On Friday, more good economic data (or perhaps just a bounce off the ugly Thursday candle) led to a gap higher.  The SPY gapped up 0.73%, the DIA gapped up 0.46%, and QQQ gapped up 1.17%.  All three major index ETFs then slowly followed through to the upside until lunchtime.  There was a brief selloff from 12:30 – 1:45 pm and then a recovery that lasted until 3:15 pm.  The SPY, DIA, and QQQ then drifted sideways with a very slight bearish lean the last 45 minutes of the day.  This action gave us a gap-up, Bullish Harami Spinning Top in the SPY, a gap-up, long-legged Doji Harami in the DIA, and a gap-up white-bodied candle in the QQQ.  This move came on above-average volume in the QQQ and slightly below-average volume in both the SPY and DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.09%) way out front (by half of a percent) leading the way high while Utilities (-0.14%) lagged and was the only red sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.98%, DIA gained 0.47%, and QQQ gained 1.82%.  The VXX dropped 3.78% for the day to 22.90 and T2122 popped up but remained just outside the overbought territory at 79.05.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.957% while Oil (WTI) gained another two-thirds of a percent to close at $80.61 per barrel.  So, Friday saw another strong move by the Bulls at the open, a little follow-through, and then afternoon indecisiveness that amounted to a giveback of the morning follow-through. 

The major economic news reported Friday started with the June PCE Price Index which came in better than expected at +3.0% year-on-year (compared to a forecast of +3.1% and a much higher May reading of +3.8%). This included a June Core PCE Price Index that was better than expected at +4.1% (versus a forecast of +4.2% and a May value of +4.6%).  In addition, Q2 Employment Cost quarter-on-quarter came in better than anticipated at +1.0% (compared to a forecast of +1.1% and a Q1 reading of +1.2%).  However, at the same time, June Personal Spending month-on-month was reported as above predicted at +0.5% (versus a forecast of +0.4% and much above the May value of +0.2%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in slightly below anticipated at 71.6 (compared to a 72.6 forecast but well above the June reading of 64.4).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations likewise improved but below expectation at 68.3 (versus the forecast of 69.4 but well above the June value of 61.5).  Finally, the Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations remained as predicted at 3.0% (compared to a 3.0% forecast and a 3.0% June reading).

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In stock news, Reuters reported Friday that heatwaves across North America are going to drive large increases in coal shipments by rail (to fuel power plants).  UNP (largest public railroad) told them “Demand for coal is increasing again. And our customers are asking us to be able to handle more (volumes), which we love, and we’re doing.”   In the same article, CSX (the second largest public railroad) said “hot summers to provide a helpful tailwind.”  Elsewhere, STLA purchases one-third of zero-emission hydrogen vehicle company Symbio.  Meanwhile, after the close Friday, LUV announced it has converted its order for 54 BA “737 MAX 7” jets into “737 MAX 8” jets due to long and ongoing delivery delays.  (BA pushed back the delivery of the first of these jets into 2024 recently.)  Also, after the close, SGML (a lithium miner) told Reuters the company is in talks with parties interested in acquiring it.  (Bloomberg reported in February that TSLA was considering buying that company, but no suitor was mentioned Friday.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday the NHTSA rejected GM’s Thursday dire predictions from GM.  (Thursday, GM had said the new US emissions standards would cost the auto industry $100 billion in 2026 and up to $300 billion from 2027-2031.  That sounds dire, but the auto industry made $3 trillion in 2022 and is projected to make almost $6.1 trillion in 2030.)  Friday, the NHTSA (which oversees CAFÉ standards) said “The GM estimate is pure speculation and inaccurate.”  In addition, “(the higher standards) will save consumers more than $50 billion on fuel over a vehicle’s lifetime … Overall, the benefits of the rule would exceed costs by more than $18 billion,” the official added.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Justice asked a judge to dismiss a 2020 case against EADSY after a probationary period for the European aircraft maker expired.  (EADSY had paid $582 million in US penalties in connection with the case earlier.)  At the same time, the FDA approved a second opioid overdose drug for sale over the counter.  The new drug (RiVive) will be manufactured by CTLT.  Meanwhile, F recalled 870,000 2021-2023 F-150 trucks over the risk of unexpected parking brake activation.  After the close, a US judge shot down the second attempt by JNJ to resolve tens of thousands of lawsuits over its talc products.  The move puts the company’s $8.9 billion settlement offer (which would stop new lawsuits) in doubt.  The judge said the lawsuits simply do not put JNJ subsidiary LTL in financial peril and therefore the bankruptcy is clearly a legal maneuver (Texas two-step) to avoid the consequences of JNJ operations.  Finally, Politico reported that the US Dept. of Justice is investigating and may file an antitrust suit against LYV by the end of the year.  (LYV fell 5% in post-market trading on that news.)

So far this morning, AER, CNA, L, and SOFI have reported beats on both the revenue and earning lines.  Meanwhile, ARLP missed on revenue While beating on earnings. (HCM and ON report closer to the opening bell.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Japan (+1.26%), South Korea (+0.93%), and New Zealand (+0.92%) led the region higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean to the green side but are a little more mixed at midday.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.14%), and FTSE (+0.01%) lead the region on volume while Russia (+1.68%) is the movement leader and five smaller exchanges are modestly red in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a very modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 3.967% and Oil (WTI) is up just less than one percent to $81.33 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Monday is limited to July Chicago PMI (9:45 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AER, ARLP, CAN, HCM, ON, and SOFI.  Then, after the close, AAN, AMKR, ANET, AVB, CAR, BHE, BMRN, BCC, CRC, CNO, CWK, CVI, FANG, HOLX, HUN, LEG, RSG, RYI, SANM, SBAC, SON, THC, TFII, RIG, WELL, WDC, WWD, and YUMC report.    

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get July S&P US Mfg. PMI, July ISM Mfg. PMI, July ISM Mfg. Prices, and JOLTs Job Openings, and API Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Composite PMI, July S&P US Services PMI, June Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday MO, AME, ARES, BLMN, BP, CAT, CEQP, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, ESAB, IT, GPN, GPK, HWM, HSBC, IDXX, ITW, INCY, NSP, IGT, IQV, JBLU, KMT, LEA, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MAR, MLCO, MRK, TAP, MPLX, NCLH, OSK, PFE, PEG, ROK, SIRI, SWK, SPWR, SGRY, SYY, TM, TRN, UBER, WSO, WEC, ZBRA, ZBH, AMD, AFL, ALIT, ALL, AIG, AIZ, AXTA, AXS, BXP, BFAM, CZR, CWH, CHK, COLM, DVN, EA, EHC, EXAS, FLS, ULCC, GNW, GTE, JBT, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MATX, MOS, NUS, PINS, PXD, PRU, KWR, SCI, SEDG, SFM, SBUX, STE, SU, TEX, TX, UNM, VRTX, and VFC report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, ATI, ALGT, ABC, BLCO, BWA, BLDR, BG, CG, CDW, SID, CVS, DD, DVRN, EMR, EXC, RACE, FIS, FDP, FTDR, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HUM, IBP, JCI, KHC, LPX, DNOW, PSN, PSX, QUAD, RCM, RXO, SMG, SGEN, SPR, SUN, TEVA, TRI, TT, VRSK, VRT, WAT, XYL, YUM, ALB, ATUS, DOX, AEE, AFG, ANSS, APA, ATO, BKH, CHRW, CPE, CENT, CF, CAKE, CHRD, CIVI, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CYH, CODI, CCRN, CW, DASH, ET, ETSY, FMC, GT, GXO, HLF, HI, HUBS, NGVT, KGC, LNC, MRO, MKL, VAC, MMS, MCK, MELI, MET, MGM, MKSI, MOD, NFG, NCR, NTR, OXY, PTVE, PK, PYPL, CNXN, PR, PSA, QRVO, QCOM, O, HOOD, SHOP, SPG, SBGI, RUN, TRIP, UFPI, UGI, U, WCN, WTS, WMB, WSC, ZG, and  Z.  On Thursday, GOLF, WMS, APD, BUD, APG, APO, APTV, ARW, BALY, BHC, BCE, BDX, BV, BIP, BRKR, CNQ, FUN, CQP, LNG, CI, CLVT, COMM, COP, CEG, CMI, DQ, DLX, DNB, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, EXPE, FCNCA, FOCS, HAS, DINO, HGV, HII, H, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, K, MMP, MDU, MIDD, MUR, NJR, ONEW, PZZA, PH, PBF, PNW, PBI, PRVA, PWR, REGN, SABR, SBH, SNDR, SRE, FOUR, SO, SAVE, STWD, TRGP, TGNA, TFX, TPX, TKR, BLD, TRMB, VC, VMC, WBD, W, WCC, WLK, WRK, AES, AGL, AL, ATSG, ABNB, LNT, AMZN, COLD, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BGS, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, ED, CTVA, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, EXPI, FND, FTNT, GEN, GILD, GDDY, ICFI, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, PBA, PBR, POST, RMD, RBA, RKT, RYAN, SWN, SYK, TPC, VTR, and WERN report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO report.

In miscellaneous news, TUP was up more than 242% last week as “meme stock” fever seems to have returned.  (Early in July, TUP was warned it may be delisted for a low market cap, $50 million, and stock price, $1.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that for the first time since 2000, the amount of office space in the US is declining.  This is due to the pandemic exposing a massive amount of unneeded office space (i.e. remote work works) and as a result, there is a lack of new office construction while nearly 15 million square feet of office space has been removed from the market.  (Some of this space was converted to other uses and some was torn down to be replaced by other projects.)  Finally, as in the US, overnight Eurozone inflation was reported down in July even as economic activity is picking up.  EU headline inflation fell to 5.3% according to preliminary data (down from 5.5% in June).  At the same time, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3%, which was higher than the forecasted +0.2%.  While Euro inflation remains far above the 2% target, progress is being made without the crash landing many had predicted over and over.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are working on another modest attempt at a push within the recent consolidation. All three index ETFs are giving us white-body candles that are making modest gains on Friday’s close. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-lines (8ema). As far as extension goes, none of them are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in the mid-range just outside the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Remember that this is a heavy earnings week (Q2 earnings have been modestly good so far) and that we get July Payrolls data at the end of the week. In addition, we are looking to close out a strong July as all three major index ETFs start the 31st up more than 3% for the month.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us a major intraday reversal Thursday after gapping higher on the news that the US economy is strong (opening up 0.76% on the SPY, up 0.18% in the DIA, and up 1.44% in the QQQ).  We even saw modest follow-through to the upside in all three major index ETFs for about 15 minutes.  At that point, the Bears stepped in to drive the QQQ and SPY down (with a modest midday attempt to rally) followed by the DIA.  All three kept selling the rest of the day with the exception of a modest bounce the last 10 minutes.  This action gave us large, gap-up, Bearish Engulfing candles in the QQQ, SPY, and DIA.  Both the QQQ and SPY also crossed back below their T-line (8ema), while the DIA tested and stayed above its own.  This move came on heavy volume in the DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and slightly below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.89%) way out front (by three-quarters of a percent) leading the way lower while Communications Services (-0.17%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.66%, DIA lost 0.70%, and QQQ lost 0.24%.  The VXX spiked up almost 5% for the day to 23.80 and T2122 dropped back to the center of the mid-range at 49.75.  10-year bond yields spiked higher to 4.004% while Oil (WTI) gained another 1.4% to close at $79.88 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw the Bulls make a strong move higher only to be met with a wall of selling.  This could be buyer exhaustion since the indices (especially the DIA) have been on a bullish tear lately.  However, it is also possible we were just looking at the contrarian nature of the market.  Great economic news is met by selling after scary data has been met with buying for some time.  In either case, no real technical damage was done, but it did give us a Bearish signal to worry about. 

The major economic news reported Thursday was something of a Fed dream.  Signs of a strong economy, slowing inflation, and a healthy job market…all in the midst of pretty good earnings.  Specifically, June Durable Goods Orders came in far higher than was expected at +4.7% (compared to a forecast of +1.0% and a May reading of +2.0%). At the same time, Preliminary Q2 GDP was also much stronger than predicted at +2.4% (versus a +1.8% forecast and a Q1 value of +2.0%).  In addition, Preliminary Q2 Price Index came in significantly lower than anticipated at +2.2% (compared to a forecast of +3.0% and the Q1 reading of +4.1%).  Elsewhere, the Preliminary Jun Goods Trade Balance saw a better-than-expected deficit of -$87.84 billion (versus the forecast of -$91.80 billion and the May value of -$91.13 billion).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were also better than expected at 221k (compared to a 235k forecast and last week’s reading of 228k).  Later in the morning, June Pending Home Sales also came in above expectations at +0.3% (versus the forecast of -0.5% and the May value of -2.5%).   

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In stock news, Reuters reported its investigation had found that TSLA has suppressed thousands of complaints about battery range by manipulating dashboard displays and canceling range-related service appointments.  Apparently, call center managers told service reps that they saved the company $1,000 every time they canceled a range-related service call.  They also found TSLA cars had an average range 26% lower than what was advertised.  Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported that NFLX reworked its partnership with MSFT related to the ad-supported tier of NFLX service.  The new deal lowers the MSFT guarantee of sales revenue and, at the same time, NFLX cut the cost of ads on that ad-supported tier.  (WSJ reported the ad price cuts went from $45-$55 per 1,000 viewers to $39-$45 per 1,000 viewers.)  Meanwhile, FSLR announced plans to build a fifth US factory to meet booming demand. The plant is expected to cost $1.1 billion and with production at the factory beginning in 2026.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the EU announced that MSFT is the target of a new antitrust investigation.  The new investigation is eerily similar to MSFT’s decades-old antitrust troubles over bundling Internet Explorer with Windows.  The new investigation implies that MSFT is leveraging its near-monopoly position in with Office to capture the collaboration market by bundling MSFT Teams with Office.  On this side of the pond, LHX announced Thursday that it received FTC approval for its $4.7 billion purchase of AJRD.  (The deal was opposed by LHX competitors LMT, RTN, and BA.)  Elsewhere, PPC, TSN, and JBSAY warned that a Chinese ban on the import of US poultry (over bird flu spread concerns) has cost them $900 million so far.  The companies said it has been months since their last reported infections but the bans stay in place following the worst-ever outbreak of the avian flu virus.  At the same time, the US EPA sent letters to T and VZ requiring both of the companies to provide information related to the ongoing risks of lead-clad buried telecom cables and those companies’ internal sampling data and results.  The agency also said it will begin independent sampling in PA and NJ.  Meanwhile, the Supreme Court lifted stays that had been imposed by lower courts, clearing the way for the Mountain Valley Natural Gas Pipeline to be completed (through the Jefferson National Forest).  The pipeline is owned by ETRN, NEE, ED, and RGCO.

After the close, ACHC, ALSN, AJG, TBBK, BZH, SAM, BYD, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, ENSG, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MHK, MDLZ, OVV, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, and TXRH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, HIG, HUBG, MTD, MTX, OLN, TMUS, X, VALE, and WY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AB, PFG, and SSNC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shanghai (+1.84%), Shenzhen (+1.62%), Hong Kong (+1.41%), Thailand (+1.23%), and Singapore (+1.01%) led the strong gainers.  Meanwhile, Australia (-0.70%) and Japan (-0.40%) were the only appreciable losers on the session.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly modestly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.24%), DAX (-0.05%), and FTSE (+0.05%) lead the way in early afternoon trading.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.84% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have backed down to 3.963%, and Oil (WTI) is off three-tenths of a percent to $79.85 per barrel in early trading.

There major economics news scheduled for Friday includes June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), as well as Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 am).   The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.     

So far this morning, PG, AZN, CL, CNC, NWG, KMTUY, TROW, CHD, BAH, NWL, DAN, CVZ, and TYIDY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line.  Meanwhile, SNY, NVT, ARKAY, SEKEY, CRI, GTLS, and CC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, XOM, AON, HTHIY, SCBFF, POR, VRTS, DNZOY, and SHG all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CHTR, KDDIY, BASFY, FANUY, AVTR, and ARCB missed on bot the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CNC raised its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, the Fed, FDIC, and Office of the Comptroller announced a wave of new bank regulations Thursday (although previously teased).  The changes call for banks with over $100 billion in assets to set aside 16% more capital aside in reserves to offset risk.  Pretty much all banks oppose this (or any) regulation, saying the moves would cost so much it would force them to cut services, raise banking fees, or both.  Fed Chair Powell gave tepid support, saying he supported putting the new regulations out for public comment before implementation.  The new regulations would bring the US finally into regulatory compliance with the 2017 Basel Regulatory Deal.  If implemented, the worst hit would be taken by “smaller big banks” like CFG, HBAN, RF, and FITB.  Elsewhere, Thursday’s market reversal seemed to step from a report out of Japan.  The Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan would maintain its cap for interest on a 10-year Japanese Government Bond at 0.5% today, but would also discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise.  The US Dollar immediately fell against the Yen and US stock markets responded with the sharpest decline of the day starting a few minutes later, just after 1 pm.  However, in what was a seismic shift, the BOJ loosened its grip on what has been decades of monetary stimulus by being willing to let the 10-yr. Japanese Bond rate rise “up to” 1.0% (up from 0.5%).  However, they did leave the cap “around 0.50%” and the “target” at 0%. (Don’t ask me how you can have a 0% target, 0.5% cap, but also be willing to let rates go up to 1.0%. I must have missed that day in Japanese logic class.) The overall point is that these language changes indicate the BOJ is gearing up for tweaking targets in the not-too-distant future to become more hawkish (again, for the first time in years).

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are looking to make another run, at least in the premarket. All three of the major index ETFs are trading back about their T-line (8ema) this morning with all three also giving us small white-bodied candles so far in the pre-session. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the dead-center of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of room to run in either direction…if either side can muster the momentum. With all that said, keep in mind that despite yesterday’s candle, the trend is bullish. Finally, remember that it’s Friday…Pay Day. So, take some profits where you can, lighten up, move stops, and/or hedge your account for the weekend news cycles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, markets started higher with SPY gapping 0.23% higher, DIA gapping up 0.17%, and QQQ opening 0.26% higher.  At that point, the two large-cap index ETFs ground sideways for 30 minutes.  For its part, QQQ sold off hard during that half hour, recrossing the opening gap to the lows of the day at 10 am.  Then SPY and DIA rallied until noon, before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  At the same time, QQQ road the rollercoaster back and forth across the opening gap 10 times over the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in the SPY (white-bodied Spinning Top) and QQQ (black-bodied Doji) and a white-bodied candle in the DIA.  QQQ failed a retest of its T-line (8ema) while the two large-cap index ETFs remained above their own T-lines. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.63%) way out front leading the way higher while Healthcare (-0.80%) was by far the lagging sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.45%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.16%.  The VXX fell 1.69% to 23.30 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory to 89.15.  10-year bond yields climbed to 3.874% while Oil (WTI) jumped up 2.36% to close at $78.89 per barrel.  This happened on well below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ and just a bit below-average volume in the DIA.  So, Monday was essentially a gap-up drift day where the market was waiting on more earnings and the Fed decision before putting a lot of new money to work. 

The major economic news reported Monday includes the Preliminary July S&P US Manufacturing PMI, which came in above expectations at 49.0 (compared to a forecast of 46.4 and a June reading of 46.3).  At the same time, the Preliminary July S&P Global Composite PMI came in below the predicted level at 52.0 (versus a forecast of 53.1 and a June value of 53.2).  Finally, the Preliminary July S&P Services PMI also came in low at 52.4 (compared to a 54.0 forecast and a June reading of 54.4).  

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In stock news, TM announced Monday that it has terminated 1,000 workers (out of 19,000) at its joint venture with state-owned Guangzhou Automotive Group in China.  This move was just the latest in a string of similar announcements from automakers that signal pressure from the auto price wars in China.  Elsewhere, the AAL pilot’s union has indefinitely postponed the ratification vote on the tentative contract deal that was revised over the weekend (following the better-than-original deal to which UAL pilots had agreed).  Meanwhile, BAYRY (Bayer) cut its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year.  The move comes as the company also announced a $2.8 billion write-down of its glyphosate-related assets citing weak global demand for glyphosate-based weed killers.  At the same time, TSLA announced it would begin offering 7-year (84-month) loan terms on the purchase of new cars in an effort to reduce monthly payments for potential customers.  Later, FDX pilots rejected a tentative contract deal with the company, which had included a 30% pay increase over the new contract.  The contract was rejected by 57% of the voters.  No strike is imminent and negotiations will resume soon, likely under the supervision of the National Mediation Board.  After the close, PFE announced that the supply of 30 drugs may be disrupted following an NC tornado last week (which accounted for 25% of the company production of the drugs in question).  For now, the company has placed order limits on hospitals for the 30+ drugs (64 different formulations of the 30 drugs).

In stock legal and regulatory news, the FDIC called on banks (without naming any bank in particular) to fix their incorrect financial statements.  Specifically, FDIC says banks have been misstating (reducing) the uninsured deposits on its books.  (Banks are doing this to reduce the amount of “special assessment” the FDIC said it will charge to recoup losses from the three bank collapses earlier this year.)  At the same time, AMC filed a revised “stock conversion plan” with a Delaware court, hoping to address the court’s concerns and allow it to issue millions of new shares of common stock.  Later, the Fed fined UBS $268.5 million for misconduct by CS (which UBS bought out) related to the handling of defunct Archegos Capital.  Elsewhere, a TX jury ruled GOOGL must pay $338.7 million for violating the patents of Touchstream Technologies related to GOOGL’s Chromecast.  After the close, the EU announced that ADBE now faces a full-scale antitrust investigation related to its $20 bid to buy designer platform Figma.  This announcement comes after the completion of a preliminary EU investigation.  Also after hours, AAPL was hit with a $1 billion class action lawsuit in the UK over its App Store fees.  (AAPL gets roughly $20 billion per quarter from App Store fee revenue.)  Finally, after hours, a federal labor board judge ruled that SBUX violated US labor law by firing a NY store supervisor who had organized workers to form a union

After the close, ARE, BRO, CDNS, CLF, FFIV, NXPI, RRC, and SSD all reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CHX, CCK, PKG, and WHR reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CADE and LBTYA both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that CDNS raised its forward guidance while CHX and PKG both lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only New Zealand (-0.70%) and Japan (-0.06%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+4.10%), Shenzhen (+2.55%), Shanghai (+2.13%), and Taiwan (+0.97%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday.  Only, Denmark (-0.42%) and Portugal (-0.07%) are in the red while the CAC (+0.16%), DAX (+0.12%), and FTSE (+0.12%) lead the region higher on volume but actually significantly lag all the smaller exchanges on move size in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are climbing again to 3.904% and Oil (WTI) is up two-tenths of a percent to $78.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10 am) and the API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include MMM, ALK, ACI, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, AVY, BIIB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FELE, GEHC, GE, GM, HRI, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, LW, LTH, MCO, MSCI, NEE, NUE, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, SPOT, TRU, VZ, and XRX.  Then, after the close, GOOGL, ASH, CALM, CNI, CB, CSGP, CR, WIRE, ENVA, EQT, HA, KALU, MTDR, MSFT, NBR, NEX, RNR, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, UHS, V, WD, and WM report.      

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Building Permits, June New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are delivered.  On Thursday, we get June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 GSP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary June Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, we hear from AMG, ALKS, ALLE, APH, T, ADP, BA, BOKF, GIB, CHKP, CME, KO, CSTM, CPG, EQNR, EEFT, EVR, FTV, GD, GPI, HES, HLT, LAD, MHO, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, OC, PAG, BPOP, PRG, DGX, RCI, RES, RPM, R, SLGN, STLA, SCL, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNP, UMC, WNC, AEM, ALGN, AWK, AMP, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AGR, CSL, CLS, CCS, CMG, CHDN, CMPR, FIX, EBAY, EW, ESI, FLEX, GFL, GL, GGG, HP, ICLR, IEX, INVH, LHX, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, META, MEOH, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NGD, NOV, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PTC, RJF, ROL, STX, SEIC, STC, TER, TNET, TYL, URI, VMI, VICI, WFG, and WU.  On Thursday, AOS, ABBV, AGCO, AEP, AMT, MT, ARCH, AMBP, AVNT, BAX, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CVE, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CROX, CFR, DTE, EXP, EME, FAF, FCFS, FSV, FMX, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HCA, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MLM, MAS, MA, MCD, NYCB, NSC, NOC, ORI, OPCH, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PNR, PCG, RS, RCL, SPGI, SHEL, SAH, LUV, SRCL, STM, FTI, TECK, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, VLO, VLY, GWW, WAB, WST, WEX, WTW, XEL, ACHC, AB, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BZH, SAM, BYD, CP, CC, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MTD, MTX, MHK, MDLZ, OLN, OVV, PFG, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TMUS, TXRH, X, VALE, and WY report. Finally, on Friday, we hear from AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.

So far this morning, MMM, ALK, ABG, ADM, BIIB, DHR, DOW, GE, GEHC, GM, KMB, LOGI, MCO, MSCI, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, TRU, and VZ all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, XRX missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BKU, GLW, IVZ, and LTH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AVY, DOV, HRI, and SPOT missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GLW and ST lowered their forward guidance while GE and GM both raised their own guidance.

In miscellaneous news, China in general, and Hong Kong, in particular, got a major shot in the arm from newly-released Chinese government support aimed at helping the country’s real estate sector, boosting consumer spending, and solving local government debt.  This came after Beijing announced its Q2 GDP growth was 6.3% year-on-year (an entire percent below the 7.3% expected growth).  However, the new measures were short on specifics leading to some worry this will end up being just more cheerleading, rather than actual substantial action.  Elsewhere, UPS and the Teamster Union return to the bargaining table today with one week left until the current contract expires (and the union strikes).  The union reports that all work condition-related issues have been resolved and the only remaining question is pay, where the sides reportedly remain significantly far apart.

With that background, it looks like markets are again working on more small, inside candles on the green side of break-even in the premarket. The QQQ is again retesting its T-line from below. Meanwhile, the SPY and DIA are seeming to continue pushing to break out of their tight consolidation in an uptrend. Those two large-cap index ETFs remain above their T-lines (8ema). As far as extension goes, all of the major index ETFs are near their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains in the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. With all that said, keep in mind that the DIA has been on a Bullish tear for over two weeks now, even as it had been the laggard all year. My point is that the mega-cap index is due for some rest. However, also bear in mind that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean. Finally, with this being a Fed week and heavy with major earnings, do not be surprised if we see both drifting and volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The market couldn’t make up its mind on Friday.  The session started with a 0.40% gap higher in the SPY, a 0.17% gap up in the DIA, and a 0.66% gap higher in the QQQ.  At that point, the SPY began an all-day rollercoaster ride going back and forth between the open and the Thursday close.  Meanwhile, DIA did essentially the same thing, just meandering above the open and below the prior close in the process.  For its part, QQQ immediately sold off to recross its opening gap meandered around that prior close level until 3 pm, and then sold off again to go out on the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied near Marubozu, inside day candle in the SPY.  At the same time, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top inside day candle, and QQQ just gave us a black-bodied candle with small wicks on both ends.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.12%) out front leading the way higher while Industrials (-0.39%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was flat +0.00%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.  The VXX fell 1.21% to 23.70 and T2122 fell again but remains in the overbought territory at 83.71.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 3.837% while Oil (WTI) was up 1.56% to close at $76.83 per barrel.  So, Friday was basically a drift day where traders were not taking too many new positions in front of the weekend and the Fed decisions on Wednesday.  The two large-cap index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and QQQ failed a retest to stay below its own T-line for the second day in a row.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three of the market index ETFs.

There was no major economic news on Friday and with the FOMC meeting this week, all the Fed members were in their “Quiet Period.”  

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In stock news, ISRG said Friday that demand for robot-assisted bariatric surgery (which often use the company’s products) has fallen since effective obesity drugs have hit the market.  (NVO already has an obesity drug approved in the US while LLY expects their own drug to be approved in the next few months.  Elsewhere, AMZN announced Friday that it is building a $120 million facility at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida for the processing of the company’s Kuiper internet satellites.  After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that SPOT plans to raise the price of its ad-free premium plan in the US.  Also after the close, AAL announced it has raised its offer to pilots by $1 billion, matching the deal UAL agreed with its own pilots.  AAL pilots are set to begin voting on the now-revised deal today. Meanwhile, late Friday it was reported that DIS has held preliminary talks with three major sports leagues (NFL, NBA, and MLB) as part of its effort to create a strategic partnership while selling off part of ESPN.  (DIS owns 80% of ESPN with the other 20% owned by the private firm Hearst Communications.) On Sunday, YELL announced it has averted a strike by 22,000 Teamster truckers by backing down and agreeing to pay the $50 million it had already owed for worker benefits and pension deposits.

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday, Republican members of the US House of Representatives announced two committees have begun an investigation into the partnership between F and Chinese battery maker CATL.  Elsewhere, STLA lost its bid to block an Indian knock-off of its Jeep from Mahindra for selling in the US.  A judge in the Eastern District of MI ruled the nearly jeep-identical 2018 and 2019 models of the Roxor vehicle are no longer for sale and the post-2020 versions are unique enough to be sold in the US.  Later, the US 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals has granted a request from TSLA that all 16 judges reconsider an earlier decision made by three of them. The three originally ruled that CEO Elon Musk had violated federal labor law by tweeting that employees who joined a union would lose their stock options.  Meanwhile, BAH agreed to pay $377.4 million to settle its violation of US law when it billed the US government for international (non-US) and unrelated expenses.  After the close, a DE judge blocked a proposed settlement that would have allowed AMC to issue more shares, citing that the settlement would impact preferred shareholders who were not party to the settlement.

So far this morning, PHG and RYAAY reported beat to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Japan (+1.23%), Malaysia (+0.79%), and South Korea (+0.72%) paced the gainers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.13%), Shenzhen (-0.58%), and India (-0.37%) led the slightly more plentiful losers on the day.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape on modest moves at midday.  The CAC (-0.45%), DAX (+0.04%), and FTSE (-0.17%) lead on volume and are typical of early afternoon trading.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.31% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.794% and Oil (WTI) is up half of a percent to $77.49 per barrel in early trading.

There major economics news scheduled for Monday are limited to Preliminary Manufacturing PMI and Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Preliminary Services PMI (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell are limited to DPZ, PHG, and RYAAY.  Then, after the close, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CHX, CLF, CCK, FFIV, LBTYA, LOGI, NXPI, PKG, RRC, SSD, and WHR report.     

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and the API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, June New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are delivered.  On Thursday, we get June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 GSP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary June Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, MMM, ALK, ACI, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, AVY, BIIB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FELE, GEHC, GE, GM, HRI, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, LW, LTH, MCO, MSCI, NEE, NUE, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, SPOT, TRU, VZ, XRX, GOOGL, ASH, CALM, CNI, CB, CSGP, CR, WIRE, ENVA, EQT, HA, KALU, MTDR, MSFT, NBR, NEX, RNR, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, UHS, V, WD, and WM.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AMG, ALKS, ALLE, APH, T, ADP, BA, BOKF, GIB, CHKP, CME, KO, CSTM, CPG, EQNR, EEFT, EVR, FTV, GD, GPI, HES, HLT, LAD, MHO, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, OC, PAG, BPOP, PRG, DGX, RCI, RES, RPM, R, SLGN, STLA, SCL, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNP, UMC, WNC, AEM, ALGN, AWK, AMP, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AGR, CSL, CLS, CCS, CMG, CHDN, CMPR, FIX, EBAY, EW, ESI, FLEX, GFL, GL, GGG, HP, ICLR, IEX, INVH, LHX, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, META, MEOH, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NGD, NOV, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PTC, RJF, ROL, STX, SEIC, STC, TER, TNET, TYL, URI, VMI, VICI, WFG, and WU.  On Thursday, AOS, ABBV, AGCO, AEP, AMT, MT, ARCH, AMBP, AVNT, BAX, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CVE, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CROX, CFR, DTE, EXP, EME, FAF, FCFS, FSV, FMX, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HCA, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MLM, MAS, MA, MCD, NYCB, NSC, NOC, ORI, OPCH, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PNR, PCG, RS, RCL, SPGI, SHEL, SAH, LUV, SRCL, STM, FTI, TECK, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, VLO, VLY, GWW, WAB, WST, WEX, WTW, XEL, ACHC, AB, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BZH, SAM, BYD, CP, CC, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MTD, MTX, MHK, MDLZ, OLN, OVV, PFG, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TMUS, TXRH, X, VALE, and WY report. Finally, on Friday, we hear from AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Friday that investors put $3.6 billion in fresh money into hedge funds during Q2.  This brought the industry’s net inflow to $12.64 billion for the year after investors took out $55.4 billion in 2022.  Equity funds led the Q2 inflow list with a $2.8 billion in net increase in money invested.  Elsewhere, over the weekend more than 80 million Americans had to deal with temperatures in excess of 105 degrees.  Meanwhile, Florida Gov. DeSantis made a move in his “culture war” by ordering an investigation into BUD.  DeSantis said he will have his people try to prove that a BUD marketing decision backfired and this failure amounted to a management breach of an obligation to shareholders (some of which who live in Florida).  I guess the Governor would prefer all public company decisions be put to a shareholder vote before execution…at least the decisions with which he disagrees.  He also replied to a reporter’s question by saying “they” were looking into a suit against DIS for the same reason (but no rationale was announced, so that one may just be talking).  Finally, the CME Fedwatch Tool tells us that the probabilities (based on Fed Futures) are a staggering 99.8% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday. (It is fairly rare to see everybody…not just most or even the vast majority, but everybody…betting on the same outcome.)

With that background, it looks like markets are working on more small, inside candles in the premarket. The SPY and DIA are seeming to continue their tight consolidation in an uptrend. Meanwhile, QQQ is looking to consolidate in its modest pullback of an uptrend. The two large-cap index ETFs are above their T-lines (8ema) while QQQ is just below its T-line. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains inside the bottom of the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Bear in mind that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean, especially using an indicator like T2122. Also, with this being a Fed week and heavy with major earnings, do not be surprised if we see both drifting and volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a divergent day with the Bears in control in the SPY and QQQ and the Bulls hanging on in DIA.  This started with a 0.21% gap down in the SPY, a 0.74% gap down in the QQQ, and a 0.23% gap up in the DIA.  Then the Bulls led a 20-minute modest rally.  However, from there SPY and QQQ sold off the rest of the day ending the day just up off the lows.  Meanwhile, the DIA continued to rally until 12:20 pm only to sell off modestly the rest of the day, ending up about 0.27% above the open.  This action gave us an Evening Star in the SPY and QQQ (with the QQQ even closing back below its T-line) as well as a white-bodied, high-wick candle in the DIA.  It is also notable that QQQ saw significantly higher-than-average volume, with above-average volume in the DIA, but well less-than-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.34%) way out front leading the way higher and Technology (-02.48%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.79%) dragging the rest of the market lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.66%, DIA gained 0.50, and QQQ lost 2.31%.  The VXX climbed 0.38% to 23.99 and T2122 fell but remains well into the overbought territory to 88.11.  10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.856% while Oil (WTI) was up 0.37% to close at $75.63 per barrel. So, Thursday looked like a reversal day in the QQQ (which has led markets all year) and to a lesser extent in the SPY.  However, neither of them has broken its uptrend yet.  On the other hand, the DIA (which has lagged all year) held up relatively well, gaining on the day. 

The major economic news on Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims coming in lower than expected at 228k (compared to a forecast of 242k and the prior week’s 237k).  At the same time, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index also came in lower than predicted at -13.5 (versus a forecast of -10.0 but slightly better than the June reading of -13.7).  The Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index came in better than anticipated at -1.0 (compared to a forecast of -4.5 but still worse than June’s -0.4).  Later the June Existing home sales were reported as less than expected at 4.16 million (versus a forecast of 4.20 million and the May value of 4.30 million).  This was a month-on-month 3.3% decline as compared to the May value of +0.2%.  Elsewhere, US mortgage rates fell significantly in the week ending July 20.  30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.78% (the lowest level in four weeks) for the week down from 6.96% the week prior.  Then, after the close, the Fed said that Bank borrowing from the two emergency lending programs increased in the week ending July 19 going from $105 billion to $105.56 billion. 

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In stock news, GOOGL announced that, for the first time ever, YouTube has hiked prices for premium subscribers of multiple YouTube services.  Elsewhere, the CEO of UAL confirmed previous reports that the airline is having trouble getting pilots to take promotions to the captain role.  (50% of UAL’s 978 captain job openings have gone unfilled in the past year.)  The reason has been reported to be that Captain pilots have a much less predictable schedule in addition to a bigger paycheck.  Meanwhile, in its earnings call, TSLA confirmed that it is in preliminary discussions about licensing its “Full Self Driving” software to a major automaker.  Speculation is that the automaker involved would be STLA since F and GM already have their own self-driving programs well underway.  At the same time, AMC announced it has dropped its previous plan to charge tiered ticket prices based on the seat location within the theatre. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, the bill which increases the mandatory retirement age of pilots from 65 to 67 passed the US House in a large-majority bipartisan vote.  Elsewhere, the NHTSA said that TSLA has recalled 15,000 Model S and Model X cars due to a potential front seatbelt issue.  At the same time, an executive from STLA has pleaded guilty to Dept. of Justice charges of conspiracy to breach the Clean Air Act (by cheating on emissions testing).  Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that PZZA cannot force its delivery drivers to arbitrate claims that the company violated federal law by not reimbursing for vehicle expenses (mileage) after it was revealed the lead driver in the class-action suit had never even seen the arbitration agreement the company was trying to invoke to get the case dismissed.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the FTC is poised to pause its internal trial against MSFT over the ATVI acquisition.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation has opened an investigation into DAL after a loaded plane sat on the tarmac without air conditioning for four hours Monday in 111-degree heat in Las Vegas.  (Multiple passengers had to be treated by medics.)

After the close, COF, BANF, ISRG, PPG, and SCHL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ASB and OZK beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CSX and WRB both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, KNX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Hong Kong (+0.78%), Thailand (+0.53%), and Malaysia (+0.49%) leading the gainers while India (-1.17%), Taiwan (-0.78%), and Japan (-0.57%) pacing the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with a lean slightly more to the green side at midday.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (-0.41%), and FTSE (+0.11%) lead on volume and are fairly typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down 3.837% and Oil (WTI) is rallying now up 1.10% to $76.46 per barrel in early trading.

On Friday, there are no major economics news scheduled.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB.  However, after the close, there are no reports scheduled.    

So far this morning, ALV, AN, DNKEY, HBAN, IPG, NHYDY, and ROP all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AXP and SLB missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, RF beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, SEOAY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ROP raised its forward guidance. 

In miscellaneous news, the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Chopra told Reuters that the days of easy approvals for bank mergers are over. He went on to say, “There is no question past adjudications of mergers did not meet the level of analytical rigor that they ought to have.” He also said, “Banks can expect a more rigorous review of applications. The ink on the rubber stamp has dried up and … my hope is to see a shift from the regulators of moving from cheerleader to umpire.”  For what it’s worth, Chopra does also sit on the Board of the FDIC.  Elsewhere, the Fed launched its long-awaited “FedNow” instant settlement service covering 41 banks and 15 service providers.  While touted as a boon for everyday consumers, the move just means fund settlement for electronic payments should happen within seconds rather than hours to days later.

In other news, overnight the White House announced that it has secured “voluntary pledges” from OpenAI, MSFT, and GOOGL related to artificial intelligence.  The group will meet with President Biden at the White House today.  The commitment is that the group will create ways the consumers will be able to identify AI-generated information (like watermarks) as well as standards for how the companies and third parties test AI tools for security before they are released. The overall goal is to ensure AI safeguards without hindering innovation. With that said, like everything else in the world, intentions and platitudes are fine, but the devil is in the details when it comes to controlling a new technology that offers significant advantages to any individual, group, company, or country. Notably absent from the list of attendees are META, AAPL, and any Chinese or European representatives.

With that background, it looks like markets are working on inside candles in the premarket. The QQQ is now retesting its T-line (8ema) from below while the DIA has reversed and is giving us a black candle before the opening bell. With no major news planned for the day and earnings out of the way before the open, today may be more of a drift. The bears have the chart pattern in the market-leading QQQ and SPY. However, the Bulls have been in control all year and are not going to roll over on the back of a single candle. So, at this point, it is still looking like a pullback in an uptrend, with no strong indication a reversal has or is happening. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains well into the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Just remember that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean, especially using an indicator like T2122. Finally, remember that it’s Friday. Pay yourself, hedge, move stops, and do whatever you need to do to get your account ready for the weekend news cycle. (Also, bear in mind there will be a slight weighting rebalance in the QQQ as of Monday. This is likely not a big deal, but it is happening.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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