Tuesday saw markets gap down again with SPY opening down 0.44%, DIA opening down 0.45%, and QQQ opening down 0.32%.  After that open, the Bears were able to follow through to the downside for the first hour.  At that point, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in waves not far up off the lows until 3 pm.  From there, all three sold off in the last hour, reaching new lows for the day.  This action gave us gap-down, large-body, black candles in all three major index ETFs.  DIA printed what can easily be seen as an Evening Star signal that broke through the recent support level.  Meanwhile, QQQ printed a Bearish Harami that failed its T-line.  SPY did not print a signal, but definitely took out recent lows and at best (from a Bullis standpoint) could be seen as right at the potential support level now..

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Financial Services (-1.85%) and Basic Materials (-1.84%) out front leading the way lower and Healthcare (-0.41%) holding up far better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 1.16%, DIA lost 1.01%, and QQQ lost 1.05%.  VXX gained 5.76% to close at 24.77 and T2122 dropped deep into the oversold area at 5.76.  10-year bond yields continued to climb to 4.217% while Oil (WTI) was down 1.85% to close at $80.97 per barrel. This all took place on less-than-average volume across all three major index ETFs.  So, the bears got a big tailwind overnight from the Fitch banking sector warnings and that was reinforced when Fed Member Kashkari advocated “significantly higher” capital requirements for banks (beyond even the just hinted and not yet proposed new ones from the Fed, FDIC and Comptroller of the Currency).           

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the July Export Price Index, which came in much higher than expected at +0.7% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and far higher than the June reading of -0.7%).  At the same time, the July Import Price Index also came in high at +0.4% (versus the forecast of +0.2% and the June value of -0.1%). July Retail Sales also increased much more than predicted at +0.7% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and a June value of +0.3%).  However, the Preliminary August NY Empire State Mfg. Index was reported far lower than anticipated at -19.0 (versus a forecast of -1.0 and even worse compared to the July reading of +1.10).  Later in the morning, June Business Inventories came in lower than expected at +0.0% (versus the forecast of +0.1% and the May value of +0.2%).  At the same time, June Retail Inventories also came in lower than predicted at +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and a May reading of -0.1%).  Then, at the close, the June TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (which is the difference between foreign securities bought by the US citizens versus US securities bought by foreigners…it measures whether money is flowing into or out of our markets) came in higher than expected at +$195.9 billion (compared to a forecast of +107.2 billion and far above the May value of +$23.6 billion).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report showed a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown of 6.195 million barrels (versus the forecasted drawdown of 2.050 million barrels and much lower than the prior week’s 4.067-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed-speak news, in addition to his statements calling for even stricter banking regulations, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he was not ready to say the Fed is done raising rates.  Specifically, Kashkari said, “I’m seeing positive signs that say, hey, we may be on our way; we can take a little bit more time to get some more data and before we decide whether we need to do more.”  At the same time, he said the Fed is “a long way” from cutting rates, even though there is a possibility of cutting them next year “just to keep monetary policy at a stable point.”

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In stock news, Reuters reported that sporting-related companies NKE, ADDYY, and DKS are scrambling to unload products at significant discounts after the US Women’s World Cup Soccer team failed to make the second round of the World Cup Soccer Tournament.  They reported that various retail analysts were seeing 25%-35% discounts on jerseys, t-shirts, sweats, and other branded apparel.  Elsewhere, BP announced they have invested in a start-up company that is seeking to use vapor from heavy industry locations to sharply reduce the production costs of zero-carbon hydrogen.  At the same time, financially troubled UP said Tuesday that it will give up to 95% of its common stock to investment firms in return for a $500 million lifeline.  The investors include DAL and two private equity firms.  Later, BLNK announced it will be expanding its Latin American electric charging network.  The company had previously committed to 2,100 EV chargers across eight countries in the region.  In unrelated news, TSLA launched two cheaper and shorter-range versions of its Model S and Model X cars.  (Both will have exactly the same hardware, but will use software to limit the range.  The shorter-range version will be about $10,000 less than their “full range” sister products.)  Late in the day, private firm Esmark said it had $7.8 billion of cash in the bank and was ready to close an acquisition of X (the all-cash offer was made Monday).  After the close, OXY announced it would be acquiring carbon-capture firm Carbon Engineering for $1.1 billion.  At the same time, drugmaker MNKKQ announced it is preparing to seek bankruptcy protection for the second time in three years after failing to make a $200 million settlement payment to opioid victims.  In addition, LUV announced it has reached a tentative agreement with the union representing over 17,000 transport of its workers who handle ramp, cargo, and provisioning operations.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the White House and CFPB announced plans to regulate companies in the surveillance industry, including the data brokers that accumulate and sell consumer personal data.  The announcement specifically called out EXPGF, TRU, and EFX (consumer credit rating agencies) for selling “credit header information” such as names, addresses, and social security numbers.  This comes after the FTC sued (in late 2022) an Idaho company for selling cell phone geolocation data.  Elsewhere, the 4^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that WBA must face trial (it revived the lawsuit) for defrauding the US and the state of VA related to billing and eligibility of patients for expensive hepatitis C drugs.  (A lower court had dismissed the trial on the odd reasoning that WBA had violated federal law in its pre-authorization filings making the post-treatment billing irrelevant.  The Appeals Court rejected that idea.)  At the same time, Canada’s corporate ethics watchdog announced Tuesday that it is investigating RL over allegations the company uses forced labor (including Uyghur labor) in its Chinese production facilities.  Meanwhile, NY state fined CAR $275,000 for refusing to rent vehicles to people who do not have credit cards, even if they offered to pay a deposit.

After the close, A, HRB, JKHY, NU, and LRN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that A also lowered its forward guidance. So far this morning, JD, TCEHY, and TJX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EAT, PFGC, and TGT missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  It is worth noting that TGT cut its full-year guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board with only two of the twelve exchanges barely hanging onto green territory.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.76%), Japan (-1.46%), and Hong Kong (-1.36%) led the region lower.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed but still leans toward the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.07%), DAX (+0.05%), and FTSE (-0.48%) are leading the region lower with five green and 10 red bourses (Russia being down 2.11%) in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.05% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have pulled back a bit to 4.186% and Oil (WTI is flat at $80.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Wednesday includes July Building Permits and July Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), July Industrial Production (9:15 am), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include EAT, JD, PDGC, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, and ZIM.  Then, after the close, AVT, SQM, CSCO, KE, STNE, and SNPS report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no significant economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, we hear from ARCO, BILI, DOLE, NICE, TPR, WMT, AMAT, FTCH, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST.  Finally, on Friday, DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW report.

In miscellaneous news, China lowered its one-year and medium-term interest rates by 15 basis points to 2.5% on Tuesday.  Even as modest as it was, that was the largest cut in three years.  However, interest rates are far from China’s largest problems as another of China’s largest real estate developers is at risk of loan defaults and the country’s largest financial conglomerate (Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, often called China’s Blackstone) just missed payments on its investment products.  In addition, later Tuesday, it was reported that new bank loans fell to a 14-year low.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that CS’s Annual Global Wealth Report found that global household wealth fell last year for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.  Total net private wealth decreased by 2.4% to a total of $454.4 trillion in 2022. 

In late-breaking news, Nielsen reports that for the first time ever, TV (broadcast and cable) viewing dropped below 50% of all views.  At the same time, streaming media viewing rose to 39%.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports there is discontent in the ranks of senior management at GS.  Apparently, a large faction of senior GS managers want the CEO (Soloman) replaced.  Finally, China is going further in its efforts to prop up its economy by asking some of the largest investment funds in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges to be “net buyers of stocks.”  No carrot or stick was mentioned in the report.  Instead, it was just a request and exhortation, which may imply something in China that it doesn’t in other parts of the world.  China is also considering reducing the country’s “stamp duty” (which is a government fee for approval of loans, leases, insurance, and other financial contracts). 

With that background, it looks like traders are undecided this morning with small-body candles near Tuesday’s close level. The trend remains bearish with all three major index ETFs below their T-line (8ema). Only the SPY is sitting at a potential support level at this moment but the other two are not far above their own potential support. Of course, the long-term trend is still hanging on to a bullish incline but it is being pushed by the Bears over the last three weeks. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are too far from the T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now oversold, but not yet quite pegged to the bottom of its range. So, both sides have some slack to work with. However, the Bulls have more room to run.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Markets opened just on the red side of flat Monday (gapping down 0.21% in the SPY, down 0.08% in DIA, and down 0.22% in the QQQ).  However, the Bulls took over early and rallied all three major index ETFs to highs by 11 am.  Then the doldrums took over to give us a sideways grind in all three major that lasted until 3:55 pm.  Finally, we saw a strong rally the last 5 minutes of the day in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  This action gave us Morning Star signal candles in the SPY and QQQ with the SPY closing right up against its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, DIA was much more indecisive, printing a white-bodied Spinning Top that closed just above the T-line after retesting that level. It’s worth noting that chip stocks (NVDA, MU, MRVL, and AMD) really led the parade Monday.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+1.25%) way, way out front leading the way higher and Utilities (-1.13%) far behind, lagging the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.54%, DIA gained just 0.05%, and QQQ gained 1.12%.  VXX lost 1.68% to close at 23.43 and T2122 fell a bit but remains in the mid-range at 28.02.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.201% while Oil (WTI) was down 0.76% to close at $82.56 per barrel. This all took place on average volume in the QQQ and well below average in the large-cap index ETFs.  So, we saw a minor gap lower met with pretty much immediate buying.  However, after that move, markets just treaded water until the end of the day when the Bulls drove us higher into the close.         

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, the NY Fed did release its monthly survey of consumer inflation expectations.  The survey found that, on average, in July consumers now expect inflation to be at 3.5% a year from now down sharply from the 3.8% average expectation one month ago (June).  This was the lowest expectation reading since April of 2021.  In addition, 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations also dropped, although not as much, from 3.0% to 2.9%.  The survey also found positive improvements in consumer views on their personal finances and the job market over the next year.  The percentage that expect their personal situation to improve over the next year rose to the highest level since September 2021. Elsewhere, US bank regulators (FDIC, Fed, and Office of the Comptroller) said they will soon propose new regulations that require any bank with more than $100 billion in assets to issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses in the event they ever fail.

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In stock news, PYPL named current INTU exec. Alex Chriss as its new CEO.  Chriss will take over for the current CEO on September 27.  At the same time, AMC stock gapped sharply lower (closing down 35.55%) while APE (preferred shares of AMC) closed up 16.29%.  This was the result of fear that the recent settlement of shareholder legal challenges will allow AMC to issue more shares, diluting the existing ones.  (Also AMC announced at 10-to-1 reverse split for August 24 with all APE shares converted to common stock on August 25.)  Over in China, shares of electric vehicle makers (LI, XPEV, NIO, and BYDDY) fell as TSLA announced more price cuts as it continues the EV price war.  Later, HE fell 35% based on fear of the electric utilities’ potential liability from the fires on Maui last week.  At the same time, CHK announced Monday it will sell its remaining “Eagle Ford” assets to SBOW for $700 million.  Elsewhere, KHC named insider Carlos Abrams-Rivera as its new CEO. At the same time, BTAI announced it will cut more than 50% of its workforce as it pivots to restructure the business.  By mid-afternoon, FFIE announced it has delivered its first Futurist Alliance 2.0 car (priced at $309k).  This “electric supercar” has more than 1,000 horsepower (doing 0-60mph in 2.27 seconds) and the ability to go 381 miles between charges.  Late in the day, there were two updates to the Monday morning report that X had turned down a CLF offer to buy the steelmaker out.  On Monday, the USW union threw its support behind the CLF offer to buy CLF.  At the same time, privately-held Esmark made an offer of $7.8 billion ($35/share) for X (the rejected CLF offer was $7.3 billion).  After hours, LL announced it has begun exploring “strategic alternatives.”  LL shared plummeted 19% in post-market trading on that news.

In stock legal and regulatory news, GOEV revealed Monday that it has finalized $113 million in incentive agreements with the state of OK and the North American Cherokee Nation.  The deal would allow GOEV to earn $113 million over 10 years if it meets the set performance objectives.  Elsewhere, President Biden called on F, GM, STLA, and the UAW to come together to reach a fair agreement. (No mention was made of the potential to invoke a 30-day non-strike cooling-off period.)  Later, UBS agreed to pay $1.435 billion to settle US charges that the Swiss lender misled investors, leading them to buy distressed mortgage securities in 2008.  (The impressive thing is that UBS managed to drag out the process for 15 years.  For example, CS, which UBS bought in June, paid $5.28 billion for the same crime…but way back in 2017.)  At the end of the day, NKLA recalled all battery-powered trucks it has delivered and stopped sales of new ones after an investigation found battery coolant leaks led to fires.  At the same time, an Australian court fined DELL $6.5 million for misleading customers about discounts for add-on computer monitors.  In addition, the FTC fined EXPGF (Experian) $650,000 for spamming consumers with marketing emails without providing a way to opt-out.  Meanwhile, the FDA approved PFE’s blood cancer therapy named Elrexfio.  At the same time, K won a 3-0 decision by the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals where plaintiffs had sought to revive a class action suit against K over the label claims on the amount of protein in its cereal.

After the close, GSM and XP both missed on revenue while beating on earnings. So far this morning, CAH and HD reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ESLT, IHS, and ONON beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, SE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, TME missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that IHS lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (-1.03%), South Korea (-0.79%), and Shenzhen (-0.70%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.56%), Australia (+0.38%), and Taiwan (+0.37%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning heavily toward the bearish side at midday.  The CAC (-1.27%), DAX (-1.04%), and FTSE (-1.45%) are leading the region lower with only two exchanges in the green in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.61% open, the SPY is implying a -0.57% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.52% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking again to 4.231% and Oil (WTI) is down more than one percent to $81.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Tuesday includes July Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), June Business Inventories and June Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), June TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 pm), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report (4:30 pm).  Fed member Kashkari also speaks at 11 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include CAH, ESLT, HD, HIS, SE, and TME. Then, after the close, A, COHR, HRB, JKHY, NU, and LRN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, July Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no significant economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, EAT, JD, PDGC, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, AVT, SQM, CSCO, KE, STNE, and SNPS reports.  On Thursday, we hear from ARCO, BILI, DOLE, NICE, TPR, WMT, AMAT, FTCH, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST.  Finally, on Friday, DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW report.

In miscellaneous news, Nomura Securities released data from its study of 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options.  The study found that 0DTE contracts are surging in use, accounting for more than 55% on S&P500 Index volume on a single day recently (1.86 million contracts).  The study also found that contrary to the past (when Call options were the most widely used) over the last 20 days 0DTE Put options had about 10% more volume than 0DTE Call options.  Elsewhere, Argentina made some “moves” on Monday, devaluing their currency 18% against the Dollar and hiking their central bank interest rate 21% to a staggering 118%.  Overnight, Russia’s central bank called an “unscheduled emergency meeting” in the hope of stopping the crash of the Ruble. 

In late-breaking news, Fitch announced warnings for dozens of US banks overnight.  This is the primary driver behind the strength of the bears in Europe and in the US premarket.  The warning said that if the industry score were to drop from AA- to A+ (a one-step downgrade), it would be forced to rerate all 70 major US banks it covers.  As of now, Fitch rates BAC, BNY, JPM, and STT as AA-.  It has MS and WFC at A+.  They rate BOKF, C, GS, and UMBF at A.  Fitch has CBU at A-.  COLB, HTH, and WTFC are rated BBB+ by them.  Meanwhile, BKU, EWBC, FINN, SNV, and TRMK are at a BBB rating. Finally, among the investment grade banks, Fitch has WAL at BBB-.  Fitch rates CATY and PACW as “below investment grade” BB+. 

So far this morning, JKS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (ERJ has not yet reported.)

With that background, it looks like the bears have gapped the premarket down and have kept the pressure on with black-bodied candles sitting at the low of the early session. DIA has dropped back down through its T-line (8ema). The short-term trend remains bearish, but the long-term trend is still hanging on to a bullish incline but it is starting to be pushed. As far as extension goes, all of the major index ETFs remain close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw a gap lower following a hotter-than-expected PPI number. The SPY gapped down 0.44%, DIA gapped down 0.21%, and QQQ gapped down 0.71%.  However, like the reverse of Thursday, the Bulls stepped in to rally until 10:30 in the QQQ and 10:45 am in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of the large-cap index ETFs recrossed the gap with the DIA traveling triple the distance of that opening gap down.  From that point, all three major index ETFs rode the rollercoaster sideways within a modest range.  This action gave us white-bodied candles across the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  DIA had the smallest wicks, closing back up across the T-line (8ema) and printing a Piercing candle.  At the same time, the SPY printed a gap-down, Spinning Top and QQQ printed a gap-down, white-bodied Doji, that gapped down through and failed a retest of its 50sma.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.91%) way out front leading the way higher and Technology (-0.75%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.06%, DIA gained 0.32%, and QQQ lost 0.64%.  VXX lost almost four percent to close at 23.83 and T2122 climbed slightly and remains in the mid-range at 31.43.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.158% while Oil (WTI) was up fractionally to close at $83.04 per barrel. This all took place on average volume in the QQQ and well below average in the large-cap index ETFs.  So, it was a whipsaw day with a gap and a reversal followed by waves the rest of the day.  Once again, after a lot of travel, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up very near where they started.      

The major economic news reported Friday included July month-on-month PPI came in hotter than expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the June reading of +0.0%). Later, the Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in just a bit better that anticipated at 71.2 (versus a 71.0 forecast but a bit lower than the July value of 71.6).  Meanwhile, the Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Expectations came in a bit lower than expected at 67.3 (compared to a forecast of 68.1 and the July reading of 68.3).  At the same time, Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations were reported better than predicted at 3.3% (versus to a forecast of 3.8% and better than the July reading of 3.4%). Over the longer term, the Preliminary August Michigan 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also came in lower than anticipated at 2.9% (compared to a forecast of 3.0% and a July value of 3.0%).

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In Fed news, Reuters provided a breakdown of current Fed members that may be useful.  Doves include Harker (Philly), Bostic (Atlanta), Daly (San Fran), Logan (Dallas), and Barkin (Richmond).  Those leaning dovish are Goolsbee (Chicago), Cook (Governor), Collins (Boston), and Kashkari (Minny).  Centrists include Williams (NY), Jefferson (Governor), and Barr (Vice-Chair).  Those who lean hawkish are Powell (Chair), Bowman (Governor), and Mester (Cleveland).  Finally, the Hawks are Waller (Governor), and Bullard (St. Louis).

In stock news, the tense and ugly negotiations between the “Big 3” automakers and the UAW continued Friday.  After the UAW threw the latest STLA in the trash the prior week, STLA firmly rejected the UAW counter-offer calling for the union to “focus on reality.”  (The current 4-year deals between the UAW and GM, F, and STLA end on September 14, and a strike has already been authorized by the union.)  Elsewhere, an F joint venture with a Chinese state-owned automaker (owned 50-50) is now planning its own joint venture with that same Chinese state-owned company (Chongqing Chagan Automotive) to launch an electric vehicle manufacturer. This will leave the Chinese state owning 70% of the EV venture.  Later, WYNN announced it is “winding down” its online sports betting platform WynnBET, saying that customer acquisition costs were too high (too much competition) and rules across different states were not clear.  For now, they have ceased operation in AZ, CO, IN, LA, NJ, TN, VA, and WV.

In stock legal and regulatory news, Reuters reported Friday that the SEC has begun an investigation into ILMN’s $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail (a cancer detection test kit maker) in 2021.  Details are not available yet, but the investigation seems to be related to certain management statements and compensation connected to the deal.  (The EU fined ILMN $476 million in July for closing the deal without EU approval.)  Elsewhere, a US District judge dismissed a lawsuit against SBUX on Friday.  The Chief judge of the district called it a frivolous suit by a conservative activist group who were challenging SBUX’s diversity, equity, and inclusion policies.  The judge said the group’s statements in filings clearly show the suit was meant to make political points rather than address any losses from the group’s $6,000 of SBUX stock.  Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Transportation and China have agreed to double the number of flights between the two countries.  UAL, AAL, DAL, CEA, ZNH, and AIRYY are the airlines currently offering flights between the two destinations.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily toward the red with only two of the region’s 12 exchanges hanging onto the green.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.58%), Singapore (-1.41%), Japan _1.27%), and Taiwan (-1.25%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a much more bullish picture taking shape with nine of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The FTSE (-0.31%) lags while the CAC (+0.22%), and DAX (+0.44%) lead the region higher.  However, it should be noted that even with the Russian Ruble falling to a 17-month low against the Dollar, the Russian exchange is up 2.14% in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the week. The DIA implies a +0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have climbed to 4.148% and Oil (WTI) is down four-tenths of a percent to $82.84 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economics news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ERJ and JKS.  Then, after the close, GSM and SU report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get July Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, June Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, June TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report.  Fed member Kashkari also speaks.  Then Wednesday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, July Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no significant economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday we hear from CAH, ESLT, HD, HIS, SE, TME, A, COHR, HRB, JKHY, NU, and LRN.  Then Wednesday, EAT, JD, PDGC, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, AVT, SQM, CSCO, KE, STNE, and SNPS reports.  On Thursday, we hear from ARCO, BILI, DOLE, NICE, TPR, WMT, AMAT, FTCH, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST.  Finally, on Friday, DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW report.

In miscellaneous news, the Fed reported Friday that US large bank deposits rose by $17.60 billion to the $17.36 trillion level in the week ended August 2.  At the same time, US commercial bank lending also rose by $9.3 billion to $12.132 trillion (adjusted) during the same week.  Elsewhere, Refinitiv Lipper reported that investors withdrew $14.96 billion from US equity funds in the week ending August 9.  This was the biggest outflow in seven weeks. Finally, GS economists are now predicting Fed rate cuts starting in Q2 of 2024.

In late-breaking news, on Sunday X announced it has rejected a $7.3 billion unsolicited buyout offer from rival CLF. (This would have been a 43% premium over Friday’s closing price for X.) The X management said it has rejected the offer because CLF was trying to force X to make its decision without doing enough due diligence.  However, X said it is reviewing its strategic alternatives after receiving the offer.  (Bear in mind that any deal is likely to face regulatory pushback since CLF is already the largest steelmaker in the US while X is also in the top four steel producers.)

So far this morning, JKS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (ERJ has not yet reported.)

With that background, it looks like premarket action started higher but is indecisive at best since then. The SPY did try to retest its T-line (8ema) from below before backing down. Meanwhile, the DIA remains above its T-line, but close to it, and is printing an indecisive early-session candle. At the same time, QQQ opened up its premarket session higher, testing its 50sma from below, but has faded since then. So, the short-term trend is still bearish and the long-term trend remains bullish, although it is starting to be pushed. As far as extension goes, all of the major index ETFs are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher Thursday on better-than-expected CPI data.  The SPY gapped up 0.54%, DIA gapped up 0.56%, and QQQ gapped up 0.80%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through with a rally to the highs of the day at 10 am.  At that point, the Bears took over and led a slow, protracted selloff that saw the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all recross their opening gap.  This led to a 90-minute bounce and a selloff in the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles (with large upper wicks) in all three major index ETFs.  All three also retested and failed their T-line (8ema) with the QQQ remaining right at its 50sma (testing), while the SPY and DIA are not far above their 50sma and look headed that way.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again but not nearly as strongly) with Basic Materials (-0.35%) and Utilities (-0.30%) leading the losses while Communication Services (+0.55%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.04%, DIA gained 0.17%, and QQQ gained 0.18%.  VXX gained 0.45% to close at 24.80 and T2122 fell a bit but remains in the mid-range at 31.25.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.109% while Oil (WTI) lost 1.80% to close at $82.89 per barrel.  This all took place on average volume across all three major index ETFs.  So, it was a whipsaw day with a gap and a little follow-through to the upside, met with a long steady selloff and then a smaller trip up and down.  In the end, after a lot of travel, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up just above where they started.    

The major economic news reported Thursday included July Year-on-Year CPI, which came in a touch better than expected at +3.2% (compared to a forecast of +3.3% but still worse than the June value of +3.0%).  However, the July Month-on-Month CPI came in exactly as predicted at +0.2% (versus the +0.2% forecast and the +0.2% June reading).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecasted at 248k (compared to a 230k prediction and well above the prior week’s 227k).  Later in the day, the July Federal Budget Balance came in far worse than expected at -$221.0 billion (versus a suspect forecast of -$109.3 billion but slightly better than the June value of -$228.0 billion).  So, markets latched on to the annual CPI number and said it was a beat, gapping higher. However, if you have a more bearish outlook, you saw that it also ticked up versus the June number (and you note July Core Year-on-Year CPI is still +4.7%) and think the Fed still has rate hiking left to do.

In Fed-speak news, San Francisco Fed President Daly told a Yahoo Finance interview (a couple of hours after the CPI release) that it was too early to say whether the Fed has done enough fighting inflation. However, she did seem to hint that there is only one more hike at most in the cards (as other Fed members have implied or said). She said, “Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period — those things are yet to be determined,” Daly went on to say “It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there’s a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting.”

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In stock news, Reuters reports that INTM is exploring options and in talks to potentially sell the business to buyout firm Madison Dearborn Partners for more than $1 billion.  Elsewhere, SPCE again completed a tourist trip to the edge of space, carrying three customers and a company instructor to 55 miles altitude before returning to its New Mexico base.  (This is the second such commercial trip, with the first taking place at the end of June.)   Later, MULN announced it was doing a reverse 1 for 9 stock split overnight.  (This move is part of the company’s effort to remain listed on the Nasdaq exchange.)  At the same time, an F exec told analysts they expect better software added to the company’s highly-profitable commercial truck/van line will boost revenue by $4,000-$5,000 per unit.  (There was no detail on what this new software would do for truck buyers, but it was said to be related to fleet safety, security, insurance, and partial vehicle autonomy.)  Late in the day, UAL canceled some flights into HI and ALK flagged some HI flights for major delays both citing the wildfires on the Maui island.  After the close, ACHR announced it has completed a $215 million equity offering that included STLA, BA, UAL, and ARKK as investors.

In stock legal and regulatory news, Reuters reported that the FTC investigators looking into the KR $24.6 billion acquisition of ACI are focused on how the deal would squeeze small suppliers and small grocery competitors.  Reuters said the FTC is still undecided on whether or not to oppose the deal.  Later, the US 2^nd Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that a shareholder class action suit against GS cannot go forward.  (The suit alleged GS had misled investors about business practices and conflicts of interest prior to the subprime mortgage crisis.)  Elsewhere, penny stock biotech firm AMRS has filed for bankruptcy.  At the same time, the FDA approved a JNJ antibody-based therapy for hard-to-treat blood cancers.  (JNJ is expecting a $300k price for a typical six-month treatment and says around 36,000 people are expected to be diagnosed with the disease this treat during 2023.)  Meanwhile, another politically conservative group is attacking a corporation.  This time K was targeted in a public letter sent to the EEOC, urging the agency to take action against the cereal maker, alleging a workplace diversity program is illegal.  The letter also claimed K cereal packaging during “Pride Month” sexualized its products (although it is unclear why the EEOC would care about that allegation).  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that AMZN will be “shelving” several of its private-label clothing brands as a way to cut expenses while also appeasing FTC antitrust concerns.  The move will impact 27 of AMZN’s 30 in-house clothing divisions.  Later, the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 in favor of HOOD and threw out a proposed class-action lawsuit by meme stock investors who said the broker’s halting of trading meme stocks caused them to lose money.  Late in the day, the NTHSA cited a UAL flight crew for failures that caused a flight to sharply lose altitude shortly after takeoff in December before recovering in HI.  After the close, it was announced that BA and ACHR had settled their mutual lawsuits for undisclosed terms.

After the close, DTEGY, FLO, and PAM reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, NWS and NWSA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ASTL and CANO missed on both the top and bottom lines. It’s worth noting that CANO lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily to the red side.  Japan (+0.84%) was by far the largest gainer of the three green exchanges.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-2.18%), Shanghai (-2.01%), and Hong Kong (-0.90%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape with only two smaller bourses hanging onto green at midday.  The CAC (-0.79%), DAX (-0.48%), and FTSE (-1.12%) are typical and lead the way lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.21% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have backed down very slightly to 4.096% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.40% to $83.16 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Friday includes July PPI month-on-month (8:30 am), Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations (all three at 10 am), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell are limited to ACDVF and SPB.  Then, after the close, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACDVF beat on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, SPB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In consumer debt news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reported its quarterly survey results.  The survey found that US mortgage delinquency rates reached an all-time low in Q2 at 3.37%.  (Of those, 1.61%, unadjusted, fell into the “seriously delinquent” category which was itself a 23-year low.) This (3.37%) was the lowest rate of mortgage loan delinquencies since the group started the survey in 1979.  It was also down 3.64% year-on-year.  The MBA survey cited a strong job market and low-interest rates as the main cause of the low delinquency rate.  However, Moody’s reported that credit card delinquencies hit 7.2% in Q2 (up from 6.5% in Q1).  At the same time, they say auto loan delinquencies hit 7.3% in Q2 versus 6.9% in Q1. So, apparently, not all debt is of the same priority, or perhaps not all studies are equally valid.

In late-breaking news, CNBC reported this morning that OXY (and two start-ups, one of which is backed by MSFT) are set to gain $1.2 billion as part of the Dept. of Energy plan to create giant vacuums to capture and then wells to sequester carbon from the atmosphere.  So far, the underlying “Direct Air Capture” technology has not scaled up enough to make much difference in fighting climate change.  However, the two projects this money will fund are expected to capture more carbon than all 18 projects of the same type that exist now globally…combined.  The project will remove 2 million metric tons of carbon per year, which is the equivalent of the emissions from 500,000 gasoline cars.  These projects will also create 5,000 jobs in TX and LA.  ($3.5 billion in funding for two additional hub projects is expected to be approved next year.)

With that background, it looks like markets are still undecided this morning, perhaps waiting on the PPI number. If you’re a Bull, the good news is that the major US indices are not following the rest of the world lower, at least yet. However, there is no strength being shown in the premarket as all three major index ETFs are giving us small, black-bodied candles with lower wicks. So, we are up off the early session lows but still below the premarket open. DIA remains right at its T-line (8ema), retesting from below again and QQQ is doing the same thing with its 50sma. The difference is that the DIA T-line is falling while the QQQ 50sma is rising. So, the short-term trend remains bearish and the long-term trend remains bullish, although it is starting to be pushed. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. That PPI print may cause some premarket volatility and impact the open. However, it should not be as bad as with the CPI. Finally, it is Friday, Payday. So, take some profits to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday started out flat (up 0.06% in the SPY, down 0.03% in the DIA, and up 0.07% in the QQQ).  At that point, the QQQ sold off hard until 11:30 am while the SPY and DIA just ground sideways until 10:45 am before following the QQQ by selling off hard until noon.  From there all three major index ETFs rallied until 2:40 pm and then all three sold off into the close.  This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three with the SPY printing a Bearish Engulfing candle and the DIA printing a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  The DIA also retested and failed its T-line (8ema) as the QQQ retested its 50sma and closed just on the bottom side of that potential support level.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Technology (-1.43%) by far the biggest loser while Energy (+1.12%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.67%, DIA lost 0.48%, and QQQ lost 1.10%.  The VXX lost 0.88% to close at 24.69 and T2122 rose a bit and remains in the mid-range at 42.35.  10-year bond yields dropped again but remain above 4% at 4.01% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.56% to close at $84.21 per barrel.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume again in all three major index ETFs. So, markets opened just on either side of flat.  However, the tech-heavy QQQ (led by chip names VNDA, AVGO, and MRVL) led the markets lower before the Bulls staged a modest bounce back only to run out of steam.  Again, this felt like a lackluster day of drift, perhaps waiting on the CPI number Thursday. 

The major economic news reported Wednesday was limited to the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which followed the API data from Tuesday night.  EIA showed an unexpected crude inventory build of 5.851 million barrels (compared to a forecasted build of 0.567 million barrels and dramatically higher than the previous week’s drawdown of 17.049 million barrels). 

After the close, APP, CENX, CPA, FLNC, ILMN, JAZZ, LGFA, LGFB, MATV, MFC, NASB, TTD, TTEK, DIS, and WYNN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CACI, CRGY, ENS, and G missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, VSAT and PAAS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CDE, NGL, and UHAL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that TTD, APP, and JAZZ raised their forward guidance.  However, ILMN lowered its forward guidance. 

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In stock news, Reuters reported Wednesday that strong international travel was helping some, but hurting domestic travel companies.  The Air Transport trade group said international travel had reached 90% of the pre-pandemic peak and cruise operators are seeing record demand.  However, a good portion of this foreign travel has come at the expense of domestic travel.  As a result, the average domestic flight ticket is down 8% from the same time in 2022 as airlines compete for passengers.   Elsewhere, the CFO of GM told an investor conference that the company is struggling to produce electric vehicles.  GM had targeted 25,000 of just the Cadillac Lyriq electric SUV this year but had only produced fewer than 2,400 in the first half.  Later, VZ said they will be raising prices again on at least some of its wireless plans.  This follows rival T raising prices in July.  After the close, DIS also announced it will increase the price of its Disney+ service for the second time in less than a year.  This increase will be a whopping 27% (from $10.99 to $13.99).  Finally, in last-minute news, TPR announced it will acquire CPRI for $8.5 billion ($57/share). CPRI shares are soaring in the premarket on the news.

In stock legal and regulatory news, a politically conservative legal group sued TGT (in Florida naturally), alleging that the retailer had misrepresented its risk management system in the wake of conservative cancel culture attacks on LGBTQ merchandise. The suit seeks unspecified damages for the decline in share price which the plaintiff alleges are wholly attributable to the LGBTQ merchandise backlash from conservatives.  Elsewhere, a US federal judge allowed a class action lawsuit against NIO to proceed.  The suit alleges the automaker lied in 2018 about building its own factory in China, which led to a decline in share prices.  Meanwhile, US railroad regulators gave a mixed review of the NSC safety culture following the February derailment (of a train carrying dangerous chemicals) in East Palestine OH.  The review praised NSC for changes made since that derailment but also disclosed it was considering several enforcement actions against the company (which had been focused for years on just meeting the minimum legal safety standards per the report).  The potential actions would be focused on track maintenance, safety inspections, repair practices, and hours of service (employee overwork beyond safe limits).  Late in the day, the FAA announced it has agreed to an industry group request and will extend the deadline until Oct. 28 for meeting the minimum number of flights required at New York City airports (to avoid losing gates and landing slots).  DAL is the primary major airline beneficiary of the change.

In government news, PIED is facing anger and skepticism from NC state officials in relation to its plans to expand lithium mining in order to supply TSLA.  The state is now concerned that the existing mine is already impacting water levels (causing some wells to run dry) in the area as lithium mining is very water-intensive.  At the same time, officials expressed concern over runoff from an expansion.  PIED announced they would be open to adding a new containment pond but did not address water usage.  In the UK, parliament opened an investigation into the country’s approach to migrating from fossil fuel toward electric vehicles.  The study is aimed to identify things the UK government can do to accelerate and support the transition ahead of the already set 2030 and 2035 deadlines.  The report is to be submitted in September.  At midday, Reuters reported that Amtrak and Texas Central Partners are exploring high-speed rail service between Dallas and Houston, seeking government grants to underwrite the project. Elsewhere, President Biden signed an executive order prohibiting US investments inside China covering three sectors.  Those sectors are semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and artificial intelligence technologies.  (Democrats largely praised the order.  However, the Republican response was mixed with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair McCaul praising the move even as others including Senator Rubio called the narrowly-tailored ban “almost laughable.”)  The bans are expected to take effect next year after multiple rounds of public comment. 

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed.  Taiwan (-1.40%) was by far the biggest mover and followed by India (-0.46%) paced the losers.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.84%), Thailand (+0.33%), and Shanghai (+0.31%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning to the green side again at midday.  The CAC (+0.94%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.06%) are typical of the spread but four smaller exchanges in the red in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.49% open, the SPY is implying a +0.52% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.62% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields remain flat at 4.003% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $84.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Thursday includes July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), July Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  Philly Fed President Harker also speaks again at 4:15 pm.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, and WWW.  Then, after the close, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA report..

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In US energy news, US oil production is now projected to reach an average of 12.9 million barrels per day later this year according to the EIA data released Wednesday.  (That is a 16% increase in the last two and a half years and an all-time record output.) This 12.9mbpd value represents a 200k barrel per day increase over the last EIA forecast.  US Oil output is also expected to reach 13.1 million barrels per day in 2024, which will be far in excess of the US record and the world’s second-largest oil producer (Saudi Arabia), which now produces less than 10 million barrels per day according to OPEC (after recent self-imposed 1 million bpd reductions).  The downside (for US gas prices at least) is that domestic oil producers are shipping more oil abroad to take advantage of the higher prices in Europe and Asia.  In addition, US domestic oil usage is also near all-time highs at 20.6 million barrels per day (20.8 million barrels per day is the record, set in 2005). 

So far this morning, BABA, AIT, TAST, DDS, EYE, NVZMY, and RWEOY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HBI, USFD, and YETI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AQN and WWW beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, NVO and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that HBI and WWW lowered forward guidance while YETI raised guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are again looking to gap us higher, but are still giving us inside day-type candles in the premarket (at least ahead of CPI data). DIA is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below this morning in the premarket this morning. However, we should also note that all three major index ETFs are giving us small, black-bodied candles in the early session. (Meaning they are off the highs.) So, there is not a lot of conviction. The short-term trend is bearish and the longer-term trend remains Bullish. However, the DIA is testing its 50sma while the SPY and QQQ are not far above their own. So, even longer-term Bulls have to be nervous. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. That CPI print should cause some premarket volatility and will impact the open. Just be aware.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower at the open Tuesday (down 0.58% in the SPY, down 0.60% in the DIA, and down 0.69% in the QQQ).  This resulted from disappointing international trade data out of China, a surprise windfall profits tax on banks in Italy, and a Moody’s downgrade of 10 US banks (and others put on warning for downgrade). After the open, all three of the major index ETFs followed through until about 11 am.  At that point, the Bulls stepped in and began a slow, steady rally that lasted right into the close.  This action gave us gap-down, white-bodied Hammer candles in the SPY and DIA as well as a gap-down, black-bodied Hammer candle in the QQQ.  Only DIA managed to make it up to its T-line (8ema) closing right up against the underside of that average.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Financial Services (-1.04%) and Technology (-1.02%) leading the way lower while Healthcare (+1.00%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.43%, DIA lost 0.45%, and QQQ lost 0.85%.  The VXX gained 1.76% to 24.91 and T2122 fell but again but remains in the mid-range at 36.13. 10-year bond yields dropped back again but remain above 4% at 4.024% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.05% to close at $82.80 per barrel.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  So, Bears gapped the market lower and had control in the morning.  However, by late-morning the Bulls clocked in and led a slow comeback rally the rest of the day.  Once again, this felt like a news-driven jolt and then a modest drift up on the day.  It felt like the opposite of Monday, with the fall characterized more by a lack of conviction than a true change of direction.

The major economic news reported Tuesday included June Exports, which increased slightly to $247.50 billion (compared to the May value of $247.10 billion).  We also got June Imports, which fell slightly to $313.00 billion (down from the May $316.10 billion).  Together, these gave us a June Trade Balance of -$65.50 billion (a bit below the forecast of -$65.00 billion but better than the May deficit of $68.30 billion).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report gave us an unexpected oil inventory build of 4.067 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a drawdown of 0.233 million barrels and far better than the prior week’s 15.400-million-barrel drawdown.  

In Fed-speak news, Philly Fed President Harker (voter) told an event that barring any abrupt change in the direction of recent economic data, the FOMC may be at a stage where it can leave rates where they are for some time.  Harker said, “Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work,” … “we will need to be there for a while.”  Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a non-voter and dove) again said he does not believe any more hikes will be needed.  At the same time, NY Fed President Williams (voter) was quoted in a New York Times interview to say “I think we’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be.”  (However, he did not go so far as to commit to one more hike or not.) 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, AAPL and SSNLF (Samsung) will both become “anchor investors” in the IPO of chip designer Arm (which is being spun off by current owner SFTBY (Softbank).  Arm is the chip platform that AAPL chose when dropping INTC chips and going with their so-called “AAPL chip” (Arm-based) chips for AAPL computing products.  NVDA and AMZN are also in talks to become anchor investors but neither were announced Tuesday.  Elsewhere, BA deliveries fell in July with the company supplying 43 aircraft (down from 60 in June and compared to Airbus delivering 65).  At the same time, ADT announced it is selling its commercial security business unit to a private equity firm for $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, negotiations are getting contentious in the auto industry as the UAW threw the latest contract offer from STLA in the trash can after the company proposed cutting vacation days, cutting healthcare coverage, cutting 401(k) contributions, and lifting the cap on temporary workers.  (Current UAW contracts with STLA, GM, and F all expire September 14.)  After the close, DIS made an interesting and odd decision. The family-oriented entertainment company’s ESPN unit agreed to launch a sports betting service under the name “ESPN Bet” in partnership with PENN.  (PENN will pay ESPN $1.5 billion in cash and offer $500 million in warrants to purchase PENN shares over a 10-year period.)

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, UK media regulator Ofcom said on Tuesday that it has opened an investigation into SNAP for potentially not doing enough to remove underage users (under 13) from its platform.  At the same time, NVO announced that a large study has found its wildly-popular obesity drug Wegovy has also been shown to have clear cardiovascular benefits.  Elsewhere, US regulators fined nine companies a total of $549 million on Tuesday.  WFC and BNPQY received the largest fines and have agreed to pay penalties for having brokerage employees who used off-record communications tools like WhatsApp.  WFC paid $125 million and BNPQY (BNP Paribas) $35 million to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Other firms hit with fines include among others including BMO, MC, and HLI.  Later, a US federal judge ruled against GOOGL, dismissing the company’s bid to have a privacy lawsuit thrown out.  The $5 billion class action suit alleges GOOGL collected users browsing histories without obtaining user consent and without even explicitly telling users it would do so.  At the same time, LUV announced it will appeal a fringe TX federal judge ruling that said three of the airline’s senior attorneys must attend “religious liberty training” held by a TX conservative Christian legal group.  During the afternoon, the NHTSA announced it has opened an investigation into 1.1 million older STLA Dodge Ram 1500 pickup trucks over power steering loss issues.  Near the close, a judge dismissed ABNB’s lawsuit against New York City for what the company had called a “de facto ban” on short-term rentals (because hosts were required to register with the city).  The judge cited 12,000 complaints the city had received about short-term rentals in a 5-year period preceding the law.  After the close, a US Appeals Court panel of judges in OH rejected an appeal by SBUX, ruling that the company must rehire seven employees fired in Memphis for supporting a union.

After the close, ACCO, AKAM, AMC, ARRY, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DOOR, FG, FNV, GNW, GO, LYFT, OSCR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, and TWLO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, IOSP, LILA, and MODG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EDR, FLT, FNF, TTWO, and TOST beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, DAR, IAC, and JXN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SMCI, TOST, and LYFT raised their forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but leaned toward the green.  South Korea (+1.21%), Malaysia (+0.76%), and Thailand (+0.65%) led the more plentiful gainers while Japan (-0.53%), Shenzhen (-0.53%), and Shanghai (-0.49%) paced the five down exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.17%), DAX (+1.03%), and FTSE (+0.78%) lead the region but the gains are broad-based in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.036% and Oil (WTI) is up another percent to $83.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventory (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, and WEN.  Then, after the close, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous news, President Biden designated almost 1 million acres near the Grand Canyon (AZ) as a national monument Tuesday.  The purported reason was that the lands are sacred to Havasupai and Hopi Native American tribes.  However, the land is also known to hold about one percent of US uranium reserves and this designation will prevent new mining leases on that land, potentially heading off environmental damage to the area.  Elsewhere, Ag analysts expect the US corn crop to be the second-largest on record after rains in July helped a critical growing stage.  The WASDE report comes out on Friday, but the USDA has already increased the percentage of corn cropland rated from good to excellent by four percent.  (Corn prices are down 18% since the end of June.)  Meanwhile, US credit card balances passed $1 trillion in Q2 according to data released by the NY Fed.  This took them to a record $1.03 trillion as Household debt rose 0.1% to $17.06 trillion.

In late-breaking news, China fell into deflation registering a drop in its CPI for the first time in more than two years.  Prices fell 0.3% in China during the month of July while PPI fell for a 10^th consecutive month, contracting 4.4%.  This adds to the pressure on Beijing to add more monetary and fiscal support to its economy.  Elsewhere, US Mortgage demand fell again because interest rates climbed to a 21-year high during the week.  The average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate jumped to 7.09% (up from 6.93% the week prior).  This led to a 3% decline in new purchase loan applications and a 4% decline in refinance mortgage applications.

So far this morning, ATS, CRL, EONGY, GEO, HMC, ICL, PENN, VSH, VWDRY, and WE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Oddly, after beating lowered estimates, WE also warned of possible bankruptcy after going public only in 2021.  They cited the pandemic as hurting the company.)  Meanwhile, ADRNY, NOMD, SONY, and WEN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, VTNR and BCO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BAM and OGE missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that GEO also lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are retesting their T-line (8ema) from below in the premarket this morning and QQQ is not that far below its own. However, we should also note that all three major index ETFs are giving us small, indecisive (Doji-like) candles in the early session. So, there is not a lot of conviction. The short-term trend is bearish and the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have EIA Oil Inventory news scheduled during the day today. So, again, this should be a light news week overall until the CPI print on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap higher at the open.  SPY gapped up 0.40%, DIA gapped up 0.38%, and QQQ gapped up 0.51%.  From there, the DIA meandered sideways until shortly past 10 am, when it began a rally that lasted until 2 pm before modestly selling off the last two hours of the day.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ meandered sideways until 11:30 am before modestly rallying the remainder of the day…even accelerating the last 15 minutes into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY gave us a Bullish Harami that remained below its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, QQQ printed a white-bodied, Hammer, Bullish Harami that also remained below its T-line.  Finally, the DIA gave us a white-bodied, inside day that crossed back above its own T-line.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.00%) and Industrials (+0.95%) leading the way higher while Utilities (+0.03%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.87%, DIA gained 1.13%, and QQQ gained 0.85%.  The VXX dropped 5.23% to 24.48 and T2122 climbed again but remains in the mid-range at 66.67.  10-year bond yields spiked (mostly prior to the open) to 4.101% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.37% to close at $82.51 per barrel.  This all took place on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  So, Bulls gapped the market higher and then modestly drift on up in light volume.  This felt like a drifting day more characterized by a lack of Bears than strength from the Bulls.

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, we did hear from three Fed members.  New York Fed President Williams said “The debate is really about: Do we need to do another rate increase? Or not? … I think we’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be.”  Williams later said “Assuming inflation continues to come down … then if we don’t cut interest rates at some point next year, then real interest rates will go up, and up, and up. And that won’t be consistent with our goals.” However, Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) told an audience “I supported raising the federal funds rate at our July meeting, and I expect that additional increases will likely be needed to lower inflation to the goal.” 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, SHW shut down production at its Garland, TX plant after an explosion and fire.  No damage assessment or timeline for resumption is yet available.  Later, CPB announced it has agreed to buy SOVO for $2.33 billion in cash.  CPB will acquire the Michael Angelo’s and Rao brands from the deal.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that PBR has said it is planning to increase its capital investments by 10% in its new 5-year plan versus the previous one.  The $86 billion 2024-2028 capital expense plan (specific projects) is set to be released before year-end.  At the same time, TOSYY (Toshiba) announced a $14 billion tender offer to take the company private.  The offer will be launched today agreeing to pay $32.44 per share.  Two-thirds of shareholders need to accept the offer for it to take effect.  (TOSYY closed at $16.47 after a 2.5% gain on the news.)  Meanwhile, TSN announced it will close four chicken processing plants (3,000 jobs in AR, IN, and MO) sometime late in 2023 or early 2024.  In the auto industry, STLA threw its hat into the electric vehicle ring saying that it will offer a Fiat brand low-cost ($27,000) EV July 2024.  In the air industry, ERJ announced that the demand for executive jets has not softened and the company still has a two-year backlog of orders.  At the same time, as reported here Monday, PARA announced that KKR has agreed to buy its Simon & Schuster unit for $1.62 billion.  In news that may become legal, PYPL announced Monday that it has launched a US Dollar backed stablecoin to compete with Tether (which has 67% of that market) and USD Coin (which has a 21% share of the market).  (The other US tech firm to try this was META, whose Libra stablecoin was killed by regulators.)

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, the FTC agreed to dismiss its case that had been aimed at blocking the ICE $11.7 billion acquisition of BKI.  This came as both sides remain in negotiation about potential asset sales of the combined entity that would make the FTC more comfortable with the purchase.  Elsewhere, EU antitrust regulators formalized their opposition to the ADBE $20 billion purchase if Figma (a cloud-based design platform), which it said would remove an important rival to ADBE’s Photoshop.  A formal, final decision is now scheduled for December 14.  At the same time, the FDA approved a SAGE and BIIB partnership drug for postpartum depression but rejected it as a treatment for the broader-category “major depressive disorder.”  The market had assumed it would receive approval for the broader condition ($1 billion market) as opposed to the narrow market ($250 – $500 million market).  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that AMZN is preparing for a meeting with the FTC in an effort to head off portions or all of a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against the e-commerce giant.  At the close, a federal judge put a predatory lending (hiding the true cost of borrowing from the borrower) lawsuit brought by the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the NY Attorney General against CACC on hold.  The judge cited the US Supreme hearing a separate case brought by conservatives aimed at ruling the funding of the US CFPB is unconstitutional (and therefore the agency should not exist and should not be allowed to regulate or sue) as the reason.  Finally, after the close, PTRA filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

After the close, BKD, PLUS, JELD, KD, MTW, NNI, PARA, PLTR, PRIM, RNG, SWKS, STRL, TDC, and WMK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CTRA, CAPL, ICUI, KMPR, OKE, and PRI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ACM, AEL, and ARKO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CBT, CE, COMP, IFF, and MRC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ACM, PLUS, PLTR, and STRL all raised their forward guidance.  However, IFF lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but leaned red.  Japan (+0.38%) and Malaysia (+0.36%) were the only two appreciable gainers while Hong Kong (-1.81%), Thailand (-0.92%), and New Zealand (-0.55%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the lone exception of Denmark (+1.81%) the bourses are strongly red at midday.  The CAC (-0.96%), DAX (-1.27%), and FTSE (-0.62%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a strong move lower at the open.  The DIA implies a -0.62% open, the SPY is implying a -0.68% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.75% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are plummeting to 3.984%, and Oil (WTI) is down 1.55% to $80.67 per barrel in early trading.

At least part of the reason for global stock weakness was a fall in China’s July Trade data, which fell more than expected.  The data showed Chinese exports were down 14.5% year-on-year in July while imports were down 12.5% versus July 2022. Meanwhile, in Europe, Italy surprised markets with a new 40% windfall profits tax on banks.  (That one-off tax will figure out to be about 19% of banks’ net profits for the year according to analysts at C.)  On this side of the pond, Moody’s cut the credit rating of 10 US banks and put 11 others on a “negative outlook” overnight.  Those whose credit rating was cut include BK, USB, STT, TFC, CFR, NTRS, MTB, PNFP, BOKF, and WBS.  Among those who saw a downgrade to a “negative outlook” were COF, CFG, and FITB.

The major economics news scheduled for Tuesday includes June Imports, June Exports, and June Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AHCO, ADT, ARMK, ATKR, GOLD, BR, CPRI, CEIX, DDOG, DUK, LLY, ENR, FOXA, GFS, HNI, HZNP, INGR, LCII, LI, NFE, NYT, NXST, NRG, OGN, PRGO, PLTK, RPRX, QSR, SEE, SEAS, STGW, TDG, UAA, UPS, VRTV, WMG, and ZTS.  Then, after the close, AKAM, AMC, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DAR, EDR, FG, FLT, FNF, FNV, GNW, GO, IAC, IOSP, JXN, LILA, LYFT, DOOR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, TTWO, TOST, MODG, and TWLO report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, WEN, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report. On Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous news, BYND posted a 30% revenue decline last night and said there is falling demand for its artificial meat products.  Elsewhere, a trade group representing airlines has asked the FAA to extend the deadline for airlines to fly a minimum number of flights from NYC airports in order to maintain their gates and flight slots.  (Months ago, the FAA had given DAL until September 15 to comply with minimums unless they wanted to lose some NYC-originating routes. The group asked the FAA to extend this through the end of October.)

So far this morning, ALE, ARMK, DDOG, LLY, GFS, LI, OGN, PRGO, RPRX, QSR, TDG, UA, UAA, and ZTS all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATKR, GOLD, BR, INGR, NFE, PLTK, SEE, and UPS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DUK, J, LCII, and NXST beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ADT, ENR, and SEAS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that LI, LLY, and TDG raised forward guidance.  However, UPS and PLTK both lowered their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears woke up in the mood to push this morning. All three major index ETFs are giving us gap-down, black-bodied candles this morning. (Meaning they are near their pre-market lows.) So far, QQQ and DIA are still inside candles, but all three are moving lower as the premarket session moves along. However, at least as of now, none of the three has taken out recent lows. So, they remain in the trading range. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is bearish. However, the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have Trade news scheduled during the day today. In fact, this should be a light news week overall until the CPI print on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened modestly higher Friday, with the SPY gapping up 0.41%, DIA gapping up 0.32%, and QQQ gapping up 0.53%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs gave us a 20-minute rally (follow through) followed by a 20-minute selloff to fade the gap, and then a steady rally that took us to the highs of the day at 12:45 pm.  However, then the Bulls headed out the door and the Bears lead a stronger, steady selloff that drove all the way into the close.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with sizable upper wicks in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  It also produced Bearish Engulfing signals in the SPY and DIA.  All three major index ETFs also retested and failed their T-line during the day as well as falling through a minor support level.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-0.76%) again leading the way lower while Basic Materials (+0.20%) and Communications Services (+0.18%) were the only sectors appreciably in the green.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 0.47%.  The VXX climbed 3.57% to 25.83 and T2122 again climbed toward the center of the mid-range to 48.25.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.042% while Oil (WTI) jumped 1.34% to close at $82.64 per barrel. This happened on slightly above average volume in the QQQ and DIA as well as average volume in the SPY.  So, we ended the week on a fourth-straight down-day in the SPY and QQQ, resulting in the worst week since March.

The major economic news reported Friday included the July Average Hourly Earnings, which came in above expectations at +4.4% year-on-year (compared to a forecast of +4.2% but in line with the June reading of +4.4%).  The July Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month was also a bit above what was anticipated at +0.4% (versus the June +0.3% but again right in line with the June value of +0.4%).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls were reported below the predicted level at +187k (compared to a +200k forecast but just above the June reading of +185k).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also light at +172k (versus a forecast of +179k but well above the June value of +128k). The July Participation Rate remained steady at 62.6% (with the forecast and June reading also being 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment rate that fell to 3.5% (compared to a forecast of 3.6% which was also the June value).  What all of this Payroll data means is that a soft landing seems more likely as job addition is declining but remains positive even as recent data has shown inflation is falling.  Apparently, the Fed has (at least so far) threaded the needle. 

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In stock news, shipping giant Maersk warned Friday, saying there has been a steep decline in demand for global sea shipping containers.  This implies importers and exporters like LOW, WMT, TGT, HD, UL, ADM, QCOM, NKE, PG, etc. could also be suffering significant demand declines.  Elsewhere, GOOGL said Friday that is has unloaded 90% of its position in HOOD, leaving the online ad giant with 612k shares.  At the same time, Reuters reported YELL’s Friday bankruptcy filing is now considering a sale of assets and real estate as part of its reorganization.  Meanwhile, AMZN announced it will dip into the finance market by offering a credit card in Brazil in partnership with MA.  Then, after the close, GM said it will be adding headcount in 2024. Also after the close, AAPL, HPE, and SSGFF all halted shipments to India after PM Modi ordered all imports of electronics to require a license (in order to discourage foreign purchases instead of Indian-manufactured products).

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, AMZN was cited again Friday by the Dept. of Labor OSHA agency for more hazardous conditions including unreasonable worker quotas and improper medical care.  OSHA said it has recommended $15,615 in new penalties (maximum allowed by law) against the AMZN Logan Township, NJ warehouse.  (AMZN has 15 days to pay or appeal the fines.)  Elsewhere, COIN asked a federal judge to throw out the SEC’s lawsuit that accused it of violating securities laws by trading cryptocurrency the SEC classifies as securities.  During the afternoon, the FDA approved the first oral postpartum depression treatment from SAGE and BIIB. (The injectable version required a two-day IV drip.) The condition affects 1 in 8 mothers and could become a major revenue generator based on convenience when the pills hit the US market by year-end.  Meanwhile, after the close, the major banks released the amounts they expect to be charged as part of the “special assessment” to replenish the FDIC deposit insurance fund.  JPM expects $3 billion, WFC projects $1.8 billion, BAC anticipates $1.9 billion, GS expects $400 million, PNC is planning on $468 million, MS expects $270 million, TFC projects $460 million, and C anticipates $1.5 billion.  Finally, the antitrust case against GOOGL brought by the Dept. of Justice and 38 states was narrowed Friday as the judge threw out some claims. This was a significant win for GOOGL, with the case alleging the GOOGL search engine results favor GOOGL and disadvantage competitors like YELP and EXPE heading to trial on September 12.

So far this morning, DK, ELAN, KKR, THS, and VTRS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BRKB and CCO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, HSIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that THS raised its forward guidance.  It is also worth noting that BRKB missed on earnings while still reporting a record quarterly profit.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed in modest trading.  South Korea (-0.85%), Shenzhen (-0.83%), and Shanghai (-0.59%) paced the six losing exchanges.  On the other side, Taiwan (+0.90%), Singapore (+0.53%), and India (+0.41%) led the six gainers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning heavily to the red side at midday.  The CA (-0.48%), DAX (-0.65%), and FTSE (-0.65%) lead the region lower with only Russia (+1.47%) appreciably higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward an open on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are surging higher to 4.107% and Oil (WTI) is down one percent to $82.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Monday is limited to two Fed speakers (Harker at 8:15 am and Bowman at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BRKB, BTNX, CCO, DK, ELAN, HE, HSIC, KKR, THS, TSN, and VTRS.  Then, after the close, ACM, AEL, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, COMP, CTRA, CAPL, PLUS, WTRG, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, KD, MTW, MRC, OKE, PLTR, PARA, PRI, PRIM, RNG, SWKS, and STRL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Imports, June Exports, June Trade Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, we hear from AHCO, ADT, ARMK, ATKR, GOLD, BR, CPRI, CEIX, DDOG, DUK, LLY, ENR, FOXA, GFS, HNI, HZNP, INGR, LCII, LI, NFE, NYT, NXST, NRG, OGN, PRGO, PLTK, RPRX, QSR, SEE, SEAS, STGW, TDG, UAA, UPS, VRTV, WMG, ZTS, AKAM, AMC, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DAR, EDR, FG, FLT, FNF, FNV, GNW, GO, IAC, IOSP, JXN, LILA, LYFT, DOOR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, TTWO, TOST, MODG, and TWLO.  Then Wednesday, BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, WEN, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report. On Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous weekend news, late Friday night META CEO Zuckerberg announced that the new Twitter competitor Threads will have new search and web features within a few weeks.  Then on Saturday, Fed Governor (and voter) Bowman (a hawk) said she expects more rate hikes.  Bowman went on to say, “We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.” Elsewhere Saturday, BRKB released record-breaking Q2 results, which showed a 6.6% increase in earnings (versus Q2 of 2022) to $10.043 billion and a $17 billion increase in cash on hand (to nearly $150 billion).  Again, this was BRKB’s biggest quarterly profit ever.  However, they missed on earnings.  Meanwhile, WFC announced Saturday that its system glitch, which had caused many customers’ direct deposits to not be credited to their accounts, had been fixed and account balances were now corrected.  (The issue had begun Thursday when WFC began getting social media backlash once again.)

With that background, it looks like markets are giving us a gap-up, black-bodied candle in all three major index ETFs this morning. (Meaning they are well off the pre-market highs.) Inside candles for sure, but trying a modest premarket move. The DIA retested (and failed) its T-line in the early session with the other two just hanging out inside Friday’s candle. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is bearish. However, the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to T-line and T2122 is dead-center in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have Fed speakers in terms of scheduled news today. In fact, this should be a light news week until CPI on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, the Bears started off looking for follow-through to Wednesday’s black candle by opening lower (gapping down 0.47% in the SPY, gapping down 0.31% in the DIA, and gapping down 0.66% in the QQQ).  However, the Bulls met the lower open with a slow, meandering rally that lasted until early afternoon when a modest selloff took over and drove into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs with the DIA and SPY both printing Spinning Top candles with a larger upper wick than lower wick.  For its part, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Inverted Hammer-type candle with no lower wick. This happened on less-than-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-2.14%) way, way out in front (by 1.5%) leading the way lower while Energy (+1.02%) held up far better (by almost three-quarters of a percent) than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.29%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ lost 0.16%.  The VXX fell slightly to 24.96 and T2122 climbed toward the center but remains in the lower half of the mid-range at 41.32.  10-year bond yields spiked to 4.187% while Oil (WTI) jumped 2.84% to close at $81.78 per barrel.  So, on Thursday we saw an opening gap follow through by the Bears, a “slow but steady” rebound rally by the Bulls that recrossed that gap, and then a “slow but steady” selloff that took us back down into the gap by the close.  All three major index ETFs remain at minor potential support levels that were tested during the day.

The major economic news reported Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in exactly as predicted at 227k (compared to a forecast of 227k and higher than the prior week’s 221k).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity (quarter-on-quarter) came in much higher than expected at +3.7% (versus a forecast of +2.0% and a Q1 decline of 1.2%).  Meanwhile, the Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Cost was reported much lower than anticipated at +1.6% (compared to a forecast of +2.6% and less than half of the Q1 reading of +3.3%).  Later, the July S&P Global Composite PMI was reported just as predicted at 52.0 (versus a 52.0 forecast and down a bit from the June value of 53.2).  At the same time, the July S&P US Services PMI came in slightly low at 52.3 (compared to a forecast of 52.4 and the June reading of 54.4).  After that, June Factory Orders were a bit better than expected at +2.3% (versus a forecast calling for +2.2% and far above the +0.4% in May).  The July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index came in a bit low at 50.7 (compared to the 51.1 forecast and the June value of 53.1).  Simultaneously, the July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was also light at 52.7 (compared to a 53.0 forecast and a June reading of 53.9).  Finally, after the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed another reduction.  The week ended at $8.207 trillion down $36 billion from the previous week’s $8.243 trillion.

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In stock news, HAS announced plans to sell its eOne film and TV studio to LGF by the end of the year for about $500 million.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that two sources tell it TSLA executives met with India’s Commerce Minister to discuss plans to build a plant in India.  At the same time, MRNA announced a forecast of as much as $4 billion in revenue in 2023 from its COVID-19 vaccine when sales shift from government to private markets and expects further growth in 2024.  Meanwhile, Teamsters began the vote on their tentative deal with UPS.  The 340,000 workers will continue voting until August 22 as union leaders are urging members to accept the deal.  (Local Teamster leaders voted 161-1 to support and “sell” the deal to their union members.)  After the close, JPM announced it is expecting to pay nearly $3 billion to replenish its share of the FDIC insurance deposit fund once FDIC rules are finalized.  Also after the close, NKLA announced it has received enough shareholder support to allow it to increase the number of shares it can issue to raise much-needed capital.  At the same time, Reuters reported that KKR is in advanced talks to buy Simon & Schuster from PARA for $1.65 billion.

In stock legal, REGN told Reuters it expects an approval decision from the FDA during Q3 related to a higher-dose version of its blockbuster Eylea drug.  This comes after the FDA has completed an inspection of REGN’s contract manufacturer (CTLT) for the new dosage.  Elsewhere, securities regulators in MA have opened an investigation into major financial firms using AI technology in interactions with customers.  The investigation will include JPM and MS.  Later, TEVA announced it has agreed to pay US hospitals $126 million (over 18 years) to settle claims that marketing of its opioid drugs raised the operating costs of hospitals.  The agreement also includes TEVA supplying another $49 million of the overdose drug naloxone.  At the same time, HYMLF (Hyundai) and KIMTF (Kia) recalled 91,000 2023-2024 cars over a fire risk.  Simultaneously, a panel of US judges denied GOOGL’s request to pause a TX antitrust lawsuit against the online ad giant.  This came after TX got the case transferred back from NY to a TX court known as “the rocket docket.”

After the close, ABNB, AMZN, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, ATSG, TEAM, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, COIN, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, GEN, ICFI, LNT, MTZ, MODV, MSI, OPEN, PBA, POST, RKT, RYAN, SYK, and VTR all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, AL, BGS, BIO, ED, CTVA, FND, FTNT, MCHP, MNST, ZEUS, and SWN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AES, AGL, EXPI, GDDY, GILD, OTEX, TPC, and RBA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, COLD, REZI, RMD, and WERN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB, COLD, DVA, DKNG, DBX, MODV, MSI, and POST all raised their forward guidance.  However, AMN, MTZ, and OPEN all lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned toward the green side on modest moves.  India (+0.70%), Shenzhen (+0.67%), and Hong Kong (+0.61%) paced the gainers while Singapore (-0.35%), Taiwan (-0.21%), and South Korea (-0.10%) were the only losers in the region.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are more mixed with eight markets in the red and seven in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (-0.30%), and FTSE (-0.30%) lead on volume while Russia (+1.34%) is the only exchange to move more than a percent in either direction in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a flat open, the SPY is implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.188% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.28% to $81.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Friday includes July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO. There are no reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, AMRX, CNK, CRARY, CRBG, ENB, FLR, FYBR, GTN, KUBTY, MGA, OMI, PNM, QRTEB, and WPP all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EVGR, LYB, QRTEA, TIXT, and XPO reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, Unfortunately, ADV, BEP, PNM, and TU missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GTN also lowered its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Thursday that S&P 500 companies may be tipping their hand on economic prospects.  Their data shows that major companies have increased capital expenditures (expansion) by 15% in Q2 while buyback program spend is down.  Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia announced it is extending its 1 million barrel per day oil production cut again, this time through the end of September.  Finally, it is worth expanding on the two big reports from Thursday night.  AMZN blew past analyst expectations reporting double-digit growth and gave rosy guidance.  Meanwhile, AAPL beat analyst expectations but reported sales that were down one percent year-over-year.  The company’s main product (iPhones) revenues are down from even earlier in the year (a third consecutive decline) while predicting similar results for the current quarter.

With that background, it looks like markets are trying a modest premarket move. However, the candles of all three major index ETFs are black-bodied, indicating we have fallen down off the premarket highs. All three may try to retest their T-line (8ema) from below today with DIA doing so now. Once again the large-cap indices (SPY and DIA) are also testing a support level. (QQQ’s premarket move higher has it up away from its support level.) As far as extension goes, all of them are close to T-line and T2122 is in the mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. Don’t forget we get July Payrolls data before the opening bell. So volatility remains likely. Also, keep in mind that it’s Friday, Payday. So, take some money off the table to pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears finally had their day thanks to the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating.  The SPY gapped down 0.84%, DIA gapped 0.46% lower, and QQQ gapped down 1.19%.  After that open, the Bears followed through until noon in all three major index ETFs.  At that point, SPY and QQQ meandered sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA sold off very slightly from noon for the rest of the day. However, all three major index ETFs did bounce up off the lows in the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us gap-down, large black-bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down black-bodied Spinning Top-type candle. All three also closed below their T-line (8ema).

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.81%) way out in front (by almost a percent) leading the way lower while Consumer Defensive (-0.06%) was barely in the red and held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 1.39%, DIA lost 0.97%, and QQQ lost 2.19%.  The VXX shot higher by more than 9% on the day to 25.02 and T2122 dropped but remains in the mid-range at 37.02.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.082% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.98% to close at $79.76 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday we saw the first significant Bearish move in a long time.  (First in four weeks in the DIA.)  However, there was no major technical damage done.  It was definitely a Bearish day but unless there is follow-through, support has not been taken out.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included the July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in well above expectations at +324k (compared to a forecast of +189k but also far less than the previous level, which was +497k but was revised down to +455k).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger than expected drawdown of 17.049 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.367-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 0.600-million-barrel draw).  Elsewhere, there was also a parade of people from government and business who called the Fitch rating reduction either mistimed at best to flat wrong.  These included Treasury Sec. Yellen who said the decision was “arbitrary and based on outdated data,” and former Treasury Sec. Summers (who is a fiscal hawk and opponent of recent Fed/Treasury actions) called the move “absurd … If anything, the data in the last couple of months has been that the economy is stronger than what people thought, which is good for the creditworthiness of US debt.”  It also included many across the business world, such as JPM’s CEO Dimon who called the decision “ridiculous” but also said “it doesn’t really matter.” Others have commented that there have been no changes since the GOP Congress held the US debt ceiling hostage. (Implying the idea of doing it now when you didn’t do it in June is suspect.)  Still, Fitch did it Tuesday night.  (Personally, I think Fitch waited on, or at least took advantage of, the widely expected Trump Jan. 6 indictment to slip in the rating cut with less media attention.  Not that it helped much.)  Regardless, it is what it is, the US is still the largest economy and safest debt in the world, and we move on.

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In stock news, AAL said Wednesday they have begun talks with both BA and EADSY (Airbus) over a potential order for at least 100 new narrow-body jets.  (Bloomberg reported the order could end up over 200 jets over the next seven years.)  Later, GM and EVGO celebrated the opening of the 1,000^th fast-charging station installed by their collaboration project.  (The first was installed in 2020 and their goal is 3,250 in major metro areas.)  Elsewhere, TSLA has begun leasing office space in India, increasing the speculation the EV-maker will enter the Indian car market after CEO Musk recently had talks with Indian PM Modi.  At the same time, XPEV (Chinese electric carmaker and direct TSLA competitor) shares fell when it was announced its VP of Autonomous Driving had resigned.  Meanwhile, NTR (the world’s largest fertilizer producer) announced it has indefinitely paused plans to ramp up production and has halted work on a new “clean ammonia” project in LA. The announcement cited falling prices and, specifically, the resumption of exports of potash from Belarus (which had been blocked from exports by now-expired sanctions for supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine).  Later, CHK reported that it expects the cost to service oilfields to fall 5%-7% in 2024 due to falling demand causing prices to be lowered.  (This roughly matches FANG’s similar expectation for reduced costs next year, reported last week.)

In stock legal, government, and regulatory news, GSK filed suit against PFE in US federal court on Wednesday alleging that PFE’s “RSV vaccine” violates four of GSK’s patents.  Elsewhere, the UK antitrust regulator announced Wednesday that it is opening an investigation of the CCJ and BEP’s $7.9 billion acquisition of BAM’s (Westinghouse parent) nuclear power plant equipment maker.  Meanwhile, plaintiffs against JNJ have urged a US judge to ban more bankruptcy claims by JNJ for at least six months.  This comes after the same judge denied JNJ’s second attempt in the prior six months to file for bankruptcy of its LTL subsidiary (onto which it had transferred all talc liability).  At the same time, the US Labor Board ruled in a 3-1 decision that business work rules may not interfere with employees’ rights to join unions.  This ruling came against SRCL but now applies broadly.  (The ruling prohibits rules against discussing work conditions, distributing union literature, and prohibiting social media posts by employees.)

After the close, ATUS, AEE, ANSS, APA, BTG, CCRN, CPE, CIVI, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CYH, CW, ETSY, EVH, GXO, HLF, HUBS, KGC, MKL, MCK, MELI, MGM, MKSI, MOD, NCR, NE, PYPL, QRVO, O, HOOD, SIGI, SHOP, SPNT, SNEX, TS, WCN, WTS, and Z all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ALB, DOX, BKH, CHRW, CENT, CF, CAKE, CODI, HI, NGVT, LESL, LNC, MRO, MET, PK, CNXN, PSA, QCOM, SM, RUN, WMB and WSC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AFG, CHRD, DASH, NTR, SPG, SBGI, TRIP, and ZG all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ATO, ET, FMC, GT, VAC, OXY, PR, PTVE, UFPI, and UGI missed on both the opt and bottom lines. It is worth noting that ALB, HUBS, QRVO, and SHOP raised their forward guidance.  However, CCRN, NGVT, VAC, and NTR reduced their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily to the red side again.  Only Shanghai (+0.58%) and Shenzhen (+0.53%) were in the green while Taiwan (-1.85%), Japan (-1.68%), and Thailand (-1.37%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar story starting to take shape at midday.  Only Russia (+0.85%) and three smaller bourses are in the green while the CAC (-0.81%), DAX (-0.78%), and FTSE (-0.85%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.25% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking to 4.145% and Oil (WTI) is off one-tenth of a percent to $79.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all three at 8:30 am), July S&P Global Composite PMI and July S&P US Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), June Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (all three at 10 am), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include GOLF, WMS, APD, BUD, APG, APO, APTV, ARW, BALY, BHC, BCE, BDX, BV, BIP, BRKR, CNQ, FUN, CQP, LNG, CI, CLVT, COMM, COP, CEG, CMI, DQ, DLX, DNB, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, EXPE, FCNCA, FOCS, HAS, DINO, HGV, HII, H, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, K, MMP, MDU, MIDD, MUR, NJR, ONEW, PZZA, PH, PBF, PNW, PBI, PRVA, PWR, REGN, SABR, SBH, SNDR, SRE, FOUR, SO, SAVE, STWD, TRGP, TGNA, TFX, TPX, TKR, BLD, TRMB, VC, VMC, WBD, W, WCC, WLK, and WRK.  Then, after the close, AES, AGL, AL, ATSG, ABNB, LNT, AMZN, COLD, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BGS, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, ED, CTVA, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, EXPI, FND, FTNT, GEN, GILD, GDDY, ICFI, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, PBA, PBR, POST, RMD, RBA, RKT, RYAN, SWN, SYK, TPC, VTR, and WERN report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, we hear from ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO report.

In miscellaneous news, the relevant international standards body proposed its first set of rules for auditing company climate-related disclosures. (The new rules are intended to help auditors give investors reports free of “greenwashing” distortions.)  Elsewhere, after the close, Fitch followed up its US long-term treasury downgrade by also reducing FNMA and Freddie Mac credit ratings.  Just like US bonds, they lowered both ratings from AAA to AA+.  (FNMA and Freddie Mac guarantee roughly 70% of US mortgages.) Meanwhile, in what is hopefully a sign, although the Bud Light boycott by outraged conservatives hurt sales of that brand, the company (BUD) beat on earnings and posted 6.4% revenue growth quarter-on-quarter as well as 2.2% revenue growth from the same quarter last year. The company did miss its previous revenue forecast for the quarter but only by 1.7%. So, hopefully, this shows folks that cancel culture, and culture wars in general, are bad and ineffective ideas. (Can’t we all just get along man? lol)

So far this morning, GOLF, ADDYY, WMS, APG, APTV, BDX, BRKR, CI, CEG, DLX, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, FCNCA, GEL, DINO, IRM, ITT, MIDD, MUR, NTDOY, REGN, SCMWY, TFX, BLD, and TRMB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AHEXY, APD, BUD, BALL, BV, FUN, CLVT, PBF, PRVA, SBH, and WRK missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BCE, HAS, HII, PWR, and VC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BALY, COMM, COP, DQ, ONEW, SAVE, TKR, WBD, and WLK all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that APTV and WIX have raised their forward guidance.  However, ENTG and WCC have both lowered guidance.  

With that background, it looks like again we are trying to open a bit lower. Prices have recovered from the premarket lows to some extent, but we have also now come down off premarket highs. The bears will be looking to get follow through to their best candle in weeks as a premarket struggle at potential support is underway in all three major index ETFs. As far as extension goes, none of them are too far away from their 8ema (T-line) yet and the T2122 indicator is still in the mid-range. So, both sides of the market still have room to run if they can muster the momentum to do so. Also, keep in mind that despite yesterday’s candle, we were due for a pullback and the Bullish trend has not been broken yet. We do have some economic news both this morning and during the day, as well as Trump gets arraigned this afternoon (his last arraignment was a non-event for markets but generated plenty of news coverage). Any of those could potentially give the market a push one way or the other. Plus, remember the heavy earnings schedule, including AAPL and AMZN after the close…and we also get July Payrolls data on Friday. So, be ready for some volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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