Blog - Page 163 of 650 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Fed Members Differ as Supply Chain Slows

June 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Friday was a kick in the teeth for Bulls as the large-caps gapped down well over one percent and then markets ground sideways all day up until a strong selloff the last 5 minutes of the day. This left the QQQ holding onto the uptrend by the skin of its teeth on a black spinning top and the large-cap indices printing ugly bottom-heavy black candles. On the day, SPY low 1.67%, DIA lost 1.68%, and QQQ lost 0.78%. The VXX shot almost 9% higher to 34.69 and T2122 dropped back to mid-range at 53.15. 10-year bond yield fell strongly again to 1.441% and Oil (WTI) rose almost three-quarters of a percent to $71.56. This closed out the worst week for markets since October for large-caps, especially the mega-cap DIA.

During the day Friday, Fed members issued dueling opinions in interviews. Non-voting Fed member Bullard said he could foresee a rate hike coming as soon as 2022 with both the economic gains and inflation running hotter than expected. However, shortly afterward, voting Fed member Kaskari told an interview that he wants to keep the short-term interest rate near zero through at least 2023 (another 2.5 years). He went on to say he believes the current inflation is being caused by supply chain constraints during the opening and will subside by year end. More importantly, he said that he hopes and expects any change in FOMC policy (including bond-buying tapering) will be slow and orderly. Fed Chain Powell gets his say later this week when he testifies before both houses of Congress.

In miscellaneous business news, AAL had to cancel 180 flights (about 6% of its normal schedule) this weekend due to maintenance issues and staffing shortages. Monday is the start of AMZN’s 2-day “Prime Day” event. However, supply chain issues (backlogs at ports in China and the US) that are adding 2-3 weeks to resupply timelines are likely to cause major headaches and limitations on what is available to sell. The same holds true for BBY, COST, WMT and other retailers who have set up competing sale events. Bitcoin is down 7% (just below $33,000) so far today as China intensified its crackdown on crypto mining operations. GOOG has closed its start-up incubator campus in London, announcing they will not reopen the facility closed during the pandemic.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,406,001 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 617,166. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 11,158 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 291 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020.

Globally, the numbers rose to 179,320,883 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,883,427 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 360,464 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling but remains at 8,186 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red, some dramatically. Japan (-3.29%) was the main standout and was the down over 4% at one point. However, Australia (-1.81%), Taiwan (-1.48%) and Hong Kong (-1.08%) were among those that fell in sympathy. This came on no particular news as China’s Central Bank held rates steady as expected. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean to the green side. The FTSE (+0.03%) and CAC (+0.16%) are flat, while the DAX (+0.55%) is modestly higher at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.51% open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.33% open.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday is Fed member Williams speaking at 3 pm. There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Monday.

Interest rates are starting the week lower as the 10-year bond yield fell to a 2-month low in overnight trading. This comes as Oil is flat. Jitters seem to be the order of the day without a good explanation for the Japanese market collapse today. Europe recovered nicely from the Asian weakness, but the bears have the trend in their favor in the US.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t assume trend, support, or resistance are always going to hold. Still, the odds favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. Just keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: INSG, SNAP, BNGO, AAPL, NNOX, TQQQ, FSLY, FTNT, ARKF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Tech Giants

June 18, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The tech giants almost single handily lifted the QQQ to new record highs while China’s plan to release reserves toppled trends in inflationary stocks and commodities. At the same time, the DIA suffered technical damage in a wild price action day with a substantial whipsaw intraday. With price volatility so high, day traders likely have the upper hand, while swing and position traders may find the whips in price action challenging to downright unsavory.

While we slept, Asian markets closed mixed through the HIS rallied 0.85%. European markets are decidedly bearish this morning as the tumble in commodities continues. The U.S. futures currently point to a lower open with a very light day of earnings and economic data to provide inspiration as we slide into the weekend. Should the tech titans happen to turn south, it could be a painful day.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a very light day on the Friday earnings calendar with just 3-companies listed and only one verified report coming from GLBS, which is not particularly notable.

News & Technicals’

Commodities plunged yesterday as China announced a plan to release reserves of metals that included Copper, Aluminum, palladium, and platinum. The move caused a spike in the U.S. dollar, also affecting Gold and Silver, as well as oil and grain futures. That said, we can expect most of the prices to recover due to the rising inflation. Morgan Stanley has upgraded Occidental due to higher prices suggesting a 40% increase in the stock. Exon Mobil received a similar upgrade earlier this week. Remarkably with inflation on the rise, the 10-year Treasury note fell this morning to 1.477%, and the 30-year dipped to 2.067%, likely giving the Fed a sigh of relief. The Covid-19 delta variant initially discovered in India is now spreading around the world, becoming the dominant strain in some countries, such as the U.K., and likely to become so in others, like the U.S. The variant now makes up 10% of all new cases in the United States, up from 6% last week. Studies have shown the variant is even more transmissible than other variants.

Yesterday’s price action saw traders rushing into the tech giants lifting the QQQ to new record highs. At the same time, the DIA suffered some technical damage following through to the downside after failing its 50-day average on Wednesday. With 40% of the SPY weighted by the tech giants held its ground but fell just short of breaking back above price resistance, and though the IWM recovered substantially, it has the uncertainty of a lower high followed by a lower low. China’s action tossed a monkey wrench into inflation-related stocks breaking established trends adding another layer of uncertainty as to what happens next. One thing for sure is that price volatility and huge intraday whipsaw will keep us all guessing. Stay focused and flexible as we slide into the weekend. Happy Father’s day!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Commodities Down Again, But Less

June 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

Jobless Claims were unexpectedly high before the open and markets were a little manic on Thursday. The SPY waffled sideways all day, while the QQQ surged from open to close, and the DIA drifted lower all day. This left both large-cap indices in indecisive candles with the SPY printing a Doji that did not break through resistance and the DIA printing a Spinning Top, which may have found support. However, the QQQ printed a big white candle that closed at another all-time high. On the day, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ gained 1.27%. The VXX fell to 31.88 and T2122 dropped down just above the edge of the oversold territory at 21.13. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.514% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 1.5% to $71.03/barrel.

As mentioned yesterday, the Chinese have begun flooding markets with their metals stockpiles in an effort to combat commodity inflation. That move, plus a stronger dollar, hammered metal prices on the day as shown by Copper (-4.83%), Silver (-6.52%), and Gold (-4.72%). However, the good news on the inflation front wasn’t limited to metals. Soybean (-8.5%) have fallen 20% since May while Corn, Wheat, Sugar, and even Lumber (-9%) also fell sharply. CNBC’s Jim Cramer went so far as to say that “commodity inflation is pretty much over” (not that his opinion is worth more than anybody else’s). Still, on the other side of inflation news, related to Fed action, mortgage rates shot higher Thursday to an average of 3.25% (30-year fixed), up half a percent from February levels.

Related to corporate taxes, Ireland has said “they want a compromise” and will fight against the Global 15% Minimum tax plan that has already been agreed by the G-7 and discussed by the G-20. Essentially, the Irish Finance Minister Donohoe said that undercutting other country’s tax rates in order to get multi-nationals to hide/park their profits in Ireland is legitimate market competition. As such, his country intends to fight hard at the OECD with the help of AAPL, GOOG, and others companies who currently stash their profits in Ireland.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,377,592 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,440. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 12,697 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 316 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020. BAC joined the parade of Wall Street Banks that are demanding workers return to the office.

Globally, the numbers rose to 178,264,362 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,859,365 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 366,809 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,447 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Malaysia (+1.16%), Hong Kong (+0.85%), and Shenzhen (+0.77%) led the gainers. The losses were moderate, if wider-spread, but only Indonesia (-1.01%) showed a significant loss. In Europe, markets lean heavily to the red side so far today. The FTSE (-1.17%), DAX (-0.95%), and CAC (-0.62%) are typical of the spread as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.35% open, the SPY implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implying a dead flat open.

There is no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

Interest rates and commodity prices continued lower overnight, with some notable exceptions. However, the fall was less than Thursday, even if the trend continues. What is unknown is whether this is just a reaction to China going all-in to fight inflation, whether the market believes the Fed, or maybe something unknown is at work. All we can really say is that Thursday was a reflation trade (tech up, value down) and it seems to be setting up for something similar early today.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

FOMC acknowledged Rising Inflation

June 17, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The Fed decided to stay the course, continuing to buy $120 Billion in debt per month as the FOMC acknowledged rising inflation is more substantial than expected. Though the initial reaction to the statement brought out the bears, the bulls charged back in a late afternoon rally. The only index suffering some technical damage was the DIA which closed below its 50-day average. Long story short, stay with the trend because the market no longer cares about debt or inflation.

Asian markets traded mixed overnight, with the Nikkei slipping nearly 1% while the HIS rallied. European markets are pulling back modestly this morning across the board. Ahead of earnings, Jobless claims, and manufacturing data, U.S. futures point to a modestly bearish open after rallying well off the overnight lows. Stay focused and watch for whipsaw moves as the bulls and bears sort out dominance issues with overhead resistance levels as the battleground.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a slightly busier day on the Thursday earnings calendar, with eight companies reporting. Notable reports include ADBE, JBL, KR, & SWBI.

News & Technicals’

Eleven Republican senators now support a bipartisan infrastructure framework, which would give a bill enough votes to pass the Senate if all Democrats get on board. However, several liberal senators have signaled they could oppose the bipartisan plan, saying it does not go far enough to fight climate change or income inequality. China launched the first astronauts into space on Thursday as China challenges the U.S. in several technology areas. The bill to make Juneteenth the 12th federal holiday sailed through Congress, passing the Senate by unanimous consent with the House passing the bill just one day later sending it on to the President to sign into law. After spiking yesterday, U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower Thursday morning, with the 10-year coming in a 1.56% and the 30-year dipping to 2.179%.

The FOMC acknowledged rising inflation suggesting a rate increase is possible sometime in 2023 while at the same time continuing to buy debt at $120 billion per month. The initial negative reaction whipsawed yesterday afternoon as buyers rushed back in after the press conference. Though the SPY, QQQ, and IWM recovered substantially, the DIA suffered some technical damage closing below its 50-day average. If the highest PPI on record is of no consequence to the market and the Fed continues to grow their more than 7 Trillion balance sheet, I guess the new normal is no financial metric matters anymore! Stay focused on price action and stay with the trend as long as it lasts.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Stays Course But May Raise in 18mo

June 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets ground sideways in a nothing burger until the Fed news at 2 pm. From there, we saw a knee-jerk dive to the downside, followed by a sharp whiplash rally at 3pm that ended up fading again the last 15 minutes of the day. This left us with wicks on the downside and black bodies on the candles of the 3 major indices. However, it is fair to say the bears were more-or-less in control Wednesday. On the day, SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.77%, and QQQ lost 0.37%. The VXX rose to 32.07 and T2122 fell to 41.85. 10-year bond yields rose significantly to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $71.66/barrel.

The big news for the day was the Fed data points and words. While the Fed left rates unchanged (near zero) and continues to say there will be no rate hikes the rest of this year or next, the new “dot-plot” forecasts 2 rate hikes during 2023. However, Chair Powell told reporters that the dot-plot “needs to be taken with a big grain of salt.” In other words, he warned against taking the projection of two rate hikes in 2023 wasn’t an indication that the Fed would definitely raise rates then. Powell also told reporters that the FOMC has not made any decisions about when to start tapering their bond-buying, which many had suspected would be announced at this meeting.

In global news that impacts trading, Chinese efforts to curb commodity prices kicked into overdrive. All Chinese state-owned companies were ordered to report their futures positions (to curb speculation) and the state-owned stockpiles of metals have also started to be released to the Chinese markets. This can’t help but to have a global impact since China is one of the importers of every commodity. In an unrelated story, early today there was another major internet outage (the second in 10 days), This one, reportedly caused by a failure in the network of AKAM, took out airline websites (LUV, UAL, ULCC), a broad number of Australian Banks, the Hong Kong stock exchange, and major financial platforms like Vanguard, E-Trade, and ADP briefly.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,365,985 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,150. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,360 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 344 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). In an interesting move, the CEO of MS told all employees they must return to the office by September. This lies in contrast to other companies that have decided some jobs and some work by most positions can be performed remotely even after restrictions are all lifted.

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,878,272 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,850,411 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 374,121 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,665 new deaths per day. The WHO reported Wednesday that most of the world continues to see a decrease in new cases and deaths. However, just the opposite is true in Africa where the agency said cases rose 44% and fatalities rose 20% this week alone.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest moves. Japan (-0.93%) was by far the biggest loser with Shenzhen (+1.23%) by far the biggest gainer. However, the bulk of the region moved well less than half a percent and mostly to the downside. In Europe, with the exception of Greece (+0.21%), the entire continent is trading modestly lower at this point in the day. The FTSE (-0.40%), CAC (-0.02%) and DAX (unchanged) are typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.14% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.35% open.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and Treasury Sec. Yellen testifies at 10 am. Major earnings reports on the day include CMC, JBL, and KR before the open. Then after the close ADBE reports.

The market is still digesting and figuring out what to do with the Fed news from yesterday. The FOMC continues to say they are “staying the course” and no changes are foreseen for the next 18 months. They did forecast interest rates rising a couple of times in 2023, but Chair Powell immediately went out of his way to say, in effect, “that’s not a given, it may not happen.” So, the market sees inflation now that the Fed says will lessen in early 2022, a booming economy that isn’t quite as hot as some would like, and a Fed that says “Don’t worry, we got this.” …What is a trader to do?

As always, follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold. All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. Keep moving your stops, locking in profits, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Markets and Volatility On Pause for Fed

June 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Following a PPI that came in showing 6.6% annual inflation (the highest since annual records were started in 2010, but still better-than-expected), May Retail Sales coming in lower than expected, and a NY Empire Mfg. Index that came in worse than expected, markets opened flat Tuesday. Then after a small selloff early, they ground sideways the rest of the day. Only a late-day mini-rally took us out up off the lows. This left the SPY and DIA in black Hammer-type candles and the QQQ as a Bearish Harami. Still, both the SPY and QQQ closed at the second-highest close of all time (second to Monday only). On the day, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA lost 0.24%, and QQQ lost 0.65%. The VXX gained 2% to 31.77 and T2122 rose, but remains in the mid-range at 70.97. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $72.29/barrel.

In stock news after hours, LUV canceled 500 flights (15% of schedule) after the second straight day of computer system problems Tuesday. ORCL beat on both the top and bottom lines, but guided forward at a lower-than-expected level. The CFO of C also followed JPM’s suite from a day ago, telling a conference that they now expect a larger-than-anticipated drop (30% drop versus a year ago) in trading income this quarter. He also said that consumers have paid down loan balances and loan income will also fall. As a result, he expects revenue to drop roughly 15% year-on-year in Q2. Finally, RCL has postponed its first sailing since the pandemic as 8 crew members tested positive during cruise prep. So, all of the crew is now quarantined for 14 days and the cruise that had been scheduled to depart July 3 will sail on July 31.

Bloomberg is reporting a consensus view essentially identical to CNBC reported yesterday on the Fed’s words and actions for today. It is widely expected they will take no policy actions. However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about making a change to its policy bond-buying soon. The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also expected to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023. All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said to date. In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon. Tone will be the key as markets look to parse words.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,352,185 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,717. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,577 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 3356 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,470,620 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,839,931 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 377,371 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,770 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Shenzhen (-2.57%) and Shanghai (-1.07%) led the region lower as Chinese May Retail Sales missed expectations by 1.25%. (Still, they had 12.4% sales growth.) In Europe, markets a re mixed on flat trading as the world waits on the Fed. The FTSE (-0.02%) is flat while the DAX (-0.13%) is down slightly and the CAC (+0.09%) is up slightly. The rest of the continent is in a similar situation on slightly larger moves. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointed to a mixed, flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.15% open at this point.

Wednesday is a heavy day for major economic news, headlined by the Fed. The news includes May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, May Import/Export Price Indices (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and then Fed Interest Rate Projections (short and long-term), Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement (all at 2 pm), and the Fed Press Conference (2:30 pm). The only major earnings report on the day is LEN after the close.

Today is likely a “wait and see” day until 2 pm. Housing data early is not likely to push the market “off the fence” either way while we wait for Chair Powell and hope he can hit “the perfect note” in his statement. With that said, expect a dull day at least until the Fed announcements. Then expect an over-reaction in one direction to be followed by a whiplash back the other direction shortly after. (That is the typical Fed day pattern.) Finally, it also usually happens that there is a bit of a rethink again overnight the night following the Fed statements. So, after 2 pm, it is likely to be a volatile period into Thursday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EMR, SAND, TXN, BR, FB, QD, BNGO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

FOMC Meeting Begins

June 15, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the tech giants lifted the SPY and QQQ to new record levels almost entirely on their own as the vast majority of the stocks slid sideways or south yesterday. At the same time, new records were made, the VIX rallied slightly, and the absolute breadth index continued to decline with the lack of momentum. Hedge fund manager Tudor Jones says go all-in on inflation trades if the Fed stays the course or expect a “taper tantrum,” should they make a course correction. We will find out Wednesday afternoon what their decision will be, so plan your risk accordingly.

While we slept, Asian markets traded mixed with the Nikkei surging up 0.96% while the Shanghai fell 0.91%. However, European markets this morning work for modest gains and new records cautiously waiting on the FOMC. With a significant economic data dump, futures in the U.S. trade mixed, and flat as the Fed beings its 2-day meeting. Will they or will they not react to inflation? Market direction may well be determined by the answer at 2 PM Eastern tomorrow.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 18 companies listed, but a large number of them are unconfirmed. Notable reports include HRB, ORCL, & LZB.

News and Technicals’

New closing records in the QQQ and SPY supported almost entirely by the tech giants, with the rest of the market largely sliping sideways or south. According to Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan is hoarding cash rather than buying Treasuries or other investments due to the possibility of higher inflation that’s here to say. He is one of the first investment banks to break ranks with the idea that the spike in inflation is transitory. Hedge fun manage Paul Tudor Jones suggested to “go all-in on inflation trades” if the Fed stays the course and ignores the spike in inflation. Tudor says the market will experience a “Taper Tantrum if they do make a course correction.” Interestingly trade doesn’t seem to share the same inflation concerns, with the 10-year treasury notes falling to 1.484 this morning and the 30-year dipping to 2.176%. Could it be complacency has raised its ugly head?

Today begins the 2-day FOMC meeting and a substantial economic calendar data dump that could inspire and bring in some early price volatility. As the QQQ and SPY set new records, the T2122 indicator slid south, and the absolute breadth index declined, with just a select few tech stocks doing the heavy lifting. That said, the SPY and QQQ index charts hold fast to bullish trends. IWM remains below overhead resistance while the DIA looks tired and the most at risk if the bears find some inspiration. As we wait on the FOMC decision, choppy price action would not be a surprise. However, with PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, and Manufacturing numbers just around the corner, prepare for some early session volatility. Who knows, with so much data, the bulls or bears could find some inspiration to end this chop ahead of the Fed.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Market Waiting on Data or Fed Direction

June 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat and then the large-caps sold off all morning, before trading sideways in a tight range most of the afternoon. However, a rally the last hour of the day took stocks out very near their highs. On the other hand, the QQQ sold off early, but started a rally about 10am that lasted the rest of the day. This gave us a strong white candle and new all-time high close in the QQQ and the SPY. Both the DIA and SPY printed Hammer-type candles. On the day, SPY gained 0.23%, QQQ gained 0.96%, and DIA lost 0.24%. The VXX gained a percent to 312.12 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 55.86. 10-year bond yields rose t o 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to $71.03/barrel.

During the afternoon Monday, CEO Jamie Dimon said JPM has been “effectively stockpiling cash” rather than buying bonds or other assets. He warned that the Covid-era trading boom is coming to an end, expecting less in trading revenue this Q2 as compared to a year ago. He also said JPM disagrees with the Fed and feels “there is a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory.” As a result, Dimon says the bank has been hoarding cash and he expects the net interest income for the year to be down from $55 billion to $52.5 billion.

CNBC is reporting a consensus view on the Fed’s words and actions on Wednesday. It is widely expected they will take no policy actions. However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about changing its policy on bond-buying. The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also likely to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023. All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said in the past. In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,086,088 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,829,038 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,190 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,899 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. New Zealand (+1.07%), Japan (+0.96%), Taiwan (+0.92%) and Australia (+0.92%) paced gainers. Meanwhile, Shanghai (-0.92%), Shenzhen (-0.86%), and Hong Kong (-0.71%) led the losses. In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean green so far today. The DAX (+0.55%), and CAC (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the continent, with Norway (-1.01%) a notable exception. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying an unchanged open, the SPY implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open. It seems markets are waiting on this morning’s data or perhaps even on more insight from the Fed.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes May PPI, May Retail Sales, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), May Industrial Production (9:15 am), Apr Business Inventories and Apr Retail Sales (both at 10 am). The only major earnings reports on the day are after the close when HRB, LZB, and ORCL report.

Premarket seems to suggest that traders are waiting on more data. The inflation, sales, and manufacturing information may give us just such a push one way or the other. Just keep in mind that we sit at all-time highs, the QQQ is a little extended from its T-line, and the DIA can’t get going (is diverging from the other major indices). In short, this means markets are undecided, rotating, or at least maybe more volatile.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LLNW, LAZR, BLNK, AMAT, MP, QCOM, TDOC, SAND. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Choppy Uncertain Price Action

June 14, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Though inflation came in very hot, the bulls and bears stayed evenly matched, producing choppy uncertain price action while clinging to trends yet challenged by overhead resistance. So now we likely hurry up and wait for the FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon to see if they will be the tiebreaker of this momentum-less consolidation. Will they or won’t they begin to taper the easy money policies in response to inflation? That is the question to be answered!

During the night, Asian markets saw bullishness though some were closed due to holidays. European markets continue to push higher, setting new records this morning. With a light day of earnings and economic data, the U.S. point to a flat yet slightly bullish open, with the Nasdaq leading the way to test resistance highs. Watch for the pop the possibility of more pop and drops as we wait on the Fed.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 12 companies listed on the earnings calendar with many unconfirmed earnings to kick off the week. The only somewhat notable report I can come up with today is HEXO.

News & Technicals’

Bitcoin is surging again this morning after Musk suggests Tesla may again accept cryptocurrency as payment. However, Sygnia CEO Magda Wierzycka lambasted him saying, “What we have seen with Bitcoin is price manipulation by one very powerful and influential individual.” Regulators may block Nvidia’s attempt to buy the chip designer Arm, whose energy-efficient chip architectures are used in 95% of the world’s smartphones. According to reports, Qualcomm is now interested in investing if NVDA is blocked. The biotech firm Novavas plans to file for authorization with the FDA in the third quarter after testing their Covid vaccine is safe and 90.4% effective overall. With the FOMC just ahead, the U.S. treasury notes rose slightly this morning, with the 10-year coming in at 1.464% and the 30-year climbing to 21.52%.

Though the bullish trends continue, the choppy uncertain price action and both the bulls and bears wondering what comes next. Floating on a river of newly printed money, the bulls want to keep the party going. However, the high inflation reading in last week’s CPI has the bears concerned, keeping them in play as well. So perhaps the FOMC will be the tiebreaker when they reveal their decision Wednesday afternoon. Will they begin to taper easy money policies or keep the pedal to the metal, pumping money into the system? We will know more Wednesday after the statement and the chairman’s press conference. Until then, the choppy uncertain price action is likely to continue, with various meme stocks surging here and there as they gamify stock trading. So maybe the best description of the first part of this week is, hurry up and wait!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

QQQ Leading Again in Monday Premarket

June 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started Friday off blah and just waffled sideways the rest of the day. A last-minute rally left the QQQ and SPY near their highs for the day (SPY closing at another all-time high close). However, the SPY closed as a Doji and the DIA as a Spinning Top, showing the indecisiveness. On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.26%. The VXX fell almost 3% to 30.82 and T2122 shot back up into overbought territory at 89.57. 10-year bond yields was basically flat at 1.454% and Oil (WTI) rose three-fourths of a percent to $70.80/barrel.

During the afternoon Friday, a bipartisan panel of House Members agreed on and introduced 5 bills that would overhaul the 100-year-old antitrust laws in the US. The group found that AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and FB all hold monopoly power and the 5 bills would force those companies to exit certain businesses as well as impact the approval hurdles for companies that wish to merge or acquire other companies. While a huge step, and significant, these bills still face a LONG and rough road to becoming law. The full Judiciary Committee as well as the full House and then the full Senate would need to pass the legislation and then President Biden would need to sign. In the meantime, huge lobbying efforts and donations from those richest of companies will be working against the bills. However, smaller companies like SPOT, ROKU, and those that sell through the AAPL and GOOG stores support the changes.

Sunday, Elon Musk said that TSLA would again begin accepting bitcoin in payment for its cars. His tweet (what else would we expect) said “When there’s confirmation about 50% of clean energy usage by miners, TSLA will resume Bitcoin transactions.” In other stock news, global shipping delays have gotten so bad that HD has now leased its own cargo ship (not containers, a whole ship) to begin operations in July. This will free them from spot market capacity and rate fluctuations at the cost of large fixed costs. Each ship will have about 10,000 or so TEU (20 ft Equiv. Units) of capacity, which is about 5,000 of the 40-ft. cargo containers. RDS.A is also considering the sale of its stake in the largest US oil field, the Permian Basin (mostly in TX). The sale could generate up to $10 billion. Then early today QCOM offered to buy at least a piece of Arm (computer cpu maker) if Softbank listed the company rather than sell it to NVDA. This comes as regulators appear to be leaning toward blocking the purchase of Arm by NVDA. Finally, RIDE was down hard in premarket as their CEO and CFO have resigned.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,275,783 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 614,007. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,516 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 383 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). The first US cruise ship to resume operation had an ominous reopening. After the 7-day cruise in the Caribbean, 2 of the 500 passengers tested positive.

Globally, the numbers rose to 176,767,238 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,820,602 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,431 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 9,063 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but lean slightly green. Japan (+0.74%) leads gainers while Shenzhen (-0.62%) and Shanghai (-0.58%) pace the losses. However, the vast majority of Asian exchanges made slight moves either direct, with more on the green side. In Europe, equities are green across the board. The FTSE (+0.33%) leads the major exchanges with the DAX and CAC both at +0.17% so far this morning. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to very slightly green open. The DIA is implying a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying +0.06% open, and the QQQ is implying a small gap higher of +0.32% at this hour.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

It looks like the bulls are continuing a push in the high-tech names as the QQQ is testing all-time highs in the premarket. However, both large-cap indices are much more muted and still struggling with resistance (the SPY to pull away after breaking through and the DIA to get back to a retest). In the commodity space, dollar strength is going to give a headwind as overnight trading saw Gold down 1.2%, Wheat down 2.7%, but Oil is up 0.60%. Again, folks are looking ahead to the Fed meeting this week (where many are expecting at least more hawkish language, if not actual policy changes).

Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don’t just assume those levels will hold…they are all breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching