The tug-of-war continues between the bulls hoping for a spring recovery and the bear’s concerns of the business impacts getting through a severe pandemic winter. Infection rates hit a new record yesterday, and at the same time, the Treasury has decided to end some programs in the CARES act by the end of the year, drawing criticism from the FED. Treasury yields are falling this morning in reaction. As the weekend and a short trading week due to the holiday, traders will have some tough decisions to make as they plan their risk forward.
Asian markets closed on Friday mixed but with The SHANGHAI and HIS modest posting gains. European markets are trying to shake off virus concerns this morning, showing modest gains across the board. The U.S. trade mixed but are well off the overnight lows as they try to look past the Treasury decision, infection numbers, and more state restrictions ahead of the holiday. Expect the news-driven sensitivity to continue.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a lighter day this Friday with less than 20 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include BKE, DXLG, FL, HP, HIBB, & JKS.
News & Technicals’
The Treasury Dept. is looking to extend a handful of the Federal Reserve programs used to get the markets through the pandemic’s early days. However, they have also decided to end several other programs that expire at the end of the year. The action has drawn some negative feedback from the Fed, which believes the programs should continue. A decision coming on the same day that the U.S set a new record infection rate of more than 185,000 new cases reported. Treasury yields are falling this morning in reaction. Another disagreement is raising eyebrows in treating the infection as the WHO urges doctors not to use Gilead’s remdesivir, breaking ranks with the FDA, stating “no evidence” it improves survival rates. In other news, both Pfizer and BioNTech have requested emergency authorization from the FDA for their vaccines. I suspect the tug-of-war will continue between the bulls hoping for a spring recovery and the bears looking at the impacts of rough winter.
Yesterday’s early selloff found enough bulls to defend the morning lows but fell a bit short of inspiring confidence. The bullish index trends still exist, as does the short-term extended appearance of the charts. With a very light day on the economic calendar and just a handful of notable earnings reports, we can expect the market to be highly sensitive to the news cycle today. As this tug-of-war continues, plan your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend ahead of the Thanksgiving shutdown.
Stocks ground sideways all morning Thursday. However, an announcement from Senate Democratic Leader Schumer saying that Senate Majority Leader McConnell had agreed to resume stimulus negotiations helped lead to an afternoon rally. All 3 major indices closed near their highs as a result. On the day, DIA was up 0.19%, SPY up 0.42%, and QQQ up 0.78%. The QQQ also managed to print a Bullish Engulfing candle on the day. VXX lost a percent to 18.64 and T2122 fell a tad, but remains in the overbought territory at 84.25. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 0.836% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.82/barrel.
After the close, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin asked the Fed to extend some emergency programs for another 90 days, but to end other programs. The programs he asked the Fed to extend include short-term loans to businesses as well as backstop guarantees for Payroll Protection Program loans. The two main programs he asked the Fed to kill are the purchase of corporate bonds and the direct “Main Street Lending” program targeted toward small and medium-sized businesses. With the killing of a couple of programs, Treasury has asked the Fed to return $455 billion (ostensibly so it can be spent elsewhere). While the impact on markets is as yet unknown, stocks did rally hard at the time the programs were first announced.
The other major overnight news is that as expected, PFE and BTNX will file for an “Emergency Use” Waiver for their vaccine today. The terminology is unclear to me (how can it be an emergency use, if it is a preventative medicine and not a treatment), but approval is expected to be nothing but a formality. The consensus is that MRNA will follow closely behind PFE/BTNX in requesting the same authorized usage next week.
On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US saw another spike to 192,186 cases and 2,065 deaths on Thursday. This surge has raised the US totals to 12,072,560 confirmed cases and 258,354 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 169,813 while the average deaths rose to 1,398/day. All 50 states are have reported at least a 10% increase in cases since last week. 33 states have reported at least a 10% increase in covid-19 deaths since last week. New local and statewide restrictions continue to be implemented coast-to-coast mostly including mask mandates, curfews, and stay at home advisories.
Globally, the numbers rose to 57,382,260 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,368,493 deaths. Overnight a panel of WHO scientists have advised doctors to stop using Remdesivir from GILD to treat covid-19. The panel found in a study that there is no evidence that drug improves survival rates or reduces the need for ventilation. This comes the same night as the US FDA has approved Remdesivir for use in combination with LLY drug Baricitinib to treat covid-19.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned toward the green side. Thailand (+1.45%) led gainers by a wide margin while India (-0.92%) led the losses (also by a wide margin). All-in-all, most Asian exchanges were modestly positive on the day. However, in Europe, so far today we see green across the board. Smaller exchanges seem to have fared better, but the DAX (+0.47%), FTSE (+0.48%), and CAC (+0.47%) are indicative. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed, but flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.16% open, the SPY implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% modest gain at the open.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to a single Fed speaker (Kaplan at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports are also very limited with FL reporting before the open.
With more positive vaccine news, not economic or earnings, and the Administration signaling they no longer see as bad of a problem, you might expect a strong rally. However, Thursday was the worst day ever in terms of new cases and the worst day since April in terms of deaths. And it will be several months before vaccines are widely available, let alone administered in two doses per patient (one month apart). So, the realities don’t seem to match. It is unclear which reality Mr. Market will live in today.
Remember that it’s Friday…pay day. So, take some money off the table or at least consider hedging yourself ahead of the weekend. As always, maintain discipline to your trading rules, don’t chase and respect trend, support/resistance, and price action.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TWLO, WIMI, TUP, ETSY, NBR, TMX, FCX, PSXP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Hopes of a vaccine spurred recovery as infection and death rates surge across the country, creating a challenging price action tug-of-war between the bulls and bears. Indexes remain in bullish trends, but the bearish engulfing candle patterns left behind in yesterday’s news-driven whipsaw raise considerable uncertainty. On the one hand, traders don’t want to miss out on a recovery rally, while on the other hand, the risk to price support and key moving averages is considerable. Adept day-traders seem to have the upper hand in this environment as each news report can quickly shift sentiment.
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight in reaction to the U.S. selloff. European markets are moving lower across the board this morning. The U.S. futures currently suggest a modestly bearish open ahead of Jobless Claim, Philly Fed MFG., and Existing-Home Sales numbers. Toss in earnings reports, vaccine and shutdown news, and anything is possible by the open.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have just over 50 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include BJ, CSIQ, INTU, M, NTES, OPRA, POST, QIWI, ROST, WSM, & WDAY.
News & Technicals’
The bulls tried hard to break above the high of the big gap candle, but concerning pandemic, news energized the bears during the afternoon session reversing the early bullishness. With more than 170,000 new infections reported yesterday and the U.S. death toll topping 250,000, the concern is understandable. New York and Boston announced yesterday they schools will go back into shutdown as states across the nation impose restrictions in an effort the combat this invisible enemy. All the deficit spending to keep the economy going has pushed the global debt to new record levels. According to the IIF, the global debt will reach 277 trillion by year-end, and among advanced nations, debt has surged above 432% of GDP. I suspect the massive deficit spending is far from over, with the pandemic surging into the winter months. After the bell yesterday, NVDA reported better than expected results, but the stock moved lower after the CEO guided lower in the coming quarters.
With good vaccine news simultaneously as rising infections, there is a challenging tug-of-war amongst the bulls and bears. In this news-driven environment, day traders seem to have the upper hand while swing traders find it difficult dealing with the wild overnight reversals. During such uncertain price action, trader’s accounts can and will get chopped to pieces if you overtrade in this environment. Technically speaking, the indexes remain in bullish trends, but the bearish engulfing candles left behind yesterday and substantial distance to price support levels will require a substantial tolerance to risk. Of course, another approach is to remember that cash is a position that protects your capital should you deem the risk too high.
Markets started the day flat in the large-caps and a slight gap-down in the QQQ. After a sideways grind in the morning, there was a strong afternoon selloff. This left both large-cap indices printing large Bearish Engulfing candles and all 3 major indices closed at the lows to give us large black ugly candles. The VXX gained almost 3% to 18.84 and T2122 fell a little but remains well into the overbought territory at 87.22. 10-year bond yields were flat at 0.868% and Oil (was up half a percent to $41.66/barrel.
In miscellaneous news, LUV sent furlough warnings to about 15% of their mechanics as stalled talks continue with the pilot and flight attendant unions. The company is asking employees to take a 10% pay cut. Meanwhile, GOOG announced that their employee productivity is back above pre-pandemic levels, so they have adjusted well.
Wednesday the Business Roundtable called for more stimulus to save the economy. Jamie Dimon of JPM called the amounts involved “chump change” and at the same time said it was critical to avoid an economic crash. At the same time, the Institute for International Finance reported that the virus has pushed global debt to a record $277 trillion with “advanced nations” debt reaching 432% of GDP in Q3 (up 50% from 2019 Q3) and “emerging economies” only a bit worse at 248% of GDP. And all this comes as the US Senate also went on holiday recess until Nov. 30. It did this without a vote on another stimulus package. So, either the Senate is not concerned or they are too divided to decide.
The virus continues to rage as the US saw another 173,768 cases and 1,964 deaths on Wednesday. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,876,240 confirmed cases and 256,311 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 164,996 while the average number of deaths rose to 1,266/day. 47 states are have reported at least a 10% increase in cases since last week. 33 states have reported at least a 10% increase in covid-19 deaths since last week. New local and statewide restrictions continue to be implemented coast-to-coast mostly including mask mandates, curfews, and stay at home suggestions/requests. This comes as Admiral Giroir (White House Task Force) told reporters “this is not crying wolf, it is an absolutely dangerous situation…I lose sleep over where are right now.”
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again but leaned to the red side. Malaysia (-1.31%) and India (-1.29%) led the losses while Indonesia (+0.66%) and Shenzhen (+0.63%) led gainers. However, in Europe, so far today we see red across the board. Smaller exchanges seem to be worse off, but the DAX (-0.87%), FTSE (-0.72%), and CAC (-0.70%) are indicative. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat to a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.17% open, the SPY implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.28% modest gain at the open.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Nov. Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Oct. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a Fed Speaker speaks twice (Mester at 8:30 am and 12:35 pm). Major earnings reports include BERY, BJ, M, and NTES before the open. Then after the close, BECN, BEST, INTU, POST, ROST, WSM, and WDAY report.
With no more major vaccine news, economic news may have the chance to move markets this morning. Just remember that for every push, there will be a reaction back the other way. So, don’t get caught up in FOMO (on either side). Remember there will be a chance for price to come to you soon. Stick to your discipline, keep taking profits (goals/targets) on the way, and work your trade plan. Consistency beats the occasional homerun every time. Focus on the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SOLO, CRBP, JCI, NKLA, PLUG, DKNG, YUMC, QCOM. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The disappointing retail number energized the bears just enough to fill Monday’s vaccine news-driven gap. However, the bulls quickly went back to work as the push for the 30,000 Dow target resumes. We’re not going to allow the details of a suffering economy, unemployment, or a new record daily pandemic death rate deter the bulls from this mission. With the holiday shutdown just around the corner, they will have to work quickly; as volume begins to decline and trading floors start to clear.
Asian markets closed the day mixed but mostly higher as Japan’s autos slip and the dollar weakens. European markets trade with modest gains across the board this morning, extending the vaccine rally. The U.S. futures point to a bullish open ahead of earnings and a possible market-moving housing starts number.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the hump day earnings calendar, we have over 30 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include BILI, CPRT, JACK, LB, LOW, NUAN, NVDA, SCVL, TGT, TJX, & ZTO.
News & Technical’s
It would appear that the surge in pandemic infections has already started to affect retail sales rising just .3% last month vs. the 1.6% gain last month. However, after a sharp but brief selloff to fill the Monday gap, bulls went back to work defending the lows trying to get back on track toward a 30,000 Dow. According to Johns Hopkins numbers, the U.S. set a new national record daily for pandemic deaths toping 1700. Emergency approval of the first home-based Covid test costing $50 will now be made available, a good sign considering the new public restrictions states have begun to enforce. You may soon see the Boeing 737 Max that has been grounded for nearly 2-years back in the sky with the expected approval by the FAA later today. ON the earings retail front, LOW earnings fall short of expectations, and the stock is indicated to decline more than 7% at the open. On the other have TGT topped expectations surging nearly 2.5% in premarket trading.
Filling the Monday gap and seeing the bulls work hard to defend its price support is a sign institutions will continue to push for the 30,000 Dow target. I suspect we will see this target reached before we take a break for Thanksgiving, even though indicators continue to suggest an extreme short-term overbought condition. Pandemic numbers don’t seem to matter, and disappointing retail results won’t stand in the way. Remember to consider your risk as we quickly approach the holiday when volume typically declines sharply.
Markets gapped down at the open Tuesday and then printed indecisive candles in all 3 major indices. The large-caps both printed white Doji type candles while the QQQ printed a black Spinning Top type candle. On the day, QQQ fell 0.32%, SPY fell 0.54% and DIA fell 0.56%. The VXX also fell a percent to 18.30 and T2122 dropped just a touch, but remains deep in overbought territory at 97.05. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.87% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.36/barrel.
A couple days after MRNA reported initial efficacy of 94.5% for their vaccine (95 test subjects), PFE and BNTX announced that additional analysis has shown their vaccine is 95% effective (170 test subjects) and they now have enough safety data to file for an emergency use waiver from the FDA within days. They report that there were 8 infections among those who got the vaccine (versus 162 among those who got a placebo) after 2 doses. So far, no “serious” safety concerns have been reported two months after the first administration. (There were 2% of recipients who had severe reactions to the first dose and just under 4% who reported fatigue after the first and/or second dose. However, those were not deemed major safety concerns. The typical 2-year study of long-term safety effects will be waived given the 1.3 million people who have already died from the virus worldwide.) This news is likely to buoy PFE, BTNX, MRNA (because they have the same class of vaccine), and the market as a whole (including Oil).
TGT crushed estimates in its early morning report. LOW came in short of estimates. BA is set to jump on both vaccine news and a Reuters report that the FAA has recertified the 737 Max to fly in the US again (after a 20-month grounding).
On the virus front, the US saw another 157,000+ cases and over 1,600 deaths on Tuesday. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,697,469 confirmed cases and 254,291 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 160,172 while the average deaths rose to 1,188/day. Again Tuesday, we saw new restrictions, partial lockdowns, and Governors/Municipalities begging people to take mitigation measures (wear masks, distance, and avoid gatherings, especially indoors) across the country. The FDA also approved the first self-test for home use from unlisted company Lucira.
Globally, the numbers rose to 56,069,908 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,346,103 deaths. Asia is starting to see another surge as even Japan and South Korea are seeing record numbers of cases the last week. Southern Australia is locking down again (6 days this time) after a new cluster has been seen. In China, the government declared they have found their own vaccine is safe and effective. The difference of the Chinese vaccine versus the two in the US is that the Chinese version only requires standard refrigeration and is shelf-stable for up to 3 years. However, the numbers from their study were not provided and the study hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed. In Europe, there are first signs that the lockdowns started a couple of weeks ago are helping to plateau new case counts.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned to the green side. Japan (-1.11%) led the few losers, while Taiwan (+1.33%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led gainers. So far today we see a modest green move across the board in Europe. The FTSE (+0.29%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of European bourses as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest green open. The DIA is implying a 0.47% gap up, the SPY implying a 0.35% gap, and the QQQ implying a 0.17% modest gain at the open.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Williams at 12:15 pm, Bullard at 1:20 pm, and Bostic at 5 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AVYA, LOW, TGT, and TJX before the open. After the close, KEYS, LB, NVDA, and UGI report.
The bulls are likely to run today on positive vaccine news. However, don’t get caught up in FOMO. Remember that price moves in a zig-zag pattern. So, don’t be the last one buying the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. Focus on discipline, taking profits (goals/targets) on the way, and work your trade plan. Consistency trumps the occasional homerun every time. Stick to the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ICPT, WLL, DKNG, GTHX, MUR, DVAX, OXY, CPE, WFC, APA, OKE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The vaccine news-driven rally pushed the DJ-30 to a new record high and finished the day within striking distance of 30,000. As the bulls try to price in a pandemic recovery, 22 states have added restrictions that could have significant business impacts ahead, as infection rates continue to surge throughout the country. While I believe the institutions will not miss out on achieving a Dow 30,000 headline, the path may be challenging in this very news-driven extended market environment. Plan carefully.
Asian markets closed overnight with modest gains after an initial jump higher in reaction to vaccine news. European markets are currently edging lower this morning, and the U.S futures point to a lower open ahead of several potentially market-moving economic reports. The wild price volatility is likely to continue as investors grapple with holiday restrictions and shutdowns.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have more than 30 companies stepping up to report quarterly results this Tuesday. Notable reports include NIO, HD, WMT, KSS, LZB & SE.
News & Technicals’
The Dow hit new record highs yesterday, rallying 470 points hopeful vaccine news closing the day just 50 points below 30,000. Unfortunately, at the same time, the pandemic surge has inspired 22 to add new restrictions likely to impact the overall economy. While the bulls try to price the market for the hopeful better days ahead, the short-term impacts could be challenging to grapple with, keeping the price action volatile. Tesla shares jump in aftermarket trading after its addition to the S&P 500 average. Shared of Home Depot are dipping this morning despite a strong earnings report. Amason Pharmacy has launched, allowing its customers to order prescriptions online. Shares of AMZN are modestly higher on the news. Futures currently indicate a lower open ahead of several potential market-moving economic reports. With the Dow so close to 30,000, it hard to imagine the institutions will miss the opportunity to claim that headline. I’m guessing the hats are already on the floor of the exchanges, just waiting for the photo opportunity. Of course, pandemic, political, and economic news could make it a challenging and choppy process.
Technically speaking, there really is not much to say except the bulls are in control, and the indexes appear extremely extended in the short-term. While I believe the institutions will not miss the opportunity to test 30,000 the path, there may not be a straight one. Odds of fast intraday whipsaw and full overnight reversals remain high in this very emotionally charged market. Plan your risk carefully and guard yourself against chasing into already extended stocks.
Large-caps gapped higher Monday on the news of the MRNA vaccine 94% (first look) effectiveness report. After early follow-through, that market vacillated the rest of the day except for a strong surge the last 5 minutes. As a result, both large caps printed white Hammer type candles and the QQQ printed a large-body white candle. On the day, DIA was up 1.67%, SPY up 1.25%, and QQQ up 0.78%. The VXX lost another 2% to 18.65 and T2122 rose to extremely overbought at 99.03. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.909% and Oil (WTI) was up over 3% to $41.44/barrel.
After the close Monday it was announced that TSLA will be joining the S&P500 in December. The CEOs of both FB and TWTR will face Senate Republicans on Tuesday in a session that will likely focus on perceived “silencing conservatives.” However, they may not get any quarter from the Democrats, who are likely to hammer them over not being more restrictive on lies and misinformation
On the virus front, the spread continues unchecked. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,540,461 confirmed cases and 252,684 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 158,363 while the average number of deaths rose to 1,170/day. Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to rise, climbing to over 73,000 on Monday. In response, new restrictions and partial lockdowns continue from coast to coast as states continue to have to act on their own to control outbreaks.
Globally, the numbers rose to 55,466,741 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,334,671 deaths. New restrictions and lockdowns are taking place in Europe as well, even as countries that locked down a couple weeks ago (such as Germany) are starting to report progress in getting new case numbers to plateau.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Singapore (+1.11%), and India (+0.74%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.89%) paced the losers with other exchanges showing modest moves. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean heavily red so far today. The FTSE (-1.12%), DAX (-0.27%), and CAC (-0.29%) are relatively typical across the continent. However, there are a couple of gainers such as Greece (+0.55%). As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a lower open on the large caps, with DIA implying a -0.59% and SPY implying a -0.46% open. The NASDAQ is implying a modest open to the up side at +0.25%.
The major economic news for Tuesday includes Oct. Retail Sales, Oct. Export Price Index, and Oct. Import Price Index (all at 8:30 am), Oct. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Sept. Business Inventories (10 am), and 2 Fed Speakers (Bostic and Daily both at noon). Major earning releases include ARMK, HD, KSS, SE, and WMT before the open. There are no major earnings announcements after the close.
WMT and HD posting beats this morning is helping futures. However, the worsening virus conditions and local/state mitigation measures are sure to continue to give volatility. Big tech names may get beaten up as FB and TWTR take their turn in the shooting gallery today. So, even with positive trends and the recent good vaccine news to help bulls, be careful.
Remember that price moves in a zig-zag pattern. Don’t be the last one buying on the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. Keep locking in your profits, maintain your discipline, and work your trade plan. Stick to the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ESNT, SHOO, AEO, MFC, KNSL, DAR, ERIE, WING. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The bulls are undoubtedly in charge, or could this be irrational exuberance as the DIA and IWM leap to new record highs and states impose economic restrictions on the holidays just around the corner. One thing for sure, there seems to be no shortage of traders willing to chase prices higher with little regard to risk. The T2122 indicator indicates an extreme short-term overbought condition, so stay focused on price action for any signs of a pullback. Also, keep in the possibility of overnight reversals as you plan your risk and avoid chasing stocks already extended with the fear of missing out.
Asian markets were sharply higher overnight in reaction to signing a massive trade deal with 14 Asian countries. European markets are decidedly bullish this morning as vaccine hopes continue to inspire hopes of recovery. U. S. futures continue to leap higher as the DIA and IWM look to open at new record highs while infection rates and hospitalizations notch new records as well.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a rather large week of earnings kicking it off with more than 70 companies fessing up to results this Monday. Notable reports include JD, ACM, FUV, BIDU, CSPR, GAN, KRUS, PANW, SDC, SOHU, & TSN.
News & Technicals’
China and 14 other Asian-Pacific countries signed the world’s largest trade agreement over the weekend. According to analysts, economic benefits are modest and would take years to materialize. Texas and Washington set new Covid records this weekend as Midwest states as the Dakota’s and Nebraska set the largest daily increases per capita. As states across the country implement restrictions with severe potential economic impacts, the market continues to surge focused on the hopeful vaccines. Though some point to a possible bubble forming, it has done nothing to dissuade traders from buying up stocks even as P/E ratio’s swell and prices leap toward new record highs. How much longer that can continue is anyone’s guess but, it would be wise for traders to be mindful of the substantial risks with just a pullback to support.
Technically speaking, the indexes appear very extended, and the T2122 indicator is registering an extreme short-term overbought condition even as the futures point to another gap higher this morning. The DIA and IWM will break out to new record highs at the open today, with the SPY not far behind, assuming the futures hold on to the overnight bullishness. Plan your risk carefully as price volatility remains high in this wildly energetic and emotionally charged news-driven environment.
The market gapped about two-thirds of a percent higher Friday at the open. From there, we saw a sideways grind in all three major indices until an afternoon rally took off. Profit taking the last 15 minutes of the day closed markets off their highs, but it was still a white candle day in all 3 of the major indices. The QQQ printed an indecisive Spinning Top type candle while the DIA printed something that could be called a Morning Star signal if you squint. For the day QQQ closed up 0.88%, SPY up 1.38%, and DIA up 1.41%. The VXX lost 6% to close at 19.08 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) shot up back deep into overbought territory at 94.70. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.898% and Oil (WTI) fell two and a half percent to $40.12/barrel.
Early Monday, MRNA announced that its vaccine candidate was 94% effective against Covid-19 according to the initial look at 54 cases. As has been mentioned previously, this does not speak to the safety of the vaccine and it is based on a small sample size. However, markets are likely to jump on this news at least as confirmation of the PFE vaccine news from a week or so ago. At most, this is the second source of a vaccine against the virus, but this one too requires strict extreme low-temperature storage requirements.
In other business news, on Sunday AAL announce dit is slashing the number of flights between the US and UK in December due to weak demand brought on by the virus surge in both countries. Early Monday, PNC announced it will buy the US operations of Spanish bank BBVA. This $11.6 billion deal would be the second-largest bank merger of all time.
On the virus front, the spread continues unchecked. Friday the US had the worst day of any country since the beginning of the pandemic and had a new case count (188,000) almost 2.5 times higher than our worst day during the summer surge. This raised the US totals to 11,367,214 confirmed cases and 251,901 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 152,136 while the average deaths rose to 1,156/day. 45 states saw an increase of more than 10% in new case counts week-to-week with 17 of those seeing an increase of more than 50% in the period. 4 states saw a small increase (up less than a 10% week-on-week) and on SC reported a reduction (but that is believed to be a reporting glitch with their state’s data). This comes as many states are enacting new lockdown and restrictions.
Globally, the numbers rose to 54,936,761 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,326,265 deaths. With lockdowns in place in many parts of Europe for the last couple of weeks, there is starting to be a little better news. Germany reported last night that they are seeing the first signs of infection rates flattening. Meanwhile, the spread is picking up steam in Asia as Japan reported 3 consecutive record-high case count days,
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Australian markets were paused at the open due to a data issue, but managed to recover. Taiwan (+2.10%), Japan (+2.05%), and South Korea (+1.97%) led the gainers. There were no losers although New Zealand markets were closed. In Europe, we see a very similar picture so far today. The only red is from Denmark (-0.90%), while the rest of the continent followed Asia higher. Among the 3 major bourses, FTSE is up 1.61%, DAX up 1.35%, and CAC up 2.24% as of mid-day. These are typical of the rest of the indices across Europe. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to strong gaps higher in the large-caps. The DIA is implying a 1.75% gap up and the SPY is implying a 1.19% pop higher at the open. The NASDAQ is implying a flat open with the QQQ at -0.04% as of now.
The major economic news for Monday is limited to Nov. NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and 2 Fed Speakers (Daily at 1:45pm and Clarida at 2 pm). Major earning releases include ACM, JD, PANW, and TSN before the open. After the close, BIDU, IQ, and BEKE report.
The MRNA vaccine news was expected, but very welcome nonetheless. Futures show we are going to get a pop out of the news and maybe a resumption of rotations out of the lockdown tech names. Remember not to chase the moves that you have missed. Fear of missing out can be deadly for a trading account. Keep in mind that the market moves in a zig-zap pattern. Don’t be the last one buying on the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. So, keep locking in profits, maintain discipline, and working your plan. Stick to your trading rules, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BP, JETS, UPWK, EVRI, KO, TGI, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it. 
