The Calm Before the Storm
Although bullish, so far this week the price action has been choppy. Many individual stocks performed well, but overall the market was simply marking time as it waits for the FOMC minutes and the kick off to earnings season. Think of this as the calm before the storm. As the drama earnings season unfolds, we can expect to see greater premarket futures activity around the reports as the market first speculates and then reacts to the new data. New and inexperienced traders often find earnings to be very challenging due to the big price swings they can create.
My suggestion is to focus on the price action, support levels, resistance levels and trend of the overall market. Currently, the trend is up. Stay the course and trade with the trend but avoid speculating on the individual stock earnings reports. Also, I suggest turning off CNBC and all the emotion they stir up around events. Drama is great for their ratings but not so much for your trading accounts.
On the Calendar
The Economic Calendar today is dominated by Fed. We have a Fed Speaker at 7:17 AM and another at 2:40 PM. However, it’s the FOMC Minutes releasing at 2:00 PM that will garner the most focus. The market will be looking for clues not only to future interest rate increases but also details of their balance sheet unwinding plans. At 10:00 AM is the JOLTS report which tracks monthly changes in job openings. The consensus is expecting this number to remain very strong at 6.160 million.
I’m showing just over 20 events on the Earnings Calendar today. Before the market open we will hear from BLK, DAL, and FAST. Keep in mind this is the calm before the storm on the earnings front. Thursday we will hear from C & JPM with BAC and WFC on deck for Friday to kick off earnings season. Make sure you are doing your due diligence on every trade because, and earnings surprise can be very costly!
Action Plan
Yesterday the morning pop was once again met with whipsaw in price action then followed by lots of chop the rest of the day. The managed to close at yet another record high while the SPY, QQQ, and IWM chose to rest in a consolidating range. Futures are currently pointing to flat to slightly lower open, but that could change because I’m writing this 3 hours before the open.
Don’t be surprised to see very light volumes and choppy price action until the release of the FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM. Directly after the release, we could see some fast intraday price swings in reaction. After that drama subsides, the market focus will turn directly to the big bank earnings which will begin before the market opens on Thursday. As you know, earnings reports are unpredictable, and the big bank reports are normally market moving events so plan your trading accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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ACRX – Bullish J-Hook Continuation Pattern
ACRX (Acelrx Pharmaceutics) The ACRX Chart has presented us with a bullish J-Hook Continuation Pattern from a Bullish T-Line Run. The Volatility Stops have helped to show a supporting leave on the Hook pullback, and the overall volume is rising.
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Good Trading – Hit and Run Candlesticks
Learn more about Hit and Run Candlesticks, and today’s trade idea and plan plus the 10 or more members trade ideas, starting at 8:45 EST AM every morning with the HOG and then Rick at 9:10 EST. Every day we teach and trade using the T-Line, Candlesticks, Support and Resistance, Trends, chart patterns and continuation patterns.
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► Ticker (MNKD Hit another High Yesterday) – You could have profited about 305% or about $505.00, If 100 shares when we posted to our members on August 28.
► Eyes On The Market (SPY)
The T-Line has caught up with price has price has moved sideways for three days now in preparation for the FOMC minutes released today. The 64K dollar question is how will the marker handle and decision or comments for the FEDS? Up until today, the Bulls have ruled the roost. No doubt there are may bets oh on this, I would rather let the dust settle, and the walk in with a cup of coffee and calmly do what I make every, trade and make a very nice living for myself and family.
Rick’s trade ideas for the day – MEMBERS ONLY
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Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
The Bulls take a healthy rest.
The Bulls take a healthy rest.
After a strong and extended upward run the Bulls take a healthy rest. As much as we all like to see the market power higher a nice rest to develop a new level of price support is productive. If the Bulls maintain control while building support, more buyers will be attracted, and confidence in the trend will expand. Having taken profits into the rally, we are in very comfortable position without all the pressure. Our profits are safe while those that allow greed to control their trading likely saw their gains diminish yesterday. We are now free to find new low-risk entries.
On the Calendar
Another light day on Economic Calendar with the NFIB Small Business Index at 6:00 AM Eastern. There is a Fed Speaker at 10:00 AM and one at 8:00 PM today as well as several bond auctions to round out the day.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are a few companies reporting, but I don’t see any market movers. Keep in mind that Earnings Season will officially kick off on Thursday with reports from C and JPM. Make sure to check all position you hold and those you are considering buying for earnings dates. Fail to do so, and the consequences can be significant.
Action Plan
Yesterday the market took a well-deserved rest pulling back slightly with choppy price action. With the banks back open today we should see some better price action, but don’t be surprised if it remains choppy as we wait for the Fed Minutes. Another reason the market could continue to pause is the kick off to Earnings Season beginning on Thursday. Will the Bulls or the Bears be inspired as results roll out?
The overall up-trend continues strong, so I will continue looking for long positions. Futures are once again pushing higher with the Dow suggesting it will open at or near record highs. I would be cautious of chasing the opening pop as it could produce another whipsaw much like what happened yesterday. I will give it a good 15 to 30 minutes to see if real buyers step in after the professional pump.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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INAP – Stick Sandwich Breakout
INAP (Internap Corp) The INAP Chart has presented us with a bullish Stick Sandwich that broke out of a 2-month consolidation period. The first stick also printed a Bullish Morning Star signal. INAP is one that we will be watching for a better low-risk entry
►Talking about today’s Trade Ideas
Starting at 9:10 EST each day I explain the possible trade from start to finish: Why chosen, entry, stop and profit zones. Answer questions to help you succeed in trading.
Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual • Change your future and enjoy the life of working from home with swing trading. The next step is up to you.
Good Trading – Hit and Run Candlesticks
Learn more about Hit and Run Candlesticks, and today’s trade idea and plan plus the 10 or more members trade ideas, starting at 8:45 EST AM every morning with the HOG and then Rick at 9:10 EST. Every day we teach and trade using the T-Line, Candlesticks, Support and Resistance, Trends, chart patterns and continuation patterns.
►Trade Updates for Hit and Run Candlesticks
Currently holding ten long positions
Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual • We control our risk and manage our gains • We teach the Same • Cancel Anytime
► Ticker (WPRT) – You could have profited about 34.95% or about $101.00, If 100 shares when we posted to our members on September 12.
► Eyes On The Market (SPY)
FOMC minutes Wednesday. We have said the past few days the SPY was a bit long in the tooth and needed to slow down and that is what is happening. As long as the bull can keep the SPY above support, we are in good bullish shape, below $251.90 could be more than the bull can handle for awhile.
Above $10.50 the VIX would be poking the bear. The VIX ran to the 34-EMA yesterday closing just under on the daily chart. The 3-day chart the VIX is painting a Morning Star Candle signal along with a double bottom.
Rick’s trade ideas for the day – MEMBERS ONLY
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Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
Bulls continue to show strength.
Bulls continue to show strength.
After such an impressive run higher, the Bulls continue to show strength this morning. The Dow futures are pointing to a new record high, and the VIX hovers near historic lows. Is there really no fear in the market or are we looking at mass complacency? Your guess is as good as mine. It is logical to think a pullback could begin at any time after such a strong bullish move. However, it’s a mistake to try an predict a top.
As I was coming up as a trader, this is a mistake that I would repeat over and over. I would predict that the market was up so much it absolutely had to come back down. Sadly that proved to be a very costly mistake for me. At times I would stand aside anticipating a pullback only the watch the market continues moving higher and leaving behind. I would often miss out on the biggest bull run of the year. Even worse I would at times get short thinking the Bears had to take over soon only to be run over by the bulls.
When we look at the charts, it’s logical to think a pullback is likely and we should prepare. However, if we put our bias aside, we see a chart showing no evidence of a pullback as of now. I am not suggesting we should throw caution to the wind and buy with both hands if fact I have been taking profits into the strength. I am only trying to suggest that you see the chart as it is not as you believe it should be! Emotion can easily trump logic making a run last much longer than anyone expects.
On the Calendar
About all that’s on the Economic Calendar is that today is Columbus Day. As a result, banks and bond markets closed in observance of the national holiday.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are 14 companies reporting today, but I don’t see anything particularly noteworthy or market moving.
Action Plan
The DIA, SPY, IWM, and QQQ’s decided to a little rest on Friday morning, but the Bulls had another plan’s for the afternoon lifting them off the intraday lows. The QQQ’s managed a new record high close by the end of trading on Friday following through after it’s impressive breakout Thursday. As of now, the futures are suggesting a bullish open today with the Dow possibly opening today’s trading at yet another record high. Friday saw the VIX rise slightly after having reached a new closing low Thursday.
With the banks closed today it’s possible we could see a choppy light day after the morning rush. There are a lot of good-looking charts to choose from but make sure that you’re not chasing. I want to continue to trade long with this very bullish trend however we should not be surprised to see profit taking begin at any time. Plan accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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ARLM – Breakout, Flag, and Hammer On Support
ARLM (Alarm Com) The ALRM Chart has presented us with a bullish trend, breakout, flag and hammer on support. Bullish confirmation above the Hammer usually within 3-4 days. Expected buying above the Hammer body open.
►Talking about today’s Trade Ideas
Starting at 9:10 EST each day I explain the possible trade from start to finish: Why chosen, entry, stop and profit zones. Answer questions to help you succeed in trading.
Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual • Change your future and enjoy the life of working from home with swing trading. The next step is up to you.
Good Trading – Hit and Run Candlesticks
Learn more about Hit and Run Candlesticks, and today’s trade idea and plan plus the 10 or more members trade ideas, starting at 8:45 EST AM every morning with the HOG and then Rick at 9:10 EST. Every day we teach and trade using the T-Line, Candlesticks, Support and Resistance, Trends, chart patterns and continuation patterns.
►Trade Updates for Hit and Run Candlesticks
Last week we closed a couple of positions and took 50% off the take on several positions to protect over the weekend.
Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual • We control our risk and manage our gains • We teach the Same • Cancel Anytime
► Ticker (SHW) – You could have profited about 11.3%% or about $3382.00, If 100 shares when we posted to our members on September 11.
► Eyes On The Market (SPY)
With a bank holiday today and a Fed FOMC meeting on Wednesday I would suspect the market will be somewhat quite until Wednesday afternoon.
Friday the SPY closed with an inside day doji, the 8th day in a row that the SPY closed higher than it’s open. Price Action and the T-Line are still working together to create a bullish environment.
Friday the VIX closed higher than it’s open and closed above the previous day’s candle. Near historical lows and in double bottom territory the VIX may be trying to mount a upward push. Above $10.50 would be poking the bear.
Rick’s trade ideas for the day – MEMBERS ONLY
Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
Can this Bull Run continue?
As this week trading week comes to a close, the majority of traders have just one question on their mind. Can this Bull Run continue? Common sense would tell us the odds of a pullback after seven straight days of new records is pretty high. However, the strength of the run ahead of earnings season already defies logic. I say that only to remind you that predicting what a market may or may not do is an exercise in futility. Anything is possible! The best we can do as traders is have a plan with a set of rules to manage our emotions. As a result of my rules made it necessary for me to lighten up my risk to the market by taking some profits. Logic says a pullback is likely, but the price action has no hint of a pullback as of now. If there are more buyer than sellers, then the market could still move higher! What matters is that you are managing you and remembering that this is a business.
On the Calendar
On the Economic Calendar today we have the Mr. Big report at 8:30 AM with the Employment Situation. As this report will incorporate the effect of the hurricanes, the consensus estimates are all over the place. Essentially the best they can do is guess. For example, the nonfarm payroll expects 100K, but the consensus ranges between Zero and 140K. There are two reports unlikely to move the market, Wholesale trade at 10:00 AM and Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM. There are 5 Fed Speakers on the calendar today.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are only eight companies reporting today. I do not see any earnings reports that are particularly notable.
Action Plan
After the news reported a successful vote in Congress allowing the Tax Plan Process to move forward, the Bulls came out in force to express their support. As I mentioned above, I reduced some of my risk to the market closing part or all of a few positions to capture gains ahead of the weekend. The VIX made a new closing low yesterday below a 9-handle. Truly amazing! I think it would be wise to guard yourself against complacency.
Once again I will be more focused on taking profits today, but I will not rule out the possibility of new trades.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Although bullish, so far this week the price action has been choppy. Many individual stocks performed well, but overall the market was simply marking time as it waits for the FOMC minutes and the kick off to earnings season. Think of this as the calm before the storm. As the drama earnings season unfolds, we can expect to see greater premarket futures activity around the reports as the market first speculates and then reacts to the new data. New and inexperienced traders often find earnings to be very challenging due to the big price swings they can create.
