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Bulls Look to Open Year With a Run

January 3, 2022 by Ed Carter

New Year’s Eve saw indecisive trading in the large caps and a downtrend to the intraday action of the QQQ. All this occurred on low volume, but there was a surge of Dark Pool volume at 4 pm after normal trading had closed. This left us with a Doji DIA, Inverted Hammer SPY, and a fat-bodied Spinning Top in the QQQ. All 3 major indices were black candles and none of them failed the T-line on the day. The VXX fell almost a percent again to 18.53 and T2122 rose and remains in overbought territory at 86.54. 10-year bond yield rose to 1.512% and Oil (WTI) fell 2% to $75.45/barrel. For the week, all 3 major indices printed large high-wick Shooting Star-type candles (near all-time high resistance), which may bode ill for this coming week.

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Airlines continue to suffer, with more than 5,000 US flights canceled over the holiday weekend. (That comes to more than 15,000 total cancellations and thousands of other delays just since Christmas.) In addition to the massive wave of omicron-caused staff shortages, now bad weather has closed major airports like Chicago O’Hare. JBLU CEO told CNBC that “the next few weeks are going to be tough,” but went on to say the CDC cutting the isolation period after contracting covid (from 10 days to 5 days) is going to help a lot. (All the US airlines had urged the CDC to make that move in December as staff shortages were hurting their businesses.) Among the US airlines, LUV has been the least hit, losing only about 10% of their flights. However, even they are impacted as the FAA has slowed plane traffic (due to staff shortages) over the weekend at the company’s major hub of DFW.

TSLA reported good news on Sunday. The EV maker delivered just over 936,000 in 2021. This includes a record 308,600 in Q4. However, not all the news was good. TSLA also recalled 475,000 cars in the US over camera and trunk issues. TSLA stock is up more than 7% in premarket in reaction to the Sunday news.

JPM, C, and GS officially joined the ranks of companies that are going back to “work from home” to start 2022. This follows suit with many others across most industries, but specifically MS, BLK, and JEF among major financial institutions. In the notices, JPM and C urged employees to get a booster vaccination. JPM said they hope to be back to the office by February 1 and any unvaccinated staff will be required to take a rapid test at least twice each week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves outside of two outliers. India (+1.57%) was an outlier to the upside, while Malaysia (-1.18%) was the outlier to the downside. Beyond those anomalies, Shanghai (+0.57%), Shenzhen (+0.41%), and South Korea (+0.37%) led gainers. Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-0.53%) and Japan (-0.40%) paced the losses. In Europe, with the lone exception of the UK, markets are strongly green across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (-0.25%) is an outlier, but the DAX (+0.93%) and CAC (+1.15%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a strongly green open to the new year. The DIA implies a +0.52% open, the SPY is implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.73% open at this hour. Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are up to 1.534% and Oil (WTI) is up over half of a percent in early trading.

The only major economic news scheduled for release Monday is Dec. Mfg. PMI (9:45 am). There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before or after the market on Monday.

As we kick off the new year, markets are looking to get off to a strong start. However, despite the apparent nice open, keep in mind that we are near all-time high resistance. So, keep an eye on those levels.

Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, when you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SOFI, MRO, F, ATVI, PENN, FCX, ON, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Year-end Run

December 29, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Another day another new record as the bulls extended the year-end run, but they stumbled slightly, failing to hold it into the close. Indeed, the indexes are very extended in the short term, but the DIA, SPY, and QQQ held above new support levels. Unfortunately, volume was again anemic as the index stretched out; traders should keep in mind that it will likely diminish more as we head toward the holiday weekend as they plan forward. Nevertheless, it may be wise to capture some gains if the bears suddenly appear.

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight as pandemic developments tempered investors’ moods. European markets traded mixed this morning but mostly lower at the time of writing this report. However, here in the U.S., the bulls keep trying to hold bullishness in the futures, looking to extend for a sixth straight day.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have eight companies listed on the Wednesday calendar, with only one confirmed report coming from FCEL.

News & Technicals’

According to financial filings published late Tuesday, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has sold another 934,090 shares, or about $1.02 billion worth of his holdings, in his electric car company. Since Nov. 8, Musk has been on a selling spree. The Tesla CEO has said he is partly selling shares to pay a massive tax bill that he anticipates will amount to at least $11 billion. Musk also exercised options to buy nearly 1.6 million Tesla shares at a strike price of $6.24 per share, granted to him via a 2012 compensation package. In addition, batter rivel Northvolt said it’s the first battery of its kind to have been fully designed, developed, and assembled by a homegrown European battery company. The battery cell came off the production line on Dec. 28. Most of the world’s electric car batteries are currently made in the U.S. and Asia, but Northvolt hopes to change this. Finally, there was a little market reaction to the central bank’s 2022 policy document. It said it would monitor risks related to the foreign exchange market and do what is necessary to ensure it runs smoothly. The lira slipped as far as 12.11 against the dollar and traded at 12.03 by 0742 GMT. Despite surging more than 50% last week following state-backed market interventions, it has lost 39% of its value this year. “The CBRT has no commitment to any exchange rate level and will not conduct FX buying or selling transactions to determine the level or direction of the exchange rates,” the bank said. Treasury yields inch lower in early Wednesday trading, with the 10-year declining to 1.4739 and the 30-year trading down to 1.8942%.

The bulls continued to extend the year-end run on Tuesday but stumbled slightly, pulling back from record territory. However, there was no technical damage as the DIA, SPY, and QQQ held above new support levels by the close of trading. That said, the IWM did leave behind a rather ominous shooting star candle pattern looking like a possible failure below its 50-day-average. The question now is the direction of today’s follow-through. After such a strong upside performance on low volume, a consolidation or a pullback is not out of the question. However, the bulls seem quite resolute that nothing will stand in their way. Pandemic worries and stretched valuations don’t matter in pushing for another record. As you plan, keep in mind the risk and don’t forget to take some profits just in case the bears make a sudden appearance and expect to volumes to continue to decline as we slide into the New Year.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Markets Rest/Pause After Recent Run

December 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Large-caps stocks gapped up slightly on Tuesday and followed through for the first 30 minutes. After that, the rest of the day was a long, slow sideways grind with a slightly bearish trend. However, the QQQ did a small gap higher and immediately sold off at a slow pace for the rest of the day. Again, this was all done on very light volume. This action left the SPY as a black-bodied Spinning Top, the QQQ just missing on being a Dark Cloud Cover, and the DIA as a white-bodied candle with a large upper wick. On the day, SPY lost 0.06%, DIA gained 0.29%, and QQQ lost 0.43%. The VXX fell 2.69% to 19.17 and T2122 fell but remains in the overbought territory at 83.79. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.484% and Oil (WTI) rose a half of a percent to $76.01/barrel.

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Markets continued to rotate out of high-tech names. Meanwhile, travel stocks were amongst the strongest as the recovery from the effects of the flight cancellations continued for a second day. However, it was the mega-cap DIA that made the biggest splash as it completed 5 straight up days to close at a new all-time high close.

Elon Musk sold another $1.02 billion worth of TSLA stock on Tuesday (934,090 shares) in an effort to raise funds to pay the tax on the stock options he is exercising. However, he also exercised options giving him another 1.6 million shares during the day. So, he pocketed a billion dollars and still ended the day with nearly 700k more shares than when it started. A nice gig if you can get it.

Covid (and omicron in particular) continues to make news this week. France reported a record number with 180,000 new cases reported today. Meanwhile, the UK (same size population) reported 129,000 new cases today. However, the good news out of the UK is that the number of patients in the ICU remains very low in this latest wave and the UK Health Minister says patients are spending a relatively short time in hospital when they are admitted.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but the major exchanges leaned to the downside. Shenzhen (-1.24%), Shanghai (-0.91%), and South Korea (-0.89%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Australia (+1.21%) and Thailand (+0.72%) led the gains. In Europe, markets are mostly lower in modest trading at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.82%) is an outlier to the upside, but the DAX (-0.40%) and CAC (-0.05%) are typical of the region where just 4 exchanges show any green at all in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.15% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.494% and Oil (WTI) is down six-tenths of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Nov. Retail Inventories and Nov. Trade Goods Balance (both at 8:30 am), Nov. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled either before or after the market Wednesday..

As we grind toward year-end, volume continues to dry up. Canada will be back to trading today but expect very much the same story up North as we have seen in the US this week. With that said, beware of volatility as the very light volume gives both the bulls and the bears an easier path to pushing swings in the short term. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan…and that includes stops and/or hedges.

Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DD, AOS, AME, FMC, SEE, DOV, IR, RAD, JCI, FCX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Santa Claus Rally

December 28, 2021 by Doug Campbell

With a hefty dose of financial press hype, the Santa Claus rally is underway despite noticeably low volume. Big tech did the majority of the work, with nearly 60% of stocks still below their 200-day averages. That said, it looks like we go higher no matter the price or the very bloated P/E ratios. Stay with the trend but watch closely for bears as we press to the upside with overhead resistance levels above. The focus is clearly on buy, buy, buy, but we still can’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop or rejection of new highs like we’ve seen in the recent past. Trade wisely.

Overnight Asian markets closed decidedly bullish, with the NIKKEI leading the way up 1.37%. On the other hand, European markets are more cautious on the holiday-thinned session. With little on the earnings and economic calendar, futures have rallied off of overnight lows, with the premarket pump pointing to more records at the open. An all too familiar occurrence of 2021!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a very light day on the Tuesday earnings calendar with only one confirmed somewhat notable report from CALM.

News & Technicals’

CDC officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious two days before and three days after symptoms develop. The decision also was driven by a recent surge in Covid-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant. In addition, the change aimed at people who are not experiencing symptoms. People with symptoms during isolation or who develop symptoms during quarantine are encouraged to stay home. President Joe Biden pledged to aid governors struggling with the omicron variant of Covid-19 but acknowledged the states would need to take the lead in controlling the pandemic. Speaking just before a meeting Monday with some of the nation’s governors, Biden said: “There is no federal solution. This gets solved at a state level.” However, Biden reiterated some of the promises he made last week, including the federal government’s purchase of 500 million rapid coronavirus tests. Some of America’s best-known VC firms have difficulty recruiting people to lead their new European outposts. U.S. VC heavyweights, including Sequoia, Bessemer Venture Partners, Lightspeed, and General Atlantic, have opened new offices or started notable expansions in the last 12 months. Apple closed its stores in New York City to indoor traffic due to a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases. Customers ordering online aren’t restricted from picking up products outside retail locations. The move, which affects its locations in Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Staten Island, isn’t a complete shuttering of stores like the company has done in the past to slow the spread of the virus. Treasury Yields dipped slightly in early Tuesday trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.472% and the 30-year declining to 1.88%.

Yesterday’s rally set more new records as the financial press turned up the hype of the Santa Clause rally. Interestingly, this occurred with low volume and many stocks still trading below their 200-day moving averages. So once again, a select few tech names were able to do the majority of the lifting as the gap between the have and the have-not stocks grows. That said, it seems a forgone conclusion that the bulls will continue to push upward no matter the price and the strongly overvalued P/E ratios. However, be careful to chase already extended stocks as we approach overhead resistance levels that harbor bears.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Indices At the Highs Across the Board

December 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about a third of a percent on Monday and then continued a slow rally that lasted the whole day, closing very near the highs. This left us with strong white candles in all 3 major indices, with the SPY closing at an all-time high and the DIA and QQQ both missing that mark by just a fraction of a percent. On the day, SPY gained 1.42%, DIA gained 0.99%, and QQQ gained 1.65% on very low volumes. The VXX fell 2.4% to 19.70 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory at 93.02. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.477% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 3% to $76.00/barrel (despite being down 1.5% early in the morning session).

US airline stocks all gapped sharply lower on the weekend flight cancellation news. However, they made a nice recovery, in spite of multiple pieces of bad news. They had to cancel another 1,000 flights Monday (this time blaming winter storms). In addition, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told MSNBC that the US should consider implementing a vaccine mandate for all domestic air travel. When asked for comment on this, the White House referred to last week’s statement by the President saying the measure had been considered, but the consensus recommendation was that it was not necessary at this time. Despite gap-downs of almost 3%, AAL closed -0.49%, UAL closed -0.65%, DAL closed -0.76%, LUV closed -0.26%, and JBLU closed -0.75% on the day.

China’s 10-year bond yields fell to their lowest level in 18 months as the Chinese government promised “proactive measures” to stabilize their economy in 2022. Most analysts believe this will mean adding stimulus to stop the decline in economic growth that is being forecast to be the lowest since at least 1990. Various ministries, including the Chinese Central Bank, finance ministry, and commerce ministry all commented on the call announcing vague plans to stimulate growth including tax and fee cuts. This could have implications for the corporate world as the second-largest economy diverges from the tightening now underway in the US and west.

GS told its employees Monday that effective February 1, all employees who come in their US offices will be required to show proof of full Covid vaccination (including booster shot). This includes both employees and visitors to the offices. In addition, starting January 10, the company plans to double Covid testing to a required twice weekly for anyone entering US offices of GS. It is unclear if other banks will follow suit, but GS has been the leader which other big banks have followed on covid policy so far.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Japan (+1.37%), Shenzhen (+0.83%), and Taiwan (+0.82%) led the gains. In Europe, markets are green across the board at mid-day, with the lone exception of a slightly red FTSE. The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (+0.65%), and CAC (+0.50%) lead the region with the latter 2 being typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another modest gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.46% open at this hour.

With the bulk of traders still away on holiday (as evidenced by light volumes), the bulls had a free path to push stocks higher as we head into year-end. At least early on, this looks to be a pattern that will repeat today. With that said, beware of intraday whipsaw because, with light volume, it would not take nearly as much work to increase volatility and punish those who chase. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ARCE, GMRE, SBS, NVDA, ON, AMD, MSFT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Headline-Grabbing Record

December 27, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The SPY managed another headline-grabbing record before Christmas with a low volume push. The DIA recovered more than 1200 points on declining volume in just four trading days, with the NASDAQ surging nearly 800 points. The question to be answered is whether they can hold and prove a higher level of support. With price resistance levels above, will the bulls have the energy with spiking pandemic worries, or will we find entrenched bears ready to go back to work? Plan carefully because low-volume markets add an extra element of risk.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, with regional markets closed for Christmas. European market edge higher incautious and thinned holiday trading environment as pandemic restrictions increase across Europe. However, the U.S. markets have pre-market pump engaged with a substantial gap up at the open signaled.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

To begin the last week trading week of the year, we have a very light day on the earnings calendar with just five listed and only two confirmed. Not particularly notable reports include QIPT and AEY.

News & Technicals’

U.S. airlines have canceled hundreds of flights over the Christmas holiday, citing increased Covid cases among crews. Airlines offered flight crews extra pay to pick up trips. Carriers have asked the CDC to lower its recommended quarantine period for fully vaccinated staff. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have already started new curbs to help stop the spread of the omicron variant, mainly focusing on indoor mixing. But England has held off on adding to current stay-at-home orders and increased mask-wearing. Johnson will reportedly digest new data on Monday looking at case rates, hospitalizations, ICU figures, and deaths. The Christmas holiday has meant official figures have paused over the weekend, but the U.K. reported a new record of 122,186 infections over 24 hours on Friday. Cases of Covid-19 are likely going to keep surging as the rapidly spreading omicron variant continues to tick up across the globe, U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday. Every day it goes up and up. The last weekly average was about 150,000, and it likely will go much higher,” Fauci said on ABC’s “This Week.” Chinese authorities will allow full foreign ownership of passenger car manufacturing beginning Jan. 1, 2022. According to a release Monday from the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planning agency. Treasury yields slide lower in early Monday trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.4807% and the 30-year ticking lower to 1.880%.

Stretching out last Thursday on light holiday volume, the SPY managed to squeak out another headline-grabbing record before Christmas. The question for today can they hold these price levels with pandemic infection numbers spiking around the world, making for some challenging holiday travel. Nevertheless, index technicals have improved, with only the IWM languishing below the 50 and 200-day averages. However, getting above the averages is just the first step, and now we need to see some proof they can find some price support and hold above them. Expect volume to be lighter than usual this week due to the holiday unless the bears get active, increasing fear. As we challenge resistance levels in the DIA and QQQ, and IWM, we can’t rule out the possibility of entrenched bears. After such a huge point gain in just 4-days the long risk is high, so plan your risk carefully as we make our way toward the new year.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Scrubbed Flights and Good Holiday Sales

December 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw a modest gap higher with about 15minutes of follow-through. The rest of the day was a dead market grinding sideways in a very tight range. However, heavy selling (or dark pool reporting) saw the biggest candle of the day give back a decent portion of the gains the last 5 minutes. This left us with white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. All 10 major sectors were green on the day with Consumer Cyclical and Industrials leading the way. However, also note that, as expected, the last trading day before the Xmas break was a low volume day. For the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.75%. The VXX lost a percent to 20.18 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 88.10. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.493% and Oil (WTI) rose more than a percent to $73.76/barrel.

Omicron is back in the news over the weekend as UAL, DAL, AAL, and JBLU had to cancel 1,600 US flights between Friday and Sunday due to covid cases among crews. While this sounds terrible, it really only accounted for about 5% of all flights over the weekend. Still, travel-related stocks are dropping in premarket on the news. In better news, the UK government released a study on Sunday that reports omicron patients are 70% less likely to require hospitalization than those with the delta variant. This falls roughly in line with a previous South African study finding omicron patients to be 80% less likely to require hospitalization. However, the news may need to be tempered by the fact that omicron is more communicable. So, in theory, there should be more omicron infections than delta cases.

Bloomberg reported Sunday that MA found that holiday (Nov. 1- Dec. 24) sales rose 8.5% versus 2020 (+10.7% from 2019). However, note that these ARE NOT inflation-adjusted numbers. So, the majority of the gains were due to price increases and not new buying. The largest gains were in apparel (47%), jewelry (32%), and electronics (16%). MA also reports that ecommerce now accounts for 21% of all holiday sales, which is equal to department store sales.

Mortgage rates fell to a four-week low this week. The 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan rate averaged 3.27% (down from 3.30%). However, refinance loan applications rose only 2% while new home purchase loan applications fell 3%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves. Malaysia (1.15%) was an outlier to the upside. Taiwan (+0.49%), India (+0.49%), and Australia (+0.44%) led gainers. South Korea (-0.43%) and Japan (-0.37%) paced the losses. In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (+0.15%), and CAC (+0.21%) are typical of the region with Denmark (+1.11%) an outlier. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a bullish gap to start the week. The DIA implies a +0.55% open, the SPY is implying a +0.62% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.85% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are flat, but Oil (WTI) is down almost 1.5% in early trading.

There are no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. Note that Canadian markets are closed Monday in Tuesday for the holiday. There are no earnings reports scheduled for Monday either before or after the market.

As we start back up from the Christmas break, it looks like the bulls are in charge as of premarket. Remember that volume is still expected to be low with a lot of big fund leaders extending their holiday another week. With that said, beware of intraday whipsaw that will absolutely punish those who chase. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Improved Technical’s, But…

December 22, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Yesterday’s significant reversal move improved technical’s for the SPY and QQQ indexes as they recovered 50-day morning averages, but overhead resistance remains a concern. So, on the one hand, the recovery was nice to see; on the other hand, it significantly increased the risk of additional whipsaws or reversals as we slide toward the uncertainty of the Christmas shutdown. We turn our attention to potential market-moving economic reports with market emotion high. Anyone’s guess how we react, but remember, the volume may quickly decline as traders take off for holiday plans. Plan your risk carefully!

During the night, Asian market trade mixed but mostly higher, with travel stocks suffering the uncertainty of rising infection rates. Across the pond, European markets trade flat to slightly positive, keeping a close eye on possible pandemic impacts. U.S. futures currently suggest moderate gains and losses at the open, facing a morning of market-moving economic data. Expect price volatility as we react and then choppy conditions due to holiday travel.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have just 12 companies listed on the Tuesday earnings calendar, with several unconfirmed. Notable reports include KMX, CTAS, PAYX.

News & Technicals’

CES, which serves as an annual showcase of new trends and gadgets in the technology industry, has attracted more than 180,000 people from around the world to a sprawling array of casinos and convention spaces in the past. However, Amazon and its smart-home unit Ring said they would not be onsite at next month’s event due to the “quickly shifting situation and uncertainty around the Omicron variant” of coronavirus. U.S. wireless carrier and conference sponsor T-Mobile also said the vast majority of its contingent would no longer be going. In addition, its chief executive would not deliver a keynote speech. The CDC currently recommends isolation for 10-days after a positive Covid test. Delta wants to cut that in half to five days. The call comes as Covid cases spike and the heavily mutated omicron variant spreads rapidly, straining testing supplies. The head of Germany’s navy said China’s rapid naval buildup underlines a desire by leaders in Beijing to project strength. Vice Adm. Kay-Achim Schonbachsaid China is increasing the size of its navy by the equivalent of the entire French navy every four years. Schonbach commented that the German frigate Bayern is docked in Singapore as part of an effort to safeguard security and stability in the region. Treasury yields ticked lower on Wednesday morning, with the 10-year trading down to 1.463% and the 30-year dipping to 1.876%.

Yesterday’s significant reversal improved technicals, with the SPY and QQQ reclaiming their 50-day averages. However, there remain questions about overhead resistance levels, and the sharp rally just increased the risk considerably for those jumping back into long positions heading into the long weekend. Today we turn our attention to the economic reports of GDP before the bell and Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, & Petroleum Status during the morning session. Hopefully, price action can calm down with these potentially market-moving reports and the high emotion shown in the price action; anything is possible! When considering positions, it would be wise to remember that volume is likely to decline as traders shut down for holiday plans putting them at risk during Christmas closure.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Stocks Came Back Tues But Look Flat Early

December 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Turn-Around Tuesday, markets gapped the opposite of Monday’s gap-down. Then, after a couple of hours of sideways waffle, they started a slow rally that lasted until stocks gave back some of the post-gap gains during the last half hour of the day. This gave us large, gap-up, white candles that closed on their highs and tested the T-line in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 1.73%, DIA gained 1.59%, and QQQ gained 2.23%. The VXX fell almost 5% to 21.66 and T2122 shot back up to mid-range at 66.32. 10-year bond yields shot up to 1.47% and Oil (WTI) jumped 4.17% to $71.47 per barrel.

A study released overnight from the American National Institute for Communicable Diseases done using South African patients has found that omicron has an 80% lower risk of hospitalization and a 70% lower risk of severe disease compared to the Delta variant. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed. Bloomberg reports that while important, at least one UK scientist fears the data may be somewhat biased by the time of year each sample set of data was taken from. (South Africa immunized 44% of its population during the time period the data was drawn from and seasons changed.) Still, for the market, this has to be seen as positive.

The World Bank reported overnight that they are forecasting a sharp decrease in GDP growth in China for 2022. They have lowered their Chinese forecast to +5.1%, which would be the slowest growth in China since 1990. For reference, Chinese GDP grew 8% this year (which itself is below the 8.1% that had been forecast in October). This slowing of the second-largest economy could have major US market implications.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board on modest moves. Only Shanghai (-0.07%) remained on the red side of flat while India (+1.10%) was an outlier to the upside. Most exchanges showed very modest green moves with Hong Kong (+0.57%) and Malaysia (+0.52%) leading the way. In Europe, markets lean toward the green side on minor moves for the most part at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (+0.09%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA implies a +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.01% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Q3 GDP (8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Nov. Existing Home Sales (both at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to KMX, CTAS, MSM, and PAYX before the open. There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

After the Tuesday rebound, beware of a dead market as we are now near the point where traders take off early to get a few extra days of holiday vacation. Intraday whipsaw has been the norm lately, but the global markets and US premarkets are suggesting traders are at least taking the day off. to put a hurt on chasers.

When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APPS, NKE, MSFT, V, ARKG, AMD, MU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Rapidly Spreading Variant

December 21, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The rapidly spreading variant engaged the bears yesterday with a nasty gap down that created new lows in the QQQ and IWM while the DIA and SPY held above early December lows. This morning the futures point to another big overnight gap putting traders willing to rush back in at high risk. However, plan your risk carefully, with volumes likely to decline heading into the Christmas shutdown and the pandemic economic uncertainty. Expect the whipsaws and overnight reversals to continue as we approach the significant overhead resistance levels.

Asian markets closed green across the board last night, led by the Nikkei surging 2.08%. European markets also want to shake off the pandemic concerns showing green across the board this morning. With another light day of earnings and economic reports, U.S. futures point to another big overnight gap keeping the risk high for those willing to rush back into the fray. Don’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop at the open and watch for head fakes and intraday whipsaws as volume contracts due to holiday travel.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 15 companies listed on the earnings calendar as we head toward the holiday shutdown. Notable reports include AIR, APOG, BB, CAMP, FDS, GIS, NEOG, & RAD.

News & Technicals’

The Biden administration will deploy 1,000 medical personnel from the military to back up hospitals if they face a wave of omicron patients in January and February. The White House also purchases 500 million at-home Covid tests that Americans can order for free through a website starting in January. On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that omicron is rapidly spreading and is now the dominant variant representing 73% of U.S. cases. In January, the Senate will vote on the Build Back Better Act despite Sen. Joe Manchin’s opposition to the bill, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced. Manchin dealt a crushing blow to President Joe Biden’s top domestic priority, which would invest in the social safety net and green-energy programs. It is unclear if Democrats will try to pass a smaller bill that includes only the Build Back Better Act. The enhanced child tax credit, which the bill would renew, expires at the end of the year. According to data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rapidly spreading omicron variant is now the dominant Covid strain in the U.S., representing 73% of sequenced cases. Omicron has displaced the previously dominant delta variant, which CDC data shows is now an estimated 26.6% of sequenced cases for the week ending December 18. Treasury Yields edged higher in Tuesday morning trading, with the 10-year trading up to 1.420% and the 30-year rising to 1.849%.

Fear of possible economic impacts from the rapidly spreading variant brought the bears yesterday, creating new lows in the QQQ and IWM. However, DIA and SPY held at lows higher than the beginning of December, providing some hope that a relief rally could soon occur. Unfortunately, the technical damage has left significant price resistance levels above that may now harbor entrenched bears willing to defend. As volume begins to contract due to the Christmas travel, the question to be answered is wheather traders weary of the wild volatility will be as willing to take the high risk of rushing back into risk. This morning futures are attempting to inspire buyers with another big overnight gap. Will it trigger a short squeeze, or could it be just another pop-and-drop trap? The risk is high so plan your risk carefully, my friends.

Trade Wisley,

Doug