Tuesday was, shall we say, interesting.  After a small gap down in the QQQ (and up open in the large-caps), markets ground sideways for most of the morning, until Fed Chair Powell told us the economy needed more stimulus once again.  This was seen as just the push negotiations needed and markets rallied hard on the news.  Unfortunately, at 3 pm the President tweeted that he has ordered a halt to any negotiations on more stimulus until after the election (so much for “GET IT DONE”).  Stocks immediately fell off the cliff (down 2.50%) and closed near their lows.  The DIA and SPY printed large Bearish Engulfing signals, but all 3 major indices printed big, ugly black candles.  On the day, DIA was down 1.35%, SPY down 1.42%, and QQQ down 1.78%.  The VXX was relatively flat, climbing to 25.26 and T2122 fell, but remains inside over-bought territory at 84.25.  10-year bond yields spiked on the President’s tweet to 0.749% and oil rose to $40.18/barrel.

While the halt to stimulus talks hammered the airline industry, BA had some additional news.  On the down side, BA slashed plane production forecasts by 11% and went on to say they do not expect the industry to recover for 10 years.  However, on the plus side the FAA proposed a pilot training program (for training and certifying pilots to fly the fixed 737 Max) and said they are finalizing the physical changes requirements list that will allow the 737 Max to be recertified.  This is a very positive milestone to getting that plane back on the market.

To top or yesterday’s episode of Political Theatre, our President has again reversed course overnight and is now again urging Congress to approve stand-alone portions of the stimulus program (no negotiation, just give him the parts he wants). Markets seem to taking this as hope for pieces of the stimulus package. However, this may well be just another of his negotiating tactics. No word on if anyone will take his pleading serious or what the Democratic reaction might be this time.

As mentioned yesterday, House Democrats released the Committee Report on the 16-month investigation into anti-trust activities by the tech giants.  The report says that AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG all have monopoly power over their respective industries and should be treated that way.  Specifically, the report calls for prohibiting dominant companies from entering adjacent business lines (such as Google owning YouTube).  It also would increase enforcement agency budgets and tell them to presume a merger is anti-competitive until the merging companies show the merger would not impact competition.   Finally, it calls for prohibiting dominant firms from preferring their own products over competitors (making it hard, impossible, or much more expensive to use competitor products or services).  Republicans have said the broader measures are “non-starters” for the GOP. However, with bi-partisan cooperation on that committee, some changes are expected to be made as a result of the investigation.

On the virus front itself, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,724,207 confirmed cases and 215,849 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count continues to rise and is now back up to 44,310, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat now at 719 after Tuesday’s 790 deaths.  New case counts continue to grow, but the rate increase only rose in half the states overnight (which is actually a decrease in the number of states showing increasing rates, if that makes sense).  Wisconsin continues to experience a very bad situation with record new cases, new hospitalizations and new deaths.  As a result, Governor Evers instituted more emergency orders Tuesday to limit gatherings as well as building and room occupancies.

Globally, the numbers rose to 36,097,083 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,055,639 deaths.  The broadening spread in Paris has the city’s Intensive Care beds filling fast as the patient load jumped overnight from about 420 ICU patients per day a month ago to 1,426 overnight.  Germany also reported the highest new case count since April overnight.  In fact, only 4 of the 27 countries in the EU do not report case counts at what the EU determined to be the “critical” level.

Overnight, Asian markets were slightly mixed, but leaned to the positive side.  Japan was flat, Shanghai down 0.20% and Malaysia down 1.32%.  However, Australian was up 1.25%, Hong Kong up 1.09% and Thailand up 1.08%.  The rest of the region saw more modest gains.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but leaning red with no substantial winners at mid-day.  Among the 3 major European Bourses, the FTSE is flat at +0.06%, the DAX down 0.40%, and the CAC down 0.23%.  The rest of the markets are showing modest losses (except Russia which is down 1.55%) at this point.  As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a significant gap higher.  The DIA is implying a 0.63% gain, SPY a 0.58% gain, and QQQ a 0.53% gains at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Oil Inventories (10:30 am), September FOMC Minutes (2 pm), FOMC Statement (2 pm), and 3 Fed speakers (Kashkari at 1 pm, Williams at 2 pm, and Williams again at 3 pm).  Major earnings reports are limited to LW and RPM both before the open 

Volatility continues its reign. With uncertainty high around the virus, the election, the President’s health (and unpredictable behavior), markets are in a knee-jerk cycle of concerns. If you feel you have to be trading in this environment, be light, be nimble, and be short-term. In any case, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in those profits, because a trader’s job is to make consistent gains…not win bragging-rights about out-guessing some reversal.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NLS, SQ, W, DHI, WHR, LB, AAPL, PINS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap higher about seven-tenths of a percent and continued a strong morning rally apparently on less concern over the President’s health and hope for more stimulus.  After a mid-day grind sideways, a late day rally took the markets out near the highs.  This left us with large white candles across all 3 major indices.  On the day, QQQ closed up 2.13%, SPY up 1.77%, and DIA up 1.70%.  VXX fell 3% to 24.97 and T2122 rose deep into overbought territory at 92.64.  10-year bond yields rose strongly to 0.778% and Oil (WTI) spiked 6% to $39.35/barrel.

On the stimulus story, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin spoke for an hour Monday without reaching a deal.  However, the two sides will exchange proposal documents and are scheduled to speak again today.  In related news, LUV told its union employees that it can only avoid mass layoffs if they take large pay cuts (unknown amount) and that there was no time for long, complex negotiations over this matter. The company has already cut executive salaries by 20%.

Related to the year-long Tech Giant Anti-trust hearings in Congress, a Republican committee member (Buck, CO) told Politico that the committee report will call for AMZN and AAPL being prevented from owning marketplaces in which they sell their own products as well as those of competitors.  Other portions of the Democratic majority recommendations would represent a major update of the Glass-Steagall anti-competition law.  The release of the report is being delayed after last-minute new information surfaced related to the FB purchase of Instagram in 2012 and to incorporate GOP comment and objections.  Buck also told the reporter that the things proposed by the committee are non-starters for Republicans.  In an unrelated story, AAPL stopped the sale of competing speakers and earphones ahead of the launch of their own new products in those areas.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,679,908 confirmed cases and 215,039 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count continues to rise and is now back up to 44,397, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat now at 747.  The new case count is rising in 36 states as of Monday (based on 7-day average). The CDC also revised its guidance again Monday, reversing course to acknowledge that the virus can linger in the air up to hours and can be transmitted via airborne particles.  The FDA also reported that it now expects at least one “emergency use” vaccine application by year-end. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci again warned that the US is still lagging behind where it needs to be on Covid-19 testing coming into Winter.

Globally, the numbers rose to 35,740,361 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,046,633 deaths.  In the EU, the European Medicines Agency has begun a rolling review of the BNTX vaccine (Oxford UK study).  This does not reduce the approval hurdles, but does speed up the process of evaluation.  In good news, India reported the lowest new case total (61, 267) it has seen in 6 weeks.  However, in less bright news, several European countries are introducing new restrictions.  France, has raised the alert level to maximum in the region around Paris, ordering the closing of bars again for at least 15 days.  Germany mandated that Parliament wear masks at all times and the Czech Republic declared a second state of emergency.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side as Australia’s central bank held steady on policy and rates.  India (+1.38%) was the only mover of more than 1%.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but leaning green.  The 3 major European Bourses are all slightly positive, with the FTSE up 0.05%, DAX up 0.17%, and CAC up 0.33%.  The losses seen are all in smaller markets like Denmark, Switzerland, and Amsterdam.  As of 7:30am, US futures are all just on the red side of flat.  The DIA is flat at -0.02%, SPY -0.23%, and QQQ -0.36%.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes August Imports, August Exports, and August Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), August JOLTS (10 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Chairman Powell at 10:40 am, Harker at 11:45 am, and Kaplan (6 pm). On the earnings front, PAYX reports before the open and LEVI reports after the close.

After Monday’s strong bullish run, we still have no stimulus, but the President did get released to the White House medical facilities (versus actual hospital).  With earnings starting in a few days, it seems the market is both assuming and anticipating another shot of “free money” stimulus.  This comes as Piper Jaffray reports teen spending has hit an all-time low.  So, while it’s hard to bet against the bulls here, there is no general economic optimism or stimulus underpinning the move…just expectation.  In fact, most economists say the recovery is slowing and expect some sort of recession in 2021 regardless. So, be very wary of volatility or, heaven forbid, the government or economy not meeting market expectations.  

I was dead wrong yesterday about the gap-and-fade. The bulls never looked back for some unknown reason.  I suppose that’s just another reminder to not predict…just follow the chart. So, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Don’t get too far exposed either direction in this volatile market. Also remember to keep locking-in profits, because a trader’s job is to make consistent gains…not win bragging-rights.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LB, NIO, NUAN, BLNK, FB, AAPL, BA, INTC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets saw a significant gap lower at the open Friday on the news of the President’s positive Covid diagnosis.  However, this gap was immediately faded by more than half as a roller coaster day between the prior close the and the gap-down open ensued.  By day end, all 3 major averages left large upper wicks and bodies at the lower end of the candle.  QQQ was a particularly ugly black-body candle as the FAANGM stocks all got hammered on the day.  At the close, QQQ was down 2.81%, SPY down 0.95%, and DIA down 0.48%.  The VXX gained 3% to end at 25.78 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) jumped back up into overbought territory at 86.40. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.704% and Oil (WTI) fell again to $37.05/barrel.  This all said, the action for the week did break the streak of losing candles for the first time in 5 weeks.

Lost in the “Trump positive test” news cycle was a disappointing September Payrolls report.  While the Unemployment Rate did fall to 7.9% for the month, this happened mostly on a drop in workforce participation (almost 1.1 million people dropped out of the workforce and stopped looking for work) and there were also fewer than expected jobs created in September (660k new jobs versus 800k+ expected). So, combined with the previously reported drop in Personal Expenditures, the economic recovery appears to be weakening significantly and talk of a continuing V-shaped economic recovery is no longer consistent with the data.  However, a weakening economic recovery does not necessarily equate directly to a weakening stock market.

Regarding the stimulus negotiations, White House quarantines, a number of additional positive tests, and staff retesting and isolation protocols (given the incubation periods of the virus) undoubtedly added to the difficulty of negotiations.  However, the main stumbling block Friday continued to be that the two sides are far apart on key issues.  So, while many specific groups (like the airline industry) and the market in general all continue to anticipate more stimulus is imminent, no deal is yet in sight.  However, after the close Friday Senate Majority Leader McConnel said “they were getting closer” and then Saturday the President urged Congress to “GET IT DONE” (as if his negotiators had nothing to do with the process).

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,637,066 confirmed cases and 214,615 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count continues to rise and is now back up to 43,804, while the average of deaths remains 736.  33 states have rising case counts, 26 have increasing hospitalizations, and 12 have increasing death counts due to the virus.  NYC has had to order another shutdown of businesses and schools in the 9 worst-infected zip codes of the city as test positivity has again reached 18% in some areas.   Even worse situations are happening in states across the country, especially the Northern half of the nation, like WI with 24% positive tests, but the South is not spared as MS reached 42% test positivity this weekend (which is noteworthy because their Governor just ended the MS mask mandate).

Globally, the numbers rose to 35,437,479 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,042,344 deaths.  In France, has raised the alert level to maximum in the region around Paris, ordering the closing of bars again in that area as restrictions will last 15 days.  Elsewhere in Europe, cases are surging even more in the UK, where PM Johnson warned the British people to prepare for a rough winter ahead.  In addition, the British Health Minister prohibited mixing of families in any indoor setting for many cities in the north of the country (including Liverpool).  Both Germany and importantly Italy continue to report the highest new case count since April and Poland reported an all-time record number of cases for the third day in a row on Sunday.

Overnight, Asian markets were green almost across the board, with only two Chinese exchanges flat or down.  Australia (+2.59%), South Korea (+1.29%), and Japan (+1.23%) led the gainers.  In Europe, markets are green across the board so far this morning.  The Big 3 bourses are typical, with the FTSE up 0.83%, DAX up 0.74%, and CAC up 0.88%.  As of 7:30am, US futures are following Europe and pointing to a gap higher of two-thirds of a percent in the large-caps and eight-tenths in the Nasdaq apparently on reports or assumptions the President Trump’s health is improving.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to Sept. Service PMI (9:45 am) and Sept. Mfg. PMI (10 am).  There are no earnings reports scheduled on the day.

We all know that the market hates uncertainty and we already had plenty related to the virus, election, and stimulus.  This has been compounded over the weekend by uncertainty about the President’s health, as well as the White House gave us a steady stream political posturing, mixed messages, and outright lies about his treatment and condition. This was punctuated by him pulling a Sunday evening “drive by photo op” stunt for the nightly news cycle.  All this is to say, volatility continues as uncertainty reigns now. 

Personally, I expect a gap-up and then snap-back reaction this morning as over-reaction has been the norm for markets for some time.  Even with a gap-up, the only thing we can do is to trade the chart and right now that shows resistance above with no bullish trend yet in place.  So, we can either continue to sit on the sidelines or be very careful and quick in this market.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Remember to keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: INTC, BA, HD, TOL, NIO, BLNK, LB, URI, BIDU, DDOG, PNR Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets saw a significant gap higher at the open Thursday on renewed hopes for a new stimulus deal.  However, we then faded that gap and started a roller-coaster day bouncing between the prior close and that cap-up open.  In the end, this gave us indecisive Doji or Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, QQQ (led by those huge FAANGM stocks) closed up 1.59%, SPY up 0.64%, and DIA up 0.23%.  VXX was basically flat at 25.01 and the T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) remains in the mid-range at 53.55.  10-year bond yields were also flat at 0.679% and Oil (WTI) fell 4% to $38.58/barrel.

Despite the pre-market optimism Thursday, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin were unable to reach a deal on more stimulus.  This as the airline industry laid off 45,000 workers (more than the 32,000 threatened), but said they would rehire them if aa new $25 billion relief program is passed.  In addition, reports surfaced saying the expiration of the $600 Enhanced Unemployment Payments has already begun causing a drag on the economy in terms of reduced personal expenditures.  And more Fed speakers also echoed prior FOMC comments that more stimulus is needed.  While no deal was reached Thursday, the House did pass another $2.2 Trillion stimulus bill, but again Senate Republicans are likely to not even consider the bill (2^nd since May). Nonetheless, Speaker Pelosi told reporters that talks would continue today.

The (strangely) bi-partisan House Antitrust Committee completed its seventh and final hearing on antitrust actions by AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and FB.  A report will now be written and reviewed by committee members for at least several days.  The themes seem to be increased staffing and funding for enforcement agencies, reversing court decisions that have over-ridden Congressional anti-trust intentions, shifting the burden to companies to prove that mergers were not anti-competitive, and prohibiting “anti-discriminatory” behaviors by companies.  No specifics have yet been leaked on potential legislative remedies.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,497,256 confirmed cases and 212,694 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is back up to 42,952, while the 7-day average of deaths remains 731.  This includes 30 states with increasing new case counts.  Of course, the big US virus news today is that the President, First Lady, and close Trump Aide Hicks all tested positive and are now in quarantine.  Their health is not an issue since they have the best healthcare possible for treating them.  However, the image is important. In other virus news, AMZN reports that just under 20,000 of their employees have contracted Covid-19 so far (but for reference they have 1.37 million employees.  So, compared to the general public, that 20,000 number is a bit over 40% less than expected.) CNBC also reported that vaccine trial participants (for PFE and MRNA candidates) have reported intense side-effects (fever, head/body aches, and exhaustion), but that those symptoms have only lasted a day on average.  However, this was based on a minuscule sample of only 5 test subjects.

Globally, the numbers rose to 34,529,418 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,028,517 deaths. (An increase of about 328,000 cases and 8,934 deaths.)  Italy reported the highest increase in new cases since April on Thursday.  However, following the President’s test results, no more international virus headlines were reported.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Australia (-1.39%), Japan (-0.67%), Thailand (-0.81%) and Indonesia (-0.87%) paced the losers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+0.86%), Hong Kong (+0.79%), and India (+1.51%) paced gainers.  In Europe, markets are red across the board, perhaps in reaction to the positive tests at the White House.  Among the big 3 bourses, the DAX is down 0.96%, CAC down 0.87%, and FTSE off 0.67%.  These are typical for other European markets although some of the smaller markets like Russia, Sweden and Portugal are down significantly more due to their own outbreaks.   As of 7:30am, US futures are following Europe.  We are looking at implied gap downs of about 1.4% in the large-cap indices and 2% in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

The major economic news for Friday includes Sept. Nonfarm Payrolls, Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings, and Sept. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Harker at 9 am).  There are no earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

Prior to the President’s diagnosis, the last Jobs Report before the November election was anticipated to drive markets this morning.  Pre-report consensus expects the report to show a slowing, but continuing recovery of the jobs lost since March.  However, now that there has been a Covid-19 positive, the news cycles and market mindshare are likely to be dominated by that and whether the White House adheres to CDC guidelines on the quarantine and post-positive precautions. That said, the market is prone to over-reaction followed by snap-backs, has a short attention span, and historically-speaking no person (including the President) has tended to have long-term impacts on the market.

After Thursday’s “gap and indecision,” we would normally like to see which way the market breaks. Today’s situation makes that less of a chart-based follow-up. So, be cautious, small, and quick in your trading until we get a read on the trend. Stick to your discipline. Don’t try to predict, chase moves that got away, or abandon your trade plans. Follow the trend and keep locking in profits and reducing risk. Also, regardless of theWhite House situation, today is Friday. So consider whether you want to lighten up over the long news cycle. Among the things we don’t know are what will happen on last-ditch stimulus talks (even though the Senate already left town for a long weekend) and how the situation may impact the President’s tweeting. He may have more time for it now, which is just to say it is an unknown and potential for more market-moving “news.”

Ed

There are no trade ideas today. Members can come to the trading room to see what we look at once things settle, but its too volatile to plan trades in front of the initial over reaction and snap back. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

After the severe disappointment of the Presidential debate and in the face of a bad GDP number, the bulls stood strong, gapping prices slightly higher on hope for a new stimulus deal.  However, later reports of more failure on that front led to a selloff, only to again bounce as the bulls refused to give up.  At the end of the day the 3 major indices were left with large upper wicks with the SPY having failed another test of the 50sma.  On the day the DIA gained 1.20%, SPY gained 0.83%, and QQQ gained 0.68%.  Given the debate fiasco, that was not too bad at all.  The VXX was flat at 24.86 and T2122 remained in mid-range at 54.74.  10-year bond yields rose to 0.686% and Oil (WTI) rose to $39.90/barrel.  This all closed out a down month for September and brought the quarter to an end.

Prior to the open, both Speaker of the House Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin had said they were hopeful for a deal on another round of stimulus.  However, then mid-day Senate Majority Leader McConnell came out to say the two sides were far apart.  At day end Mnuchin said “they had made a lot of progress, but have no agreement” and that they would try again on Thursday.  For their part, House Democrats gave more time for progress, delaying a vote on their latest $2.2 Trillion stimulus bill.  It is notable that once again another trio of FOMC speakers called for more fiscal stimulus to get the economy out of a ditch.  In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said interest rates near zero will be needed for as much as 3 more years until we have weathered this crisis.

After the close, ALL announced they are cutting 3,800 jobs.  JPM also said they will now resume job cuts, after pausing during earlier stimulus rounds, but only announced 400 cuts for now.  In addition, the Fed announced they are extending the limits on big bank dividends and stock buybacks through at least Q4 as new stress tests are kicking off.  UAL and AAL moved ahead with plans cut more than 32,000 jobs as the federal bailout funding ended Wednesday night and no new money has been approved.  Still, in other air industry news the FAA Chief was upbeat after flying in the BA 737 Max during the day, although he said more fixes are needed and gave no timeline for any recertification.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,450,637 confirmed cases and 211,778 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is back up to 42,686, while the 7-day average of deaths is now 731.  MRNA said Wednesday that they do not expect to apply for an emergency use authorization for their vaccine candidate prior to the election.  They said the soonest they would have enough safety data would be November 25.  Meanwhile the AZN trial in the US is still on hold with FDA Chief Hahn refusing to say why, noting the reason is confidential.  However, in better news New York City, indoor dining is being allowed to resume at 25% capacity today.

Globally, the numbers rose to 34,201,965 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,019,580 deaths. (An increase of about 315,000 cases and 6,200 deaths.)  Israel reported a record number of new cases, despite its recently-invoked second lockdown.  Spain announced new restrictions, reducing retail business capacities and outlawing gatherings of more than 6 people.  A large study in India (3 million subjects) has found that super-spreaders are a serious problem with 8% of the infected responsible for 60% of new cases.  The study also found that while children are spreaders, it is primarily among their age group and the much bigger threat of spread comes from people in their late teens and 20s.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on mixed moves.  Australia (+0.98%) and South Korea (+0.86%) led the major markets, while only Shanghai (-0.20%) and Malaysia (-0.53%) showed in the red.  In Europe, we see a very similar story so far today with a lot of green, but uneven moves.  The FTSE (+0.82%) and CAC (+0.84%) are up nicely, but the DAX (+0.29%) has more modest gains.   As of 7:30am, US futures are following Europe and are pointing to significant gaps higher.  The QQQ is leading the way (implied +1.29% open), with both large-cap indices pointing toward a 0.80% gap up. 

The major economic news for Thursday includes August PCE Index, August Personal Spending, and Weekly Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), Sept. Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), Sept. ISM Mfg. PMI and Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment (both at 10 am) and another trio of Fed speakers (Harker at 9:30 am, Williams at 11 am), and Bowman at 3 pm).  Major earnings reports on the day include BBBY, CAG, STZ, and PEP before the open.  There are no major reports after the close.

Hope for a stimulus deal and good earnings reports from BBBY and PEP have the bulls charged up again this morning. However, considerable resistance levels remain overhead…and there is no deal in hand yet. So, be careful expecting politicians to do as you want or as they should. Again, we still do not have a bullish trend, but the bearish trend has been broken. All we know for sure is that volatility and a lack of deliberate tradings remains the norm.

As we start a new month and quarter, markets may be trying to turn the page after a down September by getting off to a fast start. Just don’t let market enthusiasm overtake your discipline or rational thought. Don’t try to predict, chase moves that got away, or break your trading rules. Follow the trend and keep locking in profits and reducing risk. Say it with me…singles and doubles are the keys to success not swinging for the fence. Welcome to October.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: DHI, SPCE, ETSY, QCOM, AAPL, INTC, LEN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets did very little Tuesday, perhaps waiting on either the Presidential Debate or on a stimulus package deal.  After a flat open, stocks traded flat to slightly lower on the day, printing black-body indecisive candles.  The SPY and DIA both failed to break through their 50sma and the QQQ failed to break through its 20sma.  On the day SPY was down 0.53%, DIA down 0.53%, and QQQ down 0.45%.  The VXX was down a bit to 24.91 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 45.12.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.65% and Oil (WTI) dropped almost 4% to $38.99. 

House Democrats unveiled their $2.2 Trillion ($200 billion less than expected) stimulus plan early in the day as talks resumed between Treasury Sec. Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi.  The Tuesday session was simply to outline the new Democrat proposal specifics with actual negotiation talks scheduled to resume Wednesday.  In related news, AAL unions and company officials said up to 19,000 employees will lose their jobs this week unless a deal is reached to support the airline industry.

After the close, DIS announced it will lay off 28,000 employees across its Theme Parks and Consumer Products divisions.  UNH also announced the purchase of an AMZN prescription mail-order service called DivvyDose.  GOOG has made a fresh round of concessions on data gathering as well as allowing third-party wearable device makers to work with Fitbit.  The concessions are likely to earn it the EU approval for its $2.1 billion purchase of Fitbit.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,406,729 confirmed cases and 210,797 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is back up to 42,804, while the 7-day average of deaths is now 755.  New York City spiked to over a 3% positive test rate on Tuesday for the first time in months. The city may reintroduce restrictions as soon as today with the possibility of closing schools again next week if the rate does not fall.  This comes as Bloomberg reports a 40% increase in bankruptcy filings in the city compared to 2019.  In good news, REGN announced after the close that its 2-drug cocktail therapy for Covid-19 has shown to reduce the length symptoms in 275 non-hospitalized virus patients, with serious side-effects in just 2 patients in early testing.  At nearly the same time, MRNA also released its Phase 1 vaccine trial (done in April) findings of an “acceptable safety” level, with only moderate side effects found among the 40 study participants.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,879,038 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,013,241 deaths. Amidst surging R-naught numbers, the Dutch government tightened restrictions Tuesday, reducing restaurant/bar hours, reducing permissible visitors to homes, reducing maximum gathering sizes to 4, and reducing room occupancy to 30.  In Germany, Chancellor Merkel vowed to avoid another full lockdown by using immediate local and regional quarantines as soon as a flare-up is detected.   This all said, France and Spain still report double the new cases daily of the UK, which itself reports triple the number of the next closest country.  So, the immediate new surge seems far worse in the South of Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but lean to the red.  Australia (-2.29%), Thailand (-1.61%), and Japan (-1.5%) pace the losers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+0.86%) and Hong Kong (+0.79%) are the only significant gainers. In Europe the losses are much more widespread so far today.  The only green is in Portugal and Greece, but it should also be said that losses are moderate so far.  The CAC is down 0.44%, the DAX down 0.42%, and the FTSE down only 0.10%.  At 7:30am, US futures are all just on the red side, pointing to a gap down of about half a percent.  However, GDP numbers at 8:30 am may greatly influence the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Q2 GDP (8:30 am), Sept. Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Au. Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 more Fed speakers (Kashkari at 11 am, Bowman at 1:40 pm, and Kaplan at 6 pm).  There are no major earnings reports on the day Wednesday.

Resistance held Tuesday as markets seemed to have been waiting on the debate. The futures this morning appear to signal that they didn’t hear anything they loved. So, we are left waiting on more news (GDP or a stimulus deal) to push the markets one way or the other. The only thing we know for sure is that we do not yet have a bullish trend, but the September downtrend has been broken as volatility continues.

With this being month-end, it is possible we see some window dressing today, although they certainly didn’t start that process yesterday. Don’t try to predict or guess the direction. Mr. Market has a way of making forecasters sorry they played that game. Either sit on the sidelines or be small and quick in your trading, looking for a trend in a smaller timeframe chart.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in those profits, because singles and doubles are the keys to success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TGT, NUAN, BYND, CARR, TWTR, SNAP, PENN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap up open following upbeat remarks from Speaker of the House Pelosi as she was scheduled to speak to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin again during the day to renew negotiations on stimulus.  However, after the gap-up, both large-cap indices held in a tight range right at their 50-sma resistance level printing indecisive Spinning Top type candles.  Meanwhile, the tech-heavy QQQ gapped up even further and printed a much wider range, ending up at the highs of the day in a potential Hanging Man type candle.  On the day, the QQQ was up 2.08%, SPY up 1.68%, and DIA up 1.56%.  The VXX was flat at 25.41 and T2122 jumped clear up into the overbought territory at 82.26.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.661% and Oil (WTI) was up a bit to $40.59/barrel.

In an interesting twist to the tech industry, GOOG announced Monday that starting in a year, all app-makers who distribute through their Google Play Store will be forced to use the GOOG billing system and pay GOOG a 30% fee off the top.  This falls in-line with the current AAPL policies regarding their app store, which they are being sued over by game-maker Epic Games, MTCH, and SPOT over supposed better deals that AAPL gives Netflix.

UAL pilots approved a pay cut to avoid furloughs of nearly 3,000 pilots through at least June 2021.  The 3,000 were set to be laid off on October 1^st prior to the announced deal.  However, the airline is still planning to cut 13,000 jobs next month.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,361,889 confirmed cases and 209,815 deaths.  The 7-day average daily new case count is now at 41,604, while the 7-day average of deaths is now 755.  Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Monday that he is worried about where the US is in terms of daily case count as we enter the Fall/Winter flu season.  This comes as 33 states report rising new case counts (especially Midwest and Western states).  Both Fauci and CDC Dir. Redfield also added their concern that the President is being misinformed by new Task Force Member Atlas (a mask detractor and proponent of herd immunity) added to the Task force after being found to align with the President’s views.  All this comes as VP Pence told a presser that Americans should expect a rise in cases soon based on the worrying testing trends.  Nonetheless, in Chicago Mayor Lightfoot further eased restrictions in the city Monday.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,585,721 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,007,196 deaths.  The WHO said Monday that the global Covid-19 death count is likely an underestimate.  This comes on top of a Journal of Amer. Medial Assn. (JAMA) study that found the US death count is undercounted by as much as 28%.  In Canada, the 2 largest provinces are applying broad restrictions as cases jumped 71% since August.  In Europe, the EU added 4 more countries to the red list (increased cases) including Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland and Hungary.  (Spain, France, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg were already listed).  At the same time German Chancellor Merkel is meeting with the leaders of Germany’s 16 states to discuss introducing tougher restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but closer to flat.  Shenzhen and South Korea paced the gainers while Hong Kong and most of the smaller economies all came in at half a percent to one percent loss.  In Europe markets are leaning to the down side, but the worst of these moves is just over a half percent loss.  Among the 3 major bourses, CAC is flat, DAX down 0.31%, and FTSE down 0.25%.   At 7:30am, US futures are all just on the red side of flat

The major economic news for Tuesday includes August Trade Balance and August Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am), and 5 different Fed speakers (Williams at 9:15 am, Harker at 9:30 am, Clarida at 11:40 am, Quarles at 1 pm, and William again at 1 pm).  Major earnings reports are limited to INFO and MKC before the open and MU and SNX after the close. 

Markets may press pause today as they wait on the outcome of the first Presidential Debate tonight. The bulls have strung together a couple of consecutive nice days, but we still sit at resistance after a pullback of the last four weeks. This is still a volatile market with quarter-end in a couple of days. Don’t try to predict. Either sit on the sidelines or be small and quick in your trading.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in those profits, because singles and doubles are the keys to success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: LB, ETSY, QCOM, MRVL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down slightly Friday, but after bobbing around for an hour the bulls rallied the entire rest of the day.  This gave us “Morning Star Like” candle signals in all 3 of the major indices.  On the day SPY was up 1.62%, DIA was up 1.34%, and QQQ was up 2.32%.  However, none of the three have broken their downtrend as we saw a fourth straight week of lower closes in the SPY and DIA.  The VXX fell 2.48% to 25.54 and T2122 rose to 18.84, but remains just inside the oversold territory.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.656% and Oil (WTI) fell back to $40.04/barrel.

Sunday Speaker of the House Pelosi said she is making another offer to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin in their negotiations while House Democrats move ahead with plans for a new $2.4 Trillion stimulus bill.  She told reporters that the new offer will be revealed shortly and that there is still a chance for a deal.  However, this seems like quite a mountain to climb with the Senate and White House focused on confirming ACB to the Supreme court and both parties heavily into campaign mode (doing their best to appease the extremes of their 2 bases).

In the ongoing TikTok saga, a Federal Judge blocked President Trump’s ban on TikTok and WeChat as unconstitutional Sunday evening.  However, the judge did not block a broader set of restriction set to go into place November 12 that might effectively make TikTok unusable in the US anyway.  Beyond the legal finding, the two sides to the deal (ORCL – WMT) and Byte Dance continue to argue over the terms of the deal, including ORCL claiming Byte Dance will retain no ownership of the new company, while all along it has been reported Byte Dance would retain 80% ownership.   

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,321,465 confirmed cases and 209,454 deaths.  As usual, the weekend new case counts were down after seeing 55,000 on Friday.  The 7-day average daily new case count is now at 41,461. Deaths came back atypically low at 276 while the 7-day average number is now 759.  All this comes as FL Gov. Desantis did his Florida Man impression by completely opening the state and dropping restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 33,342,965 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths passed a grim milestone, now at 1,002,985 deaths.  In the UK, one of the government science advisors has told the press he supports a repeated “mini-lockdown” (14-day) approach as a way to reduce case growth as the UK saw a 60% increase in cases in the last week.  In France, intensive care admissions have more than tripled in the Southern region of the country.  Down under in Australia, an inquiry has found that a “quarantine hotel” failed to do the isolation demanded in May (visitors, including sex workers, having been allowed into the hostel), which led to over 18,000 infections and over 750 deaths in the state of Victoria.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side.  Japan (+1.32%), South Korea (+1.29%), and Taiwan (+1.88%) paced the gainers. China, Indonesia, and Australia led the losers.  However, in Europe stocks are strongly in the green across the board so far today.  The DAX is up 2.61%, CAC up 1.94%, and FTSE up 1.32%.  At 7:30am, US futures are also pointing to a gap higher at the open.  The QQQ is pointing to a 1.70% gap up, and both large cap indices are implying a 1.31% gap up as markets look to rebound after four straight down weeks and Quarter-end coming in a few days.

The only economic news of note for Monday is a Fed speaker (Mester at 2 pm). The only major earnings reports on the day are THO before the open and UNFI after the close.

The bulls are looking to rally at the open. This could be a response to the oversold conditions after 4 down weeks. Or it might be an attempt at quarter-end window-dressing. In either case, be wary of chasing gaps against the trend. All we can do is either sit on the sidelines or be very careful and quick in this market.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: SRNE, PINS, FSLY, GAME. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down about a half percent Thursday after a worse than expected Weekly Jobless Claims number.  However, the bulls stepped in and rallied markets much of the day.  Then about 2pm markets sold off again taking us back near Wednesdays close before a last-minute rally.  On the day, QQQ was up 0.47%, SPY up 0.28%, and DIA up 0.19% with all 3 leaving large upper wicks.  The VXX fell about 2% to 26.19 and T2122 stayed deeply oversold at 1.50.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.664% and Oil (WTI) rose three-quarters of a percent to $40.22/barrel.

Regardless of your political or economic philosophy, we know markets love “free money” coming from Washington. So, in a follow-up story to the Fed requests for more fiscal stimulus this week, House Speaker Pelosi has instructed her committee chairs to draft another relief package (which will undoubtedly look very similar to the previous package the House passed).  It will include additional enhanced unemployment, direct payments to Americans, small business loans, and aid to the airline industry. The House may vote on this new bill as soon as early next week and the new price tag is said to be $2.4 trillion (which is essentially exactly where the Democrats were when the talks collapsed, but $1 trillion below the last bill the House passed in May).  Last week White House Chief of Staff (and negotiator) Meadows had said the Administration would okay $1.5 trillion.  So, the hope is that this new bill will restart negotiations. However, it remains a longshot as the sides (and even factions on the Republican side) remain far apart.

Following-up to the “TikTok Deal” story (involving ORCL and WMT), things are still unclear.  The Chinese government has not approved the deal, but Byte Dance has applied for a Chinese export license which would allow a partial transfer.  In the US, a Federal Judge has asked the Administration whether it will defer the ban on TikTok and WeChat again or defend their policy in hearings over the weekend.  (No reply yet.)  Meanwhile the President’s claims that ORCL would get full access to all TikTok source code conflicts with Byte Dance’s statements that the new company would buy use of the algorithms, etc. from the Chinese-located parent company, which is where actual processing would occur. And, of course, the President’s claim that Byte Dance would pay $5 billion for an educational project have been denied by Byte Dance.  However, it is known the claim that the board of the new company would all be Americans is false.  The board would include 4 undetermined American Citizens and Chaired by Byte Dance founder Zhang Yiming (with Byte Dance holding 80% of the ownership).   

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,185,915 confirmed cases and 207,540 deaths.  The daily new case count grew to 45,355, well above the 7-day average of new cases.  Deaths came back to typical numbers at 942 for Thursday, well above the average of 761 per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 32,454,833 confirmed cases and 988,497 deaths.  As witnessed by the lockdown in Israel, there appears to be a surge in the middle east with Lebanon, UAE, Bahrain.  Oddly, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar have all reported dramatic drops in the number of new cases over the last month.  In Europe, the spread continues with Poland, Russia, and the Czech Republic all seeing the highest increase in cases in several months.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with India, Australia, and Japan pacing the winners.  China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong paced the losers, though most losses were moderate.  However, stocks are decidedly bearish so far today in Europe.  The DAX is down 1.67%, CAC down 1.76%, and FTSE down 0.57%.  The rest of the bourses are all well into the red as well. At 7:30am, US futures are pointing to another gap down open.  The QQQ is pointing to a modest open 0.30% lower, but the large-cap SPY (-0.63%) and DIA (-0.78%) are implying a bigger gap down as markets are staring into a fourth straight losing week.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to August Durable Goods (8:30 am). There are also no major earnings reports for the day.

The bulls tried to come back on Thursday, but rolled over and gave back ground in the afternoon.  This left us with nothing but an indecisive day in a downtrend.  While this relative pause was expected after a brutal Wednesday, it does nothing to buoy spirits coming into Friday.  The bears continue to smell blood and volatility remains high.  All we can do is either sit on the sidelines or be very careful and quick in this market.  If you do trade, stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs.  Finally, remember it’s Friday.  So make a conscious decision about what positions and/or hedges you want to carry over the weekend news cycle.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TZA, SDS, SQQQ. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened mixed on small gaps, but then the bears took over for an all-day selloff with prices closing near the lows.  The SPY and DIA printed large Bearish Engulfing candles and the QQQ missed only due to a small gap-down open.  In particular, TSLA was hammered (-10.34%) over poor “Battery Day” announcements, but to be fair, all the FAANGM stocks were hit hard.  On the day, DIA was down 1.92%, SPY down 2.32%, and QQQ down 3.05%. The VXX gained over 5% and T2122 fell dramatically deep into the oversold territory at 1.11.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.674% and Oil (WTI) was only down slightly to $39.55/barrel.

JPM agreed to pay a $1 billion penalty for manipulations (spoofing) of the metals and treasuries markets to end the ongoing investigations by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the SEC.  However, the settlement is not expected to result in any business restrictions against JPM.  (Spoofing is the practice of floor traders submitting orders to force prices one direction or the other and then canceling the orders before they are executed.) In either an odd coincidence or a case of PR, within an hour of that announcement, JPM also announced they are spending $1 billion to for a workplace diversity program.

A couple of quick tidbits:

• Fed Chair Powell again urged the Senate to provide more fiscal stimulus. This was more of a case of pleading than the prior day’s testimony before the House.

• In an interesting twist to the trade war, TSLA has sued the US government.  They are demanding an end to tariffs on parts they import from China as well as a refund of the tariffs they have paid since 2019 (plus interest).  They may have a point when companies like AAPL got exemptions after appeals directly to the President.

• IBKR signaled that they expect a big account default risk around the election.  In a message to account holders, they said they are raising Margin Requirements to 67.5% (from 50%) and the Maintenance Requirement to 33.75% (from 25%).  They specifically noted the options prices indicate huge volatility around the election, especially the increased probability of a contested election.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,140,137 confirmed cases and 206,598 deaths.  The daily new case count was at 41,616 Wednesday, just above the 7-day average of new cases, which is 41,293 per day (about double where they were when easing began).  Deaths came back to typical numbers at 1,112 for Wednesday, well above the average of 751 per day.  CDC Chief Redfield told the Senate that over 90% of Americans are still susceptible to the virus based on a preliminary study by the CDC.  Meanwhile, 22 states reported rising new case counts.  For his part, President Trump told reporters that he has the right to overrule the FDA and their guidelines for approving the use of any vaccine.  As reported in past weeks, the JNJ vaccine just now starting Phase 3 trials could be a game-changer.  Instead of needed 2-3 doses, it requires only 1 dose, and most importantly it does not need to be stored at 50 degrees below zero like the other candidates in Phase 3.  However, the JNJ Phase 3 trial is just starting and they need 60,000 participants (when it has taken 1-2 months for others to find 30,000-40,000).

Globally, the numbers rose to 32,134,999 confirmed cases and 982,698 deaths.  Israel has significantly tightened its second national lockdown as cases continue to rise.  The new measures call for total lockdown (closed non-essential business and government offices as well as all public spaces) for 2 weeks followed by 2 more weeks of “closure.”  In the UK, the government is mulling a plan to accelerate vaccine trials by deliberately exposing participants to the virus (which would greatly decrease the time it takes to reach statistically significant numbers for the trial).  Oddly, the UK also said that at the peak of the first wave they were seeing 100,000 new cases per day, but are now only seeing 10,000/day.  This is odd because they have reported only 412,000 total cases

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board.  Japan, China, and South Korea all lost 1.5% – 2.5%.  A similar story is shaping up in Europe, but so far the red is much more modest as of mid-day.   At 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat to a slightly lower open.  Only the QQQ is pointing to more than a 0.15% gap down (at -0.40%) with markets possibly waiting on jobless data for a guide.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), August New Home Sales (10 am) and 3 speakers (Fed Chair Powell at 10 am, Tres. Sec. Mnuchin at 10 am, and FOMC member Williams at 2 pm).  However, there are several earnings reports with CAN, DRI, JBL, KMX, and RAD reporting before the open.  Then after the close COST reports.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to September PMI (9:45 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Chair Powell testifies again at 10 am, Mester at 9 am, and Quarles at 2 pm).  However, there are major earnings reports with CTAS, GIS, and JKS before the open. Then FUL reports after the close.

Given Wednesday’s heavy selloff, the fact we are near potential short-term support, and the extreme oversold T2122, it is possible we see a rest day today.  However, the bears do smell blood and the high-flying FAANGM stocks that have dragged markets up for months are showing no signs of life.  Be careful of volatility and remember that you do not have to trade every day.  You won’t miss anything.  There will be another train coming into the station tomorrow.  If you do trade, as always, stick to your plans, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  Keep locking-in profits, because it’s the singles and doubles that add up to championships, not the occasional home runs. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: BBBY, SQQQ, SQ, MAS, XRT, URI, NVR. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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