A Bearish Engulf At Resistance

June 26, 2018 by Rick Saddler

A Bearish Engulf At Resistance

It’s never good when you get a Bearish Engulf at resistance. Yesterday’s price action in DO was controlled by the sellers when they realized the buyers didn’t have the chops to step out into the battlefield. So the sellers took control and closed price below the 50-SMA. Weakness below $18.95 may need to test the $17.40 – $16.70 areas. Be very cautious the next few days as the buyers and sellers battle for the blue ribbon, don’t be a casualty.

DO Trade Plan Right Here

HRC Monthly Trading Results Right Here

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SPY Is Unhappy

Looking at my Red White and Blue chart the SPY has turned bearish in the hourly, 2-hour and 4-hour charts. The daily is very close, whether or not you like the tariff battle going on it is causing the market to be unhappy. An unhappy market leads to chop and the sellers taking the lead. The 200-SMA area may offer support and a relief rally for the bulls, but we must see the right conditions before that can happen.

VXX – VXX got pretty darn hot yesterday! The VXX chart is suggesting they buyers are not happy when buyers are not happy the sellers like to party.

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Testimonial

This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. or Rick Saddler is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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An Ugly Day

June 26, 2018 by Doug Campbell

An Ugly Day

Yesterday was clearly an ugly day for the market with many stocks suffering there biggest selloff this year. At the end of the day, even the strongest of the indexes suffered technical damage that will likely take weeks if not months to repair. With trade tensions still growing we can’t rule out additional shock waves occurring so trade with caution and discipline.

Although an ugly day there was a silver lining in a few sectors as traders rotate toward safety. Consumer defensive, consumer staples, utilities and high dividend paying stocks are showing some positive signs, but you will have to choose carefully. Domestic companies with less exposure to tariffs vs. international companies that could experience more shock waves as trade tensions continue to grow.

On the Calendar

There are two potential market-moving reports on Tuesday’s Economic Calendar. The first is the Case-Shiller at 9:00 AM Eastern which consensus expects a gain of 0.5 percent with the year-on-year number holding 6.8 percent. Secondly, the 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence expects a steady strength of 128.1 in May according to consensus. Events not expected to move the market included Redbook @ 8:55 AM, Richmond Fed Mfg. Index & State Street Investor Confidence @ 10:00 AM, two Bond Auctions & two Fed Speakers.

The Earnings Calendar shows 13 companies reporting results today with FDS and LEN before the bell. After the bell, we will hear from JMBA and SONC.

Action Plan

After a rough day selling with all four major indexes suffering technical damage, caution an restraint should be considered. You might be thinking now is the time to jump in and pick up some deals and you might be right. However, don’t anticipate a wait for good signals of buyers stepping in before rushing into trades. Yesterday could have been an overreaction by the market, but keep in mind the uncertainty surrounding trade is far from over and the next shock wave may only be a news report away. Having broken uptrends any rally back up should be watched closely for the possibility of failure at or near price resistance levels.

There seems to be a rotation to the defensive sector, consumer staples sector, and high dividend paying stocks such as utilities as investors look for a little safety. Also, keep an eye on domestic companies as they may be less impacted by tariffs. Currently, the Dow futures are pointing to a flat to slightly bearish open. A resting day with choppy price action would not be out of the question. Better days will eventually return, but there could be a lot of very challenging days yet to come. Third quarter earnings are just 2 or 3 weeks away, but until then its likely trade war jitters will continue to be the driving force of the market.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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AVEO Setup & Trade Plan

June 25, 2018 by Ed Carter

Today’s Featured Trade Idea is AVEO.

You can read more about this trade in Rick’s blog post here. For now, here is my analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

AVEO has formed a Rounded Bottom Breakout pattern and printed a Bullish Engulfing signal on Friday. I will look for an Entry on the breakout with a Stop set below the two Support Levels shown. The Targets used were defined as Support/Resistance levels using the Weekly Chart. Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20. As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The AVEO Trade Setup – As of 6-22-18

The AVEO Trade Plan

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. As we see above, Trader Vision shows you that the stock only needs to move 9.39% to make the Goal for the trade (not even to the first Target), while the anticipated second Target price would generate a 14.69% overall gain. We also see that the Risk is low and the potential Reward good. Knowing the Risk, Reward and how far a stock must move to reach our goal…before a trade…really takes the pressure off. No guesswork. No surprises. No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/qzTch8J0XPA” new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover. It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not. It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Trade Policy Uncertainty

June 25, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Trade Policy Uncertainty

Facing another significant overnight gap down due to trade policy uncertainty its time to ask yourself a question. Do you feel like your trading the market or fighting the market? Daily triple-digit Dow gaps have significantly increased trading risks for most swing and position traders. When good entry signals continue to reverse back and forth overnight depending on the threat, tweet or news report the swing trader has little to no edge.

Sure you can pridefully continue to fight but at what cost? How much are your willing to risk trying to be right? As the trade policy uncertainty continues big gaps, reversals and whipsaws will also likely continue. If you feel like, you’re going into battle blindfolded without a weapon day after day; who’s fault is it when your capital disappears? There will be better days ahead if you have the patience and discipline to wait for them.

On the Calendar

A busy week on the Economic Calendar gets going with the first market-moving report at 10:00 AM Eastern with New Home Sales. New Home Sales according to consensus will continue its strong uptrend in sales with a slight increase to a 665,000 annualized rate. We have Chicago Fed Activity Index @ 8:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey and three bond events on the calendar today but they are unlikely to move the overall market.

We have only 12 companies reporting earnings today with CCL as one of the most noteworthy coming before the bell.

Action Plan

It was nice to see a little relief from the selling with the gap up open on Friday, but sadly the Bulls had no energy to follow-through after the gap. With the threat of new trade war measures, the Futures are once again pointing to another triple point Dow gap down. Currently, that gap could be as much as of 200 giving up all of Friday’s gains in one fell swoop. The SPY and the QQQ look as if they could also give up important support levels at the open today.

The fact remains that while the US and China continue to battle trade policy publicly, the market will continue to react erratically. Every trader has a decision to make. Do I continue to put capital at risk knowing that significant overnight gaps are likely to continue or do I stand aside waiting for the uncertainty to pass? Standing aside is a hard thing to do for most traders but if you find that losses are mounting trying to fight the market will only make the situation worse. I started cutting back on my trading last week and will continue to do so until price action improves.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Price Action Above $2.40

June 25, 2018 by Rick Saddler

Price Action Above $2.40

Price action above $2.40 moves AVEO from a bullish constructed bottom to a possible 15%-20% relief rally. AVEO has entered the (RBB) Rounded Bottom Breakout area and the price action and volume Friday suggest the buyers are taking a look. If the market and conditions are right, we may take a trade with price action over $2.40 with the target direction toward the Dotted Deuce and the 200-SMA. Do you have more questions? Want to know how we have grown 240% in 6 months? Join us in the trading room, ask and we will share.

AVEO Trade Plan Right Here

HRC Monthly Trading Results Right Here

HRC Current Trading Results January 1, 2018, to June 19, 2018, • Plus 240% or $12,085 profit.

Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual

SPY Test The 50-SMA?

The SPY is starting to look as if it wants to test the 50-SMA. The past eight trading candles have influenced by the sellers more than the buyers, and with the futures being down nearly 200 points this morning I suspect today will be day nine. Friday close at $274.74 and this morning’s pre-market futures are still within the May support level. Looking at the SPY weekly chart, you can see the four-bar support area. If the buyers don’t take advantage of the 50-SMA (Daily Chart), the sellers may have an opportunity to put a game together.

VXX – Overall I do not see the panic fear in the VXX chart, but I am starting to see the interest. Over $38.25 the VXX chart would be pretty darn hot

Rick’s Trade-Ideas Reserved for Members

Focus Trading Education

To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.

Testimonial

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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Friday Performance Update 6-22-18

June 21, 2018 by Ed Carter

As you know, Hit and Run Candlesticks does not issue Featured Trade Ideas on Fridays. That said, 2 of our trades this week did not execute. Nothing on either of those charts has changed fundamentally. So, if either EPC or SDOW trigger an Entry Friday, we will enter those trades as originally planned.

Instead of planning a new trade, we’ll use Friday’s to check the performance of our trades to date, check on our open trades and adjust and positions as needed.

Bear in mind that this update covers the period up through 6-21-18 (only 3 weeks of trade ideas).

As you Thursday was a rough day for the market. For our account, we were stopped out of one trade (GTN) but stopped out at a profit. So, no real damage was done. By using Trader Vision 20/20 to plan and manage our trade risk, we’ve still put $over $2300 in profit away in 3 weeks…doing only one trade per day, taking Friday’s off and having a couple trades not execute. Not too bad in my book.

If you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video where I review all closed and Open positions, as well as the 2 unexecuted positions that we may open Friday depending on the market. I discuss each trade and why I adjust my positions using Trader Vision 20/20 software.

Rick is out Friday, but you are welcome to join me in the trading room at 9:10am Eastern as I fill in today.

Featured Trade Idea Plan Performance

(As of 6-21-18 Close)

+$2,354.45 over 3 weeks

$784.82/week profit -or-

almost 0.8%/week profit on the Account

Blog Account Trade Log as of 6-21-18 Close

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. All of your trades are logged, in incredible detail. This will allow you to analyze patterns in your trading, identifying problems and improving your performance. You’ll also be able to get back inside your own head even if you revisit the trade years later. Having all this information give you the ability to keep improving and reducing the emotional roller coaster that the amateurs face every day!

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/sfGCy_yJoAQ” new_window=”Y”]Trade Review Video[/button_2]

If you’re interested in putting the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you, click below.

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EPC Setup and Trade Plan

June 21, 2018 by Ed Carter

Today’s Featured Trade Idea is EPC.

Normally, you can read more about this trade, see Rick’s blog post here. However, Rick is out of the office on a family emergency. Nonetheless, members can listen to a detailed analysis of the market in the trading room at 9:10am Eastern.

For now, here is my analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

EPC has been forming a bottom for 3 months. It is now in both a Rounded Bottom Breakout and Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. Now it has formed a Pullback Opportunity (J-hook in progress) and printed a Hammer on Wednesday. I will look for an Entry on the breakout with a Stop set below the Resistance Level broken to get there. The Targets used were defined as Support/Resistance levels using the Weekly Chart. Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20. As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The EPC Trade Setup – As of 6-20-18

The EPC Trade Plan

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. As we see above, Trader Vision shows you that the stock only needs to move 6.4% to make the Goal for the trade, while the anticipated second Target price would generate a 10.85% overall gain. We also see that the Risk is low and the potential Reward decent. Knowing the Risk, Reward and how far a stock must move to reach our goal…before a trade…really takes the pressure off. No guesswork. No surprises. No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/Linxe8jJ-xQ” new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

If you’re interested in putting the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you, click below.

[button_2 color=”orange” align=”center” href=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/product/trader-vision-20-20-monthly-subscription2/” new_window=”Y”]TV20/20 Software[/button_2]

Testimonial

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Little to no fear.

June 21, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Little to no fear.

As the weekend approaches with still unresolved trade war jitters, the VIX continues to indicate little to no fear of the swirling uncertainty. New record highs in two indexes while the Dow looks to open below its 50-day average this morning adds additional complexity to the is already challenging the market. With the market capable of taking a quick turn south as it did on Tuesday, I have wonder if the market is becoming weary of all the political noise and perhaps becoming somewhat complacent.

Consider your overall risk as we move toward the weekend and remember big gaps are possible in both directions. I know I run the risk of missing out on a big rally if there happens to be a resolution to trade negotiations over the weekend but I will also be able to sleep better if I reduce my exposure to risk ahead of the weekend. I’m not saying I’m right, but for now, that’s the plan I’m sticking to it.

On the Calendar

We kick off the Thursday Economic Calendar today with the weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM Eastern. Consensus expects claims to tick higher to 220,000 but still near historic lows as strong labor demand continues. Also at 8:30 the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey expects a decline to 28.0 vs. the 45-year high in new orders on the May report of 34.4. We have a Fed Speaker & FHFA House Price index @ 9:00, Consumer Confort Index @ 9:45, Nat. Gas Report @ 10:00, 7-Bond Events at 11:00, Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply @ 4:30 none of which are expected to move the market.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 19 companies fessing up to their quarterly results today. Among them are KR and DRI before the bell with RHT reporting after the close today.

Action Plan

The pop and drop in the DIA yesterday left index teetering on its 50-day moving average while the QQQ and IWM reached out for new record highs. The SPY closed just slightly positive holding onto a sliver of the morning gap at the close of trading. Unfortunately, the Futures turned south during the evening and currently suggest the Dow will gap down at the open below its 50-day average as trade war jitters continue to weigh on international companies. While the Dow declines, it’s interesting to note that the VIX is fell back below a 13 handle yesterday as fear seems to remain in check.

As the weekend approaches and trade tensions continue, I will become more and more cautious about adding additional risk and will more inclined to reduce risk. With big daily gaps possible and an uncertain weekend of tariff threats I know I will sleep better and enjoy my weekend more if my capital is safely resting in the account. It’s true I could miss out on a surprise market rally but entering a little late is always easier than getting out when it’s too late.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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