The Bears were in control Tuesday as a traditionally weak September kicked off.  SPY gapped down 0.54%, DIA gapped down 0.50%, and QQQ gapped down 0.65%.  After that open, DIA sold off sharply for 45 minutes, SPY did the same for 80 minutes, and QQQ sold off sharply until 11 a.m.  From there, all three ground mostly sideways until 1:30 p.m. when the next leg down started and ran until the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us large, black candles with lower wicks.  All three major index ETFs crossed below their T-line (8ema), with SPY and QQQ also crossing below their 17ema while DIA bounced up off its own 17ema.  This all happened on average volume in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.92%) and Basic Materials (-3.67%) down hard and leading the way lower. Meanwhile, Communications Services (+0.66%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.30%) holding up better than others and being the only green sectors. At the same time, SPY dropped 2.06%, DIA dropped 1.43%, and QQQ dropped 3.04%.  The VXX spiked more than 20% to close at 53.54% and T2122 dropped out of its overbought territory and into the mid-range at 59.06. 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.833% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.28% to close at $70.40 per barrel.  So, Monday was “all Bears, all the time” as the post-holiday blues started in tech and spread everywhere.  NVDA (-9.53%) gapped down almost three percent but was down 4.67% by 9:35 a.m.  That one ticker also traded more than three times as much dollar-volume than the next biggest ticker (TSLA, -1.64%).  This meant technology created a tide the rest of the market could not swim against.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August S&P Global US Mfg. PMI came in a tick lower than expected at 47.9 (compared to a 48.0 forecast and 49.6 July reading).  Later, July Construction Spending remained the same, but that was not as good as anticipated at -0.3% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and June’s -0.3% value).  At the same time, August ISM Mfg. Employment was up to 46.0 (compared to July’s 43.4 number).  Meanwhile, the headline August ISM Mfg. PMI was up but still a few ticks below predictions at 47.2 (versus a 47.5 forecast but also above July’s 46.8 value).  Finally, August ISM Mfg. PMI Prices were up to 54.0 (versus a 52.1 forecast and a July reading of 52.9).

In Fed news, the San Francisco Fed released a report Tuesday that said it expects housing inflation to fall over the next year based on a study of supply and demand.  The paper indicated that this will likely add to downward pressure on overall inflation.  The report stated, “In recent months housing inflation has come down, but it remains well-above pre-pandemic levels and continues to account for a large share of overall inflation.”  The study found that by year’s end shelter inflation may drop to as low as 2%, before reverting next year to its 3.3% pre-pandemic average.  This led the report to conclude, “This will contribute downward pressure to inflation overall, although the extent and speed of this adjustment in shelter inflation is highly uncertain.”

After the close, ZS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, CPCAY (Cathay Pacific Airways) announced it has conducted an inspection of its entire EADSY (Airbus) A350 fleet after an in-flight failure of an engine part.  The inspection found 15 jets where the part needed to be replaced.  Later, STZ announced it will write down the value of its wine and spirits unit and take up to a $2.5 billion charge in the current quarter due to several weak quarters of US demand.  It also trimmed its revenue growth forecast from 6%-7% down to 4%-6%.  (STZ reports the current quarter results on 10/3.)  At the same time, CG announced it is picking banks to underwrite its $4.7 billion IPO of its Acrotec Zurich unit.  Later, Reuters reported that multiple analysts tell it INTC is likely to be dropped from the DIA after the chipmaker stock has fallen 60% this year.  (This would trigger further sales as funds that own all DIA components would be forced to sell their INTC positions.)  No timeline was given.  However, the underlying DJIA does rebalance weights at the end of each quarter.  So, September 30 would seem a logical candidate date. 

Elsewhere, at the same time, the Unite Here union announced its strike at MAR, HLT, and H hotels in Seattle and Baltimore has concluded after three days.  However, the strike at hotels from the same chains in seven other cities will continue.  In other union news, the CWA union (Communications Workers of America) withdrew from mediation with T, saying the process was just a delaying tactic by the company.  17,000 of T’s workers have been on strike for more than two weeks.  After the close, CRM announced it had agreed to acquire Tenyx (an AI-powered voice agent technology startup) for an undisclosed sum.  Also after the close, Reuters reported the US gasoline futures fell 6% Tuesday (the biggest one-day loss since July 2022) to their lowest level since December 2021.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US (Medicare) will still pay at least twice as much for the prescription drugs where it has negotiated prices for the first time compared to what other high-income countries pay.  The lower prices will save the US $6 billion in 2026 but are still far higher than many countries with national health systems pay.  At the same time, NFE announced it has received US Dept. of Energy authorization to export liquified Natural Gas to “Non-FTA” countries (i.e. countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US).  NFE said it is expecting incremental revenue growth from its sales to Latin America, Brazil, and Jamaica for example.  Later, ABNB asked New York City to reconsider regulations for short-term rentals that went into effect a year ago.  The company said the rules had caused it major issues (an 83% decline in ABNB rental postings for stays of less than 30 days in NYC) while having virtually no impact on the apartment vacancy rate (at least according to the data ABNB cited).  After the close, the SEC announced that six credit rating agencies have agreed to pay $49 million in civil penalties over failures in recordkeeping and reporting. This includes the three major agencies MCO, SPGI, and Fitch.

In mortgage news, this morning the Mortgage Bankes Assn. released its weekly look at the mortgage market. This week, they report mortgage refinance demand is up 94% as compared to one year ago as interest rates (modestly) continued to fall.  (However, this was down three-tenths of a percent from the week before.)  The national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan mortgage was a 6.43% last week, down one tick from the week before.  New home purchase loan mortgage applications were also up 3% for the week, but that was still 4% lower than one year prior.  Overall, this led to a 1.6% increase in mortgage applications from the previous week.

Overnight, NVDA (as well as other companies) was subpoenaed by the US Justice Dept.  This is part of a DOJ investigation into NVDA violating antitrust laws by making it harder for companies to switch suppliers of AI-accelerator processing units.  The investigation also is looking into NVDA sales practices that financially penalize buyers that don’t exclusively use NVDA chips.  (NVDA is far and away to market leader in this space with AMD the only competitor of significance although INTC has just recently announced a chip to compete in that space.)  Previously, DOJ had sent questionnaires to many companies in the AI space, but these are legally-binding information requests.

Also overnight, Asian markets were heavily in the red with only two of the 12 regional exchanges hanging onto green territory.  Taiwan (-4.52%), Japan (-4.24%), and South Korea (-3.15%) all suffered badly on the big chip losses in reaction to the US Tuesday leading the region lower.  In Europe, we also see a red picture with just two of the 14 bourses in the green at midday. The CAC (-0.89%), DAX (-0.77%), and FTSE (-0.57%) are leading the region down in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward some follow-through on Tuesday’s losses.  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 3.81% and Oil (ETI) has popped back 1.09% to $71.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes July Exports, July Imports, and July Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), July Factory Orders and July JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.), Fed Beige Books (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include, CIEN, CNM, DKS, DLTR, HRL, and REVG.  Then, after the close, CASY, CPRT, and HPE report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, August S&P Global Composite PMI, August Global Services PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed members Williams and Waller (twice).

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, GIII, KFY, NIO, SAIC, TTC, AVGO, and DOCU report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO.

So far this morning, CIEN and DKS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HRL and REVG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, DLTR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears continue to have control in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session. However, since that point SPY and QQQ have printed very indecisive (wick heavy) premarket candles while DIA is more decisive, but still a small candle. All three are now well below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is still bullish (although it is being pressed hard in the QQQ) and in the long-term, remains in a Bull trend with DIA and SPY still close to all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched below its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the middle of its mid-range. So, the market is not “too extended” but the QQQ will need a pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with only AMD (+1.76%) in the green. However, the the biggest dog NVDA (-1.59%) is out front leading the way lower on heavy volume (6.5 times the volume of the second heaviest dollar-volume so far today). Part of this is the news that yesterday’s drubbing took $300 billion off NVDA’s market cap and the weak hands are still abandoning ship.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a volatile, bullish day to end the pre-holiday week and month.  SPY gapped 0.45%, DIA opened 0.17% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.90%.   After the open, all three major index ETFs traded sideways until 10:50 a.m.  At that point, all three sold off, reaching the lows of the day at 12:40 p.m.  From there, all three rallied the rest of the day, spiking to new highs the last 10 minutes.  This action gave us white-bodied, Hammer-type candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three retested and passed the test of their t-line (8ema) as support and closed at the top end of their candles. This happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY, slightly below-average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the DIA. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+1.07%) and Technology (+1.03%) leading the way higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.03%) lagged and was the only sector in the red. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.95%, DIA gained 0.56%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. The VXX fell 3.01% to close at a very low 44.50% and T2122 rose slightly to remain in the top half of its overbought territory at 93.18. 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.909% while Oil (WTI) fell a bit to close at $75.55 per barrel.  So, Friday ended the week (and month) on another strong note. DIA printed yet another new all-time high and all-time high close.  For its part, QQQ also crossed back above its 50sma. 

For the week, SPY gained 0.28% and DIA gained 1.06% on their fourth consecutive week of gains.  Meanwhile, QQQ lost 0.78% on a Bearish Harami that retested and stayed above its T-line while printing the its first down week after three weeks of gains.   Looking at the month, SPY was up 2.34% on a white Hammer or Hanging Man that retested and passed the test of the monthly T-line.  DIA did the same on a 1.89% monthly gain and QQQ also followed suit on a 1.10% increase.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included July Year-on-Year Core PCE Price Index, which stayed flat at +2.6% (compared to a forecast of +2.7% and June’s 2.6% value). On a Month-on-Month basis, July Core PCE Price Index, was flat at 0.2% (versus the forecast and June reading which were both +0.2%).  On the headline side, the July PCE Price Index (Year-on-Year) also came in flat at +2.5% (lower than the +2.6% forecast but in-line with the June reading of 2.5%).  On the monthly basis, the headline July PCE Price Index was just like the Core numbers, flat at 0.2% (versus the forecast and June reading which were both +0.2%).  Meanwhile, the July Personal Spending was up, as predicted at +0.5% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and June’s +0.3% reading).  Later, the August Chicago PMI was stronger than predicted at 46.1 (versus a 45.0 forecast and July’s 45.3 value).  Shortly afterward, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported as up and also a tick better than predicted at 67.9 (compared to a 67.8 forecast and July’s 66.4 reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were up and in-line with forecasts at 72.1 (versus a July value of 68.8).  On the inflation front, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down a tick to 2.8% (compared to a forecast and previous reading of 2.9%).  Looking further out, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations stayed flat at 3.0% (compared to a forecast and prior value of 3.0%).

In stock news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that a large-scale study started during the pandemic found that NVO’s weight loss and diabetes drug Wegovy also reduced both deaths and hospitalizations from Covid-19.  At the same time, NSC announced it had reached tentative 5-year labor contracts with five unions covering thousands of its employees.  The contracts, which provide a 3.5% average annual wage increase as well as more paid time off and better healthcare must still be ratified by members of the unions.  Later, GM and LAC “agreed to delay” an additional investment from GM into the lithium miner until the end of the year.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the Chinese state-backed Sinochem is planning to sell its 40% stake in a shale oil joint venture it is part of with XOM.  The sale would end an 11-year Sinochem involvement in the shale oil business in the TX Permian Basin. 

After the close, GS announced it will lay off “a few hundred” employees as part of its annual performance review process. (In 2023, this process resulted in between 1% and 5% of its staff being let go.)  GS said this is normal and it still expects to have more employees at the end of 2024 than it did at the end of 2023.  (GS had 44,300 employees as of June 30.)  At the same time, BRKB filed with the SEC, saying it had sold another 21.1 million shares of BAC for $845 million between August 28 and August 30.  (This makes more than $6 billion of BAC that Buffett’s BRKB has sold during August.)  On Sunday, 10k hotel workers went on strike against 24 locations run by MAR, H, and HLT hotels.  The union said the strike will be multi-day and will be rolling (on-again, off-again) to cause maximum disruption until a new contract has been reached.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, India approved the $8.5 billion merger between DIS’s Indian unit and Reliance Industries.  Later, China announced that TSLA is recalling 870 imported TSLA vehicles.  At the same time, RTX agreed to pay a $200 million fine to settle allegations that the company violated US export laws by shipping product and data to prohibited countries (China).  (Among other violations, RTX gave China details about an aluminum instrument display component of the F-22 fighter aircraft.)  Later, the FDA authorized the use of NVAX’s COVID vaccine, which had been updated to fight the new JN.1 variant of the disease.  At the same time, CAH, MCK, and COR (the three largest US drug distributors) agreed to pay $300 million to resolve claims by health insurers that the companies had helped fuel the opioid crisis.   (The same companies had agreed to pay $21 billion to states and local governments to settle the same charges.)  

Elsewhere, after the close, CTLT reported that it is unable to file its annual report (which was expected on August 29) while it is waiting on the closing of the $16.5 billion takeover by NVO that was announced in February.  On Saturday, the NHTSA announced F will recall almost 91k vehicles over engine valve intakes that may break during operation.  (F will perform tests on each vehicle and replace engines as required as part of the remedy.)  On Monday, HPQ said it would continue its $4 billion lawsuit against now-deceased British billionaire Mike Lynch related to what it alleges was fraudulently-inflated value of a company HPQ acquired from Lynch in 2011.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday Bloomberg reported that the level of conviction in the economy is soaring.  It reported that August was the fourth straight month of gains in ETFs tracking for government debt, corporate debt, and equities.  That was the longest consecutive stretch of correlated gains across those assets since 2007.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is up 25% in the past 12 months…that most it has climbed in the run up to a first rate cut in history.  So, the Fed got it right and we got the soft landing we had all hoped would happen.  Elsewhere, in a deeper-dive into PCE data, Bloomberg reported that the metric economists say is a more accurate gauge of inflation, the 3-month annualized average, showed a 1.7% increase…the slowest since 2023. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only four of the 12 regional exchanges in the green.  With that said, the big movers were green as Shenzhen (+1.17%) and Thailand (+0.81%) led the gains and Taiwan (-0.64%) and South Korea (-0.61%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we nearly see red across the board with just two of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.23%), DAX (-0.38%), and FTSE (-0.48%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.48% open, the SPY is implying a -0.53% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.76% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bonds are up to 3.911% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.9% to $72.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August S&P Global US Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), July Construction Spending, August ISM Mfg. Employment, August ISM Mfg. PMI, and August ISM Mfg. PMI Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  Then, after the close, the only significant report scheduled is ZS.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get July Exports, July Imports, July Trade Balance, July Factory Orders, July JOLTs Job Openings, Fed Beige Books, and API Weekly Crude Stocks. The Thursday, August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, August S&P Global Composite PMI, August Global Services PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed members Williams and Waller (twice).

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday we hear from CIEN, CNM, DKS, DLTR, HRL, REVG, CASY, CPRT, and HPE.  Then Thursday, GIII, KFY, NIO, SAIC, TTC, AVGO, and DOCU report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO.

With that background, QQQ gapped lower to start the premarket session and has printed an indecisive, black-body candle since then that did more price back below its T-line (8ema) as that retest begins again. Meanwhile, SPY and DIA opened the early session more or less flat before trading decidedly bearish in larger black-body candles. (To be fair, both are still not down to a retest of their T-line. So the damage is not heavy.) So, the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend with DIA sitting just below all-time highs on the pre-market pullback and SPY less than a percent from its own high-water mark. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the top half of its overbought territory. So, the market could use a pause or pullback. However, remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with the the biggest dog NVDA (-2.03%) out front leading the way lower the second biggest TSLA (+0.76%) holding up by far the best.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a crazy roller coaster ride.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA gapped up a whopping 0.73%, and QQQ gapped up 0.39%.  From there, SPY and QQQ slowly and steadily rallied to the high of the day at 12:50 p.m.  Then both gave us 70 minutes of mostly sideways action.  Then the floor fell out as both SPY and QQQ sold off fast to recross their opening gaps and hit the lows about 2:50 p.m.  Then the rest of the day the Bulls and Bears duked it out in chop along the lows.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA immediately faded its opening gap, bounced up off of Wednesday’s closing price at 10 a.m. and rallied sharply until 12:30 p.m. before trading sideways in a tight range until 2:25 p.m.  At that point, it followed the other major index ETFs and sold off for 15 minutes, back down into the opening gap. From there, just like the broader index ETFs, DIA saw the Bulls and Bears chop along the afternoon lows.  At day end, DIA printed a new all-time high and a new all-time high close.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.95%) leading the way higher.  On the other side, Communications Services (-0.54%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.47%) were the two losing sectors.  At the same time, SPY eked out a 0.01% gain, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ lost 0.15%.  The VXX fell 3.57% to close at a very low 45.88% and T2122 popped back up into the top half of its overbought range at 92.57.  10-year bond yields rose to close at 3.865% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.85% to close at $75.90 per barrel.  So, Thursday was quite a whiplash with gaps higher, morning rallies, and an afternoon selloff.  All three major index ETFs printed indecisive, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles with SPY retesting and holding above its T-line (8ema) while QQQ retested from below and failed that test.  (Obviously, at its all-time highs, DIA remains well above its T-line.)  This happened on above-average volume in the DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly below expectations at 231k (compared to a 232k forecast and the prior week 233k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up to 1,868k (below the forecast of 1,870k, but up from the prior week 1,855k).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 GDP was stronger than anticipated (revised up) at +3.0% (versus a forecast of +2.8% and far better than Q1’s +1.4%).  On the cost of growth side, the Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index was two ticks higher than predicted at +2.5% (compared to a +2.3% forecast, but down significantly from Q1’s +3.1%).  At the same time, July Goods Trade Balance was worse than expected at -$102.66 billion (versus a forecasted -$97.70 billion and the prior month’s -$96.56 billion).  In terms of inventories, Preliminary July Retail Inventories were up two ticks to +0.5% (compared to a June +0.3% reading).  Later, July Pending Home Sales came in EXTREMELY LOW at -5.5% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and drastically down from June’s +4.8% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a strong decline of $71 billion to $7.123 trillion.

After the close, ADSK, DELL, GAP, and MRVL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LULU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, AMRK and ULTA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

After the close, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, GEF, GES, and HPQ all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Thursday, UBER announced it will invest in UK startup Wayve to help them work with major automakers to accelerate its self-driving technology.  (The size of the investment was not disclosed.) Later, Bloomberg reported that Samsung is exploring options to acquire at least some of NOK assets.  At the same time, Japan’s Nippon Steel announced it plans to invest and additional $1.3 billion in two of X’s steel mills (assuming their acquisition is approved).  Later, OKE announced it would buy $5.9 billion worth of mid-stream assets, including a 43% stake in ENLC to bolster its Permian Basin and mid-continent competitive position. At the same time, the Teamster union said that AMZN workers across GA, CA, KY, and NY will be joining the 100 AMZN drivers from IL that have been striking since June. 

Meanwhile, MRO shareholders voted in favor of COP’s $16 billion acquisition.  Later, Reuters reported that DELL is attempting to sell its SecureWorks cybersecurity unit again.  (DELL failed to find a buyer for the unit in 2019 and 2020.)  At the same time, Reuters also reported that AAPL and NVDA are both in talks about joining the next round of funding of OpenAI as they seek to gain (AAPL) or improve (NVDA) their AI offerings.  After hours, Reuters reported that bearish leveraged ETFs tied to NVDA saw a +446% surge in buying (net long the levered bearish bet on NVDA) between NVDA’s May 21 earnings and its reported Wednesday evening.  (This could be coincidence or indicate a change in sentiment on the market leader.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, EIX announced it will seek CA Public Utilities Commission approval of a settlement agreement related to 2017 and 2018 natural disasters.  If approved, EIX might be able to recover $1.6 of the $2.7 billion in losses it paid.  Later, a LMT and RTX joint venture was awarded a $1.3 billion contract to produce Javelin missiles for the US Army. Meanwhile, the US 6^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against GM, saying the company must face a class-action lawsuit related to selling 800,000 vehicles with faulty transmissions.  After the close, LUNR announced it had won a $117 million contract from NASA. 

Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that the Netherlands plans to limit ASML’s ability to repair and maintain its equipment that had been sold to China, by not renewing the licenses required for ASML to do that business when they expire at year end.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the Pentagon is withholding $5 million per F-35 jet as deliveries of those jets has resumed.  The price per jet is $82.5 million and withholding $5 million is intended to push LMT to solve the problems that had caused a months-long stoppage of F-35 deliveries.  (F-35s account for 27% of LMT sales.)  Later, NDAQ agreed to pay $22 million to settle CFTC charges that its former energy contract unit failed to perks offered to certain traders as well as making false and misleading statements to the regulator. 

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, two AI startups (OpenAI and Anthropic) signed deals with the US government for “research, testing, and evaluation of AI safety.”  At the same time, Freddie Mac reported that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate fell to 6.35%.  This was the lowest average since early May 2023.  Later, rating agency Fitch issued a report saying that US fiscal policy is unlikely to change, regardless of which major candidate wins the Presidential election.  This was released as part of the agency affirming the US credit rating of AA+. 

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Shenzhen (+2.38%) was way out front leading the region higher, followed by Malaysia (+1.53%), Hong Kong (+1.14%), and Singapore (+1.13%).  In Europe, we see a similar but not clean sweep as three of the smaller bourses (out of 14) show red at midday.  The CAC (+0.34%), DAX (+0.17%), and FTSE (+0.26%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move higher ahead of PCE data.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.75% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down slightly to 3.858% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, and July Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Aug Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to JKS and MNSO.  Then, after the close, there are no significant reports scheduled.

So far this morning, JKS and MNSO missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FRO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket session. However, all three have also printed small-body, indecisive candles since that point as traders wait on PCE data. The gap took QQQ back above its T-line, so all three are above their respective 8ema at this point. So, the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend with DIA sitting at all-time highs and SPY less than a percent from its high-water mark. In terms of extension, SPY and QQQ are fine relative to their T-line, but DIA is getting a little stretched above its own. In addition, the T2122 indicator has popped back up into the top half of its overbought territory. So, the market could use a pause or pullback. However, remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with the INTC (+3.18%) out front and AAPL (+0.52%) the laggard. With all of this said, remember its Friday, pay day, and we are at month end as well as sitting in front of a 3-day weekend. So, prepare your account for the holiday weekend news cycles and don’t forget to take profits.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets sold off most of the day with the Bulls rallying to recover some ground during the last two hours.  SPY opened 0.06% lower, DIA opened 0.08% lower, and QQQ opened 0.10% lower as markets started the day little changed.  However, from there, QQQ immediately started to sell off.  Meanwhile, SPY and DIA chopped sideways until 11:10 a.m., when they got the message and followed QQQ in a selloff.  All three major index ETFs reached their lows of the day at 2 p.m., at which point a market wide rally began that lasted into the close.  This action gave us a black-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA which retested and passed the test of its T-line (8ema).  At the same time, SPY and QQQ were much larger-body, black, indecisive candles with SPY testing and staying above its T-line while QQQ fell down through its 8ema (and just barely held onto its 17ema). 

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.24%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.23%) leading the way lower ahead of NVDA earnings.  On the other side, Financial Services (-0.04%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.60%, DIA lost 0.41%, and QQQ lost 1.18%.  The VXX spiked up 5.62% to close at a still low 47.52% and T2122 fell out of its overbought territory, but remains in the top end of its mid-range at 75.68.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to close at 3.839% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.03% to close at $74.75 per barrel.  So, Wednesday technically saw a selloff followed by a bounce.  However, it really was a waiting game as the market anticipated the NVDA earnings.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three, with QQQ coming the closest to average and SPY coming in the furthest below its average.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday were limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories, which came in with a much lower than expected drawdown of -0.846 million barrels (compared to a forecast of a 2.700-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 4.649-million-barrel drawdown).

In the big news of Wednesday, NVDA beat on both lines.  The company reported a 154% surge in data center sales and “robust AI demand” that resulted in $30.04 billion in sales for the quarter (versus a $28.68 billion consensus forecast).  On the bottom line, NVDA delivered $0.68of earnings, again beating the $0.64 estimate.  NVDA also announced guidance of Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion (plus or minus 2%), which exceeded the $31.9 billion average estimate prior to the announcement.  In addition, NVDA said the board had approved an additional $50 billion share buyback program.  However, NVDA stock fell 5% in after-hours trading as it seems traders are concerned more about potential problems with NVDA’s next big AI money-printer (Blackwell) than they were elated by the big beats and big new buyback program from the green giant.

In Fed news, after the close Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic it was “time to move on.”  Essentially, Bostic was saying with inflation down farther (than before) and the unemployment rate up more than he anticipated, it was time to get to rate cuts.  Still, he then hedged his bets saying, “I don’t want us to be in a situation where we cut, and then we have to raise rates again: that would be a very bad outcome.”  He went on to say, “If I’m going to err on one side, it’s going to be waiting longer just to make sure that we don’t have that up and down.”  (So, it’s time to get to rate cuts…but I’m not sure…and it may not be time.  Very insightful.)

After the close, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, GEF, GES, and HPQ all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Wednesday, SMCI delayed the reporting of its quarterly earnings on the heels of Tuesday evening’s report from short-seller Hindenburg, which alleged the company has “glaring accounting red flags.” (SMCI stock was hammered on the news.)  At the same time, SEC filing showed that BRKB sold an additional $982 million of BAC over August 23, 26 and 27.  Despite the sale, BRKB remains the largest shareholder of BAC, still holding almost 904 million shares.  In unrelated news, BRKB also became a member of the “Trillion-dollar market cap” club, becoming the first non-tech company to reach that milestone.  At the same time, DKS disclosed that it had found unauthorized third-party access to its IT systems (found a hack) which had exposed “certain confidential data.” Later, GOOGL announced it has updated its AI (Gemini) for image creation to fix inaccuracies such as the wrong number of fingers, etc.  The revised version will be made available later this week.  At the same time, UAL flight attendants voted to authorize a strike by a 99.99% margin.  Later, after the close, Bloomberg reported that BIG is considering filing for bankruptcy due to a persistent decline in sales.  (BIG shares fell 20% after hours on the report.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, AVAV announced it had been awarded a $990 million contract from the US Army to build SwitchBlade drones.  At the same time, DIS announced it had won approval for the $8.5 billion merger of its Indian media assets with Reliance Industries (large Indian media company).  To secure the approval, the two firms had to promise not to raise advertising rates on the cricket matches the merged company will broadcast.  Later, the NHTSA announced it closed two separate investigations into now bankrupt Fisker’s Ocean SUVs after the startup issued recalls to fix problems with door malfunctions and a loss of braking. At the same time, KVUE (maker of Tylenol) won a ruling by a US District judge, which preempts a consumer’s lawsuit under NY State law.  (The case alleged packages labeled “Extra Strength” and “Rapid Release” had been found to not relieve pain better or faster than the “Regular Strength” version, and in fact took longer to act.) 

Elsewhere, META lost a lawsuit in Brazil, which alleged the social media company accepted ads that used the name of a Brazilian department store (without the store’s permission) to fraudulently deceive consumers.  META faces a $3.62 million fine as a result of the loss but has the right to appeal.  After the close, the Fed announced new capital requirements for US banks (following the recent stress tests).  The Fed agreed to reduce GS’s required capital cushion from 6.4%, which the test suggested was needed, to 6.2% after GS lobbying.  Later in the evening, YELP sued GOOGL alleging the search giant used its search monopoly (as found by federal ruling) to dominate local search and advertising. 

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, WFC issued a commodity investor advisory noting that the rapid increase in supply of liquified natural gas poses a substantial risk to natural gas prices through the end of the decade.  The report said WFC expects the annual growth of LNG supply to grow 10% per year in 2026 and 2027, while exceeding 8% annually in 2028 and 2029.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just four of the 12 regional exchanges above break-even.  Malaysia (-1.29%), South Korea (-1.02%), and New Zealand (-0.94%) paced the losses while Shenzhen (+0.94%) was by far the biggest gainer.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape with just three of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.72%), DAX (+0.65%), and FTSE (+0.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.53% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.19% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down slightly to 3.833% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $74.77 per barrel in early trading.

So far this morning, BBY, BURL, and CM have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TITN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, BIRK, DG, and GMS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, July Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), July Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed member Bostic (3:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AEO, BBY, BIRK, BF.B, BURL, CPB, CM, DG, GMS, OLLI, PSNY, and TITN.  Then, after the close, AMRK, ADSK, DELL, GAP, LULU, MRVL, and ULTA report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, Aug Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on JKS and MNSO report.

With that background, SPY and QQQ gapped down to start the premarket in the NVDA results and fears. QQQ in particular has been volatile in the early session. Meanwhile, DIA made a modest gap higher to start the premarket. Since that start, all three major index ETFs have printed large white-body candles in the early session. DIA is back trading a new all-time highs this morning. SPY retested and is now back above its T-line, At the same time QQQ remains below and DIA remains above their respective 8emas. All three sit on the green side of flat from Wednesday’s close. So, despite Wednesday’s pullback, the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, SPY and QQQ are fine relative to their T-line, but DIA is getting a little stretched above this morning. However, even though it has pulled back some and is out of the overbought territory, the T2122 indicator remains at the top end of its mid-range. So, again the Bears might have a little more slack to play with than the Bulls this morning. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. (In a volatile market, that may mean sitting on your hands.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green with the biggest dog NVDA (-4.24%) acting as an anchor, apparently on “sell the news” trader thinking.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was a sideways day as it seems the market is waiting on NVDA earnings Wednesday evening.  SPY gapped down 0.23%, DIA opened down 0.14%, and QQQ gapped down 0.35%.  However, after the opening bell, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily back across the gap and reached the highs shortly after 11 a.m.  From there, all three drifted lower and slowly drifted back up toward the highs in a sideways grind.  All three closed in the upper part of their candles.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with DIA printing a Hammer or Hanging Man type.  DIA also eked out a new all-time high close while QQQ retested (and passed the test) of its T-line (8ema).  This happened on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-0.89%) out front leading the others lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (+0.29%) and Financial Services (+0.19%) held up better than the rest of the market.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.13%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.30%.  VXX was down almost 2% to close at 44.99% and T2122 fell but remains in its overbought territory to close at 83.76.  10-year bond yields rose to close at 3.831% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.23% to close at $75.68 per barrel on the lack of escalation in the Middle East.  So, Tuesday was a blah day that felt as if traders were waiting on the NVDA earnings (or maybe Friday’s PCE data) to figure out their next move.  On the other hand, it’s possible most of the traders (or at least the big money traders) took the week off ahead of the Labor Day holiday.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence, which came his stronger than expected at 103.3 (compared to a forecast of 100.9 and a July reading of 101.9).  That reading was a six-month high. Then after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report showed a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown of 3.400 million barrels (versus a forecasted 3.000-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 0.347-million-barrel inventory build). 

In Fed news, Reuters reported Tuesday that both the Chicago and NY Presidents (Goolsbee and Williams respectively) voted in favor of a quarter-point rate cut in the Discount Window rate at the July FOMC meeting.  The other 10 voters had voted to hold rates steady.  While not exactly tied to the Fed Funds rate, the Discount Window rate (what banks pay to borrow from the Fed overnight) is a good indicator of where monetary policy is headed.  This provides additional detail to the Meeting Minutes summary that was recently released. 

After the close, JWN and PVH reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, the CEO of RYAAY (Ryanair) told Reuters that the new management of BA “continue to disappoint” and that deliveries are behind schedule.  He said, “Things are continuing to slip slightly, it’s been disappointing” as he noted his airline now expects to take delivery of just 20-25 of the 737 MAX planes (rather than the 29 they had ordered) during the summer of 2025 after receiving 5 of 10 jets they had expected in July 2024.  At the same time, LLY announced a 50% price cut on the single-dose vials of its blockbuster Zepbound obesity and diabetes drug.  The price cut was part of LLY’s announcement of the new single-dose size of the drug.  Later, XPEV announced it has priced its first budget EV “MONA” starting at $16,813 (without auto-driving technology).  It also launched a $21,866 model uses a self-driving technology very similar to TSLA’s “full self-driving.”  At the same time, BUSE announced it has agreed to acquire smaller rival CFB for $916.8 million in cash.  (The deal creates a combined regional bank with $20 billion in assets in the Kansas City to Denver to Phoenix to Dallas area.)

Elsewhere, META announced it is closing the augmented reality studio intended to be used by third-party creators so they could make content for the company’s whole “Metaverse” vision.  The release said the funds would be rerouted into other priorities, notably AI.  After the close, Reuters reported that the options on NVDA imply that its earnings reports Wednesday evening will result in a $300 billion swing (positive or negative) in the company’s market cap.  That would be about 9.8% of the company’s $3.11 trillion market cap as of Tuesday’s close.  It would also dwarf the entire market cap of 95% of the S&P 500 members. At the same time, the NFL announced it had voted to allow private equity firms to buy up to a 10% stake in NFL teams.  The first firms approved include ARES, BX, CG, TSLX, and other unlisted firms.  Later, WMT announced new third-party seller services very similar to those offered by AMZN (fulfillment by Amazon). WMT will offer sellers import, warehousing, and shipment services ahead of the holiday selling season.  At the same time, the AP reported that two workers were killed and a third seriously injured when a tire exploded at a DAL maintenance facility at the Atlanta airport.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the highest court in DE said it will hear an appeal from GSK, who is seeking to reverse a lower court ruling that allows more than 70,000 lawsuits alleging Zantac caused cancer to proceed. Meanwhile, the US DEA postponed its decision on reclassifying cannabis until December, after the election.  (Pot stocks such as CGC, TLRY, and GTBIF all fell sharply on the delay.) At the same time, the Dept. of Agriculture announced that a genetically-modified wheat developed by BIOX is safe to grow and breed in the US.  After the close, the CFTC (US commodities market regulator) announced it has ordered TTE to pay $48 million in fines for attempting to manipulate benchmark European gasoline futures.  Also after the close, the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) announced that at least three of the eight major retailers it investigated are now charging a fee to process any transaction where the consumer is given cash back from a credit or debit card charge.  The three are KR, DLTR, and DG.  (Others surveyed, but not charging the fee include ACI (which KR is trying to acquire), CVS, WBA, TGT, and WMT.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Malaysia (+1.39%) and Taiwan (+0.84%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.02%) was by far the biggest loser.  In Europe, 12 of the 14 bourses are in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.35%), DAX (+0.58%), and FTSE (+0.03%) lead the region higher in earlier-than-usual afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 6 a.m., the Futures are just waking up and are pointing to a start just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a +0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this early hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down a little to 3.82% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.03% to $74.73 per barrel in early trading.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, July Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary July Retail Inventories, July Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic.  Finally, on Friday, we get July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, Aug Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AEO, BBY, BIRK, BF.B, BURL, CPB, CM, DG, GMS, OLLI, PSNY, TITN, AMRK, ADSK, DELL, GAP, LULU, MRVL, and ULTA.  Finally, on Friday, JKS and MNSO report.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday are limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Waller (1:15 a.m.) and Fed member Bostic (6 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to ANF, BBWI, CHWY, DCI, FL, HMY, SJM, KSS, LI, PDCO, and RY. Then, after the close, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, GEF, GES, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO report.

In miscellaneous news, on Federal Housing Finance Administration said Tuesday that, in June, the average US single-family home price fell by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis.  On an annual basis, those prices rose 5.1% through June, which was the smallest year-on-year increase in nearly a year (since July 2023). This annual increase is a significant change from just a month earlier, when the annual increase through May was revised up to +5.9%.  Elsewhere, one of the last bright spots in the Chinese economy took a hit Tuesday when PDD (which own deep-discount online retailer Temu) missed analyst estimates. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the CEO of PDD mentioned eight different times during his earnings call that “revenue and profits must inevitably decline” as economic growth slows (referring to the Chinese economy).

Overnight, Fed Governor Waller was in India.  He pushed back on the feasibility of interlinking instant payment systems across the globe.  (That is a pet idea of India’s central bank Governor Das.)  Waller expressed concerns over whether domestic fast payment systems can practically be linked.  In addition, he indicated he was not sure it was even something worth attempting.  Waller said, “Variation around the world in domestic fast payment network adoption means that the value of globally interlinked systems is not yet clear.”  Waller went on to cite the potential costs, operational complications, increased costs to banks, and additional oversight needed to make such a global system feasible as hurdles to such as system.  Despite all his concerns, Waller said the US remains committed to researching new technologies and ways to enhance cross-border payment systems.

With that background, and earlier than normal for this report, all three major index ETFs are giving us white-body, indecisive Doji-like candles so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs sit just on the green side of flat from Tuesday’s close. However, there is also nothing to indicate the wait on NVDA or PCE data or after the holiday has subsided. All three are above their T-line and the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. Remember that DIA sits at all-time highs while SPY is less than half a percent from its own. QQQ remains the laggard, sitting 5.4% from its own all-time high. In terms of extension, none of the three are stretched above their T-line. However, even though it has pulled back some, the T2122 indicator is still in its overbought range. So, again the Bulls could use a little more rest or pullback. However, keep in mind that the market can remain overdone longer than you can stay solvent predicting turns. Remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. (In a volatile market, that may mean sitting on your hands.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are modestly in the green with the biggest dog NVDA (+0.30%) leading the way higher in percentage and dollar-volume of stock traded. The second-biggest dog, TSLA (+0.04%) lags that group so far this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was a bit of a Bull trap.  SPY gapped up 0.19%, DIA gapped up 0.18%, but QQQ opened 0.08% lower. Initially, DIA rallied to new highs during the first hour. However, SPY and especially QQQ sold off sharply for that first hour.  DIA followed them in a much more modest selling the second hour.  From there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways in waves along their lows the rest of the day.  With that said, DIA did manage to print a new all-time high and new all-time high close by about 80 cents.  This action gave us a white-bodied, Shooting Star candle in the DIA, a Dark Cloud Cover candle in the SPY, and a black-bodied Bearish Doji Continuation Pattern in the QQQ.  All three were done on below-average volume, although DIA was close to average.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.18%) way out front (0.72%) leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Cyclical (-1.00%) led the five laggards.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.24%, DIA gained 0.22%, and QQQ lost 0.97%.  VXX was flat, closing at 45.90% and T2122 fell but remains in the top of its overbought territory to close at 95.68.  10-year bond yields rose to close at 3.82% while Oil (WTI) spiked 3.11% to close at $77.16 per barrel on the massive Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.  So, Monday was a case of DIA reaching for the all-time highs while the tech-heavy QQQ and still-tech laden SPY lagged.  (NVDA -2.25% traded 3.5 times more dollar volume than the next closes stock, which was TSLA -3.23% followed by AMD -3.22%.  So, both the QQQ and SPY were pushing a rock uphill all day.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday was limited to July Durable Goods, which came in MASSIVELY higher than expected at +9.9% (compared to a +4.0% forecast and a June reading of -6.9%).  On the “core” front, July Core Durable Goods actually showed weaker than predicted at -0.2% (versus a 0.0% forecast and June’s +0.1% reading). 

In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin told a Bloomberg podcast he thinks the prior tight labor market has companies engaging in a “low-hiring, low-firing” approach. (In other words, they have so much trouble finding employees, they have just hired fewer but are reluctant to fire them for fear of not being able to replace them later.)  Barkin expressed fear that this could lead to a rash of layoffs later, when companies can’t take the bad financial returns if the economy softens.  However, it could also lead to a new rash of hiring if the soft landing moves ahead.  Either way, he doesn’t think the current situation will last.  Barking said, “Either demand will continue and people will start hiring again, or you will start to see layoffs.”   He continued, “We are in a low-hiring, low-firing, mode. That does not feel like something that is going to persist. It is going to move left or it is going to move right.”  Barkin went on to indicate that he is likely pointing toward a quarter-point rate cut in September that would allow the Fed to “test-and-learn” as they gauge the impacts of rate cuts on the economy. 

ILater, San Francisco Fed President Daly told Bloomberg, “The time is upon us (to cut rates.) … (It’s) Hard to imagine anything that could derail a September rate cut.”  She went on to say, “We haven’t seen any deterioration yet in the labor market.” However, she also said the Fed may have to go to a half-percent cut, rather than a quarter-point, saying, “If the labor market weakens more than anticipated, we would need to be more aggressive (than the traditional quarter-percent cuts).” 

After the close, HEI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, TCOM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Monday, the CEO of SEDG stepped down and was replaced by insider Ronen Faier.  Later, NSC announced that all embargoes associated with the Canadian rail shutdown have been lifted.  This effectively ends the impact of the Canadian rail strike on freight shipment.  However, it may take a few weeks to recover (get backlogs worked down) from just that short disruption.  After the close, META announced it struck a deal with Sage Geothermal to supply its datacenters with 150 megawatts by 2027 (or roughly enough power for 38,000 homes).  No terms were released.  Later, SHEL announced it plans to shutdown portions of its Zydeco pipeline in LA for 3-4 days starting on September 24 for maintenance.  (The pipeline ships 375k barrels of crude per day from Houston to the state of LA.)  The oil giants released very different forecasts Monday.  XOM said it expects oil demand to stay where it is through 2050 while BP said it expects oil demand to be 25% less than XOM by 2050.  (Hence, XOM, the top US oil producer is expanding production while BP plans to cut production to less than half of XOM’s output by 2030.)  Elsewhere, AAPL officially announced it will hold its new product launch on September 9, when the company is expected to release new versions of iPhones and Apple Watches.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, it was announced a US District just had received (after the close Friday) and approved a price-rigging settlement involving GS, BASFY (BASF), HSBC, and London-based ICBC bank.  The four defendants agreed to pay $20 million to settle a case for rigging the price of platinum and palladium over a six-year period ending in 2014.  At the same time, IAC agreed to pay $8.5 million to settle FTC charges it continued billing customers after they had cancelled memberships at care.com from 2019 to 2022.  Later, UBER was fined $324 million in the Netherlands for sending the personal information of Dutch taxi drivers to the US over a three-year period.  At the same time, Canada announced it is imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (including TSLAs). 

Meanwhile, after the close, BK agreed to pay $5 million to settled CFTC charges for repeatedly failing to report swap transactions, violating a previous order to do so. At the same time, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 in favor of allowing TSLA to sue the state of LA over its law that bans the direct sale of cars to consumers (as opposed to doing so via a dealer).  Later, the NLRB ruled that CMG illegally refused to give raises to workers that had unionized, while doing so to other employees and also not negotiating with their union representatives.  At the same time, a federal judge rejected a banking-industry challenge to rules adopted by the CFPB that requires lenders to gather demographic data on small business borrowers.  (The idea is that so long as the data is not collected the banks cannot be charged with discriminatory lending practices.)  Elsewhere, JPM was sued in a proposed class-action suit over sweeping customer’s idle cash into their “unreasonably low” interest rate accounts.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red as seven of the 12 exchanges posted losses.  Shenzhen (-1.11%) and New Zealand (-1.10%) were by far the biggest losers while Malaysia (+0.81%) was by far the biggest gainer.  In Europe, we see a similar mixed picture at midday with only six of 14 bourses (CNBC has stopped sharing Russian exchange results) in the green.  The CAC (-0.03%), DAX (+0.20%), and FTSE (+0.33%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, SPY is implying a -0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.85% and Oil (WTI) is off by 0.53% to $77.01 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to BMO, BNS, and SCSC.  Then, after the close, YY, JWN, and PVH report.

So far this morning, BNS reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings line.  At the same time, BMO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller and Fed member Bostic.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, July Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary July Retail Inventories, July Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic.  Finally, on Friday, we get July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, Aug Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ANF, BBWI, CHWY, DCI, FL, HMY, SJM, KSS, LI, PDCO, RY, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, GEF, GES, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO report.  On Thursday, we hear from AEO, BBY, BIRK, BF.B, BURL, CPB, CM, DG, GMS, OLLI, PSNY, TITN, AMRK, ADSK, DELL, GAP, LULU, MRVL, and ULTA.  Finally, on Friday, JKS and MNSO report.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday BAC analysts reported that CTAs (trend-following funds) still have potential for systematic buying. It reports that an early-August pullback by the market gave entry signals to those CTA funds, which began buying.  According to the BAC model, the trend suggests buying into the end of the month at least under their median projections.  Elsewhere, the Commerce Dept. reported Monday that new orders for non-defense capital goods (a proxy for business spending) fell 0.1% in July and the June number was revised down to +0.5%.  (The initial estimate for June had been +0.9%.)  Essentially, this means businesses spent slightly less on equipment in July.  Finally, Bloomberg reports that Mpox is running ramped in Africa.  Hundreds have died and thousands have been hospitalized by virus.  Coming just four years after the COVID-19 global pandemic, the WHO is understandably worried and has issued its highest alert level.

With that background, all three major index ETFs are giving us indecisive, Doji-like candles so far in the premarket. QQQ retested its T-line (8ema), and so far has passed the test by staying above. However, all three are essentially flat from Monday’s close. All three are above their T-line and the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term bearish trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are stretched above their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is still in the top end of its overbought range. So, the market Bulls could use more rest or pullback. However, keep in mind that the market can remain overdone longer than you can stay solvent predicting turns. Remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. (In a volatile market, that may mean sitting on your hands.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green with only AAPL (-0.26%) and META (-0.02%) in the red. NFLX (+0.55%) leads the pack while the biggest dog NVDA (+0.17%) has traded 3.5 times as much dollar-volume than any other ticker again this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets ended the week with a bullish move. SPY gapped up 0.61%, DIA gapped up 0.40%, and QQQ gapped up 0.93%.  From there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways with an early afternoon slump followed immediately by a mid-afternoon rally that lasted into the close. This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ printed white, Spinning Top, Bullish Harami candles.  Meanwhile, DIA just printed a gap-up, strong white-bodied candle that not only closed near the highs, but within nine cents of the all-time high close.  This all took place on average volume in the DIA, as well as slightly below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.15%) out front leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, even the laggard Consumer Defensive was up 0.65%.  SPY gained 1.05%, DIA gained 1.07%, and QQQ gained 1.08%. VXX dropped 5.98% to close at 45.94% and T2122 spiked back up to the top end of its overbought territory to close at 97.91.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.799% and Oil (WTI) popped 2.59% to close at $74.90 per barrel.  So, Friday saw a Bull recovery from Thursday’s profit-taking.  This was perhaps on the basis of Thursday’s Fed voter comments indicating a rate cut could be on the way in September or perhaps on the VP Harris DNC performance.  Regardless of reason, after the gap up, markets sold the news from Fed Chair Powell’s presentation (which more or less confirmed what the other Fed members had said Thursday).   However, that did not last long as an afternoon rally took us out higher…especially in the DIA.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday was limited to July Building Permits, which came in a bit stronger than expected at 1.406 million (compared to a forecast of 1.396 million and a June value of 1.454 million).  Later, July New Home Sales came in much stronger than predicted at 739k (versus a forecast of 624k and June’s reading of 668k). 

In Fed news, Fed Chair Powell all but confirmed a September rate cut.  Powell said, “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”  On the topic of inflation, he said, “My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.”  On the employment situation, Powell pointed out, “It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”  Putting the two Fed mandates together, Powell said, “The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.” 

Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also signaled his support for a September rate cut, telling CNBC, “Everything we wanted to happen to get rates down has happened.”  He continued, saying the current policy would be appropriate to cool and overheating economy, but currently the economy “is not overheating.”  He went on to say, “I don’t think inflation will get stuck above 2%.”  He also noted “warning signs” about employment (specifically citing the July Nonfarm Payrolls data).  In a separate interview with Bloomberg, Goolsbee basically flat out said he’ll vote for rate cuts and spent the interview discussing how fast and/or steadily the FOMC will cut.  Goolsbee said, “I don’t think it makes sense to get into a big debate (over 25 basis points versus 50 basis points).”  He continued, “little gradations like that aren’t what matters the most. What matters the most is the longer-run path of policy.” Goolsbee concluded by saying, “What will warrant the speed at which we cut rates, or how much we pause the cutting, will be determined by how the economy performs (during the cutting process).”

In stock news, on Friday, AMZN CEO Jassy said the company’s AI software had saved its software teams “4,500 developer-years.” Later, Reuters reported that MTH is talking with investment bankers exploring the sale of its Columbia Distributing unit for about $2 billion, with potential buyers including Columbia insiders.  At the same time, Reuters provided some background on the NSRGF (Nestle, the world’s largest food maker) CEO leaving Thursday. The report said that CEO Schneider was ousted unexpectedly for underperformance at a board meeting Thursday night.  Later, Chinese smartphone maker Honor (a former Huawei unit) announced it received an undisclosed investment from CHL as Honor gets ready for its planned IPO. 

Meanwhile, technology industry outlet “The Information” reported Friday that META has canceled plans for a premium version of its mixed-reality headset in response to poor sales performance of AAPL’s $3,500 Vision Pro headset.  In unrelated news, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is now targeting September 10 for the launch of new iPhone, watches, and AirPods.  After the dog and pony show, the products will be available for sale on September 20 according to the report.  Later, after the close, NSC announced it had reached a tentative, 5-year collective bargaining agreement with four labor unions.  The agreement covers 30% of NSC’s workforce and will provide 3.5% wage increases each of the next five years, as well as increased vacation, and enhancements in healthcare benefits.  Also after the close, CNBC reported that INTC has retained MS to help it fight off activist investors after the company has lost 60% of its stock value and a board member stepped down.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, Reuters reported that despite US sanctions, 11 Chinese state-linked entities have access to the most advanced chips and AI tools via contracts with AMZN cloud services.  The report states that federal agencies are considering if action can be taken. In addition, the Biden Administration is talking to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on potentially changing legislation to close the loophole.  Later, Reuters reported that JNJ that has halted the count of votes (from plaintiffs on whether or not to accept the terms of the company’s $6.48 billion settlement offer) and resumed negotiations with talc-caused cancer plaintiffs.  This comes a month after the company reported it “had” more than 75% support and would ask the judge to force remaining holdouts to accept the settlement.  After the close, UK newspaper the Telegraph reported that the British NHS is expected to reject the LLY early Alzheimer’s drug donanemab. This comes less than a week after a separate UK agency, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, had said that a different Alzheimer’s drug (Lecanemab) was a poor value for taxpayers.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with only two of 12 regional exchanges in the red.  Hong Kong (+1.06%), India (+0.76%), and Thailand (+0.73%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with five of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (+0.48%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.04% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 3.81% and Oil (WTI) has spiked to $76.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to July Durable Goods and July Core Durable Goods (8:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to PDD.  Then, after the close, BHP, HEI, and TCOM report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller and Fed member Bostic.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, July Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary July Retail Inventories, July Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic.  Finally, on Friday, we get July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, Aug Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BMO, BNS, SCSC, YY, JWN, and PVH.  Then Wednesday, ANF, BBWI, CHWY, DCI, FL, HMY, SJM, KSS, LI, PDCO, RY, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, GEF, GES, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO report.  On Thursday, we hear from AEO, BBY, BIRK, BF.B, BURL, CPB, CM, DG, GMS, OLLI, PSNY, TITN, AMRK, ADSK, DELL, GAP, LULU, MRVL, and ULTA.  Finally, on Friday, JKS and MNSO report.

So far this morning, PDD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the UK Maritime Operations agency said three fires have been seen on a Greek-flagged tanker in the Red Sea. The crew of the tanker was evacuated on Thursday after an attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels.  (The tanker contains 150,000 metric tons or 1,050,000 barrels of crude oil.)  Then, on Saturday, NASA made the decision to leave the BA Starliner crew at the International Space Station until they can be retrieved by a by a SpaceX ship in February.  NASA decided that it was too risky to have humans aboard the attempt to return BA’s Starliner to earth.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped modestly higher to start the premarket. However, they are diverging just a bit since that start. SPY and DIA both are giving us small white-bodied candles in the early session. Meanwhile, QQQ has printed a slightly larger black-body candle that is fading its premarket gap. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is still strongly bullish. At the same time, the mid-term bearish trend is bullish. In the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, SPY and DIA are a bit stretched above their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is up at the top of its overbought range. So, the market is in need of more rest or pullback. However, keep in mind that the market can remain overdone longer than you can stay solvents predicting turns. Remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. (In a volatile market, that may mean sitting on your hands.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split, led by the biggest dog NVDA (+0.67%) and lagged by META (-0.63%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Mr. Market gave us a Bull trap on Thursday on all-day profit-taking after a strong two-week rally.  The SPY gapped up 0.33%, DIA opened 0.18% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.48%.  However, that was pretty much it for the Bulls for the day. From there all three major index ETFs sold off the rest of the session.  This action Black-bodied, Bearish Engulfing candles in all three. However, all three of them also remain above their T-line (8ema).  It also gave us a higher high in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  Still, once again this took place on below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.82%) way out front leading the others lower.  On the other side, Financial Services (+0.09%) held up better than the others and was the only green sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.78%, DIA lost 0.37%, and QQQ lost 1.59%.  VXX popped 4.20% to close at 48.86% and T2122 dropped back out of its overbought territory and back into the top end of its mid-range to close at 73.58.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields popped to 3.865% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.42% to close at $72.94 per barrel.  So, Thursday we had reversal (or more likely a profit-taking day ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s presentation set for Friday at 10 a.m.  

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which were just as expected at 232k (compared to a 232k forecast and up just a bit from the prior week’s 228k).  At the same time, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims came in up but still below expectations at 1,863k (versus the 1,870k forecast and the prior week’s 1,859k).  Later, S&P Global Mfg. PMI was a bit light at 48.0 (compared to a 49.5 forecast and the July 49.6 reading).  At the same time, S&P Global Services PMI were a bit stronger than predicted at 55.2 (versus the 54.0 forecast and the July 55.0 value).  This gave us an S&P Global Composite PMI that was also better than anticipated at 54.1 (compared to the 53.2 forecast and July’s 54.3 reading).  Later, the July Existing Home Sales were slightly better than predicted at 3.95 million (versus a forecast of 3.94 million and up from June’s 3.90 million number).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $16 billion increase on the week, rising from $7.178 trillion to $7.194 trillion.  (Note: The Fed balance sheet reduction or QT caused some market disruption when first started.  The Fed then promised to stop QT prior to wider trouble taking shape.  Since the ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England have now all also started tightening, Bloomberg speculates the Fed is regulating its own balance sheet reduction to avoid trouble.)

In Fed news, the Jackson Hole Symposium began.  Kansas City Fed President Schmid told CNBC that he has an open mind about rate cuts in September.  Schmid said, “It bears looking harder at it (the unemployment rate).  I’m going to let the data show where we lead (but) I would agree with several of my colleagues that you probably want to act maybe before (inflation) gets to two (percent) but that sustainability toward two I think is really important.”  Later, Boston Fed President Collins indicated she feels it will soon be appropriate to cut interest rates. Collins said, “We’ve seen quite a lot of reduction in inflation. The reduction to me is consistent with more confidence that we are on that trajectory and with labor markets healthy overall, I do think that soon it is appropriate to begin easing.”  She also seemed to signal that quarter-point rate cuts are the way to go, saying “I think a gradual, methodical pace once we are in a different policy stance is likely to be appropriate.”  By mid-morning, Philly Fed President Harker told Reuters that as of now he is ready to cut rates in September.  Harker said, “For me, barring any surprise in the data we’ll get between now and then, I think we need to start this (rate cut) process.”

After the close, BBAR, NDSN, SNOW, TBBB, URBN, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, A, CAAP, and SNPS reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings. However, BMA missed massively on both the top and bottom line.

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that Japanese company Softbank is in serious talks to invest $684 million in SHCAY (Sharp electronics).  At the same time, AMKAF announced it is evaluating but has not decided upon contingency strategies in Canada after the two top Canadian freight railroads (CP and CNI) locked out their employees and shut down operations Thursday.  Later, research firm Jato Dynamics reported that BMWYY (BMW) overtook TSLA to become that largest-selling electric vehicle maker in Europe in July.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CME and SPGI are in discussion about the sale of their OSTTRA joint venture. (Bloomberg says the joint venture is values between $2 billion and $4 billion.)  Later, AAP announced it had struck a deal to sell its Worldpac unit to CG for $1.5 billion in cash.  At the same time, WMT announced it has partnered with QSR (Burger King) to offer meal discounts to the retailers paying members.  The move is designed to let WMT to better compete with AMZN Prime. 

Meanwhile, F announced it had cancelled its planned 3-row electric SUV. (That vehicle had been scheduled to roll off assembly lines in 2025.)  Later, the PARA buyout saga continued as private media veteran Bronfman raised his bid from $4.3 billion to $6 billion.  At the same time, miners TECK and RIO joined the crowd of companies looking for alternatives after the Canadian rail shutdown.  The two said they would need to truck some products and defer shipment on many commodities.  (They mainly produce iron ore, aluminum ore, copper, and molybdenum in Canadian mines.  The diamonds RIO mines there are not shipped by rail.)  Later, Reuters reported that ELH is in talks with private equity firms TPG, KKR, and others over a potential sale.  ELV (an insurer) is also among the suitors.  At the same time, ACDVF (Air Canada) pilots voted to authorize a strike.  (Any strike cannot take place prior to a 21-day “cooling off” period.)  After the close, GM and UBER announced a multi-year partnership to deploy Cruise robotaxis on the UBER platform.  (UBER already has a similar deal with GOOGL’s Waymo unit in Phoenix, AZ, which has been in operation since October.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced that GM has agreed to recall 1,200 Cruise robotaxis over hard braking issues.  Later, Reuters reported that AAPL will change how users choose browsers and other default apps (in the EU only) in response to European Digital Markets Act.  (This will end the billions of dollars in fees GOOGL previously paid AAPL to have Chrome be the default browser on iPhones and iPads.)   At the same time, a Washington DC Appeals Court ruled to revive an antitrust lawsuit against AMZN that had been brought by the district. The suit alleges that AMZN pricing policies (restrictions on third-party sellers and their own suppliers) illegally stifle competition.  Later, GOOGL announced it has struck a “first in the nation” deal with the state of CA to fund newsrooms in the state in exchange for ending legislation that would have forced GOOGL and other tech giants to pay in order to distribute new content generated in the state.  The plan calls for GOOGL to pay $15 million the first year, while the state will pay $30 million.  During the next four years, CA’s contribution drops to $10 million per year while GOOGL’s increases to $20 million per year.  (The deal was immediately criticized by journalists because it will help create AI tools to support journalists, which they feel will replace journalists with computers.) 

Meanwhile, after the close, NASA said it expects to announce the decision on how the two-person BA Starliner crew will be brought back to earth on Saturday.  The crew has been stranded at the International Space Station since the start of June after the glitchy Starliner leaked helium propellent before, during and after it travelled to the ISS.  Also after the close, the Financial Times reported that AZN has warned it would seek to relocate its vaccine manufacturing site to the US (from the UK) amidst a negotiation deadlock with the UK over a planned cut in state aid. (The previous Conservative party administration had pledged $118 million in grants for the operation, but the new Labour government, which was left with a broken budget, has said it expects to cut the grants to $53 million under newly-required austerity measures.)  Later, the NRLB determined that AMZN is a “joint employer” of subcontracted drivers who delivered packages for the company in CA.  This ruling came after an unfair labor practices charge resulted in an investigation by the agency.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves with just four of the 12 regional exchanges showing red.  Thailand (+1.03%) was the outlier and leader of the gains while Malaysia (-0.36%) had the worst showing.  In Europe, the picture is even brighter with just one bourse in the red against 14 in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.53%), DAX (+0.57%), and FTSE (+0.33%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, at 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.35% open, the SPY is implying a +0.51% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.75% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have backed down to 3.848% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% to $73.96 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to July Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), and July New Home Sales (10 a.m.).  We also head from Fed Chair Powell at 10 a.m. as the Jackson Hole Symposium also continues.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GFI.  Then, after the close, there are no major earnings reports schedule.

So far this morning, UI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assn. reported that US companies increased their borrowing to finance equipment in July.  The report stated that July credit for equipment by US companies were up 11% from June’s $10 billion figure. Elsewhere, after the close, the Canadian government stepped in to end the freight rail shutdown in the country.  The government ordered the railways and union to enter into binding arbitration.  However, according to the AP, it’s uncertain how quickly the workers will return to work.  Still, the Canadian Labour Minister said he expects the trains to be running again within days. CNI said they had ended their lockout within an hour of the government’s order. However, there was no word from CP as of 9 p.m. eastern.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket and have given us white body candles since then. QQQ is the most volatile of these, showing what looks like a fat-bodied Spinning Top at this point while the others have little wick. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is still strongly bullish despite Thursday’s candle. Meanwhile, the mid-term bearish trend remains broken, though one could argue a new mid-term bullish trend has not formed yet (due to a lack of higher high to go with yesterday’s higher low). In the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, the pullback Thursday helped relieve much of the stretch above the index ETF T-lines. At the same time, the T2122 indicator has dropped back out of its overbought territory and is in the upper end of its mid-range. So, the market has room to run either direction. However, the Bears have more slack to play with Friday. Remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. (In a volatile market, that may mean sitting on your hands.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning, led by the biggest dog NVDA (+1.30%) and followed by the second-biggest dog TSLA (+1.067%). Meanwhile, NFLX (+0.43%) is the laggard. Finally, remember its Friday. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to take profits. After all, Friday is payday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday brought more indecision and rest.  SPY gapped up 0.20%, DIA opened 0.18% higher, and QQQ opened up 0.16%.  From there, all three major index ETFs wandered back and forth across their gaps all day long.  This action gave us Spinning Top candles in all three, with SPY and QQQ both having white bodies and DIA having a small black body.  All three also remain above their T-line (8ema).  It also gave us a higher high, higher low, and higher close in SPY and QQQ while DIA got the higher high and higher close coming up a touch short on the low front. Yet again, this took place on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green as both Basic Materials (+1.48%) and Consumer Cyclical (+1.43%) were well out in front leading the others higher.  On the other side, Communications (+0.01%) and Energy (+0.04%) lagging well behind the other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.10%, and QQQ gained 0.47%.  VXX climbed 1.56% to close at 46.89 and T2122 climbed back up well into its overbought territory to close at 90.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.801% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.85% to close at $71.82 per barrel.  So, again on Wednesday we had an indecisive, yet bullish day.  Perhaps it could even be seen as a pause or rest day.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which had a much larger-than-expected drawdown of 4.649 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 2.000-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 1.357-million-barrel inventory build).  The Bureau of Labor Statistics also released the US Payrolls Benchmark.  While widely referred to as a revision of the Nonfarm Payroll data, it really is not.  It actually is the difference between two sets of data which are derived from completely different sources. At any rate, the release was a -818k number (compared to three of the last four benchmark releases, which were each +400k to +500k).  This release was interpreted as the Nonfarm Payrolls data released monthly having over-estimated job additions by 818k jobs this year.  Theoretically, this would mean that the job market started cooling much sooner than widely noticed and could give the Fed more evidence that a rate cut is needed.  (Side note: Bloomberg reported that at least three major foreign banks, MFG, BNPQY, and NMR obtains the report early by directly calling the BLS.)

In Fed news, on Wednesday, July’s Fed Meeting Minutes were released.  The minutes summarized the opinion of FOMC voters as leaning toward a September rate cut…if the data continues as it has been trending.  Specifically, the minutes said, “the vast majority of policymakers observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” The report also noted that “many participants” felt the current stance was restrictive and argued that if inflation data continued to show cooling, holding rates as they are would increase the drag on the economy.  It said that all the voters were on board with rates being held flat at the July meeting.  However, also saying “several” indicating recent inflation reductions and increases in joblessness “had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range 25 basis points at this (July) meeting or that they could have supported such a decision.”  Finally, the report noted a “dwindling camp” of FOMC members still feared that premature easing could rekindle inflation. 

After the close, BBAR, NDSN, SNOW, TBBB, URBN, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, A, CAAP, and SNPS reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings. 

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported rumors that WMT plans to sell its #3.74 billion stake in JD.  At the same time, Reuters reported multiple analysts were telling clients that OXY had reached “Buffett Put” territory.  (In other words, OXY has fallen to a price, below $60, where BRKB has routinely bought millions of shares.) Later, Bloomberg reported that OKTGP is in exclusive talks and near a deal to acquire RILYN for undisclosed terms.  At the same time, Reuters reported that BN is working with UBS and BAC to arrange financing to acquire GRFS.  Later, after the close, HAL reported that it was hit by a cyberattack.  The extent and impact of the attack are not yet determined.  At the same time, TD announced the sale of 40.5 million shares of SCHW, which reduces its ownership of SCHW to 10.1%.  Later, MSFT reworked its business units and announced the changes at an investor presentation Wednesday.  MSFT lowered what it now called its “Intelligent Cloud” unit forecast by as much as $5 billion for 2024 (from a high estimate of $28.9 billion to a new low estimate of $23.8 billion).

Elsewhere, it is widely expected a lockout (or, if not, strike) will stop Canadian railroads as of today.  CNI and CP are both expected to participate in the shutdown.  This could have major impacts on many businesses such as CF, NTR, CHRW, GLNCY, MERC, as well as oil, coal, and automakers. (Update: The shutdown did take place. So, all Canadian rail transportation is offline. For anyone unfamiliar with Canada, this is the vast, vast majority of all freight movement in the country. Canadian population is heavily centered on a handful of cities with a relatively sparse road network between, but the vast distances crossed by rail. The fact that most of those cities are found at a seaport or near the US border also makes Canadian rail freight problematic for US companies.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, India’s Commerce Minister Goyal accused AMZN of predatory pricing practices. However, he stopped short of announcing any investigation or charges.  (Many time in the past, Goyal has attacked AMZN and WMT-backed Flipkart of actions that are detrimental to India’s brick-and-mortar stores.)  At the same time, the NHTSA announced a new recall of 9,100 Model X sport utilities over a roof trim that could separate.  (This is the second such recall over the same issue since 2020.)  Later, Reuters reported that the UK’s competition watchdog has now shutdown its existing investigations of AAPL and GOOGL related to their app stores.  Sources told Reuters the agency is waiting on new UK laws covering digital markets. 

Meanwhile, C told Reuters it has added a new section to its SEC quarterly reports in response to SEC queries.  (The SEC fined C $136 million for a lack of progress in fixing its data management issues in mid-July.)  Later, after the close, TD announced it expects to finalize a settlement of both civil and criminal money laundering investigations by the end of the calendar year.  In anticipation of fines and other non-monetary penalties, TD says it will take an additional $2.6 billion provision in its Q3 results.  Also after the close, DB announced it had reached settlements with more than half of the plaintiffs who had accused the bank of underpaying them related to the acquisition of Postbank years ago. (Details of the settlements weren’t disclosed.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Only five of the 12 exchanges in the region were in the red as Shenzhen (-0.82%) was by far the biggest loser.  On the other side, Hong Kong (+1.44%) and Japan (+0.68%) led the gainers.  In Europe, a much rosier picture is taking shape with just two spots of red among the 13 green bourses at midday.  The CAC (+0.22%), DAX (+0.30%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the morning. The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.829% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $72.29 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), July Existing Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The Jackson Hole Symposium also starts at 8 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, BIDU, BILI, BJ, CSIQ, IQ, NTES, PTON, TD, VIK, and WSM. Then, after the close, BMA, INTU, ROST, and WDAY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get July Building Permits, and July New Home Sales.  The Jackson Hole Symposium also continues.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from GFI.

So far this morning, BILI, BJ, BWLP, PTON, TD, and WB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BIDU and VIK missed on revenue while also beating on earnings.  On the other side, AAP and IQ beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CSIQ and NTES missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, we see some divergence in the premarket. DIA opened and has remained flat in the early session. Meanwhile, SPY gapped up slightly and has followed-through with a modest white-body candle in the premarket. However, the big mover was QQQ which gapped lower but was met with buying and has printed a large white-body candle without wick in the early session. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is still strongly bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term bearish trend is broken, though one could argue a new mid-term bullish trend has not formed yet (due to a lack of higher low in the strong run higher). In the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, as I mentioned all three are stretched to the upside relative to their T-line. The T2122 indicator has now back up in its overbought territory. So, again, the market needs a pullback or at least a rest to maintain a healthy trend. However, remember that the market can stay overextended a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal. So, keep the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning, led by the biggest dog NVDA (+1.19%) while NFLX (-1.49%) is the lone laggard. It might be worth noting that NVDA has also traded five times the dollar-volume as the next largest trading stock this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were undecided on Tuesday.  SPY opened down 0.07%, DIA opened 0.12% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.16%.  At that point, SPY and QQQ rallied to recross their opening gap and reach the highs by 10 a.m. From there they sold off reaching the lows 45 minutes later and then bobbing along those lows until 1 p.m. when they rallied to recross the gap again by 2:25 p.m. and then recross it once more in a slow modest slide into the close.  For its part, DIA had a similar path for the day but with much less magnitude of waves.  This action gave us indecisive, black-bodied Doji-type candles in all three major index ETFs. It also gave us a higher high and a higher low than Monday by a lower open and close.  Again, this happened on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.14%) a full 1.5% out in front of the other sectors leading markets lower.  On the other side, Healthcare (+0.05%) was the only sector in the green. Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA fell 0.13%, and QQQ lost 0.21%.  VXX popped 3.92% to close at 46.17 and T2122 dropped back out of the overbought territory to close in the top end of its mid-range at 70.83.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.81% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 0.74% to close at $73.82 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was more of a rest and/or indecision day for traders as markets wandered around the small opening gap all day. By the closing bell, markets had small black bodies.  However, even at their extremes, none of the major index ETFs were more than half a percent from their Monday close.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks after the close, which showed a 0.347-million-barrel inventory build (compared to a forecasted 2.800-million-barrel drawdown and well above the prior week’s 5.205-million-barrel drawdown). 

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) told an Alaska Bankers conference that she is still cautious about changing Fed policy.  Bowman said, “it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive…”  However, she continued, “we need to be patient and avoid undermining continued progress on lowering inflation by overreacting to any single data point (apparently a reference to July’s 4.3% Unemployment value).”  Bowman noted doubts about data quality, saying “Increased measurement challenges and the frequency and extent of data revisions…make the task of assessing the current state of the economy…challenging.”  This led to her conclusion, “I will remain cautious in my approach to considering adjustments to the current stance of policy.”

After the close, KEYS, LZB, PAGS, and TOL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line.  Meanwhile, ALC, JKHY and ZTO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, COTY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, the PARA takeover saga continued as a new suitor made his interest official, submitting a $4.3 billion bid via the acquisition of National Amusements.  Later, JNJ announced they have agreed to buy V-Wave (a heart failure treatment maker) for $600 million up front and potentially an additional $1.1 billion in milestone payments (based on the development of V-Wave’s treatments).  Meanwhile, GOOGL announced its Waymo robotaxi unit had doubled its “paid rides” to 100k per week over three months of operation.  (Not bad considering Waymo only has 700 of its robotic taxis.)  Meanwhile, WFC announced it had agreed to sell its “non-agency third-party Commercial Mortgage Servicing” unit to private firm Trimont.  The terms of the sale were not disclosed.  At the same time, STLA announced it was delayed its investment plans for Belvidere, IL.  This came after the UAW filed grievances Monday alleging STLA has violated the terms of its November 2023 contract.  STLA denied this charge.  After the close, MCHP announced it had detected potentially unauthorized activity on its network systems that had disrupted operations at come facilities.  (The activity was seen Aug. 17 and again on Aug. 19.)  The company said it is working to bring all of its systems back online.  Also after the close, BBAI (and AI company) announced it had won a contract of up to $2.4 billion over 10 years with the FAA.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the EU announced it would slash its previously announced additional tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. For example, TSLA will pay an additional 9% tariff (much lower than the previously-announced 20.8%).  These “punitive duties” are on top of the EU’s standard 10% tariff on imported cars.  The European Commission said that the changes come after it had verified the Chinese government subsidies EV companies had received.  At the same time, the FDA approved JNJ’s “chemotherapy-free” combination treatment for a type of non-small cell lung cancer.  (This puts the JNJ treatment in competition with AZN’s blockbuster drug Tagrisso.)  Later, DIS backed down in the face of heavy bad publicity and announced it will drop its motion to dismiss a lawsuit.  Previously, DIS claimed that a user agreement accepted for a 2019 free trial of DIS+ streaming service prevented a FL widower from suing over the wrongful death of his wife.  (His wife died from allergic reaction to food served at a DIS restaurant in 2023, after the couple had informed the restaurant of the allergy and the restaurant claimed to accommodate food allergies.) Instead of forced arbitration, DIS now says the case can be decided in court. 

Elsewhere, the Dept. of Transportation announced the ALK acquisition of HA had been cleared by the Justice Dept. and was now under DOT review.  Later, the NHTSA announced BMWYY (BMW) is recalling 721k vehicles over electrical short-circuit risk due to a faulty water pump connector seal.  At the same time, the FAA has formally required the inspection of all BA 787 Dreamliner jets over the five recent “mid-air dive” reports that have been tied to pilot seat adjustment turning off the autopilot.  Later, the UK competition watchdog agency announced it had accepted META’s proposed changes to the way it uses customer’s data in advertising.  At the same time, a US Appeals Court revived a lawsuit against GOOGL.  The class-action suit alleges that GOOGL continued to collect personal data of Chrome browser users after they chose not to synchronize their browser to Google accounts.

After the close, WBD pledged to spend at least $8.5 billion to produce movies and TV shows in Las Vegas after the company received a tax incentive package.  Finally, a TX Trump-appointed federal judge struck down the FTC ban on most non-compete agreements required for employees.  (The same judge had temporarily blocked the ban in July.)  The ruling said the FTC does not have the authority to ban practices it deems as unfair competition methods, even though the agency was tasked by Congress is enforcing federal antitrust laws.  (Appeals will very likely follow, but with the uber-Republican SCOTUS, the odds of the bans coming back into effect are long at best.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again as seven of the 12 regional exchanges were in the red.  Taiwan (-0.85%) and Hong Kong (-0.69%) paced the losses while Thailand (+0.73%) was by far the biggest gainer.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.42%), DAX (+0.48%), and FTSE (+0.17%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 3.822% and Oil (WTI) is up by a fraction to $73.31 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and July FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADI, DY, M, TGT, TJX, and ZK.  Then, after the close, A, CAAP, LU, NDSN, SNOW, SNPS, URBN, and ZM report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, July Existing Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  The Jackson Hole Symposium also starts.  Finally, on Friday we get July Building Permits, and July New Home Sales.  The Jackson Hole Symposium also continues.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, AAP, BIDU, BILI, BJ, CSIQ, IQ, NTES, PTON, TD, VIK, BMA, INTU, ROST, and WDAY report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GFI.

So far this morning, ADI, DY, M, and TGT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ZK missed (massive miss) on revenue while staying in line on earnings (still a loss).

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, a research report from CBRE said that the North American datacenter capacity has jumped 70% in the last year due to the AI craze. The electrical demand of datacenters alone now stands at 3.9 gigawatts.  The report said more than 500 megawatts of new datacenter demand went online in just the eight largest US markets in the first half of 2024.  (For reference, that 500 megawatts adding in H1 was roughly equivalent to the entire data center capacity of Silicon Valley at the end of 2023.)  Elsewhere, the SEC approved (along party lines with GOP-appointed members fighting the move) the new rules proposed in June that will allow the Public Company Accountancy Oversight to hold employees, partners, contractors, and others to be held accountable for negligence if audits are found to be in violation (fraudulent).  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported Tuesday evening that the “Carry Trade” is back on but in reverse.  For many years, investors borrowed Yen in Japan at almost non-existent interest rates and “carried the money” to the US to invest in higher-yielding vehicles.  With July’s Japanese rate hike and the fall in the Dollar, traders are now borrowing Dollars to put into Japanese investments.  The idea is that speculators are betting that Japan will increase rates more and the US sill start cutting rates next month.  (I’m not sure I buy that reporting given the relative differences in US and Japanese interest rates even after Japan’s July hike.  Nonetheless, that is what Bloomberg reports.)

With that background, markets seem to be resting or indecisive again this morning. All three major index ETFs made a very modest gap higher to open the premarket, Since that point they have traded indecisively but have small white body Spinning Top candles at this time of the early session. With that said, all three remains far above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is still strongly bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term bearish trend is broken, though one could argue a new mid-term bullish trend has not formed yet (due to a lack of higher low in the run). In the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend. In terms of extension, as I mentioned all three are stretched to the upside relative to their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator has now pulled back out of its overbought territory into the top part of its mid-range. So, the market does still need a pullback or at least a rest. However, Tuesday’s candle helped some. Just remember that the market can stay overextended a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal. So, keep the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of them are in the green, led by AMZN (+0.69%) while GOOGL (-0.60%) is the laggard. However, the biggest dog (in terms of dollar-volume traded), is NVDA (-0.01%) followed by TSLA (-0.07%), which are both undecided this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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