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Rebound Whipsaw

October 7, 2019 by Rick Saddler

On Friday, the bulls managed to put together the first consecutive up days of the prior two weeks. It was a strong effort with a gap up and morning follow-through. However, mid-day the market went dead for 2.5 hours before bulls stepped back in and rallied the market steadily right into the close. During the process, the SPY, DIA and QQQ all pushed through and closed just above their 50-sma. Of course, the IWM continues to lag and the downtrend of the last couple weeks remains intact across all major indices.

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In news over the weekend, the impeachment story continues to dominate US news and violence flaring up at Hong Kong protests dominates the International news. On the calendar, Chair Powell speaks again Monday afternoon. However, Inflation data (Tues. and Thur.), JOLTS (unfilled jobs – Wed.) and the release of Sept. FOMC Minutes (Wed.) may be the key economic drivers of the week. That said, the most important event for the economy itself might be the resumption of US-China Trade talks on Thursday. There are very few major earnings announcements this week as earnings season really kicks off next week.

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Overnight, Asian and European markets were in the green. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were pointing to a lower open, back down to retest the 50sma.

Friday’s chart action gives a probability of a higher high today. Yet, with a small gap down at the open, the bulls will have to retest the 50sma before they can rally. So, don’t get too bullish too early. Remember the bulls still have a lot of resistance levels to work through and the downtrend (which runs back to mid-September) is still the current market trend.

The bottom line remains to be cautious. It is very hard to swing trade the recent markets successfully until we start getting less “gaps and whiplash” and more “trend and follow-through.” So be careful chasing after one nice (or ugly) candle.

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. Short– TSN, HEI, BLL Long- PHM, AIZ, DUK, ETR, PG, PEP, STX. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

The World is Watching!

October 4, 2019 by Doug Campbell

With the world is watching and inquiring minds wait in anticipation for the release of the Employment Situation number and how it will impact today’s open. Can it provide the bullish inspiration needed to follow-though on the hopeful bullish hammer patterns left behind yesterday, or will is disappoint adding fuel to the fire of a slowing US economy? How we end this trading week will greatly depend on this key metric and will shape how the market opens today.

Asian markets were mixed overnight as Hong Kong imposes emergency law as anti-China protests continue to disrupt the city. As of the writing of this report, European markets are mixed but mostly higher, but expect that also greatly fluctuate depending on the result of the US Employment numbers this morning. US Futures are currently pointing to a lower open, but that’s likely to change significantly after the 8:30 AM release of the Employment number. Buckle up; it could be a volatile end to a week of technically damaging and tumultuous price action.

On the Calendar

On Friday’s Earnings Calendar, we have just five companies reporting results today with none that would say are market-moving or particularly notable.

Action Plan

Our last notable earnings report for the week, COST, slightly beat on estimates but seems to have disappointed investors that were hoping for a strong showing for the quarter. Interestingly that single report seemed to influence the trading of the overnight futures. Protests continue to have damaging impacts on Hong Kong after the city declared emergency law last night. This morning’s total focus of the market focus on the Employment Situation number that comes out an hour before the market open. The consensus is expecting 145K jobs with a low range of 120k and upper range of 179k. Of course a surprise beat or miss of the key metric could have a profound impact on how the market opens today.

Yesterday the Dow briefly dipped below it’s 200-day moving average while the SPY and QQQ managed to bounce before reaching this key support. Unfortunately, the IWM is well below the 200-day average and will soon display the death-cross with the 50-day dipping below its 200-day. All the indexes experienced a nice bounce rally yesterday leaving behind hammer candle patterns seen as potential bullish. However, if price action is unable to follow through to the upside today the significance and hopefulness of the hammer pattern diminishes dramatically. Thus, there is a lot at stake for the Employment Situation report, and the world is watching.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Rebound Whipsaw

October 4, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Yesterday saw some serious whipsaw, with a 10am free-fall on the extremely poor Non-Mfg. ISM number, followed by an immediate bounce-back. This rebound seems to be built on markets pricing in a 90% chance of further Fed rate cuts in the Oct. FOMC meeting. With that said, the bulls found their footing again late in the day and drove a rally right into the Close. In the process, the SPY and DIA both climbed back above the uptrend (of Lows) line running back into June.

This chart action gives us a high probability of a higher high on Friday. Markets may even try to fill the Thursday Open gap. However, nothing is guaranteed with markets unable to string together two consecutive up days for several weeks now. Needless to say, if we are going higher off yesterday’s strong recovery, the bulls still have A TON of work to do (and levels to work through) to even break the downtrend (of Highs, which runs back to mid-September).

Overnight Asian markets were mixed and European markets are mostly in the green so far. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a one to two- tenths gap lower.

Today’s economic news includes Durable Goods Orders and Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment before the open. These could very well be market-movers as a follow-up to the bad ISM data this week. (Of course, we don’t know if the market will be in a “bad news is bad news” or a “bad news means more helicopter money” mood. This will all be followed by half a dozen Fed speakers (including Chair Powell) during the day. On other fronts, Impeachment, Brexit and the Hong Kong protests (or counter-reaction) will undoubtedly dominate the news.

The bottom line is that it is very hard to swing trade these markets until we start getting less “gaps and whiplash” and more “trend and follow-through.” So be careful chasing after one nice (or ugly) candle. Remember that Friday is payday. So, be sure to book some profits in front of an unpredictable weekend of news.

Sorry there are no trade ideas today. We wish you a fantastic weekend.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Punishing Selloff

October 3, 2019 by Doug Campbell

After a punishing selloff, the market will face an expected decline in Factory Orders and the ISM Services Sector report this morning the worry that the global slowdown has expanded into the US economy. Following a win where the WTO agreed with the Whitehouse, the President has scheduled 7.5 billion in European new tariffs on OCT. 18^th, opening a new front on the trade war and raising concerns of recession.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower on the ramp-up of trade tensions in Europe. Across the pond, European markets also trade mixed as concerns about how the new tariffs will affect there already weakening economy. Currently, US Futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of economic reports. Remember we have the Employment Situation report before the open Friday, so plan your risk carefully and don’t be surprised if the price action becomes stale and choppy as we wait.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have 12 companies reporting results. Notable reports include STZ, COST, and ISCA.

Action Plan

Following an ugly 2-day selloff after a disappointing ISM Manufacturing report, we will get a reading on the service sector with the ISM Non-Mfg report at 10:00 AM eastern along with Factory Orders. The consensus is expecting only a small decline in the services number and an expectation that orders will slip negative that could raise fears of a spreading global slow down. After the World Trade Organization ruled that European government subsidies on aircraft is an unfair trade practice; they cleared the way for the US to impose new tariffs. The President has scheduled 7.5 billion in tariffs to increase on OCT 18^th widening the trade tensions and raising concerns of a US recession.

Technically speaking T2122 suggests a short-term oversold condition, but it will be interesting how the market responds to the opening of another trade war front in Europe. After two strong days of selling the Dow continues to hover above its 200-day average as does the QQQ and SPY. Unfortunately, any market relief rally must come under scrutiny as a possible lower high that may confirm the beginning of a market downtrend. Of course, with the Employment Situation number on Friday, 4^th quarter earnings just around the corner, and trade talks with China to resume soon traders will have to prepare for just about anything.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Below Significant Support

October 3, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Yesterday October 2^nd the sellers were able to bring the SPY down through significant support closing below our Dotted Duece (200FWL). The 200-FWL is where the SPY found support (buyers) rallied back in August 6.6% to challenge the July top. If tomorrow’s unemployment numbers are reasonable, we could see money flowing again in the marker. As for yesterday’s candle, we may see an oversold bounce, but ultimately the 200-SMA on the daily chart is the next target which will be the August lows. More weakness from the 200-SMA the sellers would have their eyes on the January lows or about $273.50

T-Line and T-Line Channels, The weekly chart price action has now brokedown through all the of the bullish trending T-Line Bands, more weakness below the Bands would require a more powerful reversal signal/pattern to be an essential reason for an optimistic outlook. On a side note, the T2122 chart has the T-Line deep into the oversold area on both the daily and weekly charts. The VXX chart is turning quite bullish after the consolidation on and above the T-Line Bands. Yesterday’s gap woke a ton of traders up! Take a look at you 4-hour chart with the bands…they have reversed to point upward. Be ready for anything.

The bottom line, With the market trending down and getting near the daily 200-SMA, we want to protect our short trades with stops or even taking a few profits. At the same time, we want to start building a bullish watchlist in case the bulls begin to get perky. If you did not catch the recent bearish run be careful not to chase do to ”FOMO” (Fear of missing out), you will get another chance.

Rick

Sorry there are no trade ideas today. We wish you a fantastic weekend.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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A Nasty Whipsaw

October 2, 2019 by Doug Campbell

An unexpectedly poor manufacturing number quickly reversed early bullishness yesterday creating a nasty whipsaw and leaving behind some worrisome price patterns. The major indexes all dipped below their 50-day averages by the close as they each left behind bearish engulfing patterns in the process. Most troubling was the notable reversals in the financial, transport, and technical sectors. Technical failures in an already uncertain market will likely spark some fear in the market so prepare for higher volatility in the days ahead.

Overnight Asian markets closed in the red across the board in reaction to global slowdown fears. Market in Europe is also looking lower this morning as they wait for the Prime Minister to unveil a revised Brexit proposal for the UK. US Futures have bounced off of overnight lows but still point to substantial gap down this morning and a possible short-term oversold condition according to the T2122 indicator. Expect price action to be volatile, news sensitive and, challenging even for very experienced traders.

On the Calendar

On the Wednesday Earnings Calendar, we just 12 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Among the notable reports, today are BBBY, LEN, AYI, LW, and PAYX.

Action Plan

On the day after JNJ pays a large fine to settle their roll in the opioid crisis, traders might be looking for something to relieve the pain of yesterday’s selloff and the substantial gap down setting up this morning. By the close on Tuesday all the major indexes slipped below their 50-day moving averages leaving behind some worrisome technical damage in the charts. A surprisingly disappointing manufacturing number created an ugly whipsaw that left bearish engulfing candles all over the place yesterday.

Notable reversals in the financial sector and transports and the technical damage in the tech sector are particularly troubling. At the time of writing this report, US Futures have bounced off of their overnight lows but still suggest a gap down of nearly 150 Dow points at the open. According to the T2122 indicator this will create a short-term oversold condition so be careful not to chase bearish positions already well into their move lower. Remember this is a very emotional news-driven market, so plan your risk carefully and be willing to take profits quickly as they can be very fleeting in this environment.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bearish Oreo Cookie

October 2, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Another lower low, Bearish Engulf, and a Bearish Oreo Cookie pattern. Yesterday was a particularly bad day for the market. The pre-market futures this morning don’t seem to be finished pushing the market either. As we have been posting, below $297.95 was the line that the bulls needed to capture, below $297.95 was chop and dangerous place to be buying to my longs, and closing below $293. 70 was going to bring in a bear storm. Right now I don’t see too much from stopping the bears sell us off to the $ 290.00, $288.80 area. We had bought some VXX yesterday with a possible move offer the $25.00 Line (so far so good. Over the $25,00 line, we possibly could see $26.40, which would be a SWEET PROFIT. And possible challenge the $28.00 range.

T-Line and T-Line Channels, Another day below the T-Line Bands (Channels), and a lower low. The August price action makes for a smooth trend line drawn. Looking at the premarket action price is already below the line, the bears (sellers) are a bit hangry. The VXX chart us pushing up through the T-Line Bands like butter and now have established a little support over the bands.

The bottom line, We should never rule out a monster bullish reversal on any given day, but until it happens the closing candle today and the recent candles (price action) can lead us to $288.80 then possibly the August lows. Managing your portfolio is far more critical than finding new hot trades to trade. Here is a good quote I heard years ago…”Don’t eat like a bird and poop like an elephant.

Rick

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. Short– TSN, RPM, COST Long- SBH, FIT, HOME- Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Range-bound Consolidation

October 1, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As this frustrating range-bound consolidation continues, we can thank our friends down under for the possibility of the second day of bullishness as Australia cuts interest rates to just 75 basis points. Of course, we can’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop pattern by the end of the day, but at least for now the bulls seem inspired to follow-through on yesterday’s rally. With the uncertainty of 4^th quarter earnings and China trade negotiations scheduled in the new 2-weeks, I wouldn’t be all surprised to see the price action remain choppy and range-bound.

Overnight Asian markets recovered from early bearishness to close mostly higher in reaction to the Australian rate cut. European markets are not sharing in the bullishness currently flat to mostly lower this morning. US Futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of PMI, ISM, Construction spending reports as well as a parade of Fed speakers. It would seem October will continue to face considerable uncertainty and likely to remain news-driven with enough daily gaps and overnight reversals to keep traders guessing, What comes next?

On the Calendar

The Tuesday Earnings Calendar says we will hear from just seven companies reporting results. Notable reports include MKC and SFIX.

Action Plan

We can thank Australia for slashing its interest rates to a new record low of just 75 basis points inspiring the possibility of a seconded day in a row of bullish price action. During the night, Asian markets were struggling until the rate cut but closed the trading day mostly higher on the news. US indexes remain locked in a choppy range-bound consolidation that but except for the QQQ’s have successfully held their 50-day morning averages. On the whole, I would have to count that a win for the bulls considering all the swirling uncertainty the market faces.

With 4^th Quarter earnings just 2-weeks away, it’s sadly possible; the market could continue in this choppy and challenging consolidation. With Washington politics in utter chaos and pending China Trade negotiations set to begin in a couple of weeks, we should expect October to remain a challenging news-driven market with enough gaps and overnight reversals to test the discipline of even the most experienced traders.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Price Below T-Bands

October 1, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Yesterday was a Doji / Harami day in the SPY closing below our bullish number of $297.95 and above our bearish number of $293.69. The 34-EMA still is above the 50-SMA, and price action is hovering around both. On the hourly chart, price is in bed with the duces (200-SMA and the Dotted Deuces), the 34-EMA and 50-SMA has kept price pushed down. Price simply needs to be above $297.95

T-Line and T-Line Channels, Price action on the daily chart has fallen below the T-Line and the T-Line Channels. If the Price action gets below the $293.70 line, we should see the T-Line Channels start to lean a little to the downside. The weekly chart has price action between the two upper channels on a bullish pullback; I say bullish because the withdrawal is above the 38% retracement of the August low and September high run and above the 293.70 support line.

The bottom line, Below $297.50 and above $293.70 is just a tug a war between the buyers and sellers, think of it as one significant indecision Doji. The winner will show it’s colors soon. This flat trading can be challenging to navigate; I personally think the key is not to over trade.

Rick

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. HOME, DOCU, WHR, PHM, SSNC, JBL, CLDR, SNX, HIIQ Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Above $297.95

September 30, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Above $297.95 today may open the gate for more buying to challenge the $300.00 level and above. The low Friday ($293.69) started to test the August, May and September 2018 support level and found the 50-SMA, the question now will the buyers be able to build a game here? Both the daily and weekly charts of the SPY show no signs of buyer Friday.

The weekly trend from June 7, to mid-August, extended still paints a bullish trend. Now if you take in the top from June you will see a double top. The chart pattern building is a weekly Ascending Triangle. IMPORTANT, if the SPY closes below the 50-SMA the bears may have cut the legs off the buyers. Beware if VXX can show strength above $25.40

The bottom line, stay calm and remember you do not have to trade every day. Cash is a position. We have bought very little over the last few trading days, but we have managed what we own and have close a few for profits. I have personally found by waiting for the reversal pattern (Bullish or Bearish) then trade the trend after that is pretty profitable.

Rick

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. DNR, CYH, XEC, PRGO, FIT, STT, NTNX, WHR, SU. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching