GM Still Out, AI Order As Fed Still Ahead

Markets opened higher on Friday, gapping up 0.39% in the SPY, opening dead flat in the DIA, and gapping up 0.87% in the QQQ.  At that point, the DIA led the move lower, followed by an indecisive SPY, and finally a QQQ that was bullish the first two hours.  By 11:30 a.m. all three were selling in a jagged fashion the rest of the day. This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA only had lower wicks (based on the last wave being up the final 15 minutes.  However, the QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top Inside Day candle.  All three remain well below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on just above-average volume in the SPY and above-average volume in the QQQ and DIA.

On the day, eight of 10 sectors were red with Basic Material (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.07%) being the only ones to stay green while Healthcare (-1.89%) and Utilities (-1.83%) led the way lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, the DIA lost a whopping 1.11% (led that way by CVX -6.72%), and QQQ gained 0.48%.  VXX gained 3.32% to close at 27.08 and T2122 fell back into the low end of the oversold territory at 6.22.  10-year bond yields ended the day unchanged at 4.845% while Oil (WTI) rose 2.34% to close at $85.16 per barrel on Middle East war fears.  

The major economic news reported Friday included the September PCE Price Index (year-on-year) of +3.4%, which was in line with the forecast and the August reading.  On a month-on-month basis, this was +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but in line with the August reading of +0.4%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in better than expected at 63.8 (versus a forecast of 63.0 but down from the September reading of 68.1).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in lower than predicted at 59.3 (compared to a forecast of 60.7 and the September value of 66.0).  Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectation was very high at 4.2% (compared to a forecast of 3.8% and a September reading of 3.2%).  Further out, the Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectation was in line with predictions at 3.0% (versus a forecast of 3.0% but up from the September value of 2.8%).

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, following Wednesday’s settlement with F, the UAW held nearly non-stop negotiation sessions with STLA and GM on Thursday and Friday.  Both the CEO of GM and the President of the UAW participated in the round on Friday.  As of Friday evening, a deal was said to be close, as both companies agreed to the same 25% pay increase that F agreed to earlier but talks continued.  At the same time, the union at F began returning to work Friday, ending the 6-week strike.  (As a side note, F announced Friday that the strike had cost the company $1.3 billion.) Then on Saturday evening, the UAW announced it had reached a tentative deal to end the strike against STLA.  (Reportedly, UAW President Fain had turned his focus to GM after focusing more on STLA on Friday.)  However, by Saturday evening, GM was still refusing on issues F and STLA agreed.  So, the UAW increased the strike by having 4,000 workers walk off the job at GM’s Spring Hill TN assembly plant (GM’s largest US plant).  Early today, the Canadian Autoworker Union (Unifor) called a strike of more than 8.200 workers against STLA up North.  (Unifor already reached deals with F and then after a 12-hour strike with GM. In last-minute news, STLA also settled with Unifor after about 12 hours of that strike.)  In tangentially related news, back in the US, F said it was postponing a $12 billion investment in EV manufacturing expansions. GM had also delayed the opening of a second EV truck plant and canceled a joint project between itself and HMC aimed at making sub-$30k EVs for the global market.

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In stock news, GM announced it had decided to suspend operations of all its Cruise driverless robotaxis amid safety concerns.  At the same time, UPS announced it is buying the “Happy Returns” unit from PYPL.  UPS said the purchase of Happy Returns and a previously announced deal to buy MNX Global Logistics will total more than $1 billion.  Later, Reuters reported that merger negotiations between WDC and Japan’s Kioxia have stalled.  At the same time, DUK announced it would build an end-to-end “Green Hydrogen” energy plant in FL.  The plant will split water into hydrogen and oxygen using solar power to generate the electricity needed and is expected to be operational in 2024.  Elsewhere, JPM announced that CEO Dimon will be selling 1 million of his 9.6 million shares of JPM in a strategic diversification move.  Later VLKAF (Volkswagen) said it is cutting 2,000 jobs and has pushed back the release of its Porsche Macan EV until 2024.  After the close, BA announced it is assessing a claim made by a cybercrime gang (Lockbit) that the group had “a tremendous amount” of sensitive BA data and would dump the data to the public if the company did not pay a ransom by Nov. 2.  Then on Friday evening, GOOGL announced it is investing $2 billion in Anthropic (a competitor to MSFT-backed OpenAI) to further its presence in the AI market.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, On Friday, GOOGL announced its CEO would testify today in the US antitrust case against the tech giant.  Later, ABBV said it is taking a $2.1 billion charge related to and ahead of its negotiations with Medicare over its leukemia drug.  Elsewhere, NSC announced it has begun installing AI-based safety inspection portals at a dozen locations on its tracks.  The portals will use high-speed cameras and AI software to do safety inspections while trains keep moving.  This comes in response to EPA and FRA pressure following the railroad’s Feb. derailment and mass chemical spill in East Palestine OH.  Later, Reuters reported that the Argentine government had filed a motion with a US District judge asking that the judge stay the enforcement of a $16.1 billion judgment over the nationalization of a then minority state-owned oil company (YPF).  The judgment was due to REPYY, which had a 51% stake in the company.  By mid-afternoon, ANF was sued for ignoring a sex-trafficking ring run by former CEO Mike Jeffries, who allegedly lured young men in using the promise of becoming models for the ANF brand.  After the close Friday, JNJ announced that the Dept. of Justice has sought documents and information related to the drugmaker’s eye surgery products in connection with a DOJ civil (not criminal) investigation. Finally, early today President Biden announced a new executive order aimed at putting some guardrails on AI. The order calls for the Commerce Dept. to create safety and security standards covering AI. The order also aimed at protecting consumer data, watermarking AI-created content, and providing guidance to landlords and federal contractors to avoid unfair discrimination based on AI model training deficiencies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shenzhen (+1.61%) was far and away the leader for the bulls while Japan (-0.95%) paced the four losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are nearly green across the board at midday.  Only Portugal (-0.07%) is in the red as the CAC (+0.71%), DAX (+0.58%), and FTSE (+0.76%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the open.  The DIA implies a +0.58% open, the SPY is implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.77% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are at 4.886% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.37% to $84.37 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open include ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, DQ, HSBC, JKS, MCD, ON, RVTY, SOFI, WDC, and XPO.  Then, after the close, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CACC, CWK, CVI, FMC, PEAK, KMPR, LEG, MATX, MPWR, NEXA, PINS, PSA, QGEN, RYI, SPG, THC, RIG, VFC, and WELL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Q3 Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P US Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and the Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AGCO, ALLE, AME, AMGN, BUD, ARES, BCC, BP, CCJ, CAT, CEIX, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, BEN, GEHC, GVA, GPK, GPRE, HNI, HUBB, INCY, NSP, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, PFE, PEG, ST, SIRI, SFM, STLA, SYY, BLD, UFPI, WEC, XYL, and ZBRA, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, EQH, BXC, CZR, CGAU, CHK, ENLC, EQR, FSLR, HUN, HY, JBSS, LBTYA, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MCY, MTH, OI, OKE, SON, TX, UNM, VOYA, and YUMC.  Then Wednesday, ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, YUM, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.  On Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In interesting real estate news from North of the border, Canadian PM Trudeau has been under pressure about the tight housing market in Canada.  As a result, Trudeau introduced measures to tighten the criteria colleges apply to their international students starting in the fall of 2024.  Colleges that meet the higher criteria will be given priority in the processing of student visas requested by their international students.  In effect, the idea is to reduce the number of international students in Canada, thereby freeing up housing for native Canadians.

In miscellaneous news, Israel expanded its ground invasion of Gaza on Friday and the expansion of that attack continued Saturday and Sunday.  Meanwhile, on an interesting side note, since 1950, October 28 has statistically been the best single day of the year in terms of bullish market gains.  So, of course, October 28 came on a Saturday this year. (For the record, the worst market day of the year is statistically Oct 19…just nine days prior to the best day.)  Elsewhere, tonight (8 p.m. Eastern) Bloomberg reports AAPL will unveil eight M3 CPUs (built on TSM’s 3nm process fab) with eight, 12, or 16 processing cores (both efficiency and performance cores) and 10, 18, or 40 graphics processing cores.  They will also launch a 24-inch iMac using the new M3 chips and a new MacBook Pro.

So far this morning, ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, JKS, L, MCD, SOFI, and XPO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HSBC missed on revenue while beating massively on earnings (+194% quarter-on-quarter).  However, DQ and RVTY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (ON and WDC report at 8 a.m.)  It is worth noting that SOFI raised its forward guidance.  In addition to the HSBC growth, JKS had 59% earnings growth on just 4% revenue growth.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control in the premarkets this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher at the open of the early session with the large-cap indices printing small, white-bodied candles. However, the QQQ gapped higher and the Bulls have continued to run, giving us a large, white-bodied candle with very small wicks this morning. With that said, keep in mind that all three remain well below their T-line (8ema) and also down 9%-10% from the summer highs. Once again, we have no really major economic news today and with the Fed and Q3 Payrolls later in the week, it would not be surprising for markets to drift while they wait on more news. In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are back a bit extended down below their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also in the lower end of its oversold territory. So a pause or relief rally may well be in order. Just remember that the market can remain extended longer than we can stay solvent betting that it has to turn. Finally, the only thing we can say for sure is the Bears maintain control of the trend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

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Middle East Tensions

The bears ran roughshod over Friday’s market as Middle East tensions worried investors with oil prices surging and bond yields holding steady.  This week will be very busy with market-moving job numbers, a FOMC rate decision, and a huge number of earnings events as we slide into November.   The T2122 indicator is in a short-term very oversold condition so watch for a relief rally and a possible short squeeze to get it moving.  However, don’t rule out a retest of lows, and expect challenging price volatility so plan your risk carefully.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher ahead of Japan’s central bank decision.  European markets trade green across the board this morning reliving some of last week’s selling despite Middle Eastern worries.  U.S. futures suggest a substantial gap up hoping for a relief of some of the short-term oversold conditions as we wrap up October and slide into the holiday’s highly anticipated rally.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday include AGNC, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, BCC, CHGG, CHKP, CRK, CWK, DENN, PLOW, FMC, FWRD, HTLF, IRT, KMPR, KFRC, LSCC, LEG, MPWR, ON, OGS, OTTR, PDM, PINS, PCH, PSMT, PCH, PSA, RMBS, SPG, SOFI, THC, RIG, VFC, VRNS, VNO, WELL, WDC, WOLF, XPO, & ZI.

News & Technicals’

Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, is facing a national labor strike in Canada, just days after it reached a tentative deal with the United Auto Workers union in the U.S. The strike, which started on Monday, affects two assembly plants in Ontario that produce some of the company’s popular models, such as the Chrysler 300 sedan and Pacifica minivan and the Dodge Challenger and Charger muscle cars. The workers, who are members of the Unifor union, are demanding better wages, benefits and working conditions. The strike could disrupt the production and supply of Stellantis vehicles in North America and hurt the company’s sales and profits.

The United Auto Workers union and Ford have reached a tentative agreement that includes $8.1 billion in new investments by the automaker and $5,000 bonuses for the workers. The tentative deal, which was approved by the local union leaders on Sunday, will now be presented to the 57,000 UAW-Ford members for regional meetings and voting, the union said on Sunday. The tentative agreement was achieved after the union launched selective strikes against Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, as the three companies failed to meet the union’s demands by the Sept. 14 deadline. The union is seeking higher wages, better benefits, and more job security for its members.

Evergrande, the troubled Chinese property developer, saw its shares plummet to a record low on Monday, as it faced a possible liquidation by a Hong Kong court. The company’s shares dropped more than 20% from last Friday’s close of 23.6 Hong Kong cents to 18.8 Hong Kong cents in early Monday trading, before recovering slightly to 22.2 Hong Kong cents. The company is facing a winding-up order from a group of bondholders who claim that Evergrande has defaulted on its debt obligations. A Hong Kong judge said that the Dec. 4 hearing would be the last one before a decision is made on the order, according to Reuters. Evergrande is the world’s most indebted property developer, with more than $300 billion in liabilities. The company’s financial woes have sparked fears of a contagion effect on the Chinese and global economy.

The stock markets ended Friday with bears overwhelming the bulls as Middle East tensions grew and those pesky bond yields held firm. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, finished the week with more than 2.5% losses and are now more than 10% below their highs on July 31. However, the sell-offs in large tech companies like Google and Facebook (Meta) after they announced their earnings took some shine off the “Magnificent 7”.  As we finish up October about 40% of companies will come out from under their blackout period meaning buybacks could prove an increase in market breadth.  Today is the only light day of economic reports and keep in mind the earnings events will continue to increase through Thursday afternoon when Apple reports earnings.  Jobs numbers will be in focus this week as well as the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Plan for significant volatility.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bears Remained Resilient

Bears Remained Resilient

Though the Dow benefited from MSFT and BA the bears remained resilient attacking the tech sector with the so-called magnificent seven leading the way lower. Bond yields edged higher and unfortunately continue to do so this morning facing a huge day of earnings as well as a busy economic calendar chalked full of market-moving reports.  Indexes remain in a short-term extreme oversold condition that suggests a relief rally could begin at any time but if the data continues to pile on panic selling is possible to break recent market lows.  Plan for signalment price volatility!

Overnight Asian markets closed mostly lower with only the Shanghai index managing a 0.14% gain as Australia shares close at a one-year low. European markets are lower across the board this morning in reaction to earnings and the likelihood the ECB will hold rates steady.  U.S. futures also suggest a bearish open led by the tech sector ahead of a huge day of earnings and economic reports that could move the market substantially.  Buckle up for a potentially wild day of volatility as the investors react.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday include AMZN, AOS, AB, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, BJRI, SAM, BSX, BC, BG, CPT, COF, CSL CARR, CNP, CMS, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, CMCSA, COUR, CFR, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ESS, FAF, FHI, FE, F, FGLI, GWW, HOG, HIG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, HUBG, INTC, IP, JNPR, KVUE, KDP, KIM, LHX, LH, LII, LIN, MAS, MA, MPW, MRK, MBLY, MHK, NRDS, NEM, NOC, NVCR, OLN, OSTK, BTU, PCG, PFG, PTCT, RS, RSG, RCL, STX, SKYW, LUV, STAG, STM, TEX, TXRH, TXT, TSCO, TW, TSCO, TW, TPH, UPS, X, UDR, VLO, VRSN, VMC, WTW, and WY.

News & Technicals’

Mercedes-Benz, the German luxury carmaker, reported lower profit and revenue for the third quarter of 2021, as it faced tough competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market. The company’s Chief Financial Officer, Harald Wilhelm, said that the EV market was a “pretty brutal space,” according to Reuters. He said that some traditional automakers were selling EVs at a loss, despite their higher production costs, to gain market share. This put pressure on Mercedes-Benz’s pricing and margins, as it tried to balance profitability and growth. The company’s shares fell by 2.6% on Thursday, as investors were disappointed by its results.

The U.S. economy may have performed well in the third quarter of 2021, but one strategist warns that the U.S. consumer, a key driver of the economy, is facing a looming crisis. Chris Watling, the chief executive of Longview Economics, a financial advisory firm, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that the U.S. consumer is “walking towards a cliff.” He said that consumer spending, which has been boosted by stimulus checks and pent-up demand, is unsustainable and will soon run out of steam. He also said that the rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages will hurt consumer confidence and purchasing power. He predicted that the U.S. economy will slow down significantly in 2022 and 2023, as consumer spending weakens.

The commercial real estate markets in the U.S. and China are facing challenges in a scenario where interest rates remain high for a long time, according to Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB). The bank said that higher rates could affect the demand and supply of commercial properties, as well as the financing and valuation of these assets. However, the bank also expressed optimism about one key region: Southeast Asia. The bank said that Southeast Asia has attracted strong investment flows, especially in the new economy sectors such as sustainability. The bank cited examples of green buildings, renewable energy projects, and digital infrastructure that have received funding from both domestic and foreign investors. The bank said that Southeast Asia offers attractive opportunities for commercial real estate investors, as the region has a large and growing population, a rising middle class, and a supportive policy environment.

Hints of a selling relief gave way to more selling Wednesday as the bears remained resilient, reacting to the earnings reports and the rising bond yields. The technology sector suffered the most as the so-called magnificent seven lost some of their shine. The Dow did better, thanks to the strong performance of Microsoft and Boeing shares. Interest rates remain the main factor for the financial markets. Ten-year Treasury yields rose again on Wednesday, going back over 4.9% but still below the recent highs after reaching 5% on Monday. Today we have a huge day of earnings with AMZN in focus after the bell.  We also have market-moving economic reports that include Durable Goods, GDP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, as well as more Fed speak and bond auctions to keep traders guessing and volatility high.  Fasten your seat belts folks its likely to be a bummy day as we test recent lows in a very oversold short-term condition.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Struggled With Momentum

Struggled With Momentum

Although the major indexes advanced on Tuesday the bulls struggled with momentum as mixed earnings results added uncertainty.  The big reports for the tech giants only added to the hesitation as MSFT surged higher and GOOGL declined sharply.  Today we have another big day of earnings with AMZN and META  after the bell with a few more economic reports to inspire the bulls or bears.  The mix of data is leaving more questions than answers and so far unable to offset the geopolitical impacts facing the market.  Plan for another day of whippy price action as traders navigate all the data the the path forward clouded in uncertainty.

While we slept Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher after Australia reported higher-than-expected inflation numbers.  European markets trade cautiously with modest gains and losses this morning despite the 7% earnings rally from Deutsche Bank.  U.S. futures suggest a mixed open ahead of a big day of earnings and economic reports with more tech giant reports just around the corner.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday include AEM, AGI, ALGN, AMP, AR, ATR, ADP, AVB, AVY, BKR, BA, BOKF, BA, BOKF, CP, CHE, CHDN, CME, CYH, ED, ESI, EQT, EQIX, ETD, EG, EVR, FLEX, FLS, FTV, GD, GL, GGG, GBX, HESS, HLT, IBM, EIX, IMAX, INVH, KRC, KLAC, LC, LAD, MAT, MOH, MCO, COOP, MSM, MSTR NAVI, NTGR, NSC, ORLY, ODFL, OTIS, OC, PPC, R,  SLM, SEIC, NOW, SUI, NOVA, TMHC, TDY, TER, TMO, TMUS, TNL, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, VKTX, WNC, WFRD, WSBC, WFG, WU, WHR, WH.

News & Technicals’

The recent attack on Israeli civilians by Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, has triggered a wave of violence and fear in the Middle East, a region that is vital for the global economy. Economists are worried that the conflict will spread to other countries and pose a long-term threat to the energy and trade infrastructure that connects the world. Many international powers are trying to calm the situation and prevent further escalation. The Middle East hosts some of the world’s most important shipping routes, such as the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz, which carry oil, gas, and other goods. Any disruption or damage to these routes could have serious consequences for the global markets and consumers.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas is adding to the economic uncertainty and anxiety in the world, according to the IMF chief. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF, said on Wednesday that the worsening violence in the Middle East was another cloud on the horizon of an already gloomy economic outlook. She made these remarks at a panel hosted by CNBC’s Dan Murphy at the Future Investment Initiative Institute conference. Georgieva was not alone in expressing her concern, as other senior business figures at the conference also felt the impact of the conflict on the global economy. The conflict, which started on Oct. 7 when Hamas launched rockets at Israeli civilians, has killed hundreds of people and displaced thousands more. It has also raised fears of a wider regional war and disrupted the supply and demand of oil and other commodities.

The U.S. is likely to increase its pressure on Iran, an OPEC member and a major oil producer, for its support of Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that has been attacking Israel. This is the view of Helima Croft, the head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who spoke to CNBC on Wednesday. Croft said that the Biden administration, which has been trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, might tighten the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports in response to its backing of Hamas. She also said that the expected ground invasion by Israel into Gaza, where Hamas is based, could determine how the West reacts to Iran. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which started on Oct. 7, has raised concerns about the stability of the Middle East and the global oil market.

The equity markets rallied Tuesday but the bulls struggled with momentum worried about the war in the Middle East and the mix of earnings results. Bond yields paused moving higher while the U.S. Dollar strengthened slightly as gold, silver, and crypto strengthened in a flight to safety. The tech titans came in with mixed results as MSFT surged higher while GOOGL sold off sharply adding more uncertainty as to what lies ahead.  Today we have another huge round of earnings that includes META and AMZN after the bell for traders to ponder.  On the economic calendar, we have Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, Petroleum Status, bond auctions, and another Jerome Powell speech after the market closes to keep traders guessing.  Plan for another day of whippy price action filled with uncertainty about what comes next.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings, Permits, and New Home Sales

Markets gapped higher Tuesday at the open (up 0.51% in the SPY, up 0.50% in the DIA, up 0.52% in the QQQ).  At that point, all three market index ETFs drifted higher until 11:00 a.m.  Then the whipsaw began with a selloff until 1 p.m. before running back up until 3:45 p.m. when we saw a mild selloff for the last 15 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three printed some form of a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  However, the QQQ also printed a form of a Morningstar signal on that candle.  Still, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) and SPY crossed back above the 200sma.  This happened on well-below-average volume in the QQQ and SPY and just-below-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+2.03%) and Communications Services (+1.97%) being way out front leading the way higher while Energy (-0.07%) was the only sector in the red.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.75%, the DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 0.97%.  VXX fell 4.54% to close at 24.39 and T2122 climbed but remained in its oversold territory at 12.21.  10-year bond yields fell again to 4.819% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.91% to close at $83.86 per barrel.  So, on Tuesday the market was a whipsaw again.  There was a gap higher at the open, a morning selloff that nearly recrossed the gap, and then an afternoon rally that took us back toward the highs of the day.  With that said, once again there was no change in character the real character of the market and continued indecision among the major index ETFs.

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the Preliminary S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a bit higher than expected at 50.0 (compared to a forecast of 49.5 and a reading 2 weeks ago of 49.8).  At the same time, the Preliminary S&P Global Services PMI came in well above anticipated at 50.9 (versus a forecast of 49.8 and even above the 2-week-old reading of 50.1).  Combined, the Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI was 51.0, which is up from the 50.2 reported two weeks ago.  It is worth noting that on all of these numbers, a value above 50.0 indicates expansion while a value less than 50 indicates contraction.  So, the global economy appears to be ever-so-slightly expanding when it was expected to be contracting.  Later, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a 2.668-million-barrel reduction in inventories (compared to a forecast of a 1.550-million-barrel increase but still only about half of the prior week’s 4.383-million-barrel drawdown).

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, GM removed all forward guidance as part of their Q3 reporting.  At the same time, GLW (who missed) cited the ongoing strike against the Big 3 automakers as part of the reason for poor results and reducing their forward guidance.  (GLW makes windshields and emission control systems for GM, F, and STLA among other automakers.)  ITW also made similar claims related to the strike impacting their future prospects.  Later the UAW announced it has struck a GM plant in Texas that builds the company’s most profitable SUVs.  (This strike doubles the cost of the strike on GM to $400 million/week.)  Later, STLA laid off 535 additional workers after their Ram truck plant was struck earlier this week. 

Click for video

In stock news, CNBC reported Tuesday that AMZN is considering a move to follow WMT into the veterinary telemedicine market.  (WMT signed a deal with veterinary telemedicine provider Pawp and CNBC reports AMZN is considering the same move.) At the same time, LIAN reaped a $350 million windfall (and also voided $127.5 million in future LIAN expenses) after terminating its deal with BMY related to FDA-approved heart medication.  BMY was forced to pay that $350 for exclusive rights to the drug in Asian markets.  (LIAN shot up to close 117% higher on the day.)  Later, Reuters reported STLA has entered a deal with French nuclear fuels firm Orano to recycle EV batteries and scrap materials.  At the same time, NVDA said new US export restrictions on high-tech sales to China were sped up and went into effect Monday.  (The original scheduled was Nov. 16, but the Biden Administration wanted to head off massive last-minute sales by the tech giants.)  AMD and INTC are also impacted by the export ban to China, Iran, and Russia.  In other chip news, Reuters reported Tuesday that QCOM has outlined details of a Windows-based laptop based on a QCOM ARM-based CPU that will be released in 2024 which will include enough processing power for AI applications like summarizing emails, writing text, and generating images.  (It would be a massive leap for a laptop to have the processing power to handle that sort of AI, but they claim it will support models with 13 billion parameters.)   Elsewhere, CADE said it has sold its insurance brokerage business to AJG for $904 million. At the same time, EPOW revealed it’s in negotiations with Dutch LG Energy and the Abu Dhabi Investment Fund regarding a lithium battery material production facility in the Middle Eastern country.  The proposed project would produce 50,000 tons of anode material per year. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, ACB has settled its patent breach suit against CANSF in a confidential settlement.  Later, Reuters reported TEF and VOD drew the short straws as French telecom group Orange chose Romanian firm Digi to buy assets the company was divesting.  This selection was made to avoid EU antitrust concerns that would be raised if TEL or VOD bids were chosen.  At the same time, Reuters reports that evidence (internal safety reports) was presented in court showing that TSLA was aware of an Autopilot malfunction two years prior to a fatal crash.  The suit seeks $400 million plus punitive damages and is the first TSLA Autopilot case to make it to trial.  Elsewhere, 33 states’ Attorneys General filed suit against META and its Instagram unit for misleading the public and knowingly creating features designed to become addictive to children, causing mental health problems.  Shortly afterward, the District of Columbia and eight other states filed a separate but nearly identical suit which brought to total to 41 states and DC.  At the same time, JBLU asked the US Dept. of Transportation to ban Air France’s KLM from NY JFK airport if a Dutch government cap on flights to one of its airports takes place.  (The Dutch plan to reduce flights by 10% from 2019 levels starting in 2024 to reduce noise pollution.  This would effectively ban JBLU from that airport.)   Meanwhile, NWG faces a lawsuit from former CEO Rose after the bank canceled her previously awarded but not yet vested 2.5 million shares of stock worth millions of dollars.  In mid-afternoon, the state of CA DMV ordered GM Cruise driverless cars off state roads, saying they are a safety risk.   After the close, the SEC announced that BLK had agreed to pay $2.5 million for failing to accurately describe investments made in the entertainment industry.  Tuesday afternoon, AAPL announced they are now backing the Biden Administration’s call for a “Right to Repair” law that has been pushed by FTC Chair Khan.  (Of course, Congress determines what laws are passed.  So, publicly supporting a proposal can easily be offset by some lobbying inside the halls of Congress.)

After the close, GOOGL, CB, WIRE, FFIV, GOOG, LRN, MTDR, MSFT, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, UMBF, V, and WFRD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BYD and ENVA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, RRC, TDOC, and WM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, CNI, CHX, CSGP, HA, and TXN all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CHX, TDOC, and TXN lowered their forward guidance.  However, LRN raised its guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  South Korea (-0.85%) and India (-0.83%) paced the losses while Thailand (+0.77%) and Japan (+0.67%) led the more numerous gainers.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday with more bourses in the red than in the green.  The CAC (-0.18%), DAX (-0.09%), and FTSE (+0.06%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  In the US, at 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open leaning to the downside.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.57% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.863% and Oil (WTI) is off another quarter of a percent to $83.53 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Building Permits (8 a.m.), September New Home Sales (10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell at 4:35 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALFVY, APH, ATLKY, ADP, AVY, BA, BOKF, CME, CSTM, EVR, FTV, GD, GBX, GPI, HES, HLT, LTH, LAD, MHO, MCO, MSM, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OMF, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, RDUS, ROP, R, SLGN, TMUS, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, WNC, and WAB.  Then, after the close, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, AMP, NLY, AR, ATR, ASGN, AVB, AGR, BKR, BHE, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CYH, EW, ESI, EQT, EQIX, EG, FLEX, FLS, FBIN, GL, GGG, ICLR, IEX, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, LSTR, MAT, META, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NBR, NXT, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, STC, SUI, TER, TNET, TROX, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get September Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q3 GDP, Preliminary Q3 GDP Price Index, September Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Retail Inventories, Sept. Pending Home Sales, and we hear from Fed member Waller.  Finally, on Friday, Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, AOS, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, AMBP, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, BG, CRS, CARR, CX, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CFR, EXP, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FSV, ULCC, FCN, HOG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KVUE, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LEA, LII, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MAS, MA, MRK, NYCB, NEM, NOC, ORI, OSK, PATK, BTU, PCG, BPOP, RS, RCL, STX, SAH, LUV, STM, FTI, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, UPS, VLO, VLY, VC, VMC, GWW, WST, WEX, WTW, AB, AMZN, AJG, BIO, SAM, COF, CSL, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ERIE, FE, F, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, NOV, OLN, PFG, RSG, RMD, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TEX, TXRH, X, VALE, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABBV, AER, ARLP, AON, ARCB, AN, AVTR, BAH, CBRE, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, EQNR, XOM, FMX, FTS, GNTX, IMO, LECO, LYB, NWL, NVT, PSX, POR, SAIA, SNY, SWK, TROW, and XEL.

In US Congressional news, the circus continued Tuesday.  After four more ballots, the House GOP Caucus selected Rep. Emmer as its nominee to be Speaker.  Emmer then requested a secret ballot to see how many would actually vote for him.  He lost 26 of the extreme MAGA members, putting him in roughly the same boat as McCarthy was in three weeks ago.  So, after a few hours of attempting to whip GOP votes, he too withdrew himself from consideration.  This put the GOP back in the same boat they’ve been in since the MAGA coup against McCarthy.  After a few more hours of spit-balling potential nominees, by mid-evening, some GOP members were floating a “Tag-Team of McCarthy-Jordan as joint-Speaker.”   However, Constitutionally, the job is singular (not a two-person job) including only one person being second in line of Presidential succession.  At the same time, Democrats sat back and reveled in the schadenfreude as the country continued to be a laughing stock to the world and no Congressional business even gets attempted.  (It is apparently beyond the pale for Democrats to approach moderate Republicans saying they’d back one of them OR for moderate Republicans to approach Democrats offering to back Jeffries, since the GOP still has the votes if he tries to get out of line)  In short, your tribe is still more important than your party and your party is still more important than the country in D.C.)  Regardless, late Tuesday night, the GOP decided to nominate Rep. Johnson (of LA) as Speaker and take his name to the floor for a vote.  The GOP did take a roll call vote in private on how many of their caucus would support the fifth choice for the job, but by that point of the night, more than 20 of their caucus had already gone home. So, the drama remains as to whether GOP Choice number five will can get elected Speaker, and if so whether he will have enough support to work around the extremists in his own party (let alone dealing with Representatives across the aisle.

In miscellaneous earnings news, it’s interesting that even though GOOGL posted strong earnings after the close, beating on both lines and showing 11% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, post-market traders jumped on the fact its cloud computing unit reported $20 million lower-than-expected revenue. (Bear in mind that this sub-unit missed by $20 million on a report of almost $77 billion in total revenue. Talk about splitting hairs.) So, despite a strong report, GOOGL stock was down as much as 6.5% in after-market trading on their beats.

So far this morning, ATLKY, ADP, CME, GD, GPI, HLT, MCO, MSM, NAVI, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, PRG, ROP, TMUS, TMHC, TELNY, TNL, UMC, and WAB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALFVY, AVY, CSTM, OC, SLGN, TDY, TMO, VRT, and WNC all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, EVR, GBX, LAD, and PAG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, LTH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AVY, LTH, EDU, SLGN, and TDY lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, PRG, ROP, TMHC, VRT, and WAB all raised their guidance.

In mortgage news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reports mortgage loan applications fell just 1% last week, even as the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan shot up from 7.70% to 7.90% on average.  Refinancing loan applications increase 2% from the previous week while new home purchase loan applications fell 2%.  MBA noted that the percentage of loans sought which were adjustable-rate increased to 9.5%.  (The average 5/1 ARM loan was at a 6.99% rate for the week, skyrocketing from 6.52% the week prior.)

With that background, it looks like markets are undecided again this morning. All three major index ETFs are printing small, white-bodied, Spinning Top type candles in the premarket. However, the DIA gapped up a bit before forming its Spinning Top while the SPY and QQQ gapped down before forming their own. With that said, keep in mind that all three remain well below their T-line (8ema) and the SPY is just below its 200sma. Once again, we have no really major economic news today and Fed Chair Powell does not speak until after hte close. So, beware of more whipsaw and don’t be surprised if intraday moves are reversed in just a short period. (There does not seem to be strong momentum from either side.) In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are back to being near their T-line (8ema) and none are extended. The T2122 indicator does remain in the middle of its oversold territory, but it has moved up off the very bottom. So, we may need a little more pause or bounce to relieve pressure, but we are not overly stretched. The only thing we can say for sure is the Bears maintain control of trend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

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Generally Good Earnings and GOP Vote

Monday brought us a gap lower at the open (down 0.38% in the SPY, down 0.38% in the DIA, and 0.39% in the QQQ).  This was followed by 15 minutes of follow-through by the Bears in all three major index ETFs.  However, then the Bulls said “enough” and rallied all three until 1 p.m.  Then it was the Bears’ turn to say “Not so fast, my friend” to lead a selloff the rest of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles across the board.  All three of the major index ETFs flirted with printing a Piercing Arrow candle before melting back.  The SPY printed a white-bodied Doji-type candle.  At the same time, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle, and the DIA remained the weakest of the three, printing a black-bodied Inverted Hammer candle. All three remain well below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on just about average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+0.04) being the only sector to (barely) remain in the green.  Meanwhile, Energy (-1.44%) was way out front leading the other sectors lower.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.17% (closing in its opening gap), the DIA lost 0.56% (closing below its opening gap), and QQQ gained 0.30% (closing above its gap down).  VXX fell 3.48% to close at 25.54 and T2122 climbed slightly but remained at the bottom of its oversold territory at 1.89.  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 4.85% (after being above 5.021% early in the day) while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.27% to close at $86.08 per barrel.  So, on Monday the market was a whipsaw.  There was a gap lower at the open, a strong morning rally until 1 p.m., and then a strong selloff the rest of the day.  With that said, there was no change in character for the market and not much change in the major index ETFs.

There was no economic news reported Monday.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, the UAW and defense contractor GD reached a tentative labor contract Monday. This deal avoided a strike of GD. In another aside, metal workers in Brazil announced they will strike GM next Monday.  This strike by 4,000 workers comes after 1,200 of their fellow workers were laid off by GM.  (That plant makes engines and gearboxes for S-10 pickup trucks.)  Later, the UAW added roughly 6,800 more STLA workers to the strike, all located at the STLA Ram full-sized pickup plant in a Detroit suburb.  UAW President Fain said STLA’s offer is the weakest among the big three in terms of wage progression (time in a pay tier), temp worker pay, cost of living adjustments, etc.  (UAW negotiators told CNBC that two major issues that STLA has not addressed at all is their discussion to move Ram production from the US to Mexico and the closing of an IL plant earlier this year.)  This was the first expansion of the strike in two weeks.  STLA said it was “outraged that the UAW has chosen to expand its strike action against the company” and going on to cite its recent improved offer.  (Industry analysts say all three of the automakers have roughly 100 days of inventory of their best-selling pickup trucks.)  It is worth noting that GM reported a $3.1 billion quarterly profit and also removed its forward guidance altogether ahead of impacts from the strike.

Click for video

In stock news, LICY plummeted Monday to close down almost 46% after the company suspended construction of its hub in Rochester, NY.  At the same time, FSR said it is significantly cutting the price of its Ocean Extreme SUS.  The announced price cut is 11% ($7,500).  Elsewhere, MSFT announced it will spend $3.2 billion in Australia to expand its AI and cloud computing capacity in that country.  The move is widely seen as a carrot that can be taken back ahead of Australia’s coming AI regulation (which is now in the public comment period).  The announcement said MSFT will train 300k Australians in skills needed to succeed in a digital economy.  At the same time, STLA unveiled 12 “refreshed” electric vans (small, mid-sized, and large).  Sales of these 12 will largely be in Europe where stricter emission laws make them more attractive.  The revised designs will go on sale in mid-2024.  Later, AAPL ramped up its late-to-the-party AI efforts by investing $1 billion to integrate AI tools in Siri, Apple Music, and other programs.  Meanwhile, LMT announced it has ended its partnership with EADSY (Airbus) which was part of the defense contractor’s bid for the project to upgrade the US Air Force’s KC-135 tanker fleet.  This may have been due to the Air Force reducing the project size from 140-160 tankers to just 75.  Regardless, LMT dropped its bid for the project.  Later, Reuters reported that NVDA is in the early stages of developing a line of ARM-based CPUs compatible with MSFT Windows.  (AMD is also developing an ARM-based processor line.)  QCOM already offers an AMR-based chip for laptop products.  (ARM-based chips are much more power-efficient.)  The NVDA move was unknown and all three pose threats to INTC, which along with AMD have been the kings of x86-based CPUs for decades.  (INTC fell 3% on the news and NVDA popped by about the same amount.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that IFF is working with advisors on the potential sale of its pharmaceutical unit in a deal expected to new in the area of $3.5 billion.  After the close, Reuters reported that on Sunday an ALK plane bound for San Francisco had to make an emergency diversion to Portland OR.  The cause of the diversion was that an off-duty pilot, riding back to his home airport on a cockpit jump seat, attempted to disable the jet’s engines mid-flight.  That pilot was subdued and then arrested in Portland, booked on 83 counts of attempted murder. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, TLSA confirmed that it is under investigation by the Dept. of Justice and has received subpoenas related to benefits paid to/for CEO Musk, marketing claims on vehicle range, and personnel decisions.  Elsewhere, the FDA requested more efficacy data from REGN and SNY related to their joint product called Dupixent.  (The FDA previously reject an initial application, but the drug companies feel the drug has shown significant benefits and are supplying the requested additional data.)  Later, WFC lost a $310 bond deal (was replaced by RJF) for a school district as the state of TX is scrutinizing the bank over its environmental policies.  (The oil and gas-controlled state wants to punish any banks that back climate initiatives such has a “Net Zero Banking Alliance.”)  JPM and BAC are also under investigation by the TX Attorney General (formerly impeached Paxton) for the same reasons.  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of missile systems from LMT, NOC, and RTX to the UK, Finland, and Lithuania.  The deal pricing were not detailed, but it will be in the $2+ billion region.  Later, CPB announced its $2.33 billion acquisition of private Sovos Brands has been delayed until 2024 after the FTC asked for more details on the deal.  The company said it still expects to close the deal in mid-2024 after the FTC review is complete.  Also after the close, INDV agreed to pay $385 million to settle lawsuits from US drug wholesales that alleged the company had suppressed generic competition to its Suboxone opioid drug.  Finally, JPM’s recent $290 million settlement of a class-action suit related to the bank’s alleged financing of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking was challenged Monday evening.  The Attorneys General of 16 states plus the District of Columbia jointly objected to the settlement which contained language saying the settlement money would be refunded to the bank if any sovereign or government sought damages arising from the sex trafficking of Epstein or his associates.  This was obviously intended to put the state’s in a position of deciding between hurting the victims who were paid $290 million under the settlement and suing the bank.

After the close, BRO, CDNS, CLF, CR, MEDP, and SSD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ARE, PKG, TBI, and WRB all missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HRI and TFII both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AAN and CCK missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AAN, CDNS, CCK, and TBI all lowered their forward guidance.  However, ARE, CR, MEDP, and PKG all raised guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  India (-1.34%) and Hong Kong (-1.05%) paced the losses while South Korea (+1.12%) and Singapore (+1.00%) led the more plentiful gainers.  In Europe, we see an even more pronounced lean toward the green at midday.  Four of the bourses are barely in the red (led by the FTSE, -0.02%) while the CAC (+0.70%) and DAX (+0.30%) lead most of the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a solidly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.44% open, the SPY is implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.65% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are moving back up to 4.867% and Oil (WTI) is down to $85.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include MMM, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, BCS, CNC, KO, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FI, FELE, GTX, GE, GM, HAL, HCA, HRI, ITW, IVZ, KMB, NEE, NHYDY, NVS, NUE, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, DGX, RTX, SHW, SPOT, SYF, TECK, TRU, VZ, and XRX.  Then, after the close, GOOGL, BYD, CNI, CHX, CB, CSGP, ENVA, FFIV, GOOG, HA, MTDR, MSFT, RRC, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, V, WFRD, and WM report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Building Permits, New Home Sales, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell.  On Thursday, we get September Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q3 GDP, Preliminary Q3 GDP Price Index, September Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Retail Inventories, Sept. Pending Home Sales, and we hear from Fed member Waller.  Finally, on Friday, Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from ALFVY, APH, ATLKY, ADP, AVY, BA, BOKF, CME, CSTM, EVR, FTV, GD, GBX, GPI, HES, HLT, LTH, LAD, MHO, MCO, MSM, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OMF, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, RDUS, ROP, R, SLGN, TMUS, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, WNC, WAB, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, AMP, NLY, AR, ATR, ASGN, AVB, AGR, BKR, BHE, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CYH, EW, ESI, EQT, EQIX, EG, FLEX, FLS, FBIN, GL, GGG, ICLR, IEX, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, LSTR, MAT, META, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NBR, NXT, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, STC, SUI, TER, TNET, TROX, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR.  On Thursday, AOS, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, AMBP, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, BG, CRS, CARR, CX, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CFR, EXP, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FSV, ULCC, FCN, HOG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KVUE, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LEA, LII, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MAS, MA, MRK, NYCB, NEM, NOC, ORI, OSK, PATK, BTU, PCG, BPOP, RS, RCL, STX, SAH, LUV, STM, FTI, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, UPS, VLO, VLY, VC, VMC, GWW, WST, WEX, WTW, AB, AMZN, AJG, BIO, SAM, COF, CSL, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ERIE, FE, F, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, NOV, OLN, PFG, RSG, RMD, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TEX, TXRH, X, VALE, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABBV, AER, ARLP, AON, ARCB, AN, AVTR, BAH, CBRE, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, EQNR, XOM, FMX, FTS, GNTX, IMO, LECO, LYB, NWL, NVT, PSX, POR, SAIA, SNY, SWK, TROW, and XEL.

So far this morning, MMM, ARCC, CNC, KO, DHR, DOW, GE, GM, FI, PNR, DGX, RTX, SHW, SPOT, and SYF all beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADM, BCS, DOV, GTX, HAL, KMB, NHYDY, NVS, PHM, VZ, and XRX all reported missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HCA, IVZ, and PACW all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ABG, GLW, PII, TECK, and TRU all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GM removed its forward guidance altogether.  At the same time, MMM, AWI, CNC, KO, DHR, FI, and SHW all raised their forward guidance.  However, GLW, DOV, and TRU also lowered their guidance.

In hedge fund news, fund manager Bill Ackman announced Monday that his fund had covered its months-long short on US Treasury Bonds.  Ackman said there is too much risk in the world and he now expects a significant flight to the safety of bonds to bid up their price.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that both JPM and GS have told them that major hedge funds have trimmed their positions in the mega-cap tech giants ahead of earnings.  The article specifically cited META, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA as the targets of the position trimming.

In miscellaneous news, in a hopeful sign of progress in the negotiations with Hamas, the group released two more hostages Monday.  Both were elderly women.  However, at the same time, Israel traded artillery fire with Iran-backed Hezbollah across the Irael-Lebanon border.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that China is set to approve $137 billion in additional sovereign debt Tuesday to raise money for more infrastructure spending and other economic stimulus plans.  Finally, one of the nine GOP House Speaker candidates dropped out of the race after delivering his speech to the GOP Caucus on Monday.  The plan is for the GOP to decide on their favorite candidate today and maybe even get to a floor vote on the position later.  However, the dysfunction has not been overcome with arguments over secret versus public ballots in the caucus as well as whether or not to proceed to another floor vote if the GOP vote is not at least 217 in favor of one candidate.  There is also the matter of half the candidates at least publicly being Trump-aligned and denying the results of the last election. 

In late-breaking news, French President Macron proposed an international coalition to fight ISIS (which Israel and the US have labeled Hamas) during a trip to Israel.  In “It’s not just you who makes bad trades” news, the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world (I had no idea it was Norway), the Norwegian Government Pension Fund said it lost $34 billion in Q3.  (For reference, that fund has $1.4 trillion in assets.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control of the premarket. All three of the major index ETFs opened higher, have modest lower wicks, and are giving us white-bodied candles that are near their highs of the early session. These are not indecisive candles and indicate a little momentum will be carried into the open, presumably based on good earnings from major players. With that said, it is important to remember that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are remain well below their T-line (8ema) and even the short-term trend of the last few days has not been completely broken. Again, we have no really major economic news today. So, beware of volatility and don’t be surprised if we wobble into some over-extension relief without really changing anything in the chart. In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are starting to get stretched out below the T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator also remains deep in the bottom of its oversold territory. So, we need a pause or bounce to relieve pressure even if the Bears maintain control. Just remember that the market can stay over-extended a lot longer than we can stay solvent being right too early. So, don’t go betting on “we’re due.”

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

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Rough Day

Index charts started the day making lower lows as the 10-year bond topped 5% but as it began to ease markets whipsawed higher and whipped again to finish a rough day mostly lower. After the bell today we will begin the tech giant reports with the highly anticipated GOOGL and MSFT results. Expect some wild price action as traders and investors react from this extreme short-term oversold market condition.  Buckle up the earnings over the next ten trading days could determine market direction for the rest of the year.

Asian markets recovered from early losses to close the day with modest gains with only Hong Kong slightly lower.  European markets trade cautiously higher after disappointing results from Barclays while waiting on an important manufacturing report.  U.S. futures push higher this morning as earnings roll out pondering the pending big tech reports after the bell.  Anything is possible so plan your risk carefully.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday include ADM, ARCC, ABG, BYD, CNI, CNC, KO, CB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, WIRE, FFIV, FI, FELE, GE, GOOGL, GM, HAL, HA, ITW, IVZ, JBT, KMB, MMM, MSFT, MTDR, NEE, NEP, NUE, ONB, PACR, PACW, PNR, PII, PHM, DGX, RRC, RHI, RTX, SHW, SMPL, SNAP, SPOT, SYF, TECK, TDOC, TXN, TRU, VZ, VICR, V, WM, XRX.

News & Technicals’

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, reported a loss of 374 billion Norwegian kroner ($34 billion) in the third quarter of 2021, due to a weaker performance of the stock market. The fund, which is officially called the Government Pension Fund Global, still managed to beat its benchmark index by 0.17 percentage points. The fund’s deputy chief executive, Trond Grande, said in a statement that the third quarter was weaker than the first half of the year when the fund gained 1.4 trillion Norwegian kroner ($126 billion). The fund invests in stocks, bonds, and real estate around the world, and holds about 1.4% of all listed shares globally.

Barclays, the British banking giant, reported a lower-than-expected profit of £1.03 billion for the third quarter of 2021, down from £1.51 billion a year ago. The bank’s CEO, C.S. Venkatakrishnan, said that the bank “continued to manage credit well, remained disciplined on costs, and maintained a strong capital position” despite a “mixed market backdrop.” The bank faced challenges from lower income in its investment banking division and higher provisions for bad loans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a profit of £1.18 billion for the quarter, which was also lower than the £1.33 billion profit in the second quarter of 2021.

Nvidia and AMD, two of the leading manufacturers of PC chips, are reportedly developing chips that use the Arm-based instruction set, which is different from the x86 instruction set used by Intel’s PC chips. The Arm-based instruction set is more common in smartphones and other mobile devices, as it allows for lower power consumption and longer battery life. According to a Reuters report, Nvidia and AMD are aiming to challenge Intel’s dominance in the PC market by offering more energy-efficient and cost-effective alternatives. The report also said that Nvidia and AMD are working with Microsoft, which has been developing its own Arm-based PC operating system and software.

The indexes had a rough day whipsawing as they eyed the 10-year Treasury yield and pondered the pending and highly anticipated tech giant reports. The yield reached above 5.0% in the morning but retreated to around 4.85% by the end of the day. The sharp rise in government bond yields has caused more fluctuations in both stocks and bonds. Higher yields can also affect the economy and the markets in various ways, such as by raising borrowing costs, lowering stock valuations, and reducing the bond price returns. China’s banking system is also in crisis according to a Bloomberg report as money flees the country adding worries of global economic instability.  Today we have a barrage of earnings events that include the market movers of GOOGL and MSFT after the bell. The economic calendar is light with a PMI composite, Richmond Fed Mfg., and a 2-year bond auction to inspire. Expect considerable price volatility and perhaps a short squeeze IF the data supports a relief rally from this extreme short-term oversold condition.  In fact, the next ten trading days could set the direction for the rest of the year so plan carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fourth Consecutive Session

The bear ran roughshod over the bulls for the fourth consecutive session on Friday erasing October’s gains.  A hawkish Jerome Powell drove bond yields higher and Middle Eastern war worries drove the market sentiment further damaging index chart technicals.  Today, with the 10-year bond topping 5% we have a few notable earnings and a light economic calendar to inspire price movement.  The T2122 indicator is in an extremely oversold condition suggesting a relief could begin at any time unless the bearish data continue to pile on. Plan for substantial price volatility, whipsaws, and maybe even a short-squeeze rally sometime this week.

Overnight Asian market closed red across the board as the China CSI fell to 2019 levels.  European markets also see red across the board as they monitor rising rates and developments in the Middle East. U.S. futures gave up early gains as the 10-year yield topped 5% but as we move toward the open they have also recovered off session lows in a very volatile premarket trade.  Plan for just about anything in this short-term oversold condition.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Monday include AGYS, ARE, BRO, CADE, CALX, CLF, CR, MEDP, PKG, SSD, WRB, & WSFS.

News & Technicals’

Chevron, one of the largest oil companies in the world, has announced that it will acquire Hess, a smaller oil company, in a $53 billion deal. The deal will be paid entirely in stock, meaning that Hess shareholders will receive Chevron shares in exchange for their Hess shares. The deal will allow Chevron to expand its presence in Guyana, a South American country that has huge oil reserves. Chevron and Hess are already partners in some oil projects in Guyana, along with Exxon Mobil, another oil giant. The deal will make Chevron and Exxon Mobil the main competitors in two of the most promising oil regions in the world – shale and Guyana. Shale is a type of rock that contains oil and gas and can be extracted using a technique called fracking. Guyana is a new frontier for oil exploration, as it has been discovered to have billions of barrels of oil under its seabed.

Google, the tech giant owned by Alphabet, is facing an antitrust investigation in Japan over its search practices on mobile devices. The Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) announced on Monday that it is looking into whether Google has violated the country’s competition law by making deals with Android smartphone makers to give preference to its apps and services. Google denied any wrongdoing and said that Android is an “open-source platform that has enabled a diversity” of partners and device manufacturers. The JFTC’s probe comes amid growing scrutiny of Google’s dominance in the global digital market.

Philips, a Dutch company that specializes in health technology, has raised its full-year outlook after reporting strong results for the third quarter of 2021. The company said its core profit more than doubled to 457 million euros ($483.3 million), beating analysts’ expectations. The company also saw an 11% increase in comparable sales, reaching 4.5 billion euros. The growth was driven by higher demand for its medical scanners, patient monitoring equipment, and personal health devices, which helped the company cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Philips said it expects to deliver a double-digit improvement in adjusted earnings per share and a high single-digit increase in comparable sales for the full year.

The equity markets continued to slide for the fourth consecutive session, erasing the gains made in early October. Investors are nervous about the rising Treasury yields, which reached new highs for this cycle, and the increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Fed Chair Powell delivered a hawkish message saying the inflation is still too high and more rate increases are possible but data dependent. The defensive sectors outperformed, while growth-style investments fell behind. Banks also struggled as Regions Financial warned of further drops in net interest income. Today the bulls and bears will look for inspiration in the earnings reports and of course bond yields that continue to rise this morning. The economic calendar is light for the beginning of this week but market-moving reports are pending at the end of this week. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug