On a brutal day in the markets, stocks gapped lower Tuesday, roller-coastered in a 1% range and then sold off into the close.  All 3 major indices closed near the lows with the QQQ sitting on its 50sma and both large-caps not far above their own.  On the day QQQ lost 4.81%, SPY lost 2.73%, and DIA lost 2.25%.  Oddly, the VXX also lost ground, closing at 28.28 and T2122 dropped hard to 6.03 (deep into the oversold territory).  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 0.68% and Oil (WTI) lost over 7% to close at $36.87/barrel.

In trading news, there has been much market talk recently about the impact of “Robinhood traders.”  Over the weekend Bloomberg reported a clue found in perplexing and worrisome options activity.  It appears (but isn’t known for sure) that retail (stuck at home) momentum traders have been piling into options causing over-sized moves…particularly in the high-flying high-tech names.  This inference is drawn from large volumes coming from small contract lot trades.  For example, CRM call open interest more than doubled on the day after its earnings release.  Another example is AMZN whose average daily call volume has spiked to the highest since the late 1990s.  The same is true across all the major FAANG names.  Finally, retail brokerages like AMTD, ETFC, SCHW, and IBKR have all reported record numbers of transactions.  The implication is that this may be a virus effect, but can also be a signal of irrational exuberance that has proceeded previous crashes.

Last night, AZN has paused its phase 3 vaccine trial in the UK after an unexpected and unexplained illness in a test subject.  Just to group the vaccine stories, PFE has been leaking that they believe their vaccine candidate may be ready to submit for emergency approval (prior to testing completion) in the US by late October.  However, that does not mean it would then be available widely or perhaps at all for quite a while beyond that point.

Last Weekend, articles in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s said that freezers are the new hot commodity in the virus fight.  It seems the 2 vaccines furthest into Phase 3 testing in the US (from PFE and MRNA) both have strict storage needs.  One of them must be kept below -50 Fahrenheit (PFE) and the other must be kept at -5 Fahrenheit (MRNA).  Obviously, these temperature demands require high-end freezers and will reduce the amount that can be stored, the locations where they can be stored (freezer capacities), and even how they can be transported.  Given all these logistical hurdles, some experts were claiming that even best case there would be nothing beyond a paper rollout of these vaccines (even if everything goes perfectly in testing) until at least late Q1 2021.

However, it is worth noting that later vaccine candidates (like those from AZN and JNJ) are expected to have far less stringent temperature requirements.  As far as the vaccine Russia recently released, it can be freeze-dried.  This means it can be shipped and stored at room temperatures.  However, immunology experts say this also is an indication that the Russian vaccine is likely to be less effective.  (They guessed it might be 40% or less effective at producing antibodies with an even lower percent of users developing any significant immunity.)  Still, it’s available now and can be shipped/stored easily.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,514,376 confirmed cases and 193,536 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases has fallen to 38,101.  Meanwhile, average new deaths has also fallen to 737.  San Diego State and West Virginia are the most recent colleges to move to virtual classes only as 400 cases were found at the CA school, University of Tennessee announced 600 cases (especially among fraternities) and West Virginia University had 377 cases before moving to virtual.  On the bright side, Iowa has resumed athletic practices presumably in anticipation of a positive revote after political pressure on the B1G to restart fall sports seasons.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board as traders followed the US lead.  Shenzhen took the biggest hit (-3.22%) but losses were widespread with Japan, Shanghai, Korea and others all losing more than a percent.  In Europe, so far today markets are in the exact opposite is true.  There is green across the board with the big 3 bourses up strongly.  FTSE is up 0.76%, DAX up 0.86%, and a CAC up 0.38%. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a gap higher (bull trap?) that includes big divergence.  The QQQ is implying an open up 1.30%.  Meanwhile, the SPY is looking toward a 0.50% gap up and the DIA just a 0.25% gap higher.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is July JOLTS (10 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include AEO, HDS, and NAV before the open.  After the close GME and RH report.

Volatility reigns as a much-needed correction has or is taking place. Remember that you do not need to trade every day to be successful. So pick your spots. That said, as always, follow the trend that fits with your trading horizon, stick to your rules, and always lock-in those profits as you go.

Ed

Rick is out with his son and new grandbaby. So, no new trade ideas for Wednesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down slightly and for the first time in months, the bears roared all day. This gave us the worst session since early June.  However, despite the ugly black candles, all three major indices did close up off the lows.  On the day, QQQ was down 5.07%, SPY was down 3.44%, and DIA was down 2.70%.  The VXX was up dramatically to 31.71 and T2122 dropped dramatically back to 16.67 (into the oversold territory).  10-year bond yields fell to 0.636% as money bid-up the safety trade and Oil (WTI) was off a bit to $41.28/barrel.

During the day chipmakers took a particular beating.  This came after news that China is implementing a broad range of policies aimed to develop a Chinese semiconductor industry.  While such an effort has been underway for some time, Chinese chips have always been decades behind their western counterparts. However, recently China made a bigger than expected step, significantly closing the gap with Western semiconductor performance. This seems to have given them the confidence to go all-in on a so-called third generation of chips aimed at being the equal of NVDA, AMD INTC, AVGO, and QCOM products by 2025.  All those western chip stocks were down hard on the day, though it is impossible to tell what portion of their loss was due to the overall market and how much was due to this news. It might be interesting to note that all western companies actually use TSM (in Taiwan) and Samsung (in Korea) to manufacturer their chips.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,335,653 confirmed cases and 191,060 deaths.  New cases rose back to about 3,000 above the 7-day average of 42,000.  Meanwhile deaths were also a couple hundred above the average at 1,094.  JNJ reported that one of their potential vaccine candidates prevented severe illness in a small group of hamsters, but did cause side effects such as weight loss.  This is the same candidate JNJ will begin a Phase 3 human testing program on later this month.

Globally, the numbers rose to 26,502,185 confirmed cases and 873,803 deaths.  The results of the Russian Sputnik-V Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials were published in the medical journal The Lancet today.  The results of the tests on 38 healthy subjects showed no known side-effects and produced some level of antibodies in all subjects.  Russia has faced criticism for distributing the vaccine well before the Phase 3 trials are complete, but that is exactly the plan that the US is now discussing.  Meanwhile, for the second consecutive day, India has reported over 83,000 new cases. 

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board as traders followed the US lead.  However, it is worth noting that the Asian losses were more in the 1% range. In Europe markets are mixed with modest moves in either direction.  The FTSE and CAC are up 0.33% while the DAX is down 0.36%.  This mix is typical across remaining European bourses.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a continued bloodbath in the NASDAQ with an open down of 1.3%, but the SPY is implying a flat open and the DIA an open higher of 0.34% at this point.  It could be that markets still feel the need to punish Robinhood tech investors more, but large-cap investors are waiting on morning data before deciding a course.   

The major economic news for Friday includes August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Non-farm Payrolls, August Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  There are no earnings reports on Friday. 

The selloff Thursday was real, but frankly, was an overdue lesson for the late money flooding into markets lately and may have more room to run.  Despite the bad day, you would be hard-pressed to say markets had truly started a downtrend or done much technical damage yet.  So, a little perspective is in order.

With that said, we are heading into a long weekend, a lot of the big money has already checked out for a holiday and there is some major Payroll data this morning.  This all just says we are likely to see more volatility, may see some follow-through, and even if we do, it’s not the end of the world.

Lighten-up in front of a long politics-laden weekend or at least hedge your positions to an appropriate level. Don’t forget to take a paycheck…those barbeque burgers and brats aren’t going to pay for themselves. However, as always, follow the trend for your trading timeframe, stick to your rules, and always lock-in those profits as you go. Have a great long weekend.

Ed

No new trade ideas for Friday. Enjoy your long weekend. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wall street ignored surprisingly low ADP payroll data as the bulls gapped markets higher on Wednesday.  The large-caps saw the bulls follow-through on the gap and run hard all day.  Meanwhile, the QQQ sold off hard all morning (after the gap), but then also rebounded hard all afternoon.  On the day, the DIA was up 1.54%, the SPY up 1.45%, and the QQQ up 0.95%.  Once again the SPY and QQQ ended at all-time high closes and the DIA is now tantalizingly close as well. VXX also gained to 27.94 and T2122 is back just outside the overbought territory at 79.45.  10-year bond yields were down sharply to 0.648% and Oil (WTI) also fell nearly 3% to $41.58/barrel.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office reports that the federal budget deficit is larger than the economy for the first time since World War II.  The deficit is projected to be $3.3 trillion.  This comes as the Fed and Treasury say much more stimulus is urgently needed and the two parties are split on how much to give (Democrats at $2.2 trillion, Republicans at $1.1 trillion and some of GOP wanting just $500 billion and then to argue about the rest later).

UAL followed up its threat to lay off 3,200 pilots from last week. Now they announced 16,000 jobs will be cut next month. This came on top of AAL saying they would cut 19,000 jobs as soon as government aid ends. The industry says they need another $25 billion in aid to avoid the cuts and hold the industry together to March. However, analysts also say travel may not recover for multiple years. So, this may be just delaying the cuts.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,291,032 confirmed cases and 189,991 deaths.  New cases are back to the elevated flattened curve average of 42,000, but deaths remain above the 7-day average at 1,090.  During the Day Wednesday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told Congress that the daily new case number is unacceptably high going into Labor Day weekend and the pled with the public not to behave carelessly as all too many did on Memorial Day and July 4^th, which led to the summer case spike.

Globally, the numbers rose to 26,209,390 confirmed cases and 868,034 deaths.  The UK announced $665 million for a rapid-testing program.  This comes after scientists told the UK Government that due to testing delays, the scientists estimate the UK is only identifying about 7% of total cases entering the country in travelers.  In India, the spread continues to rage as they reported the largest single-day new case count that has been seen anywhere (83,337).  However, on the bright side, South Korea saw the lowest number of new cases in the last two weeks today.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Japan and South Korea higher while China and Hong Kong paced the losers for the day.  However, Europe is leaning heavily to the bullish side at this point.  The CAC is up 1.82%, the DAX up 1.23% and the FTSE up 0.66% at mid-day.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a red open with the DIA flat, SPY pointing to a modest -0.43% open, and QQQ looking at a gap down of 1.05% to start the day.  

The major economic news for Thursday includes Imports/Exports, Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm Productivity (all at 8:30 am), August Markit Composite PMI and August Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment and August Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am).  Major earnings reports include GMS, MIK, PDCO, SIG, and TTC before the open.  Then after the close AVGO reports.

The bulls continue to run, but extension from averages is significant. So, as tempting as it might be, don’t predict reversals…follow the trend. And remember not to chase moves you have missed, because there will be another one any minute.  Stick with your rules and consistently lock-in profits and reduce your risk. 

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: LKQ, IT, ALLY, YUM, MXIM, ABT, NLOK, MDT, MRK, UPS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a gap higher and early rally before markets ground sideways from 10:30 through the midafternoon.  A late rally took stocks out near the highs.  Once again the QQQ and SPY both printed new all-time high closes and the DIA managed to print a bullish engulfing signal.  On the day, QQQ gained 1.70%, SPY gained 0.94%, and DIA gained 0.91%.  The VXX gained a bit to 27.27 and T2122 also rose a little to 60.39 (still in mid-range).  10-year bond yields fell to 0.677% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $42.88/barrel.

During the day Treasury Sec. Mnuchin told Congress that the US economy urgently needs additional fiscal stimulus.  He did not offer a new proposal on the matter but did say he’d be calling Speaker of the House Pelosi after being prompted to do so by one of the Democratic committee members.  During his testimony, he specifically said that the Services and Travel industries, as well as small businesses, need a fresh round of funds.  Fed Speaker Brainard reiterated the same thing in his speech, adding that FOMC help will continue to be needed for years.

In a related story, White House Chief of Staff Meadows told reporters that the primary stumbling block in negotiations is emergency funding for states and municipalities.  As is normal in partisan negotiators, he went on to say that the starting point for resumed negotiations sholuld not be the Democrat $3 trillion plan from May, nor the Democrat $2 trillion offer of 5 weeks ago, nor the Republican $1 trillion offer from 5 weeks ago. Instead, he thinks they should start from a $500 billion level to negotiate.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,258,028 confirmed cases and 188,907 deaths.  New cases are back to the elevated flattened curve average of 42,000, but deaths remain above the 7-day average at 1,164.  On Tuesday a panel of NIH experts said that just as with hydroxychloroquine, the data does not support recommending the recently touted treatment of convalescent plasma therapy.  In separate news, while the CDC guidelines say a person can return to work 10 days after the onset of symptoms, a new study out of Britain suggests patients need to wait at least a month before going back to public exposure and that symptoms can last for many months.

Globally, the numbers rose to 25,935,511 confirmed cases and 861,900 deaths.  Global GDP numbers continue to trickle in showing what we all knew, Q2 was a bad quarter (how bad depends on the expectation-lowering done ahead of time) with Australia showing a 7% decline for the quarter and an annual GDP decline of 6.3%. A study out of Iceland shows that coronavirus antibodies stay in the body at least 4 months. This finding contradicts smaller studies that showed the antibodies fade more quickly.  It also does not address the cases of reinfection found recently…but does show we are gaining knowledge on the virus all the time now that we are studying it. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly modestly green.  Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were the only red and even they posted modest loses.  Europe is even more bullish with the big 3 bourses up sharply at mid-day.  The FTSE is up 1.71%, while the DAX and CAC are both up 2.35%.  The only red is in Norway and like Asia, that is only a minor loss.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to another gap-up open with the large caps implying a 0.65% higher open and the QQQ implying a 1% higher open.   

The only major economic news for Wednesday is August ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), July Factory Orders (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and a trio of Fed speakers (Williams at 10 am, Mester at noon, and Kashkari at 2pm).  The only major earnings reports on the day are M before the open and PVH and SAIC after the close.

Like the Honeybadger, the bulls simply don’t give a damn, especially about extension from averages. The run continues and looks to be back in play for the open today. So, as tempting as it might be, don’t predict reversals…follow the trend. And remember not to chase moves you have missed, because there will be another one any minute.  Stick with your rules and consistently lock-in profits and reduce your risk. 

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: TNA, PZZA, MOS, FB, AMD, MAS, LB, LEN, URI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was a day of divergence in the major indices.  The SPY had a tiny gap down and then chopped sideways all day.  The DIA gapped down a bit more and then followed through a bit before grinding sideways all afternoon.  Meanwhile, QQQ gapped up and rallied more-or-less all day on the back of the TSLA and AAPL split moves.  On the day, SPY closed down 0.22%, DIA down 0.89%, and QQQ up 0.80%.  The VXX rose almost 5% to 26.85 and T2122 fell all the way back to 42.34.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.705% and Oil (WTI) was down just a touch to $42.81/barrel. This capped the strongest August market in decades.  During the month the S&P500 rose more than 7%, the most since August 1984.

Change is coming I’m afraid.  During the day, AMZN, joined UPS and GOOG as firms who have been given FAA approval for drone deliveries beyond the line of sight of the pilot.  AMZN told CNBC it was not yet ready for its drone fleet to begin the deliveries, but this is another step toward 30-minute delivery of packages up to 5 pounds soon.  UPS has already done CVS prescription deliveries in one high-end FL suburb and GOOG has been doing drone delivery to a VA town since last October.  

WMT announced it will launch its Walmart+ membership program on September 15.  While the company claims the program is not designed to compete with any other service, it is seen far and wide as a direct competitor to the AMZN Prime membership.  Prices of the two services are similar ($119/yr. or $12.99/mo. for Prime and $98/yr. or $12.95/mo. For Walmart+), but Prime includes free two-day shipping and other services like video streaming while the WMT offering includes gas discounts (up to 5 cents/gallon) and expedited in-store checkout.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,212,174 confirmed cases and 187,742 deaths.  While 26 states reported an increasing number of new cases, the overall national number remains far below the 7-day average at “just” 38,560 new cases Monday. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 25,662,163 confirmed cases and 855,352 deaths. Europe reported a 6% spike in cases last week, led by a 21% increase in Spain, 16% in Russia, and 10% increase in France.  In Asia, a private survey found that Chinese manufacturing PMI rose faster in August than it has in over 10 years (at 53.1 vs. 52.7 expected). 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but the big-economy indices were all in the green as South Korea, China, and India led and Japan was flat.  With the exception of the FTSE (whish is down 1.2% at mid-day), all the European bourses are in the green so far.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a divergent open.  The Dow Futures imply a DIA open that is flat, S&P futures imply a SPY open up three-tenths of a percent and Nasdaq futures imply a QQQ open up 0.90%. 

The only major economic news for Tuesday is August Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), August ISM PMI (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Brainard at 1 pm).  There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

Just prior to publishing this blog, TSLA announced they will sell an additional $5 billion of stock following its 5-for-1 split apparently to take advantage of the rally and very high valuation.

Markets are pointing to a desire to follow-through on a record-breaking August.  As has been the case, we remain extended above the moving averages, but only the DIA shows even a hint of a bear being around. And even that index is holding a strong bullish trend.  So, follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed.  Stick with your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk. 

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NIO, SQ, AMD, FB, KMB, MKC, JNJ, MCHP, KO, PG, VXX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was an up-and-down day, more or less within the range of the opening gap-up, until a late-day rally closed markets near their highs…at least in the SPY.  Again, the SPY closed at an all-time high.  Meanwhile, both the DIA and QQQ printed another gap-up Spinning Top type indecisive candle.  On the day, SPY gained 0.64%, DIA was up 0.52%, and QQQ was up 0.58%.  The VXX was flat at 25.79 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio rose back into the overbought territory at 86.88.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.724% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.98/barrel.

Friday evening the IRS issued guidelines on the Payroll Tax deferral.  Those guidelines say the taxes must be paid, by employers, by April 30.  So, it puts the responsibility to collect deferred taxes on the employers. Normal Payroll Tax Withholding will resume on January 1 and it will then be up to the businesses to either pay the deferred tax from company funds or to otherwise get the money back from the employees whose taxes went uncollected for 4 months. This may dramatically mute or eliminate the impact of the President’s scheme to get a short-term boost to consumer spending as companies may not want to take on the risk of being on the hook for taxes the employee is unwilling or unable to repay.

On Saturday it was reported that WMT has teamed up with MSFT to jointly bid against ORCL for the purchase of TikTok North American operations.  This was an odd move in that MSFT wanted that asset for themselves until the ORCL bid significantly raised the price…and also because WMT is not in the social media business.  Another 11th-hour bid was also made by investment firm Centricus. Then Sunday, the next shoe fell in the US-China trade war. China tightened its laws and now the sale of those North American operations (by Chinese company Byte Dance) will require the approval of the Chinese government.  In fact, it is reported that China’s approval may be needed even for negotiations to continue.  All this while a Trump-imposed deadline for the sale approaches.

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that China’s biggest banks have reported the largest profit decline in over a decade as loan defaults are weighing on profitability.  The four largest Chinese banks (all Hong Kong Listed) reported loan loss provision increases of up to 97%.  As a result, the stocks of those banks are trading at less than half of book value.  This is only relevant in that many analysts see the Chinese economy as leading the US economy by about a quarter in pandemic impact owing to the relative lateness of the US response (shutdown) versus the Chinese shutdown.  So, this could theoretically offer some forecast for major US banks in the coming quarter.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,175,008 confirmed cases and 187,227 deaths.  New cases reported fell dramatically (as has been the norm) on the weekend.  However, 21 states (mostly Midwestern) are seeing case growth of 5% or more on the 7-day average this week.  The US also saw its first confirmed case of reinfection as DNA test show a 25-year-old Nevada man was hospitalized and then tested positive in mid-April.  He then got better and had two negative tests at the end of April.  However, he was hospitalized again in late May and tested positive again.  (It took almost 3 months for DNA analysis to prove it was multiple infections and not the same one.)

Globally, the numbers rose to 25,416,064 confirmed cases and 851,099 deaths. On Sunday, India reported a new record high (passing the US’ worst day by 1,500) with 78,761 new confirmed cases.  It took 6 months for the mega-population country to reach 1 million cases and 3 weeks to then reach 2 million. Despite this, as régimes are wont to do, India is pressing ahead with reopening measures.  Japan and South Korea also report increasing outbreaks, but their crises are measured in hundreds instead of tens of thousands per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were solidly in the red, with Japan being the only market to make it into the green (possibly on Berkshire buying a stake in Japan’s 5 largest trading firms).  China was down less than half a percent, but South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and most of the smaller markets were down well over 1% on the day.  Exactly the opposite is true in Europe, where only the holiday-closed FTSE did not make it to the green,  Everything else is well into positive territory, though none of them have reached +1.00% as of mid-day.   In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open across the board with moves of 2-3-tenths of a percent implied now.  

The only major economic news for Monday is a Fed speaker (Clarida at 9 am).  There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

Markets continue to be extended from their trendlines, but there is no doubting those trends are bullish…and there have been no bears to be seen for quite some time.  The rally continues to be strong and extended (from averages), but the bears have shown no sign of having the energy to step in for quite some time.  So, don’t go predicting any reversals.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed. (Another one will come along any minute.)  Stick to your rules, process, and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: EMR, IT, DOW, GLW, NLOK, MCHP, MNST, NWS, TGT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks began Thursday with a modest gap higher that was met with an immediate selloff back below the prior close.  That started a rollercoaster day that ended up not far from where it began as all 3 major indices printed gap-up, indecisive candles.  On the day, SPY was up 0.22%, QQQ down 0.31%, and DIA up 0.59%.  The gain left the SPY at another all-time high close.  The VXX gained a bit back up to 25.70 and T2122 climbed a bit to 67.72 (still in the mid-range).  10-year bond yields rose strongly to 0.746% as buyers sought safety in bonds.  Oil (WTI) fell almost a percent to $43.00/barrel.

As expected, prior to the open Fed Chair Powell announced that the FOMC will now use an “Average Inflation Target.”  This means the Fed will let inflation run well past the 2% target without action until full employment is achieved.  He also implied that the FOMC will let unemployment run below its target before taking action on inflation.  This set of announcements did have an immediate impact on bond yields and helped bank stocks as investors started to expect inflation.

At the close, House Speaker Pelosi announced she had held a 25-minute call with White House Chief of Staff Meadows.  However, she also said no progress was made and there remains a “tragic impasse” between the two sides.  Political blame games followed from both parties.  This comes as leaks are suggesting the Senate Republicans are trying to agree amongst themselves on a “mini stimulus” bill that is only half the size of their August proposed $1 billion negotiating position.  Just as the Senate Republicans had said the Democrat plan from May was a non-starter and would not even be considered, the Democrats in the House are likely to do the same with a Republican mini bill…assuming the Republicans can agree to it among themselves.  Again, just political posturing on both sides here.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,048,404 confirmed cases and 184,834 deaths.  New cases edged up again Thursday to 46,286 (above the 7-day average again) and new deaths fell back to 1,143 for the day (also still above the 7-day average).  Meanwhile, airlines continue to threaten layoffs with AAL saying they will cut 40,000 jobs (mostly from buyouts and early retirements) and now UAL saying they will cut 3,000 pilots, both to take place at the end of Federal-aid…unless they get another $25 billion in aid as an industry.

Globally, the numbers rose to 24,661,422 confirmed cases and 836,338 deaths. In Europe, Germany is introducing tougher virus control measures as cases continue to rise.  This includes fines for not wearing a mask in any public space, bans on large gatherings, required isolation after returning from high-risk areas.  On the vaccine front, both Japan and Germany announced they are working on contracts to secure enough multi-dose vaccines for all their citizens by mid-2021.  Speaking of Japan, PM Abe resigned last night due to unspecified health concerns of his own.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  China led the gainers adding between 1.5% and 2%.  Meanwhile, Japan and Australian paced the losers down about 1%. Europe is also mixed so far today, but leans to the red side.  The biggest gainer is Belgium (+0.37%) while the biggest loser is Sweden (-1.00%).  The 3 major European bourses are all just on either side of flat.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open in the large-caps and a dead-flat open in the QQQ.

The major economic news for Friday includes July Personal Consumption, July Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and the virtual Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues. Major earnings reports are limited to BIG before the open.  There are no major reports after the close.

The rally continues to be strong and extended (from averages), but the bears have shown no sign of having the energy to step in for quite some time.  The wait for the political conventions to be over is done and the question is whether the market will now wait until after Labor Day to return or maybe come back next week.   Just remember we have had a couple of gap-up indecisive candles in a row now.  So, use a little extra caution about getting “too long” into the weekend. 

With that said, despite some extension, the trend remains bullish any which way you look at the chart.  So, don’t go predicting a reversal to the downside either.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Stick to your rules, process, and work to consistently lock-in your profits and reduce risk.  Also, don’t forget to take some off the table today…Friday is payday after all.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CCL, CPRI, FSM, FCX, PVH, BSX, ALLY, NOC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service