Market Waited

Market Waited

As expected the price action reflected uncertainty as the market waited for the release of the CPI inflation data coming out before today.  With the market uber-confident, the Fed will begin cutting rates early this year expect substantial price volatility as traders react.  There is a lot of blue sky above if the number is bullish but should it prove not to be so bullish be prepared because big point-down moves are also possible.  Remember as soon as we are past the morning reaction the market will quickly shift its gaze toward Friday and the big bank report along with a reading on the PPI with a 3-day weekend just beyond.  Plan carefully!

Overnight Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan continuing to surge closing above 35K.  European market trade this morning with cautions bullishness waiting on the U.S. data. Futures in the U.S. also suggest a cautiousness pointing to a flat open but that will quickly change after the data is revealed. Anything is possible so be prepared at the market reacts.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday are only INFY.

News & Technicals’

The consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation, is expected to have increased by 0.2% in December 2023, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. This is higher than the Fed’s target of 2% but lower than the peak of 4.5% in June 2023. The Fed has signaled that it will cut interest rates twice in 2024, but the market is pricing in four rate cuts, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook for the economy. The Fed faces a delicate balance between easing too much and risking higher inflation, or easing too little and triggering a recession that many economists have been warning about.

Citigroup’s fourth-quarter earnings will be hit by two major factors: the plummeting value of the Argentine peso and the cost of streamlining its operations. The bank revealed on Wednesday that it suffered $880 million in losses from converting its assets in Argentina to U.S. dollars, as the peso fell by more than 40% in 2023. It also incurred $780 million in expenses related to CEO Jane Fraser’s plan to simplify the bank’s structure and reduce its global footprint. These charges are much higher than the $400 million that CFO Mark Mason had estimated at a Goldman Sachs conference in December. Citigroup will report its fourth-quarter results on Friday morning.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given the green light to the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the country. This is a historic moment for the cryptocurrency industry, as it signals the growing acceptance and legitimacy of Bitcoin as an asset class. The approval will pave the way for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the largest holder of Bitcoin with $29 billion in assets, to convert into an ETF and offer investors lower fees and greater liquidity. Other major financial institutions, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, are also expected to launch their own Bitcoin funds in the near future.

Germany is facing a severe transport crisis as train drivers stage a three-day strike over pay and working conditions. The strike, which began on Wednesday and will last until Friday evening, has paralyzed rail services across the country, affecting millions of commuters, travelers, and businesses. The strike comes amid ongoing protests by farmers who are unhappy with the government’s agricultural policies and environmental regulations. Some analysts have compared the situation to a general strike, the likes of which Germany has not seen since 1906. The economy minister, Peter Altmaier, was confronted by angry demonstrators last weekend and had to be escorted by security guards. The social unrest reflects the growing dissatisfaction and frustration among various sectors of German society.

As the market waited for the CPI data, U.S. stocks edged up, except for small-caps which fell slightly in a choppy session. Back in the U.S., the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla) continue doing the majority of the work with NVIDIA leading the pack. The efforts of the tech giants may finally achieve an all-time high breakout in the SPY as long as the pending inflation data corporates.  Before the bell watch for some price volatility with the release of the CPI report and Jobless Claims. The potential for big point moves is high and watch for whipsaws after the first knee-jerk reaction to the data.  Past that we have some bond auctions and more Fed speak to be aware of in the afternoon.  Keep in mind the market thinking will quickly shift to the Friday PPI report and kick off to the earnings session with several big bank reports before sliding into a 3-day weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Markets finished mostly lower in a choppy Tuesday session as CPI uncertainty ruled the day.  The QQQ outshined the rest with the tech giants providing the majority of the bullish effort.  Optimism grew among businesses yet remains below the 50-year average of 98.8 continuing to indicate small business uncertainty.  Today investors will look for inspiration in Mortgage Apps, Inventories, Petroleum Status, and Fed speak as we hurry up and wait on Thursday’s CPI report.  A lot is riding on this inflation report with so much bullish sentiment so plan carefully as big point moves are possible before the market opens tomorrow.

While we slept the Nikkei broke the 34,000 level for the time since 1990 while at the same time, the Chinese CSI 300 declined to near 5-lows as Asian markets closed the day mostly lower.  European markets trade mostly lower this morning with modest gains and losses in a caution session waiting on inflation data. However, U.S. futures are mixed this morning the Nasdaq leading the way higher as the tech giants dominate buying interest. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday include only, KBH.

News & Technicals’

X, a social media platform, said on Tuesday that it has finished a preliminary investigation into the hacked account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that showed a fake post. The post claimed that the SEC was investigating a major company for fraud. X said that the hack was not caused by any flaw in X’s systems, but by an unknown person who gained access to a phone number linked to the @SECGov account through another service. X said it has taken steps to secure the account and prevent further incidents.

A major attack by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea has triggered a response from the U.S. Navy, which has deployed four warships from Operation Prosperity Guardian to the area. The operation is a maritime security mission that aims to protect the vital waterway from Houthi threats. According to CNBC, about 50 merchant vessels are in the vicinity of the attack, which is the largest of its kind by the Houthi militants. The attack poses a serious risk to global trade and stability in the region.

HPE, a technology company that provides hardware, software, and services, announced on Tuesday that it will buy Juniper Networks, a network equipment maker, for $14 billion in cash. The deal will expand HPE’s portfolio of networking products and solutions, and strengthen its position in the cloud and edge computing markets. Juniper’s stock soared on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday night that the deal was imminent. HPE is paying $40 per share for Juniper, which is 32% higher than Juniper’s closing price on Monday before the news broke.

Uncertainty ruled the day on Tuesday as stocks ended mostly lower, as investors look ahead to the December CPI inflation data and the Friday kick-off of earnings season. The Nasdaq did better than both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones with the tech giants doing most of the lifting. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey rose a bit for December to 91.9, but was still lower than its 50-year average of 98.0, showing that small business confidence is low. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil recovered, rising over 1.5% to around $72, after falling over 4% on Monday, as oil markets faced more geopolitical and supply challenges. Today it’s likely more of the same hurry-up and wait choppy price action with a chance Mortgage Apps, Inventories, Petroleum Status, and more Fed pontification could provide some bullish or bearish inspiration.  With so much bullish sentiment a lot is riding on tomorrow’s CPI number so plan your risk carefully as big price moves are possible before the bell.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Waiting On CPI and Earnings

Markets gapped lower Tuesday as the Bears tried hard to deny the Bulls any follow-through on the Monday candles.  SPY opened 0.56 lower, DIA opened 0.54% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.74%. However, the Bulls stepped in right at the open to lead a rally (at least in the QQQ and SPY) that lasted until shortly after 1 p.m.  QQQ had recrossed the opening gap by 11:55 a.m. and continued higher while SPY recrossed its by 1 p.m. After that, both traded sideways with a slight bearish trend. Meanwhile, DIA just treaded sideways after the open, with a very slight bullish trend.  The action gave us white-bodied candles in the QQQ and SPY (both retesting and staying above their T-line) as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA (which gapped below and did not cross back above its T-line). 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Energy (-1.31%) out in front leading the way lower while Consumer Defensive was dead flat and Technology (+0.09%) was the lone green spot on the board.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.17%, DIA lost 0.44%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.30% to close at 14.84 and T2122 dropped back into the center of its mid-range at 45.00.  10-year bond yields were basically flat at 4.021% and Oil (WTI) climbed 2.05% to close at $72.22 per barrel.  On the day, we saw the significant gap lower but from that point forward the Bulls were in control all day.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The economic news on Tuesday included November Imports were down, at $316.90 billion (compared to the October value of $323.10 billion, meaning there was a $6.20 billion reduction).  At the same time, the Nov. Exports were down a bit less at $253.70 billion (versus the October $258.60 billion, a $4.90 billion reduction).  This resulted in a Nov. Trade Balance that was a bit better than anticipated at $63.20 billion (compared to a forecast $65.00 billion deficit and an October deficit of $64.50 billion).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a much larger drawdown than was expected at -5.215 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.200-million-barrel draw but not as much as the prior week’s 7.418-million-barrel drawdown).   

In Fed news, Vice-Chair Barr announced the end of the bank’s Term Funding Program (emergency loans initiated during the regional bank crisis).  Barr said financial stress s has been successfully eased and there is no immediate crisis in the banks sector.  He acknowledged concerns about banks coming to rely on the program as rates are cut later this year.  The program ends on March 11, a year after it was launched.  In a related story, GS analysts said Tuesday that they expect major bank profits to decrease 10% for Q4 when they begin reporting Friday.  GS attributed the decline in the forecast to a 15% fall in trading profits, higher payouts to depositors, and an unspecified increase in reserves for loan defaults.

After the close, PSMT beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.   At the same time, WDFC reported a massive miss on revenue and, at the same time, a huge beat on earnings ($140 million revenue versus $576 million forecast and $1.28/share earnings versus $1.00/share consensus forecast).

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In stock news, SSREY (Swiss Re, a major insurer of insurers) announced Tuesday that US insurers accounted for the bulk of 2023’s $95 billion in insured losses.  (The 30-year average of insured losses is $57 billion while the 10-year average is up to $90 billion due to climate change impacts).  At the same time, GE announced they have signed a record-setting deal to supply 674 large wind turbines to Canadian wind project developer Pattern Energy.  (Financial details of the “record-setting” deal were not disclosed.)  Later, Reuters reported that HPE is near to a $13 billion deal to buy JNPR with the deal to be announced as early as the next few days.  (JNPR ended the day 21.81% higher.)  At the same time, amidst all its problems related to the 737 MAX 9, BA announced its 2023 deliveries reached 528 aircraft, the most since 2018 (before its 737-MAX debacle of multiple crashes).  Elsewhere, UNP said Tuesday it is expecting a 24–48-hour delay in shipments as blizzards in the Midwest impact railroad operations.  In a related story, TSN announced it had closed meat processing plants in KS due to the storm.  Later, STLA, BB, and AMZN unveiled a collaboration product that allows “infotainment” to be streamed to vehicles 100 times faster than current methods.  At the same time, BLK announced the cut of roughly 600 jobs (3% of its workforce) but said the company expects a higher headcount by the end of 2024.  After the close, BA CEO Calhoun acknowledged the company’s “mistake” when speaking about the explosive decompression of an ALK flight on Sunday and subsequent loose bolts found on multiple airlines’ 737 MAX 9 jets.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, Reuters reported Tuesday that TSLA has lowered its guidance range, citing new tighter US vehicle-testing regulations.  As a result, TSLA cut the range estimates on all of its models.  (In the past, TSLA rigged the in-car algorithm to misreport miles left on a battery charge to assume absolute optimal conditions.  This stood in stark contrast to the stricter mileage standards traditional internal combustion vehicles have to follow.  In addition, in 2023 it was discovered that TSLA had created an internal team to suppress thousands and thousands of customer driving-range complaints.)  At the same time, 12 members of the UK parliament sent a public letter to the Chairman of the SEC, arguing that the US market regulator should block to listing of JBSAY (now pink sheet) on the NYSE.  Their reason is that the company is allegedly slowing efforts to curb global warming via deforestation.  Later, GOOGL presented its case in a Boston federal court to argue against computer scientists’ claims that the company should be forced to pay $1.67 billion for infringing patents related to the processors GOOGL uses to power AI applications.  At the same time, META announced it will hide more content from teens as regulators in the EU and US have pressed the company to protect children from harmful content.  (META says teens will, now, by default be placed under the most restrictive of their content-control settings.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that EU antitrust regulators are examining MSFT’s investment into OpenAI related to the EU merger rules.  (Interested parties have until March 11 to provide input and feedback related to the matter and its impact on competition before the investigation starts in earnest.)   Interestingly, China announced late Tuesday that one of its state-backed institutions has devised a way to identify users who send messages via AAPL’s AirDrop Bluetooth feature.  (It was not known what benefits China would get by announcing this crack, but the release could hurt AAPL since this feature is used globally by protesters, activists, and general iPhone users.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only two of 12 exchanges in the green.  However, by far the biggest mover in the region was Japan (+2.01%).  Malaysia (-0.80%), South Korea (-0.75%), and Australia (-0.69%) paced the losses in the region.  Meanwhile, in Europe, a similar picture is taking shape at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the green.  However, again, by far the biggest mover is Portugal (+1.80%).  The CAC (-0.15%), DAX (-0.09%), and FTSE (-0.31%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 3.998% and Oil (WTI) is up one-third of a percent to $72.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and Fed member Williams speaks at 3:15 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, KBH reports.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Core CPI, Dec. CPI, Dec. Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  On Friday, Dec. Core PPI, Dec. PPI, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, the main thrust does not start again until the end of the week.  On Thursday, INFY reports.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday the CME announced it is rolling out new longer-horizon e-mini futures for both the S&P-500 and Nasdaq-100.  The new products will begin trading on January 29 and are intended to allow traders to trade around longer-term economic cycles.  They will feature quarter-end and year-end expirations.  Elsewhere, Moody’s reported that US office space vacancies rose to a record level in Q4 as 25 million square feet of new space came online, more people continue to work from home since the pandemic, and companies downsize operations to reduce costs.  The survey found that 19.6% of office space was empty in Q4.  (The prior record was 19.3% set twice in the past.)  Meanwhile, the SEC confirmed that its official X (formerly Twitter) account had been “compromised” (not due to a hack of X systems) and then a bogus tweet announcing the approval of Bitcoin ETFs had been sent.  While the real approval is widely expected sometime this week, the news caused a brief spike and the rebuttal caused a brief plunge in Bitcoin prices.  (The SEC specifically saying it was not due to a hack, tends to imply that this was just an early release of news that will come very soon.) Finally, in societal news, the UK publication The Guardian reported that newly released data shows that US police agencies killed a record 1,232 people in 2023.  (It is worth noting the statistics have only been gathered since 2013.)  Oddly, the increase in police violence comes even as US violent crime and especially murder rates declined a whopping 13% in 2023.  The increase in police killings was driven by disproportionate increases in rural geographic areas.

In government shutdown news, Republican Senators told reporters Tuesday that a “short-term continuing resolution” will be needed to avoid a government shutdown on January 19.  Senator Thune had told reporters that a CR through sometime in March would be needed for negotiators to finish and the Senate to act on the results.  House Speaker Johnson said he (and his House GOP caucus) would have a hard time swallowing that.  However, later, Senate Majority Leader McConnell told reporters “It was obvious.”  He went on to say, “The simplest things take a week in the Senate. So, I think the House doesn’t understand how long it takes to get something through the Senate.”  McConnell continued, “We’re going to have to pass a CR,” McConnell said. “We need to prevent a government shutdown.” 

In mortgage news, loan demand spiked 10% last week as rates for 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loans (20% down) dropped from 6.81% to 6.76%.  (Closing points remained unchanged at 0.61%.)  Applications for new home purchase loans rose 6% but were still 16% lower than a year prior. At the same time, applications for refinance loans jumped 19% from the prior week and were 30% higher than a year prior. 

With that background, it looks like markets are indecisive this morning with all three major index ETFs printing candles in the premarket that are mostly wick. With that said, the QQQ did gap a bit higher and the body of those indecisive candles are white. DIA is also retestings its T-line (8ema) from below in the early session. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend (again, mostly on the back of Monday’s strong white candles). However, it is not a done deal with the move not decidedly bullish yet. The longer-term bullish daily trend lines remain broken but there is no Bearish trend established yet. So, technically we are not yet in a downtrend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now sitting in the middle of its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. After a week of seeming rotation out of those names, we saw money flood back into them Monday as a slew of new product announcements came out of the CES trade show in Las Vegas. For that matter, watch CES as Tuesday saw a slew of non-Big Dog product announcements such as a new EV line of cars from HMC. Either way those seven Big Dog to ten stocks decided to go, it will be hard for the market to do anything but follow.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
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Strong Rally

Strong Rally

The indexes enjoyed a strong rally and a big reversal in the Dow as buyers rejected the early selling move but it should be noted that volume was a bit anemic at the same time.  Big tech names surged sharply as buyers rushed in while defensive sector names also rallied hinting at a possible institutional rotation. Today we have another light day with only International Trade and a Fed speaker left on the economic calendar.  However, do have a few more notable earnings reports as a warm-up to the big bank reports beginning on Friday. Keep in mind choppy, volatile price action is likely as we wait for Thursday’s inflation data.

Overnight Asian markets finished mixed with modest gains and losses overall despite the NIKKEI stretching to a 33-year high.  European markets see modest declines across the board this morning as they cautiously await the inflation data.  U.S. futures also point to a bearish open with the uncertainty of the pending data setting the stage for a big point range-bound choppy consolidation or maybe even a whipsaw as we wait for the CPI numbers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday include AYI, ACI, AZZ, NEOG, PSMT, SGH, SNX, TLRY, and WDFC.

News & Technicals’

A safety issue with Boeing 737 Max 9 planes prompted the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to order a temporary grounding of dozens of these planes on Saturday. The FAA’s decision came after Alaska Flight 1282 experienced a midair panel blowout, which was caused by loose hardware in the engine. United Airlines and Alaska Airlines, which operate 737 Max 9 planes, conducted inspections and found similar problems in some of their planes. Boeing, the maker of the planes, said it issued guidance to airlines on how to check and fix the hardware issue.

Samsung Electronics, the world’s leading producer of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, announced on Tuesday that it expects a sharp decline in its operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2023. The company said that it anticipates an operating profit of 2.8 trillion won for the last three months of the year, which is 35% lower than the 4.31 trillion won it earned in the same period a year ago. The company attributed the drop in profit to weak demand and price competition for its DRAM chips, which are used in various consumer devices such as smartphones and computers.

Unity Software, a company that develops tools and platforms for creating and running interactive content, announced on Monday that it will cut 25% of its staff, or about 1,800 workers, as part of a reorganization plan. The company said that the layoffs are necessary to streamline its operations and focus on its core business, but it could not provide an estimate of the costs and charges associated with the reduction, which it expects to incur mostly in the first quarter of 2024. The layoffs come after a leadership change at Unity, as John Riccitiello stepped down as CEO in October and was replaced by James Whitehurst, the former CEO of Red Hat, as interim CEO.

Stocks ended the trading day with a strong rally on lower-than-average volume, after staying flat for most of the day. The S&P 500 rose 1.4%, recovering much of last week’s losses aided by a surge of buying in big tech names. Technology and growth stocks led the gains, with the Nasdaq rising 2%, while the Dow trailed with a 0.6% increase, dragged down by Boeing shares. The day was quiet in terms of news and economic data, despite the higher close. Expect the markets to be choppy and volatile as we wait for the crucial consumer price index (CPI) data out Thursday morning. Today we have another light day of economic data but a few more notable earnings to inspire the bulls or bears.  Plan your risk carefully and try to avoid over-trading with the pending inflation data and big bank earnings beginning on Friday.  Anything is possible!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Contractor Def Tightened and CES Underway

On Monday, the Bulls took a little revenge for last week.  The SPY opened a bit higher at +0.07%, DIA gapped down 0.33% (as BA weighed heavily on the Dow), and gapped up 0.29%.  However, after the opening bell, QQQ rallied sharply until 10:50 a.m. and then began a slower, 45-degree rally that lasted the rest of the day.  At the same time, the SPY steadily rallied along a 45-degree angle all day long.  DIA was the laggard as it had to overcome the terrible BA move and it took the Dow 30 minutes to reverse the selling before starting a wavier 30-degree rally that finally filled the gap by 2 p.m. and continued slowly North.  All three major index ETFs closed very near their highs of the day.  This action gave us large, white, near-Marubozu candles in the SPY and QQQ (some might call it a Trader’s Best Friend…gap up from a Doji to a Marubozu) and a large white candle with a lower wick in the DIA.  All three also crossed back above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Technology (+2.57%) far out in front leading the way higher while Energy (-1.13%) was the lone laggard in the red.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 0.59%, and QQQ gained 2.07%.  (The QQQ’s huge day came on the back of many product introductions by several QQQ members at the annual CES conventions.  Among these were MRVL (+6.99%), NVDA (+6.43%), and AMD (+5.48%).)  Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.32% to close at 15.19 and T2122 climbed the top of the mid-range (to just outside of the overbought territory) at 78.45.  10-year bond yields backed off but remain above four percent to 4.013% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.78% to close at $71.02 per barrel.  On the day, we saw the Bulls in control all day on what was slightly above-average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

The economic news on Monday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 3.00%.  This continued a steady decline since July 2022.  The December value was 3.40%.  So, the decline was significant.  Then later, Consumer Credit (requiring installments) for November was reported much higher than predicted at $23.75 billion (versus a forecast of $9.00 billion and October’s perhaps artificially low $5.78 billion).  On the Fed side, Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke Monday afternoon.  Bostic said that as long as inflation remains above 2%, his bias is for monetary policy to remain tight.  However, he also said overall risks in the economy have become balanced between the risk of inflation and the risk of slower economic growth.   Bostic went on to say he does anticipate rate cuts later this year, but said “I don’t think that’s where we are today.”  (Seeming to push back against the idea of a March rate cut.)  In the end, he said he was focused on his discussions with business leaders, and as of now, he is not hearing them say they are planning layoffs (which he implied would be the tipping point where risk was more on the economic slowdown side than the inflation side).  Later, Fed Governor Bowman (traditionally very hawkish) retreated from her recent stances, telling a Bankers Assn. event that the current Fed rate policy appears to be “sufficiently restrictive.”  Bowman said, “My view has evolved to consider the possibility that the rate of inflation could decline further with the policy rate held at the current level for some time.”  She continued “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2 percent goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive.”

After the close, JEF missed on revenue while beating on earnings. JEF cited a Q4 lull in merger and acquisition deals as the reason for its revenue miss.

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In stock news, BAC announced Monday that it will be taking a $1.6 billion charge in Q4 related to the bank no longer being able to use Bloomberg’s interest rate benchmark.  (Apparently, the Bloomberg LIBOR index which is being discontinued was the basis for large commercial loan interest rate calculations.  Although it is unclear why this would cost the bank so much money if the loans had a different interest rate basis.)  Later, MRK announced it would buy cancer drug developer HARP for $680 million ($23/share or 118% premium on Friday’s close).  At the same time, BCS announced it would cut 5,000 jobs globally as the bank undergoes an efficiency drive.  Later, JNJ announced it would acquire AMAM for $2 billion ($28/share or a 106% premium on Friday’s close).  Elsewhere, NVDA, AMD, and many other tech names announced a slew of new products at the CES trade show. Many of them squeezed “AI” into the announcements one way or another, but NVDA and AMD had legitimate AI product launches. (NVDA touting a “not quite high-end” AI chip to skirt US bans on sales to China and AMD touting AI capabilities in new consumer CPUs as well as even mid-tier graphics cards.) For its part, AAPL announced its new VR headset will go on sale starting Feb. 2.  (It is not expected to have much in the way of sales with a staggering $3,499 price tag.)  Meanwhile, apparel retailers LULU, ANF, CROX, and AEO all raised their Q4 guidance on Monday signaling a stronger-than-expected holiday shopping season.  At the same time, ZEAL announced it had secured $214 million in funding through private placement on Monday.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced its cars will begin conversing with drivers via ChatGPT by the middle of 2024.  (VLKAF partnered with CRNC on this technology.)  At the same time, in a regulatory filing, videogame maker U said it was laying off 1,800 workers between now and the end of March.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, BRKB reached an agreement with the Haslam Family (former owners of Pilot Travel Centers aka Flying J Fuel stations) in the dispute over the accounting for the value of the remaining 20% owned by the Haslam family.  As a result, a Delaware federal court officially ended the lawsuit which had been scheduled to start Monday.  At the same time, Reuters reported that JNJ had reached a tentative agreement to pay $700 million to more than 40 states for having wrongfully marketed its talc-based baby products.  The agreement avoids stating any link between the talc and various cancers.  Later, the US Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal by XOM (and other petroleum interests) of an Appeals Court ruling that the company had engaged in decades of deceptive marketing and other tactics aimed at undermining climate science and government efforts to reduce the impacts of fossil fuels.  This throws the case back to the MN state court where XOM had used federal appeals to block the case.  Elsewhere, KKR said it intends to notify EU antitrust regulators of its plan to buyout Telecom Italia.  KKR said the notification will be made by the end of January.  Later, NFLX defeated a federal shareholder lawsuit that alleged the company had hidden the extent to which “account sharing” had been hurting company growth.  The ruling said there was no evidence the company was aware of the extent of the problem during the period the plaintiffs had claimed.  At the same time, the US Supreme Court also rejected an appeal by BTI and other tobacco makers seeking to block a CA state ban on flavored tobacco products.  The ruling said the state law did not conflict with federal regulations on the matter. Finally, early Tuesday the Dept. of Labor issued a final rule that will curb the use of contract workers (not treated as employees and responsible for their own benefits and taxes). The move will have major implications across much of the economy from trucking to automaking, to UBER and LYFT. This is the exact opposite of the previous administration rules that made it easy for companies to classify workers as contractors and save up to 30% per worker according to multiple studies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Japan (+1.16%) and Australia (+0.93%) paced the gainers while South Korea (-0.26%) and Thailand (-0.25%) led the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.50%), DAX (-0.54%), and FTSE (-0.10%) lead the region on volume as always while Athens (+0.88%) leads three smaller exchanges in the green in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap-down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.46% open, the SPY is implying a -0.47% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.65% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.046% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.32% to $72.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Nov. Imports, Nov. Exports, and Nov. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to AYI, ACI, MSM, and SNX before the open.  Then, after the close, PSMT and WDFC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Williams speaks.  Then Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Core CPI, Dec. CPI, Dec. Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  On Friday, Dec. Core PPI, Dec. PPI, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, the main thrust does not start again until the end of the week.  On Wednesday, we hear from KBH.  On Thursday, INFY reports.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday the issuers of Bitcoin spot-price ETFs started a price war on fees.  All the potential ETFs announced their fees at significantly below the average for ETF management fees.  (The average ETF charges 0.54% with the proposed Bitcoin ETFs coming in around 0.25%.)  One even lowered its fees from 0.80% to 0.25% during the day.  BLK remains on the high end, saying it will charge 0.30%.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that China has lifted the ban on net selling by mutual fund managers.  (The previous ruling stated the managers had to buy more shares than they sold each day, artificially propping up Chinese stocks.)  Meanwhile, the inspections of 737 MAX jets ordered by the FAA following Sunday’s ALK mid-air loss of part of the fuselage and explosive decompression has now found many jets with loose bolts on their bodies.  This is another setback for BA and SPR (maker of BA fuselages).  However, no determination has been made yet on whether this is a design or manufacturing issue. BA was down more than 8% Monday while SPR was down more than 11%. 

In Oil news, Saudi Arabia’s unexpected price slashing Monday (cutting their price to $2 below the regional benchmark price) led to a large ripple-effect drop in US Oil (WTI) prices.  As a result, oil majors like XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, MRO, etc. saw a greater than one percent drop in share prices.  Elsewhere, after the close, a US federal judge granted a large group of Venezuela’s creditors the right to participate in the proceeds of the coming auction of Citgo Petroleum (Venezuelan-owned).  OI and HII were among the companies approved to participate.  (COP reached a separate settlement with Venezuela that precludes their participation.)

So far this morning, AYI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, MSM missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (SNX and ACI report closer to the opening bell.) 

With that background, it looks like the Bears are trying to mount a comeback this morning before the Bulls can get a second day of momentum started. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket lower with SPY and DIA putting in indecisive, Spinning Top-type candles. However, the QQQ opened lower and continued, now showing a larger, black-bodied candle that is the only one of the three retesting its T-line (8ema) at this point. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend (mostly on the back of Monday’s strong white candles). However, it is not a done deal with the move not decidedly bullish yet. The longer-term bullish daily trend lines remain broken but there is no Bearish trend established yet. So, technically we are not yet in a downtrend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is just outside of its over-bought range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it, but it is the Bears that have the most slack to work with right now. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. After a week of seeming rotation out of those names, we saw money flood back into them Monday as a slew of new product announcements came out of the CES trade show in Las Vegas. Either way those seven to ten stocks go, it will be hard for the market to do anything but follow given their massive daily volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

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TC2000 Discount

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