Market Bias
Market Bias
Is your market bias robbing you of profits? As a trading coach, I answer questions almost every day from traders that fail to see the price action clue in the chart due to bias. Perma-bulls dreaming of a Santa Clause rally, fail to see the possibility of a pullback even after a 2000 point rally in just 8-days. Perma-bears are just as negligent believing that the market has gone up so much that it has to come down. Have you ever failed to close position moving strongly against you because, darn it, you have to be right!
We all have, and that’s just one clue that bias is keeping you from success. Fighting the market is an exercise in futility! The truth is the market could care less what you think you know about technical analysis, candle patterns or indicators. Set your bias aside and take the time to study the price action of the chart. The clues are always there if your bias is not in the way clouding your view of the price action.
On the Calendar
With the majority of earnings reports completed for this quarter, the number of reports will begin to drop significantly. Today there are 119 companies reporting.
Action Plan
Selling in Asian markets overnight has translated into European market also lower across the board this morning. As a result, US Futures which held up quite well most of the night began to react very negatively early in the morning. As I write this, the Dow is indicated to gap sharply lower in response. However, a pullback after such a steep rally is not a surprise, and I expect many traders are already short in anticipation.
At the close yesterday, the VIX was beginning to respond to price support. The gap down this morning could once again bring some fear into play so plan for volatility to remain elevated. With the FOMC indicating another rate hike next month and the ongoing uncertainty of China trade negotiations, a substantial market pullback is possible. Unfortunately, due to the huge rally, finding support could mean a nasty swing lower. Let’s hope all the market needs is a restful consolidation! Stay focused on price action and as we head into the weekend, plan your risk carefully.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
SPY Closed With A Doji
SPY Closed With A Doji
Yesterday closed with a doji: note the last two candles are pushed right up against resistance; There is a high probability of profit taking today. Looking backward at yesterday’s candle you can see that the previous candles are trying to form an inverted head and shoulders, as you know it’s all about the follow through. The current price action is trapped below the 50-SMA and above the 200-SMA making the easy trade observation. The bulls need to find the energy to close us over the 50-SMA While the sellers will be trying to push his back below the 200-SMA.
****VXX – Yesterday the VXX found a little support on the 50-SMA, we may see a bounce maybe to the $34.50 area.
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Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team
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Past performance is not indicative of future returns
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.
Daily Flagpole Weekly Bullish Engulf QNST entry bullish buy box or a tradable breakout, stop below $16.75
Daily Flagpole Weekly Bullish Engulf
The daily flagpole and flag are a weekly Bullish Engulf with a high mounted Doiji or what we call a Doji Continuation pattern set up. For about the past eight months QNST has been in a slow upward base construction mode and has finally broken out. I will add QNST to the LTA-Live Trading Alerts Real Time Market Scanner for a buying alert. QNST entry bullish buy box or a tradable breakout, stop below $16.75
Membership Services
Rick’s Trading Tools
Rick uses three main trading tools and has dialed them in for max performance. Rick also freely shares his insights on what makes the tools the best and how to use them. Check them out.
- LTA – Live Trading Alerts Get your 30-Day Trail
- TC2000 Charting Get $25.00 Off
- TradeHawk Trading Platform
Featured YouTube Video What Petra has to say about us
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team
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SPY • Closes Over 200-SMA
Yesterday the SPY, on a very decisive day closed above the 200-SMA on greater volume than the past two days. We have a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulder bottom with price approaching the 50-SMA. When approaching the 50-SMA, it’s pretty normal to see a disturbance between the buyers and sellers. Listen see to what price action is suggesting, become friends with price action, maybe trading will be easier.
****VXX – Yesterday the VXX slid through the 200-SMA and closed weak, watch for a bounce.
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Past performance is not indicative of future returns
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.
QNST Setup and Trade Plan
Today’s Featured Trade Idea is QNST.
Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews this setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern. For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.
QNST made a major Bullish move on earnings 10/31 and then followed-through the next day. It has consolidated the following 3 days, bouncing off Support and the Bulls showed they are stepping back in strongly on Wed. If you squint, this J-hook pattern could even be called a Mat Hold signal.
On positive trading, I will look to Enter with a tight Stop. The Targets are defined off the Weekly chart.
Trader Vision shows us that earnings are out of the way and we have nearly 3 months to work with on this trade setup. It also shows us this chart gives us 5 Bullish and only 1 Bearish (overall market long-term bias) condition.
TV20/20 tells us this Trade Plan offers a very low Risk ($115.50) to Stop and a good Reward ($375.75) at the 2nd Target. It also told us we would achieve 2:1 Reward/Risk at the 1st Target and that we can achieve the Trade Goal between Targets #1 and #2.
Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.
Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20. As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.
The QNST Trade Setup – As of 11-7-18
The Trade Plan
Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, the risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions. Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade. It really takes the pressure off. No guesswork. No surprises. No emotional roller coaster.
To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.
[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/vsyBdRoCVGI” new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]
Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…
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Testimonial
Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover. It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not. It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G
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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
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Earnings and FOMC
Earnings and FOMC
Today is the last really big day of reports this quarter, and with the election behind us, the market is free to react to earnings and the FOMC decision. Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight, and the European markets are currently flat to mostly lower. The US Futures are only pointing to a modest gap down this morning but after such a huge rally don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking.
Although I expect volatility to remain high, we could see the price action become rather light and choppy after the morning rush as we wait for the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM Eastern. Consider the fact that the Dow has gained 2000 points in a straight-up move as you plan your risk heading into the weekend. The odds are that at some point the market will want to test support levels which are now significantly lower.
On the Calendar
On the earnings calendar, we have nearly 500 companies reporting today. The number of earnings drop off tomorrow, and there is significantly fewer next week.
Action Plan
With nearly 500 earnings reports and FOMC decision on interest rates today what could possibly go wrong? LOL Currently the US Futures are pointing to a modest gap down this morning considering the huge post-election rally. After recovering more than 2000 Dow points from the low in just eight days, it should not be a surprise if we see some profit-taking and a little market rest in the very near future. Of course, if a deal can be struck with China anytime soon, that would be a game changer.
Expect considerable volatility today as we wait for the FOMC decision and the market reacts to last really big day of earnings this quarter. I for one took advantage of the big rally taking profits to the bank. This morning I’m very light in my account and to be honest I’m currently feeling pretty comfortable with that decision. The possibility of a pullback or at a minimum is very high, but with the energy and momentum, we saw yesterday If could easily be next week before we see much selling activity. The spin out of Washington could become very intense over the next few days so plan your rick into the weekend carefully.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/5Uz0oGsfdd8″]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
11-6-18 eLearning
Define Your Risk With Options
In this video, Doug Campbell talks about how a trader can truly define the amount of risk they take by using Options.
1 hour 21 minutes
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Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks or it’s associates should be considered as financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service
