 and 3% annual raises after that through 2028.)  At the same time, INTC announced a plant to invest $100 billion in four states between now and 2027 to revitalize US chip manufacturing. Later, Reuters reported APO offered $11 billion for PARA’s Hollywood film studio.  At the same time, SNPS announced it would be seeking a buyer for its Software Integrity business unit.  Later, UNH said it has restored its medical claim processing services (using AMZN cloud services) and will begin working on the month backlog of claims.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, VZ announced it will begin complying with a 2022 FCC mandate that requires broadband providers to display a comparison label (similar to food nutrition labels).  VZ is the first company to comply with smaller internet providers having until October to comply.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) will recall 116k vehicles related to an unsecured 48v cable.  Later, the FDA approved a Phase II clinical trial for PBYI’s breast cancer treatment.  At the same time, the French competition authority hit GOOGL with a $272 million fine for breaches of intellectual property rules related to its dealings with media publishers (stealing content to feed AI).  Later, INTC signed an agreement with the Biden Administration to receive $8.5 billion in grants and up to $11 billion in loans for building plants in AZ, OH, OR, and NM.  Elsewhere, in the EU, META, MSFT, MTCH, and Elon Musk’s X filed amicus briefs supporting Epic Games and claiming that AAPL had failed to honor a court-ordered injunction governing payments from its app store.  Later, the FCC announced it is investigating AMZN for selling illegal electronic products, such as Wifi, GPS, and security camera jammers.  After the close, Bloomberg reported that the Dept. of Justice would sue AAPL for antitrust violations by blocking competitors from accessing hardware and software features on its iPhone.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  South Korea (+2.41%), Japan (+2.03%), and Hong Kong (+1.93%) led the way for the 10 gaining exchanges with only Shenzhen (-0.36%) and Shanghai (-0.08%) in the red.  In Europe, the same picture is taking shape at midday.  Only two of 15 exchanges are showing red as the CAC (-0.20%), DAX (+0.38%), and FTSE (+1.02%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher.  The DIA implies a +0.22% open, the SPY is implying a +0.36% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down sharply to 4.233% and Oil (WTI) is off half of a percent to $80.84 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed. Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), Feb. Existing Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ASO, ACN, BZUN, CMC, DRI, DBI, FDS, LU, TITN, and WGO.  Then, after the close, AIR, FDX, LULU, NKE, and WS report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday the only scheduled news is Fed member Bostic speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, there are no major earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In government shutdown news, on Wednesday, the House missed its deadline to get out the written language of the six spending bills.  (Reporters were told the bills will be between 1000 to 2000 pages.)  House Republicans have a rule requiring that they are given three full days to read the text prior to a vote on any bill.  This would mean the House could not vote until at least Saturday night (if the written version got out last night) or violate that rule.  House Speaker Johnson told Reporters Wednesday that he hopes to wave that rule because he wants to give allowances for the fact many of the Representatives (of both parties) will be travelling and gone for the weekend.  Some GOP critics (MAGA) called for a shutdown to avoid breaking the GOP rule.  Of course, none of that even considers the time needed in the more procedure-laden Senate.  (The Senate Majority Leader cannot just call a vote as the Speaker can do in the House.)  The short version of this story is that unless another continuing resolution is passed, we are extremely likely to see a partial government shutdown starting one minute after midnight Saturday morning.  For what it is worth, the six spending bills give a budget increase to defense while holding other areas at the 2023 budget level, giving us a $1.66 trillion.

In miscellaneous news, the EPA released revised average production emissions rules for automakers.  The new rules do not take effect until 2027 and are greatly softened from the earlier version of the rules after heavy pressure from TM, GM, F, STLA, etc.  Reportedly, the argument that swayed the softening of restrictions was that hybrid vehicles (internal combustion plus battery-operated) actually cause less long-term CO2 despite higher emissions, because they have smaller batteries and their manufacture causes a smaller carbon footprint than full-electric vehicles after electricity and battery production are considered.  Still, the new rule has the strongest restrictions to date when and if they come into effect.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are pushing again this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. However, they are putting in small, black-bodied candles so far in the early session with morning news yet to come. All three are above their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are rising. So, the short-term trend is now clearly bullish. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs have all recovered and are bullish again. In terms of extension, we are starting to seem a little stretched above the T-line, especially in the QQQ and the T2122 indicator is now in the upper part of its overbought territory. So, we should expect rest (consolidation) or pullback soon but that does not mean today necessarily. This means both sides still have room to run if they can gather the momentum, but the bears have more slack to work with now. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, nine of the 10 are in the green during the premarket with only AAPL and its regulatory issues lagging. (Again, it is the AI names of NVDA, AMD, and INTC leading the way.) This tends to point toward another green day, since it is hard to fight the sheer dollar flows from those 10 tickers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher Monday on AI reports.  SPY gapped up 0.84%, DIA lagged gapping up 0.36%, and QQQ gapped up 1.12%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs faded the gap modestly for a few minutes, with SPY and QQQ not even really getting below the open.  Then from 10 a.m. all three rallied to their highs by 10:30 a.m.  From that point, SPY and QQQ sold off until 1 p.m. before chipping sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA chopped sideways around its opening level all day.  This action gave us three gap-up, indecisive, black-bodied candles. The DIA printed a gap-up, black, fat-body, Spinning Top that failed a retest of its T-line (8ema) from below.  At the same time, SPY and QQQ printed gap-up, black-body, Inverted Hammer candles.  The QQQ failed its retest of the T-line, but SPY stayed barely above after its gap above that average.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Technology (+0.75%) was out in front leading the market higher.  At the same time, only Healthcare (-0.23%) was in the red. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.59%, the DIA gained 0.19%, and the QQQ gained 0.82%. VXX fell 2.33% to close at 13.86 and T2122 fell a bit but remains smack in the middle of its mid-range at 47.67.  10-year bond yields climbed again to 4.328% and Oil (WTI) jumped another 2.13% to close at $82.77 per barrel. So, premarket reports about AAPL licensing GOOGL’s AI engine and services for its future iPhones led to an AI frenzy early. This led to a broader rally, but fairly quickly melted into profit-taking.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as extremely low volume in the DIA.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

After the close, STNE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

So far this morning, CAL, CNM, and TME all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, XPEV missed on the revenue line while coming in as expected on the earnings line at -$0.21/share. 

In stock news, on Monday the CEO of natural gas developer TELL stepped down and the company announced it is pursuing strategic options that include a possible sale.  At the same time, in a PR move after its recent cyberattack has crippled many healthcare providers, UNH announced it had provided over $2 billion in loans and advances to the impacted medical facilities. In addition, UNH said it is beginning distribute updated software and will gradually resume full services to medical facilities and their end customers (patients).  Later, despite the issues it faces from absorbing CS, the CEO of UBS said his bank will pursue acquisitions in the US.  (No specific targets or timeline was given other than “in coming years.”)  At the same time, STLA announced it had increased its stake in ARCH (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft maker).  STLA said it had recently acquired another 8.3 million shares through the open market.  Later, TSLA CEO Musk defended his use of the prescription drug ketamine, saying it was beneficial for shareholders.  At the same time, FSR stock plummeted again after the company announced it would pause production for six weeks effective immediately and that it had secured an additional $150 million of financing from an existing investor.  Later, BRKB announced it is speeding up its stock buyback purchases, buying about $2.3 billion in stock in the quarter as of March 6.  (BRKB bought $2.2 billion of its own stock in Q4 and a total of $9.4 billion for all of 2023.) Finally, the UAW has filed to request a unionization vote at the VLKAF (Volkswagen) plant in TN. This comes after more than 70% of employees signed cards requesting unionization. In something of a US oddity, VLKAF said it welcomes union representation (which is the norm in its European homeland, but an outlier feeling among US Automakers who fight unions tooth and nail.)

Elsewhere, ATMU announced it is officially separated from CMI and is now operating as an independent company.  At the same time, NVDA announced it had partnered with TSM and SNPS to expedite the manufacturing of its AI-focused chips by using a new NVDA-designed lithography platform.  Later, KR announce it had reached a definitive deal to sell its specialty pharmacy business to CarelonRx (a subsidiary of ELV).  Details of the deal were not released.  At the same time, NVDA announced a new GPU architecture designed specifically to enhance computing power and energy efficiency for use in AI applications.  (GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, and TSLA have endorsed the platform and are expected to be large customers through NVDA cloud providers MSFT and ORCL later in the year.)  NVDA also announced a new 800Gb/s ethernet platform for supporting intense AI computing.  (That is between 5- and 9-times faster data transfer than current data transfer speeds.)  Later, DRQ and INVX announced an all-stock deal to merge.  (DRQ shareholders will own 52% of the merged company and INVX the other 48%.)  Later, dozens and dozens of companies announced partnerships with NVDA on some sort of AI product or service (literally too many to mention).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, JOAN filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  Later, trade groups representing hedge funds sued the SEC.  The suit alleges that the new rule requiring funds that routinely buy large lots of US bonds and then sell them in smaller chunks register as broker-dealers exceeds the agency’s authority.  At the same time, a US appeals court revived REGN’s antitrust lawsuit against NVS.  Later, the competition authority in Turkey announced they had imposed interim measures on META and would take other measures to stop the sharing of user data between Instagram and Threads (both platforms owned by META) in order to take advantage of a dominant market position.  After the close, Reuters reported that on Tuesday the US Dept. of Energy is set to announce final rules which significantly soften the originally-announced rules on fuel economy.  The new rules slash (by 72% and only after 2027) electric vehicle mileage ratings to soften their impact on overall carmaker average mileage ratings.  The rule will slowly increase the percentage of EV mileage used for the calculation to a 65% reduction by 2030.  In other words, the new rules mean EVs have very little impact on average mileage of carmaker vehicles.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Eight of the 12 Asian exchanges were down with Hong Kong (-1.24%), South Korea (-1.10%), and India (-1.08%) leading the way lower.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed at midday with eight of the 15 exchanges in the green, six in the red, and one unchanged.  The CAC (+0.19%), DAX (+0.03%), and FTSE (-0.23%) lead the region on volume (as always) in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  DIA implies a -0.24% open, the SPY is implying a -0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.58% open at this hour.   At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.326% and Oil (WTI) is also flat at $82.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes February Building Permits and February Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAL, CNM, TME, and XPEV.  Then.  Then, after the close, ZTO reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, Fed Chair Press Conf., Q1 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q1 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q1 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Q1 Longer Term Interest Rate Projection are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed. Mfg. Employment, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb. Existing Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday the only scheduled news is Fed member Bostic speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, BNTX, GIS, HTHT, JKS, OLLI, PDD, SIG, CHWY, FIVE, GES, KBH, MU, SCS, and WOR report.  On Thursday, we hear from ASO, ACN, BZUN, CMC, DRI, DBI, FDS, LU, TITN, WGO, AIR, FDX, LULU, NKE, and WS.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday NASDAQ said it had resolved a glitch that had affected premarket trading.  No details of the incident were given.  However, the exchange said all systems were operating normally at the open.  Elsewhere, Energy Sec. Granholm said the administration plans to return the US strategic petroleum reserve to pre-drawdown levels by year-end.  (The reserve currently has 362 million barrels and it held 565 million barrels before the first inflation-control sale in March 2022.)  This was at least part of the cause for Oil (WTI) price increases Monday.  At the same time, 47 countries (include the EU, Japan, Canada, and numerous pacific island nations) called for a charge (tax) on global shipping to reflect the sector’s CO2 emissions.  This support has more than doubled from the 20 nations that supported it when France proposed the charge in 2023.  (The proposed charge is $150 per ton of CO2 or about $80 billion per year at current shipping volumes.)  China, Brazil, and Argentina oppose the idea.  Meanwhile, BAC and EPFR Global Data reported Monday that US equity funds saw a significant inflow of money ($56 billion) last week.

In late-breaking news, the Bank of Japan abandoned negative interest rates (for the first time since 2007), raising its short-term rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to +0.1%.  The BOJ also ended most of its asset purchases and perhaps most importantly said it will abandon the policy of buying/selling short-term bonds to control long-term bond yields. (So, the BOJ introduced the first rate tightening AND quantitative tightening in a generation on Tuesday.)  Even though the move had been widely signaled and expected, the move caused an immediate selloff in the Yen against other currencies.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are pushing back on Monday’s bullish move. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the early session. Since that point, they have all printed black body candles and are trading near the premarket lows. However, none of the three have reached the Friday close level yet. All three are back below their T-line (8ema) and all three T-lines are falling. So, the short-term trend is now clearly bearish. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend in the three major index ETFs have now all rolled over. Best case, you might say SPY and DIA are more sideways than truly bearish, but technically they meet the definition of lower highs and lower lows. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in the center of its mid-range. This means both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can gather the momentum. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, all 10 are in the red during the premarket. (It seems the blizzard of AI announcements at NVDA’s event Monday only had short-lived power.) This tends to point toward a red market Tuesday, since it is hard to fight the sheer dollar flows from those 10 tickers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets jumped lower and then, for the most part, traded sideways the rest of the day.  SPY gapped down 0.92%, DIA gapped down 0.57%, and QQQ gapped down 0.70%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways around the opening level until 11 a.m.  At that point, all three sold off again before chopping sideways the rest of the day.  The main difference is that the SPY chop had a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us gap-down, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three gapped down through their T-line (8ema) with QQQ and DIA retesting that level only to fail.  This happened on average volume in the DIA, just less-than-average volume in the SPY, and heavy volume in the QQQ on a triple witching Friday.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were green as Basic Materials (+0.44%) led the gainers.  At the same time, Technology (-1.25%) was far and away the biggest mover and dragged the whole market down.  (Just 8 tech stocks, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMD, TSLA, META, AMZN, and ADBE, six of which were in the red, traded $164 billion in stock alone on the day.)  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.99%, the DIA lost 0.79%, and the QQQ lost 1.19%. VXX rose 2.01% to close at 14.19 and T2122 climbed back into the dead center of its mid-range at 52.97.  10-year bond yields climbed again to 4.308% and Oil (WTI) fell a third of a percent to close at $81.00 per barrel.  So, triple witching was kicked off by ADBE -13.67% earnings (sales increase) disappointment.  This was followed up by disappointing Empire State Mfg. and Industrial Production numbers. For the most part, that was the story of the day.  After that rough opening and follow-through on Michigan Expectation numbers, the die was cast.

The major economic news on Friday included the February Export Price Index, which came in down but much hotter than expected at +0.8% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% but lower than the January +0.9% reading).  At the same time, February Import Price Index was down briskly, just as expected, at +0.3% (versus a +0.3% forecast and down from January’s +0.8% value).  Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was far worse than predicted at -20.90 (compared to the -7.00 forecast and the -2.40 Feb. reading).  Later, February Industrial Production increased at +0.1% (compared to the 0.0% flat forecast and the January -0.5% value).  In terms of consumer thoughts, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment was down and a bit lower than anticipated at 76.5 (versus a forecast of 77.1 and even the previous reading of 76.9).  Michigan Consumer Expectations were even lower at 74.6 (compared to the forecast of 75.1 and the 75.2 prior value).  At the same time, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations remains stable at 3.0% (versus a forecast of 3.1% and the prior reading of 3.0%). Finally, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations also remains flat at 2.9% (compared to a forecast and prior reading of 2.9%).

In stock news, on Friday, Reuters reported that the TSLA Germany workforce will elect a new work council (union leadership) this week.  Later, Reuters also reported the CLF is now considering a much lower bid for X than it had previously made, if the Nippon Steel acquisition of X falls through (is scuttled by the government).  At the same time, AMZN announced it will hold a six-day Spring Sale beginning Wednesday.  This will include, but not be limited to, deals for Prime members only.  Later, INTT announced it is delaying its 2023 annual report due to a need to restate its Q3 financials. Elsewhere, NVDA announced its in-person GPU technology conference (the first in 5 years) will begin Monday.  (The conference will cover AI and GPU, or computer graphics card, technologies.)  At the same time, HTZ announced it had hired Gil West, former COO of DAL as its new CEO.  After the close, X defied political opposition and filed regulatory paperwork saying it expects the $14.9 billion sale to Nippon Steel to close this year.  Later, Reuters reported that TTE will restart its gasoline-producing (238k barrels per day) Port Arthur TX cracker over the weekend.  After the close, in another blow, a BA 737-800 was found to missing an external panel and was forced to return and landed safely in OR Friday.  That flight was operated by UAL.  On Saturday, Reuters reported TSLA will raise the price of its Model Y cars by $1,000 in certain European countries on March 22.  At the same time, Reuters also reported that MCD’s outage on Friday lasted more than 12 hours with some stores, even in the US, unable to accept app orders and even cash as its digital systems were down.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, RBGLY (Reckitt Benckiser) said it would appeal the $60 million jury verdict (announced Thursday) against its Mead Johnson subsidiary.  (The jury found the company negligent for not disclosing risks on its baby formula labelling.)  At the same time, AAPL agreed to pay $490 million to settle a class-action lawsuit from shareholders who alleged CEO Cook defrauded investors by concealing falling iPhone demand in China.  Later, ALTM announced that its operations won’t be affected by an Argentine court ruling halting new environmental permits for mining operations.  At the same time, TSLA settled a racial discrimination lawsuit by a former employee.  (The terms were not disclosed, but both sides dropped their appeals and the original jury award was $137 million.)  Later, an FDA advisory board voted 11-0 to recommend the approval of LEGN’s CARVYKTI multiple myeloma treatment.  (The FDA approval vote is scheduled for April 5.)  At the same time, the FDA approved XHANCE nasal spray from OPTN.  (The same treatment under other names has been available for years.)  Later, a IN jury found TSLA 70% liable for an employee car crash involving a company truck.  The jury awarded the injured motorist $42 million of the $191 million the plaintiff had been seeking.  Elsewhere, RDDT received a letter from the FTC saying that the agency is conducting a non-public inquiry into the company.  (The inquiry is rumored to be in reference to selling user data to AI companies.)  Later, the finance unit of VLKAF (Volkswagen) agreed to pay $48.75 million to settle an SEC lawsuit accusing the company and its former CEO of defrauding investors in a bond offering.  After the close, META won a Brazilian court order overturning a previous ruling that barred the company from using that name in Brazil. Also after the close, the NHTSB said it has begun an investigation into a fatal crash between a F Mach-E electric Mustang (using partial automation or driver assistance) and a HMC CR-V.  On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the state of VA are investigating META with a grand jury hearing testimony in relation to how the FaceBook platform facilitated and profited from illegal sale of drugs.  (META commented that they cooperate with law enforcement authorities.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with only three of 12 exchanges in the red.  Japan (+2.67%) Shenzhen (+1.46%), Taiwan (+1.00%), and Shenzhen (0.99%) led the strong rally on better-than-expected Chinese retail and industrial data.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed at midday with six of 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (+0.20%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher with divergence.  The DIA is the laggard, implying a +0.06% open, the SPY implies a +0.61% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.05% open a this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.304% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.35% to $81.32 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ERJ and SAIC.  Then, after the close, YY and STNE report.    

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Feb. Building Permits, Feb. Housing Starts, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, Fed Chair Press Conf., Q1 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q1 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q1 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Q1 Longer Term Interest Rate Projection are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed. Mfg. Employment, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb. Existing Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday the only scheduled news is Fed member Bostic speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from CAL, CNM, TME, and XPEV.  Then Wednesday, BNTX, GIS, HTHT, JKS, OLLI, PDD, SIG, CHWY, FIVE, GES, KBH, MU, SCS, and WOR report.  On Thursday, we hear from ASO, ACN, BZUN, CMC, DRI, DBI, FDS, LU, TITN, WGO, AIR, FDX, LULU, NKE, and WS.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the National Assn. of Realtors agreed to settle antitrust litigation accusing brokerages of inflating sales commissions.  NAR agreed to pay a $418 million settlement as well as eliminate decades long rules that required a 6% sales commission.  This is likely to reduce home prices and allows buyers and sellers to negotiate commissions with their agents.  (The settlement still must be approved by a judge.)  Elsewhere, Japanese media Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan is set to end negative rates this week.

In late-breaking news, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is in active negotiations to license GOOGL’s Gemini AI tools for use in future iPhones.  GOOGL shares were up 5.14% on the news

So far this morning, ERJ reported beats on bot h the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, SAIC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to run this morning on the strong economic data out of China and more fuel for the AI fire. All three of the major index ETFs are up, with QQQ leading the way on a strong gap higher in the premarket. The QQQ and SPY are also printing large white-body Marubozu candles in the early session. However, while the SPY has crossed back above its T-line (8ema) in the premarket, the other two remains below that level based off the damage done the last two days of last week. It is worth noting that the QQQ T-line is flat while the SPY T-line is turning up and the QQQ 8ema is flat this morning. So, the short-term trends remain mixed. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend remains bullish in the SPY while the DIA chops sideways and the QQQ has just rolled over bearish. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. This means both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can gather the momentum. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, nine of the 10 are green this morning with only MSFT (the one left out of the AI news this morning) modestly in the red. This tends to point toward a green market, since it is hard to fight the sheer dollar flows from those 10 tickers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service