Will they or won’t they?

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Will they or won’t they?

World markets are watching and wondering, will they or won’t they cut interest rates in June or will the FOMC wait until July.  Recent strong economic numbers seemed to have lowered the odds of a June rate cut but the odds of a July cut seem to be rising.  One thing for sure is we all have to wait for there decision and forecast on Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern time. 

As we wait it would not be surprising to light and choppy consolidating price action.  With the DIA and SPY hold above their 50-day averages and the QQQ and IWM remain below the directional uncertainty of market is palpable.  Futures are pointing to a modestly bullish open ahead of today’s economic reports so be careful not to chase.  Baring some surprise news or a  presidential Tweet Storm I would expect anemic and pensive price action until the FOMC Announcement.

On the Calendar

On the Monday Earnings Calendar we have only 11 companies reporting quarterly results but none are notable very unlikely to move the market today.

Action Plan

The FOMC will be the predominant focus of the market until their rate announcement and committee forecasts on Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern.  Strong economic numbers last week seems to have lower the odds of a June rate cut but most are expecting the Fed will make its move in July.  I think the bigger question is will the FOMC forecast suggest one, two or even more possible rate cuts this year?  Other questions to ponder, What if there is a US/China trade deal at the G20 meeting?  If so, will there be any need for the FOMC to cut rates? 

With so many big questions it would not be out of the question to see pensive price action as the world waits for the FOMC decision.  US futures currently point to a modestly bullish open ahead of the 8:30 AM Eastern Empire State Mfg. Survey and Housing Market Index report later this morning.  Unless we have some big breaking news or a Tweet Storm expect a relatively quiet market until Wednesday afternoon.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Focus the Next Two Days

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💲 Traders focus will likely be on the Fed meeting starting Tuesday. AIG, A trade we have been holding setting up nicely with a pullback in the T-Line bands. With the Thursday Bullish Engulf and the Doji on Friday, we are ready. Trading requires a level of trading education that most people just wanting a stock pick and to follow, likely does not have that level of education in trading. Having the right education, tools, and an understanding of Candlesticks signals make all the difference in the world. The LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner and the Hit and Run family is the best of the best. All buys and closes announced in HRC Live Trading Room, be sure to tune in starting at 9:10 Eastern when I’ll review the markets, trade ideas.

I would suspect the next day and a half will be much like the last week, choppy and boring. I think a large number of traders are on the sidelines waiting to hear the Fed attitude on a rate cut/hike in June, July, or later.  The SPY still has a Shooting Star and a Bearish Engulf staring at us, but the bulls have done a great job in containing any sell-off. The sideways move the last three days has allowed the T-Line to catch up to the price; this could be very helpful for the bullish scenario. The bearish scenario is easy; we close below the T-Line we will look for lower support. The VXX is still trading under the T-Line (No Fear) and still under the lowest T-Line band, (still no Fear). If the VXX can get over $28.30, we could see the (Fear).

👉 Friday, June 14, we didn’t do much of anything with trading, we flew to Florida and enjoyed some beach time for Fathers, stay tuned. A relaxing traders life.

🎯 SFIX is one for the watchlist;  The lower high followed by the gap and with the bulls keeping the sellers at bay is putting SFIX in a bullish position to reach higher. Simple rules and strategies are what we use, and it works.

🍰 The LTA Alert Scanner and TC2000 are my tools of choice because they work!. Rick and the HRC Members kick off the trading room starting at 9:10 Eastern when we review the markets, trade ideas, and PFE. ✅✅ Other charts we plan to cover is: SFIX, URBN, SKK, FB, VAG, SHOP, AAPL, TTD, YY

✅ A Traders Edge In All Markets

The LTA Scanner can filter out charts that are trending, up or down and alert on charts that have Candlestick signals and patterns, western patterns and when indicators, such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI or Bollinger Bands have crossed or reaches the desired level. Hey, check out the NEW BULL PERFECT TREND ALERT. The right tools for the job.

Acton Plan

  1. ✅ Be patient. Know what you want and be patient
  2. ✅ Always plane your trade out
  3. Use our base hit strategy, sell into strength
  4. Buy close to your stop and support
  5. USE the LTA Trade Alert Scanner to find the winners

We use 2 of The Worlds Best Trading Tools, TC2000 for charting, LTA-Live Trading Alerts for real-time price action, candle and candle patterns, and western patterns. The right tools for the right job.👍

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Another overnight Gap.

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Another overnight Gap

Another day another overnight gap as the market reacts to a chemical tanker fire in the Gulf of Oman creating a surge in oil prices.  The cause of the fire is still unknown but has sparked fears of an attack after apparent sabotage of another tanker just a few weeks ago.  US futures are pointing to a gap up open reversing the modest selling yesterday and holding the key psychological 50-day moving averages of both the DIA and SPY.

The QQQ is also getting a lift this morning an looks as if it will once again challenge its 50-day average resistance.  Short traders expecting more of a pullback after the sharp rise could find themselves in a short squeeze.  Expect price volatility to remain high challenging even the most experienced traders with the hypersensitivity to US/China trade rhetoric.

On the Calendar

calendar

On the Earnings Calendar we have the biggest day of the week with 28 companies reporting.  However, the only notable report is DLTH.

Action Plan

Oil prices are surging this morning after a tanker incident in the Gulf of Oman.  The cause of the fire remains unclear, but is raising fears of an attack just weeks after an apparent sabotage of another tanker.   Futures traded modestly lower as Asian market closed mostly lower overnight but rallied significantly with the surge in oil prices. 

As I write this Dow futures point to a gap up open of more than 75 points reversing yesterday’s modest selling and holding the DIA and SPY above their 50-day averages.  The QQQ looks to challenge its 50-day average as resistance at the open.  Could this create another pop and drop day?  Yes, but it could also create just enough catalyst to squeeze short traders out pushing the indexes higher. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bearish Engulfing Candle Patterns

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Bearish Engulfing Candle Patterns

The bearish engulfing candle patterns left behind on the DIA, SPY and IWM yesterday suggest the wild bullish rally may have run out energy but I would not expect the bulls to give easily.  Logic alone would suggest after such an energetic rally that little rest or pullback is likely.  However, if the bulls can defend the reclaimed 50-day morning averages as support a case for attacking all-time market highs is possible.

Unfortunately tough talk between US/China is not suggesting that a trade deal between the countries is unlikely at the G20 meeting seems to have given the bulls a little pause this morning.  Asian markets closed lower as their consumer prices hit a 15 month high and food prices spiked 7.7% in the May report.  European markets are also seeing some bearishness this morning with all indexes pointing modestly lower.  As the bulls and bears battle for control expect higher price volatility and sensitivity to trade news.

On the Calendar

calendar

On the Wednesday Earnings Calendar we have just 15 companies stepping up to the plate.  Notable reports include LULU & TLRD.

Action Plan

Tough talk suggesting that a US/China trade deal is very unlikely at the G20 seems to have dampened the bullishness we have seen in the last week of price action.  During the night China released consumer inflation numbers showing a 15 month high and food prices spiking 7.7% in May.  Asian markets closed lower across the board overnight as a result.  European markets are also seeing red this morning across their major indexes. 

As I write this US futures are modestly lower bouncing off the overnight lows but the CPI number at 8:30 AM Eastern has the potential to move the market before the open today.  The DIA, SPY and IWM all left behind bearish engulfing patterns yesterday suggesting a lower print but I would not expect the bulls to give up control easily.  Expect high price volatility and the possibility of quick intraday reversals as they duke it out.  We should be just fine if the bulls defend the reclaimed 50-day moving averages as support but if these key psychological levels fail the bears could be emboldened.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

How About Those St Louis Blues

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💲 Congratulations – St. Louis Blues “Stanley Cup Winners!” No trades were closed yesterday 6/12/19.  We did PFE Sept. $41.00 Calls and explained in the trading room in detail why we did. Having the right tools and an understanding of Candlesticks signals make all the difference in the world. The LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner and the Hit and Run family is the best of the best. All buys and closes announced in HRC Live Trading Room, be sure to tune in starting at 9:10 Eastern when I’ll review the markets, trade ideas.

It looks as if the futures are a little bullish this morning and may try to challenge the @289.25 line or the top of the Doji yesterday. A positive close over $289.25 could put a spark in one of the bull’s eyes; the other eye will be on that Bearish Engulf that will want to defend the current top.  Bullish Follow-though at the close will be important to be overly long. Fed talk coming up will be an important factor in price action, trading until then could be a little erratic and sloppy. The VXX is still under the T-Line (No Fear) and still under the lowest T-Line Channel we use (still no Fear). If the VXX can get over $28.30, we could see the (Fear).

👉 Yesterday Tuesday, June 12/19, we did not close any trades, but we did buy PFE, PFE Sept. $41.00 Calls and explained in the trading room in detail why we did.

🎯 PFE is one for the watchlist; We did buy it yesterday as it was posting a T-Line Band Alert and a Piercing Candle on the LTA Alert Scanner. (see chart below) An Inside day today and a qualified chart pattern above $43.25. 🍰 The LTA Alert Scanner and 🍰 TC2000 are my tools of choice because they work!. Rick and the HRC Members kick off the trading room starting at 9:10 Eastern when we review the markets, trade ideas, and PFE. Other charts we plan to cover is: TNDN, SNAP, SHOP, PFE, MNST and BABA

✅ A Traders Edge In All Markets

The LTA Scanner can filter out charts that are trending, up or down and alert on charts that have Candlestick signals and patterns, western patterns and when indicators, such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI or Bollinger Bands have crossed or reaches the desired level. Hey, check out the NEW BULL PERFECT TREND ALERT. The right tools for the job.

Acton Plan

  1. ✅ Be patient. Know what you want and be patient
  2. ✅ Always plane your trade out
  3. Use our base hit strategy, sell into strength
  4. Buy close to your stop and support
  5. USE the LTA Trade Alert Scanner to find the winners

We use 2 of The Worlds Best Trading Tools, TC2000 for charting, LTA-Live Trading Alerts for real-time price action, candle and candle patterns, and western patterns. The right tools for the right job.👍

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Who would have guessed?

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Who would have guessed

Is the move irrational behavior?  Goldman Sachs has warned that it is and the conspiracy theorists come out of the woodwork proclaiming a rigged market.  The fact is the market wants to go up for the time being.  Fight it and you’re likely to lose because a market can remain irrational much longer than we as retail traders can stay liquid!  Follow the price action and avoid predicting.  Could today bring in the sellers?  Yes, but it could also inspire the bulls to keep pushing higher.  Relax, focus on price and it will lead the way.

Who would have guessed the hope of a federal funds rate cut from 2.5 percent to 2.25 percent would have the power to reverse market sentiment lifting the Dow more than 1250 points in just 5-days of trading.  This morning with fresh presidential tariff threats making headlines the US futures point to yet another gap triple point gap up.  

On the Calendar

calendar

We have just 19 companies fessing up to their quarterly results today.  Notable reports include Play & HRB.

Action Plan

The power of the assumed future interest rate cut continues to propel the bulls higher even as signs of a weakening economy emerge in the US and continued threats of tariff increases from the Whitehouse.  The biggest part of yesterdays move occurred in the overnight gap and according to the futures we can expect yet another gap up of more than 100 Dow points. 

In the past I would try to figure out such price movements that seem to be completely irrational.  I would attempt to countertrend trade these relentless moves only get run over by market momentum.  Here are the simple facts.  The bulls are currently in control and they currently believe the market should be valued higher!  Personally I don’t believe that is right but what I think or feel has no bearing on what is occurring.  Trade the chart as it is not as you think it should be because the market doesn’t care what you think.  Could this turn out to be an irrational rally?  Yes, it could but it could also just keep going up.  Focus on price action and it will lead the way.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

CRON Up 32.7%

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💲 Thank you for reading our blog! Yesterday I posted about CRON and that we were stalking CRON for a trade. We bought CRON soon after the open and when the market closed our 😎 CRON trade was up 32.7%. 👀 The LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner and the Hit and Run family is the best of the best. All buys and closes announced in HRC Live Trading Room, be sure to tune in starting at 9:10 Eastern when I’ll review the markets, trade ideas.

👀 The SPY closed another 1.32% and above the 50-SMA, the 5th day for higher lows and higher highs. In a yesterdays blog post I had written “the close is what counts” and over $289.20 would be amazing, well the high was over $289.20, but the close was below and yesterday’s candle was a Shooting Star, A Shooting Star at resistance and after being up five days in a row.  Could the Shouting Star be a warning sign for a little profit taking within a day or two? And let’s think about the 50-SMA, the price has closed and rallied above the 50-SMA without a test as of yet. The only thing I can say is “don’t run with scissors” The VXX is hanging out near a support line, but the price did not close like there was much fear, perhaps the fear comes in a day or two.

👉 CRON popped for us closing up 32.7% in the first day. We will manage the trade based on our rules and what we teach in the trading room.👇

🎯 CZR is another chart we are stalking this week on our watchlist; The weekly chart has constructed a bottom followed by a Bullish Engulf and follow-through over $9.65 with a qualified chart pattern we could be tempted. CZR alerted yesterday on the

#1 Tool in my toolbox “The LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner? Members are sure to be in the trading room about 9:10 Eastern when I review the markets, trade ideas, and CZR. WYNN, KMX, QCOM, ARCC, AIG, ROKU, SMAR are also on our list.

✅ A Traders Edge In All Markets

The LTA Scanner can filter out charts that are trending, up or down and alert on charts that have Candlestick signals and patterns, western patterns and when indicators, such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI or Bollinger Bands have crossed or reaches the desired level. Hey, check out the NEW BULL PERFECT TREND ALERT. The right tools for the job.

Acton Plan

  1. ✅ Trade smart and think about price action
  2. Use our base hit strategy, sell into strength
  3. Buy close to your stop and support
  4. USE the LTA Trade Alert Scanner to find the winners

We use 2 of The Worlds Best Trading Tools, TC2000 for charting, LTA-Live Trading Alerts for real-time price action, candle and candle patterns, and western patterns. The right tools for the right job.👍

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Massive reversal of sentiment.

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Massive reversal

What a massive reversal of market sentiment as the bulls find even more energy to extend this incredible relief rally.  Is this irrational exuberance? Perhaps, but it would be very unwise to try and fight it or predict when it will be over.  Remember the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain liquid if you try to fight the bull. 

Asian markets closed higher on better than expected trade surplus numbers.  European markets are bullish but subdued ahead of UK economic data this morning.  US Futures point to more than a 100 point Dow gap after avoiding tariff increases with Mexico and news of a huge merger between United Technologies and Raytheon creating the 2nd largest defense company in the world.  If your long this morning remember gap are gifts taking profits or scaling.  Never allow greed to get in the way of taking a profit.  If you miss this rally then for goodness sake don’t chase it this late in the move with the fear of missing out.  Stay disciplined and exercise patience waiting for the next entry.

On the Calendar

calendar

On the Earnings Calendar we have about 30 companies reporting their quarterly results today with none that are particularly notable unless you happen to own one of them.  Make sure always to check earnings dates a part of your market preparation.

Action Plan

A deal with Mexico to avert tariffs, a larger than expected China trade surplus and a merger or United Technologies and Raytheon continue to inspire the bulls higher this morning.  US futures are suggesting more than a 100 point gap in an already very extended relief rally even as the president expresses the willingness to add 300 billion in Chinese tariffs.  Is this over-exuberance and a bit nonsensical?  Maybe, but as a retail trader it’s unwise to fight the bull or try to predict its conclusion because they can run right over you.

While I feel this relief rally is very extended and this mornings gap has the potential to end as a pop an drop I must stay focused on the price action trading what is not what I think it should be.  As Jessie Livermore once said, “The Market is never wrong but opinions often are”.  Stay disciplined to your rules taking profits or scaling out not allowing greed to interfere with taking profits.  Remember gaps are gifts!  If you have missed this rally then for goodness sake don’t chase it with the fear of missing out.  Be patient and wait for the next entry based on good price action and analysis rather than emotion.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Profits On MCD

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💲 Another great day this past Friday closed out the last ½ of MCD for a 50.9% base hit or $410.00. Knowing how to make sense of a chart, the LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner and the Hit and Run family is the best of the best. All buys and closes announced in HRC Live Trading Room, be sure to tune in starting at 9:10 Eastern when I’ll review the markets, trade ideas.

👀 The Bull did it’s a thing again on Friday, gapping and closing above the 50-SMA followed by four higher closes (AMAZING). We have added a resistance line because of the multiple touches between the buys and sellers at $289.20. There is no question the 👈Bulls have had a great run, and we may even see more of it today, the close is what will count. Over the 50-SMA was major and the bull deserves a rest but not required. A close over $289.20 would be another amazing day, and unfortunately, the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sickness will hit many swing traders, let’s not forget the 3-day rule, plan your trades and wait for the trap to work. Price in the VXX 15-Min chart is still trading below the T-Line Red Dots, and the FNGU 15-Min chart is trading above the T-Line Green Dots. At Friday’s close.

👉Bought MCD on June 4th, July 19 $125.00 Calls. Closed on June 7, for a 💲 50% profit. 😎 I’ll take a Big Mac, Fries, and a Coke, please.

🎯 CRON is one we are stalking this week on our watchlist; If you look at a 3-day chart, you can see the Double Bottom and Bullish Engulf. We are bullish on CRON over $16.00 with a qualified chart pattern. CRON alerted a couple of times last week on the #1 Tool in my toolbox “The LTA Live Trading Alert Scanner? Members are sure to be in the trading room about 9:10 Eastern when I review the markets, trade ideas, and CRON.

Download TC2000 and trade t the T-Line T-Bands, Red/Green Trendicator

A Traders Edge In All Markets

The LTA Scanner can filter out charts that are trending, up or down and alert on charts that have Candlestick signals and patterns, western patterns and when indicators, such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI or Bollinger Bands have crossed or reaches the desired level. Hey, check out the NEW BULL PERFECT TREND ALERT. The right tools for the job.

Acton Plan

  1. Don’t fall into the (FOMO) trap: The Fear of Missing Out
  2. Use our base hit strategy, sell into strength
  3. Buy close to your stop and support
  4. USE the LTA Trade Alert Scanner to find the winners

We use 2 of The Worlds Best Trading Tools, TC2000 for charting, LTA-Live Trading Alerts for real-time price action, candle and candle patterns, and western patterns. The right tools for the right job.👍

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Light at the end of the tunnel?

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Light at the end of the tunnel

There may be some light at the end of the tunnel this morning with news Mexico has made concessions that could avert the 5% tariff increase on Monday.  That would be a welcomed relief and the US futures point to a bullish open ahead of the Employment Situation report.  Asian market closed mixed overnight but European indexes are green across the board this morning. 

With possible interest rate cuts in the signaled by the Fed the 8:30 AM Eastern Employment Situation report could create a significant price reaction upon its release.  If you’re rooting for a rate decrease a miss of the 180K consensus estimate is likely to help Fed or even speed up their action.  A strong jobs number could impede or slow the FOMC decision and receive a negative market reaction.  No matter what happens consider the risk carefully you carry into the weekend after such a steep market rally.

On the Calendar

calendar

We have a light day on the Earnings Calendar with only 16 companies reporting.  Looking through those set to report but none are particularly notable.

Action Plan

According to reports Mexico has made concessions that may avert the 5% increase in Tariffs scheduled for June 10th.  If true that is very good news for US car manufacturers and a welcome relief to the overall market.  US Futures are once again looking to extend the relief rally that has recovered more than 900 Dow points in just three days so far. 

Of course the Employment Situation report at 8:30 AM Eastern will have something to say about how the market opens today.  If the number comes in less then the 180k consensus estimates the market may see that as good news supporting the idea of lowered interest rates in September.  Should the number come in strong the market may see that negatively as it works against the hoped-for rate cut.  One thing is certain this will be a heavily watched report that may inspire a significant market reaction upon its release.  Having seen such a steep rally this week consider the weekend risk as you plan your day.  Have a great weekend everyone.

Trade Wisely,

Doug