Thursday was a profit-taking day in the markets.  After, good CPI data, SPY opened +0.02%, DIA opened +0.09%, and QQQ opened +0.06%.  However, at that point we saw divergence with the broader SPY and QQQ selling off briskly before bobbling near the lows to close out the say.  Meanwhile, DIA rallied and sold off and meandered sideways in positive territory the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-body Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  QQQ also crossed back below its T-line (8ema) for the first time in nine days.  (SPY did print another all-time high, but not all-time high close.)  At the same time, DIA printed a modest gap-up, large-legged Doji.  This happened on above-average volume in QQQ and DIA, as well as modestly below-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.07%) out in front leading almost all of the rest of the sectors higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (-1.34%) was by far (by more than 1.80%) the weakest sector as we may have seen some rotation out of the big dog tech names that have led the market for a long, long time. At the same time, SPY lost 0.86%, DIA gained 0.09%, and QQQ lost 2.19%. VXX gained a little most than half a percent to close at a still extremely low at 10.34.  T2122 spiked for the second-straight day into extreme overbought territory at 97.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields were down again to 4.207% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.08% to close at $83.00 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a major profit-taking day or rotation on good CPI news.  (Perhaps traders think the CPI data foreshadows a rate cut and/or change in economic cycle position.)  Regardless of the cause, all 10 of the big dog names were down more than 1% for the day, led by TSLA (-8.44%), NVDA (-5.57%), and META (-4.11%).

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included June Core CPI (month-on-month), which fell and was below expectations at +0.1% (compared to a forecast and May reading of +0.2%).  On a Year-on-Year basis, June Core CPI was also down at +3.3% (versus a forecast and May value of +3.4%).  On the headline number, June CPI (month-on-month) actually fell and was below predictions at -0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.1% and a May reading of 0.0%).  On the Year-on-Year basis, June CPI was also down and below what was anticipated at +3.0% (versus a +3.1% forecast and a May +3.3% number).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were notably down at 222k (compared to a 236k forecast and a 239k previous week reading).  For the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, number was also down at 1,852k (versus a 1,860k forecast and the prior week’s 1,856k value).  Later, the June Federal Budget Balance was a bit better than expected at -$66.0 billion (compared to a forecast of -$71.2 billion and drastically down from May’s -$347.0 billion).  Then, after the close, the Weekly Fed Balance Sheet showed a modest increase of $2 billion at $7.224 trillion (versus the prior week $7.222 trillion).

In economic speak news, on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President said that the recent better inflation data area relief.  She said, “With the information we have received today, which includes data on employment, inflation, GDP growth, and the outlook for the economy, I see it as likely that policy adjustments, some policy adjustments, will be warranted.”  At the same time, St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that Thursday/s CPI data was encouraging.  He said, “The June Consumer Price Index points to encouraging further progress toward lower inflation.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told a group interview, “My view is, this is what the path to 2% looks like.”  He also indicated yesterday’s report was “excellent news” that indicate the stronger than expected May CPI data was just “a bump in the road.”  He went on to say, “The reason to be as restrictive as that and the reason to tighten in real terms would be if you thought the economy was overheating. This is not in my view what an overheating economy looks like.”

In stock news, on Thursday, MSTR announced it will undergo a 10-for-1 split for the holders of record on August 1.  Later, PFE announced it will move ahead with a pill form of its GLP-1 weight loss drug.  This comes after a 20-person study showed concerns over side effects from the pills.  At the same time, RTX was awarded a $1.2 billion contract to provide additional Patriot missile systems to Germany.  Later, QS said it has signed a strategic partnership with VLKAF (Volkswagen) to develop new battery technologies.  (QS closed up 30.50% on the day on this news.)  At the same time, BCSF announced it will buy ENV for $4.5 billion.  Later, IBATF announced it has become the first company to commercialize a lithium extraction technology, selling a license to its filtration technology to private miner US Magnesium.  (Beating RIO and SLI to this milestone.)   At the same time, GM announced plants to invest $900 million to retool an MI plant to build electric vehicles.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that TSLA will delay the launch of its robotaxis until October.  (This was yet another delay from the previously announced August 8 unveiling.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the EU antitrust regulator said AAPL has agreed to open its “tap-and-go” payments system to rivals in order to avoid sanctions under one of three ongoing EU antitrust investigations of the company.  This came even as the head of the agency said “so far is that we have not seen a change in behavior on Apple’s side when it comes to our preliminary findings.”  Later, the Dept. of Energy awarded GM and STLA nearly $1.1 billion in grants to build electric vehicles and components.  Meanwhile, CVX and HES announced they expect the FTC to review their proposed merger in Q3.  (This announcement came after Bloomberg reported the FTC would delay its decision on the merger until Q4.)  At the same time, the EPA and Dept. of Justice announced MRO had agreed to a $241 million settlement (including a $64 million fine) for violations of the Clean Air Act.  Later, DG agreed to pay a $12 million penalty to the Dept. of Labor for alleged safety violations.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Hong Kong (+2.59%) was by far the biggest gainer.  Meanwhile, Japan (-2.45%) and Taiwan (-1.94%) were by far the biggest losers, following Thursday’s US Tech selloff.  In Europe, we see mostly green at midday.  The CAC (+0.69%), DAX (+0.41%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up a bit to 4.217% and Oil (WTI) is up almost another percent to $83.37 per barrel on hopes for economic stimulus from the Fed.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include June Core PPI and June PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  The major earnings reports before the open include BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC. However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

In miscellaneous news, following Thursday’s CPI data, the CME Fedwatch tool shows that 8.8% of fed fund futures trades expect a rate cut at the July 31 meeting, but 91.2% expect no cut.  However, for the September 18 meeting, Fed Fund futures indicate a 92.7% probability of a rate cut.  Elsewhere, more than 1.2 million residences and businesses remain without power in South TX following hurricane Beryl and officials said 500k will remain without power into next week.  Finally, the EU said early Friday that Elon Musk’s former Twitter deceives users and breaches EU online content rules.  If confirmed, X (Twitter) could face a fine up to 6% of global annual turnover.

So far this morning, BK, JPM, and WFC all reported beats (easily) on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FAST missed slightly on revenue while coming in in-line of earnings.  On the other side, ERIC beat easily on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  (C reports at 8 a.m.)

With that background, it looks as if markets have all moved modestly, but indecisively bullish in the premarket. SPY and DIA are printing Doji in the early session while QQQ has put in a white-body candle that recovered from a premarket opening gap lower. The SPY and DIA remain above their T-line (8ema) while QQQ seems just about ready to retest its own T-line from below this morning. So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish despite yesterday’s big black candle. In terms of extension, DIA is now the only one of the three major index ETFs stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the top end of its overbought range. Therefore, oddly after yesterday’s candle, the market may be in need of more rest or a pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are split 50-50 this morning with 5 in the green and 5 in the red. META (-1.76%) is the biggest mover while TSLA (-0.91%) has traded the most dollar volume in the early session. NVDA (+0.49%) is just behind TSLA in dollar-volume this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was a bullish freight train and the Bears were tied to the track.  The SPY gapped up 0.23%, DIA opened flat, and QQQ gapped up 0.42%.  From there, all three major index ETFs ground sideways in a very tight range for 90 minutes.  However, then the fuse was lit and all three rallied steadily for the rest of the day.  They all went parabolic the last half hour with only five minutes of profit taking at the end keeping all three from ending on their highs.  This action gave us large white-bodied candles with smaller wicks on both ends across the board.  SPY and QQQ once again printed new all-time highs and gave us new all-time high closes (the 37^th of the year).  Meanwhile, after a successful retest of its T-line (8ema) the DIA rallied to break out of its trading range dating back to May and closed less than a percent from its own all-time high.  This happened on below average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as above-average volume in DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.51%) way out front leading the rest of the market higher.  Even the laggards, Consumer Cyclicals (+0.61%), Energy (+0.62%), and Consumer Defensive (+0.64%) were up significantly.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.99%, DIA gained 1.08%, and QQQ gained 1.04%.  VXX fell just a tad and remains extremely low at 10.27.  Meanwhile, T2122 spiked up to the top half of its mid-range at 69.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields were down a bit to 4.281% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.24% to close at $82.42 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a bullish day in a strong bullish trend.  SPY and QQQ have closed at a new all-time high close each of the last five sessions, led by the Tech Big Dogs like NVDA (+2.70%), AMD (+3.87%), and AAPL (+1.88%).  In fact, the only one of the 10 Tech Big Dogs that was down was NFLX (-1.18%) and it only traded $1.8 billion in stock on the day.  So, if traders were waiting on CPI data…they have a funny way of showing it.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday were limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which showed a much larger drawdown than expected at -3.443 million barrels (compared to a forecasted build of 0.700-million-barrels but far less than the prior week’s -12.157 million barrels).

In economic speak news, on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell testified again, this time in front of the House.  Powell said the Fed does not need to reach the 2% target figure prior to cutting rates. In addition, he said the Fed will cut rates “when and as needed,” regardless of the election.  Powell said, “Our undertaking is to make decisions when and as they need to be made, based on the data, the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks, and not in consideration of other factors, and that would include political factors.”  (For the second day in a row, GOP lawmakers pressed (begged?) Powell not to announce any rate cuts until after the November 5 election.)  When asked about the path of inflation, Powell indicated he did have some confidence that inflation is headed back below 2%.  However, when asked if the bar for a rate cut had been cleared, Powell said “”I am not ready to say that yet.”  He continued, “There is a path to getting back to full price stability while keeping the unemployment rate low, … We’re on it. We’re very focused on staying on that path.”

After the close, PSMT and WDFC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. 

In stock news, on Wednesday, WBD announced its CNN unit will cut 100 jobs (2.8% of its workforce) and also launch a new CNN.com subscription service later this year.  At the same time, INTU announced plans to layoff 1,800 employees (10% of workforce) in cost-cutting moves, citing that AI is transforming the company.  Later, HON announced they have signed a deal to buy APD’s LNG pretreatment unit for $1.81 billion.  At the same time, AMD announced they have agreed to buy Silo AI (private) for $665 million.  Later, TLSA raised the prices of its Model 3 in Europe by about $1.622 after the EU imposed tariffs on EVs made in China.  (The Model 3 is made in China.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that GOOGL has walked away from its pursuit of purchasing HUBS.  Later, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is expecting 10% growth in iPhone sales compared to 2023 according to internal sources it cited.  (However, 2023 was a down year for iPhone shipments.)   At the same time, the Athletic reported that AMZN. CMCSA, and DIS have finalized a $76 billion deal to broadcast NBA basketball games for 11 seasons.  (However, the report said current NBA partner WBD still has the option to match the deal.)  After the close, COST announced it will hike membership fees starting in the fall.  Elsewhere, MSFT announced it will drop its “observer seat” on the OpenAI board to head off antitrust inquiries in the US and UK. AAPL followed MSFT’s lead giving up its own newly-acquired “board observer” seat.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 332k 2017-2025 Alfa Romeo, Jeep, and Fiat vehicles in the US over faulty seatbelt sensors. At the same time, the same agency announced BMWYY was recalling 394k vehicles in the US due to faulty airbag inflators.  Later, HE stock spiked on a report saying that a “massive settlement” related to the Maui wildfires could be unveiled as soon as next week.  No other details were released, but 451 lawsuits (covering 1,800 individual plaintiffs as well as 425 business entity plaintiffs) related to those wildfires are in the courts now.  At the same time, MSFT completed a $21.7 million deal to settle cloud licensing practices to avoid EU antitrust action.  (The deal was with the main complainant to the EU about those practices.)  GOOGL announced it will explore other options to fight MSFT cloud licensing practices after the settlement.  Later, JBLU asked the Dept. of Transportation to disqualify the UAL proposal from winning one of the five new round-trip flight slots up for bid from Washington Reagan airport. 

Elsewhere, a federal judge in CA dismissed most of the FCBN $1 billion lawsuit against HSBC for “poaching” 40 employees after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March of 2023.  Later, the CEO of BA was hauled before the NTSB and forced to apologize for violating its NTSB rules.  After the apology, the BA CEO refused other comment.  At the same time, NSC agreed to implement the series of safety recommendations made by the NTSB following the February 2023 train derailment in East Palestine OH.  Later, the FTC announced plans to sue UNH, ESRX, and CVS over their negotiating practices (collusion) on drugs including insulin following a two-year investigation.  After the close, the former CEO of WORX was convicted of securities fraud related to statements about the company becoming the major supplier of rapid COVID-19 tests, despite knowing the claims were untrue.  At the same time, the Fed and Office of the Comptroller fined C $136 million after the bank was found to have made insufficient progress addressing data management issues.  (The bank was fined $400 million in 2020 for the same deficiencies.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only India (-0.03%) was below break-even.  Meanwhile Hong Kong (+2.06%), Shenzhen (+1.99%), and Taiwan (+1.60%) led broad and strong gains in the region.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday with only Denmark (-0.03%) on the red side of flat.  However, the CAC (+0.32%), DAX (+0.19%), and FTSE (+0.22%) lead modest gains ahead of US data.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just below Wednesday’s close.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and QQQ implies a -0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up slightly to 4.281% and Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $82.35 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include June Core CPI, June CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 a.m.), June Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.) and Weekly Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks at 11:30 a.m. Earnings season begins again Thursday as Thursday, CAG, DAL, and PEP report before the open.  However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, June Core PPI, June PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Friday, BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, DAL beat on revenue while missing on earnings by a penny.  On the other side, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if markets are slightly, but undecidedly bearish in the premarket. All three major index ETFs started the early session flat, but have put in small, black-bodied candles since then. Still, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched above its T-line and SPY is also pushing its extension. The T2122 indicator is back up above the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. (We are in need of rest or pullback in the QQQ and SPY.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red early this morning on modest moves. However, the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.36%) is also the best performer of that group on price move and volume.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market started out higher again Tuesday.  SPY gapped up 0.17%, DIA opened just on the red side of flat, down 0.05%, and QQQ gapped up 0.30%.  Fron there SPY ground sideways in a tight range all day.  Meanwhile, QQQ traveled sideways for 45 minutes and then sold off slowly until 1:30 p.m., having crossed the gap in the process and then traded along the previous close level.  Finally, DIA was most volatile, selling off half a percent in the first hour, then rallying 0.90% between 10:30 am and 1 p.m., and selling back off 0.60% in the afternoon.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ gave us gap-up, black-body Spinning Top type candles.  Both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.  However, DIA printed a black-bodied Doji type that retested (and passed the tests) both of its 17ema and T-line (8ema).  This happened on well-below average volume in the SPY, just-below average volume in the QQQ, and just-above average volume in the DIA.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Energy (-0.88%), Basic Materials (-0.68%), and Industrials (-0.66%) leading the way lower. On the other side, Financial Services (+0.51%) was by far the strongest sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.10%, DIA lost 0.00%, and QQQ gained 0.09%.  VXX gained just a tad, but it remains extremely low at 10.30 and T2122 fell down to just the edge of its oversold territory at 19.41.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields was up a bit t0 4.297% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.63% to close at $81.81 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was another “much ado about nothing” day where the Bulls took SPY and QQQ to new all-time highs and all-time high close.  Meanwhile, the Bears were unable to push the DIA lower.  In the end, all three ended up little changed.  It looks as if traders may be waiting on the CPI data on Thursday.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday were limited to the EAI Short-Term Energy Outlook, which forecasts record electric use in the US in 2024 and again in 2025.  The EIA projects the percentage generated from natural gas to remain at 42%, while coal-based production continues to fall to 15% this year and 14% in 2025.  On the oil front, EIA expects global oil demand to outstrip production by 0.900 million barrels per day in 2025.  (Current OPEC+ production cuts are just about 6 million barrels per day.  So, this could flip, if OPEC+ decides to discontinue their self-imposed restrictions.)  US oil production is the largest in the world (13.25 million bpd) and will grow by 320k bpd in 2024 as well as climbing again in 2025.  However, US natural gas production will decline in 2024 to 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (from a record 103.8 bcfd in 2023) as producers try to prop up prices.  In addition, Natgas demand will grow from a record 89.1 bcfpd in 2023 to 89.4 bcfpd in 2024 before easing to 89.2 bcfpd in 2025.  Later, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a drawdown that was larger than expected at -1.923 million barrels (compared to a -0.250-million-barrel forecast but far less than the prior week’s -9.163 million barrels).

In economic speak news, on Tuesday, FOMC Vice Chair for Bank Supervision Barr said that the Fed is considering a rule change that could save the US’s eight largest banks billions of dollars in freed-up capital.  (The bank is considering caving to global bank demands of a looser calculation of the capital they must keep on hand.  Those banks held $230 billion in capital on hand in Q1 to offset systemic risks. The change could free up a half percent of capital at each bank, which can then be plowed into lending or trading operations…at the cost of slightly less cushion in the event of a crisis.)   The banks affected include JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS, MS, BNY, and STT.  Later, Fed Chair Powell told Congress the US economy was no longer overheated. He continued, “We are well aware that we now face two-sided risks, … The labor market appears to be fully back in balance.”  Powell said that he did not want to be seen to be sending any signals about the timing of future policy changes.  This came in response to GOP Senator Cramer saying any move to lower rates prior to the election would be bad.  However, Powell’s headline comment was that keeping rates too high for too long could jeopardize growth.  He said, “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”  He concluded by saying that more good inflation data would strengthen the case for a rate cut.  At the same time Powell was testifying before the Senate, Treasury Sec. Yellen told a House Committee that the economy has made “tremendous progress” toward reducing inflation.  She said, “I believe that it (inflation) will continue to come down over time. (However,) Rents and housing costs continue to leave it higher than we would ideally like.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, BA announced its plane deliveries fell 27% year-on-year in June.  However, BA said the 44 jets delivered was the highest number it has delivered in any month so far in 2024.  Later, a study published in JAMA showed that the LLY weight loss drug Mounjaro/Zepbound provides faster and greater weight reduction than competitor NVO’s Ozempic/Wegovy drugs.  (Both drugs are in the same class, but used different active ingredients.)  NVO stock fell 1.85% on the news while LLY gained 1.58%.  At the same time, Reuters reported that ORCL ended talks on a $10 billion deal to provide Elon Musk’s xAI startup with servers.  (This was a potential expansion of the existing deal where ORCL provides xAI cloud services access to NVDA AI chips.)  After the close, IDC (research firm in tech space) announced that global PC shipments rose by 3% in Q2.  This was the second-straight quarter of increase after two years of decline.  According to IDC data, AAPL computer shipments jumped 20.8% on new product releases compared to Q2 of 2023.  Meanwhile, while on the real PC side (about 85%-90% of the market) Taiwan-based Acer led the gains at 13.7% while DELL saw a 2.4% decline.  Finally, PATH announced it will lay off 10% its workforce (420 jobs) in a restructuring.  PATH stock fell 7% on the news.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced a $20 million fine of FITB for allegedly opening fake customer accounts and forcing customers to buy auto insurance even though they already had coverage.  At the same time, the NHTSA opened a recall inquiry into 94k STLA Jeep hybrid SUVs over the loss of power while in operation.  (STLA had a recall over the same issue with all-electric Jeep Wranglers in 2022.)  Meanwhile, the NHTSA also announced the LCID is recalling 5,200 of its 2022-2023 Air luxury sedans over a software issue that could cause the same problem as STLA Jeeps face.  Later, the state of MI reduced the incentive package (by almost $600 million) that F will receive for its battery plant in Marshall after the company announced expected production cuts.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned to the green side on modest trading with seven of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  Thailand (+0.99%), New Zealand (+0.80%), and Japan (+0.61%) led the region modestly higher on the day.  In Europe, with the lone exception of Greece (-0.51%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.55%), DAX (+0.50%), and FTSE (+0.58%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mostly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a flat open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have fallen to 4.273% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.27% to $81.21 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday are limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.  However, Fed Chair Powell testifies again (10 a.m.) and Fed Governor Bowman speaks again at 2:30 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports set for before the open.  Nevertheless, after the close, PSMT and WDFC report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get June Core CPI, June CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and June Federal Budget Balance.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PPI, June PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Thursday, earnings start again as we hear from CAG, DAL, and PEP.  Finally, on Friday, BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

In miscellaneous news, more than 2 million residences and businesses in South Texas remain without power last night.  This comes as the forecast is calling for a heat index of 106 degrees for Wednesday.  Elsewhere, House GOP members introduced and passed bills to roll back Energy Dept. energy efficiency standards for both refrigerators and dishwashers.  The obviously political stunt passed along party lines and will die in the Senate.

With that background, it looks as if markets are slightly bullish in the premarket. All three major index ETFs started the early session flat, but have put in white-bodied candles since then with QQQ leading the way as usual. QQQ and SPY are both testing Tuesday’s all-time high at this point. So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched above its T-line. and SPY is pushing its extension. The T2122 indicator is just in the edge of its oversold range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction, but the Bears have much more slack to work with today. (We are in need of rest or pullback in the QQQ and SPY.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green early this morning and the biggest dog, NVDA (+1.49%) leads the way on both price move and volume.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, SPY and QQQ essentially ground sideways while DIA did the same in more of a volatile way.  SPY gapped up 0.13%, QQQ opened 0.07% higher, and DIA gapped up 0.20%.  After that open, SPY and QQQ wobbled sideways never venturing more than 0.20% from the gap.  However, DIA rallied almost 0.60% higher after the open before selling off 0.94% by noon and then ground sideways in a very tight range the rest of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY printed a Doji, QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle, and DIA gave us a black-bodied Spinning Top candle with the large upper wick. All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  SPY and QQQ gave us well below-average volume while DIA printed just average volume.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Technology (+0.41%) leading the way higher. On the other side, Financial Services (-0.14%) was the worst-performing sector, just on the red side of flat.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.24%.  VXX fell 1.82% down to an extremely low 10.27 and T2122 climbed and is now in the center of its mid-range at 47.48.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields was flat at 4.277% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.11% to close at $82.24 per barrel.  So, Monday was mostly a “much ado about nothing” day where the Bulls took SPY and QQQ to new all-time highs and all-time high close.  Meanwhile, the Bulls tried to move DIA higher but were rejected by the Bears, ending up just on the red side of flat. 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday was limited to the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation, which fell strongly to 3.0% from a June reading of 3.2%.  Later, the May Consumer Credit showed significant increase to $11.35 billion (compared to a $10.70 forecast but up sharply from April’s $6.49 billion). 

In stock news, on Monday, Bloomberg reported that MSFT has ordered its Chinese employees to only use iPhones for work as of September.  The internal memo that Bloomberg cited said it was part MSFT’s global security push and a direct result of the GOOGL Play Store not being available in China.  (GOOGL refused to comply with Chinese demands and as a result the Play Store was blocked from the country.  On the other hand, AAPL plays ball with China and has been allowed to operate the AAPL App Store in that country.)  At the same time, PARA and Skydance Media agreed to merge after Skydance acquired 70% of the PARA voting stock when it bought the Redstone family’s National Amusements.  Later, Reuters reported that VSTO rejected the final $3.2 billion buyout offer from MNC Capital for its ammunition manufacturing unit.  However, VSTO did accept an increased bid from a Prague-based Czechoslovak Group for that unit.  At the same time, LLY agreed to buy MORF for $3.2 billion in cash ($57/share).  Meanwhile, GLW raised its Q2 sales forecast and said it expects profits to come in at the top end or exceed the previously announced range.  Later, Reuters reported that US airlines cancelled 1,479 flights and delayed 2,254 more Monday due to Hurricane Beryl.  This included UAL cancelling 405 flights and LUV cancelling 268.  At the same time, WSR Management told shareholders “it is likely there will be a change of control” in the REIT, even though the company had rejected a buyout offer from private MCB Real Estate.  (MCB had offered $14/share, all cash.)  Later, Reuters reported that BCSF is close to reaching a deal to buy ENV, near its current price of $63 per share.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the FIM-CISL union warned that STLA vehicle production in Italy could fall by a third if Italian government incentives to buy STLA cars do not work.  (The union said the impact of incentives are not known yet, but output fell 25% in the first half of the year.)  Later, the Dept. of Transportation announced it had screened 3.01 million passengers on Sunday, the most ever in a single day.  Meanwhile, the UK antitrust regulator approved TMO’s $3.1 billion deal to buy OLK.  After the close, the NTSB said it is investigating a UAL flight of a BA 757-200 jet that lost a wheel from its main landing gear after takeoff from Los Angeles.  After the close, the Dept. of Defense said it is in discussions with the Dept. of Justice before determining the impact of BA’s guilty plea on existing government contracts.  In unrelated news, the FAA ordered the inspection of 2,600 BA 737 jets because the planes passenger oxygen masks may fail during an emergency due to retention strap problems.  (The agency had “requested” the inspections on June 17, but is ordering it now due to non-compliance.)

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Thailand (-0.20%) was lower as Japan (+1.96%), Shenzhen (+1.68%), and Shanghai (+1.26%) led a broad rally in the region.  In Europe, markets are mixed at midday with six exchanges in the green while eight are down and one (Greece) is unchanged.  The CAC (-0.87%), DAX (-0.44%), and FTSE (-0.13%) lead the region on volume as always.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.37% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.299% and Oil (WTI) is down half of a percent to $81.94 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to EAI Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Vice Chair Barr (9:15 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell Testifies before Congress (10 a.m.), Treasury Sec. Yellen (10 a.m.), and Fed Governor Bowman (1:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports set for before the open are limited to HELE.  After the close,  there are no reports of note scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  Fed Chair Powell also continues his testimony and Fed Governor Bowman speaks again.  On Thursday, we get June Core CPI, June CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and June Federal Budget Balance.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PPI, June PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Wednesday, PSMT and WDFC report. On Thursday, earnings start again as we hear from CAG, DAL, and PEP.  Finally, on Friday, BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, HELE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, early Tuesday BP warned of a $2 billion impairment related to a German refinery.  It also cited weak refining margins and poor oil trading execution as reasons for concern.  Elsewhere, CNBC reports that the office space vacancy rate in San Francisco proper has hit a record 34.5% in Q2.  (San Fran has historically been some of the most expensive real estate in the country.)  The report said that to adjust for that the “asking price” for office space has fallen back to 2015 levels.  Meanwhile, the Sun Valley “Summer Camp for Billionaires” kicks off today with the CEOs of AAPL, AMZN, DIS, META, NFLX, PARA, WBD, and Bill Gates as well as Jeff Bezos meet with the CEO of OpenAI in the exclusive Idaho gathering.

With that background, it looks as if markets are set to open higher, but not in a decisive way. All three major index ETFs gapped up modestly to start the premarket. However, they have printed small, indecisive candles with the leader (QQQ) even giving us a black-body so far in the early session. Remember that all three are either at new all-time highs or not far away in the case of DIA. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of them are in the green early this morning. For the second straight day it is INTC (+2.35%) leading that way joined by the biggest dog, NVDA (+1.52%). However, note that the two laggards are led by the second-biggest dog, TSLA (-1.04%) in the premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The markets on Friday started modestly higher and never looked back.  SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA opened 0.08% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.19%. From that point, SPY and QQQ steadily rallied the rest of the day, closing near the highs.  Meanwhile, DIA meandered sideways in waves until 12:45 p.m., when it rallied steadily the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ.  Both printed new all-time highs and ended at new all-time high closes.  At the same time, DIA retested its T-line (8ema) before printing a white-bodied Hammer-type candle that closed above its T-line.  This happened on well below-average volume in all three.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Healthcare (+0.82%), Technology (+0.79%), and Consumer Defensive (+0.78%) leading the way higher. On the other side, Industrials (-0.60%) was by far the worst-performing sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.58%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ gained 1.04%.  VXX actually gained slightly (+0.38%) to a still extremely low 10.46 and T2122 fell but remains in its mid-range at 30.88. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped sharply to 4.277% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.72% to close at $83.28 per barrel.  So, for the traders that showed up Friday (and there weren’t many), it was the Bull’s day from the start.  On a steadily rallying day, the Bears simply never came back, instead opting for a four-day weekend.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, which came in down as expected at +3.9% Year-on-Year (compared to forecast of +3.9% and down from May’s +4.1% reading).  On a Month-on-Month basis, June Avg. Hourly Earnings were also down as expected at +0.3% (versus the +0.3% forecast and down from May’s +0.4% value).  At the same time, June Nonfarm Payrolls were also down but higher than predicted at +206k (compared to a forecast of +191k but down from May’s +218k number).  On the private side, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls were far lower than anticipated at +136k (versus a forecast of +160k and particularly lower than May’s +193k reading).  Note that the prior two months values on Nonfarm Payrolls were revised downward 100k jobs.  At any rate, this gave us a June Unemployment Rate that came at 4.1% (versus a forecast and May value of 4.0%).  This all came on a June Participation Rate of 62.6% (which was in-line with the 62.6% forecast and up a tick from May’s 62.5% reading).

In Fed speak news, on Friday, NY Fed President Williams (well before the employment data release) told an Indian central bank audience that the Fed still has “a ways” to go before reaching their 2% inflation goal.  Williams said, “We have seen significant progress in bringing it down, … But we still have a way to go to reach our 2 percent target on a sustained basis.  We are committed to getting the job done.”  He continued, “We must accept that uncertainty will continue to define the future.” (This last remark was in reference to the fact that economists and analysts simply aren’t able to deliver accurate forecasts of exactly how much time at a given Fed Funds rate or how much quantitative tightening will deliver exactly how much improvement in each of many different inflation and employment metrics.  In other words, Williams was saying its not math, there is a lot of art to central banking.

In stock news, on Friday, SHEL announced it will take a charge of $2 billion related to the sale of a Singapore refinery and halting the construction of a biofuel plant in the Netherlands.  At the same time, Epic Games announced that AAPL has again (for the second time) rejected applications to create a European store for use with Epic iPhone apps.  (European courts and regulators had ordered AAPL to allow this.)  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that JPM has begun warning customers that they need to prepare to pay for checking accounts.  At the same time, CG announced they are in exclusive talks to acquire BAX’s kidney care spinoff unit (Vantive) for more than $4 billion, which includes unspecified debt takeover.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that VYX (NCR) is exploring the sale of its digital banking business, hoping to raise $3 billion.  After the close (and after the reports noted above), AAPL reversed course and approved Epic Games marketplace app for iPhones and iPads.  Elsewhere, KOSS has become the latest meme stock, spiking more than 205% just on Wednesday and Friday.  This comes after social media posters decided that a “Roaring Kitty” post of a picture of a microphone with a US Flag background.  Meme traders took this to mean that Roaring Kitty was leading a short-squeeze play on KOSS around the July 4 holiday.  (The thing that makes this scary is that KOSS doesn’t make microphones, it sells headphones.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the European Commission (acting as Europe’s antitrust regulator) announced that V and MA agreed to extend the caps on their fees on tourist card use through 2029. (The caps are a 0.2% fee on non-EU debit card use and 0.3% fee limit on non-EU credit card settlements.  For “card not present” or online commerce, the fee limits will remain 1.15% for debit cards and 1.5% for credit cards.)  Later, the PSWR announced it had received a subpoena from SEC back in February related to company accounting practices.  At the same time, NVO was given a reprimand from UK regulators for failing to disclose the fees and expenses paid to individual and organizations in the British healthcare sector (who could either use or prescribe NVO products).  Later, a court in Australia fount that PYPL used unfair contracts with small businesses.  At the same time, the European Commission said it had “requested: more information from AMZN on the measures the company has taken to comply with the European Digital Services Act.  (In the past, such requests have led to rulings and might lead to significant fines.) Later, Reuters reported that a trade group representing miners has been strongly lobbying for the revival of the Bureau of Mining (which was closed in 1996).  Perhaps oddly, the business group is claiming that adding a dedicated agency would speed up and streamline mining policy and approvals (at the cost of additional federal jobs).  Meanwhile, a federal judge threw out a central claim of the FTC in the agency’s lawsuit against WMT.  The suit alleges that WMT turned a blind eye to scam artists using its money transfer services to swindle customers out of millions of dollars.  (The ruling rejects the claim that WMT owes monetary damages for violating the federal Telemarketing Sales Rule.) In later-breaking news, early Monday BA decided to plead guilty to fraud related to the two crashes of 737 MAX jets in 2018 and 2019 after violating the 2021 consent decree settlement that had allowed the company from facing prosecution then.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Only Taiwan (+1.37%) and Thailand (+0.80%) were green.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.55%) and Shenzhen (-1.54%) led 10 of the regions 12 exchanges lower.  In Europe, the outlook is much rosier are midday with 11 of the 15 bourses in the region green.  The CAC (+0.215), DAX (+0.34%), and FTSE (+0.21%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:00 a.m., futures point toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.03% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.299% and Oil (WTI) is down more than one percent to $82.29 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and May Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports set for before the open.  However, after the close, HELE  reports (the only report of note).

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get the EAI Short-Term Energy Outlook and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed Vice Chair Barr, Fed Chair Powell Testifies before Congress, and Fed Governor Bowman.  Then on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  Fed Chair Powell also continues his testimony and Fed Governor Bowman speaks again.  On Thursday, we get June Core CPI, June CPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and June Federal Budget Balance.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PPI, June PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, there are no earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday. Then Wednesday, PSMT and WDFC report. On Thursday, earnings start again as we hear from CAG, DAL, and PEP.  Finally, on Friday, BK, C, ERIC, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the UK seated its new Labour Prime Minister and ministers (cabinet) after that party’s landslide victory in Thursday’s election. (Labor won 63%, or 412, of the 650 seats in UK House of Commons. That gives them the biggest majority since Tony Blair’s win in 1997. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, aka Tories, won just 121, a dramatic fall from their previous 365 seats.)  In France, on Sunday, voters rallied to reverse the first round of voting and keep the far-right out of power.  A record turnout (not seen since 1978), gave a significant majority of seats in the parliament to a grand alliance against the far-right in the second, final round. Contrary to the first round of voting, the left-wing New Popular Front took 182 seats (plus another 13 left-wing seats from other parties), President Macron’s centrist Ensemble party took 168 seats, (the alliance of those parties two having well more than the 289 needed to have a majority and elect a leader).  At the same time, the right-wing extremist National Rally was limited to 143 seats (after having been projected at more than twice that number after the first round of voting).  Other parties fill out the remaining 71seats.

In other overseas news, on Friday, reports came out that Hamas had finally agreed to the conditions of the cease fire plan for Gaza that President Biden outlined at the end of May.  However, Israel immediately came back with new conditions and Israeli PM Netanyahu told the press “It should be emphasized that there are still gaps between the sides.” Then on Sunday, Netanyahu doubled down by saying he won’t agree to a cease fire until “Israel has achieved all its military objectives.  Further North, on Friday Russian flunky and Hungarian autocrat Victor Orban visited Moscow and Putin while “uninviting” German Chancellor Scholz from a state visit to Hungary.  In other news, on Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese ecommerce websites Shein and Temu (AMZN and BABA competitors) appear to be growing fast outside of Asian.  They quoted the CEO of DHL (a major airfreight shipper owned by DHLGY) as saying the two companies have grown to take up 30% of cargo space on many shipping routes.  (This is significant because neither company sells perishable or high-value goods typical of air freight.)  In June, this caused Chinese shipping rates to increase 40% as e-commerce bid up airfreight rates and is now causing manufacturers and retailers to buy up space early for upcoming holiday shipments.

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided, sitting here at the all-time highs in SPY and QQQ as well as DIA being less than 2% from its own all-time high. All three major index ETFs opened flat and (at least early) have printed small, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, regardless of your timeframe, the market trend (short-term, mid-term, or longer-term) remains very bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is a bit stretched above its T-line. However, the T2122 indicator remains in the lower end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between gainers and losers in the premarket. INTC (+3.44%) is by far the biggest mover, but TSLA (-0.94%) and NVDA (+0.64%) have traded nine and eight time (respectively) the dollar-volume of stock as INTC in the premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday started off with a Bear trap.  SPY gapped down 0.30%, DIA opened 0.16% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.32%.  However, at that point, SPY and QQQ began a steady all-day rally.  Meanwhile, DIA chopped sideways in the gap until 1 p.m. when it followed the other major index ETFs higher.  All three posted a strong rally into the close.  This action gave us large white-bodied, Marubozu candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and DIA also printed Bullish Engulfing signals.  All three crossed back above their T-line after a retest and SPY and QQQ both gave us new all-time high closes.  This happened on well below-average volume across the board.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Financial Services (+0.92%) out in front leading the way higher.  Communications Services (-0.38%) was the only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.67%, DIA gained 0.47%, and QQQ gained 1.05%.  VXX dropped another 1.14% to a very low 10.37 and T2122 climbed back into the center of its mid-range at 43.09. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.431% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.41% to close at $83.04 per barrel.  So, what we saw on Tuesday seemed like a very low volume pre-holiday rally after a gap down. 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to May JOLTs Job Openings, which came in higher than expected at 8.140 million (compared to a 7.960 million forecast and an April value of 7.919 million).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a huge, unexpected drawdown of 9.163 million barrels (versus a forecasted 0.150-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s 0.914 million inventory build).

In Fed speak news, Fed Chair Powell told a conference that US inflation is now falling again.  Powell said, “I think the last reading … and the one before it to a lesser suggest that we are getting back on the disinflationary path.”  However, Powell indicated the Fed still needs to see more before cutting rates, saying, “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% … before we start … loosening policy.”  He went on to say that, while there is two-sided risk, there is still no need to rush into rate cuts.  Powell said, “Given the strength we see in the economy we can approach the question carefully.” Finally, he concluded with the point that the Fed does not want to wait too long, saying “we don’t want to lose the expansion.”  Elsewhere, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC that he sees some “warning signs” of weakening in the economy.  Goolsbee said, “You only want to stay this restrictive for as long as you have to.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, AAL agreed to a deal to purchase 100 hydrogen-electric engines for its regional jets (made by BDRBF).  (It is unclear how new “green” engines would be fitted onto or approved for use on those regional jets.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that major Japanese insurance companies are planning to sell $3.1 billion of HMC stock.  Later, RIVN shares popped as it reported vehicle deliveries that modestly beat analyst estimates for Q2.  At the same time, TSLA stock gapped up more than 4% after it reported deliveries that exceeded expectation, 443,956 actual versus 439,302 (consensus estimate).  Those deliveries were still down 5%, but better than expected.  At the same time, CONN stock plunged on a Bloomberg report that the company is preparing to file bankruptcy.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg also reported that HOOD is considering offering “crypto futures” to the US and European markets.  (HOOD is hoping to use futures licenses from Bitstamp, a cryptocurrency exchange the company agreed to purchase last month.)  Elsewhere, GM reported slower sales growth in Q2, up just 0.6% from the same quarter in 2023.  However, TM posted strong 9.2% Q2 sales growth in North America. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, President Biden called out NVO and LLY, specifically related to their blockbuster GLP-1 weight loss drugs, in an op-ed article.  Later, interestingly given all of its recent rulings, the US Supreme Court refused to hear a challenge to OSHA regulatory authority from an OH company that had claimed OSHA had exceeded its authority to regulate.  Two of the extreme right justices indicated they wanted to hear the case, but they could not find enough support (4 justices must indicate they want to hear a case for it to be taken up).  Later, the FTC announced it would sue to block the merger between TPX and retailer Mattress Firm as being detrimental to competition.  At the same time, a US Appeals Court threw out a dismissal of an antitrust lawsuit against 10 big banks due to a financial conflict of interest.  (The judge’s wife owned stock in at least one of the banks.)  So, the case against BAC, C, JPM, CS, DB, GS, MS, WFC, NWG, and BCS will proceed.  Later, PGR agreed to pay $48 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging it systematically undervalued wrecked cars to reduce claims paid.  Meanwhile, after the close, the FDA approved LLY’s early Alzheimer’s drug donanemab.  (Donanemab is priced at $32k per year, slightly higher than the only approved competitor.)  Also after the close, both SLB and CHX disclosed they have received a second set of requests for information from the US Dept. of Justice in connection with their $7.75 billion acquisition deal.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.59% and Shanghai (-0.49%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Singapore (+1.41%), Taiwan (+1.28%), and Japan (+1.26%) led the majority of the region higher.  In Europe, with the lone exception of Norway (-0.19%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.63%), DAX (+1.01%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.433% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $82.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes that MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 a.m.), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Services PMI and S&P Global Composite PMI (9:45 a.m.), May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices (10 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  NY Fed President Williams also speaks at 7 a.m.  The major earnings reports set for Tuesday are limited to STZ before the open.  There are no major reports set for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, there are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

So far this morning, STZ missed slightly on revenue while beating handily on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday morning LUV announced it has adopted a “poison pill” policy to fend off activist investor Elliott Management.  IF Elliott were to acquire 12.5% of the LUV stock, all existing shareholders would be allowed to buy an additional share for every share they own…at a 50% discount to the market price.  At the same time, PARA is back in the deal arena as Skydance and Shari Redstone’s National Amusements (which owns 70% of the voting shares of PARA) have reached another “preliminary deal” for Skydance to acquire it.  (They had a preliminary deal in June that fell through and then the two sides walked away.)  The new deal reduces Redstone’s take to $1.75 billion with Skydance acquiring half of PARA voting stock at $15/share ($4.5 billion) and contributing another $1.5 billion toward PARA balance sheet debt.

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided, sitting here at the all-time highs. All three major index ETFs opened flat and have printed small, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. DIA, the laggard, is showing the strongest candle in the early session, but that is hardly a big bull candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again and both the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between gainers and losers in the premarket. NVDA (-0.98%), the biggest dog, is the worst performer but TSLA (+2.10%), the second biggest trader is the strongest performer of the 10.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday gave us a modestly sideways day with little more gain from QQQ than the SPY and DIA.  SPY gapped up 0.28%, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ opened just 0.17% higher.  From there, all three major index ETFs faded the open, reaching the lows of the day mid-morning.  This was followed by a rally that took SPY and DIA back into the morning gap and QQQ across the gap to new highs in early afternoon.  However, all three spend the afternoon grinding sideways.  This action gave us indecisive candles across the board.  QQQ printed a white-bodied, Hammer, Bullish Harami candle which retested its T-line (8ema) and bounced up off the successful test.  At the same time, SPY printed a black-bodied Dragonfly Doji type candle that also retested and remains above its T-line.  DIA gave us a black-bodied, Spinning Top-type candle with a high wick.  However, DIA also retested and passed the test of its T-line from above.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Basic Materials (-0.95%) out in front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (+0.35%) led the four green sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.09%, and QQQ gained 0.58%.  VXX dropped 3.94% to a very low 10.49 and T2122 fell, but again remains in the mid-range, this time just above the oversold territory at 22.15.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.269% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.35% to close at $83.46 per barrel.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  So, Monday really was a was a “much ado about nothing” day for the market.  If you look very closely you can see a 4-5 day very modest rally (particularly in the QQQ).  However, you really have to look to see it.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a tick shy of expectations at 51.6 (compared to a 51.7 forecast but up modestly from the May 51.3 reading).  Later, May Construction Spending was down 0.1% (versus a forecast of +0.3% which was also the April value).  At the same time, the June ISM Mfg. Employment Index was lower than anticipated at 49.3 (compared to a forecast of 50.0 and a May reading of 51.1).  The headline June ISM Mfg. PMI was also lower than predicted at 48.5 (versus a 49.2 forecast and May’s 48.7 number).  The June ISM Mfg. Price Index was lower than expected at 52.1 (compared to a 55.8 estimate and the May 57.0 reading).

In Fed speak news, NY Fed President Williams told a conference Sunday (those comments were not made public until Monday), “I’m confident that we at the Fed are on a path to achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis.” 

In stock news, on Monday, BA agreed to buy SPR for $4.7 billion (all stock) with parts of the supplier going to EADSY (Airbus).  As part of the deal, SPR will pay EADSY $559 million.  At the same time, RACE announced two warranty extension plans that will allow owners of their hybrid models to get battery replacements at particular times (the 8^th and 16^th year of battery life).  Later, UBS announced it had completed it merger (acquisition) of CS in Switzerland.  Meanwhile, DE announced 590 layoffs (280 at an IL plant and 310 at an IA plant), citing declining demand.  At the same time, Reuters reported that AMZN has become the first company to “sidestep” a global standard for verifying carbon offsets.  (This is particularly interesting since AMZN founder Bezos was the founder and Chair of the group that created the standard.)  AMZN claims they still support the standard for verification as a model, but want a new, higher standard.  Later, EADSY announced its plane deliveries rose 2% in the first half of 2024 to 323, including 67 planes in June.  At the same time, BLK announced it will buy British company UK Data Group for $3.23 billion in cash.  Later, GS reported that, during June, global hedge funds sold shares of technology, media and telecom companies at the fastest pace since 2016.  However, GS said this trend (three straight months of such selling) was almost entirely driven by short sellers targeting the all-time highs.  After the close, shareholders of CRM voted to reject the CEO (and other executive’s) compensation plans.  However, the vote is not binding on board action.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, BMY agreed to pay $2.7 million to settle an Israeli anti-trust case over blocking a generic version of its cancer drug Imnovid.  At the same time, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of a ND convenience store, reinstating its lawsuit against the Fed over a 2011 regulation allowing credit card companies (V and MA) to charge “swipe fees” per transaction up to a maximum $0.21 each.  Following the court throwing out the Chevron Deference, this will be one of the new suits that will challenge agency’s authority to regulate.  Later, Reuters reported that anti-trust regulators in France are set to charge NVDA over anti-competitive practices.  At the same time, Keith Gill (known as “Roaring Kitty”) was sued by GME investors who allege they lost money due to him running a “pump-and-dump” scheme on the stock. Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that part of the new Biden Administration student debt relief plan may resume, reversing an injunction issued by a judge in KS. 

Elsewhere, the US Supreme Court punted on cases involving GOP-led states ability to regulate social media.  The court unanimously held that the lower courts had not adequately assessed the impact of the laws in question impact on the social media company’s first amendment rights.  The ruling cast doubt on the TX law (which a lower court had upheld) prohibiting moderation by META, GOOGL, and SNAP among others.  Later, the SEC sued SICP for securities fraud, alleging the crypto-focused company misleads investors about bank secrecy and anti-money laundering compliance programs.  Separately, SICP agreed to pay $63 million to settle probes of the company’s compliance lapses.  At the same time, a federal judge blocked a MS law that required users of social media platforms to verify ages and restricted access by minors without parental consent.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly in the red.  Japan (+1.12%) and Singapore (+0.88%) were by far the biggest gainers while Shenzhen (-0.97%) and South Korea (-0.84%) led the more numerous losers.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly red with Russia (+1.39%) the only noteworthy gainer12 of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (-0.83%), DAX (-0.99%), and FTSE (-0.32%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:00 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.31% open, the SPY is implying a -0.36% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.46% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.45% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.73% to $83.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to May JOLTs Job Openings (10 a.m.) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  However, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9:30 a.m.  The major earnings reports set for Tuesday are limited to Tuesday MSM, PSNY, and RDUS before the open.  There are no major reports set for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks.  On Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, STZ reports.  There are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday the Supreme Court put Presidents above the law for their Article Two powers.  In addition, it gave Presidents a presumptive immunity for all other acts that could be construed as “official” even at the outside limits of their duties.  So, Trump is immune from prosecution for threatening and strong-arming state election officials or calling on his Dept. of Justice to declare an election was fraudulent sans evidence, or take millions of dollars in exchange for a pardon.  However, perhaps most importantly, SCOTUS also put major hurdles on both bringing prosecution of a President (prosecution must first prove bringing such a case would not interfere with the independence or functioning of the executive branch of government) and then tied the hands behind the back of prosecution by saying no evidence can come from a President or their Administration members “official duties” including communications and documents. This means that America is now dependent on the honor, decency, and goodwill of Presidents to not abuse power.  That is a very terrifying prospect given the proven character of the current Republican candidate.

In other news, the headline Euro zone inflation fell to 2.5%.  However, the Euro zone core inflation stayed at 2.9%, missing analyst estimates of 2.8%.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms such as JPM are telling clients to position for a potential Trump win in November.  They are telling clients that would cause inflation to last longer and result in higher long-term bond yields.  In the short end of the curve, they are telling clients to take profits now on the shorter-dated bonds.  This could be at least a partial cause of the very recent rising low duration bond yields.

With that background, it looks as if markets are signaling a down day. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed black-bodied candles since that point. They have all crossed below their T-line (8ema) on this action. However, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is now modestly bearish. On the other hand, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is at the bottom of its mid-range, it is still not in oversold territory. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the red this morning. The biggest dogs, NVDA (-1.04%), TSLE (-1.42%), and AMD (-1.01%) are leading tech and the market lower at least early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday gave us a modestly higher open.  SPY and QQQ both gapped up 0.15%, while DIA opened 0.05% lower.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied hard for 45 minutes (SPY and QQQ) or 75 minutes in DIA.  This took the SPY and QQQ to new all-time highs.  However, this was a Bull trap as the rug was pulled out from under the market and we saw a strong and steady selloff all the way until 3:35 p.m.  Only a modest bounce during the last 30 minutes kept them from closing on the lows.  This action gave us large, indecisive, black-bodied Spinning Top type candles in SPY, QQQ, and DIA.  SPY and QQQ were also Bearish Engulfing of the prior candle while DIA was a Bearish Harami compared to the prior candle body.  All three retested their T-line (8ema) with QQQ and DIA remaining just above while SPY crossed just below following the test. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-0.58%) out in front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (+0.89%) led the four gaining sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.39%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.52%.  VXX climbed just over one percent to close at a still very low 10.92 and T2122 climbed again, but remains in the center of its mid-range at 61.69.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.384% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to close at $81.52 per barrel.  So, Friday was a volatile day that saw a strong early run met with a sustained selling that only ended with some short-covering.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume in SPY, average volume in QQQ, and slightly above-average volume in DIA.

Friday was also month and quarter end.  For June, SPY gained 3.20%, DIA gained 0.93%, and QQQ gained 6.30%.  Over Q2, SPY gained 4.04%, DIA lost 1.67%, and QQQ 7.91%.  So, as has been the case all year, QQQ and SPY lead (mostly on the strength of the AI trade led by NVDA), while the much less techie DIA followed.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included May Core PCE Price Index, which was down as expected at +0.1% (month-on-month) compared to a +0.1% forecast and April’s +0.3%.  On the Year-on-Year basis, the May Core PCE Price Index was +2.6% (right on the 2.6% forecast and down from April’s +2.8% reading).  The headline on a Month-on-Month basis the May PCE Price Index was also down as predicted at +0.0% (versus a 0.0% forecast and down from April’s +0.3% number).  On the Year-on-Year basis, May PCE Price Index was +2.6%, right on the +2.6% forecast and down a tick from April’s +2.7%.  At the same time, May Personal Spending was up a tick, but below what was anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April’s +0.1% value).  Later, the June Chicago PMI was significantly stronger than was expected at 47.4 (versus a 39.7 forecast and May’s 35.4 reading).  Then, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was down but a bit higher than predicted at 68.2 (compared to a 65.6 forecast and May’s 69.1 value). On the future prospects side, Michigan Consumer Expectations were up slightly to 69.6 (versus a 67.6 forecast and May’s 68.8 reading).  Further out, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down strongly to 3.0%, versus the 3.3% forecast and prior reading.  On the longer-term, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also 3.0% (better than the 3.1% forecast and the same as the prior month’s 3.0%).

The most important thing that happened Friday was another (terrible) Supreme Court ruling that was a massive win for corporations and big money in the aptly named case “Relentless v. Dept. of Commerce.”  The decision wiped out the 40-year-old “Chevron Deference,” which had held that Congress is incapable of writing perfectly detailed and crystal-clear laws.  In addition, Courts are not subject experts and are likewise unable to devine either the intent or understand and decide the nuances and issues that are involved.  So, under the previous Chevron Deference, if there was a question of nuance or implementation of an aspect of the law, the courts would defer to the interpretation of the experts at the Federal agency in charge of applying that law.  This new ruling throws that out, saying the courts will decide all such issues (or, theoretically, Congress could revisit every law and repass new revisions every time somebody tries to challenge an aspect of the law). On one hand, this decision is a huge, full-employment jobs program for lawyers. More importantly, it is a license to challenge any and every aspect of regulation that is not clearly and explicitly set out in law.  (If there is any possible way to interpret a law differently than federal agencies have interpreted it in the past, it is now up to a court to decide how it should be construed.)  This drastically reduces the power of the Federal government and means that the courts will decide vastly more of the issues regulating business and personal behavior at the expense of real expertise or speed.  So, a ton of guardrails just got removed from food and drug safety, environmental protection, labor protection, etc. and the world just got much slower. Meanwhile, money got more powerful and the courts just got much, much busier.  This was a huge win for those who want less (or no) regulation.  It was also a huge defeat for anyone who does not trust businesses to ALWAYS do the right thing and act in the best interest of society.  Another outcome is that a lot more of the federal budget will be spent on litigation.

In stock news, on Friday BA (and NASA) again delayed the possible return trip of the company’s Starliner spacecraft.  The announcement said the problems with the BA spacecraft will require at least a “couple more weeks” of testing by engineers before it can be determined if it is safe to attempt the return trip.  In another classic “own goal” the BA executive on the conference call announcing the decision to reporters criticized the press for reports saying the two astronauts in the Starliner crew were stuck in space.  This led to NASA confirming that if worse comes to worse, they can launch a SpaceX (BA rival) mission to retrieve the crew.  Elsewhere, CNBC reported that F now expects to sell a $30k electric vehicle that is profitable within 2.5 years.  On Saturday, AMZN announced it is doubling the free cloud service credits (to $200k) that is gives to startups.  The move comes in an effort to better compete with MSFT, which is making gains in cloud computing market share. Elsewhere, on Sunday US prosecutors met with BA and families of BA crash victims from 2018 and 2019.  The topic of discussion was on whether the US will prosecute BA for violating their consent decree that allowed them to avoid prosecution over those two crashes.  The contention is that the company did not change and improve quality after the consent decree given the many revelations of the last year or so.  On Sunday evening, CNBC reported that the Dept. of Justice is now seeking a guilty plea from BA over the matter. There was no reply from BA when asked for comment.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NTSB and FAA announced they are investigating a LUV flight that took off from a closed airport in ME.  At the same time, EU antitrust regulators announced they will release their decision on the HPS $14 billion acquisition of JNPR by August 1.  Later, the US Dept. of Energy said they are bidding to buy $2.7 billion of domestically-supplied uranium to boost the US nuclear energy supply chain.  This will benefit LEU and a British/Dutch company (Urenco) with uranium mining operations in NM.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has opened a recall inquiry into more than 120k HMC Ridgeline trucks over failures of the rearview cameras.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Australia (-0.22%) and Thailand (-0.12%) fell below break-even while Shanghai (+0.92%), Shenzhen (+0.57%), and India (+0.55%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.46%) seems to love first round election results while the DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (+0.27%) are also leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start as well.  The DIA implies a +0.18% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are spiking again up to 4.412% and Oil (WTI) is up another two-thirds of a percent to $82.05 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), May Construction Spending, June ISM Mfg. Employment, June ISM Mfg. PMI, and June ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports set for Monday either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get May JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, and Fed Chair Powell speaks (9:30 a.m.).  Then Wednesday, MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks.  On Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from MSM, PSNY, and RDUS.  Then Wednesday, STZ reports.  There are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported it has seen an unpublished government report that claims the lithium market is about to change.  Even with huge deposits and despite massive investment from outside the country, Argentina has only had one lithium mine come online in the last 10 years.  However, the report cited by Bloomberg claims that four new lithium mines will come online in Argentina in the next few weeks to months.  This will nearly double the production capacity of that fourth-largest lithium producing country.  Elsewhere, early Monday an SEC filing showed that social media poster (leader of the meme stock movement) has taken a 6.6% ownership position in CHWY. (This confirms the huge volatility caused by his cryptic posting of a dog picture Thursday.)

In foreign election news, polls released Saturday show the UK is headed for its first Labor government since 2010.  With the election set for July 4, the Labor Party is at 40%, the current-government Conservatives are at 20% (and falling), and the Reform Party is at 17%.  Across the English Channel, the first round of the French election took place Sunday.  The far-right National Rally party won 34%, the left-wing New Popular Front won 28.1%, and President Macron’s centrist Ensemble party came in third at 20.3%.  All other parties will be eliminated in next Sunday’s second and final round of voting.  So, between now and next week, the fight will be on to capture the 17%-18% of votes that were cast for parties eliminated yesterday.  (It is worth noting that in just-dissolved Parliament, Macron’s party only had 43% of the seats.  So, he was a coalition President even in the last Parliament.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are starting the premarket modestly stronger. All three major index ETFs retested their T-line in the early session but have made modest moves up off that retest. It is worth noting that SPY and QQQ have printed indecisive Spinning Top-type candles so far this morning. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is modestly bullish. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range. Therefore, the market has plenty of room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. However, the biggest dog of all, NVDA (-1.10%) is one of the two laggards.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets started out just on the red side of flat.  SPY opened 0.03% lower, DIA opened 0.15% lower, and QQQ opened 0.04% lower.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in waves ranging from up half a percent to down a third of a percent.  The most notable move of the day was the late-day rally on the final up wave.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles (some form of a Spinning Top) in all three.  SPY and DIA both retested their T-line (8ema) from above and passed by bouncing up off that line.  However, it should be noted that all three of the major index ETFs traded at far less than half of their 50-day average volume. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.49%) leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.38%) was the laggard and only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.26%.  VXX fell another 0.64% to close at 10.81 and T2122 climbed again, this time closing right in the center of its mid-range at 52.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.286% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.19% to close at $81.86 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a very low volume and just on the bullishly indecisive day where it looks like traders were either holding off until after the Presidential Debate or PCE data release.  (Or maybe traders have already left for a very long holiday break.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly lower than expected at 233k (compared to a forecast of 236k and a previous week value of 239k).  In terms of ongoing claims, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than predicted at 1,839k (versus a 1,820k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k reading).  At the same time, May Core Durable Goods Orders were down at -0.1% month-on-month, compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the April +0.4% reading.  For the headline number, May Durable Goods Orders (again, month-on-month) were down but higher than anticipated at +0.1% (versus the -0.5% forecast but down from April’s +0.2% value).  Meanwhile, Q1 Core PCE Prices were higher than expected at +3.70% (compared to the +3.60% forecast and sharply higher than April’s +2.00% value).  At the same time, Q1 GDP was stronger than was predicted at +1.4% (versus a +1.3% forecast but down as expected from Q4’s +3.4%).  In terms of Q1 GDP Price Index, it came in exactly as predicted at +3.1% (compared to a +3.1% forecast and the Q4 +1.7%).  Elsewhere, the Preliminary May Goods Trade Balance was a bit worse than anticipated at -$100.62 billion (versus the -$96.00 billion forecast and -$99.41 billion April reading).  At the same time, Preliminary May Retail Inventories were lower than April at +0.0% (compared to April’s +0.2% number).  In the housing market, May Pending Home Sales well lower than predicted at -2.1% (versus a forecast of +0.6% but far, far better than April’s -7.7%).  Then after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet fell significantly, down $22 billion for the week, to $7.231 trillion from the prior week’s $7.253 trillion.

In terms of Fed speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Thursday that he expects one rate cut in 2024 and as many as four cuts in 2025. As all Fed speakers, Bostic hedged, saying, “There are plausible scenarios in which more cuts, no cuts, or even a raise could be appropriate. I will let the data and conditions on the ground be my guide.”  At the same time, Fed Governor Bowman spoke again, continuing her recent statements that she is not ready to cut rates until data more clearly shows inflation is falling.  She said, “we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”  Bowman added, “Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.” 

After the close, NKE missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  Both were significant with a 3% miss on revenue and a 18.8% beat on earnings.  It is also worth noting that NKE also lowered forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday BP announced they have halted hiring and is slowing the rollout of renewable energy (offshore wind) projects in a bid to win over investors.  At the same time, NYCB said it expects to do a one-for-three reverse stock split in mid-to-late July.  (No specific date was announced.)  Later, WMT announced it has added NKLA hydrogen fuel-celled semi-trucks to its Canadian fleet.  (This comes less than two months after reported that WMT was not receiving the TSLA semi-trucks it had ordered due to production delays.)  After the close, NOK announced it will acquire INFN in a $2.3 billion deal ($6.65 per share, a 26.4% premium on INFN’s Thursday close price).  Meanwhile, ILMN announced it will take a $1.47 billion “goodwill” charge related to its forced spinoff of Grail.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that MSFT has begun informing its customers that a Russian state-sponsored hacking group had breached their internal systems, including emails.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention narrowed the recommendation for the use of RSV vaccines.  GSK, PFE, and MRNA are the drug companies in that market.  GSK got crushing in its home British market, falling 7%.  Meanwhile, UBER and LYFT agreed to pay $175 million to settle a lawsuit over classifying drivers as contractors.  (The news came shortly after the MA Supreme Court ruled that a fall vote will let voters decide whether drivers are contractors or employees.)  At the same time, the FCC Chair (Rosenworcel) demanded that T, VZ, CMCCSA and other cable and telecom companies report their efforts to stop fraudulent political robocalls and other AI-generated political mis-information. Later, Federal regulators FERC voted 2-to-1 to approve a new LNG plant in LA state.  The move clears the way for the private “Venture Global” to become the second largest LNG exporter in the US behind LNG (Cheniere).  At the same time, the NTSB once again had to sanction BA (and said it would refer the matter to the Dept. of Justice) this time over the company’s misrepresentations and illegal release of partial undisclosed investigative information (which had tried to attribute the January 5 ALK mid-air door blowout to “lost paperwork” in an attempt to downplay company quality issues).  Once again, BA responded with a meaningless public apology. 

Elsewhere, the ultra-Republican Supreme Court blocked the EPA from regulating ozone emissions that may worsen air pollution in neighboring states.  The ruling in favor of KMI and three GOP-led states will prohibit the EPA from regulating smog-producing ozone emissions from power plants and steel furnace operations.  Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that META must face a class-action lawsuit alleging it prefers foreign workers over American citizens (because it can pay lower wages and have more docile employees when the threat of losing US residency is tied up in the employment agreement.  At the same time, in a quite surprising 5-4 decision, the US Supreme Court threw out the opioid settlement with Purdue Pharmaceuticals that had been meant to resolve the bankruptcy of the company.  Without specifically attacking the practice, this decision will make it harder for companies to use the “Texas Two-Step” process to avoid liability by declaring bankruptcy and making the waiver of liability part of the settlement agreement with creditors (plaintiffs).  (MMM and JNJ are major companies trying to use that process now to avoid liabilities.)  After the close, BAC, GS, JPM, C, MS, UBS, DB, BCS, BNPQY, and NWG settled a long-running antitrust lawsuit for rigging the $465.9 trillion interest rate swaps market.  As usual, the ten banks were not forced to admit wrongdoing and will pay only $46 to $71 million.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with seven of the region’s 12 exchanges in the green.  Shanghai (+0.73%), Japan (+0.61%), and Taiwan (+0.55%) paced the larger gainer group.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (-0.99%) and Thailand (-0.65%) led the losing exchanges.  In Europe, markets are much greener at midday with 11 of 15 bourses above break-even.  The CAC (-0.31%), DAX (+0.62%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.304% and Oil (WTI) is up almost a percent to $82.51 per barrel in early trade. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, and May Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), June Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at noon.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday it was announced that North Korea will send troops to Ukraine to support Russia within a month.  Reportedly, Russia claims these troops will be engineering units that will free up more Russian troops (for their typical “meat wave” assault tactics).  However, Pentagon spokesman told the press that the US expects the troops to be “cannon fodder,” meaning they expect the North Koreans to be part of combat operations.  Most analysts expect this announcement to be yet another Putin gambit to get the West to self-restrict by not sending troops to train AFU (Ukraine military) troops and take over border patrol duties from Ukrainian troops.

In other news, most snap analysis of last night’s Presidential debate indicate that Biden performed poorly, reinforcing his “age problem” by not coming across as strong (in the sense of physical vigor as potentially indicated by a forceful voice).  On the other side, as usual ex-President Trump lied non-stop.  Fact-checkers found 30 lies or misleading statements by Trump during his share of the 90-minute event.  Still, most see it as a victory for Trump.

With that background, it looks as if markets (or at least the broader indices) are starting the premarket stronger. SPY and QQQ gapped up to start the premarket and had printed small white-body candles since that start. For its part, DIA has reacted much more modestly with a slight open higher in the early session and giving us a small, indecisive, white-bodied candle since then. lower. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is modestly bullish. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has plenty of room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning. Only GOOGL (-0.16%) is in the red early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.91%) and the second-biggest, TSLA (+1.12%) are leading the rest of the market higher early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day modestly lower.  SPY gapped down 0.20%, DIA gapped down 0.23%, and QQQ started off 0.20% lower at the open.  From that point, all three major index ETFs spent the rest of the day meandering sideways.  Only SPY ended on a short spurt to close bear the highs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three as DIA printed a Spinning Top that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ printed larger-body white candles with small upper wicks.  Both of them retested their T-line from above and bounced up off to close above.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three, especially the DIA.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclicals (+0.63%) leading the gainers higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (-0.43%) and Financial Services (-0.41%) led the laggard sectors lower.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.21%.  VXX fell another 1.09% to close at 10.88 and T2122 gained a bit but remains in the lower half of its mid-range at 34.04.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.325% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly (-0.21%) to close at $80.66 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was another “wait and see” day where markets basically treaded water while waiting on GDP or the Presidential Debate (or more likely PCE data on Friday). 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included Building Permits, which came in a bit higher than expected at 1.399 million (compared to a forecast of 1.386 million but below the last 1.440 million reading).  Later, May New Home Sales were lower than predicted at 619k (versus the 636k forecast and well down from the April 698k value).  Then the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected large inventory build of 3.591 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.600 million barrels and the prior week’s 2.547-million-barrel drawdown). 

Then after the close, the results of the Annual Fed Bank Stress Tests were announced.  The Fed said that all 31 banks passed the tests, even withstanding a hypothetical severe economic downturn.  However, the banks tested this year showed that they would have larger (but still sustainable) losses under this year’s scenarios than the very similar 2023 scenarios.  The Fed announcement said the largest banks would see 9.9% dips in “high-quality capital” at the worst point of this year’s harshest scenario.

Also after the close, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LEVI and MLKN both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  BB is of special note.  BB had a massive miss on revenue but still beat (by 175%) on the earnings line.

In stock news, on Wednesday, AIG sold its travel insurance unit to ZURVY (Zurich Insurance) for $600 million.  Later, Reuters reported (exclusively) that German firm Robert Bosch is considering a takeover bid for WHR according to three sources.  (WHR was up 17.10% on the day on this report.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that B is exploring “strategic alternatives” including a sale of the company.  (B stocks was up 7.63% on the news.)  During the day, AMZN passed the $2 trillion valuation mark, becoming just the fifth company to do so.  (Analysts attribute the climb to AI mania, but that does not really explain Wednesday’s 3.91% gain to a level not far above the May and April highs.)  After the close, Reuters reported that CG and KKR have won the auction to acquire the $10 billion student loan portfolio from DFS.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NYSE denied the claims of IBKR, which resulted in the brokerage losing $48 million.  (IBKR had tried to get NYSE to pay for trade executions IBKR made when BRKA dropped from $622k/share to $185/share on June 3, prior to the BRKA stock being halted due to erroneous data. At the same time, the NHTSA announced that TM is recalling 145k vehicles over side curtain air bad issues.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce awarded a $75 million grant to ENTG as part of the Chips Act program. (The money will go toward development of a new ENTG facility in CO.    At the same time, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 307k vehicles in North America over an airbag sensor wiring problem.  Later, Bloomberg reported that VLVLY (Volvo) will delay shipments of its EX30 electric vehicle due to the higher tariffs the US has imposed on Chinese imports.  As a result, VLVLY won’t deliver these cars until 2025 (previously scheduled for late summer to early fall).  Eventually, Volvo will begin producing the cars in Belgium during 2025, which will allow it to avoid the higher tariffs by shipping to the US from that location instead of the China plant.  After the close, MO filed a request to the FDA to authorize it to sell nicotine pouch products in the US.  Also after the close, Republican state AGs refused to accept any increase in NHTSA CAFÉ (mileage) standards on car makers.  The Biden administration’s watered-down 2% per year increase (only starting in 2026) has “forced” those state AGs to file suit against the NHTSA for exceeding its regulatory authority.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Hong Kong (-2.06%) and Shenzhen (-1.53%) were way out in front pacing the losses.  Meanwhile only India (+0.74%) and Singapore (+0.35%) were in the green in the region.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed but still leans to the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.67%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (-0.31%) lead the region on volume.  However, Russia (+1.39%) is the biggest European mover in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.329% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $81.19 per barrel in early trade.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q1 GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, and May Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), and May Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AYI, MKC, and WBA.  Then after the close, NKE reports.    

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the US Dollar hit a 38-year high against the Yen.  (Speculation continued to ramp that the Bank of Japan will intervene to make the Yen stronger soon as BoJ currency chief Kanda said they were “seriously concerned and on high alert”.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the SEC could well approve ETFs based on the spot price of ether cryptocurrency to begin trading as soon as after the July 4 holiday.

So far this morning, MKC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AYI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WBA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  IT is worth noting that WBA also lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if markets are starting the premarket modestly lower. All three major index ETFs have retested their T-lines again in the early session and so far all have remains above that 8ema on small white-bodied candles. However, those candles are indecisive and did start off from a modest gap down in the early session. Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only AAPL (+0.37%) and AMZN (+0.30%) are in the green early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (-1.65%) is the biggest mover and biggest loser of the group this morning, acting as an anchor on the rest of the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service