The markets once again took their cues from vaccine news and hopefulness for federal stimulus as the SP-500 topped 3700 for the first time in history and the Nasdaq set its 50th record high for the year. Valuations continue to soar as the overall market P/E Ratio stretches 72% above the 10-year average. The U.S. added 1 million new infections in just 4-days, but that is not slowing down the bull run with a parade of big investment banks predicting a bullish 2021 market. Trade with the trend but have a plan should the sentiment suddenly shift because current market prices are long from technical supports.
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight, with the Shanghai down more than 1%. European markets are currently bullish across the board this morning, with Brexit talks in focus. U.S. Futures point to another morning of bullishness ahead of the JOLTS report and several earnings reports.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have another light day but still have several quarterly reports of potential market moving. Notable reports include ADBE, CPB, DBI, HOV, VRA & VRNT.
News and Technicals’
It’s becoming all too common, with the market setting new record highs based on vaccine news and federal stimulus hopes. The SP-500 tops 3700 for the first time in history as the Nasdaq prints its 50th record high for the year. As the markets surge higher, so goes the pandemic infections adding 1 million new cases in just 4-days. Phizer is now warning that people with significant allergic reactions shouldn’t take the vaccine after two of Britain’s National Health Service experienced severe reactions. However, both are not recovering, according to the national medical director. Citi Private Bank added its voice to the chorus of big investment banks predicting market gains in 2021 and went on to say it loves these ‘unstoppable’ trend. Mortgage rates continue to fall, setting the 14th record low of the year today, driving more refinance demand.
Without question, the bulls have shown remarkable resiliency and a willingness to buy almost anything, no matter the price. Trends remain strong as we continue to extend steeply away from technicals supports. Stay with the trend, but once again, I caution you to be very careful not to overtrade or chase already extended stocks. Remember, what goes up in a euphoric market rally tends to have severe correction consequences at some point in time. Be prepared in case the sentiment suddenly shifts.
The NASDAQ sets if 49th record high of the year even as the bears make half-hearted attempts in the SPY and DIA. While there are clues that the economy is slowing due to pandemic shutdowns, the bulls remain resolute, showing a willingness to keep extending. Even with vaccines coming to market, we still have a long winter ahead of us, and in the short-term, markets look very extended. Euphoric markets tend to last longer than most would expect, so stay with the trend, avoid chasing extended stocks, and be careful not to overtrade. Runs like this tend to end in an ugly way.
Asian markets closed modestly lower across the board overnight, and European markets see red with a Brexit deal hanging in the balance. Ahead of earnings, another light economic calendar, and Congress still unable to get their act together, U.S. Futures point to lower open.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Although the earnings have been winding down, we still have several stepping up with quarterly reports. Notable reports include CHWY, GME, AZO, CONN, GWRE, HRB, THO., BF.B.
News & Technicals’
Although we had a little selling yesterday, it was very controlled, and by the end of the day, the bulls maintained control of the trends. The NASDAQ fought the selling, rising to its 49th high record for the year. The Pfizer vaccine has begun rolling out, with a 90-year-old woman in the UK receiving the very first dose. The UK is dubbing the event at V-day after suffering considerable losses across the country due to the pandemic. With the federal government facing a funding shutdown on the 11th, the best it seems that Congress can do is attempt to pass a spending bill that will cover a single week of operation as they continue to haggle over the stimulus bill. With management like that, it’s no wonder that the federal debt is quickly approaching 30 trillion.
Bulls remain in control of the trends, and the T2122 indicator continues to flash a short-term overbought condition. There are so many stocks looking parabolic; it’s very reminiscent of the euphoria present in the 1999, 2000 tech bubble. Although the market conditions are very different, the fear of missing chase of very extended stock prices is much the same. A euphoric market can last much longer than one might think, but it is usually swift and very punishing for those coming to the party late when they end. Although I sound like a broken record, I want caution traders to stay with the trend but guard yourself against overtrading and avoid chasing already extended stocks.
On Monday the large-caps gave us a small gap down, followed by an indecisive, Doji type candle day. The DIA was a Doji Bearish Harami. The QQQ gave us a small gap up followed by more bullish follow-through. On the day, The QQQ gained 0.57% to close at yet another all-time high. The SPY lost 0.21% and DIA lost 0.49%. The VXX gained about half a percent to 17.21 and T2122 remains deep in overbought territory at 94.84. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.928% and Oil (WTI) fell a little over a percent to $45.63/barrel. In an interesting sidebar, Fresh Water (H2O) began trading as a commodity Monday.
Monday was a bad day and night for stimulus. Senate Majority Leader McConnell refused to endorse the bipartisan compromise bill and it appears Congress will need to pass a one-week spending extension on Wednesday to keep the federal government open until December 18. This is being done because the two sides of the stimulus negotiation have agreed on the high-level numbers, but they are not agreed on the wording of the specifics of spending. So, in order to roll this into an omnibus funding bill, they need to kick the can down the road another week.
In corporate news, TSLA will offer another secondary stock sale to raise $5 billion. This is the second time it has sold more stock in 3 months and may be an indication it is trying to squeeze every penny out of a very high market price for the stock. Meanwhile, GS has agreed to buy out its Chinese partner (and has applied to Chinese Regulators for the right to have 100% ownership of a securities entity in mainland China). This followed JPM taking 71% ownership in its own Chinese securities joint venture and CS announcing it would like to take 100% ownership of its mainland securities partnership.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 15,370,339 confirmed cases and 290,474 deaths. Monday saw another record 200,000+ new cases and 1,539 new deaths. This brings the 7-day average of new cases is at 206,259 while average deaths rose to 2,300/day. This comes as Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CBS reporters that the “full brunt of Thanksgiving gatherings on the Covid surge” has not hit yet…but it’s coming soon. This came as Fauci and several other health experts were urging the public to cancel or dramatically change holiday gathering plans.
Globally, the numbers rose to 68,055,468 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,553,155 deaths. The big global news was that the UK has begun giving vaccinations using the PFE-BTNX vaccine. Due to the extreme cold needed and logistics, at least at first, they are focusing on hospital workers and priority patients (like the elderly) who are already located at a major hospital for appointments. However, across the channel, Germany reached a new record high infection rate. In Asia, Hong Kong increased restrictions on social distancing yet again while South Korea and Japan have called out their militaries to assist in medical staffing and contact tracing.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again. Thailand (+2.01%) was an outlier as the gains were generally modest. The same is true of South Korea (-1.62%) being abnormal while most losses were quite modest. In Europe, markets are leaning more heavily to the downside so far today. Only two minor markets are modestly green, but the 3 major bourses are typical with the FTSE down 0.48%, the DAX down 0.41%, and the CAC down 0.82%. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest gap down. The SPY (-0.56%), DIA (-0.47%), and QQQ (-0.39%) are all implying lower opens at this point in the premarket.
The major economic news is very limited for Tuesday. This includes Q3 Nonfarm Productivity and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (both at 8:30 am). The major earnings releases are also limited and include AZO, GIII, and THO before the open. Then after the close, CHWY and GME report.
Asia and Europe seem to be leading us lower on Tuesday, perhaps on at least a delay in any US stimulus or on the bad virus news from around the world. With limited economic news or earnings to change that lead, it looks like we may have a lower open. However, remember that hope springs eternal among bulls up near the all-time highs. The point being, it does not pay to fight the trend until it is broken. Just be careful.
Respect support and resistance, the trend, and price action. Remain true to your trading rules and trust your process. Keep booking those singles and doubles. It’s the profits you take that pay the bills. So leave “picking the very top” to the traders more interested in stroking their ego than making money.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NAT, PINS, AAPL, XLC, COOP, AG, SOLO, BLNK, EGO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
A slowing job growth proved to be no concern for the market on Friday, pushing all four indexes into new record territory. The rapidly rising pandemic infection rate, the death toll is, however, forcing states to increase restrictions as hospitalizations strain the capacity limits of the health care system. That said, no price seems too high as investors rush into stocks focused on stimulus hopes, vaccine news that points to 2021 recovery. However, at this elevation, if the market stumbles, the resulting pullback could be very painful if the market does suddenly decides we have pushed too high too quickly in anticipation.
Asian markets closed in red across the board overnight. European markets trade mixed as they push forward with last-ditch Brexit efforts. U.S. futures trade lower this morning but are will off the overnight lows as the morning lows as institutions try to keep investors buying, predicting a 2021 spring economic restart.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have several notable companies fessing up to quarterly results on the Monday earnings calendar. Notable reports include CASY, HQY, JKS, SFIX, SUMO & TOL.
News & Technicals’
Even with a sizable miss on the jobs front, the market continued to surge higher, setting new record highs on all four indexes. Futures markets are currently looking a bit lower this morning but have already bounced off the morning lows with the morning pump-up underway. As investors work the price, the market for a hopeful spring recovery of the pandemic rising oil prices becomes noticed at the gas pumps, with the national average price rising $0.04 a gallon. Simultaneously, the White House health advisor says this winter will be the worst event that this country has faced. California has issued a statewide stay at home order, and states around the country continue to ramp up restrictions measure to combat the spread.
Trends remain very bullish, and there seems to be a non-stop barrage from institution headlines predicting a massive restart to the economy in 2021. I certainly hope they are correct, but that has created a potentially dangerous short-term overbought condition. The T2122 indicator continues to warn that a pullback could begin at any time; however, stimulus hopes, vaccine news, record holiday salse, and 2021 predictions have investors willing to ignore the current pandemic economic impacts. How long this can continue is anyone’s guess but be careful not to overtrade because one day, the market may suddenly decide to care about the impacts, and the technical supports are a long way from current prices.
On Friday, all 3 major indices had a slight gap up and then the bulls followed through early. After about 10 am, the rest of the day was a sideways grind. On the day, the large-caps led as the SPY was up 0.86%, DIA up 0.84%, and the QQQ up 0.41%. All 3 of the indices then closed at all-time high closes. The VXX fell almost 2% to 17.11 and the T2122 remains deep in overbought territory at 96.91. The 10-year bond yields spiked (as money flowed out of bonds) to 0.973% and Oil (WTI) was up at $46.09/barrel.
Over the weekend, leaks from both sides indicated that a stimulus deal could be agreed in the next day or two at an agreed price tag of $908 billion. GOP Senators have said that Senate Majority Leader McConnell and President Trump will support the legislation. One of the agreed provisions seems to be a second $1,200 stimulus check, which retailers (particularly online retailers) will find very appealing, assuming it is not too late to get the checks out by year-end.
Chick-fil-A restaurant chain filed suit against all the major poultry suppliers (TSN, PPC, SAFM, JBSS), alleging price-fixing. In other corporate news, Airbnb raised the price range for their IPO due out on Thursday from $44-$50 to $56-$60 per share. KODK stock also shot as much as 70% higher in pre-market trading as a federal agency found that they had found no evidence of conflicts of interest from the unusual trading around the July announcement of the company’s pivot and announced government contract to supply ingredients for a potential Covid treatment.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage across the US. The totals have risen to 15,159,529 confirmed cases and 288,906 deaths. Friday saw another record 237, 372 new cases and 2,742 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is at 200,012 while deaths are averaging 2,258/day. The country hit another record number of Covid hospitalizations Sunday as we have seen over 1 million new cases in the first 5 days of the month alone. In CA, more regions of the state were put under a “stay at home” order, including the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego regions. All in all, 33 million of the state’s residents are under the order as cases, ICU capacity, and deaths are at extreme levels. That said, we should also note that the FDA is expected to approve the emergency use of the PFE-BTNX vaccine on Thursday with first vaccinations likely to happen within a day after the approval. A vote on the approval of the MRNA vaccine is expected a week later. Distribution of both will still be challenging as many states only have a handful of hospitals in their entire state with the ultra-cold freezers needed to store and distribute these two vaccines.
Globally, the numbers rose to 67,493,569 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,543,627 deaths. In Europe, Denmark has announced a partial lockdown after many cities report record new cases. The UK is set to begin administering the first batch of PFE-BTNX vaccine on Tuesday. In Asia, Japan saw another record number of new cases Sunday and South Korea is implementing new restrictions to stay ahead of the spread. In Indonesia, 1.2 million doses of a Chinese Covid-19 vaccine have arrived with another 1.8 million doses scheduled to arrive by early January.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Hong Kong (-1.23%) and Shanghai (-0.81%) led the losses while Indonesia (+2.07%) and Taiwan (+0.88%) led the gainers. In Europe, we see a similar pattern so far in their day. Belgium (-0.87%) and the CAC (-0.74%) are leading the downside push while Denmark (+0.59%) and the FTSE (+0.38%) lead the gainers. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a lower open. The SPY (-0.37%), DIA (-0.41%), are implying a small gap down while the QQQ (-0.10%) indicates an open on the red side of flat.
There is no major economic news for Monday. Major earnings releases include JKS before the open and CASY and TOL after the close.
A lack of major econmic news is likely to be overwhelmed by optimism as the UK begins vaccinations with the US a few days behind. That plus the hope for economic stimulus may be enough to let the bulls run. Keep in mind that we are at all-time highs, in an overbought market, and the gains seem tentative. So, just be careful.
As always, don’t predict reversals (the trend is your friend until it is broken), but also don’t chase moves you missed. Respect support and resistance, the trend, and price action. Remain disciplined to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. It’s the profits you take that pay the bills, not bragging rights of picking the very top.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BERY, FUL, KNSL, KURA, RS, FOLD, STNG, ALB, ADP, CCK, ADT, CRBP, XLB, ARNC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Ahead of the Employment Situation report, U.S. futures see nothing but bullishness, pushing for more record highs at the open. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the pandemic, which is shutting down business all over the country, has not yet trickled into employment. The NASDAQ set its 47th new high record for the year in yesterday’s bull run even as hospitalizations reach critical capacity issues and the death toll surges. Have a plan just in case the market suddenly decides to care because it’s a long way to the daily 50-moving average.
Asian markets closed Friday trading mixed as SMIC shares plunge in Hong Kong after the Pentagon blacklisting. European market trade cautiously higher focused on U.S. stimulus efforts and Brexit issues. With a light day on the earnings calendar, the U.S. futures point to more recording highs ahead of the government’s reading on employment.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
We have a light day on the Friday earnings calendar. Notable reports include BIG & GCO.
News and Technicals’
Bulls remain large and in charge, with the Nasdaq making it 47th new record high this year. News that suggested distribution issues with the new Phizer vaccine created a wild whipsaw near the end of the day. That said, the current market shakes off any concerning news, and the bulls rush back, bidding up already stretched and high priced stocks. Biden is endorsing the latest Covid stimulus deal saying it’s a good start, which would suggest even more deficit spending is on the way in his administration. A lot is riding on the 900 billion stimulus package success as Congress rushes to avoid a government shutdown on December 11th. In a surprising move, Warner Media announced that all scheduled 2021 new movies would simultaneously release to movie theaters and the HboMax.com streaming service. A massive blow to the theater business and a reminder of how the pandemic is reshaping the business landscape. Not that market cares, but there were more than 210,000 new infections reported yesterday and nearly 3000 deaths as hospitalizations soar, straining healthcare capacity. Also, in the news, the Pentagon blacklists China chipmaker SMIC and oil producer CNOOC in a reaction to a long history of Chinese espionage complaints.
Trends are most certainly bullish, and although all my trades are long positions, I’m becoming more and more concerned about the overextension I see so many stocks. Trade with the trend but guard yourself against overtrading and chasing already extend stocks. As yesterday’s vaccine news triggered the end of the day, whipsaw reminds us just how sensitive this market is and how quickly significant profits can disappear.
On Thursday, all 3 major indices put in indecisive Doji-like candles at the all-time highs, but failing to great out of resistance. Even the lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims number did not help. On the day the SPY was on the red side of flat (-0.03%), the QQQ on the green side of flat (+0.14%), and the DIA was mildly positive (+0.28%). The VXX rose just under one percent to 17.41 and T2122 rose again to 91.16, deep in overbought territory. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.911% and Oil (WTI) rose a bit to $45.65/barrel.
The DOJ sued FB Thursday, claiming the company has been discriminating against American workers by reserving 2,600 high-wage jobs for only foreign temporary visa holders. PFE stock was also fell when a report came out the company only expects to ship only half (50 mil. doses vs. 100 mil.) of the Covid-19 vaccine that was originally planned and promised by year end. The cause was said to be “supply chain problems” (raw materials that were not below standard). After hours, the Pentagon blacklisted 4 Chinese firms, including SMIC and CNOOC (adding them to the same list a Hauwei).
On the stimulus front, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader McConnell met to further discuss stimulus Thursday. McConnell said afterward that there were hopeful signs of reaching a deal before year-end. While McConnell still claims to back only half the amount the Democrats and a bipartisan Senate group propose, the main sticking point seems to be McConnell’s insistence the bill include blanket Covid-related liability waivers for businesses
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,532,196 confirmed cases and 282,829 deaths. Thursday saw another record 218, 576 new cases and 2,918 deaths. That said, the 7-day average of new cases is at 176,145 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,876/day. CA expanded on the Los Angeles lockdown, implementing regional “Stay at home” orders in areas of the state where the remaining ICU bed capacity has fallen below 15% of normal.
Globally, the numbers rose to 65,664,051 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,514,619 deaths. In Asia, Hong Kong reports it is undergoing a “fourth wave” and Seoul South Korea is increasing restrictions in the city to fight what the Mayor reports is a “desperate crisis” as the country reported the highest increase in cases since March. Elsewhere, Tokyo reports that COVID-19 has raised the budget for the Olympics from $2.7 billion to $15.3 billion.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. South Korea (+1.31%) and Taiwan (+1.11%) led the gainers. Losses were more modest and Japan (-0.22%) and Malaysia (-0.39%) are typical of the losses. In Europe, markets are almost green across the board. Only the DAX (-0.16%) has failed to “get with the bull program” so far today. The FTSE (+0.82%) and CAC (+0.36%) are typical with no exchange moving one percent yet. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to modestly higher open. The DIA is implying a gain of 0.48%, The SPY a 0.38% higher open, and the QQQ a 0.33% open up. However, remember we have a lot of data between now and the open.
The major economic news for Friday includes Imports/Exports, Nov. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payroll, Nov. Participation Rate, Oct. Trade Balance, Nov. Unemployment Rate, and Q-on-Q Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), and Oct. Factory Orders (10 am). There is also a Fed Speaker (Bowman at 10 am). Major earnings are limited to BIG before the open. There are no major reports after the close.
A big economic news day and hope related to stimulus talks are likely to call the tune at least early on in the day. At this point, we seem to be following Europe with an implied move to the upside. Regardless, keep in mind that we are at all-time highs, in an overbought market, and this is Friday. So, even if you don’t want to avoid weekend news cycle risk, there is a possibility that others will by day end. Just be careful.
As always, don’t predict reversals (the trend is your friend until it is broken), but also don’t chase moves you missed. Respect support and resistance, the trend, and price action. Remain disciplined to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. It’s the profits you take that pay the bills, not bragging rights of picking the very top.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SBUX, LPX, T, UAA, PINS, CMCSA, TUP, KO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
New records were set yesterday as the bulls continue their relentless drive higher. The SP-500 inked a new all-time high at the same time pandemic hospitalizations topped 100,000, and the daily death toll set a new record of more than 3100. However, the hopefulness of another $900 billion stimulus and record-setting holiday consumer spending continues to inspire higher and higher stock valuations even as the Beige Book suggests the economy is slowing. Let’s party like it’s 1999 but stay focused because a pullback could begin at any time.
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight as they reported growing services activity. European markets trade cautiously this morning, currently showing mixed results. U.S futures also appear a bit cautious this morning ahead of earnings reports and Jobless Claims.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a busy day on the Thursday earnings calendar. Notable reports include DG, KR, CM, COO, CVRL, DLTH, EXPR, KIRK, LE, MRVL, MIK, OLLI, SIG, SWBI, TLYS, TD, ZUMZ.
News & Technicals’
While we have a growing hopefulness of a bipartisan toned-down stimulus bill, the pandemic’s impacts continue to hit new records. Pelosi and Schumer have made concessions backing a $900 billion stimulus plan rather than the $2.2 Trillion plan that failed to gain traction. With a government threat of a government shutdown on December 11th and a Congressional recess just around the corner, there is not much time to get a deal passed. Yesterday, Congress unanimously passed a bill requiring Chinese companies to adhere to U.S accounting practices or face delisting from U.S. indexes. I suspect it will quickly be signed into law by the president. There may be some tough decisions for investors holding Chinese stocks and could easily create considerable volatility in their price action. Los Angeles issued a stay at home order yesterday as hospitalizations continue to spike around the country and the daily death toll hit a new daily record of more than 3100. The Chief of the CDC says the next few months could be the most difficult in U.S. history, and yesterday Beige Book hinted that the economy is slowing as a result. Keep that in mind as we continue to ignore impacts stretching the indexes higher, setting new record highs.
Technically speaking, the index trends remain incredibly bullish, and the ravenous appetite for high priced stocks continues unabated. Indeed, the record-setting holiday spending and the hopefulness of another stimulus deal could trigger a Santa Claus rally but be careful not to chase or overtrade should we suddenly decide to acknowledge the economic impacts of debit and the pandemic.
All 3 major indices gapped modestly lower at the open Wednesday on concern over stimulus and a lower than expected ADP Payroll Number (25% miss). However, the bulls stepped in and put in nice white candles for the day on talks between Democrats and Republicans over potential stimulus. The SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time high closes and the DIA is not far off. On the day the DIA gained 0.24%, the SPY gained 0.21%, and the QQQ gained 0.13%. The VXX was flat at 17.30 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell 7%, but remains overbought at 86.24. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.939% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $45.19/barrel.
CNBC reported some major economic news Wednesday. It reported that the country’s largest shipper UPS had halted package pickup Monday from many of the nation’s largest retailers, because it is experiencing system capacity problems. In part, this may be due to the shift to online shopping causing increased demand and perhaps made worse by retailers pushing discounts earlier than Black Friday in an attempt to drive more volume to ecommerce (thus “stuffing the pipe” as it were). Regardless of cause, this is a huge problem heading into holiday season and is impacting companies like NKE, GPS, LB, M, etc. UPS refused comment on whether losses of workers due to the virus had any impact. Regardless, the virus is having an impact as UPS is gearing up to ship vaccines as it has diverted resources to build ultra-freezer units within its network.
On the stimulus front, three was quite a bit of action during the day. House Majority Leader Hoyer met with Senate Majority Leader McConnell to discuss stimulus for the second time this week. A leak from that meeting said they are hoping to pass a combined stimulus and stop-gap government funding bill (to avoid a shutdown) by late next week. In the Meantime, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer said that they believe the bi-partisan $908 billion bill introduced in the Senate earlier this week should be the basis for negotiations. This comes down over a trillion dollars from their previous position, but remains over $400 billion above what McConnell wants. However, markets may be happy that at least they are talking again.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,314,265 confirmed cases and 279,867 deaths. Wednesday saw almost 204,000 new cases and over 3,000 new deaths (both record highs). That said, the 7-day average of new cases is at 167,640 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,658/day. The national number of virus hospitalizations topped 100,000 for the first time on Wednesday. Los Angeles Mayor (and county), the most populous county in the country issued a 3-week “stay at home” order during the day. He urged residents to “cancel everything” in hope that after 3-weeks the lockdown can be lifted just days before Christmas.
Globally, the numbers rose to 64,985,212 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,502,253 deaths. In Europe, the UK has Health Minister has said the PFE vaccine will begin distribution (actual jabs) as soon as Monday. He also said he hopes the AZN vaccine will also be available by Christmas. Not to be outdone, Russia has announced it will open mass vaccination centers (using their own freeze-dried vaccine) in Moscow the weekend. Germany extended restrictions through at least January 10 as they struggle to contain the surge. In Asia, Japan reported the biggest increase in new cases since early May.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on generally very modest moves. The exceptions were Malaysia (+1.85%) and Thailand (+1.44%). In Europe, the opposite is true as markets are mostly red so far Thursday. Most have moved only modestly, but there are a few showing momentum to the downside. The FTSE (-0.04%) is flat, but the DAX (-0.42%) and CAC (-0.24%) are much more typical. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a loss of 0.10%, the SPY a loss of 0.04%, and the QQQ a gain of 0.20% at this point in the premarket.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Nov. Services PMI (9:45 am), and Nov. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings releases include CBRL, DG, DCI, GMS, KR, MIK, SIG, and TD before the open. Then after the close, COO, MRVL, SAIC, and ULTA report.
Hope related to stimulus talks (Mr. Market loves him some government money)are fighting the virus surge. This likely means Jobless Claims will have the deciding vote in influencing the open. Either way, we remain at all-time highs, in a volatile situation, and the market is still overbought. So be careful.
Don’t predict reversals (the trend is your friend until it is broken) and don’t chase moves you missed. As always, respect support/resistance, the trend, and price action. Maintain that discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CGC, SNAP, BA, NIO, UBER, PSX, DKNG, SPR. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
All 3 major indices gapped higher about a percent to new all-time highs on Tuesday. However, from there we saw divergence and a different reaction. The SPY ran up and then sold off to leave an ugly high-wick Shooting Star type of candle. The DIA ran and then sold off hard closing near the lows to print an ugly high-wick, black candle. At the same time QQQ formed sort of a big-body Spinning Top closing at the all-time high close. On the day SPY gained 1.05%, the QQQ gained 1.28%, and DIA gained 0.60% (on the gap up alone). The VXX rose about a percent to close at 17.34 and T2122 climbed again to remain deep into overbought territory at 92.66. 10-year bond yields spiked all the way up to 0.929% and Oil (WTI) fell nearly 2 percent to $44.55/barrel.
After the close, CRM announced it has bought WORK for $26.79/share and .0776 shares of CRM. At the same time, CRM beat estimates on their earnings reports, but soft forward guidance caused an post-market selloff. In other corporate news TSLA gapped up over 5% on its first day in the S&P, but sold off to close up 3.10%. HPE also announced it is moving out of Silicon Valley and will relocate the company HQ to Houston.
On the stimulus front, a bipartisan group of Senators announced a $908 billion relief plan. This plan was almost immediately shot down as a non-starter by Majority Leader McConnell. However, McConnell is passing a revised version of his earlier $500 billion plan among Republican colleagues. In the meantime, House Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer sent a revised Democratic plan to their GOP counterparts. Neither McConnell nor Pelosi announced any details of their plans or how they might differ from the previously proposed plans. Both sides are espousing “hope” a deal can be done, but neither side is expressing optimism. In the meantime, Fed speakers (including Chair Powell in testimony Tuesday) continue to express concern about the uncertainty in the economy and a strong need for more stimulus.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,108,606 confirmed cases and 276,979 deaths. Tuesday saw over 182,000 new cases and 2,614 new deaths (catch-up day from holiday maybe). That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 164,488 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,580/day. The White House vaccine Czar Slaoui reported that only 15% of patients experience significant side effects from the PFE and MRNA vaccines. No additional context was offered other than it compares to 150,000-200,000 people getting infected and 1,500-2,000 people dying from the virus each day. In other vaccine news, the CDC voted 13-1 to name front-line health workers and then care homes as the priority for receiving the vaccine. The US government also announced overnight that it will pay for “dry ice” and iceboxes to store the PFE-BNTX vaccine for jurisdictions that don’t have an ultra-cold freezer. This will let the vaccine be stored and used for up to 15 days.
Globally, the numbers rose to 64,325,885 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,489,788 deaths. In Europe, the UK has given temporary approval for the PFE-BTNX vaccine and the Health Minister has said it can start being distributed next week. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany reported a record daily death toll, France has reinstituted border checks (to prevent French Skiers from returning home without a 7-day quarantine) and Russia will present its freeze-dried vaccine (which requires no refrigeration) to the United Nations today. In Asia, Japan reported a near-record number of cases, but also a record number of patients in intensive care. Perhaps not wanting to miss out on the race/news cycle, China has shown reporters its large climate-controlled warehouse filled with vaccine. They claimed they are ready to ship millions of doses of Chinese-made vaccines to 16 countries as soon as regulators in those countries approve the medicines. Among these are Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, UAE, and Indonesia.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Indonesia (+1.56%) and South Korea (+1.58%) were dramatic outliers as most Asian exchanges closed near and on either side of flat. In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean more to the modestly red side. The only significant gainer is Greece (+1.35%), however, most are modestly lower at this point. The FTSE (+0.28%) is leading, but the DAX (-0.34%) and CAC (-0.20%) are much more typical. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a loss of 0.41%, the SPY a loss of 0.25%, and the QQQ a loss of 0.24% at this point in the premarket.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes Nov. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Factory Orders (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and the Fed Beige Book (2 pm). There are also 2 Fed speakers (Quarles at 9 am and Chair Powell testifies at 10 am). Earnings reports are limited to PDCO and RY before the open. After the close GHLD, PVH, SPLK, and SNPS report.
Yesterday, we saw the bulls step in to start the month (maybe aided by stimulus hope and TSLA joining the S&P). However, we printed very indecisive candles at best. So, there was no follow-through. This comes as we sit at or near all-time highs and the market remains very overextended. Don’t predict and for heaven’s sake don’t chase moves you missed. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Maintain that discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NBR, CMCSA, AG, QCOM, VRT, VG, CELH. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
