Trump Tariff Details Hanging On Slow News Day
Markets opened slightly higher before the Bears stepped in. SPY gapped up 0.10%, DIA opened 0.07% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% higher. All three major index ETFs then followed-through to the upside for 30 minutes. However, then President Trump announced he is planning reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners, which he will announce next week. (In other words, meaning we are likely to see across-the-board tariffs.) That caused the entire market to sell off fast at first and then just steadily the rest of the day. This action gave us large black-bodied candles with modest upper wicks, which crossed back below their T-line (8ema) in all three major index ETFs. SPY and QQQ printed Bearish Engulfing candles in the process. This happened on just below average volume in all three index ETF.
![](https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HRC-Blue-1-1024x386.png)
On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.40%), Basic Materials (-1.08%), and Healthcare (-1.01%) leading the market lower. On the other side, Energy (-0.21%) and Utilities (-0.28%) holding up better than other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.90%, DIA lost 0.95%, and QQQ lost 1.26%. Meanwhile VXX popped 3.36% to close at 43.96 while T2122 dropped back into the lower half of its mid-range, closing at 36.78. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields rose to close at 4.487% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.51%, closing at $70.97 per barrel. So, Friday saw very modest gains on January Payroll data, which was then crushed by Trump talk and his proposed protectionism.
The major economic news on Friday included January Month-on-Month Avg. Hourly Earnings, which came in sharply higher at +0.5% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and December reading). On an annual basis, January Year-on-Year Avg. Hourly Earnings, stayed flat at +4.1% (versus a predicted lower +3.8% but in-line with December’s 4.1% value). For the headline number, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls were down at +143k (versus a +169k forecast and far down from December’s +307k reading). On the private side, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also sharply lower at +111k (compared to a +141k forecast and much lower than December’s +273k number). The January Participation Rate rose a tick to 62.6% (versus December’s 62.5%). Altogether, this gave us a Jan. Unemployment Rate which fell to 4.0% (versus a 4.1% forecast and December value). Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8 (compared to a 71.9 forecast and the January 71.1 reading). On the forward-looking side, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down to 67.3 (versus a 70.0 forecast and 69.3 January value). In terms of inflation outlook, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations SKYROCKETED to +4.3% (up a full percent from the 3.3% forecast and January reading). Looking further out, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations increase was less, now at 3.3% (up a tick from the 3.2% forecast and January value). Later, December Consumer Credit spiked massively to $40.85 billion (dramatically higher than the $17.70 billion forecast and November’s -$5.37 billion number).
In Fed news, on Friday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC he expects the Fed Funds rate to be “modestly lower” by the end of 2025. However, he said that for now the FOMC is in “wait and see” mode due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration policies (mainly tariffs since immigration arrests and deportations are on the same pace as the Obama administration). Kashkari said, “we’re in a very good place to just sit here until we get a lot more information on the tariff front, on the immigration front, on the tax front, etc.” He continued, “Barring something really surprising on the tariff front, immigration front, or fiscal policy front — so taking off some extreme outcomes there — I think inflation will continue to come down over this year.” At the same time, Fed Governor Kugler said she also feels there is “considerable uncertainty about the economic impact of new policy proposals.” She went on to say, “The prudent step is to hold the federal funds rate where it is for some time, given that combination of factors.”
![](https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HRC-Trial-Marigold-1024x386.png)
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six in the red, five in the green, and one unchanged. Hong Kong (+1.84%) leading the gainers while Taiwan (-0.96%) and Thailand (-0.90%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see a brighter picture taking shape at midday with 11 of the 14 bourses in the green. The CAC (+0.23%), DAX (+0.22%), and FTSE (+0.60%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day. DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.44% open, and QQQ implies a +0.69% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are up slightly to 4.497% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.31% to $71.93 per barrel in early trading.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CNA, INCY, NSP, MCD, ON, and ROK. Then after the close, AMKR, ACGL, CINF, CMP, COTY, BAP, MEDP, NGL, VRTX, and WTS report.
In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get the API Weekly Crude Stocks report. Fed Chair Powell also testifies and Fed member Williams speaks. Then Wednesday, January Core CPI, January CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and the January Federal Budget Balance are reported. Fed Chair Powell also testifies and Fed member Bostic reports. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, January Core PPI, January PPI, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, Jan. Core Retail Sales, Jan. Retail Sales, Jan. Export Price Index, Jan. Import Price Index, Jan. Industrial Production, Dec. Business Inventories, and Dec. Retail Inventories are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AN, BP, CG, CARR, KO, DD, ECL, FIS, GFS, HUM, LCII, LDOS, MAR, MAS, RPRX, SPGI, SHOP, SUN, WCC, KLG, ALSN, AMX, AIG, AIZ, BHF, BN, DASH, EW, ET, ES, ECG, EXEL, GILD, IAC, LYFT, MCY, PBI, PRI, ST, WELL, ZG, and Z. Then Wednesday, GOLD, BIIB, BAM, CHEF, CME, CNDT, CVS, DBD, D, EXC, GNRC, IPG, KHC, LAD, MLM, COOP, NI, QSR, R, SITE, SW, SAH, SPTN, TMHC, THC, VRT, WAB, WAT, ALB, AR, APP, CSCO, CPA, CRBG, CW, EIX, EQIX, FAF, GXO, HUBS, KGC, MTW, MGM, MKSI, MSA, NBR, PPC, QDEL, HOOD, ROL, RGLD, SCI, SLF, TTD, TSE, TROX, TYL, VTR, WCN, WFG, and WMB report. On Thursday, we hear from ALNY, ATUS, AEP, HOUS, AVNT, CBRE, CROX, DDOG, DE, DTE, DUK, GEHC, GPN, HBI, HRI, HTZ, HMC, HWM, H, IRM, KNF, LECO, TAP, MCO, DNOW, OGN, PBF, PAG, PCG, PHIN, PPL, SBH, SN, SONY, TU, TIXT, TRU, USFD, WEN, YETI, ZBRA, ZTS, AEM, AL, ABNB, AMAT, BIO, BFAM, CAE, COIN, DVA, DXCM, DLR, DKNG, GDDY, IR, LEG, MSI, PANW, RSG, ROKU, TWLO, and WYNN. Finally, on Friday, AMCX, AEE, AXL, BGC, ENB, FTS, MGA, MRNA, NMRK, POR, TRP, and THS report.
So far this morning, CAN, L, and ROK have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, INCY beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, EPC and MCD missed on both the top and bottom lines.
With that background, it looks like the market is modestly positive in the early premarket. All three major index ETFs opened higher and have printed white-bodied candles since that point in the early session. SPY gapped back above its T-line (8ema), but retested it from above and has, so far, passed that test. However, it is printing a tiny hammer candle. QQQ similarly gapped back above its T-line, has retested from above and has passed that test. However, it has printed a long-handle (wide-range) Hammer in the early session. Meanwhile, DIA made the smallest gap up and remains just below its T-line. However, it has printed the strongest premarket candle a White Marubozu (Shaved Head) candle that has just not quite reached its T-line from below. So, the short-term trend is mixed but leans slightly bullish this morning. The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a choppy mess. In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close to their T-line. Meanwhile, T2122 sits in the bottom half of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green with META (+0.75%), NFLX (+0.73%), and GOOGL (+0.73%) leading a tightly bunched performance. TSLA (-1.53%) I by far the biggest loser and only Big Dog in the red. As far as liquidity goes, NVDA (+0.08%) leads with TSLA right on its heels and the next-heaviest trading Big Dogs having traded only about one-seventh as much dollar-volume as TSLA.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
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