Friday saw some modest divergence in the markets.  SPY opened 0.20% higher, DIA gapped up 0.25%, and QQQ opened up 0.21%.  However, from that open, QQQ sold off in a very slow manner the rest of the day. It could almost have been called sideway the last couple of hours.  Meanwhile, DIA rallied significantly until 11:30 a.m. before reversing and selling off slowly the rest of the day. For its part, after the open, SPY ground sideway until 11 a.m. and then sold off very slowly the rest of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Shooting Star type candle in the DIA, a black-bodied, fat-body, Spinning Top in the SPY, and a black-bodied candle in the QQQ.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and well-below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green again with Energy (+1.60%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.56%) and Basic Materials (-0.28%) were the laggard sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA gained 0.31%, and QQQ lost 0.55%.  VXX popped higher to close at 50.73 and T2122 climbed to the middle of its overbought territory at 90.32.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.754% while Oil (WTI) climbed 1.34% to close at $68.58 per barrel. So, taken as a whole, the three major index ETFs held their serve, staying in the existing trend, which are all bullish.  DIA did fail a consolidation breakout attempt while QQQ printed a second gap-up, black-body candle.  Meanwhile, SPY continued its melt higher ending not far above where it opened Monday.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the August Core PCE Price Index (month-on-month), which came in lower than expected at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July reading of 0.2%).  On an annual basis, August Core PCE Price Index (year-on-year), was up a tick as expected at 2.7% (versus a 2.7% forecast and a tick above July’s 2.6% reading).  At the same time, the August PCE Price Index (month-on-month) was down and lower than predicted at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July value of 0.2%).  On the annual basis, the August PCE Price Index (year-on-year) was down significantly to 2.2% (from 2.3% forecast and down sharply from July’s 2.5%). At the same time, August Personal Spending (month-on-month) was also down sharply to 0.2% (versus a forecast of 0.3% and down sharply from July’s 0.5%). Meanwhile, the Preliminary August Goods Trade Balance was better than anticipated at -$94.26 billion (compared to a forecast of $100.60 billion and the July reading of -$102.84 billion).  At the same time, Preliminary August Retail Inventories were up less than expected at +0.4% (versus the July +0.5% value).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was a bit higher at 70.1 (compared to a 69.0 forecast and August reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also higher at 74.4 (versus the 73.0 forecast and August value).  In terms of future view, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 2.7% (measured against a 2.7% forecast and August reading).  In addition, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also flat at 3.1% (compared to the 3.1% forecast and August value).

In stock news, on Friday, VLKAF (Volkswagen) cut its 2024 outlook for the second time in less than three months.  The company also lowered its profit margin forecast to around 5.6% (down from a 6.5%-7.0% range set three months prior).  Later, C warned employees and contractors about tighter scrutiny as it suspect fraud and unethical behavior by both groups in terms of what the company is billed.  At the same time, Reuters reported that MS’s private equity unit is considering the sale of its HVAC firm Sila for about $1.5 billion.  Later, Reuters reported growing backlogs of rail shipments to Mexico, just as US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports may shutter.  At this point, UNP and BRKB-owned BNSF railways have stopped issuing new permits (orders) for railcar grain shipments to Mexico due to congestion in the Mexican rail system. 

Elsewhere, after the close, CNBC reported that SATS is very near a deal to sell its Dish Network to DirecTV (which is owned by T and TPG).  This comes as SATS will face a $1.98 billion debt payment in November and had just $521 million in cash on-hand as of June 30.  The deal value is rumored to be in the $9 billion neighborhood.  Later, Bloomberg reported that 16 European banks and payment processors are launching an alternative to V and MA called Wero. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the SEC announced that SAVA had agreed to pay a $40 million settlement over negligence-based non-disclosures. Later, the UK anti-trust regulator approved AMZN’s AI partnership with Anthropic and said it will not refer the matter for more investigation. At the same time, a federal judge ruled AAPL must face a lawsuit over its devices violating user privacy. The judge did throw out claims made based on the “Allow Apps to Request to Track” setting, but let claims related to the “Share Analytics” setting to proceed to trial.  Later, NHTSA announced that TM will recall over 42k vehicles over the loss of power brake assist the extended the braking distance of the vehicles.  At the same time, the NHTSA also announced that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) is recalling 27k vehicles due to the risk of the engine control software causing the engine to overheat. 

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced that MZDAF (Mazda) is recalling 77k SUVs over a software error that could cause front airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, Chinese authorities discouraged companies from buying NVDA AI chips as Beijing tried to boost its own Chinese chipmakers.  (However, this is mostly a PR move at this point since there are no known Chinese-made AI chips anywhere near as powerful as the limited ones NVDA is allowed to sell China.)  Later, the Dept. of Trans. fined ACDVF (Air Canada) $250k for operating flights in 2022 and 2023 over prohibited Iraqi airspace.  At the same time, the EU fined META $101.5 million for storing user passwords with no protection or encryption.  Later, a US District judge announced he will hold a hearing on Oct. 11 to receive the objections of crash victim’s families to the BA plea deal.  At the same time, the FDA approved a GEHC diagnostic drug used for the detection of heart disease.  On Saturday, TKO agreed to pay $375 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging the company had colluded with other martial arts groups to tamp-down the compensation of fighters.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, there were 4.6 million customers without power in the Southeast US following Hurricane Helene.  (At least 64 people were also killed.) Meanwhile, the UD Dept. of Commerce said US car sales could fall about 26k per year under proposed rules barring Chinese vehicles over software internet connection (sending data to China). For reference, US auto sales were 15.5 million in 2023 and were up about 3.5% in the first half of 2024.

In Middle East news, Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon Friday with airstrikes that leveled six hi-rise apartment buildings.  The IDF said the target of the attack was the leader of Hezbollah. However, they also destroyed a very densely-populated Beirut neighborhood.  In addition, many hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have fled as refugees to other cities and countries as well as 250k that are now living on the streets to avoid being near buildings. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly that the Lebanese people were to blame for forcing Israel to attack and kill them. He went on to say that their attacks will continue. Meanwhile, the IDF also called up reserves to the Lebanese border and is currently practicing for another ground invasion of Lebanon.

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed their leader Nasrallah had, in fact, been killed. (It is worth noting Israel also assassinated his predecessor in 1992.)  In addition, Lebanon reported nearly 1000 people have been killed and several thousand others wounded by Israeli strikes in the last week. Various EU countries condemned the Israeli attacks and called for an end to hostilities by both sides. Meanwhile, Israel rejected a cease-fire deal put forth by the US in the same way it rejected a Gaza cease-fire. On Sunday, Israel increased its bombing (terror?) campaign with more strikes in Lebanon, the West Bank (Palestinian), and also expanded with strikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen. Israel also ramped up its rhetoric threatening Iran over the weekend. The overall point, is that Israel seems to be intent on all-out regional war (with US arms and support in its back pocket).  So, the region as well as Middle Eastern oil, gas, and shipping routes are under greater threat as a broader regional conflict seems much more likely than it was a week ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were very mixed with five of the 12 exchanges in the region showing green. However, massive Chinese moves of Shenzhen (+10.67%), Shanghai (+8.06%), and Hong Kong (+2.43%) led the region higher as that country reacts to more stimulus.  On the other side, Japan (-4.80%), Taiwan (-2.62%), and South Korea (-2.13%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Norway (+0.07%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.62%), DAX(-0.63%), and FTSE (-0.76%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.78% to $67.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (8:50 a.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (1:55 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday are limited to CCL.  However, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, August JOLTs Job Openings, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AYI, MKC, PAYX, UNFI, CALM, LW, and NKE.  Then Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In overnight news, DirecTV (owned by T and TPG) finally agreed to acquire Dish Network (owned by SATS).  The move creates a network with 20 million subscribers.  As part of the deal, DirecTV will assume $9.75 billion in debt.  However, Dish shareholders will need to agree to a $1.57 billion haircut on that debt.  As part of the deal, T will sell its 70% stake in DirecTV to TPG for $7.6 billion.  (T originally bought its share of DirecTV for a little over $14 billion.) Elsewhere, more stimulus in China spiked global iron ore by 11% as Chinese cities agreed to ease home-buying restrictions.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are pushing this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket flat, but have traded lower, printing black-body candles with little wick. DIA has the smallest candle in the early session. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). Still, the T2122 indicator is back up in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-2.87%) leads the losses and has more than twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (-0.61%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Thursday, supposedly in response to MU’s beat and raise from Wednesday night.  SPY gapped 0.79%, DIA gapped up 0.50%, and QQQ gapped up 1.58%.  However, that was about it for the Bulls as the SPY and QQQ sold off until about 1:30 p.m.  At that point those two major index ETFs bounce about half way back to their open by 2 p.m. and ground sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after its own gap higher, DIA just meandered sideways around that opening level all day.  This action gave us gap-up, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  It is worth noting that SPT also printed a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. As for DIA, it printed a gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top Bull Harami inside its recent consolidation. This all happened on below-average volume in the DIA and QQQ as well as well-below-average volume in SPY.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.33%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Energy (-1.97%) lagged far, far behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.40%, DIA gained 0.60%, and QQQ gained 0.75%.  VXX closed flat at 48.48 and T2122 spiked back up into the lower half of its overbought territory at 85.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.796% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.21% to close at $67.45 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lighter than expected at 218k (compared to a forecast of 224k and a previous week value of 222k).  At the same time, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were a bit higher than predicted at 1,834k (versus a 1,828k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k number).  Meanwhile, Preliminary August Core Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) came in stronger than anticipated at +0.5% (versus a +0.1% forecast and July’s -0.1% reading).  On the headline side, Preliminary August Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) were flat at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of -2.8% and well down from July’s blowout +9.9% value).  At the same time, Q2 Core PCE Prices were exactly as expected at +2.80% (compared to a forecast and prior quarter reading of +2.80%).  In terms of Gross Domestic Product, Q2 GDP was +3.0% (versus a +3.0% forecast and well up from Q1’s +1.6%).  On the price side, the Q2 GDP Price Index was down as expected at +2.5% (compared to the +2.5% forecast and Q1’s +3.0% value).  Later, August Pending Home Sales were up, but below the anticipated numbers at +0.6% (versus a +0.9% forecast but much better than July’s -5.5% reading).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $29 billion contraction for the week, from $7.109 trillion to $7.080 trillion.

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman was contrary to what other Fed governors and FOMC members have been touting for months.  She told a Mid-size Bank Coalition of America workshop that “use of the Fed’s discount window is for emergencies, rather than for more usual liquidity needs.”  This is a start contrast to the Chair and her peers who have been trying to get more banks to use the facility more.  Bowman went on to say that she fears “unintended consequences” of banks posting collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Later, in a pre-recorded opening remarks video for the Annual US Treasury Market Conference, Fed Chair Powell recalled the “flash crash” in 2014 and praised inter-agency cooperation that got us through that as well as the pandemic crisis.  A few minutes later, NY Fed President Williams announced the creation of a new committee at the NY Fed, the Reference Rate Use Committee, to study the use of interest rate benchmarks across various financial markets.  (How the use of reference rates is changing and the underlying markets are changing due to electronic trading and globalization of markets for example.) 

Later, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr told the Treasury Market Conference that the Fed is considering new requirements for banks to improve their liquidity. He said, smaller (community) banks would be excluded but that big banks would be required to keep a minimum level of liquid reserves as well as pre-positioned collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Bass said this would be on a “tiered basis” with larger cash reserve requirements for larger banks. Shortly afterward, Treasury Sec. Yellen said that labor market and inflation data suggest the US economy is on a “soft landing path” as the “last mile” in taming inflation is bringing housing costs down.  She said, “I always believed that there was a path to a soft landing, that it was possible to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market, and to me, that’s what the data suggests has happened.”  She went on to say that U.S. deficit reduction was necessary to keep interest costs manageable over time, but added that the Biden administration thought it important to continue to invest in parts of the economy that would fuel future growth.  She continued by saying that banks are well capitalized but stressed the importance of the Fed Discount Window in ensuring stability during times of stress.

In other Fed news, Fed Governor Cook told an Ohio State University event that she whole-heartedly supported at 50-basis-point rate cut by the FOMC last week.  Cook said, “That decision reflected growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, the solid labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation continuing to move sustainably down to our target.”  She continued, “The return to balance in the labor market between supply and demand, as well as the ongoing return toward our inflation target, reflects the normalization of the economy after the dislocations of the pandemic.”  Cook went on, “This normalization, particularly of inflation, is quite welcome, as a balance between supply and demand is essential for sustaining a prolonged period of labor-market strength.”

After the close, BB, COST, and SCHL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that BB and SCHL both had massive misses on revenue.

In stock news, on Thursday, the UAW announced that it had reached a tentative deal with F related to the River Rouge tool and die unit. At the same time, MSFT announced it plans to invest $2.7 billion in Brazil over the next three years to enhance its cloud computing infrastructure.  Later, V agreed to buy British IP Group’s Featurespace unit (which uses AI to provide “payment protection”) for $935 million according to the UK’s Sky News.  At the same time, the CEO of STLA told Reuters that he wants to follow the Chinese “low-cost mindset” in its EV production.  This came even as he attacked the EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, such as those in which STLA has an ownership stake. Later, Reuters also reported that C and APOS have formed a joint-venture $25 billion private credit and direct lending program. At the same time, GOOGL announced it will invest $3.3 billion to build two data centers in SC. 

Elsewhere, IT trade news outlet The Information reported AMZN has already amassed its goal of $1.8 billion in ad-spending pledges for 2025 for its video-streaming service. In marginally noteworthy news, a major insider and top-three shareholders of DJT has sold almost all of his company stock holdings.  Andrew Litinsky sold 7.5 million shares (5.5% of DJT stock), leaving him with 100 shares.  At the same time, LUV, AAL, and DAL canceled over 1,200 flights and delayed more than 4,100 due to Hurricane Helene.  Later, Bloomberg reported that LVMHF founder Arnault had lost $24 billion of his personal fortune this year.  However, on Thursday, China gave the greenlight to massive stimulus, causing traders to bet on sales gains by his LVMHF luxury goods.  The 9.9% stock price increase netted the tycoon a +17 billion day, increasing his net worth to $201 billion.  After the close, MTN announced it will cut 14% of its “corporate workforce” and less than 1% of operational employees, as it seeks to cut $100 million in costs annually by 2026.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, WFC announced it had sent the Fed a third-party review of its risk and control overhauls.  This is a critical step toward getting the Fed to lift the bank’s $1.95 trillion asset cap, which was imposed because of WFC’s lax controls and fraudulent back-dating of accounts.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that SMCI is being investigated by the US Dept. of Justice related to its accounting practices. (The report said the investigation is just in its early, data-gathering stage.) At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM will recall over 18k vehicles over brake line problems.  Later, East Coast port employers filed a NRLB complaint against the Intl. Longshoreman Assn. for unfair labor practices. The filing alleges the union refuses to resume talks prior to its scheduled strike on October 1.

Elsewhere, the FTC issued the previously-rumored consent decree which approves the CVX $53 billion acquisition of HES.  However, as a condition of the approval, the HES CEO is barred from taking a board seat on CVS.  Later, the NTSB issued an urgent safety recommendation on rudder control systems for some BA 737 airplanes after an investigation of a February incident involving a jammed rudder on a UAL 737 MAX 8.  At the same time, the SEC announced that DKNG has agreed to pay a $200k penalty to settle charges of selectively disclosing of material non-public information via social media. After the close, the TX Public Utility Commission unanimously approved an expansion of its ERCOT electric grid to improve access for COP, XOM, FANG, CVX, and DVN.  (This is of note because the TX electric grid is already stretched and the pre-approval report said it expects the oil and gas drillers could account for almost one-third of the state’s summer electric usage by 2038.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, BAC analysts released a report claiming that certain sectors outperform in a steepening yield curve environment such as should be created by a Fed rate-cutting cycle.  BAC said, Healthcare and rising momentum lead sector performance during a Bull Market steepening.  On the other side, BAC said Basic Resources and High Risk stocks tend to outperform during Bear Market yield curve steepening.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported OPEC+ plans to go ahead with oil production increases (180k barrels per day) in December. Saudi Arabia was committed to the increase and Russia strongly opposed. In addition, OPEC+ will drop its unofficial $100/barrel price target in order to win back market share (from the US, Canada, China and Brazil).  Meanwhile, silver closed at its highest level since 2012 and gold hit a record level on Thursday.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red with seven of the 12 regional exchanges under break-even.  Even so, the big moves were all on the plus side as Shenzhen (+6.71%) was WAY OUT FRONT followed by Hong Kong (+3.55%), Shanghai (+2.88%), and Japan (+2.32%).  In Europe, the picture is mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (+0.84%), and FTSE (+0.54%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of break-even.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.14% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down a bit to 3.789% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $67.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes the August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, and August Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are pushing back after a gap down to start the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the early session, but all three have also put in decisive white-body candles since that open to get back to even. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema) after Thursday’s gap and then black-body candle. However, the T2122 indicator is back up in the lower half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bulls still clearly have momentum and the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split with five in the red and five in green. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.56%) leads the losses and has twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (+0.83%) and that second dog is leading the gainers. Finally, remember it is Friday and the next to last trading day of the month. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to pay yourself…lock-in profits where you can.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, stocks opened up undecided.  SPY opened down 0.01%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. From that point, DIA immediately began to sell off, reaching the lows of the day at 1:40 p.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ rallied modestly after the open, reversing and beginning to selloff at 10:20 a.m. They both reached their lows between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m.  After that, all three major index ETFs traded sideways in a tight range along the lows.  This action gave us a large black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candle that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  At the same time, SPY printed a black-bodied, indecisive Spinning Top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a white-bodied Inverted Hammer type candle (not a Shooting Star due to a gap lower not up).  This happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.79%) far out in front leading the rest of the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+0.26%) held up much better than the other sectors and was the only green on the sector board.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.22%, DIA dropped 0.71%, and QQQ gained 0.09%.  VXX closed up 1.36% to 48.41 and T2122 plummeted down to the center of its mid-range at 59.68.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields jumped to close at 3.791% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.40% to close at $69.84 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included August Building Permits which came in up but slightly lighter than expected at 1.470 million (compared to forecast of 1.475 million and the July reading of 1.406 million). Meanwhile, August New Home Sales were down but better than predicted at 716k (versus a forecast of 699k and the July value of 751k).  This was a 4.7% decline on a month-on-month basis. Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger decline than expected at -4.471 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a 1.300-million-barrel draw and prior week reading of 1.630 million barrels. 

In Fed news, Fed Governor Kugler said Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the half percent rate cut at last week’s FOMC meeting.  Kugler said, “The labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy.”  She continued, “I strongly supported last week’s decision and, if progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts.”

After the close, MU and WS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CNXC bear on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, FUL and JEF missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, the union that represents striking BA workers in the Pacific Northwest told Reuters that the workers are not interested in the latest offer from the company.  (BA called that offer their “best and final” offer.)  At the same time, unions for LUV workers announced company plans to reduce service to and from Atlanta in 2025 as part of cost cutting plans.  This will lead to the loss of an unspecified number of jobs.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) flatly rejected union calls for more talks as the unions threaten strikes following a bitter first round of negotiations over potential German plant closures.  At the same time, META unveiled new Augmented Reality glasses and AI updates.  Later, STLA and French nuclear fuel firm Orano announced they are dropping a previously planned joint venture to recycle electric car batteries. Meanwhile, MRK announced bad results from a late-stage trial for its experimental colorectal cancer drug. (441 trial participants who took the drug did not show significant improvement in survival compared to existing treatments.) 

Later, PYPL announced it will allow merchants to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrency from their business accounts.  After the close, PFE withdrew its sickle cell disease treatment Oxbryta from all markets worldwide and discontinued all studies and programs related to the treatment.  (This decision was “based on the totality of clinical data, which indicates the benefits of the drug o not outweigh the risks” according to a PFE statement.)  PFE reported $92 million in revenue from Oxbryta in Q2.  At the same time, SPR announced it will begin employee furloughs in three weeks unless the BA strike in the Pacific Northwest ends before that time.  Later, BX confirmed previous rumors that it has invested $13.3 billion in an AI data center in the Northeast England.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that SDXOF (France’s Sodexo) is strongly considering a big to takeover rival ARMK.  (ARMK share spiked in after-hours trading.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, BAC (Merrill lynch subsidiary) agreed to pay $3.8 million to settle two SEC charges related to investment limits and fees. At the same time, Australia’s securities regulator fined fund giant Vanguard $9 million for misleading claims about its ethical and green investment funds.  Later, the NHTSA announced that STLA will recall 15,000 Fiat vehicles in the US due to software errors that may cause airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, GOOGL filed a complaint with the European Commission against what it alleges are anti-competitive practiced by MSFT to lock their customers into the MSFT Azure cloud computing platform.  Later, X announced that an arbitration board has ruled in favor of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion buyout of the company.  However, the United Steelworkers which represents the vast majority of X employees said it disagreed with the decision and this did not change its opposition to the deal. 

Meanwhile, Transportation Sec. Buttigieg and Acting Labor Sec. Su wrote a letter to the CEOs of CSX, CNR, and CP urging the companies to guarantee paid sick leave for all workers. (The letter said 10k of their workers do not have paid sick leave.  A rail trade group responded by saying that 60% of rail workers do have paid sick leave…as if that was something to exclaim.) Later, GOOGL, GS, BCSF, BNS, LEGH, and CELH agreed to pay a combined $3.8 million in penalties to the SEC to settle charges over late filings and disclosures.  At the same time, CSLLY received a $121 million contract from the HHS Dept. to increase the US stockpile of bird flu vaccine to 40 million doses.  After the close, AEO sued AMZN alleging the ecommerce giant infringed on its Aerie trademarks on clothing and accessories.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, US ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast extended their delivery hours for importers as companies rush to clear cargo through the ports ahead of a potential and looming strike on October 1.  (The strike could cover five of the top 10 busiest ports in the US.)  Elsewhere, a global banking trade group (Inst. Of Intl. Finance) reported Wednesday that global debt rose to a record $312 trillion at the end on Q2. This resulted in a global debt-to-GDP ratio of 327%.  Oddly, the “developed countries” ratio fell to its lowest level since 2018, driven by declines in household and non-financial corporate sector borrowing.  Later, a group of House GOP members, led by the Chair of the Select Committee on China, said Wednesday that the panel’s top priority is legislation to prevent US investment in China.  The group painted the issue as needing to stop US investors from funding our own country’s demise (by funding the enemy China).  Many Democrats are more than willing to go along with such initiatives as Populism and Nationalism has apparently completely replaced free trade and “the invisible hand of the market” philosophies.

In government funding news, after the close, the House passed a stop-gap spending continuing resolution to fund government operations through December 20.  The move comes after MAGA extremists lost their bid to tie a voter suppression amendment to the bill.  The bill passed 341-82 with all “no votes” being cast by Republicans.  (As a side note, this leaves House Speaker Johnson in the same predicament as his ousted predecessor, having had to go against the MAGA wing of his party in order to actually govern.  There is no word on whether a move will be made to oust Johnson, but it is doubtful prior to the election since Republicans don’t want to refresh the view of their party as wholly dysfunctional, having passed no legislation of any meaning and caused potential shutdowns seven different times since January 2023.  Number eight comes on December 20.)  Senate Majority Leader Schumer had prepared for the last-minute wrangling by putting a placeholder on the Senate schedule.  So, the Senate voted on the bill from the House and passed it 78-18.  The bill now goes to the President, where it will be signed.

Overnight, global markets have been given a leg up by MU’s beat and forecast raise last night. MU raised Q3 guidance a half billion higher than estimates to $8.7 billion for the quarter. As a result, all tech-related and chip names in particular soared higher. Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Shenzhen (+4.44%), Hong Kong (+4.16%), and Shanghai (+3.61%) led broad and strong gains across the region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 12 of the 14 bourses are well into the green.  The CAC (+1.50%), DAX (+1.14%), and lagging FTSE (+0.16%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.), Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.76% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.77% and Oil (WTI) has dropped another 2.73% to $67.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, and Q2 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (9:15 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (9:20 a.m.), Fed member Williams (9:25 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (10:30 a.m.), Treasury Sec. Yellen (11:15 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (1 p.m.), and Fed member Kashkari (1 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ACN, KMX, JBL, and SNX.  Then, after the close, BB, COST, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACN and JBL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, KMX beat on revenue while missing by a penny on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are charging this morning on that MU forecast optimism. All three major index ETFs gapped up significantly to start the premarket. However, SPY and DIA have printed tiny Doji candles since while QQQ has followed-through with a decent-size white-body candle that is now within 2% of its all-time highs. It is worth noting that SPY sits at a new all-time high by three-quarters of a percent in the early session. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, QQQ is extended far above its T-line (8ema) after the premarket gap up. However, the other two major index ETFs are not yet too far extended above their T-lines. However, the T2122 indicator is back down in the middle of its mid-range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bulls clearly have momentum early and the Bears have much more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green with INTC (+2.89%), AMD (+2.54%), and NVDA (+2.27%) leading the gains. As usual, However, that biggest dog, NVDA, is leading the dollar-volume traded this morning by a factor of three compared to any other ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were mostly undecided and treading water again Tuesday. To the extent there was any directionality, it was slightly bullish.  SPY opened 0.15% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.30%.  From there, all three major index ETFs sold off the first hour, rallied the second hour, and then ground sideways the rest of the day popping back up to the highs the last five minutes of the day.  All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema).  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  At the same time, SPY printed a white-bodied Hanging Man.  Finally, QQQ printed a white-bodied candle somewhere in between a Hanging Man and a Spinning Top, that sits right at a resistance level from the August highs. This happened on below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Basic Materials (+1.97%) well out in front leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Financial Services (-0.39%) and Utilities (-0.37%) lagged well behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.29%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.48%.  VXX was flat, ending up to 47.76 and T2122 climbed a bit into the middle of its over-bought range to close at 90.96.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell a bit to close at 3.732% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.66% to close at $71.54 per barrel on supply fears led by Israeli escalation of attacks on Lebanon.  So, markets were slightly bullish on what was largely a non-committal, undecided day with traders making few bets as markets drifted sideways much of the day.  SPY and DIA both closed at new all-time high closes.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence, which came in lower at 98.7 (compared to a forecast of 103.9 and well down from August’s 105.6 reading).  Later, after the close, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks had a much larger drawdown than expected at -4.339 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 1.100-million-barrel drawdown and far different than the previous week’s 1.960-million-barrel inventory build). 

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman (probably the most hawkish permanent member of the FOMC board) explained her lone dissent to the FOMC’s half percent rate cut last week.  She told a KY Banker’s Assn. that inflation gauges “remain uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target. Therefore, she opposed a half-percent cut and instead supported a quarter percent reduction.  Bowman said, “The U.S. economy remains strong and core inflation remains uncomfortably above our 2% target.” She continued, “I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate while the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation remains a concern.”  Bowman explained, “I continue to see greater risks to price stability, especially while the labor market continues to be near estimates of full employment (4.2%).”  She also said that she feared a rate cut would “unleash a considerable amount of pent-up demand and cash on the sidelines” (thus, possibly reigniting inflation).

After the close, KBH reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico scaled back or shut down operations ahead of a storm predicted to become a hurricane Wednesday.  SHEL, CVX, and BP were the headline names that evacuated rigs in the gulf.  At the same time, as previously revealed, SMAR announced it will be acquired by BX and Vista Equity Partners in a $8.4 billion all-cash deal ($56.50/share). Later, BIIB released results promising from a Phase 3 study of its lupus treatment.  At the same time, the Chairman of Nippon Steel publicly asked the United Steelworkers union to “come to the table” to find a resolution allowing Nippon Steel to acquire X.  Later, about 2,000 hotel workers walked off the job in a strike at the largest HLT hotel in the world in HI. (Overall, 4,000 hotel workers struck HLT in Honolulu, Sandiego, and San Francisco.)  At the same time, KO announced that it is pulling its “Spiced Coke” flavor and said it was discontinuing the flavor.  This comes less than six months after KO announced the new “permanent flavor” was intended to target younger drinkers.

Elsewhere, Elliott Management announced it would request a special meeting of the board of LUV as soon as next week as the activist investor seeks to push out the CEO.  Later, AMCI Testing announced that TSLA Full Self-Driving software is still “suspect” and requires improvement to ensure robotaxi safety.  (The testing company said that a 1,000-mile evaluation found that the software required human intervention 75 times and the time between required human interventions decreased as the test went on.)  At the same time, the Teamsters Unions announced it had reached a four-year deal with BWA, covering 700 workers.  (This ends a two-week strike at BWA.)  Later, MSFT announced it will spend $1.3 billion in Mexico over the next three years to build out cloud computing infrastructure.  After the close, Reuters reported that negotiations remain at a standstill between MPC and the Teamsters Union as the strike at MPC refineries enters its third week.  At the same time, regulatory filings showed that BRKB sold another $863 million of BAC stock between September 20 and September 24.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday the Dept. of Justice sued V for allegedly conducting an illegal monopoly over debit cards.  The suit accuses V of using “exclusionary agreements” with partners to prevent and smother potential rivals in that space. Later, BVNRY received a $63 million order from the US government to produce bulk and freeze-dried smallpox and Mpox vaccines.  At the same time, the UK anti-trust watchdog agency said that “concerns remain” over GOOGL ad-privacy plans.  (This is GOOGL’s plans to retain third-party cookies in the Chrome browser for better targeting ads.)  Later, the FTC announced that INVH agreed to pay a $48 million fine for deceiving renters about their lease costs. 

Meanwhile, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $740 million of Stinger missiles (made by RTX) to Egypt.  At the same time, a Brazilian state announced they had signed a $180 million deal with AMZN and five other companies, selling the companies carbon credits and the money to purportedly be used for conservation of the Amazon region.  After the close, META announced it will not immediately join the EU’s AI Pact ahead of bloc’s new AI law comes into effect.  At the same time, a federal judge ruled a NY City law requiring DASH, GRUB, and UBER to share the end customer data with restaurants.  The judge ruled the law violated the First Amendment by regulating commercial speech.

In geopolitical news, on Tuesday, Israel continued its new campaign of attacks on Lebanon (Hezbollah).  After 1,300+ Israeli attacks Monday killed more than 500 and wounded thousands, on Tuesday they launched several dozen additional attacks, killing at least dozens more.  In response, Hezbollah fired 300 rockets into Israel.  As the rest of the world called for de-escalation and the stop of illegal bombings, Israeli PM Netanyahu said the attacks will not end.  He urged the Lebanese people to change governments and throw out Hezbollah “before that group leads them into the abyss” (i.e. gets them bombed to rubble by Israel).  Meanwhile, the IDF spokesman called on the people of Southern Lebanon to move away from buildings and gatherings “for their own safety.”  Oil prices initially spiked on Monday, but retreated as the attacks cooled Monday night.  However, another spike took place Tuesday as the attacks resumed.

In overnight news, Asia was buoyed Wednesday by more stimulus from Beijing.  The People’s Bank of China (central bank) lowered the rate charged on one-year loans by more than it has ever been lowered before.  This comes on top of the broad package of stimulus announced Tuesday.  As a result, the Chinese yuan rose to more the seven per US dollar for the first time in 16 months. Elsewhere, SAP stock took a hit on news that the US is investigating the German software giant for over-charging US agencies over the course of a decade.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed with six exchanges in the red and six in the green.  Taiwan (+1.47%), Shenzhen (+1.21%), and Shanghai (+1.16%) led the gainers while South Korea (-1.34%) and Singapore (-1.09%) were by far the biggest losers.  In Europe, markets are mostly green at midday with four of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (-0.33%), DAX (-0.43%), and FTSE (+0.27%) lead the region on volume as usual in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.15% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.76% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.63% to $71.10 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes August Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), August New Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CTAS.  Then, after the close, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, August Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell, Fed member Williams, Fed Vice Chair Barr, Treasury Sec. Yellen, Fed Vice Chair Barr, and Fed member Kashkari. Finally, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from CAN, KMX, JBL, SNX, BB, COST, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In last minute news mortgage news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reports a surge in demand for loans last week.  This was led by a 20% increase in refinance loan applications on the week (week-on-week).  (This was a massive 175% increase over the same week one year earlier.)  Meanwhile, the loan applications for the purchase of a new home rose 1% week-on-week, but were also 2% higher than the same week of 2023.  The national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.13% down from 6.15% the week prior., APO (Apollo Global Mgmt.) offered to make a $5 billion “equity-like” investment into INTC. This is both a vote of confidence in INTC, but depending on the board mindset may also offer an alternative to the friendly take-over offer from QCOM. Either way, INTC shares spiked in premarket on the news.

With that background, it looks like the SPY is flat and undecided in the premarket. At the same time, QQQ gapped down a bit but is also undecided at that point. Meanwhile, DIA gapped down the most in the early session, but also has a strong white-bodied candle so far that had climbed back up to positive territory early. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines. However, the T2122 indicator has climbed back into the top half of its overbought range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red with AAPL (-0.99%) well out in front leading the losses. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (+0.26%) is among the leader among the gainers and has traded 3x the dollar-volume of any other ticker so far today (normal for NVDA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a day where most of the move came at the open.  SPY gapped down by 0.53%, DIA gapped down 0.46%, and QQQ opened 0.17%. From there, all three of the major index ETFs meandered sideways with QQQ having the most volatility, SPY the least, and DIA had a slight bullish trend. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the only other retest was SPY retesting support from above and passing.  This all gave us indecisive candles across all three with long-legged Doji candles in SPY and QQQ while DIA printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red, with Industrials (-0.83%) and Healthcare (-0.78%) in front of the others leading the rest of the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+1.68%) were the only sectors in green and held up much, much better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.52%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.19%.  VXX fell another 0.61% to close at 47.43 and T2122 fell just outside of its over-bought range to the top of its mid-range at 78.17. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.745% while Oil (WTI) fell just 0.25% to close at $71.77 per barrel.  So, Friday was basically modest gap lower and then a dead market as markets seemed to want to get past triple-witching and the weekend. 

There was no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In Fed news, Fed Governor Waller discussed the FOMC’s half percent rate cut with CNBC.  Waller said that rate cut was the right decision because the economy is strong and inflation is coming down…and the Fed wants to keep it that way.  Waller said that recent data pushed him in the direction of a larger rate cut, while noting “estimates” suggest that core PCE is running below target and that was what pushed him over the edge toward supporting the larger rate cut.  As always, Waller said that future rate decisions will be data dependent and that the FOMC could pause if inflation progress stalls, but he’s also open to another larger cut if the jobs market makes it appropriate.  Finally, Waller said he does not believe the Fed is “behind the curve” (or ahead) and he thinks that inflation is “on the right path.”  Later, Fed Governor Bowman released a statement that her dissenting vote to the FOMC’s half percent rate cut, instead voting for a quarter-point cut, to avoid “a premature declaration of victory over inflation.” She echoed Chair Powell (and Governor Waller) in saying that the economy and job market remain strong, but that “core personal expenditure prices are still rising faster than 2.5% from 12 months earlier.”  Bowman continued, “We have not yet achieved our inflation goal. (So,) I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2% target. This approach would also avoid unnecessarily stoking demand.”  (Her statement did not specifically say so, but apparently, she believes a measured pace is best defined as quarter point rate moves.)

In stock news, on Friday, CEG announced plans to restart the 3-Mile Island nuclear power plant, saying that it had contracted to sell the power to MSFT for use in AI data centers. CEG said it plans to invest $1.6 billion to upgrade and restart the plant. CEG stock gapped up 13% and closed up 22.31% on the news. (However, as of day end, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it had not received an application from CEG, which would need to be approved before restarting the plant.)  At the same time, NVO announced disappointing results from a phase 2a trial of its experimental oral anti-obesity drug monlunabant. The trial found patients lost just 6.5% of their body weight over 16 weeks using the once-daily pill.  (NVO fell nearly 5% on the news.)  Later, CAH announced it has agreed to buy private cancer center operator Integrated Oncology Network for $1.12 billion in cash. The move gives CAH access to 100 cancer treatment centers in 10 states for distribution of its drugs. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported APOS has been given $5 billion by BNPQY to expand its private credit investments.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that QCOM made a buyout offer for INTC earlier in the week.  This news broke Friday afternoon, and INTC popped 7% on the news, but closed up 3.31%.  (No details on the offer or response were given. However, the Journal said it had three sources, including people on both sides of the offer.) It’s worth noting that even if INTC accepted the offer, there would be huge hurdles in getting regulatory approval…and that approval would need to come from several governments. After the close, BA’s new CEO Ortberg made his first major move by firing the head of the company’s Space and Defense unit, effective immediately. The company name the unit’s COO to assume the duties until a replacement can be found.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a German court ruled against AMZN and in favor of NOK in the phone company’s patent infringement suit. (The case is over video technologies in streaming devices that AMZN is selling without a NOK license.)  At the same time, AAL asked the US Dept. of Transportation to let it to delay resuming two daily flights to China from the US.  AAL cited lags in travel demand for China that have not recovered from pre-pandemic levels (COVID being the reason the flights were discontinued originally).  (DAL and UAL had both sought the same permission earlier.)  Later, the US Dept. of Energy announced plans to award $3 billion across 25 projects in 14 states in support of battery manufacturing.  ALB, HON, and LUNMF are among the companies receiving these grants.  At the same time, the NHTSA said that F will recall 144k vehicles over rearview camera freezing problems.  Later, the FDA approved AZN’s self-administered nasal spray flu vaccine.  (This is the first of its kind drug approved.) 

Elsewhere, the FDA also approved ZVRA’s drug for a rare and fatal genetic disorder.  (The FDA had previously declined to approve the ZVRA drug and ordered an extended review.)  Later, the SEC ruled that FOX can avoid a vote by shareholders asking it to consider labeling news and opinion shows to distinguish them for viewers as activist investors.  The SEC agreed with FOX that the matter is not a shareholder matter, but rather an “ordinary business decision.”  At the same time, and Italian judge ordered a $84 million seizure of assets and money from the Chairman of STLA related to alleged tax fraud.  Later, the FTC sued UNH, CI, and CVS, alleging that their pharmacy benefits manager units steered patients away from lower-cost insulin to higher-cost products by excluding the lower-cost products from their lists of covered drugs distributed to patients.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM is recalling 450k pickups and SUVs in the US over an inoperative warning light for low brake fluid.

Meanwhile, the conservative US 5^th District Court of Appeals revived a suit brought by drug companies and their trade groups challenging the right of the government to negotiate drug prices.  The court did not address the merits of the case but instead found the TX judge was wrong to dismiss the case in February, saying he did not have jurisdiction to hear the case, even though it was brought in his court. At the same time, SATS received approval from the FCC to buildout the company’s 5G network for Boost Mobile.  (SATS says it plans to cover 80% of the US by the end of 2024.)  Later, the JNJ subsidiary used for the “Texas Two-Step” attempt to avoid the liability of talc lawsuits filed for bankruptcy again (a third time) to advance JNJ’s $10 billion settlement plan that would end tens of thousands of lawsuits.  (JNJ says that 83% of lawsuit claimants have accepted the settlement offer.  JNJ is hoping that the bankruptcy judge will order the settlement to apply to all plaintiffs, instead of just the 83%.)  After the close, the SEC approved options trading on BLK’s Bitcoin spot-price ETF.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the Biden Administration announced it is preparing a new $375 million military aid package for Ukraine.  This package will include HIMARS missiles (made by LMT), as well as 155mm and 105mm artillery shells (made by BAESF).  Elsewhere, in government shutdown news, on Sunday afternoon Speaker of the House Johnson decided to remove the MAGA voter suppression amendment from the government funding continuing resolution.  The revised bill only funds government operations until December 20 (9 weeks) as the GOP hopes to get past this, its SEVENTH shutdown fiasco since taking power in January 2023 (with an eighth cliff-edge then scheduled the week before Christmas).  The Speaker indicated in a letter to his caucus that he would bring a vote on the measure this week, with details still unknown.

In geopolitical news, Israel ramped up regional tensions with more bombing attacks Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  Initially, Lebanon’s Hezbollah group initially responded with rhetoric, but as Israeli attacks continued the group conducted missile attacks further into Israel than has been seen for a long time, with rockets landing near Haifa (on the Mediterranean coast). Meanwhile in Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed three armament depots in the Moscow region on Saturday and Sunday.  These attacks blew up 60,000 tons of armaments ranging from artillery shells, to rockets, to bombs, to cruise missiles. This included shipments from North Korea. (The value of the destroyed munitions is very likely in the range of many billions of dollars.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five red exchanges and seven green ones.  Japan (+1.53%) led the gains while Australia (-0.69%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as there are six red bourses and eight green ones at midday.  The CAC (-0.321%), DAX (+0.48%), and FTSE (-0.20%) lead the region on volume as always.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start modestly on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up t o3.751% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $71.32 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.). However, we also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.) and Kashkari (1 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, AIR reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, August Building Permits, August New Home Sales, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, August Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell, Fed member Williams, Fed Vice Chair Barr, Treasury Sec. Yellen, Fed Vice Chair Barr, and Fed member Kashkari. Finally, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AZO, THO, KGH, and WOR.  Then Wednesday, CTAS, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS report. On Thursday, we hear from CAN, KMX, JBL, SNX, BB, COST, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In last minute news, APO (Apollo Global Mgmt.) offered to make a $5 billion “equity-like” investment into INTC. This is both a vote of confidence in INTC, but depending on the board mindset may also offer an alternative to the friendly take-over offer from QCOM. Either way, INTC shares spiked in premarket on the news.

With that background, it looks like the market is indecisive and just on the plus side of break-even in the early session. All three major index ETFs have printed more wick than body, with QQQ having the only appreciable body among those candles. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines. In addition, the T2122 indicator has dropped out of its overbought range, but sits in the top of its mid-range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green with INTC (+4.01%) way, way out in front leading gains. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (-0.09%) is among the laggards.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Thursday.  SPY gapped up 1.73%, DIA gapped up 1.39%, and QQQ gapped up a whopping 2.39%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs saw volatility in the first hour, followed by a rally that lasted until about 2 p.m., when a modest selloff took over and lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, indecisive, Doji-type candles.  SPY was a true Doji that printed new all-time high and new all-time high close.  DIA gave us a black Spinning Top that also printed new all-time high and all-time high closes.  Meanwhile, QQQ gave a white Spinning Top that broke its downtrend line (going back to the all-time high in July) and retested, but did not close above, a resistance line running back through the August 22 high.  This all happened on average volume across all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Technology (+2.73%) out in front of the others leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Utilities (-0.21%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.13%) were the only sectors in red.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.71%, DIA gained 1.25%, and QQQ gained 2.53%.  VXX fell 4.33% to close at 47.72 and T2122 climbed back into the top half of its over-bought range at 94.74.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.719% while Oil (WTI) popped 1.61% to close at $72.05 per barrel on supply fears caused by Israeli bombing in Lebanon and the Hezbollah Leader saying Israel “crossed red lines” and there would be a reckoning.  So, Thursday was basically a re-think of the Fed policy change resulting in a gap higher.  After that gap, it was just volatility the rest of the day. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in lower than expected at 219k (compared to the 230k forecast and prior week’s 231k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down at 1,829k (versus a forecast of 1,850k and a prior week value of 1,843k). At the same time, the Q2 Current Account was lower at -$266.8 billion (compared to a forecast of -$259.0 billion and a Q1 reading of -$241.0 billion).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was much better at 1.7 (versus a forecast of -0.8 and much better than the August -7.0 value).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was much higher at 10.7 (compared to August’s -5.7 reading).  Later, August Existing Home Sales were lower than predicted at 3.86 million (versus a forecast of 3.92 million and July’s 3.96 million number).  At the same time, the August US Leading Economic Index was better than anticipated at -0.2% (compared to a forecast of -0.3% and much better than July’s -0.6% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $6 billion decrease at $7.109 trillion (versus the prior week’s $7.115 trillion balance).

After the close, LEN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FDX and MLKN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (FDX missed on earnings by more than 25%.)

In stock news, on Thursday, INTC said it has no plans to divest its majority stake in MBLY.  At the same time, BABA accelerated its efforts to compete in the AI market by releasing 100 open-source large language models and text-to-video AI technology.  (BABA’s competitors like BIDU are primarily pursuing a closed-source approach.) Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that DIS is dumping the CRM-owned worker collaboration tool Slack after the recent hack that exposed more than a terabyte of DIS data.  At the same time, GM’s Cruise unit announced it will begin testing up to five autonomous vehicles in the San Francisco Bay area later this fall.  Later, BRKB’s railroad (BNSF) announce it had reached a tentative deal with the SMART union on a 5-year labor contract.  At the same time, KO announced plans to invest $1 billion in Nigeria operations over the next five years.  Later, TLSA rival NIO announced price cuts on its first car, now starting at $21,210 in China.

Elsewhere, the CWA union announced NYT workers had approved a strike, with 95% voting in favor of a strike.  At the same time, NKE announced its CEO (Donahoe) will step down on October 14 and will be replaced by former NKE senior executive Elliott Hill, who had left after 32 years at NKE.  (CNBC reported Donahoe was being forced out as the board seeks to restructure the company.)  Later, MA announced that they forecast holiday spending will grow by 3% again this year during a shorter-than-usual holiday window.  Meanwhile, GOOGL announced that ads will now be able to run, even when a YouTube video has been paused.  This annoyance may well just be intended to increase sales of YouTube Premium subscription accounts ($13.99/month) which avoids ads altogether. Later, after the close, the CEO of MASI was ousted after activist investor Politan won two board seats during a shareholder proxy vote.  Finally, Bloomberg reported the EU has warned AAPL that it must open up its extremely-guarded iPhone and iPad operating systems to rival technologies OR it will face significant (unspecified) fines.  The report says AAPL was given six months to do this before penalties will begin.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the SEC announced that MQBKY (investment advisor) had agreed to pay $79.8 million to settle charges of overvaluing collateralized mortgage obligations held in its advisory accounts between 2017 and 2021.  At the same time, the Bureau of Land Mgmt. published a key environmental report, which was the last step to approval of IONR’s Rhyolite Ridge lithium mine in NV.  (The mine will produce enough lithium for 370k electric vehicles per year.  F and TM have both agreed to buy lithium from that mine.)  Later, Reuters reported that a criminal investigation is underway at the ET natural gas liquids plant that exploded and has been burning in La Porte TX since Monday. (A body was found in the car that hit the pipeline.)  At the same time, the FDA approved ELAN’s skin disease treatment for dogs.  After the close, the Anti-Defamation League joined a lawsuit alleging INTC has a hostile workplace and has wrongfully discriminated and terminated a former Israeli employee, after that employee accused two executives of openly posting anti-Semitic propaganda tied to the Israeli-Hamas war.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that pro-Ukraine congressional leaders and the Biden administration are very near an agreement to extend expiration of $6 billion in military aid for Ukraine.  The report indicated that the deal would extend the period during which the President us able to drawdown US military supplies and use the $6 billion to replenish.  If not extended, the $6 billion expires at the end of the month.  Elsewhere, not waiting on the dysfunctional GOP House, the Senate Majority Leader moved a placeholder stop-gap bill through procedural hurdles.  This will allow the Senate to vote on a government funding continuing resolution almost immediately, if the House can get one passed and send it to the Senate.  Meanwhile, Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage rate dropped to 6.09% (down from 6.20% a week prior). 

In Fed rate forecasting, the day following the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut, the Fed Funds Futures market closed while expecting a quarter-point cut in early November and then a half point cut in mid-December.  Specifically, 60.9% of trades expect a quarter-point cut in September, with the other 39.1% predicting a half percent cut at that meeting.  For December, 29.0% forecast a cut to 4.25%-4.50% (a total of a half of a percent lower than the current rate) while 50.5% expect 4.00%-4.25% (three-quarters of a percent lower than current), and 20.5% of trades predict a cut to 3.75%-4.00% (a full percent lower than current, or in other words, expect two cuts of half a percent during the last two meetings of the year).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the green side with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red in that region.  (Note that the Bank of Japan held rates steady.) However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday after the Bank of England and Norway’s central bank both held rates steady in contrast to the Fed’s big cut Wednesday.  The CAC (-0.72%), DAX (-0.86%), and FTSE (-0.49%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but down start to Friday.  The DIA implies a +0.03% open, the SPY is implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 3.732% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.43% to $71.64 per barrel in early trading.

The only major economic news scheduled for Friday is Fed member Harker speaking at 2 p.m.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In overnight news, MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) gave a profit warning and lowered its guidance, citing slow sales in China.  The CEO of Mercedes promised a sales push in China, presumably meaning a lowering of prices as well as introducing new “products” to the Chinese market.  Also, after their bad report, FDX is down more than 12% in premarket trading.  Early Friday, CEG announced it will restart the Three-mile Island nuclear power plant and have contracted to sell the power produced to MSFT.

With that background, it looks like the Bears have control early Friday. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly lower and have printed black-bodied candles since then in the premarket. However, all three remain well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines given the premarket action, but they were getting close as of Thursday’s close. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the top half of its overbought range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears definitely have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with the two remaining just barely holding onto green territory. NVDA (-0.87%) and INTC (-0.85%) lead the losses while NVDA and TSLA (-0.72%) lead the dollar-volume traded as usual. GOOGL (+0.16%) is holding up better than the other big dogs. Also, bear in mind that today is Friday, pay day, and also triple witching day. So, prepare your account for potential volatility in the afternoon as well as the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was about what we (or at least I) had expected.  SPY opened up 0.09%, DIA opened up 0.05%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%.  From there, all three major index ETFs immediately crossed back below the prior close before grinding sideways in a tight range for two hours.  Then we saw a modest selloff followed by a modest rally back to the same level waiting on the Fed. At 2 p.m. we had a 5-minute rip upward and volatility followed by a drift higher into Chair Powell’s presser at 2:30 p.m.  After Powell started, we sold off the rest of the day. This action gave us black-bodied, Inverted Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and DIA printed new all-time highs, while QQQ again retested and closed below its downtrend line running back to Mid-July.  None of the three retested or crossed below their T-line (8ema).  This all happened on slightly below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red, with Utilities (-0.60%) out in front of the others leading the market lower. On the other side, Healthcare (-0.03%), Financial Services (-0.05%), Communications Services (-0.09%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.09%) were all clustered as laggards. Meanwhile, SPY fell 0.30%, DIA lost 0.26%, and QQQ lost 0.43%.  VXX fell 0.83% to close at 49.88 and T2122 fell slightly again but remains in the middle of its over-bought range at 87.50. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields actually gained to close at 3.704% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.55% to close at $70.09 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was all about the Fed.  the Bulls get their new all-time highs in the large-cap indexes.  However, then traders took profits, afraid to hold too much long risk going into tomorrow’s Fed decision, statement, and press conference.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include August Building Permits, which were stronger than expected at 1.475 million (compared to the 1.410 million forecast and a 1.406 million July reading).  At the same time, August Housing Starts were strongly higher at 1.356 million (versus a 1.310 million forecast and 1.237 million July value).  This was a 9.6% month-on-month increase.  Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger than anticipated inventory drawdown at -1.630 million barrels (compared to a -0.200 million barrels forecast and the prior week’s +0.833-million-barrel inventory build). Then, at the close, July TIC Net Long-Term Transactions indicated a net inflow of $135.4 billion. 

However, the big news of the day came from the FOMC.   At 2 p.m. Fed announced a half-percent rate cut (down to the 4.75%-5.00% range) for Fed Funds.  At the same time the Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection was down to 4.4% (down from 5.1%).  For the 1^st-Year Out Q3 Interest Rate Projection (2025) the average estimate is now 3.4% (down from the prior 4.1%).  Meanwhile, the 2^nd-Year (2026) Q3 Interest Rate Projection is now 2.9% (down from 3.1%). At the same time, the 3^rd-Year (2027) Q3 Interest Rate Projection remained steady at 2.9% (from the previous 2.9% forecast). The Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection was also 2.9% (which was up a tick from the previous average forecast of 2.8%). 

In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he does not see the risk of economic downturn as heightened.  He said, “I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated.”  He continued, “You see growth at a solid rate. You see inflation coming down. You see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels. So, I don’t really see that now.”  Powell said that there was “broad support” for Wednesday’s half-point cut. However, Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) dissented, instead calling for a quarter-point cut.  Looking forward, at the moment, the Dot Plots indicate two (of 19) board members feel there should be no more cuts in 2024.  At the same time, seven of the 19 think one additional quarter point cut will be appropriate.  However, the median view is that two more quarter-point cuts will be needed in 2024.  On the other end, one of the 19 feels more than half a percent of additional cut in 2024 will be appropriate.

After the close, SCS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Wednesday, GM reached a tentative deal with Unifor (the Canadian version of the UAW union) over its Ontario, Canada plant.  At the same time, a day after the Dept. of Justice approved the deal, ALK completed the $1.9 billion acquisition of HA.  Later, BA began furloughing thousands of workers via a one week off every four weeks scheme.  BA announced this will last for the duration of the strike by 33k of its workers in the Pacific Northwest.  At the same time, the UAW announced it is considering multiple US strikes against STLA for breaking the contract promises it made a year ago.  (The six-week strike a year ago cost the company $834 million.) Later, ROG announce it will buy a controlling stake in the Toronto Raptor’s NBA team and NHL’s Toronto Maple Leafs from BCE for $3.46 billion. 

Elsewhere, the UAW said that they have set a September 26 strike deadline for the F River Rouge complex near Dearborn MI.  500 of the complex’s 6,000 workers would participate if a strike takes place.  Later, AMZN announced it is raising the pay of its fulfillment and transportation employees by at least $1.50 per hour (and giving them a free Amazon Prime membership) as the company fights unionization and internal pressure for better pay and conditions. At the same time, GM announced it is offering adapters to its electric vehicle owners that would allow them to use the TSLA network of chargers. Finally, TUP did file for bankruptcy Wednesday as was rumored earlier in the week.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, GSK announced it has agreed to settle two lawsuits in CA that had claimed its discontinued Zantac heartburn drug caused cancer.  (No financial details were released.)  Later, the CEO of GME (Cohen) agreed to pay a $1 million penalty to the FTC for failing to disclose that he purchased $100 million of voting shares in WFC in 2018.  (He did so not as an investment, but as a way to influence WFC operations and in pursuit of a board seat.)  At the same time, GOOGL won a legal challenge against a $1.7 billion fine from EU antitrust regulators.  The court agreed with the regulator, but threw out the fine.  The antitrust commission can appeal. 

Meanwhile, a separate ruling announced at the same time, went against QCOM as it got the court to trim the fine from $269.07 million to $265.40 million.  Later, GOOGL asked a UK tribunal to throw out a $9.3 billion lawsuit alleging the company abused its dominance in the online search market.  Back in the US, OCFC agreed to pay a $15.1 million settlement for “redlining” via loan discrimination against Black, Hispanic, and Asian loan applicants between 2018 and 2022.  At the same time, a second “Zantac trial,” this one against private German firm Boehringer Ingelheim rather than partners GSK, PFE, or SNY ended in a hung jury.  Later, FHN agreed to pay $325k to settle SEC charges in relation to the bank’s recommendations of certain products.

In government funding news, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson brought a six-month government funding extension (continuing resolution) including a completely unrelated MAGA voting restriction rider to a vote.  (As instructed and demanded by the GOP’s disgraced Presidential candidate.)  It failed by a vote of 202-220, as 14 GOP members voted against the ridiculous electioneering stunt.  (The main point of the amendment is requiring people to prove their citizenship before voting. This is stupid since it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote and there are only a miniscule number of such cases ever found. This plan would also not even take effect this election cycle as the GOP imply and would like the public to believe. So, it’s an expensive, unfunded, and difficult to implement solution to a non-problem that would not be implemented when the GOP wrongly claims it is needed. In other words, the GOP is happy to risk the economic impact and disruption of government shutdown for yet another attempt to whip up fear and “other” the groups the GOP sees as “they.”)  Even more silly is the fact that the whole bill would be dead on arrival in the Senate. Unfortunately, Johnson and other GOP Congressmen then told reporters that the Republicans have no “Plan B” for government funding.  So, this does increase the probability of a government shutdown on October 1. 

In miscellaneous news, the SEC unanimously (5-0) voted to approve a rule change to allow exchanges to price stocks in half penny increments.  There is no word on when such a change might be implemented.  However, NDAQ immediately said it would study the matter, but that it would hurt stock markets in the long run (for unspecified reasons).  Elsewhere, the US has sued the owner and operator of the Singapore-flagged ship that hit the Baltimore bridge earlier this year, killing six and causing massive damage. The Dept. of Justice is seeking more than $100 million (just for costs incurred in the recovery, expect other suits to cover rebuilding and economic damages) and are alleging the company cut corners on maintenance to save costs, causing the crash.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Japan (+2.13%), Hong Kong (+2.00%), and Taiwan (+1.68%) led the region higher on the day.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the minor exception of Portugal (-0.31%) we see the same green picture at midday.  The CAC (+2.01%), DAX (+1.52%), and FTSE (+1.20%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +1.13% open, the SPY is implying a +1.62% open, and the QQQ implies a +2.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.713% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.75% to $71.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Existing Home Sales and August US Leading Economic Index (both at 10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is CBRL, DRI, and FDS.  Then, after the close, FDX, LEN, and MLKN report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks. In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, FDS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DRI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (CBRL is scheduled to report at 8 a.m.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are running this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start to premarket and have printed larger, white-body candles since then in the early session. SPY and DIA are sitting at new all-time highs again in the premarket. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard gapping well over its downtrend line going back to July. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines, but they are starting to get close in the early session today. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is still in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are strongly green so far this morning. AMD (+334%), NVDA (+3.15%), and TSLA (+3.00%) lead the gains while NVDA and TSLA lead the dollar-volume traded as usual. NFLX (+1.52%) is the “laggard” among those 10 bellwethers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw the Bulls go get their new all-time highs and then the Bears fade those gains.  SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ gapped up 0.63%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs chopped and then rallied to new highs by mid-morning.  Having achieved new all-time highs in SPY and DIA as well as breaking the downtrend line in the QQQ, then the Bears took over to drive the market to lows by early afternoon.  From there, all three chopped sideways between their lows and the previous close for the rest of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive, Spinning Top type candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY printed a new all-time high and had a gain for the day, but closed slightly below an all-time high close. The DIA did the same, except for closing seven cents below Monday’s close.  At the same time, QQQ gapped up and retested its downtrend line reaching back to the all-time high in July.  However, it closed back below that line.  This happened on less than average volume.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green again, with Energy (+1.07%) out in front of the others leading the market higher. On the other side, Communications Services (-0.99%) lagged behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY increased 0.04%, DIA lost 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.05%. VXX gained 2.15% to close at 50.30% and T2122 fell slightly again but remains in the top half of its over-bought range at 92.34. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields gained to close at 3.644% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.75% to close at $71.32 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw the Bulls get their new all-time highs in the large-cap indexes.  However, then traders took profits, afraid to hold too much long risk going into tomorrow’s Fed decision, statement, and press conference.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the August Month-to-Month Core Retail Sales, which were lower than expected at +0.1% (versus a forecast of +0.2% and the July reading of +0.4%).  On the headline number, August Month-to-Month Retail Sales were stronger than expected at +0.1% (compared to a forecast of -0.2% but down a full percent from July’s +1.1%).  Later, the August Month-on-Month Industrial Production was much stronger than anticipated at +0.8% (versus a +0.2% forecast and far better than July’s -0.9% value).  For the annual number August Year-on-Year Industrial Production was improved at +0.04% versus July’s -0.74% reading.  Meanwhile, July Month-on-Month Business Inventories grew by 0.4% (compared to a forecast and June value of +0.3%).  On the store front side, July Retail Inventories came in as anticipated at +0.5% (versus the +0.5% forecast and up from June’s +0.3% reading).  Then, after the close, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks showed an inventory build of 1.960 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 0.100 million barrels and the prior week’s 2.790-million-barrel drawdown).

In stock news, on Tuesday, BA and union negotiators resume contract talks as the strike against the company continues.  (Analysts report the strike is costing BA $100 million per day in lost sales revenue.)  At the same time, PM announced it would sell its Vectura Group (asthma inhaler maker) to Molex Asia for $198 million.  Later, WMT said it will raise the pay of 100k “Sam’s Club” workers in November.  The entry-level pay will go from $15/hr. to $16/hr.  (This was part of a labor deal struck three years ago.) At the same time, META announced effective immediately it has rolled out “teen accounts” for its Instagram platform, which automatically puts those under age 18 in an account with extra privacy features and parental controls.  Separately, META announced it had banned Russian state media RT for “foreign election interference.”  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that JPM is in talks with AAPL about taking over the tech giant’s credit card business from GS. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that ARKO is planning to sell its convenience store operations (1,500 stores) for around $2 billion.  (This is a reversal of company strategy and would leave it with a fuel distribution unit that serves 1,800 independent gas stations and 300 unmanned fueling sites.)  Later, Nippon Steel’s CEO (who travelled to Washington to lobby for the deal) told reporters he is now confident the deal to acquire X will be approved “on the merits.”  At the same time, MSFT and BLK announced they plan to launch a $100 billion fund to invest in AI infrastructure to build data centers and fund energy projects.  Later, after the close, BLNK announced it will lay off 14% of its global workforce (about 100 jobs) by the end of Q1 2025 in a cost-cutting program.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, CI-owned Express Scripts sued the FTC, alleging the agency’s recent report stating that prescription middlemen raise the cost of drugs is defamatory.  They asked the federal judge to force the rescinding of the report and the recusal of FTC Chair Lina Khan from any decisions involving CI.  The FTC said it plans to fight the lawsuit, saying it stands by its report and that three companies (CI, UNH, and CVS) control more than 80% of the pharmacy benefit manager market.  At the same time, testimony in the case of the FTC seeking to block KR’s $25 billion acquisition of ACI ended Tuesday.  However, a separate trial brought by the WA state Attorney General seeking to block the deal is just in its second day and a second separate trial brought by the Attorney General of CO will begin in Denver on September 30. (The two companies claim to have spent nearly $900 million trying to fight the three cases so far this year.) 

Meanwhile, the CFPB published legal guidance intended to stop banks from charging overdraft fees when consumers had not genuinely consented to the practice. (This is often done via “phantom opt-in” agreements buried in fintech (i.e. websites and ATMs). Later, T agreed to pay $13 million to resolve investigations into the data breach of the cloud vendor in January 2023.  (The breach exposed the information of 8.9 million T customers.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice said it would allow the ALK $1.9 billion acquisition of HA after the airlines agreed to maintain Hawaiian routes, protect frequent flyer rewards, etc.  Later, the Dept. of Energy announced it is accepting bids for 6 million barrels of oil for refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amidst low oil prices.  After the close, LUNR announced it had been awarded a $4.82 billion contract by NASA for navigation and communications services in the “near space” region.

In other news, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety announced the results of a month-long study of TSLA’s Autopilot and VLVLY (Volvo) Pilot Assist partial driving automation systems.  The study found that drivers were more likely to be distracted when using these driver assistance systems.  In fact, it found they were distracted 30% of the time because the driver had been trained that they could focus attention on other matters and only need to nudge the wheel every three seconds to avoid escalation.  (It is worth noting that the studied only covered 43 drivers.  So, automakers might argue that the sample size is too small.  However, 30% is a huge number and this may well end up meaning additional costs added to carmakers in the form of tools that guard against driver abuse of “assistance.”)

In look-ahead news, the Fedwatch tool has shown a growing number of traders are betting on a half percent rate cut today.  One months ago, only 25% or interest rate futures bets were for a 50 basis-point cut.  One week ago, that had risen to 34%.  On Monday that had risen to 62%.  Finally, Tuesday night the implied probabilities from interest rate futures trades showed a 63% chance of a half percent cut versus 37% for a quarter percent cut.  (There is absolutely no trades expecting a rate hike, no cut, or a bigger than half percent reduction.)

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Hong Kong (+1.37%) was by far the biggest winner while Taiwan (-0.78%) and New Zealand (-0.67%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.45%), DAX (-0.11%), and FTSE (-0.66%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.668% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.32% to $70.25 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include August Building Permits and August Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, and FOMC Economic Growth Projections (all at 2 p.m.), Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.), and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.)  The only major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is GIS.  Then, after the close is SCS reports.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, GIS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, it looks as if markets are slightly bullish in the premarket. The three major index ETFs opened modestly higher and are giving us small, white-bodied candles inside Tuesday’s black Spinning Top. QQQ looks like it wants to retest that downtrend line going back to the all-time high in mid-July. At the same time, SPY and DIA are close enough to make another run at their all-time highs again. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed (barely) with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line while the others chase clean air at their highs. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines yet. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green so far this morning. GOOGL (+0.89%) leads the gains. Meanwhile, NVDA (+0.17%) and TSLA (+0.30%) lead, as usual, in the dollar-volume traded.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were a bit divergent, but mostly sideways on Monday.  SPY opened 0.04% lower, DIA gapped up 0.35%, and QQQ gapped down 0.44%.  After that star, all three major index ETFs were more volatile during the first hour, but then ground their way to the side the rest of the day.  This action gave is indecisive candles with DIA and SPY on the upside and QQQ down.  SPY printed a white-bodied, Hanging Man type candle sitting very near the August highs and even the all-time highs from July.  At the same time, DIA gave us a white-body, Spinning Top, candle that printed both a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. Meanwhile, QQQ printed a long-legged Doji Harami type, perhaps indicating it had failed the downtrend line Friday. This happened on below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green again, with Energy (+1.28%) out in front of the others leading the market higher. On the other side, Consumer Cyclical (+0.16%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY increased 0.15%, DIA added 0.59%, and QQQ fell 0.44%. VXX gained just less than one percent to close at 49.24% and T2122 fell slightly but remains in the top of its over-bought range at 94.93.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.621% while Oil (WTI) gained 2.65% to close at $70.47 per barrel.  So, on Monday the Bulls got their new all-time high in DIA.  However, for the most part, it was a “wait and see” day as traders look forward to the Fed rate decision and Chairman’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday was the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in quite a bit stronger than expected at 11.50 (compared to a forecast of -4.10 and the August reading of -4.70).  This was the sixth straight month of increases in this indicator of manufacturing strength. 

In stock news, on Monday, BA announced a hiring freeze, paused all non-essential staff travel, and are considering temporary layoffs according to CNBC.  This comes after the union leader for the 33k striking BA workers said he thinks “the work stoppage will drag on for some time.”  At the same time, the Teamsters Union announced that hundreds of AMZN delivery drivers in NY have joined the union.  Later, TGT announced it will hire 100k season employees this year (in-line with the last three years).  In addition, TGT announced it start its holiday promotions early, on October 6.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CG is reviving its plan to IPO its Nouryon chemical business.  Later, AMZN CEO Jassy announced he intends to streamline the company, eliminating management layers with a goal of increasing the employee to manager ratio by 15%.  He also announced AMZN will require its employees to return to the office five days per week. During a subsequent Q/A session, Jassy also said that AMZN is eliminating a program that let employees work from anywhere for up to four months per year.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that BX and Vista Equity Partners are in advanced talks and near a deal to acquire SMAR for roughly $8 billion ($56/share).  At the same time, an ET natural gas liquids pipeline in La Porte, TX caught fire, knocking out power to nearly 1,000 homes and businesses in the area.  After the close, INTC said it plans to set up its Foundry Services unit as an independent subsidiary. (Many traders see this as a potential pre-cursor to INTC potentially spinning off the unit based on recent comments by CEO Gelsinger that INTC is open to considering the sale of some units.) Separately, INTC announced a multi-year, multi-billion per year, deal with AMZN to co-invest in custom chip designs for use in AMZN’s AWS cloud computing services.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that TUP is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week.  At the same time, MSFT approved a new $60 billion share buyback program and declared a $0.83 Q3 dividend (which is a 10% increase over Q2’s dividend).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Reuters reported that forty of the world’s leading banks have joined the G-7 pilot digital currency project run by the New York Fed.  This list includes JPM, HSBC, UBS, and MUFG.  Later, INTC was awarded up to $3 billion to develop a “Secure Enclave” (which are critical component chips used across a variety of weapons and national security products).  At the same time, a US District Appeals Court ruled in favor of XOM, CVX, DVN, ET, OXY, PSX, and CLR by ruling against an appeal made by two dozen consumers of their 2020 lawsuit.  The court said there was a lack of proof of the companies’ collusion with Russia and Saudia Arabia to cut oil production to keep oil prices higher. Later, an OR state judge threw out a $260 million jury verdict against JNJ related to the company’s talc (which contained asbestos) causing a woman’s mesothelioma. The judge ordered a new trial, saying the plaintiff’s lawyers had committed “egregious errors.”  After the close, the UAW union filed unfair labor practices charges with the NRLB against STLA.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the US offshore energy regulator announced that 20% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production and 28% of its natural gas output in the area remain offline following Hurricane Francine.  Elsewhere, interest rate futures indicated that more traders are expecting a 50-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. Probabilities of a half percent cut increased from 30% a week ago, to 50% on Sunday to 62% after the close Monday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Hong Kong (+1.34%) led eight gaining exchanges higher while Japan (-1.03%) and Shenzhen (-0.88%) led four lower.  The picture is even more green in Europe as 12 of the 14 bourses are above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+0.57%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.61%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.61% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $70.16 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Core Retail Sales and August Retail Sales (both at 8:30 a.m.), August Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), July Business Inventories and July Retail Inventories (10 a.m.), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close is FERG prior to the open.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, FOMC Economic Growth Projections, Fed Chair Press Conference, and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, GIS and SCS report.  On Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

So far this morning, FERG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  FERG also raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if markets are bullish again in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened higher (with QQQ providing the biggest gap up) and have traded modestly bullish from that open. DIA is sitting at another all-time high, SPY is retesting its own all-time high, meanwhile QQQ is back up to retest its mid-term downtrend line stretching back to early-July. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed (barely) with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line while the others chase clean air at their highs. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines yet. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the top end of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears have a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green so far this morning. INTC (+7.13%) is far and away the percentage gainer on the news of the split out of its Foundry business. Meanwhile, NVDA (+0.71%) is, as always, the dollar-volume leader. Only AAPL (-0.17%) lags among the big dogs.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a bullish but mostly sideways day in the market.  SPY opened up 0.12%, DIA opened 0.15% higher, and QQQ opened 0.17% lower. At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied all morning, with DIA reaching the high of the day at noon, SPY hitting its high at 1:40 p.m., and QQQ reaching the high of day at 1:55 p.m. From there, all three went on a modest, undulating selloff the rest of the day.  This gave us white-body candles with upper wicks.  SPY gapped up for its fifth-straight gain on well-below average volume. Meanwhile, DIA gapped up for a third-straight gain and a backing off from the all-time high retest and did this on above-average volume.  At the same time, QQQ gapped down, but closed higher for the fifth-consecutive time and closed just down from its downtrend line going back to the all-time high in early July.  QQQ did this on below-average volume.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green again, with Basic Materials (+1.63%) and Utilities (+1.61%) well out in front leading the market higher. On the other side, Energy (+0.70%), Communications Services (+0.77%), and Consumer Defensive (+0.78%) were the laggard sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.52%, DIA gained 0.72%, and QQQ gained 0.45%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 48.79% and T2122 jumped higher into the top of its over-bought range at 95.09.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.657% while Oil (WTI) gained 0.39% to close at $69.24 per barrel.  So, on Friday saw a strong week come to an end on another positive note.  For the week, SPY gained 4.01%, QQQ gained 5.94%, and DIA “lagged” while gaining 2.59%.  (This was collectively the best week in the market of 2024.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the August Export Price Index, which came in much lower than expected at -0.7% (compared to a -0.1% forecast and July’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, the August Import Price Index was also lower than anticipated at -0.3% (versus a -0.2% forecast and well below the July +0.1% value).  Later, Preliminary September Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported at 69.0 (above the 68.3 forecast and 67.9 August number).  At the same time, Preliminary September Michigan Consumer Expectations also came in above the predictions at 73.0 (versus the 71.0 forecast and 72.1 August value).  On the future outlook front, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were reported down at 2.7% (less than the 2.8% forecast and August reading).  However, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up to 3.1% (compared to a forecast and August reading of 3.0%).

In stock news, on Friday, UBER announced an expansion of its partnership with GOOGL’s Waymo self-driving taxi unit.  The partnership will bring automated ride hailing to Austin TX and Atlanta GA in early 2025.  At the same time, Danish DSDVF announced it had agreed to acquire German logistics firm Schenker for $15.85 billion.  Later, Bloomberg reported that DBRG is considering the sale of its Southeast Asian unit (EdgePoint Infrastructure) for roughly $4 billion.  At the same time, BCSF (Bain Capital) has hired advisers to help in the sale of its British home and car insurer Esure for roughly $1.31 billion).  Later, the CFO of BA told reporters the company is eager to return to talks after a strike of 33k workers at its Pacific Northwest plants have shut down production of the company’s best-selling 737 MAX jets.  He went on to say the strike now puts delivery targets for 737 MAX planes in jeopardy and will have a financial impact unless settled quickly. 

Separately both MCO and Fitch announced they will reduce their credit ratings on BA to “junk status” unless the strike ends quickly. However, no exact definition of “quickly” was provided in either announcement.)  On Saturday, DIS and DirecTV announced they had reached a deal that allowed the latter to resume broadcast of ESPN and DIS’s other channels to DirecTV’s 11 million customers after a two-week shutdown.  (DirecTV appears to have gotten what they wanted from the negotiation.  Specifically, that was the ability to offer DIS channels on an “ala carte” and “skinny package” basis to its customers…as opposed to DIS requiring “all or nothing” offerings of its channels.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that T is again in talks with SATS over the merger of their Dish and DirecTV companies.  (The initial merger attempt was blocked by the US Justice Dept. in 2002 over anti-trust concerns. However, the entertainment market has obviously changed dramatically since then with streaming and cable market growth.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the Washington Post reported that the White House has signaled a delay in making a decision on the Nippon Steel buyout of X. The news comes after Nippon Steel executives flew to Washington to lobby for the deal and the two companies sent a letter to the President urging him to approve the deal or delay the decision until after elections (despite other resistance from both political parties and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US opposing the deal).  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that sources tell it that EU antitrust officials are considering exactly what practices GOOGL will be ordered to end.  However, they will not order the breakup of GOOGL (separating ad technology business from the ad sales unit).  Meanwhile, a DE judge overruled a Newsmax (planning to IPO in late 2024) motion and ruled the company must face trial for its defamation of Smartmatic (as part of a campaign in support of the disgraced former President’s election lies).

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the EU is planning a final vote on raising tariffs on Chinese EVs on September 25.  Later, the State Dept. approved the sale of $7.2 billion of LMT F-35 fighter jets to Romania.  Later, the US EPA said it has found that ADM violated federal safe drinking water laws as well as the company’s underground injection permit with leaks at its carbon sequestration facility in IL.  At the same time, IEP won the dismissal of a lawsuit alleging the company artificially inflated its share price by issuing “unsustainably high dividends.”  Later, after the close, the Dept. of Justice announced WBA had agreed to pay $106.8 million to settle charges it fraudulently billed the US government (Medicare / Medicaid) for prescriptions it never filled. Alsos after the close, Bloomberg reported that INTC has officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make chips for the Dept. of Defense. Saturday, HD agreed to pay $1.98 million to CA for over-charging CA consumers via “checkout scanner violations” where checkout scanners charged higher prices than were listed on the item or shelf.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, China announced it will raise its retirement age for the first time since 1978.  The Chinese male retirement age will go from 60 to 63 while women’s retirement will be pushed from 50 to 55.  For women in management jobs the increase goes from 58 instead of 55. However, the Chinese government will implement these changes slowly to avoid public unrest.  (This seems to be the country’s first real public acknowledgement, without saying it out loud, of the country’s demographic crisis.)  Elsewhere, on Saturday, China’s Commerce Minister announced that foreign direct investment in China, covering January through August, had fallen 31.5% year-on-year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Malaysia (+0.84%) and Thailand (+0.78%) led the gainers while New Zealand (-1.00%) and Shenzhen (-0.88%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with six of the 15 bourses under water at midday.  The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (-0.26%), and FTSE (-0.04%) in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a flat +0.03% open, and QQQ implies a -0.19% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.646% and Oil (WTI) is up almost half a percent to $68.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.).  here are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get August Core Retail Sales, August Retail Sales, August Industrial Production, July Business Inventories, July Retail Inventories, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Current Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 1^st-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 2^nd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, 3^rd-Year Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Longer-Term Q3 Interest Rate Projection, FOMC Economic Growth Projections, Fed Chair Press Conference, and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Current Account, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, August US Leading Economic Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no major news, but Fed member Harker speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from FERG.  Then Wednesday, GIS and SCS report.  On Thursday, we hear from CBRL, DRI, FDS, FDX, LEN, and MLKN.  Finally, on Friday there are no earnings reports of note.

In overnight news, according to Bloomberg the Dollar fell to its lowest level in nine months, with the move driven by a strong Yen, which reached a 14-month high.  Most of these machinations come from speculation on not only the Fed but other central bank rate decisions due this week.  Speaking of anticipated central bank decisions, the Fedwatch tool tells us the futures trader positions indicate a 59% probability of a half percent Fed rate cut Wednesday while a quarter-point cut has a 41% chance.  This is a 30% shift toward half point in the last week.  However, those probabilities are volatile, with 15%-20% moves in a day recently.  Finally, PFE published mid-stage trial results in the New England Journal of Medicine which say its experimental cancer treatment ponsegromab has shown positive results treating the weight loss (loss of appetite) that is caused by the cancer.  (That condition, cachexia, impacts 9 million people worldwide and results in 80% of them dying within one year due to the inability to withstand the actual cancer treatments.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided early in the premarket. DIA opened slightly higher and has put in a white-body candle with almost no wick as it moves to retest its all-time high in the early session. However, SPY opened down modestly and has printed an indecisive Doji candle in the Premarket. At the same time, QQQ opened flat but has printed a black-body candle with little wick as it is working on a Bear Harami candle at this point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. The mid-term trend remains mixed with the QQQ bearish and just below its downtrend line. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend all three major index ETFs. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the top end of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears has a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are split evenly between gainers and losers early, but the dollar-volume trading leaders are in the red, led by NVDA (-1.60%), AAPL (-2.34%), and TSLA (-0.03%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service