The Rally Remains Strong

Once again, the bullish run continued Tuesday led by Energy as bulls have their eyes focused out on the future post-recovery.  After a small gap higher at the open markets ground sideways most of the day.  However, a strong late-day rally closed the market very near its highs.  On the day, the SPY was up 0.83%, the DIA up 1.02%, and the QQQ up 0.67%.  The VXX fell to 32.49 and T2122 remains very high at 96.59.  Oil (WTI) closed up over 4% to $36.90/barrel and 10-year bond yields climbed a bit to 0.684%.

In business news, WFC is worried about loan defaults.  As a result, they have stopped making loans to and through independent car dealerships, who they perceive to be servicing riskier customers than major brand dealerships.  In the process, WFC has had to drop hundreds of independent dealership customers.

The SBA announced that over $120 billion of PPP funds remain untapped.  After an initial rush in the second round, demand for the loans/grants dried up.   Small business organizations cited a fear of potential audits if a company takes the loans.  Meanwhile, IL became the first state to tap the Fed loan fund, requesting $1.2 billion for a one-year loan after their bond yields rose.

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 6,474,784 confirmed cases and 382,922 deaths.  In Japan, the government issued another “stay home” alert for Tokyo after a “jump” in cases.  (They had lifted restrictions on May 25.)  Italy proved that the US isn’t the only place with conspiracy theorists as hundreds of protesters gathered in Rome to shout “Liberty” (calling for complete opening and dropping of restrictions) while their leaders claimed the pandemic never existed and is some global conspiracy.

In the US, we have 1,881,256 confirmed cases and 108,062 deaths reported to date. CNBC reported an industry group that cited a survey of restaurants found the number of transactions was only down 18% (year on year) as of the end of May.  Of course, carryout and fast food in particular are bouncing back fast, with full-service still down just over 40%.  Meanwhile, Amazon has announced plans for a major sale date (similar to Black Friday) for June 22 with the goal of “jumpstarting sales.”  It is likely that other retailers will join the movement rather than yield all the sales to AMZN.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board yet again.  European stocks are following suit with the major bourses each up 1-2% as of midday.  At 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to gap higher of 0.3%-0.6%.

Wednesday’s major economic news includes May ADP Non-farm Employment (8:15 am), May Service PMI (9:45 am), Apr. Factory Orders and May ISM Non-Mfg. Employment (both at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The only earnings reports of note are AEO, CNK, EXPR, GOOS, CPB and VRA before the open.  Then after the close CLDR, FOSL and GEF report.

The bulls still see nothing but blue skies and optimism as they look past protests and pandemic damage.  The trend, momentum, and a bit of room up to next resistance in the charts should give the bulls the edge again Wednesday.  Even intraday swings have lessened very recently.  Continue to stay focused on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits.  However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge.  Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. M, EOG, HAL, CF, MGM, HD, CB, AJG, NCLH, INO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bullish Gap

Death, destruction, unemployment, disease, and social unrest is not enough to dissuade the bulls from pushing higher this morning as futures recover overnight losses and point to a bullish gap up open.  The index trends and price patterns remain bullish as investors hold on to hopes of a fast economic recovery.  As you plan your risk, keep in mind the busy economic calendar in the last half of the week that will have a high focus on unemployment. 

Bullish Gap

Asian markets closed higher as US/China tensions continue to simmer.  European markets are also bullish this morning on reopening hopes, and the US Futures point to a Dow gap up of nearly 150 points despite the social unrest and business closures.  We have a light day of earnings and economic data, so markets may be a bit more sensitive to the political news cycle today.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have about just over 30 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include AMBA, CBRL, CRWD, LE, HQY, SDRL, ZM, BBW, DKS, & ZM.

Technically Speaking

A night after violent protests, looting, and police officers injured, the futures continue to push higher.  The President has called the demonstrations acts of domestic violence and stated he would call out the national guard to regain order.  Let’s hope it does not come to that.  As tensions continue to grow between the US and China, there is news that China may not live up to the Phase 1 trade agreement after the Whitehouse stripped Hong Kong of its special status.  Amidst all everything else, the economy has to deal with the threat of a new trade war; it would make a recovery exceptionally challenging.  That said, death, destruction, and disease have done nothing to dissuade the bulls from buying up stock despite the ugly economic numbers.

The T2122 indicator continues to signal an overbought condition, but the price action and price patterns of the index charts remain very bullish.  Economic metrics, historic unemployment, and soaring consumer, as well as governmental debit, are apparently of no consequence these days.  Through this new normal is confusing as technical traders, we must stay focused on the price action.  With high volatility and the market’s predilection of significant morning gaps, that can be a dangerous endeavor.  Watch for clues of profit-taking lues as we head into a busy economic calendar through the remainder of the week, but until then, trade stick with the market direction as the bulls drive upward.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls See Good Things Ahead

The bulls just kept on chugging Monday.  A slight red open was met with steady, but slow buying until 2 pm.  From there, stocks ground sideways to slightly down into the close.  On the day, the SPY gained 0.41%, the DIA gained 0.39%, and the QQQ gained 0.30%.  VXX was essentially flat at 33.42 and T2122 climbed further into the overbought territory at 93.18.  The 10-year bond yield climbed a bit to 0.667% and Oil (WTI) also gained slightly to $33.56/barrel.

Markets seem to be focusing on the impending (and further out) economic recovery, regardless of current civil unrest and government reactions.  UBER, LYFT, and SBUX are the latest to say the unrest is impacting their operations, as they are city-focused companies. In Silicon Valley, CEO Zuckerberg will address a company “town hall” for FB after several hundred employees staged a “virtual walkout” partially related to this on Monday. 

On the trade war front, China has apparently ordered state-controlled companies to stop ordering US farm products (particularly soybeans).  This seems to come in retaliation for the US response to a new security law covering Hong Kong.  However, it is likely just the renaming of an actual lack of need that will reverse once China’s economy has fully recovered and their Pork producers have herds re-established.  (China has been fighting African Swine Fever for close to a year and soybeans are a primary hog feed.)

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 6,394,415 confirmed cases and 377,971 deaths.  While Brazil remains the epicenter of the current wave, Rio de Janeiro will begin opening its economy today.  Meanwhile in Europe, Spain, Italy, and the UK all reported their lowest number of new cases or deaths since early in the outbreak.

In the US, we have 1,859,693 confirmed cases and 106,927 deaths reported to date.  In a worrying sign, CA reported that their number of new cases has risen 11% in the last 5 days.   On the other side of the country, the NY and NJ numbers continue to improve as they are opening further.  The Congressional Budget Office released estimates Mondays that coronavirus will cost the US 3% of its economic growth (over the course of 10 years).

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board again.  So far Tuesday, European stocks are following suit with the major bourses each up 1-4% at midday.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to gap higher of 0.6%-0.7%.

There is no major economic news on Tuesday.   Earnings reports are also very light with only a few that could be considered major companies. On tap for the day are DBRL, DCI, and DKS before the open as well as CRWD and ZM after the close.

Once again, the bulls see nothing but blue skies and optimism.  They certainly continue to have the momentum and trend.  However, we still see big intraday swings remain on most days.  Keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits.  However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge.  Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. MAR, RCL, FAS, GRUB, DISH, ALGN, TLRY, HLF, JD, ADP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Twilight Zone

Twilight Zone

With protests growing violent over the weekend and many businesses closing such as WMT, TGT, & AAPL, I feel like we have entered the Twilight Zone seeing the US Futures pointing to a gap up open.  Tensions continue to rise between the US/China, a historic unemployment rate, and negative earnings growth, but the indexes charts currently suggest a bullish V-shaped bottom. 

Asian markets closed in the green across the board overnight after reporting better than expected factory activity.  European markets are mixed but mostly higher this morning, and the US Futures currently point to a bullish open ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Expect another wild and crazy week capped off by the Employment Situation report.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Morning Earnings Calendar, we have just over 30 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include ERJ and ENS.

Technically Speaking

Stocks finished the week on a mixed day of trading after the President announced that Hong Kong no longer enjoys the US special trade status.  He also mentioned that Chinese companies traded in the US would come under scrutiny for there accounting practices to protect US investors.  During the same press conference, we learned that the US has withdrawn from the World Health Organization.  Hundreds of WMT, TGT, AAPL, and other stores have once again closed, but this time it’s self-inflicted due to rioting and violent protests.  According to a new survey, global CFO’s have grown more negative on the economy, giving its worst rating in history.   They see companies taking another coronavirus big hit in 2020.  Virus blamed deaths in the US now top 106,000. 

With tensions between China and the US rising, widespread protesting closing down businesses, and lingering virus impacts, US Futures seem to be ignoring the situation pointing to a modest gap up at the open.  Analysts are beginning to suggest investors are dangerously downplaying the possible impacts as the US and China once again lock horns.  Today we will get the latest readings on PMI Manufacturing, ISM Mfg Index, and construction spending as if there was not enough for traders to digest this morning.  On Friday is the Employment Situation number that may well show 20% of American workers are unemployed, which would be a post WW2 high.  Hold on tight a stay focused on price action that could be as volatile as this weekend’s protests.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Protests Sweep Country

Friday was a day mostly of fear and waiting on a firestorm from the White House, only to realize it was nothing but a little hot wind.  After the China presser amounted to nothing but “We’ll take action to eventually eliminate Hong Kong’s special treatment” markets rallied hard up off the lows the last hour of the day.  At the close, the SPY was up 0.45%, the DIA flat at negative 0.02%, and the QQQ up strongly at +1.47% as tech issues rallied hardest off the non-event.  The VXX closed down to 33.13 while the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio fell slightly, but remains overbought at 85.29.  The 10-year bond yield fell to 0.653% and Oil (WTI) rallied yet again to $35.32/barrel. With that said about the day, it is also important to recognize that markets rose about 5-6% during May.

The big story this weekend was coast-to-coast protests and some riots. Some businesses and traffic have been temporarily disrupted in a large number of places.  The only major business responses have been that TGT (Minneapolis-based) and AAPL both closed stores, while AMZN closed distribution hubs located near protests.  These protests have mainly been peaceful dissent to racial injustice and killings of blacks by police.  But, some of the protesters have turned into rioters causing property damage, looting, injuries, and even a couple of deaths. 

Government responses have been declarations of curfews, unlawful assemblies, and no-go zones, as well as the use of tear gas, knight sticks, and rubber bullets.  There have been hundreds of arrests. Many states have also called out the National Guard.  Atty. Gen. Barr and President Trump claimed that rioters are “far-left extremists.”  So, on Sunday Trump declared ANTIFA to be terrorists.  However, there has been no evidence produced yet of any organized group organizing or leading riots locally, let along nationally. (Side note: This whole episode must give the Chinese leadership a belly laugh.  The US has denounced the Chinese for crack-downs, labeling protesters as terrorists, mass arrests, and employing similar tactics against public protests and riots over civil rights.)

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 6,290,758 confirmed cases and 374,335 deaths.  On Saturday India reported a record jump in new cases, extended its lockdown in “containment zones” through June 30, while also allowing retail, restaurant and religious buildings to open in the other parts of the country.  The EU adjusted its Steel Import Controls (the ones enacted in response to new US tariffs).  The new measures fall short of import quota cuts (as had been requested by European Steelmakers), but are aimed at prohibiting any stockpiling of foreign steel while European makers are not back to capacity. Finally, Russia claims to have an effective treatment drug for the virus (mentioning that the only other potentially-effective drug to their own is the GILD drug remdesivir).

In the US, we have 1,837,578 confirmed cases and 106,198 deaths reported to date. CNBC reports that AAPL data shows Americans are driving at almost the same rate they did prior to the shutdown (based on navigation map requests and geo-data from phones).  However, mass transit and restaurant bookings have barely recovered at all.  Hotel bookings are in between, having recovered about 35% of the reduction caused by the shutdown. 

An interesting tidbit from the supply chain.  Since the stimulus checks hit in the US, the demand for computers and PC components has skyrocketed.  Demand is as high now as at a normal December (Xmas season) and 25% higher than a normal May.  So, it seems the economic pain of the shutdown has been exaggerated and a bunch of that money is going straight to computer upgrades and purchases.  Combine this demand with a shipping bottleneck caused by port closures and the no passenger air flights (every passenger flight carries cargo in addition to people) and you get a May shortage of Motherboards, Graphics Cards, and Power Supplies (all sourced from China).  This should abate sometime in June as transport capacity works through the backlog.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board as May factory numbers overrode the US-China trade war fears.  However, European stocks are mixed, but mostly green so far today.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat and mixed, with the country preoccupied by the protests/riots and government responses.

Major economic news on Monday is limited to May Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and May ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am).  There are also no major earnings reports on Monday.

The bulls continue to have the momentum and trend, but big intraday swings continue to be the norm.  Keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits.  Above all, don’t chase or predict, and remain cautious about longer-term swing trades.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. PFE, ORCL, PANW, ENB, JNJ, SNAP, KHC, INTC, NDAQ, JNPR, ABBV. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

News Conference “on China.”

News Conference “on China.”
Trade War

After a bit of morning price volatility, the bulls resumed there march higher despite the jobless number that now affects 1 in 4 working Americans.  Then late in the day, the President announced a news conference “on China,” and the bears suddenly woke up, swinging the markets sharply lower into the close.  There are very little to no details on what will or will not be said or done in this new conference, so not surprisingly, the market is a bit apprehensive waiting for the next shoe to drop.  Also, facing another big day of economic data, traders have a lot to grapple with as we head into the weekend.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower with Hong Kong not surprisingly have the most significant bearish reaction to the new China law.  European markets are modestly lower across the board in response to the rising US-China tensions.  US Futures point to slightly lower open ahead of several economic reports and more comments from Jerome Powell.  Anything is possible, so plan carefully with an uncertain weekend approaching.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have 60 companies reporting results today, but looking through the list, we only CGC is particularly notable.

Technically Speaking

After a rather quick pop and drop crating some morning price volatility, the bulls regained control and began a steady climb.  After yesterday’s jobless number, we have nearly ¼ of working Americans standing in unemployment lines. However, the market seems to have absolutely no concern about unemployment choosing to focus on the hopes of recovery.  Then at the end of the day, the President announced a new conference on China, and suddenly the bears woke up, worried about the uncertainty of what happens next.  Countries around the world have including have joined in to chastise China’s new security law.  That may be the straw that broke the back of the recent cautious US approach to China.  At this time, there are very few details about what may or may not occur during this new conference, so naturally, the market is a bit on edge, making about anything is possible in the day ahead.

Although index trends remained bullish yesterday, price action left behind candle patterns raising the need for a little caution.  We also have a busy economic calendar today with International Trade, Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, and another speech from Jerome Powell.  Consider your risk carefully as we approach a weekend that may include new China-related uncertainties.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

China Presser and Morning Data

The bulls rallied all day Thursday (they love those big Jobless Claims numbers), right up until it was announced the President will hold a Friday press conference on China.  At that point, markets fell off the cliff the rest of the afternoon, closing lower.  For the day, SPY closed down 0.20% on a Shooting Star type candle, DIA was down 0.56% on a Dark Cloud Cover candle, and QQQ was flat at down 0.13% while leaving a high upper wick.  The VXX gained a bit to 34.48 and T2122 fell, but remains in overbought territory at 90.27. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.697% and Oil (WTI) also climbed to $33.56/barrel.

During the day, the President signed his Executive Order targeting social media (after being fact-checked by Twitter). His appointee Atty. Gen. Barr attended the press event to also say his Dept. will also sue social media firms (the timing must be purely coincidental).  While the President’s threats will have no practical short-term impact without legislation and court cases, the message did hit TWTR (- 4.5%) and FB (-1.6%) stock on the day. These events may also restart an interesting conversation in America on freedom of speech vs. censorship, facts vs. deception, viewer ignorance vs. editorial responsibility, and the use of government power for personal purposes.

Meanwhile over on Capitol Hill, the House passed a bill to ease the loan forgiveness rules of the PPP program.  The bill lets companies put less of the loan amount into payroll, extends the window when they can use the loan funds, and pushes back the date by which they must rehire workers in order to qualify for loan forgiveness.  The Senate has discussed similar measures and will likely pass a very similar bill.

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 5,931,867 confirmed cases and 362,613 deaths.  Spain began further easing on Friday.  France and Turkey also announced comprehensive openings to take place the first two days of June.  The UK joined the chorus as well, announcing it will begin opening bars and restaurants “under strict conditions” as of Monday.

In the US, we have had 1,768,608 confirmed cases and 103,341 deaths reported to date. Texas reported a 3.2% increase in new cases this week, twice the previous week’s rate and the increase was higher than the 2.9% increase in testing over the period.  Elsewhere UAL followed AAL, but taking a different tactic.  UAL will offer early retirement and buyouts to reduce their workforce, but similar goal of around a 30% staff reduction. It is also noteworthy that US corporations have raised $1 Trillion in the bond market in the last month with the Fed backstop reassuring corporate bond buyers.

Overnight, just like yesterday, Asian markets were mixed again as the US-China tension leads to trade war fears.  However, Europe stocks are red across the board so far today.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat and mixed, with the President’s China press conference later today. 10-year bond yields also plunged overnight on trade fear related to the China press conference.

Major economic news on Friday includes Apr. Core PCE, Apr. Trade Balance, Apr. Personal Spending, and Apr. Retail Sales (all at 8:30 am), May Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and Fed Chair Power speech (11 am).  Major earnings reports are limited to BIG, CIR, CGC, and SOL all before the open.

A lot of economic data comes before the open again today.  However, it is likely to be the China press conference (likely sanctions and raised rhetoric) that impacts markets most.  The bulls continue to have the momentum and trend, but intraday swings continue and Thursday’s candles show that there is uncertainly about the rally.  So, keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits.  Remember, it’s Friday so put some gains in your pocket and consider weekend hedges.  Above all, don’t chase or predict, and remain cautious about longer-term swing trades.

Ed

No Trade ideas for your watchlist on Friday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls Surge

The bulls surge at the end of the day with the financial and retail sectors sharply gaining ground as wall street hopes grow as business across the country begins to reopen.  Sadly the Beige Book report cited a different story with business leaders pessimistic about recovery and workers reluctant to return to their jobs.  Before the open today, we have a big data dump, including jobless claims with consensus suggesting more than two million joined the historic number of unemployed.

Asian markets closed mixed with Hong Kong moving lower after China pass new security measures cracking down on the country.  European markets see green across the board as the monitor escalating tensions between the US and China.  US Futures point to another bullish gap up open ahead of a busy day of earnings and economic data.  An extra dose of price volatility is likely this morning as we react to data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 87 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include DG, COST, ULTA, ANF, BURL, CM, CSIQ, DLTR, MOMO, NIO, JWN, OLLI, CRM, SAFM, SHOO, TD, & VMW.

Technically Speaking

For the 3rd day this week, the bulls charged forward on hopes of the country reopening its economy.  Interestingly, the Fed Beige Book said economic activity declined across the country, falling sharply in most regions.  It also cited that workers are reluctant to go back to their jobs due to safety concerns, child care, and the very generous unemployment benefits provided by the government.  The report also stated that business leaders were pessimistic about the potential pace of the recovery.  Tensions between the US and China are growing.  Last night Chana approved the new security measures for Hong Kong, although many countries have come out against the law as limiting free speech.  The US House yesterday sent a bill to the president’s desk to sanction China for human rights violations.  Hong Kong may lose its special status with the US, which could have ramifications for investors in the coming weeks.  Today we have big data dump on the economic calendar with Durable Goods, GDP, Jobless Claims, Home Sales & Petroleum Status.  Consensus suggests that more than 2-million Americans applied for unemployment last week even as the business tries to reopen across the country.   Boeing announced layoffs for nearly 7000 employees yesterday, and American Airlines plans a 30% reduction of management and administrative staff as the industry continues to struggle.

The Financial and Retail sectors had a very good day yesterday, pushing the indexes higher will in a late-day surge of buying.  The Dow has rallied more than 1000 points in just two trading days, and the SP-500 closed above its 200-day average for the first time since early March.  US Futures once again indicate a bullish open the suggesting a Dow gap up of more than 100 points ahead a big day of economic data.  I would not be surprised to see an extra dose of price volatility ahead of the market open.  The T2122 indicator continues to warn of an extreme overextended condition in the indexes. Still, the bulls seem to be in a relentless buying mood no matter what the numbers suggest about the economy.  Hang on tight anything is possible and be prepared for the possibility of profit-taking that could begin at any time.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Econ Data Plus Trade and TWTR Tension

After a 1% gap higher at the open and an immediate strong selloff, the bulls stepped in at 10:45 am and never looked back.  The rest of the day was a steady climb to recover the losses of the morning and close the day at the highs.  On the day, the SPY was up 1.48%, the DIA up 2.21%, and the QQQ up 0.55%.  VXX fell again to 33.15 and the T2122 rose again to a very overbought 98.11.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.685% and Oil (WTI) fell for a change, closing at $32.08/barrel.

During the day, BA announced they will lay off 7,000 workers this week, part of their plan to cut 10% of their workforce.  The cuts come on the same day BA restarts the production of its fiasco 737 Max plane and are major order cancellations the company blames on the virus.  In related news, the CEO of AAL told an investor conference they will not declare bankruptcy, because that would mean admitting defeat. However, AAL does plan a 30% reduction in staff.

In tech news, still furious over having his tweets fact-checked for a change, President Trump has lumped TWTR in with everything else he considers “fake news.”  So, he is expected to order a review of a law protecting online outlets against liability from any lies spread by users.  (I don’t know how that works exactly.  It was passed by Congress and signed by a President.  So, I’m not sure how a different President can order it changed.  Still, he is expected to sign the review order today.)  TWTR is obviously on the “enough lies” side of the argument, while FB is on the opposite side because they don’t want to check any of the posts made by their users.

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The other big non-economic story today is likely to be China.  After the close, the House sent a China sanctions bill to the White House for signature.  This comes on the same day Sec. of State Pompeo told Congress Hong Kong is not autonomous and no longer deserves special trade status.  Finally, overnight China ratified the new security law (ahead of schedule to spite the US) that has caused the latest uproar.  So, another round of trade war seems quite possible, if not likely.

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 5,813,289 confirmed cases and 357,896 deaths.  The ECB said they expect the Eurozone economy to contract 8-12% for 2020.  At the same time, their just proposed $827 billion stimulus fund has not been ratified (and will not be voted on for months) as it apparently has some opposition from countries fearing the tranfer of wealth from rich to poor countries (although notably not from the richest, Germany or France who had proposed the fund.)

In the US, we have 1,745,911 confirmed cases and 102,114 deaths reported to date. The Healthcare Cost Institute (an independent no-profit) released data Wed. showing that the number of daily deaths in the US between April 1 and now is 10% higher than the same days in previous years (2014-2019).  On the legal side, President Trump and other Republicans have attacked and threatened lawsuits over the idea of mail-in ballots.  Their claim is that it would increase the threat of voter fraud, while the counter-claim is that mail-in voting has been in-place for centuries in the US for many groups.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again as the US-China tension leads to trade war fears.  However, Europe stocks are green across the board so far today.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed, with the President’s threat keeping the QQQ  red while the S&P looks at a half percent gap up and the DIA at almost a percent gap up at the open.

Major economic news on Thursday includes Apr. Durable Goods, Q1 GDP, and Weekly Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), Apr. Pending Home Sales (10 am), Oil Inventories (11 am), and a FOMC Speaker (Williams at 11 am). Major earnings reports include ANF, BURL, CSIQ, DG, DLTR, MOMO, SAFM, SHOO, and TECD before the open.  COST, CRM, DELL, DXC, JWN, MOD, MRVL, TCOM, ULTA, VMW, and WSM all report after the close.

A lot of economic data comes before the open today. It seems the bulls are in control, but US-China and TWTR-Trump tensions could dampen the mood of traders.  Keep in mind that gap and fade (and yesterday re-rally) have been the norm. So, volatility remains the market constant.  Keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits.  Above all, don’t chase or predict, and remain cautious about longer-term swing trades.

Ed

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: PLAY, CAKE, PENN, MU, SHAK, VALE, AAP, AG, SLV, OKE, ASML. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Breached Benchmarks

Breached Benchmarks

In Tuesday’s session, the SP-500 briefly breached the 3000 benchmark and the Dow topped 25,000.  However, at the close of the day, there was a bit of uncertainty as to the bears defend these levels, and the tech sector left behind a bearish dark cloud cover pattern.  The bulls squelched those closing concerns suggesting yet another overnight gap bringing the 2-day rally in Dow of more than 850 points just in the morning gaps!  The question now is will there be follow-through buying or will it attract profit-takers and bears?

Asian markets closed mixed as US/China tensions grow.  European markets, however, don’t seem at all concerned this morning with their indexes approaching 2% increases this morning.  US futures point another substantial gap up open reaching well above yesterday’s high prints ahead of a light day on the economic calendar and earnings reports.  Buckle up for another wild day in the market.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump Day earnings calendar, we have 64 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include UHAL, ADSK, BMO, BGFV, BOX, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, RL, RY, TOL, VIPS & WDAY.

Technically Speaking

Yesterday’s gap up and run pulled back, leaving behind some concerning candle patterns; however, the futures once again point to a substantial gap up.  The bullishness pushed the indexes through 3000, and the Dow breached 25,000 during the day.  Although they failed to hold these levels into the close, today’s morning gap will recover the benchmark levels with a substantial cushion.  According to the news reports, the bullishness is due to optimism about the economy reopening.  Once again, it would seem possible the largest price move of the day may occur in the overnight session.  Reports that COVID-19 related hospitalizations on the rise in several states continue to raise concerns about the second wave of infections.  Yesterday’ the US death toll topped 100,000, but the only thing the market seems to be in infected with is a ravenous desire to buy risk overnight.  Hum?  The T2122 indicator continues to signal an over-extended condition, but on a positive, the Absolute Breadth Index finally broke through the downtrend.  That would suggest we finally see a broader-based rally.

At the close yesterday, the QQQ left behind a bearish dark cloud cover pattern creating a little uncertainty as the trading day wound down.  However, this morning the morning gap suggests a test of all-time highs in the tech sector remains viable.  The SPY found itself unable to hold the 200-day moving average at the close yesterday, yet this morning we are gapping above yesterday’s high.  Once again, traders could easily find themselves influenced to chase into the morning gap with the fear of missing out.  Remember, big gaps can, at times, attract profit-takers and bring out the bears.  Watch the price action closely after the open to make sure you see follow-though buying before jumping.  Look before you leap, so to speak.  If you have long positions with nice gains as I currently hold, it may be wise to bank some of the gains consider the Dow 2-day rally of about 850 points at the open today. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug