Tuesday saw another significant gap higher followed by an afternoon selloff that left us with indecisive black candles.  None of the 3 major indices were able to break out of their consolidation range of the last week.  However, 8 of the 10 major sectors were up on the day, with Financial Services and Energies being the outliers.  On the day SPY gained 0.49%, DIA was flat at +0.02%, and QQQ gained 1.42%.  The VXX was also flat at 25.02 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell back to mid-point at 51.83.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.682% and Oil (WTI) was up almost 3% to $38.32/barrel.

During the day AAPL announced a slew of product refreshes but added a long-awaited bundle of AAPL services (subscription to music, TV, arcade and cloud storage) for $15/mo.  Wall Street had been pushing the company to offer a subscription bundle revenue stream. AAPL also announced a fitness line aimed to compete with PTON.  On the day AAPL was flat and PTON initially dropped but recovered for a 4.19% gain.

Hurricane Sally made landfall in AL overnight.  As a Category 2 storm, the fear appears to be more about torrential rain and wind damage than major storm surge or large-scale inundation.  However, AL, and FL businesses could see disruptions from the storm.  It appears that in most measures, the West Coast fires and smoke are still the worst natural disasters impacting the country.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,788,471 confirmed cases and we have now had over 200k deaths at 200,197.  This comes after a small uptick yesterday in a still (by US standards) “mild day” of 38,286 cases and 1,197 deaths.  In a related story, the political operator placed as head of communications of HHS (the one who has changed reported numbers to fit Admin. narrative) publicly apologized for his most recent “deep state,” “sedition,” and related unfounded conspiracy theories that he has used to justify massaging the numbers provided by career scientists. Meanwhile, FDX reported a continued demand surge in the last quarter from pandemic-related orders. And SBUX reports same-store sales were down only 11% in August versus 2019 as the recovery continues.

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,764,825 confirmed cases and 939,962 deaths.  The OECD now estimates the global economic contraction to be just 4.5% for the year.  While this is still an unparalleled drop in global GDP, that is much better than their mid-year forecast of -6%.  In Ireland, the entire cabinet is self-isolating and Parliament has been suspended following infections and a recent test.  Meanwhile, Germany’s Education and Research Minister told a news briefing that she does not expect a vaccine to be widely available until mid-2021.  At the same presser, the Health Minister said between 55% and 65% of the population would need to have already been vaccinated for it to control the virus in the population.  In the neighboring Czech Republic they saw a record number of new cases and in France, dozens of schools have been closed in the last week as their own cases are increasing again.  Spain has also brought on new restrictions to fight its own increase.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned a touch more to the red side Wednesday.  The NIKKEI and Hong Kong were flat with China and South Korea down.  The remainder (smaller markets) were mostly green.  Europe is also mixed this morning with the big 3 bourses all just on the red side of flat as traders wait on hints about the Fed statement (which comes after the European closes).  In the US, at 7:45 am, the futures are pointing to another green open.  The large-caps are implying an open up 0.40% with the NASDAQ implying a green but flat open. 

Wednesday is a big day for major economic news with August Retail Sales (8:30 am), July Business Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Q3 Interest Rate Projection (both at 2 pm), and FOMC Press Conf. (2:30 pm).  However, there are no major earnings reports on Wednesday.

We remain range-bound with gaps being the main move of the day. There is not a bullish trend yet, but the bearish trend has been broken. So be careful of volatility with gaps and indecisive swings controlling the market. That said, the market seems to be waiting on the Fed today. This is a bit odd since nobody expects a rate change and Fed officials (including the chair) have already often and repeatedly said rates will remain at essentially zero for years to come. So, I do not know what markets want or expect to hear…let alone what they might hear this afternoon.

Regardless, beware of the volatility. Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: CWH, DRI, PYPL, TSM, LYV, FSM, BBY, ALLY, KSS, ETFC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was another indecisive day with at gap up and then no follow-through.  This left all 3 major indices stuck in what could certainly be a bottom, but could also be consolidation before another leg down.  On the day the SPY was up 1.31%, DIA up 1.26%, and QQQ up 1.74%, but all closed well off their highs.  The VXX fell again to 25.10 and T2122 rose sharply (out of oversold territory) to 70.49.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.674% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $37.29/barrel. 

During the day, ORCL confirmed that they had reached a deal with Byte Dance to partner with TikTok for US operations.  However, the parties are counting on President Trump to back off his original demands, because there would be no outright sale to ORCL in the agreed deal.  This leaves an open question because of the political points to be made, as well as the ties of ORCL Execs to the President.  All this is on top of the President’s demand that the US government get “a lot of money” out of the deal.  So, several headlines Monday, but nothing definitive yet

The House is working on a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded past the end of the fiscal year on Oct. 1st.  Treasury Sec. Mnuchin (negotiating for Republicans) has agreed with Speaker of the House Pelosi that the only topic for this bill will be the CR (no stimulus).  Republicans want the new funding to only last until just past the election, while the Democrats want it to last through the swearing-in of the next Congress.  Negotiations are still underway about the funding levels of the CR (and probably pork) and no vote is expected until next week, giving the Senate just enough time for an up/down vote on keeping the government open.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,749,406 confirmed cases and 199,018 deaths.  This comes after a “mild day” of 37,000 cases and 480 deaths.  While AZN has restarted its UK trial on its vaccine, the US trial remains halted until at least mid-week after while the FDA investigates a severe neurological problem in one of the trial participants.  In FL there has been a 26% increase in cases among children in the month since school began again.  In MI, MSU has ordered the quarantine of all fraternities and sororities after hundreds of cases have been found in those groups.

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,474,968 confirmed cases and 933,423 deaths.  In the UK, there is a test shortage causing people to travel hundreds of miles or (as had been the case in the US a month ago) wait weeks for results or both.  This comes as the UK is only processing 200,000 tests per day.  In Austria, cases are rising as their government warns of a second wave starting.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned toward the green on moderate moves to either side.  Thailand and Malaysian were the only countries to move more than a percent positive and Indonesia the only one to move more than a percent negative.  The major bourses moved about a half percent to the green except Japan which did the opposite.  However, in Europe we are seeing green across the board so far today.  The FTSE leads the big 3, up 1% with the DAX and CAC seeing much more moderate moves as of mid-day.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to another gap higher at the open.  The NASDAQ is leading, implying a gap of nearly 1% while both large-cap indices imply a gap up of 0.70% as of now.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes August Import/Export price Index and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and August Industrial Production (9:15 am).  The only major earnings reports on the day are ADBE and FDX after the close.

The lack of follow-through after Monday’s gap has not dampened bull spirits.  It seems another gap higher is in the cards this morning.  However, remember we don’t have a bullish trend yet (on the daily at least) and we are still inside that bottoming area that could go either way.   Perhaps the markets are waiting on more news from the Fed or Congress, but we have the 50sma below and the top of the bottoming congestion above acting as at least temporary limiters.

Be careful of volatility.  Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: SYF, HWM, CFG, JCI, AUY, JETS, LYV, DRI, WKHS, KSS, FSM. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a volatile day, opening with a half-to-three-quarters of a percent gap higher, riding the roller-coaster within a 2-3% range and closing with indecisive black candles.  On the day, DIA was up 0.47%, SPY flat at up 0.05%, and QQQ down 0.69%.  The dreaded-h pattern remains in place for all three indices with potential support at the breakdown level.  Oddly, the VXX was down hard (almost 6%) to 25.52 and T2122 remains well into the oversold area at 9.03.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.669% and Oil (WTI) was up slightly to $37.33/barrel.

On Sunday it was announced GILD will buy IMMU for $21 billion in order to add the IMMU breast-cancer treatments to their catalog.  In other takeover news, overnight NVDA bought British chipmaker ARM (from Japan’s Softbank).  The co-founder of ARM immediately attacked the deal as a disaster because inevitably NVDA would move the company to the US.  The deal is most noteworthy because AAPL recently announced they are dropping the INTC architecture in favor of the ARM architecture (rebranded as “Apple Silicon” as if AAPL had somehow designed or built the chips).

In trade war news, ORCL seems to be the winner in the TikTok forced-buyout deal as Byte Dance has rejected the joint MSFT / WMT bid.  However, over the weekend the Chinese government, which must approve the sale, said the TikTok algorithm would not be part of any sale and no official deal announcement has yet been made.  Still, this should be looked on favorably by US administration officials given ties to both the CEO and Chairman of ORCL.  If announced this week, the deal would beat the White House-imposed September 20 deal deadline.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,710,031 confirmed cases and 198,533 deaths.  As of Sunday, cases are growing by more than 5% on the weekly average in only 11 states, which is a big improvement over a couple weeks ago.  However, troublingly over the weekend is was reported that political appointees at HHS have been given the ability to review and demand changes to case and mortality data from the CDC.  In brighter news, on Sunday, PFE said they may have up to hundreds of thousands of doses (2 doses required per patient) of their vaccine by year-end…if it passes Phase 3 trials and if it is immediately approved by the FDA for emergency use.  Of course, in the same interview, PFE’s CEO also said “there was a good chance they would know IF their vaccine works, and how well, by the end of October.  Until then, all that can be done is to plan using the best-case scenario.”

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,216,069 confirmed cases, and 929,056 deaths.  On Saturday AZN resumed its Phase 3 trial (oddly just days after saying it would resume by year-end). Meanwhile, the case surge in France continues as their Health Minister said there was a “clear deterioration of the virus situation (especially hospitalizations),” although there was a slight dip in new cases on Sunday.  In the middle-east, Israel has approved a second general lockdown of their country.  And in Asia, South Korea is stockpiling PPE for Winter, while China announced there was no need to vaccinate the country’s entire population at this stage, (instead just focusing on frontline workers and other select groups).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but generally positive with Indonesia (+2.89%) far outpacing everyone, followed by South Korea (+1.3%) and Shenzhen (+1.15%).  All other Asian markets were either modest winners of modest losers.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but split more evenly at this point in their day.  The big 3 European indices are mixed with 2 modest losers and the CAC up 0.21% as of now.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a strong gap higher at the open.  The DIA is the laggard, showing an implied gap higher of 0.87%, but SPY is looking at +1.21% and QQQ at + 1.64% as of now.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday release.  And the only major earnings reports on the day is LEN after the close.

After a bull trap on Thursday and a less than stellar Friday, markets look to be charging into the new week.   The trend remains to the downside, but the 50sma area may have given support for all 3 major indices.  It certainly looks as though we will gap up through the downtrend. However, remember this is not the same thing as starting an uptrend.  In recent months it has been the mega-tech FAANG names that have led markets higher.  It is possible the TikTok and/or NVDA-ARM deal is helping them find their legs again.  Regardless, gaps are gifts, but otherwise, nothing we can take advantage of…and they are a signal of more volatility.

So, regardless of the open, stick with your plan.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon. Stick to your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk. 

Ed

Trade ideas for Monday: XYL, IP, SYF, NIO, LYV, JCI, LYFT, DOW, FCX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped more than a percent higher (2% in the QQQ) on Wednesday.  They then followed-through in the morning before grinding sideways until late-day selling closed all 3 major indices well off their highs.  On the day QQQ gained 2.94%, SPY gained 1.97%, and DIA gained 1.61%.  The VXX fell hard to 26.83 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold range up to 31.21.  10-year bond yields rose a bit to 0.698% and Oil (WTI) rose nearly 3% to $37.78/barrel.

CNBC reported that several economists have told them that $3 trillion of additional fiscal stimulus is needed to support the economy.  The economist interviewed said those funds should be used to incentivize remote working and help the unemployed.  At the same time in Congress, the Senate Republicans plan to vote on just $500 billion (Democrats say it will not pass) while the talks between the Administration and House Speaker Pelosi’s team are still stalled with the GOP side at $1 trillion and the Democrat side at $2 billion.

In the UK, PM Johnson is feeling great pressure after admitting there will very likely be no trade deal before the year end Brexit deadline.  Yesterday he proposed UK legislation that would break the withdrawal agreement (and other international trade agreements), by taking control over Irish, Scottish and Welsh foreign trade.  This was probably an attempt to use Ireland/Northern Ireland as negotiation leverage.  However, the act does jeopardize the UK-US trade agreement as well as the status of many global companies at risk as well.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,549,771 confirmed cases and 195,245 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases has fallen to 37,248.  Meanwhile, deaths rose sharply to 1,209, well above the 7-day average of 753.  The Federal government has decided to drop testing for incoming International travelers.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 28,056,120 confirmed cases and 908,651 deaths.  In a surprising story, AZN says it should know by year-end if its vaccine trial can restart. This is potentially a much longer delay than markets had anticipated.  The Intl. Air Cargo Assn. reported overnight that even ignoring the temperature demands I reported yesterday, the world will still need 8,000 cargo jets the size of a BA 747 to distribute even a single dose of a vaccine worldwide.  (Of course, all the current vaccine candidates require 2 doses and it is undetermined how long that set of vaccinations would provide protection.)  In Europe cases continue to climb as France says they cannot rule out the need for more local lockdowns (although they will resist another national lockdown).  Meanwhile in Asia, India reported more than 95,000 new cases on the day and places like Indonesia have put the brakes on easing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Shenzhen down over 2% while Japan and South Korea were up about 0.88%.  In Europe, so far today markets are mostly in the red, led to the downside by the FTSE after the UK’s Trade news.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing modestly to the downside with large-caps looking toward a half-percent gap down and the QQQ a gap 0.20% open lower.

The only major economic news for Thursday is Aug. PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The only major earnings reports on the day come after the close when AMRK, CHWY, and ORCL report.

The bulls had a nice day Wednesday.  However, markets closed well off their highs and so far this week, all we are showing is a lower-high. So be careful getting to long on the “buy the dip” sentiment that has surrounded markets for some time.  We are swing traders, not long-term holders and currently the short-term trend is still down.  So, follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed.  Stick with your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk. 

Ed

Trade ideas for Thursday: PENN, OTRK, GOLD, ETSY, DDOG, W, OSTK, PDD, GLW. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service