After a massive overnight recovery from the fear generated by Iranian retaliatory rocket attacks, markets rallied early Wednesday.  However, there was also a selloff when it was announced that President Trump would address the nation late morning.  Completely unexpectedly, the President adopted a relatively de-escalatory tone.  Markets rallied hard the rest of the morning on that surprisingly measured and responsible stance.

However, after lunch, markets chopped sideways the rest of the day.  The day ended off the highs, but the SPY gained 0.52%, the DIA gained 0.58% and the QQQ (which did close at a new all-time high close) gained 0.75%.  As you’d expect, the VXX was down again to a very low 14.80.  While this was a great day for bulls, there are still some concerns about this situation that should be kept in mind. 

Remember, in addition to claiming victory, the President did add more new sanctions and did threaten Iran again.  Second, Iran has not truly backed down and their replacement for the killed General Soleimani is essentially a clone, with the same geopolitical outlook, resources and international networks in place.  Third, after the President’s recent new deployments, the US has 60,000 troops in the Gulf.  This makes for a lot of chances on both sides for mistakes, rogue actions or local events to spiral larger.  Then, of course, we also have the fact that President Trump isn’t known for consistency, especially when it comes to being consistent with positions contrary to his own previous threats or bluster. 

Finally, President Trump said he’d ask NATO to both: 1) pull out of the 2015 JCPOA deal (which he already pulled the US out of) and 2) get involved in military deterrence of Iran in the Persian Gulf.  However, as late as Tuesday both Germany and France had made statements in support of keeping the deal alive and on Wednesday (prior to Trump’s address) the UK’s PM told UK Parliament that the 2015 deal was the best and only way to create lasting peace in the middle east without a nuclear Iran.  So, NATO support of the President’s request or position seems quite unlikely.

The point is, while the situation seems better than was expected and all is well now, we are not out of the woods on this story yet.  More importantly, the ease at which the market has brushed off potential negatives such as the threat of war should give us pause…a reason to be cautious. 

Thursday’s major economic news is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and three Fed speakers over the course of the morning.  There are no earnings reports on the day.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green on hopes of middle-east de-escalation.  In Europe, markets are mostly green on the perceived ramp down in tensions.   As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are pointing to a significant gap higher of between 0.4% and 0.6% across the major indices.

Once again, with any path to de-escalation open, it’s hard to bet against the bulls.  They’ve only wanted to hear good news for a long time now.  However, this is also a risk factor, because it is things Mr. Market doesn’t expect that causes big shocks.  So, all we can do is continue to be nimble, use hedges and/or limit exposure.  As always, you know my mantra, keep planning your trades, and trading your plans.  Taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself, and wait for the trade to come to you. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: INXN, NFLX, CL, LPX, CNC, BIDU, IGT, ZS, MIC, ULTA. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A pause took hold Tuesday as markets gapped a bit lower at the open and then indecisive trading reigned the rest of the day.  At day end, the SPY was down 0.28%, DIA down 0.43%, and the QQQ was flat at -0.01%.  T2122 fell back into its mid-range at 58.16 and even the VXX fell slightly to 15.01.

However, more important than the Tuesday session was the overnight story of the Iranian response to the US assassination of Iran’s top General.  Iranian state television report that they had fired tens of rockets/missiles at least two US bases in Iraq.  This response came hours after the funeral for that Iranian General, where 50 people were killed by a stampede among the hundreds of thousands of mourners chanting for revenge. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures immediately fell over 400 points (1.5%), Oil prices spiked 4%, and Gold rose 2.1% upon news of the Iranian attack.  However, this seems to have been a very measured Iranian response, intended to open the door to de-escalation.  The reason I say this is that these rockets were fired at very large, sprawling bases that had already been under local rocket attacks.  The attacks were also forewarned, allowing the US to prepare.  Therefore, US casualties were less likely…and that is what happened, no US casualties.

Taking that cue, so far President Trump has backed away from his threats, made no speech to the Nation and has not retaliated.  Perhaps as a result of this “de-escalation so far,” markets have fully recovered overnight. While this story will likely continue to drive news and keep unfolding, for now, US markets have stabilized.

Wednesday’s major economic news is limited to Dec. ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  However, earnings season is starting again with reports from STZ, LEN and WBA before the open.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the red on the aftermath of the Iranian strike.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly green on the perceived limited response from Iran.   As of 8:00 am, U.S. futures are pointing to flat to slightly higher open.

With a path to de-escalation open, it’s hard to bet against the bulls again.  For months they have seen the good in every event and ignored the bad.  However, anything can happen short-term.  So, all we can do is be nimble and/or use hedges or reduce exposure.  As was pointed out in last night’s e-learning session, even stops can’t protect you from gaps.  However, when you do trade, keep planning your trades, and trading your plans.  As always, keep taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself and wait for the trade to come to you. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BYND, TWTR, FTCH, ETSY, ANET, BIDU, T, ACHC, GE. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down Monday (on fears over the Iran mess), but the bulls would have none of it.  An all-day rally left all the major indices printing very strong Marubozu (shaved head) candles, closing on the highs.  While the SPY, DIA, and QQQ did not print new all-time highs, we are back within spitting distance of those marks.  Markets are also still not over-bought again (at least by the T2122 metric, which rose, but remains below 80).  Oil prices also stabilized, dipping after the true risk of Persian Gulf conflict was reweighed.

A US Marine Brigadier General (William Seely) sent a letter to the Iraqi Ministry of Defense implying that the US would be removing troops from Iraq, starting with the Green Zone.  However, after-hours the US Department of Defense said the letter was a mistake and denied that US troops will be leaving, but are instead just repositioning.  In the meantime, the US deployed the 82^nd Airborne Division (about 3,500 men) and a 2,200 man Marine Rapid-Reaction Group back to the region and President Trump said we were not leaving unless Iraq pays us for building an airbase. Finally, the Pentagon rejected President Trump’s list of threatened 52 Iranian targets as many of them are illegal targets under International law (cultural and religious sites).

In business news, American Airlines (AAL) reached an agreement with Boeing (BA) over the compensation BA will pay over the grounding of the 737Max.  Finally, Pier 1 Imports (PIR) reported it will close 450 stores (nearly half of their current stores).

Tuesday’s major economic news includes Import/Exports (8:30 am), and Nov. Factory Orders and Nov. Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am).  There are no earnings reports Tuesday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  In Europe, markets are green across the board at this point.  As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are sitting on either side of flat as the world seems to have now moved past the latest Persian Gulf crisis for the moment. Even oil is down about a percent at this point. 

The bulls great showing Monday tells us who is in-charge of markets. While anything can happen short-term, as we’ve said before, it’s hard to bet against the bulls in the longer-term. As always, keep planning your trades, trading your plans and keep taking profits along the way. Remember it is consistent singles and doubles that win the game…not occasional home runs. However, it may be time to reconsider any short or hedge positions put on due to the US-Iran situation.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PTCT, CHGG, BLUE, VG, EXAS, TDOC, GGAL, WORK, GPS, M, ATVI, GRUB Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower Friday on fears and consequences of the US assassination of a top Iranian General (on his way to meet with the Iraqi Prime Minister).  However, the major indices recovered a bit over the session.  At the end of the day, the SPY was down 0.76%, DIA down 0.80% and QQQ down 0.92%.  So, the bulls are not ready to run for cover and we remain near all-time highs.  However, the short-term trend is more sideways than bullish as of the end of the week.

It was a busy weekend of reactions from the US drone strike in Iraq.  Iran says they are no longer bound by the 2015 nuclear deal and are ramping up uranium enrichment.  Rockets were fired into the Green Zone, landing near the US Embassy in Iraq.  The Iraqi government has suspended coalition operations against ISIS.  In addition, the Iraqi Parliament (at the request of the Iraqi PM) has demanded that US troops leave their country and refrain from using Iraqi land, water or air space.  Finally, President Trump is threatening sanctions on Iraq (for kicking us out) and also threatened to strike 52 specific Iranian targets if Iran retaliates…and has deployed thousands more US troops to the area in order to back up that threat. 

While market impacts over this still-unfolding story are unsure at this point, it would seem likely that oil markets will be unsettled by the threat of war in the Persian Gulf.  (Brent hit $70 today.) Typically, after a middle-eastern crisis, safety plays (Gold and Bonds) tend to fade and stocks gain after an initial reaction.  However, oil prices tend to remain elevated for longer periods.  An interesting non-US fallout is that the Saudi Aramco stock price fell nearly two percent Sunday over fears of Iranian reprisal attacks against Saudi Arabia. 

Monday’s major economic news is limited to Dec. Services PMI (9:45 am).  The only earnings report of note Monday is STT. However, there may be news out of Congress (either over limiting President’s Trumps War Powers toward Iran or on the Impeachment).

In other business news, BA has found another potential design/wiring flaw in their 737Max. Just like the software flaw that caused the crashes, a December audit found that Boeing knew of this problem, but had not reported it to the FAA.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red on the news out of Iraq.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but mostly red at this point.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are down sharply (greater than 1%) following Thursday’s stellar start to the year.  

The bulls were off to a great start on January 2^nd.  However, the killing of Iran’s top general has thrown the world into turmoil again.  It’s hard to bet against the bulls in the longer-term.  However, anything can happen short-term.  So, all we can do is be nimble, add hedges or get flat until things settle.  Continue to plan your trades, and trade your plans.  As always, keep taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself and wait for the trade to come to you. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CTST, LB, NIO, NUAN, WDAY, TWLO, GE, ROKU, CGC, SHW, XPO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service