After an evening of missiles, turmoil, and rising tensions that
sent markets tumbling around the world, the message from the President that All
Is Well, restored frayed nerves and market prices. Shortly after the news of the attack, the Dow
Futures plunged more than 400 as a sobering reminder just how quickly geopolitical
events can affect the path forward for the market. Traders should carefully consider this and
plan their risk accordingly to protect themselves as tensions between the
countries remain very high.
Asian markets closed seeing only red overnight as oil and
gold prices spike after the Iranian missile attack. European markets have, however, recovered overnight
losses currently holding modest gains while closely monitoring developments. US Futures ahead of earnings and economic
reports now suggest a flat to slightly bullish open. Market jitters have subsided for now keep one
ear to the news as massive price volatility could be just one report away.
On the Calendar
On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 24 companies reporting
quarterly results. Notable reports
include STZ, BBBY, LEN, MSM & WBA.
Action Plan
After Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at Iraqi airbases
that house US troops. According to
reports, there were no lives lost in the attack but came with a warning from Iran
to withdraw forces from the area to avoid additional actions. Markets around the world quickly reacted with
the US Dow Futures sinking more than 400 points while gold and oil prices
spiked. However, after the President
issued a statement last night that all was okay, markets have recovered, but it
is a sobering reminder of how quickly geopolitical events can affect market
prices.
As tensions continue, traders should plan their risk
accordingly and always have a plan to protect your capital if this conflict
continues to escalate. As of yesterday,
the bullish trends remained intact, although the price action was choppy, reflecting
the uncertainty of the day. US Futures
now indicate a flat to slightly bullish open ahead of some notable earnings and
economic report. In times of turmoil, we
naturally first think of how the situation effect our money and ourselves. May I suggest we all take a minute to
remember our troops standing in harm’s way and their families undoubtedly
stressed and worried about their loved ones.
We risk only money, and they risk their lives to protect us!
Markets gapped down Monday (on fears over the Iran mess), but the bulls would have none of it. An all-day rally left all the major indices printing very strong Marubozu (shaved head) candles, closing on the highs. While the SPY, DIA, and QQQ did not print new all-time highs, we are back within spitting distance of those marks. Markets are also still not over-bought again (at least by the T2122 metric, which rose, but remains below 80). Oil prices also stabilized, dipping after the true risk of Persian Gulf conflict was reweighed.
A US Marine Brigadier General (William Seely) sent a letter to the Iraqi Ministry of Defense implying that the US would be removing troops from Iraq, starting with the Green Zone. However, after-hours the US Department of Defense said the letter was a mistake and denied that US troops will be leaving, but are instead just repositioning. In the meantime, the US deployed the 82nd Airborne Division (about 3,500 men) and a 2,200 man Marine Rapid-Reaction Group back to the region and President Trump said we were not leaving unless Iraq pays us for building an airbase. Finally, the Pentagon rejected President Trump’s list of threatened 52 Iranian targets as many of them are illegal targets under International law (cultural and religious sites).
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In business news, American Airlines (AAL) reached an agreement with Boeing (BA) over the compensation BA will pay over the grounding of the 737Max. Finally, Pier 1 Imports (PIR) reported it will close 450 stores (nearly half of their current stores).
Tuesday’s major economic news includes Import/Exports (8:30 am), and Nov. Factory Orders and Nov. Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am). There are no earnings reports Tuesday.
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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. In Europe, markets are green across the board at this point. As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are sitting on either side of flat as the world seems to have now moved past the latest Persian Gulf crisis for the moment. Even oil is down about a percent at this point.
The bulls great showing Monday tells us who is in-charge of markets. While anything can happen short-term, as we’ve said before, it’s hard to bet against the bulls in the longer-term. As always, keep planning your trades, trading your plans and keep taking profits along the way. Remember it is consistent singles and doubles that win the game…not occasional home runs. However, it may be time to reconsider any short or hedge positions put on due to the US-Iran situation.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PTCT, CHGG, BLUE, VG, EXAS, TDOC, GGAL, WORK, GPS, M, ATVI, GRUB Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. The stocks/etfs we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Geopolitical fears proved to be no match for the relentless
march of the bulls yesterday. By the
close of the day, not only had they rejected the fear of the gap down but left
behind bullish engulfing candle patterns that held support and trend. However, the substantial rise in gold and oil
prices seems to be a huge contradiction to this exuberant bull run. As Iran promises retaliation and the US warns
waterway shippers of possible attacks, traders should plan their risk carefully
keeping a close on the developments in the middle east.
Overnight Asian markets also set aside retaliation fears
closing the day green across the board.
European markets are also rebounding this morning as fears seem to has
subsided. As I write this report US
Futures that boldly continued to rally overnight seem a bit more subdued ahead
of economic reports on International Trade, Factory Orders and the ISM.
On the Calendar
On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 10 companies
reporting with none that particularly notable.
Action Plan
The bulls shook off the fear of potential retaliation from
Iran yesterday rejecting the gap down lows of the last two trading days. To be honest, I’m not sure where the overall
confidence is coming from with Iranian generals publicly speaking about
retaliation and US warnings; they are concerned about waterway attacks. Nonetheless, the bulls remain relentlessly in
control of the trend that left behind bullish engulfing candle patterns on the
DIA, SPY, and QQQ.
Bullish is a good thing but over-exuberant blind bullishness
and become very dangerous so let’s hope it’s not the later. With the recent pullback, the T2122 indicator
has relaxed, allowing more room for the indexes to extend more to the
upside. However, there is a contradiction
in the VIX, which shows little to no fear while gold, (GLD) has gone nearly
parabolic in its rally over the last few days.
Overnight futures continued to push boldly higher as have oil prices
that at one point topped $70 a barrel yesterday. With little on the earnings calendar, the
market will look to the economic reports on International Trade, Factory Orders
and ISM numbers for inspiration. Also,
remember geopolitical news could create substantial reversals and price volatility,
so plan your risk accordingly.
Inthis video, Rick looks at 10 charts for his watch-list the coming week 1/13/2020 and maybe longer. (SPT) See it – Plan it – Trade it. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. This post is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. 60-day trial for just $49.
DISCLAIMER: The stocks we talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell. You must evaluate the risks and rewards yourself. Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is financial or trading advice. All information provided is intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to thoroughly test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Markets gapped lower Friday on fears and consequences of the US assassination of a top Iranian General (on his way to meet with the Iraqi Prime Minister). However, the major indices recovered a bit over the session. At the end of the day, the SPY was down 0.76%, DIA down 0.80% and QQQ down 0.92%. So, the bulls are not ready to run for cover and we remain near all-time highs. However, the short-term trend is more sideways than bullish as of the end of the week.
It was a busy weekend of reactions from the US drone strike in Iraq. Iran says they are no longer bound by the 2015 nuclear deal and are ramping up uranium enrichment. Rockets were fired into the Green Zone, landing near the US Embassy in Iraq. The Iraqi government has suspended coalition operations against ISIS. In addition, the Iraqi Parliament (at the request of the Iraqi PM) has demanded that US troops leave their country and refrain from using Iraqi land, water or air space. Finally, President Trump is threatening sanctions on Iraq (for kicking us out) and also threatened to strike 52 specific Iranian targets if Iran retaliates…and has deployed thousands more US troops to the area in order to back up that threat.
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While market impacts over this still-unfolding story are unsure at this point, it would seem likely that oil markets will be unsettled by the threat of war in the Persian Gulf. (Brent hit $70 today.) Typically, after a middle-eastern crisis, safety plays (Gold and Bonds) tend to fade and stocks gain after an initial reaction. However, oil prices tend to remain elevated for longer periods. An interesting non-US fallout is that the Saudi Aramco stock price fell nearly two percent Sunday over fears of Iranian reprisal attacks against Saudi Arabia.
Monday’s major economic news is limited to Dec. Services PMI (9:45 am). The only earnings report of note Monday is STT. However, there may be news out of Congress (either over limiting President’s Trumps War Powers toward Iran or on the Impeachment).
In other business news, BA has found another potential design/wiring flaw in their 737Max. Just like the software flaw that caused the crashes, a December audit found that Boeing knew of this problem, but had not reported it to the FAA.
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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red on the news out of Iraq. In Europe, markets are also mixed but mostly red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are down sharply (greater than 1%) following Thursday’s stellar start to the year.
The bulls were off to a great start on January 2nd. However, the killing of Iran’s top general has thrown the world into turmoil again. It’s hard to bet against the bulls in the longer-term. However, anything can happen short-term. So, all we can do is be nimble, add hedges or get flat until things settle. Continue to plan your trades, and trade your plans. As always, keep taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself and wait for the trade to come to you.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CTST, LB, NIO, NUAN, WDAY, TWLO, GE, ROKU, CGC, SHW, XPO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Increased saber-rattling over the weekend as Iran and the US
exchange threats and tensions grow between the countries. Not surprisingly, markets around the world
are reacting negatively to the growing uncertainty. With little on earnings or economic calendar
to provide market inspiration, the news spin cycle will affect market sentiment
and price action volatility. Traders
will have to stay nimble and focused carefully on price action for clues. As of the close on Friday, index trends and
support held as the bulls stepped up to defend after the morning gap down. Unfortunately, we face a similar bearish gap
this morning.
Don’t forget me, I’m a tough guy too!
Asian markets closed in the red across the board as oil
prices jumped more than 2%. European indexes
are also trading negatively this morning as they monitor the growing tensions
between Iran and the US. Futures this morning
here in the US point to a substantial gap down open this morning to begin our
first full trading week this year.
Geopolitical events can create extreme shifts in sentiment as news comes
out. Plan your risk accordingly.
On the Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar, we have just 4 companies
reporting, but none are notable and unlikely to any overall market effect.
Action Plan
With little on the economic and earnings calendar today, the
market will likely focus on the Iranian tensions and any news developments on
the subject. Over the weekend, Iran
voted to expel the US from the country and threats were made against the US
troops to be removed by force. The President
responded, saying the troops would remain right where they are unless Iran pays
back the American people for the expensive and newly created base. He also threatened sanctions like the country
had never seen before.
In response to the Iranian threat of retaliation, the
President said the US has picked out 52 targets if they do. Now the House, which is upset they were not
briefed on the Iranian airstrike, are trying to move forward a bill this week that
would attempt to limit Presidental powers.
As you might imagine, markets around the world continue to react negatively
to the saber-rattling and the uncertainty it creates. As of
the close on Friday, the bullish trend remained in tack and bulls had successfully
defended price support levels. Futures
this morning reflect the worry of the market pointing to a substantial gap down
at the open to begin our first full week of trading in 2020.
Let’s look at GE found on the LTA scanner. We’ll discuss what I like about it, what potential I see and how I might trade it. If you aren’t already in the room, you might think about taking a 60-day trial for just $49.
DISCLAIMER: The stocks we talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell. You must evaluate the risks and rewards yourself. Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is financial or trading advice. All information provided is intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to thoroughly test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After a very exuberant Thursday rally, a US airstrike in
retaliation for the embassy attack is sending shock waves through the world
markets this morning. What a difference
a day makes as uncertainty once again raises its ugly head as we move toward
the weekend. As traders face an
uncertain weekend, it could easily trigger some profit-taking and increase the
overall price action volatility. Watch closely
if index price supports can stave off this initial knee-jerk reaction. If they begin to fail, profit-taking could
quickly increase.
Asian markets closed the day lower across the board but rather
subdued overall. European markets are
all in the red this morning in reaction to the Iranian tensions. US Futures point to a sharply lower open this
morning with the Dow indicating a gap down of more than 250. Buckle up; it could be a bumpy ride.
On the Calendar
On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have 18 companies listed
as reporting, but just one confirmed report from LW and it happens to be the
only one that’s noteworthy on the day.
Action Plan
A day after an exuberant rally that set new records, the
market has a very different attitude this morning. During the evening in response to the invasion
of the US Embassy in Iran, a strategic killed one of Iran’s top generals
sending shock waves throughout the middle east and possibly escalating the
conflict. Qasem Soleimani is tied directly
to the deaths of over 600 Americans and was a very popular military leader in
Iran. What comes next is anyone’s guess,
and that uncertainty is evident with a quick look at the futures market.
Lettering design poster, banner.
The strong bullish trend over the last three months may
still hold after this morning’s knee jerk reaction, but overall, the market
hates uncertainty, and we can expect the VIX will respond to show some
fear. Keep a close eye on price supports
within the index trends. Failure of
supports heading into an uncertain weekend could set off a wave of
profit-taking. Remember, we have the
ISM, Petroleum Status and the FOMC minutes on the economic calendar along with
a parade of Fed speakers.
In economic news Thursday, the biggest story of the day came prior to the US market open. The Chinese Central Bank lowered the amount of capital Chinese Banks must hold. This move will inject between $800 billion and $1 trillion into the Chinese economy, with world markets hoping that stimulus will cause a world-wide rebound. Thus we got a gap up.
So, Markets gapped higher to start the new year. This was met with sideways grind until the bulls kicked it into gear again after 2 pm. There were significant surges about 2:30 pm and again at 3:50 pm. The net result was that the SPY closed up 0.94%, DIA up 1.23% and QQQ up 1.67%…all closing at new all-time high closes. This happened on above-average volume. As you’d expect, the VXX fell dramatically as well, down to 14.51. There simply is no fear in this market.
Overnight last night, the potentially most significant story of the day came out of Iraq. President Trump apparently ordered the targeted killing of Iran’s top military General, while he was in Iraq. (Akin to some other country killing the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.) This is the second US airstrike in Iraq targeting Iran or Iranian allies in the last couple of days. Iran is vowing revenge, the US State Department has ordered Americans out of Iraq and Iraqis are, understandably, not pleased with US actions or the prospect of another war.
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This action may betray US administration policy. Obviously it has the potential to spiral into another middle eastern War for the US. (This is conjecture, but based on forward-positioning of tens of thousands of US Troops into Saudi Arabia in recent months, Administration actions against Iran since Trump took office, and the fact that no sitting US President has lost an election during wartime…it seems plausible.) In any event, Dow futures dropped 350 points on this news overnight. Oil prices also spiked four percent.
Friday’s major economic news includes Dev. ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a couple of Fed speakers in the afternoon. The only earnings report of note is LW.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red on the news out of Iraq. In Europe, markets are also mixed but mostly red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are down sharply (greater than 1%) following Thursday’s stellar start to the year.
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The year was off to a great start and the bulls seem to be focusing on optimism over a trade deal with China and potential for some recovery based on Chinese economic stimulus. However, this military situation with Iran now takes center stage and will bring fear and uncertainty back into markets. I had intended to say that over-extension and the unknown are the only things to fear early this year. However, at least one of those unknowns now has a name…Iran.
With that said, we cannot predict geopolitics, US politics or market reactions. All we can do is add hedges or get flat until things settle. So, continue to plan your trades, and trade your plans. Don’t chase the new year rally. Trade charts you have analyzed and chosen to meet your criteria. As always, keep taking profits along the way, move your stops to protect yourself and wait for the trade to come to you.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMD, GE, TWLO, IEF, MPLX, INTC, CSCO, NKE, INFO, CGC, VXX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
