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More storms than expected.

September 3, 2019 by Doug Campbell

While all eyes focused on the approaching Florida storm it seems there was another storm brewing in currency markets this weekend. The British Sterling dropped by $1.20, and the Euro slipped to a 28-month low not to mention Argentina that is nearing total financial collapse and Lebanon declaring a state of economic emergency. Certainly, an uncomfortable backdrop for the market as new US-China tariffs took effect on Sunday and spilling August’s volatility into the beginning of September.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but relatively flat while Australia decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Across the pond, European markets are slightly lower across the board as they deal with the uncertainty of Brexit and the Sterling selloff. Here in the US, futures markets are trying to rally off of overnight lows ahead of a big week of economic data but still point to a substantial gap down open adding to the technical damage of the index charts. Hang on as the storm clouds continue to stir with uncertainty.

On the Calendar

On this morning’s Earnings Calendar, we have just over 34 companies reporting results. Notable reports include CONN & COUP.

Action Plan

An eventful holiday weekend as Hurricane Dorian as lashes the coast of Florida, Argentina nears financial collapse, the British Sterling falls below $1.20 while the Euro slides to a 28-month low and additional US-China take effect. The Market also faces a busy Economic Calendar beginning with Housing data as well as the ISM Index today and ending the week with the Employment Situation report Friday morning. It seems the market uncertainty that plagued August markets will spillover into September keeping traders on edge and price volatility high.

Although the US Futures are currently trying to bounce off of overnight lows, it seems likely markets will open with a substantial gap lower putting pressure on hopeful traders that picked up risk heading into the weekend. With traders possibly extending their holiday vacations and the disruptions that Hurricane Dorien could produce anything is possible. Keep an eye on the gap below that was created last Thursday that could easily fill if the bears find inspiration after the morning gap.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

More Chop, No Direction

September 3, 2019 by Rick Saddler

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The market (SPY), More chop and no direction, Friday the buyers had a chance to break out and stay out of the sideways channel they have been playing in, but instead, they started the day with a bullish bang and ended with a fizzle. Here is Tuesday morning after a 3-day weekend and the futures are pointing to a weak open possible below the 34-EMA. The question for the day is where we will close for the day? A close above $ 292.15 we would consider cautiously bullish and below $290.60 bearish

Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern: Do you have an umbrella handy? When dark clouds are on the horizon, you know that a downpour could soon be on the way.

Similarly, when you spot the Dark Cloud Cover pattern on a Japanese candlestick chart, you need to anticipate the arrival of a bearish reversal. This candlestick pattern is somewhat easy to spot because its formation clearly reflects its name: at the end of an uptrend (i.e., a sunny day), a black candle appears (a “dark cloud”), heralding a reversal. Let’s learn a little more about this ominous signal… .Read More Dark Cloud Cover Pattern.

The I path Series S&P 500 VXX Short Term Futures ETN. A close today above the 34-EMA keeps the VXX in a bullish chart pattern, a close above $28.85 would spark fear.

😊 Have a great trading day – Rick

Trade-Ideas

✅ September 3, 2019, No Trade Ideas Today. Trade smart and wait for the QEP→ (QEP) Quality Entry Patterns). These Trade ideas are not recomendations.

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Labor Day Weekend!

August 30, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As the Labor Day weekend approaches the bulls look to extend yesterday’s rally with yet another substantial gap up open. The all or nothing emotional price action has become tiring and honestly ridiculous considering tariffs remain in place and negotiations have yet to begin. Having said that, it’s still nice to have a relief rally! The question now is, can it hold as traders head out for the long weekend, hurricane Dorian targets the Florida coast and growing uncertainty of earnings growth?

Asian markets closed the week mixed but mostly higher as Beijing signals a desire to come back to the negotiations table. European markets see green across the board on the easing of trade war rhetoric even as a no-deal Brexit threat grows. The US Futures are in celebration mode this morning pointing to another substantial gap higher of more than 100 Dow points. Be careful not to chase the open and don’t be surprised if the price action quickly runs out of steam and become light and choppy as traders head out to enjoy the long weekend.

On the Calendar

On the Friday Earnings Calendar we have just 14 companies reporting with BIG, CPB, and JKS among the notable.

Action Plan

Yesterday’s big rally is getting a big gap follow-through this morning extending the indexes into a short-term overbought condition according to T2122. With the Labor Day weekend just around the corner, volumes could quickly decline as traders take off early for the extended weekend vacation. Market emotions are high that a deal will be forthcoming, but a lot can happen over a 3-day weekend so plan your holdings accordingly.

According to forecasts, hurricane Dorian is likely to make landfall on the Flordia Coast Monday. For all our Flordia friends I wish you safety as you make preparations to protect your homes and property. It now appears the storm will slow down and strengthen so, and please don’t brave the storm, get yourselves to safety and wait it out. Dangerous storms such as this can have also have substantial market impacts that affect price action so prepare for more volatility come Tuesday morning.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Willing to Negotiate

August 29, 2019 by Doug Campbell

China surprised the market at 5:30 AM this morning saying they are willing to negotiate to resolve the trade war sharply reversing the US Futures from overnight lows. Traders holding long positions will feel the sweet relief of a big gap up open. However, traders caught short will suffer and may experience the pain of a short squeeze. Though this is a very positive development, make sure to maintain perspective and not get caught up in the hype. Saying they are willing to negotiate is a long way from signing a binding deal, and there are likely going to be a lot of drama along the way.

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight as Treasury yields continued to deteriorate. European markets reversed early losses after the China news and are currently green across the board the morning. US Futures leaped dramatically on the prospect of a China re-engaging in trade talks with the Dow Futures now pointing to a gap up open of more 250 points. Price volatility will likely be wild this morning, so stay disciplined to your trading plan and rules to avoid emotional decisions influenced by the drama this news has created.

On the Calendar

Sixty-three companies are fessing up to their quarterly earnings results this Thursday. Notable reports include DG, ULTA, ANF, ABOC, BBY, BURL, COO, DELL, DLTR, HAIN, TD, and WDAY.

Action Plan

Futures that had been bearish most of the night quickly rallied about 5:30 AM this morning when China says it willing to resolve the trade war and return to the negotiations table. Although agreeing to talk is a long way from agreeing to a binding deal to level the playing field for trade between the two countries, its certainly a positive step forward. Unfortunately, China has also decided to sent troops into Hong Kong. Lets’ hope this conciliatory action is not merely a distraction as they use force to put down the long-running protests.

Market bulls will, of course, be very happy this morning but bears caught short are likely to feel the pain of a short squeeze this morning. I would be careful not to get caught up in the hype, keeping in mind bond yields, Brexit and that an actual signed deal is still likely months away. Also for the market to digest is the big morning on both the economic and earnings calendars. Price volatility could be wild this morning, so plan your approach to the market carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug